You couldn’t make it up
Posted on
October 16, 2012 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
Look, it’s not that we like to brag about our predicting skills, but:
What do you think: were we right?
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On #indyref2 heard some say "You hold it when you can win it" ... BUT
You never know for certain you will win it ...
However....
You never know for certain you will lose it!
But holding it galvanises the argument and helps bring the issues into focus as we saw in #indyref1Misreporting Scotland tonight... "Nicola Sturgeon meets The Prime Minister"
Subliminal subjugation again, time after time. 
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Seriously, that is fucking freaky. I read his blog and noticed he was trying to credit “the genius of Cameron” (yet more evidence that he’s completely cracking up), and then here’s you on Twitter pointing out that tweet.
Uncanny is an understatement.
Spot on, Stuart! Love it!
If I were him, I’d be thinking about a deed poll rather than a deid poll.
He doesn’t read the Daily Mail by any chance does he?
At least if he did then he’d have an excuse for his attitude and ineffectual commentary.
Shouldn’t someone in the British Labour Party have a wee word in his ear and gently guide him along to the Doctor?
They can’t all be heartless bastards can they?
If the planet is still spinning and we are are still here Independence is near…
Thinking about it Caesar!mac I think you’ve got them the wrong way round.
I’m sure your comment SHOULD have read “If I were him, I’d be thinking about a deid poll rather than a deed poll.”:D
Oh dear. I actually now feel some sympathy for Ian Smart and the mental anguish,confusion and distress he is clearly feeling. That post in his blog is the most bizarre reasoning and confabulated rationalisation I have ever seen committed to print.
Does his mither allow him oot withoot supervision???? 😀
Have seen him. OK once, I wonder if his mammy dresses him?
And here was me thinking I was the king of half baked theories.
can the folks over at BBC Scotlandshire not use him as a character in one of their articles ?
Wee discussion of the boundary changes here from UK polling report.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/6297
Tories remain content they can get them through. As the changes would make it a more even battle (the current boundaries allow labour to e.g. get a majority on 35% of the vote but the Tories need closer to 42%), I support it. As a liberal democratic party, I imagine the SNP would too…
Add in a few other minor parties and Libs + Lab may not be enough to block it.
I have heard that one of the actions of the proposed boundary changes is that Mundell would lose his seat. Pandas and penguins wouldn’t be as rare as extinct Tory MP’s in Scotland! Go for it I say.
From notsosmartypants’ blog:
‘Firstly, that, as my own Party has done before to its cost, I underestimated David Cameron. For he realised that the only possible response to Salmond’s stated desire, and undoubted electoral mandate, for an Independence Referendum was to reply “Bring it on”. If only Gordon Brown had been as decisive in 2007 then Wendy Alexander would probably today be First Minister of Scotland.’
These are the alternative universe fantasies before which SLABers warm their withered haunches.
O/T
I ordered the Stephen Maxwell book from Amazon just after the announcement of its publication.
Stephen Maxwell “Arguing for Independence: Evidence, Risks and the Wicked Issues”
Estimated arrival date: October 24 2012 – November 01 2012
That is the second delay and indicates,I hope a second or even third run at the printer.
Ian Smart and many other unionists are in a state of denial.
Don’t forget a referendum on Scottish Independence is what the Independence movement have fought for many years. It’s as if the unionists have awoken from a perceived nightmare , only to realise it’s not-it’s reality. They can’t accept it. To make matters worse for them they’ve just realised The Scottish Parliament will have the final say on the wording of the question, not the EC.
David Cameron looked edgy as hell yesterday. I think he knows what’s coming.
Doug Daniel. Four letter curses aren’t necessary. It does nothing.
Take your well-earned plaudits Stuart but it has to be said that only the cognitively-challenged could have failed to have seen this coming, for Ian’s argument was always mad, completely barking mad. He mustn’t give up on this, though and, if he’s looking for a fall-back position to salvage his argument that there isn’t going to be a referendum, he needs an argument that is more credible than his previous argument.
What might this be? Well, Ian could now argue that the referendum will be scuppered because, before the section 30 order passes through Westminster, Alex Salmond will be abducted by aliens. After a disappearance of 24 hours, Salmond will be returned to earth by the mothership and will reveal to everyone that he has now been converted to unionism. This will have such a devastating effect on the Yes campaign that the referendum will be called off and at the 2015 British general election, Alex Salmond will become Britain’s new prime minister. Within days of this, Samantha Cameron will sell her story to The Sun that she is having Alex Salmond’s love-child. Salmond will be forced to resign and Gordon Brown will be asked to step in (again) as another caretaker prime minister until the British (again) work out how on earth they’re going to get out of this mess. There you go Ian.
YesYesYes
That’s too plausible for Mr. Smart.
Not in the least bit surprised – It fits the narrative fallacy he made for himself. Salmond did not want a referendum & would have used camerons intransigence as a way out. However, Cameron was too smart by half and tricked Salmond by giving him everything he wanted. So in this version, he was right but had underestimated Cameron’s ability to force Salmond into doing something he hadn’t wanted.
It’s not just him that suffers from this. The entire “no” campaign has boxed itself in with little wiggle room. 2 years with a circular argument of negativity. 2 years for people to see the coalition at it’s worst. 2 years of ever more surreal brainfarts from Lamont & co. Two years of double bind theory dilemmas for the unionists.
Here’s a totally implausible scenario based on past unionist foresight.
– Scots vote for a devolved Scottish parliament
– Scots get said Scottish parliament (following the second time they voted yes for it)
– Scots vote in SNP government
– Scots vote in SNP majority government
– Scots vote in a referendum on Scottish independence
What a ridiculous idea LOL. Will never happen.
The thing that I don’t understand about Smart is that as a lawyer, he has made his political views widely known through his blog and in the media. This would not normally be a problem, however, since he has publically aired his ludicrous referendum theory, and which has been subsequently proven to have been fantasy, how can he be taken seriously again? In addition, who the fuck would want someone like that representing them in legal matters? Has anyone close to him, politically or personally, had a word about this with him and spoken bluntly about the effects of his ‘political commentary?’
The next challenge then, Stu and others, is to predict what Smart will say when a Yes vote is returned.
“Devastating blow for Salmond as he is forced to accept separation by genius Better Together campaigners”?
“Horror for Salmond as separate Scotland bans curries and he becomes the first cannibal roaming the streets of a separate Scotland, just like I predicted in 2012”?
“Nurse! The man under my bed is there again! Make him go away!”
Ideas?
I think what has really wrong-footed the No campaign so absolutely is that AS was perhaps expected to behave as a typical career politician and scupper the referendum, out of self-interest (“that’s what politics is all about after all – Salmond is just another politician like the rest of us”). Well, no, AS and most if not all of his colleagues are operating with a different purpose. Boy are they going for it and boy has this frightened their opponents. They thought they had the measure of the man. Their fatal mistake may have been obvious to us, but I suppose you have to be a bit of a nationalist to understand the depth of conviction that is driving the yes campaign. The unionist politicians and MSM still don’t quite get it and they are starting to feel nervous. I haven’t seen so many glum faces on the BBC during the past two days, since that wonderful morning in May 2011.
Interesting times indeed,NO devo-max eh, I wonder if that would push
Henry mcleish into the “yes”labour camp, and how about Murdo Fraser ditching
Ruth for his new Scottish party, LIB-DEM`S.?, nooooooo, ach well there is the irony
of Lord Steels wife, who has been reported as intending to vote “yes”,imagine she
creates a new party, wonder what Wullie R would say about that? (“hey, but what else
can you do”??) oh yes, among the nastiness of the forthcoming debates, there is
got to be moments of relief and frivolous speculations.
Talking of fantasy-land, just noticed this comment on the New Statesman.
The question really is why has Salmond got nearly all he wants? What has he promised to Cameron in private? Remember that in 2015 the SNP, having lost the referendum, could hold the balance of power in the new UK Parliament. If this happens don’t expect a Labour led government to emerge.
It’s a new take I hadn’t seen before, I’ll give him that.
@Morag, regarding the SNP and Conservatives I have copied and pasted a post on another thread, because I can’t be bothered to type it out again. Remember, both parties have the same main opponent. This still applies after a No vote on independence.
The Conservatives and the SNP definitely have Labour by the balls. The Conservatives know historically that they are the dominant political force in England, particularly in the south-east where elections are decided. Therefore, they know that in the last four decades Labour has had to move to the right to try and gain support of Conservative support. However, Labour in Scotland saw what happened to the Conservatives here in the 1980s and tried to resist the rightwards move. That has now changed as the SNP established themselves, first as the main opposition at Holyrood, and now as the governing party. Labour, in their tribal loathing of the SNP, now have nowhere to go but to the right, as they unite with the Conservatives, both to win at Westminster and win the referendum. However, Labour in Scotland can’t square the circle because to get into power in London and win the referendum, they are going to have to spectacularly piss off their core support, the elements in their party who support independence, and last but not least, progressive opinion in Scotland, whose support they need to return to power in Edinburgh. In short, they appear to be fucked….
It’s obvious Morag! That’s just what you’d expect Tartan Tories to do, right?
@Morag
I rather think this is trying to find a reason for a decision that Cameron had no choice but to make, after being maneuvered into a corner by Alex Salmond. Frankly this has been an example of a classic piece of carefully managed Machiavellian genius! I’m glad AS is on our side!
I’ve never understood Ian Smarts point of view.He extolls the delights of Italy (quite rightly ),the culture ,the style, the 5 autonomous regions who get to keep their levied taxes and not a thing Rome can do about it- a wee bit of practice what you preach Ian.
This reminds me of those scenes in old daffy duck and bugs bunny movies as they move Elmer Fudd’s rifle barrel between them –
“Rabbit Season”
“no, Duck Season”
“no, Rabbit Season”
“Duck Season”
“Rabbit Season”
<pause>
“Rabbit Season”
“no DUCK season, its duck season, DUCK SEASON”
<<<<Boooom>>>>
More years ago than I care to count I was Ian Smart’s trainee in Easterhouse. He was fairly Rational back then, a really nice bloke actually, someone I thought would be able to look beyond party to the greater good. Shame how he’s Now mad as a box of frogs