Wings Over Scotland

Professor John Curtice, a psephologist at Strathclyde University and the Scottish media's go-to guy for all political analysis, is often attacked by "cybernats" for alleged partiality in favour of Labour. This blog sighs in despair whenever online nationalists automatically scream "Biased!" at anyone who doesn't come onscreen in a kilt and Jimmy hat singing "Flower Of Scotland", but it has to be said that Prof. Curtice has done himself no favours at all this week.

As co-author of a report published yesterday by the Electoral Reform Society Scotland, the good professor has launched what the Scotsman today calls a "strongly worded attack" on Holyrood's proportional electoral system, under which the SNP won a majority of seats (53%) on 45% of the vote. As we noted yesterday, it's odd that the ERSS has chosen now to demand changes to the system, given that when Labour/Lib Dem coalitions had Holyrood majorities in 1999 and 2003, they also commanded less than 50% of the vote (45.5% between them in 2003, 49.5% in 1999), and nobody seemed to have a problem with that.

Now, to be fair to Prof. Curtice, the Scotsman does put words in his mouth, in their characteristic manner. The headline of the piece claims that the report brands the Holyrood system "a failure" (a description which we can't find anywhere in it) and also asserts that the report demands the system "should be changed to prevent one party winning an overall majority", which is something of an exaggeration – Curtice only actually says that the objective of the proposed changes is to make a majority "more difficult", not impossible.

But by fronting such a suspiciously-timed report, the Professor and the ERSS have allowed their credibility to be undermined by exactly the sort of distortion the Unionist media specialises in, and in doing so have left themselves dreadfully open to allegations of political colour. The society claims their motivation is honourable, and aimed only at promoting a fuller range of political views:

"We are convinced our democracy would work better with more parties in the system, so that more voices are represented and heard and that power is shared, checked and balanced."

…but the current method of electing the Scottish Parliament is perfectly capable of delivering that – in 2003, for example, the Greens got 7 seats, the Scottish Socialists won 6 seats and two independents also secured seats, those three groups between them providing almost 12% of the Parliament's MSPs. (For comparison, imagine the UK Parliament having 78 MPs from outwith the three main parties – the actual number is 28, with only one of those representing an English constituency.)

The simple fact is, the electorate could have elected a wider range of MSPs if they'd wanted to, as they have done in the past. Instead, they overwhelmingly chose the SNP. That's democracy, because in practice almost no democracy on Earth is perfectly proportional. This blog has no objections to bringing the Scottish Parliament closer to that ideal, but it's decidedly odd that supposedly neutral organisations like the ERSS didn't feel the need to suddenly press for it until the SNP won a majority.

We're absolutely confident, however, that the author of the above quote – the society's director Willie Sullivan – also being a Labour councillor in his day job (a fact the Scotsman inexplicably neglects to mention) is entirely coincidental.

PS The replacement PR method proposed by the ERSS report is one devised by the French mathematician André Sainte-Laguë. His most famous work is the calculation that it was scientifically impossible for bumblebees to be able to fly.

Scottish Labour embarrassed themselves horribly today when they jumped on comments from SNP MSP Stewart Maxwell in which he noted that the Scottish Government was only legally empowered to hold an advisory referendum on independence rather than a binding one. Not withstanding the fact that ALL referenda in the UK are only advisory, whether conducted by Holyrood or Westminster or anyone else, Labour’s humiliating blunder was in triumphantly asserting there was something new about this position, when in fact the very first sentence of the SNP’s National Conversation website – dating back over two years – says the exact same thing:

“The First Minister has outlined plans for a public consultation on a draft Referendum Bill which sets out proposals for an advisory referendum on extending the powers of the Scottish Parliament.”

But there’s another aspect to the nature of referenda that everyone seems to be inexplicably overlooking of late. The Unionist parties have recently ramped up a campaign in which they demand the SNP “clarify” every last item of policy in an independent Scotland, from currency and EU membership to renewable energy transmission costs, pension provision, and all the way down to what colour the First Minister’s going to paint Bute House’s front door. What nobody seems to have grasped is the fairly crucial point that that’s not what a referendum is for.

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The Scottish Liberal Democrats (remember them?) are rather excited today. With their finger on the pulse of the nation as usual, they invite citizens of Scotland and the UK to rejoice in our low, low petrol prices. No, that's not a typo – they mean low compared to Norway, Scotland's oil-rich neighbour whose people apparently pay up to 20p a litre more than us at the pumps. This concerns all five of Scotland's remaining Lib Dems greatly, as they fret that "hard-pressed families" in an independent Scotland might be forced to pay similar sums for their fuel.

Of course, those same families might be prepared to bear that burden if in return they were to enjoy Norwegian levels of salary. The average Norwegian worker takes home an impressive £46,700 or so a year, in one of the most economically equal countries on the planet, compared to the UK average of £25,500. As a driver, I'd personally like to take this opportunity to announce that I will happily pay a 20p-a-litre premium in exchange for an extra £21,000 a year, should any party wish to propose such a policy. How about you, readers?

Ever since the SNP achieved what was thought by most people to be impossible – winning an absolute majority in the Scottish Parliament under its proportional representation system – the Unionist camp has discovered a sudden pressing concern about the perils of majority government (regardless of the fact that almost every UK Parliament in history has operated with an absolute majority on a minority of the vote, and that Labour and the Tories regularly proclaim this as a great benefit of the wildly undemocratic First Past The Post method thanks to its delivery of "strong" governments, and oppose any form of PR for Westminster).

This concern was given voice today in a report by the Electoral Reform Society, proposing a change in the rules governing Holyrood's system of proportional representation, to a format which – quite coincidentally – would have resulted in the SNP narrowly missing out on a majority in May. The society's justification for the change was that "democracy works better with more parties represented", which seems a hard argument to find fault with.

The odd thing about the report, though, is that the Sainte-Laguë system which it put forward as the solution would have done precisely nothing to increase the number of parties represented at Holyrood, as this analysis of the results by Better Nation shows. The existing parties/groups would have had their representations fiddled around with slightly, but the same six (SNP, Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, Green and independents) would have won seats as actually did. The only difference would have been that the pro-independence Greens would have held the balance of power, wielding a disproportionate influence with their 7 seats over the 64-seat SNP, as they could have held them to ransom over any policy they chose as a price for supporting an independence referendum.

This blog is a supporter of PR, so that's all fair enough. But it's curious that this report has suddenly raised issues with Holyrood now, after 12 years, just at the point where the SNP has taken control over it. It'll be interesting to hear the Unionist parties' take on it, and how they'll square it with the FPTP system at Westminster. Is "strong government" good or bad? As with many things, we suspect the answer depends which side of the border you're on.

Scottish Left Review's "independence issue", in keeping with the publication's core philosophy, gives equal opportunity to both sides of the debate this month. Both a nationalist and a Unionist were asked to provide a "positive case" for their respective positions, from a left-wing perspective, and two substantial figures took up the challenge. For independence we heard from Stephen Maxwell (the Treasurer of the Scottish Independence Convention and the director of the SNP’s campaign for a yes vote in the 1979 referendum), whereas the Union's champion was current Lothians MSP Neil Findlay. The contrast is interesting.

Maxwell's piece, it must be said, is in fact largely negative. It focuses on the damage done to Scotland by various Tory governments, and that yet to come from the current one, while also making the legitimate but far-from-positive point that UK Labour now offers little more than a diluted version of Tory policies (for example on welfare reform). It does, however, also make a decent case for an independent Scotland being better able to afford social-democratic policies (thanks in part to increased oil income and significantly reduced defence expenditure), as well as having the demonstrated political will to carry them out. Maxwell reaches a cautious but optimistic conclusion about a greater sense of national self-confidence and the ability to challenge the prevailing neo-conservative view of UK politics.

Findlay's "positive case for the Union", however, (also run on LabourHame) presents only a dismaying blend of scaremongering, negativity and hopeless defeatism – indeed, it explicitly asserts that the SNP's optimism is a "mistaken analysis". It warns of the dangers of nationalism (spectacularly missing the point of civic as opposed to ethnic nationalism), then accuses the SNP of being pro-business and complains about the SNP's intention to remain in the EU, as if either of these were policies on which the Unionist parties offered an alternative standpoint.

Findlay then looks wistfully back at the working-class (small-L) labour movements of the 50s, 60s and 70s, characterising them as something that could somehow only have happened within the context of the UK without offering any explanation as to why. This is a viewpoint that neglects, for example, to consider the way even partial independence has enabled the Scottish NHS to resist many of the worst market-based "reforms" in the sector that have befallen England and Wales, or the education sector to retain free tuition while English and Welsh students are cast into debt.

He then ponders whether devo-max within the UK could offer social-democratic solutions for Scotland, before being forced to admit that there is no party in Scotland offering it, rendering the question something of a moot point. He concludes that "the role of the Labour and Trade Union movement has to be in evaluating and recommending just what arrangement is most appropriate for ordinary people", which ranks high on the scale of "the bleeding obvious" but perhaps more importantly has nothing whatsoever to do with the question he was asked, namely to provide a positive case for achieving such things under the Union as opposed to independence. "We need to think about it" isn't much of an answer.

It is strikingly and empirically self-evident that in the world as it currently exists, Scotland is better placed to pursue social-democratic policies on its own than within the UK. This is not a supposition or an opinion but a bare black-and-white fact: the UK, after all, just elected a neo-conservative government, while Scotland overwhelmingly returned a social-democratic one, and those respective governments will rule for the best part of the next half-decade (and probably longer). Findlay's piece contains not a single sentence of practical positivity, just vague socialist nostalgia combined with a fantasy about a UK political environment that doesn't currently exist and shows no signs of doing so. Is it really so hard to think of a single positive advantage of the Union? For now, the wait goes on.

We've just caught up with an interesting piece over at Bella Caledonia from a few days ago, in which Robin McAlpine, editor of the non-aligned Scottish Left Review, heralds that publication's "independence issue" with an overview of the Scottish political left wing's position on the subject. We'll let you read it for yourself, but the takeaway soundbite is this one:

"roughly no-one seems to have been persuaded out of a pre-existing pro-independence position but more and more people are moving in the other direction"

The true nature of the modern Labour Party seems to have taken a while to fully dawn on the left, in the UK but particularly in Scotland, and it's intriguing to see a slow but perceptible shift begin to take place, especially with regard to trade unions. The fight between Unionists and the independence movement for the heart and soul of socialism seems to be very much on.

The source is Lord Foulkes so it's probably best not to have it tattooed onto your forehead or anything, but the Express reports today a possible twist in the referendum saga that, if it turns out to be true, would be a genuinely surprising and interesting development. The thirsty peer notes that the Scotland Bill in its current form is a "dead parrot" – given that it's likely to be rejected by Holyrood if not significantly enhanced, something for which the coalition has no apparent appetite – and that as such it's likely to be abandoned altogether, with pressure of time in the House Of Lords cited as the face-saving reason.

It's extremely hard to imagine the Unionist parties rallying around a flag of "no change at all" in the referendum, so it may yet be that the devo-max option isn't as dead as it currently seems. Keep watching this space.

As the debate continues to rage about the legality or otherwise of a Holyrood-run independence referendum, the SNP's Stephen Noon provides a handy reference list of both professional constitutional expert opinion and some pretty unequivocal quotes from non-SNP politicians. While many fight over the technicalities, the argument that in practice Westminster would do nothing to obstruct the referendum, for fear of a counter-productive outcome, remains the most plausible.

"Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said minimum pricing was not a magic bullet, but a part of the solution."
(BBC, 1 Nov 2011)

"Sturgeon said a minimum price was 'not a magic bullet'"
(Alcohol Policy UK, 1 Nov 2011)

"Minimum pricing is not a magic bullet, but it is a huge step in the right direction."
(Nicola Sturgeon, Evening Times, 8 Sep 2011)

"[Nicola Sturgeon] doesn’t and never has believed that minimum pricing is the magic bullet solution."
(Holyrood magazine, 15 Oct 2010)

"We should not see any particular initiative as a magic bullet — we need a strong package of measures. That initiative was simply another tool in the box."
(Nicola Sturgeon, Findlaw UK, 30 Sep 2010)

"While [minimum pricing] is not a magic bullet, it would effectively target problem drinkers and help them reduce their alcohol consumption."
(Nicola Sturgeon, STV News, 31 Aug 2010)

"While it's not a magic bullet, we believe that minimum pricing would effectively target problem drinkers."
(Nicola Sturgeon, Newsnet Scotland, 9 June 2010)

"The SNP seem to think that minimum unit pricing is some sort of silver bullet."
(Richard Simpson, Labour Shadow Health Minister, 14 Nov 2011)

Sigh.

We’re going to come right out and say it. Tom Harris MP will not be the next leader of Scottish Labour. This is because while Scottish Labour might be collectively a bit dim, it’s not THAT dim. Despite having by far the highest media profile of the three leadership candidates (which, in fairness, is clearing a not-very-high bar), Harris failed to secure the support of a single Holyrood MSP for his nomination, a situation that would hopelessly undermine whichever unfortunate lackey was chosen to deliver his attacks on Alex Salmond at First Minister’s Questions.

Opponents of blood sports would shy away from the screen in horror as Labour challenged the FM every week with – at best – a deputy leader acting as a mouthpiece for a Westminster MP. The lack of credibility of an MSP group unable to put forward a single member of sufficient talent to lead would make the party in Scotland a laughing stock, particularly if – as might well happen – the new deputy was a Westminster politician too, such as Ian Davidson or Anas Sarwar.

The SNP, though, will doubtless be hoping against hope that Harris manages to win anyway, because the MP for Glasgow South would represent a massive liability to Labour in many other ways too.

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Lots of stuff going on in the papers on Saturday and Sunday which we didn't have time to feature individually. The Daily Record covers Lord Forsyth's latest bright idea, namely that SNP MSPs should be forced to pay for the referendum should it be judged unlawful, a bizarre notion given that if the referendum were to be so judged it's hard to see how it could go ahead at all.

Conversely, the New Statesman runs a balanced and realistic piece on "Who owns the Scottish independence referendum?", identifying some of the possible legal implications but also coming to a practical conclusion about what will actually happen. Meanwhile – in fact from earlier last week but having hitherto escaped our attention – Aidan O'Neill QC pens a rather less balanced and less realistic view for The Guardian on the same subject, which ends up insisting that not only would any referendum have to be run by Westminster but that it would have to be conducted across the UK. The article is strikingly detached from the real world, but is notable for some excellent and highly-informed reader comments. (After the first one.)

The Scottish Left Review has a somewhat daunting but detailed account of the conduct of Labour-led Glasgow City Council, in the light of Newsnet Scotland's revelation that the head of the City Building ALEO (arm's-length external organisation), set up by the disgraced former council leader Steven Purcell and the subject of allegations of cronyism and patronage, is set to receive a £615,000 payoff funded by the taxpayer after just five years' service to the company.

Scotland On Sunday features the story that Labour flak-magnet Tom Harris (of whom more shortly) is trying to push a so-called "Clarity Act" through Westminster in order to grant the UK Parliament de facto control over the referendum, based on Harris' erroneous claim that "The Scottish Government has a mandate but it is for a specific question on independence."

The same paper also details Michael Portillo's advocation of full fiscal autonomy for Scotland, the first time (so far as we're aware) that a significant Tory figure has called for a version of "devo max" as their preferred option for Scotland's constitutional future. These are interesting times.

There's a mildly remarkable story on the BBC website today. While the Herald reports that John Swinney has "thwarted" the UK coalition government's plans to drastically slash public-sector pensions, the BBC covers an SNP claim, based on the UK Government's own GERS statistics, that Scotland is better placed to afford pensions and welfare than the UK.

One might imagine that when responding to this claim, the Scotland Office would be armed with its own interpretation of the facts and figures with which to refute the SNP's assertions. Instead, what we actually get is an extraordinary playground outburst in which the Scottish Government is accused of "Flat Earth economics", and an increasingly hysterical rant in which an unnamed spokesman rages:

"Their argument completely fails to explain how much pensions and welfare would be and who would administer or pay for them or exactly how a separate Scotland with a smaller tax base [1], an ageing population [2] and a bigger ratio of public sector workers and welfare claimants [3] could possibly lead to things being better."

…to which the answer would presumably be "for the precise reasons outlined in the UK Government's own figures – Scotland spends less on those things than the UK does, and could therefore afford to be more generous, even if you discount the argument that an independent Scotland would be better off than at present."

The Scotland Office is funded by the taxpayer. We're not sure it should be getting this angry about what would appear by any interpretation to be positive news for Scotland.

[1] In fact Scotland contributes 9.4% of UK taxation with 8.4% of the population.

[2] Also true of the UK as a whole, not just Scotland.

[3] This is, of course, already factored into the GERS figures.