One paper, two polls, no information

Posted on January 14, 2012 by Rev. Stuart Campbell

The Telegraph on Tuesday: Independence 29%, Union 54%. Gap 25%

The Telegraph on Saturday: Independence 40%, Union 43%. Gap 3%.

This, dear readers, is why you should never take any notice of opinion polls with samples of under 1000 people (in both these cases, around 500 Scottish respondents). Exactly what knowledge has the Telegraph gleaned and passed on to a breathlessly expectant nation from these two surveys, presumably each conducted at substantial cost, just five days apart? That the gap the SNP must bridge by autumn 2014 between support for independence and opposition to it is somewhere between 25% and 3%. Well, that pretty much settles everything, doesn’t it?

(PS Some interesting background on the Saturday poll here.)

Category analysis, media, psephology, scottish politics
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Rev. Stuart Campbell on The Jokers: ““Interesting to see RevStu again gloating at SNP failure. Perhaps he’s right to insist that the SNP are no longer…” Jun 8, 15:30

Dave on What We Don’t Know Now: “Swinney talks in abstract terms: “And that comes about by the SNP performing much better, of getting into a commanding…” Jun 8, 15:11

Hatey McHateface on What We Don’t Know Now: ““Whose niece is she?” That’s just so baaadddd. And I’m loving it!” Jun 8, 15:02

Stuart LAW on What We Don’t Know Now: “Believing in Independence, and being willing to vote for it, are two very different things. Because we’ve all seen what…” Jun 8, 14:59

Campbell Clansman on What We Don’t Know Now: “Since the running average of polls shows that support for Indy ISN’T above 50%; And since the voters repeatedly vote…” Jun 8, 14:58

Hatey McHateface on The Jokers: “Hi George, Thanks for the update. I was referring to Ferguson’s OG for Iceland

Good luck with the ongoing…” Jun 8, 14:55

George Ferguson on The Jokers: “@Hatey McHateface What Ferguson are you referring to here? Here is a wee update from me. I got an estimate…” Jun 8, 14:37

Aidan on The Jokers: “I don’t know who is more insane, the people continually competing with each other to offer the most insane, delusional,…” Jun 8, 14:16

duncanio on What We Don’t Know Now: “The First Minister in an interview reported in The Sunday National today said: “My challenge is to make sure that…” Jun 8, 14:07

Rev. Stuart Campbell on What We Don’t Know Now: “Larkhall was part of the constituency for the 14 years the SNP have held it.” Jun 8, 13:49

Gaelstorm on What We Don’t Know Now: “I kent before

” Jun 8, 13:48

gm on What We Don’t Know Now: “A logical, fair assessment. Fairer than I would be to the SNPs controlling clique. With support for Independence above 50%…” Jun 8, 13:43

Allison Graham on What We Don’t Know Now: “Agee with all of the above Stu. If Scotland wants a different future folk must work in reality not fantasy…” Jun 8, 13:26

Ian McCubbin on What We Don’t Know Now: “Still no mention of vast majority of Independence voters of which there must be about 1000000, and there 2nd vote…” Jun 8, 13:22

Dickie Tea on What We Don’t Know Now: “Don’t forget the Larkhall factor which would have bolstered Reform” Jun 8, 13:16

lothianlad on The Jokers: “As ever Mia, you are 100% correct!” Jun 8, 12:38

DMcV on The Jokers: “The important thing is to keep Reform UK out but that’ll be an even bigger battle in the main Holyrood…” Jun 8, 12:24

DMcV on Tell Them You’re Frightened: “Doesn’t really address any point I made, RevStu, but there you go.” Jun 8, 12:17

Hatey McHateface on The Jokers: “It’s really wicked to hope somebody takes her down into the tunnels to sample at first hand, for a year…” Jun 8, 10:27

TURABDIN on The Jokers: “OF COURSE to many in native Scottish politics this is by far more important. https://archive.is/fWe1Y The owl and the pussy…” Jun 8, 10:11

Hatey McHateface on The Jokers: “OK, Xaracen, I stand corrected. You and Mia both. I constantly challenge you to give us some examples of how…” Jun 8, 10:04

Hatey McHateface on The Jokers: “Thanks for your reply, Alf. I’m very happy with the idea of re-instating the Scottish Crown. That’s exactly the kind…” Jun 8, 09:55

Xaracen on The Jokers: ““you would have noticed that Mia writes off every democratic vote in Scotland as illegal or invalid when it does…” Jun 8, 09:40

Alf Baird on The Jokers: ““People don’t like being made a fool of.” Yes, quite, and in this regard we are still awaiting the response…” Jun 8, 09:28

Hatey McHateface on The Jokers: “You may have a point, Alf. Never mind the 5.5 million Scots who have been hoodwinked by the hoax. There’s…” Jun 8, 08:47

robertkknight on The Jokers: ““Would Scots crowdfund such a judicial review of the ToU?” This one would!” Jun 7, 22:53

Alf Baird on The Jokers: “The petrifaction of Scotland’s elected national representatives and their ‘lack of courage at the decisive moment’ (as predicted by Fanon)…” Jun 7, 21:49

Hatey McHateface on The Jokers: “How do you account for Ferguson? Has he been colonised?” Jun 7, 20:19

Insider on The Jokers: “Hallelujah!” Jun 7, 20:05

Xaracen on The Jokers: “Its not the Act of Union, whichever one you had in mind that’s invalid; it’s the Treaty of Union that…” Jun 7, 19:26

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