Where the money is
Disclaimer first: as we always say in situations like this, BOOKMAKERS’ ODDS ARE NOT PREDICTIONS. They’re based in significant part on the level of wagers placed, which means that you could affect the odds simply by making a large bet, which of course wouldn’t actually change the likelihood of a particular candidate winning.
So with that proviso, we present the following information purely for interest.
Below are the current best available odds for 58 of the 59 Scottish seats, provided by OddsChecker. (We have no idea why Linlithgow & East Falkirk isn’t there.) By “best” odds we mean best from a gambler’s perspective – the HIGHEST price you can get against a party winning, ie the maximum profit you could make.
(For example, several bookies have the SNP at an absurd 1/200 in Airdrie & Shotts, which would mean you’d have to bet £200 to make £1 profit if they won. But the 1/41 listed is a better bet, because you’d only have to bet £41 to get your £1 profit. Click on the individual seat links from the OddsChecker link for the full range of prices.)
The seats break down like this:
SNP FAVOURITES TO WIN: 48 seats (incl. Linlithgow & East Falkirk)
All seats not listed below
CONSERVATIVES: 6 seats
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Dumfries and Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
East Renfrewshire
Perth & North Perthshire
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
LIB DEMS: 4 seats
East Dunbartonshire
Edinburgh West
North East Fife
Orkney & Shetland
LABOUR: 1 seat
Edinburgh South
You can do with this information as you will, or not if you’re not the gambling sort. But if you scan down the list there are a few places where you might think there could be a couple of quid to be made out of what appear to be rather generous odds.
(The Tories really fancy their chances of taking Perth & North Perthshire, for example, but you’d more than double your money if Pete Wishart does manage to successfully defend his near-10,000 majority. And if you wanted our personal tip, the Tories and SNP are both very temptingly priced in Edinburgh South.)
It will, as ever, be interesting to see where the bookies got it right and wrong. And if the above does somehow turn out to be the actual election result, we suspect all the parties would be pretty happy.
It appears from Mr Murray that the electoral pact between unionists is collapsing already. Apparently Mr Murray believed the Tories would support him in Edinburgh then found out they had leafleted the whole area saying Only the Tories could stop the SNP.
Oh dear.
Only Nicola will be lambasted, regardless of actual result or reality.
Ruh will be aglow for sure…and even more so if Mundell lost and she became McTory #1
Cant way to hear Kez spin it somehow…im sure your pal Duncan is working on his creative interpretations already!
The only solid prediction that I am willing to make is that, if Labour lose Edinburgh South, Hothersall will still self-describe as ‘wins election’ on Twitter.
If Labour end up as the forth force will BBC Scotland give their sole MP similar balanced coverage as they currently give to the Greens at Holyrood? That is almost zilch.
That should read fourth force
Well I am going to say it at the risk of upsetting the crowd. If the SNP lose Moray and Perth & North Perth with the majorities they have at the moment then it will be down to 2 factors – the PV vote and people who have settled here that have nothing but ill will towards us natives and are a burden on our local services.
I was the only native in the GPs surgery today and at 57 easily the youngest. Oh and they weren’t East Europeans either. I wonder how those braying Tory Yoons that I had to listen to today will feel about having their Pensions cut and losing their Winter Fuel Payments if the Tories win GE. It is an absolutely vile day here today. It is wet, cold and utterly miserable. The visit to the GP didn’t do anything to improve my mood.
One Yes voter in me and 5 effin Tory settlers SNP Bad braindeid New bags. Grrrrrr!
The bookies have been wrong on a number of times, I hope they are wrong again on quite a number of “seats”.
Hope your research is wrong about Perth and North Perthshire. Canvas returns in large city ward has SNP higher than 2 weeks ago by a canvas of 160 voters from Labour back to SNP last week by a local activist.
It would be astounding for Pete to lose with such a big majority
i cant figure out how this electoral pact would ever work , and it baffles me how a labour voter could ever think of voting for the most insidious right wing rabid hateful tory government in our lifetime , Yesterday a list of fully 40 failures of this government was posted here , if people still disregard everything thats in front of their eyes they really should start to question their own personal moral compass and their own values .
Call yourselves Scots ? i really would question that .
The Labour Party has closed the gap on T. May’s Tories in England. Mainly because people there have discovered that Corbyn sounds human and vaguely likeable. Of course Corbyn isn’t terribly interested in Scotland. Ian Murray, on the other hand, does not like Corbyn and resigned from his Shadow Cabinet. He likes Lord Alistair Darling better. Hmmmm. What a tangled web they weave…
I don’t think there are signs of a LibDem resurgence which would give them those extra three seats.
Those particular odds must be on the basis of some LibDem punters feeling lucky and placing big bets.
Labour losing Edinburgh South to the SNP would be excellent.
Labour losing Edinburgh South to the Tories would be a wake up call for those believing in ‘cosy cooperation Unionism’.
The Tories will take some seats, but Pete Wishart losing would be a big loss for Perthshire and Scotland.
6 seats. Hmm a clear victory for the Tories then.
Thing is Ian, it’s the SNP who will mitigate and they won’t lose their winter fuel payments in Scotland nor likely will the ‘social care’ bill be fully acted in Scotland either, I’m aware of the effects this will have on Scottish government’s cash, but is this not exactly what they aim for, to spike the SNP’s popularity by having them mitigate everything the Tories throw at us?
Those voting Tory in Scotland have to be the most ignorant bunch on the planet, wish they’d go live where they clearly feel more at home, then they can experience the full impact of what’s coming down the road with their chosen party’s policies.
East Dunbartonshire…mmm . I can’t see where the Lib vote will come from. I think this will stay SNP. We will win Shetland as well. So Libs 2 max.
Bob Mack says:
6 June, 2017 at 2:58 pm
It appears from Mr Murray that the electoral pact between unionists is collapsing already. Apparently Mr Murray believed the Tories would support him in Edinburgh then found out they had leafleted the whole area saying Only the Tories could stop the SNP.
Oh dear.
Oh, dear, indeed. The phrase “you’ve made your own midden, now lie in it comes to mind”.
Mind you, he will still be too thick to realise the Tories have played him and all the other SLAB Better Together flag wavers like fiddles.
I just don’t get how Labour could ever be happy with a single seat in Scotland; yet, somehow, hanging on to what they’ve got here would probably seem like a reasonable tonic.
Scandalous.
Unfortunate for those rural areas as Brexit is going to hit them hardest, though as Tory areas the Westminster Tories will help them, for a while.
Wonder if all the leaders would cash in/out(not a gambler)if they were offered these results now,
think I would take it,
though will be pissed if the folk of Orkney and Shetland vote for that proven liar,
if they do vote for him it will be an ignominious day for these once proud islands.
Just for interest sake, and is related this time folks 😉 , here is a wee video of the Hustings held in Pebbles on June 1st. All four candidates were present of which two were “targeted” by, in some cases sustained, heckling from the floor. 😀
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1W1mMnDzNHI
The leading horsey would look good with a black outline.
“Winning by 10 miles and 1 furlang.. it’s the SNP”
Hopefully, the going is good-to-firm.
HOLD & GAIN.
‘W(h)inny!’
Lib Dems have flooded East Dunbartonshire with Bummf but I don’t think the bookies have got this one right
We only were told today it was the re emergence of Jo Swinson who was never really popular anyway (careerist coat tail hanger)
although I knew it was her but I think John Nicolson will do it again
I hope so anyway
Living in Edin South I’m hopeful the Tories are over-confident with their “surge” nonsense and don’t tactically vote this time. We all know that’s what went on in 2015 (in conjunction with the hatchet job on Neil Hay).
Saying that, the huge “I’m voting Murray” posters in our area are far more widespread than last time. Neighbours who never talk about politics at all have plastered their bay windows with them. I’ve seen just ONE with Tory posters. Wife says “that’ll be your shy Tories” – hope this isn’t the same as the “silent majority” of 3 years ago.
My hope/expectation is that the Unionist vote will be split in most places and the SNP can sail through. The other side of that coin is that in England UKIP won’t be the vehicle of anti-Tory/anti-Govt protest it was in 2015, which may give English Labour a chance there.
There are a lot of Labour posters up in Edinburgh South (Marchmont) at the moment (not many SNP) although it’s hard to say whether that support seeps into less affluent areas such as the Inch or more affluent areas such as Morningside, where I’m sure the Tories now fancy their chances (and won’t be lending their vote to Mr Murray).
Even despite Stu’s article I reckon quite a few people won’t be collecting on their anti-SNP bets come Friday…
Sadly, from what I hear, Labour are a very good shout at 18/1 for Lanark and Hamilton East. Tories seem to fancy their chances but their vote has been historically low, despite the area including the Clydesdale farming community. It’s apparently too close to call. Angela Crawley is one of the more anonymous MPs, certainly when compared to her fellow Hamilton MP Margaret Ferrier. I can’t recall ever hearing Angela speak in the Commons while I’ve heard Margaret many times. She’s also statistically the hardest working Scot at WM in terms of contributions to debates and questions. Her four page leaflet came through the door last night and very impressive it is too.
In case anyone went straight to the bookies current odds and missed the mouse-over…
Did you?
“Click for a slightly more accurate scale of likely seat outcomes.”
https://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/gehorsesscale.jpg
That’s where the money is.
Yee-ha!
O/T … Maybe.
Just to add that there’s a poll on the Herald. The SNP are on 70%, Tories on 19% and Labour on 7%. Tom Gordon must be wishing that they hadn’t bothered to run it at all, LOL. Hell mend him.
My wife who commutes through there says that the posters and boards along the roads of North and East Fife are much less FibDem than in the past. With more SNP, more Labour and even a few Tory signs.
Which says that the odds on a FibDem recovery of the seat do not look as strong as listed.
I’m also suspicious as to the different second places in Dundee East and West. I suspect some rich Tories skewing the numbers in Dundee West.
Iain More. You are tarring us all with the same brush. I appreciate your own patriotism but not at the expense that your ‘newbys’ are not so, and what is worse, accusing us all of being Tories. I/we may not have been born in your country or speak with the same dialect, but we are not necessarily 100% of another country either. Personally, I worked hard myself to gain an SNP M.P. and have done so again, and similarly for independence in 2014, and continually ever since. Okay, it’s a dreich day here in Fife as well and I am stuck in my house because of it but I am not letting it get in the way of my support for Scotland and ALL those who permanently reside here.
I’m still saying that Michelle O’Neill and Sinn Fein are going to be the deal maker/breaker.
Which could really make things interesting.
You heard it here first folks.
Move over Dixie Chicks.
Are you ready for the Indie Chicks.
OT just watched Malcolm Rifkind live on BBC. Was he drunk or on drugs?
Some advice to those contemplating voting tory , go out get a gun and one bullet now blow your brains out , cut out the middleman , you know it makes sense ,save yourself all the pain of the dire existance you will endure under another tory government .
Has anyone seen the Wings mention on a Yes bar video with a smug Tory uploaded today deeply hidden on the BBC perhaps so the can claim non Bias even though you won’t see it listed on any of their main pages
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-40175608
Has anyone seen the Wings mention on a Yes bar video with a smug Tory uploaded today deeply hidden on the BBC perhaps so the can claim non Bias even though you won’t see it listed on any of their main pages
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-40175608
Arbroath1320 – Thanks for that. A good watch. Mairi McAllan looks like a future SNP star. I hope the vote is representative of that audience. That Lib Dem guy would give some of the UKIP zoomers a run for their money. Loved Mairi’s puffed cheeks at his mad point about Trident!
awayanbileyerheed:
Smug patronising wee arrogant 19 year old tells an adult to go and see the motherland!
Wow, if it holds at 48, it would an incredible achievement. Looks rock solid where I am, no one has changed their mind’s at all, in 2 years.
It will just mean actual elected tory Scottish MP’s endlessly waffling for the UK in Pacific Quay studios and London with all the crew in there. Ligger Neil will no doubt have “Scottish” MP’s back on all his BBC Politics shows for example, and who can complain about it all.
Even so, why do I want Bliar Mactenbellies to win? It would fcuking hilarious to watch that Blairite dross in the Commons and not Sir Ian Murray OBE, VC, PhD, FBI:D
Anything can happen in that final furlang.
The leading horse always gets the best clear ground. But ye never know.. the trailing riders may stumble and fall back even further yet.
Mind you, they’d probably turn their final straight into a ‘steeplechase’, being interested as they are in putting up ‘fences’ and such-like.
Some tired and trailing horses have been known to ‘pull-up’ at big fences…
You’d probably get pretty good odds on anything from 49 to 59 WIN seats for the SNP too.
Always ever optimistic.
It’s the final push.
Thanks Rev. on this basis it is clear that the Conservatives will win the election and Ruth will find herself in the FM’s seat on Monday. Oh, hang on …
On a slightly more serious note, I would think SNP can hold on to 45-50 seats depending on turnout, and whether Labour swing (to Tory) voters think their candidates might have a chance based on the UK wide performance in the polls and ‘stay home’. It will be a long night!
Teresa May has visited Edinburgh twice and studiously avoided Ed South – a not so stealthy nudge towards tactical voting?
awayanbileyerheed
I know its just another beeb ligger in Scotland but its a bit scary to hear end his thing in the YES Bar with, “somebody here will be surprised by the General election result, June 8.”
WTF is that supposed to mean? Nothing probably. Or polling really is virtually worthless today.
In the UK, the Tories are the political wing of the neo-liberal British Establishment. This elite group are part of a global Alliance of other national turbo-wealthy élites. The members of these neo-liberal Establishment groups believe in globalisation as the best way to enhance and protect their wealth, power, influence and lifestyle.
It appears that in response to Brexit, the élites of the British Establishment have decided to tie up with the American élites, since their European neo-liberal connections are not going to be as strong with the UK out of the EU. Since Brexit, the Tories have effectively already turned away from Europe and as such, have no motivation to engage in any meaningful negotiations with the EU. Hence the near complete absence of preparation by Westminster.
Which brings us to Scotland, in which both the UK and the US have a very serious interest because of the nuclear submarine base at Faslane, Scotland’s strategic location relative to Russia’s Northern Fleet, and oil. Lots and lots of oil.
This is the background to this General Election and to the forthcoming EU negotiations, both side shows, neither of which is as important to the global neo-liberal elites as Scotland remaining under English control is.
So while all the focus here in the UK is on GE17, and, soon, on the Brexit negotiations, the Global Alliance of Neo-liberal Establishment groups are more than content with their new arrangement between the UK and the USA.
Now let’s get on with the game.
West Aberdeen and Kincardine 3/10. Disgrace to Scotland.
Out on the streets it is not looking great for us.
We really really need every vote for an independence party
I realise that everyone on here will go and vote, but if you know friends, family, neighbours etc who vote for indy parties, give em a wee nudge to ensure they go vote.
Kestral said …
“Out on the streets its not looking great for us”
Presumably you are a unionist then, or just a rocket…
The biggest lie from the ref was this ‘union of nations’ idea. We are NOT a union of nations, never have been, and never will be. We are a union of competitors.
@geeo
kestral doesn’t post often but played a huge role in getting out the Wee Blue Books and is known to the Rev. He/she is not an Unionist that’s for sure.
@geeo
That wasn’t intended as a dig.
Not everyone who reads Wings would know this as kestrals posts were so few and you would have to be have reading at the time of the WBB distribution to have known.
Cactus
A Gif that keeps on Giffing.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/eg22u7wm9x97mi3/threehorsebig.gif?dl=0
kestrel – it would help if you said where those streets were. There will be plenty of streets where the news is very encouraging.
AYE @IainMore 3:12 pm
“I was the only native in the GPs surgery today and at 57 easily the youngest. Oh and they weren’t East Europeans either.”
Over 500,000 people from rUK have settled in Scotland,
most of them pro-unionists, in such places as
the border country, military bases, Edinburgh, St Andrews et al.
A study of almost 5000 people was done by
Ailsa Henderson and James Mitchell, University of Edinburgh
which suggested people born in Scotland voted 53% to 47%
in favour of independence.
Here are their findings :-
http://tinyurl.com/zb9u2bk
or
http://centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Scottish%20Referendum%20Study%2027%20March%202015.pdf
Iain More@3.12
Its becoming the same across the Highlands.(although not as bad as Moe-ray especially Losseeemaff and Eljin)
Some of the new “settlers” have no idea or care what the SNP do daily to try and help them, they just bring their Rule Britannia mentality with them.
Once the heating allowance has been stopped along with the rest of the cuts the “submarine” brings in, they will probably move dan saf again, leaving Scotland to starve.
I have to say most of the new settlers I have had the pleasure to converse with have been pretty open minded, regarding how Scotland is run, a lot of decent folk.
@Gary45%
The Winter Fuel Payment and Cold weather payment are now devolved to the Scottish Government.
There will be no cuts here I would hope but if Westminster keep slashing our budget then something has to give.
http://www.gov.scot/Topics/People/fairerscotland/Social-Security/Powers/Devolved-benefts
@Alan Magnus-Bennett
My mither was a white settler Alan and she will be birlinn in her grave at the 5 Tory voting ones I ran into today in the GP surgery.
It is unfortunately the minority who actually give a toss for Scotland. As for them helping themselves to SNHS services well they have all had irony bypasses because that is something else the Tories would destroy if they got the chance.
Thepnr,
“kestral doesn’t post often but played a huge role in getting out the Wee Blue Books and is known to the Rev. He/she is not an Unionist that’s for sure.”
But you are sure I am a Tory, right?
Thepnr,
“States the biggest fool ever to post on Wings. Covert Tory.”
Happy to be corrected re Kestral.
Also happy to humbly apologise as well.
Sorry Kestral for my ever so 2 footed dive in.
geeo – no offense will be taken @ ur comment as you don’t know me,
but to give you an idea I leafleted for Jim Sillars in 1988, so been at this a wee while.
Maybe it’s just me who sees us losing any seats as a backwards slide beginning, we are seeing some of our cat 2-3 deciding not to vote for us
I believe we are sitting at 42% of the vote
Don’t get me wrong, we are still strong, just not as strong as we were, it is looking decidedly dodgy in a few areas, every seat we lose will be brought to bear 100 times over to make the case against us getting another vote on independence.
you know that is exactly how the press will play it
not a problem honey, thanks for the apology, no offense was taken
I think Angus Robertson at 4/5 is a great bet, even with tactical voting the tories would struggle to get enough votes as long as we get the vote out. The country fields are full of Dougie “expenses” Ross posters, but go into towns and it’s all Angus Robertson.
I’ve been having interesting conversations with friends in – and regarding – marginal seats. Mostly Labour voters – Marxist and the likes – who are seeing the bigger picture unfold. Not in terms of independence, but of stopping the Tories. They like Corbyn, mostly, and see the SNP as a better match with him than Scottish Labour.
Can you imagine the impotent rage if the SNP help Corbyn to become PM?
I agree that Northern Ireland may well be a very interesting place to be come Friday.
Betting shop figures could be a fairly accurate indicator; there’s punters’ money at stake.
also anyone being getting hit with 90% conservative adverts on youtube?
it says on youtube about their advertising
Plus, you only pay when someone engages with your video ad. If they skip it before 30 seconds (or the end), you don’t pay a penny.
So are the conservatives bidding £15.00 a click to flood the market as most people only watch the 5 seconds and skip
your actually fecking forced to watch it and have no choice for those 5 seconds
billions of views , minimum money
the adverts are pretty raw with select statement of 3 seconds by JC being used to the most negative effect against labour – that 5 second view is all they need to ram home message
and I see even Snapchat and Candy Crush are being used as well
Got to say, considering we do not allow uncontrolled tv or radio usage, then this election is showing some very dirty tactics on social media.
ps newspapers are asking for screen shots, recordings and for people to keep records if they can
I totally back Kestral on this.
We are holding strong in many places but in those seats which are close, EVERY vote will count.
The Tories have flung huge amounts of money at this election and targeted specific seats. If you live in one of those targeted seats please contact your local office to ask if they need your help on Thursday.
There are new rules about attending the count which require you to fill in a form and collect your permit from the local council with ID before 4pm tomorrow .
Not every polling station may have tellers on duty all day yet. Can you do a couple of hours?
Can you help to put an SNP ‘A’ board up outside your local polling station on your way to work in the morning?
Can you provide transport to help voters to get to the polling station?
There will be other jobs needing done – please help to get the vote out.
———————–
Managed to catch the debate – thought Nicola was terrific again; Kezia really dislikes tRuthless and at least we had some reserved matters discussed.
tRuthless is really on the back foot talking about WM policies.
Thought the audience were excellent – even had some Scottish voices!
Well done Mr. Ponsonby and STV!
@Meg merrilees
thanks Meg, we are only managing to staff 10 polling stations out of 36 and then only part time
everyone else will be driving around all day chapping doors to try to get the vote out
So yes please please do contact your local office if you can help out
Might see if I can now go get catch up tv to work for the debate although I should really sleep as the 7am Thursday to 5am Friday shift is coming up
But counts are amazing to go to, I always stop and think(after having done the sampling etc of course), this is democracy happening all around me here, the actual physical embodiment of democracy, gives me goosebumps, pride and a little sadness for those who do not have that right.
Regarding tory adverts; I’ve noticed them on facebook (recommended pages or whatever) but haven’t noticed them on youtube. Haven’t been signed in to it for ages, and I have an ad-blocker.
FREE FINANCIAL ADVICE – don’t back UKIP in Inverclyde, they ain’t standing…
Re Bookmakers. The clue is in the name.
They don’t give a fig who wins (generally), as they work to a mathematical concept called the over-round.
They scoop, whoever wins.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookmaking
@Derek
I believe they are flooding with non targeted ads due to the fact that they are under investigation for using big data companies to provide targeting during brexit –
targeting = local campaign spend
flooding = party spend
if they are flooding, then they will have a very high bid on them to get them to show everywhere, ie like £8.00 – £15.00 per click
Does anyone know if they are pay per click?
Aweright Chick McGregor ~
“It’s a two horse race.. Labour or Tory for second place”. 🙂
The SNP are the winning ticket!
Vote Scottish.
Aweright Derek ~
Take it you’re a fan of GTA5…
‘Impotent rage’ hehe…
Cross-referencing to Jockanese Wind Talker’s:
https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-davidson-boys/#comment-2272037
Aweright.
There has been no sign of the Tories spending money or time in my part of Dumfries and Galloway. A couple of leaflets through the door, by post, and not a glimmer of a canvasser. I believe they have signs all along the A75 Euro route so maybe that’s where all their money went in this region. From what I’ve heard about feedback round the doors there is a favourable response the sitting SNP candidate. Even the Tory faithful aren’t happy with the choice of a multi-millionaire businessman, who lives outwith the region, as their candidate. I’m told that at a recent hustings he described disabled children as “poor unfortunates” and was quite upset when people were not pleased at this. Didn’t think he had said anything wrong and was shocked that people were being abusive to him. If he can’t take abuse he maybe shouldn’t be standing as an MP. I sincerely hope the bookies are wrong about D&G. Never have we had a better MP than the SNPs Richard Arkless.
Iain More
3.12
Its the same all over. I feel like a stranger in my own country.
AYE @IainMore 3:12 pm
“I was the only native in the GPs surgery today and at 57 easily the youngest. Oh and they weren’t East Europeans either.”
Over 500,000 people from rUK have settled in Scotland,
most of them pro-unionists, in such places as
the border country, military bases, Edinburgh, St Andrews etc.
A study of almost 5000 people was done by
Ailsa Henderson and James Mitchell, University of Edinburgh
which suggested people born in Scotland voted 53% to 47%
in favour of independence.
Here are their findings :-
http://tinyurl.com/zb9u2bk
@Cactus
No, never played it! It’s just a nicely descriptive phrase.
Afternoon Derek ~
Aye, you called it nicely, spot on.
‘Impotent Rage’ is a TV character from the worldwide computer game GTAV (Grand Theft Auto 5). Also, the game series was founded in Dundee. Made in Scotland.
If you’re interested, I put a link up to the cartoon on the next article, at four minutes past this morning.
Cheers for the timely inspiration.
http://gta.wikia.com/wiki/Impotent_Rage
Although the character of Impotent Rage is intended to be left-wing and liberal, there be many a message in the video.
as stu so often says
told yah
yet it gives me no pleasure to say it, only pain as I watched Alex Salmond hand over his seat to a TORY
so pray tell me, did any of you actually get on board with my ask……
do any of you know wish you had?
know = now