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Wings Over Scotland

The others

Posted on May 18, 2014 by

Referendum polls now seem to be arriving on a daily basis, but this morning sees the appearance of two that offer some rather striking contrasts in more than one sense.

The less interesting, despite showing a remarkable swing of 5% to the No side, is an ICM one for Scotland on Sunday, which the paper gets predictably excited about and illustrates with an extreme close-up of a No activist with his face plastered in “Better Together” stickers (despite the man seeming to be in his 50s) and contorted into a provocative, mocking sneer.


The more unsettling one, however, is in the Sunday Times.

It’s got nothing to do with the numbers in the Panelbase-conducted poll, which are essentially identical to the company’s last one and show a No lead of just seven points (backing up analyst James Kelly’s suggestion that the ICM figures are more likely to be a result of margin-of-error variance than any dramatic shift in opinion).

It’s not even the fact that the Sunday Times poll shows a majority of Scottish-born voters backing independence, by 44% to 42%, which may be a first.

Rather, it’s the fact that we know that fact at all.

Because the paper goes in heavily on the discovery that it’s English-born voters living in Scotland who are responsible for the No camp’s lead. While those born in Scotland now narrowly favour Yes, the views of English-born people living in Scotland (and therefore eligible to vote in the referendum) are overwhelmingly No to the extent that even though English-born voters are only around 9% of the Scottish population, they cause a large swing that turns that two-point Yes lead into a seven-point No one.

In case anyone misses it, two separate substantial articles highlight the statistic, under the headlines “English votes may kill off independence” and one even more strikingly titled “English army scents victory”, including a picture of Mel Gibson in “Braveheart” which has been altered to paint a St George’s Cross on his face.


Both articles feature two of the same quotes, both of them curiously ambiguous. Firstly, referendum expert Matt Qvortrup initially appears to say that there WOULDN’T be an increase in ethnic tension were the result to pan out in such a manner, and then seems to immediately contradict himself:

“There are some concerns that the effect of English votes in potentially making the difference between success or failure for the Yes campaign could lead to increased tensions in the event of a narrow No vote.

A similar scenario occurred in Quebec in 1995 when the English-speaking minority helped secure a slender No victory of less than 1%. The Canadian province was riven with bitterness in the aftermath as a result.

However, Matt Qvortrup — author of Referendums and Ethnic Conflict — said that the all-inclusive civic nationalism of the SNP, as opposed to the ethnic nationalism of the Quebecois, is likely to temper any backlash should a minority of English voters swing the vote in favour of the union.

‘It’s not nasty like that in Scotland and everybody can accept that,” he said. ‘But even the people who were fair-minded about it in Quebec, when pressed about it, felt cheated. The implications were so great and it divided families and it really turned nasty.’

Then psephologist Professor John Curtice says something very unfortunate:

“If it were merely about how Scottish people feel, Scotland would have been independent years ago.”

Perhaps when spoken down the phone, the meaning of those words was clear. But in print it can be read in two significantly different ways: “if it were merely about how Scottish people feel”, and “if it were merely about how Scottish people feel”.

We can only guess as to why the Sunday Times bothered to ask the ethnic origin of its respondents, something we’re not aware of anyone having done before. Perhaps it was just innocently looking for a new angle in a market that’s now stuffed with opinion polls. But the effect, and the focus of the resulting coverage, is rather disturbing.

It’s hard to see how the findings could cause anything but resentment. And while the independence debate has thus far been pretty vitriolic, to the evident frustration of the No camp it’s been almost entirely bereft of ugly anti-English sentiment, forcing them to constantly try to fabricate it from the slimmest of material.

Any outbreak of anger against English-born voters in Scotland arising from the figures would play right into the hands of “Better Together”, and the media could be expected to hype it for all it was worth.

On the other hand, it might backfire and make English-born residents who oppose independence become wary of voting at all, fearing – with justification or otherwise – unpleasant repercussions in the event of a close No result.

(Because the figures are so stark, at 66% against and just 27% for, that there”ll be an assumption that anyone with an English accent voted No whether they did or not.)

Either way, the Sunday Times seems to us to be playing with fire. Even if its intentions were entirely honourable, this site hopes that the ethnic question isn’t asked again. No possible good can come of it.

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    1. 02 06 14 15:15

      English Scots for YES

    162 to “The others”

    1. bmc875 says:

      I am sure the BBC Scotland’s favourite ‘Journalist’, Angus McTimes, will be on hand at 9 to explain all.

    2. wilma mcewan says:

      most English ppl here I know cannot Understand WHY WE WOUD SAY NO,ON THIS I FULLY AGREE

    3. AllyBally says:

      In his 50s my arse. If he is he must have had a hard paper run.

    4. Is the better together photo meant to look like someone’s holding up 2 fingers with those fliers? Good to see they have someone helping with flyers now. If the V’s is what they think will enrage us then they’ll need to try harder, it’s time we set up a fundraiser to provide free cross border bus fares for all age groups, one way of course for the week after September 18th.

    5. Ich bin ein Ing-eerlandeer says:

      And always will be. Scotland my home however. Economic shite is coming either way but I want to live in a more humane society in my old age. I’m a YES man and I know similar English born moving from straight knows into undecided territory – let’s work for it and see what happens on the day – in fact let’s work like f*** for it, flat out until the day!

    6. Tamson says:

      My own experience doesn’t reflect that polling: most English-born people I know are Yes, indeed they are some of the most fervent Yes supporters I know.

    7. MD says:

      Irresponsible ‘journalism’. Plan to see more along these lines rather than less.

      My English friends, including those in England, mostly back Yes. Some of them very actively. The more interesting question is why are so many, if the poll is to be believed, planning to vote No.

    8. Dinnatouch says:

      I know a couple of people who were born in England who will be voting No in September. In both cases, I believe that their choices have been made because of the scaremongering over borders and families perpetrated by the No campaign and the media.

      No matter what the outcome of the vote, I will not be holding their ethnicity against them. If they vote No, the failing is with me for not countering the Unionist scare stories.

    9. Taranaich says:

      I cannot understand how this works: how can 6% of the sample (presuming that this was entirely proportional to English-born Scots sampled in the poll) result in a 9% shift? Either I’m as bad at maths as I thought, or something doesn’t add up.

    10. Cyberniall says:

      Is that the same Sunday Times that says the top 1000 UK richest have doubled their wealth in the last 5 years? 64 of those super rich have the same net worth as the poorest 30% in the UK.

      If only Gary Barlow and the rest of these millionaires (and Billionaires) stopped avoiding paying their taxes.

    11. Nigel says:

      I have encountered more from south of the border who are voting Yes, not No. They moved to Scotland to improve their quality of life and they see that voting No does not fit that objective.

      On the other side of the coin, when I am out and about with leaflets, the folk most vehemently and sometimes abusively for No are Scots. Usually older Scots who have voted Labour all their lives. I had one yesterday who said I was lying over the Standard and Poor assessment of Scotland and it was the UK that got the higher classification, not Scotland. The problem is, he’s out campaigning and telling that lie on the door step, amongst others, I suppose.

      Interestingly enough, he could not answer any of my hard and direct questions about the BT campaign and showed his need for anger management counseling most of the time. He was pretty abusive and all from one who would normally be seen as a respectable member of our community.

    12. Griminish says:

      Could someone explain the maths of the Times article to me; it doesn’t stack up.

      90% Scots : 10% English
      44% of 90% is around 40% YES
      42% 0f 90% is around 38% NO

      27% of 10% is around 3% YES
      66% of 10% is around 7% NO

      To me it would appear very close and not 7% points difference. Where am I going wrong?

    13. cath says:

      I no longer believe polls at all – to the extent I ever did. Since the #publishthepoll thing it’ obvious Westminster needs a poll boost. And whatever Westminster needs, the polling companies and media will provide.

      As to the ethnic stuff, pure evil. They know exactly what they’re doing and there is no level to which they won’t sink including manufacturing violence. I suspect that will be their next stage.

    14. Les Wilson says:

      This is a sinister turn of events, and as usual media lead.
      For so many reasons they should, stop this line immediately. To deliberately try and cause racial issues where none exist is a very dangerous ploy, in order to try and improve the NO chances.They really need to think again and be responsible.

      O/T Went early this morning for the Sunday Herald, to the local “Scotmid”. All papers neatly laid out in their piles.
      However, NO Sunday Herald. I asked the guy at the counter why no ST, he said the had not delivered them for some reason. I asked when they would be in, he said he had no idea, the just said the would send them but he did not know when. John Menzies delivers them.I said to the guy that it seemed odd one paper not being delivered, yes, it is, he said.
      Others experiencing the same thing, if they do, John Menzies need to be asked if this is a one off or a new policy against the SH. Easy black opps tactic to prevent sales?

    15. Cyberniall says:

      It’s amazing how one face can make the difference between a disgraceful ukip leaflet getting media attention and a Better Together leaflet getting none.

    16. cath says:

      As to English born voters, most I know are yes. I have one no citing English friend but she knows nothing at all about the arguments and isn’t interested – it’s entirely knee-jerk. I’m sure she can and will be convinced by facts before September.

    17. Alt Clut says:

      The stated intentions of English born voters has been a potential ‘weapon of crass destruction’ for the gutter media for some time. I’d kept hoping that it would just go away as ‘YES’ pushed past the statistical area in which that section of the vote could be a decisive factor.

      As the issue is made more widely known we enter a dangerous stage. We can’t depend on the integrity of editors on this one any more than we can depend on it on any other issue. They don’t care HOW unionism wins, stirring up Scots/English tensions will be as good as any other way to many of them.

      The only answer to this is the usual one – campaign harder so that we can push past this zone, and move fast to quell any thoughts among YES supporters that English born voters are enemies. I don’t know anyone in our group who thinks like that but we have to squash it immediately anywhere that it does emerge.

      If we can gain just a few more percentage points then it wont matter. This really is a case of “Keep Calm and Carry On”.

    18. frankieboy says:

      MSM in conjunction with the State broadcaster will use every divisive claim in the book to secure a NO vote. Sometimes it will be obvious sometimes it will be subtle but they know exactly what they are doing. I studied Soviet propaganda at university. Even though people said they didn’t believe a word of it, they swallowed it, albeit grudgingly or even unconsciously. It works. The trick is to give people other things to read instead. Otherwise, they lap it up or stop reading anything at all. Thanks Stu and Newsnet Scotland and others for doing a great job.

    19. David Robertson says:

      The Sunday Times can go fuck itself. I’m English, spending all my free time leafleting, canvassing and talking to anyone who will listen about the possibilities of Yes.

      The biggest problem for Yes at the moment isn’t that a majority of English might vote No, it’s that a huge number of Scots might vote No. You can hardly blame the English in Scotland from following them can you?

      A Yes voting English person is just a bonus, it’s the Scots we have to convince. If we want Independence we have to get out on the streets and work for it! Go join your local Yes group and get busy!

      Rant over.

    20. RogueCoder says:

      This is a very strange poll. It does not appear to reflect what’s happening on the ground, in the media or online. BT has been an absolute shambles the past month and their ‘arguments’ are being shot down left, right and centre.

      Perhaps the most telling poll will be the EP elections next week. If Yes has the momentum we think it does, we should see a massive vote for the SNP. Tasmina will almost certainly be taking her seat as an MSP, but it will be interesting to see what happens to the Labour vote.

    21. Naomi Stewart says:

      Both my sister in law and I are English. We’ve lived in Scotland nearly 10yrs. It’s our home. We are very pro independence. I was out in Coatbridge yesterday working the yes stand!I do have friends up here who are English and sadly our relationships are under strain. They see me as an English ("Tractor" - Ed). They are people that just read ‘the facts’ from the BT page and the controlled media, so no surprises why they think like that!

    22. Oscar Taime says:

      Given how many other Yes groups there are it can’t be long before we have EnglishBornScots4Indy inviting Billy Brag et al up to support a Yes vote.

      Personally I’d be quite keen on organizing a Yes Geneva group with any like minded expats to help ensure are on track for the various negotiations around staying in the UN and associated organizations.

      Any takers?

    23. Graham says:

      I am quite happy that those born elsewhere who have made a commitment to Scotland are able to vote, such as my wife who is English. I am less happy about those who have made a lifestyle choice – a bit like the expat community in Spain who want England with sun – and have no commitment to Scotland, but will have a vote.

    24. Matt Seattle says:

      It is the mindset of the colonist. It’s the reason even fair-minded English people wish and work for Scottish Independence.

    25. Matt Seattle says:

      correction – ‘even’ is superfluous above

    26. MochaChoca says:

      If I lived outwith Scotland and the country I lived in were holding a referendum on such a serious constitutional issue I’d be inclined not to vote against what the indigenous population appeared to want.

      I’d not usually be in favour of propagating what could appear to be an ‘ethnic’ divide, but perhaps we should consider highlighting this particular aspect of the polls (I’m sure I’ve read recently of another poll showing a similar split between Scots and rUKers).

      It may make some who intend to vote NO think twice, and even if they don’t switch to YES it might decide them to abstain and leave the decision to Scots.

    27. heedtracker says:

      Its a secret ballot so we’ll never know who votes yes or no. Same teamGB journalism believes they hold real power here and will try to cause trouble but people are pretty sensible.

      If they do win, shameless BBC etc will be ecstatic and they will bait us because they can. They’re all on a mission to stop Scotland running Scotland, or “mere” Scotland as Prof Curtice calls us.

      Prof Curtice word choice there alone shows his obvious contempt for Scottish people and and independence and why bettertogetherBBC use only him but he still trousers the “mere” Scottish cash quick enough.

    28. galamcennalath says:

      I agree focusing on English born is sinister and possibly part of something wider and nasty within BT.

      There is also a lack of logic. Statistically you could prove all sorts of political, ethnic, demographic and gender breakdowns show different Yes/No preferences. If there is a narrow No win then you could make a case to blame it on older people, women, Tory voters etc etc..

      Truth is the difference between Scots/English of 44/27 % isn’t huge. Men/women will show a substantial difference, though quite so big.

      For me, it just shows the groups YesScotland need to put extra focus on.

    29. galamcennalath says:

      Marr just claimed, as a comment to a poll showing a No swing, that there have been several polls showing that trend. Has there? Why did he feel the need to chip in that comment?

      Marr is just another BtBC gutter hack.

    30. In our campaign group, we have an English family who join us every weekend, but further to the polls, I’m in agreement with cath in that I don’t believe them. The day that one of them show a Yes lead, then the “game’s a bogie”. That will never happen, so there will be amazement on the 19th when we win.

    31. Alfresco Dent says:

      Whilst I appreciate that this is all part of Project Fear’s divide & conquer strategy I’d be very interested to see a similar breakdown of figures regarding Poles and other migrants from former East European states.

      In my experience they are overwhelmingly Yes and, if we are to believe newspapers, apparently outnumber us all. Not so comfortable reading for the Britnats.

    32. Tam Jardine says:

      For anyone reading the last few articles in need of a breath of fresh air, I found Mark Frankland to be a fascinating guy- an English man who has not only made Dumfries and Galloway his home but has worked tirelessly against poverty there. Respect.

      He is also an accomplished author and I would love to see him get a wider audience through the Yes campaign.

      His speech down in Lockerbie cuts through all the media pish nicely.

    33. scottish_skier says:

      With 122 days to go to the 2011 election now, current polls have this:

      45% Labour
      32% SNP
      11% Con
      9% Lib

      Little point putting any money on Labour winning; you’ll not get really any return on it. Iain Gray is ‘guaranteed’ for FM. I mean we’ve just had a TNS poll with Labour on 49%!

    34. Abaron Nomore says:

      I have a couple of English born friends who are inclining towards Yes, yet have nagging fears about the possibility of anti-English feeling arising in an Independent Scotland. It’s not logical but the fear of being an ethnic minority in a foreign country is real for them.

      Now if they are worried about that, it would seem more logical to be concerned about how Scots will feel in the event of a No vote but it seems best not to even go there. These people will vote Yes, a little reassurance is all they need.

      But Better Together know what they are doing, logic and reason has nothing to do with their campaign. Negative emotions are their stock in trade and we must be very careful not to give them what they want.

    35. Edward says:

      Marr cant help being a gutter hack, stating Scotland ‘leaving’ the Union, instead ending the union

      He is so twisted and doesn’t understand reality

      It was noticeable the he had Scotland on Sunday and played up the poll, but absent was the Sunday Herald

    36. WGM says:

      I’ve lurked well over a year,never felt the need to post.This story is the start of the divide an conquer stratege imo.

    37. Cymru Rydd says:

      I wonder if this story explains David Cameron’s comments the other day that Scots ” do not want to live in a foreign country”.

      At the time, I thought it was a nonsensical statement to make, but then , lo and behold this particular poll, and this particular question, comes along to explain it all.

      I had always believed that Cameron’s sorties to Scotland were mainly about shoring up his position amongst mainly English voters south of the border. Now, it would appear he is also making an overt appeal to the 10% English-born people in England. Better Together must have made the calculation, that in a tight vote, making an emotional play for this section of the population can be an effective tactic.

      Time for YES to counter this by highlighting some English-born people who are in favour of independence?

    38. David Agnew says:

      no, their intentions are not honourable. they are deliberately playing with fire – they trying to provoke the kind of sentiment they crave. Unwittingly not appreciating how this will effect our relationship with England post no.

      tick tock Union tick tock

    39. Robert Peffers says:

      This conversation took place about 8 weeks back between me and the English born wife,(EBW), of a Scottish born friend, (as near as I can recall the exact words).

      EBW: Why are you wanting to vote YES Auld Bob?

      AB: So that the people of Scotland can run Scotland for the people of Scotland.

      EBW: But we’re all British, are we not?

      AB: Aye, and we will still all be British no matter how the vote goes.

      EBW: But if it’s a YES win we won’t have a British Government.

      AB: What, “British”, government would that be, EBW?
      There are five independent governments in Britain and three devolved administrations.

      EBW: Oh! I mean the English parliament at Westminster.

      AB: Nah! EBW, There is no parliament of England- you mean the Government of the United Kingdom. The one that must end when the United Kingdom disunites.

      EBW: Westminster’s the parliament of England too. Is it not?

      AB: No, it just acts like it is.
      You never did tell me why you both decided to choose to move to Scotland after you got married?
      BTW: How’s that lassie o yours doing at Uni?

      EBW: (after long pause). It just seemed that we’d be better off in Scotland by selling our expensive small house in England and buying this cheaper and bigger one in Scotland.

      AB: Great!
      Now I want you to think about that when you go to cast your vote.

    40. PickledOnionSupper says:

      It’s very worrying if this is their latest tactic. We mustn’t allow them to start dividing up the people of Scotland like this. I hope the Yes campaign keeps stressing the positive, inclusive civic nationalism approach.

      And good idea Oscar Taime, maybe we could have a concert with Billy Bragg et al, alongside some of our great Scottish musicians (Dick Gaughan?!), highlighting the benefits of Scottish Indy to those who feel disenfranchised in rUK…

    41. Fairliered says:

      Very few will benefit from an outbreak of ethnic violence in Scotland. The MSM are among the few.

    42. Robert Peffers says:

      Both WOS & NNS just got a mention on BBC Radio Scotland.

    43. heedtracker says:

      The other day that Scots ” do not want to live in a foreign country” is big headlines here in Aberdeen, or “alien country” for far right Press and Journal. I took it too mean they are now fear mongering Scots living in England and English people living in Scotland after independence and wouldn’t that be a terrible terrible thing or “othering” as the Rev puts it. They’re trying on anything they can think of basically.

    44. Wp says:

      This kind of stuff,although predictable,shouldn’t concern anyone. It will get a lot worse,so be patient. It would be great to be ahead in the polls,but peaking too early is never a good thing. Most no voters have already made up their minds long ago,there is over 20% still to decide,and most undecideds till now move to Yes when given the correct information.
      The poll of polls still show Yes trending up and if the graph keeps going in that direction it will be around August when the balance tips in our favour. There is nothing they can do that would change this. When they won’t publish a poll that shows unfavourable results you know they are panicking.

    45. Arel says:

      No Sunday Heralds in Broxburn this morning, what’s this all about? Anyone else got this problem? BTW no shortage of SoS with the latest poll stuck in your face.

    46. Davy says:

      This looks like the Newspaper media is trying to shitstir an us and them stance and are doing it just to sell their papers, and they don’t give a shit about the trouble it cause’s. Don’t fall for it.

      “David Robertson” Thats an excellent rant.

    47. Kirsty says:

      They’ve been trying to smear Yes voters as anti-English racists, without success, for decades. So it was only a matter of time before they made some up (which they have and probably will again) or tried to whip it up for themselves, like this. Hopefully, they’ll just have to keep trying because we’re not falling for it.

      Re: voting intentions, I live in an area with a large English population. So far, I haven’t met any who are Yes voters but that’s entirely their choice. One of the reasons for independence is to try to build a country with greater democracy where people in Scotland decide what happens in Scotland. So why would any Yes voter resent them doing the very thing that we’re all campaigning for?

    48. wingman 2020 says:

      There is definitely something suspicious about these polls. There pretty much has been from the start.

      Lets take nationality out of it for a second.

      We have 420,000 people from South Britain living and working or retired here. The retirees come to get a more peaceful life style and cash in on their housing equity. The workers come here for better jobs.

      We have 800,000 North Britons working in the South. They go for the ‘buzz’ of London, to find work and to enjoy the better weather.

      Most (but not all) of these people in the first group will be relatively wealthy or comfortable for all sorts of reasons. (Generally, you don’t move North unless there are advantages for you.)

      The second group comprises of a range of people who generally have gone South to try to make their economic circumstances better.

      Of course the second group don’t get a vote… and even if they did, they are surviving in the South and most are not interested in putting any political or economic changes in their way.

      The first group will only vote YES if they are:
      – enlightened enough to understand that after independence things would pretty much continue as normal between the countries.
      – are getting older and see the threat to the Scottish NHS
      – they dislike what Westminster has done to these islands and believe that Indy could lead to a progressive new country.

      They might vote NO if they feel or start to feel that this has become a nationality focused debate.

      It’s why throughout the whole campaign, people should be saying ‘the residents of Scotland’ and not ‘the Scots’.

      If it does start to slip down the more nasty route… particularly after a NO vote… I can see the inevitable happening…

      Something that is currently invisible…. How many of these people from South Britain who voted NO, are well off, retirees, running their own businesses, versus the percentage of them living on the average wage.

      And I can tell you the answer to that already, the majority of southern ‘immigrants’ are better off than the average resident by birth.

      And this is where trouble can arise.

    49. JLT says:

      This is just another scare story. Along with the Rev, Scottish Skier, and a few others, they have proven how some of these polls work, and that some of the data is not only inadequate, but completely irrelevant to referendum itself.

      The media know this. The Government know this. But, it certainly doesn’t stop them from twisting the facts …or the flawed results, to their own advantage.

      These days, when I hear that such a poll has been broadcast by the media, I have an instant reaction as to distrust the information immediately.

      From what I have found, more than half of my family, friends and work colleagues are voting Yes. Some are voting No. Some Don’t Know. The point is, if you look at what I just typed there, is that Yes is dominant. What the media and BT mob do is add up the No’s and DK’s together. We know this, because we know how insidious the British State can be.

      When we reach August, and into that last 6 week period; that is when it will all ramp up. I expect to be questioned silly by the DK’s and even from those who still advocate a No.

      One thing is for sure, and I think it will happen on the big day itself. It is something that no poll can determine, nor predict, but when it comes to that very moment, when one is in the booth, the questions stop bar one.

      ‘Should Scotland be an independent country?”

      For all the Yes folk, the question is simple, and will be over in less than a second. You smile, tick the Yes box, fold the paper and put it in the ballot box.

      For the DK’s, probably more than half will vote Yes as they are more open to the idea of independence.

      For a person voting No, this becomes difficult. Very difficult! Unless you are a complete diehard for the Union, then those 6 words are going to stare back and end up questioning them! The keyword is Scotland, and for many a No, that word is going to tear at their soul. To vote No, would be perceived that couldn’t believe in their own country or their own countrymen 100%. Regret, disappointment and even fear will be there for some should they vote No. Some will break out into a sweat, others will feel ill.

      And the reason being, is that moment. All the talk; all the bravado; all the putdowns; all the mickey-taking stops right there! There is no more time. Decide! Decide Now! And to be honest …I think quite a few No’s out there will vote Yes because of one thing …Scotland. It will be as simple as that. And I’ll bet when they walk out of the polling station, that a weight will have been lifted from their shoulders, because there will be no regret, for how could there be, when one votes for their country.

    50. Flooplepoop says:

      Very timely post 🙂 and rather apt.

    51. Macart says:

      They’ve been playing with that particular box of matches since day one. We seriously need to keep this debate on the issues that matter and not allow this poison to spread. This is about how we are governed. We respond in kind to this ethnic baiting then we’re playing their demented game.

      Independence is about our future governance. Its about the governance of all Scottish citizens regardless of their point of origin. Lets keep the conversation civil and simple.

    52. purplebadger says:

      English person here, working hard for Yes Scotland. It’s not my main motivation, obviously, but it’s important that as many voices with as many different accents are heard making the case for yes. This is an entirely inclusive campaign and any suggestion otherwise is pish. This kind of divisive nonsense must be firmly rejected.

    53. wingman 2020 says:


      “One of the reasons for independence is to try to build a country with greater democracy where people in Scotland decide what happens in Scotland. So why would any Yes voter resent them doing the very thing that we’re all campaigning for?”

      It is a noble sentiment.

      But let me play devils advocate. A democratic NO vote determined by a group of people who go against the country’s zeitgeist because of political loyalties from outside?
      There may well be a backlash in this case.

      What all this does confirm, after a ‘NO’ vote… You will be hard pushed to find many admit they voted NO or didn’t bother to vote… There will be a massive period of regret and mourning in Scotland.

      Only the well off will be happy. And in that sense, I’d fully expect a bigger portion of ABs to be in the 420,000 mentioned earlier.

    54. liz says:

      I agree that this is an attempt at divide and rule but my heart still sank when I saw the No swing.

      On the other thread Training Day mentioned about staying in Scotland if there is a no vote, well I’ve made up my mind and I will be leaving.

      Other folk have maybe got more belief than me, but I genuinely think that this is a once in a generation opportunity which will not come again in my lifetime.

      And the folk I know who complain most about the English and ‘getting a government we didn’t vote for’ are usually Labour supporting No’ers – you couldn’t make it up.

    55. Marker Post says:

      Am not getting too worked up over the 5% “swing” to No. In one month, such a swing doesn’t seem to be possible, especially since there has been no game changing event.

      What I am looking forward to, however, is the European elections, and waiting to see what effect the constant smugness of Cameron and Farage on TV have on the polls.

      That, and the realisation that the Tories are more than likely to win an outright victory in the next General Election.

    56. Papadox says:

      HMGs/ESTABLISHMENTs one and only purpose is to keep Scotland prisoner for its own selfish benefit and false pride. It’s like the old saying “The operation was a success, however the patient died”. HMG just wants to win the referendum and let them get back to the good old days dictating from on high and running their little fiefdom as they please.

      Big problem is they have no idea what they are going to do with us after a no vote. Things will never be the same again, that’s the bit Westminster does not seem to have grasped. They have sown the wind, what now?

      As a kid my father used to tell me be careful what you ask for, because you may just get it. I think HMG haven’t thought this one through it could just be a poison chalice. Will be a very interesting time.

    57. For a more recent example you only have to look our devolution referendum in 1997. Won by just 0.6% (7000 votes).

      The counties that voted no are the ones that have the lower percentage of people who would identify as Welsh on later census reports.,_1997

      When we had the further law making powers in 2011 it was a comfortable 63% yes with only Monmouthshire voting no.

      There is definitely racial tension here in Wales but it’s very much that of the British against the Welsh with Welsh speakers facing the brunt of attacks from our politicians and media. The BBC also operates a language apartheid policy where attacks on Welsh are ignored whilst anything that could fuel the anti-Welsh sentiment are given wall to wall coverage.

    58. Eric D says:

      In the last ten days, while campaigning for Yes Scotland in this small borders town I’ve heard comments like :

      “We can’t vote Yes – we’re English…” (from a couple who moved to Scotland 15 years ago)

      “….but Salmond has said the English are going to get kicked out of Scotland…” (from a Dumfries resident)

      “I’ve got an English passport, so won’t be allowed a Scottish one …”

      “I’m English. I don’t get a vote” (from someone who lives in Moffat)

      “… the SNP hates the English..” (after given the facts about the number of SNP politicians, members, and supporters who are English, and realising that he’d never actually heard any ‘anglophobia’ from any SNP member/supporter – at least this person moved to Yes).

      and ….

      “You’re not English (I am) – you’ve got a Scottish accent.”

      Add the above to the Galashiels schoolgirl and first-time voter who came home from school and informed her parents that she was voting ‘No’ – because she’d been told Scotland would lose it’s NHS if we vote Yes, and the person who told me he supported what Michael Gove is doing for Scottish schools – and I think we have a problem.

      I suspect that problem is called the Daily Mail and it’s ‘Comments’ section.

    59. Bugger (the Panda) says:

      comment disappeared?

    60. wingman 2020 says:


      You have said this before and I don’t disagree with you that there will be an element of ‘screw it, lets do it’.

      But this could be helped along by an appropriate slogan / nemonic

      Like ‘Think and vote positively, a better Scotland is possible’ … This is a bit crass but it gets the idea across.

      I think we need to stop fighting the scare stories and start generating and repeating the right slogans to strengthen these feelings you mention.

    61. HandandShrimp says:

      According to Ken there is also a poll in the Express which is well buried and only gives a No figure of about 53% which would suggest that it chimes with the Times one.

      Not sure about the Scotland on Sunday one…I was surprised that Ruth Davidson seemed to be tweeting about it the day before it was published. There seems to be an element of manufactured good news for the No camp to me. The rather contrived articulation of this poll to the market research thing done for another paper to achieve the result they want would suggest media massage rather than genuine interpretation. I will need to read Prof Curtice.

      The fact that the other two polls show a continued high for Yes is rather more encouraging. Both of the other papers seem to be more interested in fall out of the result though and consequently are not concerned about the overall numbers for either side which makes me trust the numbers rather more.

      On the fall out, Kevin has written a good piece in the Herald on this. Rather better than the sensationalist “Balkanisation” nonsense the others seem to be labouring.

    62. Nana Smith says:

      AS Victor Meldrew said “I don’t believe it”

      Is’nt it strange how they can shove this crap at us but refuse to show the mystery poll taxpayers paid for.

    63. wingman 2020 says:


      Flags and banners are conspicuous by their absence… If there are 45% of the population voting YES…. why are we not visible? What is going on there?

    64. Ron Burgundy says:

      Should there be a NO win it will be, in my view, the result of the Scots who were born here voting NO. This is a culpability these people cannot dodge.

      The post NO apocalypse will remind me of what Germany felt in 1946, when kicking over the rubble, it was impossible to find anyone who had voted for Hitler. The same will be true after a NO in September as the shame and regret bite deep.

    65. playtowin says:

      Things are changing in 40+ middleclass group. They are beginning to realise they do not know both sides of a very important debate and the TV just shows people shouting each other down. They do not use the internet except for online shopping and contacting family and friends. Many hate Facebook etc, but they do know how to open email links.

      I have politely offered to send such people links to articles of the Yes side, and debates that have been video-ed and have nearly had my hand bitten off with please and thank you thrown in.

      Collect your best, most powerful, and positive Yes links together ready to send them to any who wish to see them. Let them know you can probably help with information on specific subjects if they wish.

      If they like what they read tell them to pass them on!

    66. Grouse Beater says:

      In my view, the article is a propaganda appeal to English domiciled in Scotland to vote for England. The authors are hoping to shame them if they feel Yes is the wiser choice.

      There has always been a concern “settlers” will vote No, but like many another posting on this topic, I am always surprised and pleased to discover many are voting Yes. Indeed, their commitment, their understanding of the profound issues of democracy regained, are well understood.

    67. caz-m says:

      Are we still allowed to cheer when Italy score against England in the World Cup.

      You go into ANY pub in Scotland when England are playing in the World Cup and a gaol is scored against them.

      Does the pub break out in a deadly silence or does it erupt into jubilant hysteria. I think we know the answer to that.

      This joy that we feel will not be because of the Independence debate, but because their has been a sporting rivalry their for many decades.

      Will David Cameron flying the St George’s Cross above Downing St during the World Cup add to this rivalry?

      You decide.

    68. Tattie-bogle says:

      MSM in full swing at trying to cause irreparable damage no matter which way the vote goes. They really should hang their heads in shame, alas they have none.

    69. bunter says:

      Cant wait for the world cup when you can be sure the media will be trawling the country looking for folk with ”anyone but England” shirts on and non stop questions of ”are you supporting England”

    70. wingman 2020 says:

      Perhaps Scottish Skier can correct me… But I understand that a weighted poll of around 1000 is the optimum amount for accuracy.

      Its explained here.

      But, its also a number that can be manipulated very easily by small lapses in accuracy by the researcher. In other words, its easy to skew this sort of number.. For example, selecting the sample to manipulate the result.

    71. caz-m says:


      Was there not three polls out today?

      I think the ICM poll was the only negative poll out of the three. Getting too hung up on this ICM poll, we need to get the other two poll results put up.

      I will have a look for links. If anyone has results or links to the other polls please post them onto Wings.

      The other results should cheer us up a wee bit.

      Also the ICM poll results are not as negative as they are being made out to be.

      I am sure S_S will put ALL our minds at ease once he dissects these polls one by one.

    72. scottish_skier says:

      “My perception is still that there was a tightening in the polls at the tail end of last year after the white paper, and a very slow trend towards YES since then. The trend may well have slowed or stopped completely in recent weeks, but the single ICM poll or the normal variation in Panelbase is not enough to conclude it has reversed.”

      Anthony wells at Yougov who’s no supporter of Scottish independence.

    73. Karen says:

      Wonder if it is the same Panelbase poll which asked me which football team I supported?

    74. ScotFree1320 says:

      I don’t think that Yes have even started to campaign in earnest yet. Sure there have been billboard posters and leaflets printed but I don’t detect much other centrally coordinated activity. The Weirs have been very generous but that kind of money cannot and should not be spent overnight. Alex makes the odd speech for the SNP here & there, but other than that he’s being the F.M, which he was elected to do.

      Meanwhile the grassroots of YES are quietly beavering away doing street campaigning and getting the essential work of voter ID done. Later in the year we will go to the identified Undecideds and talk directly to them. On 18/09 we will go to the identified Yes voters and encourage them to vote.

      We cannot expect the broadcast media to give us anything like a fair hearing until they are compelled to (IIRC that’s from the end of June). For example the BBC did not broadcast the UK pensions minister saying that our pensions are safe but did scaremonger about affordability. They are, after all, members of the no-supporting CBI. Apart from the Sunday Herald we can expect the print media not to give us any time.

      We are in the middle of a propaganda war at the moment and the media are fully mobilised to facilitate that: Sowing doubt is exactly what the headline above is supposed to do.

      As scottish_skier says, remember what happened in 2011.

      Don’t lose heart but redouble your efforts to win the referendum!

    75. wingman 2020 says:

      MSM in full swing at trying to cause irreparable damage no matter which way the vote goes. They really should hang their heads in shame, alas they have none.

      Thats because they believe they have the unassailable right to manipulate and subjugate Scotland… we are less than 10% , a region who are getting two big for their boots…. The media is part of the establishment. Starting with King Media himself (The BBC) and going all the way down to the P&J royal servants.

    76. JLT says:

      Wingman 2020

      Can see what you’re saying mate, but I think there are reasons why.

      The reasons that it is not visible is that there is still a good portion of the public are still not fully engaged. They are still not interested.

      Plus, as another example, I have mates who are all voting Yes, but don’t get involved on this site, with the Yes campaign, or wear badges. I for one am not allowed to wear a badge during the day as I have a uniform that bears a company name. I would get a bollocking if I aligned with a political persuasion by wearing a badge while wearing company shirt. It would imply that my Company are voting Yes. Same with office workers in the major financial institutions. No political parties allowed. That is why it is not visible, but it still doesn’t mean that folk are not voting Yes …and being up for it big time.

      Then there are those who are voting Yes, but are just keeping quiet as they don’t want to upset friends who may vote no, or have friends who are English (my wife worries what the English members of BOTH our families will think). I can understand that, and so, the wife keeps quiet so as not offend, but hey! She’s says she is voting Yes and nothing will change her mind.

      Another reason is that they are not politically active as ourselves. A lot of folk are bored silly with this now. Shocking and annoying as that might be, I can see it from their point of view. They will vote Yes in September, but are not interested in discussing it. It is a personal matter to them, while for ourselves, it is a very open thing. Some of my friends groan when I start!

      As to me repeating my old mantra, the point is that a percentage of the No’s will vote Yes in that very last second, which would also prove that these polls are hugely flawed. These questions in these polls are probably conducted like a General Election when they ask folk what party they are going to vote for. The problem is, that when folk do vote, they don’t generally quake, sweat bullets or feel ill at having to debate between choosing Labour or Tory in those few seconds. They WILL in this referendum!! That is why I believe the polls are seriously flawed, and miss out on the one key element. The heart itself. People WILL jump from No to Yes in those few moments as they stare at the question. That is why I mention this little possible insight once more so that folk who read this article today, won’t feel a moment of doubt about the info that the media is spouting. There is a glimmer of hope, and it will take place in the booths itself.

    77. G H Graham says:

      Forget what these latest polls say. This is a repeat of what happened when Wings commissioned its first poll, remember? It showed a large support for YES & the reasons why.

      The results shocked the media & what did they do? Well, they broadcast absolutely nothing until about 2 weeks later when they produced results from their own poll which showed a big shift to NO.

      Surprise, surprise, the British have just got the results of a poll they commissioned and the word on the street is that it shows a swing to YES.

      Well, about a week later, the media again trumpets its own poll showing a big shift to NO.

      This is a tactic by the media to counter the sense that there is growing support for YES and a weakening of support for NO.

      The media’s polls are thus designed to undermine confidence in those already YES and even more importantly, those considering YES.

      The numbers in themselves are meaningless, you have to understand the reasons for broadcasting these polls. Quite simply, it’s unionist propaganda.

    78. scottish_skier says:

      Panelbase showing a nice rise for Yes and gap closure.

      Yes = 40.0 (+2.1)%
      No = 44.5 (+0.6)%

      From the last times poll in February.
      47 (+5)%
      53 (-5)%

      Since the last times poll in February. Also up on the WoS April where full base data was shown (YesScotland poll didn’t have this).

      Note this is before turnout weighting which I’m uncomfortable with as it takes people’s word on this.

      Given that up to a 1/4 of respondents regularly lie in polls and say they voted in 2011 when they didn’t, how trusting can we be here.

    79. Anne Lawrie says:

      Re: Stores not stocking the Sunday Herald. Go into the store, pick up a basket & choose loads of groceries, or whatever. Get to the counter. Ask about the Sunday Herald. If you get a negative answer just leave the rest of the shopping & tell them you’ll go elsewhere. If they think they are going to lose “other business” they might decide it’s just not worth it to try and boycott the Herald.

    80. galamcennalath says:

      This whole debate hasn’t gone as I expected. I suppose I thought it would be a stand up debate between the two sides, along the lines of electioneering or the last Devolution Referendum.

      It quickly developed into nothing like that. It is astonishingly asymmetrical. Not just in the obvious way BT has barely begun to get any real grassroots organisation up and running, but is far bigger ways.

      Yes is being financed mainly from Scotland, No is being financed mainly from London. I sense much of Labour don’t have their heart in the campaign so under the surface it’s become SNP versus Tories. The BBC are not neutral observers and reporters, they are part of BT.

      Then there’s VNB. If it were a Scottish based company, employing Scots and financed here, that would be much more acceptable. But it isn’t. It’s London based and paid for.

      The debate cannot now be about Scots making their minds up about what’s best for Scotland. It has become Scots versus the British State and all it’s many roots and branches.

      And now we find one of our key strengths assaulted. It should not be about ethnicity. Where you were born should be irrelevant. You live here, you should have a say in our common future. However, since the campaign has most so far to a Scotland versus London struggle, our civic values are being put at risk.

      This is at the centre of why Scotland has to get away from this sick Union.

    81. bjsalba says:

      O/T interesting item on

      An excerpt from the televised debate between the five candidates for the presidency of the European Commission, broadcast throughout Europe the other night, included a question specifically about the self-determination processes in Scotland and Catalonia.

      Why was this not Big News on BBC? Was it even broadcast? (Don’t have TV, so I don’t bother looking at the listings). Oh, silly me – of course not, it’s good news for the Yes campaign.

    82. call me dave says:

      I find it strange that the comments made by Queenie in the papers today just happen to coincidentally occur at the same time as this little bit of ethnic data from the poll this morning.

      Who’s pulling the strings?

    83. Flooplepoop says:

      I see a quite positive result in the Panelbase poll, when they asked the question
      “If the referendum was today,
      and you were standing in the
      polling booth right now, how
      would you vote?”
      52%Yes 45%no 3%undecided

    84. scottish_skier says:

      Panelbase looking to be the most demographically representative pollster.

      This one has 79.2% born in Scotland among respondents. Age 16+ in 2011 census was 81.5%.

      ICM are further off. Their last poll had only 75% of respondents born in Scotland; a 6.5% bias to people from England/the rUK giving No and advantage.

    85. ruther60 says:

      Don’t agree that no voters have already made up their mind and won’t change. Most I know have still not bothered to look at the facts or find out the truth. I have found that nudging them towards online reading such as wos etc can be all that it takes. Many still only need to be convinced.

    86. Papadox says:

      @galamcennalath says:

      Very well put I couldn’t agree more. HMG has turned it into Scotland attacking GB = (England = London = Establishment).

    87. rab_the_doubter says:

      Well it looks like The wee hole in Alistair Darlings bag of marbles has got big enough that they’re scattered all over the floor.
      In the Fail on Sunday today he’s ranting on about ‘orchestrated Cybernat attacks’ and not too subtly suggesting that they are being controlled from the top.
      What really p***es me off though is that for all the supposed orchestration I’m still waiting to be issued with my Cybernat Uniform.

    88. Jim Mitchell says:

      It’s connected, we had the nasty nat’ stuff, the stories, (fables), of NO supporters being threatened etc and just recently a concentration on stories about ‘healing’ etc after the referendum vote, I don’t know about other places but here in Clackmannanshire I have never come across ANY who are likely to lose the plot whatever way the vote goes.

      This is the old empire divide and rule stuff.

    89. Effie Deans says:

      As some of you may know I’m not an independence supporter, but I enjoyed today’s article and thought it a welcome reiteration of civic nationalism. I’ve written about this topic recently and think it is one of the fundamental strengths of the SNP that they have no time for any sort of ethnic nationalism. See:

      People who were born in many places will vote in the independence referendum and over 700,000 people born Scots but living elsewhere will not have a vote. Everyone who votes in the referendum is equal to everyone else. My vote is not better or more valid because I was born in Scotland than someone else’s because he was was born in Warsaw or Karachi.

      I would like to think that if Scotland becomes an independent country then everyone will be equally a Scot no matter where they were born. If on the other hand Scotland votes No, that too will be the vote given by the Scottish people and no one should worry too much where people were born. We’re all going to need to come together whatever the result.

    90. Marcia says:


      Interesting to see the undecideds breaking more for Yes in that poll. As with most polls we need to reach out to the women as they tend to be more cautious. It can be done.

    91. caz-m says:


      The Scottish Sunday Express also have a Survation poll out today.

      For some reason it only tells you 53.5% NO.

      So do you take from that, that 46.5% are YES?

      I looked on the Suvation website, but it is not up to date.

      Scottish Sunday Express link:

    92. Hotrod Cadets says:

      The 2011 census identifies 8% of folk living in Scotland as “White Other British”. Polls suggest 25% or more of them will vote Yes.

      In order to get an overall majority, 52% of the remaining 92% of the population would have to vote Yes.

      If we can’t convince 52% of that 92% to vote Yes, do we deserve to be independent?

    93. Gregor says:

      I was born Newcastle as was my wife, so I suppose I am an Englishman living in Scotland for the last 23 years,I am like many in England of Scottish descent on my my mothers side her mother coming from Nairn. I suppose in a way I regard my self firstly as Geordie, secondly as a Scot thirdly British but never an Englishman. My brothers living over the border are more English than me in their attitude and we do have discussions about the Yes vote.
      I once met Alex Salmond at a fishermans rally / protest at Tynecastle in 1992 or 1993 and was hugely impressed with him his knowledge and his ability to talk with anyone without talking down to them.
      So English not any more, voting yes certainly.
      Have I ever been asked by any pole? no.
      We are both in agreement my wife and I we will be voting YES

    94. Robert Kerr says:

      It’s all to do with momentum killing.

      The hidden poll, c40K pounds worth, may well be pro independence. We cannot know.

      Now two polls, against the trend.

      Do not forget the Dunfermline by-election which killed SNP momentum and the lost electoral paperwork.

    95. rab_the_doubter says:

      I do wish people would stop mentioning about expat Scots not getting the vote – its not unusual and its also irrelevant. If you are born in London you only get to vote on who becomes the London Mayor if you don’t live in London.

    96. Gregor says:

      Just explain why I regard myself as a Geordie it is purely a football thin 60 years of following NUFC is hard to shake off

    97. scottish_skier says:

      Since the beginning of the year, panelbase, which hase the most demographically representative samples, has the gap (Excluding DKs) closing as follows (ex DK):


      Full base (not turnout weighted), i.e. all respondents.

      All together a good polling day for Yes.

    98. scottish_skier says:

      Note ICM have apparently changed methodology (again) so their poll can’t be compared to the last one(s).

      I await tables before forming an opinion on it. They also have too many people not from Scotland (mainly from England) in their panel so have an in-built bias to No as mentioned before.

    99. Grouse Beater says:

      my wife and I we will be voting YES

      Thank you, Gregor.

    100. caz-m says:


      Summing then,

      Panelbase 48% Yes 52% No.

      ICM 42% Yes 58% No.

      Survation 46.5% Yes 53.5% No.

      Is that about right S_S?

    101. boglestone says:

      Just wanted to say that every English born person I know is voting Yes. 🙂

    102. bookie from hell says:

      Do polls affect how the voter will vote?

      Also I think European election,is good timing for YES,some real stats,on voting intentions

      Remember Lamont said European election has nothing to do with referendum,maybe worried about high vote for independent parties

    103. Clydebuilt says:

      My old boss is a Yorkshireman lived and worked in Scotland for at least 30 years. He thinks of himself as being an Englishman and that the referendum is for Scots to decide. I’ve told him he has every right to vote.

    104. Mary Bruce says:

      @scottish_skier, what you are saying reflects much more what I’m experiencing in real life; II have yet to come across ANYONE who has moved from yes or don’t know to no, whether friends, family, colleagues, people on Facebook, in the village pub, at the poker club, anywhere. If there was a 5% swing to no we would all be experiencing it in the street.

      Anyway, anything that keeps the no voters complacent and sitting at home watching telly can only be a good thing. A yes lead might have them out knocking on doors. It will be interesting to see how many no folk turn out to Mundell and Carmichael’s “undecideds” events this week (get your tickets now folks, don’t let them away with their lies)

    105. Grouse Beater says:

      @Effie Deans
      the SNP … have no time for any sort of ethnic nationalism.

      If it is so obvious, why state it?

      “Ethnic” nationalism is the taint enemies of democracy place on civil movements for empowerment.

      In Scotland’s case it is a manufactured argument. The nation has never been big enough to build an empire.

      Even Wallace lost interest in territorial taming just as he arrived at the outskirts of London. He went home again, a very Scottish trait. “Ach, we won. Let’s go hame fir tea.”

      Articles juggling with ethnic and civic nationalism are usual mischevious in intent – invariably a complete waste of time, full of false argument, historical ignorance, and based on alien cultures and mores. In other words, written by the ignorant for the ignorant.

    106. Adrian B says:

      LOLZ, Effie,

      Try voting for a candidate in a different region/country on Thursday next week for the Euro elections.

      I suspect that council elections have similar constituency border rules that we work with. Westminster and Holyrood constituency boundaries will also have a bearing on your voting options.

      When people don’t like democracy they are often quick to point to faults in the system. The existing system has been built up over many years – if you would like to shape change/progress then a debate on the subject is valid, but if you think that you can in some way surest that the existing system is unfair, then has it not been unfair in the past to. Does that make past votes on Devolution undemocratic and not valid also?

    107. Keith Brodie says:

      Rev Stu Campbell

      This is my first comment since I left in a huff, promising never to return, due to the use of foul language. Unfortunately a severe dose of man-flu prevented me from explaining myself fully at the time. I’m not going to drag that issue up again but the main reason I complained in the first place is because of how important this site is to the independence cause.

      In that spirit I think it should be pointed out that this is certainly not the first poll to ask the question of country of origin (you refer to ethnic origin in the article). The last ICM poll asked this question. Scot Goes Pop did the article linked to below to question the weighting that was given to English-born respondents. A certain person who comments here was mentioned in the SGP article and wrote several comments – I am disappointed that he has not already pointed out the prior asking of the “country of origin” question. The slant the Sunday Times has put on it is more than unfortunate but to suggest that this particular question is something new is being disingenuous at best. There is no need to make things up to win this; doing so might actually lose it.

    108. Findlay Farquaharson says:

      the english people i know are voting yes. could this be misleading media reporting?

    109. Griminish says:

      To obtain all of the parameters in the Times article it would appear to me that the sample must have been skewed at around 78% Scots : 22% English – Since the article suggests that only 10% of referendum voters would be of an English origin then what is the point in the poll, other than to generate a misleading headline. I look forward to scottish_skier’s analysis.

    110. Murray McCallum says:

      Did anyone else catch Nigel Farage saying their internal polling suggested OneNation Labour supporters were proportionately more likely, compared to Tories, to stick with a UKIP vote (in the EU Parliament elections) on into the 2015 GE.

      I guess these must be voters who want an in/out EU referendum and who have maybe bought into immigration controls.

      This seems to be another item on the growing list of reasons why Labour will struggle in the 2015 GE.

    111. Truth says:

      I too am wary of all this.

      I am also wary of describing those “born in England” as English.

      I was born in England to Scottish parents who were in effect economic migrants. So was my brother.

      We returned to Scotland when I was a toddler.

      I have never felt, nor described myself as English, yet if I was a respondent to this poll I would be classed as English. It would make no sense whatsoever to me.

      An elderly neighbour a few doors down was also born in England, but has only ever identified as Scottish.

      Needless to say my neighbour, my brother and I are all voting yes.

      We are Scots and I won’t have the media inferring otherwise. Your birthplace is only of minor consequence to your nationality.

    112. setondene says:

      Personally I think the 27% English residents in favour of independence reflects great credit on the English community in Scotland. It requires open minds and an effort to find facts against the pro-British propaganda blizzard. So, well done to our English fellow citizens.

    113. Truth says:

      On the other side of the coin to my last post, I also have an English born and bred friend who has recently moved to Glasgow.

      He is a strong supporter of Scottish independence and will be voting yes, just as soon as I hand him his completed voter registration form for him to sign.

      So sure, there are English people in Scotland voting no, but there are loads voting yes as well.

    114. Dave McEwan Hill says:

      boglestone at 11.40

      Same with me – but there is a significant number of English people in my area who would never think of knowing me and who are politically silent and very guarded.

      These are mainly Tory in sentiment and there only real Scottish interaction is with the “wish we were English” wee Tory ladies who appear to largely make up the Better Together in this area.

      The fact that English immigrants are giving Better Together a small edge should be widely publicised. That would certainly firm up a few waverers

    115. Croompenstein says:

      A timely reminder of Cunninghame-Graham..

      The enemies of Scottish Nationalism are not the English, for they were ever a great and generous folk, quick to respond when justice calls. Our real enemies are among us, born without imagination

    116. Training Day says:

      An English mate of mine will be voting Yes, slightly reluctantly I think. I can understand his thinking.

      On the other hand, an English person with whom I work is viciously and bitterly anti-independence, and is not slow in sharing that view with Scots in the most condescending terms.

      The issue for me is increasingly boiling down to the fact that if we can’t convince over 50 percent of people in Scotland, Scots or English, that the normal state of affairs lies in self-determination just as every other country in the world, then we’ll be in a truly horrible place.

    117. Dr Ew says:

      Lots to digest here but a note to the much respected Rev: I don’t agree the fellow in the lead photo has his face “contorted into a provocative, mocking sneer”.

      I don’t know the fellow or the context, but it looks to me like some ordinary guy goofing it up a little for the camera – something we’ve all done at Yes stalls, etc.

      We’ve all seen the MSM’s overuse of a particular image of that young, musclebound bloke stripped to the waist, kilt on, facepainted, tattooed and snarling into the camera. For a while it seemed attached to every article and opinion piece about our campaign and I’ve often wondered about how he felt about that use of his image when it seemed to me he was probably some guy having a laugh on the day of the big rally last September – if indeed that’s when it was snapped.

      My point is your articles are often witty, sometimes scabarous but almost always insightful. ‘The others’ got me thinking on the ethnic dimensions to the debate and I braveheartedly agree we must strive not to fall into the anti-English rhetoric and embrace our inclusive, civic nationalism, so well done again on that. But, please, avoid the tropes and tricks of the MSM, and let’s not monster ordinary No supporters. I even have some of them as friends.

    118. scottish_skier says:


      Yes on Panelbase – continues to show closure and very narrow now. Also it seems the most demographically representative pollster – something I’ve believed for a while (they asked a natID type Q in the past and this matched the census well), particularly as it always seemed more in tune with people’s perceptions.

      ICM have changed their methodology again so I’m not commenting on that until I see tables. For now, it can’t be compared to past ICM polls.

      Survation look stable but as they ask what you’d do ‘today’ we must be cautious. If you look into their tables, their is steady closure, but only in certain to vote numbers. This is probably due to asking about today rather than September and would indicate slow firming of Yes and weakening of No.

      My conclusion is over the past month we’ve seen a further, but small closure. The good news is that Yes’s support is not receding and is becoming very solid. No is weakening and volatility is the result.

      I wasn’t expecting much change until the results of the EU election when >50% of the UK vote goes to the Tories / Extreme racist Tories (UKIP). Will be no pro-union polishing of that turd.

    119. I live in an area with a considerable English population, where people regularly travel over the border to shop and visit friends. It is also an area which receives ITV from Manchester (a disgrace which hopefully will change come independence), limiting Scottish news and A Scottish perspective on events.

      The area, being mainly rural, has no billboards that I’m aware of. I have received no leaflets from any of the campaigns apart from two SNP papers and numerous emails from Yes wanting money. This seems a forgotten area, but one which requires attention, though I appreciate its rural nature makes that difficult.

      Recently the Yes side seems to have been very quiet, allowing Osbourne, Cameron and Farage to make the running. Possibly the best strategy, biding its time until into the official campaign period. But I suspect that has had an effect in areas like this, where some English people will vote UKIP this week, and because of lack of information vote No come September.

    120. Andrew Parrott says:

      English born and very definitely YES voting.

    121. Paula Rose says:

      I love it when someone spotting my Yes badge tells me I’m anti-english, my reply is –
      (Imagine Barbara Windsor’s voice)

      You wot dear, anti-english? you’re ‘aving a larf!

    122. Calgacus MacAndrews says:

      @David Robertson says:
      The biggest problem for Yes at the moment isn’t that a majority of English might vote No, it’s that a huge number of Scots might vote No.

      Great rant.

      It doesn’t matter on 18th September who the people are who vote YES, just as long as they are in the majority.

      Margo said that all we each need to do is convert one person to YES.

      I was posting yesterday about going out door-chapping for YES. That is a great way to get the chance to convert people, and it is pretty easy to do and very rewarding.

      If you knock on 20 doors, canvassing for YES, you will almost certainly get to speak to one undecided person who is prepared to have a conversation with you, and who will move to YES if given the information that they are actually keen to receive.

      So anybody going out canvassing for YES a couple of times a month (e.g. two 2-hour door chapping rounds per month) between now and September has the opportunity to be responsible for the conversion to YES of at least 10 undecideds.

      If you have gone out canvassing for YES before then contact your local YES Campaign group and meet up with them at their next event.

      Anybody who doesn’t know who their local YES group are, or needs contact details, just needs to stick an Off-Topic post here on a Wings thread, asking for advice or contact details, and I’m sure somebody will point them in the right direction.

      Three advice points I have regarding going out canvassing for YES are as follows:-

      1) The first time you go out, go out with someone else who has done it before. That way you get to see how the mechanics of the question-asking and form-filling works, and, more importantly, you get to see a way of doing it that overcomes any preconceived fears that you may have had about going round knocking doors.

      2) Make sure that when people open their doors they can see clearly that you are from YES. I wear a 37mm YES lapel badge, and have a YES-logo shoulder bag that I make sure is pointing towards the door when it opens.

      I open with:-

      “Sorry to bother you, I am in the area canvassing for the YES Campaign, and, if you have time, I’d like to as you a couple of questions about where you are at the moment on deciding how to vote in the Independence Referendum.”

      It seems to me that because you are clearly (visually and verbally) from YES you get three reactions that you can immediately identify:-

      a) Welcome (of varying warmness) from already-YES people.

      b) Unwelcome (of varying coldness) from ‘hard’ NO-people.

      c) Uncertainty (of varying forms) from Undecideds.

      With the NO-people it is best to just mark them as NOs on the forms, thank them for speaking to you, and head off to the next door.

      With the YES-people I think that, if staying to having a conversation with them, it a good idea to facilitate them becoming more active in persuading their friends, family, or work colleagues to vote YES. I usually give them an AYE RIGHT card or leaflet, and maybe YES badges and stickers.

      With the Undecideds I ask questions to explore why they haven’t yet decided to vote YES. This is the point where all the information and arguments that Wings, Newsnet, Bella, Business for Scotland etc. have documented can provide the answers that the undecided person is seeking.

      I usually hand over to the Undecideds an AYE RIGHT card or leaflet, and in most cases mark on it the websites of most relevance to their concerns and need for information.

      My view and experience is that it is not too difficult to move the Undecided people either straight to YES, or get them moving in that direction.

      3) If you are going out canvassing regularly for YES, then it is perhaps better not to continue to go out as a pair with the same person.

      If going out in pairs it is good to have one ‘experienced’ and one ‘new’ person, so that the ‘new’ person learns the ropes. Next time, or later, the former ‘new’ person can be the ‘experienced’ person in a pair with a fresh newcomer, or can go out on their own if need be.

      Tutorial over. Just get out there if you can …

    123. scottish_skier says:

      You wot dear, anti-english? you’re ‘aving a larf!

      LOL. Quality.

      I know quite a few people from England (Borders) locally who are Yes. They are often the most vocal about it, I guess because they can’t be branded anti-themselves.

    124. Richard Lucas says:

      This Yorkshire accent is voting Yes, and I can think of many southron friends planning to do the same

    125. David Smith says:

      Just a minor detail, but one maybe worth others considering.
      When I’m north of the border, along with my Yes badge, I always accompany it with anorher wee badge, featuring the crossed flags of St Andrew and St George.
      I like to think it sends a quiet but important message.

    126. handclapping says:

      As an Englishman, I have felt it necessary to bone up on the referendum arguments as my duty to the people I live among. Unfortunately not all of my fellow countrymen have this respect for the local and will demand fish and chips in Malaga

      However I would point out that there are many Scots also who similarly cannot be arsed and will demand their fish and chips wrapped in the Record

    127. scottish_skier says:

      “This Yorkshire accent is voting Yes”

      Will I still be able to buy Wensleydale in an iScotland?

      If not, maybe you can help in getting some smuggled up here?

      As geologist, Yorshire ‘rocks’ BTW. Pubs great too.

    128. Glass Girl says:

      Can someone explain to me why all the panelbase polls relating to independence have polled more women than men overall? The other non politcal polls they have conducted seem to have a 50-50 ratio.

      The Sunday Times poll for instance seems to have polled many more people in the female +55 bracket than the male 16-34 one.

      I have no clue about how to read polls so perhaps this is perfectly normal practice but to me it looks like there has been greater polling of the age groups/genders that are believed to be more anti-independence.

    129. Cameron says:

      Would I be fair in saying that, if there is a No vote in September, that those who did vote against independence, deserve everything they get if it happens, i.e. no devo, budget cuts, mockery from a large number of rUK residents (which will happen), and even more inequality.

      I don’t think I could even look a lot of them in the face, wondering why the hell they’d even contemplate voting against democratic progression. If one had to call them ("Tractor" - Ed)ous, it wouldn’t have anything to do with nationality, but to do with what I just said.

    130. Bill McLean says:

      My English wife and all of my English friends and neighbours are voting YES!

    131. JPJ2 says:

      It is definitely an attempt to stir up anti-English sentiment and is therefore utterly despicable.

    132. D G RUSSELL says:

      the no campaign are very selective in the publishing of their polls

    133. call me dave says:

      Forget the polls it doesn’t matter, were to be saved from ourselves, it’s …Oh!…Devomaybe.

      Who knew Clegg is in Scotland today? He is promising more jam at some time in the future!.

      The Liberal Democrats will “act as the guarantors” of more powers for Scotland if it rejects independence.

      Mr Clegg, the party’s UK leader, said their proposals “are not the final word”, with Labour’s offering already on the table and the Conservatives due to publish their own devolution proposals in the next few weeks. FGS!

      Going away up Falkland hill to escape, I’ll just lie there for a while looking across the Forth to Edinburgh and beyond. I may be gone for some time.

      At least till tea time! 🙂

    134. call me dave says:

      Before I go I meant to post this link.

      ‘NO’ speakers not turning up to prearranged debates on independence. Really…I don’t believe it 🙁

    135. Betty Boop says:

      @Robert Peffers, 9.41am

      Your conversation with EBW (English born wife) resonated so much with a conversation I had yesterday at our local Yes stall.

      An English lady, living in Dunoon apparently, simply stated about the economic/inequality figures quoted to her that they would be Alex Salmond’s figures. No, she was informed, they were from government (GERS), OECD, etc., all official.

      She thought the NHS in Scotland was very good, much better than the mess down south, but, refused to believe it was a separate organisation. Nor did she believe that we pay for all the services received, nor that we received less than contributed to the UK Treasury, did not believe that Scotland was a net contributor. “I can’t believe that at all”.

      I asked her where she thought we got the money to pay for services. “Westminster” was her answer, “they give Scotland money”. As far as she was concerned, Scotland had always been “subsidised”.

      She astounded me at times as I ploughed on, but, no less than many Scottish born voters. It is depressing that so many people living in Scotland have swallowed the propaganda for so long that they have so little knowledge of the resources and intellect residing in their own country; such low self-esteem.

      Dunoon & Bute Yes activists, you have a job of work on your hands like the rest of us. There is one English lady though, who, despite her protestations, did have a look of doubt in her eyes when we finished our conversation.

    136. gerry parker says:

      @ David Smith,
      Works on a number of levels, two separate countries side by side and equal; two neighbours who should be friends; and I’m half english.
      I always couple it with a Yes badge too.

    137. katsoft says:

      I’ve been trawling some forums including Sun-Herald, The Times poll of English born voters intentions has produced exactly what BT and No Campaign have wanted and needed for months. This gives them a leverage into the Yes Campaign by accusing Yes supporters of being racist and unfortunately I’m seeing some signs of the Scotbaiting working as some comments are taking a slightly dark view. There is no room for bringing up the original nationalities of resident Scottish voters, unless you want to cause a backlash either on to or by the English born Scots. Yes Scotland must slap down hard on any “anti English” views otherwise the powers in London, Westminster, BBC/EBC, Newspaper media etc will accuse the Scots of racist abuses and next we will see the lunacy of ananymous posts or mails to BT supporting media of threats etc to law abiding residents purely because of their ethnic background. I do notice that only English born are included what about Polish, both recent and from WW2, Scots with Aisian background, Scots with Italian background. Wonder why only English voters were asked their intentions? Get ready for more scare stories from the London centric media.

    138. As Ballot Scrutineers WoS can monitor all Polling Stations.

      As registered scrutineers we can ensure that all the c.c.t.v monitors are switched-off – before, during and after the Independence Ballot has been completed.

      My local Polling Station is sited in a school where, during the 2010 General Election, the cctv monitors were clearly operating in the assembly room where voters were marking ballot papers.

      Having complained, the cctv monitors were off during the 2011 Holyrood Ballot.

      BT seems too smug
      One wonders what they have hidden up their sleeve.

    139. Bay Rok says:

      No Sunday Herald here in the Kilsyth Co-op today either.

    140. mjaei says:

      The No camp are really getting out of control now – someone’s vandalised that poor man’s face.

    141. bjsalba says:

      O/T A comment from a site I go to occasionally

      UKIP is just a front organisation for the establishment designed to hoover up the protest votes of the angry and politically illiterate.

      The scariest thing is that I fear he just might be right!
      It is a form of the manufactured consent thing.

    142. CameronB Brodie says:

      Just for clarity and to clear up any wrong impression I may have previously given, it was my great granny who was English. 🙂

    143. Horseboy says:


      This is my outcome of 50years working life in the British Union.
      I’ve always worked, I’ve always paid into works pensions.

      I was planning for an works pension of £20k, and hoping for at least £10k pension, but end up with a £5k pension!

      My personal inflation cost of my food, heating is 20%, so my costs will double in 5years.

      I’m just breaking even now, I’ll be in real financial trouble in 5years!

      A land of milk and honey in British Union, not.

      Its a con. I was conned. I’ve been conned.

      Take heed. VOTE YES, before its to late.

      Even so I’ve better life than both my parents(infact all our parents) who were conscripted to fight in WW2 by the British Union. They got no thanks for it, nothing.

      The next world war(3) will be same script, get away from these British Union warmongers. In a newly independent Ireland there was no conscription, no involvement, no war dead, no war debt. Ireland was an INDEPENDENT country.

      I’ve always bettered myself by taking navy exams, and back to University in middle age. I’m very vocationally educated, trained and skilled.

      I’m fairly poor living on a £5k navy pension over last 5years. I’m bit better now living on £10k, with my £5k state pension.

      I’m starting to fear winters, can’t afford to heat my granite house. I’m better than some of our really poor, living only on state pension!

      In winters, there is only 2 essentials to maintain life, food and heat.

      I’m supporter of our Scottish government, but winter deprivation should be addressed immediately. In winter, the old, young and frail died prematurely due to the cold, its an outrage.

      But I’m really okay, I’m sitting in a £100k house in leafy Aberdeen, but increasingly can’t afford to heat. I’ll have to sell and get out before I’m too old to fix circumstances and outcomes.


      With the BRITISH UNION, its POVERTY and WARS!

      ps. Protect the NHS, it was the only reward our parents got for fighting in WW2.

    144. Bob Malcolm says:

      I don’t think there will be an outpouring of anger against English born Scottish residents if the vote goes No (God forbid) but I do think that many Scots will carry a lasting resentment against the London establishment and hopefully the biased media which supports them. The real divide here is not between Scotland and England but between London and the South East and the rest of the country. I completely disagree with the policies being pursued by all London based political parties, giving to the rich with one hand and taking from the poor with the other and will continue to resent these policies regardless of the outcome of the Referendum. I want a fairer society and to be governed by a parties elected by the people living here and that will not change. So after a no vote, will I be angry, upset and want another Referendum, then YES but I will not resent those who voted No (think them stupid and gullible) maybe.

    145. Cameron says:

      I would have to disagree Bob, as stated in my previous post. A No vote in my eyes is a betrayal of democratic progression, therefore making you either ("Tractor" - Ed)ous or gullible, like you said.

    146. Ich bin ein Ing-eerlandeer says:

      This goes against all evidence in the Sunday Times but this English YES voter has just had a YES leaflet put through his door by another English resident of this Highland Seaside town who is spending her Sunday afternoon working for an independent Scotland on September 18. I am determined to get off my arse soon and do likewise.

    147. Thepnr says:

      @Ich bin ein Ing-eerlandeer says:

      I am determined to get off my arse soon and do likewise.

      Good man, I’m proud of you. We all need to do our bit.

    148. Ken500 says:

      No one cares how people vote. It is the lies and deceit from the No Camp that people resent. To win a vote on fair and equal coverage is what the Democratic process is about.It is the lies and misrepresentation, a Westminster trait, that is causing the problems and resentment.

    149. Ken500 says:

      Before the landslide SNP Holyrood election, which the polls were saying Labour would win, from Braemar to Dundee all the posters on display were SNP. A couple of Tory billboards in rural areas (farmers?).

    150. CameronB Brodie says:

      What Calgacus MacAndrews said at 12:22pm.

      My own personal experience of door-to-door canvasing is limited to one RIC event in Dundee. It did seem as easy as knocking on a door and saying hello to a stranger. Again personally, I felt that introducing yourself as canvasing for electoral registration was a neutral starting point, from where you could develop your canvasing for Yes.

      I would make sure you have enough voter registration forms for each address to be visited, with free post envelopes if possible. I would think one per address should be sufficient to leave several st one address, if necessary.

      What my brother said, at 11:45am.

    151. Jim says:

      Good piece Rev.

      I have a Yorkshire born Yesser coming to dinner this evening but not the Yes Liverpudlian across the road.

      BT wants to make the Scots and English foreign to each other but how many of us know Irish people that are presumably foreign to us? The answer is none of us. We come and go at will.

      Self determination without borders is a concept they can’t understand or worse, don’t want to understand. Its quite a tragic thing and they should hang their heads in shame.

    152. Thumper the Rabbit says:

      I’m English-born – I’ve lived in Scotland for seventeen years because I love it, and for voting purposes I consider myself a Scot … and I will vote Yes.

      The comment on this poll is being whipped up by London media and Project Fear; don’t be taken in.

    153. Marty c says:

      Saw the two people in the picture at Silverburn shopping mall, Glasgow, yesterday. The man is a well known Labour activist and i’ve bumped into him a few times now. He even told me a few weeks back, where i’ve been delivering Yes newsletters etc:. By all accounts he is a particularly nasty piece of work.

      The woman gave me one of the BT lie leaflets, and i asked her for one positive case for the union ?. She came back with “the military”, which i obviously squashed (speaking as a Veteran). Then she brought out the old favourite “the pound”. Again i shot down her argument, to which she replied, “why don’t you ask your leader”. I’m sure she wanted to put Dear in front of leader.

      Back to the man in the picture. As you can see he is wearing a BT jacket and stickers on his face. Along comes our local MP, the double agent that is Ian Davidson for our sins, which of course means Lamont is our local MSP. Yes that place called Pollok (no c).

      As soon as Davidson arrived, the man ripped off his BT jacket and put on a United with Labour one. The bare faced double standards was shocking. They even complained to Silverburn management that we (SNP Activists handing out EU election leaflets) were there, and got us moved off Silverburn land. Fortunately that only meant to the other side of the road. Where people where quite happy to take our leaflets. As soon as the rain came on they headed into Silverburn. For which was no doubt, an all expenses paid for lunch via Davidson, which he will then claim back on his expenses.

    154. Minty says:

      Born in England and voting Yes.

      On another note, looking at the breakdown of that Panelbase -did anyone spot the ‘If the referendum were tomorrow, which way would you vote?’ response – 52% YES.

    155. Horseboy says:

      Got this email from SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon last week.
      It included an invite DOUBLE YOUR DONATION.

      “It’s great to see that Scottish entrepreneur Brian Souter and one of the architects of devolution, Canon Kenyon Wright, are backing a Yes vote.”

      “Brian’s also pledged to gift up to £1 million by matching pound-for-pound everything donated by each and every supporter of the SNP. So, please give what you can and donate now.”

      Essentially, “Brian Souter of Stagecoach” will equal your donation, now.

      I’ve very occassionally voted Labour, and Liberal in my 50 years of voting, but never again. My heart is highland.
      They’ve let us down, so many times, in so many ways. Can’t be trusted.

      If you are going to donate, we got to do it now. Now your SNP donation is doubled. I’m on a very small Navy £10k pension and today I’ve just given £1k, which will be matched by Brian Soutar.

      I’m ok, just. I can do it. If your going to do it, and importantly can do it, please do it, now. Its our once in lifetime chance to make change.

      If the European Election conflicts your donating, perhaps wait till day after European Election to make a SNP donation.

      ps. After the YES vote, Scots will have self-determination to elect a Scots government.

    156. fairiefromtheearth says:

      Oh cmon Rev Divide and Conqure, like ive said before WHO are they polling, is it the working class or Bearsdean residents, i know i could get any number i wanted in a poll by were i polled.

    157. fergie35 says:

      I know 4 English men who say things like ‘here in England’, but I know other English people who are very interested in Scotland and will vote yes, and they have respect for the Scots. Good and bad everywhere I suppose.
      Better together are paying sweetie money to Latvians to hand out leaflets in the north east

    158. Dr Ew says:

      @ Marty C

      If the face in the picture is of some boorish Labour bully, then the Rev’s captioning of “a face contorted into a provocative, mocking sneer” may well be accurate. I’ve certainly come across plenty such types over the years.

      I suppose my point was simply that isn’t how the face appears to me, and I’m very wary of monstering ordinary folk, especially through out of context images. And we need to keep our eye on the ball during this campaign by challenging lies, spurious arguments and vile smears. Basically, we need to be better than BT. Always.

    159. Morag Graham Kerr says:

      I did come across the No Lady from Hell yesterday, and she was indeed English. Insisted that if there was a Yes vote, she was “offski”. She didn’t want to live in a country that had decided it didn’t want to be a part of her country.

      Oddly enough, she mentioned Wings. (She brought it up, I don’t think she noticed my wee silver Wings badge.) “Wings over Bath. What church is he a reverend of anyway? Nasty person.” Obviously the rigorous fact-checking and scrupulous links to original sources isn’t converting them all.

      I won’t bore you with the conversation, but what really struck me were the contradictions. Most of all, that she was the one who was astonishingly wound up and upset, while I was being relatively calm. She laughed hollowly and rolled her eyes (she did a lot of that), and insisted that Yes could never win. But at the same time she was wound up like a cheap watch over it all.

      I’d be sorry if she decided to leave her beautiful house and fabulous garden just because the people in the country she had decided to live in voted for self-determination, but frankly, if she does, it will be good riddance.

    160. Frankie goes to Holyrood says:

      NOTE: QUESTION 14 in the new ICM poll </b?

      If, in September, you think the Tories are likely to win UK election, how will you vote?

      YES 40% NO 43% Don't Know 17%

      The NO lead is still only 3%, even WITH THE NEW “POST VOTE WEIGHTING” used by ICM


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