Levers of power
16 votes, up to a maximum of 31, you say?
If only there was a party with enough MPs to turn that round, eh?
The Prime Minister’s new Brexit deal is a catastrophe for Scotland. It would massively disadvantage the country compared to Northern Ireland. Companies would entirely sensibly flock across the Irish Sea to enjoy the chance to effectively remain in the EU without the upheaval of leaving the UK, taking thousands of jobs with them, and inward investment to Scotland would tank.
Every nation of the UK would basically be getting what it voted for in 2016, except Scotland. Imagine if there was something we could do.
And readers, please spare us the awful arguments against the idea of offering Johnson the SNP’s votes (or, now, even just abstentions) in return for the power to determine our own destiny. We’ve heard them, and they’re all rubbish.
“But you can’t trust him! He’d do the deal then renege on the promise!”
Then why are we currently pursuing a policy that’s entirely dependent on him giving and keeping his word? Presumably that must be a waste of time too.
(And also: if only we had someone in our team who was red-hot at legal stuff and could make sure the deal was watertight.)
“But it would be immoral to abandon England and Wales!”
England and Wales both voted for Brexit, and more importantly poll after poll shows that they still want it to happen despite knowing it’s going to be dreadful.
It’s not Scotland’s job, or our right, to override their will. And we’d still be protecting them from something much worse.
“But we’d lose an indyref that was held after we’d enabled Brexit!”
Why? Who’d vote against it? Of the 50% of Scottish voters who are currently in favour of independence (or more, depending on the specific question you ask), many of them because of Brexit, which ones would suddenly change their mind and oppose it when it was an absolutely stark and explicit choice between independence and Brexit?
For the people who want independence AND to avoid Brexit, the referendum offers them the precise thing they desire. And the people who are strongly against Brexit but only reluctantly in favour of independence: do we REALLY think they’re going to vote against independence, and thereby condemn themselves to Brexit, just out of some kind of abstract cutting-off-your-own-nose spite?
That’s like voting to stay in a burning skyscraper because you’re in a huff that the lifts aren’t working and you won’t walk up a couple of flights of stairs to get to the roof for the escape helicopter.
“Boris Johnson would never agree such a deal in the first place!”
Why wouldn’t he? We know his own voters are (a) absolutely feverishly desperate to get Brexit done, and (b) not bothered about losing Scotland and/or Northern Ireland to do it. What does he have to lose? And what do we have to lose by at least finding out?
The ball is rolling across an open goal. Successful politics is about having the courage to make difficult decisions that might attract criticism, in order to uphold your principles and achieve your goals. Nigel Farage doesn’t give a toss what the media says about him as long as he gets the thing he wants.
But the independence movement is currently led by people who won’t just miss the chance of a lifetime, but are too scared to even stab a boot at it in case they get some bad press or damage their own careers.
At least Chris Iwelumo tried his best.
I get the logic of this I’m just somehow horrified at the prospect of the SNP voting for (or abstaining on) a Johnstone deal. I also think that unionist remainers in Scotland (who we might need in an indyref2) would go off the deep end! The press certainly would, I see the headlines now Hypocritical Sturgeon Sells SNP’s Soul”
“The press certainly would, I see the headlines now Hypocritical Sturgeon Sells SNP’s Soul””
Since when did we let our movement be dictated by the views of the press?
Could be a way to get whatever terms we wanted for indy2.
“Give us these terms and we abstain, because it is not our place to go against the democratic will of the English and Welsh electorate”
.
It might fly I suppose?
Then get it signed up legally so tight air cannot escape!
Or even better a Tory cannot worm out of it!
Maybe get MI5 to help swing the vote the other way this time! lol
Trying to get my head around this Irish border solution, and after listening to Barnier it just sounds like, (to me anyway), ‘You know what, we are all sick of this Brexit, just do what you want with the border and we will look the other way.’
Johnson doesn’t need this to go through Parliament as he seems to want it Brexit/No Brexit to be an election issue.
Therefor there is no leverage to gain a section 30 for SNP support. Another issue is that if as you suggest a section 30 was granted then the SNP would have agreed for the terms of of Brexit to apply to Scotland.
link to twitter.com
“So acting unlawfully under the Benn Act and breaching the undertakings his lawyers made to the Court on his behalf.”
The Deal, or no deal, but no delays breaks the Ben Act is being touted as illegal – where does that position things?
Could the SNP even frame it under the EVEL rules if they abstain from something that mainly affects England?
Richard Murphy thinks that the “Deal” is illegal
link to taxresearch.org.uk
You won’t get indyref2 with the current husband & wife team running the SNP show. They have too much to lose.
You’ll get a s30 request, sure. Then a refusal.
Then the court cases which should have been explored years ago.
All of which leads to “five more years” for the SNP….or so they’ve calculated.
The treatment of Chris McEleny was fucking awful – given what he went through getting sacked from his job because he was an SNP councillor.
I have no faith in them anymore.
Surely this is the easiest of all to spin…
“We can’t risk no deal and if we don’t vote for this there will be no deal in 10 days time etc etc”. Scotland will have a choice but first we must save the rest of the UK from No Deal.
At the very least they should offer their votes for the same deal being offered to NI. It lets bojo bypass the DUP and no border on Ireland or the Irish sea. However, I think if he did any sort of deal with the SNP, he’d lose more votes from his own party than he’d get from the SNP, in reality
BoJo will never go for it. England need our gas oil water whisky and food or they are financially ruined. So the SNP would be wasting their time asking.
Yeah, I’d support going for it.
Ultimately, the SNP have pursued a policy since 2016 which recognises that there is an impasse – we voted No in 2014, and then Remain in 2016, and these two are incompatible because (due to English and Welsh desires) it is not possible to have both.
This is the case for indyref 2 in a nutshell. It’s not the only case for independence; it’s just the one that has been pursued at this time.
The English and Welsh populations – despite what recent polls seem to say, we should remember that “Remain” was predicted to win in 2016 – seem unlikely to have changed their minds and we should not be trying to force them to in any case (unless they have a chance to vote for parties offering “Remain” in an election, and take that chance).
We also should not be cheering along any attempt to reverse what they voted for through extra-parliamentary means and/or without reference to the public again (i.e. another “mandated” referendum, which someone has won the right to hold through a General Election) as it establishes all sorts of precedents which could be used against us in a subsequent indyref (and, having used them against England’s much larger population successfully, they are unlikely to be fazed by the thought of doing it to Scotland).
I agree that we are unlikely to ever be able to trust a Tory government, but that’s no argument not to risk doing so now rather than later (they are very likely to win General Election when it comes so….).
The SNP did, of course, have red lines which this deal does not meet. However, reality says that other parts of the UK (England mainly) have the stance on Brexit of “this far and no further”, hence the deal apparently on the table.
How long are the SNP to keep going on about their own red lines before accepting that, because other parts of the UK with more voters and MPs do not want that outcome, we will not be getting what they want within the UK?
At the end of the day, it’s only putting off the inevitable task of saying “it’s irreconcilable; they want this form of Brexit and we don’t think Scotland does so we have to decide whether we accept what they want or not”.
And so, either way, you are back at the original question to be put to Scotland’s people: “we are at an impasse; do we vote No and Brexit with the UK on the terms demanded by its largest country, or do we vote Yes and strike out on our own and work towards closer relations with Europe than the rest of the UK wants?”.
Take whatever means you can of being able to ask this question as quickly as you can, is my view. The prize is never being directly subject to Westminster Tory desires/whims/dishonesty ever again.
Agree almost completely Stu, except I’d only want to see them abstain if the numbers add up. It also makes sense since it’s not voting for or against something that will (hopefully) impact only England and Wales, well the most anyway if the Scottish electorate finally grow a pair and vote for independence.
Meanwhile…
link to web.archive.org
Thank goodness you have no involvement in forming SNP strategy.
I think what you are suggesting absolutely reeks of hypocrisy. Fortunately, those within the SNP that you constantly seek to castigate have a clearer sense of morality than you.
Pressure – making it harder to think straight.
But it could be worse, as in this example :-
“I have no reasons except a deep personal desire for us all to stay together. My mums Welsh, my Dads English, I lived all my life as a kid in Scotland, I have Irish ancestry. I was brought up as a Unionist with an enjoyment of watching England lose at any sporting occasion where they were pitted against Celts. It was always a good natured thing. I deeply love the Union.” (Guardian comments)
One more consideration: it seems to be absolutely fine among Labour supporters, and the media, for Corbyn to say he’d support this deal in exchange for a referendum. Why can’t we do the same, and say all we’re asking for is the same thing as Corbyn?
This is 100% spot on Stuart and if the SNP do not grasp this then please get the new party going
You can only play the cards your dealt or in chess terms, sacrificing your queen to allow your more advanced pieces to win you the game (and even to reclaim your queen).
A bold strategy that no-one saw coming (cough) and a Bon Accord all round, Oui ?.
100% agree. They need to offer their votes to get this deal through and give absolutely everyone, apart from DUP and Scottish Unionists, what they want. It is not just an open goal it could well be our last chance for a long time.
Question is though, would Boris make the deal, and release the referendum?
Tweeted this at mid-day:
‘One for Scottish indy supporters…
Would you support the SNP backing Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement in return for Scottish Parliament getting guaranteed power over timing of Indyref2?’
Currently 346 votes cast
33% Yes
67% No
(With some pretty angry responses giving it ‘how-very-dare-you-even-ask-such-a-thing.)
🙂
PS Forgot to include link…
link to twitter.com
One POSSIBLE flaw…some of the ERG type Tory MPs might reject such a deal…their waffle about ‘our precious union’ might turn out to have some substance to it…So what Boris gained from the SNP he’d lose from the ERG.
Right on cue
“It’s time to get Brexit sorted. If Labour and SNP MPs are against us leaving without a deal, then it’s time to back this one. The country needs to move on. #GetBrexitDone”
link to twitter.com
Exactly! This is a cracking opportunity politically. We have literally nothing to lose by at least asking. Of course it will be leaked, but that’s not really important as the press are staunchly anti indy anyway and it (mercifully) seems not to be affecting the polls much these days. Anyone thinking we need to court the media for favourable press is deluded.
And we better make use of Cherry’s expertise before the fascist TRAs force her out/ scunner her enough she leaves.
Yes, it may harm SNP as a paty long term, but all the members tell us indy is the most important thing to them. If that’s the case, they’d be willing to risk a party hit to gain indy (post indy the SNP would see drop in support anyway so doubt there’s be a provable causal link).
Peoples objections on moral grounds are absolutely understandable. But also stupid. You don’t turn down a penalty at 0-0 in the last minute of the World Cup final because you’re not sure the player tripped your teammate. You try and win the world cup and to hell with the criticism.
If the SNP enable Brexit they lose my vote.
As posted on previous thread.This is now Real Po!itik.
England will have its Brexit one way or another. An extension on!y opens the door to Farage. Then we will have problems aplenty.
Brexit sil! be done. What can we do for Scotland with that knowledge ?
Breaking. SNP not backing deal
Stu, “Since when did we let our movement be dictated by the views of the press?”
We ignore the press but soft unionists in Scotland will lap it up.
No.
For what doth it profiteth the YES Movement if we gain a Section 30, only to lose the votes of those non-SNP voters who moved over from NO to YES because they voted Remain?
Frankly YES would be lucky to break 40% in such an imorally gained Referendum.
[…] Wings Over Scotland Levers of power 16 votes, up to a maximum of 31, you say? If only there was a party with enough MPs to […]
There’s been a study that suggests it was English retirees living in Wales that swung the vote there
link to theguardian.com
There’s also a good chance that business and industry would campaign for Yes if it’s a choice between Josnstons deal and Scotland in the EU..
If say roll the Dice….
The way I see it, the SNP can take a chance at this and maybe gain us indy, or they can be “principled” and keep us locked in the UK and out of EU with nobody in Scotland having a choice.
That’s the material reality, we can stop pretending that BoJo will be overcome with generous spirit of self determination post brexit to gift Scotland another referendum he has absolutely no need (legal or political) to do. And that’s even likely to be a long time POST brexit, when the “this is our lifeboat” argument is dead.
Anyone who actually thinks about the facts, rather than huffing with outrage would see that the choice is stark- try to get indy ASAP or be tied to brexit Britain indefinitely, possibly with a wee dissolution of Holyrood thrown in for good measure.
England is to Scotland what one hundred rusted six-inch nails in a block of wood for three hundred years is – very hard to remove.
Right now the only company with the wherewithal to get the job of removal done, is the SNP, albeit with outside help.
Unpalatable and challenging as this is, nevertheless them’s the facts.
Maybe Stu & the SNP could kiss and make up?
In any event, things are still moving, nothing is settled.
Ps. Supporting the Tories would be intensely problematic for the SNP and the independence movement.
I have said this elsewhere but will say it again. The voters of England may be happy to get rid of Scotland but the moneymen will not let the cash cow go without a (dirty) fight.
Maolbeatha @ 12.07pm
Desperate times call for desperate measures – I like your thinking.
The devil in the detail, however, is, as always – can you trust a Tory?
@Dadsarmy
You quoted Rea! Politik to me on several occasions as justification of actions. Is this not about politics rather than ethics and morals ?
If you *think* asking Boris Johnson for a section 30 is going to result in him giving a section 30 to Scotland. Then why has BJ got everyone against his deal
The SNP are against the deal
The DUP are against the deal
Ulster Unionist Steve Aiken “you know what? We’d be better off remaining.”
Nigel Farage is against the deal.
Strangely the Tories all think that it is a great deal and Labour are probably split.
Why does the SNP have to agree to shaft Scotland?
If Parliament does not pass this deal on Saturday morning will a general election be called?
If an election is called, then the Tories fight on “The Deal or No Deal”
How do you expect England – with the most votes to vote?
5 more years of Tory Government and no effective opposition from Labour. Lib Dem vote is dropping away in polling.
Tories like to use Postal votes – handy for getting the vote out in cold, wet, windy weather.
@manandboy
“Stu and the SNP kiss and make up” implies this is an issue of them having had a falling out. The issue that comes across is the SNP policy on indy is…nothing. Stu is very keen to get things moving in that regard, and has made it clear he is not campaigning in opposition to the SNP.
At present the SNP are the only (viable) indy game in town- fair enough. But they need to remember the goal- Independence. 3 years of trying to save Britain from itself was a waste of time. It has achieved nothing. EU nationals are leaving. Sitting meekly and taking the moral high ground over the coming weeks will afford MPs a smugness, which will help no poor or vulneraple Scots when brexit hits the fan.
Unshakable principles are an individual’s luxury. Politicians act in the interests of the people and will need to do things they’re uncomfortable with at times to achieve the best outcome.
Yes Rev spot on, the SNP could back Johnson’s deal for the granting of a S30 order in return. Afterall they mustn’t lose sight of the main goal which is independence first and foremost.
As much as many in the EU are sick of the Brexit posturing how many are also weary of the SNP hot air about independence?
The petulant cry of ‘wolf’ is becoming tiresome, the electorate could easily become sated with politicians and their temporising bluff and chatter. Be warned!
dadsarmy says:
17 October, 2019 at 12:55 pm
No.
For what doth it profiteth the YES Movement if we gain a Section 30, only to lose the votes of those non-SNP voters who moved over from NO to YES because they voted Remain?
————–
The logic of this isn’t quite right, though. Why would these same committed Remainers abandon Yes in indyref2 if that offered them a route back into the EU?
Most people would accept Stu’s proposal is highly risky. I wouldn’t call it a ball bobbling along the goal-line — more like a shot on goal when everyone expects a cross, a shot that if blocked might lead to a breakaway winner for the other side.
So the demand shouldn’t be for a S30 order. Something this risky would only be worth it if it was exchanged for permanent transfer of all constitutional matters to Holyrood, with broadcasting thrown in too, if possible.
Be interesting to know what the EU would make of such a move.
With the ‘deal’ comes a transition period. I’ve always felt that is the ideal time to hold IndyRef2. We’d be out against our will. We would know that the Tories will now move towards a hard Trade Deal with the EU out of customs union and single market. There would be stability, though. Some people say a ‘no deal’ Brexit with all it’s chaos and hardship would swing folks to YES, however, it also give the BritNat a strong propaganda weapon saying “Indy will be more chaotic”. On balance, IR2 during a transition period is best.
To back this ‘deal’ or abstain, the SNP should (IMO) set the date for IR2 soon and get the campaign up and running. Say for Spring 2020.
If they facilitate this ‘deal’ and bring about Brexit they must not delay nor prevaricate any longer. The MUST move Scotland rapidly to independence. It must be 100% crystal clear that the SNP delivered England and Wales’s choice as a direct trade off for allowing Scotland to make its choice about the future.
Now is the time for the SNP to put Scotland first.
I would hope most YES supporters would take the same pragmatic view and put the chance of independence first. I don’t see this as underhand, nor u-turning, nor selling out … E&W get what they want, Scotland gets the chance to say what it wants. I’m fine with that.
The beating heart of Brexit is money, dressed as politics.
Scotland is awash with money.
Johnson’s ’employer’s’ will not give Scotland up.
The Union trump’s Brexit to the moneymen.
It’s simple arithmetic, albeit using £trillions.
@Galamcenna!ath,
Yes and we would be fighting a referendum platform of being in or out of the EU into the bargain.
@Republicofscotland,
What is your Plan B when BJ inevitably says No!
If SNP do a deal, to abstain or back it, sure they’d get a hard time from the press, so what, that fight needs fought anyway. But we’d have indyref2…..People would soon focus on Yes versus No, and no one can say they never saw it coming.
What we need is Tory leadership now – They need to approach the SNP……and it needs to be known.
Between 1 & 31 votes needed.
Johnson can pretty much rely on 260 votes, he needs 60.
The 60 need to come from ..
– the DUP 10
– hard core Tory Brexiteers, many with follow the DUP line
– the ex Tories
– Labour pro Brexit rebels
– and, maybe the SNP.
If the DUP don’t back it, only the SNP can deliver a win.
God’s sake.
If SNP just doesn’t vote then they are not joining party with an abstention.
We control the wording on the ref 2 paper, we have the right to ask for the EU
to monitor the Ref, we insist this time that the purda isn’t to be broken and if independence
Declared we use the EU with us to fairly divide up All UK assists.
Let the English and Welsh sheep following Bojo and Greesed Moggie over that economic cliff.
Should be lots of English jobs relocating to Scotland too.
I am not entirely clear what this deal is yet. The Labour position seems to be moving towards a referendum to verify any deal. Not sure how you can do that if you vote every deal down though.
The SNP should examine the deal and consider what the alternatives are. No Deal could be worse and give Boris a majority in any upcoming GE.
This is a game of chess and the SNP should not sacrifice key pieces cheaply. Securing an escape route by backing the least worst option may not be ideal but it may make more sense than facilitate crashing out on No deal and helping Boris get his feet well under the table at No 10 and Scotland ends up with absolutely nothing.
Supporting Labour in a No confidence motion is an alternative but it looks like Swinson will back Boris rather than allow Corbyn to lead (and for Labour to grant a S30 because she hates second referendums or something.)
It is a swirling mess of conflicted ambitions and allegiances. Which may suit Cummings, they ditched the DUP in the end.
Johnson never intended there to be any deal. His puppet masters and financiers need a no deal to safeguard their offshore assets, to continue avoiding tax, and to make a financial killing to boot on currency devaluation. He stands to gain personally in terms of position, and I suspect money, from doing their bidding. Johnson would happily have let things drift to a no deal conclusion by the end of October but, because of the Benn Act, he was placed in a bind.
The feverish activity of late has been caused by a change in his strategy necessitated by the Benn Act. He desperately needed to conclude a deal with the EU by today, but one which he knew would not be acceptable to Parliament and so continue to use up time and stave off confrontation with the Benn Act as long as possible. We all know his “super” deal is worse than May’s effort and a disaster for Scotland in particular. Brexit fatigue is becoming a big factor in this but there must be enough MP’s with the spine and decency vote it down. Today’s events are all a game to Johnson, the blame game. He wants to pin the blame on Parliament for scuppering his wonderful agreement with the EU.
I am convinced Johnson wants his deal to fail and will not enter into any pacts with the SNP or others to help it through Parliament. Quite how he plans to string Parliament along till the end of October and avoid the provisions of the Benn Act I have no idea, but I am sure he has a cunning plan for that too. This is a corrupt, mendacious, individual with no principles or morals. He will lie and cheat to achieve what is best for him. I sincerely hope that his future will ultimately lie behind bars but I am not holding my breath.
I think I would want more than just an offer of a referendum to support the Tories. I would want all the promises of 2014 respected , the ability to call any future referendum by Scottish Parliament approval only, and alls these written into law that can only be changed by Scottish Parliament approval. Plus all the power grab legislation rescinded and it made law that it could not be changed without SP approval.
Then I might consider this option, otherwise it is a shite option and has no chance of the SNP going down this route.
Adrian B says:
17 October, 2019 at 1:13 pm
@Republicofscotland,
What is your Plan B when BJ inevitably says No!
See what the SNP are doing currently. We lose almost nothing by asking- if he says no we do as is currently planned, if he says yes we get it legally watertight before the vote.
Scotland voted against Brexit.
“Scotland will not be taken out of the EU against its will” “oh sorry we changed our mind we will now vote for Scotland to be taken out of the EU against the will of the Scottish people” “Trust us.”
“We are now having an independence referendum because we are being taking out of the EU against our will -um um um yes we did vote to leave the EU.” “Yes we did vote for a deal that massively disadvantaged Scotland”
It need not necessarily be sold as supporting the Torys. It could justifiably be sold as understanding the wishes of the English electorate, whilst givng Scotland another opilon.
Optics of how its viewed are important.
Further to what I said at 1:09
If Johnson delivers a withdrawal agreement and an actual exit, he will call a general election. He will win a landslide under those circumstance IMO.
The SNP must have IndyRef2 timetabled and that GE must be fought on the issue of independence. Independence is the antidote to Brexit. The SNP will have just helped to administer a nasty dose of Brexit poison to Scotland along with the rest of the UK. YES supporting must trump Remain supporting in that election.
If the SNP do badly in the GE it will be used against the Indy cause.
You know what is sad is that some people assume that certain prominent remainers who have been crowned the ‘people’s vote’ champions will applaud the SNP for their current support on Brexit….and thus in return openly support Scotland breaking away from THEIR beloved UKOK….which they see as currently being flushed down the pan.
The reality is that post Brexit we , and the SNP, will become once again an irritant and distraction to what THEY want and wanted….our quest to get Independence will be filed away in the bottom drawer of their consciousness…..it will be ffs ” Stop going on about independence”….” This is about what WE want and wanted not YOU”.
Where will we be if Brexit happens ?
Who will help fight our corner and see our perspective as to how unjustly we have been treated ?
Who will care ?
Are we, and the SNP, not dammed if we do and dammed if we don’t.
Where were all of those prominent remainer champions pre 2014 when we were trying to get our independence ? Serving up platitudes ” We love you “…” Don’t go Scotland, stay”
And as to another ‘people’s vote’…has anyone answered the question what happens if Scotland once again votes remain and England votes leave…well I have heard that prominent remainer champions will RESPECT the result which means they will expect us in Scotland to do also…no exceptions…UK wide vote…the SNP will be left holding an empty gun as all of their ammunition will have been used in trying to keep the UK as a whole in the EU….including the support of a second vote on the EU….last chance saloon for remainers.
The SNP are getting swept up into THEIR argument….twas their, the prominent remainer champions, countrymen who instigated ,have been the driving force and who will be the ones who decide all our fates on this Brexit mess….we in Scotland never asked for this but are more than aware it was generated to appease a faction within the Tory party.
I am , like many others, totally sick of this …..that the DUP, Tory party , Farage, UKIP ,right wing journalists aligned with Brexit fanatics and dubious businessmen,sash wearing Unionists in Scotland and all other pro Brexit factions are being given control of our destiny in Scotland…not in my name…EVER….and should also not be in the name of people I elected to represent me at Holyrood and WM.
Incoming anyone ….Lol
“Stu and the SNP kiss and make up” implies this is an issue of them having had a falling out. ”
No, Martin, the implication is that two heads are better than one when going in the same direction. Right now, Stu and the SNP don’t agree on their respective current modus operandi.
@Bob Mack
Scotland voted Remain, now you want the SNP to support leave for the promise of a referendum. Possibly a worse negotiated deal than May’s and Johnson’s combined.
This would end up with the SNP being slaughtered at the next election and they would deserve it. It could make one individual very happy though.
Good grief. ONE GUY comes out with an idea that is the lesser of two evils and its hypocrisy? Okay. Card on table here – Im not a gradualist, but it feels like weve been marched up this bloody hill so long towards “the tipping point” that we’ve not only came to a sodding standstill, but are in danger of sliding right back to the bottom.
With an emboldened Tory administration of ‘national government’, Edinburgh being closed, and/or the shitstorm of a hard brexit, whether we actually slide or not is irrelevant if we become royally stuffed. And thats before we get inundated with the dregs of the UDA coming across here to avoid a united Ireland and voting ‘No’.
Stu – you are to be congratulated for not only warning us of a POSSIBLE problematic scenario but providing a solution, no matter how unpalatable it might seem.
Instead of wasting time with Corbyn and Swinson, the SNP should have been developing a border idea with England, identical to the Ireland solution. We could then have remained in the EU and stayed part of the GB trading union too.
A quick perusal suggests Boris has agreed something worse than what May achieved. I can’t see the SNP voting for it but I guess the next day or two will see either frantic horse trading or Boris sitting smugly waiting for the deadline to pass. If the latter then any request for a S30 is a waste of time and a No Confidence vote and Corbyn are the only route and Swinson can choose to be the midwife that delivers No Deal.
Oh really?
“Boris Johnson and Jean-Claude Juncker have jointly announced agreement on a new Brexit deal despite the refusal of the Democratic Unionist party to give its backing.
After weeks of negotiations that went deep into the early hours of Thursday morning and with mounting pressure to have legal text ready for EU leaders to read before a summit, the two leaders said an agreement was ready.
The prime minister tweeted: “We’ve got a great new deal that takes back control – now parliament should get Brexit done on Saturday so we can move on to other priorities like the cost of living, the NHS, violent crime and our environment.”
@Clapper 57,
No you are in my view total!y correct.
Johnsons deal will fail and an extension sil! go in.
The EU may grant it.
Johnson failed his mission and will have to go.(maybe)
Farage is waiting in the wings with his definite leave policy.
Then he and Tofies will have a majority at the next election.
Farage may even become PM or deputy PM to get Brexit done.
Thats what we face.
@ Martin,
You expecting this deal to actually pass through Parliament when more are against it than were against May’s deal?
If BJ wanted support, then why are the DUP not backing it? Seems odd that only the Tories fully support this. Is this deal supposed to fail on Saturday?
It would do considerable damage to the SNP to back a bad deal for Scotland – because that it will not be forgotten by the press or most of the population. It would be a point that would be exploited in full by all that are against the SNP or Independence.
As a tool against all that the SNP stand for, supporting the effects of a bad Brexit would play well in Scotland for Labour and the Lib Dems. It couldn’t do any damage to the Tories either as they can highlight the lack of morals, say anything to get Independence, Hypocritical SNP….
Labour and Lib Dems could validly exploit the SNP supporting the “reckless damage” or a Tory Brexit.
Don’t expect the press to highlight or interrupt labour, the Lib Dems – even the Greens? at a time when we should be talking up the positives of Scotland having full control of all powers as an Independent Nation, easy quick EFTA membership with an eye to getting back into the EU as a small successful nation.
I can actually see both sides of this debate about whether it is sensible to back the brexit deal – however if they were to do that in exchange for only a section 30, that would be too cheap. I think the PERMANENT transfer of powers over referenda should be demanded as a minimum, and also that as an interim measure Scotland should get the same arrangement as is proposed for NI. Don’t sell your votes too cheaply. Nail the bastards to the floor to get whatever you can for Scotland. Anyone knows that in negotiations you don’t start with your lowest bid.
@Jfngw,
Your position makes no sense. The SNP have promised the people of Scotland a vote on their future. We know that.
We are leaving anyway. Nicola stated that much on TV when she talked of how we would be accepted back into Europe beczuse she has been talking to them.
We lose nothing. England h as chosen its path. So must Scotland
reminds of that shit old joke about the floodwaters rising, the guy sitting on top of his house, turning away aid because “God will save him” …
you slay the beast while it’s wounded … you don’t take it to the fucking vet
– would it not be beautiful, if we were to make the conservative and UNIONIST party -complicit- in Independence for Scotland aka
THE BREAKUP OF THE UNION
– you would also cement the reputation of Boris the Turk as the most stunningly incompetent buffoon to ever get the hot seat
– just get the deal in writing, upfront, a date set and jimmy carter and the lads to do the counting
I still think Johnson’s bosses would disallow it.
“Johnson doesn’t need this to go through Parliament as he seems to want it Brexit/No Brexit to be an election issue.
Therefor there is no leverage to gain a section 30 for SNP support.”
If he’s given the chance to pass a Brexit deal and he rejects it, that damages him electorally in all sorts of ways.
So the WORST-case scenario of this plan is that still doesn’t get us independence, same as not doing it, but it hurts Boris Johnson. I can live with that, how about you?
Looks like no deal (the DUP will not support)
I think he will ask for an extension, call a general election and blame the DUP. Of course he might not call the extension or the EU will not allow one.
Boris to go for GE on the basis of no deal brexit
Assume no deal enacted, borders crash fishermen and farmers feel the pain and the whisky industry starts to pay tariffs around the world. Good background for indy ref2 in my book
The Jocks are really stupid of they think Westminster gives a hoot about them
“Could the SNP even frame it under the EVEL rules if they abstain from something that mainly affects England?”
That would be a totally valid argument, since Scotland was being given its own separate choice.
“BoJo will never go for it. England need our gas oil water whisky and food or they are financially ruined. So the SNP would be wasting their time asking.”
Nothing to lose by offering, then?
“Thank goodness you have no involvement in forming SNP strategy.
I think what you are suggesting absolutely reeks of hypocrisy.”
In what possible way is it hypocritical? The SNP have absolutely consistently said that Scotland should not leave the EU and that the answer is independence. They literally said exactly that today. This plan achieves that.
Boris Johnston would lie and cheat to get what he wants. He will make promises and then renege on them. It’s not fear that prevents the SNP from making a deal with him, it’s bitter experience. There are no cast iron deals with Wetminster. There is only overwhelming force.
What has Boris Johnston got to lose? Millions of barrels of oil over the next 40 years. Wind and wave power. An endless supply of bodies to fill the armed forces and deploy in foreign wars. Somewhere to park Trident. Water. Whisky. Fish. Balance of payments. Someone bound to pay England’s debt.
He will not deliver.
Had Chris Iwelumo scored a goal, the bent referee that is Westminster would have declared him offside.
“I can actually see both sides of this debate about whether it is sensible to back the brexit deal – however if they were to do that in exchange for only a section 30, that would be too cheap. I think the PERMANENT transfer of powers over referenda should be demanded as a minimum”
I agree. That’s how I put it in the recent poll.
“it seems to be absolutely fine among Labour supporters, and the media, for Corbyn to say he’d support this deal in exchange for a referendum. Why can’t we do the same, and say all we’re asking for is the same thing as Corbyn?”
We can.
“Richard Murphy thinks that the “Deal” is illegal”
It may be. Imagine the reaction if Parliament voted it through, after all this time, then Jolyon Maugham got it blocked in the courts. Johnson would win a landslide.
OT
link to dropbox.com
Jo Maugham’s petition to the Court of Session.
“Supporting the Tories would be intensely problematic for the SNP and the independence movement.”
It’s not “supporting the Tories”. It’s supporting democracy.
“It would do considerable damage to the SNP to back a bad deal for Scotland”
They wouldn’t be backing it. They’d be saying “avoid this bad deal by voting for independence”.
Has Johnson got the EU as part of the deal to agree to refuse an extension. If so mega pressure on the MPs on Sat when they vote. It will be deal or no deal with the extension taken off the table.
What Elmac said 1:19pm.
“Tweeted this at mid-day:”
But Twitter polls are meaningless because they’re hugely distorted by your followers. I did a *proper, professional* poll of SNP supporters on the subject barely a week ago and it was massively supported.
Seems like a no brainer to me. England will not thank Scotland for stopping Brexit, that is clear.
Sometimes you have to sup with the devil to get what you need, this seems to be one of those rare times.
Scotland NEEDS OUT OF THE UK whichever way it can. To have a scenario where Scotland comes off by far the worst because of playing nice, is just not an option, it would be stupidity in the extreme.
In 2014, the message I got from friends and family in England, was that Scotland wanted a ‘utopia’
and was selfish and no sympathy was displayed toward Scotland, in fact more contempt and ridicule than anything. I don’t see that being any different now, at all. The people of England would by and large shrug their shoulders at best, when Scotland is ruined due to their Brexit, some would have a right old larf!
Get OUT Scotland, before it really is too late.
Boris would rather be dead in a ditch than do a deal with the SNP
Retired Ruth Davidson is apparently anything but.
Of interest? Not at the moment perhaps.
link to archive.fo
(thetimes.co.uk/-p8znb66wmony)
Blair met Ruth Davidson to question her on risk of Scottish referendum
Kieran Andrews
Frankly it’s a horrific idea, but . .
The alternative seems to be either the deal going through (in which case WM can then turn their attention to putting Scotland back in its box), or it falling then BJ winning a majority in a general election and forcing it through (in which case WM can then turn their attention to putting Scotland back in its box).
In either scenario, the SNP government have lost any leverage to force Westminster to agree to a section 30. Game over.
@ Shug,
Boris would rather remain as PM than be dead in a ditch.
right on the button
@Rev –
‘Twitter polls are meaningless’
I’m not a pollster and don’t claim to be.
Yes, of course they’re ‘meaningless’ but I enjoy doing them and if they help get folk thinking and talking about the question, where’s the harm? If nothing else, they tell me what my followers think about stuff and that’s of interest to me.
Anyway, FWIW (?) currently 816 votes cast, 34% saying Yes, they’d do the deal.
😉
Funny how leaving the EU wasnt so dreadful when it was a possibility for Scotland after a successful indyref last time.
As someone who deals with macro economics on a daily basis – the EU is an economic zombie and a future political nightmare. Its a dying project with inflexible leadership. Sorry.
There will be a lot of people dead… in and outwith ditches…. if Boris remains as PM….irrespective of whether we are IN or OUT of the EU….that’s the real problem….
@Bob Mack
You want the SNP to approve a leave vote then demand a referendum because we are leaving. If I was the PM I would immediately tell you as you did not vote against leaving then you have no reason to request a referendum, you got the result you voted for. Yes, my reasoning makes no sense!
Joe@2.11pm
“Sorry”. No need to say sorry for expressing your view – unless of course you think it is a lot of mince.
This ‘saving England and Wales from themselves’ despite what they voted for has to be among the most arrogant, stupid, hypocritical shit ive come across in my lifetime. Cant wait for Westminster to save Scotland from itself after any successful indy move. FFS.
@ Cubby
Im saying sorry because i recognise that too many in the indy movement have the mental maturity of children and cant handle opposing veiwpoints. As WOS is experiencing. Sorry folks, not being nasty. Just honest. Dont go having any breakdowns
“The way I see it, the SNP can take a chance at this and maybe gain us indy, or they can be “principled” and keep us locked in the UK and out of EU with nobody in Scotland having a choice.”
Precisely.
“You want the SNP to approve a leave vote then demand a referendum because we are leaving. If I was the PM I would immediately tell you as you did not vote against leaving then you have no reason to request a referendum, you got the result you voted for.”
Don’t be stupid. It’s a conditional deal.
Northern Ireland have the democratic right of consent re Johnson’s deal.
Scotland have the undemocratic right to be told to shut up by Westminster and get back in your box and enjoy your gruel.
GET SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE DONE
@jfngw,
Obviously that would be decided before any vote Nil to lose
Joe@2.17pm
“Don’t go having any breakdowns”
I’m fine thanks for caring. Don’t you go being patronising.
Perhaps I misunderstand but any change to the Good Friday agreement needs approval by Stormont which is currently not sitting. In it’s stead the UK Government will decide for it, but without the support of any of the NI parties. The democratic fallout from this will mean unification of Ireland surely?
It’s a conditional deal.
What like the DUP one with the Tories, the one they have now effectively dumped, very amusing.
The ghost of ’79, myth that it was, looms large over this idea.
I’m abstaining, for now.
The idea is democratically sound, but we are dealing with so many people, all with different agendas, that my head is bursting.
I’ll come back later.
British nationalists can never be trusted.
In addition to the Rev’s proposal the EU must sign a memo of understanding that if there is a yes vote Scotland has an open door to Europe.
This would be a tightrope walk, but it might be doable. Maybe.
On the one hand, the strongest argument against it seems to be that it would mean indyref2 taking place against the background of an economic collapse worse than Ireland’s from 2008-12 — this is what Johnson’s deal means — and that the SNP would be held partially responsible for this. The BBC would be literally unwatchable due to presenters climax ing into the camera lenses.
On the other hand, by definition indyref2 would offer the option of escaping this economic nightmare when an indy Scotland rejoins the EU.
Because this plan is so risky, and might be good for Yes but terrible for the SNP, and Johnson would probably reject the offer anyway, it’s unlikely the SNP would even consider it. But more generally, Stu’s instinct is correct that the SNP’s overall relationship to Westminster has to become more nuanced and less predictable.
Labour know they can play their degrading back and forth games over the S30 because the SNP have presented themselves as supplicants who will only ever have dealings with Labour and nobody else. So *some* kind of message that that’s not necessarily the case would be welcome.
Even more generally, it’s time for the SNP to get wise to the fact that in modern politics it’s no longer necessary or desirable to have one consistent message for all voters. Segment your message to different audiences on Facebook and elsewhere on social media. Say one thing to Yessers and if necessary something very different to soft Nos. Have completely different messages for Remainers and Leavers, if necessary. Stop being so honourable, and so predictable — in the current mass media environment this isn’t just bringing a knife to a gunfight, but doing so while the opposition are being supplied with AR 15s by the cops. (And that’s coming from someone who’s otherwise okay with SNP strategy).
I have to defer to this logic as it is clearer and makes more sense than FMs current position. It’s called politics no matter how unpalatable this may be. Press will spout shite either way folks, ( not been paying attention ? ),
Remember the press shite about SNP enabling Thatcher era. AS would have snapped this trap before now.
Ask yourself this truly… How can you lever plan A ?
Answer get your retaliation in first .. When its least expected.
Jean-Claude Juncker on tv suggesting that there would be no extension if the present deal is voted down on Saturday in his view.
Slightly surprised at that. 🙁
Anyways, basically speaking whatever our individual view are, for or against, it is neccessary to put the idea forward, and let’s face it, the SNP can’t unless they actually do it, so someone has to. It wasn’t me!
Of course there is not 35 votes here as tying in an independence referendum with the vote could make the Scots Tories vote against it. It is then only 22 votes, and as I’ve seen the defeat is being predicted as between 1 and 31 then if the SNP vote to leave but the vote is still lost then they are shredded as far as any being a Remain party.
The minimum bargaining position should be an agreed indyref date during Spring 2020 accepted by the Tories.
@ call me dave – yes, JC Junker says there is no need for an extension as they have a deal. BJ and JCJ shake hands for the cameras.
jfngw
!6 votes would do it then. No to yes = 2 votes
@jnfgw,
You actually believe the Scots Tories would vote against Boris.? Game over friend .He practica!!y needs an enema to keep them out his back pocket.
Yesterday a couple of Scottish newspapers reported the Scottish Government had reached an agreement with the UK Government for a third party arbitrator to resolve disputes between Holyrood and Westminster on devolved powers returning from the EU. Details to be released at the end of the year’s.
Under the EU Withdrawal Act 2018, all of the devolved powers the EU has responsibility for, revert to Holyrood control after seven years under a sunset clause.
However, for two years after Brexit changes can be made by agreement.
If no changes are made the right to make changes lapses but the existing set up remains for a further five years.
I also heard that despite the two extensions the UK has requested, the transitional arrangement Theresa May negotiated will still end on the 31st December 2020?
I reckon the UK Government would need six months to negotiate an application to ‘rejoin’ with the EU on behalf of a soon to be independent Scotland.
The announcement of a referendum at the end of 2020 would mean negotiations taking place outside of the transitional arrangement period so to avoid that, there is a probably going to be an extension to transitional arrangement period.
Have the people of the north of Ireland now been given the power to change its future relationship between itself and the EU and the so-called united kingdom?
“What is your Plan B when BJ inevitably says No”
We get assurances first and foremost, if Johnson says no then we’ve lost nothing, however if he says yes that’s a bonus.
Latest Junker says if the deal is rejected there will be no new deal on offer.
Sinn Feinn have the right approach (from BBC Live feed):
“Posted at 14:0614:06
Sinn Fein: Deal is ‘complex’ and ‘least worst option’
Sinn Fein President Mary Lou McDonald says she welcomes the agreement between the EU and the UK government.
She says the deal is “complex and wide-ranging” and “all aspects need to be considered in their entirety”.
But she says: “There is no such thing as a good Brexit.
“Brexit is being foisted on the north of Ireland against the democratic wishes of the people.
“As a party, Sinn Fein has worked to defend Irish interests from the worst impacts of Brexit.
“Any deal can only mitigate the worst effects of Brexit; a least worst option.””
——————-
Also, I don’t think even the Tories want this deal, so voting for it would actually be going against Tory wishes, as backwards as that may sound!!
callmedave says:
17 October, 2019 at 2:33 pm
Jean-Claude Juncker on tv suggesting that there would be no extension if the present deal is voted down on Saturday in his view.
Slightly surprised at that. ?
————-
Suggests the EU would be fine with the plan discussed in this thread. Well, well.
It’s workable with skill and judgement. But it needs dynamic leadership to attempt it and NS is way too conservative for that.
“If he’s given the chance to pass a Brexit deal and he rejects it, that damages him electorally in all sorts of ways.”
I don’t think Boris is going to reject a Brexit Deal – he is proposing it. Parliament is were is could well be voted down and it is expected that only the Tories will back it at this point.
“So the WORST-case scenario of this plan is that still doesn’t get us independence, same as not doing it, but it hurts Boris Johnson. I can live with that, how about you?”
Sorry – how on earth does Johnson get damaged by the SNP voting for/against or abstaining on a 500 page Brexit Deal voted for on Saturday morning.
In all circumstances that I see he comes out as the man that put the deal together. If it fails in Parliament that isn’t his fault.
Do you expect the Deal to pass on Saturday morning?
Call Me Dave @ 2-33pm
My interpretation of JC Junckers response to the extension question is that he does not wish to be seen as pre-empting a HOC vote on the New Deal.
He is perfectly aware of the Benn Act compelling the PM to ask for an extension in such circumstances.
@Unionixt media BDSM club,
EU might feel indebted to Scotland for removing uncertainty as well. He!ps in future negotiations if they happen.
This is the problem mind, the most recent incarnation of it:
link to thenational.scot
The FM has consistently said the May deal is a terrible deal for Scotland, and now that this one is even worse, and a fair few think tanks and chambers of commerce, CBI Scotland I think, have agreed with her.
Vote for it, and the SNP lose all that grudging – and quotable – support.
So it ain’t going to happen, 0% chance.
@mr thms
I also saw your interesting post on the other thread, and these are probably along the lines the FM is looking at in broad principles. An extended transition is what Hughes talked about I think, and I think it would be specific for Scotland while allowing the rUK to escape the EU (apart from any backstops). With a transition in place, you’d think it would be easy just to modify it and extend it for Scotland!
Totally get your logic Stu… heres the However… it would be spun relentlessly by EVERY unionist media and politicians that the SNP was responsible for the entire brexit mess!!
It would be like 1979 on steroids! it could be that the open goal we could be putting the ball into is our own…!
totally agree that our leadership is far too timid and are trying to please the wrong people who will ultimately stab us in the back whenever they can.
I worry that doing this would lead to charges of –
‘cant trust the SNP who claimed to oppose brexit but now caused it by supporting Boris anmd the hard line tories’ etc..
Boris johnston types will come and go as with all unionists… but we must be very careful at not letting them have any ammo!
“Republicofscotland says:
“What is your Plan B when BJ inevitably says No”
We get assurances first and foremost, if Johnson says no then we’ve lost nothing, however if he says yes that’s a bonus.
Latest Junker says if the deal is rejected there will be no new deal on offer.”
So no plan B then, Why do you think BJ will comply with a section 30 – this is key to your position.
We need to concentrate on the GE. SNP are the only independence minded party in Scorland that can take seats off unionist parties. If they stand on an Indy platform and win a large number of seats, Boris will find it very difficult to deny the request and that’s not just my opinion.
link to thenational.scot
Sorry.
‘such circumstances’ (the failure of the New Deal to pass through Parliament).
“…Gove said the “future of Northern Ireland is now decided by the people of Northern Ireland”.
The same must be applied to the people of Scotland.
SNP supporting this would be an absolute gift to the BritNat media, especially BBC. They would milk this ‘u-turn’ of the SNP for all its worth. It would be a colossal own goal. You can almost see the Better Together leaflets: “SNP Supported Brexit because even the SNP know we are better together.” If you think SNP BAaad is awful just now, this would be relentless to the point of changing the mind of many switherers as to the SNP’s ‘true intentions’ “You can’t trust them to deliver on their promises”, “SNP stabbed their supporters in the back” blah, blah. Endless. You, more than most, must know what it would be like, Rev. Sure – it’s unlikely to influence the indy diehards but it WILL influence the switherers. And you know it will.
But this is perhaps getting ahead of ourselves. With BawJaws as PM there will never be an IndyRef2. Sure, he’ll promise the SNP the Earth with legal bells and whistles attached to encourage the SNP into believing the deal is water-tight but the sneaky twist of declaring a national emergency, suspending devolved administrations (indefinitely) will ensure he delivers the cubed root of hee-haw (cf. The Vow).
We play the long game. Keep England imprisoned in the EU with SNP votes until the become so frustrated they demand their very own IndyRef to leave the UK (and thereby the EU – (c) Blair McDougall 2014).
Never. Trust. A. Tory.
Ever. They’re mendacious bastards. Every last one of them.
“SNP MPs cannot vote for this deal and will not vote for this deal.”
link to snp.org
Re Juncker:
He will change his mind on an extension when either the letter is sent as per Benn or the opposition tries to force through a bill for a second EU Referendum on Saturday.
“What like the DUP one with the Tories, the one they have now effectively dumped, very amusing.”
Have they? The deal was “support Theresa May’s government in return for a bucket of cash”. They did, and they’ve still got the cash.
“SNP supporting this would be an absolute gift to the BritNat media, especially BBC. They would milk this ‘u-turn’ of the SNP for all its worth.”
There is no U-turn. And once again, since when did we give a fuck what the BritNat media said?
“We play the long game. Keep England imprisoned in the EU with SNP votes until the become so frustrated they demand their very own IndyRef to leave the UK”
This is the dumbest idea in the history of dumb ideas.
@defo
Only if you want the SNP to vote leave rather than abstain. There is zero chance they will vote leave. The whole premise of this is nonsense and never going to happen. I suspect they would also lose the referendum using this approach, then we would truly be fucked, for a long time.
I want assured approach, not the hope of what some may consider a good poker hand.
“So no plan B then, Why do you think BJ will comply with a section 30 – this is key to your position.”
Well if Junker confirms radio news reports that there will be no further extension, it could be in parliament s interests to secure the deal, which is around 90% of May’s original deal.
Jfngw @ 2.37
Makes a good point…. It’s all over for the Scottish Tory MPs if Scotland votes for Indy..
So could their numbers scupper any arrangement?
For the hard of hearing, reading and thinking the SNP have promised a Scottish independence referendum next year.
It’s game, set and match to Boris.
Just shows what a little ‘balls’ can achieve.
“There is no U-turn.”
From your perspective perhaps not. But That’s not HOW THE BRITNAT MEDIA WILL PORTRAY IT.
“And once again, since when did we give a fuck what the BritNat media said?”
We – the diehard indy supports don’t give a flying fig about the BritNat media – but the mendacious crap they’ll print is not aimed at us, is it?
“This is the dumbest idea in the history of dumb ideas.”
Aye well – they once thought the fridge was a dumb idea. England wants its independence from the EU. If Scotland is seen as the obstacle to England achieving that then they’ll quickly begin to realise that getting rid of that obstacle is the solution and they can only do that with their very own IndyRef.
SNP must vote no. The people of Scotland voted remain.
It seems those polls about England happily agreeing to “sacrificing” the north of Ireland for the sake of England’s brexit have proven to be correct.
Final comment on this, I’ve posted too many already.
I see the Rev has a twitter poll on what outcome BJ wants (I’m not on twitter so I’ll comment here). There should be a third option, he doesn’t actually care if it’s a deal or no deal, he just wants to achieve his 31st Oct self imposed deadline, nothing else matters.
Then he wants to sweep to victory in an election, the consequences are irrelevant to him, he won’t be personally affected and will be gone before the hit truly shits the fan in a few years. He will then write his memoirs in with a Churchillian edge.
Ok… here’s a thought.
Johnsons mentor (Dominic Cumming) has already ‘gamed’ the SNP response to NI receiving preferential treatment and (wait for it) offers Scotland the chance to remain in the Single Market and Custom Union provided they vote in favour of the New Deal.
Impossible?
Like I said… just a thought.
since when did we give a fuck about what the brit nat media say…..??
Well the SNP have been crawling to the brit nat media for years! However, its not us that the brit nat media would imfluence but the 50% of the electoral that dont support Independence!!
Thats the danger with this. Sure were facing danger anyway but… never hold the hand of the Devil!!
Proud Cybernat says:
17 October, 2019 at 3:00 pm
SNP supporting this would be an absolute gift to the BritNat media, especially BBC. They would milk this ‘u-turn’ of the SNP for all its worth. It would be a colossal own goal. You can almost see the Better Together leaflets: “SNP Supported Brexit because even the SNP know we are better together.”
——————–
I agree that this proposal would really put the SNP on the back foot, and is therefore extremely unlikely to go ahead. When Stu first started advocating it my instinct was to reject it.
But one of his strongest arguments is that people’s distaste for the deal would disappear during indyref2, because voting Yes would offer an escape from Johnson’s hard Brexit and the economic bedlam it will bring (roughly a 6.5% fall in GDP, which compared to current growth of 1.5% might mean a net drop of 11% over three years).
I’d add that we’d just have to work even harder at uncoupling the next Yes campaign from the SNP. Let’s not forget that Yes only rocketed when we did that last time round. No sane Yesser wants the next campaign to be focused on the SNP (or organised by them either).
Devil’s advocate: Could the SNP abstain in return for a S30 order?
@Cubby,
Yes we know that thank you. We are looking at one means of making that very thing happen
“So no plan B then, Why do you think BJ will comply with a section 30 – this is key to your position.”
Well if Junker confirms radio news reports that there will be no further extension, it could be in parliament s interests to secure the deal, which is around 90% of May’s original deal.”
Junker is head of the Commission. It is the EU states that get to decide if there should be any extension and its length. Junker only concerned about the deal that is on the table for now. His job is to sell the deal that exists today.
\Admiral
Short answer yes
WM is essentially a triple-hung parliament. This is briliant for the SNP because in such a parliament it means their votes DO HAVE EFFECT. With the other parties divided, the SNP can effectively use their votes to keep Scotland in the EU and, simultaneously, stymie England’s demand for Brexit.
If that situation continues (and I don’t really see why it shouldn’t) then something will have to give. We just have to be patient.
“…people’s distaste for the deal would disappear during indyref2…”
IndyRef2 won’t happen when BoJo suspends the devolved administrations, ostensibly for ‘national emergency’ reasons.
We stay in WM. We agitate. We frustrate. We piss them royally off.
Something will have to give.
The SNP know this and am sure have presented UK government with a dwal lf their own.
This will get us out in the next year.
Oops. Deal of their own
Rob Outram says:
17 October, 2019 at 2:57 pm
We need to concentrate on the GE. SNP are the only independence minded party in Scorland that can take seats off unionist parties. If they stand on an Indy platform and win a large number of seats, Boris will find it very difficult to deny the request and that’s not just my opinion.
link to thenational.scot
——————
Cheers for this, Rob.
“The Bill also provides an exemption from Electoral Commission question testing – which usually takes 12 weeks – for referendum questions that have been tested before. Therefore, if the 2014 referendum question were used again, the legal basis for the vote could be approved within just eight weeks.
It continued: “The Bill also allows Scottish ministers to specify the length of the referendum period during which the campaign rules apply. There is no minimum specified in the Bill, so it could be as short as one week.
“Before this campaign period starts there must be a six-week period during which lead campaigners for each outcome are designated, but the time between approval of the legislation and polling day could be as little as seven weeks.
“This means that in total, a minimum timetable for the whole referendum process is 15 weeks.”
JUst a thought…. if the SNP approached the Tories and tabled such a proposal… do you not think that Labour (or some individuals in Labour) would go against the whip and vote for the deal to keep Scotland?
Proud Cybernat says:
17 October, 2019 at 3:25 pm
“…people’s distaste for the deal would disappear during indyref2…”
IndyRef2 won’t happen when BoJo suspends the devolved administrations, ostensibly for ‘national emergency’ reasons.
We stay in WM. We agitate. We frustrate. We piss them royally off.
Something will have to give.
—————-
Agreed. Stu’s plan wouldn’t even be considered by the SNP, not least because it came from Stu. We’re just shooting the breeze here.
I am still puzzled as to why Boris needs support from the SNP.
If Boris wanted support then the DUP and sections of Labour would have added greater numbers of MPs to vote for his deal.
Sturgeon today speaking to Radio Clyde about the deal:
“SNP MPs cannot vote for that and will not vote for that because our job is to stand up for Scotland’s interests – not sell them down the river. ”
I agree. The only excuse for it would be an absolutely 100% guaranteeable YES vote, a totally definite transition in the EU, and guaranteed EU membership. And even then it’s far too presumptive that that’s acceptable to the majority of the Sovereign People of Scotland.
@adrianB,
Only 12 DUP and a few Labour like Hoey. Not enough.
It’s the long game
SNP craves legitimacy from centre left in England should we ever have to resort to plan b.
SNP doesn’t have a good answer for this deal re hard English border. Better no brexit, if possible, than any brexit at all. No brexit is better for indyref arguments.
If its no brexit at all they’ve managed to get what our people wanted. That’s a success. Plenty other reasons for independence.
Tam the Ban @ 3.13
I just admit that it crossed my mind that getting an equivalent deal to N.Ireland ( minus the oil fields of course and possibly without the Referendum rights of N.Ireland ) would Mibbi be VOW 2!
Supposing Nicolas right and they will eventually cave over the section 30 and Scotland is likely to vote yes.
In part because of the way we’ve been treated over Brexit.
To offer to “fix”that it we stayed is about all they have.
In fact when ye think about it,they had nothing left to offer Scotland so they’ve created something…
Tis a thought…. Because even if This deal fails now…
Right back it comes after a General Election if Jonston wins especially with a majority…
@Dadsarmy,
And if The Tories and or Brexit party wins a majority, at the coming election, then Scotland is going down that river anyway,
I think you’re wrong on this one, Rev. Brexit is not going to be stopped. No one is going to revoke it. If the deal falls on Saturday, we’ll end up with a GE which Johnson & the Brexiteers will walk. And if it falls by a lower margin than there are SNP MPs, the howls of, “The Jocks stole our Brexit!!! Get rid of them!!!” will be audible in outer space, even through its vacuum. There is no good way out for the UK anymore – they’ve screwed it. The SNP just need to keep acting for their constituents. And whatever else happens, avoid any deal with the Tories.
Also shouldn’t we be expecting a quid pro quo from the EU too for finally getting brexit off their agenda?
Say we take your course of action, could this cause a big problem when we ask to rejoin the EU once independent? Since SNP have been such ardent remainers, and also campaigned for a 2nd brexit referendum, would a sudden swing of our motives, our facilitating the exit of the UK be looked upon unfavourably in any way?
Personally think its just too wild a turnaround. And a crash out no deal brexit will help indyref2 chances more, than an SNP driven soft (hard) brexit, imo.
The only scenario that would be acceptable for the SNP to vote for Johnsons deal is for Scotland to be excluded and remain in the EU with a guarantee of an Indy ref that all parties accept the result.
The Tory whip calculated that with the votes of all Conservative MPs, fifteen ‘Independent’ Tories plus the DUP and nine Labour rebels, then that give Johnson’s deal a majority of one.
Seems more likely than the SNP voting for Scotland to suffer the effects of a Boris Brexit. Makes an Indyref vote for Indy which we want against a Boris Brexit that we voted for.
Meet Holly. Holly is doing all the heavy lifting our indy movement needs:
link to twitter.com
Today’s events are yet to be ratified by the DUP and the House of Commons.
The concrete hasn’t been poured yet.
Jolyn Maugham reporting the motion for the vote on Saturday is doctored. They are only offering this dea! or no deal in contravention of the Benn Act.
The only chance go stop them appears to lie with the Nobile Officium st the Court of Session.
Liz g @ 3-42pm
Liz…last week someone on here renamed me ‘Tam the BARN’
Today… you’ve renamed me ‘Tam the BAN.’
I’m starting to develop a complex…lol
WHO AM I?…WHERE AM I?…IS ANY OF THIS REAL?
Saw clips of Nicola condemning this latest ruse by Boris…the rants are fine, but they always finish without the awaited “And we hereby declare what we intend to do in reply!”
It’s all just “We will go back to Westminster, where they will shout us down or walk out when we speak and the Media will treat us like soft wee dogs always wanting another bone”
We seem to be in “Well we have came this far with them, be as well seeing how it goes for another wee while” repeat loop.
Depends on the source material – I’ve heard that Boris may have 317 votes – needs 320 to win and there are currently 322 prepared to vote it down.
All hinges on the DUP and their decision could influence some ERG Tories…
All to play for, so SNP should reject it.
No abstentions form anyone on this vote – it is too tight.
@Liz
Tis a thought…. Because even if This deal fails now..Right back it comes after a General Election if Jonston wins especially with a majority
Even if vote fails..The extension isn’t guaranteed
Especially going by Boris and Junkers (not the EU leaders granted) statements.. what use the Benn Bill if EU leaders say “No Extension”…out we go…cue a happy Boris and DUP
let me ask you a straight question Stu
Do you personally, with your hand on any book you believe in,even if its dawkins god delusion actually believe in Scottish independence, or do you have all your poll evidence, at hand simply to try to sabotage things at the moment after decades of campaigning where things are falling into place. remember there has still been ‘no material change in circumstances’
I get the feeling Stu, that you have gone ice ice cold on independence.
prove me wrong Stu..try to say something positive, I suspect I will be waiting a long time.
divide and rule seems to be your only mantra these days…repeated and repeated.
I have supported this site financially for years, but no more
TV pictures of Johnson all smiles, glad handing and friendly chat with the EU leaders and officials.
Funny that since they are supposed to be the “evil empire” according to the leave campaigns.
Mike lothians 12.57pm. Which is why Wales will never win a vote on independence.
Bob Mack @3.22pm
Bob I am sure you are aware but who are the WE you talk about. Are you now a spokesperson for Wings or some other group of posters.
@Robin,
Of course Stu believes in Scottish Independence He wants to get Indy quickly. He is just as tired and fed up as many of the rest of us are.
He may have a different vision or focus on how to get there or how to deliver a Scottish Indy, than some others but he clearly supports Indy.
Tam the BAM @ 3.58
So sorry Tam my auto correct hates me! 🙂
I will try harder
You should see some of the changes that I do catch,I live in dread of one of the really offensive ones getting through..
Agree with some of the posters on here, Johnson is a snake who needs Scottish resources. Any deal wouldn’t be worth the paper its written on. GFA comes to mind.
@Cubby,
You know surely that several posters contributing to an argument with views are called “we.”
You could split a hair with a teaspoon
@Robin
A guy who has held up the mirror of truth and fact for years and yet you say the guys turned his back on the end goal.
Deary me…just cause you don’t like the message doesn’t mean you question the Messenger.
The “prove me wrong Stu..try to say something positive” smacks of a doubting disciple…careful now..don’t go all cultish
@Desimond,
Rather odd folk.
@Cubby
I have an address for adult literacy classes if your interested.
“Devil’s advocate: Could the SNP abstain in return for a S30 order?”
Hi! That’s what the article is about. It specifically mentions abstaining in paragraph 5.
BawJaws is going for a No Deal outcome – it’s as plain as flour. He knows this will be voted down and hoping he can get round Benn Act, which he won’t.
Agreement will be found by CofS to be contradictory to terms of Treaty of Union and render it incompatible thus illegal.
Clerk of Scottish CofS will issue extension request (irrespective of Junker’s pontifications) and it will be granted (with terms of GE or 2nd Ref to be held by certain date, if not you’re automatically out).
Johnson will get his GE and will win most seats but without majority (Brexit Party will prop him up). In new parliament Brexit Party will force No Deal Brexit thru.
SNP request S30 to proceed IndyRef on legally agreed basis. WM says, “This still isn’t a really good time” and refuses. SNP take UKGov to court. And win.
Brexit chaos across UK. UKGov suspends devolved administrations (indefinitely), scuppering ScotGov’s IndyRef2.
Not sure what happens next…
Is anything being said yet about the “Divorce Payments” to the EU?
That was ment to be a sticking point as well?
Did Johnston get a dazzling deal there too?
I like the idea Stu, and recognise most of the pros and cons in the ensuing “conversation”
BUT
A section 30 order is much too small a price to pay for such a monumental and risky move by the SNP and I would be dead against that.
HOWEVER I would be in favour of raising the stakes in return for the SNP voting with the tories, and instead of a section 30 order ask for a mutual dissolution of the union in return for ensuring England & Wales got the Brexit they voted for, and Scotland got “continuing state” status thus honouring our remain vote.Both deals would take effect on 31st October – how sweet would that be ?
The EU would have to agree of course – why wouldn’t they ? and the whole of both deals would be ratified on the same transition period timescale – end of 2020 with the end point of each deal being dependent on the other being completed simultaneously.
SNP could commit to holding a confirmatory referendum a few years down the line (maybe a “generation” down the line) with the option of opening negotiations to rejoin the UK. We would not have to worry about backlash in the upcoming Westminster elections because we wouldn’t take part, and the next Holyrood election is in 2021 when we would be an independent country !
The MSM and the Unionists would moan of course, but they moan at us anyway so what’s new ?
The SNP would have unequivocally achieved its primary goal and all of us old people could die happy !
“I get the feeling Stu, that you have gone ice ice cold on independence.”
Then you’re an absolute fucking imbecile. It’s the SNP who’ve gone cold on it.
“HOWEVER I would be in favour of raising the stakes in return for the SNP voting with the tories, and instead of a section 30 order ask for a mutual dissolution of the union”
Not only would Johnson never agree to that in a million years, he SHOULDN’T agree to it. Like it or not we have no democratic mandate for instant independence. We have to win a vote fair and square, even if it’s 50.0001%.
Should the SNP find themselves with the opportunity to abstain in return for full powers over Referendum and turned it down I for one would be sickened and I don’t think I could be much more sickened with their whole handling of this Brexit debacle, I’ll never understand any Independence supporter thinking that it would be the wrong thing to do, we either want Independence or we don’t, it’s that simple. as for the media having a field day with it, who really gives a toss about the media. Labour/Lib-Dems/DUP all have done and will continue to do deals that benefit them, are we meant to be so special so bloody meek and so damn polite that we can only accept Independence if the rest of the UK is hunky dory. England and Wales voted to leave and England is determined to leave come what may.
Farago just backed up what Ms Cherry taunted JRM with.
This ‘deal’ leaves the Brexiteers tipping their hats to a EU court!
It’s the Norwegian Blue deal.
Bojo is at it.
Soz Stuart, this isn’t a goer. It’s a sham to see out time.
“Clerk of Scottish CofS will issue extension request (irrespective of Junker’s pontifications) and it will be granted (with terms of GE or 2nd Ref to be held by certain date, if not you’re automatically out).”
That makes no sense whatsoever. An extension is an extension. EVERY extension so far has notionally had those terms, because every time a deadline arrives we’re supposed to be out unless we ask for another extension.
And it would be ludicrous for them to say “this is the last extension, no more after that, definitely”, because it just wouldn’t be credible when we’ve had so many already. Nobody would believe it, including the UK government.
The EU’s stance today, expressed by Juncker, has basically been “Right, that’s it, we’re sick of you, do this deal now or fuck off.”
Giving the Tories support in return for a section 30 is too cheap, the SNP should be demanding the transfer of referendum powers at least.
Even if the SNP offered Johnson a pact he’d stipulate that he’d only deliver S30 if he managed to get WA thru WM. Which he doesn’t bloody want so he’ll (secretly) have some of his own MPs to vote against the deal to ensure the SNP numbers are neutralised and the Bill fails. SNP look bad. Very, very bad. Job done. GE next.
“…SNP should be demanding the transfer of referendum powers at least.”
We already have those powers.
“The SNP just need to keep acting for their constituents. And whatever else happens, avoid any deal with the Tories.”
And what, just give up on independence?
If we support the tories to get this through,believe me the Scottish people will never trust us again. Thank goodness we have a steady hand on the tiller in NS……she will take us to the promised land.
The SNP in the eyes of the world is the YES movement so steady as she goes as the water is about to get very turbulent.
“Imagine if there was something we could do”
Yes it is, to dissolve this broken union and be done with the whole thing. The fastest way to do so is to stop brexit and to force the powers that be to see the dissolution of the union as the only possible path to avoid EU regulations.
“We’ve heard them, and they’re all rubbish”
That is your opinion. I happen to think that what you propose today here is actually even more rubbish because it gives the English establishment the consent of Scotland for brexit by the back door. In other words, you appear to support the overruling of our vote too.
I have never wondered this before Mr Campbell, but I am wondering it today: what side are you really on? I appreciate that you do not live in Scotland and the prospects without a deal and with Scotland declaring independence must be pretty dire down there, but that is not our fault. We did not vote for brexit. Scotland did not put in power the cartel of rogues that are currently representing England and causing all this havoc. You appear to give more importance to England’s democratic vote than to ours and I am afraid I cannot simply see past that.
“It’s not Scotland’s job, or our right, to override their will”
It is not Scotland’s MPs job to override our will either. We have not given them a mandate to support any kind of brexit and I will not forgive them if they do because that will be giving a desperate Westminster the consent of Scotland by the back door to impose on us a brexit we never voted for, we never asked for, we never gave a mandate for and we never gave consent for.
It is not England’s job or its right, to override our will, and yet, that is exactly what they have been doing to us for the last 5 years. Now you ask us to stop pushing for our right so England can have its own? Sorry, I cannot accept that.
This is an individual fight because Scotland and England cannot possibly both win. I am sorry you are living down south and will be seriously affected by this stupidity of brexit, but I rather Scotland win, quite frankly.
““But we’d lose an indyref that was held after we’d enabled Brexit!”
Why?”
I cannot believe you are asking this, actually. Once you have actually given consent for brexit you have just lost all reason to celebrate that independence referendum. No disrespect intended, Stu, but you are being ridiculous. You are simply bulldozing the foundations of the best case ever for independence Scotland has had in the last 300 years. I am actually quite disappointed with where this line of thinking is going.
“Why wouldn’t he?”
Are you for real?
@ProudCybernat
The UK Government and the UK Government alone can agree to Scotland holding a legal referendum. The Scottish Government do not hold these powers.
“Junker is head of the Commission. It is the EU states that get to decide if there should be any extension and its length. Junker only concerned about the deal that is on the table for now. His job is to sell the deal that exists today.”
Don’t you think Junker is better placed to have a finger on the pulse of what the other EU states are thinking, with regards to making his comment regardless of his position?
“And what, just give up on independence?”
The way of giving up on independence is by supporting this brexit deal. The SnP does not have a mandate to vote for brexit, never mind giving the consent of Scotland for Brexit by the back door.
“The way of giving up on independence is by supporting this brexit deal.”
Pish. How do we get independence without another referendum?
“The UK Government and the UK Government alone can agree to Scotland holding a legal referendum. The Scottish Government do not hold these powers.”
Presently any council in Scotland can hold a referendum on anything without WM’s ‘consent’. ScotGov are, as I write, pushing a Referendum Bill thru HR to clearly and fully establish this in law. It will be signed by Her Maj at the end of the year and, crucially, cannot be referred to the SC by UKGov since it is entirely within HR’s competence.
“Presently any council in Scotland can hold a referendum on anything without WM’s ‘consent’. ScotGov are, as I write, pushing a Referendum Bill thru HR to clearly and fully establish this in law. It will be signed by Her Maj at the end of the year and, crucially, cannot be referred to the SC by UKGov since it is entirely within HR’s competence.”
Man, all the senior QCs and constitutional lawyers who disagree with each other on this are going to be so embarrassed when they find out some random guy on the internet’s known all along.
@Tony Hay,
“She will take us to the promised land”a
The last time I heard that quote was just before Rev Jim Jones killed a thousand of his own followers in in Guyana.
They believed him tooe
You may be right though.
Bring on the No deal!
Yes 54% No 46% exc.
link to drg.global
Proud cybernat…..my mistake.
Wait until they, the Tories, announce WHO they have picked as next UK ambassador to USA….guess it will depend on who they feel they may NEED to appease if this so called ‘Deal’ is as unappetising as is being presented and will be seen as such to a certain pro Brexit party currently snapping at the Tory heels in the upcoming GE…though deal or No deal that gig, as ambassador, could very well STILL be considered for Mr Odious or one of his Brexit party compatriots…clue..business man whose girlfriend right wing hack who exposes gutter stories for the gutter press.
See after Cameron honoured (Lol) Michelle Mone….nothing but nothing seemed as if it was off the table in relation to rewarding those who were clearly the WRONG people enTITLED ( pun intended) to be rewarded….of course a Knighthood for a certain person could also appease some of the more …rabid Brexit supporters…. and indeed the individual himself….gets him off the election radar as well….would be fitting as all Brexit party ‘politicians of sort’ are Tories anyway….as is Aaron Banks & co.
BTW anyone disclosed yet the outcome of investigation as to who leaked to Oakeshott re Kim Darroch’s comments….or is she another one who is untouchable because of her…links to certain people and a certain party…..as in operation Hot Potato.
Maybe Johnson would not agree to dissolve the union, but he DEFINITELY wont if no-one suggests it to him – I wonder if Dominic Cummings might think it was a good idea ? I agree that we need a democratic mandate for independence, even 50% + 1 vote , but that’s what the confirmatory vote would do, anyhow Johnson has no democratic mandate to take Scotland out of the UK, the Tories have no democratic mandate to govern Scotland etc, etc. so why does the SNP need a majority in a referendum rather than (say) a democratic mandate in Holyrood, or a democratic mandate of more than 30 Westminster seats ?
“Don’t you think Junker is better placed to have a finger on the pulse of what the other EU states are thinking, with regards to making his comment regardless of his position?”
Junker has no say and no vote in the situation. He can give an opinion. Given that today has been about this “Newfangled Deal”.
Denmark have said this afternoon that a further deal would be possible – not aware of any other member states at this point.
link to twitter.com
Given that a week is a long time in politics, today has been another long week.
link to independent.co.uk
@Defo,
From that pol! its clear the young are on side, but as usual the over55 remaining resistant
Ghostly606 4.50pm. I wasn’t sure if Scotland held those powers or not. Because I wondered what the purpose was of asking for a S30.
‘Then you’re an absolute fucking imbecile’
fair enough…..I am ; pity that running a business helping to pay peoples mortgages, and having multiple university degrees hasn’t helped me with logical thought processes, i’m doomed obviously
what is more to the point is that you didn’t actually answer my questions…I wonder why?
must be me being such a stupid oaf as I just thought you might not try evasive tactics like being abusive and that you might have descended to my level and tried to answer the question, but no.
hey ho…live and learn, I’ll go and chew some turnips
Bob M
Then we’ll just have to scare/bribe the old b’stards.
Says he less than 2 years off 55 🙂
Lowest pensions in the OECD type stuff.
Work until you drop in the good old UK.
“I have never wondered this before Mr Campbell, but I am wondering it today: what side are you really on?”
Just so that we’re all absolutely clear, if we weren’t already:
Disagree with me on strategy all you want. Make your case. But anyone turning up on my website and suggesting that I’m some sort of fifth-columnist secretly acting against the interests of independence gets banned – no warnings, no arguments.
I don’t care who you are, or how long you’ve been commenting here, or how many fundraisers you’ve donated to. It will absolutely not be tolerated. I’ve taken too much shit in the last eight years to put up with that here. You’ve been told.
It would be difficult to conceive of any other deal more likely to get people to vote for Scottish independence.
Big thanks to Leo Varadkar, Mary-Lou, Simon Coveney and the gang in Ireland for holding their nerve. Boris will either win support for deal this on Saturday, or push it though after the election on English votes
Thank God we have an outstanding individual like Nicola to manage this difficult course over the next few days.
I can see the DUP losing North and South Belfast and possibly South Antrim over this – ending up with a minority of Unionist MP’s in NI for the first time.
Lets hope Stu does not bust a blood vessel in the meantime
Meanwhile on planet Breeks, far, far away, the SNP doesn’t abstain, or vote to ‘maybe’ bring down Boris Johnson’s ‘deal’, but instead lodges a Constitutional veto against Boris Jonhnson’s Deal, denouncing it as unlawful, unconstitutional, and asymmetrically prejudicial to the interests of Scotland.
The Constitutional challenge doesn’t stop at Brexit, but extends to the litany of breaches to the Act of Union, some historic, some recent, which, granted some were approved by supine ‘Scottish’ parties, but when taken altogether, have now rendered the Articles of Union unrecognisable, and thus unenforceable, and without the further tacit acquiescence of a puppet Scottish Government, (a situation no longer applicable), the flagrantly unconstitutional OUTRAGE of Brexit and the breathtaking arrogance of both Westminster and the EU riding roughshod over Scotland’s Constitutional Interests, means that ANY Brexit Agreement will be challenged by Scotland in a UN Constitutional Courtroom as unlawful Colonial Subjugation of a Sovereign Nation, and flagrant disregard for various Articles in a binding treaty flouted.
Vote for Johnson’s Deal? Sir, I would burn it, and use it as a taper to set light to the Union itself.
“Thank God we have an outstanding individual like Nicola to manage this difficult course over the next few days.”
*sit around with her thumb up her arse desperately hoping that something miraculous falls in her lap somehow
“Man, all the senior QCs and constitutional lawyers who disagree with each other on this are going to be so embarrassed when they find out some random guy on the internet’s known all along.”
A Referendum Bill. I said nothing about the S30. That’s yet to be tested in a court – as you well know.
A few random guys on the internet:
link to twitter.com
link to weegingerdug.wordpress.com
This may be academic as it isn’t clear to me that Boris has the numbers on his side even with SNP support…which doesn’t look likely as things stand.
This mess may well result in a s30 but it could come from Corbyn/Labour rather than Boris. Trouble is the former change their mind on an hourly basis and the latter is about as trustworthy as a wild weasel down the front of one’s trousers.
“Vote for Johnson’s Deal? Sir, I would burn it, and use it as a taper to set light to the Union itself.”
Good luck with that.
“This may be academic as it isn’t clear to me that Boris has the numbers on his side even with SNP support…which doesn’t look likely as things stand.”
Every assessment anyone’s made so far suggests that he’d PROBABLY win it if the SNP abstained, and would DEFINITELY win it if they voted for it.
“A Referendum Bill. I said nothing about the S30. That’s yet to be tested in a court – as you well know.”
As the saying goes: a tiny bit of knowledge about a different subject, based on a failure to understand WHY it’s a different subject, is a dangerous thing.
Thanks for the reminder, Robin.
” Boris will either win support for deal this on Saturday, or push it though after the election on English votes”
Given that Boris has follow T. May plan of running down the clock, keeping details secret to prevent derailment and made it a Noel Edmond’s “Deal or No Deal”, we could yet see Boris bring back his deal for a second vote to get his preferred answer at the end of the month.
An election is still possible, but Boris is at least for now going through Parliament. Everything is still up in the air and this may only be the first vote.
Seems like a good time to put this out again:
link to ukconstitutionallaw.org
that’s without the Referendums (Scotland) Bill to make it easier, quicker and strengthen it.
“As the saying goes: a tiny bit of knowledge about a different subject, based on a failure to understand WHY it’s a different subject, is a dangerous thing.”
There’s no such saying. But anyway – ScotGov are pushing thru a Referendum Bill to have Royal Assent by the end of the year. That will legally permit ScotGov to hold a referendum on ANY issue. FACT.
Tell me where Andrew Tickell is wrong?
Did I hear Mr Junker just say that negotiations can move on and they can discuss the EU’s
Access to UK Fishing grounds?
Read Scotland’s fishing grounds Bertie!
He won’t go for it.
England needs Scotland.
“Tell me where Andrew Tickell is wrong?”
He’s not wrong. You haven’t fucking understood what he said. As I already noted.
“that’s without the Referendums (Scotland) Bill to make it easier, quicker and strengthen it”
The R(S)B has exactly this much impact on the Scotland Act which determines the legality of an independence referendum:
None whatsoever.
No doubt someone has said this already, but, just in case, I’m going to point it out in any case:
Johnson would refuse a deal with the SNP over support for an S30 in exchange for supporting Johnson now because he doesn’t give a shit about getting a deal, and he never has.
In fact, he’s now got what he wants – the EU saying there will be no extension if the current deal is not accepted. Now he can not get a deal, ask for an extension and not get it, and Brexit on 30 October. Then he can call an election, if he wants, and win it by a landslide, by saying that he “got Brexit done” despite MPs trying to stop him.
@Proud Cybennat,
Nl. Its not fact. It would end up in The Supreme Court as per the link posted by Dadsarmy. That could end up badly or well.
Well said Maria F. At long last someone talking sense. This latest c r a p from Stu is the worst idea yet.
For years on this site all independence supporters have said time and time again “Never Trust A Tory” it beggars belief that anyone can think it is remotely a good idea to get into some sort of deal with the Tories.
Does anyone else think the EU seems awful certain this dea! is going to pass? Its all smiles and plans for fishing etc.
Something not clear as yet.
@Bob Mack 5.56pm
It’s very odd. It is as if they are completely done with it now. I wonder if Johnson has promised them stuff we are not aware of yet?
I can’t help thinking that this open goal just got wider, the defenders have all taken a wee nap, the goalies ran off wae the cheerleader, but we’re away from home and the place is a sell out.
All the opposition fans are staring at us, helpless, they definitely don’t want us to shoot………we’re nervous, but ready…..all we need to do is take a leap of faith.
NS needs to do a deal with the devil, call it respecting the other three nations, call it respecting EVEL, but get a deal done!
and if i hear one more rant about the big bad Press reaction, or it damaging our future WM or HR elections, I swear I’ll scream.
NS saying the SNP wont vote FOR the ‘great new deal’ – I just hope she doesn’t fall into the trap of saying that the SNP will vote AGAINST it – that would be an unforgivable folly at this stage.
“Does anyone else think the EU seems awful certain this dea! is going to pass? Its all smiles and plans for fishing etc.
Something not clear as yet.”
If you were Junker and after 3 years of fu**ing around would you want the British press and Parliamentarians to concentrate on
a)”The Deal”
b)Other options
The problem with acknowledging other options is they gain traction and the headlines become EU Junker backs extension….
After hearing about this in the morning, I crossed back and forward on the main news channels many times over the day just to get the exchanges of views. Never heard the name Scotland once.
The media have a lot to answer for.
@Proud Cybernat
Here’s from Brodies:
link to brodies.com
“While the UK Supreme Court has confirmed that the Scottish Government has a “prospective competence” to legislate in a manner which is incompatible with EU law (provided such legislation does not come into force until such time as the relevant provision of EU law has been repealed), there remains open a question about whether the Scottish Parliament also has a prospective competence in relation to reserved matters. As we said previously, that is a constitutional battle for another day.”
The Bill / Act allows a Minister to use secondary legislation, but as the article says above, that has to be within the competence of Holyrood / Parliament / Ministier.
Essentially both you and Rev are half right. That’s a half opinion of course 🙂
Can’t believe so many folk are rejecting this idea out of hand because ‘you can’t trust Tories’ or ‘you can’t trust Boris’.
FFS…talk about stating the fuckin obvious?
Point is – we’re not just dealing with Johnson and Tories. We’re up against the WM Establishment.
Totally agree with this article.
It is like the SNP do not actually know how to do politics. Either that or they, despite their endless rhetoric really want to wait until after 2022 before getting independence. Why is the legislation not being rushed through the Scots parliament? Why so slow? Almost the SNP are just running the clock down to the next Scottish elections.
I am so tired of apologists for the SNP whining but doing nothing. They can make as many ‘great speeches’ , or condemn The Tories as much as they like, it won’t make ANY difference. Talking about how awful Westminster is will not get us independence. Not in a million years.
You need a metaphorical gun at Westminster’s head. Playing by their rules, will achieve nothing.
So, Joanna Cherry, or Iain Blackford can say what they like. They can ‘ask Boris challenging questions’, they can make speeches, they can make statements, but nothing will change.
As for the section 30 nonsense, Westminster must be splitting its sides laughing. ‘oh you want a section 30, and you really, really, really mean it this time, and you say you have a NEW mandate? The answer is still NO’.
“The R(S)B has exactly this much impact on the Scotland Act which determines the legality of an independence referendum:
None whatsoever.”
Of course it can’t affect the Scotland Act, that’s not its purpose. But the Scotland Act does NOT determine the legality of an Independence Referendum. Show me where exactly it says it does [i.e. citation needed]
@Adrian B,
Its the body language that intrigues me. When May was in the same situation the EU officials had a solemn look. Today totally different. Its very odd. Not in keeping with the situation at all.
Scots by 52% to 48% now want to respect the Leave vote and deliver Brexit as Boris agrees his Brexit Deal with the EU
link to twitter.com
link to twitter.com
Spot on Stu. Honestly, we’re worried about upsetting, well, who exactly? England gets its Brexit because we decided not to vote on an England-only issue, and we get our precious S30 order and a referendum date for indyref2 at last. What’s not to like? (If that does happen though, we can’t afford to wait a year before the vote)
It’s a difficult decision
WOS could be right , vote with BJ and get the brexit deal over the line in exchange for a agreement by Westminster for Scottish independence referendum
SNP could be right , a majority of people in Scotland voted against brexit many of them have now joined the movement for Scottish independence because of the way Westminster has treated Scotland and its majority remainers over the last three and a half years , if SNP MP,s now vote in favour of brexit having been against it for three and a half years they could lose a lot of support in a Scottish independence referendum.
I hear the arguments coming from both sides
I have always been of the opinion that SNP should not try and stop the brexit winning side from having their brexit because the fact is it was a U.K. wide vote and the leave side won.
Simple as that.
I also think it would be wrong for SNP to vote in favour of brexit because the majority of people in Scotland voted to remain.
My conclusion is therefore that SNP should abstain
If they do so BJ will likely see his deal fail in Westminster but we know that a no deal is then very possible
What is unlikely is that brexit will be cancelled
I’m understanding both positions
But I’m going with SNP because they are the only political party that will get Scotland independence
Sure WOS makes sense and advises direct action but I think it holds more risk
Rev. Stuart Campbell says:
17 October, 2019 at 5:32 pm
“Vote for Johnson’s Deal? Sir, I would burn it, and use it as a taper to set light to the Union itself.”
Good luck with that
Hey, it’s my planet. I can do what I like. I’m Sovereign.
You know I sometimes think when I hear Ian Blackford in HOC that he comes over as a bit He Man Master of the Universe…or rather SNP Man Saviour of the UK from Brexit.
Sorry Ian, but I cannot bear to hear you say one more time that ” Scotland voted to remain in the EU ” AND to then start defending the UK’s position on Brexit in the HOC…we all know, as do the English, Welsh , Northern Irish and the EU that Scotland did not vote for Brexit….so now move on and tell us what you and your party are going to do about it.
Readers of WOS :
Cast your minds back as to why you voted for the SNP in the last GE…and indeed previous GE’s.
Cast your minds back as to what your position was post EU referendum result when you knew Scotland voted Remain but England & Wales were Leave thus determined the final result for the whole of the UK.
Cast your minds back…what was the first thing you thought should happen re Brexit bearing in mind the above…was your first instinct SNP should save the UK…SNP should stop Brexit…or was it, like me, that’s it let’s get the f*ck out of this and get our independence.
Cast your minds back what did you want the SNP to do first , and if they did this and were told say ” Now is not the time”…what did you expect them to do next ?
If you answer I elected the SNP to sit in WM as my rep and stay there and wait until some Tory twat said they were ‘allowed’ or not ‘allowed’ to hold another Indy ref as it suited the Tory twat…well good luck to you…..because I like others cannot extend the time I have on Earth to await that decision.
If you also answered I wanted the SNP to stop Brexit for the whole of the UK then perhaps the Lib Dems might be more suited to you as a party cause that is what they want too as Unionists..apparently…or at least what they are SAYING they want…to gain votes, where before, none were available based on their previous ill fated coalition with the Tories….and the fact that they are obvious Jeremy Hunts.
See this Brexit we are allowing ourselves to be dictated by it…and Brexit when it did not exist…was never an issue for Scots who wanted independence ( or indeed for the many English who voted for it)….and it must not be allowed to define why and how we get Independence…because then it becomes a weaker one issue argument and we all know that it, independence, has many many strong arguments that support and justify it happening….irrespective of Brexit.
All that Brexit has done is show that yet again we are ignored and our votes mean nothing, but Brexit itself is not exclusive to demonstrate that, how we Scots, are NEVER, as part of the UKOK, given what WE voted for….and that in itself is as good a reason as any to show that we deserve and should get our independence….we don’t need to thwart Brexit for the Brexiteers….but we do, as do the SNP, need to ensure that we don’t become casualties in THEIR battle but instead get the ball rolling to begin our own battle to win independence ….
Tories don’t respond to nice…past and recent history has shown us that at least has it not…..God look what happened to Oliver Twist when he used the word “Please” when he wanted MORE food..yon Beadle was a Tory Lol…yeh yeh… .fiction I know but I am desperate to convince someone…..God make it stop…I will if it will Lol…this is like a rollercoaster that we should, in fairness, be allowed to get off…so whose stopping us?..
Have a good evening everyone…..and I mean everyone…Lol
Dadsarmy 6.14 pm
You are correct
It is a Westminster act that determines the legality of a referendum in Scotland and elsewhere in U.K.
Political parties elections and referendums act 2000
How much money did the backers and friends of Boris make out of him rigging the value of the pound with his out in performance?
@Hyufd,
That your type of porn then ?
Question was leading.
Just a heads up. Re GE, please make sure all your children, grandchildren, foreign neighbours, people who rent, people away at uni, are registered to vote. A substantial proportion of people are not registered and it would be tragic to lose their votes.
How much money did the backers and friends of Boris make, out of him rigging the value of the pound, with his out/in performance?
The Tories have been around since the end of the 17th Century. They’ve survived this long by doing deals with just about anyone if necessary.
If they’d really wanted help from the SNP they’d have asked by now. They haven’t – because they don’t need them. They don’t care if there’s no deal, and they’ll get a landslide at the next election.
“Totally agree with this article.”…………
“As for the section 30 nonsense, Westminster must be splitting its sides laughing. ‘oh you want a section 30, and you really, really, really mean it this time, and you say you have a NEW mandate? The answer is still NO’.”
The article that you praise is about asking for a Section 30 which is something that you don’t appear to agree with.
The main reason for not doing deal is that the Tories can’t be trusted one bit.
Bob Mack @4.30pm
What date are you attending Bob. May join you if you think it’s a good course.
Both Mundell and Davidson pledged that no Scottish Tory could accept
That there might be a border in the Irish Sea as it would put Scotland at
An economic disadvantage with NI.
Role out Tory Creep Ross Thomson who has just popped out of Boris’s
Backside to jump for joy at such a deal.
@Terry callachan
The PPERA is for the conduct of referendums, not the subject matter. The Referendums (Scotland) Bill effectively replaces that thank goodness, as that’s quite Westminster oriented not surprisingly. And out of date.
“22. As discussed above, whilst PPERA provides for referendums held under Acts of the UK Parliament, there is currently no legislation covering the conduct of referendums held under Scottish Parliament legislation. The Bill is therefore required to put in place the procedures for the running of referendum campaigns, polls, counts and declarations and certification of results.”
link to parliament.scot
I think bettertogether is now the hallmark of the EU
BBC London ignores Scottish dimension to proposed EU deal. BBC Scotland has one sentence from Nicola Sturgeon while spending first seven minutes on an old story about Rangers coach.
What’s the point of BBC Scotland other than to reinforce the Unionist agenfa
Just to clarify what I said, it’s the part of PPERA that relates to referendums not the whole lot, that the Referendums (Scotland) Bill replaces!
The people in power in Scotland are surely not going to accept the way Scotlands being treated, it’s never ending what’s good for Northern Ireland is good for Scotland they have to put up some fight it’ll never change if they don’t, it’s embarrassing the way their treating us, everybody on this site wants some kind of reaction but will it happen?.
The deal will be dead as soon as the Benn bill is nixed. DUP and ERG now firmly in charge with their guy BoJo in the hot seat. Welcome to AirStrip One.
Johnson says it’s a good deal for all parts of the UK. What a liar.
Britnats lie and they lie all the time about nearly everything.
“Today is the best coverage Johnson will get for his ‘deal’. Lots of syncophantic praise from journalists and others who should know better.
The deal – especially the Political Declaration – is far worse than May’s deal.
That will become apparent over next couple of days.”
Can’t wait.
(Tweet from Prof Colin Talbot.)
We go anywhere near the Tories it would be the end of the SNP maybe that’s what your after Stu. Also it may be a way of getting a 2nd referendum which then we would be certain to lose for such skulduggery. You don’t do strategy do you Stu.
O/T…
I’m curious. Today, particularly, I’ve noticed various commenters using ! instead of l in their comments. At first, I thought it was just a typo but how do you manage to make a typo in a word like “still” (sti!l), when it just involves tapping the same key twice?
Is there some new, unknown significance with this use of ! instead of l in comments?
I now don my proud pedant hat.
Your = belonging to you.
You’re = You are.
Seemples!
If the SNP are going to trade Brexit votes for an Indyref I think they will need slightly different circumstances.
If Bojo’s deal is defeated there will still need to be a Brexit of some form. Revoking arcticle 50 would be like pouring petrol on a fire so it leaves a new deal or no deal.
Labour are probably smart enough to know that if they go to a general election without a way of delivering Brexit they will not only lose badly but lose to such an extent that they will not be in office for another 20 years.
However if Bojo’s deal is defeated and then there is a quick move to establish a temporary government that strikes a deal with the EU that retains the customs Union. The SNP could deal at that stage knowing that they can present it as close to their compromise position, not dealing with the Tories, better than no deal and clears the border issue from a Indyref.
Their votes will be arguabaly more important In those circumstances as its possible the libdems don’t play leaving labour to rely on SNP, Plaid, Green, Independents etc to just get to a majority.
so, RevStu
“Just so that we’re all absolutely clear, if we weren’t already:
Disagree with me on strategy all you want. Make your case. But anyone turning up on my website and suggesting that I’m some sort of fifth-columnist secretly acting against the interests of independence gets banned – no warnings, no arguments.
I don’t care who you are, or how long you’ve been commenting here, or how many fundraisers you’ve donated to. It will absolutely not be tolerated. I’ve taken too much shit in the last eight years to put up with that here. You’ve been told.”
ye cannae beat a bit of Irony to brighten up an autumn evening.
still
Interesting snippet burried away in the Institute for Government report thing:
“Scottish ministers’ refusal to consider granting consent under the Sewel Convention could be problematic. ”
link to instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Makes you think and laugh 🙂
Now Boris, have I got a deal for you. You put in that S30 amendment urgently and WHEN IT’S IN PLACE, we’ll withdraw our consent refusals so you don’t have to worry about this:
“There are critical pieces of Brexit legislation which may need to be reintroduced to Parliament, including on agriculture, trade, fisheries, and immigration, which will affect devolved competencies.”
Boris, you are so screwed.
Liz @ 4-19pm
That’s perfectly ok Liz.I was only pulling your leg!
Alister Jack, Tory Secretary of State for Scotland says the deal is great news for Scotland and urges other Scottish MPs to get behind it and put the national interest above political opportunism.
Make no mistake when he refers to the national interest he does not mean Scotland he means England.
“Great news for Scotland” just another Britnat liar.
I wonder how poor old Fluffy and Rooth the Mooth feel this evening.
Nicola Sturgeon on Johnson’s Deal today
“This deal would take Scotland out of the EU, out of the single market, out of the customs union, all against our will, raise the prospect of a very hard Brexit after a transition period, put us at a competitive disadvantage against Northern Ireland and leave us as the only part of the UK with no say over our own future.”
My MPs will vote for that deal on Saturday after all that nice man Alister Jack says it’s a cracking deal. Bonkers. Totally bonkers suggestion.
“I wonder how poor old Fluffy and Rooth the Mooth feel this evening.”
Fairly certain the Scottish Tories will fall into line behind the government. I doubt the media will question such an inconsistency.
SilverDarling says:
17 October, 2019 at 6:01 pm
“It’s very odd. It is as if they are completely done with it now. I wonder if Johnson has promised them stuff we are not aware of yet?”
Word on the street is that Johnson has Whacked the SNP’s Westminster votes right out of the park.
They are extending the CU and the SM to include Scotland – this will leave the SNP looking stupid and irrelevant but with little option but to support his deal.
They think that due to all the Brexit hating and EU loving the SNP has been doing of late, this move will undo any advances made on the independence front and inspire a Tory resurgence in Scotland.
A sort of win-win situation, maybe even a win-win-win situation If you are an SNP MP who has more love of his cushy job than he has for Independence.
Basically speaking the reason BoJo’s eyes are watering in some of the photos you see is that the ScotGov has their hand around his nuts and are squeezing hard.
Ouch, that’s gotta hurt.
Nurse!
The Britnats hammered Scotland in the eighties.
The Britnats hammered Scotland in the financial crisis 2008 onwards.
For goodness sake do you want to see Scotland hammered again due to Brexit.
Vote SNP and YES to stop this madness once and for all. Get Scottish independence done.
Scotland should be an extremely prosperous country it’s only the criminal UK that is holding it back. It can also be a fairer country. A happier country.
“They are extending the CU and the SM to include Scotland – this will leave the SNP looking stupid and irrelevant but with little option but to support his deal.”
If true, did you ever read this?
link to gov.scot
It means the ScotGov would have won, not lost. And if anyone thinks that’s permanently sustainable once in operation, beyond a couple of years or three I have a bridge for sale …
When did you go over to the Dark side STU? The idea of the SNP offering Johnson any kind of deal is ridiculous going through the 80’s and 90’s being called “Tartan Tories” was bad enough but this nonsense, SLAB and their Two faced puppet media allies would have a field day! I think you have really lost the plot these Days!
Sorry, that last one to @Col.Blimp IV
@Paul,
Bye bye.
As a ‘thought experiment’ I get this, I see the logic. Unfortunately politics has little to do with logic, or even reality.
Boris Johnson is head of the Conservative AND UNIONIST Party, the clue’s in the name. He knows his own party would pillory him for such a move and yes, he would renege on it. He IS a known liar and has been sacked from the Cabinet and his newspaper column for lying. Imagine the two occupations that do the most lying could not even stomach HIS lies, THAT is how bad a liar he is. this man is someone who conspired to commit assault, is a domestic abuser, doesn’t know how many kids he has and makes your average idiot look like Einstein, he was voted in as leader because they reckoned he was stupid enough to get himself into serious trouble to get UK out by ‘hook or by crook’
Then there’s the other aspect to it, the SNP themselves. At the moment they are popular and so is the idea of Scottish Independence. That’s not happening in a vacuum. The fate of Indy and SNP are utterly intertwined no matter what anyone says. If the SNP gets this wrong then support for Indy will wane. We needn’t worry about the faithful, it’s the recent converts and those teetering on the edge who are about to come over.
We have the current support for Indy over 50% BECAUSE OF Brexit, because of Scotland’s inclusion in it against her will, it’s seen as an escape route. So if the SNP are seen to do ANYTHING that in any way, shape or form supports or enables it then support for Indy will dip again.
This is an attractive idea, but when you look at it closely it just won’t work.
If there was an easy fix, whether from Boris’s point of view, SNP or both, it’d have been done by now. It’s not an easy fix, doesn’t work for either side and would HINDER both sides in their own separate aims.
One thing they BOTH share (Tory and SNP) is that the other is persona no grata for them and their supporters. Any cooperation with the Tories would be jumped on by SLAB and this would deter their former and current voters from supporting Indy.
SLAB’s lack of popularity and some of their voters moving, unbelievably, to the Tories, SHOULD be a wake up call. they should, at least, be less averse now to Indy. Don’t forget that when Labour voted on the attitude to take on Indy it wasn’t a SLAB vote, it was party and union delegates from all over the UK (England, Wales and NI) THAT is how they got a majority against Indy. Would a purely SLAB vote be different? If SLAB either supported Indy or were ambiguous how would THAT affect the vote? Remember the level of support for Devolution in 97 compared to 79? The difference? Labour support. It’s from that quarter we need the support. Corbyn and McDonnel aren’t against Indy2, they’re being told they SHOULD be against it though, that’s the difference…
Saturday sittings are for dirty deals.
dadsarmy
I don’t think it is true, though I do that know Ian Blackford is sufficiently Machiavellian to “unofficially” propose it – if he thought it fitted in with his fiendish master-plan … The nature of which I can only speculate.
Wonderful just watched Channel 4 news…we had Jo Swinson comment, Keir Starmer interview, Andrew Bridgen interview, who overnight has went from supporting the DUP’s position to throwing them under a bus Lol…never trust a Tory….some biddy from government institute who helped clarify that if some English business went to NI under this deal then no tariffs..lovely.. and someone from Brussels who like us in Scotland does not fully trust Bojo….SNP though…nope….nada…no one from the party interviewed.
So impact on Scotland…who gives a sh*t….views of Scotland’s representatives…who gives a sh*t….we’re lumped in with Engerland….and not worth a separate mention..lovely.
NI obvs mentioned…lovely….worth noting jack sh*t on Wales either…lovely.
Discussion with CH4 political peep with Jon Snow re his opinion on rebel Tories…rebel Labour…DUP… and how they may or may not vote on Saturday…no mention as to how SNP will vote… cause like that vote….. is taken for granted…or perhaps like everything else to do with Scotland they give not a jack sh*t.
Come Indy Ref 2 they will up here like a swarm of locusts giving, like all other UKOK channels, their skewed version of events….our opportunity to tell them to GTF….our business not theirs.
Message to self…stop watching news programmes…that includes UK Tonight…oops sorry meant Scotland Tonight.
Am I mad …nope….just sick of this second class citizenship we seem to be forever filed under….by the English dominated media.
Channel 4….they were quick enough to come up to Scotland when the ‘Drugs’ story broke….or rather was exploited….and I am sure we will see them up here in January for the Alex Salmond trial…salivating and speculating all the usual sh*t …..
How refreshing it will be to be free of them one day….
@Bob Mack
The EU is happy today because they have put any blame for a no deal firmly into the UK’s court.
Either Bojo’s deal passes, we have no deal, a general election or another referendum but all four of those options are now firmly because of UK decisions.
Only way I can see the EU renogotiating the withdrawal deal is there is new prime minisiter who doesn’t have some of the red lines May or Bojo has and is in effect more likely to stay in a customs union.
I also think there is also a sense of relief in the EU that they don’t have to go through any more conversations about the backstop.
Its hard to see how today isn’t a really good day for the EU.
@Briandoonthetoon,
Not evefybody has fingers to be as precise with typing as you would like perhaps
@Col.Blimp IV
I very much doubt if it’s true either though I’d be celebrating if it was. Independence within 3 years would be almost automatic, and by that time our economy would have doubled. Yes please 🙂
But that’s also why Scotland can’t go with NI being given that status without us, their economy would boom at the expense of ours, and proportionately to a far lesser extent, England’s. If the SNP went with the Rev’s proposition they’d be chopping Scotland’s legs off at the knees.
This is an interesting question, perhaps:
link to twitter.com
(To which the answer is not necessarily straightforward, or singular.)
Listened to R4 at about 5.45 ish today. Group talk seemed to accept IRef2 2020 was a given with a high probability that Scotland would become independent.
Rather than angry hyperventilating the tone was subdued acceptance.
Interesting.
@crazycat
She used to be a NO voting LibDem, moved over to YES while posting on the Herald and became one of the best pro-Indy posters,
.
Stu., this stage was bound to get challenging. Nicola is out of time. Why? Too many of my friends are on this wretched fcucking Tory and NewLab ATOS death list…
http://www.calumslist.org
Whilst Nicola has dropped the baton that Alec handed to her along with Scotland at high tide for IndyRef2.
How do we get the SNP high command to listen NOW before Saturday and ABSTAIN IN RECEIPT OF A WATERTIGHT SECTION 30?
Without this, more disabled people will be killed off by the Red & Blue Tories.
Also, two points:-
1) Dominic Cummings is a very, very clever psychopath who wants a modern day 5th November meltdown of the HoC and establishment.
2) Ergo we cannot be too sure about whether Boris wants this deal to go through, or needs it to look legit so that when it fails and NO Deal happens, BoJo and DomCo the psycho can watch the country burn whilst they go on to win 5 years of Tory power and thousands more DWP welfare reform deaths.
Stuart, somehow those on this forum who “get it” NEED TO MOBILISE NOW SO THAT IAN BLACKFORD STOPS TALKING PISH, TRYING TO SAVE ENGLAND FROM THEMSELVES AND WHAT THE ENGLISH LEGITIMATELY VOTED FOR.
I used to hold Ian Blackford in high regard, but he is NOT reading the polls.
Stu., PLEASE help get this sorted. Some of us can’t watch as more people with disabilities are killed off by the DWP.
—-
P.S. Tam the Balm, I very much agree with you.
P.P.S MariaF why are you on this site? Stuart Campbell’s strongest suit is to dissect arguments and situations to a forensic degree. This is why WoS commands so much interest. The Rev has CLEARLY explained the situation and given a solution backed up by a TON of evidence and argued to an elegant, Dux prize winning level!
I was at the SNP conference a few days ago. The crowd was far, far smaller than the heady days when Alec Salmond handed Nicola the FM job. I like Nicola, but she and SNP MSPs are far too comfy at Holyrood. Worse: too many SNP MPs daahn saaarf have gotten FAR TOO COMFORTABLE sitting in all expenses paid luxury at Westminster – the best propivate club in London.
1) Brexit is happening irrespective of what Scotland thinks
2) Why would SNP risk alienating the pro-EU voters in Scotlands by making Brexit easier for Boris?
Scottish voters would rightly never forgive the SNP for voting with the Tories on Brexit. Patience – our time will come. Scotland will be independent….
dadsarmy
I’d too would be astonished if it turns out to be true, I remember it being suggested a couple of years ago and immediately discounted by the Yoons, and now it has been resurrected as a solution to the Northern Irish Butt-plug.
If it is O.K. for them there is no reason for it not being applied to us … It would even be fine by me if the Torys had a George Robertson moment and thought that it would “kill Nationalism stone dead”.
Because I think that with a border of sorts between us and England and a guarantee of continued EU membership, it would be relatively easy to persuade the punters that the transition to Independence would be fairly seamless and painless.
FPTP completely corrupts politics at WM. Take this 2017 GE example of who won the 18 seats …
DUP 36.0% 10 seats
Sinn Féin 29.4% 7 seats
SDLP 11.7% 0 seats
UUP 10.3% 0 seats
Alliance 7.9% 0 seats
Independent 2.0% 1 seat
If there had been a proportional system, it should have been something like …
(Just a guess, but something closer to proportional. It would depend on system adopted.)
DUP 36.0% 7 seats
Sinn Féin 29.4% 6 seats
SDLP 11.7% 2 seats
UUP 10.3% 2 seats
Alliance 7.9% 1 seats
Independent 2.0% 0 seats
The DUP do not speak for NI, FPTP gives the wrong impression.
FPTP gives the wrong impression for almost every aspect of a WM GE.
Is Scottish Demographics a taboo subject ?
Hi Bob Mack.
I just can’t get my head around that it’s easier to type !l, which involves typing shift-1 (shift-one) then “l”, than it is to just tap the “l” key twice.
What am I missing?
Seems to me that all the usual frustrations of politics – opportunism, lies, hypocrisy, weakness and lack of ‘justice’ are getting to you Stuart.
In the real world the position which you advocate would be understood and accepted by so few that our movement would shatter and independence be set back for a very long time. Johnson would know this and suck us in a little before turning whistle blower with all the thunder of a life long liar telling a big truth for the first time.
People rarely do when they’ve gone as far as you have Stuart but I strongly suggest that you pull back or you’re going to risk making yourself much less relevant.
Of course we can’t trust the WM establishment, history has shown that repeatedly.
I don’t care about Brexit for England or Wales (apologies, Welsh Sion if you’re out there) as that is what they voted for. But if the options are give WM what they want so Scotland can continue to be shafted when they ignore us or tell them to GTFO because they’re just going to continue to shaft Scotland then I choose the latter.
Honestly, I think Johnson is on to a winner regardless and will be likely to move for a quick GE. Were the SNP to vote with the Tories on this one then I think we’re looking at a replay of 1979 which will set us back decades. I’d rather be stood on doorsteps arguing that the SNP fought for Scotland’s interests than listen to renewed cries of “tartan tories”.
“He’s not wrong. You haven’t fucking understood what he said.”
Really? Do explain.
@ dadsarmy at 8.42
That’s interesting; thanks.
It’s Stu’s blog. He’s fully entitled to give his opinion that the SNP should make a deal with the Tories.
Of course, he’s talking shite this time but, it’s no any worse than the shite coming from the SNP with their s30 begging bowl policy.
How about this piece of feathering your own nest?
link to washingtonpost.com
All this chatter is pissing into the wind.
Me, the Rev., you and the dugs in the street know that the SNP high command, how many are there in that select band anyway, will continue to bleat about Sec. 30 pleeeze, Scotland voted 62%, blah, blaH, while Mr. Johnson says fuck right off, Jocks.
And that’s from someone who this morning at 8.00 (controlled entries)was going up and doon sters sticking leaflets in letterboxes for our MP. At 75. And a half. Mind you there was only about 40 closes.
When do we get aff our knees, or is it oor bellies noo, and tell Westminster we’re dain it.
A case in point, drug “safe houses” in Glasgow. It’s against Westminster rules. It saves lives, it keep folk stable, stops crime for cash for a fix. If Scot.Gov said we’re jist dain it, are they gony send in the Guardia Civille to smash them up.
I am sick to the back teeth, those I have left, of all this.
How in Christ Stu keep at it, I don’t know. He’s a better man than me.
Balaaargh
Absolutely, never, ever, again must we allow a half-chance that they can hit us with being Tartan Tories once more.
Took years to ‘lose’ that accusation. No, No and No again from me.
I really want independence.
I have no idea what is going on anymore.
For my tuppenceworth, here is what I think would happen.
If the SNP even so much as attempt to contact Boris Johnson in order to propose the suggestion made here, Johnson will very quickly make their approach to him public, and use it to turn them into a laughing stock.
Even if he promised the SNP beforehand to keep their suggestion secret, he will immediately break that promise. Moreover, with no compunction whatsoever – just so long as it allows him to blow a big hole in their bows, and helps to sink their ship.
The scenario proposed presumes that Boris Johnson is desperate to get his deal through the Commons. I don’t believe for a minute that that is the case. If anyone is desperate to get it through, it’s the EU – and within the EU, Leo Varadkar more than anyone – not him.
The truth is that this is indeed ‘a great deal’ – for the EU, not for the UK. For a start, it is a much better deal for the EU than May’s deal ever was. For all his bluster, Johnson has in fact capitulated on many of the things that May had insisted upon, and obtained from the EU.
The difference between May and him is that she was a genuine Unionist, whereas he is just a pure chancer. An opportunist, pure and simple, who simply wants to be Prime Minister. Even his commitment to Brexit is in function of that one ambition – a mere means to lever himself into Downing Street, not a genuine conviction. And no matter what the consequences.
He hasn’t got any genuine convictions. That’s why he can come up with a deal like this. Far from the great negotiator he will present himself as, he has simply given in to whatever the EU wants. To make it SEEM AS IF he – the great negotiator – won an extraordinary victory with this crazy deal. Like a magician pulling a rabbit out of that top hat of his which everyone had thought was empty.
But the truth is, it is empty.
All this, from Boris’s point of view, is only for show. The kind of show which, in his calculations, will keep him in Downing Street for a long time more. You see, if the deal goes through the parliament he will be the hero of the moment in the perception of the public, and the press. That’s what chiefly interests him about this deal, however fallacious that perception. Don’t forget, he’s really just a cheap journalist, interested in the headline of the moment, and not in any greater reality beyond that.
And if his deal does not go through the parliament, he will still be the hero of the moment. He will still be able to present himself as the great negotiator, who was thwarted by the treacherous and villainous parliamentarians who opposed his wonderful deal. Even the EU will express their extreme disappointment at the Westminster parliament rejecting this final offer deal.
So that, irony of ironies, even that same EU which Johnson has constantly vilified – whenever it suited him – will be in the business of making him look good! ‘What a terrible shame’, the EU will say, that the UK parliament has rejected this wonderful deal that their terrific PM, jolly good Bojo, has negotiated for them.
They might be hypocritical but they won’t be lying when they say this, these EU people … because they do know a good thing when they see one. In fact, they know very well that Johnson’s deal is indeed truly ‘wonderful’. For them, that is, not for the UK. It’s ‘terrific’, for the EU, compared to what they had been forced into offering May.
You can bet your bottom dollar (or their bottom euro) that they have really got to like our Boris, and want him to be the PM of the UK for many a long year to come. They’ll be quite happy to let him pretend to his British public that he stitched them up, when in fact – as they know very well – the exact opposite is actually the case. He deals in perceptions – ‘good’ (i.e. rotten) journalist-politico that he is – but they deal in facts. Reality.
The kind of reality that makes the world go round, with the real stuff – real money – not the fish-wrapper trash that only makes the headlines of a day, pampering political chancers like Johnson with the ephemeral plaudits that they need to keep the illusions they create around themselves afloat in the minds of their vapid public.
Wait till you see what lies behind this deal – no wonder they all look so beaming and back-slapping and chummy. They really got him. And now they’ll sustain him …
So, what will happen if Westminster votes down the deal? Well, Boris will write the letter requesting an extension that he is required to write, according to the Benn legislation … And the EU will immediately refuse the request. They will tell Westminster: ‘Sorry, that was your final offer: why don’t you vote on it again. And if you refuse it a second time, just be aware that you are leaving our club (the EU) with no deal whatsoever on October 31.’
You see, what Johnson has agreed to, is just too good (for the EU), for the EU ever to let it go. So they’ll support Johnson all the way now.
And if there is a second vote at Westminster and the Johnson deal is again rejected … Well, Johnson will have reassured them that he will still be able to save the day for the deal (his) that the EU are now convinced is in their best interests. After a very brief post-October 31 interval he will be able to resuscitate it, whether by engineering a successful referendum on it, or through a General Election which he is confident he will win outright.
As for him, he won’t in fact really mind if Brexit is done through ‘his deal’ or through ‘no deal’, just so long as he comes out of it looking like ‘the hero of the day’ in the eyes of the great British public. Or rather, in the only part of that ‘great British public’ that really matters – England, and English voters. That, after all, is what the whole thing is about, for Boris Johnson. Brexit is not about Brexit – it is only a means to an end.
Or, rather, two ends. The first of which – getting him into Downing Street – it has already accomplished. And the second of which – keeping him there – it will continue to serve. So, at least, he hopes.
If it were ever to threaten his position as PM, he would drop it (Brexit) like a hot potato. As it is, it’s doing its job nicely. Brexit is not for Britain – it’s for Boris. Deal or no deal, so long as Boris is winning, everything is going fine.
We are not in a period of normal politics any more. We don’t have a normal PM. The SNP would be absolute fools to negotiate with this man, or to compromise themselves with him in any way.
The whole charade being played out between him and the EU reminds me of only one thing. Or rather, haunts me with one simple image, which keeps coming back to me mind again and again …
That of Neville Chamberlain coming back from his talks with Hitler in Munich, waving a piece of paper to the cheering crowd, and proclaiming ‘Peace in our time’.
That was the great ‘deal’ which made everything OK for generations to come, on September 30th 1938.
A year later … and where were we?
And where are we now?
Have the roles been reversed?
If Juncker and Barnier and the whole 27 who have just so happily negotiated with him are the Neville Chamberlain of our times, what does that make Boris Johnson …?
SNP, be warned. Stay far away from that man, whom some seem to find so charming … No spoon can ever be long enough to let you sup with him with immunity. Just don’t do it! Never.
@crazycat
It’s great when you see a 2013/14 convert become a real and active asset for Indy. Better than an old-timer than me!
Dr Phillipa Whitfield on BBC Question Time
=====================
Brian Doonthetoon says:
17 October, 2019 at 9:07 pm
I just can’t get my head around that it’s easier to type !l, which involves typing shift-1 (shift-one) then “l”, than it is to just tap the “l” key twice.
What am I missing
======================
I have seen ! used as a text deliminator in automated messaging systems.
Entirely possible some automated bot isn’t working exactly as required.
I doubt this new deal will fly to be honest, and I doubt its meant to.
But by it being legitimately ‘on the table’ it might just be there long enough to see of the Benn Act and the Nob Off.
A thought, since no government can tie the hands of future governments – how legally binding would a S 30 order signed by a PM be?
The last one – were they not going to refer it to the House of Lords for review when the polls got tight?
What scares the shit out of them is us getting to the ballot box.
I’m really not sure about the Revs idea, but I understand where he’s coming from. My trust for the SNP is at threadbare levels. Never thought I’d say that. Still, keep keeping on.
Sinky
Dr Philippa Whitford SNP MP ?
Stu, are you a high-functioning , high IQ Asperger?
IE being able to see what is logically obvious, but not able to understand the social and political implications of it??
It seems extraordinary that you cannot understand why neither Boris nor Nicola could deliver what you suggest without damaging their respective causes (in Boris’ case – himself) and lose some of their core support with the deal you suggest above
Those who would deny themselves a chance to live their dreams clearly self ID as anti Tory first and pro Scotland second.
The UK has plenty of embittered, serial losers who squandered their biggest opportunities for happiness in preference for a life of untrusting negativity and prejudice – how else do you think Leave got 52%?
Meanwhile Nicola should really seize this moment. Honestly, what has she got to lose? If she doesn’t deliver a ref next year she’s finished anyway.
She should hold her nose, hold her nerve and take a gamble.
Cubby @ 7:35 pm
Moving another step closer to invoking part 5 of Article 50 is great news for Scotland.
Daisy Walker @ 10.25
I pretty much agree that the deal probably won’t fly this time.
But a deal they need (to keep the GFA in tact to satisfy the US ) so it will “get done ” if Johnston wins the GE..
And, yes in 2014 the House of Lords started to question the section 30 order.
If I’m remembering right,it was around a yes vote changing the whole Union so therefore it would become a matter for Westminster…
Also something about the Government of the day not being able to legislate in the first place for something that would find all future parliaments.
It was only a debate and didn’t go anywhere at the time.
But had we voted yes I think they were prepared to do their bit to stymie it…
Al-Stuart @ 8-42pm
Tam the Barn
Tam the Ban
Tam the Balm
…..zzzzzzzzzz (anymore?)
Great post Will,
The only thing I would add is this is not just about Boris Johnson keeping Boris Johnson in Number 10, there’s bigger than him waiting in the wings.
Liz Truss claimed the other day (16th) that MPs will not get a vote on post -Brexit deals ( negotiated and approved by the Govt alone).
Wanna buy an NHS Guvna?
Unfortunately so enamoured by Mr Johnstone’s charms today, most of the political media are not even joining the dots
Cadogan Enrite @ 10.37
Your out of order.
And not just towards Stuart Campbell.
Tam the Bam @ 10.44
Oh my it’s getting really funny now 🙂
Poor You.. LoL
Liz @ 10-50pm
Considering changing my name by deed-poll!
Tam the Bam @ 10.56
Ye cannie dae that I’ve jist learned it.. 🙂
dads army
Thank you for the really important documents you have linked to on this site tonight. They are vital reading for anyone trying to work out the best way through all this.
The Independent document which considers the No-deal Brexit effects is startling in places especially in its treatment of Scottish Independence and the considered advice to WM.
Also found it fascinating that the NI deficit is 9bn and yet they chastise Scotland for her deficit….
link to instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Will love it if this deal is considered illegal because of Rees-Mogg pushing the tax regs. Karma!!!
Nicola is playing the long game and it would seem that once the Scottish Referendum Bill is active, Indy ref 2 can be called in 8 weeks from the Section 30 agreement.
Scotland will be independent, do not doubt it.
Suggest you all read through the No-Deal Brexit analysis before eyes turn up to ceiling about waiting for ‘Section 30 permission’ scenario.
Swinson is not being taken seriously, Corbyn guilty of dereliction of duty, worst opposition ever, Johnson only out for himself. Saturday a nail-biting day for everyone.
Wonderful to watch, on QT, two educated Scottish ladies: one a former consultant surgeon, the other an Oxford-educated PhD, rip a right-wing Tory and a Brexit a looney a couple of new ones.
Hancock and Daubney were so out of their depth against Phillipa Whiteford and Anneliese Dodds. I almost felt sorry for them. Almost, but, not quite.
O/T
Philippa Whitford MP playing an absolute blinder on Question Time.
NI will get the best of both worlds says Matt Handcock on QT
So why can’t we all have the best of both worlds ?
LOL!
Cadogan Enright ‘Stu, are you a high-functioning , high IQ Asperger?’
Bit of a trend this nowadays – I dont agree with you (or dont understand you) so you are either deranged or have evil intent.
Liz g says:at 10:47 pm
Cadogan Enrite @ 10.37
“Your out of order.
And not just towards Stuart Campbell.”
Seconded. This isn’t twatter, and that was a very low blow.
Apologies are in order.
It’s not even like you’re a newbie.
How long have you been availing yourself of this platform?
Liz g,
Bang on liz. Cadogan has been getting very tetchy with everybody bdcause he or she cannot control their own frustration.
1)Kenny j 9.41
Establishing drug houses was an obvious thing for Holyrood to do.
Just do.
Something of genuine social worth that would also have been a direct challenge to Westminster.
Instead we got the same political snivelling
oh, please devolve those powers
As we are getting with indyref2
Oh, please give us a Section30
2)Simple question for those who think the idea in this article is beyond the political pale.
If you knew doing it would GUARANTEE an indyref2
Would you hold your nose and go for it?
Or would you still think the grimness of the method outweighed the guarantee?
Lowering ourselves to the level of the British is not in our interests. Never forget that they are prepared to traumatise, disable and kill children and destroy civilisation in other parts of the world to line their miserable pockets. There is no level to which they are not prepared to stoop. Are we prepared to sink as far as them? If not then we need to reject going down the slippery slope – where the ends justify the means.
Not necessary.
In case anyone hasn’t noticed, the Brexit master race have spent the last three years making an arse of themselves on the world stage. They and their inflatable leader are a laughing stock. The laughter, back slaps and hugs when the ‘deal’ was agreed was the other 27 leaders peeing themselves with mirth at the sight of Johnson’s euphoria at being shafted.
There is no shortcut to Scotland’s independence. It is going to demand patience, guile and an understanding that, ultimately, it depends on the support of a committed majority of the population who are ready to be out and proud for indy. The hard truth is that many Scots are feart. They know first hand the depths to which the British are prepared to sink. Their fears are not going to be allayed by an SNP that is unprincipled. Our independence has to be painstakingly ground out at a pace that allows increasing numbers of Scots to overcome the cringe that has been systematically stuffed down their throats. Then we will achieve our ultimate goal. Until then the SNP will continue to improve the quality of life in Scotland despite the worst efforts of the British to destroy the quality of life and the confidence of our compatriots will grow.
Hope they still do.
link to blogs.lse.ac.uk
(wouldn’t archive)
Would’nt it have) been be nice to have voted for indy in 2014 and be a sympathetic spectator of the enormous dysfunctional disaster unravelling in our neighbour’s yard.
Trump tries a little economic ‘divide and conquer’ on the EU.
link to archive.is
What’s happening in Barcelona tonight is George Square x 10. Nazis rampaging about the place battering indy supporters, with no intervention from the police.
Be warned, some of this, such as Ignasi’s tweet where the guy seems kicked unconscious, is pretty hard to watch:
link to twitter.com
The post-brexit health care world.
Coming soon to a hospital near you.
link to theintercept.com
Surprise Billing.
link to khn.org
Wull @9:48
Couldn’t agree more. His deal or No deal, Johnson cares not, and the EU simply doesn’t want to take the blame for the latter – the DUP will be happy to do that because No Deal with a hard border is precisely what they want.
So, the ERG and the DUP will get their preferred No Deal, which will see off Farage and his goons in time for the forthcoming GE and will have the opposition parties at each others throats like rats in a sack for failing to stop it.
The EU will avoid any blame for No Deal, which will fall squarely on the shoulders of Westminster MPs, with the result that turnout at the next GE will fall.
Scotland will get told “now is not the time”, which isn’t quite the same thing as “No”, and the UKSC, in supporting the UK Govt. view that the Constitution is a Reserved matter, will tell the FM to go whistle for a Section 30 Order.
Johnson, despite delivering Brexit and returning a Tory majority at the GE, will step aside for a ‘Unity Candidate’ and go off to face the music over the Blonde Bombshell’s public £ – no doubt intent on coming back a few years hence should the Tories ever need their darling knight in shining armour.
Corbyn will disappear in a puff of anti-Semitic/anti-Corbyn smoke, to be replaced by Keir Starmer.
Sturgeon will similarly suffer a night of the long knives when IndyRef2 is killed off by the UKSC which, together with the salacious reporting of the AS trial, will set the SNP on a course to losing control of Holyrood in 2021.
Having failed to increase the number of seats at the GE, Swinson will slope off to spend more time with the family.
The Tory Govt. will meantime start the process of creating a written UK Constitution to reign in the powers of the UKSC where the actions of Government are concerned and also to permanently bind the constituent countries of the UK together Spanish style – with similar Spanish style punishments for those who might have other ideas.
On a personal note – if the above comes to pass I’ll be contributing to this site from New Zealand.
robertknight @ 1.08
My Robert that’s quite the dystopia yer painting there.
In the interest of no Winger having a nightmare…
I think that…
I Win the lottery buy a billboard company ( they fancy electronic wans by the way none o they cheep paper shite wans fur the Yes Campaigners) and a News Paper…..
Get Joanna Cherry to draw up the contract with my journalists that they are obliged to tell the unvarnished truth and I have nae editorial control…..
Bob’s Yer Uncle….
Indy by the Glesca Fair 2020…. 🙂
Sleep well my friends and a wee sneaky ( sorry rev )
Peace Always…
It was the night of the BrexDeal vote and after all the shouting and balling (and that was just BoJo), the vote was in – and it was a draw. Expectations ran high as the Speaker was expected to vote with the Government – but he was nowhere to be found! In an astonishing change to the normal business of that house he had thrown a sickie and was later observed clinging to lamposts down Oxford Street singing “I’m free”!
The House debated what to do, and in an extraordinary moment of unanimous ecstacy they appointed Rev Stewart Campbell, Breeks and Bob Mack to decide what to happen next.
Well, the rest as we know is history, and on this day of 19th October 2024 we celebrate Scotland’s Independence.
What an escape!
^the 5th anniversary of^
I get to the punchline and screw it up. Who does that remind me of …
Yes indeed “ Wull @ 0948 pm . Under no circumstances whatsoever should the SNP ever entertain any deal or agreement ( as suggested in this latest blog ), with Boris Johnston . Our FM has and continues to play a “ canny hand” and “ soft No’s “ are slowly but surely moving to YES . She requires a “ legal referendum “ and if a section 30 agreement cannot be agreed between Edinburgh and London then undoubtedly the courts will become involved. Thereafter , we either have a referendum or the Independence parties should mandate to END the TREATY of UNION at the next Holyrood election citing the Sovereignty of the Scottish people if an Independence majority is returned .
The strategy is working, any change to a more aggressive or radical leadership will result in a significant loss of support coming from previous 2014 “ Better together” “ reluctant “ voters . The “ fair minded and reasonable people of Scotland recognise our FM has the “ best interests of our people at heart” , they recognise that she stands by her principles , and they recognise that NIcola Sturgeon has worked tirelessly to improve the the lives of our people ( within the current financial constraints imposed by this heartless Tory government. ).Above all they can see that our FM is “ straight & true” in sharp contrast to some of her political “ opponents “ . At this moment she stands “ head & shoulders “ above ANY OTHER “ politician “ in the “ so called United Kingdom” . Finally ,Scottish people are and will continue to recognise a leader with ( ABOVE ALL ELSE ) . INTEGRITY!! An international class politician “ playing” for HER COUNTRY!
Dadsarmy @ 1.54 & 2.03
Nevertheless it was a good wan… 🙂
And the screw up made it better,because it caused ye to do a double take and wonder…. Whit!!!
It’s always good tae wonder Whit!!! LOL
@Liz g
Would that it were a true story, eh!
Aye … If only.. 🙂
Michael Russell
@Feorlean
·
7h
Kent doesn’t have a Treaty of Union, devolution settlement , a Parliament, a Government , isn’t a member of the Joint Ministerial Committee (which Damien Green used to chair) , isn’t in the British / Irish Council , doesn’t have a “national’ gallery , orchestra (and so on..)
Kent isn’t a sovereign nation.
There you go, fixed that for you Mike.
“Stuart”.
Ho hum.
Something amiss with ‘The grand strategy’ thread – comments between 2.06 and 7.33 yesterday not showing.
Scotland has been ignored throughout Brexit BECAUSE Scotland has been ignoring its own Sovereign Constitution throughout.
The Power of Scotland is enshrined in the sovereignty of it’s people, a people who presented the Scottish with a sovereign, let me repeat that, SOVEREIGN mandate to remain in the European Union.
Brexit BREAKS the Constitution of Scotland. It is unconstitutional. It is unlawful. If Brexit is unlawful, any and EVERY Brexit ‘deal’ is unlawful. Don’t you dare shrug your shoulders and look the other way.
Jesus H Christ. Is it too much to ask of a Scottish Government ‘apparently’ supportive of Scottish Independence to at least lodge some form of Constitutional dispute BEFORE our Nation suffers the hammer blow of Brexit?
By all means, take your time and indulge your delusions about an IndyRef when the cows come home, but you, Scotland’s MP’s and MSP’s have the means at your disposal to halt Brexit in it’s tracks on the back of Scotland’s legal constitutional sovereignty. If you shirk that responsibility, then you are as culpable for whatever damage is suffered upon Scotland by Brexit as this Right Wing Tory Junta.
Call it insurance, call it a Backstop, call it a failsafe, call it what you want, but in the name of Scotland, I demand you register a formal rejection of Brexit on lawful Constitutional grounds.
If you abandon Scotland’s Sovereignty and acquiesce to Scotland’s unlawful removal from Europe, far from being a reputable Government to be trusted with a referendum on its own fanciful delusions, you will have become a failed government which the Nation of Scotland should properly impeach, or rather, “exert ourselves at once to drive out as our enemy and a subverter of his own rights and ours”.
Abandon this dismal and thoroughly uninspiring political soap opera, and man your goddamned post, defending the Constitutional integrity of Scotland and confounding the unlawful machinations of a hostile colonial aggressor. Continue to do nothing but squander one heaven sent opportunity after another, then prepare your souls to burn in hell beside the other parcel of rogues who sold this Nation down the river in 1707. Scotland deserves better..
NOTE TO ALL SNP MPS
Please consider tabling an amendment to the Brexit bill.
Which will include Scotland in the Single Market/Customs Union.
Balance all pros and cons relating to Scotland’s social and economic wellbeing and the public perception of the various scenarios which would unfold depending on rival partys reaction to such an amendment.
And weigh it all against the standard … will this advance or retard the Long March to Freedom?
BBC Newsnight, last night did a piece on the Northern Irish Ferry Seems there is only one and it runs from N England to Belfast.
Have the BBC given up on Scotland altogether ?
No National on Aunties papers propaganda page.
MSM setting the stage for the blame game when the Norwegian Blue deal inevitably fails to pass Westminster.
A very dangerous game.
The SNP should never support a Tory government, never ever. Come to think of it why would they support a Labour government either ?
If the SNP want to play tactics then Nicola should hand in a section 30 request today and see what happens ?
You wonder if this has all been carved up between all the party’s from the start.
I had a go at explaining to a child, who did ask, what is it Boris has done.
I said it’s like your family with Boris in it needs a new car.
He promises that he will consult everyone as to what the car needs
To have to suit them and he promises his pal the car dealer to do business
With him in an agreed budget of £10,000.
Boris brags that he will get a good deal on it and will pay less than £10K for the car.
He comes back proclaiming he has got a good deal.
The car he got doesn’t suit anyone else in the family, he stabbed his
Pal in the back and only negotiated with his main rival.
Later on reading through the paperwork you find that he got 1 penny of the price so true he didn’t pay the full £10K, but they didn’t need to give him the car mats, the tank of petrol, the first years road
Tax and he took a very high interest rate that will cost £14K.
Now the deal is do you want to use the car that is unsuitable for you or do you want to walk 10 miles every day?
He goes on to tell his car dealer former friend how cleaver he was beating down the price of the car
And when the car is paid off in 4 years he can consider buying from him at that time.
Good Deal?
The National front cover – not on BBC list – here it is:
link to twitter.com
North Chiel@2.12am
Excellent post. A refreshing change from all the doom and gloom of so many other posts.
What % of Scottish international imports/exports pass through England? How developed are Scotland’s direct international links?
Arthur Thomson@12.03am
Excellent post. As you say Scots have had the too poor, too wee, too stupid stuffed down their throats for centuries creating a disabling Scottish cringe. It is not easy to change that when the MSM continue on a daily basis to pump out that message. But it is coming for aw that. Now above 50%. More and more Scots are having their eyes opened.
Cadogan Enright@10.37pm
Cadogan, I tend to think the site owner can look after himself and more so now that he has Bob Mack riding shotgun for him but really you should stick to your arguments and dispense with the personal comments. The first line in your post, which I will not repeat, is just not acceptable.
Like you I don’t agree with a lot of the site owners recent posts but stick to the arguments please.
Wull@9.48pm
A fine post. The SNP would be rightly crucified for playing constitutional swap shop with a person it had hitherto reviled for his dupilicity.
Labour’s Better Together love-in with the Tories was so toxic it finished them as a meaningful political force. The lessons for the SNP are obvious.
The Section 30 game will be played until the point BawJaws refuses ScotGov demands to open negotiations.
After that, we’ll be on our own with IndyRef2 – and the Referendums (Scotland) Act will be the vehicle for it.
Let no-one underestimate its capacity of putting the Referendum “beyond legal doubt”, or its ability to attract international support.
The SNP has vowed the ScotGov “will take all steps necessary” to hold IR2 next year and, from day zero of any Brexit “commence preparations with the EU for pre-accession and accession talks as an applicant state.”
There will be no backsliding from that position. Here we stand and here we fight.
Looks like the SNP position is pretty clear. If this goes through it will be Labour MPs voting with the Tories that carried it over the line. That is not going to be an easy sell for Labour in Scotland.
We do not sup with the devil.
wull @ 21:48 (17.Oct),
I agree with the others, great post.
The only Deal with the Devil I would even contemplate is an irrevocable Czech-Slovak-style “velvet divorce”.
Democratic schemocratic. All those PSBs still stuck in their dream world would get the necessary rude awakening and switch opinion in an instant, leaving only the rabid manky-jaicket followers on their own.
Philippa Whitford on QT 10 out of 10 for her no shouting just plain truth unlike Matt”Hardcock” or that ex Lab person.I liked the one she mentioned about the plastic card how many people thought about that when voting to leave.
SNP must never ever back the Tories.
This site probably wouldn’t be here, none of these Brexit problems would be concerning us now if one half of Scotland had the balls 5 years ago today.
From what I can see and have read so far, the most practical way that an S30 can be achieved, and this is what is needed for independence to be achieved, is for the SNP and the Westminster Government to agree a strategy for passing this WA in return for said S30.
I would however go further in the SNP demands. Such as permanent control of the ability to hold binding referendums, the existing Brexit Deal to include Scotland being effectively within the CU and SM (as per NI), and Full Fiscal Autonomy.
Perhaps asking for tuppence and getting a penny is worth it.
Sorry meant to say 5 yrs ago September
Scotland Tonight
Last nights programme must have been a real eye opener for any Scottish UK supporter. The main focus was on the Union and how when push comes to shove England cares more about Leaving the EU than sustaining the Union. The British in N. Ireland staying in the union – not that important. The impact on Scotland staying in the Union – not that bothered. Brexit is what is important to England. Scotland/N.Ireland/Wales just seen as an annoying side show.
Any reasonably intelligent Scottish UK supporter would start to see that the Union love affair is a one sided love affair. England doesn’t love you – England loves England.
Of course Wings polling was the first to point to this. Credit where credit is due.
Good morning everybody. A lot to take in ye sterday as this thread shows Got me go thinking zbout how difficult a job Nicola has on her hands.
So many opinions of how to move forward and views on what is acceptable or unacceptable. It must be like herding a mil!ion cats to go where you want to be.
In turn some bave expressed the need for patience, whilst others advise haste or legal routes or just plain old faith in somdthing as yet unknown.
Emotions have run high with anger expressed and thoughts of leaving Wings never go return because the Revs view was not the same as their own or twas seen as harmfu! to long held beliefs or the cause
Yet we al! sit in the same Churcb praying for the same outcome of an indpendent Scotland.
Someday we will know who was right or wbo was wrong I suppose.
Until then I guess we fjght like cat and dog , but at least head in the same direction.
It is a major leap of faith that the EU are striking a deal with the most untrustworthy UKPM, probably ever, and a PM that has never won a vote in the Hof Commoms.
Is it all just the blame game?
DUP is spitting feathers. Eyes popping out their heads – betrayal by Johnson – who would have thought it.
“He’s fully entitled to give his opinion that the SNP should make a deal with the Tories.”
No one here’s saying otherwise. But if he doesn’t want to hear anyone else’s opinions then he shouldn’t have a BTL section.
The Boris Deal is really a No Deal, Some Tories openly talking about this today:
link to twitter.com
link to twitter.com
Three cheers for Jo Maugham, taking court action to halt Boris’s deal.
Jo Maugham tweeted: “We believe the Government’s proposed Withdrawal Agreement is contrary to section 55 of the Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018.”
That part of the act states: “It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain.
What a tremendous pity it wasn’t Scotland’s Government disputing Article 6 Customs Union from the Act of Union, and seeking to sink the Government of Boris Johnson on Constitution Grounds, and unlawful colonial subjugation… Maybe Jo Maugham should be Scotland’s First Minister… (although I’d settle for Joanna Cherry too)…
If Labour facilitate this deal being passed then not only will it damage Scotland economically but it will more than likely deliver a majority Johnson Tory gov for the next 5 years. How could any Labour supporter in Scotland possibly consider voting Labour after that.
Jim Fitzpatrick Labour MP voting for the deal even though his constituents voted 66% remain.
GET SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE DONE. It’s the only answer. Vote SNP YES
Looks like those good chaps at The Herald might be preparing to go on major SNP attack, which may or may nor surprise anyone. Currently their online front page is littered with articles on No Deal effects. I can just see next week’s efforts, naming all those who voted against The Deal, and on and on…
Breeks @ 6.44 totally mirrors my thoughts. The metaphor of Brexit as the Titanic resonates: the SNP sit playing games of poker with the Tories while the whole ship is sunk taking us with it to the depths by the English iceberg of self delusion and imperial arrogance.
How long will it take the farmers and fishermen to realise they have been betrayed.
How many no voters in 2014 now realise their mistake and that they are responsible for us being in this mess
@Breeks,
There is also a reason he is raising these actions in a Scottish Court isnt tnere?
Labour will provide enough rebels by the look of it to pass this deal. They dont seem too worried by accusations of working with the Tories.
Anyway.I hope Jolyn has success at court today.
From all the smiles and handshakes it’s clear that Boris has already won – he’s the man who got Brexit Done and the man that broke the deadlock of the past 3 years. The opposition parties can only offer more opposition. There’s no solution on offer other than “not this”. The deal – for all it’s myriad of faults, can be spun endlessly as a victory. As a result, the election, if there ever is one, is already in the bag for the Conservatives.
I applaud the Rev. for putting the hard decisions on the table but there’s no up and all down in contemplating a deal with the government.
shug says:
18 October, 2019 at 11:11 am
How many no voters in 2014 now realise their mistake and that they are responsible for us being in this mess
Since 2014 over 350,000 Scots have died too late for them !
As for the farmers & fishermen of the masonic variety after paying tithes for many years under the butcher’s apron and oath to betty the last they will never change !
@ James Barr Gardner
I agree that fishermen are a lost cause as they will always chase the carrot that is the prospect of exclusive fishing rights in UK territorial waters no matter how unrealistic that is and how often they get screwed by the government. Farmers on the other hand should be eminently persuadable since a return to EU subsidies should be a lot more profitable than a cash-strapped, post-Brexit UK.
Cubby says:
In an odd way it is perhaps a good sign. It shows where his priorities lie!
The DUP are the BritNatiest of BritNats and he seems willing to put the own fortunes, the fortunes of the Tory party, the delivery of Brexit (any will do), and the cause of English Nationalism ahead of pure BritNattery.
Bodes well, in a perverse way. The Union and the threat that distancing NI from the rUK poses that union, is perhaps well down this pecking order.
Looks to me like Labour votes will not only allow Bojo’s deal to pass but will in effect guarantee Tory majority rule for the next 10 years. Do we expect the Scottish press to highlight this?
Quite how the official opposition has managed to put themselves in this position is beyond belief however Labour will accept its fate and Corbyn will stay in power because it suits the right wing press.
UK Labour is heading the same way as SLAB in Scotland. The SNP are the only hope but they will now be at best only able to limit the damage the Tories do with no way of getting to Indpendence. Its beginning to look like the 80’s all over again.
Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Johnson does actually garner enough votes to get his withdrawal agreement past … BUT the Court of Session rules that MPs can’t vote on it because it’s in contravention of the tax amendment hard Brexiteers passed last year.
@galamcennalath
I fear the hilarity would be short-lived. It would be hard Brexit at the end of the month followed by a new agreement within days with the EU which would just be a resigning of the deal currently on offer.
David Linden SNP MP speaking very well on the BBC reminding viewers that the SNP did put forward a compromise way back in 2016 that Scotland would stay in the single market and customs union and it was totally ignored by the Tories. Now that option has been given to N. Ireland in Johnson’s deal and Scotland has been ignored.
My message to no voters just how do you manage to suck up all this humiliation. Stop cringing and vote yes.
Where is Bertie Armstrong now. Where is his replacement. Scottish farmers and Scottish fisherman you canny trust the Tories. And as the DUP are finding out with Johnson you canny trust this most untrustworthy of PMs.
Galamcennalath@11.38pm
The first cracks in the Union are starting to show.
Bob Mack says:
18 October, 2019 at 11:13 am
@Breeks,
There is also a reason he is raising these actions in a Scottish Court isnt tnere?
Maybe,… but the Cross Border Taxation is UK legislation.
I think a true Constitutional Test Case would have both feet planted in Scotland’s Sovereign Constitution and be seeking to undermine the integrity of the Union directly and unequivocally.
… but it’s not what Jo Maugham is doing so much as what Scotland the Nation isn’t doing which gets me so irate.
Maybe we need a Good Constitution Project…
I also listened to Jo Maugham on James O’Brien’s LBC show last week or the week before, and the question was asked, what next for the Good Law Project? The answer was taking the Government to Court over the tax breaks enjoyed by Uber, who avoid paying billions in VAT on fares, which black cabs have to pay.
It’s quite possible that Jo Maugham’s attack on Johnson’s Deal has it’s origins a predilection for Tax Law, specifically not Constitutional Law.
Mr Maugham is driving his own bus. We should be driving ours.
Can I add a reminder that Boris has stated on paper that he would put Scots in a Ghetto and Eliminate them.
He also put forward when 3,000 Scottish Civil Service jobs where to be transferred to Croyden in England that he would always invest in England before Scotland.
These are hard undisputed facts so how could any true Scot even contemplate for Boris and the Tory Fascist Party?
Again his insults to Muslims should ensure they reject him here in Scotland and of course the foreign workers we have here that he wants out shouldn’t be too keen on him.
Just the knuckle draggers of the OO and the Shills with one cheek on the Tory Gravy Train to vote blindly for the Butcher’s Apron.
@Breeks: Mr Maugham uses some of his specialised knowledge and skills in support of any good cause and to ensure the government acts properly in all areas.
So in the Uber case it was HMRC falling down on their duty to ensure compliance. In the prorogation case it was the Executive arm of Parliament seeking to act as dictators.
I admire the Good Law Project and am hugely grateful for what it does. Your comment sounds as if you don’t recognise or appreciate their work which is sad.
It should not be down to a private person to rectify the failings of democracy, of course. It should be done by politicians but they have been complacent about the role of the media in perverting public opinion and hence leading to the Brexit and British nationalist problems.
And now they are prepared to let the most scandalously incompetent and evil-thinking people to remain in power rather than take the necessary steps to protect us.
I am lost for words.
I think the CoS case will be a loser and think it should be as well. According to this in the Herald:
“The Advocate General has written a letter to the court on behalf of Commons Speaker John Bercow insisting the court “should not make any order which would inhibit the bringing of any matter before Parliament”. ”
and I agree. Parliaments make Law, and it’s up to them to make it competently. It’s up to the Courts to rule on existing Laws.
@ Breeks: I made a mistake in reading and responding to your last comment first. I have now seen yours of 10.46.
I will now get back to work!
@Breeks
“Mr Maugham is driving his own bus. We should be driving ours.”
Indeed, and Cherry is not only not in the case, but there’s not a tweet, not a peep out of her about it. Same for Murphy by the way, his bus is also his own – it might go the same way for a time but then it goes off in another direction.
@Dadszrmy
Maugham is doing exactly that. It is about existing law making the deal of Johnson illegal.
Joe at 11:38pm
I would respectfully ask you not to equate being on the Autism Spectrum with the word ‘deranged’.
Sarah says:
18 October, 2019 at 1:05 pm
@ Breeks: I made a mistake in reading and responding to your last comment first. I have now seen yours of 10.46.
I will now get back to work!
That’s OK Sarah, no harm done. I very much do appreciate the Good Law Project, and Jo Maugham too, but I’m just not sure he has a very big dog in race when it comes to Scotland’s Constitution and Independence… and that’s a pity.
Sad news about the Watt Brothers retail business going into administration.
@Bob Mack
The thing we should expect of our Courts is that they would come to the same decision on a matter, whether it was the Tories in Government, Labour, SNP, Screaming Lord Sutch or the Bonzo Dog Doodah Band.
And Courts shouldn’t prevent Parliaments from going about their Lawful business – which includes making, changing and repealing the law.
I doubt the 5pm decision will go Maugham’s way, and it won’t be a suspension either, unlike the NobOff case.
In December 2018 Ross Thomson ( currently under investigation by Tory party and whose investigation is in the running for the Guinness Book of Records longest enquiry over what should have been an open and shut case ) stated this about Theresa May’s deal
“Rubbish. The PM’s deal is a risk for the Union. It treats NI like a third country, leaves NI in the single market, leaves it under a foreign court and creates new customs checks on goods moving between GB and NI – A border down the Irish Sea. The @ScotTories used to oppose that”.
Now says to Theresa May’s Bojo’d deal
” Unlike May’s deal Boris’ deal allows NI to leave the single market arrangement with a simple vote in Stormont. The future of Northern Ireland will now be decided in Belfast, not Brussels”
( Ross, misses out the part that currently Stormont NOT sitting but obvs he is hopeful guess he should know what could happen what with him being a representative of NI and ensuring THEIR best interests….NI must be so proud to have someone like Ross representing them….luckily for us we have some SNP MP’s doing the same for Scotland as Ross does for NI constituents).
AND also now
“This deal is fundamentally different.
?The backstop is gone. Democratic consent included with the people of NI being in control of the laws they live by.
?NI will be in the UK customs territory rather than EU customs union. We will be able to strike UK wide free trade deals”.
Has Ross NO opinion on impact to Scotland…I am aware he represents NI constituency somewhere called Aberdeen I think,in the South part of NI I believe…. like the Scottish one…same spelling as Scottish Aberdeen too…but surely he has some sympathy for Scotland…okay aware NOT his responsibility BUT I mean has he NOTHING to say on the unfairness for Scotland who like his area NI voted Remain.
Hi Tweet in Dec 2018 on May’s deal mentions the Scots Tories should oppose that…not really his place to say that as a NI representative is it…on that I think his constituents in NI might have been a bit like…what you taking about Scots Tories for Ross …you represent NI…so get back on our case to be sure to be sure….
Ross Thomson NI MP for ( The Northern Irish) constituency of Aberdeen South ( same spelling as Scottish one)…delivering for the Northern Irish people….also a fanboy of Bojo and commarade to DUP ….not much of a supporter of the Scots…well he is a Unionist after all…a NI one too…as it clearly appears to be the case !
Begorragh begorragh…he’ll be gone tomorragh tomorragh…or at next GE to be sure..to be sure….
So rev the FM”is just sitting about with her thumb up her arse”,this site has lost the plot and in my eyes is just fools gold. Since the court case something has changed and it’s not for the better.
Your a very clever guy but your making a major error over the FM and what drives her,if I’m wrong and she fails to deliver I will return and admit the error of my ways…..the question is if she does deliver will you be a big enough man to do likewise.
Remember Johnson when he became PM styled himself with the new title Minister for the Union.
It’s a bit like Erdogan of Turkey giving himself the Title of Minister for Peace.
I wonder what the new Unit for the Union he established in his government think about his deal.
Since when did we let our movement be dictated by the views of the press?
Stu … you are the press…
“the new deal or no deal” from the tweet, is an illogical stance, you can’t ask parliament that …
I am presenting a bill for the New Deal or No Deal.
parliament … Yes!
erm … yes to the new deal or yes to the No deal?
Parliament … No?
erm …
wait …
erm, what… …
eh?
Cubby says:
18 October, 2019 at 11:57 am
“David Linden SNP MP speaking very well on the BBC reminding viewers that the SNP did put forward a compromise way back in 2016 that Scotland would stay in the single market and customs union and it was totally ignored by the Torries…”
Dads Army and I were discussing that last night and at 7:11 this morning I suggested that the SNP should consider proposing an amendment to the Brexit Bill to that effect.
Such an amendment would be very bad news for all the branch offices and would be a stick to beat them with whichever way they voted regardless of what the results were.
And if successful I think it would leave Scotland and the Independence movement in a better place than they will be in the event of the bill passing or falling unamended.
Odd that the post referenced above spent some time in moderation.
When I have all feed back I will make a comment,The only thing I can say was YES last time and will be YES this time.Ready to fight if necessary
I’m seriously going to fall out with the SNP. I have this twat Tommy Shepphard on my FB feed and five minutes ago, he was bragging about voting down Johnsons deal and continuing to stop Brexit. Not a single word about independence. They’re fucking charlatans, the lot of them and I’m beginning to get very angry with them.
I never did foresee that I would get pissed off with Wings. I will probably donate for a fifth time should another crowdfunder emerge.
But maybe there should be a guarantee that it wont be spaffed up a coutroom wall.
“Tommy Sheppard MP
?Verified account @TommySheppard
Today’s battle is won. The campaign goes on to stop #Brexit and defend Scotland’s right to choose.”
“and defend Scotland’s right to choose.