The unwanted vow
We’ve done another poll in conjunction with our dear chums at Panelbase, readers, which we think will be the last full-size Scottish one before the polls open. You may already have seen their headline voting-intention stats, but if not they’re below.
Those numbers suggest, depending which electoral forecaster you feed them into, over 50 seats for the SNP. The poll delivered some extremely interesting results, but we’re going to tease you and hold most of them over until tomorrow, because it’ll actually be a really slow news day.
(September 18 last year was one of the most miserable days of our lives, and we’re not talking about the result. It just seemed to drag on forever and ever, with nothing happening until past midnight. This way there’ll at least be something to read.)
But as a little taster, here’s a fascinating info-nugget.
We reminded 1,013 respondents that the Smith Commission had delivered a series of recommendations for new powers to be given to the Scottish Parliament, including greater control of taxation and some minor welfare powers (and of course road signs). Then we asked them this:
Had the Smith Commission proposals been an option on the ballot paper in the independence referendum, how do you think you would have voted?
For no change to the way things were: 27%
For the Smith proposals: 21%
For independence: 36%
Don’t know: 13%
Wouldn’t have voted: 3%
Those figures perhaps demonstrate why the Unionist parties were so desperate to avoid having a devo-max option on the ballot paper – contrary to received wisdom, independence would actually have won, albeit with barely over a third of the vote. (Or around 43% if you discount Don’t Knows and non-voters, very close to the proportion who actually voted Yes.)
But the most intriguing thing is that the “more powers” option is LESS popular than the status quo. Changing nothing at all was the preferred option of people planning to vote Conservative tomorrow (by 62% to 21%) and also those saying they’ll vote Labour (45-30), with only the Lib Dems (33-48) and SNP (6-12) narrowly in favour of Smith.
Taken as a whole, and given the benefit of hindsight, No voters would choose the status quo over Smith by a clear 47-31, while Yes voters found Smith slightly more acceptable than nothing (4-9) but still overwhelmingly backed independence.
Now, there are all sorts of possible ways to spin those findings, many of which somewhat contradict each other. But two things do seem to be clear.
One is that nobody’s going to be putting up any statues to the Smith Commission any time soon. And second is that when the time comes to negotiate the new devolution settlement, the people of Scotland don’t much fancy what they’ve been offered in the name of The Vow so far, and they want a large block of MPs at Westminster who they definitely trust to put Scotland’s interests first.
So in effect the Smith dogs breakfast is a bogey. It is as dead as the Norwegian Blue.
what I wonder would be the result it you’d offered a “Less powers” option?
Wanted 30+, Hoping for 40+, now hungry for 50+
No more calls of ‘who cares’ from those who ‘don’t care’
…it will still be a long day!
interesting results
Smith/vow/Gordon Brown shouting at people was a collective smokescreen hiding – eh – nothing
(poll tease!)
The general feeling expressed days after Black Friday when tried to rationalise why so many would vote against their country’s interest, was that a good many of them against independence happening now actually want greater powers for Scotland. Those figures bear that out.
You provide a great service not only for your readers, Stuart, but for the cause of Scotland’s better democracy.
Many thanks.
Plus the the unionists can’t say that your portrayal of Smith as devomax (which we all know it is nowhere near) is disingenuous as they have already told us Smith is superdooperydoo devomaxamillious.
15 NO voters would have voted for independence if the Smith proposals had been an option on the ballot paper.
????????????
No last minute surprises in the voting intentions, no great enthusiasm for the Smith Commission proposals, and remember most of them have still to be enacted.
With the polls remaining steady for weeks on end and no last minute game changer in the shape of a new VOW it all seems like the Referendum was the start of the change rather than the end as the unionists had predicted and wanted.
Under thirty hours to go until the polls close and hopefully there will be minimal tactical voting and fewer doubts over the authenticity of the postal vote to derail the SNP express heading for Westminster.
The apparent level of hatred against Scots and the SNP being stirred up by the English Unionist papers concerns me as does the unwavering bias by BBC Scotland, which should be impartial and the spin and malevolence of the Record which must surely change its tune sometime soon.
Thanks for keeping something for us to read tomorrow, it will be a long day and night and I only hope that all the effort so many have put in during this campaign will be well rewarded.
Sadly that looks to me as though NO voters would still vote NO. That needs to change significantly before we even think about another referendum.
A very interesting deduction – that the No vote would have split between more powers and status quo, while the Yes vote would held up.
The problem, of course with a three option question would have been that independence could have been carried with <50% and cries of foul would have arisen!
Also, no one in there right minds (not even BetterTogether) would have offered Smith up front! It's DevoFA and their Vow con was to imply much much more was on offer for a No win.
I do wonder what would have happened with 3 options where genuine FFA/DevoMax was the middle way.
Similarly, it could have been two questions: DevoMax Y/N, Independence Y/N.
Of course no DevoMax option/question was ever going to be included because it would have had to be defined clearly up front and been legally binding. This would have been a far cry for pathetically inadequate Smith!
I make that 57% for Change/Devo Max as against 27% for No Change. And if I had a calculator handy I’d have a bash at excluding DKs.
It makes you wonder what the best options really are.
If we had won the independence vote last September, right wing MPs in WM would have united behind every available means, however disreputable, to scupper it. That is now obvious, legality and democracy are no bar to their shenanigans, and EVEL was only a foretaste of their bad faith.
Now it seems as if the Yookay is, as many had predicted, disintegrating from within, and sooner than we might have hoped. There is a certain schadenfreude in watching the WM lickspittles struggling desperately to get any sort of majority, and we must hope that, in order to clean up their own mess they will be forced towards federalism, not a perfect solution but acceptable to me at least, and less likely to be undermined by the right this time, as they need it to save their own skins
For what it’s worth (OK, not much) But I have come to the conclusion that my earlier realpolitik idea that 25-30 would be a fantastic result has been modified by the consistency of ALL the polls. So either it’s a massive conspiracy or the Pollsters are right.
So, my view is that on the day some waiverers will hold their noses again, and Labour will win through in more seats than the raw figures suggest. Best guess 10-15 seats. Tories probably retain one, and LDs collapse, retaining only 2-3 seats. This would leave the SNP with up to 40 MPs.
Anything over that would really be “Astonishing”.
Caveat: too many Don’t Knows for my liking as this opens up my tin-hat concern about the Postal Vote. But, finger’s crossed it would be too difficult to arrange with all the supposed tactical voting
Tomorrow night will be a long one!
Percentage of voters who want at least the Smith Commission proposals or greater (exc Don’t Knows and wouldn’t vote)
68%
Overwhelming majority of Scots want more powers.
O/T tomorrow’s National will have a colour in scottish election map, including a free yellow highlighter pen!
Got my copy of “London’s Calling” by G A Ponsonby delivered yesterday.
Looking forward to reading it tomorrow between shifts at the polling station, and work.
Looking forward to Friday.
I don’t think the Smith commission proposals would count as anything like a ‘devo max’ option. They are a slap in the face, not the firm handshake of equal partnership we were led to expect from the “vow”.
Also, if devo max had been a second question rather than a third option in a single question, it’s likely it would have done much better. So we may not have got as high a vote for Yes to independence as we did, but a huge vote for the kind of change and reform we’ll now have to try and get the hard way starting on Friday.
Personally, I expect duplicity and betrayal. But if it all falls apart and forces a second general election, then it’s a clear sign the two-party system is dead. There’s blood in the water (if not exactly foaming in the Thames), and the multi-party feeding frenzy will be ON.
“I don’t think the Smith commission proposals would count as anything like a ‘devo max’ option.”
No. Nobody was saying they did.
Thanks Rev. Good to see the polls holding steady.
I hope the SNP demand Home Rule, as promised to us in the referendum, or no deal with Labour. (starting with the Queen’s speech).
Cheers for the teaser stu ya wee evil durty lol roll on tomorrow.
There is now only 32% of Scots (exc don’t knows and wouldn’t vote) who back the status quo.
Jenni says:
“Sadly that looks to me as though NO voters would still vote NO.”
Yes. I think things haven’t changed a lot … yet.
I note 4% of Yes would now vote Status Quo and 3% No would now vote for Independence. Possibly just within errors. But perhaps suggesting it is fluid.
One other slightly depressing figure is that 31% who would opt for powers. Here they are explicitly opting for Smith, rather than DevoMuchMore which was offered for a No vote at the time! Perhaps people don’t really appreciate how poor Smith proposals are.
In September, Lord Ashcroft’s exit poll found the main reason for voting No for 25% of No voters was …
A NO vote would still mean extra powers for the Scottish Parliament together with the security of remaining part of the United Kingdom, giving the best of both worlds
… a bit less than the 31% in this poll. Shows the continuing demand among No voters for more powers. Will they get them without independence? Time will tell.
Does anyone think it is going to be difficult getting from the status quo (or even Smith Commission findings) at present to independence? I know we got 45 per cent last year, but there still is a big gap between the present status quo and independence. How do we bridge it?
59 seats are there for the taking, we just keep on working to the very end.
59 is the target lets hit it.
Cameron/Miliband: It’s all down to the wire now!”
So if you can limbo dance get out and get under”!
The worst bit of news from this poll is that UKIP somehow garner more votes than Scottish Greens. Thats a travesty!
I think the figures had there been a devo max question, would be exactly the same as the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey that they do annually….think the last one had indy as the preferred option, followed swiftly by devo max….
O/T
Flew in yesterday from Hong kong to vote. Attended a Mhairi Black meeting in Johnstone Castle last night – great lassie. What a difference from the Labour troughers – and no wonder Alexander has refused to be on the hustings with her.
Walked around Edinburgh today. No wonder Labour are losing. What Murphy seems to have failed to realise is that tomorrow is Referendum 2. SNP posters are side by side with Yes posters in Edinburgh (the No City!). Tomorrow we vote in teh re-run.
I am voting YES – and so are the 50%+.
How do we get from here to there?
Well, I think it was Patrick Roden who commented on SCOT goes POP! that the demographics are such that Yes gains a nett 10,000 votes per month. So even without anyone changing their mind, by 2020 Yes will be ahead.
Winning the arguments is what will put us on 60%+.
It is true that most No voters would still back No, but that is only 32% of ALL voters.
68% of Scots want at least the Smith proposals or greater.
A bit disappointing that the pile of crap called the Smith Commission would be enough to change some Yessers to No( 8%).
Meek is the word that springs to mind.
Plenty work to do here.
Jenni says:
6 May, 2015 at 3:35 pm
Sadly that looks to me as though NO voters would still vote NO. That needs to change significantly before we even think about another referendum.
Look on the bright side, Jenni – support for independence, stuck at 30% for years, went up to 45%, and has stayed there! The tectonic plates have shifted in our favour. I agree there needs to be another big surge, but this is hardly likely to occur so soon after 2014.
IMO we need to be patient and bide our time. The union’s days are certainly numbered, but there are a few earth-shattering events to come that will finally seal the deal (tomorrow may be one of them – here’s hoping). The next referendum we have to win or it really is off the table for a generation. Another 5-10 years before we can win it easily. I would rather hang back for a comfortable win than to go early and risk another narrow NO vote, just for the chance of maybe scrapping over 50%.
It goes to show how the waters got muddied in the referendum when the “VOW” came along and the westminster parties panic led them to force it through.
It would have been interesting to see what would have happened to those figures if that third option (the Devo Max question) had been there from the start. I reckon we’d be independent by now.
Looking at the statistics over past elections, I’ve come to the belief, for those that consistently choose not to vote should lose their vote, 3 strikes and you’re out.
Only one colour of highlighter pen – that’s cool
Here is the most interesting statistic, IMHO:
Yes Voters (45%) moving to more powers (Smith Commission): 2%
No Voters (55%) moving to more powers (Smith Commission): 23%
No voters by a factor of 11.5 would move their vote from No to more powers, as compared to Yes voters.
Sorry but we need to wait ten years or so before the post war generation cark it.
I know it’s bad…
Might want to flag this up – the final nail in the coffin of the ‘largest party gets t form the government’ claim – from the guy who wrote the manual
link to theguardian.com
‘dointhebiz says:
6 May, 2015 at 4:27 pmLooking at the statistics over past elections, I’ve come to the belief, for those that consistently choose not to vote should lose their vote, 3 strikes and you’re out.’
Great idea Einstein, what would have the yes vote been in that case then?
Under 45% considering a load of apathetic voters voted yes and don’t usually vote cos there is no point!
Hey wingers. My partner who is 5’6″‘ and petite just got abused by a massive 6’2″ aggressive guy in Forfar as she went to the post office wearing her SNP jacket. He sat in his car and shouted at her “f#cking c*nt” disgusting behaviour that would not have came about if people like Murphy and Willie Rennie hadn’t turned this GE into a refurendum debate.
Well the time has come for Scotland, me, I realistically think 20-25 seats, to many undecided and the Red Tories will convince more to vote for them with their dirty tricks and lies. I hope I’m wrong and we get over 40 seats but cant see it to many silent voters out there everyone I meet is being tight lipped (worrying)or saying better with Labour oh hell please don’t. Common ye Jocks fly the flag not the white one owned by the unbelievers. Alba Forever.
Smith Commission is not anywhere near Devo-Max; and wasn’t even before westminster started tinkering with it (and wait until the other side of the election when they try to stall it – which is likely to be a bit harder for the unionists, if the maths work out as per the polls’ predictions).
So your supposition about Smith is fairly flawed.
As someone who ended up canvassing the doors for Yes and has joined the SNP since the referendum, I can assure you, if Devo-Max had been on the ballot paper, I would have voted for it with only the most casual of consideration to the other options.
But having been given only Yes or No, I did my research and came down strongly on the side of Yes. And if you ask me now, then of course, Smith (which is barely Devo-A-Wee-Bit-More) would not be anywhere near enough.
And now, for me, Devo-Max isn’t enough; though I suspect it would be for the vast majority of voters in Scotland (as a stepping stone towards ultimate independence).
“Include paragraph breaks or I WILL KILL YOU WITH HAMMERS.”
PMsl, you nasty cybernat!
@Clootie
After putting my details into the SNP’s webpage weeks ago and hearing nothing I’m on get the vote out duty tomorrow. Much better than doing feck all.
@Luigi.
Agreed,The main problem I foresee is the management of expectation.
Whilst the demographics favour independence in the medium term,people are impatient for change just now.This is where extra powers could play a part in a “holding role” if you like. It would also give the government time to show what they could really do for Scotland and increase the benefits on behalf of the Scottish people.
I find the poll findings extremely encouraging, not at all surprising, and broadly in line with previous polling and anecdotal evidence.
That is, the overwhelming majority of those committed to casting a ballot did and remain wanting significant constitutional change. I suspect many of the respondents in favour of Smith (had it been on the ballot) actually equate or conflate their favourable answer with Home Rule or Devo-Max. That’s conjecture on my part but given the ideological narrative spun by the Unionists that the Home Rule = Vow = Smith outcomes; would logically entail those in favour of Smith believe they are being offered SIGNIFICANTLY greater powers than are actually contained in his final recommendations. A supplementary question, “what do you understand Smith to mean” with a series of progressive options moving from limited to maximum power transfer might have helped illuminate folks understanding of what they THOUGHT they might be buying into.
So from both a “comfort for a lifetime Yesser” perspective and for future prospects that we can win the long-game, I am not at all disappointed by these findings. A very welcome and worthwhile exercise Stu. Thanks for this and for keeping us going tomorrow – totally with you!! Me and the family convened to a local bar-restaurant for the afternoon on the 18th, slightly numb, drained, and desparate for information and gossip!!!
It seems no matter what you do or say there will always be folk who will take the contrary opinion just because they can
If Westminster offered gold nuggets there are people who would fall for it then later say What have they ever done for us, but they vote the same way next time again
Westminster lets them down every single time and they know it so they have inbred mistrust of politicians so might as well mistrust the ones you’re used to
Why move your vote to new liars when the old ones feel comfortable
I mean you wouldn’t want to make the ghastly mistake of voting SNP you might be proved wrong and that would never do would it
The embarrassment of giving in how could you tell your friend (singular) or significant (nobody)
@ Kevin Evans, that should be reported to the Police, I would not hesitate. No one should be verbally abused, regardless of attire. I do wonder if we have some far right visitors who have come over on the ferry, or from down south.
The National Front in Scotland have a pretty low profile, but they would love a bigger one, and I’m sure they will have invited their pals in on this election.
No point in re-running the IRef and what if scenarios.
Tomorrow is the day that counts and whilst the NO vote was a bitter disappointment we HAVE moved on, regrouped and our voice WILL be heard.
There will be much waily waily as the results come in and the blame game starts but all eyes are on Scotland and whatever way the threads are spun we shall be even better and stronger than we already are.
Get out there, wear your badges and wave your flags with pride. We are done with being cowed and used as vote fodder.
This is OUR show – let’s make it a great one!
The essential skill you need if you want to succeed as an experimental research scientist, is to be able to foresee how your view of the world will be changed by each of the possible outcomes of the experiment you are thinking of doing (if most or all of the possible outcomes will change your view of the world not a bit, then that experiment would be a waste of time: try and think of something better!)
I’ve been trying, not very successfully, to apply this technique to tomorrow’s ‘experiment’. The most difficult outcome is also the most likely one — hung parliament, with Conservatives having most seats. What happens then? Cameron continues in office, of course, and he and Mr Clegg try to put together a Queen’s Speech that they can both agree on. Mr Miliband will argue that such a QS is bound to be defeated, and that he should be allowed to take over as PM: Cameron/Clegg’s reply is that the de facto banning of formal agreement with the SNP means that nobody can form a _majority_ government, and that Mr Cameron should obviously have first crack at running a _minority_ government.
It’s what happens next that I can’t be sure of: either the central, permanent, non-party, non-parliament part of the government — let’s call this ‘The Queen’ — puts her foot down, and Cameron has to go at once; or she doesn’t, and Cameron continues to plan his QS for the meeting of Parliament in a fortnight’s time.
If we take the first fork, Mr Miliband becomes PM and starts writing his QS…. and what else? Lib/Dems talk to him about a coalition? Or do discussions with all other parties remain informal arrangements and understandings?
And if we take the second fork there are 3 possibilities:
— Cameron is forced to give up sometime before parliament meets: and then we’re back to the first fork
— Parliament meets and the QS is defeated – then we’re back to the first fork, with the interesting condition that Mr Miliband’s government would not then be obliged to produce a Queen’s Speech
— Parliament meets and the QS is not defeated — because Labour abstains. This is the ‘Grand Coalition’, or ‘Very British Coup’ outcome.
I now have about half-a-dozen possible outcomes in view, with no idea of what their relative probabilities might be.
In any case, what matters is not what the relative probabilities are, but what will actually happen.
Is there nothing to do but wait and see?
So wee Gordie Broon came out with HIS Vow just before Sept 18th and *ahem* won the day huh! Personally I do NOT think he won anything he just STOLE everything but hey what’s done is done as they say.
Next up we were *cough* delivered the Smith Commission in all it’s (non) finery. From what I can recall it had bugger all in it to start with and thanks to that bunch of OVER 800 unelected morons in Westminster we now have even LESS to be celebrating. Oops I forgot … we DO get control of road signs … or do we?
My wee voice keeps telling me that Westminster have stolen these particular powers back but I can’t find anything yet to back it up.
So basically for anyone wanting to understand the Referendum/Smith Commission in a “nut shell” I would suggest this.
Labour LIED to the electorate before the referendum and Labour ( & co.) have LIED to the electorate AFTER the referendum and during the Smith Commission Westminster process.
Basically the electorate have been LIED to since day 1. Net result situation normal … Scotland’s SNAFU! (Situation Nornmal All F****d Up!)
So “the people of Scotland don’t much fancy what they’ve been offered in the name of The Vow so far, and they want a large block of MPs at Westminster who they definitely trust to put Scotland’s interests first”
And look at how hard red and blue tory UK wants to stop this happening. They’re even talking about scrapping first past the post.
What actually are Scotland’s interests though? Fiscal autonomy gets savaged by all Britnats but even now Brent Crude barrel price is recovering well.
OT but a shockingly hysterical rant by Hugo Rifkind in the Spectator.
Mayhap he is attempting to protect his daddy from those that find his appearance on a liberal leaflet urging their vote to keep the SNP out, rather surprising if not downright insulting considering his sneering money grubbing.
Perhaps the younger Rifkind is so blinded by his own importance that he thinks he can write any old bollocks and it will be accepted.
I am honestly utterly disgusted by that article.
Sorry for going O/T here but here are a few stills of Murph the Smurph being *ahem* attecked in Glasgow the other day.
link to twitter.com
Surely the big sheet of STATIONARY cardboard has a law suit against Murphy coming up. That must be the most obvious attack on a sheet of cardboard ever witnessed in my view.
On BBC Scotland right now – an interview with an Israeli the gist of which is that people should vote for a ‘big party’ to avoid all the coalition horse trading… just in case you thought that BBC Scottish Labour were in any way not putting their all into Labour.
@Andrew Coulson
I am fairly certain the Queen will not give a QS unless she has cast iron guarantees it will succeed. So paths through the swamp leading to a failed QS will never even be followed.
IMO it comes down to Milliband most. He has two choices.
Firstly he goes back on everything he has said in recent days and does some sort of vague deal with the SNP, an essential component of which is to ensure his QS passes.
Then he has option two, which you have covered…
“Parliament meets and the QS is not defeated — because Labour abstains. This is the ‘Grand Coalition’, or ‘Very British Coup’ outcome.”
Somehow, I have the felling ‘The Coup’ by the Tories might be what Milliband allows!
He has to weigh up reaction in England if he were to try to sell an SNP deal in the face of horrendous criticism from the Tories and the MSM. He may actually stand aside as the smaller rUK party.
Slightly O/T
Anyone had a look at Nicola Sturgeon’s Facebook page ?
There is a series of pictures during her visit to Mumsnet Edinburgh for a Q&A
I will be very very surprised if any are shown on MSM
Just lets say the caption on most should be ‘Scotland’s future in good hands’!
link to facebook.com
@muscleguy – they’re busy, buddy. I just heard back myself about 50 minutes ago.
I vow to never bow to a vow.
If (when) Scotland achieves over 50 governmental seats in Westminster tomorrow, we’ll be celebrating throughout the whole weekend regardless! That’s for sure.
Therefore, to undecided countrymen and women.. when you DO vote, remember, if you want to share in this amazing experience.. go with the majority Scottish vote (and that of your fellow Scot.)
Don’t be on the sad side of the vote and don’t worry, be happy
This is one for our history books.
Sorry for going O/T folks but Ian Russell has tweeted the approximate times for declarations early on Friday. So for all you night owls out there … and I know there are the odd one or two of you … here is the list. Enjoy!
link to twitter.com
Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.
To those who voted ‘No’ last year please realise that we are not ‘better together’ in fact we would be very much ‘better apart’.
I am not a second class citizen, subsidy junkie, jock from ‘Jokistan’, nationalist thug, sweaty Jock or any other derogatory terms certain attention seeking , ill informed and self serving English morons care to spew from their vile ridden mouths.
I am a proud scot who seeks to live in a fairer and just society and who hopes that my country will one day be free to achieve that kind of society.
God willing tomorrow will be the start.
Good poll figures on the eve of the election. Even if it was like the October 1974 election when the SNP were over-rated by 6% in an exit poll done for the BBC Election programme, we are on for a good showing. However this is not an exit poll but a full scale poll which will depress Labour. I can live will 42% to 32% as under FPTP seats will tumble if you can get into the high 30’s low 40’s/
I did see a tweet a while ago from a Labour apparatchik who said he expected the polls to turn in Labour’s favour at the end of the month (March) – it didn’t happen.
Help! In a final fit of rage against Labour after Lord Mcwhatsisfaces tweets the other day I said I am defo voting Green. However, here in Exeter where I most annoyingly can’t vote for the SNP, it seems to be a close run thing between Labour (small majority of about 2,700 last election) and Conservatives.
Will I be cutting my nose off to spite my face if I vote green and then get conservatives? I don’t know what to do. I would say that local labour councillors have been very good with some local issues. The others have been rubbish. But can I really vote Labour again?
Guardian vox pop Nuneaton poll, nice man from Graun says Britain’s in trouble and all because the people of Scotland are voting tomorrow.
link to archive.is
@ Lesley-Anne
That big cardboard sign–I think Megaphone Murphy must have seen the words “Fresh Lay” on the side of the cardboard.
He must have been sorely disappointed that no one pelted him with one. He’ll be cracking up….
Taxi’s ordered.
Just watched FMQs. Seriously, what is it with Kezia Dugdale? Just when you think she can’t get any worse, she goes and proves you wrong. Yet again, totally outclassed and put in her place by Nicla without even breaking sweat.
Poor Dug, she has delusions of adequacy. Someone really should advise her to pack it in and look for a job she can actually cope with.
I hope we get a chance to see her greetin’ face on Friday morning.
@ Meindevon.
Tough choice: shared with many other voters in england, I suspect. Not many good options there
Suggest you decide on the basis of the actual labour candidate. Is he or she progressive or blairite. If the latter then you are getting a tory either way, so vote green
Just a thought
I’m sorry but I just had to put this link up!
link to facebook.com
It’s all a cdream folks. Whenever you have seen a mass crowd surrounding Nicola just remember … they are tightly controlled and bussed around from place to place. That’s right the crowds are BUSSED from venue to venue.
Whatever youdo remember you heard it first on SKY NEWS!
Hmm, Odd that this clown has not taken pictures of these alleged buses. Missed a fairly obvious trick there, surely?
Anyone who can stand watching/listening to Murph the Smurph and his side kick whatshisname then here’s a wee two minute video.
I just hope the big sheet of cardboard is O.K. after that blatant assualt on it by Murph the Smurph.
link to home.bt.com
Thinking that milli will do a deal and will want the SNP to commit to a 5 year term not to push for another referendum, this will appease some of the English at the same time.
Seems our old friends IPSO are at it again, according to them as long as you target groups with your abuse, not individuals, thats ok then.
link to rt.com
Edward says:
“Anyone had a look at Nicola Sturgeon’s Facebook page ?
There is a series of pictures during her visit to Mumsnet Edinburgh for a Q&A”
Great pics! The MSM won’t be showing these.
Let’s face it, there are probably some politicians you wouldn’t hand your weans over to!
Edward 5.26 pm.
Cracking photos. hope most notice there 34 others.
Looking forward to the discussions on the 8th. got a funny feeling we will be MUCH happier with our lot. from the little shown it’s pretty good news. Scotland wants more powers.
one day left. Tomorrow will be a long one.
I cannot believe that Sky has a report stating that SNP supporting crowds when Nicola Sturgeon turns up are bussed around – must be all of 200 buses at times (and, surprisingly, no photos).
Propagandists used to say ‘tell a lie often enough and it would be believed’.
Not any longer. Show me the photos.
Looking forward to that Jeremy Vine’s UK map…..seeing the ‘yellow peril colour’ filling up all of Scotland… not to mention the look on his physog as it turns a bit wan which will also be a treat.
Thanks Fiona.
Candidate is Ben Bradshaw, whose partner is Scottish and supported Independence (first hand) and he also told me he wasn’t very happy with the negative Better Together campaign.
So maybe I will have to bite the bullet and vote for him and tell myself at least it’s not Murphy!
Now’s the hour: what is it with Kezia Dugdale?
I believe it to be a combination of the arrogance with which Labour attended to Scotland’s needs, saw it as easy meat, loyal, and their tradition of sending their best to Westminster where their ambitions lay.
Result, dross left at Holyrood.
Don’t you just love the way BBC presenters slip greasily from discussing the SNP to discussing Ukip, as if the two by association have a lot in common.
O/T – sorry.
This Saturday in Dundee, will be the ‘Sunshine City Fest’, a thank you to all the grass roots campaigners for the referendum and this general election.
There will be a WOS stand at this event, organised by Ronnie Anderson, so, Wingers who will be in the Dundee area on Saturday, make your presence known!
link to tinyurl.com
BTW: see ‘off-topic’ for updates about the Dundee event.
link to wingsoverscotland.com
Talking to an older work colleague about who he was voting for today he said “Labour,voted for them all my life cannae stand that Sturgeon she would get more votes if she did not keep banging on about a second referendum!” My chin hit the floor!
Thanks Stu. This is a very encouraging poll.
Just back from Italy and guess what folks we are being talked about! Even Americans in Rome who heard my Scottish accent told me that they were following our story with great interest!
I’m always proud to be Scottish but this was a wee boost because even in the sleepiest part of Italy, they are interested in the fortunes of the SNP in this GE!
Taking nout for granted but based on this poll, SNP have 22% advantage over Labour.
Assuming a uniform swing (we know it is a higher swing to SNP in Labour heartlands) the only seats the Unionist parties will win between them are:
Kirkaldy & Cowdenbeath (Lab 25.1% lead)
Rutherglen & Hamilton West (Lab 22.4% lead)
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (Lab 24.9% lead)
Glasgow Northeast (Lab 27.1% lead)
Glasgow Southwest (Lab 23.1% lead)
Orkney & Shetland (LD 25.7%)
SNP to win 53 seats based on this poll.
For all seats BUT ESPECIALLY those above we MUST get our support out to vote on the day. If any of the above seats is your area, please do everything you can tomorrow to get our vote out. Every single vote will count, especially so in those seats above. Let’s try for a clean sweep.
@BornOptimist 6.09
I have been trying to find how to male a formal complaint about Sky of to Sky news since seeing this earlier.
Sky reporter Robert Corvil is alleging huge convoys of buses shuttling the same massive crowds around Scotland to make Nichola look good.
If anybody knows how to complaint to these guys please let the rest of us know (I have the ombudsmen’s number)
BUT PLEASE make any complaints rationally and sensibly
I presume he has never been to Scotland, or is getting a briefing from Labour or ConDems who have been usuing the same few placard holders for the whole election.
Just back from trip to London to bring my daughter back to vote.
While there we visited the Imperial War Museum, very interesting but these two quotes caught my eye.
It is not right that one people should rule another.
British rule in India is an evil. Gandhi 1908.
and the other,
England and the Empire were never greater than they are today. The Times– New Years Day 1914.
100 years on and they still think the same. Not for long.
Just my opinion, but I think it is hardly worth complaining this time, Cadogan Enright.
NOBODY could believe that. It is just comical
And unto BBC RS there came a great revelation…
At long last, an acceptance from the BBC northern branch’s political correspondent David Porter that:
“The single party with the most seats does not automatically get to form the government…it even says to in the Cabinet Manual”
(Halle – bloody – lujah )
And the studio response?
“Oh…really?” (feign surprise etc etc)
I guess resistance against the overwhelming facts is now futile for the BBC up here, and to save looking any more biased, underhand and stupid, they have at long capitulated.
Their task in saving the Labour Party in Scotland has turned out to be nowt but a damp squibb.
Meindevon: Candidate is Ben Bradshaw, whose partner is Scottish and supported Independence, and he also told me he wasn’t very happy with the negative Better Together campaign. Maybe I’ll have to bite the bullet and vote for him.
Believe it or not I’ve had first-hand contact with Ben Bradshaw. Top bloke. Genuine. A good local MP.
Off topic
Del from Independence Livestream has conducted an interview with the 3 members of “Scottish Resistance” about the Murphy affair.
I feel quite sorry for them, quite self obsessed, but at the same time, they want to make their point that Labour has betrayed folk. They were set up and walked into it.
The two SNP members that have been suspended said they just want to ask questions on the street, just as Murphy is making his opinions heard. The guy Piers Doughty-Brown has a black eye from the scuffle, and had to ask Del to sit down to continue the chat. They are hardly the SAS.
I read what Cadogan Enright posted about two solicitors saying they considered assault had been committed on Clerkin. The first thing I had posted about the affair was the footage clearly showed Clerkin being jostled.
I so loathe Murphy.
Bookies seem to be changing their mind about who will be PM.
They were saying Milliband.
They have now (today) changed to Cameron.
I have serious doubts if this is because Cameron will command a majority of votes. I suspect it is because Milliband will agree to abstain from Cameron’s Queens Speech. Milliband may not have the guts to form a government with SNP support in the face of Tory and media outrage.
We will soon find out!
Lots of people got carried away and thought we would win the referendum 60/40. I think the same may be happening again.
There will be some seats lost through tactical voting, local issues and popular sitting MPs. My guess is that the SNP will get 40+ seats which is still great.
Hope I’m wrong and there will be more than that.
@ Meindevon
Agree with Fiona.
It is very important that the Green vote overall across England holds up – I do not see such a vote as being wasred – correction wasted, as many will be questioning the FPTP system after this GE (I hope).
The last time I was in a polling booth I was blin with tears and snotters, not this time. Steely resolve this time let’s hand these bastards their arse and do what’s right for Scotland.
Got butterflies in my tummy!
This all looks like a HUGE three dimensional game of chess…and so far only the SNP know how to play!
The Greens and Socialists are in there too!
But that sorry lot huddling in Westminster haven’t a clue.
Lets keep going folks! Talk to everyone you see, wear your heart on your sleeve, your badge on your jacket, keep smiling : we are getting there!!
Cactus: ‘I vow not to bow to the Vow’ =)
I was just looking at the electionforecast.co.uk figures for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, they have SNP on 36% and tories on 35%. The greens are polling 2%.
Any green voters in the constituency, please, please lend the SNP your vote, it’s so close, it would be heartbreaking if tory David Mundell held on to his seat by just a few votes.
There is no question from the video that Jim Murphy walked straight into the banner. He could easily have walked around to get to his crate, but no, he walked straight into it.
@ Icyspark
You can hardly expect him to walk and look where he is going at the same time. The world is supposed to get out of his way, you know
Jim Murphy says, for months, “The biggest Party forms the Government”.
Chris Ship says tonight, “The voters elect the government and the Government elects the “Party in Power”.
Ah say, “Wha’s the hell’s richt?”
Longer for some than for others I’m betting.
Westminster couldn’t have made its attitude toward Scotland any more clear in the past seven months. Personally I’m for returning the favour and being equally clear in how we view the establishment and their parties.
Anyroads early to bed, early to rise. Let’s get to those polling stations tomorrow and get it done.
That nasty Torquil fellow with the broon shoes is on Rep Scotland just now. Murphy has run a good campaign he says. -27% personal ratings and 22% behind. Ffs what planet is he on!
Just think how bad it would have been for them if Mr Murphy wasn’t there, though, Big Jock. It is a horrifying prospect!
Well, tomorrow’s headlines the last ones that can affect the election, I wonder what the headlines will be in the dishonest Herald, amongst others? Here’s a sample for today on Herald View:
“The challenge that faces us all and the decision each of us must make
The Herald does not endorse political parties.”
Riiiiight. Which is why every time the SNP is mentioned, there’s a sometimes subtle innuendo that what they’re going for is somehow, not cricket.
Less than 27 hours until it makes no difference. I can’t wait.
I don’t believe in God, but tonight I’m going to pray that Scotland has finally woken up.
@Andrew Coulson says: 6 May, 2015 at 5:01 pm:
” … ‘The Queen’ — puts her foot down, and Cameron has to go at once; or she doesn’t, and Cameron continues to plan his QS for the meeting of Parliament in a fortnight’s time.”
Thingis, Her Majesty hasn’t really got a say in the matter for the Privy Council who decides and you know who are the Privy councillors, don’t you — Well don’t you?
Well timed poll anyway by the way @Rev. The SNP have it in their media centre.
Speaking for myself, articles here help to keep up the morale, and perhaps to keep the heid posting “elsewhere”. I must admit I’m finding it increasingly hard to keep the heid as lies are repeated time after time, and not so subtle language is used to put down the SNP, and raise up whatever the opposition is, while pretending to be honest and impartial.
Murphy clearly walking straight at a placard, becomes “a placard was thrust in Murphy’s face” and he and whatisname were “abused”. Bog off with the lies.
Keep the heid for the last less than 27 hours – do as I say not what I (almost) do!
A warning on fraud just now on RT some very sensible advice have a look
Looks like things haven’t changed much. Before the referendum it was 1/3 all powers, 1/3 more powers, 1/3 king canute.
Hi Stuart, after months of lurking reading this site, finally posting, and just set up a tenner a month standing order. (Twice what Nicola gets).
Well worth it considering the amount of laughs that this site provides. Living abroad, so voted by postal ballot last week (first time I have voted in 30 years). Special thanks to all who have helped in the campaign. Visited the SNP shop in Kirchintilloch last week and met the nice couple there holding the fort. Well done guys. Onwards and upwards.
J.
P.s. Anyone know when the E.Dumbartonshire results will come in. (I don’t want to peak too early with the beers and miss it)
Morphy has morphed it again.
Now it is if Tories have even one more seat than Labour Cameron will try and cling onto power.
So Jim, Labour will just say “OK then Dave”. Dimwit. What happened to only party big enough and strong enough.
Saw the cardboard clip on Belfast Telegraph website. He even remembered to turn his face into MSM cameras. Unfortunately James Cook was watching his cameraman’s back at the time in this utter chaos.
Weevil Alderson on radio trying to turn Nicola’s “I can’t hear you!” on the mound into Kinnock’s Sheffield moment. Truly desperate. Roll on tomorrow. ‘Mon Phil in the Brig.
Good old Jon Snow .
He is giving them pelters for abusing the Scots voters. And sounds very angry too. It’s very rare for someone in the media to come out and talk like he does. Respect to the guy.
I never gave Ch4 much credit but this is a change.
Go Scotland.
As a long-time supporter of the Green Party –
In Scotland I will be voting SNP, please do the same.
BBC just cant help it they are now urging parties not to accept the vote if it does not represent the Government of the UK properly and are now asking everyone on their panels if there should be a second election.
Also jackie bird taking about tactial voting
Ferocious sum up there on C4 news from their man in Edinburgh, with lovely boost for creepy Jim. Sturgeon has to control the “extreme” wing of SNP says the big liar and no wonder he was told where to stick it over at the Barras last week. Staggering bias from our other ghastly public broadcasters, extreme liars for teamGB.
Here in England, no SNP candidate on tv or radio but all debate continues with Con, Dem, LAb and UKIP too, all same message, SNP bad.
Iain Martin on Sky News was a complete loon. The notion of a couple of hundred buses chasing a bloody helicopter around the country is completely barking. He needs his bumps felt. His lie meter is set to bampot.
However, the campaign is all but done. What has been done has been done and nothing short of asteroid strike is going to change the way people vote tomorrow.
I shall watch Brooker’s Election Wipe and Ballot Monkeys as light relief after a what was an unpleasant and shallow campaign by the Westminster Tories, Liberals and Scottish Labour. (Ruth was nothing like as bad as her London colleagues and Ed wasn’t as bad as Murphy).
The Labour Party MUST be in bad shape when they’re depending on Toquil Crichton doing their Party Political Broadcasts for them now on Reporting Scotland with Burd the doomed one
Zoe Williams of The Guardian raging at the horrible nasty Sturgeon attacks on Sturgeon by Daily Heil, Express, Torygraph etc, making Williams 2015 GE jaw dropping hypocrite of the last 10 tv minutes.
link to theguardian.com
link to theguardian.com
@Brian Doonthetoon
“BTW: see ‘off-topic’ for updates about the Dundee event.”
Sheesh, Brian you could at least send them to the post with a link to the flyer! Wouldn’t want just anyone poking around on O/T would we?!
link to wingsoverscotland.com
For your entertainment; something top help fill the grey hours until the vote is in…
link to grousebeater.wordpress.com
Damn it.. Forgot to prepare for the asteroid.. Where’s my gaffer tape..
Ghillie wrote:
“Got butterflies in my tummy!”
BUTTERFLIES? I think i’ve got bats in mine.
26 hours and counting!
Croompenstein says
“The last time I was in a polling booth I was blin with tears and snotters,”
I went to the polling station dressed in a suit and tie,
I couldn’t come out of that booth and face my country dressed like a tink.
Just thinking about it makes me cry.
@Now’s the Hour says: 6 May, 2015 at 5:52 pm:
” … Poor Dug, she has delusions of adequacy. Someone really should advise her to pack it in and look for a job she can actually cope with.”
Aye! Now’s the Hour, but there’s no an afu muckle ca’ fir doorstep scrubbers these days.
‘Britain in the twenty-first century is a deeply divided nation. Whilst a handful of people at the top have never had it so good, millions of families are struggling to make ends meet. Growing number of Britons are turning to charity-run foodbanks, yet at the same time the highest earners in the UK have had the biggest tax cuts of any country in the world. And whilst low-paid workers are seeing their wages stagnate, the super-rich are seeing their pay and bonuses spiral up’ Oxfam, 2014
So we do have a choice after all. We either follow the same political trajectory that will ensure that the younger generation will be working for slave wages and the chances of them aspiring to own their own house will be as remote as flying to the moon- or we walk a different path and stare down the political establishment. I would think the latter- exercise collective mindfulness- vote SNP tomorrow and occupy WM.
Louis B Argyll says
“Damn it.. Forgot to prepare for the asteroid.. Where’s my gaffer tape..”
Yer better with preparation H.
@ YESGUY (7.28pm).
Too little too late, they’re all the same.
__________
@ Paula Rose (7.31pm).
And i’ll be giving The Scottish Greens my 2nd next year.
Saw this on James Kelly’s SGP a reader gave a link to a focus group in Glasgow East where all the undecided voters are now voting SNP;
link to dropbox.com
SNP folk here working on motions at their AGM aimed at avoiding waste of preference votes in the LIST VOTE next year and avoid the likes of Kezia being accidently elected with SNP help as per the last Scottish Government Elections.
Instead they are trying to figure out at what point in the preference list does it make more sense to switch to the Greens or SSP
In the meantime I would urge greens in tight constituencies to vote SNP
Noticed in the bookies tonight it’s 10-1 for any SNP coalition! That’s very strange odds.
Many of the Yes pages have been urging vote with your head this time – SNP, and vote with your heart next year, Green, SSP, or SNP.
I hope any Greens will lend their vote to their SNP candidate this year, please!!!
@ Valerie 6.31
Interesting comment about the guys at the Murphy chaos event. Do you have a link for the Independence Live interview?
What I found strange was that John MacTernan and Duncan Hothersall had pix of those guys with Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon ready to post as soon as the event happened. Looked like a pre planned stitch up to me.
” reporting North Britain” tonight with ” Red Jackie” sporting a “blue Jackie” top.
Perhaps ” Union Jackie” would be most appropriate ??
Roger thanks for the Guardian article. Looks as though that’s one signed ‘vow’ that Cameron won’t be allowed to break and will regret signing.
@Joemcg
The odds are not that strange Joe considering the SNP have consistently ruled out any kind of coalition. A coalition is not on offer from the SNP and is the right decision.
A vote-by-vote basis will only be offered to Labour, there will be NO coalition with SNP. Should be 100/1 odds.
If a month ago you would have offered me ‘where we are now’ poll and betting wise and ‘the level of shit that has actually stuck’ – I would have bitten your hand off. We have run the media gauntlet much, much better than I had feared, particularly on TV where it really matters. For holding the media to account on here the Rev deserves huge gratitude. It’s up to the people now….
@HandandShrimp
Aye, Iain Martin has gone the same way as Ian Smart with the SNP are Nazis/fascists schtick.
Meanwhile, big Eck is having some fun!
link to twitter.com
Thepnr-what would you call any mutual agreement on a vote by vote basis? Not being cheeky! Is that not a loose coalition?
I always thought that the ‘Vow’ was undemocratic and morally wrong.
With only two choices on the ballot paper, there should only ever have been a choice of change or no change.
Imagine if they had ‘vowed’ that if it was a No vote they would introduce Martial law, or that Gordon Brown would become the new King of the UK, or that all future governments would be decided by a game of rock, paper, scissors?
Effectively they forced change on people which they had no power to vote against.
As it was, the ‘Vow’ was a deliberately vague and unenforceable guess at what would be enough to persuade people not to vote Yes. So not only were people forced to vote for change, they didn’t even know what one of the options was.
Anent the claim that Scotland is running out of oil, the problem is that the oil is under the North Sea while the dip-sticks are in Westminster.
Is that not a loose coalition?
In choosing a different meal each week from your local restaurant would that be a healthy choice or a coalition?
The Labour Party managed to keep this quiet!
A Maserati no less.
link to news.stv.tv
@Joemg
We may define a vote by vote basis as a loose coalition, however the bookies i believe will disagree. Here’s Paddy Powers definition for “coalition” bets:
Singles Only. Applies to the cabinet composition of the first government after the next general election. Others on request.
In their view at least, both or more parties in any coalition must also be part of the government cabinet, which in the SNPs case has been expressly ruled out.
link to paddypower.com
Aye folks ma 1st post, been following since aroond January canna praise you all enough.
Great site and an absoloute mine of information.
Gettin nervous aboot the morn hope labour get fit they deserve … booted oot
Not very on topic, I’m afraid — but there is a route to a scenario that does have a reasonable outcome: if you read the ludicrous Rifkind article, and the article by Ross Clark that is linked to on the same Spectator page — what these guys say that they really fear about SNP influence in Parliament is that the SNP will demand the setting of a date for another referendum.
I take it that it is common ground that there is no chance that the SNP will make any such demand? (Nicola has said that she won’t, and anyway everybody interprets the Quebec experience as meaning that it would be folly to demand another referendum until the ‘Yes’ majority is certain).
So if Miliband’s only redline is that he would not allow another referendum, there is no reason why there should not be a reasonable agreement between Labour and SNP — that will allow a minority Labour government to continue for several years — perhaps even a full term.
BBC news just now discussing ‘confidence of the house’
Labour reported by BBC as challenging the Torys assertion that ‘the largest party forms the next government’
reporter had a totally straight face, no hint of embarrassment over the BBC’s failure to challenge the branch office on this month after month
what an abysmal excuse for a broadcasting company
@ Cadogan Enright
In this case I don’t think it is the BBC who should be embarrassed. The tories might not have thought of this particular piece of nonsense were it not for Mr Murphy giving them both the idea and the ammunition. Bet Mr Miliband just loves him to bits for it
My only prediction is that if you have a nip of a straight dram for every seat the SNP wins then Friday morning is going to be a rough one, yet very satisfying at the same time.
‘Probably’ The best hangover in the world.
Oh well that’s a fiver down the Swanee lol! Could not believe the odds too!
O/T BBCs FMQs coverage ( link to bbc.com )
It is amazing they have the audacity to show a picture of outlander related to the series ‘Outlander’ despite it being almost certainly banned for broadcast by the UK government and certainly not picked up by the BBC.
What a shower of …
OT
Watching a bit of the Charlie Brooker election thing and some eejit presenter said cos of magna carta “britain has a parliament”. FFS!
Where’s Robert Peffers when you need him! I’ve learned so much from your contributions on here, Robert. Many thanks.
galamcennalath,
“I am fairly certain the Queen will not give a QS unless she has cast iron guarantees it will succeed.”
In theory, she is a purring ceremonial head of state and would have no right to refuse to deliver her purring ceremonial speech.
The “sovereign” Westminster parliament would force her to abdicate, wouldn’t it?
On a serious note, apart from a very small minority from the other parties, only the 59 SNP MPs elected tomorrow will have any credibility at Westminster. The rest will be rotten to the core.
O/T as usual
Press & Journal online poll:
“Have your say in our final pre #GE2015 poll”
link to bit.ly
Interesting but odd..
despite it being almost certainly banned for broadcast by the UK government
They tried to make out the Sony Pictures Television called them wondering if a UK broadcast was too sensitive while the Referendum was in progress. As if a US studio would lose money by recommending a major territory didn’t show their production. Give me strength.
Terry
I think you will you find she said magma carta. She was taking the piss.
Ballot Monkeys was darkly funny.
Dear old BBC Scotland at it again. I watched Kezia Dugdale make a fool of herself at First Minister’s Questions once again today, however, what she said was carefully selected to make her look good on Newsdrive. And also a wee bit of Jim Murphy, no mention of any other party. Please, please, please let Scottish Labour be wiped out. Oh! and Sarah Smith at it on Scotland 2015: 4 representatives from all the parties and she takes the side of SLAB.
As requested by capella Link to Livestream interview with Clerkin and his two SNP pals.
Hope it works, done this morning, so presume it will be on a loop.
link to livestream.com
Where on earth has Jo Swinson acquired that strange accent of strangulated English accent vowel sounds?
Footsoldier
Same place as Fraser Nelson of the Spectator.
Separated at birth.
Check him out.
Actually, the SNP and UKIP have a LOT in common.
Not their actual policies, of course SNP is left wing and UKIP right wing.
But think – both want their nation ou of a union; both use nationalism to drum up support; both blame all the ills of society on the ‘establishment’; both believe their is a BBC conspiracy against them.
At least the SNP are not racists. But both parties are nationalists and that’s bad enough for me.
@ Valerie, thanks for that interview with the three good men, Murphy is the worst kind of a toady-on-the-make and has been robbing the British people blind. Hopefully his gravy-train hits the buffers tonight.
Yoda 10.15
Do you honestly think we don’t understand Unionists are de facto British nationalists,and what British values are?
Posting a comment on a dead thread in response to no one bears the hallmark of a troll.