Wings Over Scotland

Professor John Curtice, a psephologist at Strathclyde University and the Scottish media's go-to guy for all political analysis, is often attacked by "cybernats" for alleged partiality in favour of Labour. This blog sighs in despair whenever online nationalists automatically scream "Biased!" at anyone who doesn't come onscreen in a kilt and Jimmy hat singing "Flower Of Scotland", but it has to be said that Prof. Curtice has done himself no favours at all this week.

As co-author of a report published yesterday by the Electoral Reform Society Scotland, the good professor has launched what the Scotsman today calls a "strongly worded attack" on Holyrood's proportional electoral system, under which the SNP won a majority of seats (53%) on 45% of the vote. As we noted yesterday, it's odd that the ERSS has chosen now to demand changes to the system, given that when Labour/Lib Dem coalitions had Holyrood majorities in 1999 and 2003, they also commanded less than 50% of the vote (45.5% between them in 2003, 49.5% in 1999), and nobody seemed to have a problem with that.

Now, to be fair to Prof. Curtice, the Scotsman does put words in his mouth, in their characteristic manner. The headline of the piece claims that the report brands the Holyrood system "a failure" (a description which we can't find anywhere in it) and also asserts that the report demands the system "should be changed to prevent one party winning an overall majority", which is something of an exaggeration – Curtice only actually says that the objective of the proposed changes is to make a majority "more difficult", not impossible.

But by fronting such a suspiciously-timed report, the Professor and the ERSS have allowed their credibility to be undermined by exactly the sort of distortion the Unionist media specialises in, and in doing so have left themselves dreadfully open to allegations of political colour. The society claims their motivation is honourable, and aimed only at promoting a fuller range of political views:

"We are convinced our democracy would work better with more parties in the system, so that more voices are represented and heard and that power is shared, checked and balanced."

…but the current method of electing the Scottish Parliament is perfectly capable of delivering that – in 2003, for example, the Greens got 7 seats, the Scottish Socialists won 6 seats and two independents also secured seats, those three groups between them providing almost 12% of the Parliament's MSPs. (For comparison, imagine the UK Parliament having 78 MPs from outwith the three main parties – the actual number is 28, with only one of those representing an English constituency.)

The simple fact is, the electorate could have elected a wider range of MSPs if they'd wanted to, as they have done in the past. Instead, they overwhelmingly chose the SNP. That's democracy, because in practice almost no democracy on Earth is perfectly proportional. This blog has no objections to bringing the Scottish Parliament closer to that ideal, but it's decidedly odd that supposedly neutral organisations like the ERSS didn't feel the need to suddenly press for it until the SNP won a majority.

We're absolutely confident, however, that the author of the above quote – the society's director Willie Sullivan – also being a Labour councillor in his day job (a fact the Scotsman inexplicably neglects to mention) is entirely coincidental.

PS The replacement PR method proposed by the ERSS report is one devised by the French mathematician André Sainte-Laguë. His most famous work is the calculation that it was scientifically impossible for bumblebees to be able to fly.

We've just caught up with an interesting piece over at Bella Caledonia from a few days ago, in which Robin McAlpine, editor of the non-aligned Scottish Left Review, heralds that publication's "independence issue" with an overview of the Scottish political left wing's position on the subject. We'll let you read it for yourself, but the takeaway soundbite is this one:

"roughly no-one seems to have been persuaded out of a pre-existing pro-independence position but more and more people are moving in the other direction"

The true nature of the modern Labour Party seems to have taken a while to fully dawn on the left, in the UK but particularly in Scotland, and it's intriguing to see a slow but perceptible shift begin to take place, especially with regard to trade unions. The fight between Unionists and the independence movement for the heart and soul of socialism seems to be very much on.

The source is Lord Foulkes so it's probably best not to have it tattooed onto your forehead or anything, but the Express reports today a possible twist in the referendum saga that, if it turns out to be true, would be a genuinely surprising and interesting development. The thirsty peer notes that the Scotland Bill in its current form is a "dead parrot" – given that it's likely to be rejected by Holyrood if not significantly enhanced, something for which the coalition has no apparent appetite – and that as such it's likely to be abandoned altogether, with pressure of time in the House Of Lords cited as the face-saving reason.

It's extremely hard to imagine the Unionist parties rallying around a flag of "no change at all" in the referendum, so it may yet be that the devo-max option isn't as dead as it currently seems. Keep watching this space.

"Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said minimum pricing was not a magic bullet, but a part of the solution."
(BBC, 1 Nov 2011)

"Sturgeon said a minimum price was 'not a magic bullet'"
(Alcohol Policy UK, 1 Nov 2011)

"Minimum pricing is not a magic bullet, but it is a huge step in the right direction."
(Nicola Sturgeon, Evening Times, 8 Sep 2011)

"[Nicola Sturgeon] doesn’t and never has believed that minimum pricing is the magic bullet solution."
(Holyrood magazine, 15 Oct 2010)

"We should not see any particular initiative as a magic bullet — we need a strong package of measures. That initiative was simply another tool in the box."
(Nicola Sturgeon, Findlaw UK, 30 Sep 2010)

"While [minimum pricing] is not a magic bullet, it would effectively target problem drinkers and help them reduce their alcohol consumption."
(Nicola Sturgeon, STV News, 31 Aug 2010)

"While it's not a magic bullet, we believe that minimum pricing would effectively target problem drinkers."
(Nicola Sturgeon, Newsnet Scotland, 9 June 2010)

"The SNP seem to think that minimum unit pricing is some sort of silver bullet."
(Richard Simpson, Labour Shadow Health Minister, 14 Nov 2011)

Sigh.

Lots of stuff going on in the papers on Saturday and Sunday which we didn't have time to feature individually. The Daily Record covers Lord Forsyth's latest bright idea, namely that SNP MSPs should be forced to pay for the referendum should it be judged unlawful, a bizarre notion given that if the referendum were to be so judged it's hard to see how it could go ahead at all.

Conversely, the New Statesman runs a balanced and realistic piece on "Who owns the Scottish independence referendum?", identifying some of the possible legal implications but also coming to a practical conclusion about what will actually happen. Meanwhile – in fact from earlier last week but having hitherto escaped our attention – Aidan O'Neill QC pens a rather less balanced and less realistic view for The Guardian on the same subject, which ends up insisting that not only would any referendum have to be run by Westminster but that it would have to be conducted across the UK. The article is strikingly detached from the real world, but is notable for some excellent and highly-informed reader comments. (After the first one.)

The Scottish Left Review has a somewhat daunting but detailed account of the conduct of Labour-led Glasgow City Council, in the light of Newsnet Scotland's revelation that the head of the City Building ALEO (arm's-length external organisation), set up by the disgraced former council leader Steven Purcell and the subject of allegations of cronyism and patronage, is set to receive a £615,000 payoff funded by the taxpayer after just five years' service to the company.

Scotland On Sunday features the story that Labour flak-magnet Tom Harris (of whom more shortly) is trying to push a so-called "Clarity Act" through Westminster in order to grant the UK Parliament de facto control over the referendum, based on Harris' erroneous claim that "The Scottish Government has a mandate but it is for a specific question on independence."

The same paper also details Michael Portillo's advocation of full fiscal autonomy for Scotland, the first time (so far as we're aware) that a significant Tory figure has called for a version of "devo max" as their preferred option for Scotland's constitutional future. These are interesting times.

There's a mildly remarkable story on the BBC website today. While the Herald reports that John Swinney has "thwarted" the UK coalition government's plans to drastically slash public-sector pensions, the BBC covers an SNP claim, based on the UK Government's own GERS statistics, that Scotland is better placed to afford pensions and welfare than the UK.

One might imagine that when responding to this claim, the Scotland Office would be armed with its own interpretation of the facts and figures with which to refute the SNP's assertions. Instead, what we actually get is an extraordinary playground outburst in which the Scottish Government is accused of "Flat Earth economics", and an increasingly hysterical rant in which an unnamed spokesman rages:

"Their argument completely fails to explain how much pensions and welfare would be and who would administer or pay for them or exactly how a separate Scotland with a smaller tax base [1], an ageing population [2] and a bigger ratio of public sector workers and welfare claimants [3] could possibly lead to things being better."

…to which the answer would presumably be "for the precise reasons outlined in the UK Government's own figures – Scotland spends less on those things than the UK does, and could therefore afford to be more generous, even if you discount the argument that an independent Scotland would be better off than at present."

The Scotland Office is funded by the taxpayer. We're not sure it should be getting this angry about what would appear by any interpretation to be positive news for Scotland.

[1] In fact Scotland contributes 9.4% of UK taxation with 8.4% of the population.

[2] Also true of the UK as a whole, not just Scotland.

[3] This is, of course, already factored into the GERS figures.

We hitherto haven't bothered adding the Caledonian Mercury to the Wings over Scotland link bar, because it appeared to be all but dead. After a promising start, updates had slowed to a trickle on Stewart Kirkpatrick's bold attempt at creating a new online-only Scottish quality newspaper staffed by proper journalists from all points on the political spectrum, and most of the ones that did appear – in the politics section at least – were in the form of the toe-curling "Friday song" posts.

However, we may have been a little hasty, as the CalMerc this week ran a really interesting and exclusive piece by Hamish Macdonnell about some parts of the UK which are already governed under arrangements strikingly similar to what most people would describe as "devo max". The Isle Of Man, for example, has full fiscal autonomy and cedes control of only immigration and defence to the UK, a status that you suspect the SNP would consider a very acceptable step along the path to full independence, and which has plainly not resulted in the Isle's sky falling in.

But enough spoilers. You can read the full story here.

The debate about whether an independent Scotland which joined or remained in the EU would be forced to adopt the Euro – and therefore be liable for a multi-billion-pound contribution to the eurozone bailout fund, the subject of much Unionist scaremongering in recent days – would appear to have reached a definitive end. A letter in today's Scotsman from Drew Scott, Professor of European Union Studies at the University of Edinburgh, backs up a blog on Thursday from SNP activist and EU law graduate Stephen Noon by noting that regardless of current rules which say new members must join the currency, the EU also stipulates that no member can do so without first being a member of the Exchange Rate Mechanism for two years.

ERM participation, however, is not compulsory for new members. And therefore any country joining the EU – whether as a successor state or from scratch – which doesn't want to join the Euro can simply elect to remain outwith the ERM, and therefore put off joining the Euro indefinitely. Noon points to the specific chapter and verse in EU regulations, and Professor Scott backs his conclusion. Scotland CAN join the EU but stay out of the Euro. The argument would seem to be over.

The latest Scottish circulation figures for UK print media are out, and perhaps to nobody’s great surprise they show a continuing sharp decline, as well as the breaking of a significant barrier – for the first time, total daily sales of newspapers in Scotland have slumped below a million, at 986,657 (down from 1,078,544 in the previous period).

The Herald and Scotsman both show heavy falls (13.2% and 8.3% respectively), and while the Herald still holds a clear lead over its broadsheet rival the gap has closed slightly, from 11,000 to 8000. The story is different for the Sunday versions, with the Sunday Herald (which underwent a dramatic format change during the period, from a traditional paper to a magazine-style offering) losing a whopping 31% (down to just 29,000), while Scotland On Sunday lost a more modest 9%, down to 46,000, doubling its lead over its rival from 9000 to 18,000.

Over in tabloid territory things are much the same, with the Daily Record dropping 9%, losing further ground to the Scottish Sun which dropped just 6% and now leads its once-dominant rival by a hefty 47,000 copies a day. (More than the entire daily circulation of the Herald.)

There are falls across the board (the bizarre Scotophobia of the Independent now finds just 7,000 daily takers north of the border), with one exception – the closure of the News Of The World has seen huge jumps for most of the tabloid Sundays. The People leaps 85%, the Sunday Mirror 83% and the Star more than doubles its sales, with a 120% boost taking it past both SoS and the Sunday Herald to just under 60,000.

Perhaps the most interesting thing, though, is that the traditional Sunday tabloids of choice in Scotland – the Sunday Post and the Sunday Mail – see nothing of this benefit. The Mail picks up just 3%, and the Post actually manages to drop 1% despite the loss of their major tabloid competition.

However, the big two now comfortably outsell everything else put together (587,000 for the Mail and Post combined, versus 441,000 for the other 11 titles), because many of the NOTW’s readers haven’t moved anywhere else but have simply stopped buying a Sunday paper entirely (or are buying one fewer) – of around 240,000 people who used to buy it, increases in the other Sundays amount to only 70,000 or so, a huge loss to the overall sector of 170,000 sales a week.

The oddest anomaly remains the performance of the two Daily Mail titles, which both fall but narrowly stay above six figures, and outsell their respective daily and Sunday equivalents on the Herald and Scotsman added together. This perhaps tells us more about the Mail’s true position on the tabloid-broadsheet spectrum than anything more significant, but it’s still a jarring statistic in a Tory-hostile nation.

What political conclusions can we draw from this? In the absence of website readership figures, perhaps not many. But it seems clear that the attention of the Scottish public is being drawn increasingly away from printed media and towards the internet. That’s an area where the nationalists have several years of a head start in terms of presence – the online communities of even staunchly Unionist papers like the Scotsman and Record are dominated by the pro-SNP camp – and it’ll be interesting to see if the opposition can do anything to catch up.

The backlash against Iain Gray's ill-judged and mendacious valedictory speech to the Scottish Labour conference continues today, as Sue Varley over on Newsnet Scotland presents what's billed as an impartial outsider's take on the supposedly mutual loathing between Labour and the SNP. While NNS itself is far from neutral, she finds what I suspect most neutral observers would – that the much-maligned army of "cybernats" is on the whole far more civilly behaved, and more committed to at least attempting reasoned and evidence-based debate, than Labour's own online activist battalions. A measured and worthwhile read.

There's a strong and thoughtful piece from new Better Nation editor Kirsty Connell today about how the opposition in Scotland is failing the fight against poverty, and others are picking up the slack. It's heartening to know that there are at least a few people outside the SNP turning away from what Connell describes with dismay as "the broken tactic of opposition for opposition’s sake".

Just as Hamish McDonnell catches up (for the Independent) with the Scotsman's unattributed three-day-old story about the possibility of the Unionist parties combining to hold their own Westminster-run independence referendum, the Herald once again acts like something approaching a proper newspaper and manages to get an actual on-the-record quote from an actual MP – the Shadow Scottish Secretary, no less – comprehensively rubbishing the idea. As you were, then.