Quoted for truth #19
One last snippet from “Road To Referendum” episode 3:
That’s Henry McLeish, former Labour First Minister and still (as far as we know) a firm advocate of a No vote. The comments seemed especially pertinent this week when the two competing parties in today’s Aberdeen Donside by-election both tweeted pictures from the local Aberdeen newspaper the Evening Express, quoting vox-pops with some of their respective voters.
First, some people backing the SNP.
It’s not, if we’re honest, the most inspiring set of reasons, but it’s at least mixed. One is voting over a local issue, one over a national issue, one over independence, one because he doesn’t like Labour and another one because Alex Salmond is a nice man. But now let’s see the Labour voters.
The Express clearly had trouble rounding up five, with one leaning towards the Lib Dems, but the others reflect the spirit of Labour in Scotland for the last half-dozen years – one is reluctantly edging towards the party just because it’s an ingrained habit, and the three others have exclusively negative reasons, with all three saying they’ll vote Labour in a by-election because they oppose independence.
Leaving aside for a moment our wider views on why anyone would be so hostile to the idea of their country running its own affairs, that’s a grim picture. By-elections have nothing to do with independence. Nothing can stop the referendum from happening now, and the number of MSPs in Parliament will do nothing to affect the outcome.
Yet it’s the only thing Labour voters can think of to justify their choice – perhaps because Labour appear to have made it the focus of their campaign, tweeting endlessly about how the SNP are running scared of discussing it.
(At least until today, when Mandy Rhodes of Holyrood Magazine oddly said that “Labour claims the SNP made Donside about the referendum and not local stuff”.)
This seems to be the way Labour wants things. As observed by Henry McLeish, on the evidence of their current strategy they have nothing to offer except a deep tribal hatred of the SNP and what they stand for. McLeish also noted a related phenomenon, pointing out in “Road To Referendum” that:
“What we’re getting now is the kind of ‘fear factor’ emerging – you can’t be a part of a single currency union, a Sterling union, if you have independence. You can’t have this, you can’t have that. Now these are big, substantial debating points, but they shouldn’t be used as a gun to the heads of Scots – ‘If you vote for an independent Scotland, this is going to be your punishment’.”
We’ll find out in the early hours of this morning how many Donside voters Labour’s anti-independence message won over. The press seems to have no idea how the result will turn out, with conflicting reports still everywhere you look. (Mandy Rhodes also tweeted today that a well-placed source reckoned the SNP were a little nervous.)
Sitting governments never extend their majorities in by-elections, with protest votes the normal order of the day, and Donside’s former MSP Brian Adam by all accounts enjoyed a large personal popularity. Both parties have flung themselves into the campaign, with Labour in particular sending their entire front bench to Aberdeen at various points, along with some big names from England such as Harriet Harman.
(That could be interpreted either as a genuine belief that the seat is winnable, or simply sheer excitement at the possibility that victory would technically rob Alex Salmond of his Holyrood majority, a big symbolic blow although in practice he would still win almost any vote with the support of former-SNP independents like Margo McDonald, Jean Urquhart and John Finnie.)
We haven’t been anywhere near the constituency, so we can claim no first-hand knowledge. All the same, we’d be pretty surprised if the outcome was close at the end of the day – like most observers, we’re expecting an SNP hold with a reduced majority, maybe down by 40-50% for a combination of the reasons mentioned above.
But whatever happens, the most interesting thing will be to watch how it shapes the next 15 months. There are few tests of the electoral temperature between now and September 2014, and if Labour see encouraging results from their relentless negativity we should probably expect much more of the same right up to the referendum, however much it dismays Henry McLeish.
We think that would be a mistaken conclusion, but frankly in this site’s view, another year-and-a-bit of smear-and-scare tactics from “Better Together” is the best outcome the independence campaign could possibly hope for. Labour’s rather gormless Willie Young seems far too feeble a candidate to pull off a shock, but the closer he comes the better it might be for Yes Scotland in the long run.
A man sat down to a fine Leg of lamb dinner. he noticed his wife had cut off and discarded a large chunk before cooking. “Why so?” he asked . “Oh my mum did it that way” said his wife. On asking his mother in law “Why so?”, the mother-in-law replied “Oh my mum did it that way”. On visiting his wifes granny and asking “Why so?” the granny replied “Ha…we didnt have an oven big enough in the old days so i just chopped it up!”.
not sure if this is the best place to ask this question i.e. on this thread, but I’ve been wondering if anything ever happened with this story about Tom Kelly suing Salmond. It was all over the press at the time, at a time when the Britnatz saw him as the week link. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13778437
“By-elections have nothing to do with independence.”
Can’t agree there totally, in the event of a Yes vote it will be the Scottish Government that will carry out negotiations, it is therefore essential that they do so with as large a mandate as possible. I have no doubt that when it comes to the crunch there will be those in the parliament that will not support the best possible outcome.
I have to say though that the “my parents voted labour/ I always have ” arguments really do my head in and they really do reinforce the ‘Too stupid’ idea perhaps we really are. (I’m allowed to say that as I’m not a politician) Unfortunately it is very common.
Good analysis. The unremitting negativity of Labour may win them some mid-term, kick-the-government votes but as a long-term strategy for the referendum it will surely fail.
The Scottish electorate, faced in Sept 2014 with the biggest collective decision they’ve ever had to make, will want to connect with a positive but demonstrably achievable vision for their country, not the doom-laden prospectus on offer from the BritNats.
If they do decide to stay with this tactic to the bitter end will they not simply run out of steam well before the referendum?
“Tom Kelly suing Salmond”
That’s interesting, why does a solicitor need to seek legal advice?
I assume the legal advice was “Yer ontae plums”.
As a veteran of many campaigns I never attach any importance to individual election or by-election results. I’m only human, of course – winning feels good, losing feels bad, but what truly matters is having the patience and industry to push on, campaign after campaign after campaign after campaign.
I was inordinately pleased after one council election when, a few days after the count, I bumped into a lady I’d canvassed. ‘I didn’t vote for you’, she said, ‘and then I felt bad. You all worked so hard.’ She later became a valuable member of the party.
Elections are just incidents. It’s the continuing campaign, the talking to people, that matters.
what happens to the list seat?
If Willie wins do you think he will be looking for a 5% salary increase?
“what happens to the list seat?”
It went to the SNP’s Christian Allard, as next person on the party list.
“If they do decide to stay with this tactic to the bitter end will they not simply run out of steam well before the referendum?”
Yes.
Angus McPee
The list seat that M.McD vacated went to the next on the list cannot remember his name but he is French He asked a question at FMQ’s today
Angus: It went to a Spanish born candidate next on the list – he actually had a question today on FMQ’s.
I’m going to pessimistic and predict a slight rise in the SNP’s majority. The reason? because I think people will be asking themselves what the hell Labour are up to turning this local election into a mini referendum. Remember Iain Gray “The last thing a Tory Government wants is a Labour admin in Holyrood”? Enough said.
Angus/Mato – I stand corrected he is indeed French not Spanish
Predictions (based on nothing but a gut feeling of someone who stays in the neighbouring constituency)
A Very Very Low Turnout…..25-30% tops….
An SNP win with a reduced majority and percentage share……as you would expect on a reduced turnout….Mark will probably win comfortably but not by the margin his mentor did
Labour…slightly increased share of the vote but Willie Young suffers as being head of the City Council and overturning the UTG referendum result
Tories 3rd
Lib Dems 4th
UKIP….increased share of vote (well it would be hard not to be)….but less than 1000 votes (mostly protest/the ‘piss off Salmond’ voters who would nae vote fer Willie or think he has no chance anyway)….
Cue ‘SNP in crisis’….’Voters turn away from SNP’ headlines
On the Mandy Rhodes thing…..
Worth remembering in 2007, Alex Salmond was mildly concerned about the numbers in his constituency (in mid afternoon the SNP exit polling had him behind the Lib Dems)…..
The overwhelming majority of those who voted SNP however cast their votes after they’d had their tea…..(obviously this happens everywhere but more pronounced in the North East)….
I suspect if there is any concern amongst the SNP team it is the continual worry that their voters will decide to have an evening in the garden rather than the polling booth (and it is damn fine)….especially as the Bookies at the weekend had it as a cakewalk for the SNP.
TheGreatBaldo
I think you might have to add onto the polling station turnouts the postal votes cast. Not everyone issued with a postal vote returns them.
However, I’m also not convinced that having your hand shaken is a good foundation for basing your vote on.
you can watch a live stream of the Yes Musselburgh meeting that starts at 7.30.
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/yes-musselburgh
The ingrained unthinking timidity of those Labour voters is truly depressing.
And regardless of the result tonight, 12k postal votes – which could account for over half the turnout – is a cause for great alarm.
“you can watch a live stream of the Yes Musselburgh meeting that starts at 7.30.
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/yes-musselburgh“
Who the fuck’s playing the harpsichord over the top of it?
Independence is too good for the likes of us
I can hear Johann saying that…perhaps they should adopt that as their main slogan.
Scottish Labour have only one tactic, and have done for a number of years now, and that is to attack the SNP. (I would exclude the Labour Voters for Independence group from that). They simply do not know what they believe in anymore, and blindly follow whatever their bosses in London tell them. All that is left in the Unionist brigade of SLAB is tribal hatred of the SNP. They are in effect following a Southern England Tory agenda. This, and also the defeats to the SNP in 2007 and 2011, have made them even more bitter, and mired in negativity. Simply put they have nothing to offer the people of Scotland under their present ‘leadership.’
All that is left in the Unionist brigade of SLAB is tribal hatred of the SNP. They are in effect following a Southern England Tory agenda. This, and also the defeats to the SNP in 2007 and 2011, have made them even more bitter, and mired in negativity. Simply put they have nothing to offer the people of Scotland under their present ‘leadership.’
Or policy framework, if they have one.
Any news from Donside.
As a natural political pessimist is there any chance SNP will lose this?
Marcia says:
20 June, 2013 at 7:30 pm
you can watch a live stream of the Yes Musselburgh meeting that starts at 7.30.
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/yes-musselburgh
If they can’t sort the sound out then it becomes one big turnoff, better to just video it then post it.
Just been watching a little bit of the Yes Musselburgh meeting. It’s ok, the sound quality is a little poor – but it’s audible and the picture has gone off-line a couple of times but it’s actually not to bad. I’m sure theres ways to improve the service.
What a good idea to stream these meetings. Blair Jenkins is speaking and doing a good job.
We will see more and yet more of the “relentless negativity” whatever the outcome of the Donside by-election. The fact is that British Labour and their Tory allies have nothing else to offer.
cynicalHighlander
I’ve now given up on it. I have only seen a few minutes as it cuts out all the time. A good idea but the technology is somewhat lacking.
Marcia
Ditto.
I think it is a fantastic idea/innovation(?). Perception of quality will depend somewhat on your expectations. This ain’t Auntie, thank whoever. A bit of work on lighting and sound should pretty much do it, I think. I thought the cut-outs were because of my crappy why-fi service, but possibly some work on that as well. Though, saying that, I’m over my limit right now but was getting an ‘un-choked’ stream. Don’t know the technical ins and outs.
re: “It’s not, if we’re honest, the most inspiring set of reasons, but it’s at least mixed. One is voting over a local issue, one over a national issue, one over independence, one because he doesn’t like Labour and another one because Alex Salmond is a nice man.”
Sorry I would disagree, these responses are inspiring because it means to vote SNP is now the norm, for everyday reasons for everyday people – the Labour “reasons” being rather sad has already been commented on. When ordinary people get fed up then regimes shake. That’s happening in the country I live in now which you have no doubt seen on TV the past two weeks. The woman was taken by actually having her hand shaken by the chief politician of the land – how often in her nearly 7 decades of a perhaps “uninspired” life has anyone similar bothered to even note her existence? Not being a taken-for-granted vote drone is an inspiring reason to vote SNP. Although officially the YES campaign is not “just” SNP I hope they don’t stint in making maximum use of the First Minister. The haters will probably still hate but all those undecided might just decide that having him as the decent prime minister of a self-respecting and respectable country is something worth voting for.
Woodside Polling Station, Aberdeen. With less than hour to the final whistle I can report from the kitchen windae that voters have been streamin in….they are easy to see waving their voting cards and chanting.
Earlier on the Tory sandwichboard was given a red card and it was booted into the long grass. Haud oan, haud oan the automatic front doors havent time to close before more voters come from the right. Its going to be a close call.
Erchie, Kitchen Windae, Woodside
Loved the harpsicord on the YES-Musselburgh stream lol! In all that was a great discussion, calm, throught-provoking and at times very humorous, and it looked like the venue was packed out as well.
Very soon now Henry McLeish is just going to come out and say it.
“Vote Yes as there is no other choice”.
Watch this space!
Archie,
Thanks for the moment by moment commentary from the Kitchen Windae, Woodside. Is this a service you will be performing for WOS on referendum night?
Signed A. Fan.
Last report – Kitchen Windae, Woodside – ‘Well it appears to be all over, the final rush has stopped and my box of Merlot is but a dribble with no gurgle. The touching moment was when a young couple exited the purple automatic doors and looked up at my SNP postered kitchen windae and gave it the thumbs up. I am not sure why the tear came to my eye……probably the end of the Merlot’ 🙁
Archie
o/t interesting stuff here
http://www.brandwatch.com/scottishindependencereferendum/
@ Braco
Should the good Lord spare me I will be having a party with sparkly rockets come September 18-19 2014. Bring you own plonk.
Whatever the outcome, be it a win for SNP with a reduced majority as is most likely or not, the MSM have most likely got their negative, sneering headlines prepared and ready to go- it is the Bitter Together Scotland Vote No MSM propaganda-unit way after all.
The Vote No mob have no positive version, or view, of a post-No-vote Scotland still within the Union. If there was one we’d have had it screamed at us from every MSM outlet in the UK each and every day. They only have negativity, smearing and lying ie “relentless negativity”. That will be their strategy every day up to, and including, 18.09.14.
@Archie-
It’s good to hear that the fine pastime of windae-hingin’ is not deid, but I don’t recall anyone doing it in such classy style.
I wouldn’t be overly surprised at a small SNP gain. Otherwise, within a few % of 2011.
UKIP will do shit. That’s probably what’s most important in terms of the bigger picture.
It was a belter for hingin’ this evening.
scottish_skier
Yeah, UKIP not getting any votes would be best outcome.
scottish_skier
If the SNP were to retain around the same share of the vote as it polled in 2011 it would be a first for a governing party after 6 years in office not to suffer a big mid term decrease. We will soon find out. There are more candidates than the last time but who had the better organisation and message? We shall find out soon, hopefully Aberdeen Council will speed up their normally slow counting.
re windae-hingin’ & related subjects-
The guy goes into B&Q and says ‘Ah’m wantin’ forty pallet ay brick, three ton ay sand, two ay cement.’
The assistant says ‘Oh, that’s a lot. You must be doing something very big.’
‘Ah’m buildin’ a barbecue,’ replies the customer.
‘Ehm, are you sure you need all that just to build a barbecue?’
‘Aye son. I live twenty-three up.’
@ ianbrotherhood
Oh you take me back to Paisley Road West tenements when fog was smog, trams truckled the streets and it was ‘de rigueur’ to get the belt at school every day. Do not try ‘windae hingin’ if you skoof to much.
@ scottish_skier
I agree with you regarding the small SNP gain. The style of campaigning is switched on and downright personal. If the folk in my deprived area take on board Mark McDonald as their spokesperson then there will be hope for the future.
McLeish reminds me of Simon Fraser, Lord Lovat. Is he part of the Rising, or agin it? He is precisely, carefully, calculatedly and consistently – both. He carries his political career like a waiter at a wild party, bearing a tray of champagne glasses through the crowd, tottering and splashing. Fortune bumps him this way and that, but he’ll never drop that precious tray.
I think that Henry McLeish will come around to the idea of YES in time, too. It strikes me that he’s already more than halfway there yet, and its not as if he’s got a huge future in the Labour party ahead of him to lose.
I also think Malcolm Chisholm is in the same boat.
Mr McLeish will be voting for Independence like any other sane and rational person. 🙂
Windae hingin: customer in B&Q asks to be directed to the methylated spirits. Assistant (I think they may be called ‘colleagues’ now) leads him to the appropriate aisle. ‘Get me wan fae the fridge’ says the customer.
Mr McLeish will be voting for Independence like any other sane and rational person. 🙂
Are we playing dares now?
Archie,
Invitation accepted. I will still expect a commentary frae the kitchen windae though, maybe even one frae oot the kitchen windae!
A. Fan
Ironically, that is how I dunted my head……normally a conversation killer. 🙂 Sorry, typed before thinking.
I notice that Steven Godden the BBC corespondent at the count is dressed appropriately.
Mundell and Yousif on the Newsnight panel could get interesting.
OT but I’ll tell you all a true story about B&Q in Bishopbriggs (Before they moved to the new warehouse).
To set the scene it was a Saturday morning (about 9am) and Mrs Robert Bryce had given me my orders for the day. In order to carry out said orders I had to make a trip to B&Q to buy some panel pins and a tube of mastic.
Just after 10am I headed off to B&Q to make my purchase. For those who were familiar with the old B&Q store in bishy they had some rather swish show bathrooms just as you walked into the store.
Imagine my surprise as the automatic doors slid open to reveal a drunken man with his trousers & pants round his ankles, meat and two veg on full show pissing in the show toilet whilst shouting at the security guard “can a no even hiv a fucking pish in peace?”.
The poor security guy was mortified and totally un-equiped to deal with a drunken man pissing in a toilet.
The wife and I had a good laugh about when I got home before I was ordered to complete my task.
Erchie and his Windae
Erchie sat at his windae a wee gless in his haun
He kept us in touch wi whit’s going on
The voters he’s counted baith in an oot
He’s commented weel he sure is a hoot
We’re invited tae his party in 2014
Bring yer ain plonk he says he’s ever so mean
But whit can we expect fae a loon in Donside
His sporran’s nailed shut wi his bawbees inside
The net curtains are shut noo he’s gawn tae his bed
Wi the plonk and the sun he’s got a sair head
Six unionists (if you include Glen Campbell, Brian Taylor and John Curtice) and one pro-independence on the BBC Newsnight Scotland coverage of Donside by-election.
I know this is not about independence, but it will be about independence, and when it is mentioned – six against one.
Robert Bryce,
I think that might have been me!
STV with Bernard Ponsoby far more telling and a brilliant femaile reporter at the counting station, laughing at labour’s Lewis MacDonald rant.
Hilarious and some great hosting with Ponsonby being an absolute credit to journalistic credibility in comparison to the dire boring bollocks of the shitey bbc effort next door.
The patter is funny, a link didn’t work and Ponsoby said, ‘…err,…..let’s switch over to the bbc!”.
The bbc has the professor with the whispy hair havering away as the STV version has the SNP candidate being congratulated in that forerunner thing that means the majority of the count is in…..typical eh? lol
STV is the one to look ot for if you want the news, particularly on serious news programs, the bbc haven’t a look in.
The bbc have fucking forgotten about the bloody election…..still fannying away a load of bollocks in a studio with no mention of Aberdeen!
I like it where the TV host and others are taking the mick out of Anas Sarwar.
Did somebody mention…..It would be interesting to hear if anyone thought of a duck.
Well done to Mark, and all the hard work done by everyone involved.
The SNP polled 20,000 people in the Donside ward about voting intentions in the Independence Referendum…
34% Yes
29% no
30% don’t know.
hmmm Interesting !
34% Yes
29% no
30% don’t know.
hmmm Interesting !
Very interesting (apart from showing an increase in YES). look how many have moved from NO to don’t know – and the next step is……….
YES 2014!
Train fares says:
“Very soon now Henry McLeish is just going to come out and say it.
“Vote Yes as there is no other choice”.
Watch this space!”
That would be a massive Coup for labour for independence. You cannot underestimate how important these guys are. One high profile Labour Member, like Mcleish moving into thier camp could open the floodgates.
Last night’s big winner was STV. The coverage from the count was insightful and on track, whilst in the studio Bernard refused to allow Sarwar to peddle his nonsense. I was particularly impressed by the journalist at the count whose face was a picture when Lewis Macdonald and the UKIP lord spoke their havers
”
John Lyons says:
21 June, 2013 at 9:37 am
Train fares says: “Very soon now Henry McLeish is just going to come out and say it.“Vote Yes as there is no other choice”.”
he may well do but I wouldnt welcome his support,
he was the disreputable person who gerrymandered the loss of 6000 square miles of Scottish sea because Tony Blair told him to do it,
and not once has he volunteered an excuse for why he did it?
mato 21 says:
20 June, 2013 at 6:48 pm
Angus McPee
Are you teaming up with a fresh spell check in Microsoft word?