The limits of science
Last weekend’s edition of the Sunday Times gave an article to a Green activist and party worker – not billed as such, even though until last month he was on the party’s regional candidate list for Lothian – to predict that the Greens would get 10 seats at next month’s election.
Much campaigning by the various fringe parties for the Holyrood contest has been based on “seat predictors” like the one deployed to produce the figures in the piece, purporting to show that a tactical-voting strategy on the list can deliver a large gain in numbers of pro-independence MSPs compared to using both votes for the SNP.
We’ve examined that argument in considerable depth already, both theoretical and practical. But its also worth noting that so-called “seat predictors” are a rather shaky basis for making such bold forecasts.
Let’s illustrate that assertion.
The most commonly-used “seat predictor” is the Scotland Votes one produced by Weber Shandwick, who are a “public affairs agency”, whatever one of those is. After a tip-off from alert Wings contributor Doug Daniel, we spent the morning feeding some numbers into it for a bit of fun.
One of the first interesting things that happened was that when we entered the actual results of the 2007 Holyrood election, Labour won it instead of the SNP:
As it happened the seat numbers were almost bang on the money, but even the tiny inaccuracy made the most significant difference possible. We invite readers to ponder the Scotland of 2016 had Jack McConnell, not Alex Salmond, squeaked to victory by the narrowest of margins nine years ago.
But things got much zanier when we used some more extreme figures.
When we gave EVERY SINGLE VOTE in the election to the SNP, this happened:
Despite not registering a single vote, the opposition parties somehow still managed to secure five list seats. The outcome was the same if all the votes went to the Tories.
Oddly, if Labour got every vote, the opposition got just three seats:
Weirder yet, if the Liberal Democrats swept the board, not only did the opposition pick up five list seats for their zero votes, but the Lib Dems managed to lose one of their CONSTITUENCY seats (Clydesdale, currently held by the SNP) as well:
But it was when we suggested to the predictor a scenario where UKIP got every single constituency and list vote that it freaked out completely:
It couldn’t even call the results the same way twice – the party took two constituency seats in the Borders and both of the Northern Isles, but other seats went SNP, Labour or Tory seemingly at random, while the actual numbers in the table at the bottom right suggested that in fact they hadn’t been allocated to anyone at all.
Essentially, the predictor simply couldn’t cope at all with UKIP getting constituency votes – there’s clearly a pretty serious bug roaming around in the code there. So to give it a break we tried some (slightly) less fanciful data sets.
Giving all the constituency votes to the Tories and all the list ones to the SNP delivered the first entirely accurate results in the experiment – everything worked as it should, with the Tories getting all 73 constituency seats and the SNP all 56 list ones.
But when we gave the Lib Dems the constituency monopoly instead, an independent list MSP suddenly appeared out of nowhere and Clydesdale went back to the SNP.
If we gave all the list votes to either Labour or the Tories, more or less the same thing happened except that in BOTH cases Clydesdale apparently went Labour, but a rogue SNP MSP showed up in their seat in the chamber.
How about if we split both votes 50/50 between Labour and the SNP?
In that case the Lib Dems and Tories each win a CONSTITUENCY seat (Shetland and Roxburgh & Berwickshire respectively) for no votes. Obviously.
Whereas a Tory-Labour 50-50 carve-up sees the Lib Dems still holding Shetland but now the SNP get a LIST seat for some unfathomable reason.
While if we divide the two votes equally between the Parliament’s original coalition of Labour and the Lib Dems, there are still two opposition seats (one each to the Tories and SNP), but this time they’re BOTH on the list:
How about an extreme tactical voting scenario, where everyone’s constituency vote goes to the SNP but the list is polarised between the pro-indy Greens and UKIP?
The SNP rightly get all the constituencies, but rather than getting exactly half of the list seats each, for some reason UKIP get two more than the Greens. Harsh.
What about the ultimate hung parliament – the four main parties all getting exactly 25% of the vote each in both the constituencies and the list? Even-stevens?
Nope. The numbers are all over the shop, but Labour win the election by a clear margin and form the next government in some sort of Unionist coalition, with 39 seats to the Lib Dems’ 32 and the SNP and Tories’ 29 each.
And what if we narrow it down to 50/50 on the constituency vote but give one party all the list seats? Then the skew gets even stronger, to a startling degree:
On the EXACT SAME vote share, Labour get 43 seats while the SNP get just 28. (It doesn’t matter which party you give the 100% list vote to, they all get 56.)
Anti-SNP bias at work? Nope. If you split the constituency vote equally between the SNP and the Tories the gap grows to 46 to 26 in favour of the Nats. (We’ve given the Greens the list vote here for a bit of visual variety.)
Make it SNP (or Labour) vs Lib Dems and it’s more than 2:1 – a staggering 51 to 22 seats from, remember, identical vote shares:
And Labour versus the Tories on 50/50 vote shares comes out 45-27 (but this time it’s UKIP that wins the election by hogging the list votes):
And finally the Lib Dems and Tories splitting the constituency vote right down the middle has the unbalanced outcome of the Tories taking 47 seats to the Lib Dems’ 26, but 100% on the list puts the SNP out in front again:
(Basically the Lib Dems get a massively raw deal in the constituencies – no matter who they split it with, 50% of the vote always gets them well under 50% of seats. We haven’t the faintest idea what the rationale for that is.)
You probably got the idea at least half-a-dozen examples ago: “seat predictors” are cobblers. That’s not meant as any reflection on the hard-working coders at Weber Shandwick or elsewhere – it’s essentially an impossible job, since votes aren’t divided equally across the country and there’s just no way to get around that. (Although it’s hard to make excuses for not splitting list seats evenly on a 50-50 vote.)
Even attempting the task is pretty foolish. But it’s not as foolish as putting your faith in the results. If anyone says “Do what I say and you’ll get this desirable outcome because it says so on a seat predictor!”, treat them as if they’d just told you that alien lizards are putting mind-control drugs in chemtrails, readers.
Thanks for this Rev, i’ll read through and study it fully as my bedtime reading tonight. I only wanted to say that i detest this or any system that allows failures to enter via other routes. It’s just plain wrong and the system should be changed, but to what?
Shite in, shite out.
An interesting exercise in political predicti……..oooooo, look at the pretty colours!!!
So if the electorate votes 50% Labour & 50% Tory, then Tavish Scott is guaranteed his MSP Shetland seat back?
I can see why he might indeed support tactical voting. Although there’s a higher probability of a one legged man winning the arse kicking contest at this year’s Callander Highland Games.
2007 was very close. At the Dingwall count, Dave Thomson challenged the Returning Officer, Arthur McCourt over the numbers. There was a recount which gave Dave the list seat, which gave the majority and the rest, they say, is history…
Alien lizards and chem…oh look squirrels in white coats.
What was the margin of error, if there was such a thing quoted, in this predictor model? Always a tell tale sign that they are barking…
Honestly! You’re as bad as Kev but with scren shots instead of graphs 😀
There are lies, damned lies and statistics and the worst of these is statistical predictions.
Of course, defenders of tactical list voting will say “oh, but it’s not meant to work with unrealistic scenarios”. To which you might point at last year’s result, which even on polling day itself seemed like an unrealistic prospect…
But! but!… Aye OK… that’s us duly warned. 🙁
You have come up trumps again.
Still:
SNP x 2 is the best we can do folks and let the numbers be counted.
PS In my young days of the Battle of Britain they were called contrails from condensation trails, but con has a different meaning now and still apt for the picture in its position in the piece
Stoker: that’s an interesting point and in 2007 (and 2011) you would have have the SNP in a similar position to that which Labour found itself in with a number of ‘accidental’ MSPs. The SNP would have entered these elections expecting to be beaten in many constituency seats and picking up list seats when the opposite happened to a greater or lesser extent around the country
There are clearly more than a couple of oddities in there although thankfully I think Mr Coburn has ensured a UKIP clean sweep is unlikely
I am also sceptical about the 9 or 10 seats for the Greens thrown up by the model. I think they will do well in Lothian and Glasgow and may pick up 4 or 5 seats but will struggle to pick up seats in other lists
The big battle will be the list between Labour and the Tories who both seem to be around the 18% mark.
There’s an additional interesting ropey result:
If you have a ‘normal’ set of votes, but reduce the Lib Dems’ vote towards zero, they till hang on to the Shetlands constituency. Even at 0.1%. Even at 0%.
I can understand why the calculator thinks that the Shetlands is their safest seat, but at some point it should show a result based on the input figures.
Someone needs to update their code.
But point taken. There is no way of predicting the Additional Member System accurately.
SNP x 2 and Remain.
Like the previously,invisible chemtrails of yoon affluenza from the MSM/BBC.
A timely reminder,thanks.
SNP x 2
Another impressive post from the Rev. BellaCaledonia should post it on their website.
SNP x 2
Seat predictors? Tactical wheels? FFS!
Why can’t folk just vote on the evidence of their own eyes, their own ears, their own reasoning and their own guddam conscience?
Don’t let anyone tell you who to vote for. Folks should just get off their arses, do the research, examine their own life experience and make a choice.
Hint: The basic criteria is – what are you prepared to live with? Take it from there.
O/T to continue my occasional notes on BBC issues.
BBC Alba has an interesting series on Celtic Radicals. The final part is very sad focusing on the depopulation of the Highlands.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b012twjg/an-aghaidh-an-tsruthaceltic-radicals-episode-6
But this series was originally made in 1999 as the Scottish Parliament was under construction, before the Parliament, while Tony Blair reigned in Westminster.
It was first shown on BBC in 2011.
Who made it and where has it been lurking for 17 years?
@ 1AlanM (1.34pm)
Correct, Alan, i know all that but it makes no difference to my belief, it has and will always be wrong. If the public don’t like the sort of goods you’re trying to punt you change your stock. You don’t get rewarded with a gold pass to salesperson of the year.
😉
here’s the best guide to how to vote: look to see who the corporate media doesn’t want you to vote for and vote for them, assuming that your interests are different from wealthy business owners’ interests.
The way I look at it is … When you have PR, you choose the party whose policies best suit you and you vote for them in both votes. Why would you split your vote? It certainly isn’t a 1st & 2nd choice, though I have a horrible feeling some voters might think it is!
OK, there is a reason why you might split your vote – because your chosen party isn’t contesting your constituency.
My first reaction has to be, if they are serious, why aren’t they contesting all seats? Lots of parties stand in ‘no hope’ seats, but I take it as a mark of their commitment that they are genuine in their quest to have influence. I am highly sceptical of any party which doesn’t also stand in seats. I think they are playing the system to get a handful of seats at most, and frankly saying they aren’t serious players.
Playing the system entails encouraging people to split their vote. And, part of that is using dodgy science to make it look like your ideas on tactical voting are valid. I smell shite, frankly.
(The exception would be individuals standing as independents on the list.)
“treat them as if they’d just told you that alien lizards are putting mind-control drugs in chemtrails”
Which is exactly what I’ve been trying to tell you people.
I remember when David Icke tried to get into Canada they stopped him at customs and asked him if he really meant “Jews” when he said that “alien lizards” run the world…
Turns out he really meant alien lizards, he strenuously argued his case and convinced them, and they deemed it safe to let him into the country.
If I was lizard, I’d probably be raging about that.
Broken coding model. That is all.
Purposefully broken model. Much more likely.
Useless – definitely.
Twist your seat predictor into an interesting shape and force it up your arse. I voted (and worked for) the SNP for a quarter of a century, during most of which the seat predictor said that our seats were just the cold damp benches outside the building. Gosh, how times change.
I’ll be voting Green and I’m OK (politically speaking) sleeping rough on a damp bench outside. Been there before.
Tiocfaidh ár lá.
Maybe the predictor accounts for the already known postal votes separately?
I remain convinced that any form of division of the SNP vote will benefit a unionist party and probably Labour.
I have one Primary goal and that is Independence. The makeup of Holyrood after that goal is important bu secondary.
If we ever lose the pressure on Westminster by softening the SNP mandate then we will be set back 20 or 30 years.
Always remember that the unionist parties are waiting for the chance to form a government at Holyrood using the PR system as it was originally designed to keep out the SNP. The lead over individual parties may be large but as Better Together proved the unionists will act together. Think of the damage such an alliance would wreck on Scotland and it’s people in order to keep a union that benefits Westminster instead of the people of this nation.
It heartening to even software not stomaching the idea of UKIP in Totalitarianism
O/T Reporting Scotland
I’ve always been meaning to mention this but keep forgetting due to other topics but for those who actually watch BBC Reporting Scotland, forget for a second about the crap they talk and just take a good look at the screen
Program opens with a flood of Red White and Blue across the screen, the studio is in Red White and Blue, if a reporter or member of the public is interviewed their name comes across the bottom of the screen in Red White and Blue bars after the weather and the program is closing a map of Scotland is flooded across the screen in Red White and Blue
with the sea in White
Now tell us we’re paranoid
STV are not guilty of this their screen shows Blue White and Black and the sea is shown in varying shades of natural looking Blue when they do the weather
The attempt by RISE and Greens to make hay…has the potential to split the Indy vote, which of course could result in a minority SNP government.
If this happens, because of all these false ‘tactical’ predictors and the push from Mike over at Bella et al. Notwithstanding what cat has said about there being some regions where voting Green would keep unionists out, then imo it’s unlikely that the SNP would be able to maintain the momentum for another referendum.
If that turns out to be what happens in May. Personally, I’m done.
If RISE and the Greens cannot see that Independence outweighs their bandwagon unionist rhetoric about ‘good opposition’ and how they are feeding intae the ‘one party state’ pish, they’ll never receive my vote, in or out of the Union.
If they split the vote, it’ll be mair than ‘a generation’ before we ever have this unique set of circumstances in play, if ever, again.
In that case we may as well baton down the hatches and watch idly as they tear themselves apart at Holyrood. As the entire Unionist machine breathes a collective sigh of relief…and ‘business as usual’ resumes unabated.
I wish, just once that people would get it. We put 56 MP’s intae Westminster. They are making a difference. We need to put a majority SNP admisitration intae Holyrood, it will make a difference. We have tae come together tae achieve this.
And having accomplished this, we know what the next step is: 2017.
The only way we get to our destination is tae keep marching in the right direction.
RISE and Greens are sidetracks…and lovely as those little off the beaten paths are, as visions of possibility. The only way they become even close to manifesting as a reality in Scotland is when we are actually Independent.
SNP x 2 For probabilities not possibilities.
For me these seat predictor thingys are just for fun. I never take them seriously, but there again how can I … I’m the village idiot around these parts I take nothing seriously! 😀
It is interesting though that it appears, at least to me, that certain party supporters/voters seem to put a fantastic amount of belief in these seat predictor thingys like they were gospel or something. 😉
There is only one seat “predictor” that matters and that is the election on May 5th so it will be BOTH VOTES S.N.P. for me. I have no intention of putting anything to chance and risking the Poisoned Dwarf or any of her cohorts getting in. 🙂
You can see what’s coming…
Coburn: “Absolutely, Bernard! Polls show that UKIP is on course to win the Scottish election.
Ponsonby: “Do you have a source for that claim, Mr Coburn or are you just making things up again?”
Coburn: “I saw it on Wings Over Scotland. Check it out for yourself, Bernard if you think I’m just making these figures up.”
Ponsonby: “Jesus wept!”
^^^^^^^^
What K1 says (2:13pm)
have post vote
Is Lothian region first past post or percentage
ie–if a candidate had 15% would they get elected
I had a short email exchange with the guy that runs that web site just over a year ago. I was pointing out weird anomalies in the percentage of votes the programme was giving to the Lib Dems – tiny fractions of a percent in some seats and a third of the vote in neighbouring seats.
He just waffled and went all defensive, saying the votes the Lib Dems were losing had to come from somewhere so they were being taken off seats they didn’t currently hold or something. He broke off the correspondence when I got a bit more technical than that.
I didn’t try any really extreme predictions, but it’s obvious the algorithms are quite flaky. The Lib Dem anomaly holds for quite a lot of English constituencies as well. It’s pretty, and it’s a reasonable rough guide, but it’s nowhere close to an accurate predictor.
“The ghosts in the machine”
Trying to make science out of indefinitive data, results in a brain fart!
Stu did have a lot of fun with that predictor almost exactly five years ago though. I think it was that post that first turned me on to Wings and made me a regular reader.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/how-many-chickens/
Quite a few people are trying to persuade everyone that it’s in the bag, a foregone conclusion.
Personally, I’m feeling a wee bit nervous, and I will be until I see Nicola Sturgeon elected as the First Minister of another SNP majority government.
Personally, I’m feeling a wee bit nervous,
Me too. If I was in charge of say BBC attack propaganda, I’d be going for coalition Holyrood, with UK staying in EU. Bish bosh, end of independence, UKOK strike back begins in earnest.
Its why yoonsters picked the PR they did, nice display of hardcore yoon trust us with coalition bullshit in action here
http://archive.is/FVcMH
The LibDems have repeatedly ruled out any deal with the SNP at Westminster after May 7, arguing a party which is against the UK should not be allowed to run it.
However Rennie made it clear there was no ban on working with the SNP at Holyrood.
Speaking of his respect for First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, he said: “I admire her in many ways. There’s no doubt that she’s got talent, and I can work with her.”
Asked if that meant he could work with the SNP in coalition, he said: “Yes, possibly. I mean absolutely, absolutely. I think it’s not impossible. We’ll consider all the factors when it comes to the time, because so much can change over the next year.”
What a difference a LibDem year makes. Ruthie Babes much the same.
Voting SNP is absolutely unambiguous. Westminster is shitting itself.
Give them both barrels. SNP TWICE.
If you want Scotland to become Independent, you have to vote SNP for both votes, anything else would just be utter madness.
Twist your seat predictor into an interesting shape and force it up your arse.
Yeah, but you think I’m working for MI5, so what does that say?
heedtracker says:
Speaking of his respect for First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, he said: “I admire her in many ways. There’s no doubt that she’s got talent, and I can work with her.”
Asked if that meant he could work with the SNP in coalition, he said: “Yes, possibly. I mean absolutely, absolutely. I think it’s not impossible. We’ll consider all the factors when it comes to the time, because so much can change over the next year.”
There is just one itsy bitsy teeny weeny little problem for wee Willie Winkie there Heedtracker. Would the S.N.P. actually want to be seen to be working with HIM?
I think we all know the answer to that question … don’t we folks? 😀
“We invite readers to ponder the Scotland of 2016 had Jack McConnell, not Alex Salmond, squeaked to victory by the narrowest of margins nine years ago.”
———-
Yep, Cunninghame North was won by the SNP by 48 votes.
So 24 individuals switching from Labour to SNP changed the Scottish Government.
Or the ‘Executive’ as it was known then.
Without the SNP being able to demonstrate competent government, we would never have had a majority in 2011 and the first referendum.
When thinking about tactical voting, we don’t need to use dubious voting simulations. We already have SOLID PROOF from 2011 that SNP+SNP can deliver a pro-indy majority and a referendum. Nothing can be taken for granted, and the list seats were all needed.
IMO, it would be nice to see a few more Greens, but why should SNP supporters take a risk dividing the vote and spoiling a winning strategy?
Stu – That’s a really helpful analysis.
Here’s the health warning from another seat forecaster:
“Please bear in mind that polls are only a bit of fun, and so too is this. No forecaster like this can take account of local demographic changes, of the strongest campaigns in each constituency, the candidate everyone hates, or any of the countless factors that will influence every result next month.”
http://www.cutbot.net/general/cutbots-holyrood-seat-forecaster/
Morag: that chickens post from 5 years ago is fascinating. SNP to win 53 seats? Ahahahaha. Only two weeks before the election and the predictor is WAY out, either it, the poll or both were completely wrong. Or did Ian Gray’s subway moment really have that much influence??!
Lib Dems forgot to put in their nomination papers for Clydesdale in 2011, which would explain the various discrepancies relating to that constituency.
ClanDonald, you have to enlarge the image but it actually predicts 63 seats, not 53. It’s not far out on basic total seat numbers, considering that it was taken from an opinion poll a couple of weeks before the election.
What it doesn’t get right is which seats were actually won by which party.
Luigi says:
“Personally, I’m feeling a wee bit nervous”
Definitely! The polls say SNP about 55:45 on constit:list. Polls are frequently inaccurate. If, in the day, the vote slipped much from that then it will be no overall majority. No Indy, possibly never.
At Westminster you can get an overall majority with 36.8%, as Cameron achieve. This gave him 330 seats. Labour on 30.5% got just 232 seats.
The Holyrood system was designed to ensure the SNP could never get an overall majority with those sort of figures.
In 2011 the SNP achieved a small majority with 45.4/44.0%. This gave 53 constituency and 16 list seats.
NOTE, 16 list seats.
As this article shows, the maths and predictions are impossible. However if the Unionists can hang on to some of their 20 constituencies and too many of the SNP’s list votes go to others, then FAILURE IS POSSIBLE!
We cannot afford any slip ups in this election. The UKOK wolves are just waiting for the chance to tear apart all our good work. Email just arrived from oor Nicola. Please feel free to cut and paste and forward to your family and friends who are not members.
You’ve got mail
Dear ######,
Postal ballot packs are starting to land on doormats across Scotland today.
Delivery of postal votes marks an important point in any election.
Many postal voters will make their decision and vote today. And I’m asking them to choose me as their First Minister.
I am immensely proud of what’s been achieved by the SNP since 2007, but I am ambitious to do so much more.
A re-elected SNP government will give our children a better start in life with more opportunities, transform our NHS, and deliver more and better paid jobs too.
If you’re voting by post, please cast both votes SNP. Do your bit to re-elect an SNP government and me as First Minister.
And if you’ve got family and friends who are deciding how to vote, take the opportunity today to encourage them to cast both votes SNP.
This election is important. Only the SNP has the strength, the unity and the vision to keep Scotland moving forward.
Together, we can move Scotland forward.
Nicola Sturgeon
SNP Leader
What happens if there is an exit poll?
I’ve just had a wee bit of fun with that seat forcaster Frank.
I put in the poll results from the You Gov site.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ngteikz0fp/YG-trackers-Scotland.pdf
Amazingly the results came out with:
SNP on 73 seats
Lab on 27 seats
Tory on 23 seats
Ld’s on 4 seats
Greens on 2 seats
Of course the You Gov thingy only gave individual figures for the SNP, Labour, Tories, LD’s and Greens. Hey ho, like I said earlier I only do this for a wee bit of light relief. 😀
I have just had a wee further look at the Cutbot’s site and they have a set of results based on a TNS opinion poll. Whilst I am none too happy to see ANY RED or BLUE I have to admit to being a wee bit YEE HA as well. 😉 I’ve checked what they say about my Dumfriesshire constituency. As a certain Sergeant Major used to say:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4uivPpzCGo
There would be NO Poisioned Dwarf in Holyrood, she is only standing in the constituency vote! 😀
Unfortunately the Junior Viceroy of Scotland would slither into Holyrood under the List vote. DAMN!
Still as I say it is all fun and games … the only REAL set of figures I’m interested in come on May 5th all the rest are just for fun! 😀
ooft now my head hurts lol
tinfoil hats on time guys lol
Its the way the yoons set it up Rev the lib dems allowed this thinking that they would always be in coalition with Labour running the parliament,nobody thought the SNP would come along and break their little scam and the worst case scenario for the yoons would be a rainbow coalition bringing the blue tories in.
Well like everything else Labour plan it fell to pieces the yoons never got the chance with Eck going minority government on them (he doesnt get the credit he deserves for that one).
I also believe this mess up by Labour is what cost them a UK government with the lib dems and why Clegg told broon the loon to get on his bike, you see the Scottish parliament was the way the lib dems could actually get lib dems doing the job of government instead of pretending to do a job that someone else has and if that person lost it they are not even next in line for it.
Thats why the lib dems are so grumpy in Scotland it was not what their best of buddies the red tories promised awww what a shame.
@ bookie from hell
The Lothian vote is for the regional list, and proportional; your consituency vote is FPTP.
There isn’t an exact percentage required to get elected, it depends on the results achieved by other parties on the list (and in the constituencies if they stand there too).
Is 15% enough? In 2011 the LDs got just over 13% in the Highlands and Islands, but did not get any list seats because they won 2 constituencies. Elsewhere, they did get list seats on about 6%, because they won no constituencies. So your question cannot be answered without further information, which will not be available until the votes are counted.
It seems to me that most of the regulars on here have a conflict of interest when it comes to the fight against RISE and the Greens. By that I mean you are all basically leftist tree-huggers in nationalist guises.
You are are conflicted. Having temporarily given up on socialism and environmentalism for the sake of the independence cause, it must be awkward for you to find yourselves now pitted against those causes. And to make matters worse, those parties have given a clear commitment to a second referendum whereas the party that you (we) have thrown in our lot with has not.
Maybe you should let me deal with RISE and the Greens, then. I’ll say the things you can’t be seen saying for fear of scaring the horses.
RISE are a shower of pseudo-Maxist losers. It’s that simple. Most of them have already been rejected by voters on several occasions. They proved even too thick to see that shooting their very own meal ticket, Tommy Sheridan, would cost them. They are totally unelectable. The sensible centre of Scotland will never vote for that sort of intellectual onanism.
For a multitude of complex reasons, The Green movement lacks credibility nowadays. Most mainstream parties have incorporated green ideas into their manifestos and that has weakened the Green Party massively. The sort of environmental extremism the Greens have naturally turned to in response echoes in the ears of most sensible people as a bonkers alarm.
The SNP are left enough and shouldn’t go any farther in that direction. If they do they risk losing the sensible centre and you can’t do anything without them. At the same time, they are as green as the Greens were say 15 years ago.
The big difference between voting Green or RISE and voting SNP is that with the SNP there’s a good chance manifesto commitments will be realised. That’s why voting SNP twice matters; the alternatives are not only bonkers they are futile forms of masturbation that will lead to nothing more than a few stubborn stains.
The same applies to independence. The Greens and RISE can commit to that because nobody takes their commitments seriously. Their commitments mean nothing.
With great power comes great responsibility and the opposite is also true; with no power comes no responsibility.
0/T
Scottish ‘mince’
https://archive.is/ufdPx
Stalked by Wullie Rennie and the postman always rings thrice!
Three Lib/Dem leaflets from Wullie three days running by the postie. 🙁
“One of the best performers in Holyrood” ‘The Hootsman’
Sounds like the sort of calculator the Scotsman uses
Any vote you like unionist win
I’ll say this for the Greens, I think they genuinely believe they have a chance of winning a decent number of seats because they seem to be working hard in my area. I’ve had Green canvassers and several leaflets and mail shots through the door the past week or two.
Only other party I’ve heard a peep from is the SNP, not even a single sighting of the unionist parties. If the Greens hard work pays off and they get even 10 list seats that would perhaps otherwise have been Tory or Labour I’ll applaud that.
The SNP are left enough and shouldn’t go any farther in that direction. If they do they risk losing the sensible centre and you can’t do anything without them. At the same time, they are as green as the Greens were say 15 years ago.”
They are broadly similar to what Labour was before James Callaghan brought them to the end of that era. Huge differences on nukes and ofcourse self government but compare and contrasting SNP policies with the current red tory SLab freak show in action today, let alone the Bomber Bliar/Crash Gordon disaster, is a big mistake, for you.
Scottish voters are probably a bit clearer though.
@Janet
Voting SNP is absolutely unambiguous. Westminster is shitting itself.
Give them both barrels. SNP TWICE.
Janet I like your style, both barrels it is. Nothing could be clearer and we want them to fear us.
Radio shortbread confirming that some schools could be closed for weeks even months. (Ayr right! maybe more)
Edinburgh council is withholding their £1.5M per month … I’ll write that again.
That’s £1,500,000 per month which is their costs under the PFI contract.
They are also considering compensation. 🙁
No politician was hurt or involved in the recording of the discussion including Deputy Deadwood who is standing in Edinburgh
Good old auntie! 🙂
NeoconNat
“…you are all basically leftist tree-huggers in nationalist guises.”
Why do you insist in writing BTL on this blog to tell people here that they’re “all” this or that? Who the hell do you think you are to make such sweeping statements? Only a moron would do such a thing. Are you a moron? No? Then stop making sweeping generalisations on people you know eff all about.
The ‘Nat’ in your alias must surely stand for ‘BritNat’. At least, that’s how it seems to me.
crazycat says:
“In 2011 the LDs got just over 13% in the Highlands and Islands, but did not get any list seats because they won 2 constituencies. Elsewhere, they did get list seats on about 6%, because they won no constituencies.”
Roughly, very roughly, if you take the list percentage and divide it by the seats allocated so far plus one, if the results is greater than 5%, you could get list seats.
As you say, it does depend on other parties’ figures.
In 2011 the LDs got 3 list seats.
In MidScotland Fife they got 5.9% giving Willie Rennie his list seat.
In South Scotland Jim Hume got a seat with 5.4%.
In the NE Allison McInnes got in with 6.8%.
If the LDs drop much below this, there may be no LDs from these three regions.
However, even if the Carmichael Scandal damages them in Orkney and/or Shetland, they will like get at least one list instead. Sadly.
Total wipeout is possible, but unlikely.
@Neoconnat, You’re a fine troll, but there is an element of truth there.
I would far rather see Greens and RISE than unionist MSPs, but if they were needed to gain a majority for a second independence referendum, they would have the SNP bent over a barrel.
Independence isn’t their #1 priority, and if the SNP was forced to the hard left, we would have less chance of winning that second referendum.
The only realistic path towards self-government is taking the centre of the country with us. That means some tactical thinking from those on the left and forgetting about 60p tax rates. After independence, SNP support would naturally split into traditional left and right politics.
Progressive or ‘radical’ politics is more likely to have a far better chance in an independent Scotland, but if ever there was a day we had a right wing Scottish government, I could live with that so long as it was the choice of the Scottish people. IMO, basic democracy is at the heart of the independence debate.
I’ve had a small number of leaflets but they were all delivered by the postie. No sign of any activists. We had a street stall in the village the weekend before last, with no opposition. This is in a constituency which was solid LibDem until 2011, and in which a lot of the LibDem votes seem to have gone back to the Tories. (We expect the SNP vote to be around 30-35%.)
In contrast we’ve leafleted the entire village twice by hand (two leaflets at each drop), and we were ready to do a third run but the campaign manager has called us off saying it would be overkill.
We’re still working on the more rural areas, but I was out this morning driving round farms and isolated settlements and there are other teams working on other districts. That’s the second time round for these properties as well.
The Tories will be telephone canvassing and getting their well-heeled and geriatric vote out that way, but there’s absolutely no sign of boots on the ground apart from us. The non-SNP vote is largely legacy party support and some very rabid BritNats who don’t care how competent the SNP government is.
Call me dave I wouldn’t be surprised if the BBC somehow managed to turn the school closures thing into a positive story and then we will start to hear labour being mentioned. Wait for labour labour local authorities save millions by taking on private companies who have been accused of leaching millions from the public purse.
Its quite simple Neo they are not ready yet as political parties they are fringe parties they have no idea how to govern or could for that matter and so collect strays,their view is spintered through individualism and the mad clamber to climb up the UK political greasy pole, yes they are for indy but then indy is not a political ideology and is a broad church we even have a few neo liberals want it 😉
Now thats not me being desparaging of them because i remember another party that was exactly the same way back when i was a wee lad,it was full of nutters and lefties a few mad right wingers as well but very few moderates,it went through decades of soul searching always on the fringe trying to kick lumps out the system and getting nowhere,splits and fights until one day it grew up.
So i am always glad to see more people getting involved in politics regardless of their ideals if Rise/green becomes a grown up political party and isnt culled off by infighting then good luck to them but they should expect that to take oh about 50 years.
Though i have to say i am a bit surprised we havnt seen a center right party appear for indy,this misconception that indy is to the left is just yoon bullshit.
I’m off down the abattoir, to have a swatch at some entrails; probably as effective.
Yes, Proud Cybernat, ‘we’ have noticed that tendency… =grin=
The predictor appears to be based on 2007 when the Lib Dems didn’t stand a candidate in Clydesdale.
There are only 12 names on the list for each party in each region, if most of those names are also in constituencies then the 100%/100% would result in a situation where you run out of candidates.
Taking the North East in 2011 for example, on 100%/100% 10/10 constituencies would have been SNP, with 7 list seats left to distribute. the 1st and 2nd list seat would go to the 11th and 12th names on the SNP list. at which point there would be 5 seats left to fill with no remaining SNP candidates.
The Returning officer would have to take all the parties that were tied at that point (which would be all of them on 0 votes) and draw lots/cut cards or toss coins accordingly.
What Onwards said at 4.28 pm. I wish more people understood this.
I do understand people voting for a party they passionately support even if it doesn’t appear to have a snowball’s chance in hell. I did it myself for decades, and then look what happened. What I resent is that these people are making a dishonest and deceitful argument to sway people who are generally inclined to vote elsewhere, rather than making a case on their own merits.
If RISE and Green supporters put party advantage over independence that’s their choice and a perfectly valid one it is too. But they should be honest about it. Instead they’re falsely claiming that SNPx2 is “putting party advantage over independence”, and if that argument actually does damage the independence movement (as well it might) I for one will never forgive them.
A pro-indy election pact would have been the safest option for minimizing the number of Unionist members but would have had to have been agreed and arranged a year ago and firmly promoted since then.
The best remaining option for the past few months has been SNP 1 & 2.
Make sure you are registered to vote.
There’s a nice live Q&A with Mhairi Black & Humza Yousaf on facebook right now. The Q’s are piling in though.
That Q&A’s on facebook. oops
https://www.facebook.com/theSNP/
Proud Cybernat,
“most of the regulars” isn’t “sweeping” and isn’t even a generalisation.
If I said “all” the regulars, that would be a generalisation.
Stop being serious and stroppy over nothing; you give a bad impression.
I know you love that “how very dare you” stuff, but it would be wasted on a guy like me making light-hearted statements about politics.
Resist the temptation to respond and try and convince me you are really offended by any of this. There’s no need.
The wee mannies in the chamber look like jelly babies.
@Onwards
I totally agree with your post. For me this is about the democratic choice of the Scottish electorate. Sure, personally I’d prefer the SNP who look likely to be running our government for at least the next 5 years to be a little more left wing.
Truth is though, for me at least they are the ONLY potential government that will bring Scotland her Independence. As an alternative to a Tory led Westminster government or even a Labour led Scottish government the SNP sweep the board. Just common sense.
The Indy support and by association SNP support has increased so much almost certainly down to ex Labour supports like me finding out the truth about New Labour and dumping them.
We still need more to do so, the chances of winning many Tories over to the cause is small, NeoconNat is a NOT a good example of the Tories I would like to attract.
Finally, I would just like to say that I do believe that SNP, this time will once again have a majority in the Scottish Parliament and a mandate therefore from the Scottish people to hold another referendum if they so choose.
Will the be the case in 2020? Like you and the predictor above I have no idea, if an opportunity presents itself such as the EU referendum or anything else currently unforseen I believe we must take it.
First step is ensuring an SNP majority, that means SNP 1 and 2.
Onward, you’ve never been more correct;
“if the SNP was forced to the hard left, we would have less chance of winning that second referendum.”
That’s all that should matter right now, getting independence.
This troll label isn’t fair since I’m a fruitcake in real life too. We need a new category of some sort.
DerekM: “i have to say i am a bit surprised we havnt seen a center right party appear for indy”
That’s what I’m working towards. So far I have two people who are interested although one of them keeps trying to sell me scented candles.
“Resist the temptation to respond and try and convince me you are really offended by any of this. There’s no need.”
You made a sweeping generalisation of the folks who frequent this blog BTL. Stop trying to back-track. It’s there in black and white for anyone to see, no matter what weasle words you use to try and disdtance yourself from the self-evident meaning.
From your previous poting I get the very strong sense that you would aregue with yourself in an empty room about the colour of shite.
Just stop making your sweeping generalisations, act responsibly and you might just have a chance of convincing me you are not a BritNat troll.
So far, however…
DerekMsaid:
Interesting point that. If there are any people within the nominally Unionist parties (even the Tories) that would eventually switch to supporting independence under the pressure of diminishing electoral returns, they are all keeping their heads well down at the moment for the sake of party unity. Maybe the coming election results will start to shake the tree. Some time ago, Sillars (with others) tried to create a pro-indy Scottish Labour Party, I seem to recall, but the move was premature then.
I don’t think that being centre-right necessarily makes you irreversibly anti-indy, though. (That’s the preserve of the BNP, Orangists, etc.)
Onwards says:
“Independence isn’t their #1 priority, and if the SNP was forced to the hard left, we would have less chance of winning that second referendum. The only realistic path towards self-government is taking the centre of the country with us.”
I agree completely with that analysis. I believe if the far left begin to be seen as the face of Indy, then it’s all over.
While the left did campaign for IndyRef1, I do sometimes wonder if – for every Yes vote gained by Sheridan’s “comrades” talk, another might have been lost from the middle ground.
Looking at the groups where NO were strongest, in most respects they represent the opposite of the enthusiastic left.
I hope there will be a place for everyone in an independent Scotland, however for the moment the pro Indy centre needs to expand outwards in both directions. If the pro Indy bloc moved left (or more unlikely, moved right) then it won’t take increased support on board, it will lose support.
We will never convert the hardcore BritNat Tories, but we need to convince more right of centre voters.
@NeoconNat
This troll label isn’t fair since I’m a fruitcake in real life too
It hasn’t passed unnoticed.
Proud Cybernat: “You made a sweeping generalisation of the folks who frequent this blog”.
No, we can falsify that very easily. Here’s what I said without edits or omissions;
“It seems to me that most of the regulars on here have a conflict of interest when it comes to the fight against RISE and the Greens. By that I mean you are all basically leftist tree-huggers in nationalist guises.”
Aside from the question of how seriously a sane person might take a statement like that, not to mention how inoffensive it is, we can see that I referred to “most of the regulars” which isn’t a generalisation as I understand it.
And when I said “you are all” it is clear that I was again referring to the same group which was… drum roll… “most of the regulars”.
There isn’t even ambiguity in that.
You must have something more meaningful you could be pretending to take offence at.
Anyway, in the spirit of cooperation, are you interested in buying scented candles by any chance? I’m asking on behalf of a friend.
No if’s , no buts , it MUST be SNP X 2 this time round .
galamcennalath, Onwards
You are both correct. The indyref energised many on the left who felt abandoned by Labour and the ever-fractious fringe left groupings, but if anything it largely scared the centre-right. They are not the monolithic “silent majority” of yoon propaganda, since many of them may vote SNP in the coming election, but they do tend to see independence as a chasm of uncertainty rather than as a golden opportunity for a better future for us and our kids. That’s the argument that still has to be won.
Which is why the SNP are being so cautious going in to this election. Nothing is possible if they don’t achieve a majority.
“You must have something more meaningful you could be pretending to take offence at.”
Like said before – I get the sense that you would happily argue with yourself in an empty room about the colour of shite.
And you can take your pal’s candles and shove them where the sun don’t shine. Better still, use fork handles.
Now away to a BritNat site where your neocon rantings will be more appreciated. Oh and this will be my last response to you on this little spat because I am well aware how the BritNat trolls operate – love to create discourse and thus put people off reading the thread.
It’s not going to happen, bub.
TTFN.
Oh and SNP x 2 + EU IN
Nice trails.
Earlier today I received my FREE copy of East Ren’s ‘The Extra’ paper, hand delivered through my letterbox. The difference being, it ALWAYS gets left on the doorstep, so this was a first.
Took a look outside and there was a team-handed squad of paper-persons delivering the same way to all the houses. What service eh?
SO I takes a gander inside the paper and what do I find on Page 15.. a full page advertisement from the Scottish Conservatives saying what they say best, nothing.
The curious thing is.. the lead article on the inside cover, regarding the honouring of a war hero, is continued on LHS Page 14. That’s quite convenient article placement don’t you think? Coincidence or what? I think not (no disrespect to the gent btw.)
Time for a walk from “Eastwood to Holyrood” 😉
Higher top ups for older woman pensioners says Deputy Deadwood, all found down the back of the Scottish sofa that keeps on giving.
——————————————————–
The Scottish Labour leader said her party would top up the pensions of women affected by changes to the system from Westminster.
Ms Dugdale said Labour would write to 80,000 women affected by changes, saying: “Through no fault of their own they are going to be worse off because of these changes.
————————————————————
It’s not even a devolved function,but hey ho,they don’t care because they’re in a quandary.
Why it’ll be Man sheds next! What’s she like eh!
Left, centre-left, centre, centre-right, right.
What does that mean?
Very little as far as Independence is concerned. You either support Independence or you don’t and going by the result in the referendum we still need a few more on our side and I’ll take anyone we can get.
Their is no left or right only Independence or Union. Nothing more.
call me dave said:
Ah, but they’ll do it when Labour win a majority at Westminster in 2020, won’t they?! =cough=
In other words call me dave, Dugdale is jumping on the SNP’s Mhairi’s Black’s work on this issue…they said fuck all about it until Mhairi raised the profile in the commons…they cannae even find a policy oan their ain.
Meanwhile did Labour ‘abstain’ when these new pension ages where being re arranged at the time…answers oan a poststamp.
Just a thought – but when the programmers wrote the code and algorithms maybe the had the foresight to factor in the wide spread corruption that 700,000 postal votes with allow.
After Ruth’s admission during the refurendum on live tv that she had seen the postal votes I had hoped another more full proof system might have been suggested and put in place.
I know how paranoid I sound but I don’t trust these unionist one bit. There’s too much for them to lose.
O/T Liam ‘O Hare put a tweet out earlier today, stating that Nicola Sturgeon wasn’t going to attend a hustings because Tommy Sheridan was on the platform.
Nicola Sturgeon just tweeted Liam ‘O Hare that this was incorrect.
Can I just say rumours and gossip just don’t ‘cut’ it anymair what wi social media immediately quashing such pish. I’d like to know exactly where ‘O Hare sourced this rumour from?
He’s even ‘insinuated’ Nicola’s tweet as ‘confirming’ that she will be appearing ‘despite’ Tommy Sheridan.
Think some people are up tae mischief here…big time.
Heedtracker
Thanks for the link to the Q & A. Followed it but can’t get the thing to play. Looking at the comments, I’m not the only one. Mine is just stuck on the still of Mhairi & Humza with the loading symbol spinning merrily away but nothing happening.
Perhaps the stream is overloaded-there’s 3.4k watching
@ K1
Of course there is mischief, surely you wouldn’t expect otherwise.
Divide and Conquer, sure you’ve heard of it. Fuck them I won’t be divided nor conquered and that is what worries them most.
SNP X 2 GIRFUY
@call me dave says:
14 April, 2016 at 5:10 pm
“Higher top ups for older woman pensioners says Deputy Deadwood, all found down the back of the Scottish sofa that keeps on giving.”
——–
Yeah, I saw that. Catering to their core vote with their magic money tree. Vastly exaggerated estimates from their tax grab will be used to promote a whole range of giveaways they won’t have to actually deliver.
There is a potential danger coming up in that Labour will not be unveiling its manifesto until 8 days before the vote, so they can gazump the SNP with last minute promises.
http://www.thenational.scot/politics/snp-deride-labour-manifesto-delay.16322
No doubt more cash will be conjured up to go all out on a last minute ‘spectacular’..
A new Vow.. mostly likely on the NHS or education.
We all saw how the indyref Vow held back a Yes vote.
Will enough voters be fooled this time ?
If the SNP does slip in the polls due to last minute false promises, then every list vote will be needed. Both barrels as mentioned above.
Does my seat calculator look big in this?
SNPBADASS 2!
🙂 Thpnr
The LSE’s Democratic Audit predicts a landslide for the SNP in the constituencies, but the Lib Dems might hold the islands and the Tories do well in the south. But Labour will lose heavily.
http://www.democraticauditscotland.com/scotland-will-continue-to-be-a-psephologists-delight-for-the-foreseeable-future/
Thepnr wrote:
“There is no left or right only Independence or Union.”
With you all the way on that. Let every individual, organisation or other classify themselves and fight to gather support in their own ways and beliefs, promoting their own ideas, and then come the final referendum we will all pull together under the one banner again.
Do this and next time we will be back bigger, stronger, fitter and far better prepared for the fight. The blue tories have long since started their campaigning for the fight with their relentless attempts to demonise any idea of a referendum and they don’t give a jobby how they do it just as long as they do it.
We must all find our own ways to convince others and bolster our numbers, whether it be football fans getting the message out among their own, or the man in the pub passing round the ready-rubbed, or down at the mixed doubles bowling, or the students increasing the recruiting around the Universities etc etc etc.
No left, no right, bring all the souls towards the light.
Feck, am a poet an ah dinny no-it 🙂
Robert J. Sutherland says:
“They are not the monolithic “silent majority” of yoon propaganda, since many of them may vote SNP in the coming election, but they do tend to see independence as a chasm of uncertainty rather than as a golden opportunity for a better future”
Yes, all sorts of opinion. One interesting group are those who didn’t vote Yes last time, but would vote next time if it were provoked by EngExit of the EU dragging Scotland along. Also SNP voters who voted no (as you say).
For me the common concern of soft NO (and soft Yes) groups is their fear of the direction an Indy Scotland might take,
They probably want to see things continue much as at present except decisions made for Scotland by Scots, resulting in incremental changes for the better. In Scotland we do have a wide concensus for decent services, no WMDs and foreign wars, greater equality and opportunities. More so than England.
Any suggestions of big lurches to the Left (or Right), and the game’s a bogie. Everything the SNP do would appear to following the approach of showing moderation, in a Scottish context.
@K1
Yeah, clocked that tweet. Utter bollox.
The FMs answer is all that counts. The original twatter should recall what happened the last time someone attributed words or assumed attitudes to the FM. They’re still picking bits of Carmichael’s reputation out of the gutter and off the walls.
Perhaps the ballot papers should read London Labour, London Conservatives and London Liberals, even London Greens. The truth is they take orders from their London leadership.
Sticking the “Scottish” moniker seems to confuse some people that these parties even care about Scotland.
Just caught Ken Macintosh’s car video on the Herald what a star!
‘Things can only get better’…an attempt to get younger voters to get signed up for their vote. 🙂
He’ll be looking for a job maybe… don’t know where he is on the list.
I’m sure it will be in twitter land soon and will appear eventually.
Lollysmum says:
14 April, 2016 at 5:33 pm
Heedtracker
You need to be on facebook though. Also they may have finished. I only caught a little bit as its worth seeing Scottish history happening on a tablet. To see the 20 year old that defeated former shadow UK secretary of state is always extraordinary.
@Vronsky
Tiocfaidh ár lá?
Your day may come but will it be in Dublin or Edinburgh?
Thig ar latha.
Stoker says:
“… convince others … whether it be football fans getting the message out among their own, or the man in the pub passing round the ready-rubbed, or down at the mixed doubles bowling, or the students increasing the recruiting around the Universities etc etc etc.”
Yes. However, those strike me as the groups most like to have already been converted.
What about the rugby fans, the golf club members, the southern farmers at a stock sale, those whose jobs depend on the defence industry, the crofters living a hour from a decent shop, the retired from elsewhere in the UK, the woman running a successful business from home, workers on Highland estates, financial services staff in the cities, oil workers etc etc.
By no means are they all BritNat die hearts.
These are also the ones we also need to get on board in sufficient numbers. I have faith that the SNP’s approach will succeed. I fear others make Indy sound like something many of those literally prefer to avoid.
We can’t please all of the people. We do have to appeal to enough of them with what seems, to them, to be a positive case for Indy.
K1, Janet and Thepnr say sooth.
Any reduction in SNP seats will be seen as a victory for the Unionists. Once we are independent, we can go rainbow.
Heads Cameron wins and tails Jeremy loses! If the Labour leader manages to mobilise working class support Cameron will secure the victory. The more votes that Corbyn can deliver the higher will be the plaudits for the skill and cunning of George Osborne and statesman like leadership of Cameron. It is a repeat of the role that Labour played in the Scottish referendum.
Bella article quote. I have a sore head.
Scotland remains England abstains.
The Greens based all their seat predictions last time on that predictor. Instead of the 10 they thought were in the bag they got 2. From local campaigning I don’t detect much upswing for the Greens at all. I’m not saying that there isn’t but no visual evidence so far.
@Stoker
Thanks for that, good post. Nothing should get in the way of Independence, the more diverse our support is then the more likely we will win.
Powerful foes are making great efforts to divide our unanimity, might deflect some though I’m standing firm. I know this sounds cheesy but this is the most important “cause” I have ever taken part in. It’s important because of the way things are going when Scotland is ruled by a Tory government though I very much doubt that the Red Tory would be any better for Scotland.
Time to get away from the accusations of spongers and scroungers that are written daily by you know who. I wan’t our country to take it’s own path and leave London to parade on the big stage if it feels the need to do so.
We are winning this fight over democracy, it’s places like Wings that continue to allow us to do so. We won’t lie down nor get back in the box. Just keep reminding the Yoons.
One way or another. They’re toast.
In that advert in The Extra, they say..
I’ll say, “Your vote choice to hold the SNP as government”
(a Scotsman – 14/04/16)
If Scotland is indeed on course for a 50%+ vote for the Scottish National Party, it would only seem reasonable people would want to vote to be on that winning side in the first place.
Additionally, the SE2016 could also set a new Scottish international world record for the largest number of understandable abstentions from previously inclined union party voters. To vote or not to vote.. that is their option.
Aye, there are limits of science as much as there are limits of human nature.
Times two!
A high SNP total percentage vote is essential, even if it doesn’t result in extra list seats.
Pre independence is not the right time to give any vote to any party other than the SNP.
SNP+SNP in 2016, SNP in 2017.
If votes for the Greens or RISE deny an SNP majority government, we are doomed.
“I fear others make Indy sound like something many […] prefer to avoid.”
call me dave says:
14 April, 2016 at 5:57 pm
Just caught Ken Macintosh’s car video on the Herald what a star!
suggestion ken, another one bits the dust
@NeoconNat
Still here! Yawn.
galamcennalath wrote:
“..those strike me as the groups most likely to have already been converted.”
That’s complacency! Besides, the examples i gave were just that, examples. It would be impossible for me to have listed every single example.
I was making the point that every single individual has a role to play, outwith left/right party stuff. We all have the ability to convince and convert others to our cause – the fight for Scottish Independence.
People convinced of the arguments are hardly likely to vote for Unionist parties whether they’re left, right, top, middle, bottom or left behind, are they?
For me, converting doubters to the cause is far more important than wasting time on petty party pigeon holes. I’ll convert then they can choose their own mode of transport to get them there.
I’ll always try, but not too much focus, on trying to get them to catch the big SNP bus but lets just put it this way, if there was no way on earth i was going to convert that individual because of, say, their stubborn hatred for Wee Eck OR the SNP, you better believe i’m going to urge them in the direction of another pro-indy party.
A firm belief in Scottish independence is more important than pp .
Whatever it takes!
BTW, if it’s elections we’re talking about then it’s SNP x 2.
🙂
being a non political party member this box am in is very full of INDEPENDENTISTAS , ah canny swing ah cat.
ronnie anderson
being a non political party member this box am in is very full of INDEPENDENTISTAS , ah canny swing ah cat.
oddly enough, this box is also full of INDEPENDENTISTAS and more than one cat. i would try swinging them tho’
Here’s another wee wake up call worth thinking about.
Some Celtic fans i know are as pro independence as you can get but you will NEVER get them to vote SNP. Why? Simply because they are as anti-monarchy as you’ll find and currently the SNP favour retaining those parasites.
Now, you can forget any arguments of ‘but that can be sorted after independence’ etc etc because these people have principles, standards or whatever you want to call them and they’re not for sale. That’s how they see it and that just has to be accepted and you find a way around that and you get them to vote for one of the other pro-indy parties. Job done! Converted!
Thankfully i didn’t have to try converting them as they are already that way inclined but i just wanted to show that despite our greatest hopes not everyone can be sold on the SNP but one way or another a majority can be sold on Scottish independence.
Morag: drat it, I’m in my late forties now, looks like I need those reading glasses after all.
@Stoker
Take it you persuaded the Celtic supporters to vote for the Greens LOL!
“Simply because they are as anti-monarchy as you’ll find and currently the SNP favour retaining those parasites. ”
It will never change as part of the union, but there is a chance it may with independence.
Thing is gerry with Independence literally anything is possible.
Rule nothing out, Independence first though.
Anybody know when the SNP manifesto is getting released?
HandandShrimp
Wednesday at 10 am for the official launch.
Thepnr 🙂
But that is the whole point Gerry, we need to convince all sorts to ensure that we get to independence. Some people will NEVER vote SNP, for their own individual reasons, but we need these people to get us over the line.
We need to find what drives each individual doubter and work with that if we are to achieve our goal. There’s absolutely no point in discussing what might transpire in an independent Scotland if the vehicle isn’t going to get us there.
Thanks Marcia 🙂
@ Gerry
It will never change as part of the union, but there is a chance it may with independence.
And thats what the hard of hearing need to understand, would the Scottish people in a Independant Scotland pay for the Pomp & Circumstance in London & the Hangers on, I dont think so.
Stoker,
I see your point. But if they are so anti monarchy, why vote for any unionist party. If they do that, they should be 100% sure they will never get rid of the monarchy.
So what are they voting?
@Stoker
Some Celtic fans i know are as pro independence as you can get but you will NEVER get them to vote SNP. Why? Simply because they are as anti-monarchy as you’ll find and currently the SNP favour retaining those parasites.
——
If the Royals are such a big deal for anyone, then Green is an option on the list, but you will find no mainstream party proposing to get rid of them in the constituency vote.
In that case, surely SNP is still better for independence and more chance of a future referendum on the issue. What is the alternative? A unionist party that supports the monarchy?
I think most people here would still choose to keep them. Personally, I couldn’t care less about the Royals, but accept they are good for tourism and Americans love the sheer novelty of it all. I don’t really think it is a priority for most people ?
As far as I understand it the SNP is neither pro nor anti the monarchy – such questions only arise once we are a normal country.
” But if they are so anti monarchy, why vote for any unionist party.”
Eh? They don’t, they’re leftie SSP types.
That pigeon hole on the left of the dookit.
@Onwards
I certainly wouldn’t vote to keep the monarchy. Personal choice I know and one of the issues that may divide us.
However, when we talk of welfare i.e. subsidised by the state, it seems to me that not all welfare is treated the same. Royal family welfare good, no job and skint then sanction punishment.
Keep the Royal family but why keep paying them?
They are the largest recipients of state welfare in this country with no chance of being sanctioned. Personally I’ve nothing against them let them support themselves.
William and Kate jetting all over the world in OUR name just doesn’t cut it. They are on the buroo same as our worst off, nobody wants to talk about that.
Who will sanction the Royal Family for failing to sign on in time?
@ronnie anderson
The main point is eyes on the prize Ron. 🙂
If people wan’t that second chance then they have to consider putting aside many individual policy differences. The SNP can hold that gate open for the electorate but people of all political persuasions have to walk through it willingly. They have to want someone in place willing to act on their mandate.
Building that better nation and fairer society isn’t an overnight exercise. Its going to be a long haul hard effort. There’s a lot of damage to repair both societally and economically and its going to take effort from every strata of the electorate. The rich, the poor, the public and the civic. ALL have to want it. They’re going to have to put aside differences and natural aversions. They’re going to have to set aside grudges real and imagined, because what they’re up against is so much worse.
@Macart
Don’t mean to embarrass you but never a truer word spoken.
We are all different, may have different goals and ideas in how to achieve them. If I believe though in the people that read here on Wings, we maybe are not all that much different.
Independence is our goal, left, right, black, white, rich, poor we are all supporters of Independence. Lets try not to forget that.
@Macart
Well said ! 🙂
The SNP / Alex Salmond basically said the monarchy would continue because constitutionally it would, unless decided otherwise. The (so called with deference to Robert Peffers) Union of Crowns 1603 predated the Union (or Parliaments) 1707.
So it’s a question of how much support will the SSP/Left get at Holyrood while part of the union, versus how much support would SSP/Left get in an independent Scotland.
They can think that through surely.
@Macart
In a nutshell 🙂
I believe strongly and uncompromisingly in democracy and equality, so, of course, I support the policy of retaining the Queen as head of state.
Anyone who thinks there’s a contradiction there needs to wise up.
Anyway, I did proportional spreadsheets for all seats and all regions, so that SNP 45.4% in 2011 compared to 52% in a poll, I multiplied the percentage in each constituency by 52 and divided by 45.4, same for the other parties. I didn’t bother readjusting to 100% total.
But on that basis I found discrepancies with Shandwick, so it has its own algorithms to allow for – something. Maybe a loyalty factor, no idea.
The word for this is “gaming”, even with actual opinion polls, and the word gaming is appropriate, it’s not real life. On top of everything else local factors can reverse a poll prediction.
@ PR – Sorry sweetie, you’re wrong!
@ Onwards – For your benefit i will say this one last time. I’ve made the point as clear as it can be made, go back and read what the messages within my posts are all about.
I couldn’t care less what Tom, Dick or Harry think about the finer points to certain issues. There are a lot of deluded folk thinking that the SNP is the only way.
These people need to realise that there are thousands of folk out there who love the idea of Scottish independence but they would NEVER vote for the SNP, EVER!!
We need to convince and convert as many folk to the merits of independence first and foremost and if that means pointing them in the direction of another pro-indy party then that’s exactly what we must do.
If we can also persuade them to vote SNP, as well as convert them, then so much the better but facts are facts and we need to realise that not every independence supporter can be sold on our party of choice.
We’re not talking about the monarchy not being a priority for most people. We’re talking about the various reasons why people may not vote for the SNP, that point was clearly made and that example i gave was only one example.
There are as many reasons for not voting SNP as there are people who will not vote SNP. I can’t speak for all those people, you’ll have to ask them yourself.
We are talking about the importance of Scottish independence and how it’s more important to focus on converting doubters than party promos.
As for your claim on the monarchy being good for tourism…well…that’s a different debate for another day but i’d briefly say….cobblers!!
🙂
Any pre electoral pact by the SNP to not stand in the list in order to allow another party a free run would almost certainly result in a protest after the ballot to have them treated as a single party attempting to play the system. The protest wouldn’t be before because that’d tip their hand. That said you might regard the SNP putting all their constituency candidates on their list as limiting their chances in any region to only 12 seats.
On the other hand given Labour are leaving it to the last minute to produce their manifesto means there’s precious little time for postal voters to make an informed decision. You’d almost be forgiven for thinking they were deliberately throwing this election.
@NeoconNat
…what a shame! I had hoped for better. You cannot believe in equality and support monarchy, the HofL or any other relic of an Imperial past.
A strange mix to have democracy and monarchy under the same roof.
Anyone who thinks there’s a contradiction there needs to wise up.
Janet Weiss?
Stoker, you little ripper. I knew there’d be someone with a skull in here somewhere.
It’s not about politics, it’s about getting the boot off our throat. I look forward to the politics later and, based on what I’ve seen, I expect that to be a walk in the park.
Clootie: “You cannot believe in equality and support monarchy”
And I don’t. I said I support the policy of retaining the monarchy. The policy itself is sound. The idea and reality of monarchy is a preposterous insult that no sane person could take seriously.
You need to remember that morons and retards have votes.
@NeoconNat
You still here? Bore..
Gerry
I don’t waste my time trying to persuade doubters to vote for the SNP. I find out what drives them and i work with that. Getting them to believe in the arguments for Scottish independence is more important than being a recruiting sergeant for the SNP.
And while we’re on the subject, i think a few folk need to focus on those within their own SNP party who apparently voted ‘No’ at the ref instead of chastising those who choose not to vote SNP.
Anyway, folks, getting the numbers on side will always be the priority that will see us get over the line. Thinking we can entice everyone over to the SNP is sadly a grand delusion that will get us nowhere. Would be nice if we could but we need to realise and accept that as being unrealistic.
I don’t like it either that some smaller groups are attempting to break the SNP numbers but that’s up to the SNP to use their vast resources in an attempt to counter those challenges.
Meanwhile, they can have my 2 votes as per usual while i continue to look for possible converts to the cause for Scottish independence by hook or by crook.
Toodle-pip troops!
🙂
O/T
Angus Robertson on BBC Question Time soon and hope he sets the record straight about Labour’s PFI scandal.
Oh here, I realised a quite major thing the SNP did that nobody else did, and haven’t seen it pushed at all.
The SNP brought in RET on a gradual careful basis as the budgets allowed, and it’s now on all Calmac routes, and what a difference. Even compared to the usual book of six, it’s cheaper on at least the one I used today (using my last book of six ticket), car and me, Lochaline – Fishnish.
Not sure if it’s on all routes yet.
http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-next-10-countries-the-world-s-most-likely-new-nations.html
O/T
Has anybody watched this? I watched at a meeting in Dunoon tonight. Pretty compelling viewing It’s and hour and a half.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQLfkhwkEbo
O/T Spotted this on football forum
Scottish League clubs ready to pull the plug on Sportscene.
Well done to Brian Topping for standing up for Scotland.
The present deal is worth £1.4 million per year but Topping said the BBC would have to offer between £3 million and £4 million before the 42 clubs would agree to continue.
O/T It emerged this week that the broadcaster had extended its rights to cover the FA Cup, having signed a deal worth a reported £100 million in 2013 at over £1 million a game. The BBC also pays £68 million per year for Match of the Day highlights.
And
Angus B MacNeil MP ?@AngusMacNeilSNP 34m34 minutes ago
I also told #Commons on debate on BBC that beeb should also make up difference of years of years of short changing Scottish Football.
@ Macart My eyes are never of the prize I just cant get my head round some peoples stupidity (compairing Staples & Paperclips)& whitch one holds the best,before the paperwork is done.
Ah wee deviation from Apples n Oranges lol.
Part of a letter I sent out to the press today
“I took the trouble to total the FPTP votes in all the seats in Scottish Parliament Highland Region and compared it with the total list votes on the Highland list. Bar a very few votes for minor parties on the list these totals were almost the same and a perfectly acceptable proportional result would have been achieved by basing it on the FPTP totals.
Only one vote, the FPTP one, would I believe have been very beneficial to the minor parties like the Greens and RISE as it would have forced them to put up candidates in each seat and do the work of going round canvassing for support for them which is the only way for them to significantly increase their support”
Thing that winds me up to feck with the SNP is near election time it vote SNP x2, it’s the only ticket to Independence…, blah, blah….
If they really wanted my vote, certain ministers should have got off their respective arses and addressed my grievance with a modicum of professionalism or even simple courtesy. It really wasn’t very complicated. Sadly they didn’t give a flying fk then or anytime since, but all of a sudden they want my vote.
They’ll probably get it, unless I abstain, but only because I want Independence and sadly nobody else can deliver it, but the SNP will play on that meal ticket once too often. I don’t like to be taken for granted and/or treated like dirt, least of all by some smarmy politician whether they are SNP or otherwise.
WOW! ITV News at 10 just came clean on the NHS Performance
figures across the UK.
The 4 Hour A & E target in England is falling and now sits well below their target at Only 87.8%.
These are the worst NHS England Figures since records began
English NHS Junior Doctors Hunt the *unt Hunt.
They should have a look in the Gynaecology Dept, IMO. lol
Unbelievably, they went on to mention that Scotland’s
NHS is hitting 93%!!!!!
Labour’s Welsh NHS is only at 77% and N. Ireland I believe
sits at the bottom at circa 73%.
Can we get this on Bill Boards Across the land and ask Labour’s Dipity Dug and Jaba the Baily how they compare their English Master’s NHS performance against the Scottish NHS, which they say is in crisis.
The EBC just revealed a 3rd tier story to say the NHS England figures were bad at 87.8% and that Scotland had done better, but refused to reveal just how far better Scotland had done.
I only watched the EBC news to confirm my thoughts that they would not lead with a Major story like this, and that they would never show Scotland’s successful A & E figures, in comparison.
The good old propaganda channel never let’s me down.
You can rely on the EBC to be unreliable in giving you the full story!
Thepnr, I’m not boring, don’t be mean.
You aren’t either. You’re a special, caring, unique, conscientious, and beautiful person. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
No strings attached.
OT – RET (Road Equivalednt Tarrif)
Yes, it’s the remainder of the Western Isles (Hebrides and Clyde) routes that have recently been brought in.
Anyone interested it’s here:
http://www.transport.gov.scot/system/files/uploaded_content/documents/tsc_basic_pages/Water/Scottish%20Ferries%20Plan%202013-2022.pdf
I was wondering about the Northern Isles – the LibDems have complained saying it’s political – lying as always sadly – and the answer is this:
“… for the Northern Isles, implementing RET now or in the next few years, would mean an increase on a range of fares currently available. We explained that our intention is to phase in the introduction of RET fares over a much longer time-frame so that no one will pay more for a RET fare that their current standard single fare.”
I vaguely remember RET being something like £5 for the car, and say 0.80p per nautical mile, similar structure for passengers). I guess the Northern Isles already work out cheaper than this.
Follow up to my earlier NHS England disastrous A & E stats.
The Worst since records began.
Sky News, or the Murdoch Manipulation Channel, doesn’t touch the NHS Scandal what so ever!
They went on to show you the Front Page Stories on
the leading English Propaganda papers, where you guessed it,Not one of them cover this Major life threatening story?
I did think for a moment that the Daily Star was going that way with the Headline of “Giant Rats”, but no they didn’t refer to the Westminster Politicians driving their NHS into the ground and on into private hands
@Sinky
Angus Robertson might well get grief about his question in WM yesterday. On Daily Politics today they ran an item checking his numbers quoted for HMRC staff chasing tax avoiders and DWP staff hounding Welfare Claimants. They got on some ‘fact checker’ who said his numbers were out of date for HMRC and didn’t include some of the staff. To be fair he was being largely supportive of Robertson but Jo Coburn couldn’t conceal her glee as she announced to the world that he should really get his facts right.
Anybody no uasin there Tightrope fur ah wee while gie,s ah shout ah hiv Ejit ah would like tae string up.
@Stoker
Points worth pondering for sure.
Let’s save any wrath we have though for those who associate themselves with Unionism, plenty to choose from. I’m talking of McTernan, McDougal, Murphy(haha), Rennie, Davidson need I go on?
All of the above are a waste of space but the ones I really hate are not politicians, oh no.
It’s the propagandists from he BBC.
Louise White, Glenn Campbell (why two nn’s?), Gary Robertson, Hayley Millar, Kay with an e and everyone else associated with the “Good Morning Scotland” or Kaye Adams when she can be bothered to appear program.
I really hate the Unionist parties and supporters that lie and obfuscate in order to hide the truth. Most of all though I hate the lying BUM that does their job for them.
@Neoconnat
50%.
I’d say your postings are 50% interesting provocative viewpoints and 50% outright trolls.
Not bad.
How can your Scotland begin to flourish whilst overshadowed by someone else’s government?
Here in beautiful Glasgow, we said yes to Scotland becoming an independent country. Factoid 🙂
We have the power of the pen, vote wisely and Let Glasgow and the land of Scotland Flourish once again. You know you want to.
Purple and peach XX
@Thepnr
Agree. The jobsworths who broadcast the Unionist memes without thinking are beyond saving. They’re for sale to the highest bidder.
Let us pass them by on our way to a better future.
Indy, I should probably be satisfied with that. Thanks. I bet the 50% you think are trolly are the ones I meant sincerely though.
Anyway.
SNP x 2
O/T Made the mistake of watching Scotland 2016 tonight (the first time in ages), and there was Anna Burnside of the Daily Record triangulating like fury over the Edinburgh PFI debacle, “It’s everyone pointing the finger, saying ‘It wisnae me'”, and even cynically rehearsing the Tory line about the SNP government being at fault for not doing building inspections. Blood pressure soaring again. Jeez, how low can that programme go…?
One of the main things I did during the Ref and after for the GE was push the idea that people should think about whether the BBC was biased. I’d found that while most people didn’t trust newspapers, they did trust the BBC and were surprised when I said it was biased. I just said to watch how it reported anything they actually knew something about, or do a bit of online research.
I know people who’ve said they’ve recently changed from trusting the BBC to realising it really is very biased in the way it reports.
Give it time and the BBC will be dead, as far as its ability to indoctrinate is concerned.
@NeoconNat
Ah, mind-reading. Perhaps I’m bluffing …
NHS Scotland got a mention on the BBC…just. “England’s A&E report their worst ever figures they are still better than Wales but not as good as Scotland.” And their endeth the detail.
Well well. Sorry OT.
QT in Doncaster goes code red, audience giving TOries a hard time, DD losing control.
Angus Robertson and lady in audience go in for the kill.
Whoops!
Oh. LIVERPOOL FC. What a game!
Angus Robertson absolutely nailing QT tonight.
Rapturous applause every time he makes a contribution. (Bar one cry of ‘rubbish’ from a guy who turned out a bit of a zoomer).
Reckon the SNP could win Doncaster….lol
@ Effijy 5 news lead with NHS England & different Boards that are in trouble Eleanor Bradford wasent available for comment
yesindyref2said:
Yes. It may take some time, but yes. What puzzles me mightily though is that everyone in BBC Scotland seems totally blind to the likely eventual destruction of their precious brand. Either it’s outright hubris, or they are in total denial to what’s going on (plausible, since BBC Scotland seems to be heavily populated by dedicated Labourites) or it’s a deliberate diehard strategy of “Union or bust”.
I can’t help but wonder if there is anyone in there savvy enough to realise that there’s a significant problem that needs addressing before it’s too late. Oh to be a fly on the wall at times in PQ!
This post is about off-topic
Here’s a couple of videos I thought I’d share with y’all from off-topic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhUk5zd3PXc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRgokSbo7c8
Just like the science of polling and predictions, it’s a race to the finish.. cheers tya BDTT 🙂
Thepnr wrote:
“It’s the propagandists from the BBC.”
Without a doubt, public enemy No1.
Time for me to throw another log on the fire and hit the sac.
Ciao for now folks!
A visual feast of charts , expertly executed, and a searing indictment of the total utter mince of predictor seats.
The corporate media will never provide us with a legitimate platform for free and fair debate.The Tories continue to gorge themselves on our land and its people with their malicious and vindictive scorched earth policy.Meanwhile, the Unionist Parties in Scotland blow hot air oot their mooths.They make you laugh, greet and boak all at the same time.
The defining value of journalism is honesty and that’s why this site is where our voice gets louder.All of us need to be active citizens as we bide our time on our journey to independence.We are on our way.
SNP X 2
Angus Robertson is such a star as well as many of our SNP MPs. We are so lucky we voted them in.
SNP x 2 and EU in.
Stoker at 9.58
Whit? I have met no SNP member who voted No at the referendum and believe me I meet a hell of a lot of them
@ geeo He certainly was ah yooner, the gay in the red jersay got to answer him back ( there would be no need for austerity if the Taxes were payed.
@Lanarkist
QT in Doncaster? But … Doncaster is till in Scotland! Just google “doncaster part of scotland”
@Robert J. Sutherland
It;s getting there. It needs sites like Wings to have the occasional go at it, Newsnet / Bateman / Robertson, and all of us as well.
Get rid of that media bias and Scotland is Independent.
On that kind of thing just had a look at the Herald, and an article there about Davidson which is trying to say SNP like the Conservatives – both Tories. Ah, well, their circulation is plummeting which is a shame for the good business section but no loss for the anti-SNP / anti-Indy “news” / politics section.
For anyone who’s missed QT which I think is till on, ye can go ontae iplayer live and restart the programme, saves waiting for it to upload onto iplayer later:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcone?area=northern_ireland
Angus was awesome.
BTW, afore a go:
“No strings attached.” ?
” ah hiv Ejit ah would like tae string up.” ?
Would they be hairy strings by oany chance?
🙂
_________________________
@ Dave McEwan Hill
Couldn’t possibly tell you Dave but that’s been mentioned several times from various sources since our referendum, including in the comments here on WOS. Could never understand it myself but surely you must have heard or read about it?
Sleep well Wingers!
Simply SNP X 2 at Holyrood upcoming to cut through the shit and begin the Union Treaty abrogation process.
All else is fan dancing whilst pissing in ones underpants.
New conservative troll
Son your making an arse of yoursel!
If it’s humour, it’s not funny
If its political it has no foundation
If it’s just friends your looking for, you’re going about it the wrong we
If it’s a realise from what ever is upset you, go sort the problem at source
Your playing a kazo at a classic recital!
Apologies for being O/T … tangentially at least. 😉
I saw this on Facebook earlier tonight. I don’t want to say I can’t really believe this is happening but there again … I can’t believe this is happening.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1677818145818060&set=gm.1718773898379812&type=3&theater
So far this appears to be the only location I have seen or heard about instances of people being told that voting SNP twice is illegal. However, as my old Granny used to say … there is no smoke without fire!
The SNP doesn’t have a policy of retaining the monarchy in Scotland
What was put forward was that post referendum Scotland would respect the position of the current monarch and she would still remain Queen
Nobody suggested that would be adopted as a policy ongoing with her majesty’s issue and nor could they because that would be a matter for the SNP members to decide for their own party, other political parties would have their own ideas as to their own positions
Retention of the monarchy by Scotland might be good, or it might not but one thing I know that would be pretty certain if retention were to be accepted they would be treated in an Independent Scotland as any other wealthy land owners, it would cost them money and they’d be losing quite a bit of their garden if the SNP are the the Government
Question Time
Angus Robertson’s a lovely bloke but he forgets where he is at times, it’s not subtitles those audiences need it’s dictionaries, or, well they could start with brain cells
My lovely relatives in Wolverhampton are exactly the same
They’re my family and everything but quite frankly they’re brain dead, it’s OK I tell them that regularly and they tell me I’m a brainwashed cult follower under that evil witch Sturgeon who’s got me in her spell
No argument or reason prevails because they’ve read it in the newspaper and seen it on the news so any amount of protestations by me are totally useless, as far as they are concerned Scotland is subsidised by England because we have nothing and let that be an end to it and it’s all dangerous talk and disrespectful to England who keeps us, so stop it at once
I even gave them a wee blue book, they took one look saw the wings and it was immediately decried as Nazi sedition and how can I stay in such a country and when it all goes wrong they’ll take me in even though I was born and bred here by my Edinburgh Daddy
There you have it, and insight into my English Rellies and if a large meteor were to strike and wipe half of them out they’d not only barely notice as long as it didn’t hit their street they’d show more concern if the local bowling club had to be closed for repairs
There are some things more important than politics
Angus Robertson awesome.
Charts on seat distribution brilliant particularly
the one where SNP get 100% of the vote. How no?
SNPx2
@Dr Jim
I’ve got rellies like that,much closer to home. My mother now talks behind my back about Sturgeon, I’ve found out. That will be in retaliation for telling her that the only thing truthful in the Rancid, was the date.
I thought Angus was great fun, an absolute masterclass in reading the room, encouraging it, and turning it on that posh Tory.
Ol Dumblebum was losing his grip/temper at points.
I don’t know how anybody can predict anything with circa 700,000 postal vote applications.
Going back to the GE The Postal Vote numbers for Moray jumped by c6,000 I believe. The Tory vote increased almost by 5000 on the previous GE.
There is no excuse in a country the size of Scotland in electorate terms for that many postal votes. If Robert Mugabe pulled that postal vote stunt then the Brit Nat Press and Media would be screaming foul, well at least until some Anglo Brit Mining etc Company had got the deal it wanted.
I note the O2 and 3 merger is being scrutinised. I wonder if their respective support for a Naw vote will see such a merger being waved through by the Brit Monopoly Commission? Will the EU look the other way as well since we had no friends there during the Referendum?
The corrupt Banana Monarchy is alive and well and it isn’t shooting arrows in Bhutan!
Andrew, pick on someone “you’re” own size.
Am I the only one thinking that labour leaving their election vows (manifesto) to the final week of the election period could be them trying to repeat better togethers late swing on the vote by gaining more media coverage leading right up to the vote?
They will promise the earth no doubt, here’s hoping we have learned what they are really about.
I haven’t read all the comments, and I’m sure this has been said before, but I’m going to say it anyway: you’re wrong to suggest that a 50/50 split in the list vote should return a 50/50 split in the number of MSPs elected from the lists. Even in a scenario where one party takes all of the constituency seats, this isn’t a guaranteed – nor even an expected – outcome. The maximum variation on a 50/50 split is 6 seats (ie. 31:25). None of your results exceed this margin.
Seats calculators work by feeding in historical data and opinion polling on top of whatever arbitrary numbers you give it. So you would expect there to be some difference in what is achieved by each party on a similar vote share. This is particularly true for the constituency vote where with a margin of less than 0.1%, a party could win all but one seat. In addition, all of the results are possible depending on where each party wins seats.
@Valerie
I asked my rellies if they’d ever met David Cameron or Miliband or any of those folk and of course they hadn’t
When I told them I’d met Nicola Sturgeon on a few occasions and half the Scottish government as have loads of folk in Scotland and that I’m sent regular emails and videos and that we call our politicians by their first names they couldn’t believe it
And you’d think that would be it you’re in, but no, they’re not real politicians if you can just talk to them and they’re not surrounded by the secret goon squad like the big important ones in that London that wouldn’t give you the time of day unless they were cornered
I just wish we had politicians you’re not allowed to talk to, bet we’d feel important then eh
I know one thing that’s definitely going to be in Kezias manifesto, Scottish Labour he he he are making a pensioner top up offer even though pensions are reserved she’s going to offer Scottish pensioners more money
Now that’s what you call despicable politics in the hope of saving your Arse by making a promise that’s completely impossible and that’s why they’re holding it back, it’s what my Faither used to call just in time to be too late (to scrutinise and for her to be made an Arse of)
Kezia’s going to do “A Murphy”
I haven’t read all the comments, and I’m sure this has been said before, but I’m going to say it anyway: you’re wrong to suggest that a 50/50 split in the list vote should return a 50/50 split in the number of MSPs elected from the lists. Even in a scenario where one party takes all of the constituency seats, this isn’t a guaranteed – nor even an expected – outcome. The maximum variation on a 50/50 split is 6 seats (ie. 31:25). None of your results exceed this margin.
Seats calculators work by feeding in historical data and opinion polling on top of whatever arbitrary numbers you give it. So you would expect there to be some difference in what is achieved by each party on a similar vote share. This is particularly true for the constituency vote where with a margin of less than 0.1%, a party could win all but one seat. In addition, most of the results are possible depending on where each party wins seats and how much support there is in any given region. Only the ones where parties win seats without having any votes are impossible and even they’re only wrong because of the margin for error that is used to round out the results a little better.
Let’s be honest, seat calculators aren’t accurate. However, the more realistic the data you put in, the more realistic the results you get it (and vice versa).
If the SNP get back in at Holyrood with a majority they should immediately change the voting system to first past the post!!!!
Instant end to all this unionist waffle. Surely if its democratic enough for Westminster, its democratic enough for Holyrood too???
Pro-independence mega majority for the foreseeable.
With 95% ignored down there and 100% in charge up here, has the word ‘inevitable’ ever been more apt?
Trebles all round.
Sorry, just back from Islay and may have been drinking too much.
@galamcennalath
My first reaction has to be, if they are serious, why aren’t they contesting all seats?
Because not every party can afford dozens and dozens of lost deposits?
Well, I think this is far enough down the page to go O/T…
Just picked this up, while having my dip into tomorrow’s papers before turning in.
RE: SNP MP Kirsty Blackman. Here’s a quote from The National…
“Asked if she thought Commons officials should get a better handle on Scottish slang to head off future misunderstandings, Blackman admitted SNP MPs probably weren’t using Scots words enough to justify it.”
The subject was the word “MINCE”. Since when was “MINCE” “Scottish slang”??? Hansard has to get its head around the fact that Scots is a UK language and “mince” is not a purely Scots word.
This is from “Oxford Dictionaries”…
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/mince
“mince
Pronunciation: /m?ns/
verb
1 [with object] (often as adjective minced) Cut up (food, especially meat) into very small pieces, typically in a machine: minced beef
More example sentences Synonyms
2 [no object] Walk with short quick steps in an affectedly dainty manner: there were plenty of secretaries mincing about.”
Maybe they didn’t understand the use of “mince” as meaning “rubbish” but, really, they need educated. Here’s The National archived link:-
http://archive.is/bTSSY
Well, I think this is far enough down the page to go O/T…
Just picked this up, while having my dip into tomorrow’s papers before turning in.
RE: SNP MP Kirsty Blackman. Here’s a quote from The National…
“Asked if she thought Commons officials should get a better handle on Scottish slang to head off future misunderstandings, Blackman admitted SNP MPs probably weren’t using Scots words enough to justify it.”
The subject was the word “MINCE”. Since when was “MINCE” “Scottish slang”??? Hansard has to get its head around the fact that Scots is a UK language and “mince” is not a purely Scots word.
This is from “Oxford Dictionaries”…
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/mince
“mince
Pronunciation: /m?ns/
verb
1 [with object] (often as adjective minced) Cut up (food, especially meat) into very small pieces, typically in a machine: minced beef
More example sentences Synonyms
2 [no object] Walk with short quick steps in an affectedly dainty manner: there were plenty of secretaries mincing about.”
Maybe they didn’t understand the use of “mince” as meaning “rubbish” but, really, they need educated. Here’s The National archived link:-
http://archive.is/bTSSY
Posted twice?
I apologise. The software on Wings usually susses that out and doesn’t let you. So I blame the software!
8=)
@Stoker, point is the SNP is the ONLY choice in the constituency vote for those who may support independence.
Sure, there will be those who don’t want to vote SNP for all sorts of reasons, valid or not. And it may then make sense to urge a Green vote or whatever on the list.
But it is still worthwhile pointing out the alternative if they don’t hold their nose and vote SNP on the constituency whilst looking at the bigger picture.
It’s like that idiot Loki the rapper on the STV page recently, saying he is going to abstain because the SNP aren’t socialist enough right now.
Look at the alternative! – It’s accepting the status quo and Tory governments we don’t vote for. The logical position for all indy supporters is to still vote SNP on the constituency as a practical means to an end – even if you don’t agree with specific policies or people in the meantime.
Reference the “monarchy”.
Let’s be fair. The woman has been around a long time & one cannot deny she has experience. To me, she comes over as a quite intelligent person but having never met the her, her never having been introduced to me, my opinion is somewhat shadowed.
However, on her demise, what are the options. Having never met her son, again his never having been introduced to me, he comes over via the media as an oddball with Nicholas Witchell as a pet instead of his mother’s corgies. Does Angleland know what it might be letting itself in for? Remember that in Scotland we can get rid of him at the drop of a hat. The Sovereign of Scotland are its people & can dethrone the monarch at any time as “not fit for purpose”.
What then. They by-pass his sister & his son takes charge. What has he done apart from travel around the world accompanied by a corps on Nepalese or whatever bodyguards or played around on helicopters for mainly photoshoots. His stepbrother (purportedly) seems a much quieter person, not too many sycophants or photographers around him except when attempting to sow his oats. Poor bugger, he must have a complex, one way or the other.
Decisions, decisions. Suppose we’ll have to leave it until after independence.
There again, Proud Republic of Scotland has a nice strong ring to it.
Alexander bus builders, Falkirk, have made a £2Billion deal with China for electrified buses.
The Royals are supposed to be impartial. An impartial head of State can be an advantage. Obama was a lame duck President for six years. It was difficult to legislation through a Republican Congress. The Royals should slim down, be quiet or bow out. The Royals are Tories. Boris Johnson is a total hypocrite. The EU paid for his privileged upbringing. His father was an EU diplomat. Now he wants out.
Anyone who believes in FFA, Home Rule, Federalism, Independence should vote SNP. It will also prevent £13Billion being lost to Scotland which could be better spent.
Westminster is spending £95Billion+ on Hinkley Point (a disaster waiting to happen) and HS2 which will make journeys throughout Britain take longer. A total waste of money. The deficit. The Tories are sanctioning and starving the vulnerable.
Scotland NHS is the best in the UK. Official figures.
Aye, Ken 500.
NHS in Angleland, according to Anglish news last night, is up the proverbial creek.
Morning, Onwards, you wrote:
“But it is still worthwhile pointing out the alternative if they don’t hold their nose and vote SNP on the constituency whilst looking at the bigger picture.”
And that’s exactly what i do but as i tried to explain to Gerry i don’t force the issue when i’m trying to convert independence doubters and i get any hint of them being anti SNP. Others can feel free to operate in that manner but it’s not how i work.
However, if i’m in ELECTION mode i persist a bit more but trying to guarantee an independence convert is more important than trying to gain support for any single party and needs to be handled differently.
Don’t get me wrong, i’d love every single voter to support the SNP, at least until we gain our independence, but we have to be realistic and realise that not every conversion to our cause is going to want to support the SNP, no matter how hard we try.
It has been said many times before, we in the independence movement are a broad church and we all came together under the Hope Over Fear banner. I wouldn’t want it any other way.
As a final wee thought on this matter, just think of a scenario, i’ve almost got a convert but he’s wavering on turning because he’s been steeped in certain ‘SNP BAD’ hatred. So i finally seal the deal by getting him to vote for the SSP or whatever.
It would then be down to the likes of people like our own IanB who, as far as i know, has similar political beliefs to try and encourage him to lend his votes to the SNP, for the greater good, just as Ian is doing himself. At least i think he is, last i read on that matter in one of Ian’s posts.
Job done and a new recruit for the Yes movement.
Tommy Sheridan unfortunately, is anti EU and supports marijuana.
O/T links
http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/red-meat-from-ruth-davidson-but-wheres.html?spref=tw
http://www.scotlandineurope.eu/wee_bleu_book
https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/3843/profiteering-is-killing-britain-and-will-kill-scotland-if-we-don-t-stop-it
Oil is such a burden don’t you know
http://archive.is/T8pIW
Lord Flipper Darling Project Fearing like its 2014 on BBC tv breakfast right the now. Flipper kicks off putting boot hard in to Scotland, he has sympathy for those sick of EU campaign but its only 10 weeks, the Scottish one was 3 years. Flipper is a tory though so fair dues. Has a BBC ligger asked him about PFI Edinburgh yet?
O/T links
Scotland will continue to be a psephologist’s delight for the foreseeable future
http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=21061
https://www.ted.com/talks/yanis_varoufakis_capitalism_will_eat_democracy_unless_we_speak_up
http://www.thecanary.co/2016/04/14/latest-scandal-final-nail-coffin-sun/
Bloody hell taxpayers money flows into criminals pockets
Iain-duncan-smith- in line for £15,000 just for quitting
http://archive.is/gY1WQ
@Stocker The Hairy String wont be soiled by that Twats neck,any auld rope wid dey,an if theres anybody getting rid of there piano ah could find ah use fur the the wire (preferibly rusty)Hawmaws , noo theres ahither word fur Ms Blackman tae confuddle hansard wie.
@Orri
You could be right in thinking that the Blairites in SLab (or BLiS as I now call them) are deliberately throwing the election. Could it be that they may think that a drubbing at HR will provide them with a weapon against Corbyn in WM?
It can only be… Both Votes SNP… for me. Hehe 🙂
O/T links
https://johnnyvoid.wordpress.com/2016/04/12/meet-stephen-crabb-like-iain-duncan-smith-only-shitter/
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uk-breaking-international-law-selling-arms-saudi-arabia-expert-66230111
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/04/goldman-wells-fargo-finally-admit-committed-fraud.html
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20160412/07310334162/shoe-company-new-balance-says-us-govt-basically-offered-it-bribe-to-support-tpp.shtml
Surely it should be law that all manifestos be declared say, 4 weeks prior to any election.
Even after hearing on the news that Scotland NHS is streets better than everywhere else in the news, what pops through my letterbox? An election broadsheet from Labour telling me how the SNP is cutting services.
This is why they are so unelectable. All they are capable of is casting aspersions on the most trusted government in the world. Absolute plonkers
Is it not time some SNP politician told the apologists for Labour’s Edinburgh schools PFI fiasco that when these contracts were being put out to tender the Labour Scottish Executive was sending hundreds of millions a year back to the London Treasury so PFI was not the only game in town.
This post is about PFI
https://archive.is/3WD0T
https://archive.is/hehyE
What I find strange about this PFI situation is that it is the PPP contractors who are doing the inspections.
‘A Glasgow City Council spokeswoman said: “We have received a reassuring verbal report from our PPP contractor’s structural engineer that confirms there is no structural defect or health and safety issue regarding the results of the surveys in the three schools built by Miller Construction.’
‘Mr Burns said that the council received early indications that suggest evidence of faults across all 17 affected schools to a varying extent”.
“At the moment it is too early to say what the impact will be as full survey results from Edinburgh Schools Partnership have not been yet been received.’
It looks like the most sincere socialist contingent has failed us today and are distracted by something more important. Allow me.
http://www.thenational.scot/news/food-bank-scotland-more-scots-reliant-than-ever-before-and-disproportionately-higher-than-rest-of-the-uk.16387
Foodbank dependency in Scotland is up 13.6% in Scotland in the last year. Scotland more than any other country in the UK depends on food banks. That’s children too, remember.
You were saying?
https://caltonjock.com/2016/04/15/systematic-implantation-of-britishness-in-the-minds-of-scots-this-is-how-they-did-it-in-the-1940s/
Dunks says:
15 April, 2016 at 8:33 am
Even after hearing on the news that Scotland NHS is streets better than everywhere else in the news, what pops through my letterbox? An election broadsheet from Labour telling me how the SNP is cutting services.
Ruby replies
Just think how much better the Scottish NHS would be without the burden of Labour’s PFI!
Last election I gave both my votes to the SNP and got a Pro indy government. Why would I change or risk this to benefit other parties that are currently pro indy however it isn’t a priority. How many of the candidates standing for Greens campaigned as part of Better Together and are now asking to be elected as part of a pro indy block?
Every time I see that fool from UKIP I remember how the Greens played the electorate by stating how they were the only ones that could prevent it. In the end it was the SNP that were the only serious threat and how the Better Together parties cheered the result.
So I’ll be voting for the SNP on both to ensure I get a government that will work towards indy, if they get a few more seats then fine. Less, even if it goes to former members of the Yes campaign would be seen as a lack of confidence in the SNP and their commitment to independence.
I wonder who is going to be caught by the ‘flamebaiter’?
I wonder who is going to be caught by the ‘flamebaiter’?
Which ones?! I just watched a BBC ligger on the beach at Portabello kick off his Scottish election interview with candidates and it’s all about the independence referendum and what a “toxic” thing it all is. And it ended with a LibDem dude and his “you said it was once in a lifetime and 1 in 4 people no longer like each other because of it.”
Typical BBC gits input to fledgling Scottish democracy but the only reason they’re on the beach in Edinburgh is because there is no BBC studio in Scotland’s capital, its all in Glasgow, a 4 hundred million plus box of BBC vote NO Scotland, shite.
Calling all BBC gimps, you won, get over it.
Hot of the red sofa at Edinburgh,s riviera from the Libdumb (Coleman)Families fawed oot over the Referendem,ah wunner if they,ll aw faw in wie the EU referendem.
There,ll be hordes n hordes of Englanders coming er the border, Ice Cream fur breakfast 8.15am on Portabella beach,Bbc must be footing the bill.
Wee will meet them on the beaches,watch oot people it might be Brought Ferry tommorrow ! ah Visoccis. ah,ll hiv ah Double Nuogat.
Labour’s last minute manifesto will be announced on the front page of the Daily Wecord a week before the election. Marble is expensive so it will be written on faux parchment. It’ll fo something like this and a 1 2 3:
I Kezia Dugdale do vow that the SNP is bad and the Sturgeon is worser.
I believe in equality for all so today announce that every community in Scotland will be able to charge APD. Why should it be only those privileged cities that have airports? This will raise untold amounts of money to run North Britain.
I vow that whatever the SNP offer we will offer twice as much for half the price.
Vote North British Labour, vote Kez…cos.
SNP x 4 (from this hoose)
Foodbanks are a result of Westminster Tory policy. Sanctioning and starving the vulnerable. Spending £95Billion on Hinkley Point and HS2. The Tory slush fund. Spendng £170Billion on Trident. Osbourne as just spent another £1/2Billion of Scottish taxpayers money on Trident, against the majority wishes and the public Internet.
Christine LeGarde pays no tax and is bring sued by the French Gov for misappropriating £400Million in payments to bankers.
Westminster could close all British tax havens set up by Thatcher.
Another Union Dividend says:
15 April, 2016 at 8:43 am
Is it not time some SNP politician told the apologists for Labour’s Edinburgh schools PFI fiasco that when these contracts were being put out to tender the Labour Scottish Executive was sending hundreds of millions a year back to the London Treasury so PFI was not the only game in town.
Ruby replies
The exact sum is £1.5bn.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/probably-a-robbery/
Perhaps the SNP have already pointed this out but it is not something the media want to report.
@ Another Union Dividend says:
15 April, 2016 at 8:43 am
“Is it not time some SNP politician told the apologists for Labour’s Edinburgh schools PFI fiasco that when these contracts were being put out to tender the Labour Scottish Executive was sending hundreds of millions a year back to the London Treasury so PFI was not the only game in town.”
They might also add in last term of office Labour / Lib Dems only built 200 schools whereas the SNP built over 300 in their first term of office.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-something-for-nothing-country/
Another good article about PFI entitled
‘The something for nothing country’
The time is right for a ‘Wee PFI Book’
School closures have waken people up to the ‘PFI Rip-off’ and they need more info.
I don’t know how people think the MSM are going to report stories about Labour sending back £1.5 billion to Westminster and Labour building only 200 schools or anything else about Labour’s PFI when the media are not prepared to mention the word Labour.
heedtracker says:
15 April, 2016 at 9:14 am
I wonder who is going to be caught by the ‘flamebaiter’?
Which ones?!
Ruby replies
I was referring to the New Flamebaiter!
“Food bank usage at record high – and the true scale of hunger could be far greater” http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/food-bank-usage-at-record-high-reveals-trussell-trust-a6984921.html
“Trussell Trust: Welsh food bank use ‘remains at record levels'” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-36045918
For all of you who are bad with punctuation, please don’t assume the above suggests poor Welsh people are being forced to eat “remains”.
“Record number of Scots referred to food banks, says charity”
“This figure included 43,962 packages for children, the charity said.” http://stv.tv/news/scotland/1350601-record-number-of-scots-referred-to-food-banks-says-charity/
And so there’s your Union. I hope all of you who voted “no” are proud to be British today; if there’s one thing that makes me sick to the stomach it’s children suffering, and that’s on you and your Union.
So, go wave your pretty little Union flags. You’re getting the piss ripped out of you by the Union, but don’t let that stop you.
Here is the Urban Dictionary definition of a Flamebaiter for those not familiar with the term.
A scumbag who practices the art of the Flamebait. Someone who posts in a message board or forum for the sole purpose of starting asinine pointless arguments. Is generally hated by most.
Here to help! (Term commonly used by the Flamebaiter.)
Is not using archived links a flamebait?
All Labour and LibDem apologists, i.e. Hotherperson, Carmichael and their legions of acolytes should have an extra tax applied to their earnings and that tax used to pay back PFI.
That would unburden the decent people of Scotland.
Just visited the Herald and wonder why they want to decrease sales.
Utter bilge by the usual suspects.
May I put in another plea that folk do not comment on its articles but leave them to the froth and thunder of the cerebrally impaired.
my postal vote just arrived
im in fife&mid so it has to be
snp1 and greens2
Hmmm Schrodinger, SNP 1 and Green 2 you say. It would appear that you haven’t been paying attention to either the REV or to James Kelly of Scot Goes Pop.
thats because they are wrong
kellys main arguement is based on the belief that the greens are in fact shape shifting alien lizard unionists. he is an arse who trolls his own thread.
im more than capable of thinking for myself. you should try it sometimes mosstrooper
NeoconNat @ 9:49, well said.
@Dorothy Devine
Well said. I gave that up some time ago. When you feel physical revulsion at the hatred, stupidity and bile being aimed at you, it’s time to go, and leave bitter folk rolling in their own acid.
Some are dyslexic. Grammar and spelling police could be a little more sensitive. Imo.
Off topic, but I see the Out campaign has managed to wangle Flipper Darling’s appointment as spokesperson for In. Crafty!
schrodingers cat; Mosstrooper
My postal has arrived – and I am in Stirling.
I will vote SNP 1 & 2.
My partner may well vote SNP 1 / Green 2. Not because she is voting tactically but she wants to support the Green party. That may end up damaging the SNP, but if its what she wants to support then its her vote.
I think people should vote Green or Rise if that is what they believe in, just as long as they do not do it believing it helps the SNP, or is a guarantee of supporting Independence.
While Scotland remains under London control we will never be in the position of,not only voting for what’s good for me,but also what’s good for everyone else.
We can never unwrap ourselves from Westminster chains except via the SNP,people can,will vote for who they want out of self interest,but if you’re interested in everyone else,it’s not too late.
The Act of the Union is simply a never ending PFI scheme and that Scotland has been paying for,way too long.
SNP x 2
T.roz: “NeoconNat @ 9:49, well said.”
No one with the brazen contradiction ‘Neo-Con’ and ‘Nat’ as a moniker gives a fart about ‘children suffering’, whatever that generality is meant to mean.
And if he did, he’d be out aiding the worst ‘suffering children’ rather than grandstanding with clichés on an independence site.
My branch of SNP has been working really hard since turn of the year. I’ve had 4 leaflets to deliver.
We take nothing for granted.
Only had 1 Green leaflet through the door from other parties, and not seen any activists from other parties. Green candidate makes no mention of independence. Just saying that if they are trying to trade on that.
The Greens want to close down the Oil & Gas sector, without an alternative and import Oil & Gas. The Greens want to stop fracking. Fracked Gas from the US is beng imported into Grangemouth and fracked in England. There are not separate distribution system in the UK. Fracked gas is being used. Scotland is half empty. There will be places it is safe to track. The Greens are against CCS.
The Greens collude with Unionists and renege on their polices. ACC Unionists/Greens have spent borrowed £Millions (debt) building a grotesque carbuncle in the City Centre. Against the majority wishes and the public interest. People are protesting in the street. They are spending £30Million renovating and Art Gallery. Refused a Gift of £80Million to predestrianise the City Centre. Blocked a new (funded) Community Football Stadium. That would keep traffic out of the City. The Greens wasted £Million campaigning against the AWPR funded by feudal landowners. The Greens are a disgrace.
My guess is the Greens will get 3 MSPs. 1 in Glasgow, 2 in Lothian. I’d be surprised if they got any in any other region.
i couldnt care who i vote for, if the monster raving loony party were the route to indy, i would vote for them
there is no policy i, or anyone else in scotland, can pursue or vote for which will make a blind bit of difference. even the issue of the eu will not be decided by voters in scotland.
snp will win all 9 constituencies in fife and mid, (they won 8 in 2011, which is why they also won the 7th list place on the list) and as such the 7th list place will most likely fall to the greens.
voting snp1&greens/rise/solid2 in this region has a real chance of displacing the 6th placed list msp in this region. presently wullie rennie.
now i dont know who the 2nd placed green list candidate is, i dont know who the 1st rise or solidarity candidates on the list are either. quite frankly i couldnt give a fuck, they can stand blow up sex toys for all i care.
I do believe that replacing wullie ” torn faced unionist git” rennie with a blow up doll is a huge improvement, very desirable, and it will it helps the SNP and the indy cause. I live in NEF, and am sick of seeing his smug face plastered across the tv screens or the 8 “vote for Wullie” leaflets the postie has delivered.
I intend to replace a unionist with A N Other, and if you think it is prefereable to have an arch UK unionist like rennie than someone from the Other Indy Supporting Parties, you are wrong Anagach.
just so as you know. Anagach, I predicted the 2015 Ge results for all parties to within 0.1%. for all parties. something kelly and the rev or kelly did not do.
so go ahead Anagach, votesnp1&2, but if rennie wins the 7th list msp place, ill be back on the 4th may and i wont let you forget it.
Craig P
thats because you are guessing. the reason you will be surprised that the greens win the 7th list seat in fife&mid is because you dont know the figures
Ken500
The Greens want to close down the Oil & Gas sector
do they, aye?
what difference does that make? they are not going to win this election. even if the snp wanted to close down the Oil & Gas sector, what difference would that make?
i noticed a long time ago that regardless of who we voted for in scotland we got always got thatcher. indeed, during the referendum, youtube videos were made explaining exactly this point, scotland gets the government that thr ruk votes for. also, the fact that the snp won pretty much every seat in 2015 and we still got a tory government should really make this point even more evident ken.
so, just for you Ken, ill point out the obvious.
it dont matter a flying proverbial what policies the parties in scotland stand for, or indeed who we vote for. It is Cameron who gets to decide
that is why i have been campaigning for independence for 35 years.
Well, it’s been more than 300 years that the wonderful union, ie, london rule has had to ruin Scotland. They have tried, so very hard, and been mostly successful. Until now.
The so called union have taken Scotland’s resources and squandered the cash, handing a few crumbs back to Scotland, here you go you Jocks in a land so far away.
The SNP government have been at the helm for fewer than 10 years. Their aim being to bring Scotland into the 21st century, like other resource rich countries in Europe.
The UKok government are desperate to hold onto Scotland’s resources and land and waters.
They have cut the pocket money they resentfully hand back to Scotland, from the massive revenues taken (stolen really) to London, retaining most powers which would otherwise improve the lives of the poorest in Scotland.
You just have to go to a council house ‘scheme’ to see the legacy of the UNIONISTS. That is what we are left with, a huge problem to try to put right the terrible, stinking wrongs that were perpetrated by the dirty dealing thieving unionists. With social security reserved, and all that goes with it, ie sanctions, cuts to the paltry support for our young people out of work, then people will need to rely on foodbanks because the Scottish government cannot cushion the wastemonster blows while at the same time seeing huge cuts in the block grant from UKok. (i wonder if we can get figures for sanctions across the UKok, to see where they are more prevalent).
They will take us down further if they can, and the next 3 or so weeks will see the anti SNP unionists taking things to unimaginable levels. Scotland’s election has never been so crucial to the greedy troughing yoons. In the past it was in the bag, but not now. It’s appearing just like the run up to the Independence referendum, but with no vow that they can possibly conjure which would con the people of Scotland, what do they have as last resort?
SNP x2.
Which ones?!
Ruby replies
I was referring to the New Flamebaiter!
Its just another aspect of yoon culture online. On tv, that absolute BBC dude on a couch this morn, on a beach in April, really did display the power and glory of a broadcast outfit stuffed to the brim with yoonster tories. Scottish democracy is “toxic” to yoon tory, red, blue and BBC’s right to rein over us, happy and glorious.
To be fair, that BBC ligger on his beach couch did say that while he was out and about BBC botherering people in his Scotland region, a woman showed him her YES tattoo, on her wrist, oh how we BBC larfed at the silly sweaties and their silly little ideas.
I repeat what I have said many times. When the Greens start putting candidates up and campaigning in the FPTP seats I will take them seriously.
Were it not for the media covering them generously to try to damage the SNP list vote they would be almost invisible.
The SUN editorial gives the game away today. They realise they can’t beat the SNP this time so they are downplaying the election saying nobody’s interested. We’ll hear more of this and more of Ruthie in the next few weeks
Time to get the Saltires up against for the election and a summer relaunch of Indy.
We have plenty 5ft X 3ft Saltires (polyester with eyelets and sleeve) at the Forward Shop 186 Argyll Street Dunoon PA23 7HA and will post one to anywhere in UK for £3.50
carjamtic
We can never unwrap ourselves from Westminster chains except via the SNP,people can,will vote for who they want out of self interest,but if you’re interested in everyone else,it’s not too late.
does this mean something?
SNP x 2. Why risk giving succour to politicians who do not have Scotland’s interests at heart.
Dave McEwan Hill
“I repeat what I have said many times. When the Greens start putting candidates up and campaigning in the FPTP seats I will take them seriously.
standing candidates in FPTP seats in the 2015 ge was the most damaging thing that has happened to the yes movement. ask the yes supporters in mundells seat. they should have taken solidaritys advice and not stood any candidates in any constituencys in 2015 ge or in this election
“Were it not for the media covering them generously to try to damage the SNP list vote they would be almost invisible.”
there are 8 list vote regions in scotland
solidarity, rise and the greens sould have taken my advice and not stood anyone on the list in the south region. more fool them
however, in fife&mid, the snp will win no msps from the list here. they cannot damage that which the snp doesnt have or wont win.
The one thing I would say is that if the SNP do not get a majority come this election you can be certain of one thing, the Yoon media will make sure we never forget it.
Do we really want to wake up on the 6th of May feeling the same way we felt on the 19th of September.
Dan Huil
SNP x 2. Why risk giving succour to politicians who do not have Scotland’s interests at heart.
snp1 rise/solid/greens2 in fife&mid,
Im risking giving succour to green/rise/solidarity politicians, who i have little in common with because to not do so gives succour to wullie rennie.
do you think rennie has Scotland’s interests at heart more than the rise/solidarity or green candidates?
That is the choice I am faced with. you may be in a different region, and are faced with other issues, eg 2 x libdems in orkney and shetland, in which case vote snp1&2 in the highlands.
the list vote is not a scotland wide vote, it is split into 8 regions.
i know this complicates things a bit but do try folks. it isnt rocket science
@Schrodingers cat
What’s the rational behind your comment about snp fife and mid on the list. Serious question as it’s where I live.
Fiona Hyslop on The Big Debate, right now – FFS, already passed-up two clear chances to get the boot in over the PFI scandal…
Anyone heard from Robert Peffers recently?
Hoping Robert is OK.
Scrodingers cat @ 11:50
Yes,I am promoting the case for SNP x 2,in a positive pitch,like all of us,I wrestle with,local,national and international issues,in an attempt to square the circle.
Today, politics is multi layered,clouded by all the usual bullshitters (WR),I cannot disagree with your logic though,it would on many levels be satisfying to get rid of that little creepy yoon.
Now it is time to actually vote.
I try to resist the temptation to make it personal (although I grit my teeth/clench my fists/curse on a daily basis),I try play the ball and not the (wo)man,not easy but yes,that is what I mean,I put my self interest to the side and rational equates to SNP x 2,hope this makes sense.
Word on the street.
Tory canvasser overheard saying Ruth Davidson has been shuttling around various venues with a busload of mostly English Tories pretending to have massive support backed up by plenty coverage on EBC.
Percenage of votes in the highlands has dropped below 9%
Shame.
One_Scot
The one thing I would say is that if the SNP do not get a majority come this election you can be certain of one thing, the Yoon media will make sure we never forget it.
Do we really want to wake up on the 6th of May feeling the same way we felt on the 19th of September.
no, i dont. but the system is designed so that the more constituency msp you get, the fewer list mps you get. It was created by the labour party to ensure that No party could win an overall majority. It was also designed this way so that a unionist coalition could block the snp. which is exactly what happened in 2007-2011.
i am tactically voting in fife&mid, not to undermine the snp or the yes movement, but to ensure that if the snp dont win an overall majority the there will be OIPs they can form a coalition with 2 bring about indyref2
carjamtic
your desires and frustrations mirror mine, but this isnt what is being discussed
what region are you in?
@schrodingers cat
I live in Mid Scotland and Fife. IMO there are only two non-Unionist options which will deny the Unionists seats:
SNP + SNP
SNP + Green
Looking at 2011. As you point out the SNP only got a list seat because Labour kept Cowdenbeith.
Constituencies … SNP 8, Labour 1
List seats …
SNP Annabelle Ewing
116,691 45.2%
Labour John Park, Claire Brennan-Baker, Richard Simpson
64,623 25.0%
Conservative Murdo Fraser, Elizabeth Smith
36,458 14.1%
Liberal Democrats Willie Rennie
15,103 5.9%
Scottish Green None
10,914 4.2%
I think in all probablility you are correct and the SNP will hopefully take 9 constituencies. Nothing, however, is certain.
Although the SNP are doing better in polls for the constituency vote, the list vote levels seem much like 2011.
Various things could happen.
Firstly, Labour are likely to get another list seat, having lost Cowdenbeith
Also, the Tories could increase by one list seat if polls are right.
Rennie may lose his seat.
The SNP will probably lose their one seat.
If the Greens increase their percentage from 2011 then they could win a seat.
I have to conclude that this would be at the expense of the Unionists, either stopping Lab & Tories gaining one, or taking the LD seat.
What am I going to do?
Vote SNP+SNP and take no risks because things can go wrong and they take just 8 constituencies. Also, I trust the SNP much more than the Greens.
However, for anyone who does sympathise with the Greens’ policies, it does look like there is a good possibility of them picking up a seat instead of a Unionist (if the SNP take 9 constituencies).
scottieDog
the snp won 45% of the list vote in fife&mid in 2011. 116,691 votes
this is what the present polls are saying about the present election
however, in 2011, labour won cowdenbeath constituency, the snp all other 8 constituencies in the fife&mid region
list msps calculation
no of msps 8 + 1 = 9
list votes divided by 9, 116,691/9 = 12965
12965 votes for the snp in 2011 was enough for them to beat the greens by 43 votes and win the 7th list seat in this region
present polls show that the snp will win all 9 seats in this region come may, if the list vote prediction, which is the same as 2011 is 45% then the snps number of list votes calculation is as follows
list msps calculation
no of msps 9 + 1 = 10
list votes divided by 10, 116,691/10 = 11669
this will not be enough to win the 7th list seat in this region. the greens will win the 7th seat this time.
if 6% of the snp vote were to move to rise/solid/greens then they would challenge wullie rennies total of 5.9% (the 6th placed list msp) and he would be out on his ear.
good riddins to bad rubbish
Schrödingers cat
Aberdeen South
Yes I get you,but I make the case that positivity for Indy well outweighs my personal negativity for the Yoon,which is pretty high.
I know,I am ‘preaching’ to the converted,but maybe if there was an undecided,reading any of this,they will see this is not crazy,brainwashed,cybernats as portrayed in places ,what annoyed me today,was the word toxic re: EBC interview,mentioned in a BTL comment,(not from yourself).
Slange
Green drones put all their false arguements and false stats put into a magic black box that then gives their party a fantastic result. I don’t think it will work out for them and I sincerely hope it doesn’t damage the independence movement.
Grouse Beater: “No one with the brazen contradiction ‘Neo-Con’ and ‘Nat’ as a moniker gives a fart about ‘children suffering’”
There’s no contradiction in my name, none whatsoever. You think there is because you have contradictions in your head.
The left has no monopoly on children’s welfare issues and it might surprise you to know that it’s an issue I take seriously. I’m not one for wearing my emotions on my sleeves or blowing my own trumpet when it comes to these things, and so I am happy for you to think whatever you will.
As for your role in terms of Children’s welfare and the poor, since you are keen to attack me it’s only fair that we look at what you do. And what do you do?
In your most far-fetched fantasies, do you really consider that evacuating your bowels in the form of those blog articles helps children or poor people?
Now, then, what I think is interesting about poverty is that the more we try to help, the more it seems to rise. Nobody could argue that we spend more now on alleviating poverty these things than we probably ever did.
That’s because it’s all done through the middle classes, of course, the middle classes run the public sector and the middle classes don’t come cheap. To give £1 to a poor unemployed person requires that we raise £5 in taxation. Think about that.
And so it makes perfect sense that the more we spend on trying to alleviate poverty, the poorer people get and poverty increases. Because taxing people means taking money out of society which in a direct way means there’s less money in circulation — but not for the middle classes, they get richer all the time.
I’m all for giving poor people a £1 but not if it means I need to pay £4 to the middle classes for the privilege.
Even with the Tory UK Gov. The SNP have protected NHS, have mitigated the ‘bedroom tax’, no prescription charges, personal care for the elderly, extended nursery provision, spend money mitigating welfare cuts -£100Million, supported students and extended student loan provision, created apprenticeships, kept unemployment down. The Tories have tried to ruin the Oil sector with 60/80% tax. To lose the Oil & Gas sector thousands more jobs would be lost.
The trend is still towards FFA/Independence. The Greens would damage the Scottish economy and could jeopodise FFA/Independence. They voted against it in Westminster.
Apparently we are half way through the election. Was there ever an election as dismal? I am still waiting for it to catch fire and engage the public.
The SNP have been moaned about and disparaged forever and the opposition have all conceded defeat. The last week has been bizarre with the press, the BBC, ST and C4 news all rallying round the Scottish Labour branch at its most vulnerable moment and the SNP have chosen mercy it seems on PFI.
It doesn’t feel great- unless we win an unprecedented second majority indyref2 is dead in the water and even if we win there is no clear mandate for another ref anytime soon
Our only hope is for brexit and a strong Scottish Remain vote but if voting alongside Cameron made me uneasy, voting for Alistair Darling and his scaremongering pish makes me want to vomit.
So much for the political route… can we look at other options? If indy as it stands relies on the SNP achieving a miraculous 3rd term, followed by the English withstanding project fear and the Scots being able hold their nose and align with Alistair Darling, THEN negotiate another indyref2 and beat the next mother of all fear campaigns…
if that is what we are told it will take, for me it is too difficult. We need to take a shortcut otherwise we will be fudding about on obstacle courses of our own construction forever.
A starting point would be to begin talking about UDI if we are faced with being dragged out of Europe. If we have a majority of MPs and MSPs that doesn’t seem ridiculous to me. Referenda are almost unwinnable when you are opposed by the UK state.
gala
your figures and predictions are 100% and i agree with them completely
however
Vote SNP+SNP and take no risks because things can go wrong and they take just 8 constituencies. Also, I trust the SNP much more than the Greens.
fortune favours the brave and i also trust the SNP much more than the Greens. but i would still take a green over any unionist.
thing about fife though is it is a scotland in minature. nef is like the highlands and kirkcaldy, glenrothes etc has more in common with the red clydesiders so rise or solidarity could pick up votes in these places. the greens were only 43 short of the snp in 2011, but were only 200 short of overtaking the libdems. the greens will definately overtake the libdems in this election and win the 6th seat but rennie will win the 7th seat unless the greens can double their vote. unlikely. but if rise/solidarity picked up 6% of the vote, about 15000, they would wipe out the libdems completely
i have seen nothing to convince me that the libdems/labour or the tories will increase their vote (unless from each other) in this region.
being afraid of taking this risk gala, is the only genuine argument i have heard against tactical voting in this election. but as i said, fortune favours the brave
Can I ask a kinda not at all serious question…if ye didn’t vote in the Independence referendum are ye in a position tae criticise those who voted No…or Yes?
Can the abstainers really point the finger at those on either side?
This question is prompted by our oft calling out of Labour criticising the policies and law bills of the Tories whilst abstaining on those bills when it came to the bit. Shouting loudly about how terrible the Tories are having abstained at the critical point of a bill’s passage through the HoC’s crucial to whether said bill’s would have passed.
It’s the hypocrisy angle I’m interested in. Asking fur a pal. 😉
Ken500
The trend is still towards FFA/Independence. The Greens would damage the Scottish economy and could jeopodise FFA/Independence. They voted against it in Westminster.
the unionists voted against it too, your argument suggests you prefer dugdale of davidson to patrick harvey?
you may have forgotton the indyref but i havent
harvey is walking a very fine line by dumbing down on indy to attract no supporters.
many of the SG candidates are from the old guard, some are no supporters, eg andy wightman, but they quadrupled their membership after the referendum and these new members didnt come from the better together camp. a very fine line to walk indeed.
the greens will not undermine independence, why, because they will not have enough msps to influence anything.
if you think unionists are prefereable to rise,solidarity or the greens msps and wont undermine independence, you are deluded
I think if you want to influence the SNP you join that party. It’s very simple & straightforward, the SNP’s a very broad church and could accommodate the likes of Andy Wightman no problem & to much better effect, Andy could have been adopted as a candidate years ago & a comstituency seat in the Parliament.
The Greens are a parasitic outfit who want a compliant host to help further their incincere & unbridled political ambitions. A bit like salmon lice or tapeworms really, to use a green analogy.
My postal vote is has arrived for Glasgow & it’s an honest SNP 1 & 2 for Fred & nae jouggery pokery whatsoever!
@ Thepnr, the Gaelic for Glen has two N’s, but different spelling. It’s a dugs name anyhow which suits Campbell. His erstwhile kennel-mate Buchanan told wan lie too many.
@K1
Short answer would be no. If people don’t get engaged when their vote was needed, they have no call to criticise others who did step up. People live in the system/society their apathy ensures. Or to put it another way, the person who stands for nothing will lie down for anything.
Thanks Macart, that’s my thinking on it too.
carjamtic
Schrödingers cat
Aberdeen South
🙂 i was a member of the bonaccord branch in aberdeen for many years, if you think the news is depressing now, in the 80-90s we could hold an snp meeting in a telephone box 🙁
the NE region is one of the safest regions in scotland, the snp have taken all constituency is the last 2 elections (10 for holyrood)
they also took 1 list msp with 52% of the vote, but beating the greens to the 7th seat by less than 200 votes. thats because their total 140k votes were divided by 11.
it is unlikely that 140k of snp voters would ever change and vote tactically, especially after the campaign by the rev and kelly, but i hold out hope that the OIP can get enough votes to win at least 2 list msps and send the unionists into oblivion.
i am glad to see richard baker has been dumped by labour, i knew him when i was at uni in aberdeen. he would bile his grunnie doon fer glue to win a vote and the other unionist candidates are even worse. the fewer elected from the list the better
David
Green drones put all their false arguements and false stats put into a magic black box that then gives their party a fantastic result.
a well argued point which fills a well needed blank space.
im not a green or rise or solidarity supporter, i was campaigning for indy when most in todays indy movement still thought the fuckin spice girls were pretty cool. stick that in yer box sonny
the only fantastic result for indy would be seeing unionists losing their seats. why do you prefer torys to greens?
fred
The Greens are a parasitic outfit who want a compliant host to help further their incincere & unbridled political ambitions. A bit like salmon lice or tapeworms really, to use a green analogy.
bravo, except im not here to blow their trumpet, or rise or solidarity’s either.
im trying to get rid of unionists.
in 3 weeks time, my snp flags and banners will be replaced with yes2 ones. 3 weeks after the eu ref result we could find ourselves back in a full blown indyref2 campaign, which will include many of these “parsites” you mention.
well done, have a round of applause.
Thanks for that Cat, I just happen to cherish my vote, our ancestors fought hard to get it, the Scottish Radicals of 1820 were punished by hanging & beheading for their temerity in demanding the right to vote, the lucky ones were shipped out to penal colonies in Australia for life for demanding the right to vote. Universal sufferage isn’t yet a century old. Countless generation of Scots had no say in any fucking thing in their entire lifetimes.
The vote is a sacred thing & a privelege, it’s not to be lightly squandered by pissing about even considering Mickey Mouse parties & their delusional leaders.
Post-independence….mebbes aye, mebbes naw! probably naw!
I believe in Independence, I believe Scotland should and will be Independent. I believe the SNP are currently the best vehicle to gain Independence in the fastest and most orderly fashion.
SNP/SNP Remain. Anything else at the moment is a distraction.
NeoConNat: “Because taxing people means taking money out of society which in a direct way means there’s less money in circulation”
The waffle of an adolescent discovered to have eaten all the chocolate biscuits. It’s so obviously stupid a remark it needs no answering.
I just happen to cherish my vote,
bravo
the Scottish Radicals of 1820…., bravo too
except using other peoples endeavours and tribulations to justify your reasons for calling other indy supporters “parasites” is nothing more than an attempt to lick the sweat off dead mens balls
bravo
frogesque
what region are you in?
I think this may be an opportune moment to remind those posters who are being dismissive of smaller non-SNP pro-indy parties of Rev Stu’s first injunction: “Write as if an undecided voter is reading”. After all, the name of the game is to convince as many people as possible that independence is the essential outcome.
Yes, the Scottish elections are a very important waypoint to that, and it’s understandable that many feel that SNPx2 is necessary to keep the show on the road. Which is fine. But it does no good disrespecting others who also want indy but via a different route.
I’m personally not a RISE supporter, but I was impressed by Cat Boyd, who mentioned the other day that she was able to engage with a young man from a Unionist background and convince him to understand how things really stand and convert him to the indy cause. Now that is surely a gain for us all, is it not? Every little helps!
schrodingers cat
Sad that it has come to this. ‘Parasites’ WTF? The respect and togetherness between the indy parties was cheaply cast aside.
I applaud your efforts and wish more folk applied the same rigour to their vote.
I blame Yes Scotland winding up too soon and ALL the indy parties for not foreseeing this and acting sooner. A carve up is not democratic but intelligent folk could have found a way forward if the will was there and the egos were parked.
I don’t like finding myself in an opposing camp to Jim Sillars or Patrick Harvie or Cat Boyd and I certainly am not in an opposing camp to you.
Let’s get this fucking election out of the way then we can get on with indy2 and the Leave by Remaining while they Leave campaign.
@schrodingers cat
Thanks.
Grousey, always good to be quoted.
You questioned my economics credentials a few days ago and I can tell you now that was a mistake. But I’m disappointed that you don’t wish to take the subject any further; maybe you now know you’re dealing with a man who knows a thing or two.
It is true and self evident to the point of being a scientific statement of fact, that taxing people removes money from the economy and society. The middle classes and the left argue that it comes back to us; they conjure up Keynes like Obi Wan Kenobi and rabble on about the dark side as they share the proceeds of their crimes.
But every £1 of public money spent equates to £5 robbed. And 90% of it ends up in the banks of the middle class morons.
I have solutions but I’m not sure you are ready for them quite yet. What can I say, I’m ahead of my time.
Agree with almannysbunnet 9.16am. On the morning of the scottish election, ‘scotlands chumpion’ will probably have a headline with the dug proclaiming if she is elected, two weeks free holiday in benidorm for every pensioner, and free vouchers for ‘ben and jerry’s. Non stop mardi gras for everyone. Dont laugh. There’ enough stupid #@$#@#@# out there who’ll believe it.
What happens to a flamebaiter if they are just ignored?
NeoconNat: “I have solutions but I’m not sure you are ready for them quite yet.”
Still talking down to contributors, I see.
There used to be an English resident with exactly the same mentality as yours, said he was all for self-determination, but wanted it rooted in extreme discredited capitalism. Finally getting the message he was considered a nuisance and not the Oxbridge don he painted himself, he left the fray. I fear the fool and his quackery are back.
I wouldn’t say I’m going cold on politics, but there isn’t a campaign I can really throw my weight behind.
Whether you vote SNP, RISE, Green, whatever, the result won’t get to our public without first being filtered through the Union’s omnipotent propaganda censors, and downgraded and diffused to suit their agenda and frustrate ours.
I have made no secret of my personal issues with the SNP, but even if I didn’t have such issues, I believe I would still have no time for their insipid tolerance for the media bias. Our friends in the SNP say hold your nerve, there’s a long term strategy at work here. Look where we are compared to where we were… Which kind of puts me in a loop, and back I return to my personal grievance, where the SNP didn’t help, didn’t grasp the issues, and had no idea what was really going on, nor any interest in finding out. I am asked to take so much on trust, having every trust I put in the SNP to date being casually betrayed.
I have a very simple formula. I earnestly believe that Scottish Independence would be a shoe in if Scotland had a free and independent news media which wasn’t a mouthpiece for Unionism. I fervently believe it is wall to wall propaganda which keeps us in our place. So my formula? I believe the person, group, party or movement who can spike the guns of the Unionist media circus will hold the key to Scotland becoming independent.
It isn’t going to happen in May. Nothing is going to change. It isn’t an SNP majority or minority government which is the biggest threat to Indyref 2, it is the poisonous media which thrives in our Livingrooms. That threat will remain and endure whatever the results are in May.
Yes, I will vote SNP, because it is pretty much all any diligent foot soldier for Independence can do, but I cannot escape the feeling we are merely treading water. This time next year, we’ll all still be here, and wringing our hands about some gross misrepresentation of the truth and fretting about what it means for Scotland.
I have any number of ideas to destabilise the Unionist media, via plebiscite, downgrading press access for some, elevating others, sponsoring “shadow” broadcasting akin to pirate radio etc. There are so many things we could do but currently we do nothing. We have the green shoots of a freestanding media here, in blogs, websites, podcasts, and video conferencing online… But green shoots are very vulnerable to frosts and herbivores. They need protection and a steady supply of nutrients, but I’m not at all sure they are getting them.
It’s not an issue of policy for me, it’s an issue of priority. Address the media bias. Every matter of policy is, and forever will be, dangerously compromised until this singular issue has been resolved. It is this one issue which cuts to the very essence of our freedom… and yet it seems nobody will touch it.
Thing is that a load of those who vote Green on the list and SNP at the constituency level might actually be Green voters voting tactically. To then disparage a party whos voters may very well be responsible for an SNP majority is disrespectful to say the least. It’s more a form of symbiotism like thon wee birds who clean the teeth of crocodiles.
Personally at this point I’ll probably vote SNP so as not to dilute the message to Westminster. If I got a clear indication that voting Green might make a blind bit of difference to them getting another seat then I might be persuaded to throw a vote their way. Doesn’t seem likely though.
Another Union Dividend says:
15 April, 2016 at 8:43 am
Is it not time some SNP politician told the apologists for Labour’s Edinburgh schools PFI fiasco that when these contracts were being put out to tender the Labour Scottish Executive was sending £1.5 Billion back to the London Treasury from Scotland’s budget, so PFI was not a necessity, but a desire to make some very rich people much richer.
I have amended some word above for greater detail.
It Is Labour who need to be nailed for this Schools PFI
in Edinburgh. They did not use our budget for these new schools but instead gave away our money in order to cripple us with pay day loan interest rates over very long terms.
It was the Edinburgh Labour Council who should have had their Building control regularly monitoring progress across
all 17 sites. It was the Labour Council who would have to agree on habitation certificates when the monitored work was complete.
I have building trade experience and I can guarantee that the Site Agents, and the Bricklayers would All have questioned where the Wall Ties where as they know that they are essential for safety.
These guys must have been threatened with their jobs during a recession if they made any form of protest.
Someone has co-ordinated this threat to teachers and children as so many skilled people must have been silenced
or instructed to turn a blind eye to the fundamentals of their craft.
Westminster Labour Bad, Scottish Labour Bad, Edinburgh Council Labour Bad. Labour Media Bad.
as it happened across all sites with
Think the problem is that there was a design innovation in these buildings that assumed the external wall wasn’t needed for support. Looking at the picture of the one that collapse you get a clue as to how it was meant to be.
The structure is actually a metal frame that is then closed with breeze block inner walls. Then insulation pannels are fitted and the whole lot closed in a cladding of a single brick wall, although I’d be willing to bet the white bit on the right of the picture is actually more breeze block.
The “mistake” may simply have been the assumption that as that outer wall wasn’t supporting that it could be free standing. Of course if it’s an error in design then all 17 will need remedial work as will any others sharing the same design philosophy.
2011 Mid Scotland and Fife region
party / share / share divided by tot seats + 1, etc
Lab. 25.0% 12.5 12.5 8.3 6.3 6.3 5.0 5.0 5.0
Con. 14.1% 14.1 07.1 7.1 7.1 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
SNP 45.2% 05.2 05.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 4.5
LibD 05.9% 05.9 05.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 3.0 3.0
Grns 04.2% 04.2 04.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
—- —— —– Con Lab Lab Con Lab Lib SNP
If there was an 8th list seat, Lab would have won it, 9th Con, 10th SNP.
From that if the SNP had won Cowdenbeath from Labour, but all kept the same regional vote, it would have gone like this:
Lab. 25.0% 25.0 12.5 12.5 8.3 6.3 6.3 5.0 5.0
Con. 14.1% 14.1 14.1 07.1 7.1 7.1 4.7 4.7 4.7
SNP 45.2% 04.5 04.5 04.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
LibD 05.9% 05.9 05.9 05.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 3.0
Grns 04.2% 04.2 04.2 04.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
—- —– —- Lab Con Lab Lab Con Lab Lib
If there was an 8th list seat, Lab would have won it, 9th Con, 10th SNP. And the percentages are exactly the same at the end, as you’d expect.
What does that prove? Shrug!