The world's most-read Scottish politics website

Wings Over Scotland


How to turn £33 into £34 very slowly

Posted on July 16, 2015 by

Alert contributor Calum Ferguson tells us the first bookie to come out with odds for the 2016 Holyrood election is Ladbrokes. Fortune-making opportunities seem limited.

lad2016

(Click pic to enlarge.)

You can get just 5/2 on the SNP taking every single constituency seat in the land (they currently have 53 of 73), and a mere 1/12 (ie you have to wager £12 to win £1) on an absolute majority.

That seems incredibly stingy given that you need 66 seats for a majority and even on current polling – TNS today gives them 60% to Labour’s 20% – they’re only projected to get about 71, so the Nats’ margin for error is actually pretty small.

On that basis 6/1 for “no overall majority” looks like the value bet, but to win on that you’d need Labour to improve significantly on their 2011 showing, and that’d be a bold punt indeed. 2/7 on the SNP failing to win all 73 constituencies probably offers the best realistic chance to make a profit (of 29%), because they’d only have to miss out in one seat (probably in the Northern Isles or the Borders) for the bet to pay out.

If you’re more of a gambler and fancy a long shot, 3/1 on the Tories to finish with more seats than Labour might well be worth a tickle. But betting on the SNP to win most seats (£33 to win £1) is a bet so bad that even in this low-interest day and age, you’d probably make more money putting your cash in an ISA.

Subscribe
Notify of
guest

33 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Kieran Cameron

Shame I missed out on their earlier offer for Corbyn to be next Labour leader at 100/1 before they slashed it down to 7/2. Would have been a fun one to watch.

Croompenstein

Wait till SLab put Creepy Jim on the list and the odds will tumble 🙂

mogabee

Interesting. But I find I get much better results by just crossing my fingers!

And getting out there leafleting etc. of course. 😀

Desimond

But with that £1 you could buy Kezia a Macaroni Pie as commisseration

[…] How to turn £33 into £34 very slowly […]

JBS

@Croompenstein

Maybe if Murphy were to go back to University he could get a First Class Honours degree, like a certain newly-minted SNP MP I could name.

Then again…

Craig Wilson

Yeah but ISAs aren’t fun, are they?

33/1 it is then. Sturgeon would have to personally punch 10,000 foxes square in the jaw for the SNP not to be largest party.

Les Wilson

Says it all really!

heedtracker

This calls for an “important intervention” from you know who in you know where. That’s Crash Gordon in his Kingdom of Fife manse, waiting, watching, plotting, maybe going to the golf later.

Kevin Evans

This just adds to the farce that is UK politics

Clootie

Gambling: “A format for getting nothing for something.”

Dr Jim

But But But, The NHS, Colleges, erm Stuff

Once the SNPs record in Government is scrutinised by The BBC Labour Party surely the odds in favour of the SNP will

(Definitely go even higher!!)

Mbwahahaha!!!

David

Before all the tactical voting nonsense and who should get list votes etc. under the voting system what is the most MSPs the SNP can get.

GallusEffie

Craig Wilson @1.26

THERE’S the next Chris Cairns cartoon!

Marcia

The latest polling just released show the SNP still doing well;

link to scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk

[…] Alert contributor Calum Ferguson tells us the first bookie to come out with odds for the 2016 Holyrood election is Ladbrokes. Fortune-making opportunities seem limited.  […]

Socrates MacSporran

The only bet on their which I might be attracted to is that 3/1 shot on the Tories having more seats than Labour.

Jamie

Does anyone know if Solidarity or SSP have any chance of sneaking a seat? Surely they can rustle up one? The polls don’t seem to even mention them but they are not usually that far off in recent years. Would be good to have some socialists in parliament. They could get some of the labour voters who have been left by labour but can’t bring themselves to vote SNP?

Jamie

David – in theory, if 100% of the electorate voted SNP they would get all seats. But because that is very unlikely, I think how it works is if you win all constituency seats you can not get a regional one so in theory the max you can get is 73. You can only get a regional seat in e.g Lothians if you did not win all Lothian constituencies. I think that’s right and I hoped that helped.

Brian Doonthetoon

Hi David.

Entering the polling results from Marcia’s ‘Scot Goes Pop!’ link, into the calculator at the link below, gives this result.

SNP – – -75 seats
Labour – 27
Con – – -15
Lib-Dem – 5
Green – – 7

link to scotlandvotes.com

Gerry

2/7 is the telling odds in the picture above. Ladbrokes presumably think that labour could sink even further in Scotland. Odds change with bets laid but that they have opened at this rate will make dismal reading for SL. The SNP have keen new boots on the ground whilst SL are still running barefoot scared. It is the utilisation and mobilising of these new found grass roots activists that may just seal the deal next year. And make no mistake – the future independence of our nation CAN be sealed next year.
I for one will be knocking on doors far and wide spreading the SNP message of hope, for every knock will be a step toward our freedom.

crazycat

@ Jamie

I think how it works is if you win all constituency seats you can not get a regional one so in theory the max you can get is 73.

That’s not true; each region is calculated separately, and in 2011 the SNP won all the constituencies in the North-East and had a high enough list percentage to acquire a list seat in addition.

So if there is no barrier to doing that in an individual region (how could there be? the list seats are allocated taking into account constituency results, aiming for proportionality across all the seats in the region) there cannot be a prohibition on doing so overall.

Ken500

1/33 The bookies are getting folks money for 10 months, with hardly any interest. It would be better in Premium Bonds luckier than the lottery.

Not the untrustworthy Greens, who renege on their own policies, against the majority wishes and against the public interest. The new LibDems. They often masquerade as LibDems. Save the world, they couldn’t even save themselves.

Vote SNP/SSP/Tommy Sheridan.

Andy Nimmo

I hate to say I told you so(honest) but anybody who did snap up the 10/1 about Corbyn being next Labour Leader must be feeling a bit smug.
Thanks to our own Mhairi, he is now down to 7/2 and will continue to shorten.

JLT

Those odds are absolutely shocking! There’s not one decent odd there. You’ve a better chance of going into a Casino, going to the roulette table and betting £5 on either Red or Black. At least, it’s a 50-50 shot of doubling your money.

£33 to win £1 …that’s terrible! The bookies would probably actually make more money if they at least offered slightly better odds, rather than this nonsense than they’ve conjured up.

Well …if this is the case, then barring any SNP mistakes, it seems that an SNP majority appears to be a cert!

Dal Riata

Labour majority 33/1… ROFL!

Paula Rose

Been busy talking to folk – Rock honey, ready for a spar?

Paula Rose

(if Rock appears – send him here link to wingsoverscotland.com)

Morag

David, in practical terms the answer is 81. It’s possible the SNP might get all 73 constitueucy seats, though there are several that will take a bit of doing. Then if they’re polling high enough, it’s possible to get a list seat in each region. I don’t think two list seats on top of all the constituencies in a region is feasible, practically speaking.

So, eight regional seats on top of 73 constituency seats is 81.

It’s not likely that will happen though, because SNP support in some regions lags behind the national average. The trick was pulled off in the north-east last year on 52% of the regional vote. So the party would probably have to be over 52% on the list in all the regions to hit the jackpot, and it isn’t close to that.

Derek Henry

It’s 2 very different voting systems.

General election was first past the post

Scottish election is porportional representation.

To give you a rough idea.

If the General election was PR instead of first past the post the SNP would have got just over 50% of the seats. Instead of all but 3.

ian

If you win 9 out of 9 constituency seats then your %vote on the list is divided by 10. ( to find out what their 10th seat should “cost” them). So say 55% on the list would give 5.5% to try and “buy” a list seat.

All the others start from zero constituency seats so this list % is divided by 1 as theyvtry and buy their first list seat.

So let’s say lab 20%, Tories 12%, greens 8% and all the rest split and making up the remains 5%.

So labour win the first one as they have 20% to bid for their first seat. The amount they have to carry forward to bid for their 2nd is found by dividing their 20% by two. So labour now on 10%.

Who wins second auction? Tories with 12%. They carry forward 6% tovtry and win their second seat.

Who wins 3rd seat? Labour with their current 10%. The now will try and win their 3rd seat with 20/3 = 6.7%

Who wins 4th? greens with 8%. They carry forward 4% to try and win their 2nd seat.

Who wins the 5th? labour again, this time with their 6.7%. They then carry 20/4 = 5% forward to try and win a 5th.

Who wins the 6th? The Toties do with their reduced 6%. They are then looking for their third so carry forward 22/3 = 4%.

Last list seat is then won by SNP with their 5.5% just squeezing out Labour’s 5%. So SNP with a list vote of 55% just sneak with one extra seat.

If they had only gained 49.9% laour would have gained that last seat from them. ( in this example)

If SNP gained say 60% list votes they’d win a list seat earlier, but the 11th would have had them at 60/11 = 5.4% and that would probably get them a second list, and maybe even a further one.

SNP won’t get 60% of list votes

Scott Murray

Unrelated to this, but still about betting: i asked paddy power for a price on mhairi black becoming first minister before she’s 30, thry offered 8/1 if anyone’s interested…..

Alwyn ap Huw

I hate political betting. If you’ve got 10 bob to spare don’t waster it at the bookies betting on your favoured party – give it to the party to help the campaign!


  • About

    Wings Over Scotland is a (mainly) Scottish political media digest and monitor, which also offers its own commentary. (More)

    Stats: 6,705 Posts, 1,212,428 Comments

  • Recent Posts

  • Archives

  • Categories

  • Tags

  • Recent Comments

    • gregor on The Front On The Volga: “Elon Musk: “NATO needs an overhaul.”: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1889562270385971595Feb 12, 09:55
    • gregor on The End Of The Reich: “Mike Lee @BasedMikeLee: “If the U.S. government funded Lula’s defeat of Bolsonaro, would that bother you? I’d be *livid*…” Elon…Feb 12, 09:51
    • Mark Beggan on Bricked-up windows: “And your point is caller?Feb 12, 09:41
    • Mark Beggan on Bricked-up windows: “Very true. What is the public.Feb 12, 09:36
    • Dan on The Front On The Volga: “Careful Geri, that could be construed as you not liking young people. 😉 https://wingsoverscotland.com/seeding-the-briar-patch/#comment-2950914Feb 12, 09:35
    • Geri on The Front On The Volga: “Aye. Globalists only care about ruling the world. You’ll own nothing, eat bugs & do as yer telt via yer…Feb 12, 09:34
    • Andy Anderson on Bricked-up windows: “Very droll. Sarcastic wit indeed.Feb 12, 09:23
    • Geri on The Front On The Volga: “As far as I’m aware Trump has only banned transexual women from womens sports. Call me a cynic but that’ll…Feb 12, 09:19
    • Sven on Bricked-up windows: “Although, defining “public” will always present challenges. Would, for instance, the motoring public be content with the draconian enforcement of…Feb 12, 08:41
    • Mark Beggan on The Front On The Volga: “The thinking being German Field Marshalls never surrendered. Paulus became a hero of the Soviets.Feb 12, 08:11
    • yoon scum on Bricked-up windows: “You have to face it guys Scotland is in no way ready to make the leap to being an independent…Feb 12, 08:10
    • Young Lochinvar on The Front On The Volga: “From what I’ve seen the (actual) female nurse in an open courtroom has been required to discuss extremely personal details…Feb 12, 06:56
    • Henry Wood on The Front On The Volga: “Those millionaires/billionaires, Trump and Musk do not seem to be following your “reasoning”. Thank goodness.Feb 12, 04:58
    • Henry Wood on The Front On The Volga: “Where have all the trannies gone? In my younger, more dissolute days I often visited certain bars in Amsterdam. Some…Feb 12, 04:53
    • Henry Wood on The Front On The Volga: “I read in a report of the proceedings that the employers suggested that the nurse could change in a closet…Feb 12, 04:49
    • Mark Beggan on Bricked-up windows: “Definition of policing by consent. To recognise always that the power of the police to fulfil their function and duties…Feb 12, 04:41
    • Henry Wood on The Front On The Volga: “That looks a little like a doctor in the news just now.Feb 12, 04:39
    • Henry Wood on Bricked-up windows: “That’s you telt! The Polis sez the public is no interested in any of this. So there!Feb 12, 04:17
    • twathater on Bricked-up windows: “So what they are saying is that they AGREE the information WOULD be in the public’s interest , and the…Feb 12, 03:29
    • Peter McAvoy on The Front On The Volga: “Do they include white people as undesirable?Feb 12, 02:44
    • gregor on The End Of The Reich: “Rep. Anna Paulina Luna @RepLuna: “It is my solemn duty to begin to form a new relationship between the government…Feb 12, 02:13
    • gregor on The End Of The Reich: “Elon Musk: “Treason at the FBI!”: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1889369294842036251Feb 12, 01:54
    • Geri on The End Of The Reich: “I think out of all the ashes on the political front – Neale Hanvey would be one to watch, a…Feb 12, 01:07
    • gregor on The End Of The Reich: “We The Kingdom: Don’t Tread On Me: “Oh no, you’ve done it now Gone against the King Gone against the…Feb 12, 00:14
    • gregor on The End Of The Reich: “Fake Robin McAlpine News: My top eight indy myths: “We just need a new messiah… When people get stuck or…Feb 12, 00:03
    • gregor on The End Of The Reich: “OCCRP (2021): The Pegasus Project: “They never heard it. There was no beep, no sound at all. But in those…Feb 11, 23:38
    • gregor on The End Of The Reich: “Enter The Haggis: Casualties Of Retail: Twirling Towards Freedom: https://tinyurl.com/yey8c86aFeb 11, 23:22
    • Young Lochinvar on Bricked-up windows: “Quality Polis Toshan strung it out for as long as they could. Isn’t it now propping up a desk leg…Feb 11, 22:55
    • Geri on The Front On The Volga: “Yes they’ll keep it going. It’s a satanic cult. The mega rich & greedy will still fund & push for…Feb 11, 22:55
    • Young Lochinvar on Bricked-up windows: “On the List probably yes but she’s toast now, toxic and “found out”. Nothing left but to try and pull…Feb 11, 22:50
  • A tall tale



↑ Top
127
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x