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Why so worried?

Posted on May 10, 2013 by

We’re a little suspicious of yesterday’s Ipsos MORI poll on Scottish politics.

It’s not so much the numbers for independence, which are within normal fluctuations and error margins and may also reflect a recent tsunami of doom-laden, irrational and hyperbolic media coverage on the currency issue. No, what’s got us in sceptical mood are the frankly ridiculous Holyrood voting intentions figures, which appear to suggest a shift towards Labour of about 16 points in the space of two months during which the party did nothing but make a laughing-stock of itself.

hvi

Frankly, if we could find even a single Labour supporter who thought Johann Lamont was actually going to be Scotland’s next First Minister we’d be astonished, so we’re putting the poll down as a rogue until it’s corroborated by another one. But there was something even stranger about it.

darlingmori

Now, let’s remember – the headline figures for independence in the poll put the No camp further ahead than at any time in recent memory, by a whopping two-to-one margin. So why are so few of the anti-independence side’s supporters happy with their leader is performing? Shouldn’t they be cock-a-hoop, carrying Alistair Darling shoulder-high the length and breadth of Scotland?

Why, instead, does his approval rating trail Nicola Sturgeon’s by 53 to 16, when he’s seemingly winning by a mile? Why are more No voters dissatisfied than there are Yes voters unhappy with the Deputy FM, even when fully a third have no opinion? Darling’s dissatisfaction rating among his own supporters, in fact, is at 25% the highest of any leader in the poll, and his 41% approval rating the lowest by a significant distance.

(He’s the only one of the seven leaders named in the survey whose performance can’t command the loyalty of at least half of their own people.)

ownparty

One might reasonably wonder what would make No supporters happy, if a crushing (apparent) two-to-one lead doesn’t. Could it be that they, too, know that “Better Together” can’t maintain the current torrent of relentless negativity for another year and a half? Clearly, we’re not the best people to ask. But it’s an interesting question, no?

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    91 to “Why so worried?”

    1. DMyers says:

      The public are strange people who often hold contradictory and nonsensical views, without even thinking about what they think and why.

    2. Ian Anderson says:

      Been lurking on the forum for a few months now, first time poster.  May I just say thank you all for your informative posts and comments.

      I really do worry that we have a lot to do yet.  I sparked up a conversation with some people in work today.  They started out saying they were voting “No”.  After 10 minutes of me explaining that Tory/Labour MSM was controlling all the information they were receiving, talking about our £4Trillion oil, McCrone report, all the BT lies/Scaremongering, me being banned from BT facebook page for polite debating, I think I managed to push them the “dont know” or even “Possibly Yes” demographic.

      I know there is a long way to go but I do hope that Yes Scotland has a proper strategy about how they are going to let people know what the true facts of how terrible the BT campaign, and Westminster governement, really is. 
       
       

    3. Jim Mitchell says:

      I agree with the above, many of them won’t have even given any consideration to how they will vote yet.
      that;s why i think the situation with UKIP down south will make a difference, because the attitude of the other parties will make voters have to thonk.

    4. handclapping says:

      As I’ve said before telephone polling gives an excess of people who think they think and so will often give incomprehensible results

    5. Eco_Exile says:

      Wouldn’t any modern politician would be over the moon with an approval rating of over 60% ?

    6. scottish_skier says:

       which are within normal fluctuations and error margins

      Erm, Aye.

      Oh and Labour will be so….. excited. They just jumped from a 6 point to an 11 point lead (up 4 themselves) in just one day according to Yougov!

      Oh, just read up on polling errors and no, they probably didn’t.
      🙂

    7. Ericmac says:

      Someone interview Lamont and ask what she thinks…  I badly need cheering up and could do with a good laugh today. 
      “Well, its completely obvious that its speaks to something that we have been talking about all along.  Well, clearly when the reports are concluded it will be obvious that what I am saying is we should be doing exactly what matters, and that is the thing that the others are not doing.  The labour party has always stood for that in any case and we should all know the reason. But I tell you something, we should do a study which will prove that this poll proves, that Scotland will be better off doing that thing, what Alex Salmond said we shouldn’t do at the last FMQ”
      I couldn’t wait. I decided to write it for her. 
       
        
       

    8. beachthistle says:

      An updated version of a post I did yesterday, prompted by MORI”s latest press release entitled:
      Why it is hard to see much hope for Salmond and his political dream”   http://bit.ly/ZTDQR3 
       
      If I was the MD of a national office of an international polling company which requires for its very existence to be, and to be perceived to be, impartial, I would not have allowed something like that to go out.
      On the other hand it is difficult being a multinational corporation without having any political baggage and sympathies…
      Anyway, even before I saw that, I’ve had increasing doubts about MORI’s impartiality – and methodology –  re their IndyRef polling.
      The main reason is (was!) because last December they self-funded their own survey of ‘high level’ business leaders which, in my opinion, was guaranteed to produce a high anti-Indy result, which they then announced in a very triumphant, trumpeting, Daily Mailesque way…

      Another reason is their oldest age-group category in their Yes/No methodology: ’55+’. Before that is 35-54, usually the highest % of Yes. It then always drops off when it comes to 55+ – an age-group which presumably includes up to 90+.
      Both the  number and proportion of retirees, who I would say it safe to assume a relatively big majority intend to No more than Yes (as Mori’s own poll results show), has gone up in every MORI Yes/No poll since June last year. June 12: 254. Oct 12: 267. January 13: 270. May 13: 275.
      There’s a rise in the percentage of retirees in the 55+ age group from 69% in June last year to 75% in the most recent one.

      I haven’t done all the analysis yet to figure out what difference that might make to the overall result, but I reckon it’s at least around a percentage point, potentially a few more. I’m not saying that it is deliberate poll-fixing by MORI – but I am saying that it is sloppy, and gives some, er elasticity.
      The fact that there has been a consistent trend of increases in the number of  and proportion of of retirees in the 55+ age group is at best sloppy methodological application and/or oversight which has a high chance of introducing a bias against Yes. And I’m just suspicious why this sloppiness has not been picked up and/or amended…and wondering what other sources of possible ‘elasticity’ there may inadvertently be in their methodology or their application of it…

    9. scottish_skier says:

      Edit, sorry, that was a few of days back – table on UK polling report not updated. 
      Although Labour have just recorded their lowest share on yougov UK for over a year.

    10. Yesitis says:

      If a person suggests that the polls may not exactly be representative of the will of the Scottish people, and that there is a clear and obvious agenda involved – some would argue that person is deluded.
       
      I therefore consider myself deluded. It`s a badge of honour.
       
       

    11. Les Wilson says:

      We need some fire in the belly of the YES campaign? or is it possible that OUR strategists are keeping their powder dry and trying to get Bitter Together to keep tripping themselves up enough to get voters heartily sick of them? 
      Then blast them with  everything we have, well I really really hope that is the case, we seem to be forever on the back foot at the moment,I feel our hard working activists need a bit of a lift and time perhaps to do something that can floor B/T even for a short time.
      So someone get to it, we cannot afford to  lose perhaps hard fought for converts, we need to bolster their spirits. We know we can win a factual debate, we need to try a  bit harder to  win at least some of the rhetoric that is  flying around.

    12. Training Day says:

      @beachthistle
      That is an incredible piece of spin by MORI – the dream of independence ‘disappearing’ 500 days out from the vote??
       
      But the best bit of all is.. “And there is nothing to suggest that the nationalists will have the advantages of an ineffectual and discredited opposition which the SNP benefited from in 2011.”

      Bwahahahaha!  And MORI expect to be taken seriously?
       

    13. Les Wilson says:

      Sorry,just to add,
      I think it was wrong of the SNP to lamely lay down to the “Cybernat” claims that have been put out and accepted,when there is a lack of evidence to confirm, who,what, or when!

    14. ianbrotherhood says:

       
       
      Forget polls.
       
      Get to grips with something real, like this:
       
       
      ‘We are talking about freedom. We exercise freedom. If freedom be denied us we seize it as our right. No one gives us our freedom. We take it. If it is denied us we continue to take it. We have no choice. If it is taken from us and we allow it to be taken from us then we are colluding in our own subjection.’
       James Kelman, from:
       
      http://www.christiebooks.com/ChristieBooksWP/2012/03/james-kelman-on-self-determination/

    15. beachthistle says:

      Some more of MORI the impartial pollster’s spin:
      “These last few weeks have been difficult for the ‘Yes’ campaign as the UK government has stepped up its efforts to persuade Scots to vote ‘No’ in 2014. In particular the debate around the currency options in the event of a ‘Yes’ vote was widely seen as being beneficial for the ‘No’ campaign. And the recent debate around state pension provision in an independent Scotland may also have had some negative consequences on public opinion as far as the nationalists are concerned.

      So, where now for the two campaigns? An historical perspective on previous campaigns highlights the challenges faced by Yes Scotland. Nationalists often cite the remarkable turnaround in the SNP’s fortunes before the Holyrood election of 2011 as evidence that their dream of independence remains achievable. However, the poll leads enjoyed by Labour in advance of that election were far less than those enjoyed by the ‘No’ camp in our new poll. And there is nothing to suggest that the nationalists will have the advantages of an ineffectual and discredited opposition which the SNP benefited from in 2011.

      Still, remember that at the time of the 1975 EEC referendum, Gallup found that by 55% to 45% the British public intended to vote ‘out’, not ‘in’, and six months later the referendum vote was 67% to 33% in favour of staying in. But then all the major national newspapers, the trade unions and big business were in favour of a yes vote; it’s not like that in Scotland today, and therefore opinion is less likely to swing in favour of independence.

      So, while we are still a long way out from the vote and events may change opinion, it is clear that nationalists face a serious challenge in the months ahead. And there will need to be an unprecedented change in public mood for their dream of independence to be realised.”
      http://bit.ly/ZTDQR3 
      (My bold high/lowlights)

    16. FreddieThreepwood says:

      Welcome aboard Ian Anderson.
      According to Yes Scotland, if we each persuade just one other person to vote ‘yes’ we will win the day. Sounds like you’re more than doing your bit!
      But, aye – getting the message across. There lies the rub in rather a lot of the Rev’s postings on here. If the MSM can’t be forced or persuaded to change then it must be by-passed. So far I think the only thing we haven’t suggested is sky-writing. Anyone own a plane?

    17. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “However, the poll leads enjoyed by Labour in advance of that election were far less than those enjoyed by the ‘No’ camp in our new poll.”

      As I recall, Labour enjoyed a lead of around 15 points going into 2011. The SNP eventually won the vote by around 14 points over Labour, a turnaround of 29 points. The No camp’s lead according to this poll is 28 points.

    18. HandandShrimp says:

      The circle I can never square is the selflessness of the love
       
      Here we are, a wee country, desperately poor and unbelieveably stupid and yet at every turn there are those desperate to retain us in the Union so they can nurture us and soothe our troubled brow with their munificence. Such is their burning desire to spread the love there is no scare story, no darkest warning too terrible to mention that will not be brought to bear to achieve their end.
       
      What was the C S Lewis quote “She lived for others…you could tell the others by their haunted expressions”

    19. Stuart Black says:

      Greetings, Ian Anderson, and welcome!

    20. Stuart Black says:

      @HandandShrimp: Now that’s satire. I believe Ms Calman is looking for a scriptwriter, interested?

    21. HandandShrimp says:

      Stuart
       
      I think I might be a wee touch off message for Susan

    22. EdinScot says:

      “These last few weeks have been difficult for the ‘Yes’ campaign as the UK government has stepped up its efforts to persuade Scots to vote ‘No’ in 2014
       
      It would seem that Ipsos Mori is duly following the most recent of Unionist spinning with this ‘difficult last few weeks’ line trotted out last sunday on the politics show by Guardian journalist Kirsty Scott to name but one.    Bear in mind, this was in the wake of Ian Taylors’ donorgate drama which had two train wreck interviews supplied by Lamont and Sarwar within hours of each other then we had the Unionists on the back foot over Susan Calmans’alleged death threats and Ian Smarts’ public breakdown on twitter. Then Scotland has looked on as UKIP made substantial gains across England as they lurch even further to the right with the NO campaigns EU in or out scare story smashed to smithereens….but its been a  difficult few weeks for the YES campaign.
       
      Aye right!  Something doesnt smell right in fact im smelling shite.  It  just would never do if Ipsos Mori had been ‘got at’.  I mean, i always expected the British State would throw everything it had at the Scottish Independence movement but dodgy polls?  Shurley Shome Mishtake Shirley!  We know we arent getting a properly fair debate due to all the Unionist scaremongering and thwarting democracy by favouring one side and demonising the other i.e, us the people with all their Cybernat hysteria but would they..?

    23. Iain says:

      Regarding Darling, even if one accepts that thus far BT have been successful at strangling the debate with negativity (and will likely continue with that strategy), he’s the wrong man for fronting that. If your leader’s USP is calm and measured, what’s the point of having him leading the charge in frothing SNP hatred and rubbishing independence? SLAB have numerous bruisers for that. 
      If there comes a point when BT think we’ve had enough stick and it’s time for some carrot, Darling will be completely tainted as a believable voice of reason, and they don’t have anyone else to fill the credible carrot-offering role.

    24. Stuart Black says:

      @HandandShrimp: Indeed, I think you might be right! Still, it could take her career in hitherto unconsidered directions… I won’t specify what direction. 😉

    25. O/T – thanks for the ‘Top/Bottom’ buttons, Rev. 🙂

    26. HandandShrimp says:

      EdinScot
       
      Polls can and do reflect the questions asked and who paid for the questions.
       
      I see the Tory donor (and tax exile) Lord Ashton paid for a poll to prove that Scots (51%) want to replace Trident. I haven’t seen the questions or who he asked but it is so out of kilter with all other polls on the matter and so in kilter with what he wants that one is inclined to think the purse strings got the tune requested from the piper.

    27. scottish_skier says:

      Oh wow. New fangled post creater. ™

      So that's what my donation was spent on eh.

      EDIT Hmm. Not fully working yet then.

    28. Paul Martin says:

      Public opinion is notoriously fickle and bidable.  Another example: public opinion was anti-Iraq war before the US/UK sent troops in. Once they were in there, the majority political and media narrative swung behind the war – and so did public opinion. It was only much later as the Bush/Blair lies came out that it swung back again to being against the whole venture.
       
       

    29. Dcanmore says:

      Welcome Ian.
       
      The Ipsos MORI polls are bunkum, they just don’t add up. They say Don’t Knows are only one in ten while a solid NO is 59%. Nope sorry I don’t believe that for one moment. Every other poll shows DKs rising to around 18% (so far) at the detriment of NOs fluctuating at around 46-48% and YES polling at around 35-38%. Ipsos MORI also only use telephone polling while the others are hybrid. Also in their diatribe, the continual references to the SNP, Nationalists and ‘Salmond’s dream’ as the only cause for Independence. No mention of a sizable support from Labour supporters, Greens, SSP and pro-Indy Unions. No, this was a deliberate spinned press release for the right-thinking journos to pick up.
       
      Also it states about 30-35% as being average support for independence over three and half decades of Ipsos MORI polling with only a spike in support in 2011. Conveniently they make no mention of the will of the Scottish to vote YES in referenda such as 1979 and 1997, while strictly not for independence they were certainly progressive votes! 

    30. HandandShrimp says:

      Horace

       

      So that is what they are…I was having a Father Dougal moment trying to control the urge to click them to see what they were.

       

      Doh!

    31. Heather McLean says:

      Ericmac says:
      10 May, 2013 at 2:46 pm

      “Someone interview Lamont and ask what she thinks…  I badly need cheering up and could do with a good laugh today.                                                                        I couldn’t wait. I decided to write it for her.”                                                      
       
      Your post certainly gave me a good laugh – you captured Ms Lamont to a T. 😉

    32. Paul Martin says:

      How you doing SS ?  Know you from "the kilted thread"…  (by-tor)

      cheers !

    33. Tattie-boggle says:

      O/T Interesting views from a teenager

      http://safi4yes.wordpress.com/2013/05/10/72/

    34. EdinScot says:

      HandandShrimp says:

      10 May, 2013 at 4:17 pm

      EdinScot
       
      Polls can and do reflect the questions asked and who paid for the questions.

      In other words, it can be a case of he who pays the piper calls the tune.  Got it HaS.

    35. Luigi says:

      It is easy to say "No", "not tomorrow", but how many soft No people will actually turn out to vote in 2014? Why make the effort if, according to the majority of recent polls, it is not really required? If they have no real love for the union, then why risk the potential personal shame and guilt afterwards if an historic opportunity, the aspiration of generations, is lost. If no really has such a huge lead, then it is easier to let someone else do the dirty work. I reckon only ultra hardcore unionists will bother to turn out in large numbers to vote no. The majority no vote is built on a foundation of loose sand. It would not take much to wash a huge chunk of it away. Not much at all.

    36. scottish_skier says:

      Paul Martin says:
      How you doing SS ?  Know you from "the kilted thread"…  (by-tor)

      Hey by-tor. Good to see you here.

      (watch this one Rev – he's trouble 😉 ) 

    37. HandandShrimp says:
      10 May, 2013 at 4:21 pm
      Horace

      So that is what they are…I was having a Father Dougal moment trying to control the urge to click them to see what they were.

      Doh!

      Well, when I see a button, I'll press it. And as I'm on my computer at work, what's the worst that could have happened? If it did anything untoward to my machine, I'd just have to head home half an hour early and then get it sorted on Monday. 🙂

    38. Jeannie says:

      @handandshrimp So that is what they are…I was having a Father Dougal moment trying to control the urge to click them to see what they were.

      Me too!  It was becoming overwhelming. Thought it was something to do with my own PC.  Can't stop playing with them now 🙂

    39. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “EDIT Hmm. Not fully working yet then.”

      In what way?

    40. Marian says:

      The YES campaign performance to date can be summed up neatly by that famous quotation from one of Scotland's greatest seafaring sons John Paul Jones "I have not yet begun to fight!"

    41. scottish_skier says:

      “EDIT Hmm. Not fully working yet then.”

      I initially had a more extended menu with smiley's, options for different text colours etc. Tried them and these didn't work in the post.

      A lot of the above options now gone and menu now more basic. I just got all excited!

      Ok,ok, must have been my imagination (IDKWYM).

      🙂

    42. Jeannie says:

      @Rev Stu

      Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      10 May, 2013 at 4:46 pm

      “EDIT Hmm. Not fully working yet then.”

      In what way?

        Ignore him, Rev.  He's just trying to push your button 🙂

    43. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      "I initially had a more extended menu with smiley's, options for different text colours etc. Tried them and these didn't work in the post."

      Yes, I took them out as there were far too many. It's still a new editor, I've just stripped it back to basics. Hopefully it'll solve the problem some people were having commenting from mobile devices. It may also let people embed images.

    44. ronald alexander mcdonald says:

      I don't trust the polls on this issue, for reasons outlined above. Nothing to do with people from Poland. On a general campaigning theme, we'll hit them hard when it suits us. One fact that is going to come out. The UK Treasury only bailed out the UK banks to the tune of 35%. The Fed covered 65% . Interesting times ahead.

    45. Adrian B says:

      Rev,

      Good job, on the new plugins. Thumbsup.

      Do you have a link with instructions on how to drive the new comment box for the 'Link' and 'image' settings, or do we just spend the next couple of weeks practicing through all the threads until someone figures it out and posts instructions?

       

       

    46. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      Um, you just paste the URL for your image into the bit where it says "URL" and the pic should appear inline. There's still no option to upload one, as far as I can see, just to embed one that's already uploaded somewhere.

    47. Indion says:

      Marion @ 4:50pm

      The YES campaign performance to date can be summed up neatly by that famous quotation from one of Scotland's greatest seafaring sons John Paul Jones "I have not yet begun to fight!"

      Oh Yes it has, even as the public component moves into the position and space opened up for it and provided with top cover by the political component's manoeuvres since this stage of the overarching campaign plan was rolled out and field tested on operations for real since May 2007.. 

    48. Boorach says:

      Yes, thanks for the top/bottom buttons Rev……. life just got a lot easier.

    49. Mosstrooper says:

      No, No, I can't stand it. Take those naughty polls away. I admit it, the past 54 years fighting for freedom were all a dreadful mistake. I was misled. You were right Darling. What about the children?

      (hold on, I think this is a replay from a past life, Please ignore)

    50. Fro says:

      I'm surprised by the 10% unknowns to be honest. Based on the straw poll I've done on people I'd say the majority of people I've spoken to are unsure but could be convinced. Not very scientific I know but this poll seems to be a less accurate reflection of the current situation than others imo.

    51. Laura says:

      Horacesaysyes and HandandShrimp

      Bet you're the kind of guys who would touch an electric fence, just to see if it hurt

       

    52. the rough bounds says:

      So, are we going to attack the Polls upon achieving our independence?

    53. muttley79 says:

      Is anyone else worried that the Yes campaign appears to have the visibility of undercover SAS?

    54. Faltdubh says:

      Lots and lots to play for.

      I´m looking at the Panebase polls with more interest and they seem to have been closet to the last election 2011 result.

      From the positive side we have on average 30% of the vote. Many Yes voters have been waiting their whole lives to cast their vote in September 2014. We will all turn out to vote Yes.

      A long, long way to go – if the polls are still so wide by January/February then I'll be pondering over the result, but until then..

      Hopefully though the poor polling of the Yes vote has set of triggers within the Yes camp and they have a Plan B, C, D and so on…. to counter and get the positive message across.

      Next week – we have Moore v Sturgeon on STV and no doubt there will be some poll of somesort after the broadcast so we could take some information from that on how neutrals/don't knows are swinging in some circles.

    55. Boorach says:

      @ Laura

       

      Doesn't eryone? 🙂

    56. Frances says:

      All this talk about the yes campaign being under the radar – if you go to their website and see what is on this weekend across the whole country, they  are out there and they are working hard.  Every week the number of pages to scroll through gets longer and longer. We are the yes campaign …

    57. muttley79 says:

      I would be more relaxed if the Yes campaign could be a little bit bolder, more feisty.  I do not think an aggressive approach is going to work, but there is a happy medium between that and this nicey, nicey approach.  I would like it if the Yes campaign, as well as saying all the positive things to be gained by independence (rid of Trident, tax and welfare powers etc), would start to say, if you vote No you are voting for at least £6000 tuition fees a year, the privatisation of the NHS in Scotland, and the end of the Welfare state.  That is what will very likely happen if we vote No, and I think Yes cannot wait to the last minute to bring it up.        

    58. muttley79 says:

      @Frances

       

      When I talk of the Yes campaign I do not mean the activists, who are very busy.  I mean the likes of Blair Jenkins, Dennis Canavan, and the SNP leadership in particular.  They may well be doing a lot in the background (I suspect they are), but the media profile is simply not there.  How many undecided and soft No voters are going to go to the Yes website, or go into the HQ in Glasgow?  Christian Wright asks about how we are going to influence the low information voter, and I do not see a strategy for achieving this at present? 

    59. Laura says:

      Boorach

      It's a boy thing I'm sure!

    60. GP Walrus says:

      THe YES campaign will not be very visible in the MSM (unless they drop a clanger of course) until the official campaign starts and coverage has to be more balanced. That's not their fault and there is nothing that can be done about it. It was exactly the same in the run up to the 2011 election.

      YES are however very active on the streets and online all across Scotland. What more can they/we do?

    61. Bugger (the Panda) says:

      What puzzles me is that Dennis Canavan is a time bomb to explode in the Labour heart.

       

      As I live outside the UK I have to ask this question, has ever gone head-to-head with Brewer or Darling on TV?

       

      I'd pay for tickets to that Darling savaging

    62. muttley79 says:

      Ach, I am just a worrier.  Got plenty to worry about at present…

      @Bugger

      Yes, I would like to see Dennis Canavan have a greater profile. He would be our very own Dennis the Menace.

    63. Bugger (the Panda) says:

      GP Walrus says:

      10 May, 2013 at 6:51 pm

       

      The BBC may have to button it but the Hootsman will go down fighting out their erse. The Herald will migrate slowly to YES, the Sun will jump when they read the runes and the Daily Rectum may just soldier on but tone it down.

       

      The BBC will be defenestrated post independence and I would like to see a more Channel 4 approach to national braoadcasting. I believe that talks could have already been made, perhaps for them to move up to Edinburgh.

       

      Then again I might be talking keich.

       

      I am only a deluded Panda anyway

        

    64. Bill McLean says:

      I'm worried, but I am a half glass full type anyway. For some weeks now on this blog we have been saying we could expect a bounce from the dreadful behaviour of Westminster, Johann Lamont, Anas Sarwar and UKIP and almost anything else. What has happened. If Westminster and SLAB can perform as badly as they are doing and YES is getting nothing we should be very worried. The only consolation I can find is that it is still a way to go – but look at what the union has lined up for next year – celebration of beginning of WW1 (a disgrace) which will appeal to many of the not so easy of thinking and I would put money on them overshadowing Bannockburn Day and hijacking the Commonwealth Games. I am worried!!! Help!

    65. muttley79 says:

      @Bill Mclean

       

      I'm worried, but I am a half glass full type anyway. For some weeks now on this blog we have been saying we could expect a bounce from the dreadful behaviour of Westminster, Johann Lamont, Anas Sarwar and UKIP and almost anything else. What has happened. If Westminster and SLAB can perform as badly as they are doing and YES is getting nothing we should be very worried. The only consolation I can find is that it is still a way to go – but look at what the union has lined up for next year – celebration of beginning of WW1 (a disgrace) which will appeal to many of the not so easy of thinking and I would put money on them overshadowing Bannockburn Day and hijacking the Commonwealth Games. I am worried!!! Help!

       

      I agree.  I am worried as well.  However, I worry about being worried!

       

    66. Boorach says:

      @ Laura

       

      All the best things are!

    67. Dee says:

      The bbc never ran with this poll, which proves beyond all reasonable doubt that it must be a piece of nonsense..I work offshore and do straw polls on different rigs and it is always a majority vote FOR independence, 

      As for this particular poll, I would just bin it, I would say true polls are in the high 40% region for independence..

       

       

       

    68. Laura says:

      If you are worried about the polls, Why don't each one of us who can, go out and ask 10 or 20 folk at random and report back here.( I appreciate that some of you are abroad), but I think the rest of us are from different areas throughout Scotland and it might give us a better picture.

      Straight forward: Should Scotland be an Independent Country? Yes/No/DK

      Just a thought.

       

    69. GP Walrus says:

      Panda,

      You may be talking keich (though I don't think so) but you have the coolest gravatar 🙂

    70. TYRAN says:

      As usual, there will be a poll showing No under 50% and requiring around a 5% swing to Yes but it will be AWOL in the usual media. 

    71. Laura says:

      10 May, 2013 at 5:44 pm

      Horacesaysyes and HandandShrimp

      Bet you're the kind of guys who would touch an electric fence, just to see if it hurt

       

      Nah, I'm only happy to mess about on computers. In the real world, I'm happy to leave things well alone! 🙂

    72. Bugger (the Panda) says:

      Thanks GP

       

      I was worried that I might be confused with a certain Badger.

    73. Juteman says:

      Us Scots can be a miserable lot.

      No! is often our answer to anything.

      Come the voting booth, there is nobody asking us any annoying questions, and we can tick the box we want.

    74. Bugger (the Panda) says:

      GP Walrus

       

      How I came to be called Bugger.

       

      http://subrosa-blonde.blogspot.fr/2009/12/message-from-b-panda.html

       

       

    75. southernscot says:

      Ask yourself this, how committed do you think the 30% or so YES vote is?

      They have waited a lifetime to vote YES, and the YES vote will come out to vote come hell or high water.

      Now the No vote, apart for a smallish core of die hard unionist will not get be able to get its vote out as easy and there are many soft no's and undecided.

      If a 60% turn out where to happen they would already have 50% YES vote

      A bit simplistic but you get the idea. The Yes vote is a hard Yes and will almost all turnout but the no can't say the same.

    76. GP Walrus says:

      Bugger,

      What a moving and tragic personal story, yet you have risen through adversity. Thanks for sharing.

      I've been to Shanghai a couple of times – it is astounding.

    77. Albalha says:

      @Laura

      Quite like your idea, it'd need to be coordinated, where are you?

    78. velofello says:

      It will take some kind of person to say no to independence as they stand, pencil in hand at the polling booth.,

      The economic case is without question in favour of independence.

      The opportunity to live in a social/democratic egalitarian society is only available via independence.

      The freedom to choose whether or not to be involved in armed conflict is only available via insependence.

    79. scottish_skier says:

      Muttley

      This is not about Labour/Lamont etc. It's about that final leap and that is tied to what happens in the UK. Any UKIP effect will manifest over weeks to a few months at minimum. And it should manifest, quite strongly too. That and what appears to be an increasingly certain UK exit from the EU led by the Tories and fuelled by UKIP.

      Scottish electorate are stubbornly small c conservative. They often wait to the very last minute to play their hand. They often say 'No' right up to the moment they say 'Yes', just like in 2011, burgers that they are. Lots of patience is needed.

    80. Bugger (the Panda) says:

      Yes, life is not what one would expect or want.

       

      Then again I have scored often in the Merchant City on Friday nights.

       

       

      Jeeeeeeeeeeeeez

       

       

      Is Alastair Darling one of mine.

       

      Christ no.

       

      Sorry, so sorry to the YES camp and Scotland.

       

       

    81. cirsium says:

      muttley79 says:

      10 May, 2013 at 6:15 pm

      "Is anyone else worried that the Yes campaign appears to have the visibility of undercover SAS?"

      If you were supporting a campaign based on FUD, would you report YES activity?  

    82. scottish_skier says:

      Oh and I added another Yes today at work.

      Irish graduate just started with us. All I had to do was tell her she could vote if she registered, so wasn't hard. No persuasion needed for some reason…

    83. Joybell says:

      I have to agree that the poll looks very dodgy, and as for the front page of the Times, its really just psychological warfare.(The Scots apparently have fallen in love with Trident!)

      The thing is, its probably directed at the strong yes voters in order to de-motivate them.  We mustn't let that happen.

      My husband has the right idea, just treat it as background noise, but its not easy. 

    84. Bill McLean says:

      Thanks for some of your view on my, and muttley79's concerns. Nothing will stop me from voting YES next year and on a daily basis I try to talk to people politely and informatively about the benefits of Independence. Unfortunately though i've travelleda fair bit of the world and seen the British at work in colonies and some now ex-colonies. I'm not trying to create an argument here because the vast majority on this blog want Independence, but i've seen the b…..ds at work and to be honest at one time I believed in Britain. Over the years in various places I began to have doubts especially when a Greek Cypriot gave me a bit of the history of  Cyprus as a British colony which much research and reading confirmed the honesty of his comment. I remember when in Malta, post Independence, a group of Britons in the village of Marsaskala, attempted to close the road except to their residences. I've seen the way they treat Chinese in HK and Singapore, Singhalese and Tamils in Sri Lanka and others in other places. I fear their duplicity and dishonesty which they cover with the most astonishing hypocrisy. Now they are treating us like their colonial underlings – it's obvious from some of the posts I read elsewhere. There's a badness inherent in racism and feelings of superiority and i'm  worried!!!

       

       

       

    85. Jim Mitchell says:

      All I know is, that if a lot of folk, self included, had paid too much attention to opinion polls over the years, then Holyrood would still be under unionist control as would ever local council in Scotland!

    86. the rough bounds says:

      @Jim Mitchell

      You're right Jim. I'm sick of them. I've seen them being played out in front of us for over 50 years. Manipulated figures, fiddled, worded in such and such a way to extract the answer that they want.

      Ignore them: 2011 should have shown us all by now that they are bogus and not to be trusted

      I will be voting Yes in 2014. Anyone who doesn't deserves all they get from the British.

    87. Peninsula says:

      Don't forget, the questions and sequence/routing are loaded in favour of whoever is commissioning the poll. I know this for a fact. Also, the respondent is deliberatly not told who the survey is for. Even if they ask, they can't be told.

    88. Dee says:

      It was Bloomberg who done the Trident survey,  but on the subject of polls, are they trying to tell us that no one has changed over to Yes from Dont Know or even from a NO opinion in the last year, it just doesn't stand up, it is just not possible to have all this campaigning, all the leaflets, all the "Cybernatting" and we still couldn't convince one voter to vote Yes,  They really do think we are too stupid.  Vote Yes……

    89. Laura says:

      Caesar!lha says:

      10 May, 2013 at 8:03 pm

      @Laura

      Quite like your idea, it'd need to be coordinated, where are you?

      East Loch Lomond

      PS did posting just get a whole lot more complicated, or is it just me

    90. Laura says:

      Oops sorry, posting just fine. I tried to make the comment before putting in my details.

    91. Ann says:

      I was at the very well attended YesScotlandDunfermline meeting last  Monday and I have to say that the Yes Camp have the ace up their sleeve with Denis Canavan.  Better Together or whatever they call themselves will be kicking themselves that he is not on their side.

      Putting politics aside. He loves his country more than his political beliefs and in getting him out and about the country with the many others joining the campaign the result can only be good for the YES camp.

      I was also heartened to hear the the big Unions are now starting to back the campaign and will be getting the news out to their members.

      Better still Johann can talk all she wants, her own MSP's don't like her.



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