A poverty of imagination
We don’t follow many Unionists on social media, because you end up wasting your day arguing pointlessly with a lot of people who are never going to change their minds and getting in a bad mood. But we’re told they were all very excited about an article in yesterday’s Daily Record.
Penned by the paper’s political editor Davie Clegg, it’s a long diatribe about how the fall in oil revenues has created a black hole which now means Scotland is – stand by for a surprise! – too wee and too poor to be independent.
So far so meh – it’s not like it’s the first time we’ve heard that record played, after all. But as you can see from the image above, there’s also quite an interesting challenge printed in giant capitals at the foot of the page. We’re not in the Scottish Government, but it’s a rainy Saturday so we thought we might have a go.
The first thing to note is that there are actually very few “calculations” in the article. In fact, there’s basically just one, stretched out into a needlessly complicated graphic:
Alert readers will spot that it’s just a really long-winded way of saying “Projected oil revenues are lower than the White Paper anticipated a year ago”.
That’s unquestionably true (although it’s always worth keeping in mind that absolutely nobody ever has any idea what the oil price will be even a few weeks from now, let alone years, and everyone else’s predictions were at least as wrong as the SNP’s).
But analysing Scotland’s economy isn’t just a matter of seeing what the oil price is. In March this year the BBC reported that:
Professor Brian Ashcroft of the institute told the Financial Times:
In other words, while cheap oil damages Scotland’s balance sheet in an immediate and obvious way that makes for dramatic newspaper headlines, the positive knock-on effects on the rest of the economy from less expensive fuel more than outweigh it.
Companies stay in business that might otherwise have gone bust because of energy or transport costs, and consumers also have more money in their pockets. The pump price of petrol has fallen from a peak average of 148p a litre in April 2012 to 111p now, a huge drop of 25% (despite the common perception that the price never comes down when oil falls).
When oil is cheaper more people are employed, non-oil tax receipts are higher, welfare spending is lower and shops sell more stuff. Oil revenue, then, is a double-edged sword. So what else has the Record got?
Not much, it transpires.
“The financial fundamentals that would underpin independence have got drastically worse in the 13 months since the vote. The plummeting price of oil has effectively destroyed any pretence that a break from the UK would not involve major costs.”
We’ve just seen that that’s simplistic guff. But almost the entire article is exclusively about the oil price, with the same fact – oil receipts are down – being rephrased and repeated in different ways. Eventually, towards the end, we get a little bit of variation:
“If Swinney had been on the winning side of the referendum, he would currently be preparing the first budget of an independent Scotland. It would have involved a lot of pain.
His stark choice would have been to slash spending, hike up taxes or borrow vast amounts of cash at artificially high interest rates on the international money markets.”
Wait a minute – artificially high interest rates? Why? The cost of borrowing has never been lower than it is now. Indeed, for governments it’s effectively more or less zero.
“To make matters worse, the figures used above assume no negative impact on Scotland’s economy from renegotiating EU membership and implementing new currency arrangements.”
What new currency arrangements? Why would there be a negative impact from EU negotiations? We’re given no reasoning for either hypothetical.
“They also fail to take account of the costs of setting up all the instruments of a new state like a tax system, a welfare department, a debt management agency, a security and intelligence agency, a Scottish defence headquarters, a pensions regulator, transport organisations such as the DVLA and a passport office.”
The total cost of the administrative transition to independence was estimated last year by Professor Patrick Dunleavy of the London School of Economics at £650 million. That’s spread across several years, and in government terms is peanuts. For perspective, it’s roughly the amount of money wasted by a single Scottish Labour council on building some schools via the cripplingly expensive PFI method.
After that, the article goes back to oil again and then finishes. There’s not a mention of the financial upside of independence, the billions that could be saved on defence and wars, or any of the advantages of an economy not geared to damaging ideological austerity imposed by Tory governments that look set to rule the UK for a generation. It’s the worst-case scenario for all the negatives, and no case at all for the positives.
The Record, of course, is a tabloid newspaper not generally inclined towards nuanced in-depth analysis. And we already know that its grasp of both detail and arithmetic are somewhat shaky. But what we’ve covered here are not complicated concepts.
It’s not hard to understand that a low oil price has benefits as well as downsides. It’s not difficult to see how Scotland’s economy could be better run if it was the sole concern of its own government, rather than it being one small corner of a much bigger nation. And we’re sure even the Daily Record would agree that the mere fact of being free of Conservative rule would in itself be a huge boon in all sorts of ways.
The article serves no other purpose than to throw a bit of red meat the way of the paper’s core audience of diehard Unionists. But there’s an interesting stat on that too:
We wonder if there’s any chance that the Record will notice before it’s too late.
Is the Editor of the Daily Record a flautist, by any chance.
There will be those who you described as the die hard Record Readers but they like us pensioners will eventually die off. Everything changes it sometimes takes a while but I doubt many youngsters now buy a paper most normally have their faces glued to their phones where their entire life resides. So I imagine just like we went from vinyl to CD’s to downloads, from VHS to CD and now to downloads, kindles from books, newspapers will vanish. For myself it cannot happen fast enough.
‘because you end up wasting your day arguing pointlessly with a lot of people who are never going to change their minds’
If only everyone thought like that.
I would much rather pay attention to what Professor Brian Ashcroft has to say on the Scottish economy than David Clegg and the Daily Record. The former knows what he is talking about.
What is the purpose of the Daily Record. It’s only purpose is to drag Scotland down.
It’s quite sad really when you think about it.
Nice job putting things in perspective, Stu.
The other fallacy – and particularly in Kevin Hague’s numbers – is the frankly fatal assumption that indy Scot Gov income and expenditure would be identical to what it is now. This is the argument the unionists use to “prove” that Scotland is “better off in the UK”.
It’s total bollocks, because GERS is merely a snapshot of past income and expenditure under the current devolution settlement. Using this to “forecast” FFA or independent Scotland’s budget is about as valid as using Germany or Belgium’s income/expenditure – i.e not valid at all. But even if it were, what would be the point of independence if we spent (squandered) income exactly the same way as successive Westminster governments have?
The other thing to note about GERS figures is that, as Prof Andrew Hughes-Hallet pointed out, is that a large chunk of the “expenditure” is attributed Scotland as “spent of behalf of” as opposed to actually spent in Scotland. Anyone who has ever compiled a project budget will recognise that for what it is; a fudge.
Nobody is saying that the low oil price hasn’t affected things, as indeed you point out sometimes in positive ways. But since this is the unionist’s only “truthy” economic argument, it’s the one we’ll be hearing over and over again ad nauseum.
“It’s total bollocks, because GERS is merely a snapshot of past income and expenditure under the current devolution settlement. Using this to “forecast” FFA or independent Scotland’s budget is about as valid as using Germany or Belgium’s income/expenditure – i.e not valid at all. But even if it were, what would be the point of independence if we spent (squandered) income exactly the same way as successive Westminster governments have?”
Precisely, which is what I’m getting at in the fifth-from-last paragraph. If only a couple of guys had mentioned stuff like that repeatedly on a website and in some sort of small book, eh?
The Daily Record, scaring pensioners for a generation.
Haven’t they made themselves hostage to fortune: what happens if the oil price ramps up?
Will the Record revert back to WW2, a force for good, most successful union ever (or evel), becoming foreigners, …?
As the article shows (through links to proper economic argument) the Scottish economy is more than simply the price of oil.
It’s really just a quick, painting-by-numbers unionist opinion piece. But, as it’s the Daily Record, they were using crayons.
That last graph is excellent. The symmetry of the Record’s sales declining while the SNP/Independence vote rises is a thing of beauty.
Hey Daily Record, Y U still lie to me?
We know the Telegraph’s Scottish editor Alan Cochrane was paid a bonus to help secure a No vote in IndyRef1 – are the Daily Record’s editors’ getting a similar deal? I cannot think of any other reason why they purposely ignore the wishes of half the population of Scotland.
Denial of currency union means we can go into the next referendum promising to assume NO responsibility for debt. We will also have the Scottish issuing banks withdraw their £6billion of security deposits from the bank to be held centrally in Scotland to back our paper money while we liquidate the Bank of England and take our share of the gold and foreign currency reserves to back the remainder of our money supply. So we’ll have no debt and our currency will remain almost exactly as it is; “the pound in people’s pockets” will still be issued by a Scottish bank with a concrete peg to the UK pound. That’s most of that deficit gone already and the currency issue solved.
Also, we should go into the next referendum making it explicitly clear at all times that people paid pension contributions through National Insurance to the UK Governement. It is they who will pay those pensions until people die. It’s no different to someone retiring to Spain. So we’ll pay no pensions on day one and it will be about sixty years before we pay the full pension bill for all Scottish pensioners. That wipes out the rest of the deficit pretty easily. It also gives us room to start setting money aside to create a Scottish Pension Fund.
Once you then factor in the billion or more (mostly on new jobs) from shifting civil service jobs we already pay for but are mostly based outside Scotland (e.g. a Scotish DVLA, Foreign Office, Defence Department etc.), a reduced defence spend (but with more of it spent in Scotland, meaning we get MORE economic benefit at a LOWER actual cost) and other similar calculations, the future looks incredibly bright for Scotland.
Neatly done.
The Daily Record, Scotland’s Chumpion.
Murray McCallum says:
24 October, 2015 at 1:33 pm
“Haven’t they made themselves hostage to fortune: what happens if the oil price ramps up?
Will the Record revert back to WW2, a force for good, most successful union ever (or evel), becoming foreigners, …?”
No, they have a version for rising oil prices too, lamenting increased costs for business, an overly strong Pound hitting trade balance and so on.
The thing that interest me most is how Scotland can increase productivity.
‘Scottish video games industry ‘could eclipse oil boom’
Is this true?
As far as the Daily Record & many other ‘news’ outlets go I have had my eyes opened thanks to Wings.
I don’t have much to say about the Daily Record article except that I ain’t reading it because I know in advance that it’s all shite and on top of that I don’t like figures.
Either Scotland is a hopeless case filled with useless people or a modern country filled with capable people.
Do you not think it quite amusing that the Rancid is giving others lectures on economics whilst it is itself plunging into oblivion due to alienating its own customer base.
I think I will listen to those with more credibility in the field of economics
The only Black Hole is sales of the Daily Record.
Scott Borthwick
You’re quite correct. These financial geniuses have us totally covered. No matter what happens Scotland is too poor.
@Murray McCallum
If the oil price goes up then unionist polticians are back to their old argument about volatility, and how too wee, too poor, too stupid Scotland cannot possibly run its own affairs.
And we won’t be paying our population share of so called British projects which have little or no impact on Scotland, such as HS2, London Sewers, Crossrail etc. Nor will we be paying our population share of English Courts and Prisons whilst also paying 100% of Scottish Courts
And Prisons.
Oil always was and will ever be a bonus, which if used prudently like Norway could be a huge financial asset.
“We wonder if there’s any chance that the Record will notice before it’s too late.”
Who cares? Does anyone believe a word The Record says anymore? And why did it have NOTHING to say about the Tory government disenfranchising Scottish MPs? Including the MP for Red Morningside…
Excellent…you called their bluff…again. When will they ever learn?
Daily Record sales keep pace with plummeting oil price. Love it.
Your closing graph is the icing on the cake.
They are still really, really embarrassed that they said the Vow was delivered aren’t they 🙂
The Record is a silly place and I never go there (plus their website makes my laptop hang.)
Is the Daily Redcoat seriosuly trying to tell us that successful countries all around the world that don’t export any or very little oil are doomed to become economic basket cases? Really?
I would rather have 100% of our lower priced oil asset than 8.4% of the higher priced asset that is currently attributed to us.
And I am absolutely confident that last graph will be totally mirrored by audience viewing figures for the BBC in Scotland. BBC down – SNP up.
“The price of petrol has fallen from a peak average of 148p a litre in April 2012 to 111p now, a huge drop of 25% (despite the common perception that the price never comes down when oil falls).”
I don’t think this really is the perception. It is that any reduction is given to the public as slow as a tortoise on downers but a rise in price is seen almost immediately. Funny that…
@ Lenny Hartley:
No taxation without representation. Haven’t revolutions been started by this sort of thing?
So, The Record is basically calling half the population of Scotland stupid? Not very clever, is it? And a bit rich.
Scotland has always contributed more than we get back.
When the oil runs out Westminster will make sure we still contribute more than we get back: they will just give us less back, it’s as simple as that.
Anyone that thinks they will plug the gap when the oil runs out is a sucker. We will always be poorer in the union than alone because Westminster will make sure of it.
The cost at the pump is mostly tax. For comparison, prices in the US at the moment are about 35p a litre because the tax rate is very much lower. Scotland could be making revenue from oil and have less expensive fuel, boosting the rest of the economy.
Population debt share from having been part of a VERY badly run country = £4.3 Billion p.a. and rising! Would have closed the Supposed gap substantially had Great Britain been capable of showing any Swinneyesque fiscal responsibility as opposed to arrogance,cronyism, inequality and greed. Ah well, at least we will now be spared the advent of another Scottish PM of the proven quality of Gordon Brown!
Mr Cleggs own background and allegiance pervades every aspect of his work. Not strong on imagination or analysis!
An inherently status quo individual!
I’ve just finished a stint on a new platform off the west coast of Shetland, there was around 400 workers on the job, plus back to backs, around 70-80% of those workers were from south of the border and what is omitted from the unionists calculations is that we all pay tax to Westminster and the spending power of these workers in their local economies which in turn brings jobs to their economy, the knock on effect.
Think where we’d be if the proportion was 80% Scots?
I’m not talking about the Claire ridge project here, that probably has around 650, plus back to backs, with around the same proportion of English/Scottish mix also.
I used to go for the odd pint in the Press Bar in Glasgow when it was owned by Leo McAtee.
He described the reporters who frequented it as soul less humans whose only aim in life was to get a story by any means fair or foul.
Good to see little has changed since then.
The price of fuel in Edinburgh (Sainsbury) is 105p today, not 111p, don’t know about elsewhere. Low oil prices ought to affect industry, and would affect Council budgets if energy companies were more co-operative.
i found during the Indy ref that unionists were utterly fixated with the oil price. They never,ever gave any recognition to the fact that Scotland’s economy is much, much more than that, in fact, the more I would go as far to say that the more you pointed out the depth and breadth of Scotland’s economy the angrier they got.
On the current Government expenditure settings, the government (at all levels) spends much more in Scotland than is raised in taxes, but it is not clear to me what scope there is to cut that expenditure, apart from defence. As George Kerevan commented (hope I am quoting him accurately), FFA would still require topup funding from Westminster, along the lines followed in most federal systems. And if that is true for FFA …
Generally, what the chart shows is the fall in oil prices would have had some devilish effects on the finances of an iScotland government, even if the effects for the economy as a whole are on balance positive. There is oil still there, lots of it, but it is getting increasingly expensive to extract.
@Kenny at 1.40pm
I think you are being hopelessly optimistic. And extending HS2 to Scotland is actually the desired option for the Scottish Ministers.
The Daily Records research department wage bill must be very low if they can’t look up some pretty simple facts that my 17 year old Grandson looked up within 10 minutes of this Pish
And another thing, Army? Is there something wrong with David Gleggs brain cell, I mean he only has the one to take care of and can’t work that one out
I could tell him something more about that but then I’d have to kill him,
But I suppose he keeps us entertained, although getting invited on telly a bit less these days for his “Expert journalistic opinion” Mmm
It’s time for these figures to be presented more accurately and not just accepted as is.
After Independence, Scotland would save about £1.5bn per annum on reductions in military spending and around £6bn on the National Infrastructure Plan by which Scotland subsidises capital projects that never benefit Scotland.
On top of that, I will be casting my vote for the first party to stand up and say they will stop any further payments towards English debt. It isn’t ours, it was never needed by us and I will not pay it.
That’s nearly £12bn saved right there. Surplus of £4bn+ to spend or cut taxes.
I wonder how much state pensions would cost an indy Scotland? Think about it. All the pensioners that are alive today and drawing their pensions were born as British citizens and paid their taxes to the British state all their lives. There’s no doubt that honouring these pensioners entitlements would have to be met by the rUK or there would be an international outcry. Possibly, a rational and fair agreement would be come to between Scotland and rUK in respect of these state pensions. But it would have to be for something significant in return, because clearly, these state pensions are the UK’s responsibility, and they would have to go on paying them after indy, as indeed they said they would, when pressed on the matter. Though this of course was not reported loud and clear by the unionist press. Think of the saving that would remove from the balance sheet.
The Daily Record is nothing more than a propaganda sheet for the Tory Party.
It proves this every time it prints an anti SNP story.
Because the SNP is the major party in Scotland trying to protect Scotland from the Tory Party then by attacking the SNP, the Daily Record shows it’s true intentions.
The Daily Record is Anti Scottish.
The political landscape in Scotland has become so polarised that effectively there are now two political camps within Scotland. I think we should list the Political Parties and newspapers that occupy each camp. I think this is also a useful exercise so that people in Scotland understand, in a shorthand way, who is pro and who is anti Scotland.
A Pro Scotland camp, made up of the SNP, some Greens, SSP. With Pro Scotland newspapers, The National. If there are others, then please add them.
An Anti Scotland camp, made up of the Labour Party, Tory Party, LibDems, UKIP.
Anti Scotland newspapers are Daily Record, The Herald weekly, Scotsman, Press and Journal, Scottish Sunday Mail. What other Scottish newspapers are Anti Scottish? There are numerous smaller local newspapers but I don’t know them all.
Of course the big lie from Clegg is that their primary objection to independence is backward looking balance sheet.
If the numbers showed Scotland in a surplus they would be back to their pooling and sharing shtick.
They are Flag Waving Unionists and it is any port in a storm.
chris kilby says:
24 October, 2015 at 2:10 pm
So, The Record is basically calling half the population of Scotland stupid? Not very clever, is it? And a bit rich.
Chris,
It could be argued that half the population of Scotland is thick: 55% of those who voted in the Independence Referendum voted No.
Very good Rev, your debunking is finely tuned, a well paced attack on the lies being told to our people…
…when many of us lose our cool – in the face of relentlessly offensive material in the media..
You rise like a beacon, admitting our humanity IS an excuse, for respecting the right of opposing personal views..
.. BUT THAT lying is different and must be repelled.
We’re on the way…
Mind you look what happens when you attack the snp and the first minister over a lie. You suddenly find yourself in California commenting on hurricanes and Donald Trump. link to mobile.twitter.com
The cynic amongst us – well me really is that the real story is to keep Cook well away from the Carmichael court care as he knows more than he is making out. Love to see Mundell and Wullie Rennie explaining how they got advance notice of the lying email and promoted by the Torygraph, Daily Record and Hootsmon. All in it bitter and together.
The Daily Record editor is a pro unionist red , white and blue man. He will toe the unionist line.
Huge assumption that in any settlement SG would take on a straight forward £4.3b annual rUK debt interest. In fact the figures and hypothesis are so narrow it bares no relation to any projection of reality.
Its not even Idiots guide to Economics.
[…] A poverty of imagination […]
See the bit where the Daily Record says:
‘note to Scottish Government’ about disputing the figures they produce ?
Well there is one obvious elephant in the room. These are projections for the Year 2016-2017 (financial year runs from end of March to end of March.)
So even if calculating from say this years oil revenues,2015-2016) with 5 months remaining, who’s to say the oil price doesn’t rise or indeed decrease ? That will clearly affect any projections.
Of course, that doesn’t even include projections from April next year which would be the start of the financial period the paper are actually talking about. Who the hell knows what will happen to the oil price or indeed other sources of revenue will be exactly a year from now.
Yet the Daily Record apparently has a crystal ball they are willing to stake any reputation they have left on this Mystic Meg enterprise. My advice, cut this out and keep it, cause along with the ‘Vow’ this is going to be a belter to shove right back in their faces.
What’s the break even point on record sales anyone?
the mirror seems to be hanging on in there at less than 15,000 with local papers at far less, I wouldn’t have thought production and distribution costs all that much greater per unit.
how long? ….
The unionists can’t have it both ways – if a high oil price is irrelevant and a low oil price is devastating then your position is inconsistent. The Scottish government always framed oil as a bonus during the pre indyref days which was a sensible approach.
Losing the asset of Scotland was always going to be a lose-lose for Westminster whether the price be high or low. That’s why they worked so hard to keep us.
David Clegg would do well to click that if you base your anti independence message on a low price you are only ever going to be undermined when the price recovers.
The economic case for independence is determined by your own viewpoint. If the Scottish economy is performing badly – if you want independent it’s a sign that the UK has mismanaged our economy but if you are a unionist it proves we can’t go it alone.
If the economy is doing great well – this proves to unionists that we are better together whilst it simultaneously proves to pro independence supporters that we can go it alone.
For that reason looking at the economy alone as it is now is fairly irrelevant. Looking at what can be done differently and the pros of decision making being made in Scotland against the cons of what we give up seems more useful.
We can see the ‘positive’ case of the union – that elusive beast illustrated this week when tax credits for the poor are being slashed and our MPs disenfranchised. We’re living the better together dream up here. Why indeed would anyone want to change anything?
What about Scotland’s billions in whisky duty?
That one’s for
link to twitter.com
just to make a very bitter UKOK heart skip a beat:D
If you’re out there Keverage and dude, we know you are, you won, your union is saved, FFA is probably a decade away, The Vow is oncoming nightmare for all Scots, your toryboy tax credits slash and burn is going to make life even worse for a lot of Scots, EVEL’s disenfranchised Scotland but Kevrage, thank you for making such an entertaining fool of yourself last this week.
Also, how come hardcore unionists like this guy in the Record or Superunionist Man Kevarage, never mention growth?
Spooky.
On the side issue of declining paper sales next to increasing snp support the Scotsman paper was being handed out free in Glasgow of all places last week.
The wife got one!, but they are useful. The dog was sick and the Scotsman met the bill to wipe up the shit. Everything has it use in life!
Thanks Hootsmon.
Good old Unionist prop rag the DR
The slow death it is dying really could do with being expedited.
I would be happy to contribute to a crowd-fund for a one way ticket to Switzerland
Once again a cutting rebuttal on block union focused MSM by WoS.
Is there a particular reason why the SNP let the hacks at the Record (and the like), get away with this mince.
Its so disappointing that the party does not have an instant media out let which further counters this unionist guff.
Always seems to be left to Rev to pounce.
Its clear Mr Clegg has his particular gripe via SNPbad/out mantra, but never a direct response from SNP to point out the flaws in the records diatribe.
Loved the final diag – pretty clear why they hate the SNP.
Those blood links with Labour North seem so unfortunate now.
Relax people relax. This is the current snapshot. By somewhere around 2020 the UK deficit is “supposed” to be zero, and by then the current projected absolute Scottish deficit (not deficit gap, the absolute deficit) is projected to be around 4.8% GDP (and this is a worst case scenario as it is based on Oil prices never rising again).
George Osbourne is going to slash spending to such an extent that the deficit gap between the rUK and an iScotland will be at a point where it is feasible that an iScotland could conceivably maintain the spending by borrowing (after further spending cuts that are attributed to iScotland by GERS that could easily be cut).
The single biggest spending item an iScotland could cut very easily is defence. An iScotland just isn’t going to need to spend 2% GPD on defence spending (does anyone who voted Yes really care if an iScotland chose to slash defence spending, regardless of whatever NATO “requirements” are on % of GDP).
Also, if rUK did maintain the position of not entering into a currency union then (and this was Alex Salmond’s position last year, not sure if it has changed of course) an iScotland could not take on the debt burden and immediately cut £4 billion in debt interest (although this scenario is highly unlikely, it remains to be seen what Nicola Sturgeon’s position would be).
In actual fact by 2020 an iScotland might be in a position where it only needed to borrow something like 2% GDP to maintain the spending levels at the point of independence.
The argument against independence on purely economic terms is slowly shifting back towards the Yes side as ironically the Tories are doing the “dirty” work of slashing spending.
At the point of independence all that is really required is a way to maintain the current spending levels so as it make it appear that there’s no “immediate danger”, after that all the fantasy economics can kick in and grow the Scottish economy by orders of magnitude not seen outside of China.
(of course, quite what currency is going to be used is another question entirely, but that’s not the focus of this article)
The exasperating aspect of seeing Scotland permanently in the cross hairs is how much its enemies reproduce and recycle the same garbage in the belief saying something over and over again gets lodged in the mind as a truth.
And to some extent, they’re are correct.
It’s not even the big headline grabbing things that would improve the balance sheet of an independent Scotland. It’s the very nature of being an independent country that would bring money in. A full set of foreign embassies based in Edinburgh: we all know diplomats aren’t short of a bob or two, so more nice restaurants, employing more people, more posh shops employing more people, more international exhibitions employing more people, more tourists coming to Scotland, employing more people. More employed people, more tax revenue to put back into Scottish services.
More money to spend on infrastructure, encourages more inward investment, especially in rural areas: improve the broadband and you improve online retail from small outfits, who employ locally, who keep small communities viable, which makes tourism more of a choice and less of an enforced necessity, which makes the whole experience for tourists better.
A home market for home produced craft and artisanal products, makes Scotland a modern identity in the design field, not some pastiche of thistles, tartan and heiland coos. (see the newly improved banner for the Scotland Office (sic) Facebook page). Nobody has to go to London to make it, when you have developed an international standing of your own, companies that want a piece of your action have to come and set up in your country.
I just don’t get why anyone thinks independence is simply the status quo with a new header on the notepaper. It’s never been like that for anywhere that’s become independent. Norway is not like Sweden, it’s like Norway. Ireland is not like the UK of GB and NI, it’s like Ireland. The Czech Republic and Slovakia are not like each other, they are like themselves. Even although these places share similarities due to their recent unions with each other, they immediately diverged precisely because the divergence was already happening during the union.
And anybody who thinks there is not a major divergence between nations within the UK of GB and NI, must be getting their news from the Beano, never mind the Daily ‘Record’.
By printing an article such as this, the Redcoat is conceding that there will be another referendum.
They also never seem to mention the UK debt black hole, which will probably be close to £2 trillion by the time of the next vote.
I’m no economist but it seems to me no one states the obvious fact.
If Scotland is such a financial basket case, why does Westminster fight so hard to keep it in the union? you would think they would only be too happy go get rid of the financial burden.
Or could it be that they would loose their holiday estates where they can take their high paying buddies fishing and shooting? or worse still Queenie would have to start paying tax on her cottage in the north east, heavens!!
Last word, oil in the grun is like money in the bank, the price is what it is, the whole world lives in that boat.
I work in engineering, mostly sub contract stuff for the oil industry. We have recently lost workmates due to the downturn, and i think i will be joining them shortly. I’m up to my neck in debt, and will probably lose my home. There is no demand for my skills in the NE in this downturn, so i will probaly have to move to try and find work.
And you know what, i would still fuckin vote Yes again!
Only Independence will cut off the supply lines of phony disinformation from these unionist rags.
Expect more of the same day in day out, that is the standing order of their Establishment masters.
One good thing is their ever dwindling sales figures-more and more enlightened people can’t stomach the skewed drivel.
EVEL is to be quietly accepted as the way to go.
Though from where I’m sitting it’s a massive step towards breaking Westminster,if Scottish Mp’s are to be alienated what is the fucking point of being there?
Methinks EVEL from Cracklin’Dave is positive for Independence seekers.
FPTP voting is not a democratic system so why it is allowed is a mystery to me.
Westminster should be closed as a fraud on the people.
nazi`s yesterday and then pull out the old big lie too wee,too poor,too stupid,you would be broke because of the oil ,which in itself its a mental statement how can you be broke having oil,if you are broke then someone is on the fiddle.
Now lets take a look at our so called rich neighbors who for years has pimped out the economy(London) on the back of the oil revenue,1.5 trillion in debt so broke that they just sold out their people to another country who will reap the rewards of their electricity costs,all that money will now no longer circulate inside our economy it will be siphoned of to China.
And the best of it they had the brass neck to make it try to look like a state visit of a lesser nation,pure arrogance with no balls to back it up,the Chinese must be laughing their heads off.
Yes, I saw Cleggy’s distortion of what Swinney said in an interview with him, yesterday I think. Even the poll on that page was biased “Do you agree with Swinney?”. No idea, what was it Swinney was supposed to have said? The article was very confused.
I’ve got a lot of time for Ashcroft, unlike many fellow Indy supporters. He produces some good reports, and if you remove his ideological stance, or even reverse it, they make good reading, and healthy reading for Scotland. Let’s face it, Stiglitz also has an ideological bias, towards Independence. Bell too does some good stuff, though with a bit more of an anti-indy slant than Ashcroft.
The great thing for Scotland is that with the focus on Scotland, Independence and our economy, there is a truly massive amount of analysis and reports out there, so when Scotland does go Independent, there’s a lot of good academic research to build on.
I hope they all keep it up to date.
And yes, Osborne is on record effectively saying the low oil price was a boon for the UK, and so apart from job losses, it is for Scotland. Being able to lower the fuel duty and oil taxes would be an important “lever” for Scotland, to help balance out higher revenues when the oil price rises, with mitigating the effect on oil users in Scotland.
Scotland is 3-4 times more rural than England, by area, and presumably more affected in business by fuel prices, plus the route to export being mostly by road or air via Southampton and e.g. Stanstead.
Colin Rippey says:
24 October, 2015 at 2:53 pm
Relax people relax
Easy for you to say Kevarage! Anyway this doesn’t make sense at all
“Relax people relax. This is the current snapshot. By somewhere around 2020 the UK deficit is “supposed” to be zero,”
But why is austerity Osborne deficit still massive and lets not go into the national debt?
Austerity for the poor, socialism for the rich, UKOK
Separated by red and blue toryboy UK
link to telegraph.co.uk
link to theguardian.com
You use your adblock, you takes your choice Kevarage.
A coruscating expose of the ‘back of the envelope economics’ beloved of the Daily Ripcord et al Red Tops. Clegg doesn’t know his arse from his elbow vis a vis fiscal or economic matters.
@Juteman,
Well said mate, and I hope in an independant Scotland you find work if you need it.
“The total cost of the administrative transition to independence was estimated last year by Professor Patrick Dunleavy of the London School of Economics at £650 million.”
Yes, and that’e presumably the GROSS cost, as in the cost to do it. What that bald figure doesn’t include is the knock on effect of £650 million being spent, much of it in the Scottish economy, the jobs, taxes, extra profits for companies, even VAT. The Nett cost would then be a lot lower, no idea if there’s any standard multiplier, but say 50%, so NETT cost £325 million – probably lower.
That’s part of the whole agrument about austerity versus anti-austerity, state spending is a part of increasing GDP.
What about the price of North Sea gas? Oil may be on a downer because of the Saudis desire to screw the shale oil market in the USA & Canada but our gas prices aren’t collapsing.
There are smaller companies buying up oil fields which are no longer viable to the big boys and using new recovery methods to extract more oil and gas. If these smaller companies keep trading successfully until oil prices pick up then there must be a massive bonus for the Scottish economy.
Would be interesting to see what the big timber companies in Scandinavia are doing about their sales of newsprint. These guys don’t mess about when it comes to cutting costs if they see sales and forecast sales dropping. With newspaper circulations falling as they are the big paper mills must be hurting.
I wish the Daily Record would just come out and say it:
“You’re better with 20 years of Tory governments than independence!”
The Canary Wharf owned gutter rag the Daily Record, does eveything in its power to do Scotland down.
Clegg and this guy are the prime suspects.
http://whitehall1212.blogspot.co.uk
link to theconversation.com
From Feb but…
“The national budget
Unlike in the UK, the main narrative in the Norwegian media is not about cutting producer taxes but worry about the state failing to obtain its expected revenue as outlined in the country’s budget. Some experts believe that if the trend continues the actual revenue collected for the pension fund this year could be as low as half of what was budgeted, which would doubtless be a blow.
Last month, Norwegian prime minister Erna Solberg and finance minister Siv Jensen held a press conference on the situation, underlining that the government is prepared to take action if this becomes necessary, but that for the time being, the state budget is sufficiently capable of containing the situation. This means there are currently no plans to make cuts to the budget to cope with lower revenues.
Sovereign wealth
The big advantage that Norway has is the US$860bn (£565bn) Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global into which the oil money is deposited. Intended as an investment for future generations, it is the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world.”
Quick google, Norway also has huge modernised heavy industry sector. Bet they wish they were in a UKOK style union with England.
Revenue collected for the pension fund, they jammy sods.
Ach, I’m scunnered wi’ it.
Just ‘cos those upstanding ladies and gennelmen of the press use black ink on white paper they must think that the world is ‘black and white’. No subtle nuance or argument for them. If you’re on ‘this’ side of the line you’re a knuckle-dragging separatist while if you’re on the other side of the ‘line’ you’re a sensible, want what’s best for the UK, unionist.
That crap is great when you’re talking to five year old kids but in my experience the world, and the people who populate it, just isn’t that simple. Can I have a piece of Cowan’s toffee now? I’ll be a good wee Nat for the rest of the day – promise.
Juteman @3.16
Sorry to hear that, I know a few people who have lost their jobs but have now found work and are still in the O & G industry.
I know contract guys that have been let go that have found work too.
I know it’s shit, and I hate saying it but keep your chin up.
I don’t know if my jobs safe either.
As for the record STFU what an idiot that guy Clegg is.
So Scotland’s earns over 57bn pa and Scottish Goverment gets approx 32bn pa pocket money
To run the devolved services. 25bn pa seems an awful lot to pay for defence, foreign affairs and benefits considering that all current pensions and a pro rate share of future pensions will continue to be paid by rUK. Surely somebody somewhere has done an updated forensic analysis on the true fiscal position?
Not this rubbish again.
Can’t ‘journalists’ google or do Maths.
Total taxes raised in the UK £466Billion. £90Billion borrowed and spent inthe rest of the UK. Total taxes raised in Scotland £54Billion. Scotland gets £50Billion? Back.
Take £54Billion from £466Billion. = £412Billion Divide by 11 ( rest of the UK 11/12) = £39Billion.
Scotland raises £54Billion. (with little Oil revenues £2Billion) The rest of the UK (pro rata) raises £39Billion.
Scotland gets £7Billion of rest of the UK debt added to its accounts.
If Scotland got £54Billion it raises and cut Trident/illegal wars, put a tax on ‘loss leading’ drink, cut tax evasion, developed Oil on the West etc. Scotland would be £10Billion+ better off. Borrow £5Billion = £15Billion better off.
Westminster has illegally and secretly, taken the equivalent of £220Billion+ Oil revenues from
Scotland. Thatcher and the McCrone Report. Thousands of jobs are being lost because the Oil sector is still being highly taxed. Foreign multinationals, making vast profits, tax evade through the City of London.
Forensic as ever Stu . The DR has about as much clue on macroeconomics as it has about factual journalism . Maybe a “wee green book ” of economics and statistics for dummies would help with a copy to go to the BBC especially AF Neil and other MSM outlets.
Try get Ruthie and her fellow unionists to explain why Scotland has to contribute to the £55bn HS2 project Scots share £5bn for which we get no benefit.
SG gets no monetary relief due because it is an Infrastructure project so NO Barnett cash
link to stophs2.org
Sorry that should be 31bn not 25bn, forgot about our so called black hole.
We have debt interests on the money borrowed for English projects.
Our allocated spend of the Defence budget is false ( based on Trident).
Troops are based in England and spend their income there.
We have the Scottish Office / The Lords and other burdens allocated.
VAT / HQ income / etc are distorted
Everything that was in the Blue Book or dissected by Business For Scotland during the YES campaign.
The information is available but the media keep printing the old lies.
Wake up Scotland and reject the enemy within.
Ach, I’m scunnered wi’ it
Exactly the record’s intention. Scots oil reserves over £1.5 trillion using long term barrel average yet, here we are being terrorised by Britnat UKOK media with it, day in day out in teamGB.
It’s a dirty business, anyway if NOT Scots oil is worthless, why won’t the Tory UK.gov give up control of the industry to Holyrood, give it back to the Scotland what they really weally wuv?
I’m a strong believer in Scotland setting up a central bank now. The organisation I used to work for in the 90’s was busy setting up central banks for the Balkan regions whilst bullets will still being fired. It was a boom time for us because we sold 2 or 3 central banking systems all at once. South Sudan had a central bank for years before succession from Sudan in 2011. If South Sudan can do it, why can’t Scotland?
Central banks include the capability for managing the currency and monetary policy, analysis of financial stability, providing oversight of payments – I’m not sure I agree with some of the twitterati that this should be BitCoin based because I don’t believe it will work for a centralised currency (BitCoin is de-centralised by nature) – but running a central bank in parrallel now, slowly improving its capability over time, wouldn’t cost much and would allow us to measure the *actual* economy and make the *right* decisions – even with the current, a federal or fully autonomous government
Y’know if you were a wee bit cynical, you’d perhaps think that after the vow blew up in their face and with the introduction of EVEL, the Record are desperate to convince people that they were somehow in the right to sell people’s democracy down the river.
It has an air ‘yeah, but’ written all over it.
Juteman at 3.12 In the same boat myself although we made 42 redundant 2 months back myself included.Signed on for the first time in my life last week at the age of 50.Scotlands industrial base is being systematically dismantled I believe strongly to teach us a lesson and leave us as circa the 80’s a wasteland.I would still vote yes .
But according to the FT…,
‘Oil and gas lift UK industrial output’
link to ft.com
Hinkley Point costs £18Billion. It will cost consumers £13Billion. Will it be over time and budget like the one in Finland, seven years late. Renewables are much cheaper. Coal is plentiful all over the UK and half the cost of imported Gas. With CCS the harmful gas could be reduced.
HS2 is a white elephant with no business case, no enough customers. It will always be subsidised and make journeys throughout the UK longer. Osbourne’s family and associates are making £Millions in fees and consultations on these projects, RBS sell off and Royal Mail pension grab. Crossrail is costing £Billions to get bankers from Canary Wharf to Heathrow 15 mins faster.
Scottish consumers pay a higher price for fuel and energy, because it is colder. Despite being nearer to the source and Scotland being 25% in surplus in fuel and energy.
“His stark choice would have been to slash spending, hike up taxes…”
Is that not as it is now after the no vote and the result of the Vow and the impact of the new “powers” of the Yet to be delivered Scotland Bill
Scotlands industrial base is being systematically dismantled I believe strongly to teach us a lesson and leave us as circa the 80’s a wasteland.I would still vote yes
BP struck oil in UK North Sea in 1970
link to news.bbc.co.uk
Scotland, the only country in the west to strike oil and get poor. Tory party sold off everything, BP, British Gas, British Steel, and across Scotland heavy industry was wiped out. It made the 270 steel jobs going in Motherwell look like nothing.
BP struck oil with the Forties the biggest offshore oil fields ever seen 1970, Parkhead Forge steel works Glasgow, shut in 1976, nearly 30,000 job losses. All of it by red/blue tory UK.gov.
i always had understood in simple terms that the oil industry constituted about one tenth of scotland’s receipts and hence could never understand (but I did) why so many commentators went daft on the fall in price. Is that understanding so far wrong?
Happy to be corrected.
Over a page of bluff & bluster to say what could have been said in two words ‘SNP Baaaaad’
Record staff clearly have:
1. Too much time on their hands
2. Not a clue about economics
3. Nothing else they can think of to con Scots with
4. Limited combined brain cell capacity
Time was when this type of article this would have worked but those days are long gone. Their continual drop in circulation is proof of that fact.
Seems its ex-readers have voted with their feet & got themselves other sources of information 😉
well things are looking up ,the mantra has always been a deep dark 8 billion hole, now it’s a 7 billion hole a bloody big improvement EH where did that missing billion go to ? just asking
Stare pensions in Scotland are £6Billion. State pensions in the rest of the UK are £72Billion. (Higher pro rata because they live longer). Scotland pays it’s own (UK) gov state pensions. Part of the £16Billion Scotland gets back for pensions/benefits. £10Billion for benefits? Scotland could be getting less back – £28Billion instead of £30Billion Block Grant. Tory cuts.
Austerity could be avoided (less harsh cuts) and the deficit could still be cut, but debt is going up. More UK gov borrowing/tax cuts putting up the debt? The Tory race to the bottom, attacking the vulnerable.
@ state pensions
[…] We don’t follow many Unionists on social media, because you end up wasting your day arguing pointlessly with a lot of people who are never going to change their minds and getting in a bad mood. But we’re told they were all very excited about an article in yesterday’s Daily Record. […]
My previous post didn’t seem to work so….
I look at these headlines and just laugh.
There’s an elephant in the room and it’s the UK economy. A country who’s economic cornerstone is financial speculation. An economic Ponzi scheme based on the price of housing – sucking the disposable cash out of its citizens which stifles economic activity.
All the above guaranteed by the tax payer.
So the comment above about the UK having a balanced budget or even a surplus are laughable.
A government running a surplus means the only way to grow the economy is for the banks to issue more money – that only happens when the private sector borrows.
Private sector debt is approaching levels of 2007 – and we all know what happened after that.
So when the private sector stops borrowing or worse experiences a bursting bubble, the govt automatic stabilisers kick in – which results in an automatic govt deficit. It’s a good thing – a safety mechanism. Public sector deficits can be sustained, private sector deficits can’t. For most it’s post war economic history the USA has run deficits. It’s attempt to run a surplus (.Clinton) resulted in a very large private debt bubble.
Of course the UK can always ‘afford’ to bail out the banks again because we are a currency ISSUER. Our public debt levels are greater than Greece, yet they face a precipitous situation. They are financially constrained because they are a currency USER.
If any sovereign currency issuing nation (with a floating exchange rate ) could go bust voluntarily, Japan would have done it long ago.
Scotland has vast resources, but it’s needs to issue its own currency to unlock these resources.
We need to re-educate ourselves about money soon. Only then can we win the argument.
Why isn’t the Better Together mob using those strong protective shoulders to help the thousands that are losing their jobs in the 0 & G industry?
Clegg is a NI Loyalist employed to spread his British poison over here.
It is all the usual Record total crapology.
In the first place Scotland has never had a penny of direct oil or gas revenues as it is classed as being extracted from Extra-Regio-Territory which the UK claims as UK revenue. Scotland’s only gains from the north sea are from fish and renewables. We do not even get the Scottish Crown Estate profits as yet.
We gain a bit from the industries use of property in Scottish areas although many companies are registered in London. There are gains from the service industry but much of the employees are from outside Scotland and/or get paid from London head offices and spend their incomes when they go home and that is mainly outside Scotland.
The direct losers when oil & gas prices drop is the UK Treasury. Furthermore, John Swiney’s figures were always based upon non-oil & Gas incomes. If Alex Salmond said it once he said it thousands of times, “The oil is just a bonus”.
Any business haemorrhaging customers at the rate the Record is losing readership is in no position to criticise a finance minister who has never failed to balance his organisation’s books. In fact if it were not for the advertising revenues, and the on-line click-bait, the Record would have died years ago.
Take heart though, folks, for it cannot be too far away now before the advertisers awake to the fact their ads are reaching a far lower number of readers than they did when their business’ began using the Record.
Business people are hard-headed and don’t feel inclined to stick with a business they deal with from brand loyalty. It is quite some considerable time since the Record was in fact, “Scotland’s Paper”, that it once prided itself as being.
LOL …brilliant!! Just back from my holidays. Logon to the PC. Straight into Wings and this article …and that final graphic!
The Daily Record sales plummeting …SNP Votes rocketing
That made my day and warmed me up being back in a rather cold Scotland.
Which I suppose raises a question and a smirk about the Daily Record. Where is the fine line between profit and loss? The margins must be getting a tad closer with each passing month!
@Juteman, @Kevin meina
Bad. Worth keeping an eye on the Herald business section which is still a very good one, to see new companies springing up, you might get ahead of competition – seems to me a lot of jobs / contracts don’t get advertised.
Also of course the usual, O&G, Wood, Kemp. It’s reckoned Oil will go smaller less overheads companies, and there’s a lot of selling off but also buying up of fields operations at the moment – clearly the buyers see a good future. Big oil having difficulties, opportunities for small oil, speciallly if they co-operate.
This is all the unionists have left same old tired worn out regurgitation of lies and more lies that they have used on the people of Scotland for the last nigh on 40 years. They really should be ashamed, thats if they have any shame in them, which i doubt!
On the upside the sales numbers for all “top” so called newspapers are falling. Reducing their influence on the guidable and hard of thinking.
Daily record: sales down 11.2 per cent since this time last year.
Sunday mail: sales down 13 per cent down since this time last year.
The Scottish { ? } Sun /Sunday sales down 10.2 per cent down since this time last year
The Scottish Sun : sales down 11.2 per cent since this time last year
Source :
link to allmediascotland.com
Some of them such as the FT /Independent on Sunday / The People /The Independent etc have sales number so low it makes The Digger magazine look like a media powerhouse{ though being fair I fancy the digger has more truth in one edition than most of the msm have in a year}
JLT says:
24 October, 2015 at 5:11 pm
LOL …brilliant!! Just back from my holidays. Logon to the PC. Straight into Wings and this article …and that final graphic!
The Daily Record sales plummeting …SNP Votes rocketing
I missed that bit. That is a work of art it should have a thread all it itself or be framed and hung in an Art Gallery.
I can just envisage that on a massive canvass hanging in The Gallery of Modern Art. It needs a title! Any suggestions?
@Lollysmum
Oh hell yes. 😀
Even their headline is misleading guff. Where do they think an economic model comes from? It comes from the choices your government make, or rather that they are ABLE to make. In a modern democracy, your economy flows from democratic, mandated choice, the trust people place in their government’s handling of their taxes and resources and full control of your economic levers.
What does that say about the model made by UK gov.?
The Record are asking us to continue to trust in and mandate a system that has brought us financial hardship and misery. Their argument being that a fully empowered Scottish government couldn’t possibly do better and their reasoning is?
Just because.
O/T
Does anybody know if Libdems are using BAAAAD Police Scotland re their branch office shindig / rave thingy ?
Did they pay their last bill ?
“Let’s Hear It” seems to me to be an invitation so has this refutation been sent to them for publication?
Time for a wee list of the Records predictions
They got the VOW right, or was it wrong, I can’t remember
I’ll ask Gordon Brown maybe he knows
They should make it a musical paper like a birthday card or Christmas card, except when you open the Record it plays “The Sash”
Wonder if the bigoted folk who buy this non bigoted newspaper know that it’s definitely non bigoted (making it clear) I can hear music, must be my age
@Kenny says: 24 October, 2015 at 1:40 pm:
” … Denial of currency union means we can go into the next referendum promising to assume NO responsibility for debt. We will also have the Scottish issuing banks withdraw their £6billion of security deposits from the bank to be held centrally in Scotland to back our paper money while we liquidate the Bank of England and take our share of the gold and foreign currency reserves to back the remainder of our money supply.”
Precisely, Kenny. not to mention a whole lot of other idiotic bland assumptions made by the Establishment propagandists. The main one being the idiocy of a legal, “United Kingdom”, being the Status Quo Ante after the only two kingdoms that formed the Union get divorced one to the other.
There are absolutely no legal doubts that only two Kingdoms form the United Kingdom.
Sometimes known as the statute of Wales, this was in fact a royal ordinance, not issued by Parliament. It was intended to settle the government of Wales after the execution of Dafydd ap Gruffydd in 1283. English criminal law was to be introduced, but Welsh custom and law were to operate in civil proceedings. Six sheriffdoms were established in Anglesey, Caernarfon, Merioneth, Flint, Carmarthen, and Cardiganshire.
Fact – The Kingdom of England absorbed the Princedom of Wales after the execution of Dafydd ap Gruffydd in 1283. They So called, “Statute of Rhuddlan”, was factually not issued by the Parliament of England for both the Kingdom of England and the Princedom of Wales in 1283 were under the legal system of, “Divine Right of Kings”, in which the monarch’s word was law. Thus Wales automatically became part of the English king’s realm under his, “Royal Ordinance”, by the, “Statute of Rhuddlan in 1684.
The Kingdom of Ireland had also become part of the Kingdom of England under the same Divine Right of Kings Law, after King of England had declared himself, “Lord of Ireland”, but in 1542 he forced the Irish Parliament to pass, “The Crown of Ireland Act”, making all Ireland part of the Kingdom of England.
Now remember this same Kingdom of England had been attempting to annex Scotland but could never completely defeat the Scots. However, the Bruce succeeded in getting the Pope, (the head of all Christendom), to accept the Declaration of Arbroath in 1320 this not only declared Scotland an independent Kingdom but made the radical change in the law of Scotland from, “Divine Right of Kings”, to the still extant Scottish Legal System where the people of Scotland are sovereign.
Yet the legal Status Quo in the three country Kingdom of England in 1688 when the English Parliament had their, “Glorious Revolution”, did NOT change the then legal Status Quo, other than deferring the English Monarch’s sovereign powers to the Parliament of England, (all three countries of it).
So there is full documentary evidence that the Kingdom of England in 1603 was composed of three countries and all three were still under the legal system of, “Divine Right of Kings”. It was this difference between English and Scottish law that prevented King James VI of Scotland just tagging the English Kingdom onto his Scottish Kingdom in 1603. Quite simply he was not a sovereign monarch of Scotland since the Declaration of Arbroath and thus Scotland was not his to annex his English Kingdom to. This is why he moved his court to England where he was sovereign over all three countries of the Kingdom of Scotland. However, both he and the parliament of England have always claimed that 1603 was, “The Union of the Crowns”, and that England owned Scotland.
This was only too clear in 1688 when the English Parliament deposed the Monarch who wore both crowns as they just assumed this also deposed the Monarch of Scotland. This was the cause of the Jacobite Uprisings, (that the English still call the Jacobite Rebellion but you cannot rebel against a monarchy not your own). It also made it a desperately urgent need for the English to force a, “Treaty of Union”. They cannot have it both ways – if England annexed Scotland in 1603 why would they need a treaty in 1706/7?
In fact the Jacobite uprisings were not ended until almost 40 years after the Treaty of Union.
So there is no legal doubts that there are only two equally sovereign partners in the United Kingdom and when they part company, “They BOTH leave the Union”.
Here though, is the thing – If Scotland does not become a republic and keeps the Queen then the United Kingdom, (the actual realm also includes both Channel Island Bailiwicks and the Isle of
Man), will still exist but, “Her Majesty’s Parliament of Her United Kingdom”, cannot exist as such. Remember that while her Kingdom includes the three Crown protectorates they are npt part of the United Kingdom Parliament.
So there you go, Kenny, most of the stuff the NO campaign spouted during the referendum campaign was out and out lies. If Scotland has to give up Sterling then so must the entire Royal Realm
, (Man and the Bailiwicks use the pound). If Scotland must renegotiate EU entrance then so must England. Then we have ALL the joint assets and debits … … …?
Could we perhaps call this a WIN/WIN position for Scotland. If we did not have an oil & gas industry when the oil price is low our economy benefits. But because we do have an oil & gas industry we cannot lose – when the oil price is low our economy benefits but we still have a bonus income, when the oil price is high our economy suffers but we have a big bonus from our oil & gas to compensate us, which we would not have if we did not have an oil & gas industry.
Latest I read was the Saudis are having family problems which might just push the price of oil a little higher since they were the culprits in reducing it in the first place to combat US Fracking i.e. along with Osborne’s tax grab not too long ago that stalled North Sea project development. Hell what would I know I only spent 35 years in the industry?
In my opinion it appears that the Unionists and Daily Record readers are not capable of simple analysis.
However I am sure we cannot lose out because being too wee and too poor we can be sure that the Northern Powerhouse (Manchester) and the Super Powerhouse (London) will keep our foodbanks well stocked as we continue to rely on them to support us. Hell I just dropped some teardrops in my beer.
According to their website,the Libdem conference is sold out.If it holds 550 people I’d say that’s pretty good.Maybe they’ll have a whip-round for Carmichaels defence.Or their outstanding police bill.
Just watching Rennie on STV
🙂
I can’t actually take him seriously so it just made me smile.
@Mealer
According to twitter there was a fire alarm and all 60 or so lib dems had to make their way to the car park. You can see a picture on Tom Gordon’s twitter page.
Willie took credit for the Smith Commission and Scotland Bill and hopes to welcome yessers to vote for them provided they don’t want independence.
Delusional wee man
link to linkis.com
Saw only my second “no thanks” car sticker today.
What an embarrassment driving around proclaiming what a feart ignoramus you are.
No doubt they buy the daily record every day as well.
We’ve a long way to go yet folks.
Does anyone know if the Lib Condems paid last years’ costs for Policing their conference, and if they have agreed to pay this year?
They had to bus all their English OAP to sleep in a chair at last years farce with their Englishshire Broadcasting Corporation taking strangely angled shots to try and make the place look busy.
Is Danny taking his ermine robes and his yellow fake Budget Box. lol
So..
“Scotland will run a deficit” – Yes like just about every other country
“Scotland will get junk status by the ratings agencies” – OK – the same Nero-liberal agencies that gave Enron the green light and have laughably just downgraded Brazil for running deficits.
“It will be prohibitively expensive for Scotland to borrow” – Not with its own floating currency. I’d love people to point me to currency issuing countries who pay high interest rates at the moment. (EU countries all essentially use a foreign currency)
“The oil is in decline”
No shit, as it will be everywhere. Leav in ground for next generation. The resource will still be there.
Here’s some debunking of those ratings agencies..
link to bilbo.economicoutlook.net
Just clocked Rennie’s plea to the people.
Nearly had a stitch. 😀
Oh the killer blow to the FM and the SNP to stop keeping independence in people’s minds… Bwahahahahahahahaha!
Oh jeez. The man’s an unconscious comedian. The only people in public life who keep bringing the issue up are the meeja and opposition parties.
You don’t suppose their a tad nervous do you? I mean all those statements they made. All those promises.
All bollox and the hens coming home to roost on each and every one, yet still they play the whole party politics two step. Were I wee Wull, I’d not be over worried about what the SNP will do. I’d say he should be more worried about claiming his share of credit for all the better togetherness we’re currently enjoying. In fact I’d be worried about what the electorate are going to do to him and his party next year.
Most folk don’t enjoy being lied to and manipulated and he needn’t think we’ve forgotten that the first person the Telegraph went to for an opinion on the Memogate affair was his good self.
So Mr Rennie, what precisely did you know and when did you know it?
Clock’s ticking on folk who sought to manipulate the public Wull.
Yon Frances Barber’s on the Jaegerbombs again – check out WOS Twitter.
Willie Rennie seems obsessed with Independence and having another Referendum. He should let go and feel the Force, though I’m not sure that would do any good for his relations with Police Scotland.
I take it the 77th dont work weekends?
Will Willie Rennie and the Libdems give a manifesto commitment to bring forward a consultative referendum on Devomax/home rule? Have they squared up their bill from the police yet? Has anyone heard what the attendance was at their conference?
Considering that production and extraction of oil has dropped with the oil price, it seems likely the Record has got it technically wrong as oft times before, when it talks about oil sticks declining. Cleatly that can’t happen if it’s not being extracted!
It’s probably confusing the issue with the dip or inclination of a basin which holds oil.
Hmmm. It would help if I had a clue about geology, but then neither does the Record.
John King 7.32
Maybe you should send an email to the MOD pointing out this deficiency.
I don’t really know much about Frances Barber, presumably I have seen her work at some point, but a cracking Godwin there from her.
Frances, I don’t hate you….why would I? Your picture says you are Labour so the rivalry is purely political. Back in the real world….
What has Germaine been up to to upset the students in Cardiff? She can be a bit judgmental in her later years although can still make the odd apposite point.
who u gonna call? propagandabusters
OT
So a dour match between South Africa and New Zealand, with the All Blacks just getting the win. In the alternate semi-final tomorrow, where World Rugby had supplied a referee rather than a joubert [1] in the Scotland v Australia match, Scotland would have a very good chance against Argentina who have shown a lot of indiscipline resulting in penalties, and which should probably have resulted in more yellow cards in previous matches – as long as Scotland keep the heid. They would then play the All Blacks next Saturday and it would be an interesting one.
[1] joubert (noun):
Someone who makes an outlandish decision or statement with no factual basis whatsoever, without referring to the guy upstairs, and usually with the intention of unjustifiably destroying an opponent in their moment of glory.
Usage: “David Clegg of the Record is a joubert.”
As I said yesterday an 8 page tabloid newspapers coats around 7p (or less depending on printing numbers). Is’t it time for a “Wee Blue Not The Daily Record” newspaper hammering the liars at the Record and hitting them with derision which is the most effective political tool.
We have the distributing power to put out 15,000 or 20,000 in every constituency and make these bastards frightened of us.
We should be using our strength to destroy the Record. And then we move on to the Mail and the Express and the Sun
The “Record”is just one part of a huge establishment media machine designed, in our case, to thwart our drive towards independence.
It wont work of course, because we will eventually gain our freedom from Westminster, but what it will do is make life a little more difficult for us to achive our aim.
The good news is of course that the sales of these “newspapers”are going through the floor, and yet they continue to peddle their lies in the full knowledge that they are contributing to their own demise.
Which makes me wonder if there are deals, possibly financial, with the establishment, in order to keep them solvent, at least until the war is lost?
I’ve no idea who Frances Barber is. Does he / she work at Francis John Hairdressing?
yesindyref2 says:
“I’ve no idea who Frances Barber is.”
Googled to find out who this person is …
link to en.m.wikipedia.org
… another of those BritNats who judge we Scots by their own attitudes. Evidence, if it were needed, that we aren’t actually like them!
@yesindyref2 –
‘Does he / she work at Francis John Hairdressing?’
Quite possibly, between jobs. She’s an actress.
I think Ms Barber was an actress.
Shrimp’s right on the nail though. Why would you hate someone because of where they were born?
It is certainly the case that it is the unionist politicians in Scotland who keep going on and on about independence and referendums. Cognitive dissonance is clearly a problem for Willie Rennie, Davidson etc. The SNP have only really mentioned it in response to questions from unionist politicians and the MSM. Nicola Sturgeon has mentioned it a couple of times at SNP conference, but that is more of a reassurance thing to SNP members than anything else. Poor old Rennie thinks that we should all move on from the independence referendum last year, but the problem is he and his fellow unionists are obsessed by the issue and keep bringing it up themselves! Don’t mention the referendum/war Willie Fawlty. 😀
Dratted lag!
I see Ian and galamcennalath have the right of it already.
This oil ‘story’ from the Broken Record is just a regurgitated Look-squirrel! attempting to distract their readers from the real story des nos jours, EVEL.
Yes, they do mention EVEL within the two-page oil-squirrel, but look at the devious way they have done it: bottom of the second page and printed over a shade of ink that is very similar to that of the ‘sea’ which the oil platform sits rendering it easy to miss. Also its headline is barely larger than that of the print in the main body of the article – and even using the word ‘article’ is verging on a misuse of the noun so little information does it contain within.
Utterly blatant diversionary propaganda tactics to divert from the real story which is EVEL.
Oh, those sneaky little shits at the Broken Record can say, ‘No, we didn’t hide the EVEL story. We printed it on page 9 of Friday, October 23’s edition.’ Which is true. But they have deliberately regurgitated the oil-squirrel to ‘cover’ the importance of EVEL which is the story that they should be featuring on their front page, and second, and third. And they know it too.
Pure scum. Never forgotten. Never forgiven. May the Broken Record’s demise be a painful one.
effigy @8.07 re Danny Alexander
The now failed politician who sold his soul to the Tory’s may be about to get his bankers reward for services rendered. A Director at CAIIB. 9 years ago the PR/Communications officer for The Cairngorm Park. You see it’s not what you know but who you know in Tory UK.
Bloomberg
Danny Alexander, the former U.K. Chief Secretary to the Treasury who lost his job and his parliamentary seat in May’s general election, is in the running to join China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, according to two people familiar with the appointment process.
Thanks Ian / galamcennalath / Macart.
Ah. Madame Kovarian, now I know who she is. It was a good part, as far as Dr Who goes these days.
@Truth-
Saw only my second “no thanks” car sticker today.
What an embarrassment driving around proclaiming what a feart ignoramus you are
Probably that prick Davy
@johnking –
I take it the 77th dont work weekends?
See above john, Davy is oot in the car 😀
Not had time to read many commente yet, but as always an excellent analysis. The graphic says it all, la li la.
On another note I was walking through St. Andrews Square in Edinburgh this evening. Came across some boards with photos by Shelter, black and white, of destitiution in Scotland, mostly from 1970. My god it looks like 1770! I had to hold back the tears, and all this under the so called union, all on Labour and Tory watch. Some in Glasgow, some Edinburgh.
We were very poor in NE England but whether housing conditions were that bad anywhere, well, I can’t say but our council house was a bloody palace compared to those houses, I mean crumbling buildings pretending to be habitable.
Just exactly what were liebour and tory doing to help the people of Scotland back in the good ol days?
Looks to me like Scotland was always last, not even an afterthought. Maybe liebour injected some cash into Scotland after that? All that industry, land, palaces and fishing etc. Where did the money go?
O/T but just for the record – Scottish LibDem conference being held in the Vine Venue in Dunfermline.
Maximum capacity 550.
The enemies of free will run out of ammunition: link to wp.me
Kezia Dugdale The Scotsman article pulled
Do as I do, and use the copies of The National to cover up those offensive Daily Records…
I want to see the Sunday Herald take on this article, on thier front page, why not?, it’s about time we had a print paper war.
Clegg, like the winged beastie , would suck the life blood out of Scotland without a second thought.
@yesindyref2 –
Remember seeing her playing one of the nasty sisters in King Lear, and she was superb. In the sketches with The Two Johns in the Rory Bremner show she played a bitchy upper-middle-class wife. She seems to be typecast as a bit of a cranky, plotting vamp.
Who knows? Perhaps she’s just staying in character and generating a wee bit of publicity into the bargain…‘I was only fifty-seven! I needed the money!’,/I>
“Its the economy stupid”. I hate that saying. When you look at most problems in the current age thay all seem to be caused by “the stupid economy”.
P.s. And the Sunday Herald’s front page header should read “Tell the truth stupid”!.
@Alistair (8.42) –
Does this mean that Danny Alexander will actually be going to China?
Result!
‘Aye, think ye’s can fuck-up oor steel industry, eh? Well, goes-around comes-around an’ aw that shite, so here ye’s are – take this!’:
You would expect this Look-an oily squirrel! regurgitated non-story from the likes of the harder rightwing press coming out of Engurrlund, but from the leftwing(!), Labour-supporting “Scotland’s champion”(!)…?
It’s like when you discuss the tactics of the Tories. Yes, they’re horrible, uncaring, contemptible bastards who don’t care about Scotland or its people, only its resources. Yet, everyone knows that and doesn’t expect anything else. They do what it says on the Tory tin.
And then we come to Labour’s Scottish Branch. And Christ almighty, where to start? Suffice to say that their behaviour since the referendum campaign has woken many people up to what a rubbish, shitty job they did and have done in Scotland. For those people, they don’t know what they represent anymore. They don’t do what it is that it says on the Labour tin.
And the referendum campaign it was that truly exposed them as nothing more than just another member of the British Establishment. To cap it all, they were the willing fags for the Tories’ dirty work, doing Scotland down day after day after day.
And for that treachery they paid the price.
And yet. The majority of the media in Scotand is still continuing in the same manner as they did pre-referendum. And here is the Scratched Record giving us a prime example of such.
Well, fuck’em. If that’s the way they want to go out of business who am I, or anyone else, to stop them.
The pro-unionist media is a blight on Scotland and it will be a much, much better place when they are consigned to the rubbish bin of an independent Scotland’s history.
New figures published by the IMF on 10 October 2015 report British government deficit this year will still be bigger than Greece’s.
The UK’s deficit in 2015 will be 4.25% as a percentage of GDP – Osborne’s preferred metric – while Greece’s will be 4.17%. The only advanced economy with a higher deficit than the UK this year is Spain
We just have to look at similar sized countries in Europe to see Scotland’s potential, and how we are currently being held back within an unequal union focused on London.
Obviously Norway is way ahead of everyone.
But Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Netherlands, have far less oil than Scotland, yet much higher GNP’s and living standards.
When next years figures are available, with lower oil revenues reflected, we will see an even bigger difference between us and them, and how much we are held back in comparison.
Even Ireland which went through hard times, is recovering rapidly and is the fastest growing economy in Europe for the second year in a row.
link to theguardian.com
When was the last time Scotland’s growth rate was anywhere near 6% ?
A union focused on London is a ball and chain around our economy.
Well I never thought I’d see the day that Kezia’s ‘Nasty Cybernat’ coupon photie in the Vile could be bettered but she has raised the bar with this one…
Here’s a link to Shereen’s show this morning.
WOS gets positive (!!) mention at 1:12.00, during discussion on EVEL which kicks off at 1:06.00
Okay, the dude who brought up Rev’s point managed to lower his voice and say ‘Wings Over Scotland’ even faster than the guys who read out the ‘small print’ at the end of radio ads, and added ‘which we all know has its issues…’ but he then referred to the site as ‘he’ and did accurately repeat the point Rev raised about the number of ex-Prime Ministers who would not have been able to take up the post under the new rules. (Interesting use of ‘we’ in ‘we all know…’ – no-one asked him who the hell who or what he was on about.)
So, fair play to Shereen and whoever that dude was – all-in, they devoted almost nine minutes to discussing EVEL. Let’s give credit where it’s due, in the hope, forlorn though it may be, that some of Shereen’s peers will take note.
All we want, and all we’ve ever asked for, is a level playing-field. Compared to the rest of the MSM efforts in the past few days, this came pretty close.
link to bbc.co.uk
The fire within still burns brightly. I have read every thread and comment today, and it is clear that the fires of resistance are being stoked. Such passion only comes with real conviction, and I am glad to be one of you.
There is not a shred of doubt in my mind we will win sooner or later. Such commitment cannot go unrewarded.
Thank you all. We stand or fall together.
I’m a bit disappointed that Wings is giving the DR the attention. I don’t want to draw the attention of FOCUS, but I think we all know who the DR’s target market is.
If you ever want to really piss an old Hun off, wait until he says something racist or sectarian and act surprised as you say “waw, I thought you were respectable…” They tend to go potty.
That’s the funny thing about the old guys that buy the Record, they think they’re respectable, establishment types. The reality, of course, is that most of them are basically trailer trash with the most vile social values imaginable.
Good luck convincing those cavemen on independence…
Clegg is not just a unionist: he’s an Ulster Unionist. And you know what sort of a unionist that is.
What we don’t know is what sort of education, knowledge, and ability he has to comment with any authority about anything in Scotland, or about any aspect of economics, because if he had any such authority, he wouldn’t have to be a journalist, and certainly not one who works for the Daily Record.
Ian Brotherhood, I listened to the show earlier and thought it was a typical example of BBC Scotland pish. The discussion had the usual hawk on one hand, attacking the SNP and very positive about EVEL and selling us all down the river. On the other side was someone who was pretty weak in opposition to EVEL with the debating skills of a born again Christian. I didn’t catch their names.
Rev has done the usual great job, and all on here recognise that with thier comments, but meanwhile who is able to take on D. Clegg, and the Daily Record in a printed public forum, otherwise “they” will take it that they can continue with immunity.
I thought I’d take a wee look to see what they’re saying on Labour Hame and decided while I was on to see if they would accept a wee comment
So I advised them to embrace Independence or be like Buzz Light year and head for oblivion and beyond, it went into moderation for a while then they accepted it and posted it
Is that normal for that site to print stuff they’re supposed to be against, it’s never happened to me before
@Bob Mack (9.32)
‘The fire within still burns brightly.’
Kin right it does. Flickers with a’body depending on personal circumstances, but we’ve got these appalling people by the baws and we can take turns having a right good squeeze.
One question – which is stronger? Our grip? Or their baws?
Brillo is on the sherry and arguing with Stu, fin hilarious, check wings twitter feed brilliant
catfight with brillo
BBC2 “Glasgow Big Night Out” ….. Stanley Baxter ” there’s swathes of them that are anti English, and the lower you go down in the classes the worse it gets” ……. Used to find him really funny……. That was about 40yrs ago……. Give me Ken Dodd any day
@Croompenstein
Yes, Andrew Neil hides behind himself out of cowardice rather than face Rev Stu on his own twisted politics program.
There’s a lof of great people born in Paisley, made good honest successes of themselves in the UK and Worldwide.
Andrew Neil isn’t one of them.
@grendal 8.57
Totally and every day
Andrew Neil’s entire livelihood depends on an existence in London and connections there; he lives in Knightsbridge – why should we expect him to go out of his way to support Scottish autonomy no matter argument in its favour?
Andrew Neil’s behaviour on Twitter effectively rules out any possibility of Rev Stu ever appearing on any of his shows.
Why on earth would the heir to Paxo ever want to avoid a showdown?
@Angra Mainyu (9.42) –
Pish or not, Shereen’s show did host a discussion about EVEL, and important information of interest to the audience – sourced on this site – was properly credited (no matter how grudgingly) by the participant who raised it. He could just as easily have made the observation and claimed it as his own.
I would draw your attention to this:
‘Wings Over Scotland is a (mainly) Scottish political media digest and monitor, which also offers its own commentary.’
Please note the word ‘monitor’. Rev has no staff, and he can’t possibly keep across everything that’s happening in MSM 24/7, so we all keep our eyes peeled and ears open for bits and bobs which are relevant to the general indy debate, and share stuff as and when we find it. That doesn’t mean that we are passive consumers of whatever media organ the information happened to be in.
Anyway, congratulations on listening to the whole show. Someone has to. (As it happens, I only overheard ten minutes or so, while I was loading the dishwasher.) 🙂
Meanwhile, the only suicidal Norwegian is Ronnie Deila! 🙂
Ian, I only listen to confirm my suspicions. I’m not sure if a rigged debate is better than no debate at all but It’s a fairly moot point.
It feels like they have really turned up the propaganda to fever pitched levels this week.
@Angra Mainyu –
Agreed.
‘They’ were throwing damp twigs on the fire before the SNP conference got underway. And it’s not working.
Their answer? Throw on more.
At the rate they’re going, there’ll be no twigs left before the turn of the year, let alone next May.
They need to change the record, in every meaning of the phrase.
It’s 2 am now folks. My mistake it’s 1 am now. Remember to put back all those clocks and watches. Welcome back GMT.
Stephen.
Anyone know anything about the political driving force behind the Daily Record? David Clegg the Irishman (another singular man (non Scot) with his wee cohort Chrichton) who was master of the DUPING VOW. The driving force behind MSM propaganda in the West of Scotland. What motivates him?
Should media collectively be regarded as a strategic asset? There is a case for limiting foreign ownership of newspapers and TV Stations to 49% max, otherwise there is the possibility (certainty) that it will be used to undemocratically influence the nations opinions.
We would of course have to ensure that Bath becomes a Scottish enclave, in the manner of Spannish/Moroccan Ceuta or Melilla, within England.
“Wait a minute – artificially high interest rates? Why? The cost of borrowing has never been lower than it is now. Indeed, for governments it’s effectively more or less zero.”
Em. Scottish Government debt would have junk bond status for the reasons a) Scotland would be a brand new country (ie, no credit history); and b) its annual borrowings, unless there were savage public sector spending cuts, would have to be upwards of 10% GDP.
Further, your central premise – that a lower petrol price and people having a few more quid a week to spend in shops will somehow make up for the billions of pounds that are being lost to the economy – is, frankly, absurd. Independence or no, the North East of Scotland is about to experience an economic metldown and outward migration similar to that experienced by Detroit over the last 20 years. Unless there is massive government intervention to keep the area afloat (and there won’t be, because it would bankrupt the country), this is certain.
The worst part of your article is that you accuse Davie Clegg of not coming up with any hard evidence to back up his case – while you do EXACTLY the same! Coming up with a few selective quotes and saying that the price of fuel has fallen 25% isn’t any sort of evidence at all.
I don’t mean you any disrespect – in fact, as a businessman I highly respect your business model (indeed, I wish I’d come up with it!) – but your articles and the myriad comments under them demonstrate a very worrying lack of basic reasoning and logic amongst a section of the Scottish population. And I guess we, as a society, are all to blame for that, for having built an education system that is, frankly, crap.
“Further, your central premise – that a lower petrol price and people having a few more quid a week to spend in shops will somehow make up for the billions of pounds that are being lost to the economy – is, frankly, absurd.”
Feel free to pop off and explain that to Prof. Ashcroft and his pals at the Fraser Of Allander Institute. They’re the ones who said it, not me.
Yes, Albaman, I too like to cover up Daily Records with The National….but its very difficult to find a copy of the National after about 10.30am to cover up the prodigious mass of Daily Records that is usually present even by 8pm. Sound commercialism dictates that spare capacity at the Record should be employed in a deal to run an evening edition of The National when their presses are knocking out the Evening Times.
And it would save all that diesel in the trucks taking their returns to the tip.
Sales of the Daily Record will soon have plummeted so low they are physically in the gutter. Along with their editor and ‘journalists’…
Not even the fish and chips will miss it.
Petra, good question.
I think by and large they play the tunes their narrow minded readership want to hear. Based on what I see, that demographic consists largely of men who are over 60, male chauvinists, racists, who (as I said) somehow think they are establishmental.
They are very easy to spot as they wear what I would describe as uniforms; pressed trousers, v neck jumpers with shirts, light rain coats, and often bonnets.
In their minds they probably think they come across as middle class country squires or something. And they often suffer from delusions about their roles in wars and history generally, despite the arithmetic suggesting they most likely were not old enough to have been involved.
They hold this country back because papers like the DR and other institutions pander to them more than they should, but for the most part they are quite poor and powerless; this might explain their anger and bitterness. The trouble of course is that they are angry and bitter at the wrong people and things.
It’s hard to feel sorry for them when they are overtly racists, talk to and treat women like shit, are extremely xenophobic, and despite being criminally undereducated think they have the answers to everything. You will never win them over to independence — ever.
PS. It is clear that I am generalising above, no need to point out that not all people over 60 are like this or any other exceptions to my generalisations. The bottom line is that I am infallible and if you think I made a mistake it’s probably because you aren’t smart enough to get some wider or more important point….
7 BILLION!!!
My God, next they’ll be saying that Gideon runs the UK at a surplus.
The Daily Record – Scotland’s Champion dog turd lifting device.
@ Dan
“Em. Scottish Government debt would have junk bond status for the reasons a) Scotland would be a brand new country (ie, no credit history); and b) its annual borrowings, unless there were savage public sector spending cuts, would have to be upwards of 10% GDP.”
Could you give us a source for your information Dan?
Standard and Poor’s seem to disagree with you.
It’s a long read Dan and full of detail but worth a look.
link to worldofstuart.excellentcontent.com
Dan Camus – I already explained in a few sentences why Scotland won’t be short of cash. Those huge cuts you insist are necessary simply won’t be necessary because if we choose not to, we have no reason to pay for any the UK’s accumulated debt and no reason to assume responsibility for the state pension.
On debt, there are very strong arguments that “Scotland” did not, within the Union, accumulate much of that debt. Certainly, Scotland voted strongly against the governments who racked up that debt and who built the economic model on which it rests. Yes, we voted Labour too and they have to take some responsibility, but we don’t even vote for them any more anyway. Given those facts, it’s relatively easy to argue a moral case for us REFUSING to take on responsibility for it.
On pensions, quite frankly, it’s not any person’s fault, much less the fault of the Scottish Government, that NI has never actually been invested, nor that a Norway-style pension fund wasn’t created from our oil wealth when it first appeared in the 70s (nor even when we were still raking it in in the 90s.) But all that money was paid to HM Treasury so it’s HM Treasury that made the deal with those pensioners.
Having said all that, the new Scottish government WILL have to borrow. The costs of establishing the new state, building embassies, building any other infrastructure and simply managing the cashflow of national finances will require some sort of borrowing. Additionally, every sensible person now surely knows that within our present monetary systems, governments HAVE to run a deficit or they force a collapse in the economy. So yes, borrowing will be necessary. But there’s no evidence that Scotland would get “junk bond” status or anything like it. S&P’s said we’d have challenges, sure, but they also said that EVEN WITHOUT OIL, we would qualify for their “highest economic assessment.” You could argue that we’ve essentially been “pre-approved” for a AAA rating. In reality, with no credit history, AAA is unlikely. Even then, given that the UK government, with over a trillion in debt already, is still borrowing at net-POSITIVE interest rates should mean that even if it does cost us a little more to borrow, the lack of accumulated debt interest as a drain on our resources, the existence of a quantifiable national asset like oil, the overall strength of the Scottish economy and the inevitable boost to employment and yes, national confidence, that will emerge after independence should mean we’re borrowing at very affordable rates. What’s more, those “setting up the country” bonds would likely be very long-term, so we wouldn’t need to worry about the repayments for quite a while anyway.
@Dan
As a businessman I’m sure you know who Ernst & Young are:
“The EY ITEM Club also says the OBR is expected to revise down down its forecast for borrowing in 2015/16 by £6bn.
The backdrop for the improved economic picture is the plunging oil price, which as well as boosting the outlook for growth will, by reducing inflation, help to reduce some of the Government’s spending commitments, says the forecaster.”
(March 2015)
Looking up EY Item club I found this:
“EY have been sole sponsors of the ITEM Club for 25 years. It is the only non-governmental forecasting group to use HM Treasury’s model of the UK economy.”
Worth noting for Indy Ref 2 when it comes along, and there are “conflicts” where some reports say Scotland will become a dustbowl worse than the 30s depression. And some don’t.
This guy knows what the price of oil will be in the future.
He’s not cheap to hire but I reckon he’d help Scotland big time.
link to armstrongeconomics.com
I only scan through the record at one of my local libraries to stay informed about what that rag is spouting.
What I find interesting when unionists argue against Scottish independence is that none of them are able to
put forward a credible far less a coherent case for Scotland remaining as part of this bankrupt union.
They should be explaining why after 300 years of being in this union is Scotland such an economic basket case?
then that surely confirms that the union has and continues to be bad for Scotland.
I only scan through the record at my local library
to keep myself informed about what that rag is spouting.
What I find interesting is the unionists when arguing against Scottish Independence can’t put forward a coherent far less a credible case for Scotland remaining as part of the UK.
If after being part of the union for 300 years, Scotland is such an economic basket case as they claim it is.
Then that must mean by their own argument that the union has and continues to bad for Scotland.
sorry typo in my post@12.20pm
it should have read as that must mean the union has and continues to be bad for Scotland.
The daily record, the daily mail, the glass is always half empty. never half full they are are a bunch of losers. Life under the SNP is never good enough. What will they do in 9years when all their readers are dead and their papers are finished.
[…] constantly told Scotland would be a financial basket-case as a result of falling North Sea revenues, while the UK government’s promises of a possible […]