The UK Politics 2016 FAQ
There’s a lot going on at the moment, readers, and an awful lot of conflicting analysis and commentary to confuse people trying to make sense of it.
Luckily, as ever, Wings Over Scotland is here to cut through the bull and give you the straight answers to the burning questions of the day.
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Q: WILL BRITAIN ACTUALLY LEAVE THE EU?
A: Nobody knows.
All manner of legal and political challenges are being set up in the wake of the vote, which is technically only an “advisory” one that the government doesn’t have to obey.
All the referendum really did was ask the people of the UK their opinion. So far as the law is concerned the government doesn’t have to do anything about that opinion. A majority of people have wanted the death penalty reinstated ever since it was abolished 50-odd years ago, but it hasn’t been.
The most likely next Prime Minister is someone who actually campaigned on the Remain side, but has categorically promised to enact Brexit anyway. Readers can judge for themselves what a categorical promise from a politician is worth these days.
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Q: WILL THERE BE A SECOND EU REFERENDUM?
A: Nobody knows.
A second vote in some form can’t be discounted. One of the legal challenges might succeed, or the government might simply choose not to carry out the result (as noted above), or it might take the route of conducting exit negotiations with the EU, then putting the final agreement to a vote as a sort of emergency compromise.
The difficulty with that plan is that negotiations can’t be completed (or indeed begun) until Article 50 is invoked, and once Article 50 is invoked the process of leaving is supposed to be irreversible. But at the moment nobody will say when they actually plan to invoke Article 50, so the whole thing is shrouded in uncertainty.
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Q: WHO WILL BE THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER?
A: Nobody knows.
Theresa May is the front runner in the Tory leadership race by a distance, but front runners in Tory leadership races have a habit of not winning.
In 1990 Margaret Thatcher won the first round by a 14-point margin, but then dropped out and John Major became leader. In 1997 Kenneth Clarke led after the first ballot, but was eventually beaten by William Hague. In 2001 Michael Portillo was the initial “victor”, only to be overtaken in the third Parliamentary-party round by Kenneth Clarke, who in turn eventually lost to Iain Duncan Smith once the party membership voted. (Who was deposed in 2003 by Michael Howard, without a contest.) And in 2005 it was David Davis who came out on top in the first round of voting, but David Cameron who eventually triumphed.
The Tories are already engaging in Machiavellian tactical-voting schemes to try to hamper/assist various candidates. While May is a hot favourite this time and has a bigger lead than most of her predecessors, nothing is guaranteed.
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Q: WILL THERE BE A GENERAL ELECTION BEFORE 2020?
A: Nobody knows.
Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, all UK governments are supposed to remain in office for a full five-year term. However, there are mechanisms by which that stipulation can be over-ruled in extreme circumstances. Alternatively, the law could simply be repealed.
Exercising the escape clauses in the FTPA would require the new government of Theresa May (or May not) to take the highly unusual step of calling/supporting a vote of no confidence in itself. It’s difficult to see what motivation a Conservative government with an absolute majority would have for doing so, especially as it would only stand to win one extra year in power.
On the other hand, the Labour Party is in such spectacular disarray that the Tories might feel there was an opportunity to crush it while it was weak and put themselves in a stronger position. But in the current febrile and unpredictable political atmosphere, that would be a big risk for a small potential gain. And it would also risk making Labour stronger by getting rid of what’s widely considered to be an unelectable leader.
If you were to really push us, we’d say no, there won’t be an early election. But then, if you’d pushed us a fortnight ago we’d have said Remain would win the referendum, so don’t be taking our word for anything.
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Q: WILL THERE BE A LABOUR LEADERSHIP CONTEST?
A: Nobody knows.
Earlier this week, Angela Eagle sternly threatened Jeremy Corbyn that if he didn’t resign she’d jolly well threaten him again. The former shadow cabinet minister, who’d been expected to formally challenge Corbyn for the leadership some days before, finally came out and semi-firmly said that she really honestly definitely would trigger a contest “soon” if he continued to resist pressure from the Parliamentary party.
But “soon” is a very flexible word, and it would surely be an act of political suicide in the wake of the Chilcot Report for any Labour MP who voted for the war in Iraq to take on Corbyn, who opposed it from the beginning.
But even if Eagle is a dead duck, that doesn’t mean nobody could step forward. MPs who weren’t elected until well after the decision to overthrow Saddam Hussein might finally come out of the shadows, such as Sir Keir Starmer or Dan Jarvis, who’ve only sat in the Commons since 2015 and 2011 respectively.
Neither of the two men put himself up for leadership previously, citing inexperience, but with all Iraq-tainted MPs out of play the current circumstances might force them to change their minds to try to save the party. It’s simply impossible to say.
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Q: WILL THE LABOUR PARTY SPLIT?
A: Nobody knows.
At this precise moment in time it seems inconceivable that the party can possibly hold together. 75% of its MPs have said they have no confidence in their own leader, yet that leader seems certain to either remain in place unchallenged for the forseeable future, or win any election.
A split, conducted as quickly and amicably as possible to protect the chances of future co-operation, seems the only sustainable way forward, yet the “rebel” MPs seem determined to dig their heels in and spend the next four years systematically destroying the party in an insane fight to the death against its own membership, which has surged to levels not seen for decades.
(This, curiously, is seen as proof of the leader’s unpopularity with the electorate.)
At the moment, an immovable object is meeting another immovable object. Neither shows any sign of yielding. It seems like something has to give, but it also seems that the party is locked in a total stalemate. The outcome simply can’t be foreseen.
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Q: WILL THERE BE A SECOND INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM?
A: Nobody knows.
To most people in the Yes movement it certainly feels like another indyref is now only a matter of time. Polls are now consistently in favour, albeit still quite narrowly, and the soundings from Westminster – in so far as anything can be relied upon these days – are that the UK government would not attempt to block one.
(The Scottish Conservatives have promised to not oppose one, then oppose one with every last fibre of their being, and then not oppose one but not support it either. As there’s at least theoretically a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, their votes would be irrelevant anyway so it doesn’t actually matter what they think, say or do.)
Yet the practicalities are almost infinitely complex. The EU is sending mixed messages. The First Minister needs to be seen to exhaust all other possibilities for securing Scotland’s position before calling for a second plebiscite, yet by far the most sensible course seems to be for Scotland to express its desire for independence while the UK is still in the EU, so that Scotland can simply “inherit” the UK’s membership rather than having to be ejected then apply to join as a brand-new nation.
Nicola Sturgeon has to act quickly and strike while the iron is hot, while also playing a waiting game. Those two aims are self-evidently incompatible. Once Brexit is a fait accompli, the arguments currently putting Yes in the lead change substantively. Nothing is straightforward.
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If anyone’s got anything else they’d like us to clear up authoritatively and definitively, feel free to ask. We’re here to help.
That’s a definite maybe about all of that then ……… mibees aye or mibees naw as the man once said …….
As Alun Davies sign indicates “We just don’t know”
It’s all these known unknowns
It all reminds me of this:-
“If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?
A) 25%
B) 50%
C) 60%
D) 25%
The biggest issue for independence depends on whether the UK can negotiate Norwegian style membership of the EEA which retains freedom of movement and trade.
Alright then.
Will Tony Blair end up on trial at the Hague, or even in Scotland?
Will John McTurpid ever make a political prediction that becomes true?
Regarding your last point on a second Scottish referendum Stu, to be fair to Nicola, as you said above the UK government has not invoked article 50. I can’t see any referendum being won if the UK still hasn’t committed to leaving the EU – it certainly leaves out the idea of “successor state” for Scotland.
I think we’ll see a decision on a Scottish referendum once Article 50 has been invoked.
Hey, you know what?
I haven’t got a scooby either. It’s a crazy, mixed up world. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Regarding EEA/EFTA – there are only what, 16M people altogether in those countries and a new one of 60M (or less) would seriously unbalance their arrangements. They are not keen for the rUK to join them.
For Scotland everything hinges on when (I’m not going to contemplate ‘if’) Article 50 is triggered. That’s the starting gun for indyref2.
I am sure there are rabid neo-liberals in the Tory party seriously thinking about what money can be made by ditching all of those inconvenient EU protections and safeguards for people and the environment that prevent them from making even more money. So there will be serious pressure for Brexit to really happen.
At least the EU is not compromising on pre-Article 50 negotiations: they have their own priorities to consider.
If anyone’s got anything else they’d like us to clear up authoritatively and definitively, feel free to ask. We’re here to help
Oooops! Can of worms! I feel a Fun Friday coming on!
A fine analysis of ‘Nobody knows anything.’
What we do know is, it’s chaos and turmoil out there.
My own observations here: link to wp.me
Onwards says:
“The biggest issue for independence depends on whether the UK can negotiate Norwegian style membership of the EEA which retains freedom of movement and trade.”
Yes. I think that is the biggest/most immediate.
However, that still leaves Scotland at the mercy of an ultra right WM and tensions will arise.
Also, that won’t appease UKIP and hardcore leavers. It might lead to a rise in UKIP support in England. Scary.
I think a Norway solution might just delay Indy. WM and the right wing aren’t going to disappear.
Other questions …
May for PM. Corbyn looks as though he would win another membership vote so if MPs are really so unhappy, they will split away. IndyRef? When, not If. Then again, I could be completely wrong!
How can two immovable objects meet?
They grew there.
All these questions!
Brilliant summing up of where we are.
Ma wee brains hurting… 🙁
Will the LibDems rise phoenix-like from the grave and surge to victory in the next GE in a coalition with UKIP, after traditional Labour voters who deserted Labour for the Tories in 2015 in order to get the EU referendum realise that they don’t want to return to Labour anyway?
I know, but it’s no more fantastic than believing that Gove has any hope against a Barclays banker.
So true Rev its all a total craps shoot and you would have more chance trying to predict the weather.
All we can do is be patient and see which way the cards unfold,though i do think the indy movement has a couple of aces up its sleeve.
As for brexit i do think it will happen but not because politicians want it or dont want it but because if they try and stop it they might find London on fire again,the brexit guys are not like the remain guys who will peacefully protest,nope the brexit guys are the burn the gaff down type mob.
I predict a riot if they do not get their way plus i think the EU are totally fed up with this island and its politics off shhh dont talk about Europe unless its bad and can you blame them when you see the deadbeats(there are exceptions)we send to the EU parliament.
One thing is certain though none of them have ever faced anything like this before and it would seem from online that a lot of English people are starting to wake up to the reality of their political parties and tame media,the JC thing has kicked that door down,the question is will they act or will they do their usual moan about it for years then vote in another complete idiot as PM from the choice red or blue establishment.
Lets not wait about to find out yea 😉
Surely there’s a case for rUk to invade Scotland, the Scots definately have weapons of mass destruction, they definately have oil, they have constantly killed the dreams of both their football and rugby people and nowadays there’s no need for any type of UN mandate. Just invade Scotland, call it operation NICALEX and liberate the people…..(make sure the soldiers are correctly equipped for a Scottish winter though….it’s feckin cold up here)
Corbyn has gone out of his way to be inclusive and preserve the Labour party. Sooner or later, however, the boil will have to be lanced if the party is to return to its working class roots. The Blairites bottled a leadership challenge and are currently lying low during Chilcot. Corbyn is in a stronger position now, but he really has to deal with the Blairites effectivley.
How can he do this?
Stu wrote: “A majority of people have wanted the death penalty reinstated ever since it was abolished 50-odd years ago, but it hasn’t been.”
What are your sources for that claim? I ask in all sincerity because i’ve been pro death penalty most of my life until the past several years where my opinions have changed considerably.
I was under the impression that current public opinion was around 50/50 and depending on the circumstances of the crime whether they supported it or not.
Other than that, thanks for another good article of the standard we have become accustomed to here on WOS!
What are the chances of the other Scottish parties coming out in favour of independence?
If the view of the Scottish Tories is irrelevant why to you repeatedly lie about them having changed it. Why not just tell the truth and argue your point. You’re rapidly turning into that which you purport to despise.
“Leadsom says she believes same sex love is as valid as heterosexual love. But she was not happy with the way the legislation was framed, so she voted both for and against,”
Someone give this woman a hedge fund to manage.
In the months prior to the EU Referendum, David Cameron had a series of talks with various European leaders and European officials to negotiate a deal with Europe which would, he thought, satisfy the sceptics in the country as a whole and in particular the divisions in the Tory Party.
He then took the decision to put the negotiated deal to the country in a Referendum. The LEAVE side won.
All that needs to be done now is invoke Article 50 and start the exit negotiations.
In other words, the Europeans are not interested in any more negotiations, they’ve already been done.
The damage has been done and now it’s up to Scotland to get out of the s***pot before they drag us down as well.
The Europeans know exactly what’s happening, which is why they say “No Art.50, no negotiations”.
Not sure if many people noticed, but, on German TV some of the Anchor moderators started wearing tartan ties after the Referendum – sometimes you can send a message in a subtle way. 🙂
Having just heard Leadsom on R4 bullshitting about her CV and unable to remember how many people she was managing, I predict she wont be PM. Or maybe she will…
“Are we in the long grass yet?”
“Nobody knows.”
the eu says , no access to single market
the uk maintains that the uk will have access to single market, eu wont “cut off its nose despite its face” etc
until brexit button is pushed, no negotiations so no clarification of issue
if indyref2 is launched before button is pushed, unionists cant argue that an eu indy scotland wont have free access to uk markets while arguing that a brexit uk wont have any barriers?
also, until brexit button is pressed, no eu uk negotiations for nicola to take part in anyway so the only negotiations taking place at the moment, and in the future, are eu – scotland ones.
our opponents are weaker and divided more now than ever been before and have taken the art of shooting oneself in the foot to new levels of fukcwittery
Will Tony Blair,Gordon Brown and Jack Straw be found guilty of war crimes?
Major: “Will Tony Blair end up on trial at the Hague, or even in Scotland?”
Good question. What job? Gamekeeper for some duke’s grounds?
Some thoughts on Blair and brotherhood here: link to wp.me
It appears nobody knows more than you Rev. A sentiment with which I heartily concur.
@Martin Richmond.
Snigger.
Is it fair to say Jon Snow knows more about what’s going on, far less the future?
Couldn’t believe it when I heard that Corbyn was booed from his own benches yesterday as he ripped Blair a new one. Labour is finished.
It would be fun to give it a go, colours to the mast:
WILL BRITAIN ACTUALLY LEAVE THE EU YES
WILL THERE BE A GENERAL ELECTION BEFORE 2020 NO
WILL THERE BE A LABOUR LEADERSHIP CONTEST YES
WILL THE LABOUR PARTY SPLIT YES
WILL THERE BE A SECOND INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM YES
That was easy… well not really
1. If Scotland gains independence before Brexit do the Scottish EU citizens in Engerland become part of Maggie May’s bargaining chips?
2. Can the EU change the article 50 rule retrospectively to pull the trigger if the UK doesn’t within a specified period?
@ Luigi
While the PLP are riddled with blairites the CLP is not and it must be down to the CLP`s to now deselect them,will they or wont they lol you already know the answer nobody knows.
Though if i was JC i would be removing the whip from as many of the ring leaders as i could so they can no longer stand as a Labour candidate and will need to stand as an independant this will worry them because the i voted Labour because my father did will make it very difficult to win their constituancy seat again unless they are well respected in their communities for doing good work.
I wonder if JC has the balls though to carry this out,i respect him a lot but i really dont think he has the brutal edge he needs to deal with this and is like many old Labour me included until i gave up,who think they can smooth over the right wing of the Labour party,if he tries he will fail to many blairite Lords up to no good.
Galamcennalth/ onwards @ 0117pm . The extreme right wing “cabal” taking control of the
Tory party and thereafter ” Brexit negotiations” are extremely keen to involve the Scotgov in
negotiations solely ” for their own gain” . It is likely that citizenship of EU nationals , and the
negotiating position of Scotgov will be used as a ” lever” to obtain the same deal for RUK . The “apparent” negotiation regarding ” free movement” and ” access to markets” will be of secondary importance to the ” cabal”. The “real issue” will be ” at all costs” for the ” cabal” to maintain the ” integrity of the UK. Make no mistake the ” loss of their Scottish assets” , cannot and will not
be tolerated by this new ” Tory junta” and the leader of the Brexit negotiations Oliver Letwin. They will use any method devious possible , ( I don’t need to provide the details, I am sure you will ” get my drift” ), to prevent Scotland ” escaping their clutches”. This will not be a ” courteous , convivial procedure ” conducted with ” decorum” and could end up in acrimony & bitterness. I hope that any future ” Scotgov” & EU negotiators are extremely ” thick skinned”. This juncture will in all likelihood be when a second referendum may require to be called. Don’t expect this ruling cabal to ” roll over” either,if this all gets to this stage of events.
And what about the investigation into all that Tory overspending in so many constituencies?
@Martin Richmond,
I understand that you are in pain so to avoid any other injury don’t look directly at this question.
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Feel free to answer when you feel better.
Rob says:
7 July, 2016 at 2:22 pm
And what about the investigation into all that Tory overspending in so many constituencies?
link to miniclip.com
Actually this could be fun….
WILL BRITAIN ACTUALLY LEAVE THE EU – Yes they will try to rejoin first and the EU will tell them to feck off…”Imagine a load of Farages moving in next door”
WILL THERE BE A GENERAL ELECTION BEFORE – Yes the brexiters will be so pissed off that they will be a few wee riots and a bit of anarchy and Theresa will lose control, the EU will be too busy laughing to chat with her.
WILL THERE BE A LABOUR LEADERSHIP CONTEST No – The contenders will all have left to join the BFP.
WILL THE LABOUR PARTY SPLIT – No, but there will be lots of defections to join the new party the BFP, it’s the Blairite Fuckwit Party and anyone can join as long as they are more interested in themselves and power than any sort of political progress….it’s not open to anyone with principles, anyone carrying principles will be instantly ejected once they try to show them.
WILL THERE BE A SECOND INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM – Maybe…but there may be an EEE ref first, the English Ejaculation Election could see England leave the UK and it would be premature of the Scottish to spurt first.
That about sums it up……I could be wrong…..but are the Irish ever wrong (in their own heads)
I second that ‘snigger’.
Here’s a question with a definite NO for an answer:
Will Tony Blair be put on trial as a war criminal?
and one with a definite YES:
Should Tony Blair be put on trial as a war criminal?
Otherwise, Stu, you really had me throughout the article as a serious piece of thoughtful analysis (even with the great side-serving of jokes, esp the passage re Angela Eagle, threatening Corbyn and being a dead duck etc…) but then I burst out laughing at the idea of a Labour split,
“…conducted as quickly and amicably as possible to protect the chances of future co-operation…”
Now you’re jus’ takin’ the p***!
To ask whether there will be another independence referendum is to ask the wrong question. There will be another referendum on the matter of Scotland’s constitutional status. It is a matter which simply cannot remain unresolved. And a referendum is, if not the only way to resolve it, then certainly the most obvious and best preferred way.
There was always going to be another independence referendum. The pertinent question is what effect, if any, the result of the EU referendum has on the form and timing of Scotland’s next constitutional plebiscite. The answer to that question, however, remains that nobody knows. Or, to be more precise, nobody knows with any certainty. Any assessment of the impact of the EU referendum outcome on #indyref2 is necessarily hedged around with caveats and conditions. Not least, the question of whether Article 50 will actually be invoked.
In a sense, it doesn’t matter. We know that there will be another referendum. So we have to prepare for it. And there is much that we can do in that regard which is independent of the complexities and uncertainties of UK/EU situation.
What effect does the EU vote and its aftermath have on the independence movement? Who can sensibly dispute that it makes it easier to argue the case for bringing our government home.
North chiel says:
“the negotiating position of Scotgov will be used as a ” lever” to obtain the same deal for RUK .”
You make a very good point here. A plan to make use of and appease Scotland’s requirements AND keep the Union together. There are obviously factions in the EU who would assist with both.
They will try something like this. However, their performance so far has been so incompetent and so England centric, will they pull it off?
“This … could end up in acrimony & bitterness. ”
Tories will be Tories. They won’t ‘get’ Scotland’s thinking and screw it up!
[…] ask whether there will be another independence referendum, as Wings Over Scotland does, is to ask the wrong question. There most definitely will be another referendum on the matter of […]
schrodingers cat @ 2:28
Forgive me if I’m missing your intentions, I find it hugely difficult to read tone online, but I was responding to the Rev’s closing invitation, not seeking to distract. maybe it’s totally irrelevant, maybe it’s a fly in the Tories’ favoured emollient.
Will the Brexit fiasco and the Chilcot report make people question if being ruled by Westminster is the best option?
[…] Wings Over Scotland The UK Politics 2016 FAQ There’s a lot going on at the moment, readers, and an awful lot of conflicting […]
Martin Richmond asked:
If the view of the Scottish Tories is irrelevant why to you repeatedly lie about them having changed it. Why not just tell the truth and argue your point.”
You must have missed it, have a gander!
“(The Scottish Conservatives have promised to not oppose one, then oppose one with every last fibre of their being, and then not oppose one but not support it either. As there’s at least theoretically a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, their votes would be irrelevant anyway so it doesn’t actually matter what they think, say or do.)”
The Parlaimentary Labour Party rebels have lived off the fat of the land for so long that they,re of the opinion that Labour Party supporter’only function is to vote them in every election.If Corbin is ousted the od guard will crawl out of the woodwork vying for more power and privelage.Hang in there Jeremy.I used to vote Labour and your vision of what the Labour party should stand for is more in tune with the ordinary man in the street than any of these pampered pansies.
My head hurts thinking about it and I don’t think even Nostradamus could give me any clues to any of the above.
The only thing I might be sure of is that Nicola Sturgeon will still be FM and the end of this year assuming there isn’t a political assassination.
Well who knows since MI6 etc have been effectively let off the hook by Chilcot.
Was David Cameron’s resignation a dereliction of duty?
Was it gross negligence on the part of David Cameron for Brexit plan failures?
Someone give Nobody a shout, whoever Nobody is, they have all the answers :-0 On a serious note, Never known anything like it, everything is up in the air but indyref2 has to emerge from the madness and if Nicola Sturgeon has anything to do with it it will.
@ Martin Richmond
Sorry, Martin, the link in my previous post to you failed to materialise. Have a look at the undeniable evidence here:
link to wingsoverscotland.com
@
Rob
yup, missed my intension by a country mile
the response to tory fraud investigations will be….
“oh look, a squirrel”
The police do a great job in my opinion, but surely they should have that dangerous looking prisoner under restraint?
?s
ok mystic meg. DOES anything eat wasps ?
n.b. JoLas phisog isn’t empirical evidence !
The UK Gobernment is now so fumble fingered it could do with taking some advice from Nepal on how to upset your main trading partners (China/India)while owing them a small fortune for oil and other essentials.
When things get tricksy the Nepali tradition of electing a prime minister who is at death’s door, as the ‘unity’ candidate, would be useful; just as long as they can have their stroke just before all their country’s loans / debts are called in, ensuring maximum sympathy and stalling the inevitable for another few months at least. Cameron committing sepuk would do as an alternative.
I write some inexpert waffle about the first two questions the other day. First, would it not be electoral suicide for the Tories if they hadn’t started the formal process to leave the EU by the time of the next Westminster election? It was pressure from UKIP that started all this in the first place. Having said that, I suppose electoral suicide didn’t stop the Labour party getting into their current mess. Second, anyone that wishes to retain as much EU-ness as possible should be more than a little nervous about a second EU referendum. Voting against any proposed settlement could leave us completely stranded.
Is the Queen still purring ?
‘If anyone’s got anything else they’d like us to clear up authoritatively and definitively, feel free to ask. We’re here to help.’
🙂
Great!
I’m not too sure if an authorative & definitive answer of ‘who knows’ will be all that helpful but thanks anyway.
I’m joining @k1 – snigger
Rev!!!!
Put up a Yes/No poll for us baby Wingers on your questions.
You can e-mail the results to the people concerned 🙂
It’s not any more mad than what has been going on.
If they dont leave the EU, next GE should be UKIP’s for the taking. Even if it’s fudged and they keep putting off article 50 for as long as possible, its having a massive economic impact, maybe enough to trigger recession. Sterling’s crashed but FTSE 100 back up to pre referendum, so no one knows.
UK’s got so much debt, its too big to fail. UK debt will be primary BBC BetterTogether 2 mass terror weapon, as yoon culture shrieking gets louder and louder. Debt will bring Scotland to its knees, EU will make austerity teamGB look like an act of mercy, there is no oil left, armed check point charlies, family ties, you owe us…Project Fear 3 writes itself now.
link to archive.is
Parliament partial lockdown amid ‘chemical incident’ as police identify suspicious package
Oh, we’re allowed to ask questions.
Is it too late for Chris Evans to become a Tory leader candidate for the LibDems?
Was the white powder delivered to the House of Lords meant for George Osborne?
1 thing i would like cleared up, is david mundell a bigger fud than adam tomkins?
EU mixed messages? Well, I interpret them at 100% good. Oddly, they have gotten better since EUref, not worse. You’re a pessimist one assumes 🙂 Don’t claim realism, this is all unreal.
Indyref2? Article 50 gun and it will follow. As yet – we are not ‘out’, thus manifesto requirement not made. When 50 is called, boom and I hope its a 1 month run-in, and tag the Scots Independence day as the EU exit day. Voila – ‘United’ Kingdom has a holiday on the same day as Scotland.
One question from me, sorry if its been asked before.
Will Scotland get control of our deep sea fishing area?
Unionists seem to keep saying that we will.
I suspect the answer from westminster and I’m sure of what the answer is going to here.
You missed a potential split Rev. IF May does not invoke article 50, will the Tory eurosceptics defect en mass to UKIP and thus deprive the government of its majority?
Sore sides here laughing…surely I cannot be the only one reminded of that old classic comedy spoof “SOAP” ?
‘Next week on SOAP,
Will cameron enforce Article 50,
will Boris get a ‘flat top’,
will Gove make sweet love to dangermouse,
will Corbyn go all hannibal lecter and wash McTernan’s black heart down with a nice little Asti Spumanti” ?
All these questions and more will be answered on the next episode of ‘Political SOAP’…
Far cry from Crash Gordon saluting their indefatigably back in his salad days, if that’s the saying, the psycho liar that he is
Rancid The Graun
4h ago
12:12
Bank chiefs pledge to protect the City
Five top executives from the biggest international banks based in London have pledged to work together to protect the City following the Brexit vote
Bosses from Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan issued the promise, after a meeting with chancellor George Osborne.
They cite Britain’s “brilliant workforce” and “stable legal systems” as key assets.
Its already clattering UKOK style, dear Rancid. 40 years of mis,dis, no, info from teamGB media gimps and here we are. How many Leave votes had even the faintest idea they were risking their whole economic future to take back their England?
In an interview with the Financial Times, Lagarde says:
“We want to see clarity sooner rather than later because we think that a lack of clarity feeds uncertainty, which itself undermines investment appetites and decision making.
The IMF believes could UK cushion the impact of leaving the EU by agreeing a Norway-style agreement (basically getting access to the single market, but also agreeing to EU laws and freedom of movement). That would only cut 1.5% off GDP growth by 2019
However, if the UK clatters out of the EU without a new trade deal, it will revert to standard WTO tariffs – meaning the economy would be 4.5% smaller than otherwise by the end of the decade. The boss of the WTO has already warned that this would cost consumers £9bn per year.
WM will drag its feet on Article 50, because, let’s face it, most of the politicians really don’t want to be out of Europe. However, as previous posters have implied, the result last week, combined with the big turnout, has left them very little wiggle room. I believe that the EU will give them a short period of grace, but once the next PM is in place, the pressure to start negotiations will become intense. He/she (or is it she/she) will be pressured on three fronts: UKIP, EU and the markets. None of these will be a mood to compromise beyond September. UKIP are set to make big gains in England when opportunities arise (byelections, council elections etc).
Oh Dear! Our lords and masters have really got themselves into a serious pickle this time.
What ever happened to the Labour Truth Team? Seems they were awful quiet during this referendum debacle. And the ensuing coup.
?mike cassidy says:
7 July, 2016 at 1:32 pm
“What are the chances of the other Scottish parties coming out in favour of independence?”
——-
Very small I reckon. There may be individuals who would defect from Labour, but there is so much history of opposing the SNP it would be hard to back down from that.
For all their noble talk of international solidarity, many Labour politicians are simply British nationalists. Kezia doesn’t even want a real Scottish Labour party within the UK and there is nothing on her record that shows she has the initiative to make big decisions and take the lead.
But there would be a far bigger Labour for independence campaign this time, and the membership would be split.
Did I hear right this morning and some Tory Minister for European Affairs (or whatever) was dictating what Scotland would have to do in order to get into the EU.
I am not entirely sure that it has really sunk in what Brexit really means for some Tories.
Every time you look. Nigel Lawson said Snatcher Thatcher 2 is on the way but the old monster probably wouldn’t be very happy to see Canary Warf go tits up, or worse, head to Germany.
6m ago
15:59
Barclays fears rancorous Brexit negotiations
Analysts at Barclays have slashed their growth forecast for next year, predicting that the Brexit vote will cause “prolonged uncertainty and financial stress.”
They now expect the UK economy to contact by 0.4% next year, down from growth of 1.8% previously. They also cut their euro area growth forecast to 0.6%, down from 1.7%.
Barclays also see several flashpoints in the months ahead which could even put the future of the eurozone in doubt again:
Re – will Tony Blair be prosecuted? Andrew Tickell (Lallands Peat Worrier) in The National today notes that Impeachment is still available, though it hasn’t been used for 200 years and it is undemocratic as it would be the House of Lords who would conduct the proceedings.
But there it sits in the parliamentary repertoire – still, neglected, mute – awaiting revival.
link to thenational.scot
From the Herald: “Former Top Gear trio to stop off in Britain as part of Grand Tour”
Which of the Conservative – or Labour – leadership contenders is – The Stig?
My money’s on Corbyn.
@alexicon
I’m fairly sure the “four freedoms” the UK would probably need to sign up to if it wants to be aprt of the EEA, don’t include fisheries, so in theory the UK after Brexit would regain control over fisheries.
BUT the same argument used against Scotland in the EU – Spain – could be equally valid for the UK negotiating its EEA membership, Spai could object, and the acceptance of the UK’s leaving terms has to be unanimous in the EU. So the UK might concede – again – access rights to the EU in our fisheries.
I claim a first, haven’t seen this one so far 🙂
My Slovene girlfriend’s venting again. It was toryboy’s like not so future Lord Tomkinski wot lost it, so it must be wildly enraging.
Rancid the Graun today trying to make it’s SNP Leave votes that will save this farce union but really, who knows.
7 Jul 2016 11:01
2 Recommend In response to Rina56
You could start with the Austrian presidential election.
Even the notorious Austrian far-right presidential candidate (they will have a re-run of the elections in October) now says that he never ever even remotely wanted to take Austria out of the EU and that he has been only misunderstood.
–
AP Interview: Austria’s right-wing presidential candidate
The right-wing politician whose renewed candidacy for the Austrian presidency has Europe’s pro-EU political establishment in a tizzy, insists he’s miscast as a champion of his country’s departure from the European Union.
–
Ha ha ha.
Thank you, Brexiters, thank you ever so much for pulling the EU much closer together and for cutting the wings of your best ‘Eurosceptic’ friends across the EU. And without the destructive selfish UK, it will also be easier to reform the EU and make it better for us all.
A few days ago, the ONLY UK’s allies in the EU were nasty dangerous left/right extremist ultra-nationalistic demagogues (as Juncker put it, “retro-nationalists”). But even the retro-nationalists now realise that Brexit UK is far too toxic to even touch with a stick.
If it is just a switch over from uk EU membership to a Scottish membership of the EU should Scotland and Northern Ireland create some sort of union so that both member states gain access to the EU (the Pictish/Celtic union)
Capella says:
“Re – will Tony Blair be prosecuted?”
My feeling is some of the bereaved families may take a civil action if their experts believe there is appropriate evidence. Crowd funding certainly won’t be an issue!
While criminal cases require ‘Beyond a Reasonable Doubt’, civil cases require a lower burden of proof as ‘Balance of Probabilities’.
Gove eliminated. May Thatcher or Andrea Thatcher to be next Prime Minister. Thatcher will win. Everybody knows.
If you mix Blue Tory Mundell with Red Tory Murray, add a dash of Yellow Tory Carmichael (remember him?) does the resultant goo come out as Caramel Tory?
A collective noun for our endangered Unionist species; the Caramel Tories.
Answers on one side of an A4 please.
I know, It’s getting to me too.
Tory PM election went to plan, stalking horses double bridled & cropped into electing May and its no finnished ,she,s dain a tour of the Tory branches FFS.
Small correction to the section on the Labour leadership – Dan Jarvis has not “only sat in the Commons since 2015”.
He won the 2011 Barnsley Central by-election caused by the conviction of Eric Illsley for expenses fraud. He then served as a Shadow Minister for Justice from 2013.
He also served in Iraq – would that make him more or less suitable to be Leader of the Opposition right now? (Presumably the answer to that is – nobody knows!)
The tory membership will anoint Mother Theresa. Boak.
Ah Kezia may have some answers!
Scotland could remain member of EU and UK, says Kezia Dugdale
Ms Dugdale said work is being carried out by former Labour justice secretary Lord Falconer that is “exploring some potential avenues around a federalist solution”.
Aye, right. The Tories will just jump at the chance for that, not. Also, I don’t think the EU will want a UK out and in. They will want one of three … UK out, UK in, rUK out & iScotlnd in.
link to archive.is
O/T – but Chilcot is burning away beneath the surface.
A handy map of Western invasions of the middle East and vice versa.
link to twitter.com
@Paul says: 7 July, 2016 at 1:31 pm:
“Surely there’s a case for rUk to invade Scotland,…”
Err! Paul, what rUK would that be then?
Last time I looked, (10 seconds ago), there were only two KINGDOMS signatures on the Treaty of Union that created the United Kingdom.
As there has been no other Kingdoms created in the British Isles since then, and the former Princedom of Wales was annexed by the Kingdom of England in 1284, (Statute of Rhuddlan), and the Parliament of Ireland passed, “The Crown Of Ireland Act”, that put the Irish Kingdom’s crown on the King of England’s head in 1542, there are no other Kingdoms in Britain, (that includes the three Crown dependencies), to be united with if either of the only two partner kingdoms leaves.
There can only be three possible outcomes upon the bi-partite union breaking up.
One – and two: Scotland remains the country and the Kingdom of Scotland by retaining Her Majesty as The Defender of the Sovereign People of Scotland’s sovereignty or Scotland becomes a republic.
Three is the Three country Kingdom of England remains the Kingdom of England because, under English Law, once becoming sovereign no sovereign, by dint of just being sovereign, can renounce their sovereignty.
Which is why the Parliament of England DID NOT become a republic in 1688 when they deposed the monarch they shared with the Scots and invited William & Mary to ascend the throne but only if they delegated their sovereignty to the Parliament of England. Thus sidestepping the English law that said a sovereign monarch could not renounce sovereignty.
Which means that if England decided to become a republic and a single country they would have to convince the Welsh and N. Irish to become English or allow them to become independent.
New old Tory leader will not want to chance losing the position just gained. There will, in my view,be no general election.Another four years of Tory rule,then probably another decade after that.
It was 18 years last time.
I don’t see Labour sorting itself out even before the next election.Even if they got their new leader installed,that leader would still not have the support of what would be a dwindling number of members.Nobody votes for a disunited party.
So at least another nine years to be sure, of Tories,up to 2025 under the 5 year parliament rules. What will they destroy in that time?
“Aye, right. The Tories will just jump at the chance for that, not. Also, I don’t think the EU will want a UK out and in. They will want one of three … UK out, UK in, rUK out & iScotlnd in.”
This Hokey Cokey’s getting exciting, galamcennalath!
BLiS______d’s new big idea: federalism, as adopted by the Liberals about the siege of Mafeking.
You can’t say Labour aren’t on the ball.
I think, Leadsrom would be good for increasing the YES vote, but May will be better for post-YES negotiations – both for us and the rUK.
So Scotlab are looking for a federal solution. IF Brown had delivered his ‘guaranteed’ ‘near-federalism’ they would be a lot closer to it.
The focus is all on what the UK will do – or not. That is somewhat pertinent to the whole issue. Everything is always looked at here from the UK point of view.
There are 27 other member states. Yet there is no discussion of their positions, nor of opinions/ currents in those states.
Spain eyes up Gibraltar. They see it becoming a dispute between the UK and Spain alone now. It was the EU freedom of movement which slapped them down every time they got arsey about the crossings in recent years.
The Irish Republic doesn’t really want the North, but it does want a soft border. Where was that, or its wider implications, even mentioned before June 23rd here on big island?
Germany/Sweden/Holland and some others had an ally in keeping French protectionist tendencies at bay with the UK in. That staying hand has been removed.
Eastern Europe has security concerns viz Russia, and almost all of those countries have citizens working in the UK. They lose a political ally and have concerns about their citizens rights.
And that is just a brief superficial quick tour. This Brexit is a matter for every member of the EU. It may lead to the whole thing collapsing. It could lead to greater or lesser integration. It may encourage or discourage parties in other countries who want to leave.
A whole can of worms has been opened here. It is not just about the UK. It is not just about the British Tory Party. It is not even just about immigration. There’s a bigger picture.
If the UK does break up, if the EU does survive. I can see England joining back in again in 10 years from now. While they can still do the hokey cokey.
But remember, its not just about us.
Regarding the Labour issues, the Chicken Coups aren’t going to back down; I mentioned here I wrote to my MP demanding she back Corbyn, but an automated mass email saying she had no intention of doing so was sent out… 30 minutes before Chilcot was released. Good time to bury bad news, eh? New Labour old Habits die hard.
The end game, as far as I can see it, seems to be “We can’t oust Corbyn but we’ll try and hang onto our seats whilst still claiming we hold the moral victory, and then we’ll come back later and try again.” So it will all come down to whether Corbyn and the CLP have the courage to de-select them. I’d tend to say no, because they don’t know for certain whether an election will be called soon or not, and they can’t risk having no one to fight for seats in the short term. The PLP will back a General Election, as losing it is, for them, better than winning if it means they can oust Corbyn for not winning it (??)…
The moral position would be to call the election, so the British people can now vote on what kind of negotiated settlement they want with Europe; but I said here previously the Tories have no reason to call one; if EU negotiations are going to take years anyway, why not be the ones doing the negotiation and hold the UK reigns of power in the meantime as well?
But that security is predicated on the Leave voters not being outraged at the delay in invoking Article 50 in the next 4 years. The UK is irrevocably broken and angry now, so I don’t know…
Regarding Scottish Independence, Labour figures today were talking about taking legal advice on some sort of Federal UK, allowing Scotland to remain part of both the EU and the UK. This to me indicates Westminster believes a second Indy Ref is likely, and likely now to be lost so they’re looking for easier ways out on this question too. But that means overhauling the entire UK form of Government at the same time as trying to negotiate out of the EU. I just can’t see them doing it, because how can you negotiate with the EU when you don’t know who you are yourself?
My best guess then is that Teresa May wins the Tory Leadership election (tactical voting seems to have just this moment knocked out Gove, oooh they can’t wait for another Stern Matron to lead them), negotiates with Europe for the length of Parliament if they can, then puts what ever vague shape of the future UK/EU status they’ve managed to thrash out to the electorate in a second referendum (“Here’s the really bad reality you’ll have to face, and the SNP will break up the Union if you do; still want to do it?”)… which they think they’ll win, and on the backs of winning that, then call the General Election and presumably win that too.
Smashing Labour now whilst they’re weak may seem tactical, but the PLP is determined not to go anywhere, so why rush?
But as Stu says, who can be sure? Events dear boys and girls, events…
Anent the “Adams Family”, Mundell Jr,is just off the wireless pledging his undying alegiance to the Black Watch front-runner Morticia & proving his ability to waffle anodyne pish every bit as mind-numbingly as his pater. What they lack in good-looks etc’
Right now, British politics is like an edition of The Simpsons:
The Queen is Marge Simpson – Prince Philip is Homer.
Nicola Sturgeon is Lisa
Theresa May an Andrea Loadsom are Patti and Selma Bouvier
Jeremy Corbyn is Principal Skinner
Tony BLiar is Montgomery Burns
Alistair Campbell is Waylon Smithers
Boris Johnston is Bart
Ruth Davidson is Maggie
Willie Rennie is Ned Flanders
Professor Tomkins is Groundskeeper Willie
Jackie Baillie is Mrs Krabappel
Kezia Dugdale is Maud Flanders
Andrew Neil is Kent Brockman
Rupert Murdoch is Comic Book Guy
Gordon Brown is Krusty the Clown
Michael Gove is Sideshow Bob
Nigel Farage is Barney Gumble
Brian Taylor and Jackie Bird are Cletus and Brandine Spuckler
Alex Salmond is Jebediah Springfield
So Margaret Thatcher is to be the prime minister again. I must say she’s looking good considering she’s been a rotting corpse for the last three years.
Theresa May bears a remarkable resemblance to Thatcher. She’s from the deep south of England, her father was churchy, she went to a state school, studied a “soft” science at Oxford Uni and she’s a right wing Tory. She will come to power just at a time of economic hardship and her brutal policies will unite England behind her just as Thatcher did not so long ago. Scaaaary!
It breaks my heart to see history repeat itself so soon and to know that my kids future will most likely be ruined by the same forces that ruined mine.
Seven years in the making yet one day after the release of the Chilcot enquiry not a mention on BBC 6 O’Clock news. Nothing to see here now, move on. Now,a rusty bolt on the FRB in Scotland, that’s a different matter.
Fred @ 5.43 PM
Regards Mundell
Made the error of watching Scottish Questions last night
or should be called ‘How much venom can be aimed at Scotland, Questions’
I started to tune out of all the crap, when I started watching Mundell answering. Not sure if it was the close in shot by the camera, but I am convinced there is something going adrift and would possibly suggest medical help for Mundell
Its how he moves his hands and arms as if he is a psychotic post office counter clerk stamping everything before him
Its even worse if you have the sound off!
Its like he thinks that, like with most politicians he has to emphasise a point that he is saying by coordinated hand movements, but in Mundell’s case its not coordinated as he stamps away at imaginary postal orders on the dispatch box
Recommend having a look to see what I mean
When I put the sound back up , hear him answer pertinent questions from SNP MP’s with complete twaddle, confirming that he really should not be in that job as he hasn’t a clue
Cal at 6 05 pm,
Yes, but when Thatcher came to power, the North sea was just about to hit its peak output, pumping more oil out per day than Qatar. Their was no ‘economic miracle’ with Thatcher, it was just she had lots of cash coming every day from Scotland’s oil assets.
At the time, of cousre, Scots were still being told that Scotland’s oil was worthless, and that besides, Scotland was too poor, too wee, and too stupid.
NEW Thatcher, about to be elected, will have very little in the way of North sea revenues – certainly nothing like that witch Thatcher Mk.1 (may she burn in hell) stole from Scotland.
Its a sign of times that is takes the constant presence of at least 4 police offices to protect the public from Ms May, aka ‘Cruella’
FAQs continued:
Is true that D Cameron is retiring to Jura and will open a Pig Farm / leisure center?
On a more serious note:
When will the SNP grow a pair and start challenging the BBC bias on-air and refuse to participate in unbalanced debates?
Why are postal votes not outright banned like in many other EU countries?
Since fluffy has clearly stated that Scotlands vote doesnt count for anything, how can he represent Scotland in Cabinet…meaning any way to put pressure that he resigns?
If Labour splits, where does that leave the branch office? mmwaaaahhaaaahhaaaa
Remarkable piece in the Guardian from Libby. A classic example of an a priori assumption turned into a story by hammering the facts until they fit they shape you want.
Libby pandering to the Guardian readership – no comments yet but hopefully we will get a chance to deconstruct it. I have a sledgehammer at the ready.
@davidb
Excellent analysis.
Tears of a clown.
link to news.sky.com
She left a “powerful impression”, he recalled, despite already being unwell and “unengaged with contemporary issues”.
“She was flowing with advice to me: you can’t spend what your country hasn’t got; strong defence rests on a strong economy; in Parliament, if you’re not on the attack you’re in retreat. Wow!,” he wrote.
“I saw for myself for the first and only time why she had been such a force of political nature throughout my whole life.”
Mr Osborne described himself as one of “Thatcher’s children”, praising her optimism about the human spirit.
Once again for the cheap seats
She was flowing with advice to me: you can’t spend what your country hasn’t got; strong defence rests on a strong economy
She was flowing with advice to me: you can’t spend what your country hasn’t got; strong defence rests on a strong economy
Good advice it was too.
Papko says:
7 July, 2016 at 7:05 pm
She was flowing with advice to me: you can’t spend what your country hasn’t got; strong defence rests on a strong economy
Good advice it was too.
Hey Paps, just watching C4 teatime news and my question is, are all tories ball aching arseholes?
What a fankle England has got itself into. I feel like throwing it a lifebelt but some nasty neo-con politician will only sell it off to a private company.
Blair and brotherhood: link to wp.me
@Papko
She also said “you can’t spend what your country hasn’t got”.
So why did neither she nor Osborne follow that advice?
Since 1980 there has only been six years when a budget surplus has been delivered, twice under the Conservative’s John Major in 1988 and 1989 and four times under Labour’s Gordon Brown in 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001. [6] With Labour only being in government for 12 of the last 35 years this means they have a much better track record of delivering budget surpluses than the Conservatives, who have been in government for 23 of the last 35 years
link to en.wikipedia.org
Papko
QE ?
—————————————-
More ?s
Mundell’s. Why?
Dugdale. How?
Leadsom. Who?
So C4 news boosterise planet toryboy to high heaven, meanwhile the latest toryboy catastrophe causes even more harm
FT
Market commentators discuss what will happen to sterling
Sterling
The pound has fallen more than 20 cents in the wake of Brexit. Analysts expect further declines. With sterling appearing set for one of its biggest slumps in the modern era, rivalling those of the financial crisis and the ejection from Europe’s exchange rate mechanism in 1992, the FT sought the views of market commentators on what happens next to the currency.
Simon Derrick, head of BNY Mellon’s markets strategy team: The peak to trough decline in sterling against the dollar was 29 per cent in 1992-93 and 34 per cent in 2007-08. Similar declines would today drive sterling down to $1.22 and $1.1350.
David Blanchflower, professor of economics at Dartmouth College: Sterling could go well below $1.20, as “this is a classic response to uncertainty, to trade flows and to the fact the Brexiters had no plan”.
Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street: Sterling’s fair value is $1.47, so a not-uncommon diversion of 20 per cent takes you to $1.20. “But we are most concerned about foreigners selling gilts.” A Bank of England rate cut into an inflationary environment could see foreigners dump their gilt holdings.”
£
£
£
£
£
£
£
Old Snatcher Thatcher must turning in her pyramid.
@stoker 3:02 et al. I read that article and commented there too. It’s based on a fundamental falsehood created by Stuart, one that is demonstrated by the embedded links themselves. At no point have the Scottish Tories said they would not oppose a second referendum. On the contrary, they have consistently and clearly opposed and argued against one. My point is not a Politically motivated one, I simply dislike hypocritical blowhards.
Nicola Sturgeon said the Scottish Government is preparing a Referendum Bill so that it will be ready whenever it is needed. As was noted in the article, nobody really knows if, or when the British Government will pull the trigger for Brexit by invoking Article 50. Until that happens, says the EU, there will be no negotiations. But when it does happen, it is already final – there is no way back.
So, could that mean that the moment the British Government enacts Article 50, that same moment the Scottish Government, having exhausted all other avenues, will immediately enact the new, already prepared Indyref Bill?
And could it be that Nicola Sturgeon will in fact already have from the EU a cast-iron guarantee, which the EU will at that precise moment make public, that an independent Scotland will be accepted immediately as a continuing member of the EU?
If so, then at that moment the Indyref that will follow in Scotland will be a straightforward choice between two questions: Do you want an independent Scotland within the EU? Or do you want a Scotland for ever outside the EU, but within the UK and therefore, equally ‘for ever’, or at least for the long-term future, subservient to the self-evident shambles that is Westminster rule?
It seems a straightforward choice to me. A no-brainer, in fact.
Hopefully, it would seem the same way to the majority – indeed, the vast majority – of the Scottish electorate.
If the UK says Holyrood can’t run a referendum like that, the Scottish Government / Nicola Sturgeon simply says: just watch us! And goes ahead with it anyway. We are morally and in every way obliged to run precisely such a referendum, in order to comply with the will of the Scottish people as so clearly expressed on June 23rd. The Scots want to stay in Europe, and it is our job to make sure that that happens. Your (Westminster’s) invocation of Clause 50 has left us with no other option.
So the invocation of Clause 50 and the launching of Indyref 2 are the new ‘strange couple’ in the room. Strange, maybe, but absolutely, inextricably linked and coupled. Making Brexit happen sets in motion the dissolution of the UK. The ‘strange couple’ heading for a double divorce …
Does that sound too straightforward?
Not saying there would be no risks, or no potential hitches, but it does seem to me to make sense. If the UK government invokes the irrevocable Clause 50, Scotland will certainly be on the way out of Europe. At that moment, the only way to stay in will be to become independent.
Being a democratic country, when that happens, we won’t declare independence by edict, however: we’ll make sure the people will genuinely want it, by holding Indyref 2.
And surely they will genuinely want it … even including not a few Scottish Tories, even perhaps the likes of Massie, and so on …
The alternative – perpetual subservience to an endless stream of incompetent Westminster governments cast adrift in the open sea, and leaking at every seam, without a life-raft in sight – would be just too terrible to contemplate.
Thank you, Boris and Nigel, Michael Gove and all the other goons, for finally helping us to see more clearly, getting us off the ship and, at last, giving us the boost we needed to set ourselves free …
The real trick would be to hold a referendum, win it and seamlessly remain in the EU as a new member state BEFORE article 50 is triggered.
That way we get to be part of the negotiations along with our friends in the other 27 member states.
@Martin Richmond says: 7 July, 2016 at 1:33 pm:
“If the view of the Scottish Tories is irrelevant why to you repeatedly lie about them having changed it.”
May it be that it is because the Scottish Tories, the blue ones that is, (as represented here in Scotland by that strange woman, Ms Ruth Davidson), has indeed changed her views fairly regularly.
Probably just a little more often than she changed her nether garments.
Did you actually read what the article stated? It actually detailed a fair number of directly opposite views on certain points.
As to their relevance to politics in Scotland it must be obvious, even to you, that with the various party representation at Westminster being :-
56 MPs from the Scottish National Party.
1 MP from the Labour Party/
1 MP from the Conservative Party.
1 MP from the Liberal Democrats.
Even if you were to count the London based party MPs together, as all being unionists together, their views are indeed irrelevant.
I would even speculate a goodly number of the votes cast for the Tories at Holyrood came from non-Tories who were actually protesting against the SNP.
Ask any activist who knocks doors what the most common bleat from those who were anti-SNP was. It would be along the lines of either, “Ah dinna like yon alicksammin”, or, “Ah dinna like yon Sturgin wummin”.
Yet upon asking what it was about either person they disliked they were totally devoid of any sane answer as a reason.
Europe hated Madame handbag as much as we did. A second coming of Thatcher will not help with any Brexit negotiations. See, you can find positives in anything if you look hard enough ?
The things is …as much as Stuart has highlighted the uncertainty in just about every ‘known’ scenario we have at the moment, only God knows what other sidewinder revelations are going to appear.
Sterling is still falling, so there is no danger that May (when finally elected) is going to trigger Article 50, even though she has stated that she would. They’ll want Sterling and the markets stabilised first if …and I say if …she ever decides to go for it.
Then if she should trigger Article 50, then we can all expect Sterling to begin plummeting heavily once more.
Now, this could be the kicker.
What happens if the SNP make a very Machiavellian move by allowing Sterling to plummet so far, and then announcing a 2nd Referendum while the markets are still reeling? Doing so would not only add further confusion to the system, but it will place greater pressure on Sterling as it slides once again, thus highlighting to any ‘doubting’ Scots that the UK ‘appears’ to be finished (England would go into a blind fury! Scots would be called everything under the sun …which I suppose, would end any notion of resurrecting the ‘love’ that we got in 2014 as well ‘Better Together’).
I can’t see Nicola activating Referendum 2 on the same day (or even the next day) if Article 50 is invoked. I believe the SNP would watch to see how not only the markets react, but also the Scottish population. But if the Scots react in anger, then just having that golden bullet to instigate the peoples wishes of a 2nd Referendum, while hammering Westminster and the UK markets further, could be the Union with a decisive 2nd (and possibly mortal) blow.
However …it’s all speculation. For the moment, the ride isn’t over yet. The question is …will Theresa May want to take us for a second round on the Rollercoaster …or will she too, just be all words and no action. If she doesn’t trigger Article 50, then I expect a few million Brexiteers to begin hissing in fury…
Hey Paps, just watching C4 teatime news and my question is, are all tories ball aching arseholes?
Heid yin , thats not a question .
What does it matter what they are, Scots voters base their choices solely on “talent”, that just happens to be the SNP, at the moment.
@Thepnr
“So why did neither she nor Osborne follow that advice?”
Thats the deficit reduction part, the austerity that has led to so many people suffering in the UK.
the deficit is coming down slowly, if it comes down too fast, it will be austerity “MAX”, which I understand is bad .
Snatcher Thatcher did do a great job, at making the south east of England and London very very rich. Major was a wet fart but Crash Gordon followed through on Snatcher’s work. Everyone else can be either like it or lump it. Which isn’t quite right as middle and upper middle class UK has done pretty well too by Snatcher.
SO the solution is, keep pumping serious borrowed money into the south east, like Heathrow’s new runway. Borrow cheap money, pump up the debt because who lives for ever. And giant debt also keeps the sweaties frightened out of their wits. Win win for Thatcher 2, probably have another bloody good war too, keep worshipping the royals, rule Britannia.
defo says:
7 July, 2016 at 7:29 pm
Papko
QE ?
Are you asking me to explain Quantitative easing? and why Govts use it.
I agree its not very fiscally prudent, it seems to be popular amongst the rulers of USA,Japan and the UK , not forgetting the ECB, who use it to the tune of 3 billion every month.
lets not forget when bemoaning Brexit, that the EU, is also in a bit of a muddle, as evinced by the shares in German and Italian banks , trading at levels last seen in 2008.
Personally I think the EU will reform itself in the wake of Brexit,they will reform or they will break up.
@Macnakamura says: 7 July, 2016 at 3:13 pm:
“Is the Queen still purring?”
Well not really, Macnakamura, but the Buck House scratching posts have had to be renewed tree times since the Scottish Referendum, and that’s strange, as the Royal Corgis saw of the last of the Buck House cats years ago.
Rab C. Peffers at 7.46.
Yon Sturgin wummin and yon alicksammin were and are constantly attacked by yon main media types so like Goebbels Nazi man, folk sub thingy take it in.
[sublimely mibbees aye mibbees naw]
Will and JLT: very interesting speculations.
Suddenly, most of the possibilities seem to favour us. How many times can that be said in the last 300 years? The thing is, those in the WM bubble seem oblivious to the potential economic Armageddon of Brexit and Scottish independence. I keep thinking of Renton’s Rant at Corrour in Trainspotting. How did these effete aerosols manage to control us for so long?
I bet you NS is good at poker.
@robertpeffers 7:46
“Did you actually read what the article stated? It actually detailed a fair number of directly opposite views”
No, it really didn’t. Not even one.
The Witch is Dead Long live the Witch
The new Mother welcomes them,although she is stigmatised,the yoons still gather,to listen,to hear the tales of the,as yet unfound treasures,in the glowing,gilded land of Yoon.
They willingly bring their children,their grandchildren to the Altar of Neoliberalism,to suckle from the great teats,to drink in the water of life itself….to be sacrificed.
Don’t worry they are told,by mother,we will look after you as she hands out the contracts,free funerals for all,complete with jackery,a laminated print of the monarch of the glen to those from our northern region.
She is too late,Scotland’s people refused to be imprisoned any longer by Westminster,there is,no longer a line of sacrificial lambs,they choose to be part of Scotland’s intellectual enlightenment,choose to be both Internationalist and Nationalist,choose to look both outwards and inwards and choose to look forward.
Choose to restore the Scotland’s Independance and for all the right reasons,not for glory……….
Welcome to Modern Scotland….ma’am.
Papko says:
7 July, 2016 at 7:57 pm
Hey Paps, just watching C4 teatime news and my question is, are all tories ball aching arseholes?
Heid yin , thats not a question .
What does it matter what they are, Scots voters base their choices solely on “talent”, that just happens to be the SNP, at the moment.
At the moment, is very clever Paps. Maybe you’re right, SNP government is just a blip in teamGB history, long to rein over us, before the old wee low flying SLab troughers come back?
Scotland’s half the UK but doesn’t exist on planet toryboy
link to archive.is
Well it is a safe place for a nuke dump, in case any missiles do go off.
Papko
I was only pointing out other options.
QE seems to be the monetary equivalent, or similar at least to matter/anti-matter pairs appearing out of the vacume.
Something, from nothing. Like the fiat banking system.
“All the referendum really did was ask the people of the UK their opinion. So far as the law is concerned the government doesn’t have to do anything about that opinion.”
How could the EU have a member state whose government ignored the democratic vote of the people?
Unless they are total hypocrites, they would have to suspend the UK’s membership.
When is Labour going to get it through their thick heads that federalism only works with the regions within a country. The U.K. is not a country, Scotland is not a region. I normally respect Billy Bragg but even he has been taken in with this bollocks from Kezia Dugdale.
Given the impact the uncertainty of if/when the UK will trigger Article 50 on other economies including EU members there may come a point where it’s decided to suspend the UK’s membership.
The Scotland I live in is (apparently) a valued partner in the UK, this union of kingdoms. So it is interesting to reflect on the role we, the Scottish electorate, play in deciding who becomes the most powerful individual in the UK, the next Prime Minister.
What role should I expect? I know Scotland is a small country but not much different in size from Denmark, Norway, New Zealand and others. The electorate in these countries always decide on who governs them. And these independent countries have decided, for themselves and for good or ill, to maintain their membership of a variety of ‘unions’: Nordic Council, EU, British Commonwealth, NZ-Australia Closer Economic Relations (CER trading partnership) etc..
But right now people in Scotland just have to sit and wait (preferably, it seems, humbly, quietly, patiently) as our place in two unions is decided for us. Of course there is an exception to this – Tory Party members in Scotland can now help to decide how best to represent all Scotland’s interests in the selection of the next UK PM.
I’ve been stepping through the process that exemplifies what claims to be democracy for Scotland in the UK. You know this but bear with me.
Firstly, the 2015 General Election was won by the Tory Party with c. 37% of the popular vote UK-wide. The Tories had 15% of the vote in Scotland which returned one Tory MP.
Secondly, during the 2016 EU referendum campaign, the PM and the same senior cabinet ministers all recommended voting to Remain, based at least in part on what the PM claimed had been achieved in terms of EU membership reform. But of course, the referendum defeat for the position held by the PM’ and his senior ministers’ has led to resignation and to a Tory leadership contest. Mr Cameron presumably feels he no longer has the credibility, no longer the mandate, to continue in post. But despite this, to date none of the candidates for PM has committed to seeking a new mandate to govern via a GE. UK governance only considers such things as part of party political/tactical manoeuvring.
The list of Tory leadership candidates has been whittled down to two through private hustings (and probably horse trading). And Scotland’s interests in this have been represented by one out of 331 Tory MPs.
Of course, the final two candidates must face election by Tory Party members i.e. by c.150,000 people across the UK. Who knows, but almost certainly much less than 10% of this number reside in Scotland – can’t get pictures of the ‘crowd’ at Scottish Tory Party conferences out of my mind. Lucky Scottish members though, they should have the opportunity to listen to and question the candidates in advance of the vote but again at private meetings.
Once the new Tory leader is appointed she immediately becomes the new PM with power to appoint a new cabinet and to shift direction on other aspects of policy if she chooses. Given the parliamentary arithmetic, this new PM, regardless of all that’s gone before, has the power to deny the UK electorate the opportunity to endorse, or not, her and her policies through a GE campaign any time soon.
As we watch as this process unfolds, I trust all ProudScotButs are remaining humble, quiet, patient … and suitably in awe!
@ Peter A Bell 2.33
Agreed, it’s coming, whatever happens down south.
As I’ve said before, I don’t give a rat’s nether regions what the parties down there are up to. Who’s going to be leader of 3 parties only interests me in how it will affect us.
I reckon if May gets in, she will have to push the button but will leave it for a while. Meanwhile, the UK will get a load of new austerity and as the tories do not like the Barnett formula it will be withdrawn. She will also force through the new nukes.
With a bit of luck by the time she does push the button the Scots will be so hissed off that they’ll by clamouring for Indyref2.
BTW @ Peter A Bell – great discussions on Tuesday at Wood Mill.
Is there any way Corbyn can force the rebel MPs to resign as MPs?
Most of them were undemocrately imposed locally and with the new grassroots members would not have official Labour support.
The Labour party really needs to be cleansed of every war criminal still holding office.
Who needs Mystic Maeg when we have you!
This federalism bollocks is fantasy. The English would need their own parliament. Scotland, England, Wales and NI parliaments would all need equal powers. The federal UK parliament to have credibility would need to be somewhere like Manchester or Liverpool, or move around. The House of Lords would have to go. It’s never going to happen, any constitutional change ever to happen in the UK is half-arsed and given with extreme reluctance. Look what happened after the Establishment had the shit scared out of it in 2014, they thought it was curtains, and all they could come up with was Smith, EVEL, and the Scotland Act FFS. They are incapable of any vision or radical action, stuck forever in the 18th century.
Glamaig says:
7 July, 2016 at 9:32 pm
This federalism bollocks is fantasy.
You are right. We Scots are supreme. No-one is our equal.
Never heard the English nor any other foreigner, syaing that we were their equal nor treating us as such.
Guess we’re only treat by others by the price we set upon ourselves.
And it should be a high price. Right?
I will be brief. Our first minister is correctly consulting with her expert group and having informal talks with EU contacts. At the end of that process she will take our country forward in the best way she sees fit. We all vary in our opinions of what that way should be but I Not Robot, have faith in her abilities, her fortitude and her desire to do what is best, not just for Scotland but for the Scottish people.
Glamaig says:
“This federalism bollocks is fantasy.”
I agree completely with your analysis.
Over the coming weeks and months people have to work their way through some of this guff and realise for themselves …. there is only one viable option.
We need as many people as possible, voters and politicians to reach the inevitable conclusion.
The England centric Tories will want to have one solution for all. And it won’t come anywhere near what we need/want/expect.
A lot of good posts already and so little time…
Everybody and their dug knows that there will be no trade deal with the EU without freedom of movement. Even the Germans, who have been softest on Brexit, will not concede that, since it is an existential question for the EU.
So I have the impression that if Cruella becomes PM, as is likely (?), she will attempt a fudge, but done with volumes of hard-nosed bluster and in slow motion so as not to arouse (what she will hope are) now-slumbering Leave voters.
Plus some risible Vow2 scraps to appease the more gullible Scots like the ones that Libby Brook went scraping around for in that vile article in today’s Graun. (It joins my gallery of Graun infamy along with the full-page one by Esther Addley, a day before the indy vote, promoting Carmichael’s “political lie” that Shetland wanted continuing Union with Crown Colony status. And how much have we heard of that pressing notion since?) At what point will the diminishing readership of that once-proud liberal paper realise that they are now being peddled reactionary neo-colonial propaganda?
Personally, I’m not convinced that waiting for a long-postponed invocation of Art.50 is a viable strategy. I don’t think it’s by any means necessary to wait till then. After all, the facts are already irrefutable:
+ Whatever one’s own view of the EU, the whole of Scotland voted unanimously for a particular outcome, yet rUK clearly can and will ride roughshod over that democratic result with impunity, and will continue to do so as long as we remain in the UK. (Genuine pro-indy leavers need to wake up to reality, recognise priorities, and stop giving yoon troublemakers like Brooks a stick with which to stir up trouble.)
+ Whatever one’s own view of the Iraq War, the Chilcot Report reveals starkly that the people of Scotland can be taken to war entirely against their democratic will, and will continue to be vulnerable to rUK adventurism as long as we remain in the UK.
Do we really need any more affronts to Scottish rights before even the self-deluded are forced to admit that a sovereign nation is the only way that we can adequately protect our legitimate self-interest?
Which prime concern should in particular inform the current pathetic attempts by Scottish Labour to breathe life into the rotting corpse of “federalism”, a murder which they themselves committed in connivance with the other Unionist parties in the Smith Commission. The quicker that the SG can authoritively dispose of that vain conceit, the better-off we will all be.
I’m just hoping that the SG are active and astute enough to maintain the momentum that they have succeeded in creating so far, given a currently rudderless WM. Economic facts on the ground may assist with that, and propel matters forward rather faster than Cruella & Co may intend. Hoist by their own global marketisation philosophy, now that would be sweet revenge indeed!
UK neo fascists get going, probably feeding off that sneaky The Graun thing on the Moray coast.
link to archive.is
Ref 2?
“David Coburn, the leader of Scottish Ukip, has branded the proposal “undemocratic and wrong” and vowed to challenge it.
He told the Daily Express: “That would be a slap in the face to the almost 40 per cent of Scots who voted to leave.
“We are a nation that has been united for 300 years. Scotland voted to stay as part of the UK and that should be that.”
Scottish UKIP’s turd with eyes, leader, treasurer, tea maker… secratary, etc
Just out of interest which one of the Cruella twins do we think would be most likely to drive Scottish Independence forward quickest?
I’d vote for Andrea as I’m pretty sure she is utterly terrifying in her cluelessness and will mess up from the get-go whilst May has that wee sleekit thing going on that makes me think she’ll be more of a slo-mo f*ck up.
What do the rest of the class think?
Hi Martin Richmond.
You typed,
“My point is not a Politically motivated one, I simply dislike hypocritical blowhards.”
I feel moved to ask…
If you think Rev Stu is a “hypocritical blowhard”, why are you dipping into this blog, run by the sort of person you dislike?
Would you be able to cite any examples (let’s suggest 2) of the hypocrisy you dislike but find, conversely, attractive, such that it keeps you comong back here?
heed,
Wasn’t it the turd’s own chief honcho who was calling for a (EU) referendum re-run as soon as he thought his side had lost?
It has also not escaped our notice that the once-strident “no second ref” screeching from the likes of Buffalo Gal has all but disappeared now.
As for the Daily Snail, that is one comic assuredly without a future in iScotland.
Angus Robertson.
link to archive.is
The real Labour party darn Sarf states 100,000 new members in last 11 days. (Radio 5: 22:00hrs)
What time is it?
link to archive.is
Fife says well done Willie! Gordon still waiting… 🙂
link to archive.is
link to caltonjock.com
No, I don’t think the EU will do a ‘deal’ on freedom of movement. Both candidates reckon on free trade as per usual but no deal on immigration or freedom of movement (cake and eat it). They’re in for a shock IMO. Whilst one should never say never, good money is on the Norway model or take a hike UK. If its the Norway model, then a number of Tories will have a lot of explaining to do to the leave voter. If its UK take a hike… well… ditto.
Either way HMG and the leave voter need to take into account that not everyone on the planet sees things quite the same way as they do. 😉
galamcennalath says:
7 July, 2016 at 5:05 pm
Ah Kezia may have some answers!
Scotland could remain member of EU and UK, says Kezia Dugdale
Ms Dugdale said work is being carried out by former Labour justice secretary Lord Falconer that is “exploring some potential avenues around a federalist solution”.
———–
I could see a possible exception being made for Scotland to retain membership as a federal nation within the UK.
But any federal proposals are bound to also include London being treated as a federal area, and I can’t see how this would possibly be seen as acceptable by EU members, with the implications it would have for other ‘regions’ breaking away.
They also have their eye on banking and financial jobs that would seep out of London.
At least Scotland could be seen a special case – an ancient European nation within a union, if not a nation state.
Almannysbunnet at 9.13
And real Federalism can’t work when one part is ten times the size of the others.
Federalism of course leaves us with Trident,illegal invasions, poisonous foreign affairs and probably doesn’t give us the oil or the fishing grounds
It’s a nonsense and there is no chance of it unless Scotland is reduced to the status of Yorkshire.There is no appetite for it in England. Independence is a much simpler and less complicated prospect.
A confederal union proposal could knock federal nonsense out in political terms.
Spectacular load of Scottish tory bollox from Ruth Davidson on BBC 2 Newsnight there, as she skitters all over the place on free movement of people to Brexit teamGB. “Going forward” is the grinning idiot’s tory go to.
Hi Brian,
I read a lot, online and in print and enjoy taking in diverse sources. I came across this blog during the recent aftermath of the Hillsborough enquiry. It struck me that it is largely devoid of contrary views or any kind of moderation of its claims. This article, and the previous one on Ruth Davidson “round in circles?” contain clear misrepresentations of the kind that the author regularly (and often correctly) derides in the mainstream media. Indeed, the blog bills itself as a “lie detector” and “media monitor”. These aren’t mistakes or differences of opinion, both articles are deliberate lies.
You don’t find that at all hypocritical?
Swedes don’t want to join NATO. I wonder why.
link to on.rt.com
Independent Scotland could have a vote on staying in.
Q Will Scotland vote to exit NATO?
A federal UK dont make me laugh,the slabbers have had 2 years to convince their blue tory masters of the VOW and devo max.
I smell crash broon or i have stood in dog shit nope its the broon alright.
They had their chance to save the union but resorted back to usual westminster bollocks of lying their arses off and trying to save their own necks.
Same crap different day stick your devo max federalism where the sun dont shine,or have you forgot we already have devo max or at least what westminster thinks is devo max so how can we gain more federalism than that,unless of course you are all lying gits.
Indyref2 is coming when nobody knows but it is coming and this time your devo max crap will not work.
DMH:
Precisely. It’s a notion with a snowball’s chance in hell of happening. (After all, it was first legislated for by WM in what, 1914? Progress flowing at the speed of cold tar.)
My concern is that SLab’s sudden interest is more than mere denial, a desperate grasping at straws, but rather a deliberate strategy to delay and obfuscate, to tangle up the whole discussion in the hope of diverting attention and energy from achieving full sovereignty.
The problem with waiting for article 50 to be triggered first, is that it might never happen, or take forever to happen. If we link our fate to Article 50, we have at a stroke surrendered the initiative and left our second referendum hovering in the ether, waiting for “something” to happen to trigger the launch of the campaign.
There was a window of opportunity immediately after the Brexit result when anything was possible, Indyref 2, or even a UDI with democratic ratification.
I appreciate it was a judgement call. With the polls where they stood, it would have been a big gamble, however if Indyref had been formally launched, we would all have emerged from the shock of Brexit and a second Independence referendum called as an immediate and direct consequence of Brexit. When the dust settled, the YES2 campaign would have already hit the ground running, and be hurdling like a champion with one ringing endorsement from Europe after another. We could have given ourselves 6 months to a year to work on swinging the polls before the actual vote, fuelled by the catalogue of YES1 issues suddenly turned on their heads.
Nicola started out superbly, taking the initiative and consolidating Scotland’s distinct identity, and I couldn’t have been happier. But come on Nicola, I don’t know whether we are losing momentum, I hope not, but it feels like we could be.
I repeat my concern, if we tie Indyref2 to Article 50, we are putting ourselves in limbo until Westminster takes the initiative, the very initiative which we will have surrendered. If we are not binding our fate to Article 50, then what specifically should we expect to be our tipping point to cry havoc and unleash the dogs of YES?
If there are sound reasons or prerequisite issues delaying YES 2, then fine, but get them out of the way sharpish. If we can’t expect a YES launch, then at least we need some deadlines to be thrown into the pot. Say, if article 50 has not been triggered by September, then Scotland will simply have to act unilaterally.
Let’s start building up the pressure on Westminster with some firm but cordial ultimatums or deadlines. Keep the momentum we hold, and give ourselves the future trigger points which we can use as launch pads for YES2 in the event Article 50 never happens.
Hi Martin Richmond.
You typed,
“This article, and the previous one on Ruth Davidson “round in circles?” contain clear misrepresentations of the kind that the author regularly (and often correctly) derides in the mainstream media.”
It’s fine that you are giving us your opinion but you neglected to provide 1 or 2 examples of the “deliberate lies” you find so hypocritical.
We need it in black marker on a whiteboard to make it clear, because we’re all a bit dense, we who read btl.
It’s strange, I’ve always been told that the worst thing for the economy in uncertainty. The present government (and opposition) campaigned in 2014 on the platform that they represented certainty for the future.
So where is it?
This article, and the previous one on Ruth Davidson “round in circles?” contain clear misrepresentations of the kind that the author regularly (and often correctly) derides in the mainstream media.
Give us an example or tow Martin?
Hi Breeks.
I’m with you on “momentum”. The grassroots are stirring again, though. I have a feeling that the requirement for “YES Scotland” may be as only a conduit for campaign material to those who are doing the needful.
DMH,
Re confederation, out of respect for the result of the indyref, I submitted a very detailed proposal along such lines to the Smith Commission. From the very limited public release of proposals, I was by no means alone in that approach.
We might all have saved our time and effort. What could have been a positive and mutually-respectful way forward was quickly revealed to be nothing more than a contemptible, craven, self-seeking political stitch-up, and one for which all three Unionist parties must share the historical consequences.
That was the last-chance saloon. We’re out on the road to full freedom now, and there’s no going back. We’re going to get there too. Diversionists, doubters, nay-sayers and Scot-buts please note.
George Galloway on QT, mad as a box of frogs, but at least he is no Blair apologist. Always, worth listening to on Middle East.
Jeez, coming from Brighton, audience 99% Brexiteers.
There is a definite change in the mood music across public figures, news channels etc.
Shut up and get on with it.
I notice its not Brexit any more, it’s exit from EU.
@Martin Richmond says: 7 July, 2016 at 8:31 pm:
” … No, it really didn’t. Not even one.”
Please accept my apology, Martin, I had made the stupid mistake of thinking you had actually left prep school and could not only read but comprehend what the actual words you sounded out actually said.
Breeks, I remember a phrase which I think came from Robin McAlpine. You dont win a referendum during a referendum. Our work is needed now so that whenever it is called the conversations etc have already started (and they have).
In reference to an independence referendum, the article above says: “The Scottish Conservatives have promised to not oppose one”. As evidence it includes a link to an article in Herald Scotland that says ”
The Scottish Conservative leader believes talk of a second referendum is “further destabilising” in the wake of the Brexit vote and that Nicola Sturgeon has acted “prematurely” in discussing the prospect of one.”
Not exactly as billed then.
The closest you might come in the article linked to the assertion made by Stuart is a quote from Ruth Davidson that says ”
“I have never said it should be denied, I didn’t say it the last time either.”
Does any of that sound like “promise to not oppose” to you?
I can’t ‘see’ QT, but am listening to it on FiveLive.
Galloway may be taking perfect sense, but it’s sailing over my heid because all I can ‘see’ is that fucking hat.
Galloway may be many things, but he ain’t Bill Hicks.
Question Time on EBC seems to have evolved
It’s own version of EVEL.
When the Lin Dems were the 3rd largest Party
In the UK, they almost always has a representative
On the panel. It now seems that now SNP hold
That mantle, you can forget about that old precedent!
No SNP on tonight’s show, but they do have a Lib Dem,
and George Galloway of all people?
Alex Salmond has proven to be very knowledgeable
On the Chilcot situation but the EBC must have
Missed him out to maintain Westminster being
Detached from morality or justice.
Norway doesn’t want uk in EEA/EFTA.
link to independent.co.uk
Hope the link will not mean hammers – don’t know how to archive.
Why do we keep going on about … rUK … surely if it’s ‘r’ then it’s not ‘U’? How about ‘rEK’? Sounds like a new nasty baddy from Star Trek or a noise you make on the point of throwing up.
@Martin Richmond says: 7 July, 2016 at 8:31 pm:
BTW: Martin, I intended to also mention that you seem rather computer illiterate too. If you were not so you would know that the blue text parts in the Rev Stu’s article are links to what is being referred to.
Unfortunately I’m having some persistent troubles remaining connected to the internet. I get cut-off frequently without warning. The auto-diagnostics I have installed on this machine is unable to find the cause but the connection to the xbox and on-line TV on my home network remains stable.
I’m up to my ears in some household renovations. I just lack the time and energy to be bothered tracking the fault down just now.
Just so that you know the facts, Stu never claims anything whatsoever without backing it up. If there is a photograph, cartoon, (or a reference printed in blue), then a simple click on picture, cartoon or blue text will take you to the reference.
I suggest you re-read the article again and click the links and then be man enough to apologise to Stu for your unfounded accusations.
Robert J. Sutherland at 11.23
I’m with you entirely on that. The door is open and we must go through.
I would promote a confederal UK (ie INDEPENDENT nations agreeing to cooperate on areas of mutual interest – like the Nordic Union) to pull the teeth out of the federal nonsense.
We have to be independent before a confederal option presents itself and any we were involved in should also include ROI – though I would probably rather join the Nordic Union.
@robertpeffers
I sympathise with your time and technical challenges. Perhaps internet blogs aren’t the best source of information for you.
O/T.
link to theguardian.com
@Martin Richmond –
Sarcastic pricks don’t last long in here.
You’ve been asked to back-up your earlier statements by several posters, and have ignored them all.
Take yer pish elsewhere.
Hi Martin Richmond.
You’ve got your “Patronising ‘O’ Level”, iye?
I think I will now find more productive ways to spend my time, rather than debating with you. My needlework is sadly neglected of late…
Ian,
I believe i gave a clear explanation with evidence at 11:37
Labour activists tell Kezia Dugdale to get behind Jeremy Corbyn
link to archive.is
———————————————————-
Anyone for tennis?
Hark the Herald:
link to archive.is
@Martin Richmond –
If I had seen anything interesting in your 11.37 comment I would’ve referred to it.
I was referring to your cheapshot at 12.05.
As you well know.
There’s too much going on right now for anyone to have to deal with troublesome, nit-picking pedantic fuds, but hereabouts we tend to get through it by taking turns at telling them to fuck off.
I’m getting my ‘turn’ out of the way right now so I can think about something else, but I trust that others will step forward as and when you contribute further pointless snark.
So, ‘Martin’, could you please save yourself and other people valuable time by just ‘going away’ right now?
Cheers in advance!
🙂
@ Martin Richmond 12:16a.m.
Besides Robert Peffers(retired industrial civil servant 1690/1707), Mark Fletcher will be on your back calling you a Lord Haw Haw. Very cultish behaviour when you try to put forward a different opinion. You would think they really didn’t want independence for Scotland, the way they attack anyone not part of their groupthink. 🙂
@ Martin Richmond 12:05am
“…Perhaps internet blogs aren’t the best source of information for you.”
I do so enjoy the condescension and patronising tone of the yoon. Keep it up there’s a good chap! Every smug snide petty little remark from the likes of you and Pappy brings new converts to the cause of independence. First class recruiting sergeant you are sirrah!
Have a heart Ian, the poor wee soul is only looking for some attention.
“Ian”,
I think I see now why there is such paucity of debate here. For all your bluster, not one of you (least of all the author) has even attempted to challenge my point with other than insult or pejorative.
@T222Deracha –
Okay pal, I’ll bite…
What’s your opinion…on anything?
You want to talk about ‘groupthink’?
You’ve come to the right place.
Let’s hear it then…
Can anybody post a quick paragraph or so on .. Why .. federalism can’t work?
Sorry if it’s been explained else where.
It’s just when I make that statement to anyone I would like to be able to elaborate and I don’t know how. Thanks.
And still not…
I’m not here to generate an artificial disagreement or feed your need for one. My point was reasonable and well founded, the responses were not.
@Martin Richmond (12.48) –
You haven’t made any ‘point’.
You’re defending Ruth Davidson and lambasting Stuart Campbell, and failing miserably at both.
Please pick one or t’other – exercise whatever critical faculties you possess to construct a logical and cogent argument.
If you can’t do so, stop wasting everyone’s time.
Nice IB
Yoon even cheats himself at solitaire,’I won won,do I get a prize ?’
Yes you do,a bootleg copy,of the sound of silence by whaleoilbeefhooked.
😉
Is that us a Cult again FFS naebidy telt me.
Ah canny keep up.
Martin Richmond
What you selected out of context from the above article:
“The Scottish Conservatives have promised to not oppose one”.
What the Rev actually wrote in the above article:
‘The Scottish Conservatives have promised to not oppose one, then oppose one with every last fibre of their being, and then not oppose one but not support it either. As there’s at least theoretically a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, their votes would be irrelevant anyway so it doesn’t actually matter what they think, say or do.)
What point are you trying to make?
You are selecting out of context to concur with your own prejudices…now…either make some astute observations or give an opinion about the content of the article above or fuck off.
We don’t have the time nor inclination on here to be fanny arsing around wi rank amateurish pish such as your comment provides.
You can’t even quote the fucking article correctly, so we’ll be extending no more time than it takes tae wheech awa a wee flea on any mair o yer shite.
Go easy you lot this person is casting around Scotland looking for someone stuck in 1690…..and came up with Robert Peffers
Liz
It’s quite late,but on this thread there is a couple of mentions/opinions at 9:13 and 9:32 that may be of use.
Cheers
‘when you try to put forward a different opinion’
What ‘opinion’ did he put forward?
Aye…that’s correct he didn’t…he’s here tae attack the Rev wi unfounded assertions.
But you? You’re a wee snotty coward hiding behind his back egging him on…you offered nothin’ but snide and sarcasm.
Bet ye were a wee bully at school tae…only in a crowd mind, eh?
Pathetic.
Carjamtic thanks will take a look.
Hmm…
Thinking about the campaign groups for ref2, for Yes..
What about refusing to have an ‘official/nominated’ single group for the ‘yes’ movement.
To hell with perceived protocol.
To hell with making it ‘easy’ for the media.
To hell with the tory ruling elite and all their ‘rules’.
Scotland is to diverse to have a single self-certified spokesperson.
Been in more southern shires recently, strong out/no country.
You’ve gotta feel sorry for the muted majority.
Martin Richmond @ 1.33 PM.
There is no Scottish Tory Party, neither Labour or Liberal. These are UK parties, soon to become, I hope, English & possibly Welsh only.
The current set-up is BRANCH, as I christened them many years ago. You were a bit late, Johanne L. However, Thanks for making it more widely known.
Just reading that last bit, regards Scottish independence, the EU, mixed messages, and UKUturns. A thought came to me, it’s like they have given Scotland a gun, with 5 bullets, one blank. A kind of Russian roulette. Those numbers change, but basically, if we pull the trigger, it could be a hit or miss.
Still can’t understand why support for indy is not much more, 65% at least. Surely people no longer believe them down in westminster and their various unionist branch parties’ lies? Or do they?
Martin Richmond re above.
Please do not think that I am being pedantic or pernickety.
If people keep referring to Scottish Conservative (Tory) Party, Scottish Labour Party, Scottish Liberal Party, etc., using the pretext of continually telling a lie, Joe Public will eventually believe it to be true.
Classic MSM tactic.
Just wondering what Anthony Blair charged as his fee for the show yesterday. Did the public have to pay him directly? Or did he use a pump?
Martin first appeared on wings on 4th May this year with his attacks on Stu and his “woefully misleading articles.” Every time he has appeared since it has been the same theme. He generally manages to derail the topic. I think there is a name for someone who dose that.
Do you really want to interact with this? That is not Hollyrood in his profile picture and should tell you all you want to know.
link to twitter.com
@Martin Richmond
Your argument is similar to that of the man who walks into a shop and says “I’m not a violent man” and then walks over and punches the shopkeeper in the face.
“But, but”, says the shopkeeper, “you said you’re not a violent man”.
“Yes”, says the man, “but I never said I wouldn’t punch you in the face”.
Almannysbunnet @ 4.02
Thanks for the information any word on the other wan,
Son of the T 1,000 ? (Terminating good conversations everywhere)
I might be wrong in regards to England,but here civil servants are barred from being involved in political campaigns,it I understand is an activity that can get you fired.
(192): “We have found 87 people in the UK with the name Martin Richmond”
Artyhetty,
“Still can’t understand why support for Indy is not much more, 65% at least.”
If logic, morals and economics were the only considerations Arthetty, it should be 90%,
unfortunately there are some in this country who, if Donald Trump was to take over the
running of the U.K. in coalition with the Yorkshire Ripper, they would vote for it rather than be independent. In saying that, I believe the brexit result and reneging on the Vow has pushed
enough “don’t knows” to our side. This time with the right preparation we will win.
Liz Gray,
In a federal system each state has an equal vote, regardless of geographical or population size.
Therefore, Sco, Wal & NI, could outvote Eng. on any federal issue. They would never let that happen.
The ‘federalists’ usually propose an England divided into regions + Sco, Wal & NI, thereby giving Eng. an automatic majority.
So not really federal and no different than the present except that the english regions would have more devolved powers.
…cont/
Of course all regions would have to have the same devolved powers. Bit tricky that one as Sco has its own legal system. NI is getting corporation tax devolved which they certainly don’t want Sco to get etc.
What about the extra-regio territory? Normally defined as the parts of the economic territory of a country which cannot be assigned to a single region. In the UK it means the oilfields which clearly can be assigned and mainly to Sco. That clearly won’t happen. The only possible work around would be to make the extra-regio a region but without a permanent population how would it vote?
Also English voters voted against regional mayors with more powers when they were offered.
Scotland has a Scottish Parliament which has too little powers. It is still over ruled from Westminster which tries to control and lies at every opportunity, They keep their lies and criminal jactions secret under the Official Secrets Act and are never sanction. They break the Law with immunity, cheat, and kill innocent people. They are the most despicable people. Most of them should be in jail.They destroy the world economy.
If they can still do that when Scotland has it’s own Parliament. They will do it under a Federal system, even worse. Westminster just keeps on hanging on. There are so few members of Unionist political Parties, the pool is minute. Very few people will join a Unionist Party because they are so corrupt. There behaviourist appalling and they never get sanctioned or charge for breaking the Law. They just ignore the Law and get away with it. They are just greedy, troughing liars, who are out to line their own pockets.
They even tried to stop Democracy in Scotland with the contrived Political system to support Unionist control. Two transferable votes, which many people do not understand. Although they will get wiser. Good, strong government needs a majority. Otherwise a promised manifesto is more difficult to deliver. Not that Unionist Parties keep their promises. Renege on everything.
Those who can do, those who can’t become Unionist politicians. Whoever employed Tomkins at Edinburgh University needs their head examined. He is swanning round the world on jaunts on Scottish taxpayers money. He knows nothing of Scottish Law, history, society or culture. He is now troughing on two salaries. A 2nd rate unelected reject. Along with the rest of them.
Scotland is out voted 10 to 1, because of Westminster Unionist politicians despicable behaviour and ignorance towards Scotland and their obsessive control, which damage the Scottish economy. A Federal system will never work. They do not want to govern in favour of the people they want to govern in favour of themselves. At IndyRef 1 they promised more powers. FFA/Home Rule, Federalism. Then reneged on practically every promise. They just lied. In or out of the EU Scotland would be better Independent. It would be better in. The EU costs nothing and bring benefits. The UK Union costs Scotland £10Bilion+ a year because of Westminster centrists policies, which favour London S/E and drains money from Scotland.
Osbourne has (deliberately) ruined the Oil sector. High taxes when the price had fallen. Losing thousands of jobs in the UK. The Scottish Gov told them to take down the tax to be ignored. The Scottish Gov want to out a tax on ‘loss leading’ drink. It would help the UK economy but Westminster refuse. The Westminster Gov is intent on renewing Trident. £205Billions cost, 30 mins from Glasow, a major city. A complete waste of money. The got rid of misslues at Greenham Common. 45 mins from London in 1992 because of protests. Westminster intent spending £200Billion in HS2. A flawed business case. A total waste of public money. £200Billion on Hinkley power Station. A distaster waiting to happen. A complete waste of money which could be better spent.Cheaper renewable schemes would be safer and produce more fuel and energy.
Westminster has been illegally bombing the Middle East to bits, causing death and destruction for over 100 years for Oil. They are greedy parasites who are still bombing the Middle East illegally. Supporting illegal, apartheid regimes and absolute despot Monarchies who abuse their people and ruin their economies.
Westminster politicians are now intent on taking the UK/NI out of the EU against the wishes of a majority of people, 17million votes out of a 45Million electorate. A 62Million pop. Just ridiculous, The British parliamentary system is flawed. Wealthy people are buying 1st class degree at Oxford University and ruining the British economy. Oxford funded 200 to 1 of any other education institution. Are they just trying to turn the majority off politics by their wanton behaviour, so no one votes? Or are they just wanton greedy, criminals? Or both.
Better together. Not likely. Scotland needs a strong Independent economy. Where the major decisions are made by those who live and work in Scotland and whose lives and directly affected by the decision. Not overruled by politicians people in Scotland have never voted for their policies and never will. Westminster Unionists go from crisis to crisis to crisis made by their unpredictable, unreliable criminal behaviour. Most of them should be put in jail. They certainly do not believe in Democracy. That has failed.
Martin Richmond: “First class recruiting sergeant you are sirrah!”
One in, one out: check name is provocative, just waiting for the ‘methinks’, and then pseudo Shakespearian couplets.
Links
link to petewishart.wordpress.com
link to verfassungsblog.de
Blair must face war crimes charges
link to middleeastmonitor.com
Stench emanating from westminster grows stronger daily
link to politicshome.com
Links
link to opendemocracy.net
link to thelocal.no
Brexit=A coup by one set of public schoolboys against another
link to archive.is
link to nytimes.com
Tory party figures revealed 125,000 which apparently makes them the 3rd biggest. Thatcherbot2 soon to be unleashed from this bunch of parasitical incompetents.
liz Gray @ 00:57,
(If you’re still following this thread)
A federal state (eg. like the USA or Germany) has several regions of roughly similar population size/economic weight with substantially devolved powers, including their own government and legislature, plus an overarching federal government and legislature to regulate common matters (eg. currency, foreign policy).
To work in the UK, it would require that England be divided up into regions of population size roughly the size of Scotland. This is the main sticking point. There is very little popular or political will in England to do any such thing. Westminster is King. (In the Blair/Brown years, John Prescott made a half-hearted attempt to lay the groundwork for English devolution, but the referendum he instituted failed miserably.)
A more realistic solution might be confederation, where each of Scotland, England, Wales and N.I. had similar devolved legislatures, together with some arrangement for agreeing common matters. This was essentially what the Liberal Party was attempting to establish (“Home Rule”) over 100 years ago. The enabling law was actually passed despite bitter opposition from its many opponents, but it was overtaken by events (WW1, then Irish rebellion and independence). It hasn’t ever come to pass since because both main UK parties of the latter half of the 20th Century were ardent centralists for whom Westminster was all. (Labour because they were typical leftist top-down control freaks, Tories because they wanted no change to a status quo that gave them disproportionate advantage. As for the rump of the Liberals, they never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity, as the indyref revealed all too starkly.)
In flagrant contradiction to El Gordo’s high-minded assurances during the indyref, Labour did their damnedest in the Smith Commission to neuter even the very limited concessions that were being proposed, so their “11th-hour and 59th-minute” conversion to “federalism”, a notion that they have hated and opposed root-and-branch for most of their existence, carries as much conviction as a rail bridge made from matchsticks.
Lastly, there is absolutely no way (as will no doubt eventually be declared officially, though it’s already clear enough to anyone with more than two brain cells) that the EU will allow a part of a supposed “federal” UK to remain within the EU while the rest of it gets out. That pig just ain’t ever gonna fly!
Labour’s “federalism” is basically the hopeless in vague pursuit of the unattainable.
The English newspaper front pages are full of references to a Margaret Thatcher when reffering to the Tory leadership candidates. Meanwhile, on the Scottish front pages the words “Margaret” and “Thatcher” are nowhere to be seen. Funny that… It’s almost as if they were all working in unison for a common goal.
Q: WILL BRITAIN ACTUALLY LEAVE THE EU?
DEFINITELY NOT, the UK will not be leaving the EU.
England & Wales probably will.
It is becoming very clear that the SNP, Greens, and others, have absolutely no intention of allowing Scotland to leave.
After all other options have been explored and rejected one way or another, we will have IndyRef2.
How can we lose under current circumstances?
Just a note to those more gentle souls who may read lots and post little or never. ‘Lurkers’ I believe they are so named.
When you have a genuine question, discussion point, or want clarification, please have no hesitation in asking. Your input will be welcomed with open arms and you will be treated warmly.
It’s just people seeking to cause trouble, who can easily be spotted, who are dealt sharp shrift. Don’t let that put you off 🙂
@Nana
That NY Times piece pretty much nailed it.
““You really get the impression that the government is being run by a clique at public school,” said the novelist and political commentator Robert Harris. “They live in the same area of West London, they all socialize together, they were at one another’s weddings, and they are godparents to one another’s children. There’s a sense of a gilded circle who have played student-union politics with the country, in the service of their own ambition.”
Reports that the UK is having trade deal talks with India. But I thought the UK already had a trade deal with India via the EU. Is the UK doing deals behind the other 27 EU states’ backs? That’s not very nice, is it?
Must be a bit of a shock for tory boy trolls in England to find out their Scottish branch leader is not as popular as their MSM portrait her.
Whats the matter tory boys getting scared that the golden goose is about to use its Wings and fly away leaving you nothing but a pile of poo.
Tough.
Oh the irony.
British troops on the ground in Poland and Estonia?!?! Some 500 to be deployed in Estonia and 150 in Poland apparently.
Um….
Followers of Teresa May being referred to as May-niacs. 🙂
I have now come across several posters over the last month who triumphally state they have won an argument about Scotland by pointing out that their opponent lives in England,
FTI that wins nothing as it is meaningless in a logical factual argument. BUT it does show that such a person is a narrow tribal nationalist. You do not find such a brand of nationalism common in Scotland anymore. Civic nationalism encompassing internationalism is more pervasive within the SNP etc.
My mother used to say “wash your mouth out” if you said something nasty. The troublemaker coming on here with lies and distortions and other nastiness perhaps should have a Bath!
Cearc @ 6.39 & 6.18
Thank you very much.
That’s exactly what I was looking for.
Seems so obvious now. Feel so stupid for not working it out. LOL.
@Macart
The media in the UK don’t have the guts to call it like it is, all too cosy in their cliques. The day Murdoch came along was a dark day for us all.
I’m in a bad mood.
O/T
link to twitter.com
link to uktradeinfo.com
All this pooling and sharing Eh?
Time we started demanding a full and proper accounting. We know fine well Scotland is chained to service England’s debts. The thought that this continues under such a vile government turns my stomach. Rich getting richer while everyone else is trodden down.
Leave voters really think things will get better now, good luck with that.
Robert J Sutherland @ 8.24
Thank you very much also for taking the time to reply.
I agree with you that they would never in another 300 years get anything approaching this up and running.
@james munro 2.03pm
I would add:
Will Teresa May become PM – Yes.
Any EU country can trade with who they like and do. Being a member of te EU doesn’t stop individual countries trade with the rest of the world. They do both.
The EU can obtain better trade deals with large continents as a collective co-operative. Large continent put up trade barriers and tarriffs to protect their own economies. The EU as a large body – more clot and economic power. China,(1.2billion pop) India,(1Billion pop) US (300million pop) Brazil etc can put up barriers and tarriffs to protect their markets and economy – not fair trade conditions. It takes a larger European Consortium – the EU – to get the best deal or start a trade war. Doing it back. Putting up tarriffs and trade barriers to protect EU markets.
Individual countries are not so fairly entertained because the level of the trade is by comparison is not so significant or necessary. The goods can be obtained elsewhere or the goods can just not be traded becaused of a higher price caused by the tarriffs or barriers.
The US companies/multinationals especially prey on the Britsh economy because of the shared language. Westminster members not enforcing the tax Laws so they and their associates can tax evade doesn’t help.
#Robert J. Sutherland @ 8:24 am
“A more realistic solution might be confederation, where each of Scotland, England, Wales and N.I. had similar devolved legislatures, together with some arrangement for agreeing common matters.”
……………………………………………….
Perhaps, THAT is the post-Brexit ‘Plan’?
The Full Fiscal Autonomy route?
Every power devolved to Scotland, except Foreign Affairs and Defence.
A post-Brexit ‘Plan’ to keep the parts of the ‘UK’ that voted ‘Remain’ a part of the ‘UK’, and a part of the EU?
A post-Brexit ‘Plan’ to create a confederation of sovereign states of the ‘UK’ that is similar to the confederation of sovereign states of the EU?
link to en.wikipedia.org
The 2nd Indy Ref question could be to ask voters to choose between, independence as part of a UK confederation or full independence?
China – ‘Scotland the land of discovery and invention’
– ‘Britain a small island of no influence or Empire’.
‘
Liz g,
You’re very welcome.
Another reason just occurred to me why federalism won’t happen, which is that one direct consequence would be that the true trade figures for Scotland would at last be accounted, something that the Unionists have always assidously striven to obscure (viz. McCrone).
Radio Scotland moments ago:
Bob West says: “Another general election might be a good thing there’s a lot of people not happy about what the SNP are doing in Scotland and that would give people a chance to change that, I’m not campaigning or anything, he says, but that’s democracy”…..iis iit?
He also mentioned about how they need to stop Scotland becoming Independent and NI joinig with the Republic
Within a year ago Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland selected their representatives
See how the Tories are managing to once again pervert democracy into just getting their own way and SNP Baad into the bargain
What’s so hilarious about this is 150.000 Tories get to redesign the entire UK at a stroke and they stand there bare faced and call it democracy
Famous15 says:
8 July, 2016 at 9:13 am
I have now come across several posters over the last month who triumphally state they have won an argument about Scotland by pointing out that their opponent lives in England,
Ruby replies
The way I see things about people who live in England who are opposed to Scottish Independence is that they are arguing for what is good for England and therefore their opinions are not of much interest.
Generally I just ignore them and put them on what I call my ‘Barbara Cartland’ list. ie authors I don’t read.
Martin Richmond is on my BC list. I kinda wish others would do likewise.
NB I differentiate between people who live in England who support Scottish Independence & those who don’t.
What I don’t come across very often which surprises me is people who argue in favour Scottish Independence for the good of England especially when it is believed that England subsidised Scotland!
“Do not wait to strike till the iron is hot; but make it hot by striking”. W.B. Yeats.
Radio Scotland caller fuming about Nicola Sturgeon ‘coronation’. He must have fallen asleep for 6 months and just woken up, doesnt realise there were elections in May, which the SNP won with Sturgeon as leader. Sometimes I despair of the human race.
Cal @ 8:41
Spot on Cal.
Sajid Javid, Minister for Business in Dehli for preliminary trade talks with India when it is against EU law for a member state to negotiate unilateral trade deals with outsiders. How classy. Is anyone really surprised?
Carry on UK, please hurry up and give the EU due cause to evict you for flouting the Laws you signed up to to pursue you own self interest, and set Article 50 to the side. You don’t even have the grace to trigger your own Article 50, but command the world to wait for your dysfunctional government to get its shoes and socks on while you scheme and cheat behind their backs.
Please Europe, remember Scotland, and do all you can to keep our membership in the transitional holding pen mooted in the media. The tether is secure. We are ready. Start your engines.
@ Nana – that NYT article is spot on. Better than anything I’ve come across here ( not that I read newspapers). Your bad mood is very productive.
The nation’s senior citizens take the gloves off. Ouch!
Out strolling with our mates.
link to youtube.com
mr thms,
I don’t think there is any post-Brexit plan! Yet. But it’s possible that one along these lines could develop. A kind of Vow-on-steroids.
If full confederation (so-called “Devo Max”) had been offered at the indyref as an alternative to full independence, as Alex Salmond very honourably offered, it almost certainly would have prevailed.
The notion was roundly opposed by the Unionists, who preferred a high-stakes game of poker that they intended would oblige them to make no concessions whatever. (How well that worked out for them!) And these are the very same people who would be selling the very option they arrogantly dismissed so recently?
However, confederation, if offered, might well still attract support from the waverers and Scot-buts despite everything. But as those of us who have moved on have realised, it fails the crucial tests of control over the very issues you mention, fiscal autonomy, defence and foreign policy, as the EUref and Chilcot Inquiry starkly reveal. It’s far, far deeper than the trivial Unionist trope of “the expense of having separate Scots currency, embassies and armed forces”.
I know in the great scheme of things it’s probably way down the list.
But haven’t seen Pet Travel mentioned anywhere in all of the campaign’s.
It would not only have repercussions for individuals but also the big Money dog shows/ breeders ect.
And I do know that assistance dog organisations were getting involved with replenishing their stock of breeding animals bloodlines,and,helping their clients to access the mainland.
Wonder if Assistance Dogs freedom to travel will also be a bargaining chip?
Or will they be given a guarantee?
Oh the irony of that …. Polish dog’s welcome in England…their children not so much.
@Capella
Can I be in your gang even though I’m not a grannie. I think there may be a run on support stockings soon once we start Yes2.
My bad mood mainly due to reading about a polish family whose garden shed was torched and a hate note posted through their letterbox.
I watched the ‘upper class twit of the year’ Python sketch, hard to differentiate between the tory halfwits in parliament.
Chunky Mark “Oh God”
link to youtube.com
Glamaig,
we’re surely missing a trick here. We should all call up Radio Shortbread with curmudgeonly attitudes in order to get chosen then make gloriously absurd anti-indy assertions on air. A kind of verbal equivalent of the recent “naked at work” protest in Belarus.
Ridicule often has more effect than any amount of serious reasoning.
@Nana
‘I’m in a bad mood’
I tend to bake when I’m in a bad mood. Right now I’m working on a fruit scone mountain forming in my kitchen cupboards.
On that accounting… Yeah, that would be interesting. A full set of accounts kept by the Scottish government in Holyrood. Now as the super devolviest nation in the history of devolved nations and of course the Tories insistence that Scots ‘take more responsibility’, wouldn’t a full accounting by our government of all of Scotland’s resources and revenue streams, historical and actual, seem a pretty responsible action?
I mean, what’s the harm right? If Scotland is a financial basket case, a full set of accounts audited by Holyrood on behalf of HMG, would merely highlight how right HMG and all those deeply serious meeja outlets were.
Seems to me that would settle an argument or two. For the life of me I can’t understand why HMG have never thought to make such a suggestion. 😉
liz Gray says:
8 July, 2016 at 10:19 am
I know in the great scheme of things it’s probably way down the list.
But haven’t seen Pet Travel mentioned anywhere in all of the campaign’s.
BBC r4 Today and BBC 24 bashing on about pet homeopathy, which is a staggering flip away from what’s actually going on UKOK Brexit.
Rancid The Graun’s Libby Carrell says that it’s Brexit and SNP voters that could save this farce union but its interesting watching how basic Leave and UKIP campaigned on Facebook for example.
Every SNP Facebook EU Remain referendum statement I saw was covered with facebook friends going “I’m an SNP member but…I want out of the EU because I want Scotland’s fishing back” kind of anger.
Almost all of these SNP members what wanted Brexit had no Facebook history or profile, and every comment had many more “likes” than pro EU comments.
Its that basic.
When (not if) REF2 takes place and Indpendence wins is there not a danger that The Guys In The Black Hats will insist that the Extra Regio area which contains all Scotland’s Oil & Gas reserves does not belong to Scotland.
I don’t know how that would pan out under International Law but if they came out with it during the campaign I have no doubt our wonderful BBC and MSM would jump on it with glee and shout it from the rooftops with the inevitable result that the same sort of gullible fools who fell for Project Fear last time would fall for it.
That was a scary nutter from The Henry Jackson Society on last night’s Brillofest. Let us not forget that this is the bunch of which our old pal Murphy proudly claims to be a member.
The only federal arrangement which might have worked is perhaps a confederation of Nation states, Scotland, Ireland, Wales and England, but if that was ever a practical possibility, it was back in the early 70’s.
McCrone saw the writing on the wall for Scotland, and troubles in Northern Ireland were kicking off. It was never going to be easy, perhaps impossible, but there should have been a big discussion about Nation status at that time. Had the UK taken the bull by the horns in the late 60’s early 70’s, incidentally before the UK joined the EEC, it’s possible a Federal Britain might have been an option, perhaps even a good option. Westminster however took the view it had to hold on to what it already “owned”, with England given top billing and the other British states mere support bands.
Federalism now is old hat. Too little too late. Westminster’s greed and asymmetric distribution of wealth and fairness over the last 40 years has sown a level of mistrust and suspicion that runs deep in the Scottish psyche, and I suspect has positively scarred that of the Irish. England is the bully in playground taking everybody’s dinner money who has gone too far and isolated themselves. They have alienated the very people who might have helped them, and they are still taking our dinner money.
@ Nana – you don’t even have to be a senior citizen – just mad as hell!
I so hope that racist incident wasn’t in Scotland. We have a lot of Polish people in our area, and Dutch and other EU citizens.
Nicola was quite right to speak out in support and Theresa May is notably wrong to use them as bargaining chips.
Chunky Mark hits nail on head too.
Re Monty Pythons “Upper Class Twit of the Year” is so apt for our times too. Who would have thought that 40+ years on we would still be ruled by these people.
a couple of links
link to politicshome.com
link to etudes-europeennes.eu
Gus,
The International Maritime Boundaries are set at UN level.
They do not include the so called ‘stolen’ bit which was essentially an UK accounting exercise and has no validity.
Pet passports, as well as livestock, meat, fruit, well everything, will all need new treaties.
German Sheherds and French Poodles will be ok, they have dual nationality. (Not my joke, alas).
I think Chunky Mark is getting close to hitting head on nail now.
@Macart Mmmm scones
@Capella I’m mad as hell for sure
link to archive.is
O/T
John Nicolson asked Rona Fairhead a very good question. Link to the committee provided in the tweet
link to twitter.com
This comments only appearing in clumps every half hour or so is ridiculous.
I thought it was a server upgrade.
I agree with Breeks that the momentum on what we..i.e. Scotland do next appears to have stalled.
Our enemies are divided, leaderless and clueless. The media,as ever are propping up the image of a stable status quo with a desperation unrivalled even during IndyRef.
The markets and the pound are plummeting yet every day soothing sophoric shite is disseminated by state megaphone.
At this rate, by the time Article 50 is activated, the whole UK will be bankrupted by these public school buffons.
We must agree as a nation that the way forward for us is to get the EU to formally accept our pleas for remaining in the EU being predicated on a separation from England
via a plebiscite for Independence.
Once this request /demand is articulated then we know where we stand.If the EU refuse to clarify our situation, then we have to move on to the next scenario.
@Lochside, 11.36
Rather than loss of momentum, is this not the lull before the storm? A lot of preparatory work is now required.
OT I am watching Daily Politics where a McTernon lookalike is insulting Jeremy Corbyn and Momentum , denigrating the leader and suggesting that the mainstream Labour Party is motivated to rid the party of Mr Corbyn one way or another.
He is happy to ignore the ordinary voter and push for Corbyn to do the “decent thing” – wonder if that party would recognise the decent thing if it sat up and bit them?
What price democracy eh?
If Martin Richmond is the person in the post at 4.02 –
How fucking dare you, as a civil.servant, paid from the public purse, come here spouting your shit, to undermine the public that pay your wages.
What is wrong with you? No integrity to do the job of serving the public, you come on here to denigrate.
Fuck off
@Martin Richmond says: 8 July, 2016 at 12:05 am:
“I sympathise with your time and technical challenges. Perhaps internet blogs aren’t the best source of information for you.”
There you go again with your preconceived claims and absolutely no evidence whatsoever. Whatever gave you the idea I only get my information from internet blogs?
Matter of fact my main source of information comes from international News Agencies. That’s the same news agencies that the Westminster Establishment Propaganda Wing get the news from that they then selectively choose to distort, lie about and generally, “spin”, in order to mislead the United Kingdom’s electorate.
Where I do NOT get any news whatsoever is from the BBC and the UK’s media. I strongly recommend you attempt doing the same. You may then have a more balanced and less biased view of matters.
@Martin Richmond says: 8 July, 2016 at 12:48 am:
“I think I see now why there is such paucity of debate here. For all your bluster, not one of you (least of all the author) has even attempted to challenge my point with other than insult or pejorative”
Excuse me for being so dim but I did not observe any points in the comments from you. Perhaps you may explain again what the points were?
You only accused, wrongly, the author of the article of telling lies. The fact is that the article contained cites and references to other articles that quoted, verbatim, what the persons the author was commenting upon had actually said or done.
We are now back in full on Projrct Fear, so please do not feed the trolls! Feeding them not only encourages them but also allows them to set the agenda.
We have never had such an opportunity as now, with both Westminster “Government” and “Labour Opposition” in disarray, so let’s just keep on making the positive case for iScotland.
Robert,
If you can’t access the links, how can you possibly know that they corroborate the article? The fact is that they don’t. I’m very happy with the record above. I only came to point out facts, what you choose to do with them is your own affair, and rightly so.
Good luck.
Loss of Momentum – various posters:
Can’t hold Indyref2 until NS gets the go ahead from DC and if he doesn’t give it before he trots off then it could be a while, don’t see it being top of May’s or Leadsom’s list.
Federalism? No Way, No How! We should stay away from this and say why – BEFORE – they start on it. I also think that the EU situation should be kept bubbling along but that the actual Indyref2 question should be the same as the last time. No ‘double’ questions, no mention of EU/FFA/DevoMax – they just cause confusion.
All these ‘I’m for SNP/Independence BUT.. ‘ somebody was talking about/posted a link to Bots – all too techy for me but it sounds like this may be what’s happening. Any way these people/machines can be pointed out to (genuine) others on the blog/post? Anyone remember this;
link to twitter.com
Nana – gosh Nana – calm wummin! All that baking AND still linking – takes me all my time to type! Thanks anyway.
I don’t think that Brexit will happen. Listen to the English media making a doomsday scenario for it. They are preparing folk for a vote against Brexit.
Gone will be the new cheap mobi phone connection to and from European destinations because that’s also an EU thing.
The mobile phone companies will love to get back to screwing the punter.
Do you remember the cost three years ago? They’ll be back.
Martin – why don’t you apply yourself to a blog dedicated to the welfare of your own country whether it be the misnamed Britain or other. Your country is in a hell of a mess and I’m sure would benefit from your eloquently phrased words of wisdom. The deception and misinformation thrown out by the media is responsible for the misapprehensions held by many in England, about Scotland and the rest of the world. Help them out – you know you want to!
@Liz Rannoch
Macart is baking, not me. If you ask nicely he might ask you round for tea?
Totally O/T .Just returned from a visit to Mallaig. Its funny the further away you get from Glasgow, the more Union Flags you see….
The Harbour at Mallaig is dominated by one of the largest Union Flags (no Saltires about) I’ve ever seen……….
Now why do you think that is ?????????????????
First thing I said after Brexit was there would be a Brexit 2 as soon as rUK woke up to their stupidity. I can’t lie, things haven’t unfolded in a way I expected them to, but I still think that initial instinct will ultimately prove correct.
Unless we get moving, there is a growing prospect of an Indyref 2 campaign running parallel with a Brexit 2 campaign, and if Article 50 has been triggered, the campaigns could be sitting on top of each other. Brexit might even monster our Indyref campaign as leverage for a remain vote. We need to get YES 2 in our diaries and go for it.
Article 50 needs triggered soonest, or a deadline declared. As demand for Brexit 2 is pushed by Remain and gathers momentum, it will lead to uncertainty and procrastination in some of the YES 2 undecideds.
Brexit is a done deal with momentum to undo it which can only grow. Why isn’t our Indyref the same done deal with momentum growing to see it completed?
I don’t ask on the back of impatience, but we are giving the forces who would obstruct Scottish independence time and opportunity to regroup, but I don’t see any benefit for ourselves in waiting.
slightly O/T but I don’t know how many of you might be interested in this “initial” exchange I had with the Europe Direct Contact Centre regarding my EU citizenship. As I expected they very skilfully avoid any direct comment on my main point about possible infringement of my human rights if my EU citizenship were to be removed against my will through the actions of another country. (England) despite my country (Scotland) voting in favour of continued citizenship and merely reiterated what I already knew. As an individual you can often feel helpless in such matters. However, if enough of us expressed similar views and concerns in sufficient numbers directly to the EU at least they would be aware of the deeply held views of the majority of voters in Scotland and it might help influence and substantiate the goodwill we in Scotland currently enjoy in the EU. It only takes a couple of minutes to email them and as I say it’s just the opening salvo as such…anyway, here’s the exchange so far:
Dear Mr MachAonghais,
Thank you for your message.
EU Citizenship is conferred directly on every EU citizen by the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU (TFEU). According to Article 20 TFEU any person who holds the nationality of an EU Member State is automatically also an EU citizen. EU Citizenship is additional to and does not replace national citizenship. It is for each EU Member State to lay down the conditions for the acquisition and loss of nationality of that Member State.
As long as the UK is a member of the EU, EU law applies to and within the United Kingdom, both when it comes to rights and obligations, including the rights of EU citizenship.
At present, the British government has not notified the European Council of the UK’s intention to withdraw from the Union pursuant to Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU).
The Commission cannot comment on the possible outcome of such a process.
——————————————————
EU Citizenship
As a Scot I currently have EU citizenship. If the UK decides to exit the EU will I be forced to lose my current EU citizenship or as my country Scotland voted to remain in the EU will I be able to retain my EU citizenship status. Can I be forced against my will to lose my EU citizenship due to the actions of another country (England) or would such an act be an infringement of my human rights?
Thank you in advance,
Craig MachAonghais
Scottish and European
With kind regards,
EUROPE DIRECT Contact Centre
http://europa.eu – your shortcut to the EU!
Disclaimer Please note that the information provided by EUROPE DIRECT is not legally binding.
We would like to ask you 4 questions about the information provided by Europe Direct. It should not take you more than 3 minutes to complete this survey –
link to forms.communi-k.eu
Not sure you thought this one through Euan:
euan0709 says:
8 July, 2016 at 2:33 pm
Totally O/T .Just returned from a visit to Mallaig. Its funny the further away you get from Glasgow, the more Union Flags you see….
You must have missed the flag waving, traditional folk singing and pavement dancing in Glasgow in celebration of the Queen’s eleven on 21st May 2016. There are plenty of union flags on display in Glasgow at all times. Also, as the time of year gets to marching season (as opposed to grouse shooting season), if you are in the right place at the wrong time, you will be able to witness union flags being paraded in many towns across central Scotland, including Glasgow, with some musical accompaniment and synchronised walking away.
@euan0709
Not sure if that’s a serious question, but it’s tourist season, you’ll see the union flag all over Scotland. Some hotels guest houses, you’ll see flags of residents, including even the English flg. Used to be 52% of tourists to Scotland were from England, no idea what the ratio is now.
On the other hand Mallaig is a fishing harbour, as well as the ferries.
@ Euan0709 says at 2:33 pm …. ”Totally O/T .Just returned from a visit to Mallaig. Its funny the further away you get from Glasgow, the more Union Flags you see…. The Harbour at Mallaig is dominated by one of the largest Union Flags (no Saltires about) I’ve ever seen……….Now why do you think that is ?????????????????”
Well Scotland is being TOTALLY OVER-RUN by rUKers Euan and the Scots should WAKEN up to that fact, ASAP. One can check out the statistics online which will tell us so. On the other-hand you just have to listen to the news now. Nine out of ten accents of those being interviewed on STV or BBC news are very obviously English.
Take note of Wales: Wales will NEVER get its Independence now due to MANY English people moving over their border. Will the daftest of Scots not waken up to this: what’s actually going on?
What really p*sses me off is that most of these people don’t want to live in England at all. WHY? Let’s ask them WHY. However they seem to make the most of the freebies they get here: Low house prices, free prescriptions, home care and so on.
They then take over local Councils, community councils and rule the roost … make sure that the Union Jack is flying high right in our faces. Roll on Independence and the removal of such flags.
Petra@4.40
That’s an important issue too delicate and up-pc to be discussed it seems. It undoubtedly contributed to us losing
Indyref 1. Don’t know how we can get round it without looking conniving, bigoted and trying to fix things to our own advantage if we ruled that only Scots-born could vote in a second referendum. That would exclude European migrants too.
[…] For slightly more serious satire as we move to what Scotland can learn from all of this, I urge you to read the latest Wings Over Scotland gem asking several questions about the future: WILL BRITAIN ACTUALLY LEAVE THE EU? – WILL THERE BE A SECOND EU REFERENDUM? – WHO WILL BE THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER? – WILL THERE BE A GENERAL ELECTION BEFORE 2020? – WILL THERE BE A LABOUR LEADERSHIP CONTEST? – WILL THE LABOUR PARTY SPLIT? – WILL THERE BE A SECOND INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM? … the answer to all being “Nobody Knows!” link to wingsoverscotland.com […]
Can we not just give Nicola the Scottish scepter. She can the touch the act of union with it and we will be free. Reverse magic. She won’t even need the magic hat.
caught this by chance.
BBC Parliament.
Think it was from the 5 th of July.
UK economic relationship with the EU.
Cross party MPs with real experts talking about the UK exit.
Basically what they said is the UK is fucked and Scotland will have to be independent to stay in the EU.
Sorry no link but it really should be watched.
What the hell is the ‘Labour Party’? Please talk in layman’s terms about fictional things that you made up. Thanks.