Kept in the dark
The Scotsman and Herald both carry stories today reporting an Ipsos-MORI poll which found that only 14% of voters considered themselves to be “well-informed” about the referendum debate, and that two-thirds of the electorate had difficulty in discerning whether what they were being told was true or not.
Since this site’s entire reason for existence is to demonstrate that what much of the No campaign and the Scottish media tells people is either distorted, misleading or flat-out untrue, we can’t say those findings surprise us much. But there was an interesting nugget buried in the poll data which the papers didn’t pick up on.
The table above is a little confusing until you work out that it’s only meant to be read vertically, not horizontally. In addition to questions about the information they were receiving respondents were asked the referendum question, which – skewed by a Labour-heavy sample – produced a fairly unremarkable topline result of Y31 N55 DK14. But it’s the breakdown within each category (the vertical columns) that’s fascinating.
YES VOTERS
Very or fairly well informed: 74%
Not very well or not at all informed: 25%
NO VOTERS
Very or fairly well informed: 51%
Not very well or not at all informed: 48%
DON’T KNOWS
Very or fairly well informed: 34%
Not very well or not at all informed: 61%
In other words, the poll backs up what several previous ones have found – that the more informed people feel they are, the more likely they are to vote Yes.
It’s no surprise the No campaign is desperate to obfuscate, mislead and avoid debate. Their best hope of winning is to keep people confused, ill-informed and frightened. But as Scots begin to pay much more attention as the vote draws closer, it remains to be seen whether they can maintain that chokehold of ignorance for eight more months.
This is one fight that we are going to win despite sneaky underhand tactics
by the no camp and their partners in the media.
i don’t know who will be reading their propaganda after 18th sept
The naysayers motto certainly seems to be “If you’renot scared we’renot doing our job. But we can all play that game;
http://thescottishscaremonger.blogspot.co.uk
Fantastic spot as always, Your Reverence.
I don’t comment on these pages much but if you don’t mind I’d like to sneak in and congratulate you on your tireless work. Your site is my first port of call for anything regarding the independence debate (though I check up on Better Together a few times a week just in case I’ve missed something – haven’t yet).
Keep up the good fight. 🙂
Rev Stu,
Please forgive my typos in the post above. The virtual keyboard let me down. The Request Deletion didn’t work so I’m reduced to a public plea for forgiveness.
It also follows that the less informed the less any person is likely to vote.
I would go further than that. There is no reason for any person with a genuine interest and intention to vote to be uninformed as all the information he or she might need is readily available.
Anybody a few months from now saying they do not have enough information does not have any real interest, is unlikely to vote and can be discounted.
Our bigger problem is those who are ill informed – those who have swallowed the nonsense and imagine they are adequately or well informed. Those in this group have to be confronted with the fact that they have been lied to. When this has been accepted many of them will furiously change sides.
O/T Some of the media have tumbled to the fact that the odds on YES are shortening. Ladbrokes are offering bets again,having taken fright last week. It is 4/1 a YES vote; 9/1 over 55% YES and a steal – 5/6 YES over 39%.
The question is, given the almost daily deluge of anti-independence stories on the BBC and MSM and the relatively few pro-indy stories (are there any?), how are these people still confused/unaware? Are they just not believing what they are bombarded with by the BBC/MSM on a daily basis? Why are they feeling uninformed? Do they not trust what they are being told but can’t find the alternative views?
Yes West Lothian (Livingston) is about to have 10000 Aye Right leaflets printed.
We’ve been putting out those that we had on street stalls and they’ve made things much easier when pointing out alternative sources of information.
With over 700000 unique visitors to this site and 100000 to Business for Scotland, word will be spreading, but we must nudge things along now.
It is also our intention to make our own posters directing people to the two sites and then putting them on posts, trees, fences etc. throughout the county; anywhere people will see it while out walking or in their cars; places where rush hour traffic is crawling.
My brother is getting a T-shirt with several website logos on the front and back made up, so Rev., I hope you have no issues with copyright.
I see Labour won the election again.
I wrote a blog post about this poll earlier, and I’ve had to amend it because it’s only just dawned on me that it’s exactly the same poll as the last Ipsos-Mori poll from just after the White Paper – that’s why the voting intention figures are identical. The fieldwork dates were way back in late November/early December. A few extra questions must have been tacked on for the Law Society.
“I see Labour won the election again.”
I knew there was something I’d forgotten to mention. Edited in, ta.
“My brother is getting a T-shirt with several website logos on the front and back made up, so Rev., I hope you have no issues with copyright.”
Heck no, go for it. When I get a minute I’m going to add a resource library to the Reference section, with graphics for leaflets and suchlike to download for printing.
While its good to see further evidence to support this, it also seems a fairly obvious point. In order to take the decision to vote yes, in general you need to have done a bit of thinking and a bit of research. Whereas the less informed you feel, the less likely you are to be willing to take the big step of independence.
The big fight, then, is about how we can make sure that more people are being informed, against the wishes of the No camp and their friends in the media.
“Fantastic spot as always, Your Reverence.”
The credit properly belongs, as so often, to an alert reader.
You continue to excel at this stuff Rev. As usual, well done!
It would be interesting to know whether the Better Terror campaign has any effect on people who do go out deliberately to make themselves more informed. Do they lap it up?
Anyway, it might be useful if there were a nice wee lace curtain-style pro-Indy website specifically designed for the middle-aged lady in the dental surgery waiting room (as mentioned by Adam L in a comment in Unionist of the Year So Far), with links to Yes Saga and so on. (I don’t know whether there’s a Yes Saga, or indeed Saga No, or Don’t Saga Know.)
From Time magazine 13-1-2014, page21
Separation Anxieties
Scotland will hold a referendum in September to decide whether to split from the U.K. The secessionists will almost certainly lose. In Spain, a restless Catalonia aims to hold a similar vote in November; Madrid may not let it happen.
The US MSM is taking up the good fight.
I was born wanting Indepedence . I do not need to be persuaded to vote YES ! However after 67 yrs , reading these sights Wings , Newsnet and Bella Calledonia I have much more knowledge about how far the. No Campaign will go ! So I have more Fire in my belly and know that there are lots of friends feel the same way after reading these post . Thanks Rev !
Brilliant stuff again Rev. Surpising conversation today with one of my brother in laws.
Govan man and labour most of his days but nearly out yessed me while talking ! He was really getting quite emotional about things, Came home delighted.
O/T a wee bit.
Got a BT newspaper/leaflet through the door this week. The deliverer was either fly or scared as she started posting them at the top of the close stairs so that I was not able to challenge any of the rubbish in it (mostly about the UK NHS) as she came back down the stairs.
A man I was chatting with today told me he couldn’t understand why Mr Cameron won’t debate with Mr Salmond.I told him it’s because it would attract too much attention for the NO camps liking,and that the last thing they want is for folk to start asking them any questions about what a NO vote will mean.It got him thinking.
Aye Right – just a thought; have the various templates been updated for Dr Bateman’s new address, and has Wealthy Nation been added?
@ Schiehallion x 2 – No SAGA but there is a vibrant wrinkly and blue rinse Facebook page for auld yins. Supply your own lace curtains. 😉 Its ok I qualify.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Scottish-Pensioners-for-Independence/224493927614873
Well spotted, Rev.
I’m also finding quite a few folk, who were either ‘No’ or ‘Don’t Know’, are asking me all sorts of questions since start of the New Year. From defence, to fisheries, and basically, to the simple reason of …why, and what I mean by that, is not a ‘…WHY!!!!; what I mean is a soft and questioning ‘Why? How do you see it?’
And once I explain, that Scotland does not have the powers to counteract against the might of London; that everything gravitates towards London, and put simply, unless Scotland has its own complete powers to compete, counter, and do what is best for the people of Scotland, and not for the people of the SE of England, then you can see the confirmation of what I am telling them is simply what they needed to hear, and thus, confirm their own thinking.
It is happening! There is now a strong undercurrent of awareness within the nation. The Scottish people do want to know what is best for them, and all they need, is for it to be confirmed to them in the simplest layman terms.
If they ask about defence and a navy, I tell them Scotland will have 12,000 personnel, and in the future, we will build our own navy. With £2.5 Billion pound to spend each year, we can build our own fleet since the dearest ship is about £300 million per vessel. We can also build cheaper ships at half the cost. If we build 3 or 4 of these every couple years, then it keeps our shipbuilders in a job; we will have a proper navy, a fleet of typhoon fighters or Eurofighters, and our regiments back within our hands and kept strong, instead of facing cuts all the time.
If they ask about oil, I tell them that there is £1 Billion (at least) in the North Sea, and at least 4 times that in the Atlantic. We will invest that oil in renewables, and thus create a new industry. We will also begin building and enhancing that technology to be sold to other nations.
If they ask about currency union. I tell them that of course we will be in a currency union with the rUK for the foreseeable future, but overall, at somepoint in the next few decades, we will probably create our own currency.
If they ask about the EU. I just tell them that no one has ever been kicked out of the EU. I simply put it to them, ‘Do you think the EU would kick out the Scots?’ You can see the logical answer in their faces. They know we won’t be kicked out! Not with all the resources that we have.
They ask about tax rises. I tell them, ‘Yes, of course, we will have tax rises’, but then again, so will the rUK. Do you honestly believe that the rUK won’t ever again increase taxes? Of course they will! So will an independent Scotland. Get over it!
Then at the end of it. I tell them to imagine the next 20 years under constant Tory rule, with everything gravitating towards London, with the Scottish NHS being privatised, Tuition Fees re-introduced, the debt continually going up, future wars, no new powers for Holyrood, etc. I tell them all of that and then some.
After all these simple questions are answered, you can see the cogs whirring away as they quietly think it over.
With no version of their ‘White Paper’ (or as I now call it, the ‘Black Paper‘, since it will be a document designed to have the Scots sell their souls in a Faustian Pact should they vote ‘No’), I just can’t see how the BT mob can sell their side of the argument.
These days, I know just a handful of people that are still committed to the ‘No’ cause. Is BT bricking it …you bet they are!
I noticed that in yesterdays on-line edition of the Courier.
I just stated that there are no excuses for not knowing enough as there is loads and loads of information available on the Internet and not to rely on the one-side reporting from the media.
Then in today’s Dunfermline Press you get a 76 old hoping the “Scotland does not vote to leave the UK”.
I mean. 76. She and her generation are one of the ones that have really benefitted from the the Devolved Parliament.
May be must to old to change her mind.
@GrahamB
That’s just standard leafletting procedure, for reasons of personal safety.
Yup leafleting has its risks. I was standing outside Helensburgh Central the other night asking passers by if they would like to receive a leaflet. A couple of chaps from the Base passed by. One was polite the other suggested I stick it where the dun doesn’t shine. The vast majority of folks were polite but I don’t fancy getting caught up a close with any extremists so I start from the top.
Having said all that I have a greater fear from the viscous letter box flaps that peeps seem to use these days.
Heh, according to the polls weighting, Scottish Labour enjoy more support than the SNP languishing on 34%..
You can read it horizontally, too, it just means the percentages haven’t been computed in advance, but that’s easy enough to do:
Very well informed: Yes 72 (52%), No 54 (39%), DK 13 (9%); fairly very well informed: Yes 160 (38%), No 224 (53%), DK 36 (9%); not very well informed: Yes 64 (19%), No 212 (62%), DK 64 (19%); not at all informed: Yes 16 (17%), No 55 (59%), DK 23 (24%).
Had a few conversations this week with my customers asking why I was wearing a Yes t.shirt and Yes jacket. Told them why and was met with a few rolls of the eyes, a couple of “we’ll never manage” and one who said I was a forkin idiot to want independence. I gave them a few reasons why we should vote Yes and was met with “ach politics is boring and they’re all the effin same”. And not one of them had read a thing so I told them to check out Wings. Lots of work to do.
“But if Your Holiness puts too much faith in the tales the English tell and will not give sincere belief to all this, nor refrain from favouring them to our prejudice, then the slaughter of bodies, the perdition of souls, and all the other misfortunes that will follow, inflicted by them ” Deceleration of Arbroath 1320… Did not realise that our ancestors had to combat the work of the BBC even all that time ago…..
It depends where you live. The Borders tend to be the lest to support Independence but the further North the more support grows. If you live in an area of the country where the is a higher support for Independence. The Polls appear relatively unrealistic in SNP dominated areas. They see the meters running every day for the last 50 years, have confidence and know the continued magnitude. The further North, the less likelihood of being Polled. The Polling/PR companies are based in the South. The only number on their speed dial will be 0141 or 0131. That leads to disparity in the Polls.
The people who will decide the Referendum, are the one’e who normally, never vote or engage with the political system. The disullusiohed and disaffected. (especially with the political system). They will turn out as a protest vote, will vote with their heart and vote Yes. The higher
the turnout the higher the Yes Vote.
If it had been a UK Referendum, it would have been a resounding Yes, because of the lying propaganda,about Scotland the Unionist’s Parties (small number in term of total population) have been churning out since 1928. That would have been brilliant. Karma. Unelected Cameron having to debate, for entertainment sake, pure comedy Gold.
Why is there an advert for the Scottish Law Society on the IPsos MORI website. The Law Society is supposed to be obeying the Law and upholding ‘the ‘right of Scottish sovereignty’ and right to a separate Legal system, forever. It can never be changed unless it is negotiated by representation of the people – under the Terms agreed of the 1707 Union. A conflict of interest? or bias.
It’s important to point out that the party support figures here do not relate to the 2011 election but to current party support – therefore the ‘I see Labour won the election’ comments aren’t correct.
“party support figures here do not relate to the 2011 election but to current party support”
The SNP still lead comfortably in Holyrood polls. You’d have to cherry-pick very carefully indeed to find one matching the weighting used here.
not so sure about that to be quite honest with you – see http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/01/snp-slipped-in-the-polls/
“not so sure about that to be quite honest with you – see http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/01/snp-slipped-in-the-polls/“
Slipped, but still comfortably in front. (Further ahead of Labour, incidentally, than Labour has been ahead of the Tories in UK polling for months.) The Ipsos poll weighted Labour above the SNP, which is absurd.
the point is that they aren’t comfortably ahead accordingto this poll (and the even more recent YouGov poll). As far as I’m aware mori don’t weight for political allegiance so it’s incorrect to say that they have weighted it – the nos. for each party reflect how respondents would vote in an immediate holyrood election, something which yougov also found. Also the data is not evidence that the more you find out about indepednce the more favourable you are towards it – this might be the case but that can’t be concluded from these findings, only that Yes supporters are more informed.