Night owls
Posted on
June 20, 2013 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
Shall we have a Donside thread for those of us staying up to watch the result of a Scottish Parliament by-election (with some forays into Nigeria vs Uruguay in the Confederations Cup)? Why not, eh?
Hi Rev. If the SNP don’t get 110% of the vote in this by-election it will prove that voters have rejected independence and Labour are back.
I think it will be interesting to see how it goes, given the great result last time, and obviously the popularity of the previous MSP. Will there be a backsliding, or will there still be a srong endorsement of the SNP policies, or will the people even decide based on LOCAL issues rather than national policies?
I think SNP should win this steady.
McDonald seems to be a popular guy. Maybe a wee swing to Labour of 3-5% but SNP comfortable win.
How much does the SNP have to win by, for it to be a REAL win?
Here’s my predictions for all three by-elections today.
SNP will hold onto Aberdeen Donside in Holyrood, and Liberton/Gilmerton on Edinburgh Council.
Labour will narrowly retain the seat of North Glenrothes, Markinch and Leslie on Fife Council.
UKIP will lose their deposits on all three.
There will be much talk of Johann Lamont facing a leadership chellenge.
Spent the day knocking on doors confident we had a large percentage of the SNP vote accounted for
Well, I hope you all have fun, but work in the morning means that my pit is calling me.
Here’s hoping for the right result. 🙂
ShredderIsAlive
If based on last year’s local election first preference votes then the council seats would be the opposite of your prediction. SNP to hold Glenrothes and Labour to win in Edinburgh. However these are local elections with local factors in play.
Jeez, Ian Smart on another Babycham-fuelled Twitter spasm tonight.
Ian Smart ?@ianssmart
@Scotto_Voce @RevRichardColes Would you want to be a foreigner of any sort, let alone an English person, in an Independent Scotland?
Marcia
I’m basing my prediction on Glenrothes based on two factors. First would be low turnout, which in Fife tends to favour Labour. The second would be that the Labour Councillor that died there was rather popular, so it’s very easy for Labour to play off that for a sympathy vote.
My hope is that I’m wrong and the SNP make a clean sweep of things. Then maybe we might see someone on the Scottish Labour benches grow a spine and challenge Johann Lamont’s leadership.
Misread it as ‘Nigella vs Uraguay’ and wondered what further scandal was breaking out. Disappointed it’s only football after all.
Apparently Labour are quite happy with the postal vote. I bet they are.
i have stopped ‘windae hingin’ and now ‘couch potato’ I think that Mr Yousaf will be invited to my referendum party next year. D. Mundell is prevaricating and a rabbit caught in the headlights. I love it.
STV reporting Labour seem happy with postal votes. Let’s hope this is not another Glenrothes.
Labour happy with postal vote…..no surprise there then.
STV reporting Labour seem happy with postal votes
Let`s hope this isn`t the defining statement of the by-election.
Maureen Watt looks quite relaxed and happy.
I have to laugh at Slab guy claiming that the SNP were guilty of negative campaigning and that they had a very positive campaign. He was also distraught over the “personal attacks” too. He is also trying to turn it into an ANTI SNP diatribe, and going on about NATIONAL issues as opposed to LOCAL ones.
Lewis MacDonald is very excited…
“Lewis MacDonald is very excited…” I’d say he’s gaun aff his heid!
Stop, please, Lewis. It’s national TV and you’re looking a bit silly now.
I see that Slab are resorting to bluster and lies again? Any surprises there? I am not surprised to see him shouting down the SNP member during HER response to a question asked of HER. As she says, Slab want it both ways; the SNP talk about nothing apart from independence yet they don’t talk about it too…Weird that, innit?
Lewis MacDonald. What a pillock.
Iain says:
Jeez, Ian Smart on another Babycham-fuelled Twitter spasm tonight.
Cricky, I’m beginning to think Ian Smart is Yes Scotland’s best campaigner. Coles obviously thinks hes an ejit.
Aw, I missed this. Was it a full-on meltdown?
Ponsonby much better over on the ‘regional’ channel 😉
What is it about Brian Taylor that does my nut in? Here’s hoping he goes to bed early again.
Anyone want to predict who will challenge Johann Lamont’s leadership when she loses Aberdeen Donside?
Is this the Ian Smart Twitter meltdown? It`s becoming a regular habit.
https://twitter.com/ianssmart/status/347839754596925441
Yes. But what an admirable smackdown from Rev. Coles.
Anas Sarwar went full retard on STV.
Never go full retard Anas.
Ponsonby and Alex Neil have just accused Sarwar of being ‘all over the place’.. <weeshockedsmiley>…. not
Labour have held the Markinch seat on Fife Council according to Political Betting.
Hahaha!! Twitter Tory fool Allan D S Smith was a candidate in Glenrothes today, and is pleased to have come third. Must be awful being so unpopular.
https://twitter.com/allandssmith/status/347849482051915776
Rev, Something for the night owls.
Hague – “Safer Together”
so let’s consider UK v Norway
UK Forces Personnel Killed – Last 30 years –
2013/13- Syria War – Killed ??
2013/13 – Mali Conflict – killed 0
2011/11 – Libyan War – unreported special forces
2003/9 – Iraq War – killed 222
2001/13 – Afghan War – killed 444
2000/2 – Sierra Leone – killed 1
1998/99 – Kosovo War – killed 72
1992/96 – Bosnian War – as above
1998/99 – Desert Fox – Bombing of Iraq
1991/92 – Gulf War – killed 47
1982/83 – Falklands War – killed 259
Last 30 Years – killed 1,045 – plus
1969/98 – Norther Ireland – killed 2,617
Norwegian Forces Personnel Killed – Last 30 years
1991/92 – Gulf War – killed 0
1998/99 – Kosovo War – killed 1
1992/96 – Bosnian War – as above
2001/13 – Afghan War – killed 10
Last 30 Years – killed 11
Source – Wikipedia
Pretty interesting tweet from Kevin Pringle:
SNP by-election survey of 19,183 voters in #Donside on #indyref – Yes 34%, No 29%, DK 37%: no #Yes majority yet, but all to play for in 2014
Political editor of Northsound reckons it’s an SNP win with roughtly 40%, with the Lib Dems possibly in 3rd.
Will I? Should I? Yeh, why not?
Did somebody mention Anas?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Anas_superciliosa.jpg
I’m going to STV now – I’ve spotted Anas Sarwar, quality commentary guaranteed.
“Don’t Leave me this way” 🙂
@ShredderAlive
“There will be much talk of Johann Lamont facing a leadership chellenge.”
Shhhhhh!
Glenrothes North by-election result is as follows
Labour 1896
SNP 1711
Conservatives 272
UKIP 176
Liberal Democrats 83
25 ballots spoiled and the turnout was 29.2%
And Rev, Not for a second suggesting any disrespect to those who have lost their life in the service of their country. I’m simply pointing out the difference between two nations states approach to global peace keeping duties.
38% turnout is pretty poor.
I would love a shot of a transfusion of what Ian Curtice has in his veigns for an hour.
Just waiting for 2 hours now of how how bad a result it is for a SNP win with a reduced majority.
Cheese toasties and the fitba for a wee bit
Hahaha!! Twitter Tory fool Allan D S Smith was a candidate in Glenrothes today, and is pleased to have come third. Must be awful being so unpopular.
Yeah, thon Allan D. Smith is the worst kind of obnoxious Tory. If I`m being kind, I think the technical term is twat.
Aw. No UKIP landslide?
How much coverage will this get on breakfast tv then I wonder?
AH! Sarwar just admitted that the SNP is our main party. Progress!
Shit – no wine left. Must be bedtime. Night all.
aaargh! Just tuned into Newsnight to hear Kezia Dugdale saying the SNP campaign has been “very cynical, with SNP leaflets saying that Mark McDonald will save your school, well he won’t save your school because will be in Holyrood voting for independence.”
Is this morons night at the BBC Scottyland? Oh wait it’s Glenn Campbell and big Brian hosting with special (not mystery) guest Prof John Curtice … nope can’t watch another Union love-in.
Sarwar misquoting someone from the SNP again. Surprise, surprise.
Who is the UKIP liar on STV? Some biscuit I believe?
They’re interviewing Monckton now? Oh please ask him if he was a science advisor to the Thatcher Government, and his stance on climate change.
Lord Monckton just alleged that a crime had been committed, and he doesn’t seem to have informed the police. More UKIP bullshit. And then he said Salmond had been chucked out of Labour? Hahaha!
Glenn Campbell “now Brian looks at the recent polling for the referendum” … jeezuz christo give me strength.
I’m off to bed.
Jings. I forgot this was on. I just finished the main text of my Lockerbie book, just a couple of bleeding chunks to stitch into appendices now, and it’s done. I was going to do the cocoa and bed thing, but I may stay up a wee bit longer….
Monckton on newsnight.
I always thought ‘swivel-eyed’ was a figure of speech.
Monckton – a fine example of the breeding practices of the British upper classes!
Tory loses but then he was always going to lose but thinks 3rd or 4th place in a FBTP election is “credible”
Libdem loses but it was always labours election to win, so thats ok and is going to have some champers to celebrate a moral victory.
The two then bloviate at length about how the low turnout is actually a defeat for the SNP and the wheels have come off the SNP juggernaut. Yes the people of Donside have woken up to the evils of the SNP decided not to vote to show their solidarity with a cartoonishly inept array of losers.
Now we see serious air time given to the UKIP candidate who might get to keep his “deposit” Could this be the break through moment for UKIP. Has Scotland finally embraced UKIP after all?
erm no they haven’t the stupid bastard lost, but I have to sit here having my intelligence get insulted as they try to portray a defeat as a victory.
Seriously people we need to win in 2014, so we can open the windows and get the smell of stupidity out of the seats.
It really annoys me when British Nationalist politicians always complain that they are every bit as Scottish as people in Scotland who want independence. They clearly are not otherwise they would be fighting for what is Scotland’s interests. Its the typical 3 versus 1 scenario and a spade whould be called a spade.
If you are willing to fight against Scotland’s interests you are either misguided or you are lieing, Its as simple as that.
OT
Got this link from a deeply unhappy bunny via an old chat network :
http://englandcalling.wordpress.com/2011/05/06/scottish-independence-yes-but-only-on-these-terms/
looks like SNP have held according to STV. Sarwar in apologist mode blaming historical boundary changes hahaha tool!
oooh,
fifi labonbon Dugdale – who is Labour – wants to dump Trident……..
SNP win 9814 , Labour 7789
Result: electorate 38% turnout
SNP 9814
Labour 7789
Lib 1940
Con 1791
UKIP 1128
SNP hold 🙂
SNP 41.9
Lab 33.31
LD 8.29
Con 7.66
UKIP 4.8
Greens 1.7
National Front 1
Christians 0.9
SDA 0.14
ah but Lab are up a whacking 174 votes that’s a 2.28% increase… quite a victory!
Got to love the christian chaps name tho
Shocked at BBC, labour did not get an easy time from Cambell or the nutty professor . wonder if the pressure is on behind the scenes.
also
Can anyone hear the scribbling just now spewing from the pencils of the Labour Spinners
Brian Adam had a high personal vote it and doesn’t always transfer to the replacement candidate. Labour only went up by only 4% with them being in opposition at both Westminster and Holyrood and should have done better. I was worried when Brian died and I thought it would be a more difficult hold than it turned out to be.
Good Morning and Goodnight.
It looks like overall many previous SNP voters couldn’t be motivated to get to the polling stations, complacency perhaps?
Bizzarly Anwar claimed a 9% rise in the labour vote and quipped that would wipe out 20 SNP seats. I think the dear boy is in the realms of fantasy again. They certainly didn’t get that swing for sure. Looks like the labour vote stagnated a bit as did the Tories and Libdems.
Goodnight Marcia and thanks to you and all the other night owls for keeping me in touch.
Night night.
A final thought, if you compare it with the local election results last year the SNP is up by 3% and Labour much the same. I think last year it was 38% to 33%.
Interesting stat; SNP polled 19,000 people on Donside during the by-election campaign on voting intentions in the referendum … YES 34%; NO 29%; DK 37%, as stated on Newsnight just before programme end.
Interesting times ahead. I wonder if BT are doing the same internal polls like this and getting similar results, maybe that’s why they’re bricking it and getting ever-more desperate.
Goodnight.
The Herald has the Indy ref story:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/by-election-indyref-survey-yes-34-no-29-dont-know-37.1371770814
Correct me if I’m wrong here, but did I hear Brian Taylor say he used to write speech’s for tony blair ?
Mark Mcdonald wins with a reduced majority of 9814 votes 42%
labour 33% really? 7789 votes
tories 1791
libdems 1940
ukip 1128 (loses deposit)
Ye gads, what have Labour come to when they can’t even organise a postal vote fraud anymore?
Good to see Mark holding the seat for the SNP.
That’s actually a higher turnout than I expected, to be honest, and despite the fact that they lost their deposit, its still a concern to see UKIP getting over a thousand votes.
Labour hold onto its seat in Glenrothes? I live in Glenrothes and I have to say it has a high proportion of sad uneducated fools, many of whom I know personally, and one thing I have had to accept recently are these people have the closed minds and attitudes of what I can only describe as gormless dummies,There is no hope of education where they are concerned, It really is a lost cause.You only have to walk about this town for one day to know all you need to know about it, A poor deprived area full of pitifully educated people.(although no different to any Labour run council area) Time to escape I think.By the way am I the only one who feels that anytime you read comments on any blogs or in any newspaper by labour supporters that they all seem to sound a bit? Well THICK really?
Seasick Dave says:
21 June, 2013 at 6:19 am
Ye gads, what have Labour come to when they can’t even organise a postal vote fraud anymore?
tea, meet keyboard… bugger 🙂
Turnbull Drier
It can be a bugger getting Aberdeen deid folk out to vote; they’re awfy thrawn 🙂
There’s a bit of nudge nudge, wink wink going on about postal voting. If there’s a problem, or a potential problem with the postal voting system, shouldn’t we be doing something to publicise what it is, and start doing something to sort it it now?
To be honest the UKIP vote is higher than I would have expected – all the media coverage for Farage must have had an effect. Anyway, good win for Mark, he has been a decent MSP so far and none of the other candidates were anywhere close in terms of competence.
Even though there’s very little difference at the policy level we’re lucky there’s still all this factionalism in the Better Together coalition
If they’d done the sensible thing and run a joint Labour/Tory/Lib-Dem candidate they’d have won easily.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22993752 (‘200 bodies needed post-independence). I take issue with ‘needed’ on reading.
Next fearbomb. I got bored reading the list, although I imagine someone with more patience than me would be able to analyse it better.
Heard Fiona Stalker on BBC Radio Scotland this morning refer to the SNP as the Nats.
Labour vote increased by 100 or so mainly Tory voters seduced by the notion that a By Election would kill Nationalism “stone dead”.
In the By Election, and according to friend in the Edinburgh Council by election, all the unionist parties harped on about independence in their literature and Labour cars had slogan UKOK stickers on their cars.
Also in Edinburgh, Labour once again broke the rules by fixing banners to council railings near polling stations, They were warned about this previously but then rules are only for the little people and not for the peoples party.
The unionist spin so far has been hilarious. Apparently, the SNP only won because the by-election wasn’t about independence. But their majority being cut shows people were rejecting independence.
Err, which is it guys?
So Labour managed to get their voters out (or maybe helped fill in their postal vote cards) but made no real gains in terms of votes. The lower turnout appears to have affected only the SNP in any way which is unsurprising given they were predicted to win comfortably. UKIP lost their deposit.
Fine. Little obvious change on the 2011 result when turnout is accounted for; maybe SNP a touch down due to the loss of popular vote for Brian Adam. Some libs returning home now that the referendum is guaranteed.
The indy ref survey result was the most significant result of the day with Yes ahead of the No.
Labour can pretend as much as the like that this was a good result for them. What matters is that it wasn’t.
@Helen Yates:
I wouldn’t pay much attention to the Fife council result. Single transferable voting is a useless system when it comes to by-elections.
Decent result on Donside, but the postal vote MUST be investigated somehow.
“The indy ref survey result was the most significant result of the day with Yes ahead of the No.”
Indeed, and it mirrors what seems to be the case when chapping on doors elsewhere in Aberdeen too – undecideds in front, followed by Yes, with No lagging behind.
On the postal vote, it would be good to know the breakdown percentage compared to the over all percentages.
do we have stats on the postal votes or are they all mixed in together?
The indy ref result was indeed interesting. The sample size was certainly impressive. However, I am not sure what YES 34%, NO 29%, in an SNP area, means for the rest of the country? Game on?
42% is a good share of the vote and a win is a lovesome thing. That UKIP lost their deposit is just the cherry on the cake. I always turn the sound down the morning after. You can tell who won by looking at the faces and the words that come out of those faces are just so much waffle. The eyes have it.
There has been a sustained media attack on the SNP for 6 years now and mid term in their second term of office they can still see of Labour. That is good going. Despite everything, inward investment, employment, education, crime, the SNP have delivered. They are a good Government and safe hands. Putting aside independence for a moment, would anyone really want to go back to the mismanagement of the last Labour Government. In fact I would say that McConnell was more competent than the people they have in charge now so it woud actually be worse. Independence is a stand alone issue which we will get to vote on but regardless of whether it is Yes or No I would still vote SNP in 2016 because I want Scotland to prosper. I want a Governmen that fights for Scotland not one that runs with its tail between its legs everythime Party Central in London says no. Who can forget Wendy’s face when Gordon so obviously slapped her down in Westminster. I felt humiliated on her behalf and I wasn’t even voting for her.
Could also be a few shy NO voters, if they knew it was SNP activists polling them.
“Doug says:
21 June, 2013 at 8:35 am
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22993752 (’200 bodies needed post-independence). I take issue with ‘needed’ on reading. Next fearbomb. I got bored reading the list, although I imagine someone with more patience than me would be able to analyse it better.”
facile argument as all of these bodies have people working for them which we pay a relative share of, in an independent Scotland we’d still be paying for them but the jobs would be here.
It would create a jobs bonanza
Actually listened to GMS on the school run just to find out the result…
Could they have been more bitter and slanted in their analysis?
Anne Begg gets first comment and SNP get fourth comment with all the spin in the world about what the result “Isn’t” … Talk about doom and gloom
I do wonder about how much of the Labour increase is due to media propaganda?
Well done SNP.
Shall the new list man take the oath in his native tongue?
Pleased the commentariat are unhappy.
It all bodes well for the future.
A Free Sovereign Scotland. Soon !
Doug says:
21 June, 2013 at 8:35 am
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22993752 (’200 bodies needed post-independence). I take issue with ‘needed’ on reading.
It’s pretty much their “500 questions” all over again. I remember one commentator saying in relation to that “It’s not a list of things needing duplicated post-indy, it’s essentially a list of things.”
If anyone asks you about it, just point to the millions of welfare accounts that Scots managed for England. When the Scot Gov offered to share admin for a few years post-indy it was to allow *England* some time to set up the offices it lacks.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0042/00424088.pdf – pg 48 onwards.
Robert
I think he already has taken the oath and did so in French to add to the languages of the Parliament.
I have to confess to enjoying the pundits on the radio chewing wasps too. “Get it up ye” was my charitable thought.
The SNP won a mid term by-election by a good margin. In anyone’s book that is a triumph.
Regarding the 34% yes and the 37% DKs, I think a lot of people are playing their cards closed to their chests as some folk are worried about the snoops.
And before someone says ‘conspiracy theory’, remember it’s only the UK that have slapped a D notice on certain activities by the NSA.
John King
facile argument as all of these bodies have people working for them which we pay a relative share of, in an independent Scotland we’d still be paying for them but the jobs would be here.
It would create a jobs bonanza
And all the money from those jobs being spent in Scotland – how will we cope.
The unionists really do leave themselves open to ridicule.
Just merge the MOD with the BBC. Now let’s see you not pay your TV licence.
Luigi @ 09:14
The indy ref result was indeed interesting. The sample size was certainly impressive. However, I am not sure what YES 34%, NO 29%, in an SNP area, means for the rest of the country? Game on?
When leafleting/cavasing in Donside Some folk were saying “SNP government is great”, but not happy or unsure about Independence
I just cant believe over 7000 folk would vote for Willie Young. Especially after his car crash performance on local radio about the school closures. I would have, once, voted Labour because they were Labour and my folks voted for them, but surely there comes a time when you question that and it is not as if they haven’t given plenty of reasons for people to question them?
However, at least the Labour party didn’t really make any significant gain in Donside and and if they are basing any hope of recovery on this result, then they really must be desperate for any sign of the wind blowing their way.
Once people understand that an Independent Scotland would be pretty much the same as it is now, but rather than Westminster taking the oil revenue for the benefit of London and the South, Scotland would have a greater share which would be used to make Scotland a fairer more just society, then I believe the majority will vote Yes.
Just rerun the Lord Monckton interview. It obviously Barry Humphreys testing out a new upper class twit character, he can’t be real – can he ???
The 34% Yes chimes with other polls. It may be that the 37% DK is the scunner factor of constant negativity from the No to Scotland side. I don’t think people will suddenly swing from No to Yes. There will be a period of uncertainty where people start to emotionally distance themselves from the relentlessly depressing dirge from the No camp. Once they have split off it will be for the Yes camp to start attracting these now free agents. Many may simply not vote of course. However, at the end of the day if Yes Scotland can build that Yes number up to 40+% and many Don’t Knows stay at home then the prize is won.
What is encouraging is that the Yes number is edging up despite the non-stop daily scare stories. I think that might start to worry the Lie Commission at the heart of the No camp.
The 200 bodies- usual mix of bs and insanity: we’ll need to set up Public Health England? A BBC World Service? A Great Britain China Centre? A Marshall Aid Commemoration Commission? A Westminster Foundation For Democracy? (Oxymoron or what?) A Defence Nuclear Safety Committee? HS2 Ltd?
Many of the others should be scrapped right now as not fit for purpose Commissioners for the Reduction of the National Debt?
Yep that’s going well.
As my cockney tour manager used to say , you’re ‘avin’ a laff.
Its still fairly depressing that only 38% of people go out to vote and this is the greatest single reason of why Scotland may lose this referendum. Ignorance and apathy.
The vast majority of people do not care enough, so disenfranchised with the corruption and failed promises pf Westminster, the complete neglect and ambivalence towards Scotland.
Unfortunately instead of making people in Scotland demanding independence it has turned Scots away from politics and apathy and ignorance ensue. Its a very sad state of affairs and the media have done there upmost to provide shockingly amateur coverage of political affairs.
Its also pretty astonishing the amount of coverage that UKIP receives in front of the Scottish Greens. As Alex Neil said last night all three mainstream Westminster parties have all morphed into varying shades of tory blue and in Scotland they cooperate together in the Anti-Scottish Independence campaign which is there primary objective.
@HandandShrimp
I think what you say will come about. I’m convinced the majority of Scots are waiting to be sold on Independence. They have it in their heart and they just need that nudge for the head to agree. I don’t think the NO vote will garner more than 40% and I wonder if they will suffer from abstentions because (say Labour voters) of party loyalty vs country loyalty, so instead of voting NO, many might abstain in protest. The only vote I can see growing is YES and like yourself I see most of that coming from the Don’t Knows, so higher the DKs at this time the better.
@ Colin mccartney – He cant be real, can he?
Oh yes Colin and if you follow this and other links you will see what an utter nutter Christopher Monckton, 3rd Viscount of Brenchley really is. Here is one of his gems
Criticizing the campaign to save the Ravenscraig ironworks, Monckton wrote, “The Scots are subsidy junkies whingeing like a trampled bagpipe as they wait for their next fix of English taxpayers’ money.” This is believed to be the first use of the now well-known phrase “subsidy junkies”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Monckton,_3rd_Viscount_Monckton_of_Brenchley
Would really like to hear about the postal vote. Like others I simply can’t believe Willie Young got so many votes. As soon as he was selected it was an open goal for the SNP as he is so hopeless yet he still manages over 7,000 votes.Maybe in Glasgow but not Aberdeen,I hope.
Robyn – as sad as it is to see over 7,000 people voting for an idiot like Willie Young, he only got 174 more votes than Barney Crockett did in 2011. So there’s clearly a core Labour vote of over 7,000 that just won’t move.
Which just shows how poorly Labour did in this by-election. Six years of SNP government, halfway through a term, and Labour STILL can’t take advantage.
Reading WoS Twitter of last night’s events and I am thinking: when are SLAB going to take the microphone away from Sarwar? 😀
@HoraceSaysYes
“Good to see Mark holding the seat for the SNP.
That’s actually a higher turnout than I expected, to be honest, and despite the fact that they lost their deposit, its still a concern to see UKIP getting over a thousand votes.”
Making a couple of, admittedly biggish, assumptions, namely that NNW Aberdeen has a similar percentage of English voters to the city average (8.4%) and that those voters may have a similar tendency to vote UKIP as their compatriots South of the Border (26%) then getting on for half their support there could be simply down to that.
Of course that estimate could be substantially less or, indeed, substantially more, depending how far out those assumptions are and in what direction. Still something to consider though.
@Doug Daniel – “Robyn – as sad as it is to see over 7,000 people voting for an idiot like Willie Young, he only got 174 more votes than Barney Crockett did in 2011. So there’s clearly a core Labour vote of over 7,000 that just won’t move.”
That’s it on the head Doug. Forget all the rest of the statistics and percentages, the Labour vote remained more or less static. There is probably that same residual Labour vote in most working class constituencies in Scotland. The trick in the referendum is to convince everyone who is not die hard Labour to vote YES. In saying that, I’ll wager there will be many a YES vote among the die hard Labourites.
@ Doug, @ Bill,
I think it was just that Willie Young was, even by Labour standards, a very poor candidate and I thought that might put off a few folk. But, yes, comparing both years there is no significant gain to Labour and they are in denial if they think this is a good result for them. At end of – SNP still hold the seat and the poll conducted showing a 34% for Yes gives me hope for the referendum. As you say Bill, there will be quite a few of that hard core 7000 who will also be voting Yes.
“It tells us, if we needed to be told, that the two parties who will be fighting most obviously to be in command of the Scottish Parliament when those elections come round, are Labour and the SNP. They are still the most predominant parties in Scotland. ” – Brian Taylor BBC
Really Brian…is that what Donside tells us?
macdoc @ 10:35. Have to disagree with you. This was a mid-term byelection in which the SNP was widely predicted to win. Given those circumstances I would say that the voters most likely to stay home were SNP supporters; why bother when we’re going to win anyway? I can only see Mark’s majority increasing in 2016 when it’ll be a full-on general election for our first independent parliament.
@Robyn -“As you say Bill, there will be quite a few of that hard core 7000 who will also be voting Yes. ”
I think one of the tactics that we must employ is to get across to die hard Labourites that they will have an opportunity to vote Labour after a YES vote i.e. in 2016. I am convinced that many Labour voters think that a YES vote means Alex and the SNP for evermore. It is a mythical situation created in part by the unionists, with their talk of dictatorships etc. Make it crystal clear to folk that the independence process in in two stages 1. Vote YES 2. Vote for the party of their choice in 2016 and we will win. In saying that, I’ll be sticking with the SNP.
Slightly of thread and also a bit personal.
This appalling anti-Scotish negativity from SLAB has me minded to actively campaign against them in the future. I think many people will be similarly motivated.
Things shall never be the same again… whatever the Indy result may be.
We need to get out there and convert this Labour support and make sure they are voting yes.
@HanandShrimp
“I don’t think people will suddenly swing from No to Yes.”
Don’t forget the glory hunters. By that I mean that not insignificant percentage who are inclined to vote for those they think will win. Given the poll evidence at this moment in time, those would most likely be in the no camp, if at some point in the campaign the expectation threshold moves towards Yes, they will switch.
@Robert Kerr
“This appalling anti-Scotish negativity from SLAB has me minded to actively campaign against them in the future. I think many people will be similarly motivated.
Things shall never be the same again… whatever the Indy result may be.”
While I am sure we all come close to smashing the TV on many occasions, we should keep trying (and I often fail myself) to understand where they are coming from.
For me, there are two basic types, first the professional career politician who is simply doing his/her job. In many cases, I think, secretly, they may even be quite relaxed about independence. Think Jim Sillars before and after his Damascene conversion. I’m sure we can all think of candidates which might fit that description. Once, as Conan Doyle’s creation would say “The game’s afoot!” many of those would, I suspect, work quite happily in an independent Scotland and even contribute positively.
A smaller but disproportionately empowered group, for whatever reasons buried in their psyche, genuinely believe that continued dependence is the only viable future for Scotland. While it may be more difficult for them to work constructively in their field in a post independence Scotland and certainly not in the sinecured positions they have enjoyed up till now courtesy of Brit State machinations, we should nevertheless have a degree of sympathy and understanding for their plight. Every one of us is the sum of our own personal experience and capacity for reasoning.
So, now we have it. The SNP have held the seat as expected, but as many other comments here have pointed out, how come a very poor Labour candidate managed to get 7,000 votes?
We have two possibilities; his vote incredibly held up, which says a lot to me about Labour’s voters’ view of the life we Scots should have under Westminster, or there has been postal vote fraud.
If, as I suspect, it is has been postal vote fraud, be it, only by a few stuck through the system, these are a few too many, but if it’s wholesale manipulation, by any party, Labour being the foremost, heads have to roll. Get this sorted out now.
Chick.
I’m sorry I cannot have sympathy for those who openly enjoy doing Scotland down. Admittedly many of them are in BBC Scotland or are favoured experts and on screen their body language and facial actions are very visible indications of their internal delight in so doing. I often read about the “visceral hatred of SLAB for the SNP”
If this is real it behoves us all to try to understand.
It was noticeable that the MSM were trying to convince everyone that the SNP were under threat from Labour in this seat…but then about a week before the poll they began to report that labour had all but conceded that the SNP would romp it.
This is an old and usually successful tactic employed by Scotland’s MSM on Labours behalf, in order to convince any voters who get behind a candidate who is a threat to Labour, not to bother voting…because they have already won.
It probably worked in Donside, with a few SNP voters not bothering or too busy and thinking their vote wasn’t needed because Labour had already said they didn’t expect to win.
So don’t worry troops, this tired old tactic won’t work in the referendum.
@Robert Kerr
I quite understand.
BTW was not suggesting we do not ourselves go on the offensive.
Just pointing out that there is a question regarding the lack of reasoning capacity which tends to be a characteristic of dependency mentality yet we have the paradoxical situation that those exhibiting that occupy elevated positions. Elevated, that is, above their level of competency. That is not a normal scenario for any organisation.
That circle is, I believe, squared by the machinations of the British State and their requirement for loyalty above ability.
As such, our real ire should be targeted at the string pullers rather than the puppets.
How depressing to think that 33% of the people who live in Scotland have no thinking abilities and the imagination of a gnat.
Lurker/John/Shinty
Thanks for that. Was just about to start work and the long monotonous list had my eyes bleeding. My impression is that (1) many of these bodies are unnecessary/bizarre (2) we are already paying for these services via tax and (3) we could pay people in Scotland to do them, creating jobs/local revenues for shops etc etc.
Thanks Chick,
That helped a lot and did none of us any harm.
Now i’m off for a week’s chill-out in Co. Kerry far from the power of Westminster.
It shall be a welcome change not to see the Garda Síochána na hÉireann as akin to our own somewhat oppressive agents of the State.
I shall miss WoS since no internet.
I shall return.
UKIP up 4% to 4.83%
Greens 1.7%
just wondering who has the moral authority about being on the Question Time panel in Scotland with Dimbleby?