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Just over the next hill

Posted on June 09, 2020 by

Good news, everyone – there’s been another surge.

Go back to your constituencies and prepare for indyref2! Yes, again.

Because we’ve been here before, haven’t we?

The latest polls have seen Yes support “surge” to, um, two points lower than it was four years ago in the immediate wake of the Brexit vote.

Except it’s arguably rather worse that that, because another poll that same weekend actually had Yes at a dazzling 59%.

(This was a 10-point advance on nine months earlier, when we’d been “a whisker away from independence” on 49% with the Brexit vote still to come.)

But let’s be generous and discount that 59% poll as an outlier – it was by ScotPulse, not one of the usual British Polling Council pollsters, and nothing else has ever come close to it. Let’s stick with 54% as the true position after the EU referendum.

The following four years have by common consensus been the most shambolic, inept, chaotic, malicious, stupid, destructive and incompetent in the entire history of the governance of the United Kingdom.

The (mis)management of Brexit has by far eclipsed even the most apocalyptic comic predictions of satirists, let alone serious political commentators, and the only challenge to its clown crown has been the ham-fisted handling of a global pandemic which has seen the UK record by far the worst per-capita fatality rates of any country on the planet, with over 60,000 people dead, the economy wrecked and no end in sight.

And yet faced with the greatest living argument of all time for Scottish independence, the SNP, at the de facto head of the Yes movement, has somehow contrived to see support for its primary goal fall backwards two points in the polls, halving the lead from eight points to just four. And that’s still the highest it’s been since 2016.

But we’re constantly enjoined to celebrate this fact as evidence of the war against the Union being within measurable distance of its end, like the hapless citizens of Oceania in “1984” rejoicing at the increase in their chocolate rations to 20g a week.

It’s difficult to understand how this has happened, given how many times support has “surged” in those four years. Extra-specially alert readers will recall, for example, the “breathtaking transformation” of March 2017, and how “astonishingly far” Yes had at that point come since the indyref.

That was for a poll with Yes at 50.5%, four points DOWN on the Survation figures from nine months before. Two separate polls a week later both gave No leads of 11 points, exactly where it had been on referendum day

Luckily just a few days later, support was “soaring” again.

The poll in question, the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (which offers multiple options including the status quo and the total dissolution of Holyrood, and is only comparable to itself), had actually recorded support for independence at 46%, which was indeed a record high for the SSAS but still a minority and only one point above the 2014 result.

The real upside, though, was learning that WE, not the Tories at Westminster, would be choosing the best date for a second referendum to capitalise on these figures.

We’re not too sure what happened to that promise. But excitingly, within a couple of months things got even better.

In May 2017 the polls had surged from 50.5% to 51%, which the National described as the “highest since [the] EU referendum”, even though we’re pretty sure 51 is less than 54. And only a year later – two years ago today – it was almost time to pounce.

Because there was yet another surge to come.

(That figure was for a non-standard question contrasting independence to a post-Brexit UK. The numbers for the more conventional standalone independence question in the same poll were 49% Yes, 51% No.)

So in September 2018, 15 months after a snap UK general election in which Theresa May had lost her majority and even the SNP’s trimmed-down cohort of 35 MPs now held considerable arithmetical leverage in the Commons, we were back – sort of, with the benefit of a slightly loaded question – at the dizzy heights of 52%, again a mere two points down on where we’d been two years previously.

But happily there was no end in sight to the unstoppable momentum of progress, as we’d discover in just under a year. Because by August 2019, a Lord Ashcroft poll found that support had once again surged – from that 52% to, um, 52% (excl. DKs).

Surely it could surge no further? But wait!

Just six months later, another “massive surge” took support from a lowly 52% to a stratospheric, dizzying 52%By February this year, after so many huge surges and breathtaking transformations, we were back within just two points of where we’d been in June 2016, all thanks to the glorious and bold leadership of Big Sister. And last week, four months on, we surged further still, to a mighty 52%.


The reality, as readers with an alert eye for sarcasm may have spotted, is that Yes support – measured by the most generous criteria at the bounds of credibility – hasn’t moved an inch since the days following the Brexit vote. We’ve fluctuated a few points both ways within the standard polling margin of error, with each fluctuation downwards being quietly glossed over and each corresponding uptick hailed as a revolution and the beginning of the tidal wave sweeping away Westminster rule forever.

Given the astonishing, calamitous circumstances of those four years for Scotland as a part of the UK, that’s a political and strategic failure on an epic scale. The average Yes vote, excluding DKs, in the 76 polls since that 54% in June 2016 is… 46.6%.

For comparison, the average Yes vote of the last 20 opinion polls before the 2014 referendum excluding DKs was 48.2%. That’s the “breathtaking transformation” and how “astonishingly far” we’ve come – after the biggest mess the UK could make, we’re now down 1.6 points on where we were before we lost.

(If you include the entire official campaign period, which ran from May to September of 2014 and encompasses 39 polls, the Yes average was 46%. So yay, we’re up 0.6%.)

Yes has led in just eight of the 76 post-Brexit polls. (Or five out of 73 since Theresa May became Prime Minister.) The positive news is that four of those leads have come since Boris Johnson took over as PM a little under a year ago, but it’s still only four out of the 17 polls conducted in that period – less than a quarter.

Of those 17 polls, the four with a Yes lead have had an average margin of 2.5 points. Three have been tied. The remaining 10 have had an average No lead of 5.1 points.

Only once since Theresa May walked into 10 Downing Street in July 2016 after the Brexit vote have there been two polls in a row showing a Yes lead. (Conducted within days of each other at the end of this January, immediately before the UK formally left the EU, recording leads of 1% and 3%.)

Even if the SNP had a plan to secure a second referendum – which we know they don’t, which they can’t afford and which they’re already briefing against – that’s a very long way short of an irresistible march to an inevitable outcome.

Getting two margin-of-error Yes majorities in a row ONCE in four years is plainly not even remotely close to a “settled will”, no matter how rose-tinted your indy spectacles.

Readers, we’re going nowhere fast. We need someone at the wheel who knows where the accelerator pedal is, before we run out of road.

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  1. 09 06 20 10:56

    Just over the next hill | speymouth

193 to “Just over the next hill”

  1. Mike Lothian says:

    Do you still want independence?

  2. Ruglonian says:

    Thank fuck it’s finally been laid out – I’m sick to death of seeing this nonsense time and time again!

  3. P says:

    This current SNP have been drip ? feeding hope, just enough to hang onto followers.
    Wishy’s tweet at the end says it all

  4. Jason Smoothpiece says:

    Sigh woe is us and our families.

    Controversial idea, SNP start an Independence campaign, you know a real one.

    If we don’t get shifting we will certainly suffer under another decade of Tory rule.

    Simple choice Independence or a decade under Tory right wing rule, simple choice really.

  5. Patrician says:

    I have said this for ages, Nicola Sturgeon is an exceptional party political leader that any party would be lucky to have. However, she has been an abject failure as leader of the Yes movement. She is no revolutionary.

  6. Polly says:

    This sums up how most of us feel. Add in an even more exasperated tone and a sliver of anger that goes to my heart and I could have written something similar, unfortunately without all of your excellent proof to ram home the message that we’ve stalled. I notice two of those front pages have SNP has-beens which only underlines the length of time we’ve been stuck in the same mud. Wondering how many more will be gone until we start pushing the stuck car forward.

  7. Bob Costello says:

    Hopefully, that situation can be resolved in the near future through the examination of the circumstances surrounding the Alex Salmond case being conducted in the Scottish parliament at the moment, and any possible action taken by Alex Salmon in connection with the case.

  8. Gullane No 4 says:

    I think the SNP are playing the right cards.
    Going for independence in the middle of a pandemic crisis is foolish. It just gives a free pass to the Bitter Together mob.

    Once the real cost of Brexit hits in a years time Independence will be a shoe in.
    We only have one shot at this, lose the next referendum and Independence is gone, probably for ever, certainly for 20 years.
    Let the people of Scotland have courage to stick to the right path.
    We all know what history has proven, whenever we are in sight of a great victory we start arguing amongst ourselves and somehow manage a glorious defeat

  9. Effijy says:

    The worst of the Covid 19 virus deaths has now passed in Scotland
    However I do concede that we must continue to maintain the distancing
    and hand washing guidelines etc.

    Westminster’s United anti- Scottish Independence Media are yer again calling
    For our Health Minister’s resignation even though our NHS and Government
    Management has been vastly superior to that in England.

    Westminster could barely have mismanaged all things virus related over these last few months
    And they could be a worthy contender for the most lies told by a government over a 3 month period.

    Where is the SNP demand the Tories resignation when defending our health minister?

    The Tories say they are fully focused on beating the virus but they have a team still working on Brexit, they are making a raft load of non disclosure agreements with their supporters and producing new legislation to bring in Trumps Chlorinated Chicken and steroid beef.

    Why then with less than 6 months to go until Scotland is unwillingly being ripped out of the EU
    do we not have an Indy Ref 2 team churning out the constant stream of mistakes and abuse the Tories have been overseeing?

    Now is the time unlike no other.

    Truth is this Tory Government is the most untruthful and corrupt that we have had imposed upon us
    In the last 100 years.

    Time to attack this poisonous political beast that had killed more Scots than any virus.

  10. Newburghgowfer says:

    Well the inept SNP leadership at current moment are just a version of what Labour were in Scotland. Have majority of Mps/ Msps but doing nothing in regards to their goal.
    Managing Wm,s budget must be met with a source of glee knowing that they have the SNP being a nice little party making life easy for them. The SNP couldn’t fight their way out of a paper bag but would fight you to death in getting a Bloke to use a Ladies Toilet or compete in a Womans team.
    Imagine after 39 years of voting I have no X to put in a box as cant stomach the way the Party has been since 2014. Indyref was a turning point where the majority now are on the establishment gravy train.
    The new ISP needs a figurehead to drive it or it will come to nothing, personally I would like to see certain people within the SNP to join it to kick-start it and give it the boost so general public know who it is. If not we will have a SNP like the Scottish Football team. Plenty of people support it but in reality its just sentimental and know we will never play in the big league.

  11. robertknight says:

    Sic a parcel o Troughers and Cozy Devolutionists in a Nation.

  12. Juteman says:

    How to depress any good mood amongst folk that want the Union ended.
    I was feeling pretty good this morning, now i’m depressed.

  13. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    Tough. Until we recognise and acknowledge the problem we’ll never fix it.

  14. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Do you still want independence?”

    It’s literally one day since I addressed that exact question in a post.

  15. Andy Ellis says:

    It’s been apparent for some time that while the SNP may be regarded by the majority of Scots as fairly competent administrators, they are hardly a radical force. Even its semblance of stodgy, grey-suited managerialist helmsmanship has to be regarded as damning with faint praise given the execrable quality of the British nationalist opposition.

    As a disillusioned former SNP member, one who has become increasingly horrified by the ability of the party to repeatedly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the only conclusion I can draw is that the movement as a whole may have been better served by pursuing Faroe Island style full autonomy in the short to medium term.

    I don’t honestly see how anyone other than tribal SNP loyalists can still maintain that indyref2 (and still less actual independence) is likely to happen any time soon. That being said, we’d probably now all be a good deal better off if the SNP had concentrated on actually delivering the kind of devolution enjoyed by our Faroese neighbours: by all means we can still all campaign for full independence as some in the Faroes still do, but let’s not fool ourselves that the SNP are going to deliver on their promises.

    Hitching the independence cause to the SNP looks increasingly to have been a mistake. It has neither the appetite or the vision to honour the cheques the leadership keeps writing.

  16. Mountain shadow says:

    The direction of travel is obvious though. Independence is a demographic certainty in my opinion.

    And if a hard Brexit occurs we could see an even larger move to Yes.

  17. Sinky says:

    Long retired Scotland In Union letter writer Hugh Pennington again on Call Kaye promoting a UK wide approach to relaxing lockdown while clueless Kaye fails to challenge him on the reasons why

  18. Mike d says:

    SCOTLAND! We used to be indecisive, now we are not so sure.

  19. Sharny Dubs says:

    It never ceases to amaze me how the “surges” never quite get past the percentage of, let’s say for instance, the postal vote. So in the event of us actually somehow accidentally having a referendum it would be quite “reasonable” for the result to just scrape a no vote and still look plausible.
    Like the postal vote in 14’ being predominantly no for example. Who’d have thunk!?

    It’s not who votes that counts, it’s who counts the votes, Joseph Stalin (I believe)

  20. Alexander Wallace says:

    I have lost my mojo when it comes to polls showing independence in the lead.I just cant get excited as i know we are going nowhere soon.I am also sick to death of the surge headlines.Once this pandemic is over we need a vision for independence with someone at the wheel who knows where the accelerator pedal is, before we run out of road.(see what i done there)

  21. ahundredthidiot says:

    Hurry up and Wait

    and I see BLM get a mention on the front page – hooligans all.

    I would like to think we don’t tolerate this pish – and if they do start their vandalism, looting, rioting, they need to be put down with swift and effective force, preferably by Police Scotland.

  22. Sinky says:

    Those opposed to SNP indy strategy of building support to 60% before holding a consultative referendum run by Scots Parliament have failed to suggest a viable alternative. Udi is non starter.

  23. Juteman says:

    @Rev. Stuart Campbell.
    I do acknowledge there is a problem, but do we tear down the house, or try to rebuild what we have? I don’t think we have enough time to build a new house from scratch.
    The SNP has always been two camps. The gradualists hold the reins of power just now, but I still believe they want the Union ended as much as yourself, and myself for that matter.
    I understand where you are coming from, but I worry that your tactics may have unwanted consequences if it loses the SNP enough votes. A union majority next May would be the end of the dream for at least a decade.
    Yes, the SNP have some nasty young entryists at the moment, but surely they are the problem, not the party itself?
    You haven’t lost me yet, but i’m hanging on by my fingernails. 🙂

  24. Stuart MacKay says:

    Newburghgowfer @9:38am

    Actually putting ‘X’ in a box when you vote is going to be banned. Instead you will have to put ‘XY’ otherwise you’re ballot paper will be considered spoiled.

  25. ahundredthidiot says:

    Juteman @ 10:08

    The problem, that I see, is this. The SNP ‘think’ they are appealing to the new, younger voter, but my nephew and his mates (all bar one, yes voters and SNP voters – and all mid 20s) are shaking their heads. They are ripe for the picking and I will tell by who – the fucking conservatives!

    All this woke pish, with GRA, hate crime laws and them being to be made to feel somehow guilty for being white and male – is pissing them the fuck right off. So, this argument that the ‘young don’t really mind’ is all utter nonsense and borderline propaganda. And it’s not just males, my niece and her mates are waking up to the reality of what GRA actually means in practice and while still on board with SNP for now – they are starting to doubt themselves.

    And if you want evidence – just look at the rise in males dropping out of universities across the western world. Wokism is like a religion now.

    The cherry on the cake will be NS coming out and supporting some pish like BLM, getting down on her knees, begging forgiveness from the Mob for something she has no more guilt than you or I.

    If that happens, you can more or less guarantee a Unionist majority next year.

  26. Bob Mack says:

    Just over the next hill______is a mountain range!!

  27. Polly says:

    Yes, tough to any and all who only want to feel good and bask in the warm glow of opinion polls about things getting better for our prospects. Like many, I basked in the glow of euphoria and the feel good factor within Yes right up until the morning after the votes were counted. We were so heartwrenched that morning because we didn’t look around until then to see some horrible facts. We cannot make the same mistake again when prospects are far worse now and we have a worse team now on our side, if there even is one side anymore.

    Scots, like some folk elsewhere are half in love with their lost, noble causes. Whether the ‘45, Dunkirk or indyref, I’m done eulogising failures. I want us to win an independent Scotland. Especially with no deal brexit barrelling down the road, the stinking Westminster lot in charge and the useless lot up here failing to make gains from it we need to face horrible facts. Even once we gain independence it can only be a temporary celebration since there will be huge tasks to be completed and country recreated and many willing us to fail and enemies within and without. What I look forward to celebrating and feeling good about is our 10 year anniversary of independence. Hopefully by then maybe even England will congratulate us on the occasion.

  28. I want independence but I want it to be REAL not getting rid of one master to then have 27 others telling me what I can and cannot do there are no independent countries in E.U. The the clue is in the title Union .I want to have Scottish people ruling Scotland no one else no one will look after Scotland’s interests better than the Scots it’s called FREEDOM I mean Wallace did not free Scotland to hand it over to Europe he handed it to the people of Scotland

  29. Dogbiscuit says:

    What is also apparent is that the National is blowing smoke up Nationalist arses. That’ll be to establishments benefit. I hope Nicola Sturgeon realises BLM in the States are caught on camera calling for the killing of policemen. Does Nicola Sturgeon stand by that? ‘Defund the Police’? What the fuck? ‘ Yeah we all don wan no po-lice heah! ‘

  30. Andy Ellis says:

    @sinky 10.07 am

    The binary choice you suggest is a false dichotomy. Accepting a British nationalist veto on whether Holyrood was “allowed” to hold indyref2 has always been wrong. the surprise is that so few in the SNP see that. If Westminster refuses to honour the 2012 London Agreement precedent for #indyref2, the simple alternative is for the SNP and broader Yes movement to declare that henceforward every election will be regarded as plebiscitary, with any result where more than 50% vote for pro indy parties being a de facto mandate for independence.

    The threat of this alone may have encouraged British nationalists to abandon their anti-democratic stance that we can only exercise our self determination with their permission. As Stu and many others have consistently pointed out, the legality of whether Holyrood can hold referendums without a Section 30 Order should have been put beyond doubt in the courts years ago. It is symptomatic of the SNP’s political timidity and gradualism that this never happened, and a huge indictment of SNP members that they have put up with it not being done.

    Your (and apparently the SNP’s) plan is the dialogue of despair. Accepting the need for a “guaranteed” 60% in the polls, failing to actually initiate a campaign, and explicitly accepting the right of Westminster to grant permission, means we can kiss goodbye to indy for the foreseeable future.

    @juteman 10.08 am
    As Stu and many of us have argued for a while, given the SNP’s current stance they aren’t going to make good on their promises. They’re playing you. Insisting on the magical 60% in the polls, failing to actually call a campaign, not challenging the right of Westminster to veto #indyref2 etc. aren’t the actions of a party keen to advance independence any time soon.

    Nobody is suggesting tearing them down, but an increasing number of us are realising they aren’t going to deliver unless we hold their feet to the fire. Dealing with the Woko Haram parasites infesting the party is only one aspect (and look how that’s going…..they’re entrenched, confident and crowing about their power), the other is the general political timidity and lack of appetite for a fight. Maybe SNP members can get back to us when both have been addressed?

  31. Allium says:

    @ahundredthidiot 10.22

    I want what you say to be wrong, but it has occurred to me in darker moments that if (big if) the Scot Tories could employ really competent strategists, and shut up their liveliest morons temporarily, and utilise GRA as a wedge issue, they could pull off something close to what you imagine. The Lib Dems, who are the priests of purity atm, would drop the woke crap as soon as possible for the chance to get back in coalition with a ministerial car again.

    The SNP look arrogant, patronising and patrician right now. The only reason they aren’t in trouble is the poverty of the opposition. That won’t last forever.

  32. John Mcphail says:

    What I find strange is this 48% of people who would still vote no. The Billy McProds from Govan, or the Captain Reginald Yaxley-Moggses with their borders estates will never vote Yes… Where does this 48% come from. Can’t all be pensioners….

  33. Vivian O'Blivion says:

    Paul Cavanagh came decisively down against a new Indy, Regional list party in yesterday’s post. The point the argument entirely fails to address is the need to “keep the SNP honest”. Sturgeon could achieve an overwhelming victory at Holyrood in 2021, only to ask Westminster for a Section 30 order and to walk away shrugging when the request is refused.
    A lot of water can pass under the bridge ‘tween now and then. The persecution of Craig Murray enters the Courtroom phase tomorrow. I suspect “Big Sister” is overreaching. The publication of the SNPs next accounts will provide a crucial clue. If the party is surviving on Short Money, the Woko Harem cult occupying Bute House will be on notice of eviction.

  34. Gary45% says:

    Is there an election coming up sometime soon?

  35. J Galt says:

    If one didn’t know any better one might be forgiven for thinking the “National” was in the business of taking the proverbial!

  36. Dogbiscuit says:

    Most if not all communities in the States want and require a properly funded impartial police force. Those lunatics calling to ‘defund the police’ are criminals who have taken up another three word mantra. My mockery of a colloquial speech pattern is a sign of my disrespect for such ignorant bastards. I don’t think it’s a good thing or look for a First Minister to align herself with such dubious outfits as BLM and Antifa.

  37. A Person says:

    I see the National is (predictably) hitching the independence cause to the BLM protests. If you think the GRA is harmful to the independence cause, see how many votes apologising for being Scottish and promising to tear down parts of history because of the actions of others centuries ago gets you.

  38. ScotsRenewables says:

    Say what you will, acquaintances and friends of mine who were fairly intractable ‘No’s are one by one coming round, largely due to the contrast in the two administrations’ perceived handling of the pandemic. For better or worse, none of them give a toss about the GRA or proposed hate crime legislation.

    Of most significance in this current poll is the finding that 63% want the SNP to use next May’s election to seek a mandate for independence (as opposed to YAMFAR, yet another mandate for a referendum)

    This is huge. Now we need to ensure the party acts on it.

  39. James F. McIntosh says:

    What do you think of offering bojo an all or nothing ref. ie. Independence or scrap Hollyrood. Certainly put the wind up those career politicians on the gravy train. Plus if we can’t win that vote now then we deserve all that’s comeing to us.

  40. Capella says:

    A 52% majority for YES is quite good atm. We are in the middle of a pandemic so no campaigning is happening now, or likely to happen for months. We are bombarded daily by anti SNP and anti YES propaganda in the MSM, 99% of which is rabidly pro-Union. The scheduled Indyref2 has been postponed temporarily, the BREXIT debacle is still playing out, the SNP are 54% in the polls, Nicola Sturgeon is hugely popular as a leader.

    What’s the problem?

  41. David says:


    As I asked in the last post

    “How the fuck did we end up driving down this Cul de Sac?”

    Sturgeon doesn’t want the Devolution gravy train to stop

    Her ego is going through the roof

    As is her joint savings with Mr Murrell

    They are raking it in

    Then add to that the limousine lifestyle.

    Sturgeon’s idea of a consultation on Scottish Independence is:-

    “Talk to the Hand”

    She knows after Independence the Party is over, we will elect a New Prime Minister.

  42. mark whittet says:

    Only by working with Scots Indy-List Referendum party can SNP achieve Scottish Independence (even if SNP win 70 MSPs / 70 MPs!

    Here’s how

    Read. Learn. Support. Join. Retweet
    Ps Ask the SNP to logically reply. They can’t!

  43. Duncan Macniven says:

    The sight of Wishart glad handing and laughing hysterically at his wit and repartee in Westminster extolling the virtues off Rees Mogg, was enough to make me reach for the sick bucket.
    Wishart is now famous for his blocking anyone including me who suggest to him he and his merry men and women, have gone native in Westminster, and are growing fat and lazy, as they stroll the great halls, supping the subsidised fine wines and munching the subsidised food. Their salaries and expense accounts would make a Mafia Don blush.
    Westminster and its remunerations system has been designed for just such a reason as Scottish Home Rule. Keep the Jocks sweet and the proles can get stuffed.
    EVEL should have seen us out of the bloody place for good. The fact it didnt means we never will leave.

  44. ScotsRenewables says:

    The problem Capella is that Stu is now so alarmed by the wokist Brave New World tendency in the SNP that he is considering advising against independence altogether.

    For myself, I am fed up with the S30 bullshit. There is, as Stu points out, no way Bozo is going to grant one when he is almost certain to lose it.

    I think the finding that 63% would support making the next Holyrood election a de-facto referendum is the most positive news there has been for a long while. We all need to put pressure on our MSPs and MPs to support this.

  45. Dogbiscuit says:

    Waiting for support for Independence to float up to 60% is not a viable strategy. The AUOB marches must have been embarrassing the hell out of Nicola Sturgeon until this handy ‘ lockdown’ You still realise we are serving a life sentence? As yet no release date. At Her Majesties Pleasure. It might only be house arrest but it is nevertheless an absolute removal of our civil rights and freedoms while the First Minister pontificates about other people’s freedom. She is indeed a bare faced brass necked Tyrant. Politically I would describe Sturgeon as being on the run from the rumble of political Artillery from Mr Salmond.

  46. Dogbiscuit says:

    Whenever Pete Wishart speaks he seems to be forcing himself reluctantly to do so . His voice had a strange strangulated quality. Perhaps the tell to his dishonesty?

  47. POlly says:

    “Wallace did not free Scotland to hand it over to Europe he handed it to the people of Scotland”

    Except he didn’t succeed. He was another glorious failure we eulogise. That freedom was left to the less noble, more backstabbing Bruce. And even he realised he had to work with European powers to succeed in his aims for Scotland. What else otherwise is the Declaration of Arbroath setting out Scotland’s claim to papal authority or his suggestion that unless there can be peace with England, whom the pope until that time supported, then there could be no Scottish help with his crusades. Realpolitik was alive and well back then just as it is today. Whether independence brexiters like it or not Scotland needs Europe/EU whether merely for trade or the blessing of legitimacy and it is as valuable to us now as when the power there was the papal court.

  48. Capella says:

    @ Scot Renewables – I agree that Boris Johnston will refuse to co-operate on an independence referendum. Nevertheless, the Scottish Government has to ask in order to meet the obligations of the constitutional position. That is necessary for membership of the EU and probably also the UN.

    If Westminster continues to be unreasonable then I think the EU will accept Scottish membership in light of the intransigent behaviour of the Westminster government. Nothing new in that as Michel Barnier points out.

  49. Ron Maclean says:

    The SNP leader’s tenure is not time limited by its constitution. The only way change can happen if the leader doesn’t stand down is through a leadership challenge. As far as I know a candidate for SNP leader must have the nominations of at least a hundred members from at least twenty branches.

    We have to talk about Nicola.

  50. David says:

    Sturgeon is Mussolini in a skirt.

  51. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “The direction of travel is obvious though. Independence is a demographic certainty in my opinion.”

    Did it work out that way for Canada?

  52. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “The problem Capella is that Stu is now so alarmed by the wokist Brave New World tendency in the SNP that he is considering advising against independence altogether.”

    I’m doing no such thing. Learn to read properly.

    “I think the finding that 63% would support making the next Holyrood election a de-facto referendum is the most positive news there has been for a long while.”

    It’s bollocks, though. The question said “should CONSIDER” doing that, which Kelly raged furiously about being a cheaty meaningless way to ask a question when it was about a new list party. Seems he’s had a sudden change of heart.

  53. David says:

    Duncan Macniven 10.59

    I also saw Pete Wishart that day, It was sickening to watch

    I think he is over twenty years at Westminster. He has become institutionalised.

    He will also be heartbroken when Scotland wins her Independence (just as much as his leader Sturgeon)

    Every one of our MPs have become damp squibs

    Blackford reminds me of a land owner who accidentally wandered into the House of Commons.

  54. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “What’s the problem?”

    The problem is we DON’T have a 52% majority. On average, even just this year, we’re at about 50%, in the most staggeringly favourable circumstances imaginable. The entire point of this article is “stop treating single polls as trends”.

  55. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “I think the SNP are playing the right cards.
    Going for independence in the middle of a pandemic crisis is foolish. It just gives a free pass to the Bitter Together mob.

    Once the real cost of Brexit hits in a years time Independence will be a shoe in.
    We only have one shot at this, lose the next referendum and Independence is gone, probably for ever, certainly for 20 years.
    Let the people of Scotland have courage to stick to the right path.
    We all know what history has proven, whenever we are in sight of a great victory we start arguing amongst ourselves and somehow manage a glorious defeat”

    God I’m so sick of this woolly, wishful, meaningless bullshit rhetoric. To win a referendum WE HAVE TO BE ABLE TO ACTUALLY HAVE ONE. How is it that you imagine that coming about, exactly?

  56. Ron Maclean says:

    @ Capella 10:56am

    If the MSM can effectively campaign why can’t we? Why has everything associated with independence been put on hold? Just so Nicola Sturgeon can look good making a daily casualty broadcast? Janey Godley could do that.

  57. mountain shadow says:

    Rev. Stuart Campbell says:
    9 June, 2020 at 11:26 am
    “The direction of travel is obvious though. Independence is a demographic certainty in my opinion.”

    Did it work out that way for Canada?
    The difference between Canada and Scotland is that most folk in Quebec are now happy with the settlement they have, equality in language for example.

    Scots are undoubtedly not satisfied with the current settlement

  58. Capella says:

    I would take issue with “staggeringly favourable”.

    There’s a pandemic preventing campaigning. Boots on the ground is the one advantage the YES movement has.

    The entire MSM, bar one paper, is virulently opposed to independence and the SNP. They use the most crude propaganda tools daily to attack every aspect of the Scottish Government and Scottish life. They deny us access to relevant information in this pandemic, they bombard us daily with English news and current affairs, economic, political and cultural issues. They smear and arrest prominent independence supporting figures to prevent them from having the “oxygen of publicity”.
    They lie shamelessly.

    I regard it as something of a miracle that so many people see through this fog of propaganda and choose to support independence and support the Scottish government.

  59. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Scots are undoubtedly not satisfied with the current settlement”

    Based on what? You really think most people just want a tiny bit more devolution? What’s your evidence for that?

  60. Jim Thomson says:

    The New Christy Minstrels and “Three Wheels on My Wagon” springs to mind

  61. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “The entire MSM, bar one paper, is virulently opposed to independence and the SNP. They use the most crude propaganda tools daily to attack every aspect of the Scottish Government and Scottish life. They deny us access to relevant information in this pandemic, they bombard us daily with English news and current affairs, economic, political and cultural issues. They smear and arrest prominent independence supporting figures to prevent them from having the “oxygen of publicity”.
    They lie shamelessly.”

    All true. But wah wah wah – THAT ISN’T GOING TO CHANGE IN OUR LIFETIMES. It’s a constant, and as such it’s an irrelevance. We just have to live with it and deal with it.

    All the actual political circumstances, however, are as good for us as they’re ever going to be. How much worse could being in the UK get? We’re being dragged out of the EU against our will, into an economic disaster, piled on top of the economic disaster we’re already in that has also cost 60,000 people their lives.

    If we can’t do it now, we’re never doing it.

  62. mogabee says:

    Asking MP’s and MSP’s anything atm results in a defensive “not now” “pandemic” bollocks so how the fuck do the members in reality get the message to them?

    We’ve seen how some of them treat us by blocking etc on social media and to tell you the truth they’re hiding or lying like rugs to us.

    I have no idea how to go forward when even on here there are folk living in dream land…

  63. Lorna Campbell says:

    I think that we all have to accept that the SNP is not going to take us to independence willingly – willingly on their part, that is. Since the SNP is actually the party of independence, that leaves us with a massive problem now. How do we get round it? To my mind – and I believe that YES voters have been as complacent and unthinking as any dyed-in-the-wool Unionist on this – we have brought this on ourselves by insisting that we stick to a referendum – any kind of referendum, when it was plainly obvious after 2014 that it would become a trap. Since then, we have declined to put a foot off that path (the apparent majority, that is; I know there are plenty of us who are willing to do so). All kinds of solutions have been offered and mulled over, but no one has been able to get all to agree on the next step forward.

    We read and hear all kinds of guff courtesy of British Nationalists, but, let’s face it, we are pretty good at the guff stuff ourselves. There is no other answer than to find a proper, constitutional way out of the Union that by-passes the Unionist/British/English Nationalist vote, if we are to avoid confrontation with them that could spiral into something dark. The only way that can be done is to resile the Treaty on the grounds of England-as-the-UK’s perfidy. That avoids the pitfalls the Unionists, et al will be bound to create, but it is a legal route out of the Union with which, at the end of the day, they will have no right to thwart or argue against because it will be Scotland and her people who will be the injured parties, not the assorted Unionists forcing their assorted minority views (dressed up in alliance form to appear as if they have a majority) on us. That is where we went wrong in 2014: we allowed these naysayers the privilege of voting down independence and to keep control of the reins even though they are a number of minority groups, not a single majority, as our election wins have been, year after year after year. If we want independence, we are going to have to face down the assorted Unionist minorities and tell them to go to hell as we try to claw back our sovereignty in the international courts.

    We also have the UN Charter on self-determination and human rights that these assorted Unionist minorities seem incapable of appreciating, and appreciating to boot, that their opposition is illegal under international law, and certainly outwith the spirit of the Charter to which the UK has signed up. In order to do any of that, we need the Treaty ‘sound’ in law and we need to build a case against the Union and against the hi-jacker of that Union, England-as-the-UK. In order to do that, we need at least one, preferably two, constitutional experts on our side to cut through the baloney that passes for truth in this fast approaching fascist state. We do not have much time because Brexit is coming down the road to meet us, and it will put the finishing touches to any economic well-being and social cohesion we may have been able to lay claim to. It will be disastrous for our country.

    The SNP leadership refuses to acknowledge that they have lost the plot on a long catalogue of political and strategic errors. The simple fact that they were willing to crawl back to Westminster when told to do so by English Nationalists only emphasizes either their collusion, or their terror of the British State, or their terror at independence itself, or, indeed, all three. That they would have the gall to expect us to vote for them again but do nothing but ask for another mandate to ask for another S30 Order is beyond parody.

  64. David says:

    Sturgeon has become a multi millionairess off of the backs of clowns like you and me.

    We have marched up and down hills, in all kinds of weather, posted leaflets in all kinds of weather, for what?

    Our morale has never been lower.

    The only thing that is going up are the devisions within the Yes Movement and the Murrell’s bank balances.

    Good work Sturgeon, well done, NOT!!!

  65. Ron Maclean says:

    Procrastination takes too long. We’ll be taken out of the EU against our wishes at the beginning of next year. Despite all the SNP bluster what has been done about that. Nothing.

  66. Famous15 says:

    I observe with irritation the wee sneaky extreme left or right comments being slipped in under cover of acceptable opinions. A wee pretendy kid on supposedly supporting independence then wham some terrible bullshit most sane people would not wish.

    “Black lives matter” is worthy but “defund the police” is anarchist. If you are an anarchist come right out and argue for it,not that I would vote for it.

    Now about these statues,please leave the Duke of Sutherland on top of Ben Bhraggie as I use it as a very pro independence object lesson when explaining the Clearances.

  67. Andy Ellis says:

    @mountainshadow 11.43am

    Stu is right. The cause of Quebec independence should serve as a salutary lesson: a much closer “No” result in their second referendum has effectively punted indy for them into the very long grass. The PQ has little hope of making progress, although many Quebecois remain unsatisfied and are significantly less likely to see themselves primarily as Canadian first or regard Canada as a project more favourably than being able to live in a free Quebec.

    In reality looking to either Quebec or Catalonia for examples, guidance or warnings is of limited use. The differences between the 3 are probably more marked than the similarities. It’s even arguable that Scotland enjoys a uniquely positive position which it (or perhaps more accurately the SNP) has totally blown in recent years.

  68. Bob Mack says:

    I fully understand loyalty to a party which in the main offers secure government ,except when the extremists within it push agendas the majority of the public don’t actually want.

    I understand fully that the same loyalty can cause you to have a blind faith in what they say they are going to do.

    What I cannot understand is that the evidence is so compelling that they have no intention of offering Indy refs this year or even next, and get people still defend them on that score.

    They are supposed to be the party of Independence first and foremost. It is their raisin d’etre.

    There certainly are individuals within the party structure pushing an Indy agenda, but from a position which does not influence the leadership.

    This just cannot be right.

  69. Capella says:

    How much worse could being in the UK get?

    Very much worse. If the UK leaves the jurisdiction of the EU on December 31st we will be subjected to US corporate pillaging with no protection. The SNP are currently pressing for an extension to the transition period. The deadline for this is at the end of June. I would expect a major shift in opinion after that.

  70. Yona says:

    We’re fecked. And as more information comes out regarding theSex Education Materials and what they propose to teach weans in Secret. Expect to lose a lot of votes. Have a look at the polls in 6m month’s time.

  71. Peter A Bell says:

    Stu Campbell makes a fair point and makes it very forcefully. But I’m not sure what is achieved by obsessing about past mistakes, missteps and misjudgements. It’s not like we aren’t all aware of it. Stu Campbell can analyse the shit out of it and, titillating as that may be it alters nothing.

    I suggest we take the lessons of the past and apply them. The lesson is not that we should not simply trust the party to do what is required. We must tell the SNP leadership what is required. What is demanded in return for the continuing support of the Yes movement.

    We must draft a Manifesto for Independence and present this to the SNP (and other pro-independence parties) along with a very unambiguous declaration that this next election is their last chance. We know we must ensure a massive SNP majority in the next Holyrood election. The alternative is just too horrendous to contemplate. We should also seek to ensure the SNP gets the highest possible proportion of the vote on both ballots. Contrary to what some claim, list votes always count. Especially if they amount to more than 50%!

    To achieve anything the Yes movement must become a unified force able to speak with one voice. For this to work, that voice must speak only and exclusively on the constitutional issue. NO POLICY! When (if?) we do that then we will be heard as we evidently are not at the moment.

    #DissolveTheUnion #ScottishUDI #WhiteRoseRising

  72. David says:


    What is Sturgeon’s plan regarding Independence?

    Is next year’s election another mandate for indyRef2?

    What will Sturgeon do with the mandate?

    Will she ask for a section 30 the day after the election?

    What will she do when Boris tells her where to go?

    Will it be back onto the Devolution merry-go-round?

    Then we wait for the next GE and she tells us we need as many SNP MPs as possible to give her another mandate for indyRef2.

    And again Boris ignores her, what will be her plan after that?

    We wait until the 2026 Holyrood elections and again she tells us we need an SNP majority to give her another mandate for indyRef2 and again Boris tells her where to go

    When does the Sturgeon plan finally come to an end Capella?

    I have a better idea Capella, get shot of Sturgeon at the first opportunity and replace her with someone who really does want to fight for Scottish Independence.

  73. Caroline Wilson says:

    ‘Considering advising against independence altogether’- That wasn’t my reading of Stuart’s current position (but I’m sure he’ll correct if I’m wrong).

    ‘As a matter of principle, independence remains uncontestable. But as a matter of real-world here-and-now practicality, it is becoming harder and harder to advocate, and we cannot begin to express how painfully that breaks our heart.’

    Finding it increasingly difficult in practical terms, (for all the valid concerns about some SNP policies & current focus) to campaign for such an intrinsically righteous principle of independence, is galaxies away from even thinking about ‘advising against’ it. This is the sort of nuance that Wings detractors seize on & wilfully misrepresent.

  74. SilverDarling says:

    We are frogs slowly being boiled alive. At any point we could and should jump but we are sitting waiting for the right conditions.How ‘hot’ does it need to get or are we past the point of saving ourselves yet?

    I see Kirsty Blackman is spouting more bollocks again.

    Plus ça change plus c’est la même chose…

  75. robertknight says:

    Power corrupts, absolute power… you know the rest.

    Trouble the SNP have is that they play politics in the British tradition.

    They are no longer about radicalism, they are no longer about protest, they are no longer about independence.

    The SNP are, as with every other political party, concerned with one single issue – winning the next election.

    The Independence/Yes movement are waking up to the fact that the SNP is not what it once was. The quest for Indy is now a distraction, a side show, an embarrassment.

    The “leader” of a western European democracy cannot and will not be seen at a mass rally where the news cameras flock to those SnG or Clan Wallace types who insist on dressing up like Hollywood extras.

    The SNP were once the only show in town where Indy was concerned. The birth of ‘Yes’, AUOB etc. has played into the hands of those who wish to take the SNP in a different direction.

    Now the SNP is all about good governance for Scotland. And their attitude? Well, put simply, if you want to campaign for Indy there are plenty of other organisations for that other than the SNP. Go seek your fortune and future with them my friend – best leave politics to the professionals. Oh, but we can still count on your vote, can we???

  76. mountain shadow says:

    Scots are undoubtedly not satisfied with the current settlement”

    Based on what? You really think most people just want a tiny bit more devolution? What’s your evidence for that?

    Would the SNP be riding so high in the polls if we were happy with the current settlement? I think not.

    Perhaps your next poll could ask questions around that area.

    Are Scots happy with the current settlement?

    If no, what powers would you like to see transferred..

    1. Fisheries
    2. Oil & Gas
    3. Income tax
    4. Etc…

  77. Capella says:

    @ David – good luck with your plan.

    An example of the perfidy of the BBC. Today at 12.30 – as the FM is about to broadcast her updates on the Covid-19 figures, BBC R Scotland cuts to “Regional” news – the news where you are.

    So we miss the update.

    They used to broadcast the FM from the start of her address. But she was becoming too popular I guess. For the past two days there were 0 covid deaths in Scotland. BBC R Scotland didn’t bother to tell us.

    That’s State Broadcaster propaganda. A daily dose.

  78. James Mills says:

    No fundraiser this year , Stu ? Not surprised as you and your followers are doing the Union’s work for them .

    The SNP is not perfect but we are closer to Independence than we have been in my lifetime .
    Despite your long , tedious , chip on the shoulder diatribes recently , we are moving in the right direction .

    Unlike your blog , NO PARTY is one person – Sturgeon will go either before or after we attain Independence . Nothing is more certain – except your lack of neutrality on the Sturgeon issue !

  79. Athanasius says:

    The SNP has sold out. It likes the comfortable position its in now, and it won’t take the risks needed to achieve independence. The wokeists who’ve infested the party know this, which is why they’re so powerful. They couldn’t give a curse about Scotland either, they just want their mitts on the levers of government. I agree with Rev Stu on one point – another pro-independence party is needed, preferably one to the right of the SNP to draw in the small c conservatives and to force the SNP out of their reverie.

  80. Beaker says:

    I’m going to be blunt.

    The SNP may be competent when compared to others, but they have problems of their own making. To be fair, every political party does.

    Derek MacKay – enough said.
    There are others who have basically fucked up, including one who resorted to Twitter to insult their constituents until Head Office told them to shut the fuck up.

    Blackford at Westminster is a waste of space. He seems to think he’s Alex Salmond Mark II, but in reality he’s more like Angus Robertson was – ineffective.

    The only person I can see capable of driving a push to independence is Jo Cherry. She has the drive, is very intelligent and has the right temperament. She can be quietly devastating in a debate, in a rather scary manner. Someone said she has not interest in leading the party, which is unfortunate.

  81. Grouse Beater says:

    Published last Saturday; over 13,000 readers and counting:

    ‘The SNP’s Moral Stance’

  82. ScotsRenewables says:

    Re. Joanna Cherry – well, she would say that… But if she thought becoming leader was the way forward to independence and the opening was there I am sure she would take it.

  83. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Sturgeon has become a multi millionairess off of the backs of clowns like you and me.”

    I strongly doubt she’s a “multi-millionairess”. What she’s achieved is what she cares about – status and power and popularity.

  84. Andrew Parker says:

    I was desperate for Indyref2 before we left the EU so we could be on a parallel track – I don’t love the EU but it was crucial timing. We bottled it (both SNP and havering bloody centrists) and missed the boat. The risk of gradualism is that it gradually loses momentum and fades. Its not set in stone that it will go our way.

    However, now that the haverers have missed that boat, I think it is for the Scottish electorate to have a fit of dignity and show willing. The SNP need Scots to do the leading – recent marches have been brilliant, yet still the bloody haverers haver.

    So far, against my preferred strategy, the SNP have at least held position while voters get their act together. I don’t think they could’ve done much more except for risking getting us on a parallel track before Brexit.

  85. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “No fundraiser this year , Stu ? Not surprised as you and your followers are doing the Union’s work for them .”

    Off you pop, troll.

  86. Andy Ellis says:

    I see Peter Bell has written his article again.

    A man with no clue advocates for a movement with no policies. Stun us with another!

    Here we were thinking that adequately described today’s SNP: a party which appears to have no other function than ensuring the continuation of the cosy sinecures of the devolutionary settlement. After all, those quangos won’t staff themselves will they? All those SPADs have mortgages to pay, right?

    The front man for White Rose Rising trying to convince us that this new astro turf movement will somehow force the SNP to take action, whilst simultaneously rubbishing the entirely sensible (and far more coherent) plan for a list only party.

    The only thing more predictable than the inability of SNP loyalists to remove their blinders is Pete Bell flouncing off in a huff and then turning up again a few days later as though nothing happened. If only he’d stick to the impulse to withdraw and gie us all some peace.

  87. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Would the SNP be riding so high in the polls if we were happy with the current settlement? I think not.”

    They’re riding high in the polls for two reasons:

    (1) Almost half of the population wants independence and has only one credible party to vote for, while the Unionist vote is split three ways.

    (2) Absolutely nobody with an IQ over 30 believes that any of the other parties could form a remotely competent government.

  88. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “I would expect a major shift in opinion after that.”

    Would ye, aye? Except that’s what we’ve been saying about pretty much every significant political development of the last six years – the Brexit vote, May refusing S30, Johnson becoming PM, Brexit actually happening, etc etc etc – and none of them have amounted to a thimbleful of cat piss.

    You think a no-deal Brexit will be worse than TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE DYING AND THE ENTIRE COUNTRY BEING UNDER HOUSE ARREST FOR MONTHS ON END? Because that’s what’s happening RIGHT NOW, as a direct result of monumentally and obviously incompetent UK rule, and the needle’s barely twitched.

    The definition of insanity – or more accurately, stupidity – is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome.

  89. Ron Maclean says:

    @ David 12:22pm

    ‘.. get shot of Sturgeon at the first opportunity and replace her with someone who really does want to fight for Scottish Independence.’

    Who in the SNP really does want to fight for Scottish independence?

  90. Allium says:

    Oh goodness, whoever mentioned it upthread is right. Kirsty Blackman really is going full on delusional woke on twitter. How could anyone rational vote for this sort of thing?

  91. Clapper57 says:

    @ SilverDarling @ 12.27pm

    Hi SilverDarling, hope you are well.

    Well said…..

    Have a nice day

  92. Stuart MacKay says:

    Famous15 @11:59am

    The ruins of the village at Badbea, just up the coast, should be restored, a new “trail of tears” created to show visitors to the area how everybody was forced off the land and Dunrobin castle should be transformed into a Clearances Museum – if not then tear it down.

    Leaving the statue of the Duke to oversee the fruits of his improvements revealed for what they really were would be justice – at least in some form.

  93. jfngw says:

    So what we have is around 45% definite Yes, 30% definite No (and will never be Yes) and 25% that are ‘mood for the day’ voters. The ‘mood’ people will flip-flop on whatever the last headline that has swayed their opinion, even rearranging the question order in a poll will vary their answer. You’ve seen them in the chippy can’t decide whether it’s sauce or vinegar (obviously not a choice problem in Glasgow).

  94. Andy Ellis says:

    @Stuart MacKay

    I kinda disagree. One of the first orders of business post indy should be either to order the Scottish Self Defence Forces to blow the Duke’s monument up, or to replace his statue with someone more suitable…. ;-p

  95. David says:


    You never answered one question I put to you.

    You told me of how the BBC cut Sturgeon off.

    WTf had that to do with the questions I put to you?

  96. Capella says:

    Well to paraphrase yourself – I’m sure today’s figure of 52% is a higher number than 45% in 2014.

    I don’t think thousands of people dying from a virus pandemic is comparable to a no deal BREXIT. These are two different events. One thing both have in common is the utter mess the Westminster government has made of dealing with them.

    The change is the loss of hope. When the Tories won an 80 seat majority in December, all those clinging on to a possible Labour come back lost hope. I think they are among the people shifting to YES.

    Similarly with BREXIT. The farmers, fishermen, whisky distillers, salmon producers and many more Scottish businesses are now exposed to US unregulated corporate take over. Staying in the EU may be their only hope of survival. How can they do that?

  97. CameronB Brodie says:

    Sometime I wish I hadn’t gone to school, as then I might not have appreciated how dangerous it is to place politics above the law.

    Constitutional Legitimacy

  98. mr thms says:

    I think Brexit is part of the process for the dissolution of the UK and the successor states rejoining the EU under Article 49. It was reported the other day that Richard Leonard said Scottish Labour would campaign for Home Rule, but No to another referendum on independence. Labour supporting Home Rule should make their voters long and hard about the merits of Westminster retaining control over Defence and Foreign Policy, while it is ‘fine’ for Scotland to have control of every other power including the right to make its own treaties. A really odd offer from them. Do they intend to start supporting the Scottish Government on devolution of more powers such as Employment Law and Immigration? Has he promised a referendum on Home Rule or is one not required?

  99. Capella says:

    @ David – my BBC comments had nothing to do with your questions. I thought they were rhetorical since Nicola Sturgeon has made her plan crystal clear for years now. Hold a second independence referendum IF POSSIBLE.

  100. CameronB Brodie says:

    And I probably wouldn’t appreciate how dangerous legal parochialism is either.

    The Global Model of Constitutional Rights:

  101. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Well to paraphrase yourself – I’m sure today’s figure of 52% is a higher number than 45% in 2014.”

    Oh ffs why do I bother?

    (1) We’re not at 52%. Individual polls have a 3% margin of error, so you have to average a whole bunch of them together to get a reasonable idea of the true picture.

    (2) 45% was an actual referendum, not an opinion poll in the usual sense. The proper apples-vs-apples comparison isn’t the indyref vote but the POLLS at the time of the indyref vote, and as the article details and sources, we’ve basically gone absolutely nowhere since then, despite everything that’s happened.

    (3) No particular group is “shifting to Yes”. The polls simply do not show that happening. We’re getting standard random variation, like we’ve done since 2011.

    But hey, keep feeding yourself bullshit if it makes you feel better. I’m here for the truth, same as always. Sometimes truth is awkward.

  102. Lennie says:

    I heard Nicola, state yet again independence will be up to the people or Scotland and they’re I’ll decide when. I wasn’t aware the people of Scotland had it in their power to give her the section 30 she apparently requires which Westminster are refusing to give.

  103. Capella says:

    Oh sorry – I thought a vote was a poll, only using a much larger sample therefore more likely to be accurate barring cheating.
    Probably confused by people talking about the polls being open at 6am and “off to the polls” and polling booths and so on.
    I’m not a psephologist. My mistake.

  104. Famous15 says:

    Awkward truths are a real bugger!

    It appears that genome science proves that the Nike outbreak was absolutely successfully controlled by the Scottish Government policies and actions . Take a bow Jeane Freeman.

    No kiltmakers,tourist guides and only a certain Labour MP were hurt as a result.

  105. Alex Montrose says:

    14, Indie ref.
    15, UK GE.
    16, EU ref.
    17, UK GE.
    19, UK GE.
    20 Covid-19

    any independence campaign over the last 5 years would have been drowned out by the farce at Westminster, next year after the disaster of Brexshit/Covid 19 becomes apparent, and a good win for the SNP/Greens in the Holyrood election, would be a good time to launch a yes2indie campaign.

  106. robert graham says:

    Yeah great news running fast to stand still it’s good to see progress eh up the revolution boys.

    While the sack cloth and ashes lot a getting their knickers in a twist about statues of provable slave traders all well and fine it gives them something to do , I believe the more pressing matter that easily pre dates the slave trade is the Clearances , this wilful act by the English ruling classes and commemorated with statues all over Scotland appears to have gone unnoticed , because it’s only the Jocks getting annoyed again who cares,

    A recent attempt to justify this ethnic cleansing by associating it with social change or the natural progression of people moving from the country to the towns is fkn Laughable yeh moving to towns in different parts of the world makes real sense , aye pull the other one ffs .

  107. Mist001 says:

    It’s not going to happen. Mrs. Murrell can’t even organise a devolved matter like health properly without having to rely on Westminster, so how the fuck could she run a country? The job’s far too big for her.

    The only chance we have is with a complete overhaul of the SNP and a change in leadership.

  108. David says:


    People like you kill me

    You are definitely in this indyRef2 thingy for the long haul.

    No matter what, you want Nicola at the wheel.

    Even although she has just drove us up a 100 mile long Cul-de-sac

  109. Stuart MacKay says:

    Andy Ellis @1:11pm

    For the longest time I had an idea to do exactly that. I thought that blowing it up was too crude and draping the statue with sheep skins soaked in blood was more apt.

    However there is a certain irony in having the Duke persist. In fact I’d go further an erect a statue of Patrick Sellar alongside so they witness their foul deeds undone for the rest of eternity.

  110. Clapper57 says:

    A wee story of a NO voter in Indy Ref 2014…his journey….including twist and turns…..

    NB I am not saying his journey is totally representative of ALL No voters…

    My hubby has a friend who he met up with today for a walk and a catch up.

    This friend was a NO voter in Indy Ref, a Remain voter in EU Referendum and is a Labour voter.

    So….right up to EU Ref he was still a No to Indy voter who voted Labour.

    Just after EU Ref he was angry at the Leave vote…but still a Labour voter but started to waiver on Independence.

    Post EU ref and post 2017 GE….he was still a Labour voter and prior to this GE he had NO confidence in Corbyn….but because Corbyn’s Labour was not totally destroyed in this election he suddenly became a Corbynista…..

    Then when Corbyn seemed to not have a definitive position on Brexit….and did not explain his party’s position on Brexit which basically left Labour open to ridicule by the Tories and many others…..this, in my husband’s friend’s mind was an eye opener….suddenly my husband’s friend was becoming more inclined to view Labour as a lost cause and in doing so became more open to Indy.This together with the Withdrawal agreement multiple votes via Theresa May and then the appointment of Boris Johnson seemed to seal the deal for him in considering voting for the SNP and independence.

    GE 2019 my husband’s friend voted SNP…for the first time EVER….this was a big deal for us and him because this guy is Labour through and through. He also said if there was a vote on Independence he would vote Yes.

    Fast forward to 2020 …..for some reason he is now making encouraging noises about Keir Starmer….my husband said to him but I thought you were SNP now….and he said “well they haven’t done anything have they….we are now out of the EU and they said they would stop it….what’s happening with Independence”?

    This story is not meant to be anything other than but ONE story of someone that, I and my husband know…. who was a No to Indy voter, Remain voter in EU Ref and solid Labour voter…. but through his journey he started to see things differently BUT because of no real action on Indy ( but focus instead by SNP on keeping UK in EU) and us Scots now being taken OUT of the EU (especially when Ian Blackford stated in HOC Scotland will NOT be taken out of the EU against it’s will) then my hubby’s friend’s change of heart/support could not be sustained…..

    Read into this comment what you will…call me anti SNP ( I am actually a member of the SNP still)….say this comment is ego driven with no substance….because I am past caring …..but consider how many other’s in my hubby’s friend’s position have had similar journeys….and may be lost now…whether for good I know not……after all this is just but a comment by me on someone else’s blog.

  111. CameronB Brodie says:

    Westminster is an English patriarchy. Patriarchy is bad. Mkay!


  112. Sinky says:

    The Unionists Nike smear has run its course as medical officer confirmed at lunchtime briefing that the Covid strain came from abroad which was successfully eliminated and infection was NOT passed on to kilt fitters, tour guides or any other of Ian Murray’s constituents.

    In fact if Scotland had control of our borders as an independent nation the person from Netherlands might not have got out of Edinburgh Airport without 14 days quarantine arrangements.

  113. Capella says:

    @ Clapper57 – your story about the Labour voter is exactly what I was talking about. After December’s Tory victory Labour voters have no hope. Labour was very smart electing Keir Starmer as leader instead of the hopeless Woke women. Starmer will be promoted by the MSM as a more acceptable face of Labour. He’s smart, articulate and completely venal.

    Ever since Westminster passed the fixed term parliament act we have had elections about every two years. So hope may well be reviving among Labour voters.

    Thanks for sharing that experience. I know it’s anecdotal but there are a few anecdotes of a similar kind.

  114. ahundredthidiot says:

    stuart mackay @ 1:55

    re statues

    With the exception of maybe 10% that should remain in-situ, the Capitalist in me says uproot the lot and create a massive outdoor National ‘Statue Visitors Park’ somewhere in Scotland that has the space and needs the revenue. The footprint could even be in the shape of a mini Scotland to keep the local connections alive.

    I would leave the new ‘plaque writing’ to our more informed academic halfwits.

    ……and who would decide on the 10% that remain in place?

    Why, me, of course!

  115. Bill Boggia says:

    How accurate are these polls in the first place ? Who is making money out of these polling companies and what are their political allegances ?

  116. Colin Alexander says:

    The constitutional law of the UK state operates on the same principles as 17th Century England: Following the “English” Civil War, instead of the tyrant king exercising absolute power, MPs and Lords instead exercise the absolute power of the tyrant Monarch, above the law. (That includes SNP MPs).

    Where does that leave a YES vote even in the unlikely event of a second referendum ever happening? Totally dependent on the goodwill of MP tyrants. MPs (and MSPs) are sworn servants of the tyrant Queen, not servants of a sovereign people.

    Put simply:

    To achieve independence would require a political revolution: politicians and a majority of the population who only recognise the sovereignty of the people of Scotland.

    Good luck with that.

    Nae wunner Stu’s took a scunner.

  117. CameronB Brodie says:

    Here’s how it’s done. First you force the Scottish government to allow a vote on indy (I’d hope the next SGE). We win that unless the campaign is designed by the woke set. Then we write a constitution fit for purpose, and reform Scots law and our judiciary. What’s not to like about that?

    Constitutional Rights and Constitutional Design
    Moral and Empirical Reasoning in Judicial Review

  118. Breeks says:

    Set aside the why’s and ambiguous intentions for a moment… and of course, put Alex Salmond out of your mind too.

    In purely objective terms, a Scottish Leader who somehow remains secure and popular with the electorate throughout 6 years of electoral stagnation because she obligingly parks independence up a cul de sac while the UK negotiates Brexit, a US-UK trade deal and deregulation, and a grossly mismanaged pandemic with 10,000’s deaths, has been an absolute godsend for the jammy Boris Johnson and his thoroughly abysmal and incompetent Tory Government. I’m sure Boris would be the first to admit he couldn’t have done it without their fulsome cooperation.

    For Scotland, Independence, and Scotland’s sovereign constitution, … not so much. Bit of a disaster to be truthful.

  119. liz says:

    The Covid situation has been a godsend for NS.
    Alex S is holding off until it’s over, one reason IMO, she’s milking it.

    She’s telling the ‘shielded’to remain at home till July 31st? I know it’s not compulsory but the number of people on twitter, saying I haven’t seen my grandkids since beginning of March & now I won’t be allowed to till end of July.

    When did we become so gaddam compliant?

    Still far too many can’t see past her, she’s failed to keep us in the EU, failed to protect EU citizens etc, etc, so why do people still hang on to every word?

    The only hope IMO is Joanna Cherry but guaranteed, the full SNP machine will get behind Angus Robertson.

    Keith Brown is useless which is why she and the SNP team supported him, there are other ways apart from a referendum. NS has no vision, she’s a competent administrator, no more.

    I hope to God Alex S can do something to get her to step aside,

  120. Martin says:

    Capella says:

    9 June, 2020 at 12:04 pm

    How much worse could being in the UK get?

    Very much worse…. The deadline for this is at the end of June. I would expect a major shift in opinion after that.

    Capella, I like your comments. You bring brevity and belief in your writing, and I admire your faith here. Unfortunatrly I do not share it. For 6 years I’ve held my tongue with “when this happens we’ll see a shift, we’re bound to!” running through my head. And yet no matter the steady stepward decline in peoples’ lives, or the worsening of the Scottish powers, nothing has shifted. And even if it did, what would it matter? UK Gov has made clear they won’t grant indyref2, SNP have made clear that’s their only route.

    Unfortunately we may be more politically awake and engaged, but we have rarely been more trapped in the 300+ years of this union.

    Either something massive must change at Westminster (unlikely) or politics must change radically in Scotland (marginally less unlikely but still very unlikely).

    I hope I’m wrong, but I fear I’m not.

  121. Alex says:

    It is almost as though events like Davidson making big gains in the 2017 election on the argument “no to another indyref”, or for instance, people’s fears over uncertainty in independence sparked by Brexit uncertainty have had an effect.

    At which date should there have been indyref2? Do you believe there’s been any date the SNP could’ve launched it which would not in itself have damaged the cause?

  122. Martin says:

    Alex says:

    9 June, 2020 at 2:47 pm

    At which date should there have been indyref2? Do you believe there’s been any date the SNP could’ve launched it which would not in itself have damaged the cause?

    I’d say anytime during the “Scotland will not be taken out of the EU against its will” period. You know, before Scotland was taken out of the EU against its will and the SNP became perceived abject failures and empty vessels.

  123. Terry says:

    Spot on analysis.

    Rev Stu – any chance Alex will be back? He’s the man for the job? Or Jo Cherry? They both inspire confidence and care more about Scottish independence than their own ego or prestige. You can tell.

    There’s power in the yes and indy groups round Scotland. Believe me. They are simmering about certain stuff going on in snp leadership.

  124. A Person says:

    I don’t agree with tearing down statues of people who did reprehensible things to people of color in the past, and I don’t agree with tearing down Sutherland’s monument either. What he did was wrong but it’s a part of Scottish history. By keeping it up in an independent Scotland we could show what we’ve moved on from.

    As Rev Stu says, how much worse does being British have to get before a majority in Scotland get sick of it? As another poster has commented, the 48% who want to reject independence can’t all be Orangemen and aristocrats. The idea that “the last straw for them will be X” is not tenable. Brexit, Johnson, looming no deal Brexit, siding up to Trump, now this (IMO rather unsurprising) utter mishandling of this virus, with tens of thousands dead and millions unemployed, the impending breakdown of law and order (I don’t entirely blame black people for being utterly disgusted with Britain, with an outright bigot like Johnson in charge)- we should be at 75%, so why aren’t we? Can’t be stuff like the currency- independence is no less risky from that perspective than Brexit.

  125. Martin says:

    Terry says:

    9 June, 2020 at 2:50 pm

    Spot on analysis.

    Rev Stu – any chance Alex will be back? He’s the man for the job? Or Jo Cherry? They both inspire confidence and care more about Scottish independence than their own ego or prestige. You can tell.

    There’s power in the yes and indy groups round Scotland. Believe me. They are simmering about certain stuff going on in snp leadership.

    Joanna Cherry for me. Salmond is a tour de force but unfortunately will be forever “tainted” by the court battle- no matter what he proves going forward. That’s the way of these things I’m afraid. Cherry would be an excellent leader who would work to put the primary focus back on indy, which is exactly why the party full of oppotunists will never allow her the chance.

  126. SilverDarling says:

    Hi Clapper57

    All well here. The Labour voter who changed vote is interesting. I think that is the experience of a lot of now politically homeless voters. They made, what to them was, a considered and momentous change based on moving towards Independence. They are now wondering what was the point.

    There has to be something to vote for.

    I want Independence but the ‘Hate Crime Bill’ is not something I would vote for in a million years. Trouble is the only people who would oppose it are the Tories because the Greens, LibDems and Labour are all as much of a lost cause as each other.

    I cannot ever vote Tory.

    Independence support is stuck hovering around 50%. There is no active campaign because that would be bad taste apparently and of course the
    Women’s Rights policies of the SNP are so ridiculous.

    So who do I vote for?

  127. Dan says:

    As an engineer I often find myself in situations where a special unique tool is require to complete a task over and above the normal conventional tool array.
    These specific tools can be very expensive to purchase if it is just a one off job you need it for.
    These situations when they occur give one’s brain the opportunity to solve a problem using unconventional strategies, because the conventional way would make the task uneconomic or add lots more time to complete the task.
    EG: You can remove a pressed in outer bearing race from a blind hole if you modify two cheap dome headed coach bolts by filing flats in them to a dimension that allow them to catch the race edge and lift it from its borehole when the bolts are squeezed together.
    Brain power, problem solving, lateral thought FTW! 😉
    Well, where was I going with this…
    Oh, yeah, if the SNP leadership won’t listen to or take onboard the valid concerns of some of its members, then maybe a different method is required to exert pressure.

    Something along the lines of: If they do not produce a specifically worded manifesto to actually progress the Indy cause (not some Sec.30 more jam tomorrow BS) for the next Holyrood Election, then some of their activists will not campaign for them.
    That same people power could even be used to leverage the dropping of other policies some find wholly inappropriate to be focusing on at this important time.


    Further threat could even be applied if required to the point of actively campaigning against the Party should they ignore the ultimatum given to them by their activists.

    Monster Truck – For The People

  128. CameronB Brodie says:

    The jargon on the previous page is the sort of lingo the bods in the white coats use when analysing stuff like discrimination. Like what British constitutionalism institutionalises big style (see Brexit). 😉

    Full text.

    Comparison in intersectional discrimination

  129. ahundredthidiot says:

    It’s, London 6 – Scotland 0

    and the National thinks we’re going to equalise any moment now….

  130. Capella says:

    @ Martin 2.47 – thx for the compliment but I think people have very short memories sometimes. BREXIT was scheduled to happen in March 2018. Westminster has bungled and stumbled on for 4 years now. Four years, two elections and two prime ministers later we are still within the EU jurisdiction and may continue to be for another two years.

    This has meant that the SNP have waited for the BREXIT shambles to play out. It is still playing out.

    UK Gov has made clear they won’t grant indyref2. SNP have made clear that’s their only route.

    No they haven’t. They have said that a referendum is the best route. But they haven’t spelt out what they will do if Westminster refuses to engage. What they have made clear is that the Scottish people have to back a YES vote and demand a referendum. Last time, the Scottish people voted NO. Now they are tending towards YES in spite of the relentless propaganda aimed against it.

  131. CameronB Brodie says:

    I’m afraid I’m not happy with the SNP waiting for the correct political moment, when Westminster thinks Scots are essentially their slaves.

    Full text.

    On uses, mis-uses and non-uses of intersectionality before the Court of Justice (EU)

  132. Vivian O'Blivion says:

    Peter A Bell @ 12:15
    “Contrary to what some claim, list votes always count. Especially if they amount to more than 50%!”
    That statement regarding the working of the D’Hondt system couldn’t be further from the truth if you tried. If you can’t (or won’t) grasp a simple arithmetical algorithm I am disinclined to listen to the rest of your argument.

  133. jfngw says:


    Saw this on twitter, the Tory politician’s all standing there, it reminded me of the ‘Who’ Next’ album cover.

  134. Andy Ellis says:

    @ Alex Montrose 1.43pm

    So what if the SNP or SNP/Greens do win a majority at Holyrood in 2021? Unless and until they grow a pair and stand at those or any other elections on a platform that a majority vote for pro-indy parties is a mandate for indy, where does it get us?

    All Johnson has to do is repeat May’s “Now is still not the time” response and, as is quite obvious from the past few years, the First Minister will do hee haw about it.

    Accepting that self determination is something Westminster has to authorise is not something any self respecting democrat should do. What SNP loyalists and fans of Nicola Sturgeon have to explain is why those of us who are not true believers should take the SNP’s promises remotely seriously?

  135. CameronB Brodie says:

    Andy Ellis
    There’s no arguing with that, IMHO. Sorry for being a bit abrasive a while back.

  136. Iain More says:

    How dare those too wee and too poor and too stupid and too filthy Kiwis defeat the coronavirus. They don’t even have feckin oil.

  137. Republicofscotland says:

    And to add more woe to that, Sturgeons stock will be up as the acolytes think she’s handled this pandemic well.

    Looks like we’ll be in for years of we’ve got the mandates but London says no rhetoric from Sturgeon and her clique. Unless we force Sturgeon somehow, to use next years Scottish elections as a marker for independence, however I’d imagine she’ll rule that out, as it might actually lead to independence.

    Looks like your holiday will be a very long one Stu.

  138. Clapper57 says:

    @ Capella @ 2.07pm

    “Thanks for sharing that experience”.

    Hi Capella….to you I give a smiley face emoji thingy …sorry not techno techno so can only write it and not add the emoji onto this comment.

    Have a nice evening.

  139. weechid says:

    Sick of the whole shebang. Wish the SNP would just be honest about their position and stop with the false promises. They are becoming as bad as Labour.

  140. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Oh sorry – I thought a vote was a poll, only using a much larger sample therefore more likely to be accurate barring cheating.”

    It’s 100% accurate every time. Unlike opinion polls. Therefore THEY’RE NOT THE SAME FUCKING THING AND SHOULDN’T BE COMPARED.

  141. Capella says:

    @ Clapper57 – to you too – for a smiley, make sure there’s a space after your last character then type a colon : and a close bracket ) 🙂

    For a sad face it’s a colon : and an open bracket ( 🙁

    Finger crossed!

  142. Andy Ellis says:

    @Capella 3.03pm

    Surely the SNP should have been straining every fibre to ensure Scotland was not in a position to be taken out of the EU against its will? Rather than spend years tilting at windmills in Westminster it would have been better advised to ensure there was a Plan B. Not only has it signally failed to do so, it has actively set its face against having such an alternative route.

    The stodgy, managerialist gradualists heading the party have in effect achieved the worst of all worlds:

    – they have failed to deliver any significant “new” devolution or tried to ensure Scotland looked more like (say) the Faroe Islands vis-a-vis Denmark than a glorified English county by means of establishing distinctly Scottish institutions for governance and control of all areas of government apart from e.g. defence and foreign affairs;

    – they have failed to settle the legal issue about the “legality” of referendums held without a S30 order from Westminster;

    – they have tacitly accepted a British nationalist veto on Scottish self determination on the altar of the 60%/Westminster sanctioned “Gold Standard” referendum with no alternative path.

    It is overwhelmingly likely that Scotland will be outside the EU for an extended period due to the SNPs lack of bottle and failure to ensure #indyref2 happens beforehand. It will (as Stu and many of us have consistently argued) be much harder to achieve both indy or EU membership the longer we are outside, and the longer we wait.

  143. Lorna Campbell says:

    Clapper57: that story about your NO to YES friend illustrates precisely why it is so chancey to place any faith in supposed NO to YES persuasion. I keep saying that even if we get a referendum – highly unlikely – we still have to win it. I don’t think that the story shows that campaigning is the answer. Campaigning for 2014 probably got us as many definite YES voters are we are likely to get. If the polls show consistently – by that, I mean three in a row – that we are even marginally ahead, we should go for it because, by international standards, that would be enough. I just wish we could refrain from spouting the myth that we need a pre independence indyref because it is absolute nonsense. We would require a confirmatory referendum after independence, though to reflect democracy. We have it backside over chest.

  144. callmedave says:

    Not enough waverers moving from NO to Yes
    Still clinging onto Union nurse
    For fear of finding something worse

    Maybe the same in Scotland
    Many (including NO’s) clinging to Scottish nurse
    For fear of finding something worse

    Aye it’s a conundrum right enough.

    Tommy Sheridan loses Supreme Court bid over perjury conviction

    School out as Boris’ plan fails.


    Todays figures:

    N. Ireland……..00…..Total……537….BBC
    UK………….today…no data..Total….40726….BBC

    Excess deaths reported in UK now at about 64000. 🙁

  145. ahundredthidiot says:

    The SNP was the Steward of Scotland when she was taken out of the EU against Her will.

    That is the history we have made as a Nation.

    At the very least, the Leaders should step down from their Roles – both at Edinburgh and London – without the need to even ask.

    or they can be politicians……with a small p

  146. lothianlad says:

    Mentioned it already, Nicola Sturgeon is being worked by the British secret service!

    Im not sure if she shares the ideology of the union, but she is certainly being controlled by the secret service. She is effectively paying back the people who helped put her in power.

    Her ruthlessness to get to the top was a factor assisted by those with a vested interest in her rise through the ranks.

    Given that MI6 and the British state secret service were able to influence foreign governments and infiltration of organisations opposed to the British state,
    preparing the way for thousands of tonnes of military hardware to be deployed for illegal and immoral wars they will engage in black ops to discredit and crush any threat to the union.

    They will of course be supported by their compliant media. So does anyone think that its inconceivable that they have not infiltrated the highest levels of the SNP?

    There is a very nasty undercurrent coursing through the SNP at the moment with dangerous anti nature and anti civil liberty policies.

    Add to that the way Independence has been ditched since Sturgeon took over, and you have the perfect ingredients for the Brit secret service to wage war within the SNP and destroy the Independence movement.

    sites like this one and the bravery of folk like Craig Murray and Mark Hirst, have helped make people aware of the danger to the Indy cause by the current SNP leadership who have a strangle hold on the party at every level.

    The stakes are too high to allow the current leadership to continue. We definitely do need another person at the wheel!!

  147. Effijy says:

    It seems that Dominic Cummings Father in law
    Has shown the families true colours.

    He called one of his horses Barack as it half Black and White. Wow!

    No wonder Dodging Dom wants to restrict the press attendees at Downing St to Tory friendly papers only. It doesn’t leave out many when you include the red Tory press.

  148. Andy Ellis says:

    @ Lorna Campbell 3.48pm

    Yes went from high 20’s % to 45% between 2012 and 2014. If it wasn’t largely due to the campaign, what accounts for the increase?

    Imagine where we might be now if the SNP and Yes movement had been campaigning hard since mid 2018 on an explicit platform that (absent Westminster honouring the 2012 precedent for #indyref2) >50% of votes for pro-indy parties in the 2021 Holyrood elections would be taken as a mandate for indy?

    We only need to get lucky once. 50% +1 is enough. sadly what we are lacking is a governing party with the balls to initiate a campaign and bring about the result.

  149. Clapper57 says:

    @ Capella @ 3.41pm

    Thanks 🙂

    (bet my effort when submitted just shows as punctuation and NOT a smiley face…Lol….your instructions though were perfect and easy to understand…but bear in mind the person you have sent them too is not…Lol)

  150. Shug says:

    Paid unionists are on here telling us the snp is bad and they are united in their venom and hatred.
    The national is running articles telling the Labour Party what they are doing wrong
    They should leave the Labour Party alone they are doing what they do really well
    Forget the armchair politicians bleating about the snp not going for indyref 2 it will come
    Much better to wait and pick up the farmer and fishermen when they realise they have been sold a pup
    As we exit the eu and staunch unionists see a border on the Irish Sea even they will question Westminster
    It is not enough to tell them, they will not believe you so let them feel the pain of the union

  151. Ottomanboi says:

    The SG has approved the Edinburgh tram extension to Newhaven.
    Spanish, English and Irish companies involved.
    Rather pathetic for a country once the home of engineering.
    Stands Scotland where she did?

  152. Capella says:

    @ Clapper57 – well done! 🙂

    @ Rev Stu – yes that was the point. The REAL vote in the referendum effectively removes the DON’T KNOWS. The opinion polls atm, without the DON’T KNOWS, puts YES at 52%. A higher figure.

    2014 polling figures:

    Of course, I am giving the pollsters the benefit of the doubt in assuming that their sampling and weighting methods reflect a true cross section of the electorate. If they don’t there’s hardly any point in paying any attention to them.

  153. Clapper57 says:

    @ Me @ 4.05pm

    Yipee I have broken through the barrier….done a smiley face emoji… work is done….oh yeh….( thanks very much to Capella…..who is the Master and I the pupil….)

    Watch this space…techno techno….. 🙂

    Just showing off now….

  154. Colin Alexander says:

    The fundamental basis of the UK state is UK Parliament is sovereign.
    That’s what Cherry argued and proved at the Supreme Court.

    Whether by indyref YES vote or election mandate (that Nicola Sturgeon has already ruled out), can anyone explain how Scotland’s politicians achieve indy when UK Parliament says No to Scotland’s independence- unless Scotland declares itself no bound by the constitution of the UK?

  155. CameronB Brodie says:

    Colin Alexander
    I’d suggest Westminster no longer feels bound by the constitution, so that bridge has already been crossed (see Brexit). All we need is for someone with the political will to support the rule-of-law. Otherwise, Scotland will be further removed from international law, and so will find it all the harder to achieve constitutional justice.

    The Signifificance of Natural Law in Contemporary Legal Thought

  156. Col.Blimp IV says:

    It is beyond me why anyone would be the least bit interested in a second Referendum.

    I will be voting for a party that asserts that the people of Scotland are the sovereign power and for a party who supports the view that the governance of Scotland should be conducted by the elected representatives of the people of Scotland, at a parliament in Scotland.

    I hope that party is the SNP!

    Where is the need for a referendum?

    They need only win the Election.

    Who is putting unnecessary obstacles in the path of independence and why – are the questions the rank and file should be demanding answers to.

  157. Capella says:

    @ Clapper57 – don’t forget to leave a space between your last character and your smiley otherwise you’ll get this:) instead of this 🙂

    There’s also the wink, a semi-colon ; and a close bracket ) 😉

  158. Republicofscotland says:

    Meanwhile as another poll shows yes in the lead, I think, or am I getting mixed with the plethora of mandates that are now just bog roll, Neil Oliver the president of the NTS is to shut our Bannockburn attraction until 2022, so we’ll get no inspiration from their then.

  159. Dan says:

    I see a certain T. Blair aka Haunted Skeletor Tormented By A Myriad Dead Souls punting the idea we need a Digital ID to prove we are “disease free” before we can leave our homes and travel.
    I’ll counter that with a call for a Digital ID to prove folk are not a psychopaths capable of causing the deaths of thousands before anybody has to listen to their pish.

    Anyway, got to get back to finishing my shift for The Scottish Plantation Owners. This endless unpaid work of mandate farming is hard graft.
    Turns on music…
    Rage Against The Machine – Maggie’s Farm

  160. callmedave says:

    Todays figures:

    Update latest:

    N. Ireland……..00…..Total……537….BBC

    Excess deaths reported in UK now at about 64000. ?

    Care homes deaths in England now 13460.

  161. Duncan Macniven says:

    “Andy Ellis says:
    9 June, 2020 at 1:11 pm
    @Stuart MacKay

    I kinda disagree. One of the first orders of business post indy should be either to order the Scottish Self Defence Forces to blow the Duke’s monument up, or to replace his statue with someone more suitable…. ;-p”

    The Mannie as he is known locally is a pluke on the face of Scotland, and should be knocked down and ground up to construct an even higher statue to the evicted people who suffered terribly at the hands of his henchmen.

    A road to the top of Ben Bhraggie, and a car park with an information centre on the clearances, another popular venue, telling Scotland’s true story. As long as Historic Scotland and Neil Oliver are kept clear of it.

    It is often stated by the Toffs that the statue was erected by his grateful tenants, who clubbed together to pay for it.

    That clubbing took place but it was the head’s of his tenants that were being clubbed. You either paid up or were evicted and your property burned to the ground and your family banished.

    There are families in those parts who still thrive on the proceeds of the clearances, large estates and farms did not become large by endeavour and fair play. They were taken and given to those in favour.

    Knock him down.

  162. Ian says:

    “To win a referendum WE HAVE TO BE ABLE TO ACTUALLY HAVE ONE. How is it that you imagine that coming about, exactly?”

    Ask for a Section 30 in January. When that is refused, declare that the election in May 2021 is solely about independence. Make that the ‘referendum’. A definite decision date and five months of real Brexit chaos should convince the 10-15% of doubters where their vote should be cast.

    It’s not about holding a referendum, it’s about winning independence.

  163. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Ask for a Section 30 in January. When that is refused, declare that the election in May 2021 is solely about independence. Make that the ‘referendum’.”

    I’d be all for that. Let’s see if the SNP do it.

    [SPOILER: They absolutely 100% will not.]

  164. Duncan Macniven says:


  165. Oneliner says:

    @Duncan Macniven

    I too am a resident of ‘Clearance Corner’. The Mannie has outstayed his welcome(?)

    Where do I sign?

  166. Robert Louis says:

    We have the nastiest, most twisted corrupt and useless, Scotland-hating government ever in London. The entire fabric of the UK yoon management, is in disarray, and STILL the SNP sit on their hands dawdling all the while, doing absolutely nothing to achieve independence. Leeting country be shafted by a lazt, pig-ignorant. Bullingdon-boy nob.

    The current SNP leadership is utterly, utterly useless in achieving independence. I mean seriously f***ing inept.

    Move over Sturgeon, stop lining your pockets and playing pretendy politics. If YOU won’t get us independence, or EVEN MAKE THE SLIGHTEST EFFORT, then move over and let somebody else do it. Just a week ago, you said you would attend the black lives matter protest, were it not for lockdown. You have attended demos in London on Brexit, and Pride, but cannot, simply WILL NOT countenance attending an indy march. Always some pathetic excuse. You are a sham.

  167. twathater says:

    @ Dan 2.55pm Dan I submitted a comment about 4 posts ago proposing the very thing you are talking about but not even 1 comment to say whether it was feasable or not , unfortunately I haven’t the time or inclination to look for it but it was a process.

    According to the comments on here and twatter most indy supporters are outraged and frustrated at NS and the broad SNP party for their ambivalence and lack of movement or PASSION for indy , there is NO DOUBT that NS and the SNP will have to be THREATENED that if they do not concede with indy supporters wishes they will face the loss of their privileged and comfortable positions
    I personally am sick and tired of their COWARDICE to challenge the WM establishment and to PROTECT the citizens of Scotland, THEY MUST BE SHOWN THAT AS WE ELECT THEM SO WE ALSO CAN DESTROY THEM , SCOTLAND MUST NOT BE TAKEN OUT OF THE EU end of

  168. Albaman says:

    There’s nothing as queer as folk, the Scots on here a reverting to type, arguing amongst themselves, it’s been the downfall within Scotland for centuries.
    Yes, Rev is an angry young man, angry at the pace of the S.N.P. towards independence,
    but rest assured, Westminster/Whitehall would love a ” hung-ho” attitude, they’ve been handling those situations for centuries.
    I refuse to counter that Nicola Sturgeon is content with the present situation, her whole political life has been geared towards independence, yes, so was Alex’s, and it probably is stronger now, given the legal situation he’s had to live with for months,I doubt that will hold him back from taking part in the political maelstrom which is round them corner .
    I’m a wee bit like Juteman here, “hinging oan by ma broken finger nails “.

  169. Clapper57 says:

    @ Lorna Campbell @ 3.48pm

    Hi Lorna, I get what you’re saying….and like me you are probably pig sick of this …..unfortunately there seems to be a whirlwind of news…mostly bad…that is overwhelming everyone…be it Brexit, Trump, Corona Virus each one with their own sub plots to add even further dimensions to these BIG news stories.

    Scottish Independence and the means of achieving of it is being swamped by OTHER ‘pressing’ issues it seems…and most of these issues dominated by those who do NOT want Scotland to be independent….

    It’s like we are all drowning in what seems like an eternal catastrophe and all of this seems to diminish our valid and reasonable argument for Scotland to gain independence….

    Let’s be honest, with all of this dithering a lot of division is being generated within the Indy movement and…. opinions of how and when to go for it (Indy)…and indeed who will lead us to it (SNP ?)…is divided also…..

    Feels as if just now we are static and consigned to adding constant comments onto blogs , writing letters to our MSP’s & MP’s & also for some The National, forming groups for even more talking , attending marches, relying on polls and yet we are being told that we have no definitive/alternative plan of action apart from the ‘legal’ route (asking for Section 30 order from the UK Govt.) which also seems to come with no cut off date… fact I am even getting apathetic writing this comment as , like many others, it seems to be a carbon copy of something I have written before….Groundhog Day.

    There is a Carrot and a Stick and I am not sure who is offering the Carrot and who is holding the Stick …..and I say this in the context of the SNP…and I’m a blinking member….

    Have a nice evening ( sorry for , once again, the over long comment….you inspired me) 🙂

  170. Dan says:


    I suppose it is an inevitable consequence that many folk are now being forced to consider ways to address the situation we find ourselves in.
    SNP activists pressuring the SNP leadership might actually be the better option than a Regional List Party if there was anything in the SNP manifesto that resolved the situation.
    How and ever, without knowing it just means time ticks away and leaves planning and campaigning for either option compromised.
    My practical mind is in shreds watching the total inefficiency of moving forward with a coherent plan and strategy.

    It’s rather ironic that if Scotland hadn’t been taken out the EU against its will then I wouldn’t be giving Yon Blowhard such a hard time, as I’d be planning to sell up and making use of the freedom of movement and capital to get the heck out of the woke tartan dystopian future playing out here, and try to build a more fulfilling existence elsewhere with what is left of my life.

    Anyway, I’ll cheekly drop another tune in for the lyrics that some may find remarkably apt seeing there’s a new article up.

    Paul Young – I’m Gonna Tear Your Playhouse Down.

  171. mike cassidy says:

    A wee glimpse into the Woke Future.

    Little Britain pulled from iPlayer and Netflix because ‘times have changed’

    Monty Python next?

  172. Mike d says:

    Covid 19, a hard Brexit looming, austerity, foodbanks, chlorinated /steroidal sh**e food coming from America, and a very likely SNHS sell off with the possibility of direct rule being imposed from London. How bad does it really have to be ffs before Scots will get off their a**es and take ‘their country back.

  173. cirsium says:

    @Albaman, 5.59
    the Scots on here a reverting to type, arguing amongst themselves, it’s been the downfall within Scotland for centuries.

    Do you not think that it is more a case of the leadership being subverted or overpowered?

  174. Mike d says:

    Col.blimp IV 4.43pm. I’ve never understood this need for a referendum. A Holyrood election with an independence mandate is a democratic decision. Never mind the percentage needed sh**e. If its good enough for the brexiteers in England, its damn well good enough for us.

  175. CameronB Brodie says:

    I’m afraid all these ‘gold standards’ are the affectations of someone who considers their judgement superior to international law. They do nothing to protect Scotland, which is the FM’s first duty. So the FM does not appear prepared to support international human rights law.

    Access to Justice as a Human Right

  176. Big Jock says:

    Mike you are right.

    If the ruling country block all other avenues to independence. Then using the ballot box is the only way to establish sovereignty.

    This idea that the UN or EU only recognise a WM section 30. Is utter invented bollocks. It’s being used by the SNP to actively prevent the use of other avenues to independence.

    The question then is, why are the SNP doing this? The only possible reason can be , that they don’t want independence in the next 10 years. I expect it’s a combination of politics, finance and fear. That’s why they keep talking about 60% support. It’s another reason to delay.

    Salmond went on 25% support. So again the 60% stuff is part of the delay strategy.

    Notice how quickly Keith Brown shot down the suggestion of a Holyrood referendum!

    They are conning all of us!

  177. Big Jock says:


    Correct. It all adds up to the same conclusion in my previous post. The SNP are delighted that Boris said no. It takes the heat off them. They knew it was no before they asked. So why did they deliberately corner themselves?

    Covid-19 was another good reason to put off the referendum. Is it stopping Boris’s Brexit, is it hell.

  178. CameronB Brodie says:

    Of course, if Scotland’s government is not prepared to respect international law and defend human rights, then they are no better than the Tories in Westminster.

    Human Rights, International
    Economic Law and
    ‘ Constitutional Justice ’

  179. CameronB Brodie says:

    Big Jock
    I hate being correct, in this case anyway.

  180. Clapper57 says:

    @ Big Jock @ 9.08pm

    “Is it stopping Boris’s Brexit, is it hell”.

    Hey Big Jock….excellent point there….spot on.

    Have a good evening…

  181. twathater says:

    @ Dan My idea would be that ALL the YES hubs ,SNP branches ,AUOB members and individuals PRINT OFF a universal form with a statement saying

    I twathater will not be voting SNP in ANY forthcoming election UNTIL NS states categorically and in writing that for ALL future elections that the SNP participates in we will now go forward with a plebiscite that ,if elected as the SG we will declare that with immediate effect due to the wishes of the sovereign people of Scotland we now suspend the treaty of union and will now negotiate the separation of assets and resources .
    A referendum will be held at a later date, within 2 years to ratify the people’s decision of dissolution where the people will have the option to renegotiate a NEW treaty of union

    In the interim the GRA amendments and the Hate crime bill MUST be paused until a period AFTER independence where the PEOPLE can have their say in a referendum

    Surely a statement and form such as this would have the support of all interested parties and would encourage NS to listen to the voters and her membership

  182. twathater says:

    @ me 9.59pm If Nicola wasn’t interested in acting on this missive it would at least show us dissenters and the broader indy movement the direction of travel and we could vote or not based on her response

  183. ronnie anderson says:

    ? BDTT tip sos Cappella

  184. Capella says:

    @ ronnie anderson 10.25 eh?

  185. Contrary says:


    Populism in action.

    I submit that it is the populist support – that unquestioning acceptance of everything the SNP do, however mad – that is holding us back from independence. It’s not the SNP per se, because, as said here, it is power and popularity (and careers) where their focus lies, their attitudes can and would change if people just thought to criticise them for not doing what they said they’d do.

  186. Tartanpigsy says:

    RepublicofScotland at 3.32pm yesterday has the key question.
    How do we make the Scottish Government and Scottish Parliament sit up and take notice?
    Demo’s anywhere on Saturdays aren’t gonna do it.
    They need to be directly challenged on their strategies at their place of work, when they are there.
    The same applies to the BBC

  187. desimond says:

    Will Nicola stand down next year and step aside to allow someone like Joanna Cherry to charge ahead or will we just continue on the inching strategy…

    First thing should have been a removal of SNP members from Westminster…but no, comfy is as comfy does…

    I know folk will say “its the long game” but same applies to Scottish Labour so be careful that whilst you dreamily look forward, you dont forget to look in your rear view mirror…

  188. tarisgal says:

    Surely we’re going to know by end of summer whether Scotgov is competent to hold a Referendum WITHOUT WM’s ‘permission’. That IS what Martin Keatings’ court case is all about, isn’t it? He thinks that the ruling should be given in 10/12 weeks. If, as Aidan O’Neill, QC believes & Martin (& SNP) wins his case, then it will be up to SNP to set a Ref date.

    (Its only fair to say that Scotgov are also part of this case with Martin, (though for reasons I can’t remember, they are cited with WM & not Martin) and Nicola keeps abreast of the proceedings, getting updates & copies of all the documentation to do with it.)

    On a positive ruling, the Scottish legislation to push an IndyRef bill though, will have to be done quickly in order that WM do not quickly push through an amendment to the Scotland Act to make it illegal. Apparently that too could result in Court action as, if the courts have found Scotland to be compentent to have a Ref, amending the Scotland Act to prohibit Scottish competency could be construed as illegal. HOWEVER, if SNP have the necessary legislation in place by the time of a positive ruling, it SHOULD be Scotgov get their Referendum machinery into gear.

    Of course there are other ways to attain independence (read:

    but as Nicola has been at pains to declare, a Sec.30 is her gold standard so I do not foresee her using Craig’s method. (IS THERE such a thing as a ‘gold standard’? We’ve only had one IndyRef & that Sec.30 wasn’t even sought. It was a mutual agreement between Cameron & Salmond. It wasn’t and I don’t believe it is even NOW, a legal ‘thing’!!)

    Thus, my point – I shall wait to see what Scotgov do with a positive Court outcome. If they don’t have the paperwork ready to go, and do not call a Ref., I will know that in continuing to support SNP, I am peeing in the wind. And I will know whether they have earned my support – or not. This is MY red line. If they let me down, I’m not sure WHAT I am going to do – how I vote in 2021 I mean. For the moment, I’m waiting for the Court case to conclude & see what follows…

  189. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Surely we’re going to know by end of summer whether Scotgov is competent to hold a Referendum WITHOUT WM’s ‘permission’. That IS what Martin Keatings’ court case is all about, isn’t it?”

    No, that’s not what it’s about. He’s basically arguing that the UK government doesn’t have the right to refuse a Section 30 order, which it absolutely does.

    The web page says “It is the intention of this action, to duly notify the UK Government that should they fail to acquiesce to a formal request by the Scottish Government for a Section 30 order […] the people, not just the Government of Scotland will seek to defend our civil and political rights by initiating legal action against them.”

    That doesn’t really mean anything. The UK parliament is sovereign on the constitution and can refuse any such request. There’s no basis in law for taking “legal action” against them for that, no law they could possibly be held to have broken.

    What ISN’T clear, and what his case DOESN’T address, is whether the Scotland Act prevents the Scottish Government from holding a referendum on independence. That’s a matter of interpretation of the Scotland Act, nothing to do with Section 30.

  190. Contrary says:

    Stu, that’s not quite what the case is about, the submission is that does Holyrood have the authority to legislate, as the law currently stands, for an independence referendum without Westminster permission. And it does address the issue you claim it doesn’t, if you read the judicial review argument – but I’m not sure why I pick up the aim differently from you though, so I might take another look at all the documents.

    The point is: the question needs to be answered, no one actually knows, such is the mess of the constitution in the uk, so it is hard to argue either way – we just don’t know. This court case can only benefit us, and is why all politicians are avoiding it for their own reasons, because it either is the case & Holyrood is then forced into legislating (or SNP will lose the popular independence support), or we find out it is not the case and we know that there will never be a political or legal route – so the SNP will have to come up with a better plan (or lose popular support,,, though I’m sure the result of the case will be kept quiet or made to look different than it is). If the case doesn’t ask this question I’ll be furious, in an understated way.

  191. Gregory Beekman says:

    My late contribution (no, I’m not dead).

    I think we’re being a bit unfair on Nicola Sturgeon. YES lost in 2014 (partly thanks to Alex Salmond’s poor performance against Darling) and it’s a pretty low point to start from.

    Would anyone here, if in NS’s shoes, have called for #indyref2 in 2015?

    The only reason we’re credibly talking about another indyref is because the English very helpfully voted for Brexit. If they hadn’t, there’d be no prospect of indyref2 anytime soon. (Thanks England!)

    And that Brexit vote result took us all by surprise. NS – rightly or wrongly – chose to woo the Remain vote as part of her long-term indy strategy. Has that strategy worked? I don’t know but my ardent NO-voting friends are now either definitely YES or have admitted they are now thinking YES is the best option.

    It’s almost a fortnight away from the fourth anniversary of the Brexit referendum and Brexit hasn’t even properly happened yet. So I think it’s wrong to blame NS for not moving faster. I think she is genuinely hamstrung by the slowness of Brexit.

    But once the transition period ends in December, and assuming the pandemic is over, then NS has no excuses – and neither do Westminster – for delaying a new indyref.

    Thus, I’m hoping 2021 will be the year we capitalise on Brexit and secure a S30 order for #indyref2.

  192. Gregory Beekman says:

    @twathater 5:39 says

    And just how does NS do that? She has no power to do it.

    Plus, many YES voters love Brexit so much, they’re now NO voters. “No to foreign rule” is their mantra. Brussels is foreign rule but now Westminster isn’t.

    Scotland WILL leave the EU and there’s no getting away from that fact. I just hope it p*sses off enough people that we become independent as a result.

  193. Chipmonkey says:

    There is nothing to stop the Yes movement going in to full campaign mode NOW. Work together and hit everywhere with a single issue, say every 1 or 2 weeks, to be co-ordinated. Get the polls all moving for real. Make a consistent substantial shift to Yes. It will then be reasonable for the democratic event that is the Scottish Parliament election to become the mandate. A clear vote of over 50% of those entitled to vote voting for independence makes that independence actually viable.

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