Oilmageddon
Political etiquette is a funny thing. Should some of the more vocal supporters of a Yes vote dare to express any degree of satisfaction at a couple of dozen journalists’ jobs being lost on a Unionist newspaper, social media is suddenly aflame with pious, angry lectures about the poor taste of rejoicing in others’ unemployment – regardless of whether it might perhaps have been caused by the paper’s own unethical actions.
But when tens of thousands of blameless oil workers face unemployment just before Christmas, it’s proving all but impossible for Unionists to keep a lid on their glee.
We’re spoiled for examples, but we’ll take one from today’s Telegraph:
You can almost feel Iain Martin’s blood vessels popping as he tries to keep a sombre, concerned look on his face while delighting in the chance to sacrifice thousands of jobs if only it will stop the dastardly Nats in their tracks.
Yet let’s ponder the reality for a moment.
No he wouldn’t, you imbecile. If Scotland had voted Yes, independence negotiations would barely have even begun. The oil price, and the revenues derived from it, would “right now” still be Westminster’s problem. Scotland wouldn’t have been independent until spring 2016 at the earliest, and Unionist commentators like Martin insisted that in reality the process would have taken years.
If the oil price is still in the doldrums 18 months from now, the No camp will have a small, if still unseemly, degree of political justification for gloating over the job losses and potential economic consequences. Until then, drawing any sort of link between the oil price and the economic case for independence is empirically idiotic.
Throughout the campaign Scots were told time and time again that the UK’s “broad shoulders” would protect them from such fluctuations in oil revenue. Yet the price has only been falling for a few weeks and we’re told that the entire industry is already “close to collapse”, with tens of thousands of jobs set to be lost.
But one oil-producing nation that’s unconcerned by these developments, of course, is Norway. Sitting on an oil fund now in excess of half a TRILLION pounds, Scotland’s neighbours across the sea could afford to sit out the current slump for decades.
Unionists angrily insist that Scotland couldn’t have had a similar fund because it has run a constant budget deficit for the last 20+ years:
But crucially, that overlooks the fact that it only ran that deficit because it was in the UK. Even before you factor in the savings that could have been made (most obviously on defence) if Scotland hadn’t been subject to UK spending decisions, independent analysis shows that Scots subsidised the rest of the UK by £222bn over that period.
Furthermore, the firmly Unionist economist Professor Brian Ashcroft found last year that Scotland’s deficit was entirely down to having to pay interest on the UK’s debt:
A very modest oil fund of that size would have protected Scotland for many years. Earlier this year the OBR predicted that oil revenues for 2016/17 would be just £3.3bn. Even if the oil price fell so far that companies made no profit at all, and therefore no tax revenue accrued to the Scottish Government, that would make only a small dent in even Prof. Ashcroft’s worst-case £68bn fund (which also assumes no investment growth), let alone the more realistic £222bn one.
So the No camp is, as usual, trying to have it both ways. They’re airbrushing out the oil fund Scotland would have had if it had been independent already, while at the same time pretending that if Scotland had only just voted for independence in September we’d be having to deal with it now, when in fact it would still be London’s problem.
None of this is complicated. Every journalist and politician in Scotland knows that even if there’d been a Yes vote the current price of oil would be Westminster’s headache, not Holyrood’s. Every one of them knows that the oil price in spring 2016 could be just about anything, because absolutely nobody predicted the current slump even 18 weeks ago, let alone 18 months.
(They also know that the reasons for the fall are almost certainly geopolitical, and are very likely to be the result of deliberate short-term engineering aimed at punishing, variously, Russia, Iran and the USA.)
Yet all you’ll read in the Scottish press is “OIL PRICE EMBARRASSMENT FOR SNP”, and lurid tales of “Greece-style economic meltdown” as dim-witted political hacks fall over themselves to praise Kezia “Deputy” Dugdale for attacking the Nats on the crisis at Holyrood yesterday. (Dugdale, of course, already has much experience in blaming the SNP for things which are entirely reserved to Westminster.)
We know news is pretty slow in Scottish politics at the moment. But even so, on balance we’re going to stick to writing 2016’s stories in 2016.
Well said Rev.
Stomach turning stuff from the usual suspects.
Scottish Hydrogen link to gla.ac.uk
Divest from fossil fuels link to gla.ac.uk
Solar if we want get too rich and feel klike providing clean water too link to huffingtonpost.co.uk
Yup, when it comes to stick beating low oil price and job losses is bad for Scotland, *but the British economy? (that part is never mentioned)
Well said Stu, They are simply trying to deflect from the fact that Osborne and so will be shitting themselves because it was always about oil (for them) and the UK’s bankruptcy will be further hastened and less easy to disguise with money printing wheezes the longer the price stays low. Sit back and watch – the expertise of Scottish Oil workers is world renowned and internationally sought after so therefor highly transferable, and I believe that in Shetland they are still hiring and cant get folk to stock the shelves of the evil Tescos such is the rush to better paid work…
McDougall is pond life.
The bastard is sitting in London, counting his 20 pieces of silver, and laughing at the misfortune of those that used to be his countrymen and women.
Heard ‘Ruthie’ on mawkish BBC Radio ‘End of a Momentous Year’ show talk of the loss of oil as devastating for the independence camp, and go one to guffaw like a drain at the claim there is no ‘triumphalism’ in the Yes camp.
Gawd, she’s a seriously dim witted person.
Triumphalism can only be attributed to winners unless the losers planned to lose and benefit from their loss in some material way.
Accurately used in the context of the Referendum result, ‘triumphalism’ refers to Unionist thugs in George Square who kicked and punched gloomy Yes supporters, and ripped the Saltires from their hands.
Which paper shed a dozen jobs? Please say it was the daily record!
But what a tool McDougall is… So how are we “better together” right now? How is Westminster saving our industry? Since we are part of the UK, then surely this economic downturn will be barely even noticed?
@Juteman
I take it McDougal was short changed. The going rate used to be 30 pieces of silver.
Oh well. Tough cookies!
I was googling to find what price the OBR had predicted but can only find predicted revenue figures up to 2040.
Does anyone know what price per barrel the OBR had predicted?
Blair really really does not have a clue, does he? He’s doing such a great job of ensuring all the Labour yessers he drove away in their hundreds of thousands will never return.
Way to go, Blair! Scottish Labour on 15% in yesterday’s IPSOS MORi Scottish sub-sample. 15%!! It’s worse than the toxic tories at their lowest. Keep up the good work, Blair, keep telling the people of Scotland how we’re better off with the London tories looking after us.
These are the exact points, I have been explaining to nae sayers for a couple of weeks now. Banging my head against a wall.
Thank god for the rev.
I would probably be sectioned for shouting at the TV so much, waiting for someone to point out this shite.
“Broad shoulders” is a meaningless term. If they were so broad, where are they now? Why do we have austerity?
Why is more austerity coming?
The UK’s broad shoulders are obviously too old, too weak and too arthritic to carry the loads they once did.
Economy hardly growing, oil price collapse, I am so glad Westminster has been able to pool and share resources to protect us from austerity.
I believe in Santa too.
Makes you want to weep!
Had a very similar conversation with an old timer I meet every morning in our local paper shop. He seemed surprised when I told him it would still be Osbourne’s loss at the moment.
He refused my kind offer to buy him a National, but was away home to look at this new news channel on Sky 518 I told him about 🙂
That vein in my neck is bulging rather alarmingly again. A bunch of shameless liars and conmen, they truly are ("Tractor" - Ed)s to their country. And if Mr Martin is English, then he’s obviously not a ("Tractor" - Ed), he’s just a shit.
When Andy Murray wins he’s British.
When Andy Murray loses he’s Scottish.
When oil prices are high it’s British.
When oil prices are low it’s Scottish.
@ Robert.
He is too unfit to carry the rest to his taxi south. 🙂
The Torygraph ligger is only doing his job and Bliar MacFatboy’s the archetypal teamGB ("Quizmaster" - Ed). One country has done really well out of Scots oil and gas and its England. Try driving around England and you’ll be in awe at their decades long investment in new dual carriageways and motorways practically to every city and town in England. All of it paid for with a great deal of help from scrounger Scotland. We are a colony. We have been exploited without mercy and they are far from finished with their Scotland region.
Man with big gob twatting scheeeeeeeeite all over tinternet.Not enough face palms to cover the sheer stupidity of Bliar.Cretin of a man.Next.
yes, MAY i think 2016 @ the earliest.
the suadi’s are confident this is a blip.
but even that said, as a green in tendency it’s no bad thing that the oil stays put.
oil was only ever seen as a bonus, we can still run our economy with it and the wind et al energy scotland generates.
in fact the UKOKWM, is more dependent on it’s revenues than scotland.
bp reckons @ clair extraction costs are now very low @ $3/BoE.
demand is low atm opec refuse to pump less, why?
link to bloomberg.com
there are just so many factors in commodity pricing, supply and demand.
People have short memories it seems.
The price of Brent crude fell from a high of $143.68 on 11th Jul 2008 down to $33.73 on 26th Dec 2008.
It took a bit of time but by Feb 2011 it was back over $100 and averaged in excess of that for over 3 years until the recent fall.
link to eia.gov
No one has a clue what the price will be next week never mind in 2016.
Did anyone else hear Danny Alexander on Radio Scotland this morning talking about what a great future North Sea oil has and that there is a wealth of oil in UK`s continental shelf.
Great summary of all the key points.
The oil sector (and Scottish Government) should be getting a guarantee of no job losses from Westminster. An urgent review of coporation tax for the sector should be a minimal starting point.
As Norway negotiates with Sweden to bring an end to their doomed independence, other countries that have zero oil reserves will be wondering how they ever attained independence.
Since voting for the first time in 1974 I have always supported the idea of Scottish independence. Always voted SNP even in times when it was considered a wasted vote. If there had been no oil I would still have voted SNP. There are many reasons for believing in, and hoping for, independence.
One of these is moral. Rather than talk about how much oil we have in hand, I prefer to consider how much blood we have on our hand, still tied, as we are, to this Union. Another reason is knowing that I’d rather live modestly and humbly and without pretention in a society that is not predicated upon a great divide between a self-perpetuating caste of rich elite and the large majority who have to struggle to make ends meet.
This is not a rallying cry for some communist cause, just the belief that an Indy Scotland would be a much more humane place to live than what is currently on offer. Oil or no oil.
On the price of oil, if the price of a barrel has fallen by 40%, and I was paying £1.30 per Litre, shouldn’t we new be paying,
78 pence per Litre at the pumps?
I am currently paying £1.15, around 11% less.
In my world, the petrol companies seem to have retained an extra 37 pence per Litre for their profit margins?
No wonder they are worried?
For readers of my generation, there are 4.55 Litres in
a Gallon, so these oil corporations are making an extra £1.67 profit for every gallon of petrol you now buy at their pumps.
At one point in my life I used to think that unionists were actually intelligent individuals if slightly misguided in their views. However, as a result of their incoherent mutterings during the referendum and everything since I am now convinced that these so called “intelligentsia” are in fact just plain thick as two extremely short planks! 😛
Even the most dim witted, brainless and clueless individual can clearly see and UNDERSTAND that the current price of oil is NOT a problem for Alex Salmond or the Scottish government nor would it have been until AFTER Scottish independence in 2016! Even then as Alex Salmond said during the referendum campaign until he was blue in the face the oil revenues for an independent Scotland were NOT central to the S.N.P.’s financial calculations they were a BONUS!
Now I know I’m only the village idiot around these parts but even I can figure out that when someone says something is a bonus then it is NOT central to any calculations but is in fact an EXTRA benefit. 😉
Yea the oil price is an easy play right now for the no/unionist.
Am sure bbc with do a piece explaining in detail how the unions voice of glee is wrong.
So the pooling and sharing Will kick in to help those facing job losses
Just read the Andy Murray comment above.
The BBC amazed me by switching to a camera at Henman Hill where
Andy Murray’s supporters where, when he became the first British man in 75 years to win Wimbledon.
We are going to name this hillside mound Henman Hill after the 2nd
Best British Tennis player in the last 3 generations, who never won anything major in his entire career, as opposed to the Best Player who has won multiple Major Tiles as well as wimbledon?
Could it be because he is Scottish and dared to express his democratic right in declaring his support for his country, Scotland?
The major success of the unionists has been shaping the argument for self-determination into a story of pounds and pence.
The point is tho Lesley-Anne most people are thick and spoon feed there facts from the BBC or STV so they don’t know any better.
It’s been a very well orginised system –
1. Put fear into the public to lock there doors and not to go outside and speak to others.
2. Now we have them stuck in front of this box called TV tell them exactly what we want them to believe as the truth.
I have to say folks we need to reach out and get out to convince the no’ers.
It’s great we all sit in this bubble online and agree with most of what each other say but my experiance of the refurendum was that a lot of people who voted no were misinformed.
i.e – oaps. Labour knew exactly who to target during the refurendum. They actually did us a favour and exposed there hand and showed us how they go about there election voting canvassing technics. Let’s learn from the masters of social manipulation and use it against them.
Bella give the floor to vote NO and get an affirmation of your humanity. Scotland running Scotland excludes England, presumably, but this is his BetterTogether unionist rationale on its not oor oil so its not a terrible burden then, like what Norway shared with it’s giant neighbour who spent it all “relieving” poverty, like what England did. The more this share the Scotland region with the UKOK farce goes on, the more likely its going to end.
So on us seps,
“This plays out into the moral and practical arguments that the SNP put forward. One central argument for example was that ‘it’s Scotland’s oil’ and that North Sea oil revenues should not be spent on the people of England, Wales and Northern Ireland, instead being concentrated on us Scots, with the point made that if we had that undiluted oil wealth then we could reduce poverty in Scotland. But the corollary of this argument is that in achieving this you have to be willing to see poverty increase in the rUK. In the current austere economic climate (oil price aside) Scotland hoarding those revenues would make the rUK fiscal position worse overnight, potentially forcing the government there to cut spending further or increase taxes, pushing people on the margin into poverty. It makes me wonder how many families in England, Wales and Northern Ireland Scottish nationalists would be happy to see pushed into poverty to achieve separation.
Bloody nationalists.
This is just a single example, but the point is that nationalism in the context of a liberal democracy is ultimately selfish. And I for one don’t mind the fact that oil wealth helps to educate a child in Liverpool, or helps pay for someone’s medical care in London. The who subsidises who argument was therefore irrelevant for me. As long as we have a reasonably healthy democracy (and I know some think we have a banana republic, but we plainly don’t – we’ve just had a ‘festival of democracy’), then we should just be thinking in terms of ‘people first’, not ‘Scots first’.
link to bellacaledonia.org.uk
A relative of mine is currently overseeing the transit of a humungous new BP rig from South Korea to W of Shetland.
No wonder even right wing Woodie ( ex Aberdeen school colleague ) is saying everyone’s over-reacting.
Worth reminding Ms Dugdale, next time she mentions oil, that in the 70s Gavin McCrone strongly recommended to Labour PM Callaghan that an oil fund be set up.
Callaghan rejected that.
surely the tax is based on profits made over the course of a year. The tax accrued to the Scottish or UK Government will be felt down the line so the issues affecting the price now would have a knock-on affect.
We can’t pretend poor tax revenues from this year were down to Oil platform shutdown months in the past one minute and claim the problems we see now wouldn’t have an effect on returns in the future the next.
As pro-Yes as the next person but we would be negotiating now in a weaker position than we might have expected if we had voted Yes. Bad things happen though, it would have been up to us to solve it.
@Lesley-Anne.
They aren’t thick, they’re British.
Kevin Evans says:
The point is tho Lesley-Anne most people are thick and spoon feed there facts from the BBC or STV so they don’t know any better.
Thanks for pointing that out Kevin I knew there had to be a flaw in my post somewhere I just couldn’t figure it out! Oh the joys of being the village idiot. 😛
Brendan says:
Did anyone else hear Danny Alexander on Radio Scotland this morning talking about what a great future North Sea oil has and that there is a wealth of oil in UK`s continental shelf.
I think the correct response to your post Brendan goes something like this:
Left hand let me introduce you to Right hand. Right this Left hand he is in the same line of work as you perhaps you two should get together some time and work out a few common goals!” 😀
Just had to post my comment on this thread. Rev so right Labour are a bunch of chancers
Just a thought. Perhaps it’s a good thing the oil market has taken a wee downturn bringing with it a need for the population of Aberdeen and the North East of Scotland to tighten their belts for some months.
The experience will also provide reminder that they voted strongly to remain with Westminster and that all income deriving from the extraction of oil etc is automatically transferred to the coffers of George Osbourne and the Westminster Treasury.
Labour politicians in support of Aberdeen and the North East of Scotland, performing to type are attacking the SNP government, accusing them of doing nothing to ease the financial difficulties of the Region.
Pure twaddle. The Westminster government and only that place can ease the taxation burden on the industry and in consequence save jobs. The problem for the Labour party is that the MP’s they sent down to London from Scotland are focused only on their own furtures and in any event they are, “farting against thunder” insofar as seeking to exercise any sort of influence with the Tory party government.
Meantime the rest of Scotland are benefiting greatly, just at the right time of the year from the oil revenue downturn. Cheaper prices for food, petrol rent, rates and much more.
Don’t worry Grampian I expect things will improve when the oil glut is used up, probably around August 2015.
Meantime learn your lesson. Vote SNP next year so that the MP’s you send to Westminster will be there arguing your corner unhindered by the direction and and control of UK party leaders whose interest rests in places other than Aberdeen
I share the frustration in the previous comments, and would add that what these Unionists fail to say is what action is being taken by the UK government to deal with the problem. The answer is no action is being taken or even considered. But hey a spot of SNP bashing is always good fun for them.
Dudgale(not a typo) was havering at FMQ’s yesterday about Nicola failing to see this coming.As far as I can see, no-one not even that world renowned expert, super fracker Sir Ian Wood, could predict the geo political forces would cause this latest crisis.
So,Dudgale 10/10 for political incompetence,go kez go!
Juteman says:
19 December, 2014 at 3:05 pm
@Lesley-Anne.
They aren’t thick, they’re British.
Yep, for some at least. It’s a choice, a stubborn refusal to even try to understand, rather than an intellectual failure to do so.
Nasty Mr BritNat, he says:
“I’m not listening!”
I prefer the price of oil to be low as possible…. until Scottish independence. We gain nothing from our own oil at the moment, so who cares…. let the price be as low as possible… might mean they extract slightly less and leave us more for when indy comes….
Norway must be hurting right now! Oh, wait…. Norway has an oil fund… In the Scottish parliament, Salmond quoted how much they are making each day from it… something like $100 million?!?
It’s “punching the air in delight” all over again. How can anyone wish hard times on their own people? They are beyond the pale.
thedogphilosopher @ 2.33pm
Spot on.
The Treasury must accept significantly lower taxes from the North Sea in future to create jobs and boost investment, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has said.
This from the idiot who boasted about the grab from the oil companies a few years back and increased the Tax rate from 20% to 32%,me thinks he will be looking for a safe Tory seat in England soon as I don’t think the people from Inverness want him as a MP again.
Rob: It’s “punching the air in delight” all over again.
Now, that’s triumphalism.
‘A Christmas Cracker’ – Grouse Beater on WordPress
Seen on reddit Scotland today:
“Aberdeen is fucking heaven this morning. People are laughing in the streets. Shops have orderly queues outside. People are sharing butteries with strangers. John the Fisherman was seen buying an oil rig saying “oil4life bitches!”. Even seagulls are smiling as they snatch scotch eggs from people hands.
Energy surplus now. I’ll try to keep reporting, but ACC are dishing out milk and honey for people to bathe in.
Live long and prosper, folks.”
Juteman says:
@Lesley-Anne.
They aren’t thick, they’re British.
Damned furriners! They get everywhere and cause untold chaos and mayhem to independent thinking people of the world. 😛
Luigi says:
Nasty Mr BritNat, he says:
“I’m not listening!”
Oh aye that’s right Luigi. They stand around with their fingers stuck in their ears singing La La La La La. 😀
@Robert Kerr
Austerity 🙂
[…] Oilmageddon […]
I would like to say that the north sea oil fund oh sorry we don’t have one,OK well the oil money is to be shared between 65 million and its not so much,but between 5 million its a lot,and these big broad shoulders should carry all these wee problems easily.
With the oil price falling, tax receipts dwindling and the banks with years of losses still to offset against tax, the diarrhoea tide in the Treasury should be up to the windaes by now.
Still let’s bash the nats who are to blame for none of that!
The oil is running out soon anyway. It must be true because BetterTogether said it would all be gone in a decade and then Scotland would be completely fcuked.
Sir Ian Wood says oil running out soon link to telegraph.co.uk
Its a tory boy world so they’ll be fine. Sir Ian Wood also told school kids to get a lifetime career going as its great in the dry Scots oil patch but only if you’re planning to drop dead in 15 years, say 32 if you’re lucky, the filthy rich lying old clown in his honest and noble BBC in Scotland
link to bbc.co.uk
Speaking at a ceremony on Thursday evening, he said: “I’ve really enjoyed my time in the oil and gas industry – the challenging, high tech and entrepreneurial environment, constantly changing, run by risk orientated people with generally good judgement and very high quality management skills.
“My headline message for the youth of today – get involved. The North Sea oil industry will see you through your lifetime.
O/T A Libdem sees the light:
link to snp.org
The SNP has welcomed John Ross Scott – the former leader of Scottish Borders Council – who has joined the SNP today.
Mr Scott lives and works in Orkney; previously he was a councillor in the Borders for 23 years, latterly he was a Lib Dem councillor for Hawick on Borders Regional Council and Scottish Borders Council where he was Council Leader
Good news for island campaign.
Email from Yes Scotland…
Dear Croomp,
It’s almost impossible to summarise the last 12 months. The highs of playing a part in a campaign that energised and inspired a nation. The lows of that Friday morning when the results came through.
Mind you that was quickly followed by the most amazing show of determination and strength of purpose as thousands upon thousands of people joined the three pro-Yes political parties.
This chapter of the campaign for independence is over. But the work continues and I don’t want you to miss out on the chance to stay involved. That’s why I’m writing to encourage you to pass your details on to one of the many groups which were involved in Yes.
SNP membership is more than 94,000 and still growing. The Party is mid-way through selecting Westminster candidates and will be launching groundbreaking initiatives in the New Year to ensure that members get every chance to contribute their time and ideas to the campaign. Join the SNP.
The Scottish Greens have seen their membership grow by more than 500% and are also selecting candidates for what will be their biggest Westminster campaign yet. The party now has branches across the whole of Scotland, campaigning on issues such as fracking, TTIP and the Living Wage. Join the Scottish Green Party.
The SSP has also seen an increase in membership and a continued interest in campaigning. Join the SSP.
Of course we can’t forget our friends at National Collective, Women for Independence, Business for Scotland, Radicial Independence Campaign and Generation Yes.
This will be the last e-mail from Yes Scotland and I want to thank you for everything you have done. I have one final ask. Don’t lose touch with the broader campaign. Make your final action of this year joining the SNP, Scottish Greens, SSP or one of the many non-party campaign groups in the movement.
Let’s keep the spirit and the positivity of the Yes campaign alive.
Blair Jenkins
Yes Scotland
*Still no mention of Wings or WBB eh Blair!
Let’s not forget that the lower the oil price goes the cheaper it will be to nationalise the oil industry when we gain independence. Then when the price of oil goes up again as it surely will we can have an even bigger oil fund. Just like the Norwegians.
I near pished myself. 🙂
Aberdeen is fucking chaos this morning. People crying in the streets. Shops have been ransacked. People stockpiling butteries. Ian Wood was seen buying a trawler saying “fuck this, i’ll be a fisherman instead”. I’ve even seen seagulls packing their suitcases and boarding buses to dundee.
Brown-outs now. I’ll try to keep reporting, but ACC are already talking about removing the telephone poles to use for firewood.
Stay safe, folks.
link to reddit.com
The things affected by lower oil prices are the marginal yelds on the oil produced. Some fields would not be able to produce oil profitably, so they could be taken out of production. But the oil will still be there. It will be there next year or next decade or whenever it is worthwhile to extract. A prolonged low price may affect investment decisions, but oil is a finite resource. At some point in the future it will be worth more than it is today.
Might the answer to the schadenfreuders be to demand we keep production exclusively for Scottish use and not export it at all?
The petrol price is overwhelmingly tax. The looming election is the ONLY reason Gideon hasn’t put on his green wig and jacked the tax up – cos he needs the revenues one way or another. I reckon you can guarantee that – for green reasons only they will lie – whoever is chancellor next May will bang up that tax.
The present price situation is caused by oversupply and by a game being played by some powerful countries of economic warfare. Several less popular regimes are oil exporters. Russia, Iran, Venezuela, ISIS Syria. A low price cripples them all. Then theres the fracking revolution – which is not every Arab’s idea of a great thing – or many Scots.
I did not vote for indy because I wanted to be a sheik. My country is worth more than mere money to me. Is there panic in Oslo today incidentally?
Apparently the oil price is so low because the Saudis are trying to destroy fracking companies. So not only do the Saudis export mentalist Islamic fundamentalists, they also are temporarily at least aiding unionists like the debonair Blair McDougall! 😀 😀
“Oil is too valuable to burn” was a frequent statement of my late Dad, Aberdeen graduate and head of a fuels and lubricants lab elsewhere. It is for the long-term benefit of Scotland that its oil not be flared off by a spendthrift bunch of speculators wanting to finance their opulent lifestyles.
Having oil safe in the ground is the next best thing to a sovreign wealth fund – it is a sovreign wealth depot. All this hydrocarbon can be a base material for Scottish re-industrialization – the prices may be down now but the stuff is still scarcer than it was and is a finite resource. The price will inevitably rise at some point.
The most useful thing for Scotland regarding oil is to keep it in the ground until it is time for it to benefit the people of Scotland.
I agree that Iain Martin is an imbecile! But he is surely an arsehole too? It is OK to say ‘arsehole’ isn’t it?
Labour Scotland Branch Office leadership vote.
Three Unions have released percentage of members’ votes.:–
ASLEF:——-21%
Community—-12%
Unite——–10.2%
The Labour Party Leadership contest with very small turnout from the Unions
link to paulhutcheon.blogspot.co.uk
its a pity bliar macdougal is so insignificant that history wont record what type of a man he was.
Frazer Allan (above) said exactly what I have been saying to my family. The oil left under the seabed will be very useful when the country is independent,and the fluctuating price much higher again. Especially when Mr Wood and his fellow frackers have exhausted onshore shale deposits!
Mc Dougalls project fear was because they were frightened of losing… Negativity all the way.
I can only surmise that making hay from job losses stems from the morbid fear the demolition of North Britain Labour in the fortcoming general election. An absolutely despicable man.
As for the Telegraph, I refuse to read this irrelevant rag now unless I feel like a laugh. It’s just a media extension of John Redwood acting like a six year old, stamping his feet shouting ‘England expects’.
Well it does seem absolutely clear that all the headlines about the oil are in fact to keep the No voters on board (read keep ‘the union together’). It doesn’t matter how rational, intelligent and factual the analysis is revealing that the current situation has absolutely nothing to do with the SNP or the proposals from the Yes side, regarding our economy in the event of a Yes.
There is only one rational explanation for all of this…they are terrified about the GE15. And this is part of the drip drip strategy to maintain the illusion that we are ‘better together’. Of course the glaringly obvious stark reality is that it confirms the total opposite; because apparently this scenario was never possible if we voted No because the ‘pooling and sharing’ would kick in and the ‘broad shoulders’ would carry us through.
Who knew the Scottish government where so powerful that they could cause the oil price to collapse?
Again I can only ask; Did we win the referendum?
Above link [Jack Murphy 4:19pm] to paulhutcheon has been removed.
Replaced with this:-
“However, affiliated trade unions are starting to release their turnouts: Community’s figure was 12%; 21% of ASLEF members voted; and the Unite number was a paltry 10.2%.
So, half an hour ago, I emailed Scottish Labour’s spokesman:
“Can you tell me the % turnout for the members’ section?”
His reply: “No.”
Remember this when Labour demands transparency from others.”
I am quite happy that the oil price is low.
The loss of revenue will affect the British Treasury, not an independent Scottish Treasury.
Production will be reduced, leaving more available to benefit the independent Scottish economy when we gain our freedom.
It gives Gideon an even bigger problem balancing his books.
There will hopefully be not enough money in Westminster’s coffers to replace Trident.
Labour will always be about political point scoring before service of the people. Good read. My tuppence worth over here:
link to scottishstatesman.com
The oil price saga we are having proves that Westminster has no international clout whatsoever. None. This is happening under the Union.
Excellent stuff. I’ve been fronting up to the idiots on Twitter all week (and the BRITNATS really are thick economically illiterate idiots).
Now let’s see if the National has the gumption to follow up your story. Or ven produce its own analysis.
Can somebody dig up what oil price Osbourne was basing his projections on at the last budget ? It would seem to me that it was he and WM that “missed the crash” and its THEM that’s going to be affected- not scot gov.
I sometimes despair at the politicians on the YES side – Nicola Sturgeon should have been ramming down deputy dawgdales throat about WM changes / robbery to the oil tax a few years back and the damage it did and also that it is a fully devolved matter and that precisely was why we were fighting for independence – to get control of our own resource. She should also have as a piste’d’resistance pointed out to deputy dawg that lower oil price = lower uk tax take = more UK austerity and cuts to ordinary folk to bring down the deficit and that Ed Balls has fully signed up to the UK Tory austerity agenda.
Our side have to up their game in rebuking this oil nonsense.
Effijy says:
19 December, 2014 at 2:35 pm
Your maths is way off.
At the moment we are getting ~ $60/bbl and there is 159 litres in a barrel. The other variable is £/$ exchange rate.
At the moment Oil companies are making ~ 37cents a litre or around 25pence a litre. From that 25 pence they have to pay the wages / transportation shipping / helicopters etc – known as OPEX. The lifting cost of many mature fields is $80 to $100 dollars per barrel lifted. At present nearly all companies are losing money.
The cost of your petrol in the forecourt has neglible contribution from the Oil companies. It is taxation,VAT etc
The industry is being crippled by the UK government maintaing a taxation level that should be weighted to balance lifting cost/oil price balance.
The Government would love for the Oil companies to be blamed for petrol prices as you suggest.
I suspect they will enjoy the negative publicity of the Oil Industry slump as a hammer for the Scottish / Independence cause.
The Oil companies are losing money and can only continue to operate if
a) Oil price recovers
b) Taxation is adjusted by the UK Government.
Some sites in the Middle East and Africa can operate with a lifting cost of several dollars per barrel. If the industry is to survive and enable political independence it must be supported.
Do not think it is a bunch of JR’s in stetsons.
Oil price is being artificially lowered for geopolitical reasons.
link to countercurrents.org
Cochrane, Crichton and their ilk may be crass propagandists in obsequious service of their masters yet in spite of spite their craven servility, the greatest perversity is their capacity to sustain a preening egoism. It is quite possible Cochrane believes this ludicrous story even if he himself simply invented out of thin air because for him it SHOULD be true. Like some purblind religious zealot, he can justify any distortion, any exaggeration, any outright lie as being in service of a ‘deeper truth’.
When your stock in trade is bullshit, survival depends on how well you become inured to the reek of your own excrement.
Clootie
The cost per barrel at $60 translates into a cost per litre of US$0.37 per litre or £STG 0.25; OK, i understand that.
However the transformation cost from crude to refine car grade petrol is what?
By your post, I can see why it is a very complicated calculation on profitability per BBL.
Anybody can help me out please as, the raw barrel can be fractionated into constituent fractions which may, or may not, be more valuable per unit?
Interesting to look at it, as an exercise for mid-week, when I am sober.
The only thing that westminster will be worried about is their gravy train income from our resources, which they have taken for granted, at great cost to Scotland.
Where are the articles in the msm about what the westminster lot are going to do about it and how are they going to help the people who may lose their jobs? The imbicilic attacks aimed at the SNP are a great distraction for them, but do the westminster lot have a plan B? Thought not, idiots running a ship with no engine and definitely ripped to shreds sails, sickening.
How much has the UK borrowed since the Tories came to power? About £120bn a year on average? What’s Scotland’s population share of this? About £10bn a year.
£10bn a year! This is the amount of debt that Scotland ihas been given each year as a reward for being in the Union. We pay billions a year to service this debt.
It is more than Scotland would have to borrow if independent and we had NO oil. Why do people like Blair McDougall try to tell us that this is better for Scotland when it clearly isn’t?
The silver lining on the oil price crash, is that it should leave more oil in the ground for when Scotland is independent and when oil price has gone back up, as it must.
The new fishing quotas from the EU will ameliorate some of the interim loss in revenue in the NE.
Not one for betting but…
What are the chances of the UK govt being behind the price drop?
Try this scenario;
Small country with muchos resources attached to bigger country with very few resources wants to break free and go it alone.
Bigger country say NO!
…but bigger country likee gamble.
Says to smaller country “want free? Vote! 3 years”
Small country accepts.
Meanwhile bigger country starts pumping as much resources from it’s neighbour until it’s storage tanks are bursting at their rivvets.
In the end smaller country does not break free but bigger country has problem.
Huge surpluses of resources which are difficult to shift. Sending to market 9nly serves to drive the prices down.
Anyone know how much “actual” oil was pumped over the past 3 years, and any idea of the quantities required to trigger said scenario?
Possible? Y/N mibbee?
This shows the real power of wings. Let us CELEBRATE and make it clear to everyone in Scotland that, until independence, we think keeping Scotland’s oil in the ground is a GOOD thing. Let’s tell them too that we are watching with interest to see just exactly how the the broad shoulders of team GB support those in the oil industry. We must stop responding submissively to the evil propaganda put out by Scotland’s enemies. Tell the people too that they need to go on the net to find the truth and not to bother raising issues with us if they are not prepared to look beyond British lies and spin.
An excellent piece of slicing and dicing. Unionist claims in pieces.
Oil prices go in cycles – let them crow then watch them splutter into silence
They really are a shower of utter bastards.
Is Ian Martin not one of the legion of ex-editors of The Scotsman that towering champion of Independence?
Changes in the Price of Oil.
Oil forms only a small percentage of our resources in Scotland and we have many other assets which will generate wealth for our people. It is not the most important part of our vision for the future.
Oil prices have dropped since the summer and some No voters have suggested that this would have made us worse off in an Independent Scotland. However, the hypothetical figures below demonstrate that this is clearly NOT the case. If the price is still low in 2016/17 then the following argument will still apply:
Oil price (summer 2014) 100 dollars per barrel (average)
Oil price (December 2014) 60 dollars per barrel (average)
Scotland UK
Current % revenue 10% 90%
In the Union. Scotland UK
Summer 10 d/b 90 d/b
December 6 d/b 54 d/b
With Independence:
% Revenue 100% 0%
Price 60 d/b 0 d/b
With Independence, Scotland would be getting the full price (60 d/b) with a price drop.. Staying in the Union and including any drop, Scotland would be getting 6 d/b. In other words, an Independent Scotland would be getting (at these prices):
6 times the price that it got last summer OR
10 times the price it is getting just now OR
6 dollars per barrel more than even the rUK gets just now
Clearly, Independence would have been better.
Thus, it is clear that these arguments from the No camp are erroneous and designed to promote fear, as is their custom. Word from the Middle East is that the Oil prices will rise to former levels again, since prices fluctuate regularly.
Makes you wonder why the establishment, (and their propaganda spouting media section), are so keen to stop we Scots from leaving their ever so safe and solid Union when we Scots are such a terrible burden upon our wonderfully open-handed, generous loving English cousins. After all we are such an ungrateful, complaining and grasping nation of drunks, substance abusers, beggars, obese workshy subsidy junkies who don’t even know how to eat a proper diet … or have I got that all wrong?
I mean they have a point – what with all those absolutely authentic government statistics to back their so well made and absolutely correct arguments.
Aye!
Richt!
Excellent article Rev, I’m sick to the back teeth of listening to unionist propaganda regarding the collapse of oil prices and how Scotland would have been on its arse it we had voted yes.
If we thought we had a battle on our hands in the lead up to the referendum then I am not sure how to describe what I fear is coming our way in the run up to the GE2015. I applaud Nicola Sturgeon for trying to change the face of political debate but we are dealing with spiteful, jealous, vengeful weans who are just not ready to be grown up. Time to start fighting back.
Unionists have form when it comes to gloating over job losses. Many of them thought it was marvellous when our steelworks, shipyards and coal mines closed and left whole communities bereft.
I was also fully expecting the UK government to have begun negotiations with the Norwegians by now to transfer our oilfields over to them as it’s such a dreadful burden on the country.
@Effijy says: 19 December, 2014 at 2:35 pm:
” … if the price of a barrel has fallen by 40%, and I was paying £1.30 per Litre, shouldn’t we new be paying,
78 pence per Litre at the pumps? … “
Well no, Effijy, the reason being that the actual cost of the fuel you buy is small as are the profits on it to the oil companies. The Road Fuel duty and the VAT you pay at the pump is the larger portion and the Establishment still demands its much bigger whack from you the customer.
The individuals pedalling this nonsense are not naive. They know exactly what they are saying is wrong. The mis-representation of the facts will be fed to the uninformed (by MSM). The No voter can then claim satisfaction at having ‘saved us all’.
It is all about discrediting the independence viewpoint and drive support for unionist parties. There will be no let up till the uppity separatists are back in their box.
Project Fear continues…
@Sandra Wilson says: 19 December, 2014 at 7:49 pm:
” … I applaud Nicola Sturgeon for trying to change the face of political debate but we are dealing with spiteful, jealous, vengeful weans who are just not ready to be grown up. Time to start fighting back.”
Perhaps so, Sandra, but I read it a little differently. Think of Nicola’s tactics as that of a small, well armed and dug in force of defenders under attack by a much larger force charging over open ground.
The text book tactic is to hold fire until you can see the whites of their eyes. Then hit them with everything you have. They are then bunched up and easy targets as your firepower is maximised. Not only that but the second rankers crash into the vanguard and chaos results.
Perhaps Wee Nicola is just holding her fire until she sees the whites of their eyes.
It will create a loss of 1,500 Oil jobs in the North East,which will be totally absorbed because of SNP Gov forward planning in fishing (new agreement negotiated by Richard Lockhead) , construction, tourism and Health sector. Unemployment will not go up.
The higher number of job loses (not proportion) will be in the supply chain south of the border. (expected 13,500) Osbourne shit in his own nest. The real reason the Oil revenues have fallen £4Billion+ a year since 2011 is Alexander and Osbourne increased Oil taxes 11% (£2Billion) a year. The Oil industry cut new exploration. Losing £4Billion+ a year. Other related taxes are still £Billions. If the increase in Oil tax was cut , there would be no job losses or loss of revenues. With little different to the previously overall taxes raised in Scotland. The effect can be mitigated from the benefit to the economy of the lower Oil prices, creating lower prices of good and services. The well perform economy in Scotland doesn’t depend on the Oil sector. It was a bonus that Scotland did not get. It went to the UK Exchequer who wasted it.
Unemployment rate 5.5% and falling. Other sector invested in by the SNP Gov in Renewables, Construction, tourism, fishing, medical etc are producing more revenues. Replacing the falling Oil revenues just as Alex Salmond predicted Oil was just a bonus. Even without Oil the Scottish economy is out performing and is performing well. Scotland has to get control of spending in Scotland to make further improvement. Cut Trident/illegal wars and put a tax on ‘loss leading’ , which would save £3Billion. More than the lost Oil revenues.
MacDougall is no Economist. What would be expect from an individual who would cheat and lie to destroy his own Political Party.
The sainted union will prevent poor, stupid Scots from experiencing this calumny. Or not. Ordinary people will suffer for the rich to be enriched some more. Even the middle-classes will feel this, the squeeze. Don’t you love red tory Ed Miliband and his neo-lib agenda. A true rightist leader of a party mostly focussed on gaining power at any cost. Labour preend to be “left” in Scotland to secure those comforteble seats of the feeble 50 or 40 or 30 or even 20.. It’s all that’s left to you unless you’re in Scotland and can vote for the SNP to make a real difference.
I wish we could just do a happy ritual dance around us all, but it is not possible.
These grotesque “leaders” are untouchable. Even if they’re on par with Nazi killing officials.
We have a great leader. Nicola Sturgeon is the best thing since sliced bread and lovely to boot.
Don’t you worry, Scotland WILL be independent.
As long as the Jake Molloy’s of this world are getting their voice heard, the oil companies will be challenged on their scaremongering, there is an excellent publication out at the moment called Blowout which is produced by the RMT Offshore Energy branch, well worth a read and can be sourced on the OILC website, meanwhile Labour’s pals Unite are too busy cosying up to “big oil” and signing sweetheart deals!!
There is full employment in the North East, a surplus of jobs. Vacancies in the Oil sector, fishing, construction, tourism, Renewables, caring sector, Health and Education etc. A surplus of rotten lying Unionist politicians and their associates.
A local skipper Tait bought the dearest house in Scotlabd for £3Million a month ago. The Tait fishing family were previously fined £Millions for landing black fish, at various ports.
The Hill at Wimbledon was renamed Murray’s Mount when Andy Murray won and the title remains. BBC Sports Champion of the Year. 17 Million people in Britain watched his championship match. Worldwide total viewers ?
A couple of points here;
Neither the SNP or Alex Salmond EVER predicted the price of oil. What they DID do was make some financial estimates based on a PROPOSED price of oil which was fairly close to what we had, and what was expected.
The oil could drop to a TENTH of its previous price. In iScotland, we would effectively be sharing revenue among a TENTH of the previous population, so would have TEN TIMES the amount to hand.
The oil is and always has been a BONUS, and not the mainstay of the Scottish economy.
If oil revenue is diminishing permanently, then is it not prudent to restrict the benefits to a tenth of the population?
Just watched the papers review on SKY. Jeez! What a pair of incredible ignorant numpties! They were *ahem* discussing the low oil price and guess what folks … it is just as well Scotland did not vote YES in the referendum because we would now be faced with this low oil price! Where the hell do they get these utter morons to do these so called paper reviews. She has absolutely NO IDEA what the referendum was all about nor has she the slightest notion about the after referendum time scale!
Ah! The elusive Mr McDougall has come up from under his rock.
What really galls me about all this gloating is that we are talking about the price oil NOW in December 2014.
Scotland was not due to declare total independance until 2016 at the earliest and I reckon by that time oil prices will probably be back to the norm after America and the Middle East end their tet-a-tet with cheap dirty fracking and expensive conventional oil production and the tensions in Eastern Europe subside.
Apart from innocent oil works and their familiies,innocent families in Russia are also suffering.
Bugger the Panda
A great many of the operating companies have no downstream factor, distribution or sales. They produce crude based on a pipeline or tanker standard (H2S content, water cut etc). That is it and their profit is on the crude sale only.
The orgasmic glee certain no voters exude about low oil price gives me the boak.
It’s almost like the would happily slit their best friends throat and jump on their grave instead of trying understand What is actually going on.
If the oil price rises will we see the reverse stories appear?
I don’t think so.
Sad bunch
I have been trying to find out how the Norwegians are reacting to these unionist scaremongers. So far all I hear from 150 miles across the Nth. Sea is let’s see where we are next month but there again they can afford to sit back and laugh – they’ve got their Sovereign Wealth Fund to fall back on until the price goes back which is the same sure thing as the sun rising tomorrow morning. Do these unionist twats really think that we sailed into Lerwick Harbour on a cabbage leaf???
Auld Rock
Danny Alexander/Unionists are lying through their teeth to try and save their own skin.
Thatcherism is back the Oil Industry has sacrificed for the economy of the rest of the UK.
Danny Alexander is a completely, unprincipled, self interested, total liar who abuses the electorate who elected him.
In 2006, the UK government produced a report that included a section on the revenues from oil and gas found in a sector of the Atlantic, 50 miles to the north west of the the Isle of Lewis. It is available online. See page 41. It is worth a read…
link to gov.uk
“9.9 Because of the uncertainties surrounding future oil and gas prices, in the SEA 6 report we examined the implications of four price scenarios – $20, $30, $40 and $50. Prices have risen substantially since we wrote that report in 2005. Thus in the present context it is probably more realistic to use the range $30 – $60.”
If Ian Wood was sincere in his concerns about Aberdeen, the North East and Scotland and the Scottish economy. He would support the SNP and the YES campaign. Full fiscal autonomy/Independence. He made a vast fortune out if the Oil industry. Unfortunately Aberdern, the North East and Scotland did not. All the Scottish North Sea revenues were taken (secretly) and wasted by Westminster, on illegal wars, tax evasion and London S/E. Ian Wood must realise that. The only people who are trying to rectify that are Alex Salmond and the SNP Gov at Holyrood. Ian Wood if he was sincere should have given them public support. Instead of canvassing against Aberdeen, the NE and the Scottish economy about Oil related affairs in tbe Press and National newspapers, giving false report about the North East/Scottish economy.
Surely now is the time for Ian Wood to enjoy his retirement and stop courting publicity with false report which harm the Scottish economy. Or in other words, shut up with your false doom and gloom. Ian Wood made a vast fortune from Scottish resources, Scotland did not. Stop disrespecting Scotland, the North East and Aberdeen. Your actions and words are part of the problem. Enjoy retirement. No one can predict Oil prices or longitude. Every report has been wrong.
Drilling and Development activity is being cut back in Norway and the Media are being a bit like ours in not bothering to tell the whole story. Example. One of the larger Drilling Companies, COSL, have had one of their Rigs out of work for several weeks now so the Crew are facing being Layed Off. The Media take on the story is that everyone in the Company will take a 10% Pay cut until the Rig goes back to work. What actually happened was that all of the Off-shore Employees will go from working 2 weeks away, 4 weeks at home to working 2 weeks away, 5 weeks at home followed by 2 weeks away, 6 weeks at home. The extra leave being covered by the Crew from the Stacked Rig. This should result in a drop of between 15 and 20% in pay but the Unions refused to accept this. They agreed to a 10% cut as long as more than 90% of Employees accepted it. The vote in the end was 93% for, so something around 300 jobs have been secured. I wonder what the vote would have been UK side?
[…] Political etiquette is a funny thing. Should some of the more vocal supporters of a Yes vote dare to express any degree of satisfaction at a couple of dozen journalists’ jobs being lost on a Unionist newspaper, social media is suddenly aflame with pious, angry lectures about the poor taste of rejoicing in others’ unemployment – regardless of whether it might perhaps have been caused by the paper’s own unethical actions. […]
Ian Wood, the “expert” whose predictions change every time he’s encountered by the British Propaganda Broadcasting Corporation: link to shr.gs
I am reliably informed that Apache who own the Forties and Beryl fields will only lose money if the price of oil drops below$15 a barrel, due to having the lowest costs in the North Sea, yet are still trying to pay workers off, cut pay rates and change shift rota’s, corporate greed at it’s worst!!
More accurate to point out that a falling oil price will deliver a variety of winners and losers:
link to scotsman.com
I know for a fact the Scottish Government were made aware of the coming drop in oil prices on 27th August and provided with an accurate drop target level.
Had we been an independent nation, the country could have acted on the information. But instead the data was simply used to alert the Yes campaign to a coming debate danger.
[…] December, Wings Over Scotland maintained that in the post-independence negotiations the oil price would have been London’s problem and […]
[…] and its supporters. And, crucially, despite what the right-wing commentariat believes finally puts the final nail in the coffin of Scotland’s […]