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Wings Over Scotland


The gnat’s chuff

Posted on October 27, 2013 by

As readers will know because we always go on about it, we’re not very fussed about straight Yes/No polls this far out from the vote. We want to get right under the Scottish electorate’s skin, so for our second crowd-funded poll (as with the previous one) we asked for their opinion on all sorts of other stuff too.

But the media is boring and only cares about the simple bits. Headlines first, then.

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SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?

Yes 35%
No 43%
Undecided 20%

——————————————————————————-

Just an eight-point gap, which remains unchanged if you only include people who are at least 8/10 likely to vote – the numbers in that scenario move to Y37-N45-DK17. With the white paper still unpublished and 11 months to go, the Yes side needs a mere 4% swing to close the gap completely.

But that’s just about the least interesting stat in our poll.

Let’s start with an important bit of background info. As Panelbase polls have tended to deliver more favourable results for independence, Unionists and the media have frequently cast aspersions on their reliability, and a nasty little smear recently suggested that nationalists were “infiltrating” the sample base to skew the results.

We’ll pass on the fundamentally illogical nature of that, but to counter these unsupported allegations Panelbase closed their system to new entrants until after the referendum. For this poll, though, they took another step: they separated the sample 50/50 between their own respondents and those of a completely different company.

splitbase

As you can see, there was very little difference between the two sets – the lead for the No camp was actually 9% in the Panelbase group, and 8% in the other group, with the main difference being a higher number of undecideds among the new group. So let’s have no more sour grapes from Unionists on that score.

(Yeah, we know, while we’re dreaming we’d also like a castle made of gold.)

————————————————————————————————————

NOTE: For the rest of this article and those following it, unless otherwise noted we’ll be taking our stats from the “Likely to vote” tables.

People rating themselves 8/10 or higher in that category make up 86% of the sample, which seems a very plausible estimate of the eventual turnout, so to get the most accurate picture possible we’re excluding the people who are probably going to exclude themselves from the ballot. 

————————————————————————————————————

The breakdown of Yes/No votes by party is pretty much in line with what you’d expect:

SNP 69-17 (14 DK) +52
Labour 19-56 (25 DK) -37
Lib Dem 17-55 (29 DK) -38
Conservative 1-96 (3 DK) -95

(As always, figures might not total exactly 100 due to rounding.)

TANGENT: If, just for a bit of idle non-scientific fun on the side, you apply those figures to the constituency votes in the 2011 Holyrood election, excluding the Don’t Knows (because even though they’re going to vote, we can’t just guess which way they’ll go, although stay tuned), the numbers come out like this:

Yes: 772,377 (47.3%)
No: 858,882 (52.7%)

Squeaky bum time, there. A non-trivial proportion – 19% – of those Yes votes coming from non-SNP sources makes things pretty complicated. And what happens if you throw 2011 regional votes into the mix too, which brings the Greens into play? In that scenario, with what’s probably a realistic total number of votes, the figures are:

Yes: 1,522,162 (48.8%)
No: 1,551,299 (51.2%)

Ooft. Now, as we say, that’s just for a giggle – the turnout for Holyrood 2011 was only 50%, and all sorts of other unknown factors come into play, like other smaller parties and the differences between Holyrood and Westminster voting and a single-issue referendum. It’s an intriguing extrapolation, though, we think you’ll agree.

Of course, what it really tells us is something we already knew, which is that the Don’t Knows are going to be absolutely key to the referendum outcome. But we’ve got more (much more) coming up on them in a later post, so for now let’s tidy up the Yes/No stats before we get to the other bits.

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YES/NO VOTE BY GENDER

Men: 46-42 (12 DK) +4
Women: 29-49 (22 DK) -20

————————————–

With increasing consistency, polls are now showing men in favour of independence, while women remain stubbornly opposed (but also more undecided). Here the gap is a startling 24 points. If anyone knows why, they’re keeping it close to their chests.

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YES/NO VOTE BY AGE

18-24: 28-68 (4 DK) -40*
25-34: 42-37 (22 DK) +5
35-44: 34-45 (20 DK) -11
45-54: 42-42 (17 DK) 0
55-64: 36-45 (19 DK) -9
65+: 32-53 (15 DK) -21

(*The size of the 18-24 sample was far smaller than the other groups, and therefore highly susceptible to error. But still, brrr.)

——————————–

Jings and crivvens. What on Earth happens to young Scots when they turn 25? That’s an incredible 45-point turnaround between just two adjacent age groups, and an incredible 96% of the youngest demographic appears to have made its mind up already, with vastly lower undecided figures than any other sector.

Only the oldies come anywhere close to the weans for vehement opposition to self-determination, and even then they’re miles behind, with a net rating of -21 against the youngsters’ -40. Someone’s really put the wind up Scotland’s young folk.

The gender gap, though, shrinks with age. Compressing the age groups from six to three to even out the sample sizes, twice as many 18-34 males support independence as their female peers – 51% vs 26% – but by the time you get to 55+ that difference has shrunk from 25 points to 10 points, with 40% of older males in favour of independence but only 30% of older females.

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YES/NO VOTE BY RESIDENCE TYPE

Homeowners: 31-51 (18 DK) -20
Private renters: 42-39 (20 DK) +3*
Social renters: 56-28 (16 DK) +28

(*The private-renters group was also a small sample size.)

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We’ve covered this phenomenon at some length previously. Homeowners are the people who feel they’ve most to lose from change and upheaval, even if that worry is irrational when weighed against the dangers of the status quo. Scare stories about interest rates play well with those struggling to afford their mortgage, especially if “Better Together” throws in a  wee fearbomb or two about lost jobs at the same time.

Homeowners make up roughly 65% of the Scottish population, so the Yes camp is going to have to work hard to win their confidence. But with only half of them planning a No at this stage, it’s not a hopeless task.

That’s probably enough numbers to digest in one go. Have a rest.

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  1. 01 11 13 01:15

    Surveying the Scene: Scottish poll reveals the power of indecision | dEvolving Wales

  2. 30 12 13 04:29

    Scottish Independence, 35% Yes, 43% No | An Sionnach Fionn

149 to “The gnat’s chuff”

  1. creigs17707repeal says:

    Hi Stu and all,
    This is excellent news for the YES campaign this far out from R-Day and especially so given that the Referendum Question was the first question asked in this Panelbase poll with no preamble or any ‘guidance’ questions.
     
    So–with just under a year to go a swing of just over 4% and Scotland will, once again, be able to join the world on its own terms.
    Well done WoS and all who paid to have this independent poll done.
     
    I am more confident now than ever of a YES result next year.

  2. david says:

    great stuff. beautiful sunday or wot

  3. moujick says:

    My hunch re the younger age group is that they don’t have a grasp of the issues and are only attuned to the “lets all be a big happy better together family” line.
    Time we lobbed a fearbomb or two of our own at them. Do they know the Tories want to re-introduce conscription?:-
    http://goo.gl/2kCovg

  4. Juteman says:

    The youngsters are a bit worrying. Maybe the constant ‘Britishing’ of everything by the media, has more of an effect on young minds?

  5. Seasick Dave says:

    Yes 35%No 43%Undecided 20%
     
    Where does it give these figures in the table?

  6. GP Walrus says:

    The youngest age-group are very much influenced by what Mum and Dad think – and Mum’s not convinced yet. 25+ folks have grown into independence and like the idea.

  7. Ruairidh says:

    Encouraging results. The striking thing for me is the hesitancy of youth for Independence. However, I am encouraged by the Abertay debate between Stuart Hosie and Lord George of no culture. That clearly showed that when presented with the facts vast swathes jumped ship. I think this group will be a big target two months out as I don’t think they will engage properly before this. Talking with younger siblings and asking them about the discussions in their peer groups it is clear that a lot of the current “no” voting is instinctive due to a lack of information which will only right itself when they actually get involved in the debate and seek out some answers.

    My big concern is that they do actually get out and vote, as this decision will have the most bearing on their lives out of all the generations sampled. 

    Thanks Stu for the great analysis and Happy Birthday.

  8. Donald Kerr says:

    One would have thought that the youngsters would be the least feart.

  9. Tattie-Boggle says:

     A lot of youngsters needing to be weaned of the Teat

  10. November13 says:

    Two things about the youngsters.Do not underestimate the Britishing effect of the Olympics and the Totals.I have never seen so many youngsters openly wearing Brit Olympic replica tops.Being in a running club you notice these things.The young are unfortunately easiest to influence by the media.So the fake Britannia effect is at work here.But don’t despair we have team Scotland next year in full swing at the commonwealth’s.With Saltires and replica Scotland kits we can remind these youngsters that they are Scots.Do not underestimate the feel good factor.

    The other point was the Andy Murray effect.He was claimed as a Brit and accepted he was now a Brit.This was brought about by the narrow opinionated Brit bats who couldn’t accept    someone until he had sworn allegiance to queen and country.Hence Murray didn’t wear a kilt when getting whatever he got from the queen of sax Coburn or Bavaria or whatever nation she comes from.

  11. Atypical_Scot says:

    Jings and crivvens indeed. One can accept the grumpy old man syndrome but 18-24 year old Scots don’t seem to be from the same dimension. 

  12. uilleam_beag says:

    Happy birthday, Stu, and a gazillion thanks for the poll results! There’s a lot of info to digest there, but the findings look roughly similar to my own feelings at the end of my three-month tour: much work to be done but by no means an impossible task. The key is getting people to engage in the issues, and start talking to the undecideds.
     
    Look forward to seeing the rest of the tables.
     
    [Back in HK now, and working to get the book out by the end of the year. Tick-tock.]

  13. Cankert Callan says:

    I’ll get to work on women! Bit of an unusual turn for me, all in a good cause! Love the way it’s trending, some positive news to start the week!
    Happy Birthday! 

  14. Holebender says:

    Ahh… They can’t dismiss this one, can they?
     
    2 questions; how did the Sunday Herald get the results before us, and were the results made available to all the Sundays?

  15. Danny says:

    I think of all age groups it is the youngest who most suffer the Scottish cringe. Its not cool to be Scottish. Look at all that fashion stuff with the trendy union flag on it.

  16. GP Walrus says:

    Fashion stuff with the union flag is what’s available. Where’s all the Saltire stuff outside tourist shops?

  17. November13 says:

    Regarding the young and lack of knowledge.Was there not a famous incident where a youngster on a debate didn’t know that free higher education was as a result of devolution.She thought it was a benefit of the Union.I ANY case it underlines how easily led they are by the media.Yes Scotland need to educate their mothers first though.

  18. Jimmuckmc says:

    very encouraging to get a poll which we can trust 
    it shows Alex salmond has thought it through and resisted
    the calls to bring it on it’s all to play for
    there is not a poll which shows the no vote rising

  19. david says:

    shouldnt have given the wee ba i mean lambs the vote

  20. uilleam_beag says:

    On the subject of youngsters: a 25-year-old of today would have been 11 when the parliament was reconvened and just nine at the time of the devolution referendum. Anyone over that age became politically aware during a period of intense frustration in Scotland about being governed by an undemocratic and unrepresentative Tory administration. The younger lot grew up without ever really experiencing that feeling and will have reached intellectual maturity in the early years of Tony Blair’s time in No 10 – an immensely more optimistic era (back when the majority still thought it would make a difference).
     
    That will surely have had a significant impact on their constitutional outlook.

  21. sneddon says:

    The figures on age and gender possibly point to a lack of understanding what a NO vote will mean (restricted benefits for under 25’s, more benefit cuts,NHS privatisiation) that will affect the groups most opposed to YES.  But not an impossible task to change.  As I had drummed into me at ‘librarian schoo’l “the right information, at the right time in the right place”   Roll on White Paper and the next 11 months of campaign.  Happy burfday Rev.  Off for a cream tea?

  22. Murray McCallum says:

    The 18-24 age group don’t seem to have factored in the fears and uncertainties of a status quo “No” vote – £9,000 pa OneNation tuition fees.
     
    While I am a bit wary of loading too many expectations on the White Paper (it is going to be hit with a blitzkrieg of negativity by bitter together), I do hope it addresses the detail of monetary policy and financial services regulation / insurance. I would think homeowners would get some reassurance from that.

  23. November13 says:

    Yes the fashion union jacks seem to be everywhere from cushions to bags to t shirts.I despair when I see the amount of youngsters who just seem to switch allegiance at the drop of a till register.The one that gets me in my office is the Union Jack mugs.It’s phoney Britannia aka the Spice girls and Tony Blair.

  24. ScottyC1314 says:

    Encouraging and slightly worrying at same time. if media pick up on this poll then look out for the headlines focusing on the youngest vote. Why the difference? Sadly, this is where project fear is most effective as the less experienced are more likely to just accept what they are being told. A lot of work to be done here with our popular culture YES faces having a big role to play.

  25. Andrew Morton says:

    @Donald Kerr
    My first vote when I was 18 in 1970 was for the sitting Conservative MP. And I grew up in a  corporation scheme! I recall that when I was young I tended to believe that what I read on the newspapers and saw on TV was the literal truth. During the 1974 election I was making a point to someone and she disputed it. My reply was, “I read it in a newspaper, so it must be true!” As I said the words I suddenly realised how stupid they were. That was probably when my eyes were really opened although I was an SNP supporter by then.

  26. GP Walrus says:

    Yes but fashion is shallow and changes with the wind. Those of them who actually vote will have thought about it. The more they think the more likely they are to vote yes.

  27. JLT says:

    Hi Stu. Happy birthday once more. Go and have a rest now, and have a beer!
     
    I’ve been in Spain this last week, and had no access to Internet (away up in the mountains!). So, when I got home, it was a mad scramble trying to find out what’s happened in the last 8 days! The only thing we were getting was BBC News on TV about Grangemouth.
     
    As you kind of hit above, Stuart, For the next round of stats, the next stage has to be the publication of the White Paper.

    I just hope the Yes campaign have not turned it into a Lawyers Dream (as in, it is in small writing, massive paragraphs of legal jargon, technical terminology, no graphs, etc) because if it is, I think a lot of folk will just toss it into the pile of other paper junk that sits in the kitchen, and then plain forget about it. Believe me, in our house, we have an EU mountain of paper in our kitchen. It sits in one giant pile; school stuff, bills, food menus, shopping coupons, etc. I can see the White Paper being chucked to one side for ‘I’ll look at it later when I have the time’, and then it is never seen again, until around 2016 when the paper mountain is finally tackled.
     
    4% isn’t a lot. Looking at this, I would say that the ‘Yes’ percentages have remained stuck on the 35% (to be honest, I expected it to be higher. Around 40%). However, what we can see, is that the ‘No’ vote is leaking slowly, and those votes are now in the ‘Don’t Knows’.
     
    If the ‘Yes’ campaign get a good White Paper out next month, that is very easy to read and highly informative without being too technical, and if the campaign goes well next summer, then yes …I think it can be won with a victory at about 55% to 60%.

  28. Only Fear Holds Us Back says:

    The “Britishifying” of everything is a definite factor on the youth results, the prevalence of the union flag on items of clothing and as a signature of a “cool” design is bound to be causing this. The fact that this age group will have no memory or have felt any of the effects of the miner’s strike or poll tax will also be a factor, they have had it relatively good compared to older generations, even the recession is seen as the fault of the bankers rather than a combination of lax market control from Neo-Liberal Westminster governments.

  29. Atypical_Scot says:

    perhaps the best way to inform the under 25’s is to use this age breakdown, pointing out that they are more like grumpy old men than their parents.

  30. david says:

    i believe on the day of the vote plenty of no voters will be swayed to yes simply by the question.

  31. JLT says:

    I wouldn’t worry too much about the youngest age group. As I said a couple of months ago, I now car share with a young 20 year old lass in my section. Since it takes an hour to get to work (Livi to Portobello), we have plenty of time to blether. Of course …being me …I usually bore the ears of the poor lass with politics.

    However, not that long ago, she had a wee house gathering (when her parents were away on holiday), and she had around 6 of her pals. The topic of Independence came up. Apart from her, the rest were all pro-Union.
    Well …(brings tears to my eyes …sniffle) …it seems that my wee pal had been listening! She battered into them with stats, and when they doubted her; out came the smartphones, and the powering up of the PC. Once they confirmed the facts on-line, only one of them refused to be converted. My wee pal had turned 5 of her pals just like that. They were shocked that the real facts were not being told, and as my wee pal told them, the media are all pro-union.
     
    Give them the facts, and tell them to look on-line. As November13 says above, they are being influenced by TV media. Once it comes down to hearing it from mouth-to-mouth, and (hopefully) a good year for Scotland on the sports and historical front, then I expect vast conversions!

  32. scaredy cat says:

    I think, based on previous comments by my two kids (both early 20s) that young people have been lulled into a false sense of security by the success of the Scottish Parliament. In many cases they don’t know what is devolved and what is reserved, nor are they interested to find out. A combination of apathy and I’m-alright-jack-ness. 
    One of my kids has been totally converted by hearing the facts (it didn’t take long). The other still claims not to care about what happens but will vote yes anyway (perhaps to shut me up). More likely not wanting to admit that I am right! 

  33. uilleam_beag says:

    @JLT
     
    Aye, approx. 55%~60% yes is my expectation for the final vote. That is assuming the campaign manages to engage effectively with the non-fussed, who seemed to me to remain the majority (despite signs of growing interest as summer came to a close).
     
    I finally got around the other night to watching No, the film about the Chilean referendum campaign that ended Pinochet’s dictatorship. I thoroughly recommend everyone involved in Yes Scotland to watch it, as there is much to learn about their creative methods in enthusing a jaded electorate that saw the vote as a waste of time, at best, and at worst as legitimising the military junta.

  34. Vronsky says:

    If the outcome rests with the DKs, it matters what proportion of them are likely/certain to vote – I fear it may be small.  Any data, Rev? 

    Regarding the kids, one 24 year old told me that politics had ‘nothing to do with his life’.  Typical view, which  rather calls into doubt the SG decision to extend the franchise to 16 year olds.  Although I suppose if you think of politics as being about Liberal, Labour and Tory then indeed there isn’t much interest in choosing between tweedledee, tweedledee, and tweedledee.

  35. Roland Smith says:

    As a grumpy old man of 61 who has equally old grumpy men friends who are all voting Yes we obviously need to do some serious work with the grumpy old women and the grandchildren.

    The age demographic in favour needs loads more publicity and a question has to be raised in the minds of we older fag ends of the empire as to how fair it is for us to deny them the opportunity of self determination.

  36. HandandShrimp says:

    I think the youngsters have been brought up with the global village, we are all one world ethos. The Better Together side are portraying independence as retreating into a shell, anti the rest of the world. The challenge for the Yes side is to demonstrate to the young that it is Westminster that is fast becoming xenophobic and wanting to shut the world out and quite possibly leave the EU too. An independent Scotland would actually be more open and connected to the world.
     
    Pleased to see that our poll confirms the trend for the No vote to weaken, with a small ut solid strengthening of Yes with the Don’t Knows a considerable pot to tap into. I think come the day a lot of the Don’t Knows will not vote. However, if we can convince just a quarter of them to vote Yes and continue to chip away the No vote then we will pass the finish line. More than that will be a bonus…but a welcome bonus obviously. If it is 51% 49% win we will get all sorts of grief from the Chairchoob and others; the flakier demanding martial law and internment of nationalists 🙂

  37. Ruairidh says:

    @JLT  “If the ‘Yes’ campaign get a good White Paper out next month, that is very easy to read and highly informative without being too technical, and if the campaign goes well next summer, then yes …I think it can be won with a victory at about 55% to 60%.”
     
    My  hunch has always been a 60/40 YES. I agree with what you say about the white paper too. If it is full of Jargon it will line kitty litters across the country. If it is a “thick” document then they need to produce a digestible  “white paper light” that pulls out the key themes, arguments and most importantly FACTS across 10-15 glossy pages.

  38. JLT says:

    Scottish independence: Firms urged to speak out

    Ms Curran called on business groups not to be intimidated amid concerns that the sector has remained silent throughout the debate. Picture: PA
    ————-
    My God!!!! Just reading up on the publication of the White Paper, and this was the best photo of Margaret Curran that the Scotsman could come up with yesterday. Bloody hell …Does the Scotsman want to scare us into ‘Yes’?

  39. Edward says:

    Can I nit pick? Should Scotland be an Independent Country?
    Yes 35%
    No 43%
    Undecided 20%
    35+43+20 = 98, so what happened to the 2% ?

  40. JLT says:

    Damn …didn’t work! Tried to upload a photo. Here the link, and you’ll get my drift!
     
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-firms-urged-to-speak-out-1-3159200

  41. mr thms says:

    Re women who say they will vote No, Could most of them be single parents?
    If they are in work, they may fear for their jobs, losing tax credits, child benefits, flexible hours, child care, etc

  42. Linda's Back says:

    Great stuff and emphasises that on the doorstep “IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID” 

    Right on cue when the clocks go back Bleak Midwinter returns with Labour’s “Cuts Commission” on the economy which says that the Council Tax Freeze should end but only published after the Dunfermline By Election is over.

    Midwinter also spills the beans on Labour’s plans to cut the popular “freebies”
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/billion-pounds-cash-to-fight-poverty-disappears-1-3159791

    But when you actually read the story.  He adds that a Scottish Government decision to hand local authorities control of a billion pounds worth of anti-poverty measures was done in a way that failed to ringfence this spending for its intended purpose. Councils were therefore free to use it as they wished, and as a result it had “disappeared”.
     
    What tosh and this of course included many Labour councils.

  43. Linda's Back says:

    Great praise for Alex Salmond’s handling of the Grangemouth dispute in the Sunday Herald.
    Where is the “leader” of “Scottish” Labour in all this?   To save you buying the Sunday Times:

    Sunday Times reveals ED MILIBAND is facing a crisis this weekend as a cache of bombshell emails exposes a concerted union plot involving threats, intimidation and dirty tricks to thwart his inquiry into alleged electoral corruption.

    More than 1,000 emails reveal how Unite chiefs subverted an inquiry ordered by the Labour leader into allegations that the union had rigged votes in Falkirk to get its nominee selected as the party’s parliamentary candidate.

    The dossier of emails was passed to police last week. It reveals how Unite chiefs:
    ? Told the union’s PR team to dig out “nasty stuff” on key Labour party figures
    ? Wrote witnesses’ testimony withdrawing key evidence of alleged wrongdoing, with the new statements approved by the official implicated in the scandal
    ? Tracked Labour investigators as they interviewed witnesses in Falkirk and boasted how one witness had told them to “F*** off”
    ? Planned to use senior union and Labour figures to intimidate and disrupt Miliband’s investigation team.

    In one email, a key figure in the affair told colleagues they needed to avoid giving the impression that they were behaving like “some hotbed of union ballot riggers”.

    This weekend Miliband is facing pressure to reopen the inquiry, which he was forced to drop last month after all the allegations of vote-rigging were withdrawn.

    It will refocus the spotlight on how far the Labour leader can rein in the party’s union paymasters, who are fighting his attempts to loosen their financial links.

    Peter Watt, former general secretary of the Labour party, said: “Understandably, the initial inquiry was pulled because of lack of evidence. If new information has surfaced that puts a question mark over that lack of evidence the party should consider reopening its inquiry.”

    At the centre of the scandal is Stevie Deans, the constituency party chairman in Falkirk, whose emails reveal the scale of the plot. Deans is also Unite boss at the huge Grangemouth oil refinery, which was brought to the brink of closure last week. It was only after the union caved in that the plant, and its staff, were saved.

    The emails were uncovered by lawyers brought in by executives at Ineos, the owners of the Grangemouth complex.

    The company, which is owned by the billionaire Jim Ratcliffe, suspected Deans was devoting much of his work time to Labour party business rather than representing the workforce.

    The 1,000 emails in the leaked Falkirk files show that a letter to be sent to Iain McNicol, Labour’s general secretary, and key statements retracting the vote-rigging claims were not written by the four witnesses, members of a local family called the Kanes.
    Instead, the emails show the witnesses’ testimony was drawn up by Unite and sent to Deans — who was heavily implicated in the alleged vote-rigging — for his “approval”.

    The move was part of a desperate bid by Unite to save the careers of Deans and Karie Murphy,  who is Len McCluskey’s girl friend , the Unite candidate he was trying to parachute into the Scottish constituency.

    In an emergency strategy email of July 30, Howard Beckett, a Unite executive, said Deans would be given the job of arranging for the testimony, which he had approved, to be signed by four members of the Kane family.

    The four were among new recruits to the Falkirk Labour party and had been the source of the original claims that some had been signed up without their knowledge.

    In a separate email sent on the same day, Deans said he was “happy” with the draft retraction drawn up by Unite “and can get this to the Kane family and get it posted tonight”.

    The emails lay bare a concerted strategy by the union to infiltrate the local party with Unite supporters. By doing so, they hoped to ensure that the union’s candidate, Murphy, who was office manager to Tom Watson, the then Labour deputy chairman, was selected.

    The 1,000 emails were presented to Deans by  senior Ineos managers at Grangemouth at a disciplinary hearing last Thursday. He was told at the meeting that the company wanted to sack him.

    The emails appear to show conclusively that Deans broke company rules on moonlighting, but they are more significant because of the insight they provide into how Deans, Murphy and other Unite figures reacted to what Deans described in one email as the vote-rigging “s*** storm”.

    Ineos says its inquiry found Deans had spent 25%  of his work time The move was part of a desperate bid by Unite to save the careers of Deans and Karie Murphy, the Unite candidate he was trying to parachute into the Scottish constituency.

    “The company has presented Mr Deans with the findings of its inquiry into the alleged inappropriate use of company resources and systems,” Ineos said yesterday. “It will make a further announcement on Tuesday.”

    Police in Scotland confirmed they had been handed a file by the company on Friday. A spokeswoman said: “Police Scotland can confirm that a person attended at Falkirk police station on Friday with some information which is being looked into.” It is understood officers have requested the company make an official complaint.

  44. thejourneyman says:

    Seasick Dave says:
    27 October, 2013 at 8:16 am

    Yes 35%No 43%Undecided 20%
     
    Where does it give these figures in the table?

    The figures being focused in on are those most likely to vote 8-10 on a scale of how likely. Stu said in the the introductory that he would use those for the rest of his analysis. The %ages you’ve quoted are for everyone covered in the survey.
    At least I think this is the answer you are looking for, hope it helps.

  45. Atypical_Scot says:

    Obviously, unlike most homeowners I don’t care that by achieving independence, my house will implode on me, growing spikes emanating from the ceiling whilst filling with liquid acid. In fact, it’s been crying out to be redecorated for a while now. 

  46. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Can I nit pick? Should Scotland be an Independent Country?
    Yes 35%
    No 43%
    Undecided 20%
    35+43+20 = 98, so what happened to the 2% ?”

    Those figures come from the “raw” data, not the “likely to vote” ones that I’ve used everywhere else. 1% said they wouldn’t vote, and the other 1% is a rounding issue.

  47. Linda's Back says:

    Apologies for going off on tangent about Unite in Grangemouth .  Have no time for Ineos but Unite’s Labour’s involvement was disastrous for the workforce.

    From Sunday Times article:
    Ineos says its inquiry found Deans had spent 25%  of his work time organising Labour matters — including the infiltration of his own constituency party by Unite. The company said it paid him to work as a union convenor representing members at Grangemouth.

  48. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “If the outcome rests with the DKs, it matters what proportion of them are likely/certain to vote – I fear it may be small. Any data, Rev? “

    The vast majority (75-80%) say they’re likely to vote.

  49. scottish_skier says:

    Nice.
     
    Perfectly in line with trends. No so peaked in late 2012. That’s been the biggest feature; the loss from No. As noted previously, gap was over 20 points, now at best 10 points.

  50. Atypical_Scot says:

    I think this may constitute addiction Rev.

  51. HandandShrimp says:

    Obviously, unlike most homeowners I don’t care that by achieving independence, my house will implode on me, growing spikes emanating from the ceiling whilst filling with liquid acid. In fact, it’s been crying out to be redecorated for a while now.
     
    LOL – There used to be a chap on Free Scotland Facebook that kept going on about us losing our houses. I could never understand how we would suddenly become so careless. That or a mental image of all 5 million of us standing in the streets looking at our houses because we weren’t allowed to live in them, the banks repossessing them to sell them to……

  52. creature says:

    I’m convinced the extraordinary large number of young and female NO voters can be explained by the demographics of viewers of X-Factor, Britain’s got…., Great British **** Off, and the continuing love-in with the Royals. If they are persuaded that they won’t “lose” all that guff then these youngsters will vote Yes too. To a lesser extent the same may apply to older female voters, and young males. A question for the next poll perhaps – do you watch trash-Brit TV?

  53. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “I think this may constitute addiction Rev.”

    I’ll be out in the sunshine shortly. This is just the equivalent of going round making sure you’ve got everything switched off before you go on holiday…

  54. Tearlach says:

    Ken Mc is discussing the Rev’s poll just now live on GMS.

  55. X_Sticks says:

    Ken MacDonald has just mentioned the Wings poll on his Headlines program.
     
    He also gives a mention to Mike Small at Bella Caledonia. How refreshing to hear some fairness in coverage from bbc northern branch.

  56. Gav Bain says:

    OK, data digested. Next please.

  57. HandandShrimp says:

    The great lie is that the overwhelming majority of Scots reject independence. The polls have shown for a wee while that the No vote is sub 50% and the 43% to 45% is very much in line with recent trends. I imagine Prof Curtice will be blogging these poll results because although it is rather basic fair it is what he is trending and coming from Panel Base he will be able to slot them into his charts easily. Wonder if Headlines will pickup on this. Meant to listen to that this morning.

  58. HandandShrimp says:

    Bum! I should have listened.

  59. iain taylor (not that one) says:

    Just one informed & reasoned comment on the Mags Curran story – has she ever auditioned for horror movies? No make up required…

  60. scottish_skier says:

    For the 18-24 group…
     
    People should stop worrying. This group has the most volatile figures, with large swings from poll to poll. They are also one of the groups least likely to vote / be engaged. The sample is also small here so big error possibility.
     
    Much more importantly is getting the female vote to back Yes. Project fear is aimed at scaring/bullying the female electorate into voting No.
     
    The main thing to take is that the gap is closing with No now very much on the back foot.

  61. Ken500 says:

    The young are a smaller % of the electorate and traditionally less likely to vote. There still time to convince the female vote. ( ie likely to take less risk – psychologically – carers). Buy your wife a new handbag.

    ‘The YES voters just need to convince one other’. Margo.

    It is ironic that the wife beater was not prosecuted or convicted, despite complaints being made,under Unionist governance. One reason why under non disclosure, the person accepted as a SNP candidate. When the historical accusations resurfaced, the SNP took the relevant action, but this was used to make false accusation against the SNP.

    The Unite Union activist allegedly acting illegally, led to the shut down at Grangemouth. Yet again this was used against the SNP to influence through mistruths, illegal activity and propaganda the electorate in Grangemouth to elect another unreliable Labour/Unionist.

    The Referendum YES will achieve right against might, and come back to haunt them. Karma
    The Referendum YES majority will depend on the turnout.

  62. Atypical_Scot says:

    “This is just the equivalent of going round making sure you’ve got everything switched off before you go on holiday…”
     
    Sorry, not addiction. OCD? 🙂

  63. CR says:

    Those figures really surprise me.  My son is twenty, he’s been a yes for more than two years and has converted loads of his friends.  My daughter is twenty-two, she’s a yes too (persuaded by her brother). Most of their friends in the same age bracket are also yes voters.  My daughter has not long finished uni and my son is still there and they are both very aware about politics and the history of their country.
     
    I’m a grumpy older woman who is definitely voting yes. I’m an artist and all of my Scot’s based artist friends are voting yes (and are confident enough to share material from Bella Caledonia etc on FB and other social media sites).  My husband is undecided and is waiting for the white paper, though he is leaning toward yes. 
     
    Last time I was asked my opinion I told them (it was the Comry poll) that I didn’t know, this was because at that time, though I was leaning towards yes I didn’t feel I could articulate why I would be doing so.  I do now. 
     
    There also isn’t a sample of the 16-18 age bracket, though we might assume that they would vote in the same way as the 18-24 group?
     
    I agree with previous commenters that the younger bracket may well vote in the same way as their parents, but there is still a lot of time for change.  The younger group are also the ones who are most comfortable on social media, Tumblr being a particular favourite.  Perhaps Wings and Bella should open a Tumblr account?
     
     

  64. Famous15 says:

    Being discussed on Radio Scotland now. Wings  and Bella get bigged up .The poll is being followed and dissected.

  65. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “2 questions; how did the Sunday Herald get the results before us, and were the results made available to all the Sundays?”

    I gave the Herald exclusive early sight of the tables, because they asked a while ago, and I was curious to see if someone having an exclusive would make it more worth their while to cover it. Professor Curtice also has them. Nobody else yet. They’ll be available to all from tomorrow.

  66. bunter says:

    GMS going huge on the Wings poll and Kevin McKenna very complimentary on this site and also Bella. He says these sites are the way things are going to go, are holding people like him to account,  are a welcome development and described the quality of  writings within as at least ”serviceable”  lol….

  67. Ken500 says:

    Sorry for that second post

    Kremlins

    The Business Community/sector will never ‘speak out’ Unlike Labour/Unionists they can read a balance sheet.

    Labour/Unionists have never read the McCrone Report, maybe because Labour/Unionists kept it secret for 30 years, and then deny any responsibility.

    Labour/Unionist cry ‘It wisnae me’. Tory cry ‘It wisnae Moi’ LibDems just cry or they wil.

  68. Brian Powell says:

    On the stats on women being against Independence it would be fair to say, though women complain a lot, they are in fact the most happy with the present situation.
     
    Westminster Government planners will find this useful when forming policies.

  69. kininvie says:

    Re the old folk:
    Time and again on the doorstep, the pensions issue emerges as the reason for a no vote. A lot of older people just don’t believe their pensions can continue to be paid as they are now, and, frankly they aren’t much interested in the stats which prove otherwise. AS & Yes campaigns need to be louder in issuing guarantees (another ‘rocks melt i’ the sun’ moment?) and do so more frequently.
     
    Another common reason is that a lot of ex-forces people have a strong, sentimental loyalty to the British forces with which they served and don’t want to see them broken up. I’m not sure there’s much that will persuade them.

  70. bunter says:

    Oh and Lamonts on Politics show today with Gary Robertson discussing Grangemouth and her by election win. Hopefully some decent questioning this time….

  71. Old mikey says:

    Wings over Scotland and it’s crowd funded poll just been discussed on BBC radio Scotland at 10.45. I can’t do the ‘I player’ thing but maybe one of you’re commenters can do so if that’s possible.

  72. FreddieThreepwood says:

    Re the reluctance of younger voters, I am greatly concerned by stories I have heard coming out of schools – particularly those run by Labour-dominated local authorities. I well remember from my early teens how much peer pressure and fear of teacher scorn could influence one’s decision making. In my case (OK maybe I was an particularly spineless youngster) it stretched to which subjects to take and even which university to go to. 

    Now I have heard that independence is the subject of hundreds of classroom debates across the country – many controlled by teachers who make no pretence at neutrality and, in at least one instance, orchestrated an ugly witch hunt against the one brave soul who put his hand up to show support for a Yes vote. 

    What rules are being broken by this I have no idea but it is surely something the Scottish Government should be addressing. I don’t believe classrooms should become ‘market places’ where the competing Yes and No campaigns get to slog it out while throwing pens, balloons and God knows what else at the kids. But nor should they just be left for unprofessional teachers to bully into reflecting their own political prejudices.

  73. Ken500 says:

    At one Academy debate. The NO TV argument was repeated by a Teacher, much to some people’s surprise.

    All TV channels can be seen worldwide. In Spain there is all BBC, Sky etc. Stations. The BBC and other TV companies commission or produce Programmes which are sold worldwide. The BBC makes a lot of revenue from DVD ‘s and programmes sold worldwide. STV just buy in and show X-Factor, Coronation Street etc.

    A Scottish Broadcasting/Media company could do the same.

  74. Ken500 says:

    Kevin is a very confused commentator.

  75. sneddon says:

    Brian – oh dear, they’ll be letters 🙂

  76. Ken500 says:

    Teachers are often card carrying Labour/Unionist.

  77. I agree with most other commentators above on the issue of the young people.
     
    I think we need to spend more time analysing this age group in particular, because they could be key to winning the referendum, and they don’t seem to have been convinced by the campaign so far.
     
    Most stuff that has been written about that generation (often called Generation Y, the Millennials or The Jilted Generation) sees them from a UK or American perspective (I’ve collected some quotes <a href=”http://blog.widmann.org.uk/2013/09/16/7258/”>here</a>), and it would be useful to get some more information about the Scottish youngsters’ attitudes and their perspective on life.
     
    The good thing about them is that they live their lives on social media, so once some of them get engaged, the Yes message can spread like wildfire — very unlike the 65+ voters who tend to get all their information from the mainstream media.

  78. a supporter says:

    Worry not about the 18 to 24 age group.
    1. Doesn’t know ass from elbow;  2. Easily swayed by latest fad. eg London Olympics. Next year if YES plays it correctly Scotland will be ‘in’;  3. Goes with flow and mammy is agin at moment;  4. Easily swayed by good arguments. Don’t know truth about Scottish politics;  5. Hates mam and dad. If they support Indy youth agin;  6. Teachers may be agin Indy and influencing them. Needs to be investigated;  7. Will be told at school more opportunities in wider UK. If you were their age you would probably believe that too.
     They’ll come round in the end.

  79. Webcraft says:

    Someone mentioned the post- Olympics  ‘Cool Britannia ‘ effect as being partly responsible for the current 18-24 position.

    Are there no currently popular Scottish bands/ artists prepared top speak out to their audience? Perhaps National Collective has a role to play here.

  80. Les Wilson says:

    It is obvious that we need to target different groups with hard hitting posters and flyers. We need to campaign more closer to these groups. We also need to pull no punches in what we say, gloves off so to speak.

    Young people need to be told in no uncertain way, exactly what Westminster is doing to them with their propaganda machine. Designed to MAKE them vote no by manipulation and lies. 

    Copy for Older People, Women, Home owners, Business owners, etc. Printed materials need to target each group including the non voting group that is particularly targeted with material designed for them.

    The overlying message should be. WESTMINSTER IS TELLING YOU HOW TO VOTE, ARE YOU NOT ANGRY ABOUT THAT? THEN TELL THEM, BY VOTING YES !

  81. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “just been discussed on BBC radio Scotland at 10.45”

    Someone didn’t put their clocks back…

  82. Edward says:

    Thanks Stuart for explanation of my ‘nit pick’ – had a feeling it was what you said
    Presume your in the Bath bunker, hunkering down with helmet on, awaiting the much trailed storm. Fully stocked up with a weeks supply of birthday cake 😉

  83. Ken500 says:

    Mortgage rates etc depend on ability to pay back and a stable economy. balancing the books etc. Scotland does that more successfully than the rest of the UK, even without having full fiscal economy. With a surplus or an Oil Fund, worldwide Banks will lend to Scotland nae bother.

  84. Chris says:

    With regard to the 18-24 year olds favouring independence, I think in may be for the following reasons:

    the ‘cool britannia’ feel good factor following the Olympics (as some posters have already stated);
    the fact that they have only had 3 years of Conservative /Lib dem government in the UK (instead of 18 years of Tory rule). Who are at present trying desperately to show the advantages of the UK in the run up to the referendum;
    and, ironically, the success of the Scottish Government (as opposed to the previous Scottish Executive) in making the most of the limited powers that the Scottish parliament has at present.

    That being said, I do not think that the referendum will be lost on the 18-24 age group, but rather, if the yes campaign fails to win over the female vote. The name of the no campaign was very well chosen and may appeal more to female voters. I think the yes campaign needs to demonstrate that independence is not separation and how the nations of the islands of Britain and Ireland (and Europe) will work together for their mutual benefit after Scottish Independence but that this will be by co-operation not by the diktat of one government.

  85. Ken500 says:

    Olympics Hit, the Commonwealth Games are coming. Some folk are getting very excited. Tickets sold out, very fairly.

    Not a Hotel space/accommodation, to be had in the Vicinity of Glasgow. Block booked. Reports one Hotel chain is converting another Block for extra accommodation,

  86. Ian Brotherhood says:

    Bear in mind that the youngest age bracket contains those who’ve had the least opportunity to ‘self-educate’ – they’ve been stuck in the education system since they were toddlers and simply haven’t had much time to develop their own critical thinking.
     
    There was a good piece on yesterday’s GMS, just after 9.30, and the man (Rick Instrah?) was on about schoolchildren being taught media studies as part of a broader focus on ‘literacy’ i.e. they should be taught how to critically analyse what they’re being told via MSM because it’s chock-a-block with propaganda and bias. And he said it as plainly as that. Will try to find…

  87. Dcanmore says:

    Young people are impressionable, they can change their minds on any subject every five minutes. If anyone knows a young person(s) and want them to be informed the great place to nudge them towards is the National Collective. Full of trendy creatives from music to art, urban culture and social media that appeals and speak to the younger demographic.
     
    What on Earth happens to young Scots when they turn 25?
    They leave university and become independent in the world 🙂
     
    Also if you know people who are in business drop them a leaflet about Business for Scotland, again a language and a case for independence that will speak to them. The YES campaign (includes us all) needs hone and shape the argument to fit the individual, and of course this includes women and they need for them to engage with Women for Independence. There are avenues for everyone to go and seek answers that is the beauty of the YES campaign, it’s all inclusive, people just need to be directed to the group that will appeal to them. Perhaps we need a Pensioners for Independence too, that will provide info on tax and pensions.

    I know the main YES website and publications has all the answers but certain people are put off because they still see it as too political. So break down the demographics and start funnelling people towards groups that they can engage with, that way they will see the bigger picture in bite size chucks through people of their own demographic and they will vote YES on 18th September 2014.

    Personally I am convinced that if YES creeps up to 40% by March/April with six months to go, then independence is won.

  88. Les Wilson says:

    O/T Ref Grangemouth, I posted from the outset just what Unite’s mission here was, to protect their official they tried to bully the company with strikes, without a thought of what the implications might be if the company did not buckle.

    They raised the banner, convinced the workers that their case was just, the fact remains, the could have sacrificed their jobs, while Unite Officials would of course not lose their jobs. The manipulated the workforce to their own ends and I hope the workers who could so easily have lost their jobs, will recognise that.

    Unite had to back down, they had no choice but even with that they are trying to get out out of this with some sort of credibility, when they have none.

    They are a disgrace, as are the labour party who encouraged them, I hope the workers will see what has happened here and just how “Unite ” and labour, could have sacrificed their livelihoods for their not so secret agenda.
     
    I have worked at Grangemouth , I fully understand what their jobs mean to them and the many others who could and would have been effected, for this reason I personally condemn both Unite and their oh so close buddies, the labour party, I utterly in tune with the workers who can now sleep at night again despite the difference in conditions. It is not the workers who got egg on their chin, it was those who started this with their own agenda.

  89. Ken500 says:

    @ Linda’s Back 9.14am

    If criminal proceeding do not come out of the Grangemouth scandal, it is a disgrace.

    The Dunfermline Election should be declared null and void. A new election should be called because of the Labour/Unionist corruption and illegal behaviour. Resulting in another unreliable Labour/Unionist being elected.

  90. Bobby Mckail says:

    On the 18-24 year olds, is it just a coincidence that’s favourite age range of better together facebook page and has been for the last year?

  91. Ken500 says:

    Labour/Union History is littered with the Leadership betrayal of working people. The collusion with management, from which they had most to gain. Just go to the Library (if there is one still open) and check out a reputable book on Industrial relations and Union history. None come out well.

    Many good social, employment Laws, now come from the EU, better than the UK.

  92. Peter says:

    Well, I’m a homeowner, and whilst nothing is certain in this life but death and taxes I am quite happy to take the risk that the wealth, and health, of the nation will be improved by independence and if it costs me a bit more… meh.  I fully believe continued Union will cost me more as well, so what’s the difference there? 

    If I have to pay tax I would rather see it going to improving our nation than into the pockets of banks and assorted spivs who have friends in the UK Government.
     
    Interesting reading. What it says to me is that it’s not in the bag yet, and that’s not really a surprise, but that it’s creeping closer and with still most of a year to go it is far from the certain no that our unionist ‘friends’ would have us all believe. 

    And remember; Osbourne has said cuts will land on the Scottish block grant in fiscal year 2014/15. That won’t hurt the yes vote. And of course, the White Paper is coming out next month… and I think that’ll answer many, many questions. I hope. The unionists in the media will attempt to trash it anyway, but if it’s watertight it should be a real asset.
     

  93. Ken500 says:

    The Grangemouth workers are comparatively well remunerated. The problems at the Plant – one half – was the prolonged recession affecting world markets.

    The Scottish gov had already, two months ago?, committed to a five year plan investing in the area, to create jobs etc.

  94. bilco says:

    With reference to the comments about the fashion of wearing union flags on t-shirts, etc – I’m not convinced that really will affect too many young voters.
    I think they may be simply seeing them as a fashion accessory.  I’ve been working in various countries around Europe recently – and union flags are everywhere on clothing and fashion accessories – I think it’s just the latest fashion craze Europe-wide, which will probably be superseded by something else in due course.

  95. Jeannie says:

    Happy Birthday, Stu.

  96. Juteman says:

    Re the young vote.
    Most young folk want to be cool, and fit in with their peers.
    I can remember the Pistols swearing on TV, and how great we thought that was at the time.
    Maybe the Yes sites are too polite and remind them, of polite society. They have grown up with the SNP in government. It is natural to rebel against the government.
     All the bile, swearing and hatred on the No websites somehow seems more cool, exciting and radical?
    Strange and twisted logic I know, but being ‘anti’ is natural to the young.
     
    Maybe more effort is needed to educate young folk that this isn’t about the SNP?

  97. Ken500 says:

    The Professor fails to point out the cuts to the Scottish Block Grant of £1.3Billion a year, since 2010 Election and the 11% rise (£2Billion) put on the Scottish Oil sector. Or the continued requirement under Westminister governance (Scotland out voted 10 to 1)to repay (at £4Billion a year) £10Billions of debt for illegal war and London fraudulent Banking sector, which Scotland didn’t borrow or spend. Trident, redundant weaponry and tax evasion fraud through the City of London, Energy and fuel, which Scotland pays disproportionately.

    The Energy ‘crisis’ and higher bills are a result of Westminster’s inability to invest in (renewable) energy and fuel programmes for the last 50 years. Preferring to sell off the family silver, War and Banking/tax fraud.

  98. Ken500 says:

    Tartan is wore and sold worldwide, big on fashion and accessories, it’s even on Nike trainers.

  99. Ken500 says:

    1979 win – what might have been.

  100. Ken500 says:

    The Professor forgot to mention the Westminster’s government recent tax cuts, benefitting the wealthier the most. Progressive taxes?

  101. Ian Brotherhood says:

    Haven’t yet seen the Herald’s take on what really happened at Grangemouth, but here’s a detailed analysis from Richie Venton, if anyone wants to compare/contrast:
     
    http://richieventon.blogspot.co.uk/

  102. Paula Rose says:

    @ Juteman – I think you have a valid point, perverse indeed.

  103. art1001 says:

    My experience is that its pretty easy to turn a NO to a don’t know or YES. Simply as the question : ‘If we vote NO what do you think will happen? Do you think things will stay the same’?
     
    They usually answer in the affirmative but you usually immediately notice from their eyes they have never really thought about it. The rest is easy. Just say – well Scotland will be defenceless and London will impose full austerity, student tuition fees, privatise Scottish Water so your bills go up etc, etc. Job done. Candy from a baby.

  104. Macart says:

    Ohhhh big smiley thingy. 🙂
     
    If they’re not worried, they should be.

  105. Dave McEwan Hill says:

    Slightly O/T
    The eerie silence in much of the press about the Dunfermline result is very puzzling indeed. Even the Sunday Mail virtually ignores it. Is there something we don’t know about?
     On the main topic I can feel a slight hardening in the NO vote – influenced mainly by the feeling among the ill informed that NO is the likely result. This type of unsophisticated and unconfident person always gravitates towards the winning side as they see it. When in doubt they become inert.

  106. Faltdubh says:

    Interesting reading.
     
    Haven’t made much headway in the last months, but still sitting within a decent and gain able swing.  I think the more the nation engages in 2014, we’ll see undecided voters move towards a Yes vote – they are undecided for a reason, they are there to be won over and the more hustings, debates, TV and Radio shows with non politicians and more arts, business, general public members – we will win this. e.g Abertay’s debate.
     
     
    As for the bairns, I think they will vote for the union. I randomly search for independence on Twitter just to see views and although, it’s probably not the best indicator or method to sample opinion, 90% of the time it’ll return ”Anyone who votes for independence is a a ….” I cannot understand how the tide has turned so drastically, without sounding McGlashan is it an increase in British residents, or the media? I’m 29 and 10-11 years ago if we were given a vote on Indy, I’m pretty sure the results would be 3/4th in favour of it.
     
    Lots of time. Roll on this white paper. Hopefully it too can attract some of the undecided. It’s a poll and we know how far out they can be even 10 weeks before elections – 2011 May etco, but I’d love to see us into the 40s in a few before Christmas just to get the ball rolling for next year’s push.
     
    Great work though and very interesting to read the comments.
     
     

  107. muttley79 says:

    @X Sticks
     
    Ken MacDonald has just mentioned the Wings poll on his Headlines program.
     
    I saw him at the independence rally last month.  Not sure if he was there on a voluntary or professional basis. 

  108. Dave McEwan Hill says:

    I think the young vote will be readily moved and when it does it’ll be an avalanche. Once they decide they are being taken for granted it won’t be cool to be Better Together anymore and I’m sure YES is putting a lot of thought into this at the moment .
    O/T
    The Sunday Herald is well worth its price again (and get another couple of copies for your neighbours) including high praise in both the editorial and Iain Macwhirter for AS and there is praise for him in the Sunday Sun (following high praise for him in the Sun on Saturday). Hardly a mention on Dunfermline anywhere which I find odd indeed (as I posted already onanother topic) and perhaps the contradictions on that campaign from the Labour Party’s previous statements is about to come home to roost . As for the electorate in Dunfermline they’ve got nothing for nothing.

  109. handclapping says:

    Stu, can we extrapolate from JoLa’s refrain of – the SNP should be doing more for the jobs, cost of living, football results, whatever than spending all their time on the referendum – that this is what Slab are picking up in their focus groups and it is this perception, that the referendum is not a priority, that underlies the gender gap?
     
    In which case the tide will turn just because answering the question will become unavoidable and so not available to deprioritise. Then they will have to consider what a No vote might mean. I have found that male Nos can normally make an argument as to why they think that way but an awful lot of female Nos are “just because”, which I take as an indication that they haven’t really thought about it at all.
     
    That being the case, or even if not, the best course of action at present is just to ask what they envisage happening if Scotland votes no.

  110. liz says:

    Re a couple of points – I grew up in the 60’s and union jacks were everywhere and cool.
    I remember my first trip abroad with the school to Belgium and I still have photos of me and my pals proudly carrying our union jack bags on the beach.
    I was about 13 at the time.
     
    Even with that I supported an independent Scotland since I was old enough to think for myself – so part of this might be that all of us are apparently ’10 years younger’ than we used to be.
     
    I used to teach and Curriculum for Excellence is deeply unpopular in schools – although I would not change my vote on a single issue.
    Lastly I am female, a house owner and 60+ and only death will stop me from voting Yes.
     
    So what is it with women –
    I think SLab knew exactly what they were doing focussing on wife-beater Bill Walker –
    – the Daily Mail is very popular  
    – they are more ‘conservative’
     
    How to change that – I don’t think it’s to do with the X factor etc but someone with more knowledge of psychology might be able to give us an insight.

  111. Graeme Purves says:

    The young folk have grown up with an SNP Government.  It’s all they can really remember.  They see it as the establishment, take its competence for granted and think that it’s cool to be sceptical or opposed.  It’s a bit of a rebel without a cause thing.  I think things will change nearer the poll.  The internet and organisations like National Collective will play an important part in influencing the under 25s.

  112. Duncan says:

    I thoroughly agree that we need to be positive but we must not, in so doing, ignore unpleasant truths regarding momentum.
    Please correct me if I’m wrong but I calculate that our new poll (compared to our previous one a few months back) shows:
    Yes up 1%
    No up 7%
    DK down 10%
    If I am correct in my maths then we must acknowledge this and work out how we can address the drift from DK to No.
     
     

  113. BuckieBraes says:

    A friend of mine has two sons at state secondary school and the elder of them will be voting in the referendum. He is currently a quite definite No, coming away with stuff like, ‘If Scotland votes for independence, I’m leaving.’
     
    His Torygraph-reading dad protests his innocence, saying the boy’s opinion has nothing to do with him (although I suspect it has, just a bit), and that this viewpoint is prevalent among the peer group. In contrast, he finds most of the other parents seem to be pro-independence.
     
    The laddie is a typical reticent 15 year old and finding out the reason for this antipathy to independence is going to be like drawing teeth, but I’ll give it a try.

  114. Abigdoob says:

    Could the disparity with the female voting intention be down to TV coverage being predominantly male, and of that, predominantly dull middle aged overweight red faced & multiple chinned males.
    It’s enough to turn off anybody.

  115. a supporter says:

    I think it is part of a woman’s genetic make up to be much more cautious about change. Women after all bear and rear the child and stability is essential for that. And there are maybe other ‘womenly’ reasons which men do not appreciate.
    Until a few months ago my wife was completely anti-Indy and Alex Salmond, thinking him too obese and ugly to do anything. ( I know. WTF does that matter?) But when AS started to diet and lose weight and an attractive looking man started to appear from out of the fat she began to change. There were then a few incidents on the BBC where people spoke blatantly about Britain which of course excludes NI. And the last straw for her was last week when AS shafted Andrew Marr by pointing out to him a few times that the BBC’s use of Britain excluded NI. At that point AS became her champion and she is now a rabid Indy supporter.
    I suppose the point I’m making is that sometimes some people make huge decisions not based on hard economic or other facts, but on emotion and trivialities. Me, I’ll vote YES come hell or high water even if it was going to cost me real money, because I just believe in Independence.

  116. Graeme Purves says:

    I also think the Yes campaign needs specifically to address questions that will be of concern to young people, like how might independence affect my university, college or career options?

  117. Kev says:

    So we have just under 11 months to convince at least another 15% of the electorate, just 1 in every 7 of them, to vote YES? I am pretty confident that is achievable, and if the White Paper gets the coverage it deserves by the media, who for months have been constantly demanding it like some impatient child, then a high proportion of the DK’s should be converted to Yes almost overnight…it would be good then to get another Wings poll by the end of the year to see what impact it has had…

  118. The Flamster says:

    Regarding 18 – 24 year olds – don’t forget about colleges.  My son attends college in Greenock and last year, due to having to travel quite a bit to get there, was late for a class.  The lecturer was addressing the independence debate and was saying to the students that Scotland couldn’t go it alone and they should vote No.  Turns out he was the only Yes supporter but wasn’t asked because he was late.  He says to anyone who disagrees with him “my mum studied politics at Uni – ask her” and that gets him out of any difficult situation he often finds himself in.
     
    On another note, he also follows the likes of Kevin Bridges, Limmy & Frankie Boyle on Twitter who are all Yes supporters, as do many of this friends.  This may be the way to go.  With the popularity of Still Game coming back and Greg Hemphill being a Yes supporter.  The new Still Game FB page got 144K likes in less than a week upon the announcement of a return and, the tickets sites crashed with the amount of people queuing for tickets.
     
    Just thoughts but maybe with youngsters the funny/cool route is the way to go?

  119. David says:

    How many people were questioned for this survey? Was it 435 or 861? 
    431 is a very low number for an important survey, in my opinion, and would result in a “margin of error” of 4 or 5 % in every result. 
    For 861 people, the margin of error would be between 3 and 4%.  
     
    I personally do not place much trust in surveys which use less than 1000 people. At that size, the error margin is 2 to 3%. 
    However, with a 4% margin as here, the YES vote is somewhere in the range 31%-39%, and the NO vote is in the range 39%-47%, so it is possible that both are level at 39!  

  120. Dave McEwan Hill says:

    The Flamster
    The lecturer should have been reported. We have the same problem in our Grammar School but a complaint has to be supported which provides a difficulty for parents who are not to keen to do so.

  121. Malcolm says:

    So 18-24 year olds are the most pro EU and the strongest No voters. Just wait until next years European election and they’ll see that they may face a stark choice. Nigel Farrage… the yes campaigns secret weapon. Young people are usually sure…until they’re not!

  122. Weedeochandorris says:

    I’m not sure it’s so straightforward with the youngest voters.  I know they’re classed as generation Y and have a different outlook on the future than generation X (baby boomers) have.  I also understand that one of the ‘characteristics’ they have is a different approach to things e.g. money for money’s sake – they need to have a more emotional connection to things.  Interestingly Obama has a huge following in this age group born beginning 80’s through to 2000 and they believe in him so he’s obviously done his homework.  So I think they will definately need to be engaged in a vision for Scotland and we must find ways to really get them connected. I dont know that I’ve articulated this very well but there’s lots of information on the net about it. They have a different approach to life that we need to find the key to hopefully the SG will have done some research?

  123. muttley79 says:

    @Duncan
     
    Please correct me if I’m wrong but I calculate that our new poll (compared to our previous one a few months back) shows:
    Yes up 1%
    No up 7%
    DK down 10%
    If I am correct in my maths then we must acknowledge this and work out how we can address the drift from DK to No.
     
    I am not sure why you are saying that the No vote is increasing in the polls, while the don’t knows are decreasing?  It is the other way around is it not?

  124. ScottishThinker says:

    The last time Panelbase told us the opinion of the whole sample was July, when it was Yes: 33% No: 45% DK: 22% (same as April). Now it’s Yes: 35% No: 43% DK: 22%, so according to Panelbase there’s been a 2% swing in three months. Maybe something has pushed a few don’t knows to Yes in the past month? 

  125. frazzle dazzle darling says:

    I think that there are a few reasons for the very disappointing polling of the 18 to 24 group.  The olympics where Britain enjoyed considerable success (or incredible success if you take the BBC’s word for it) and the fact that they were not old enough to enjoy supporting Scotland in the Football World Cup (last time was obviously France 98), nor have they witnessed any Rugby Success (last time was 1990).  Indeed since France 98 we have had very little to cheer about and a great deal to cringe over.  It is little wonder that they are drawn to the success of Team GB, Andy Murray and Bradley Wiggins.  Add to that the gulf between the English football leagues and ours.  Many younger folk look to the English teams, completely missing Scottish teams out of the loop at all.  From an aspirational point of view, London must seem like the centre of the universe to them.  They won’t remember Thatcher, or the poll tax, going to war in Iraq and probably mostly do not know about the referendum that never was in 1979.  On top of that, they have grown up with devolution, which for the last 6 years the SNP have run particularly well.  The SNP have protected their free education and have committed to continue to do so.  The NHS seems to be safe, our universities are doing great, schools are performing better and they were all educated in brand spanking new PFI schools, crime is at an all time low, unemployment is pretty much the same as the rest of the UK.  They do not see devolution as a process, a stepping stone.  To them devolution is the norm and independence is a cliff.  Most of them will not have voted in a general election before, where they would get the experience of their vote meaning nothing.  The BBC news gets beamed onto office and call centre walls all day 5+ days a week. You switch on your computer at work and the BBC news automatically is displayed in the margin for the duration of your shift.  You come home and there are so many channels to try and get your head around, most of them utter rubbish, and nobody buys tv guides anymore, so you just stick with BBC 1, because you know where you are at.  Meanwhile Scotland’s output has gone from bad to worse and Still Game is the only stand out (It is brilliant, but then it is hardly to encourage anyone to vote Yes).  All over the world the Union Jack is seen as a cool symbol.  I think that the Scottish cringe factor is the strongest that I can remember.  Look at how Salmond was lambasted for holding a Saltire at Wimbledon and notably Andy Murray did not). They have grown up with nuclear power and nuclear weapons and might not have the same sense of fear about them.  Their school teachers (who along with their parents are one of the biggest influences in their way of thinking) were mostly women (who are mostly no voters) and mostly in unions (so if not aligned with the labour party, they are fed the party line).  Nevertheless, all that said; I was and still am fully supportive of 16 year olds getting the vote.  Although the principle is sound, the logic may be questionable.  Another thing that I believe that I have noticed is that there is a lot less kilt wearing and ceilidh clubs and dances on the go than there was 10 to 15 years ago.  I suspect that it comes down to identity and that the 18 to 24 year olds are likely to have a pretty diluted Scottish identity and a stronger British identity than anybody else.  Sad and banal, it may be, but I can’t help thinking that the failing of the national football team has a massive impact upon this generation.  Not qualifying for Brazil 2014 is a real killer.  Not that it puts them on a downer, just that they have never experienced the highs.  Especially since it is likely that they will be watching their heros playing anyway.

  126. Captain Caveman says:

    “Gnat’s chuff”..? I’d hardly think that’s an apt description for an 8% lead in response to this rather meaningless poll; it’s all such so much rather crude spin and wishful thinking.
     
    Fact is, when it *finally* comes down to it (and thanks to the SNP’s sense of timing and conviction, the build up and investment uncertainty to indyref makes Frodo Baggins’ cinematic riverside farewell to his companions seem like a blipvert by comparison), people are not going to vote for independence. I’m sorry, but they’re just *not*. The UK economy is really starting to move apace now (much to the chagrin of Labour and the SNP no doubt), and barring any EU/Euro collapse, that’s only going to improve massively further between now and the end of next year. People are going to be feeling an awful lot better about the UK by then, and with very good reason. There just aren’t going to be enough Scots who would risk all of that in exchange for something that most would agree isn’t actually “independence” at all, in any sensible definition of the term (and most certainly not as compared to what the SNP were talking about even 2-3 years back).

  127. Keef says:

    And your evidence for this miraculous recovery of the worst depression in almost a hundred years is?

  128. Captain Caveman says:

    UK GDP increased 0.8% last quarter (provisional figure; almost certain to be revised upwards). 
     
    So in answer to your question: cold, hard, factual statistics that require nothing by way of “optimistic interpretation”. But anyway, as a businessman, I can see for myself how much better things are getting now, and I know that’s only going to improve still further, exponentially. Happy days.

  129. Dave McEwan Hill says:

    The recovery is illusory and built on more money which is devaluing daily sloshing about in the economy. The UK’s national debt meantime is increasing at the rate of £2.3billion every day.
     
    We face lowering standards of living for the next two decades or a collapse.
    Happy days?

  130. Keef says:

    That 0.8% was totally driven by the city state of London’s banking and finance sector and the criminal profits they are making from fleecing the rest of the country.
     
    If you want cold, hard facts look to the Red cross giving out food parcels in the UK for the first time since WWII.
     
    As businessman, I’m sure you might be seeing things improving for YOURSELF. This does not seem to gel for the many hundred of thousands who are barely subsisting on handouts from food banks the length and breadth of the UK.
     
    If I thought for one moment you were posting this to give hope to the masses who are suffering the biggest divide between rich and poor since Dickens wrote Oliver twist I’d ignore your remarks as just plain stupid optimism. When you end with a frivolous “Happy Days” it seems you are not.

    Your callous, individualistic myopia is odious in its extreme.

  131. Captain Caveman says:

    Devaluation was absolutely inevitable: bless your cotton socks that we *can* devalue, unlike poor old Spain, Greece, Portugal and even France. Seriously, what did people expect after the complete meltdown of largely Scottish banks, following the then Labour government’s abject and total failure to regulate them? Notwithstanding, the UK’d debt is increasing at a much reduced rate; the size of the public sector has greatly shrunk; welfare is under control; there are now more people working in *real* (private sector) jobs there have ever been – and the economy is growing again, ever faster.
     
    Of course, things could be much better – they *need* to be much better. However, this is a mere stepping stone onto better things for all of us; good old trickle down economics strikes again. Anyone who *seriously* thinks that this is all somehow a bad showing after a mere 2-3 years in govt., with so little room to manoeuvre and completely spent up under Labour, needs their head examining.

  132. Murray McCallum says:

    http://www.marketbusinessnews.com/uk-economic-growth-picks-third-quarter/3764
    “Despite a progressively accelerating economic recovery, UK economic growth during Q3 2013 has not yet managed to reach its pre-crisis GDP level.”
    “At the end of the third quarter of this year, UK GDP was still 2.5% below its peak in Q1 2008.”
    “From its peak in 2008 to its trough in 2009, UK GDP fell 7.2%.”
    “… we are still behind a number of advanced economies such as the US and Germany that have managed to recover the output lost during the economic downturn.”
     
    We must also remember the fact that the level of inflation in the UK exceeds economic growth; so no net real value in growth.
    The London house price bubble also needs attention.

  133. Captain Caveman says:

    “Your callous, individualistic myopia is odious in its extreme.”
     
    That, right there, is precisely why it’s just not possible to engage in sensible discussion, let alone robust political debate, with people like you.
     
    You’re going to lose your referendum – and probably quite badly. 

  134. Keef says:

    I’m so glad we sorted that out early doors.
     
    Now away back to your cave and think about all those poor folk suffering the indignity of Red cross and food bank handouts before you decide to post insensitive drivel and claim to be seeking a robust political debate.

  135. Captain Caveman says:

    Yawn.
    Whatever, dick.

  136. Train Fares says:

    moujick says:
    My hunch re the younger age group is that they don’t have a grasp of the issues and are only attuned to the “lets all be a big happy better together family” line.

    Time we lobbed a fearbomb or two of our own at them. Do they know the Tories want to re-introduce conscription?:-
    http://goo.gl/2kCovg

    That act only applies to England and Wales

  137. Dave McEwan Hill says:

    A common refuge of someone defeated in an argument is to suddenly affect disinterest and resort to personal abuse – so we’re running true to form on this one

  138. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “I think that there are a few reasons for the very disappointing polling of the 18 to 24 group. The olympics where Britain enjoyed considerable success (or incredible success if you take the BBC’s word for it) and the fact that they were not old enough to enjoy supporting Scotland in the Football World Cup (last time was obviously France 98), nor have they witnessed any Rugby Success (last time was 1990). Indeed since France 98 we have had very little to cheer about and a great deal to cringe over. It is little wonder that they are drawn to the success of Team GB, Andy Murray and Bradley Wiggins. Add to that the gulf between the English football leagues and ours. Many younger folk look to the English teams, completely missing Scottish teams out of the loop at all. From an aspirational point of view, London must seem like the centre of the universe to them. They won’t remember Thatcher, or the poll tax, going to war in Iraq and probably mostly do not know about the referendum that never was in 1979. On top of that, they have grown up with devolution, which for the last 6 years the SNP have run particularly well. The SNP have protected their free education and have committed to continue to do so. The NHS seems to be safe, our universities are doing great, schools are performing better and they were all educated in brand spanking new PFI schools, crime is at an all time low, unemployment is pretty much the same as the rest of the UK. They do not see devolution as a process, a stepping stone. To them devolution is the norm and independence is a cliff. Most of them will not have voted in a general election before, where they would get the experience of their vote meaning nothing. The BBC news gets beamed onto office and call centre walls all day 5+ days a week. You switch on your computer at work and the BBC news automatically is displayed in the margin for the duration of your shift. You come home and there are so many channels to try and get your head around, most of them utter rubbish, and nobody buys tv guides anymore, so you just stick with BBC 1, because you know where you are at. Meanwhile Scotland’s output has gone from bad to worse and Still Game is the only stand out (It is brilliant, but then it is hardly to encourage anyone to vote Yes). All over the world the Union Jack is seen as a cool symbol. I think that the Scottish cringe factor is the strongest that I can remember. Look at how Salmond was lambasted for holding a Saltire at Wimbledon and notably Andy Murray did not). They have grown up with nuclear power and nuclear weapons and might not have the same sense of fear about them. Their school teachers (who along with their parents are one of the biggest influences in their way of thinking) were mostly women (who are mostly no voters) and mostly in unions (so if not aligned with the labour party, they are fed the party line). Nevertheless, all that said; I was and still am fully supportive of 16 year olds getting the vote. Although the principle is sound, the logic may be questionable. Another thing that I believe that I have noticed is that there is a lot less kilt wearing and ceilidh clubs and dances on the go than there was 10 to 15 years ago. I suspect that it comes down to identity and that the 18 to 24 year olds are likely to have a pretty diluted Scottish identity and a stronger British identity than anybody else. Sad and banal, it may be, but I can’t help thinking that the failing of the national football team has a massive impact upon this generation. Not qualifying for Brazil 2014 is a real killer. Not that it puts them on a downer, just that they have never experienced the highs. Especially since it is likely that they will be watching their heros playing anyway.”

    Dear sweet fucking Jesus, readers.

    PUT.

    SOME.

    FUCKING.

    LINE.

    BREAKS.

    IN.

    Nobody, not one person on Earth, will read that. It could be the most intelligent, perceptive post ever written. It could tell you where to find a million pounds in used £20s in a suitcase, and the money will be safe until the end of time. I’m not even TRYING to fix that one. I’ve got stuff to do.

  139. Captain Caveman says:

    “Defeated in an argument”…? Well there hasn’t even *been* an argument, just a bunch of insults straight from the off about callous, odious myopia(TM), and all the other usual, tedious, predictable and childish crap like ooooooh, how could I been such an awful person etc. All we need now is a pantomime villain and shouts of “he’s behind you!!111” just to complete the scene.
     
    “Defeated”…? Pfft. In your dreams.

  140. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    ““Defeated in an argument”…? Well there hasn’t even *been* an argument, just a bunch of insults straight from the off about callous, odious myopia(TM), and all the other usual, tedious, predictable and childish crap like ooooooh, how could I been such an awful person etc. All we need now is a pantomime villain and shouts of “he’s behind you!!111? just to complete the scene.”

    You waded in like a boorish pantomime villain, playing the stereotypical Arrogant Tory Boy to the hilt, so don’t be acting all huffy that on this occasion you were greeted as such. You’ve had plenty of civil response here in the past, what does that tell you about this time?

  141. BuckieBraes says:

    Nobody, not one person on Earth, will read that. It could be the most intelligent, perceptive post ever written. It could tell you where to find a million pounds in used £20s in a suitcase, and the money will be safe until the end of time.
     
    (Pssst, frazzle! I read your post, and I’m off to collect the suitcase now.)

  142. Captain Caveman says:

    You say I “waded in”, but to me it just seems pretty silly to describe an 8% lead in a poll (with most others suggesting a greater lead) as “tight as a gnat’s chuff”. As for all the other stuff, it is an undeniable, empirical fact that the UK economy is now enjoying an ever strengthening recovery, in stark contrast to peer nations. We can debate the likely reasons like grownups, or we can have the usual, childish YOUR WORSE THAN HITLER type nonsense. I was the first to say that the current state of affairs is only a stepping stone; that much better things are needed – but it’s a start.
     
    Despite this, it was the usual name-calling from the off – sometimes I don’t mind so much, but other times I’m just not in the mood, sorry. 

  143. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “You say I “waded in”, but to me it just seems pretty silly to describe an 8% lead in a poll (with most others suggesting a greater lead) as “tight as a gnat’s chuff”.”

    I didn’t do that, of course. But I don’t have time for your selective Tory blindness today, I’m busy.

  144. Captain Caveman says:

    You didn’t do that? Personally I thought the clue was in the title? Still, I’m busy also, so no worries from my side, I’ve said all I wanted to say.

  145. MajorBloodnok says:

    @Captain Caveman
     
    I know you’re busy, but before you go, you may recall that you promised us a ‘positive case for the Union’ some time ago.  Do you have an ETA for that?  We wouldn’t want to get the impression you were just some sort of disruptive and ill-tempered troll, but instead that you might actually have something postive to contribute.  Thanks.

  146. Ian Brotherhood says:

    @Captain Caveman (11.30)
    ‘You’re going to lose your referendum – and probably quite badly.’ 
     

    Mibbes aye, and mibbes naw…but you don’t know.
     
    In any event, I hope you’ll come back here on Sept 19th next year – you can either savour saying ‘I told you so’, or you can take whatever medicine you’ve accumulated between now and then.
     
    Shall we call that a date CC?

  147. tartanfever says:

    captain caveman says :
     
    ‘it is an undeniable, empirical fact that the UK economy is now enjoying an ever strengthening recovery, in stark contrast to peer nations’
     
    Hooray ! By Christmas we’ll have the £1.3T national debt paid off.
     
    Why is it when people say stuff like ’empirical fact’ I just get the impression that they’re desperate ?

  148. Captain Caveman says:

    @Ian Brotherhood
     
    Stu will confirm this, I’m the first to admit I’m wrong. If Indy is won, I absolutely promise I’ll be here – on the very day itself – with people taking the piss as I eat humble pie. Make no mistake; whilst I don’t suffer fools gladly and can be a little brusque at times, I don’t exactly take myself too seriously either, or indeed at all.
     
    Besides, even if Indy is lost (which I fully expect it to be, and that’s just being totally honest about it, sorry), and despite the fact I desperately want this to be the case, I guarantee I’ll only be commiserating, not rubbing any salt into wounds. After all, I know what it’s like to have something you passionately want and believe in to be denied to you; it burns and it hurts, and I for one won’t be celebrating either way. 

  149. Ian Brotherhood says:

    @CC-
     
    Fair do’s. Cheers.



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