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Wings Over Scotland


Dead duck walking

Posted on July 08, 2013 by

We’ve explored the “Kinnock Factor” previously on this site, but some numbers from the latest YouGov weekly polling surprised even us today. Labour’s lead over the midterm Conservative-led government is still falling – to just 6% this time – and Ed Miliband’s personal ratings are even worse than David Cameron’s, but that wasn’t it.

yougov

You’ll probably want to click on that image to enlarge it.

The headline figures aren’t exactly an earth-shattering shock:

David Cameron net approval rating (UK): -20
Ed Miliband net approval rating (UK): -34

But the Scottish sub-sample is startling:

David Cameron net approval rating (Scotland): -39
Ed Miliband net approval rating (Scotland): -34

Now, as we’ve noted on a few occasions, sub-sample results (144 people on this occasion) are next to worthless for measuring anything with any precision or nuance. But even the crudest broad brush ought to reflect the fact that Scotland is a vastly more Labour-friendly region than the UK as a whole, and for Miliband to be rated no higher north of the border than he is in the national numbers is close to astonishing.

(Just 18% of Scottish respondents thought he’d “provided an effective opposition”, and only 20% thought he “would be up to the job of Prime Minister”, although 39% identified themselves as Labour voters. Even if we allow an enormous 50% margin of error for the small sample size those are terrible stats, maxing out at fewer than a third of voters.)

Cameron’s rating among Scots is twice as bad as in the whole of Britain, as you’d expect. But even factoring in SNP voters, for Scotland to have such a low opinion of a Labour leader makes a mockery of the notion that Miliband can lead his party to victory in 2015. Get ready for a Tory government until at least 2020, folks.

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103 to “Dead duck walking”

  1. Bill C says:

    ” Get ready for a Tory government until at least 2020, folks.”  Almost a certainty, even Labour bloggers like Dan Hodges are conceding defeat in 2015.  The good news is that it’s a “certainty” only in England. I become more convinced by the day of a YES vote. There are a number of factors coming together just at the right time to ensure victory.  No Tory  governments again in Scotland after 2014.

  2. handclapping says:

    Not that the Scotch results will have any influence of the Westminster outcome, but there are 11 LibDem seats in Scotland. With Clegg’s rating, even on a sub sample, it makes 17 SNP seats quite likely.
    With no LibDems what is the betting on a Tory / UKIP coalition? Now there’s scary!

  3. southernscot says:

    Grim reading for Miliband. even the spell check doesn’t like his name.

  4. Doug Daniel says:

    Ahhh but Stu, you’re forgetting one thing – One Nation.
     
    Ed has successfully united everyone on these isles in their dissatisfaction with him. A triumph!!!

  5. Marker Post says:

     
    So in the UK General Election in 2015, Scotland would either get Cameron (67% of Scots think he’s doing badly), or Miliband (61% of Scots think he’s doing badly).
     
    The choice is clear: Vote Yes.
     
     

  6. Barontorc says:

    There is a lot of money going on YES and the odds are shortening significantly.
     
    Let’s give it a few more weeks to see a definite trend. That will put the cat amongst the pigeons. It’s all looking good folks.

  7. Juan Bonnets says:

    Looking at the data tables, it appears that by sheer coincidence the single person in Scotland who thinks Nick Clegg is doing “very well” answered this poll. What are the chances?

    Nice to note the YouGov Scottish sub-samples are still tiny – here in Glasgow Kelvin we’ve spoken to more people during our last three canvassing sessions, therefore I can claim with equal* authority that support for independence stands at 41%, with 20% against and 39% undecided. 

    *i.e. zero.

  8. Max says:

     
    Neither ‘N’ick, ‘E’d nor ‘D’ave will do. Scots don’t like NEDs

  9. Iain says:

    I think in at least one YG Scottish sub-sample Miliband has had lower approval than Cameron.
    In the 2010 GE Labour actually improved their vote in Scotland, much trumpeted by them and ascribed to the tactical genius (sic) of Murphy and the Brown effect up here. Despite being consistently in negative figures in England Brown had positive Scottish approval right up to the GE. I think we can assume the Miliband effect might have a completely different meaning the next round.

    O/t, Yahoo trotting out all the metropolitan Westminster clichés in an almost Pavlovian way.

    ‘Alex Salmond’s cheap Wimbledon trick shows the cynicism behind the smile’
     
    http://tinyurl.com/n7hhrsp

  10. Marker Post says:

     
    Article in the Guardian reiterating pretty much what Rev Stu said last week:
     
    “Falling membership has allowed small cliques to control our politics. It’s a failed model, but the powerful like it that way”.
     

  11. Luigi says:

    This is looking extremely bleak for Labour, whatever happens in 2014. The ferocious right-wing press onslaught against the Labour has not even started properly. And when it does, Miliband will be chopped up and minced. With the Labour-UNITE fiasco in Falkirk (and probably elsewhere), the UK press have plenty of material to get their teeth into. They smell blood.  When Murray mania dies down in a week or two, the theme of Red Ed and his union masters will be revisited again and again, all the way to 2015. Attempts to protect Labour in Scotland will be futile. Where London MSM lead, BBC Scotland, however reluctant, must follow, dragging their little feet behind them.

  12. Ivan McKee says:

    @ handclapping.

    There is a scenario that after the Yes vote in 2014 the UK GE 2015 (which Scotland will still vote in unless something is changed), throws up Labour as the largest UK party – maybe 2 or 3 seats ahead of the Tories, but ONLY  because they have 25 MPs from Scotland, and the SNP with 30 or so MPs holding the balance of power at Westminster.

    Now that would be a constitutional pantomime of the highest order.

    (And I don’t think its that unlikely : if the Tories pull back to level with Labour at a UK level by 2015 (which is probably what will happen) and Scottish voters want to send a strong SNP team to Westminster for the negotiations – while SLAB goes into meltdown after a referendum loss – then I think that’s exactly where we will be)
     
     

  13. Bugger (the Panda) says:

    Juan Bonnets = Andy Capp?
     
     a bottle of red will do for the prize

  14. Vronsky says:

    I’m uncomfortable with the assumptions hiding in the argument that you should vote for independence in 2014 because New Labour can’t win in 2015.  New Labour is just another Tory party.  All that will be decided in 2015 is which Tory party, or cartel of Tory parties, will form the UK government.  Please, let’s not imply that things will be better if New Labour win – they won’t, and they could even be worse.

  15. Bugger (the Panda) says:

    too lateral Vronsky

  16. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “I’m uncomfortable with the assumptions hiding in the argument that you should vote for independence in 2014 because New Labour can’t win in 2015. New Labour is just another Tory party.”

    Yes, of course it is. WE know that. The people who resist it are Labour voters who will vote No if they think they’re going to win in 2015. A substantial number of them will vote Yes if they think the Tories are going to win, and those are the people we have to talk to.

  17. Bugger (the Panda) says:

    put a bloody tick box , or  oop doon buttons, (after having signed in, please.).
     

  18. John Lyons says:

    I find this easy to believe. Cameron is a horible person with horrible policies, but he’s going about implementing them with some ability. The current government are only incapable on two fronts, managing the economy and deporting Hamza. (Whether you agree with thier policies or not is an entirely different matter!)
     
    Miliband on the other hand can’t even keep people who are supposed to be on his side in line, as per the Falkirk debacle. That will kill Labours 2015 election hopes and with the Tories currently in charge I would not be surprised if the police investigtion which Miliband ASKED FOR publishes it’s findings in early 2015. Labour are made to look like a bunch of corupt crooks, congratulations Mr Cameron, well played.

  19. Boorach says:

    Radio Scotland reporting that the tories have asked the police to investigate labours selection process two more constituencies. In London this time

  20. HandandShrimp says:

    The Conservatives were going to ask the police to investigate Falkirk  too but Labour tried to head that one off at the pass. I think the Tories smell blood on this. A fight between Milliband and the Union that got him elected over his brother is manna from heaven for the Conservatives. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they introduce some new opt in political levy legislation to cripple Labour before 2015 on the back of this. It is something they have fantasised about for years.

  21. Max says:

     
    I would imagine that both Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander will be happy with these polling figures for Ed Miliband.
     
    It seems Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander, Caroline Flint and Ivan Lewis have been briefing against Miliband to the newspapers.  They are the ones involved  in trying to cut links between Labour and the unions. They are the ones who have been arguing that Miliband should be supporting Tory cuts.
     
    Would we be surprised to find out that that the recent revelations at Falkirk and elsewhere can be traced back to both Murphy and Alexander. 
     
    It seems that Ed Miliband’s enemies are all in his cabinet. 

  22. HandandShrimp says:

    The old political joke introducing a new MP to the House “remember, the other side are just the opposition, your enemies are behind you”.

  23. Atypical_Scot says:

    And from the ashes of the ashes of the ashes of the ashes of Labour will come forth NeoLab 2014. “twiggy-twiggy” Repetitively bankrupt, repetitively shecht.

  24. ronald alexander mcdonald says:

    Have to laugh at Miliband’s statement regarding cutting off union financial backing. Who does he think he’s kidding?  No union money no Labour party. Maybe he’s taking tactical advice from Better Together. 

  25. Juteman says:

    It’s widely reported that Labour are 10 million in debt.
    Who is the lender?

  26. Bugger (the Panda) says:

    to Juteman

    The Co-op bank
     
    Ding dong

  27. Juteman says:

    To bugger.
    Say no more. 🙂

  28. Jiggsbro says:

    It’s widely reported that Labour are 10 million in debt.
     
    Yes, but they expect to start making a profit as soon as they’re elected.

  29. The difference between the RedTories and the BlueTories is like the difference between a punch or a kick to the nuts. They’ll both hurt but one might hurt that little bit more.
     

  30. Braco says:

    Welsh not British,
    What difference does it make? It’s a continual cycle of punches and kicks to the nuts!

  31. Titler says:

    Sorry Stu, can’t agree at all on this interpretation; “Do you think X is doing badly” is a typically poor polling question, because it doesn’t ask for the reason for the response, and the reason will considerably effect the final voting intentions.

    If the answer is “He’s not left wing enough”, then you would expect Milliband to have high unpopularity in places that don’t like the Tories, however you also wouldn’t expect it to turn into votes for Labour places like Scotland, because there’s a more left wing alternative in the north. In England however, low polling for Milliband will still turn into Labour votes at the General as they’re seen as the most left wing of the assumed alternatives.

    You could make the case that this is what has in fact happened with the recent Falkirk debacle; that the polls have moved away from Labour, as their first response was to abuse the unions, be even more Torier than thou, and walked straight into the Tory trap. And the electorate in England feels safe, this far from the General, in giving Labour a pummelling in the polling for that. I believe Milliband is much, much closer to being in the position that Barack Obama is; there’s considerable disgust for Obama’s betrayal of progressive politics, expressed right the way up to the 2012 elections, but the alternative was much, much worse so he won an almost identical victory to his landslide first.

    No… you’d have a much stronger case if you’d have argued that Labour were likely to win, and we’d still get a lot more Tory policies because they don’t actually know or care what the electorate actually wants either. But baring the greatest economic upturn in recorded history, I just cannot see the actual Tory Party as even a long shot to win the next election. Coming up next, as also reported in the Guardian… Universal Credit in October, 10bn over budget and not working even now, whereby every single benefit claimant is expected to switch from fortnightly to monthly payments, and having to claim them online (and go to a not-at-all-closed and not-at-all-fictional training scheme to use the not-at-all-not-there library online services if you don’t have or can’t use a computer). It’s going to be a complete clusterfuck. And after that… 

    Nope, we’ll get the other Tory Party, I’m certain of it. Which is heartbreaking true, but I just can’t agree that the actual Nasty ones are going to get in. I know many in England are stupid, but when they can boo Osbourne at the Paralympics of all places, I just can’t believe they’re quite that blindly stupid. They’ll vote for the heat to be turned up just a little bit less, I’m sure of it.

  32. kevybaby says:

    @ John Lyons
    John, I’m actually prepared to give cameron the benefit of the doubt. I think he’s been a gent about the whole referendum and seems to genuinely believe in the union. Obviously I dont agree with his policies or the union in its current form. I also think hes played a blinder in letting labour stitch themselves up in the better together campaign!! 🙂

  33. Richie says:

    Sorry slightly OT
    Just had to post this image. Hilarious!
    What’s Milliband thinking? Scottish Skier theory perhaps?

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151692436354604&set=a.399897414603.175695.318151134603&type=1&theater

  34. Bugger (the Panda) says:

    +ve
     

  35. kevybaby says:

    does anyone else find douglas alexander to be a very slimy piece of work?

  36. Bugger (the Panda) says:

    Why do you say that kevybaby?

  37. Juteman says:

    @Titler.
    A wanker is a wanker.

  38. scottish_skier says:

    @Richie
    LOL. Crackin photo.
    AS and DC do seen to get on reasonably well in a polite, gentlemanly way. Why? Cameron is not the enemy – the Tories are well and truly beaten in Scotland. All they can do is make sure it all goes smoothly. Hell if they can hang on to Scotland for a few more years then great, but beating Labour is the main prize.

  39. Bugger (the Panda) says:

    to SS

    double plus good

  40. kevybaby says:

    @ bugger
    dougy alexander? theres something of the smiling assassin about him, i find it very off-putting!

  41. Bugger (the Panda) says:

    Ok
     
    and the rest of the gang, are they less oleaginous?

  42. handclapping says:

    And if you realy, realy want to be scared of what might happen after a no vote, then the IPPR paper on the English and their Unions is a must read. The one saving grace is that they are also flying with – the English are fed up with Westminster -. Are they going to cotton on to what people in Scotland have been saying since 1886?

  43. kevybaby says:

    @bugger
    ha ha!! no, they are overtly so, its the underhandness (surely not a word) that does it with him. On that note, I was watching an old QT earlier and must compliment Margaret Curran on getting on so well in life despite having the inability to complete a sentence. 

  44. Bugger (the Panda) says:

    + good
     

  45. Juteman says:

    Alexander, like Murphy, is another who went to the US for finishing school.
    They are both cuckoos in the nest.

  46. Baheid says:

    O/T But, ‘David from Falkirk’ on Call Kay(with an e), suggesting that the discussion, (about Andy Murray and how much of his victory can Scotland really claim), reflects the general debate on BBC Scot on independence.
    i.e. the panic their is with bbc scot  employees terrified the effect indi might have on their jobs.
     
    45.55 mins in.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0367gxn

  47. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Nope, we’ll get the other Tory Party, I’m certain of it.”

    I’d happily – if that’s the right word for betting on the election of a Tory government – wager you pretty much anything you like that we won’t. I’ve rarely, if ever, been so certain about an election result so far out. History simply points SO strongly against Labour on just about every measure. No opposition leader with ratings this bad has become Prime Minister. No opposition with such a slender lead in mid-term wins next time round. First-time governments rarely get kicked out after a single term. Etc etc.

    Only UKIP present any sort of hope for Labour, and my feeling is that by 2015 they’ll either be so strong they’ll win enough seats to make an alliance with the Tories, or their surge will have subsided and their voters – seeing that they’re not going to succeed – will reluctantly return to the Tories to stop Labour getting in. The European elections in May 2014 will probably answer that question, and by the autumn we’ll know which way the wind is blowing.

  48. Adrian B says:

    I really do wish that people would stop this absolute nonsense about the affect the Indy result will have on jobs at the BBC.
     
    Je**s wept – your all a bunch of complete crackpots if you think this helps in the Indy debate in any way. It doesn’t, its rubbish and makes ‘Yes’ supporters look like they are complete idiots.
     

  49. Dal Riata says:

    @Iain 2.34 pm
    Yahoo have got form in this kind of dishonesty. The article you linked to is fairly typical of Yahoo’s mendacious, misinforming, and often times lying FUD regarding Scotland and its independence.
     
    The Guardian is increasing its standing within the Britnat Bitter Together Project Fear UKOK Scotland Vote No Cabal with each new editorial piece it produces about Scotland. Their latest has a go at Salmond for the flag-waving, the usual over-exaggeration-for-political-ends about Andy Murray’s Anyone But England non-story, how we’re all really just one big lovely-jubbly British family, and ‘best’ of all, a mention of…Braveheart! LOL! Pathetic.
     
    And this from a ‘newspaper’ that likes to proclaim itself as being left-of-centre! The upcoming 2014 referendum has really shown up who and what the Guardian really is politically.
     
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/07/andy-murray-victory-his-alone-british-editorial

  50. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “It doesn’t, its rubbish and makes ‘Yes’ supporters look like they are complete idiots.”

    Not sure I understand your argument. A Yes vote would almost certainly mean the end of BBC Scotland. It’s entirely possible that an independent Scotland would seek to create its own licence fee and “buy out” the organisation wholesale to minimise disruption, but it’s in no way a given.

    It’s entirely rational to suggest that BBC Scotland employees would, purely for reasons of direct personal interest rather than political ideology, much prefer a No vote. And it’s beyond any sane dispute that the Corporation would.

  51. IainGraysSubwayLament says:

    Ed Miliband always looked like a weak mistake. He’s labour leader because he’s NOT David Miliband and rallied the “anyone but David” vote, particularly around the unions, not because Ed was considered a charismatic or strong leader.
     
    Ed is going to do some serious posturing tomorrow on unions and may even be forced by the Blairites to have some kind of policy shift on them. Those kind of blue labour panic measures will hardly go down well with the remaining old labour stalwarts who may foolishly think tories bashing unions is not reason enough for  Ed to pile in to the attack too.
     
    What we will be seeing from now till the referendum in labour and scottish labour is a continuation of the attempts by the Blairites (like wee Dougie and Murphy) to impose their will on the rudderless and flailing leadership of Ed Miliband. Expect yet more blue labour tory policies from Ed and friends with Lamont to nodding them through here.
     
    Much as this labour infighting and weak leadership from Ed could well see a tory resurgence the tories have a rather large problem to overcome before parity in the polls or even a lead can occur. That problem is themselves, The tory leadership is incompetent and have shot themselves in the foot too many times for that to be ruled out yet again. There is also the small matter of some very high profile court cases still to come that could throw the tory leadership into absolute chaos. Do not underestimate how hugely damaging they may well be.
    You also have the coming EU elections which are going to see the tory backbenchers start to panic over UKIP yet again.
     
    The lib dems are mostly an irrelevance. Clegg is still busy killing his own base with his yelllow tory cowardice.
     
    Given the continued austerity, wage stagnation and incompetent ConDem government this should be an opposition party leaders dream come true. Yet labour’s poll leads over the tories are small and growing smaller, while Ed’s own personal ratings are are pitiful.
     
    If the current dreck from lib lab con is the best westminster can come up with then good luck persuading the public that those MPs are worth another £10,000 a throw pay rise and that scotland can’t manage without them.

  52. Archibald Berwick Melrose [aka Archie] says:

    @ Ian 2.34pm and Dal Riata 7.50pm regarding Yahoo News report by one of their political writers ‘Ian Dunt’ on the quote ‘Alex Salmonds cheap Wimbledon trick…..’

    I am on the point of total feckuppity frenzy at the audacity of such a plebian feckwit to write such, such…….mendacious [thanks Dal], malicious, tripe, hogwash and supercilious sneering. As is my want I did a simple search on the feckwit and found that he is the Editor of ‘Erotic Review’ magazine and a quick search in the Gallery section shows the perverted pornographic stuff that he promotes. If this is the kind of writer that complains about our FM then he should ‘think again’ Ian Dunt…your card is marked. Yahoo has disgraced itself.

  53. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “dougy alexander? theres something of the smiling assassin about him,”

    Wee Dougie couldn’t assassinate the skin off a rice pudding.

  54. scottish_skier says:

    The European elections in May 2014 will probably answer that question, and by the autumn we’ll know which way the wind is blowing.

    Yup. Right now, Labour are fecked.

    People must remember that UKGEs are not decided by the population of the UK (as per polls), but a relatively small number of swing seats; most of these being concentrated in the SE of England. In those areas Labour is viewed as a disaster responsible for the current economic crisis, with the Tories or UKIP now the flavour for swing voters.

    In all probability the next UK government will be led by the Tories or will be a Tory majority.

  55. Marcia says:

    Scottish Skier
    Just as USA Presidential election are decided by a minority of swing states.

  56. IainGraysSubwayLament says:

    “Wee Dougie couldn’t assassinate the skin off a rice pudding.”

    Neither, when it came to the crunch, could David Miliband as he bottled it over toppling Brown. That didn’t stop wee Dougie from throwing his lot in with David or from then briefing against Ed very early on when Ed was looking even more shaky than right now.
     
    Point being the Blairites will not be toppling Ed any more than they toppled Brown but that won’t stop them from refighting the Brown Blair battles and undermining Ed at every turn if he doesn’t do precisely what they want. That disloyalty and infighting hardly helped Brown and it certainly won’t help Ed.

  57. kininvie says:

    Just to bring us all back to reality – I’m back from a bit of doorstepping.
    There’s an astonishing number of don’t knows/haven’t thought about it still. In comparison, the convinced Yes and the convinced No are relatively rare.
    Numerous older folk claim never to go online. Younger ones say they do, but not for political stuff
    I love this site and the debate it generates – but we ought never to forget what a tiny minority we are. Reaching out to the undecided is the most important thing we can do..

  58. macdoc says:

    o/t Andy Murray on Scottish Independence. 
    I think he’s for it. 
    http://www.channel4.com/news/andy-murray-wimbledon-winner-jon-snow-video

  59. Jim Mitchell says:

    And the present goings on re Falkirk etc aint going to help him either.
     
    Off topic but, RIP Kay Matheson, Scottish Patriot.

  60. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “People must remember that UKGEs are not decided by the population of the UK (as per polls), but a relatively small number of swing seats; most of these being concentrated in the SE of England.”

    Absolutely. Labour can get every single vote in Britain north of Birmingham and they’d still lose if they can’t win seats in the SE. You win on seats, not the popular vote, which is why polls are at best an incomplete guide and applying uniform swings is a mug’s game.

  61. Jiggsbro says:

    It’s entirely rational to suggest that BBC Scotland employees would, purely for reasons of direct personal interest rather than political ideology, much prefer a No vote. And it’s beyond any sane dispute that the Corporation would.
     
    This is undoubtedly true,  but we know it to be true because we’ve thought about it and we’ve followed all the steps in the logical argument. The problem comes when we present the logical conclusion, without the steps that got us there, to people who haven’t thought about it. People who are starting from the position  of ‘knowing’ that “The BBC is impartial” are going to dismiss as crackpot the statement “The BBC are pro-Union because they’re worried about their jobs”, simply because it creates a cognitive dissonance.
     
    The moral is, of course, to show your working: make the argument rather than state the conclusion; engage with people rather than preach at them; explain rather than sloganise. While social media will be helpful in this campaign, it’s not often conducive to the sort of measured explanation of the facts and consequences that will persuade the undecided. People, talking to other people, will be what swings it and that takes time and grassroots organisation. That’s why we’ve got such a long run-up and why the Unionists were so anxious to hurry the process along. We’d have lost in the short term. We’ll win in the long, because the arguments are all in our favour. We just have to make them.

  62. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    (Actually, I just plucked Birmingham more or less at random there. It would be passingly interesting to work out where the 50%-of-seats line is geographically. ANY VOLUNTEERS?)

  63. HandandShrimp says:

    macdoc
     
    I thought  Andy was very diplomatic. I wouldn’t say he was for or against. Like a great many he is in the still making his mind up stage. What he isn’t is a reactionary died in the wool Unionist and that is kind of good.

  64. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “I love this site and the debate it generates – but we ought never to forget what a tiny minority we are. Reaching out to the undecided is the most important thing we can do..”

    Couldn’t agree more. Got some plans to produce doorstepper-friendly materials for 2014. Depending how next year’s fundraiser goes, of course 😀

  65. Doug says:

    Krackerman
     
    The old oath is outdated somewhat. It is a document of great significance because it set a moral code for medical practice, but itwas a product of it’s time.
     
    Having us swear to Greek deities that we will not remove kidney stones, shag slaves etc would be wrong. It needed updated for the modern legal/cultural environment.
     
    The specific point on health economics is interesting. We work within systems and “the greatest good for the greatest number” is our aim. The cancer drugs brouhaha (copyright J Lamont) wilfully plays on emotion and demonstrates this point. A drug that costs tens of thousands to increase life by a few weeks, or vast amounts of routine care with definite benefits for hundreds? Of course, that does not neglect the fact that end of life is sad snd can be hard to face, that extra time with loved ones may be utterly precious. But we work within a system with limited resources. We cant pretend otherwise.

  66. Marcia says:

    Rev
    I would not say there was a line but area clusters of marginals. You have the area north of Manchchester.  Near your neck of the wood you have the Reading/Stroud area, Attached is the list of marginals from the 2010 election:
    http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/maj.htm

  67. Doug says:

    Bigger – wrong thread. Clearly meant it to go on the mos def one…

  68. Shinty says:

    scottish_ skier – I think you theory becomes more clear every day.
     

  69. Dal Riata says:

     @Archiballed  Berwick Melsrose (aka Archie) at 8.18 pm
    As I said previously, Yahoo has got an extensive back-catalogue on Project Fear-based FUD-as-truth articles already regarding anything that could be seen as something positive about Scotland being reported as being bad…Bad Scotland bad! Meanwhile, the  Britnat Unionist can do no wrong. There is a word or term that escapes me right now that describes this kind of journalism, one which creates falsehoods in such a convincing way that you could be easily taken in by them as the ‘truth’. Can anyone out there help me in recalling that word or term? Something apart from ‘propaganda’?

  70. Shinty says:

    Couldn’t agree more. Got some plans to produce doorstepper-friendly materials for 2014. Depending how next year’s fundraiser goes, of course
     
    Will definitely donate to that. Yes Scotland do a good job, but it’s always way too much reading (not for me, but for the don’t knows) I can hardly get my friends engaged let alone have them read through zillions of paper. I cannot believe that there is still such a lack of interest.

  71. Boorach says:

    The Alexander brother reminds me of Mandelson….. the silky voice, measured calmness and snake-oil sleekitness with oh so perfect grooming.

  72. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Will definitely donate to that. Yes Scotland do a good job, but it’s always way too much reading (not for me, but for the don’t knows) I can hardly get my friends engaged let alone have them read through zillions of paper.”

    Aye. Aiming to produce something comprehensive but really snappy and concise. Groundwork already under way, but no point doing it before next spring.

  73. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “I would not say there was a line but area clusters of marginals.”

    I’m not after a definitive predictory guide, just a simple bare arithmetic/geography line for purposes of rhetorical illustration. Starting from the bottom of Cornwall and counting upwards on the map, when do you get to 326 seats?

  74. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “I thought Andy was very diplomatic. I wouldn’t say he was for or against. Like a great many he is in the still making his mind up stage. What he isn’t is a reactionary died in the wool Unionist and that is kind of good.”

    Indeed. I thought it came across as someone being very careful not to say anything that could be construed either way. I hope he really is undecided, because it’s my absolute conviction that anyone who approaches the decision with an open mind, looking at the facts, can only vote Yes.

    I’m still quite interested as to how he has a vote, given that as far as I know he lives in Surrey and Florida.

  75. Archibald Berwick Melrose [aka Archie] says:

    @ Dal Riata – OBSFURCATION methinks is the word

  76. muttley79 says:

    @Rev Stu
     
    A Yes vote would almost certainly mean the end of BBC Scotland. It’s entirely possible that an independent Scotland would seek to create its own licence fee and “buy out” the organisation wholesale to minimise disruption, but it’s in no way a given.
    It’s entirely rational to suggest that BBC Scotland employees would, purely for reasons of direct personal interest rather than political ideology, much prefer a No vote. And it’s beyond any sane dispute that the Corporation would.
     
    If there is a Yes vote and a SBC gets set up, I think it would be highly unlikely that there would be a mass clearout of staff from the current BBC Scotland.  There are a number of skilled journalists and presenters there, such as David Millar, Isobel Fraser, Gordon Brewer etc.  Also, it would make no sense to fire all the nice weather presenters, and the likes of Catriona Shearer… 😀

  77. ianbrotherhood says:

    @Rev-
    ‘Aiming to produce something comprehensive but really snappy and concise.’
     
    Please please, treble-please include McCrone.

  78. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “If there is a Yes vote and a SBC gets set up, I think it would be highly unlikely that there would be a mass clearout of staff from the current BBC Scotland.”

    Sure. But that’s still a lot of uncertainty to throw at someone’s livelihood. Will the organisation still be as big? Will you be one of the ones re-hired? What about your pension contributions? How long will the crossover period be when you might have no income? Etc.

    Point is, it’s a legitimate thing to discuss and I don’t think it really merited the angry contempt you treated it with.

  79. muttley79 says:

    @Rev Stu
     
    Point is, it’s a legitimate thing to discuss and I don’t think it really merited the angry contempt you treated it with.
     
    Eh, I did not treat it with angry contempt.  I should know I was the one who posted it. Why have you accused me of that?

  80. Peter says:

    All the mince about Scotland unable to pay for a defence force, I give you this…
    http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/3306528

  81. Shinty says:

    Aiming to produce something comprehensive but really snappy and concise.’
     
    I know you will do a grand job as with all your articles.
    Hope you don’t mind me mentioning it here but IMHO Newsnets A-Z is dripping with sarcasm and mostly unfunny, even I got bored reading it. Before I get hammered here, Newsnet do a good job too, but their A-Z is not for the undecided.
     
     

  82. IainGraysSubwayLament says:

    “which is why polls are at best an incomplete guide and applying uniform swings is a mug’s game.”
     
    Agreed and we’re going to see UKIP’s vote collapse from where they are polling come the GE. But, come the referendum the opinion polls are going to be the metric most casual observers in scotland will use to judge how likely another labour or tory government may be. Inaccurate or not if it even just looks like a tory win is possible or even likely then that’s going to be a huge factor.
     
    It’s also the other problem with relying on Ed’s ineffectual nature and weakness as a leader to manifest fully this far out from the GE. The complete extent of just how bad a choice Ed was won’t be apparent to the campaign proper not in the current VI polling. The final months and weeks of a campaign is when a leader’s fault’s become all too apparent as Iain Gray and Brown proved.
     
    Ed will flounder badly on the campaign trail. There’s just far too much of the indecisive policy wonk and nowhere near enough of the gritty streetfighting campaigner in him for it to be otherwise.

  83. Indy_Scot says:

    Just watched the Jon Snow and Andy Murray interview.
     
    How much did Andy want to take a tennis racket off of Jons head when he tried to portray him as being seen as British?

  84. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “But, come the referendum the opinion polls are going to be the metric most casual observers in scotland will use to judge how likely another labour or tory government may be.”

    Valid point, of course. Which is one reason we bang on about it here to try to get the message out.

  85. Dal Riata says:

    @ABM 9.47pm
    Ooohh that hit the bottom of the bar and bounced down but didn’t cross the line, sorry, good try! The word that you almost got is ‘obfuscation’:
     
    “Obfuscation (or beclouding) is the hiding of intended meaning in communication, making communication confusing, wilfully ambiguous, and harder to interpret.” from Wikipedia
     
    Thanks for the heads up, though!

  86. Archibald Berwick Melrose [aka Archie] says:

    @ Dal – Yes did notice the spelling after I posted but hoped you would miss it. Goal line technology would not have saved me. I am off to do my 100 lines – I WILL NOT CALL THE TEACHER A SCUNNER. 🙂

  87. Tamson says:

    Regarding Wee Dougie Alexander being slimy:
     
    Some may recall, back in 2007, a scandal concerning about £600k of dodgy donations to the Labour Party. It was from a NE England property tycoon called David Abrahams. During the course of the donations, the Highways Agency removed its objections to a controversial development at Bowburn, Co. Durham. The Highways Agency is, of course, ran by the Transport department in Whitehall. Now, guess who was the Transport Minister when these objections were dropped? Go on, guess…
     
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/1570629/Gordon-Brown-in-row-over-donations-scandal.html

  88. Barontorc says:

    Let sleeping dogs lie. Andy and his pal Chris Hoy will be as one on independence, as will every other Scot stuck under the UK-ist spotlight that demands they express an opinion, which can only be that, if they will not have a vote.
     
    Wonder what the unionista stushie would be like if the head politician of Serbia had produced their flag had the other guy won?
     
    They’re treating this like Ian Paisley attending a papal audience and shouting No Surrender while banging a huge big drum he smuggled in under his vest. They need to get a life – we’re taking ours back!
    Alex, by that one cheeky gesture put Scotland bang onto the world’s tv screens to millions!

  89. faltdubh says:

    The odds are getting longer by the day it seems towards Independence.
    A few months ago – No was 1/3 it’s not at 1/7 with Ladbrokes.
    If you fancy a punt, you can get up to 5-1 on us voting Yes with some people.
     
    I think they are probably correct at present too. I’m hoping and praying for a big push from Yes, but I fear we’ll reject Indy in Sept 🙁

  90. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “The odds are getting longer by the day it seems towards Independence.
    A few months ago – No was 1/3 it’s not at 1/7 with Ladbrokes.
    If you fancy a punt, you can get up to 5-1 on us voting Yes with some people.”

    Funnily enough, someone reported today that (I think) Coral had brought a Yes vote in to 3/1 from 11/2, which is quite a leap in favour. Guess it’s about where you look.

    EDIT: Yeah, here we are – 10/3 (so just slightly over 3/1) at Coral, with No at 1/5:
    http://sports.coral.co.uk/political-specials/uk/scottish-politics/scottish-independence-114587.html

    The second bet is weird – what’s “complete” independence?

    EDIT 2: More complete odds here:
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

  91. Craig P says:

    Rev – based on UK regions, ‘the north’ (Yorkshire, NE England, NW England, N Ireland, Scotland, Wales) has 279 constituencies. ‘The south’ (south east, south west, London, east Anglia) has 265 constituencies. The balance thus lies in the midlands constituencies. If the west midland’s 59 constituencies are added to the south, and the east midlands 44 constituencies are added to the north, then the south is ahead by 1 constituency (324 to 323).

    The halfway line would thus run up the Severn, between Cheshire and Staffordshire, down round the bottom of Northhamptonshire, then out to the east coast between Lincoln and Norfolk.

  92. Colin Dunn says:

    @Wings
    Couldn’t agree more. Got some plans to produce doorstepper-friendly materials for 2014. Depending how next year’s fundraiser goes, of course.

    I’m hoping to add some printable A5 and A4 downloadable flyers for this very purpose to my http://www.indyposterboy.info site shortly – maybe even this evening. Handy for printing out and handing around.

  93. Training Day says:

    @Colin Dunn
     
    Colin, good stuff.  Have passed the link to your site on to others, there’s a good set of materials there.

  94. Braco says:

    faltdubh,
    the bookies have no ‘opinion’ or special info on the outcome of the referendum. They simply calculate their odds as covering odds, depending on the amounts of money they are taking on each outcome.
     
    This is why they do a calculation prior to accepting each large ish bet. If they accept it, they will then recalculate and the odds will change for the next punter.
     
    That’s why the punter that recently bet £200k on a NO vote (idiot) was forced to place it over three bets, each bet getting worse and worse odds. (bigger and bigger idiot)
     
    Bookies simply want to make a profit, or at the very least calculate their covering bets so that they will minimise their losses should the result go against them.
     
    If you want short odds on Indy, simply go to a bookies and place £1 million on a Yes vote in as many bets as they will allow. Job done. But remember, put those betting slips in a safe place! (bigsmiley)

  95. Braco says:

    Craig P,
    thanks for that research, very interesting and quite revealing! Cheers

  96. Patrick Roden says:

    It just gets worse and worse for Ed and the labour Party.
    The strangest thing about the story in this link is our very own professor Curtice admits that labours vote is soft in UK terms.
    isn’t it strange how some people quickly change their tune when speaking to UK wide audiences.
     
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-lead-smallest-for-a-year-as-ukip-threatens-all-three-parties-8652863.html

  97. Holebender says:

    Speaking of bets on the referendum, it seems Ladbrokes have stopped taking bets on YES getting over 35% of the vote. I think they realised how foolish they were being when we all piled in.

  98. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Speaking of bets on the referendum, it seems Ladbrokes have stopped taking bets on YES getting over 35% of the vote. I think they realised how foolish they were being when we all piled in.”

    What? When was that a thing and why didn’t anyone tell me?

  99. faltdubh says:

    Sorry, Rev, I’m feeling like you too.
    I was planning on going in on it.
     
    5/6 it was too! 🙁

  100. Holebender says:

    Come off it Rev! It has been discussed several times below the lineI under some of your articles. I remember you asked me something about it last week!

  101. Colin Dunn says:

    @ Training Day? ?”Have passed the link to your site on to others, there’s a good set of materials there.”

    That’s some A4 and A5 printable flyers now available on my http://www.indyposterboy.info site.

    See: http://www.indyposterboy.info/scottish-independence-flyers.asp

    Includes one based on the Yes campaign’s ‘Imagine the debate in reverse’ idea, and one which provides links to key Scottish nerws and blog sites – including Wings of course 😉

    Tried to keep them short and punchy, as too much info can be a turn-off. Please print them out, spread them around, folks, and pass the link along.

  102. john king says:

    I wonder how much murphys getting paid to neck a can of Irn Bru on camera, mind you it’ll be his only source of income now. 🙂

  103. john king says:

    Rev Stu Campbell says
    “What? When was that a thing and why didn’t anyone tell me?”

    What?
    we thought you knew.



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