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A little more certainty

Posted on May 09, 2017 by

The BBC has just published an article explaining its controversial claim that the SNP actually lost seats at last week’s council elections, despite going from 425 to 431. The analysis was carried out by Prof. David Denver of Lancaster University, and we’d asked him about it yesterday.

He’d very kindly sent us a copy of the same article he’d sent the Beeb. We attach it below. We’ve highlighted in bold the only bits that didn’t make it into the BBC piece.

When the boundaries of Parliamentary constituencies change, it is clearly vital for analysts to have an idea of what the results of the previous election would have been had the new boundaries been in force and had people voted exactly as they did in their old constituencies.

There is a well-established way of doing this.

Since constituencies are made up of wards we can redistribute votes in old constituencies to newly-created ones making use of local election results. I have done this for Scottish constituencies after every boundary revision since 1980.

This year, I had a go at doing the same for Scottish wards for which new boundaries came into force in 2017. The problem is, of course, that there are no smaller divisions of wards for which we have voting figures which could be re-assembled in to the new wards.

Of the 354 new wards created, 151 were unchanged as compared with 2012, 34 had very small changes and 68 had what I defined as ‘minor’ changes – involving up to 10% of the electorate.

For these, the only differences between actual and notional results registered were if the number of councillors to be elected changed.

If the number declined by 1 then the last candidate to be elected in 2012 was deducted; if the number increased then the next candidate who would have been elected was added. Published detailed breakdowns of the various count stages allow this to be done.

For wards which experienced a ‘major’ change (10-30% of electorate involved) or could be described as ‘new’, I scrutinised maps of the old and new wards to ascertain which parts of old wards made up the new.

I then transferred votes proportionately from the old to the new (and sometimes using local knowledge and past experience of local elections) to get an estimate of how things would have worked out in the latter.

This is certainly a rough and ready way of doing things but there doesn’t appear to be any alternative.

The overall result of this exercise was as follows:

Actual seats/Notional seats

Con 115/112
Lab 394/395
LibDem 71/70
SNP 424/438
Ind 201/194
Green 14/14
Other 4/4
Total 1223/1227

The SNP increase of 14 is largely explained by increases in the number of councillors to be elected. In five councils (Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire, Edinburgh, Glasgow, North Ayrshire, and North Lanarkshire) my estimates gave the SNP 16 extra seats compared to the actual 2012 results – but there was an increase of 25 in the number of seats available in these council areas.

We can’t imagine why the BBC chose to leave those two paragraphs out.

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    1. 09 05 17 18:56

      A little more certainty | speymouth

    197 to “A little more certainty”

    1. Proud Cybernat says:

      BBC practising in how to turn a YES #scotref win into a NO-tional win, obviously.

    2. jimnarlene says:

      Strange eh? You’d almost think they were doing it deliberately.

    3. Auld Rock says:

      Wishing no offence to the Prof when it’s all boiled down it’s a guestimate no more, no less.

      Auld Rock

    4. farrochie says:

      “This is certainly a rough and ready way of doing things but there doesn’t appear to be any alternative.”

      There is an alternative. You could take the 151 unchanged wards and use these as a sample for comparing the two elections.

    5. Ian McCubbin says:

      Again Stu well done for highlighting the full facts.
      No reply yet from BBC to me for my complaint about there inaccuracy in this area.

    6. Capella says:

      What I can’t imagine is why the BBC decided to “correct” the 2012 figures at all. Is this standard practice with all election reporting and analysis?

      In the case of Aberdeenshire, for example, they did not “correct” the 2012 total because, if they had, the SNP would only have lost 2 seats and not the 9 they recorded. It looks like they only correct the totals if it makes the SNP look as if it is losing seats.

      The media narrative is obviously that “the honeymoon is over”. All evidence to the contrary will be deleted.

    7. John MacRae says:

      Colour me astonished.

      John.

    8. jfngw says:

      There was an alternative, just give the basic numbers by region and mention if there has been a change in the total number of seats there. Just as accurate as making up results. At least at the end of it the change in seats would be accurate even if the total number of seats has changed. They may as well brought back Mystic Meg to guestimate the results.

    9. Laing French says:

      As you said ‘ certainly rough and ready ‘ but how does that help the public on outcomes? It is neither clear nor in my special education experience, coherent understandable or logical?
      More likely it was a design for the BBC propaganda and worded so. It was certainly not written for the public at large. Let me make this simple so that even acedemics can understand.
      Too many cooks spoil the broth, in your case the soup is tainted. I hope you enjoy the BBC cheque? We are not amused!

    10. Marcia says:

      I doubt if you can recalculate the 2012 STV results into notional wards. Personal votes count for more in local elections and that would have had an effect in all the revised wards.

    11. Chitterinlicht says:

      I try not to bash the BBC but FFS!

    12. G H Graham says:

      The BBC is a publicly funded propaganda channel used by the British Establishment to protect its pro British interests even if it is to the detriment of British people who do not conform to the social, cultural & political norms expected of them.

      It’s primary objective is to glorify Britain to citizens at home & foreigners abroad by deifying the Royal Family, broadcasting mind numbing game shows which appeal by taking the piss out of people with funny accents from Ireland, Scotland & Wales as well as celebrating cultural icons such as Rolf Harris & Jimmy Saville right up to the point when they are convicted of criminal behaviour.

      It is customary of the BBC to give disproportionate air time to its lobbyists who are often seen to be working for the Conservative Party or UKIP. Sometimes both cos some of them flip flop between parties but the desired outcome is the same; reduce immigration, deregulate the labour market, punish people for getting ill, sneer at anyone who is considered a foreigner & remind the general public every November that England won WW2 all by itself.

      People who vote for the Green Party, Plaid Cymru or the SNP are considered subversives so the BBC focuses much of its resources to inform the electorate that Scotland is a rubbish country & that it only survives due to an annual fiscal subsidy provided by the good people of London. And that this wouldn’t need to happen if everyone just ate their cereal & voted Labour. Preferably the Conservatives actually but even London knows Kezia Dugdale couldn’t run a hot bath even if her life depended on it.

    13. Morag says:

      There’s an obvious problem right there. If a ward has had a councillor added, he has assumed the next candidate on the count would have been elected. But if there had been another seat going, parties might well have decided to stand more candidates.

      The whole exercise is way too speculative to stand a moment’s scrutiny.

    14. Ian Smith says:

      Why o why are we or for that matter anyone surprised at the lack of proper journalism from the BBC British Biased Conservatives, they LIED during indyref they LIED @general election 2015 again at council elections 2017 and now again on run up to 2017 general election.
      Time for large scale changes to funding of whole cooperation.

    15. clan rossy says:

      2+5+22+5=34 = snp minus 26 seats

      2+5+2+5=165 = con plus 354 seats

      cons win bbc.

      sorted.

    16. Iain Cormack says:

      The BBC
      The truth.
      Nothing in common.

    17. Peter Macbeastie says:

      The BBC are liars. They primarily do so by misrepresentation and, as here, omission.

      Of course, as Scots we all know the BBC does this. Time and time again this website and others have pointed out that they do it and shown examples that prove the point. They lie.

      Now, Facebook have just put out adverts on how to deal with fake news. I can only imagine Facebook views the BBC as a reliable source and perhaps for some things it is, although I’m buggered if I know what.

      But not Scotland. You cannot trust the BBC on Scotland. You also won’t find any difference in the Facebook advice to check with other sources to first verify your claims. Because the Unionist press will all print the same lies. Dozens of sources, all printing the same bollocks you know to be a lie.

      No point in seeking to verify from other places when they’re all singing from the same song sheet.

    18. winifred mccartney says:

      I too complained to the BBC not even a case number yet – I am persona non gratis – if they have written up the actual results and then given the notional results they must just have go away with it but they have managed to prove all by themselves that they are blatantly biased and corrupt and not only that but they put their employees in a postion where they are required to lie for them.

      Notional results – bbc MAKING UP the news – when I thought they were to supposed to inform us of the news but forgot – they are just following orders.

    19. Janet says:

      The Cabinet Office has a lot to answer for.

    20. Dan Huil says:

      bbc scum. Paying the bbc tax gives them licence to lie. Don’t pay the bbc tax.

    21. Ken500 says:

      Still no mention of STV in Scotland. His many 1st Preference votes went in the bin. Or the 34,000 (SNP votes?) 1st and 2nd marked with a cross. Instead of a number.

      Does anyone really believe half of Scotland can’t read. What a load of nonsense.

      Scotland has one of the best education system in the world. 30% go to University from school. 25% mature students. 55%. 15% Recipocal EU students. Foreign students paying the full costs. Students from elsewhere getting a subsidised Uni education.

      Scotland (5million) has 15 Universities. Plus colleges. 100k apprentenceships.

      Finland (5million) 40% go to University. 10 Universities. Plus colleges.

      China (1.2Billion) 40% go to University. 2200 Universities. Colleges.

      South Korea (100million) 34% are out of education by age 15. 40% of pop go to university. 45 Public Universities. 155 others. Plus Colleges. Pupils study from 8 am till 12 midnight. Cruelty and abuse of children. Some commit suicide. There are moves to change the system.

      Fees are low in Scotland. Students get a full loan. Scotland was one of the first countries in the world to have tertiary education.

      Education/NHS funding has increased in Scotland. Despite cuts from Westminster. The Scottish budget has been cut 10% by Westminster. The UK Union costs Scotland £20Billion a year. The EU costs Nothing and brings £Billions of investment. The Oil & Gas sector is taxed at 40%, since Jan 2016. 5 jobs Osbourne was taxing the Oil sector at 60% to 80% when the price had fallen. Losing £Billions and 120,000 jobs in Scotland.

    22. Davie says:

      That certainly fits in with the notional GERS figures.. See the too wee, too stupid, too poor thing, after those local election results i’m willing to concede that the Tories were right about the too stupid part..

    23. jfngw says:

      I’ll give the BBC the benefit of the doubt that they possibly thought this was a more accurate way to measure changes in a region. But when they saw the nonsense of their process they should have dropped it and just used the accurate totals. They are now trying to cover up the fact that their process was seriously flawed, but knowing the egos of the news staff at the BBC they will continue to defend it even when everyone else can see it’s shortcomings.

    24. davidb says:

      Sitting councillors have an advantage at local elections. Had 14 more SNP been elected they may have been re-elected this year, possibly at the expense of other party unelected councillors who did get re-elected.

      Further, in our council 3 SNP ( I think ) elected in 2012 defected to various other parties/ or status( independents for instance ) over their term.

      The whole idea that an increase in actual seats is not an increase is semantics. The Truth Ministry are a tool of the state and nothing they ever say should be treated except with caution.

    25. Davy says:

      These results have of course been re-worked by the BBC by staff extensively trained at the D Hothersal-J Ballie collage of Spin-accountancy, renowned for using the I Gray method of calculation.

      Which is guaranteed never to produce a favourable result for the SNP, nor to make any sense when used in a labour policy.

      If in doubt LIE.

    26. Reluctant Nationalist says:

      @ Peter Macbeastie: “I can only imagine Facebook views the BBC as a reliable source…”
      _______________________________

      Yeah, I bet they do; especially since the BBC invests tens of millions in Facebook for its staff pensions.

      Bent as a nine-bob note.

    27. rigmac7 says:

      http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/39864684

      Looks like a bye election in Annandale South – already.
      Forgive me, but wtf are some people thinking standing for public office with that in the background, knowing it will be used in media

    28. crazycat says:

      @ Marcia at 6.35

      Yes, exactly.

      Someone who voted for his cousin and didn’t vote for the man who sold him a dodgy car 20 years ago might behave very differently with a completely different list of names on his ballot paper.

    29. geeo says:

      Meanwhile…back at the half hour BBC TORY party election broadcast….BOAKING SYCOPHANTIC GUFF.

    30. Cuilean says:

      I was a polling agent last Thursday and was among first to vote at my polling station at 7 am. Three people employed by the Council’s returning officer to man the station all told me that it was ok to put a cross or a tick in the box – so long as I only voted once. I challenged them but they were adamant.

      I had to read out to the three people issuing this public misinformation the instructions on the posters in the ballot booths which had printed in red, that to put anything other than numbers may invalidate your vote.

      They then said they would stop telling people that a tick or a cross was alright but how do I know this? They were totally clueless.

      If the folks manning the polling stations don’t know what they are doing, (or have not been properly trained by the returning officer) how can they (the Council) expect us (the voters) to get it right?

      Needless to say, our Council area had a very high number of spoiled ballot papers.

      We had four different forms of voting in Scotland. (a) Westminster (b) Holyrood (c) Council (d) European Parliament.

      I could weep.

    31. mike d says:

      Ken 500 6.52 pm. I wonder how many of those snp first preference votes marked with a straight one,could have been altered to look like a cross?? Or am i just being paranoid?.

    32. Hermodr says:

      Just had the pleasure o seeing the PM on The One Show there; fawning interview, allowing her the party soundbites, and then onto a feature about how to spot ‘fake news’. Like a Simpsons joke; a parody but played straight.

      Also noticed today that my local ASDA was either out of, or has perhaps stopped stocking, The National. Fascist rags the Mail and the Express were displayed prominently.

    33. Macart says:

      You can’t see it, but there’s a look of shock, shock I tell you, on my kisser right now. 😮

    34. Muscleguy says:

      Marcia is correct, from a scientific p.o.v. the existence of personal votes for well known candidates invalidates many of the assumptions here. Part of why the prof admits it is ‘rough and ready’. All the Independents in the North and Islands will also make the method imprecise. I note the BBC treats them as though Independent is a political party which is wrong.

      Whenever you use a method with known and obvious limitations you need to be upfront about those and what it means about what conclusions you can draw and the errors inherent in it. To remove those caveats when publishing it would be research misconduct in science.

    35. eric says:

      Re: Wards being the smallest unit of voting into available. My recollection is that polling district (which make up Wards) results are available to parties and candidates. Isn’t that right?

    36. RogueCoder says:

      Evening folks,

      It’s high time we gave Captain Snackbeard the heave-ho. Mairi McAllan is standing for the SNP against Mundell in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. She’s a smart cookie, graduated form Glasgow Law, and could well be Nicola 2.0 in a few years.

      But she’s got a battle on her hands. Tories fight dirty. If you’ve got any spare pennies left, this is an excellent place to lodge them: http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/elect-mairi-mcallan/

      Just imagine the joy you would be spreading if we manage to unseat Fluffy!

    37. Rory says:

      Gobsmacked & astonished. Another example in (bold) Black & White of the BBC’s anti-SNP stance.

    38. Robert J. Sutherland says:

      mike d @ 19:21,

      The typical errors were either multiple crosses or multiple uses of the same digit against different candidates of the same party, not some mixture of the two. (And incidentally, this affected Labour as much as the SNP.) Some people placed crosses and numbers beside each other (?), and where the numbers were clear, not simply “crossed-out”, and not repeated, they were accepted.

      You should know that the operative policy is to aim to accept every ballot possible, but some are plainly so out of order that they don’t signify anything.

      The ballots are taken out of sealed boxes and directly scanned into the system. It’s a very busy time doing all this stuff, no time left to “play fast and loose”! The only manual “interference” available is the semi-automated correction of the numeric values in a separate set of boxes filled-in by the system, not on the original marks. (Due as much to recognition errors – “1”‘s and “7”s unsurprisingly being frequently confused – as to detecting errors made by the voter.) There’s a lot of scrutiny. Everything is visible to onlookers while it’s all happening. I have eg. seen Labour people challenging a putative rejection of an SNP 1st pref. vote – they felt strongly that every vote matters, irrespective of party.

      It isn’t the process that’s the problem – it’s the voters! (And I don’t mean just those ignoramuses who haven’t bothered to learn how to vote properly, but also those who deliberately vote for horrible people!)

    39. Vestas says:

      Nicely done Stu.

    40. liz says:

      This notional seat stats may be interesting to academics but to the rest of us makes little sense.

      Surely number of seats won compared to the last time is more logical.

    41. Rock says:

      The Scottish media, led by the BBC, is the enemy of the Scottish people, in my view.

    42. Dr Jim says:

      John McTernan says Jeremy Corbyn’s useless and hasn’t a chance

      So there’s hope!

      They all hate Nicola Sturgeon like poison, they talk about her constantly, they invent her obsessions, they psychicly read her mind and tell us it’s full of Baad stuff

      Yet she’s the only party leader who can’t possibly be prime minister
      The stench of their fear gives them away

    43. chocolass says:

      Not sure what I just witnessed on the One Show
      but I’m in shock.

    44. Andrew Coulson says:

      Straight question:
      I don’t understand what the last paragraph is trying to tell me: sorry to be so thick, but could somebody please tell me simply what the good professor is saying here? Then I could perhaps understand why people are evidently upset at the BBC omitting it. Thank you in advance……

    45. Weechid says:

      Cuilean, Best thing to do in those circumstances is to report it to the returning officer. He can get instructions out to every polling station to correct the staff.

    46. RedStarTrout says:

      BBC reply to complaint.

      Thank you for contacting us about our recent news coverage on the local elections. We understand that you feel that the BBC has been incorrectly reporting the SNP’s results in 2017 compared with the outcome five years ago.

      In fact, there have been boundary changes since the local elections in 2012, and in order to compare ‘like with like’ when this has happened there is a long-established and accepted practice of producing ‘notional results.’

      These notional results were calculated by a leading academic expert in the field to show what the outcome might have been if the local elections five years ago had been fought on the new boundaries that exist today.

      A summary of his findings was published in a briefing for the Electoral Reform Society in advance of polling day and was used by other psephologists as a basis for their verdict on the election.

      We also used notional results for those English counties where there were boundary changes.

      Please be assured, however, that your comments have been passed onto senior members of BBC staff.

      Thank you again for contacting us.

    47. Ian Mackay says:

      On the wikipedia talk page on the Scottish Local elections 2017 they have bowed to the inevitable outcry on using the ‘notional’ BBC figures; probably as a result of no-one taking the BBC figures seriously and every other media outlet using simple arithmetic. Wikipedia does not want to be tarred with that same brush and takes its reputation a bit more seriously.

      The page has now been opened for editing.

    48. Ian says:

      Cuilean @7.13pm

      Completely agree. Forget FPTP but why have three PR voting systems. Unless there are good reasons for having more than one voting system, just go with one. Multiple systems distract from what should be the main focus – policies and past performance on previous policies. Those parties with no policies help wipe themselves out. Those that didn’t do what they said they would do, likewise. Focus on policies and the decision on who to vote for becomes crystal clear to those that are objective.

      Here’s a good example of focusing on a policy question with someone who thinks they can just waffle on without answering a specific question(four times). Just keep at it like this and they just look increasingly stupid/deceitful.

      http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/greg-clark-foreign-workers-uk-turn-away-economy-damage-business-secretary-net-migration-a7726001.html

    49. Glamaig says:

      I didnt see the One Show but I’ll take a wild guess that was nauseating, sycophantic, and a blatant PR advertisement for the Glorious Leader.

    50. Training Day says:

      There’s no doubt Donalda has been as good as her word – change has come to Pacific Quay.

      They’ve now abandoned any remaining vestige of balance, any leftover of impartiality, and decided, as all unaccountable organisations eventually do, that they might as well be hung for a sheep as for a lamb.

      In that they are merely mimicking their masters in London. The appearance of the Mays on the ‘One Show’ was a piece of obsequious leader-worship standing comparison with any totalitarian regime in history.

    51. shug says:

      BBC caught lying and manipulating again !!

      Great work Stu

      Call Kaye, call Kaye – ha ha

      They are not even good at lying now

      Hey Glasgow Herald here is a good story nor your non reporters

    52. CameronB Brodie says:

      Muscleguy
      Nice one, I’ve forgotten most of what little I knew about methodologies of social science research. 😉

    53. Gfaetheblock says:

      I am finding this whole debate somewhat dull. Be it +6 or -7, this is less than 2% of the total seat number. Surely the conversation is why the SNP is at the same level as 5 year ago, and what the proportion of vote is telling us? Feels like some folk would rather than get bogged down in meaningless detail rather than address the bigger issues, allowing their confirmation bias in BBC bias to drive the debate.

    54. crazycat says:

      @ Andrew Coulson

      In the 5 councils listed, there were in total 25 more seats in 2017 than in 2012. (The net increase in seats contested in 2017 over 2012 was, I think, 4, so there were reductions elsewhere.)

      By assuming that the best-placed loser in 2012 in each of those wards was in fact elected, the professor allocated 16 of those 25 seats to the SNP. (There must have been 2 “notional” losses elsewhere, giving a net “notional” increase of 14.)

      Therefore, the apparently higher support for the SNP in 2012 over 2017 was not a consequence of their being more popular back then, but of seats that didn’t exist at the time being credited with imaginary councillors. (The best-placed loser method is dodgy anyway for various reasons discussed by posters above.)

      If, instead, the change had been based on assuming a different winner for real seats, it would constitute evidence of a decline in popularity. The professor has admitted that more than the net notional increase (16 rather than 14) was a result of these imaginary seats.

      The BBC didn’t pass that admission on.

    55. mike cassidy says:

      STV system is clearly not fit for purpose.

      The comparison method highlighted here is clearly not fit for purpose.

      The BBC is clearly not fit for purpose.

      WTF!

      Andrew Coulson 8.13

      The BBC claimed the comparison method above revealed a loss in seats for the SNP. As the omitted paragraph reveals, the person who did the work made no such claim.

    56. HandandShrimp says:

      The BBC are beyond the pale. I would trust Pravda before the BBC these days.

      It isn’t just the SNP they are biased against either. Corbyn and the Greens get short shrift too. The Tories and UKIP on the other hand are constantly fluffed.

    57. Breeks says:

      May wants to bring back fox hunting. Does that not just make you sick?

      It’s like curing smallpox, then just when everybody relaxes, some imbecile opens a Petri dish in a breeze…

      Let’s hope Nicola can stretch the ScotRef voting franchise to include foxes, pheasants and raptors, anything just to get us out of this despicable Union.

    58. Colin says:

      Hi everyone this will be the first time I’ve made a comment on wings and I fear it may be a stupid contribution so apologies in advance. Can anyone explain to me why it was necessary to find out what the results of the council election would of been before the boundary changes ?
      And if there is a good reason for comparison then why would the outcome of the comparison be reported as the actual result?
      Once again apologies in advance. Thanks to the rev and all the contributors of this site , it’s makes such difference to read comments from other readers that are positive and proud of Scotland.

    59. Glamaig says:

      It would be so much simpler and easier to understand if they just gave the 2012 numbers vs 2017 numbers with a wee asterisk saying ‘some boundaries have changed so a direct comparison can’t reliably be done’.

      But no theyve got to go and spend taxpayers money on an estimate thats not reliable so they get the headline they had planned…

    60. Craig P says:

      “This is certainly a rough and ready way of doing things but there doesn’t appear to be any alternative.”

      I guess I’m not as clever as the prof because it seems obvious to compare actual seats won in 2012 vs actual seats won in 2017.

    61. Phil says:

      On STV voting operability by by normal chavs, such as me, how would one test the effectiveness of a wee change to the current STV? Namely, only allow digits ‘1, 2, 3’ (and ‘4’ where four councillors are to be elected) so no ballot paper has any more boxes numbered than the number of councillors.

      I can see the disadvantage of being unable to number the Tory ‘8’ so as to vote against them.

      But that may bring down the number of spoiled papers and make the whole STV enterprise more palatable.

    62. Big Jock says:

      I am struggling to keep the heid at work. One guy Catholic said he was sick of Sturgeon but quite liked that Ruth Davidson. He is obviously blissfully unaware of her Orange Lodge followers and councilors. Not to mention the Tories toxic agenda.

      Apparently he was old Labour.Voted no because he didn’t think pulling apart was the way to go. Big Eu remain voter how ironic. Got angry for five minutes then capitulated like most weak willed Scots do. Likes to think he is some kind of socialist.

      Where do you start with people like that. It’s depressing at work as there are so many like him. So many Scots who just take what England decides for them and moan but accept a beating every time.

      I am seriously thinking of moving to Eire. I cannot contemplate a future for me in this toxic country. I would curl up watching Scotland become a region of England and my country dessimated. The next two years are a fight for Scotlands very existence. These people cannot vandalise my nation and expect me to join them. If we don’t take our independence then the games a bogey, we are not a nation.

    63. galamcennalath says:

      Re STV. Virtually all democracies use PR. Scotland needs to have the same voting system at every level for simplicity.

      A quick look at who uses which type of PR …

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional_representation#List_of_countries_using_proportional_representation

      … shows that the norm is party list across the world, but especially in Europe. The EU elections are party list with Scotland being one constituency.

      Party list a simple understandable system. It’s very proportional. It does allow an element of local representation.

      Personally, I would suggest the three levels in iScotland – council, national, and EU (if iScotland is a full member) – should be on straightforward party list.

      Forget STV, consign it to history. Do as most other Europeans do, go party list!

    64. Alwi says:

      Has anyone done a projection as if it was fptp?

    65. Bill McLean says:

      Big Jock – sad story! Ask your colleague who claims do be a socialist just when he thinks Westminster will ever permit socialist government in the UK. I really believe that if we are not out before Brexit we are done forever. There’s lots of interesting history, politics and law discussed here but not one idea of how we progress our cause. If we are equals in the Treaty of Union why can’t we just withdraw from it? Most are against any type of UDI since it would upset our masters – well if we achieve independence through referendum, which I doubt, they’ll be just as upset. Too much minutiae without any resolution – in my opinion which I am entitled to no matter how others view it. So there!

    66. Auld Rock says:

      Evening All,

      Like RogueCoder we have a similar battle up here in Orkney & Shetland where at the last election our late much loved and respected Candidate Danus Skene ran ‘LIAR’ Carmichael to with 817 and afterwards many of you helped fund the ‘Orkney 4’.

      We have a new young lady, Miriam Brett taking-up the challenge. Miriam who is reckoned to be another Mhairi Black and sorry Rogue she also could be another Nicola but that’s the future. First we have to get her elected and while Carmichael and his Fib/Dems have very few foot-soldiers they do have some very generous sponsors we need your financial help to mount a winning campaign in two far flung Island Groups. You can help by sparing as much or as little that you can afford at our crowd funder, link here:- http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/miriam-brett-for-mp-of-orkney-and-shetland

      Thank you all in advance.

      Auld Rock

    67. Ian Foulds says:

      Farrochie at 6.27pm. To a simpleton like me that seems a good basis for an alternative evaluation.

    68. frogesque says:

      What is surprising is that the BBC deemed it necessary to defend itself. Normally they wouldn’t give a flying shyte what anyone thought.

      Losing their propaganda war must be getting to them.

    69. Scott says:

      Excellent detective work, Stuart.

      This is the sort of hard analysis that professional journalists used to do.

      Once again, Wings proves its worth as a reliable source of information.

    70. crazycat says:

      @ Phil

      The idea of the Single Transferable Vote is that it goes to someone, unless you choose not to use all your preferences.

      If you rank all the candidates, all those who are elected will have received a preference from you, even if it’s a low one.

      But if you are compelled to stop after a certain number, and there are sufficient candidates, you might find that no-one you ranked gets in. That’s more like FPTP, when everyone who didn’t vote for the winner is in that position. It’s inequitable, though, for some people to get their choice(s) elected but others not to, because of the voting system rather than a decision by the voter.

      You could argue (as Ken500 does) that FPTP is the better system, but I don’t see that you can have STV with a limited number of choices. There is a vast number of voting systems, and it is possible that one like that exists, but it will have a different name.

    71. Ian Brotherhood says:

      Mairi McAllan will be standing for SNP against Fluffy.

      Here’s link to her crowdfunder, currently at £1,400 with £2,500 target:

      http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/elect-mairi-mcallan/

    72. velofello says:

      When is enough enough?
      English votes for English affairs, and apparently now, never can there be a non-English UK Prime Minister; a current Prime Minister who will not meet the general public; An Indy referendum to express the wishes on Brexit of the 62% of Scots who voted Remain …”Now is not the time” declares unelected to PM, May; Brexit negotiations that will not be publicised to the…public.

      A D’Hondt voting scam that throws up MSPs trailing +13,000 votes behind the winner – Annie Wells, with just 2,700 votes on TV; same too Tomkins; Murdo Fraser?;

      Clause 2? “Necessary to cut the deficit” declares Ruth Davidson.Don’t like Clause 2? ” Well then, fund the costs and so not apply it in Scotland”, declares Ruth Davidson.

      Necessary to cut the deficit! What about income? Panama? Virgin Isles? Corporation tax scams?

      There’s times when I feel that politics is just a hobby for some.I’m frustrated.

      Why oh why are we asking Teresa May grant us the right to hold a referendum? Because it is in the unwritten “British” constitution?

      62% of us voted to remain in the EU, lets just put that in place.If UDI is the route, so be it.

    73. RoryD says:

      These were local council and not national elections, and I’m sick of hearing endlessly in the media about Tory this and SNP that. Thank goodness here in the Highland Council area we have many independents as well as party candidates, although they did get a squeeze (and yes; many really are independent). Although a yes-voting SNP member, I voted for two independents (I thought they personally would be better councillors) ahead of the SNP candidates – and I don’t feel bad personally that the SNP lost a councillor locally (yes; our ward boundaries were also changed) and the Tories gained one.

    74. Auld Rock says:

      Evening All,

      Can you help Miriam Brett’s crowd funder to unseat ‘LIAR’ Carmichael up here in Orkney & Shetland. We are up against a very well funded Fib/Dem Candidate.

      Please help by digging deep.

      Link: http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/miriam-brett-for-mp-of-orkney-and-shetland

      Thank you.

      Auld Rock

    75. Meg merrilees says:

      Big Jock

      Maybe you should talk to your colleague and point out tRuthless’ view on the ‘ray-p’ clause.

      Point out that the tRuthless and the tories are introducing £80 charges to see a GP, taking motability vehicles off disabled people, refusing to accept child refugees and wanting to shaft pensioners next by removing the triple lock.
      Maybe his conscience will prick him then.

      Make sure you point out that under the SNP, Scottish people have free prescriptions, baby boxes, free hospital parking, the SNP are mitigating the bedroom tax, providing free childcare hours and increased apprenticeships. and of course, Nicola’s and WM MP’s defence of women against the two child family cap – as one newly elected tory has gone on record saying; “if you can’t afford more than two children, you should buy Durex.”

      Speaking as a Catholic, your Catholic friend might be a bit concerned to learn that he’ll
      be expected to limit his family to two children unless he’s rich…
      Oh and of course rub it in about the OO and the fact that there are lots of Catholics in France, Spain, Poland, Germany, Eire – in fact most of Europe!!!

      Also, look just how far to the right England is lurching!

      Maybe it’s time to get out the Wee Blue Book… see this page above.
      Sandwiched between the main article ” A little more certainty’ and Wings twitter feed.

      it’s well worth the read. You can download it and take it in to show him…

    76. cearc says:

      You’ve got to hand it to Prof. David Denver, he’s got balls.

      I wouldn’t put my name to such nonsense.

      For parliamentary election, it might be considered ‘rough and ready’, but for local elections it is just rubbish.

      ‘doesn’t appear to be any alternative.’ Yes, there is Prof. you could say that it really is not possible with multi-member wards and STV.

      I live by a ward boundary. My first criteria amongst acceptable candidates is whether they live within 50mls. With the best will in the world, the chances of getting a councilor to community council meetings when it is more than 1.5 hr. drive each way is greatly reduced.

      My voting list was quite different this year to last time as all the likely candidates where different. Had we had 4 people to elect rather than 3, it would have been different again.

      Had I been moved into the next ward it would have been different both this time and last.

      Similarly, comparing first preferences doesn’t really add much to the political debate. If you want an independent candidate to have a chance they need first preference votes to avoid being knocked out in the early rounds.

    77. Dr Jim says:

      @RoryD

      You said you voted for Independent councillors yet you are a SNP member

      I’m puzzled

    78. Andy Anderson says:

      To win we need to get every Indy supporter out on June 8. Show them we ignore their lies.

    79. Robert Graham says:

      Eh will this , or does this change the result ? .
      The point is ? .

    80. harry mcaye says:

      Annie Wells wishes she got that many votes, velofello.

      She got a whopping 2,062.

    81. robertknight says:

      Agree with the assertion by frogesque @9:49 that it is indeed unusual for the Britnat Brainwashing Channel to bother their ar$e explaining themselves.

      Call me paranoid, but a magician will distract you with something apparently innocuous whilst it is what you don’t see which is crucial.

      I wouldn’t trust the Beeb as far as I can spit – and that’s not even as far as the T.V. in my lounge.

      The GE and ScotRef are on the horizon, and having lied through their teeth in order to do damage to the SNP/Yes, it is painless for them to apologise/justify themselves afterwards once the ballots have been counted and the result stands.

    82. cearc says:

      Just seen this is on Stu’s twitter from James Kelly (Scot goes Pop).

      ‘If we can’t have a Corbyn v May TV debate, can we at least have Tomkins v McDougall on who should GET OUT OF THE WAY in East Renfrewshire?’

      Now that would be worth driving to the pub to watch!

    83. Robert J. Sutherland says:

      galamcennalath @ 21:31,

      I have to disagree with you there, gala. The party list system enables party hacks and apparatchiks to prosper and the general voting public just has to take it or leave it.

      Which is what happens in Holyrood now with the list vote. (Which, as we do it here, has further problems which the continental countries don’t have.)

      The consequence is that you get party hacks like Mike Rumbles displacing the well-regarded Alison MacInnes on the NE LibDEm list. Not to mention a certain member of the Clan Fraser who seems to persist against all the odds, presumably thanks to oodles of behind-the-scenes gladhanding and schmoozing.

      What I like about STV is that, in principle at least, it allows the ordinary voter to express preferences of their own. The difficulty at the moment is twofold: too many people are still unfamiliar with how to use it (as opposed to how it operates, which they can cheerfully ignore) and secondly it is being deployed in local elections in circumstances where a huge polarised constitutional question hangs over the whole thing and completely swamps its nuances.

      We need a proper PR electoral system to keep our democracy alive and healthy, but absolutely none of the available alternatives can hope to deal with the vexatious and inappropriate burden that the Tories are currently attempting to load all ours with – this mendacious “no-ref” ref ploy. Deliberately attempting to exploit the nuances of PR to smokescreen their abject failure to win their case. (Then attempting to dodge the truth by megaphone Big Lying.)

      Which is precisely why we must first “clear the decks” and address the constitutional question in a Scotref with a straight binary choice: independence or subjugation?

      Only after that will our electoral systems be able to function properly as intended.

    84. Jockanese Wind Talker says:

      Re: Fox hunting, as abhorrent as it is this is the Tories playing the “SNP don’t represent the countryside/ rural electorate but us Tories understand you”.

      They’re already at the “SNP want to take your land and let the poor all own a bit of Scotland”.

      There are enough cap doffing lickspittles in The Highland’s, Aberdeenshire, Angus, Perthshire and The Borders who’ll buy this.

    85. Robert Peffers says:

      @Gfaetheblock says: 9 May, 2017 at 8:42 pm:

      “I am finding this whole debate somewhat dull. Be it +6 or -7, this is less than 2% of the total seat number. Surely the conversation is why the SNP is at the same level as 5 year ago, and what the proportion of vote is telling us?”

      Nah! Gfaetheblock, The reason you find it so dull and, at this later stage, are now attempting to take us all back to debate the conclusions you are only getting to now but we reached in the first few seconds after reading Stu’s article.

    86. Truth says:

      Good timing Rev. Just today I received yet another letter from the BBC paid extortionists that are Capita.

      More evidence to be kept to prove their extortionist, threatening, harassing, and illegal ways.

      I will never pay a penny toward this propagandist outfit and their criminal enforcers.

      I request others do the same.

    87. cearc says:

      Dr. Jim,

      re RoryD,

      It makes perfect sense in Highland, if your preferred 2 independents are knocked out your third choice goes to the SNP candidate anyway. A ‘local’ councilor a 100 mls away will never be my first choice either.

      Would you want your ‘local’ councilor to be living in Pitlochry?

    88. Iain says:

      Of course the BBC is biased – as would any state broadcaster in its position. It may strive to exercise fairness in respect of politics which doesn’t threaten the existence of the UK state, but certainly when that ultimate threat is manifest, it will, as subtly as it can, seek to undermine it.

    89. Big Jock says:

      CPS decision on prosecuting Tories is due tomorrow. Will they be leaned on and bottle it?

    90. Jockanese Wind Talker says:

      I assume the CPS decision will be the same as the Pensions announcement @Big Jock says at 10:34pm

      It will be unable to be reported on during this period of Purdah.

    91. Gfaetheblock says:

      Sorry Robert, read you reply three times and not really getting what you are saying.

    92. Ian Brotherhood says:

      @Truth (10.26) –

      🙂

      More power to ye.

      BBC will never release figures on non-payment. All we can go on is guesstimates based on personal testimony.

      But we can be sure of this – whatever % of the fee isn’t being collected UK-wide is disproportionally higher in Scotland.

      Wasn’t it ever thus?

    93. Capella says:

      Jockanese Wind Talker 10:24 pm
      Re: Fox hunting – this is the Tories playing the “SNP don’t represent the countryside/ rural electorate but us Tories understand you”.
      There are enough cap doffing lickspittles in The Highland’s, Aberdeenshire, Angus, Perthshire and The Borders who’ll buy this.

      Spot on. You can almost hear the besuited PR consultants presenting their power points at the strategy meeting.
      Why is every day like an episode of “The Thick of It”.

    94. geeo says:

      Oh dear…

      “Im john mackay” seems a bit miffed that his 2 studio guests (one a headteacher) are not playing along with the “SNP BAD” narrative…

      GIRFUY

    95. Andrew Coulson says:

      crazycat and mike andrew:
      Thank you: I think I’ve got it now…. The Boundary Commission makes changes to wards, with the intention that the resulting elected councils or parliaments, etc, are more generally representative of the electorate’s preferences. The relative upward movement in notional seats for the SNP, could simply reflect the fact that the ward changes have made the seat totals more correctly representative of electoral opinion — ie, the number of seats the SNP won in 2012 was too few to correctly represent the level of electoral support for the SNP, and now the boundary changes have more or less corrected this error. Is this ok?

    96. meg merrilees says:

      DUNBLANE RESIDENTS HAVING A MEETING TONIGH TO DEMAND THE IMMEDIATE RESIGNATION OF ALASDAIR MAJURY NEWLY ELECTED TORY COUNCILLOR.

    97. mogabee says:

      Now let me think…

      I just imagined that we in Scotland had a broadcaster that told the truth and nothing but the truth.

      Seriously, the BBC are a bunch of bastards.

    98. crazycat says:

      @ Meg merrilees at 10.13

      I agree that it is worth talking to anyone in the hope of getting them to see the light, and I like your suggestions, apart from this first one:

      Point out that the tRuthless and the tories are introducing £80 charges to see a GP

      .

      No doubt they’d love to do this, but I’m fairly sure they haven’t – yet. What I have read about is a practice in Bournemouth has offered that “opportunity” to people who are not registered with them (it is still illegal to charge their own patients – the doctors concerned are denying that this will lead to a worse service for their NHS patients; I’m inclined to be sceptical) as a way of queue-jumping.

      This will presumably spread to other practices, but it is not being introduced by the government (let alone tRuthless, who has no power over the SNHS).

      We’re likely to be accused of scare-mongering anyway, so we do need to be careful.

    99. galamcennalath says:

      Robert J. Sutherland says:

      The party list system enables party hacks and apparatchiks to prosper

      Is that really the experience of the many (most?) democracies which use the system? I don’t know the answer, to be honest.

      It’s not so long since the SNP relied on lists for most of their Holyrood seats. And those were good people.

      Perhaps, “party hacks and apparatchiks” is more a function of the branch office mentality of the Unionists where they see Holyrood as a political backwater and allow dross to stand.

      Unionists in Holyrood don’t and never have actually contributed much to Scotland. That is how they perceive devolution and their role which is act on behave of their London party masters and keep Scotland in line.

      I don’t take devolved Holyrood lists as a very good example.

      How it actually operates across Europe and beyond might provide a clearer view.

      The appeal of the system is it’s simplicity and proportionality.

    100. Robert Peffers says:

      @Iain says: 9 May, 2017 at 10:33 pm:

      … but certainly when that ultimate threat is manifest, it will, as subtly as it can, seek to undermine it.”

      Jings! Iain, if the last few years was the BBC being subtle, I’d hate to see then really in yer face.

    101. HandandShrimp says:

      May’s desire to kill wee animals is purely a south of the border matter. It will have no bearing on Holyrood. However, it won’t exactly endear May to a hell of a lot of voters and 80% of the UK are urban dwellers.

      That Majury chap is a gift that just doesn’t stop giving. The Tories weeded out several warmers before the vote. I wonder how many more made it through their vetting.

    102. meg merrilees says:

      Crazycat

      I accept your point however, did you read this link from Nana this morning?

      https://tompride.wordpress.com/2017/05/08/nhs-tories-silent-on-introduction-of-145-charges-for-40-minute-gp-consultations/

    103. heedtracker says:

      Great work, again! We get the state broadcaster we don’t deserve. This one is probably one of their biggest frauds though.

    104. Meg merrilees says:

      Apparently Majury was involved in the Boy’s Brigade in Dunblane and has been removed from there now.

      Look forward to reading all about it in the Scottish press tomorrow.
      Do they just offer his seat to the next highest scoring candidate (Labour) or is there another ballot?

      It would seem that possibly he wasn’t vetted!

    105. Ken500 says:

      What is needed is FPTP. The majority support it. Get rid of the 3rd rate rejects, regurgitating again and again. There is supposed to be a strong opposition. Not in Westminster. The Torues could have been defeated. Labour just abstained or voted Tory policies through. They are useless.

      STV is just nonsense beyond comprehension.

      Some people have strange friends.

      Nicola is loved by the majority not just in Scotland, the UK and around the world. Scotland has many high places friends in Europe. Ready to help out if Scotland votes for it. A second Independence Ref.

    106. Thepnr says:

      @Ian Brotherhood

      The BBC have published license fee evasion rates for the countries of the UK.

      Scotland 10%
      England 6%
      Wales 6%
      N. Ireland 9%

      How accurate they are I’ve no idea, but the info can be found in Figure 7, pg 23 of this document. Estimates are for March 2016.

      http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/assets/files/pdf/review_report_research/tvl/2017/licence_fee_collection.pdf

    107. heedtracker says:

      HandandShrimp, there probably will be some SNP Westminster MP’s, June 9. Look at how the right got very itchy and scratchy with the last SNP involvement with blood sports, south of the border.

    108. Clootie says:

      Why should the BBC care if those who support Indepence are aware of their bias.
      Their job is easier now. They simply have to hold the NO vote by spewing out propaganda day in and day out.
      They will continue to be funded by the State all the way to the next Independence debate.
      Should Scotland attain Independence the drop in income will be negligible in comparison to the continued reward from rUK governments.

      We have only one answer…keep fighting by making it harder to ignore the results. The maintenance of a core YES supporting voting block is a great success. We have more people working daily to sell a positive view of Independence. The young are moving towards YES and the old are moving on to a 1950s Valhalla.

      Scotland is becoming a better place. The importance of building a better society has been established. The unionist vote is only re-cycling between Red Tory and Blue Tory.

      …so heads up and focus on the next step…crushing the Tories in the GE.

    109. Phronesis says:

      Tally Ho- the most communicative that the PM has been this entire campaign is around the proposed vote on fox hunting. After all when you have people across all age groups on the brink of starvation, homelessness and destitution (even in the leafy shires) that is the main priority.

      Is that surprising given the political DNA of the Tories? Moving from the paternalistic one-nation post war conservatives who did actually believe in using the state to help promote economic growth and provide welfare through high rates of taxation to maintain social unity we are still living with the legacy of Thatcherism and neo-liberal economics which wiped out Scotland’s manufacturing infrastructure and ignored the decline of our great cities. In today’s 0.1% Nation Conservatism the function of Scotland is irrelevant unless it is about exploiting Scotland’s vast resources.

      And so we embark on GE 2017 on a platform of alt-politics. Leading the fray are politicians who are now purposively disconnected from the electorate with carefully staged soundbites and public appearances but no debate or critical reflection- that doesn’t fit with the alt-truth programme (aka lies and deception).

      In his excellent book ‘Global Inequality’ (Branko Milanovic) the author cites the ‘slide from democracy’. UKOK is on a helter skelter ride- democracy as we would understand it will be extinguished as we all race to the bottom apart from the chosen few who remain at the top. He writes of the ‘rich people’s strategy to suppress democracy’ by encouraging a docile electorate to develop a false consciousness.

      ‘ The middle class and poor people are being diverted, largely by design , from looking after their own economic interests into caring about other concerns , especially social or religious ones that are often divisive. This division arises…from a collectively manufactured elite consensus…given the enormous amount of private money that is used in politics and the media… (in)politics influence is sought directly…(the ) media influence is created through shaping public opinion so that it agrees with the opinion of the funders. The creation of a false consciousness takes place through ideological matraquage where newspaper readers, TV viewers…are bombarded with issues …that distract popular attention from basic economic and social problems …the culture war has a function , and that function is to mask the real shift of economic power toward the rich’.

      Scotland has a very important decision to make – its future- a brainwashed region or a free thinking autonomous country.

    110. Robert Peffers says:

      @RoryD says: 9 May, 2017 at 10:08 pm:

      “These were local council and not national elections, and I’m sick of hearing endlessly in the media about Tory this and SNP that. Thank goodness here in the Highland Council area we have many independents as well as party candidates … “

      Then RoryD, I’ve no doubt that you will be absolutely delighted to read the news item from the BBC text service that :-

      “Negotiations are being held on forming a coalition of councillors that would seek to form an administration to run Highland Council.

      Independents, the largest group of councillors elected last week, are holding talks with other’s

      The SNP group has said a deal has been done between the Independents, Liberal Democrats and Labour councillors.

      However, the Independents have said that nothing has been agreed and negotiations were continuing,”



      Now I may well be wrong but by reading between the lines it rather looks like those Independents have attempted to play the LibDems+Labour off against the SNP, (attempting a wee bit of blackmail), and the SNP have called their bluff and said, “Nae chance Independents, aff ye gae wi yer new best pals. We’ll see ye in COSLA, an’ the best o luck tae ye aa.”

      As I said I may well be wrong – but it will all come out in the wash.

    111. cearc says:

      Thepnr,

      ‘ license fee evasion rates’?

      No doubt based on the assumption that everyone that hasn’t a license is an evader.

      I don’t watch tv. I have a life. (well, a garden anyhow).

    112. Effijy says:

      When the boundaries of Parliamentary constituencies change, it is clearly vital for analysts to have an idea of what the results of the previous election would have been had the new boundaries been in force and had people voted exactly as they did in their old constituencies.

      I really don’t agree that there is any need for this nonsense
      analyst of the Council election figures.
      It use is for propaganda purposes only!

      The calculation must be these are the number of votes and seats won by each party in the last election, out of the then total seats, and here are the same figures this time around.

      It explains everything.

      Lets get some secondary school kids to do this for us, and surely a nutty professor has better things to do to justify
      their £9,300 term fees in English Universities.

    113. heedtracker says:

      Check out beeb tory wordsmiths very hard at work on tory election fraudster investigations. Imagine beeb gimp fury if the SNP had even a whiff of fraud in any of their campaigns. What’s an “election expenses charging” anyway?

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39865801

      Conservative election expenses charging decision due
      40 minutes ago
      From the section UK Politics

    114. crazycat says:

      @ Andrew Coulson

      Not quite; the changes are not designed to reflect electoral support.

      Boundary changes are usually a response to population changes; there are regular reviews. The aim is to get the divisions (council wards, parliamentary seats) roughly equal in population without making silly choices of boundary location.

      The Boundary Commission deals with this, but they only produce recommendations, which have to be accepted by politicians and which go out for consultation.

      Sometimes more radical changes are introduced, by government, eg the imminent reduction of Westminster MPs from 650 to 600. (The Boundary Commission then had to accommodate this, which has led to some very awkward boundaries indeed.)

      Within the multi-member system used for councils, it is also possible to reflect population change by leaving the boundaries the same, but reducing or increasing the number of representatives elected. From 2012 to 2017, both sorts of change took place. Hence the professor’s calculations.

      To make results more representative, changes to the voting system are required. That is also a matter for politicians (or even referendums).

      It may of course be that results from the new wards are more proportional, but that isn’t the purpose of the reviews. Nor should it be, since the Boundary Commission is supposedly neutral – and the electorate’s views can change. STV works better if there are 5 or 6 people elected per division; that would also need to be a political decision.

    115. yesindyref2 says:

      The method itself seems fine, indeed a roung and ready estimate, but I’m afraid this is never satisfactory in such an analysis: “(and sometimes using local knowledge and past experience of local elections) “.

      If you have a method, you stick to the method full stop. Only for your own purpose (and those like you) can you then fudge a bit to try to polish it up, such as we might in this forum.

    116. Capella says:

      Craig Murray again exposes the sycophantic media grovelling to Theresa May and her hapless band of numpties “Journalists as State Functionaries”:

      https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2017/05/journalists-state-functionaries/

    117. crazycat says:

      @ Meg merrilees

      Yes, I did read Tom Pride; if you follow the links within his article (which both lead to the same source) it is clearly not a government initiative. It is the GPs in Bournemouth who are doing this – so far.

    118. yesindyref2 says:

      But on second thoughts the problem is that people do know the previous results if any, and their voting preferences if they use the numbers, could change accordingly.

      For instance, in my GE constituency in the late 80s and 90s, even into the naughties, if it was likely to be close between Labour and Tory I voted Labour. But if it was going to be a walkover I voted SNP to keep the percentage up (until 2015 the SNP didn’t have any chance).

      So the method takes and can take, no account of people being human and variable, it can only treat them as numbers and constants.

    119. Effijy says:

      Thanks to everyone who stood up for Scotland and against the Blatant BBC Bias, since I made the post below!

      It looks like we will hit 92,000 signatures tonight!

      Imagine 92,000 of us being wrong? lol

      Donalda’s in the Boozers!

      Effijy says:

      7 May, 2017 at 11:43 pm
      Many Thanks to all those who signed the petition today!
      Effijy says:

      The BBC have now reached the ultimate stage of broadcasting propaganda.
      Although many things can have grey areas and various issues can be interpreted in different ways, Arithmetic is an exact science.

      Anyone recall their teacher suggesting the 2+2= subject to boundary changes and if the Scottish National Party are involved -6.

      I, like many of you, have lodged many well proven and justified complaints about bias at the BBC, but all judges are jury members are very well paid BBC employees who will send you out a nice condescending letter to say that you are wrong! Full Stop!

      Some people have stopped paying the license fee because of this on-going persecution of Scots for Scotland, but the Beeb don’t even give us the dignity of declaring just how many people have done this, or how much revenue that they have lost. Again they are allowed to keep you in the dark about anything that suits them, and ultimately their Westminster manipulating masters.

      Even with the professional dossiers produced by Prof John Robertson, a leading authority on propaganda and how it
      is positioned and applied, the Beeb just say that he is wrong too and there is no evidence of their corruption.

      For quite some time, I have banged the drum to try and raise 100,000 signatures on a petition, any petition, I really don’t care who started it, or who manages it, just as long as it can be presented as true and accurate.

      The link below I know causes a stir with some, as this organisation was used for a corrupt purpose by a corrupt Gordon Brown, but that was another petition on another subject.

      This link below has 91,880 signatures on it, just 8,000 names away from being able to slap the BBC in the face with the FACT that 100,000 have declared them to be undeniably Biased against Scotland.

      I want to see our politicians hit Bird, Robertson, Dimbleby, etc, hit over the head with the fact that the people of Scotland have registered, in significant numbers,
      that we know their game, they are biased, they are corrupt, and they have No credibility here in Scotland.
      Sign it or let the Celebrity Paedophile Corporation continue to say that they have no idea about what you are talking about!

      https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/independent-enquiry-into-bbc-bias-regards-scottish-independence-referendum

    120. Thepnr says:

      @cearc

      Yep, License fee Evasion is exactly what the BBC call it and it’s described thus:

      2.8 According to available data, the rate of evasion varies considerably across the UK (Figure 7). This data is less accurate than that used to calculate the national evasion
      rate, but TV Licensing nonetheless believes it represents the true picture in broad terms.

      In Scotland, some of the difference may be explained by a different regulatory environment: the BBC does not have the same power as elsewhere to decide, without reference to other authorities, whether to prosecute evaders it catches.

      Evasion also varies significantly within nations, for example it is estimated to be higher in urban areas with younger populations.

      I think it’s possible they might be being economical with the truth when it comes to Scotland, doubt they’d want to give the game away.

    121. meg merrilees says:

      Tomorrow’s front page The National

      https://twitter.com/ScotNational

    122. Robert Peffers says:

      @Colin says: 9 May, 2017 at 9:05 pm:
      “Hi everyone this will be the first time I’ve made a comment on wings and I fear it may be a stupid contribution so apologies in advance.”

      Welcome, Colin and don’t be shy to post some more. No it isn’t a silly question for it is exactly what the rest of us are trying to understand.

      ” … Can anyone explain to me why it was necessary to find out what the results of the council election would of been before the boundary changes?”

      I most certainly cannot explain it and by the looks of things neither can anyone else.

      Far as I can see it is just your usual BBC attempted lies and manipulations to make the SNP look to have been the losers and the unionists the winners.

      Seems to me that in their eagerness to do down the SNP the BBC jumped the gun and were left with egg on their faces, (if you excuse the deliberate mixed metaphors).

      The rest of the MSM just, as usual, took the BBC’s lead.

      As for the Rev Stu’s article I took it as being a lesson to wingers how the BBC can be liars by omission.

      Now don’t you be shy of posting more often, Colin. We need as much fresh view as we can get.

    123. ScottishPsyche says:

      I am getting increasingly fed up with the tunnel vision and self-interest of the NE fishing industry and their pigheaded belief that Theresa May gives a flying F about them.

    124. Dr Jim says:

      @cearc

      I would still vote SNP in order to take complete control of all councils and in that way be able to start reforming them into what they should be, non political local management offices with suitably qualified staff running them and not party driven contest fests and power bases to be used against one party or another

      That would be my ideal, less politics locally, not more
      Nobody votes for who works in Greggs they’re just there to do their job and serve the public sausage rolls

      A big saving on finances too, no need for elections

    125. Chick McGregor says:

      “The SNP increase of 14 is largely explained by increases in the number of councillors to be elected. In five councils (Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire, Edinburgh, Glasgow, North Ayrshire, and North Lanarkshire) my estimates gave the SNP 16 extra seats compared to the actual 2012 results – but there was an increase of 25 in the number of seats available in these council areas.”

      So if there was an increase in the number of Councillors of 25 in that region of Scotland, then, it is fairly reasonable to allocate an extra 16 seats for the SNP in that area.

      However, and this is a very important however, there was, in fact, only actually 4 extra seats in the Scottish total.

      i.e. NOT 25+.

      So what the BBC have done is to have taken the number of extra seats in a particular area and extrapolated a notional adjustment nationally.

      A first year schoolboy/girl could see that if there were 25 extra seats in that area but only 4 extra nationally then there must have been 21 seats less in the rest of Scotland.

      But the commensurate revision down of SNP seats won there does not seem to have been carried out.

      Shocking, but then again, not.

    126. Chick McGregor says:

      PS
      The bottom line is that the SNP first preference vote percentage remained unchanged (within 0.1%) and the percentage of available seats won by the SNP increased.

      By no normal stretch an SNP loss.

    127. Swami Backverandah says:

      Just had a quick scroll through and did I see correctly a new commenter upthread?
      Hiya Colin.

      *waves*

      Hiya commenters, lurkers, other people, foxes, assorted birds and other wildlife, fishermen, nurses, doctors, teachers, pensioners, people who travel on buses etc etc.

      SNP for Scotland.
      Independence for Scotland.

    128. Robert Peffers says:

      @Bill McLean says: 9 May, 2017 at 9:42 pm:

      ” … There’s lots of interesting history, politics and law discussed here but not one idea of how we progress our cause. If we are equals in the Treaty of Union why can’t we just withdraw from it?”

      You must have missed lots of the times the reason why we cannot just say we are equals, Bill, but we have indeed been over it a million times or more.

      The historic truth has been re-written by the Southern Establishment that has become the Westminster Establishment from the very first recorded history as recorded by the Romans who were the first South Britain Establishment.

      It is true that there are conflicting Roman reports as recorded history. The Establishment not only chose which versions suited the Establishment but they have propagated it as propaganda right until this very day.

      So the basic truth is NOT what most Britons accept, usually without thinking about it, and neither does the rest of the World. So over 2017 years of brainwashing has to be overcome in the first place.

      Only when a majority of the legally sovereign people of Scotland know and accept they are really sovereign can Scotland take action legally.

      Not to mention that it also needs the World at large to know, and accept, the true history of Britain, Europe and the World. There must be that acceptance before the legal action of telling Westminster the Union is ended to then be able to be make it legally stick.

      I’ve pointed out many of the real facts right here on Wings many, many times. The truth is getting out and, far as I can see, the EU has realised the United Kingdom they were treating as a unified country and a member country is nothing of the sort.

      Within the past few weeks there have been several EU, Council of Europe and EC people in power who have made it clear they regard it is feasible for Scotland to remain in the EU while England & Wales leaves. This could not be contemplated if they though that the UK was a unified country.

      I know for a fact how much of the World has been brainwashed that Britain, England and the UK are all just different names for the same thing. It is really good to see the look of enlightenment light up foreign faces when you take the time to explain to then that you are NOT English but are Scottish.

      Mind you it is usually then necessary to have to explain the difference between a country and a kingdom.

      I’ve made many good friends that way who had tended to be a bit hostile when they though me English but were instantly much friendlier on finding we Scots were not English.

      So there’s the answer, Bill, before we can tell Westminster we are their equals and we are leaving this unequal union we must first convince a majority of the Scots that they are equals and that the UK is NOT Britain it is only part of Britain.

      So why else did you imagine the Establishment keeps calling everything UK as British?

      Why else did you imagine the rest of the World had accepted that as a fact?

      Until now. Why did you think that the SNP have the leader of the party as an MSP and not an MP or MEP?

      It will be noted that when Nicola goes to meet other nations leaders they accept her as Scotland’s First Minister without question as the leader of the country of Scotland. It may be subliminal but it sure as hell is working.

    129. cearc says:

      Dr. Jim,

      Highland Council is probably the least ‘party political’ council. Mainly dominated by independents. (28/74) and put most proposals out for public consultation. It is indeed a shame that party politics have recently taken more of a hold here.

      It is not comparable to the central belt and the party fiefdoms.

      Local, is important. It is the best part of a 2hr. drive from me to any of my new councilors. Only one of them even seems to know that I am in their ward, at least only one of them sent me an election leaflet and it wasn’t the new SNP candidate who actually got my vote after my preferred, actually local-ish, independents were eliminated.

    130. Didji-Aye says:

      My preferred method is this:
      For each election, count the number of seats available and the number won by each party. Count the numbers of votes cast and percentages won by each party. Compare the seats won and the numbers of votes cast for each party.
      Next, compare the last election against the one before using the same measures. If a party got the most seats, and the most votes, they won the election. If their percentage of votes is higher than the previous election, it is a good thing, if not, it is usually a bad thing. If they have increased every category, then it is an overwhelmingly good thing and definitely a win. It usually works well to determine the winners.

    131. ian murray says:

      Okay so we lost the local elections despite getting more votes n that
      We will probably lose the General election the same way
      Notional indeed ! it sounds like a rule my big brother would come up with after I beat him at marbles!
      Now is not the time for a referendum but it is OK to float Fox hunting again, do Labour do fox hunting?
      I fear Labour are not being taken seriously in England because of party disunity and a gubbing is on the way

    132. Andy Anderson says:

      Professor Curtice and the BBC showed a chart showing the SNP share of the vote in the 2015 and 2016 elections alongside their share in this months council elections. This showed 50% in 2015 and 32% now with 2016 in between. Percentage are useful but what was not highlighted was the turnout figure. There is a relationship here which you need to know to see the trend properly.

      You know what I mean. You get a news item that says so and so crime up 50% on last year and you are shocked. The figure behind this an increase from 2 to 3. To be fair to Prof Curtice he did explain what he thought was going on. The BBC did not.

    133. Dal Riata says:

      @G H Graham at 6:38 pm

      Excellent post, and all true!

      The BBC are the enemy of Scottish independence. Without their interfering? right-wing propaganda and lies, Scotland would already be independent.

      Defeat that enemy, using all means possible and whatever it takes… then the war is won, and Scotland is independent.

      Simple as that, but unfortunately, so difficult to enact.

      For IndyRef2, it is an absolute necessity that Yes2 and the SNP focus their forces on discrediting, belittling and condemning the BBC at each and every opportunity – of which there will be many.

      Make it happen and Scotland’s chances of becoming independent rise exponentially.

    134. Iain says:

      The BBC.
      The truth.
      Strangers to each other.

    135. Macart says:

      Just in time for coffee Nana. 🙂

    136. Nana says:

      @Macart

      Some links still to appear including an important canary article relating to a damning UN report into tory policies. I wonder if this is why the media shouted Fox hunting.
      Check the canary website.

      https://www.thecanary.co/2017/05/09/channel-4s-michael-crick-tears-into-the-media-for-letting-theresa-may-behave-like-a-dictator/

      https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/digital-innovation-hubs

      http://evolvepolitics.com/bbc-licence-fee-now-simply-charge-spoon-fed-right-wing-propaganda/

      While the bbc was cosying up to Mrs Dictator and hubby this was happening outside.
      https://twitter.com/EUflagmafia/status/862014095092064256

    137. starlaw says:

      more horrors from the BBC today. BBC has discovered that Scotland has the highest amount oh trafficked sex slaves in the world. And further more some of these people are having their organs farmed.
      Should the BBC inform the Westminster controlled agencies whose job it is to track these people down. Or just keep it as an SNP BAAD story

    138. Ken500 says:

      GE election FPTP Higher % of voters – vote.

      Holyrood election D’Hondt – less % of voters – vote. 16/17 can vote. 3rd rate losers regurgitate.

      Council elections STV. Even Less % of voters – vote. 16/17 can vote. A total racket. 1st pref votes go in the bin. Quota. Voters do not understand it. Total confusion. The electoral system should be scrapped. Virtually impossible to get a majority. Especially when the unionists join up. To stop SNP getting in.

    139. Grafter says:

      Question. Why do you continue to pay the BBC to denigrate Scotland with continuous propaganda ?

    140. Macart says:

      Keep your keyboard handy Nana. CPS report on Tory election fraud due soon. 😉

    141. Sinky says:

      Education is the right wing press / BBC’s political football for the day.

      This morning Radio Scotland GMS failed to point out that minimum salary once serving probationary period is £27,000 and failed to challenge Tory teacher that there is stress in most jobs these days.

      https://www.nasuwt.org.uk/uploads/assets/uploaded/9670e773-3ace-4037-a6ea35443df7b2a3.pdf

      When issues like these arise (known last night) the SNP needs to be more pro active and update it’s web site to give supporters immediate rebuttals such as higher number of pupils going to employment or higher education than before SNP took office.

    142. Smallaxe says:

      Nana, Good Morning, I think it’s going to be another fine day here. Thank you for your lovely links
      Kettle’s on! Peace Always.
      🙂

    143. Nana says:

      @Macart

      I may not be at home when they make the big announcement. Do you reckon they will actually charge anyone? I’m not holding my breath.

      @Smallaxe

      Good morning, it’s a wee bit dull here right now. Heading out later so the sun had better be shining!

    144. Sinky says:

      BBC in Scotland still not mentioning Greens in election round ups while three pro union parties all get anti SNP quotes.

      Balance my a…..

    145. Breeks says:

      I wonder if people are expecting too much from this Tory Election fraud.

      Of all their sins, this abuse feels like yet another misdemeanour, although for once a misdemeanour which might carry far reaching consequences.

      If a Tory government can be prosecuted for misappropriating funds, why can’t the BBC be prosecuted for the gross misappropriation of truth and flagrant abandonment of diligent, impartial broadcasting?

      View both through the same lens on unfair electoral manipulation and distortion of the truth, and I would hold the BBC as a much more dangerous by far, and yet it still runs free and it’s conduct is wholly unchecked. Why isn’t the CPS knocking at the BBC’s door?

    146. Macart says:

      @Nana

      There was a pretty hefty pile of evidence collected and gone over by a fair number of police authorities. If the consensus from most parties on the timing and nature of this current snap election is correct, I wouldn’t be surprised if a few careers are thrown on the bonfire.

      However, holding breath…. no. Shallow breathing, possibly. 😉

    147. orri says:

      The problem with simply adding the next in line for election or removing the last man standing is that it ignores how the transfer of votes might change the order.

      More seats lowers the threshold for election which in turn increases the chances of residual votes making it to a lower preference. That could certainly swap the order of any remaining candidates.

      Fewer seats might change the order of election and also reduce transfers so pretty much the same as above.

      Not to mention a change in number of seats would have an effect on the election chances of independents.

      Even knowing how every ballot was cast then you are assuming the candidate list was the same and even then that everyone voted exactly the same.

    148. Ken500 says:

      Does anyone believe that 50% of people in Scotland can’t write? Just another load of nonsense. Do some of these people never go into schools. The testing system must be at fault. Often science maths graduates can’t write well. Doctors can be poor writers. People can be poor at English but brilliant at science/maths. and vice versa. Some people who are good at maths/science, often do less well in English/grammar. How are there falling standards when more and more pupils are going to University, college and into apprenticeships. Tradespeople can earn a comfortaboe living.

      20% of pupils have additiinal needs. Some are brilliant at maths and English. Some would struggle to get a qualification at school but do well at college with more support. Go on to do degrees. Teachers should get additional needs training. It helps all pupils. Simple solutions. A quiet areas or a base. Using computers or just a cushion in a chair can benefit a pupil.

      The Councils are often at fault. Not funding essential services properly. Spending £Millions on grotesque projects of no value and cutting the education budget. ACC were 130 teachers short. Telling teachers they could apply for redundancy. Spending £200 million on a grotesque project the majority did not want. Wasting £Millions which should have been saved or better spent on essential services. The SNP now intend to fully fund schools direct. So Councils can’t just cut their education budgets every time there is a shortfall.

      55% of people in Scotland go to university. One of the highest % in the world. Lifelong learning. Labour/Unionists were means testing loans on household income. Often pupils with straight ‘A’ in households of average earning could not get a full loan to go to university. That has changed. Even with a loan students still often need family financial support.

      Scotland was one of the first countries in the world to have tertiary education. Scotland has more Universities pro rata than most countries in the world. Scottish invention shaped the modern world.

      The Tories are taxing the Oil sector at 40%. Since 2010 keeping taxes high when prices had fallen. Losing £Billions and 120,000 jobs in Scotland. Scotland could have had full employment. Scotland leads the world in Oil & Gas technology, renewable energy etc, World renown food and drink production. Fishing technology, now using bigger nets. Not throwing dead fish back. Higher quotas
      because of SNP, representation and negotiation. Richard Lockhead. EU investment is extending the fish market.

      Westminster mismanagement. Illegal wars, financial fraud and tax evasion. Wasting £Trns. UK in more debt. Tory mismanagement. Now Brexit. In England/Wales. Not enough taxes are raised in England/Wales to pay for essential services. Hinkley by the sea, HS2, Heathrow and Trident. £Billions are being borrowed and spent unnecessary. All a total waste of money with more credible alternatives,

      The Greens are putting up less candidates in GE to get the Tories out. Now walking the walk? What about gender etc equality at Holyrood?

    149. Robert Peffers says:

      @heedtracker says: 9 May, 2017 at 11:40 pm:

      “Check out beeb tory wordsmiths very hard at work on tory election fraudster investigations. Imagine beeb gimp fury if the SNP had even a whiff of fraud in any of their campaigns. What’s an “election expenses charging” anyway?
      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39865801
      Conservative election expenses charging decision due
      40 minutes ago”

      BTW: heedtracker, did you notice, or like me miss, the fact that the MSM and BBC are NOT making clear that their news item do not apply to Scotland. So the extent of the election fraud may be much greater than we already know about.

      The clue is that the expected announcement is by the CPS, (Crown Prosecution Service), only but in Scotland the decision to take court action is done by the Procurators Fiscal.

      We need to find out the Scottish figures and the extent of the alleged election fraud in Scotland. I would be amazed if the Westminster Establishment unionist parties behind the election expenses fraud in England, Wales and N. Ireland had different methods of running things applied in Scotland.

      Any Wingers with any information for the rest of us?

    150. Dr Jim says:

      A look at Scotlands slave trade
      Not meant to be taken seriously:

      Today Scotland has more foreign sex slaves than in the whole of the entirety of the known world, prostitution is on every corner with foreign women being imported from God knows where
      to meet the insatiable demands of sex mad Scotsmen
      We are all advised to be vigilant in spotting this deluge of pornography flooding our streets and dark places where most sex mad Scotsmen didn’t even know existed let alone our now possibly vulnerable women folk and children

      Thank God the BBC has informed us of this horror by secretly searching out and finding this abominable underground trading and selling of people as Scotland we’re told is the ideal place and first choice of traffickers to bring all these women
      Liam Neeson will without doubt be brought in to save what appears to be these many thousands of slaves destined for our street corners by lunchtime today

      Now as many of you know I lived and worked in Spain for years and in that country every roundabout has a collection of prostitutes waiting there to tempt drivers to stop and buy, at night in some areas there are more prostitutes than everyday people seeking to ply their trade
      There are over 40million people in Spain and these prostitutes struggle to make a living, or perhaps they’re all just hiding here in Scotland to be trafficked further on, see, if so wouldn’t you think they’d choose a bigger place to hide in

      Yet the BBC tell us in our wee country of Scotland with it’s 5.4million inhabitants that the sex slave traffickers are all here borders on the serious taking of the pish and I would suggest if all these prostitutes and their slave masters really thought they wanted to make a living in Scotland they’d be better opening more curry shops and takeaways

      Now that’s the real way to a Scotsmans wallet

    151. Nana says:

      @Macart

      There was indeed plenty of evidence gathered, we shall see who will be thrown’ under the bus’ to save the rest. The cps are still sitting on a LOT of child abuse evidence. Taking them an awful long time to bring charges, despairing for the victims.

      That facebook post is fantastic, I’ve shared it.

    152. Justin ftn minty says:

      BBC enemy of democracy

    153. Robert Graham says:

      The CPS announcement will make reference to the wide ranging investigation , and conclude while we find no wilful deception or intended wrongdoing has occurred ,
      We feel the rules need to be clarified for future elections , or words to that effect .
      This lot have been spending weeks concocting a plausible excuse with government advisors looking on to guide them just to make sure they dont do what they are setup to do , a wash & white job .
      To make it look a little better the sacrificial lamb will be tossed in just for show .

    154. Breeks says:

      Macart says:
      10 May, 2017 at 8:53 am
      This needs to be read and passed on. It’s just that important.

      That is excellent, but probably not much comfort to the Ziesldorf family being deported to Canada.

      I wish there was a way to hold their Laggan Store in trust for them, maintained and properly looked after until they can return once we have our Independence.

      If we cannot save families like the Zielsdorfs from deportation, then our promises to all foreign nationals sound a little hollow, but still entirely correct to be making them. It is this meeting of minds and cultures that makes us all richer. It brings a tear to the eye to remember Alan Smith, “Scotland did not let you down. Please, I beg you, do not let Scotland down now”.

      I feel we have let the Zielsdorfs down, but we let them down when we voted No in 2014.

    155. starlaw says:

      And for our entertainment tonight our Alma Mater BBC in Scotland are putting on an anti slavery program just for us.
      No other part of our Glorious Realm needs to see this, even though these unfortunate organ donors and sex providers got here via England. Perhaps the BBC has decided not to screen this outside Scotland for fear of Educating Britain to the nonsense the try to pass as news here.

    156. Clootie says:

      When your local council is unionist with the support of a “so called” independent have a look at appointments a few weeks fro now. The independent will be appointed to a role such a licensing which gives him influence and another 10k/year. It is legal but distasteful….always follow the money.

    157. Dave McEwan Hill says:

      Reading standards have remained the same but the very small variation in writing standards of young people in Scotland blared out over the media will be entirely due to the use of texting,computers and smart phones and will be the same everywhere in the developed world.

    158. Nana says:

      Giving you the choice of whether to watch the video or not

      Supreme leader produces pure TV Valium on The One Show
      http://archive.is/EENoF

      https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/09/supreme-leader-produces-pure-tv-valium-on-the-one-show

    159. galamcennalath says:

      Re CPS and Tories. Have a read at the Electoral Commission’s conclusions …

      http://tinyurl.com/mj5la5d

      They certainly saw it as serious misbehaviour.

    160. Robert Peffers says:

      @ScottishPsyche says:10 May, 2017 at 12:06 am:

      “I am getting increasingly fed up with the tunnel vision and self-interest of the NE fishing industry and their pigheaded belief that Theresa May gives a flying F about them.

      I get the feeling, ScottishPsyche, that there might well be a great deal of union propaganda involved in giving the impression that this is the attitude of the fishing industry but may be just a unionist faction within the fishing industry and not the fishing industry itself.

    161. What I don’t understand about the BBC’s notional results (as explained in more detail on my blog) is how they could adjust the SNP in East Renfrewshire up from 4 out of 20 to 6 out of 18. They basically said, “if they had elected two councillors fewer five years ago, the SNP would have taken two more”. It makes no sense.

      Last week, the SNP got 5 out of 18 (28%), which really is an improvement on 4 out of 20 (20%), but the BBC made it look like a fall.

    162. orri says:

      The BBC article is heavily hinting that it’s the agents who are going to take the hit rather than either their candidates, successful or not, or the party.

      However if it turns out that’s only speculation it might be worth checking how prominently any candidates that have to be withdrawn were campaigning thus far. Might indicate either the Conservative Party themselves knew or feared it was likely or worse that they were tipped off it was gong to happen.

      The subsequent irony will be if any spending on a barred candidate has to be accounted for by the replacement or the party as a whole.

    163. jfngw says:

      Watching the BBC lunchtime news on 9th, commented to people in the room that the report on May was very positive, not one negative comment. Then followed by report on Corbyn, started sort of positive but by the end it had moved into full attack mode. Today I read the reporter at the May events father was a Tory MP, everything explained. Is there any reporter at the BBC without Tory links?

      Then we move onto the BBC website, highlighting a SNP candidate being criticised by Sturgeon for a tweet, but strangely no mention of the rabid tweeting of some recently elected Tory politicians.

      If only there was a way to stop paying my licence fee but still have access non BBC channels. Being force fed with propaganda, but even worse, making me pay for the privilege.

    164. Cuilean says:

      This is just mad. Where do BBC get the -6 figure and also why did the BBC only show the SNP results using this notional claptrap but used sane arithmetic for the other parties?

      The BBC has morphed into Pravda. Don’t renew your license.

    165. Robert Kerr says:

      Really people you musk ask why there are four different voting systems in Scotland and why there are continuous changes to boundaries for voting constituencies.

      IT IS A DELIBERATE PLOY TO CONFUSE. YOU ARE ALL TOO STUPID!

      Anent the Green Party problem with BBC. Anticipate fun after the German Elections when Frau Doktor Merkel is returned with Green Party support in coalition.

      http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-election-poll-idUKKBN1860EL

    166. meg merrilees says:

      Sinky 7.54

      Education is the political football today…
      Compare the headlines on the i newspaper today north and south britain.

      South – Millions to miss out on full pension
      North- Failed: Scathing verdict on Scots schools.

      Which topic do you think affects more people?
      Which topic might affect a tory Vote?
      Which topic might help a Tory vote?

      Daily Express

      South: Ibuprofen: New heart danger
      North: SNP record on schools ‘Shameful’

      Which topic do you think affects more people and is life threatening?
      Which topic is trying to influence voters?

      It’s just pathetic.
      —————

      Robert Peffers @9.45

      There was a good article in the National t’other day written by a retired fisherman which upholds your notion.

      http://www.thenational.scot/news/15270732.Scottish_fishermen_must__wake_up__to_Brexit__warns_ex_skipper/?ref=mr&lp=3

      perhaps someone can archive it?

    167. heedtracker says:

      Robert Peffers says:
      10 May, 2017 at 9:09 am
      @heedtracker says: 9 May, 2017 at 11:40 pm:

      Indeed Rabbie. Total silence from any news outfit, led by BBC Scotland, on any tory election fraud investigation, let alone impending prosecution. There may well be nothing going investigation wise in Scotland or a lot, we’re just not being told by our glorious BBC Scotland, either way.

      It’s all been totally ignored by BBC in particular, and to be fair, the tories and their media have played it really well defence wise, there’s not much out there in England.

      And if it wasnt for one C4 journo, Micheal Crick, we’d never have heard anything about it all. UK politics and media is this corrupt today.

      But and still, across the web, SNP losing 7 seats last weeks, BBC Scotland charts, BBC Scotland reports etc, are all belting along.

      Dirty tricks BBC style, all to keep the tories in power, is a nice way of putting it.

    168. Dr Jim says:

      Just received my latest Liberal Democrat Bumff
      which states: You don’t have to agree with us on everything but you have to agree the SNP must be stopped

      So there you are folks we should all help the Liberal Democrats stop the party we are all voting for because we don’t like the rest of them, including the Liberal Democrats

      It’s the arrogance though “You *have* to agree”

      Just waiting for them to come round my door telling me what I *have* to do

    169. ronnie anderson says:

      @ jfngw {If only there was a way to stop paying my licence fee but still have access non BBC channels. Being force fed with propaganda, but even worse, making me pay for the privilege. }

      SIMPLES

      Cancel your licence DD/Payment card by writing to them & claiming your 6mths prepayment back, & not to approach your home afterwards.

      A piece of paper doesn’t stop you receiving a broadcast signal its in the Airwaves . Im over 3yrs NON PAYER 100s of threatening letters & they still wont take me to a Court ( i wonder why ) wee clue They’re in breach of They’re own Royal Charter & there’s plenty examples / evidence should you need it .

    170. Robbo says:

      ronnie anderson says:
      10 May, 2017 at 10:21 am
      @ jfngw {If only there was a way to stop paying my licence fee but still have access non BBC channels. Being force fed with propaganda, but even worse, making me pay for the privilege. }

      SIMPLES

      Cancel your licence DD/Payment card by writing to them & claiming your 6mths prepayment back, & not to approach your home afterwards.

      A piece of paper doesn’t stop you receiving a broadcast signal its in the Airwaves . Im over 3yrs NON PAYER 100s of threatening letters & they still wont take me to a Court ( i wonder why ) wee clue They’re in breach of They’re own Royal Charter & there’s plenty examples / evidence should you need it .

      No being funny,but, well,

      Will I still get “Line of Duty”?

    171. Pete says:

      ..I’ve said it before, I don’t even trust the BBC football results anymore..!

    172. call me dave says:

      Hi been out and about since early but esconced in the cafe now after car journey. Radio 5 coming from Edinburgh just started with the usual cringe Edinburgh rock and haggis comments.

      Apparently giving Darn Sarf a taste of politics from Scotland party leaders getting to chat but no mention of FM being on as it is all about Edinburgh… Get the drift!

      I’ve had my porridge already from from Kaye on Education SNP bad Mr Swinney says! 🙂

    173. Capella says:

      Hilarious Simon Heffer piece in the Telegraph. Can’t read much of it because of paywall. But enough is visible to catch his drift:
      https://archive.is/1CTSq

      It is a choice between a hardline, confiscatory and redistributive socialism that borders on Bolshevism, and a liberal conservatism that champions private enterprise, aspiration, prosperity and efficiency.
      Voters should also notice how badly the SNP run public services, notably education. To takes seats off the SNP now will prove that the Sturgeon ideal of a Scottish republic with her as Queen has been effectively put in the dustbin, where…

      Ex Labour voters will be delighted to read that the SNP is so far left to be called “Bolshevik”.

      Royalists will be delighted to read that Nicola plans to be a Queen in a republic.

      Are British Nationalists just stupid and ill-informed?

    174. Robert Peffers says:

      Here in Kelty I may have a little more insight than most folks. My step-son used to pal around with Willie Rennie’s eldest son.

      Also, when the now deputy leader of Labour in Scotland, Alex Rowley, was a wee boy he was, like a lot more of those his age, got their minor, and sometimes not so minor, injuries patched up by my ex-nurse wife.

      Her nursing experience was such that she knew when a childhood injury required more than a sticking plaster stitch, a big dose of sympathy, or a symbolic big bandage.

      Tell you this, though, life was never dull. I’ll always remember one wee very ragged arsed kid who knocked the door with a skint knee. It was lunch time and this kid looked like he hadn’t had a decent meal in a week.

      So after the Skint Knee was bathed and patched up Jessie asked him if he would like a bite of dinner.

      The eyes in the wee dirty face opened up wide. I got the job of, “dichting”, the face and hands. The wee guy sat down with us to our meal.

      The wee lad tucked in and then added his, already quite clean, plate to the dishes in the sink. Then came through to the Living Room and plonked himself down on my knee, saying, in what he thought was a grown-up voice, “Cist Ah joyed that”.

      Some things just always stick in your memory.

    175. Maryscot says:

      O/T
      Breaking news – CPS say NO criminal charges against conservatives for electoral fraud. Insufficient evidence.

    176. schrodingers cat says:

      no tories to be procecuted

      um…..

    177. ScotsRenewables says:

      The Crown Prosecution Service has put out this statement. It’s from Nick Vamos, its head of special crime.

      “We have considered files of evidence from 14 police forces in respect of allegations relating to Conservative Party candidates’ expenditure during the 2015 General Election campaign.

      We considered whether candidates and election agents working in constituencies that were visited by the Party’s ‘Battle Bus’ may have committed a criminal offence by not declaring related expenditure on their local returns. Instead, as the Electoral Commission found in its report, these costs were recorded as national expenditure by the Party.

      We reviewed the files in accordance with the Code for Crown Prosecutors and have concluded the tests in the Code are not met and no criminal charges have been authorised.

      Under the Representation of the People Act, every candidate and agent must sign a declaration on the expenses return that to the best of their knowledge and belief it is a complete and correct return as required by law. It is an offence to knowingly make a false declaration. In order to bring a charge, it must be proved that a suspect knew the return was inaccurate and acted dishonestly in signing the declaration. Although there is evidence to suggest the returns may have been inaccurate, there is insufficient evidence to prove to the criminal standard that any candidate or agent was dishonest.

      The Act also makes it a technical offence for an election agent to fail to deliver a true return. By omitting any ‘Battle Bus’ costs, the returns may have been inaccurate. However, it is clear agents were told by Conservative Party headquarters that the costs were part of the national campaign and it would not be possible to prove any agent acted knowingly or dishonestly. Therefore we have concluded it is not in the public interest to charge anyone referred to us with this offence.

      Our evaluation of the evidence is consistent with that of the Electoral Commission. While the role of the Commission is to regulate political finances and campaign spending, the role of the CPS is to consider whether any individual should face criminal charges, which is a different matter with different consideration and tests.

      One file, from Kent Police, was only recently received by the CPS, and remains under consideration. No inference as to whether any criminal charge may or may not be authorised in relation to this file should be drawn from this fact and we will announce our decision as soon as possible once we have considered the evidence in this matter.”

    178. Macart says:

      @Maryscot

      Well who knew?

    179. Jack Murphy says:

      The BBC?
      View and listen to it with a small dose of salt and a large inhalation of sal volatile!

      The Director of the BBC in Scotland said last year:

      “I think it was [BBC director general] Tony Hall in his introduction to our Charter pitch who said: ‘We are stewards of a great institution.’

      I believe that I am just that – a steward of what I regard as an institution and a really important institution for Scotland and for Scottish audiences.”

      BBC Public Relations Speak. A load of Hot Air.
      Repeat it often enough and some folk may even begin to believe you—not !

    180. Robert Peffers says:

      Apparently the CPS are putting up a crowd-funding appeal as their supplies of official Whitewash have, for some unknown reason, reached dangerously low levels.

      It is extremely important, and in the National interest, that these official Whitewash reserved be maintained at a level that maintains National security.

      Please give generously.

    181. starlaw says:

      From the word go this was going to be the outcome.
      Any hunt saboteur could have told you that. Legal action in Britain is decided on whether the meaning of the law has been broken.
      The meaning of the law is decided by the chums of those whom ordinary folk think are breaking the law.

    182. ronnie anderson says:

      @ Robbo ( Line of Duty ) Aye you can get it in Catch Up chist klik You have a TV licence ( they tell lies , you can do the same ) lol.

    183. Capella says:

      Oh well. They can cancel the election now.

    184. Tam Fae somewhere says:

      So May didn’t need to call a general election after all…..

    185. ronnie anderson says:

      @ Robert Peffers

      The CPS or any other Establishment body in Westminster’s control will never run out of Whitewash, not as long as there’s Lime Quarries in England. They might have a problem if they run out of the other ingredient Watter lol.

    186. Capella says:

      It’s not just Tory alleged fraud that isn’t being prosecuted. Here’s a RSPB video of a hen harrier being shot. The CPS won’t allow this as evidence. So nobody will be prosecuted.
      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-39817702/video-shows-alleged-hen-harrier-shooting

      Of course, the RSPB are furious. But the law appears to protect the landed gentry and companies registered overseas in tax havens so that their employees can shoot, poison and trap protected species at will.

      To put it another way, they can destroy our natural heritage for profit and the legal protections we think we have established don’t act.

      https://www.rspb.org.uk/community/ourwork/skydancer/b/skydancer/archive/2017/05/05/alleged-hen-harrier-shooting-case-dropped.aspx

    187. Robbo says:

      ronnie anderson says:
      10 May, 2017 at 11:36 am
      @ Robbo ( Line of Duty ) Aye you can get it in Catch Up chist klik You have a TV licence ( they tell lies , you can do the same ) lol.

      Aye lol

      Other thing is not having the lovely Naga on breakfast tv at moment is really peeving me off, only reason i watch BBC morning dribble.

    188. Capella says:

      @ crazycat – it is certainly on the cards that May will crash out of the EU without an agreement. Having a five year term to manage the damage would be better than the three years she currently has. Even so – it’s a long and expensive way of postponing the backlash.
      But for Tories no expense is spared. It’s not their money after all.

    189. schrodingers cat says:

      believe in something

      youtu.be/XLMYgb7xs38



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