Thoughts on the latest Ashcroft polls
Posted on
April 17, 2015 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
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A tall tale
Wee Books
Video
Probably a robbery
Transphobia
We lost our country to ProjectFear BBC style. The only way is up.
I know, I know …. but tonight I smile and tomorrow we get out chap doors and canvass our bahookies aff!
(Polls here.) Precisely,bro.
If there was a God, all we could do is hope that she helps these figures carry thro0ugh to 7th May.
No complacency here Stuart.
Postal vote fraud still gives me nerves.
No idea what bahookies are but I’m sure you guys will be doing that until 10pm on election night. Labour are finished in Scotland.
They might live on for Scottish elections but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a Scottish Unionist Party formed ahead of the next general election. Assuming you guys aren’t already free of London rule by then. Hail Alba.
The race isn’t won yet.
We’ve kind of been here before, with the prereferendum euphoria; followed by the mother of all downers.
The SNP will take a shed load of seats but, no counting of chickens before they are hatched.
Still, the polls are a heartening read.
Vote SNP,give Scotland a voice.
No sitting on laurels – get out there.
Yup. Point taken. As Nicola says, “hard graft and humility” is what is needed. No letting up!
The bookies odds are accelerating, and the Labour freefall is spreading – panic appears to have set in.
These figures show the shift since I last posted details on the previous thread, at 5.41:
Prices offered for Labour win in –
Ed South was 11/10, now 7/4
Glas East was 5/2, now 5/1
Glas SW was 7/1, now 8/1
Paisley 7 Ren Sth was 2/1, now 11/4
North Ayrshire & Arran was 7/2, now 10/1 (!!)
Ayshire Central was 6/5, now 5/2
Renfrew East unchanged at 11/10
NB – these are how the odds have shifted in less than three hours.
Yep, always always look behind you…
Aye, we must try harder, just to make sure!.
For we can take em all,including D Mundal’s.
I know we all keep saying that these are just opinion polls and we should not get ahead of ourselves. However. all these opinion polls have been saying more or less the same thing ever since 19th September last year.
We still have around 20 days to go but I for one just can not see any way that the S.N.P. will let these poll results showing around 50 seats for them slip away.
Being the village idiot I am ever the optimist and want 59 S.N.P. seats on May 8th … no don’t laugh … please … don’t laugh. 😉
Realistically I know, drip of a tear, we won’t achieve the 59 seat total but boy can you imagine the ecstasy throughout Scotland if we did achieve 59 seats and the flood of tears Dan Suff. 🙂
Personally, the best piece of news from these polls concerns wee forlorn Fluffy … he is OUT! We just have to keep going and with luck we will see Emma’s current 2% advantage INCREASE between now and May 7th. 😀
Inverclyde stills stands on a knife’s edge, even after all these polls. Much like the referendum, it might well be a photo finish.
Whoever wins, it’s going to be a fight to the finish.
Rev,
That video, contains a clear.message to all S.N.P. activists, better than any words of warnings.
Watch out for some industrial scale vote rigging
Of course the only poll that matters is 07/05/15.
So until the end assume nothing. Get out and fight every seat like the underdog. Raise the profile, spread the facts and don’t stop to draw breath until 10pm on the 7th.
We can do this but NOT by sitting back and gloating and believing it’s a done deal and in the bag.
Those polls are quite unbelievable. I remember when we were lucky to get in double figures years ago. In 1983 the SNP polled 9% at the beginning of the General Election then it dropped down to 7% before bouncing back up to 13% and on election day just short of 12%.
Rest assured, we are campaigning hard like we are neck and neck and the level of campaigning on the ground is on another level completely to anything that has gone before for a westmisnter general election.
Most of the SNP activists I know are hopeful for 35-40.
We get that we’ll be absolutely delighted. Anything above that will be simply incredible. 😀
The key thing is that more and more people are helping out because they don’t want to spend the next five years regretting they didn’t. With a wee bit over two weeks to go it’s not as if we have to keep it up for that long anyway. The finish line is indeed in sight and now is the time to put as much work in as we possibly can to ensure the best possible result.
And for those of a more discerning confabulation…
“There’s many a slip twixt the cup and the lip”
According to the poll, the SNP have a 21% lead against Labour in Ian Davidson’s constituency.
Wasn’t it previously thought that Ian Davidson and Willy Bain would be the only Labour MPs holding onto their seats?
Subject to what weapons of mass destruction are used against us in the next three weeks, 59 SNP MPs now seems to be within reach.
But we must remain vigilant until, and especially after, the polls have closed.
Just watched the Channel 4 news bulletin on Yes NHS facebook 🙂
Shove your f****** Labour up your a*** 😀
link to facebook.com
Lord Ashcroft says at the beginning of his opinion poll report:
For each constituency, results were weighted to be representative of all adults living in the constituency. Results are weighted by recalled past vote at the last general election and stated likelihood to turn out at the next. A proportion of those who don’t know or refuse to say how they will vote are re-allocated to the party they voted for at the 2010 general election. Full data tables are available at http://www.LordAshcroftPolls.com.
Interestingly he allocates people to the parties they voted for in 2010 if they claim they Don’t Know how they are going to vote on May 7th or refuse to say. I say interestingly because I know from canvassing that our local S.N.P. teams have carried out there are quite a few Labour voters AND Lib Dem voters who have told our canvassers that they intend voting S.N.P. on May 7th.
I think by allocating respondants as he has done is the only thing Lord Ashcroft can do. However, it does leave a question mark over the results because I think the results, if anything, would point towards a wider battle between the S.N.P. and the Tories than it actually is. I believe more than a few of the non repondants/Don’t Knows will actually vote S.N.P. but are not prepared to say. 😀
Yeah, Rev’s right to sound a note of caution, but put yourself in the shoes of a SLab apparatchik right now…
If you have any serious aspirations for a career in politics, or require affiliation to a party for whatever reason, at what point do you jump when it’s clear that the boat you happen to be in is sinking?
A rogue poll is one thing. Dodgy fluctuations in odds offered is another. But both simultaneously? Nah…
This afternoon, Labour was odds-on favourite to retain Glasgow South-West, at 8/11. It’s now 8/1. You would only see odds on a horse shift like that if its arse fell off, and that’s what’s happened to Slab.
Quelle effing dommage, eh?
We’re in with a shout in every seat.Lots of work required to turn these intentions into actual votes,though.Only the SNP will stick up for Scotland.
The SNPs biggest problem will be tactical voting by Unionists.
In their literature and on the doorsteps, all candidates need to counteract this by pointing out that unlike Labour we support a fairer voting system for Westminster elections that would allow Lib Dems, Greens, SSP and even Tories to get fair representation rather than the current first past the post takes all system.
Katie Hopkins
I know she makes her money being controversal but this is well beyond that.
The Sun
Make no mistake, these migrants are like cockroaches. They might look a bit “Bob Geldof’s Ethiopia circa 1984”, but they are built to survive a nuclear bomb. They are survivors.
Ah defy anybody tae disagree wie me, DimJim would beat anybody in ah wan man race,he wiz jist getting intae his stride on the uphill section, noo its doonhill,an ma monies oan DimJim.
Somewhere 2 Pandas are preparing for a new twist on an old joke
Dont let the Oandas done folks!
Look folks, get out there campaigning. TNS was reporting that 29% were still undecided. Even now! Even after the SNP surge, the lies, the austerity, the numpties still couldn’t plump definitely for the SNP. That means they still secretly favour Labour and could still turnup in grey silent droves to do their worst at the ballot box unless we stop them.
Rev Stuart is working his socks off. Much appreciated.
link to caltonjock.com
Well I for one will be chapping the fuck out of those doors all weekend – we’ve not had any polls for Aberdeen North or South so no complacency here!
One thing that sums up Scottish Labour Campaign genius…launching your manifesto on a Friday…great way to maximise coverage and exposure..NOT!
Sage advice from Stu. Plenty material to get out there and conversations to be had. For many people the election process is just kicking off so the next few weeks are the time to really engage.
What amazes me is how absurd the Electoral system is, and how undemocratic. I voted for AV a few years ago – how many of the hand-wringing unionists voted No in that election? Aye – they fucked that one right up did they no?
I know, I know… and the video is perfect to illustrate the danger.
There will be greater emphasis on the two party system in the run in, both from them and the msm. The polarising effect may be to reduce the figures in this great poll.
We need to deploy our greatest weapon in the run in more and more………..
…Murphy get yer skinny arse back on the telly.
A timely warning to all. We’ve been here before and no-one can take their eye off the ball.If you can, get involved in some way in the next 20 days, our country’s destination depends on it.
The Unionist Parties, and Labour in particular are capable of anything.I remain concerned at the meeting between Ashcroft and Dougie Alexander.
Remember nothing is won until the Returning Officer declares the result!
No chance in East Renfrewshire of easing up, tomoorow morning a Mass Canvas 10.30 am Asda Car Park Newton Mearns.
In Barrhead a street stall and 400 personal letters to SNP voters from candidate.
Sunday throughout the constituency canvas and leaflet teams out in force.
We now have the foot on Murphy’s throat we will not ease up.
desimond says:
17 April, 2015 at 9:06 pm
Somewhere 2 Pandas are preparing for a new twist on an old joke
Dont let the Oandas done folks
My partner made one: soon there will be one labour panda and one tory panda. Look on the bright side: they will definitely breed true 🙂
I think there’s going to be a lot of early celebrating.
To recap: Labour have delivered about 5 leaflets in Leith to the SNP’s 2.
We have seen very few SNP people here, aren’t there meant to be 100k somewhere ?
OT Brent crude today is up to $64/barrel. It has risen 27% since January. This Is just part of the normal market fluctuations which can be easily accommodated with a Scottish oil fund, as any normal oil producing country would have.
The doomsayers delighted in the fall in oil prices as if it was our only asset. Now the oil price is rising again they are notably quiet.
Ian Brotherhood
Thanks to your post a few days back I have been following odds checker for my own manor Edinburgh North & Leith. Labour have slid from odds on favourites to 10/3. The best price on the SNP days ago was 2/1 (I think Tuesday) and they are now 6/5. In 3 days!
I think Chucka Ummuna’s name is going to enter the political lexicon, to represent the moment when someone throws a colleague under the bus. ‘That **** in accounts did an Ummuna on me’. Or not. Jim won’t forget that moment in a hurry.
A guy from work asked me yesterday (and you will appreciate this Ian): “they had the hale country tae pick from, the hale length o Scotland tae choose, and that is the best they could come up with?” Followed by a volley of expletives.
Hi rev,doing a greeatt job,love the comments,funny but always,truthfully,that’s a great gift,keep it up.!!
link to facebook.com
Cmon people lets show BBC we,re still on their case.
[…] Thoughts on the latest Ashcroft polls […]
Ref Ian Brotherhood been canvassing in Saltcoats,WestKilbride and must agree with odds of 10/1 for Labour win.Also they know they are losing they are getting more abusive and you can smell the fear.
I believe Tory(!) Lord(!) Ashcroft about as far as I could throw him.
As Stu points out here, there’s still much work to do.
Get chappin’!
I think that the red tories might be starting to rethink their opposition to PR voting. It clearly isn’t working in their favour anymore!
Possibly the blue ones as well.
Alex Salmond being appointed the leadership of the SNP the second time was an inspired decision.
Appointing Nicola as his successor was a master stroke.
@Tam J and Kevin M –
Glad to know someone else is keeping tabs on this. Maybe I’m just getting over-excited because it’s Friday (which means it’s Lambrini time) but I can’t stop going back to check. It’s like when the WOS fundraiser is on, watching the clicker…
Even since I last posted stats (what, just over an hour and a half ago?) there has been movement. Most have remained as they were, but bookies clearly don’t ‘do’ weekends – Donohoe is now 11/5 to keep his seat, from being 8/11 fav this morning. Strangely, the Morphling is still 11/10 (after being 4/9 yesterday) and has maintained the slenderest possible ‘favourite’ status (against a 5/4 SNP opponent who was 9/4 on Monday. On that day, Murph was 4/9) whilst his comrades become outsiders.
Does The Morph have a sugar daddy who can’t bear to see him being humiliated? Could it perchance be the same Better Together ‘punter’ who went into city-centre bookmakers’ around this time last year and staked the best part of a quarter-mill on a No win?
The plot thickens…
I remember the guy who bet hundreds of thousands against a yes vote in the referendum saying that the polls always close by eight points more than they show when people actually vote.
Always something I keep in mind now as he seemed to have done his homework.
On another wee note, Ronnie @9.31
Tell me please if this is a BBC demo being arranged, that it’s not on a bloody empty building Sunday.
Please, please can we have a George Square Saturday demo for once.
My understanding is that if you have a static demonstration in a public place, you don’t need permission. But that could be duff info.
Is the extent of a Labour MPs current majority of much relevance anymore?Is Willie Bain every bit as much at risk as someone with a much smaller majority? Is there any reason to say his seat is safer than Douglas Alexander?
I’m seriously worried after reading these polls
Cos ma dad was a labour man…..
Ma grandfather was a labour man…..
Ma great grandfather was a labour man…..
Aye right GIRFUY
It’s boring, but the only poll that matters is on the 7th May. That having been said, however, I had expected some narrowing by now, otherwise how are they going to be able to explain the remarkable comeback when the postal votes are in?
Dirty tricks? I wouldn’t suggest a thing, but who is monitoring the PV process?
ITV News pushing tactical voting in Scotland.
While we’re on odds-related stuff, here’s The Pogues celebrating a 25/1 win on a horse whose name perfectly encapsulates the SLab GE manifesto:
The Pogues, ‘Bottle Of Smoke’ –
link to youtube.com
Radio 5 live tonight in Dundee.
4 politicians in someone’s hoose. Oh Shona Robinson is on for SNP
Just about to start. You can listen and surf.
Paula Rose..! ??
ronnie anderson says:
link to facebook.com
Cmon people lets show BBC we,re still on their case.
___________
Is this one going to take place?
Some of us repeatedly promoted the last one at every opportunity only for it to be called off 2 days before the actual event and most of us still haven’t been given a reason why it was cancelled.
Stoker
Wasn’t the plan to hold it on Mothers Day? I can’t see that many people would have wanted to attend a demo on that day.
Nicola doing a grand job. What an exceptional politician and stateswoman.
Let’s make sure we get out there and do what we can to help her have the voice she deserves in this shithole of a union.
Can’t see how they could manage to spin fiddling these kind of polls other than contacting the dead … aye i know.
Slightly O/T Emma Harper is the SNP candidate for David Mundells seat here in D,C and Tweedale, and if you want to support her, keep in touch through facebook and yesmoffat and help canvass and leaflet, it’s a massive area for us to cover with her!
Let us not overlook the possibility that even if we get over 50 SNP MP,s on the 8th there is also a chance that the Tories and their allies (DUP,LibDem and UKIP) could obtain an overall majority and form the next government. Thus far I have not heard of an SNP strategy should that happen. I hope they have one. UDI springs to mind but it will not be that simple so do not uncork the bottles yet. A stormy time lies ahead.
Alastair 10.08
There’s no doubt the MSM will do all they can to push tactical voting.So far,I’m not seeing much sign of it round the doors.I really don’t think there is enough general hatred of the SNP among people of other political persuasion for it to make a difference in most seats.Id also suggest that if people start thinking of voting for someone other than their usual choice,they might be just as likely to vote tactically for the SNP because,all though they don’t believe in independence they know this election isn’t about independence and they know the SNP will stick up for Scotland.And half of them really like Nicola.I hope I’m making sense.
Well done the guys in East Ren they are working their little socks off, from the pics on FB. John Swinney opened their shop, and there was a great crowd.
The branches are working like crazy, driven by the branch officers.
I was at a hustings tonight, a bit lack lustre, but we had a good laugh at the Tory who turned up (Cumbernauld) and informed us the country voted No, we responded “We didn’t”.
Lots of scare mongering from the Tory and Gregg McClymont about the Russians, hence we need Trident -honestly!
I have been worrying about that too. Canvass in many areas is finishing – how to keep the momentum going over 3 weeks of intensive MSM blagardery?
Stoker
‘Is this one going to take place’
At 6 o’clock in the morning? Unlikely.
Look the 59 Westminster seats are their for the taking, if their was one good thing to come out of the referendum it was the people of Scotland finally saw the labour party and the rest of the unionist’s for what they really are.
A bunch of self interested troughers.
Scotland actually woke up and realised what their so-called MP’s were actually standing for, it was not them it was not their country, it was their own parties and pockets.
So go out there and get those 59 seats, forget the historical majorites they are no-more.
Just in from the hustings in Gordon, a packed house and Alex Salmond on fire.
Cons and Libs in disarray.
A large proportion of the audience came off the Liberal fence tonight.
Looking good.
MJack says:
Slightly O/T Emma Harper is the SNP candidate for David Mundells seat here in D,C and Tweedale, and if you want to support her, keep in touch through facebook and yesmoffat and help canvass and leaflet, it’s a massive area for us to cover with her!
Everything I’m hearing so far MJ is that things are going OUR way. Hell even little old ladies are inving Emma in for cups of tea and as she leaves asking for a “Vote Emma” badge! 🙂
Annan branch were round my area the other night canvassing and they picked up a couple of Labour supporters and a Lib Dem supporter from the court I live in (35 houses/flats).
PLEASE, if you know anyone who lived in Scotland within the last 15 years but who now lives abroad, talk to them. If you think they would vote SNP make sure they are registered to vote in this election as an overseas voter. If they aren’t registered, get them to register. Every vote matters
Tory Lord Ashcroft – not exactly a neutral pollster. Great if these figures are true but I don’t trust them.
@ Lollysmum (10.19pm).
Yes, that was the plan but it was pointed out several weeks prior to it taking place that that Sunday was Mothering Sunday but they still promoted it right up until 2 days prior before cancelling.
And according to the then facebook statistics there was something like 800 going and 200 maybes.
The last thing i remember reading about it was someone saying the reason for the cancellation was “complicated” and i’ve heard nor seen anything since.
A lot of people made plans to come long distances, myself included, so some sort of explanation would have been nice instead of being left in the dark.
🙁
This must be a mistake::
Paddy Power have SNP @ 1/10 to win Rutherglen & Hamilton West, with Labour’s Tom Greatrex at 5/1
21,000 Lab majority in 2010
If this is right, the thing’s going mad – but other bookies have Lab as favourites, so it DOES look like an error
Doing some telephone canvasing in London at the weekend so I’m doing my bit.
ronnie anderson says:
17 April, 2015 at 9:31 pm
link to facebook.com
Cmon people lets show BBC we,re still on their case.
.
Ronnie these BBC demonstrations have proved counter productive in the past so let’s leave them until after the election.
let’s not shoot ourselves in the foot when we are doing well.
Although any protests at the BBC are justified they will only be twisted and will just provide the MSM to portray it as a SNP rent a mob threatening poor innocent BBC employees.
Nothing to be gained from mass protests at this point.
.
Deputy Dugdale on Newsnight spouting embaressing guff
Croomp. that video was magic. 🙂 Go Glasgow. Go SNP.
Rev that video was tragic. What an epic failure . I was cringing watching it.
And we’re not getting too far ahead. As L.A. has already said this has been continuing since Sept. I am enjoying this sooo much. A little revenge and a lot of relief that Scotland has started to fight back.
And Ian gives us a big cheer with the bookies odds. These guys are rarely wrong on these things . They got the ref bang on. Their odds are “astonishing” ( sorry couldn’t help myself) It’s too late .
Enjoy the ride folks .We certainly deserve some fun.
Nicola Sturgeon Q&A | Watch SNP Leader Live
I have to agree with some other posters, what is the point of a demo at PQ, the best action is to ignore, and work for our goal in whatever way you can.
At this point, a demo at PQ could only backfire on evil Nats.
Folks,
Just keep leafleting. Keep chapping doors. Keep chatting to family, friends and work colleagues. Ignore the polls. Polls can be manipulated. And we all know that this British Establishment will do everything to protect itself.
For this is the Establishment we are fighting here. Make no bones about it. This isn’t about the Tory Party, the Labour Party or the other parties that we are taking on here. This is really about the highest tier in Britain that we battling here.
They threw the kitchen sink at us in those last 10 days of the Referendum. And they won it by the skin of their teeth. The ‘Yes’ movement shook them to the core.
They are now doing it again. But this time, for them, this is worse …far, far worse.
Before, it was just 5 million Scots whom they believed that they could manipulate, defeat, and place back in the box.
As we all know now …that didn’t quite happen.
This time, it’s about the 50 million who reside in England.
What terrifies them is the ‘Yes’ ideology entering every home in England. It is the fear of what happens if most of the English electorate begin to ask some serious questions; …on how the state operates; on how the economy works; how the debt works; how money is spent on services …and how the money disappears into the coffers of the Establishment.
What terrifies them is the English electorate awakening and realising that they have been made fools of for the last 40 odd years.
The Establishment have watched Nicola Sturgeon court the English electorate, and they are in a sheer panic to see that many of the electorate are interested in hearing what she has to say.
They have tried to blacken the SNP as a party that is almost borderline terrorist. They have portrayed Nicola Sturgeon as the most dangerous woman in Britain. They continue to hold up Alex Salmond as a modern day bogeyman. They perpetrate that the Scottish nation as subsidised ‘region’ of the UK. This is happening every day in the newspapers and the mainstream news channels on TV. It is incessant.
All of this to stop the ‘Yes’ ideology entering England and awakening a sleeping giant.
That is why we just keep leafleting. Keep chapping doors. Keep chatting to family, friends and work colleagues. We try and get the SNP into these supposed hallowed corridors of Westminster and Whitehall. Once there, not only can change come, but it also allows the SNP to see the books. The books that we are not allowed to see.
Ignore the polls. Nothing has been won yet. But we might be on the verge of doing something that has not been done before, and who knows what avenues it may open up.
Dugdale is really cringing, even the BBC interviewer having problems trying to get sense out of her
Is this what Labour have come to that they can only put up Dugdale to represent Labour in Scotland
By the way she is sitting in a darkened Holyrood! Could they not use Pacific Quay?
Jackie bird still pushing the slab message from pacific quay tonight in the
late bulletin with “messages” from murphy and kezia.nicola’s clip “cut off” convienently.
perhaps jackie should “get the message” that nicola is a “bigger name” than her on both a Scottish and UK stage now if she is considering her usual “sneer” at our First Minister (aka AlexSalmond), if she ever gets the opportunity with our current FM.
Kezia could be excellent if she spoke for a party with integrity, her problem is her party not her competency – I thought she did very well considering she was trying to positively spin Labour Party in Scotland’s situation
Last September Scotland walked towards the door to Independence, but was mugged by Westminster and the British state before reaching it.
We now have two choices, to either stay down or get back up and open that door.
The 7th of May, stand up, or stay down, the choice is ours.
The referendum outcome, ignoring the postal vote which I believe was hopelessly compromised was (my calculations) Yes: 50.20% No: 48.80%. I conjecture this is the reason the SNP is so high in the polls. We Wuz Robbed!!
I was just looking at the BBC Scotland website, interested to see what they had to say about the Ashcroft poll. Not a mentio so far….
I agree with Davy “go out there and get those 59 seats, forget the historical majorities – they are no-more”.
I can hardly believe the tipping point has come so quickly and can only repeat what so many of you Wingers have already said –
Encourage registration, keep on canvassing to the end and on the DAY make sure all those SNP supporters get to the polling stations and vote
Remember – Scotland is making history with this election, much more so than with the referendum but without the referendum campaigning this would never have happened.
So seize the moment Scotland –
” There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures”.
No matter the result of the GE, Scotland has been rescued from oblivion. The combination of the hard work of a very large number of people from all walks of life and the recent major bonus which is Nicola, has made an even larger number of people begin to believe in themselves. It is that which will lead to a Scotland that can stand up for itself.
No matter the outcome in May we all have to be back here, ready and raring to go, to embark on the next phase of Scotland’s enlightenment. We owe it to ourselves, our children and our grand children. Like Bruce and that spider we must never give up, whatever obstacles we face, until the sovereignty of Scotland’s people is inalienable.
i imagine ALL at BBC Pacific Quay will be imploding at the same rate as Slab…they are on the way out 🙂
Remember that gut wrenching hollowed out feeling on the 19th September 2014? I NEVER want to feel that again and I’m certain I’m not alone. Cheering though these polls are do not trust them for one millisecond. We have worked long and hard to get to where we are now. Imagine if the “French letter” had come out on voting day with no time for Nicola to denounce it. Imagine the last minute damage it could have done. I have no doubt there is some dirty trick locked up and waiting to be released. We have to be in such a commanding lead that no amount of last minute trickery will derail us. The only way we can achieve that is by working hard, like we have been doing, right up until the end.
Graeme Doig wrote:
“At 6 o’clock in the morning? Unlikely.”
Good to see you posting again, Graeme, hope all is well.
Nah, i made that mistake also.
According to the boss, she says that’s the weather forecast time slot and she got a facebook prompt which states 2pm kick-off.
Thank feck we have wimmin tae keep us right, eh!
😉
Still out chapping doors and stalls in east lothian,for George Kerevan.
Havent had a poll for eastlothian so not sure what to expect,SNP came fourth in 2010,but canvass returns for my bit Musselburgh looking good so far!
We will be working hard for this though,and anyone who fancys a night out this sunday: 7.30 pm at Ravelston house hotel,SNP musselburgh fundraiser(donations on door) bands,comedy and debates until 10ish.
Come one come all!
@JLT (10.56) –
Oooh, do I like that. I like that a lot.
Hear, hear indeed.
Even Brian Wilson is panicking in The Hootsman
link to archive.today
JayR says: “PLEASE, if you know anyone who lived in Scotland within the last 15 years but who now lives abroad, talk to them. If you think they would vote SNP make sure they are registered to vote in this election as an overseas voter. If they aren’t registered, get them to register. Every vote matters.”
I am not sure how that is done, because I believe you have to provide a post code and be linked to an address, so what if you do not have a property in Scotland to own/rent anymore?
With Scottish MPs outvoted by 11 to 1 at Westminster this is a once in a generation opportunity for our nation to have some influence at Westminster.
Don’t blow it by thinking someone else will knock on doors and deliver leaflets.
Despite the polls showing the SNP as the third force in UK politics the BBC have given UKIP a platform in the last “Nationwide” TV debate whilst we have to put up the the news where you are with Jim Murphy shouting over supine moderator and bullying the women panellists.
@Stoker
from previous thread…
I got asked for my postal address from the GAP team last week (lost due to some computer glitch?)
So book is on its way in the next few weeks – hopefully a week or two before GE15 for maximum BBC bias busting effect.
For a review of many years of G.A. Ponsonby’s analysis and reporting on the vagaries and bias of the BBC in Scotland have a look at the following link…
http://londoncallingbook.com
Stoker
Cheers mister. Don’t do the face booking. Was all set for the last one but this is too short notice unfortunately.
Been in middle of moving house and getting back to work. Just about managed to keep up wi all things Wings but had nothing intelligible to add 🙂
Murphy can never ever claim he wasn’t given fair warning of how things were likely to pan-out – here he is, making his first public appearance after accepting leadership of ‘The Scottish Labour Party’, at SLab’s Gala Dinner in the old Glasgow Central Hotel, where he and his ‘comrades’ sat down to enjoy a slap-up bash costing £250 per skull.
But he dropped-off a bag of stuff for the food-bank appeal, so he’s okay, right?:
link to youtube.com
For anyone who hasn’t seen episode 9 and 10 of season 1 Outlander: Here they are.
link to watch-tvseries.net
(ep 10 is on the wee column to the right of the screen just beneath it)
The question is Sinky, does the news from where you are come before or after the travel by BBC weather map news? 😉
link to youtube.com
link to youtube.com
I have to agree with Valerie
The bias of the BBC is obvious to anybody who looks critically at their election broadcasts but please, please do not demonstrate at PQ.
It will not change the mind of the BBC but just might tip some of the undecided into voting labour because they will not want to be seen to be tarred with the same brush as the “evil Nats” or whatever else the MSM call you on Monday morning.
Every vote will count so please postpone the demo till after the election.
apologies if this has already been posted, uploaded on youtube today.
link to youtube.com salmond impromptu q and a’s
Ian B
Ah the memories. It was a pleasure to welcome Murphy to his first wee get the gither as ‘leader’
Here’s Morphbloid, on CH4 News, approx 10 weeks ago, reacting to an Ashcroft poll. At 4 mins he says ‘These polls will change.’
Jim was right!
link to youtube.com
Let’s all remember that, “A journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step”, Laozi, Chinese Philosopher (c604BC – c531BC). So an increase of just one seat is a move forward but 30-40 would be great.
Auld Rock
Here they come, from behind. Three women that have the appalling temerity to speak in a public debate and make wet farts like Milliband and Farage look less than teamGB leadership manliness become the hydra, the Greek mythic many headed sea monster and that’s enough for progressive liberal rancid Graun. Or as my Ausie buddies say, soft cocks, soft cocks like the old gits that run rancid Graun.
link to archive.today
Thanks, Hoss, i’ll keep an eye open for that as i’ve not had any further contact from them.
_______
@ Graeme Doig.
Nah, i don’t do facebook either but the boss does.
Will not be going to this one either due to short notice and even if i could i don’t think the timing is appropriate.
After the 7th most definitely but right now i think our total focus should be on working our butts off to secure a historic victory.
The British Bullyshit Corporation will keep, for now.
😉
Had a quick look at the Guradian, election live, and it seems the Scottish DM headline is about Murphy facing losing his seat.
The good thing about polls is it can force media to publish stories it might otherwise sweep under the carpet, as otherwise it starts to look pig ignorant.
If you twitter, or just follow stuff like me, @WiffyBeans Not Scotland’s most prominent blogger 😉
I have to agree.
The thing is not one SNP activist or voter that I know is taking anything granted. If anything, these polls and Nicola being in such high profile is encouraging people to knock even more doors.
Sept 19th was an awful day for many of us. I am trying not to get ahead of myself either so naturally pessimistic about these polls.
We work our erses off, and to our Green, Socialist pals – lend us your vote and many will return the favour in 2016.
Slighty off topic, but as for Murphy! I am unsure if he will lose his seat. There are a large number of Tory voters in Eastwood (could go 3 ways – the hardcore Unionist vote for Jim to keep the SNP out, the hardcore Tory votes even SNP to keep Jim out, or they stick with the party they support).
But as for Jim. Has he shot himself in the foot by becoming ‘Scottish’ Labour leader? The polls have receeded for Labour as he’s gained power, he’s not liked, and could even lose his own seat.
Far too early to say, but let’s keep working away. Again, if anyone non SNP wants to help out be it all day/everyday, twice a week, once a week, 2 hours, one hour, 40 mins, anything or any time you have – go pop in to your local branch. The folks will be delighted to help you, and if you aint keen on chapping doors. Plenty of backroom work which will help many of the SNP activists and volunteers. They’ll be delighted to see you!
All the best folks,
@Graeme Doig (11.52) –
Yes indeed mister – ’twas a pleasant and civilised evening, and a great pleasure to meet you.
I’m sure the SLabbers inside that hotel did their level best to have a similarly pleasant evening, but it couldn’t have been easy after the reception we gave them. Ach well, never mind – way things are looking, they probably won’t ever have to do it again! 😉
Taking nothing for granted here but….Finally the British Labour party in Scotland.Hopefully I’ve got this link thingy sussed.Enjoy!!
link to m.youtube.com
@Faltduhb
Should be MSM headline. Toxic Jim on Tories leash.
testing testing
Anyone else keep getting emails from 38 degrees titled ‘shift the SNP’. Apparently concerned with safeguarding the NHS, I am asked to message my local SNP candidate about TTIP – “So let’s make sure they know: if they want our votes, they need to take a proper stand against TTIP”. What the..? Why only the SNP candidates?
Bean an tighe, 38 degrees are compromised by links to Labour. This came out when Gordzilla hijacked a petition regarding the vow, and they did nothing. Subsequent postings here showed links to Lab, but cant remember the specifics
Cos it is quite obviously pointless talking to the others?
You have four votes from the Macdiarmid family which will be hot footing it from France soon.Whats even better is our Jim’s seat we’re after.
Anyone living abroad can vote in the UK elections up to fifteen years after leaving.If you hav’nt regestered you can do it online and i believe it must be done before the 25th of this month.
The most dangerous woman in Britain the most talked about recently is totally airbrushed egnored not even on one of their stupid little background photos completely left out of the recent BBC have I got news for you series 49 episode 2 and we have this clown Prescott whose whole contribution to the show was a grunt now and then even jimbo got a mention and a funny wee photo according to them any other station would be just coincidence the BBC well it looked like mcternen was the editor on this one how f/n childish can you get it’s as if we don’t mention her she will go away ffs
Alan- yes it smells like some sort of cunning plan from Labour, as if TTIP had anything to do with the SNP! Fiona – very true.
ian says: @ 1:00 am
You have four votes from the Macdiarmid family which will be hot footing it from France soon.Whats even better is our Jim’s seat we’re after.
………… merci, bien
38 degrees? I deregistered after the fake or kidnapped Brown petition and indeed, investigation showed it had Labour origins and ongoings. I wouldn’t touch them with Murphy’s bargepole.
I have seen this before, it was recorded in 1995, with Alex Salmond debating with George(alien) Robertson. It is amazing looking back, the same fear stories,the same arguments nothing at all new from the Unionist, after all this time.
Well worth a look for a variety of solid reasons.
link to youtube.com
Hi JLT.
Good post! Congrats!
.
Hi arthur thomson.
You typed,
“Like Bruce and that spider we must never give up…”
This is a badge we’ve been doing for a wee whiley. It’s a favourite of Ronnie Anderson.
@ Taranaich 8:34pm If Inverclyde is on a Knife edge and ends in a Photo Finish I hope it is you holding the Camera. And when you Win the seat Remember. Smile. All the Bookmakers have the SNP Odds on to win that seat. Lets hope they are right. They Usually are. You don’t see many skint Bookies.
Re Overseas voters
To be eligible to vote in UK elections if you live abroad, you must not only have been resident in the UK within the last 15 years, but also have been registered to vote here.
If you were too young to register, your parent or guardian must have been registered.
The deadline for registering, regardless of where you are, in Monday 20 April – not 25 April.
Just saw Question Time, and there was this one who was absolutely appalling. Rewound and found the name and it was Swinson. I vageuly remember her as not too bad, but I guess she’s seen the Ashcroft and is in a blind mad panic.
Well, from that performance, I hope Ashcroft is right for its own sake, never mind the SNP. She was totallly obsessed and disruptive.
Totally agree with the comments about not having any kind of BBC demo as it will be used relentlessly against us, and I wouldn’t put it past certain dark forces to even try to cause trouble so near to the election. Caused by nasty nationalists of course!
Who could refute such allegations when such a demo takes place away from the public in the defacto sanitised demonstration area beside the Clyde, with only a passing cyclist or family heading to the Science Centre on a Sunday morning day out.
I do question why anyone would want to arrange this at such an important time in the election. Maybe just unthinking like me!
Hey yesindyref2
That’s my MP Jo Swinson. She was actually at my door the other night all by herself with no one else in sight.
A bit strange and silly I thought with her being a member of the British Cabinet wandering about strange houses at night all by herself.
No little helpers I suppose, being a lib dem.
I was polite to her as I told her we were SNP voters. She just smiled a lovely smile and left. Then I remembered we had paid for her teeth floss and eye makeup on expenses.
You just can’t afford to pay for these things when you are an MP / Cabinet Minister.
I feel much better that I have never voted for her now.
She does have a strong local vote here and I have never in my life had so many leaflets from her party by mail.
Must be heading for twenty from her party alone. And can you believe she is asking labour and conservative voters to LEND her their vote.
How can you bloody lend someone your vote? Does she think it’s a postal vote or something! ????
Re 38 degrees – deregister and ignore.
“Nothing to be gained from mass protests at this point.”
What Davedee says.
the points being raised by others on this site that we should defer another PQ protest is correct, we are on the brink of a historic landslide (GOD willing) and we must show we can be a responsible party in government, the protests will (hopefully) become moot anyway as you can bet you bottom dollar that one of the first demands that the SNP will have is devolved control of the national broadcaster in Scotland,
Plus offering agent provocateurs the chance to manufacture an incident would be stupidity on stilts,
No we should save our ire towards Pacific Quay till after the election, then we can provide leverage for Madam Ecosse II by turning up and making them aware were still here
link to youtube.com
Too much? 😉
Newsnight last night. First subject Deputy Dugdale mentioned with indecent haste was the Postal Votes had not been counted yet in fact they had not even been sent out yet. All her hopes seems to be hinged on all these ‘postal votes’ is this . . last days in the bunker . . or does she know something we don’t know.
David Porter BBC political correspondent advises us that ‘UK wise’ the parties are neck and neck, a hung parliament…then in a lower tone employing a graver voice reporting on the Ashcroft polls.
Melanie Ward labour, candidate for replacing Lyndsay Roy in Glenrothes, finding it difficult to inspire voters in her contribution on radio Scotland. Isobel Fraser probing all the panelists on child poverty and the minimum wage.
Eilidh Whiteford SNP candidate in Banff did not shine either but both did better than the Tory minister who “had the Scottish figures, but had not got them in front of me” ….
🙂
Scotland has approximately 1 million children , 200000 live in poverty and by 2020 that figure will jump to 300000. There are areas of pocket (often rural areas) and blanket deprivation (e.g. Glasgow 1:3 live in poverty)where the ratios differ but there are no local authorities where the figures are under 10%.
SG have introduced progressive policies to mitigate against the retrogressive welfare reform that WM are welded to and have a robust supportive early years strategy. When we look to countries that have low rates of child poverty and high rates of happiness and child well-being the international community does not look to the UK which often flounders near the bottom of league tables- it looks to the Nordic and Scandinavian countries because they understand the importance of social protection in improving life chances whilst managing to maintain their economic markets.
It is an economic miracle, you know, Phronesis !
link to en.wikipedia.org
I hope everyone takes carful note of this warning remember September,I just watched SKY news the local hustling thing they do round the country this time it was Inverness the number of non comited voters usually not for SNP in my experience but not wishing to say then there she was in her 70s with hubby in tow am no voting SNP with hubby nodding in agreement ,suddenly September flashed back the ones who stole the kids future up here they will do exactly the same again and in the last weeks Labour will pile on the usual fear it worked before don’t trust these polls
Check out 38 degrees links to the Labour Party thanks for the warning from others on here I thought there was something funny when I kept getting e/mails to pressure my SNP candidate on tipp when obviously they would be busy trying to win their seat it was always my SNP candidate that’s what gave it away please pass on bloody Labour again
Wish I was there. Good luck to the SNP from here in South Africa.Sorry Murphy returned to Scotland from here but not sorry he left here.
Greetings from Raleigh, North Carolina, where the November 2016 election campaign is about to kick off. Anyway, thinking back to last September, what really bothered me was all the people in George Square (and elsewhere no doubt) hanging about in the couple of days before the referendum. Why on earth were they not out campaigning?
I truly hope the 80,000 or so new SNP members since the referendum are doing something to change the status quo. There is absolutely no substitute for hard work, up to and through polling day. To those on the site who are doing just that, you have my eternal thanks for seeking to deliver a fairer, more prosperous Scotland.
As the saying goes ‘It aint over ’til the fat lady sings’!
There has to be a re-doubling of efforts for the SNP and their supporters to get the message out
DO NOT Rely on mainstream media. Everyone has to work 110% over the heads of the MSM to get the message over and counter the lies that Labour/Tory and the Libdems will spew forth in the coming days
Work the doors, especially wit the old folk that cant rely on the internet for the truth as they cant access it, so help them , print stuff off, show them whats really happening
Keep focused, keep working…..keep your eye on the target. Polls are only polls. a few more days to go.