Some things stay the same
New polling today:
Scotland vs the Tories, with Scottish Labour on the wrong team. As it ever was.
In truth, it’s still closer than most sane people anywhere else in the world would believe. Labour’s tiny handful of remaining voters are split almost down the middle about whether being an isolated xenophobic country with a smashed economy is scarier than taking responsibility for our own affairs like normal people.
Make no mistake, those Labour voters know Brexit will be disastrous.
And they don’t like their options. Astonishingly, not much more than a third of them are willing to say they think their own leader would be a better UK Prime Minister than Boris Johnson. They have only very slightly more faith in him than SNP voters do.
Indeed, if forced to choose, a quarter of them would actively pick Boris Johnson over Jeremy Corbyn.
Tory voters, meanwhile, are delusional.
And nobody cares what the Lib Dems think, as usual.
That’s where we are now, folks.
Good old reliable Labour in Scotland, always got the back of… erm …. Labour in England.
Still waiting (8.00am) to hear anything about this on Good Morning Scotland.
“Still waiting (8.00am) to hear anything about this on Good Morning Scotland.”
It was on at about 8.35am.
Labour, the Scottish zombie party…..They don’t know (or care) that they’re dead, they just keep stumbling on
.
The tide has finally changed.
Not totally sure of the veracity of Lord Ashcroft polls, but this makes a fascinating read for Monday morning.
Ruthie can no longer Moothie that there is NO DEMAND For IndyRef2, when one of her own Tory Toffs conducts polls reaching that very conclusion.
In summary, the democratic wish is…
– That IndtRef2 goes ahead and…
– That the majority of Scots now want Independence.
Thank you Boris. The git that keeps on gitting.
Thanks for flagging it up Stu.
What a mess – every bit of this picture is depressing to me.
What will it change, with anyone who has the power to enact any change? Absolutely nothing, I fear 🙁
Before the angels chorus and the dimming of the light they will pray & cry out to an SNP God !
Aye …. Shouting
NEVER, NEVER, NEVER !
1 in 8 “Yes” voters in 2014 would now vote “No”? Seriously?
“1 in 8 “Yes” voters in 2014 would now vote “No”? Seriously?”
Yes. Not everyone is the same as you. People change their minds about all sorts of things for all sorts of reasons. Most obviously, in our case, Yes Leavers.
Still too many I’m alright Jocks . Only when the reality of Brexit hits will they shift.
It’s all about their personal wealth. So when that’s affected , wether it’s pensioners or Labour “Socialists” they will move to the least risk option.
For most Yes people money is not the main reason for independence . Independence is going to be the only way we can find to preserve our culture. It’s now a matter of identity survival!
The Tories & Unionists will come at us hard now. We need something like the billboards
“led by Donkey’s“ strategically placed.
And we need the Yes movement to get a Troll Hunter Guide to counter the oncoming Yoon twitter storm.
Blockers set to malky.
The charts suggest equal weights for each subgroup. This is misleading.
For example, in the IndyRef question, the bar for 91% No (Conservatives) is higher than :84% Yes (SNP). in fact, the Yes-bar represents more people than the No-bar. Going bt the 2917 electiin, I think that the correct proportions should be about 24:30.
Our time is not far away now. Patience and active build up until Brexit is clear.
Maybe the route just has to be unclear until then ? The actual shape of big struggles is often obscure until they happen.
The independence referendum should be held on 31 October, and the day should be made a holiday to increase turnout.The possibility that BoJo may choose the day for a general election should not put us off, and should be held regardless of whether the Westminster regime persists with a no-deal Brexit or rescinds article 50. We do not want to have to go through this all again at some future date.
There is a tide in the affairs of men, &c., &c.
So! Even with all the vows, bribes and lies Independence is in front!
Alister Jack with all the courtesy of an arrogant toff on the steps of Bute House pushing past Nicola to spoil the photo op and the right wing press blame Nicola. Small but significant point. It shows that Jack is out to destroy devolution so let us give him independence.
Scotland is going places, it is rejoining the world.
Get rid of Labour. Take the fight to the Tories. The SNP will win.
Independence support goes up 1% a year as the elderly keel over and the youngsters come on board.
The best time to have an IndyRef is when it can be won. Not in the middle of turmoil. A GE election. Then an IndyRef, One campaign at a time. The Tories will not last until October, A majority of one. They will collapse soon especially if there is no Brexit. Hardly likely. It would crash the economy.
In the US 16,000 a year die from shooting, 26,000 total murdered. More than any terrorist attack etc. Yet the US are paranoid about terrorists. The enemy is within. Some claim it is their own government, They arm themselves against their own government,
Some claim the US does not need socialism because it is socialist. The first communist was a Catholic priest.
The US spends far too much on weaponry. The highest pro rata in the world. $611Billion. A third of total world spend. More than enough to alleviate poverty. The multimillion companies should pay their taxes. $Billionaires give to charity but use illegal practices and evade taxes. Trump has not started WW111 yet.
Strangely feeling glass half empty – firstly, how is support for Independence not much much higher? Boris, Brexit, ultra Right Wing cabinet, etc.
Secondly – is this our ‘Johnson Bounce’ as it’s the first proper poll since he came into office and we’ll revert to previous normal of mid to high 40s?
Hopefully not, but I was honestly expecting 60% plus.
That said, I’d bite your hand off (and my own) for 52% yes in the real thing.
Batten down the hatches people.
The Unionist smear machine will go into a frenzied overdrive. Expect all the hackneyed old disinformation alongside a lot of frantic new fabrications.
There will be attempts to goad independence-minded people into making intemperate responses, there will be false-flag accounts to make outlandish and damaging comments.
As difficult as they make it, it’s essential to rise above provocation, and stay classy.
I see the POTUS is saying the mass shootings in the USA are caused by mentally ill people and not by white supremacists. Perhaps the mass cliff divers in the United Kingdom follow the same trends.
Oh! Wait up Prof whit’s his name has just come on Radio Jockland let’s see whit he says aboot it. Ah! He says we will get the occasional poll sayin yes an the occasional poll sayin naw!
So there you go – just what Rev Stu said first, “Some things never change”. I wonder what Kaye wi wan e’e has to say aboot it?
The most significant result is the one where they ask if people expect Scotland to be independent. The Yes expectant people constitute a significantly larger majority than the how would you vote in IndyRef2 result.
These people are the Indy Curious, the ones whose doors are open to campaigners, who will hear us out and who want to discuss the issues. They are also the ones who will come to Yes when the polls continue to show a Yes majority.
The snowballing won’t happen quickly, it will take more polls from more companies showing a Yes majority and it being discussed, in the media, on the streets, in the pubs and coffee shops.
Wear your badges people and be prepared to talk to folk. I’ve been approached in the supermarket by people noting my badges. Before I had to take them off for professional reasons. I limit myself to a Scottish CND lapel pin, a coded Yes symbol.
Remember it’s nearly Hiroshima day, check out banthebomb.org for a commemoration near you.
Seems to me that if a dodgy Ashcroft poll suggests a win for yes next time of 52/48 then chances are the result would indeed be Yes but with a much higher percentage than his poll suggests. Bring it on Nicola. We need the lifeboat now!!
Not too bad at all. 🙂
Given that there has been an unprecedented and unrelenting campaign continued by the meeja and their chaintuggers in Westminster for the past five years.
Still. Take what you can get when it comes to getting your message out in today’s media. The myth of ‘no appetite’ spun by Conservative, Labour and Libdem parliamentarians alike, is busted.
At this stage, given the events, we ought to have pro independence around 60%.
Interesting support for Corbyn among SNPers. Must be the old Labour strand in the party feeling nostalgia for its sandals and beards leftist roots.
Quite illogical as Corbyn is manifestly an English Unionist and Johnson’s politics would be more advantageous to the cause.
I do hope this does not portend post General Election SNP-Labour alliances.
It cannot be said too often, it is not the purpose of Scottish Nationalism to save the British state, and England, from folly.
The crisis at the children’s hospital in Edinburgh has the potential to make a serious dent in the SNP’s standing.
The BBC have already grabbed the opportunity and the Scottish press donkey pack have followed by promoting the comments of a Unison union official who says it may have to be “ripped” down and for good measure throws in personal comments about his own family. The source for these comments – gossip and hearsay, no professional opinion.
The SNP need to say a lot more than they are doing as others will fill the silence and it is a gift to the opposition.
donald says:
5 August, 2019 at 8:41 am
Strangely feeling glass half empty – firstly, how is support for Independence not much much higher? Boris, Brexit, ultra Right Wing cabinet, etc.
I think most people currently don’t see any Brexit impact in their lives. This will change rapidly if we crash out on 31 October – food shortages, medicine shortages, job losses, small farms going bankrupt.
Then there is the impact of the right wing nut jobs, following orders from Trump and bannon, taking control of the government and readying to roll back the state. NHS sold off, tax cuts for the rich, fewer civil rights, employment rights, etc. Once the true fascist hue of the UK government becomes apparent, things will swing towards indy.
I see Roger Bootle – Thatcherite economist – is in the Torygraph today saying the collapse of the pound sterling is worth it, because only a few British tourists going abroad will be adversely affected. Doesn’t seem to get it that we import most of our food and medicines and these are going to cost way more, and that’s without the impact of tariffs. To say nothing of other manufactured goods.
Personally I think the polls are encouraging.
After all I believe the Independence referendum will have the full weight of EU citizens behind us, we will have many pro EU behind us as well as being able to encourage people who don’t normally vote to come out.
We have the Young Adults who in the main reject Unionist rhetoric.
Labour voters will have to consider another decade or so of tory/DUP/ lib dem rule
With tighter controls on postal votes and such like and I think we can win!
Numbers please – otherwise it’s like a cosmetic advert “ 77% of 58 people voted such and such “ !
1) 12% of 2014 Yes and 10% of No have changed their minds. Diff 8%, thus the overall shift from 2014.
2) 8% of SNP voters will vote No, and 13% don’t want IndyRef2.
3) 15% of SNP voters would chose UK over EU.
I think in these we are seeing Yes-Leave folks. I know two who have stopped being activists, one has dropped membership, although they say they are still SNP voters. They really are upset about the Indy in EU approach.
Hopefully, as the UK option looks worse and worse than the EU one, they will rethink.
This looks like a large group. Having voted Yes previously, and still voting SNP, they need more attention and focus than any other IMO.
footsoldier,
Re the Hospital in Edinburgh
Crisis? – stop using unionist rhetoric. UNISON has close links with the labour party.
I wonder if UNISON will call on their members who constructed the hospital to be sacked?. How about fellow UNITE members?
What about the consultants and Building Control officers of the council who are members of the UNION. Shold they be sacked for not carrying out their job properly if they passed the work as ok?
Still it is conjecture ably blown up by the bcc scotchland and their Labour contacts. The drain(s) will be sorted, the ventilation will be sorted and waterson will move on to blame global warming on the SNP.
This is why I detest the LABOUR PARTY in Scotland . The promotion of non-entities of people like Leonard (UNISON) is just one reason. Remember Leornard’s partner part of a UNISON committee complaining over something in Lanarkshire (Question asked at Holyrood)
UNISON is being used by the Labour party by a small clique of labourite unionists.
galamcennalath
I’ve known English pensioners, who moved to Scotland, voted SNP but voted No in IndyRef1.
There will be people who agree with SNP social policies but can’t move to Indy.
The Johnson government will further alienate Scotland. On brexit. On devo & democratic rights. With SE England the recipient of far more than its share of government spending.
A 4% lead for Yes after just a few days of Johnson will do for starters.
And Scotland continues to move towards Independence 🙂
So some are disappointed the yes/no gap isn’t bigger.
I’m more disappointed in this.
8% of SNP voters don’t want an independent Scotland.
In the final chart, 67% of Tories say Scotland will remain in the UK.
I suspect this is because they are allowing for vote rigging!!
@Giving Goose,
Correct. People enjoy the SNP mitigating for the worst excesses of Westminster and thus vote for them. Having your cake and eating it I suppose comes to mind.
Perhaps if people had to endure full austerity it may concentrate their minds on a different solution.
The SNP are caught in the middle.
Who are these SNP members who don’t want independence? What are they doing in the SNP if they don’t want independence.
52% 48% for Yes is smaller than Remain led in many 2016 EUref polls so no guarantee Yes would win even with No Deal Brexit. More Leavers still back No than Remainers back Yes. Plus in the second Quebec independence referendum from Canada in 1995 Yes led most final polls but No won 51% to 49% as Don’t Knows went No, Yes is not over 50% including Don’t Knows in this poll
Attacking NHS and Education does not win votes. People support them.
The Tories cut Education £6Billion a year and NHS £4Billion a year from 2015 to 2020. The Scottish Gov has to mitigate the cuts. Scottish budget cut 10% a year. Now £3Billion less.
Scotland raises £60Billion in tax revenues. More pro rata than the rest of the UK. UK raises £661Billion. Scotland loses £20Billion to Westminster mismanagement. £4Billion Oil revenues. Too high taxes when price had fallen. Losing 120,000 jobs. £3Billion tax evasion. £1Billion Trident and redundant weaponry. £5Billion which could be borrowed to increase growth. £4Billion on loan repayments not borrowed or spent in Scotland. Fishing (discards), farming (£160million) and Oil sector mismanaged. UK H&S Laws not enforced. MUP introduced will save lives and monies.
Illegal wars, tax evasion and financial fraud.
Scotland would be far better off Independent.
Iraq, Dunblane and Lockerbie kept secret for years under the Official Secrets Act.
There are SNP voters who do not support Independence. The SNP rules support Independence.
I would never ignore a poll
but I don’t treat them as representative either because they do not provide proof of how they went about deciding who to ask and when to ask the questions they ask
Then there is the use of percentages when in fact it would be more honest to just tell us the actual numbers and allow us to work out the percentages ourselves
Often the number of people asked a question is so small it makes the poll an irrelevance
The way they publish these poll results so widely and so quickly should lead readers to conclude that it is all part of the propaganda piped from England to Scotland on a Daily basis
“I would never ignore a poll
but I don’t treat them as representative either because they do not provide proof of how they went about deciding who to ask and when to ask the questions they ask
Then there is the use of percentages when in fact it would be more honest to just tell us the actual numbers and allow us to work out the percentages ourselves”
(1) They DO tell you the actual numbers.
(2) Why doesn’t anyone understand how polls work? You ask a group of people and then you weight their responses. So if 60% of the people who actually respond say they voted Tory in the last election, when only (for example) 45% of people in that election actually DID vote Tory, then to get representative numbers you weight down your Tory respondents by a quarter.
You do that across a range of characteristics, and you end up with results that while arrived at by essentially a process of estimation and adjustment, have an uncanny habit of coming out remarkably close to what happens in reality.
Never trust the Polls in tight margins.
That hospital pass finally arrived for Jean Freeman this morning but I think she dealt with it as well as she could.
I heard Prof Curtis expertplaining the poll doing his best not to frighten the horses but admitting that there has been a move to YES. “London must watch out” was as far as he would venture.
Early morning but all the FTSE’s indicate another bad day for the stocks and shares….could I be paid in Europe?
Shallows and summer and all that … but it explains why the BritNats have been increasingly hysterical recently!
As The Rev says, this poll show core BritNat voters as delusional. The fear among BritNat leaders is their supporters begin to see reality.
The remaining Labour voters in Scotland are the die hard follow the commands that the leadership issue. They are blind and deaf to the reality of what the branch office has become. They even voted Tory when Dugdale instructed them.
What do we do? We keep talking, every one of us who supports Independence.It was true in 2014 and is true today. We only have to win over one person each.
Euro’s (tablet called HAL) 🙁
Two relatives on in-law/out-law side came over from Labour to SNP about ten years ago (maybe 2007 actually)…..anyway, both voted No in 2014. I love them, but these people are slow to the realisation, but they do get there. Both would now vote Yes.
They’re fearties, labours full of fearties, the ones with any balls sold out their principles and sided with the Tories – what a price to pay just to hate on Scotland – and is why, by and by, they are so angry.
Just keep chipping away at the fearties and we will romp home – forget the 25%……oh, aye, and bribe the elderly – all the vast majority of them care about is not being old and poor, which is fair enough.
link to leftfootforward.org
I have no idea what Labour think so it is comforting to see that current Labour voters are in the same boat. I live in what used to be a rock solid Labour seat. Can’t recall the last time I saw them on the streets or involved in any sort of visible activity. They are a hollowed out ghost party that stands for nothing but bitter entitlement.
Elsewhere I listened to radio shortbread news at 9 this morning, primarily to hear why the US gunmen were shooting. However, what I got was Freeman should resign and nuclear submarines will have to level the new sick kids hospital to fix a drain or something. It didn’t take very long for me to remember why it is months since I last listened to this tripe nor very long to flip back to Absolute Rock.
I think the mainstream media must have got an early sight of the Ashcroft poll, since there have been an absolute tsunami of SNP BAD stories this morning.
They are shiting themselves now, and it will only get worse as they throw everything at us to deter a Yes vote in Indyref2.
We have them on the run, but, their retreat will see a scorched earth policy towards Scotland.
Kevin Cargill Al-Stuart, think this poll was conducted by Panelbase either that or Panelbase asked me the same questions late last week. One thing I would say about the Panel base poll was that there was a “glitch” on one of the questions where I had to select an option I disagreed with to progress to the next question !
unionist journalists today
” of course we expected this “
I’ve had a ‘discussions’ with Labour activists at Polling Places. When challenged on Labour’s voting record in Westminster they either slither out of the discussion(e.g. by spotting a ‘friend’ across the road) or switch to another topic. They don’t seem able to admit to themselves what Labour MPs did.
When challenged as to why, after decades of Labour administrations, Scotland still has dreadful areas of deprivation. I have never had an answer on that one.
When challenged on why Labour and the Unions conspired to pay women less than men in Glasgow for decades they have no answer.
Their best response is shutting up and pretending you are not there whenever they are challenged on these and other points.
They support Labour but cannot tell me why.
And just in case you think I am being agressive towards them, believe me I am not. I am giving them a chance to respond to legitimate questions.
Slowly but surely the momentum is clearly moving in favour of independence. I believe it will continue to do so. Spring in the steps today.
Ken500 you do not have to be a member of the SNP to vote for them you diddy, I know A couple of folk who vote SNP for good governence but are staunch Unionists
John Walsh:
Still too many I’m alright Jocks. Only when the reality of Brexit hits will they shift. It’s all about their personal wealth. So when that’s affected, weather it’s pensioners or Labour “Socialists” they will move to the least risk option.
You are spot on John, I have said all along that we need a hard Brexit and folk need to start hurting before they will consider voting for Independence as they will be looking for an escape route to ease their pain.
HandandShrimp says:
They are certainly not the party which fronted BetterTogether in 2014. That entity got the stuffing knocked out of it.
Importantly, they aren’t in any position to be the front ranks of BetterTogether2 in IndyRef2. As they stand even 40% of their residual voters are now Yes!
Nothing about the Ashcroft poll on the BBC news pages. Not even on the Scotland Politics pages.
This is a landmark poll not for the fact that Yes is in the lead as we have seen these before but because of who produced it.
Lord Aschcroft was the first to show the start of the SNP lanslide in 2015 and to my mind he is trying to position his polling company as the one that is first to detect turning points. Usually where he goes the other polling companies start to follow.
Its also a gamechanger as he is a Tory producing polls that directly contradict the unionist line in Scotland. This poll can’t be dismissed as an Indepdence friendly pollster.
No there’s nothing about the Ashcroft poll on the BBC website news. Top item is, of course, the new hospital “farce” which MAY have to be ripped down, according to a trade union official.
Sheer panic – demands that parliament be recalled and Jeanne Freeman sacked because this hospital should have opened in July and it’s now…let me see – oh – 4th August when they made these demands.
This shift of the polls into positive territory is certainly causing the media horses to bolt.
huge poll result.
independence is coming.
timing will be however be key to ensure victory.
By backing EU membership (with a defined and clear position) the SNP are on right side of the argument.
laukat think this poll was conducted by Panelbase on behalf of Lord Ashcroft, either that or Panelbase asked the same questions late last week. I thought Ashcroft owned Yougov, wonder why he did not use them or maybe Panelbase did ask the same questions as a sort of attempt to establish a base line.
[…] Read More… […]
Oh no. HYFUD is back. And his arse is squeaking.
Nice to see the polls moving.
The longer Nicola waits the better. The farmers need to be slaughtering their sheep and jobs lost before the real swing will occur.
As usual this morning the BBC was;
” There is a school of thought that they might have to rip it down.” A union rep (labour) (the same people that underpaid women for 20 years in Glasgow)
Deaf children are being “left behind” in Scottish education
Votes for prisoners – Annie Wells criticised the move for setting a “precedent”, saying that prisoners did not “deserve” to vote in future elections. She said: “The fact this is being done without any proper debate or consultation is particularly unacceptable. Its EU law accepted by the UK
Hospitals in England set to receive £850m revealed
The BBC is a complete joke
Yep must be an election coming
Remember that 3.6 million voted in 2014. Each % point gained is approx 3,600 individuals. So a 7% move from 45% to 52% is nearly a quarter of a million people.
One swallow does not a Summer make but the direction is slowly moving forward which is what counts.
The question I keep asking myself is, “Could we be even further ahead?” Another 2-3 points?
I can understand the SNP being reluctant to call the Indyref date while the Brexit chaos changes from day to day and nobody really has a clue whether the Johnson crew will actually do seppuku or not..!?
The SNP/SG are doing a grand job of running the country with the meagre devolved powers and money that they’re allowed to have. That doesn’t or at least shouldn’t stop the SNP being a bit more assertive (not aggressive) when giving interviews, speeches, or on panels, hustings etc..
Answering the questions but slipping in information about sovereignity, currency, independence of the SNHS. Not taking crap or lies, calling out rubbish face to face.
Silence is NOT golden.
AS was good at things like this, no nonsense or being talked over. Get the message out.
The SNP is IMHO too often, too nice whilst the Brit Nats are a bunch of scheming, devious shameless ba****ds.
Which is why they often win…!
Were 16/17 year olds and EU nationals included in the Ashcroft poll?
Cmonindy
…36,000
Twitter saying poll didn’t include 16/17 year olds nor EU citizens.
If true, the real figure for Yes support could be much higher.
Remember the ‘leaked’ alleged figure of 57% from the WM secret poll recently? That might be closer to the truth!
For those of you wanting the Ashcroft poll in full:
link to lordashcroftpolls.com
Ashcroft … “A majority of voters up to the age of 49 said they would vote Yes, including 62% of those aged 18 to 24.”
Which implies 16-17 were not polled.
Well he could not exactly come out and say the union was still winning after 5 years of unionist chaos and lies.
I am surprised they gave us a 2% lead instead of a 1% they must have thought that would be more believable.
Polls are so when they rig an election the stupid public go ah it must have been the right result as the polls said that is what would roughly happen,nice way of covering electoral fraud.
So we lose the next referendum 51% to 49% in a unionist come back.
Am i the only person who is wondering why we take this piece of tory shit as the truth?
Or has alarm bells ringing that they ARE going screw us over again.
I’m looking at the first 3 tables and wondering on the accuracy..SNP 5,13 and 15- Don’t want to be independent, Don’t want a referendum, and remain part of the UK respectively.
On the surface these don’t tie up,
I’ve probably missed something
Has he not included the Scottish Lib Dems and greens in this poll – if not, why not?
I recall a Conversation I had about 10 months ago with my cousin a Lib Dem Councillor (in the N.East) – forget the subject now but it was a Scottish politics matter and she was genuinely concerned that the SNP would do a deal with the Tories.
I was astonished that she could even contemplate that as a possibility and told her so, but being polite, did not finish my sentence that I thought …. her party was more likely to do a deal with the Tories than we ever would..
Now I see Jo Swinson is on her soap box with her false sense of power and impending prime-minister-hood ruling out doing a deal with the SNP if it means getting the Damoclesian threat of Brexit lifted from our shoulders but could possibly make Indy ref 2 easier.
Doh! No Brexit means technically no mandate for Indy Ref 2.
Maybe she doesn’t really want no deal – she has sided with the Tories before – maybe she just wants Boris out of the way and then it will be her time and she can blame the SNP for a No deal Brexit because if they hadn’t been trying to get Independence, she could have done a deal with them and got rid of some marginal Tory MP’s …
it’s the first fortnight in August, the English ‘Fair’.
Tens of millions of John and Jane Bulls are off on their holidays, many millions experiencing first hand what ‘third country status’ means already, 3 months before the Great British Leap Off Beachy Head on 31st of October.
One Brit pound won’t even buy one euro on holiday.
Everything is up in price, and the Whingeing Pomms will stagger back from the Costas in mid August moaning about 7 euro pints of Watney’s and Boddingtons in Tenerife and Benedorm.
In the normal course of events, you don’t need to get your skull crushed with a blow from a 16 pound sledge hammer (Imperial) to be aware that that’s got to hurt, but for some reason a helluva lot of Brit Nats are still unaware of what is about to happen in three short months; the total destruction of their precious Union.
Perhaps some enterprising promoter will organise Underground Parties on the eve of Brexit, with plucky Londoners urged to invoke the wartime spirit by descending into the tunnels below London with their sleeping bags, thermos flasks of milky tea, and join in a Vera Lynn Singalong:
‘We’ll (Not) Meet Again’?
There will be (True) Blue Birds Over The White Cliffs Of Dover’?
In world history, has there ever been mass hysteria like England’s Brexit Suicide Pact?
This poll was commissioned by a Tory lord.
It must be really dire then.
I look forward to Davidson and leotard responses.
It’s comin’ yet for a’ that.
Ironically a section 30 may be the best hope for bojo- where he calls the shots and excludes EU nationals and 16/17 year olds. Even then the union is finished.
@Lenny Hartley
I’ve not seen anything to suggest who actually conducted the poll. From the little information on Ashcrofts site showing the tables it doesn’t look the standard format panelbase provide and there’s nothing there to suggest who he used. I don’t think Ashcroft owns yougov. He has made great play on his methods of analysing the data the polling company provide so in effect he is trying build a reputation that his method is better at detecting change.
Also if its true 16/17 years old have not been polled it would suggest its not one of the regular polling companies although not impossible that Ashcrofts gave them particular instructions. Also suggests that with 16/17 included would be more like 53Y/47N
This nonsense about new Scottish NHS hospitals is a boil that needs lanced.
Does anyone actually think the First Minister or her Ministers
Design and fit ventilation systems?
Only professional companies with all the necessary experience and qualifications
We’re allowed to tender for the work.
If anything is wrong then it’s down to the experts who work on these
Types of projects day in and day out.
The Unions blindly accuse the SNP government of malpractice
In hope of resuscitating the corpse that is the Labour Party.
They need to look at the financial waste Labour has put Scotland through
With the Edinburgh Trams fiasco, the construction of Holyrood, etc.
Where was all this bad mouthing of a political party when Labour Councillors
Spent fortunes over a 10 year period to prevent equal pay for women.
Where are the Unions praises for SNP for running the best NHS in the UK,
For paying our Nurses etc more than in Labour Wales or Tory England.
The Unions are about to be buried along with Labour going by these actions.
@Kevin Cargill says: 5 August, 2019 at 8:49 am:
” … Seems to me that if a dodgy Ashcroft poll suggests a win for yes next time of 52/48 then chances are the result would indeed be Yes but with a much higher percentage than his poll suggests. Bring it on Nicola. We need the lifeboat now!!”
Noo bide yer time, Kevin, wait to hear whit James Kelly has to say, (no – not that James Kelly, our James Kelly, at:-
link to scotgoespop.blogspot.com
One thing I’m sure of is that if a poll’s results can be skewed the MSM, and in particular the UK broadcasters, will twist it till it isn’t recognisable, but Scot goes pop will untangle it for us.
Al-Stuart said at 8:05 am:
“…..Ruthie can no longer Moothie that there is NO DEMAND For IndyRef2, when one of her own Tory Toffs conducts polls reaching that very conclusion……”
I’ll just add a little bit more info from Wikipedia for readers
” Political party:
Conservative Party “.
ScottieDog says:
The Tories (especially post Brexit) would demand no EU nationals voting.
To counter, I understand the SG want the franchise to be extended to anyone 16 and above resident in Scotland regardless of nationality.
This could be the basis of the first legal battle, who gets to vote.
The BritNats probably have only one thing left – delaying the inevitable.
Apparently the opll did not include 16 and 17 year olds or EU nationals so on that basis alone YES would actually be a lot nearer 60% at an election.
The key of course is getting the support out and I suspect our support would be easier to activate than the other side’s at a referendum.
@galamcennalath
The unionist will go for the ‘blood and soil’ option if they think it gives them an advantage, at the same time condemn us as narrow minded nationalists. The franchise should be the same as last time, if they want to restrict the vote then it has to Scots born and living here who only get to vote. If they want the blood and soil option it has to be the full one, not some gerrymandering to produce a no vote.
If it is true that under 18’s and EU’s were excluded then Yes must be at least 55%.
BBC reticent to produce this poll, it would have been online immediately if it was a No majority. They are no doubt perusing the results at the editors meeting deciding how to present this as a setback for indyref.
Would genuinely appreciate a constructive answer from anyone who has a good knowledge and understanding of politics in Scotland, but even if these polls were showing support for a referendum on Scottish Independence sitting at 90%, how does that help us if Westminster just keeps saying, ‘Now is not the time’?
Effigy says 11;40
watched this fool of a Union rep on the news and formed the opinion that these people would have opened this Hospital in spite of the risk to patients and staff. Well done SNP for keeping it shut.
The question is just how many of those Labour voters, adamant they won’t vote for indy, will vote for indy when the time comes?
Nearly 12.30pm.
The Union favouring counter poll to muddy the waters must be about due to land,lol. It’ll be getting rushed through just now.You just know it is. 🙂
Sent this to my MP Kirsty Blackman….
KIRSTY,
On behalf of those people who support independence for Scotland I would like to invite you to take part in the March for Independence in Aberdeen on Saturday 17th August starting at Albyn Place 1.30pm. I do hope that a high profile SNP politician would be only too glad to take part in this event, There appears to be a feeling that the SNP have been too long sitting on the political fence and that their support for those who wish to raise the profile of Independence has been severely lacking. So I would urge you and your fellow SNP politicians to come out from behind your net curtains and join us in the March in a hopefully sunny Saturday in Aberdeen.
link to wingsoverscotland.com
“Would genuinely appreciate a constructive answer from anyone who has a good knowledge and understanding of politics in Scotland, but even if these polls were showing support for a referendum on Scottish Independence sitting at 90%, how does that help us if Westminster just keeps saying, ‘Now is not the time’?”
I have asked that repeatedly. Whats the plan if, say, a post Hard Brexit BoJo Government goes “No…” to demands for a referenum, even with polls suggesting say 55-60%?
Would I be correct in saying that no EU nationals or 16-18 years were polled. If so wouldn’t it be likely that the overall total for independence would be higher?
@Abulhaq says:5 August, 2019 at 8:58 am:
” … It cannot be said too often, it is not the purpose of Scottish Nationalism to save the British state, and England, from folly.”
That, of course, will be in your humble opinion, Abulhaq, and unfortunately it can be said too often for the more sensible among us realise that the last thing an independent Scotland needs is a hostile next door neighbour. It is the job of the First minister of Scotland to gather to Scotland as many good friends as it is possible to have. There can be no doubt that in future, and at present, Scotland needs as many good friends as it is possible to have.
Think about it for a moment, Abulhaq, and you will realise Scotland has only one land border and, even if Wales and Northern Ireland were to also gain their independence, our nearest non-England neighbour is Northern Ireland and the North Antrim Coast, at its closest point, is 12 miles from Scotland.
With a hostile England every item imported or exported would automatically carry an increased price tag of either sea or air transport both of which carry a bad weather surcharge. So even if Scots paid their whack to provide the Chunnel we are at the mercy of England for a land route to the rest of the World and to Europe in particular.
England, Wales and Northern Ireland aren’t our enemy – it is Westminster that is.
ITV News on-line has a piece on the latest Ashcroft poll:
link to tinyurl.com
@ Giving Goose says at 9:28 am … ”I’ve known English pensioners, who moved to Scotland, voted SNP but voted No in IndyRef1. There will be people who agree with SNP social policies but can’t move to Indy.”
That’s it in a nutshell Giving Goose. These, mostly Tory type, individuals want what Nicola Sturgeon, not Ruth Davidson, has to offer as part of the Union. Cake and eat it crew. Maybe when we get the WBB, the SNP leaflet and WGD’s book out there and they are hit with some facts such as that our NHS is at risk (hence the MSM targeting our NHS) they’ll change their minds? Then there’s the threat to our food standards ETC, ETC, ETC if we remain in the hellhole. Most of them aren’t interested in a promise of increased pensions, so what will it take to change their minds? If ever?
Meanwhile we can see that the penny hasn’t quite dropped for many Labour supporters. They can’t see that their party is finished, between one thing and another, and that it is they who have most to gain now in an Independent Scotland where they would have an opportunity to return to their Keir Hardie roots. Resurrect their party. The Ruth Davidson party has made murmurs about breaking away from London. Time for the Labour party to do so too. In fact to announce their support for Independence north of the border. That is if they actually give jack sh*t for the future of the Scots / Scotland.
Brian Lucey 12;21
Don’t know if there is any plan to ask Bojo anything, somehow I doubt it. I do not lose any sleep over it.
So what’s up next? A General Election with ”who” exactly winning? The outcome of that will also influence support for Independence greatly, one way or another.
@Robert Peffers 12:28
What you describe parallels in its anglo-aggression the pre union relationship. Are you suggesting that Scots must go cautiously cap in hand when dealing with England for fear of upset?
I do not get the position you take. Carried to the logical extreme we’d be better sticking with the current arrangement.
It is not just a Westminster issue many people in England are very unsympathetic to Scottish independence. I’ve met them, argued with them and come away stunned by the sheer ethnic hubris and arrogance manifested.
In a pink and fluffy world it would be so cool to be friends with the neighbours but we do not inhabit such a place.
That old saw about heat and kitchens may apply here.
Facts: The SNP are campaigning to prevent the UK leaving the EU. The SNP are especially opposed to No Deal “Hard Brexit”.
———————————————————–
The SCENARIOS:
Scenario 1: NO Brexit at all: If the UK Remains in the EU, independence becomes less likely for the following reasons:
1. 2016 SNP madate for Indyref gone. Even if indyref held: It would be a re-run of 2014: A vote for independence would be a vote for Scotland leaving the UK AND EU.
2. UK Govt would again campaign on a hard border between Scotland and England if YES wins. UK Govt would threaten to veto indy-Scotland’s application to re-join the EU. For as long as Scotland out of the EU, she would face tariffs when trading with UK / EU.
Result: Yes win would be less likely, so it becomes very unlikely the SNP would even call indyref2.
———————————
Scenario 2: An EU deal is made “Soft Brexit” goes ahead on 31 October 2019 or later. eg. UK remains aligned with EU Law:
1. SNP have the clear mandate: Scotland dragged out the EU.
2. UK is out of the EU. So Scotland is out of the EU. So a YES vote would not lose us EU membership.
3. Independent UK cannot threaten a veto on independent Scotland applying to re-join the EU, as UK is not EU member.
4. UK, so Scotland too, would be closely aligned with EU law, so EU membership would be more straightforward from regulatory aspect.
5. No need, ( unlawful??) for a border between Scotland and England if EU deal includes freedom of movement.
———————————————————
Scenario 3:
NO DEAL BREXIT:
1. UK has already blocked Continuity Bill and reserved laws to Westminster to enable Westminster to change Scotland’s laws away from EU law alignment.
2. UK can then change Scots Law to make Scotland incompatible with EU law. This would force a period of EU re-alignment even if Scotland wanted to join the EU ASAP.
3. BJ UK Govt oppose Soft Brexit, because if the UK remained compliant with EU law: this would make Scotland’s EU re-entry much easier (as Scotland would be EU law aligned) and England / Scotland trade etc would be regulated by the EU Brexit deal.
4. This is one of the reasons why the SNP so vehemently oppose No Deal Brexit, the other reason being economic damage.
———————————————————–
So, UK Govt would rather have No Deal Brexit than an EU-deal Brexit that includes freedom of movement.
Scotland would have to move fast to declare sovereignty to prevent UK making Scotland’s law incompatible with EU. If Scotland declares Holyrood sovereign over our laws ASAP, UK Parliament cannot change Scotland’s laws. This would take boldness and bravery following a YES win. The SNP under Nicola have never done bold, Nicola being ultra cautious.
———————————————————————
So, The SNP are right to oppose Hard Brexit: due to UK economic damage, due to absolute WM power over Scotland to make Scotland incompatible with the EU.
If UK stays in the EU, indyref won’t be held. It will be business as usual and Scotland remains UK colony.
Soft Brexit is probably the best option for indy supporters, so is most opposed by the BritNats.
link to wingsoverscotland.com
“Don’t know if there is any plan to ask Bojo anything, somehow I doubt it. I do not lose any sleep over it”
Except, the dilemma is that if you want to be in the EU, or indeed even recognized by any main player, you need to gain independence in a constitutional manner. That means, the existing polity of which you are a member needs to agree to have the relationship altered. So, like or no, the ball rests with the UK government.
What if they say no? Petulance, head in the sand-ism, unicorn sorry UDI fantasies, all fine but none will deliver what you want.
Including Don’t Knows Ashcroft poll has Yes only on 46%, the borders and rural Scotland still heavily No.
link to twitter.com
In Quebec in 1995 Yes to independence from Canada led most polls in the 2nd referendum there but No won 51% to 49% as Don’t Knows went No
It is called conditioning something that human beings are susceptible to and intelligence agencies use to manipulate.
Do not fall for it or forever be in the UK cage.
From what I remember Ashcroft made a lot of money in Central America, then, after doing a lot of money-stuff for the Tories, thinking he had “paid his dues” and going places, found himself chucked out on his arse; the Tory party is weasels fighting in a sack, armed with knives, as we have seen.
– I think Ashcroft has an axe to grind, which makes him, for us, an honest broker.
52 YES is OK, esp. if it does not include 16/17yr olds and europeans
– the real number is when hard brexit hits. Got to be worth +5.
The natural support level for independence over union is about 70-30 – the 30 is the anglo-financier who did very well out of union/empire, plus the kind of people with tattoos on their knuckles (done DIY, with a needle and indian ink after a heavy “sesh”)
– the actual 2014 result was confounded by
the tricked
the fearties
the better the devil you know brigade
the square the circle / have your cake and eat it
the complacent
– all the blocks are being removed by events. All the unionists arguments turned against them – Project Fear belongs to us, but it’s not a creative work, merely description and linear extrapolation.
What can the unionists campaign on – maybe a massive bribe of some kind … oh wait – we already got that, “delivered”.
What are the odds of this significant poll being mentioned on BBB TV news bulletins
‘Map reveals which council areas likely now back Scottish independence.’
link to thenational.scot
……………………..
O/T
Professor John Robertson:- ‘The Tory/Unison Axis of Evil against the ‘SNP Government’ brings you ‘Things are bad so don’t think about changing anything’ every 30 minutes on BBC ‘Scotland’.’
”New £150m hospital may have to be ”ripped down.”…
link to thoughtcontrolscotland.com
………………………….
Another brilliant Scot who never seems to get a mention. John Lamont born at Corriemulzie on the Linn of Dee road just west of Braemar on December 13, 1805.
‘The story of the forgotten Scottish space man.’
..”The main reason why Lamont is remembered is because he discovered a huge fact about our planet – the earth has a 10-year period of variations in the strength of the planet’s magnetic field, though nowadays it is more commonly quoted as an 11-year period and is associated with sunspot activity. He also proved the presence of telluric or Earth electric currents in the surface layers of our planet – tracking such currents is a technique still used for mineral and other explorations….
Among other achievements he calculated the mass of Uranus, worked out the orbits of the moons of Saturn and Uranus, and proved conclusively that our own Moon had no atmosphere…..
During his career he devised accurate stellar catalogues, noting 80,000 stars in all. His discoveries about the earth’s magnetic field and telluric currents made him famous and his many achievements included authoring more than 100 academic papers. He also made his own scientific instruments and sold many to other academic institutions……
link to thenational.scot
@ Brian Lucey.
Rob Peffers gave you a pretty concise answer the last time you asked this and I seem to remember I directed you back to it when you asked the same question on WGD.
I have little doubt that Westminster will use court action to try and undermine the referendum, either to delay or seek a judicial review on the result. However there are two constitutional authorities at play here, Scots and English law. Both recognised internationally with their respective legal jurisdiction already defined. See Lockerbie.
In moderation, so breaking my post down.
‘Map reveals which council areas likely now back Scottish independence.’
link to thenational.scot
O/T
Professor John Robertson:- ‘The Tory/Unison Axis of Evil against the ‘SNP Government’ brings you ‘Things are bad so don’t think about changing anything’ every 30 minutes on BBC ‘Scotland’.’
”New £150m hospital may have to be ”ripped down.”…
link to thoughtcontrolscotland.com
O/T
Another brilliant Scot who never seems to get a mention. John Lamont born at Corriemulzie on the Linn of Dee road just west of Braemar on December 13, 1805.
‘The story of the forgotten Scottish space man.’
..”The main reason why Lamont is remembered is because he discovered a huge fact about our planet – the earth has a 10-year period of variations in the strength of the planet’s magnetic field, though nowadays it is more commonly quoted as an 11-year period and is associated with sunspot activity. He also proved the presence of telluric or Earth electric currents in the surface layers of our planet – tracking such currents is a technique still used for mineral and other explorations….
Among other achievements he calculated the mass of Uranus, worked out the orbits of the moons of Saturn and Uranus, and proved conclusively that our own Moon had no atmosphere…..
During his career he devised accurate stellar catalogues, noting 80,000 stars in all. His discoveries about the earth’s magnetic field and telluric currents made him famous and his many achievements included authoring more than 100 academic papers. He also made his own scientific instruments and sold many to other academic institutions……
link to thenational.scot
O/T
Another brilliant Scot who never seems to get a mention. John Lamont born at Corriemulzie on the Linn of Dee road just west of Braemar on December 13, 1805.
‘The story of the forgotten Scottish space man.’
..”The main reason why Lamont is remembered is because he discovered a huge fact about our planet – the earth has a 10-year period of variations in the strength of the planet’s magnetic field, though nowadays it is more commonly quoted as an 11-year period and is associated with sunspot activity. He also proved the presence of telluric or Earth electric currents in the surface layers of our planet – tracking such currents is a technique still used for mineral and other explorations….
Among other achievements he calculated the mass of Ur*nus, worked out the orbits of the moons of Saturn and Ur*nus, and proved conclusively that our own Moon had no atmosphere…..
During his career he devised accurate stellar catalogues, noting 80,000 stars in all. His discoveries about the earth’s magnetic field and telluric currents made him famous and his many achievements included authoring more than 100 academic papers. He also made his own scientific instruments and sold many to other academic institutions……
link to thenational.scot
Oh Dearie me! The ”impartial” BBC at it again?
‘Scottish independence: SNP MSP slams BBC coverage of key poll.’
link to thenational.scot
With Coco’s return to lengthy posts (that I scroll-on-by) and FUD completing the double act – it is so obvious that the unionists are suffering faecal impaction.
Happy days!
People always asking what the positive case for the union is, you are going to have union flags coming out your ears, what else could you want. Possibly Jacob Rees-Mogg deeming that Ruth Davidson must refer to the Scottish Secretary as Father Jack Esq in all communication.
@Footsoldier says: 5 August, 2019 at 9:04 am.
” … The SNP need to say a lot more than they are doing as others will fill the silence and it is a gift to the opposition.”
Oh! Stop talking rubbish, footsoldier. I have been a political animal since I was a boy and SNP supporters were very thin on the ground and the Labour Party didn’t count votes at elections – they weighed them.
Thus I do now know many current middle or elderly YES supporters who have come over to YES from being former Labour supporters. Now just why have all those people moved from other parties to vote SNP? In the vast majority of cases it is because they became disillusioned by the things Labour has said and done that subsequently they found to be either lies or just wrong policies. What’s more after finding out how Labour lies and cheats they never go back to voting Labour.
They will know just as I do that all this anti-SNP stuff propagated by the unionists and their tame propagandists is made up lies and propaganda.
So what about this current scam about hospital patients who the media claim to have died from such things as pigeon droppings or infections from poor drains?
I read what Professor John Robertson said about the original story and it showed the coroner’s report did not claim what the MSM claimed it had and Professor John quoted the actual reports.
What the reports said was that both children were already very ill babies and would have struggled to survive anyway. The reports did state, among other things, that the children had contracted a disease often carried by Pidgeon poo but it did not say there was any evidence, in these cases, that the disease was contracted by pigeon poo. There was no evidence pigeons were the actual source. The truth being both children were most likely far too weak and premature to survive in any case. The MSM had thus concocted a story that would not have stood up in court if the parents had attempted to sue.
Which brings us to this current concocted tissue of lies. Go read what Professor John Robertson has to say on that particular story here:-
link to thoughtcontrolscotland.com
Now think on this – anyone now finding out the truth as Prof John has exposed it will be well on the way of joining the many thousands who have found out the BBC, STV and the dead tree press have been lying to them all their lives and another YES voter joins the majority who clamour and march for independence.
Slowly but surely the Westminster propaganda is actually cnverting voters in Scotland to vote for independence because once they have been found out by a voter to be liars that person is lost to the union forever.
So Footsoldier, of you go and read the current pages of, “Thought Control Scotland”:-
link to thoughtcontrolscotland.com
Professor John dissects that very story about the tearing down of the new hospital. Copy it, print it out and go show it to a No voter. Leave them the copy and see it you have won another vote for independence.
No matter how accurate this poll might be, and Lord Ashcroft’s polls are generally pretty much on the money, this poll doesn’t appear to include a part of the demographic that will be allowed to vote
Unless a slice of every demographic is represented within a poll it’s about as much use as standing outside the post office and asking passers by, and guess what, I’ve done that and most of them wanted the SNP to be put in a field and stoned to death, because the respondents were almost all folk my age…..old
Pensioners are such arseholes about stuff, they hear four words and make up the rest, and the older they get the arseholes get bigger in proportion to their faces getting more miserable, well that’s what they tell their free personal carers and free hospital bus drivers as they forget that 10 years ago they’d all be dead by now if it wasn’t for the SNP that they want stoned to death who provide all this free stuff that everybody else pays for them to have but that the Tories would reverse in an instant
The Tories could threaten to bomb Scotland and they’d still vote NO as long as they’ve got somebody local (SNP) to blame for it
Cause they said so on the Telly, well that’s what I heard
The longer pain goes on the more people get used to it they just limp and accept it and forget what it was like not to limp, time is a thing that’s on Unionist’s side as well
At the pace this is all moving Wales will be more likely to be Independent before Scotland and there’s a good reason for that….no sectarianism, and it’s not just a central Scotland problem, you don’t have to wear a Rangers shirt and shave your head to be one of them you can be a lovely twin set and pearls lady from Perth or the nicely dressed golfer from Dumfries or the fisherman from Peterhead who all pretend not to know much about politics and prefer not to discuss it in case it causes offence, but what they mean is something entirely different
I’ve worked in every Orange club in Scotland in my life as a musician, I know who and where they are, and they will *no surrender* …. but they’ll do it quietly and they won’t tell you….. Sshh
I have never understood why the question about a second IndyRef at some point in the next two years is relevant.
Surely a less arbitrary, and more informative threshold for the question would be a second IndyRef before or after Brexit, or alternatively, a second IndyRef in the lifetime of this parliament, or beyond. (Or not at all).
To ask about an IndyRef at “some point” in the next two years seems bland and imprecise, and surely flatters the “Don’t Know” option.
Am I missing something about this curious “two years”?
You can always rely on HYFUD the Tory party member from southern England to pop up an churn out his lies and anti independence propaganda. Butt out you colonial mindset diddy – none of your business. England does not own Scotland so just pissoff.
16-17 year olds are ~3.5% of the electorate and strongly YES. Add 2-2.5% to Yes.
EU nationals account for another ~3.5% of the electorate. They would be foolish not to vote, and to vote Yes. Add another 2.5% to Yes.
That’s around 5% Yes the poll is missing.
Funnily, that takes us up to the rumoured 57% of the WM secret poll. Just saying, like.
We need a poll or three with EU citizens and 16-17 included!
You can teach children to count, it’s easy and they accept 2+2=4 until they become Unionist adults then they refuse to accept your dodgy figures that you just made up and prefer to rely on the absolute undeniable reason of big Tam doon the pub heard it at the Lodge meeeting…..Fact!
Love it when they put *fact* at the end of stuff they scribble
Unionist Trolls in panic mode now demanding that the FM only have a referendum when the polls are at 60% for YES like she *promised* *generation* *lifetime* *ever* *for all time*
and they still say they’d vote NO
The difference with Unionists is they would deny democracy to everyone including themselves rather than have the opportunity to prove their point of view
This poll didn’t seem to be important enough to mention on lunchtime Rep Scot. Spent lots of time on the Children’s Hospital and that some union rep had herd some gossip. Tories want an enquiry and the coup de grâce of the entire piece having Jeanne Freeman defending her decisions. This was always the end game to tie the health secretary in and go for the resignation, they have previous on this approach.
The PM’s £1.8bn for 20 hospitals in ‘England’ will allow £108m to be allocated to the SNHS as per the ‘usual method’ says shortbread
‘usual method’ = Barnett formula 🙂
This morning “the new hospital might have to be ripped down” but this afternoon best “wait until the revue reports on the matter”.
No Monica Lennon, no Tory and no union official comment. 🙂
PS:
Your a busy man Mr Peffers, in spite of your sore eyes, you can still spot a duff unionist agenda. 🙂
I think in Scotland we have learned a lot from Quebec 1 and 2 and the methods used in both their votes and our Indyref 1.
Crucially, they had no Brexit to contend with. In 1995 they were voting on the perceived failure of the 2 Accord agreements. Their referendums were 15 years apart. The memory of what was promised and what was delivered was not as fresh as it is for us. That is why the Unionists want a generation between votes – to muddy the memories. Despite all that in Quebec 2 it was close.
Our constitutional status will change no matter what happens.There is no status quo anymore and nothing on offer except Boris Bluster. The rhetoric from Downing St. is less not more devolution.
The core support for Indy is stable and gradual movement seems to being going, albeit slowly, towards Indy. With an actual campaign and based on the revelations from Downing St. of what lies ahead we will get a better idea of how the land lies.
I would not base Scotland’s future vote on what the opinion of the Borders is just now. As a barometer of Scotland they are a bit out of sync.
As to Lord Ashcroft’s credentials , I have no qualms. Remember though every time Indy moves forward there is a counter move. Lord Ashcroft knows that and timing is all. If his Tory masters wanted information they have it.
O/T
Got Electoral registration forms again, there is definitely an election in the offing.
@One_Scot says: 5 August, 2019 at 12:07 pm:
” … how does that help us if Westminster just keeps saying, ‘Now is not the time’?”
Oh! For goodness sake! How many times must it be said that no one needs a Section 30 Order to hold a referendum?
Ashcroft has just held a referendum – (he referred questions to a section of the public), I took part in a referendum on YouTube yesterday, (They referred a question on certain common goods to users of YouTube). Referendums are not against any law.
Tom Waterson is Chairperson for Health in the Union Unison
There appears to be no information on Mr Waterson’s qualifications as an engineer or buildings construction specialist of any kind, indeed there seems to be no information whatsoever on Mr Waterson, so for all anybody knows and especially the BBC who are repeating his words endlessly Mr Waterson could be unqualified in every and all aspects of building work, in which case Mr Waterson and the BBC should make clear where this information they are reporting is coming from and from whom
Re:Effigy @ 11.40
O/T
Not to mention Labour’s legacy to Scotland. BILLIONS in debt to private companies for the next 25 years, due to Labours’ PFI vanity projects, many of the buildings were not fit for purpose, some were dangerous. Heating systems were terrible, hospitals not fit for purpose and massive car parking charges for staff, to this day.
All due to UK Labour branch in Scotland, and their policy of private finance for public buildings, much to the massive detriment of Scotland’s councils, people and economic health!
How dare their BBC and UK state run media run with SNP bad 24/7 when their disgusting British Nationalists parties are about to screw over Scotland far far worse in a couple of months time! Distracting from the devastation (when Brexit hits soon) of Scotland’s economy, jobs, environment, services, is what the Britnats do and it’s all they have. Pandering to the proud Scot butts. GTF.
Local Labour waste of space MP now writing to my constituency
In House of Commons paper to ask if he can help with anything?
First time I’ve seen or heard anything from him since he became an MP.
Must mean Labour expect an Election soon.
He must get put out this time
Re: Petra@1.26
O/T
There are many many Scots who were innovators and inventers who are completely ignored to this day. Thanks for the info, will look up online, The National has a paywall now, though I buy the paper most days.
Nicola Sturgeon, Shona Robison, Jeanne Freeman
It comes with the job that every SNP health Minister is attacked by all opposition parties simultaneously over anything they can think of
It’s just Jeanne’s turn for the monstering
She’ll be fine, made of strong stuff and a smart woman
BBC Reporting Britnat Propaganda today.
Not a word on the Ashcroft poll.
Plenty of big licks on the dreadful new children’s hospital in Edinburgh. What is the source of this story – a Britnat union official pictured reading about himself in the Britnat Herald. Only idiots would believe this crap.
What’s wrong are there no deadly Scottish pigeons in Edinburgh.
Do the presenters of these programmes realise they are spouting propaganda or are they just thick?
Britnat propaganda on the BBC all the time.
The subdued response to this poll is a bit strange. This is most momentous indy poll since those that gave us a brief lead just before iref1.
We know for certain that 16 and 17 year-olds were excluded, and I *think* non-UK EU nationals were too. So as people have pointed out, that could mean the actual poll is something like 54-46 for Yes. For comparison, just over nine months ago we were behind 45-55 in a Survation poll that included 16-17s. In other words, we’ve come up roughly nine percent in just over nine months.
That’s an amazing achievement, especially in the insanely biased media environment in Scotland. That kind of sustained improvement matters far more than the dramatic but brief jump immediately after the Brexit referendum. And Brexit hasn’t even happened yet.
Pat yourselves on the back and enjoy this news. We’re well on our way now.
@SeanMcNulty
That’s the problem though.
We cannot compare polls because of those omissions but I agree it is positive. Not momentous…yet! There is still lot of figuring out for Soft Noes and Don’t Knows.
I suspect we’ll see a flurry of polling in the next while.
Muscleguy @ 08:48,
You make an important point there. It’s been a longstanding expectation of a majority that Scotland will one day be independent, so the job at hand is to convince everyone who believes it that the time is NOW. They provide the latent support to win it. I believe we are already there – all it needs is a full-on indy campaign to unleash it.
55:45 the other way round would do me nicely. That was “decisive”, after all. =grin=
@starlaw says: 5 August, 2019 at 12:10 pm:
” … watched this fool of a Union rep on the news and formed the opinion that these people would have opened this Hospital in spite of the risk to patients and staff. Well done SNP for keeping it shut.”
If you want the real truth, starlaw, you should read Professor John Robertson on his blog:-
link to thoughtcontrolscotland.com
He tore apart the first load of lies about the two premature babies that the SMSM claimed had died from infections caught from pigeon droppings. Prof John first of all went through the coroner’s reports and proved there was no actual claims by the coroner that the infections were caught from pigeon droppings.
All that the coroner claimed was that a disease often carried by pigeon droppings was, “a contributory factor”, in the deaths of the babies. What’s more the coroner’s reports said the babies were very premature are very unlikely to have survived even without infections.
Normally these infections don’t cause problems in health babies if they are infected. Now ask yourself the question, “if Hospitals are full of people with all kinds of diseases is it a surprise that people get infected”?
So the truth was that two premature babies who were unlikely to have survived anyway died and a contributory infection often found in pigeon droppings was a contributory factor, (among others), but there was no evidence that the infection was picked up from pigeon droppings.
Now I’m no doctor but how would a premature baby, (normally such babies are kept in enclosed and controlled machines), and anyway how would they come in contact with pigeon droppings in an intensive care unit?
So the first batch of such media claims were decidedly iffy. So what about the second load of tripe? There had been no patients in the hospital so just what kicked off the claims of dangerous drains and a dander of i8nfections from pigeon droppings?
Who was it that began such stories for no one caught anything from either murderous drains or dangerous cushie doos sneaking into intensive care units and leaving droppings on premature babes. Whatever else the statistics for any hospital in the United Kingdom are bound to show that there will be a high percentage of people dying in that hospital for hospitals are full of sick, injured and just old and already dying people whose time has come to die.
Most likely the stories stemmed from something else or just from the ventilation systems and drainage systems being similar to those in the Glasgow hospital and noted as such by the Clerk of Works person signing off the work as satisfactory – or not.
Anyway read what Professor John Robertson has written on that subject today on his blog:-
link to thoughtcontrolscotland.com
BBC journalism is now reduced to the level that top cover is given to a union rep who heard a story from people he did not identify that a new hospital MAY have a drains problem and MAY need to be pulled down.
The BBC tee it up and Labour and Tory parties jump on for a SNPbad fest.
What happened to fact checking, verification etc It appears now that the BBC will accept pub gossip if it delivers a SNPbad headline for their Unionist buddies.
Then we have a story based on facts ( Polling data in support of Independence). That story is to be buried.
INDY REF PHONE-IN ON LBC NOW! YOONS BE RAGING
link to globalplayer.com
galamcennalath says:
5 August, 2019 at 1:43 pm
16-17 year olds are ~3.5% of the electorate and strongly YES. Add 2-2.5% to Yes.
EU nationals account for another ~3.5% of the electorate. They would be foolish not to vote, and to vote Yes. Add another 2.5% to Yes.
That’s around 5% Yes the poll is missing.
This doesn’t quite work out, galamcennalath. We can’t add 2-2.5% to the Yes total for both these groups. We can only add about 1-1.5% for 16-17s and 1-1.5% for EU nationals, i.e. 2-3% for a total Yes vote of 54-55%.
As you correctly identify, the indy vote among 16-17s goes over 70% to Yes, so of the 3.5% the split would be roughly 2.5% Yes and 1% No. But we can only add the *difference* between these to the Yes vote (1.5%), not the full 2.5%.
If the gap was as large among EU nationals then we could add another 1.5% to Yes.
But to get even more complicated, we’ve now added 7% in total to the electorate analysed by Ashcroft, so we can’t confidently add more than 2-2.5% for Yes.
But what we can say for sure if that based on this poll the support for Yes is *at least* 54%. And as mentioned above, it’s strange that more people aren’t celebrating this.
@:Brian Lucey says:5 August, 2019 at 12:21 pm:
” … I have asked that repeatedly. Whats the plan if, say, a post Hard Brexit BoJo Government goes “No…” to demands for a referenum, even with polls suggesting say 55-60%?”
Perhaps you should pay more attention to what is said by people like the First Minister and a lot less to what passes as either Unionist Politicians or pretendy journalists.
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s First Minister, is on record as saying publicly that there will be another independence referendum, with or without, a section 30 Order.
Furthermore, there is a bill going through the Holyrood Parliament, to that effect. Just in case you do not believe me here is a report to that effect from perhaps the most anti-independence publication in Scotland:-
link to scotsman.com
BritNat HQ will this moment be planning their counter poll……just need to iron out the payments and then it’ll be all over the news
Very soon, not quite yet, we enter the territoriy where wanting independence and a referendum is the default, norm, majority position. The BritNats’ arguments revolve around declaring they speak for the majority.
Take this quote from the SiU site … “We stand for the majority of people in Scotland who know that we are stronger together, with a shared culture and history we can build our future on.” … What happens when this is no longer true? Then they become no more than a special interest group standing up for non Scots who have landed interests here!
When BritNats and their loyal media chums cease in any way to represent the will of the majority their arguments are very weak indeed.
“SilverDarling says:
5 August, 2019 at 2:47 pm
@SeanMcNulty
That’s the problem though.
We cannot compare polls because of those omissions but I agree it is positive. Not momentous…yet! There is still lot of figuring out for Soft Noes and Don’t Knows.
I suspect we’ll see a flurry of polling in the next while.”
Hi SilverDarling.
We’ll need to disagree on whether it’s momentous or not. You’ll see above that I don’t think that if we include the missing subgroups we can add the 5% galamcennalath mentions. But I do think we can add 2 to 3%, taking us to 54 or 55% with all relevant groups included.
For comparison the Panelbase poll six weeks ago, which did include all relevant groups, had Yes at 49%. Something like a 5 or 6% jump in six weeks is momentous IMO. And again: Brexit hasn’t even happened yet.
BBC are basically trolling us, right?
‘Could Music Festivals Be Good For Your Health’ – Front Page
Scotland Now in Favour of Independence – Apparently not worth covering. At all. Anywhere.
Robert Peffers says:
5 August, 2019 at 2:12 pm
@One_Scot says: 5 August, 2019 at 12:07 pm:
” … how does that help us if Westminster just keeps saying, ‘Now is not the time’?”
Oh! For goodness sake! How many times must it be said that no one needs a Section 30 Order to hold a referendum?
Well until “somebody” formally disputes the narrative, it’s the shite we’ll keep hearing over and over again from the BritNat media.
Propaganda being indoctrination, it’s inevitable there are some who will be left indoctrinated.
Refusing a Section 30 with her iconic “now is not the time” dismissal, and putting a bump in the road for the SNP in the 2017 GE were Theresa May’s high points in a thoroughly dismal and colourless premiership. Somehow being a Section 30 we don’t even need just makes it worse. Scotland put back in it’s box by “any old shite that’s not even true”, once again.
Scotland’s Government is on a short list of people who have had their plans parried, and effortlessly outmanoeuvred by the inglorious Theresa May.
I presume they give us “any old shite” because they’ve done it for 300 years and know we’ll fall for it. Wha’s like us? Damn few, and they’re awe Independent Nations.
But keep the faith. 86 days left of our European Citizenship. Anything can happen, but probably not for the next 5 weeks while everybody’s off on holiday and doing important stuff.
Re Ashcroft and yougov, it was one of his business partners who co founded you gov, sorry for the confusion
In 2011, he became the main backer, along with Stephan Shakespeare (CEO and co-Founder of YouGov) of Flooved, an online education startup.
@Abulhaq says: 5 August, 2019 at 12:49 pm:
” … What you describe parallels in its anglo-aggression the pre union relationship. Are you suggesting that Scots must go cautiously cap in hand when dealing with England for fear of upset?
NO.
Och awe you folk arguing about momentous or not. We’re now winning and it will grow. I’m sure we all feel it in our bones. Rejoice! Rejoice! Rejoice!
No time for arguing or self congratulation. As yer man said-
“It is not the end, nor the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning”
We’re on our way. We have the Zeitgeist. 300 years later. The kids will win it for us.
@Sean McNulty
Yes, I accept you’re right because adding the missing demographics raises Yes by the amounts I suggested, but also raises No by the remained. It’s the difference between Y and N which impacts on the totals.
I got carried away with my enthusiasm.
I just hope it’s not misplaced and other polls follow soon showing the same level of support!
Anything over 50% is good, when everything is consistently over 50% it will be superb.
Robert Peffers @ 14:56,
Of course, the longer this indy phoney war goes on, the more these vile calumnies accumulate. It’s all the BritNats have left, mud-slinging in the hope that some of it sticks in the minds of the (deliberately) mis/un-informed. Even better for them if someone eventually makes a big enough mistake on which they can finally luck out.
All of which just illustrates, in the words of the song, “Time is everything”.
Peffers 1.31pm – What a pompous man. A real Pooh Bah.
I think this is very important, but seldom see it mentioned.
The Unionists go on at great length about the amount of trade Scotland does with England, and it is certainly a considerable amount.
The Unionists also say that this trade would be in jeopardy if Scotland was in the EU and England was out.
But even the most fervent Brexiteers say that there will be a post-Brexit deal with the EU.
Now the EU protect their members one hundred percent and so any deal that England agreed with the EU would also HAVE to be offered to independent, European Scotland or the EU would not agree to any trade deal with England.
Scotland will get the best of all trading worlds. – In the EU with access to all their existing trade deals. (Recently Japan, Canada, Norway and South America). Plus a continuing trade relationship with England on the best terms the EU can give them.
Independence in the EU is a win – win situation.
Any phoney war is not of our making, but we need to negotiate through it and survive it. And we will. Let’s hold the collective nerve.
It’s coming.
Why didn’t Lord Ashcroft include the LibDems in that poll?
What are they trying to hide?
BBC Scotland is in BBC parlance (part of Nations and Regions, just as Oxfordshire) is just a region and the constitution is not for a region to report on. They are probably waiting on their Broadcasting House handlers telling them how this is to be reported to a regional audience.
Times and political paradigms do change. At a time when global problems require international cooperation to tackle existential concerns, the New Right are determined to turn the clock back on social evolution and ecological responsibility, largely in the name of God and a support of white supremacy.
Paradigms of public law: transnational constitutional values and democratic challenges
link to academic.oup.com
Still BBC Scotland ignore the polls on their web page both on the general news page and political page
The so called journalists at Pacific Quay hold your heads in shame.
toooodilooo the noo
We have WoS, other blogs, email, facebook, etcetera you know!!
BBC offering a bonus to any political editor who can come up with a Unionist spin on the new Lord Ashcroft Scottish Indy poll.
Hospital story now on a loop..rinse..spin..repeat.
They are going mental mental chicken oriental looking for an angle …Sarah Smith has offered to give a piece on camera…a ham piece…as per….she is frantically typing up something that can include the words ” Conveniently for the SNP ” ….sh*t goin down at Pacific Quay….heads will roll…as will shoulders , Knees and Toes.
Come oan it’s a story ya bams….report it…how long can they hold out…Da Da Dum Dum DAAAAAA…the suspenders are killing me…..surely a story on Conservative Home deserves a mention guys…..you’ve had Ruth on speed dial for long enough giving you a multitude of ” opposition parties say ” and ” some critics say” smear stories….have you no mercy for a poll in Conservative Home….Hello ….Hello….Hello…Is there anybody there ?
@galamcennalath
At least you realised what good news this poll is. It was strange to come here this morning and see the disappointment.
Anyway, as you suggest, consistently getting over 50% is going to be huge psychologically. The momentum is all one-way now.
What’s coming up next that could impact on the Independence stats?
Will Parliament manage to block a No deal Brexit? If so, where will that leave the Tories with Farage hounding them? Meanwhile Hancock and Cummings say that they can’t. They’ve left it too late.
‘Parliament can no longer block no-deal Brexit, senior Tory insists.’
..”Health secretary Matt Hancock is the first minister in Boris Johnson’s administration to echo the reported claims of senior adviser Dominic Cummings that MPs have left it too late to stop no-deal going ahead on 31 October.”..
link to independent.co.uk
………………
Will they hold a General Election before the 31st October (tight?), following Brexit or not until May 2022? All opinions (predictions) welcome, lol.
‘Will there be a snap general election in 2019 and who would win?’
..”The Sun reported that Johnson’s team were keen to get an election in soon amid “fears Mr Corbyn could step down and be replaced by a new leader who is more popular with the public”.”..
”Jeremy Hunt put it bluntly: “If we attempt a general election before we have delivered Brexit we will be annihilated. Attacked by the Brexit Party on the Right and the Liberal Democrats on the Left, we will face extinction,” Hunt warned, adding that any candidate running on the promise of an imminent general election is “offering a prospectus for disaster”. Many commentators believe senior Tories would rather put up with a restless electorate than face the very real possibility of wipeout at the polls if an election is called before Britain’s departure from the EU.”…
link to theweek.co.uk
………………….
‘Could there be an early general election?’
link to bbc.co.uk
General Election Prediction:-
Prediction based on opinion polls from 24 Jul 2019 to 27 Jul 2019, sampling 7,733 people.
hwww.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
…………………………..
@ Artyhetty says at 2:20 pm – Petra (1.26pm) … ”There are many many Scots who were innovators and inventers who are completely ignored to this day. Thanks for the info, will look up online, The National has a paywall now, though I buy the paper most days.”
Artyhetty the article that I posted doesn’t seem to be behind a paywall. If interested check it out again. The article by the way (along with other great articles) was in the Sunday National yesterday.
Time for some constitutional legal theory?
link to yalelawjournal.org
I think I’ve got the BBC their headline, you just need to be selective and reflect Tory voters. A few vox-pops in selected areas (Ibrox, Moray) to enforce this opinion.
‘Although this is a single poll and the result is inconclusive, some voters have hardened their stance against independence and a referendum’.
If you shut your eyes you can already hear the dulcet BBC reporter reading this out.
This Union guy who is playing Chinese whispers on Hospital CRISIS…CRISIS…CRISIS…RUN FOR YOUR LIVES….has it been established where his source of information came from ?
Second hand knowledge – not directly known or experienced
Rumour – a currently circulating story or report of uncertain or doubtful truth.
Gossip – casual or unconstrained conversation or reports about other people, typically involving details which are not confirmed as true.
Little birdie source – used for saying that you are not going to say who told you something
Labour source – malicious rumour generated to smear SNP
I mean how many sources can one use before the actual piggen person who stated this and is suitably qualified to give out this opinion comes forward on camera…or rather a professional engineer making a more qualified and restrained statement based on actual factual assessment…someone not linked to Unite Union and Labour party….Jeezo
Anyone for phoning into call Kaye tomorrow to ask why they are not reporting it
Anyone for calling into call Kay in the morning to ask why they are not reporting it
Pertinent excerpts from Craig Murray’s blog.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk
[The SNP seems to have its heart set on being heroes on the UK stage and beloved of the Guardian and Alastair Campbell by thwarting Brexit for the UK. Well, bugger that. I want to destroy the UK and I want Scottish Independence. The rest is detail.
Whether England remains or leaves the EU is a decision for the residents of England, not for me.
…..if you can’t achieve Independence while Boris Johnson and his bunch of ghouls are lurking around No. 10, when can you? Forget waiting for a better time.
If the SNP fails to strike all out for Independence now, and gets further distracted by the effort to stop Brexit for the whole UK, I shall not be alone in wondering how many of the 8% of SNP voters in the Ashcroft poll who do not support Independence, are at or near the top of the party.]
The full-English Brexit was intended to resolve an internal dispute withing the Tory party. It has nothing to do with Britain’s economic competitiveness or protecting Parliamentary sovereignty. It got out of hand, let the gene of English racism out of its bottle, but at least it has shown the British constitution up for what it is, i.e. a charter for expansionist English nationalism.
Henry the VIII powers have no legitimate place in British constitutional legal practice.
link to consoc.org.uk
@ Shug @ 4.04pm
Hi shug, if you call Kaye you’ll have to say you’re Karen from Glasgow…and have a NO SURRENDER tone in your voice ..Lol
CBB@3:46pm – New Right? – surely you mean the Far Right? – many of us now find ourselves right of centre due to the nutjob left dragging everything so far off-centre….and I am sure that you will acknowledge that the Far Left have done much more damage to humanity than the Far Right? – not that it’s a competition mind, just a reminder to put things in perspective.
I am also not so sure that linking a belief in God to white supremacy is a very clever thing to do.
@Brian Lucey says:5 August, 2019 at 12:55 pm:
” … you need to gain independence in a constitutional manner. That means, the existing polity of which you are a member needs to agree to have the relationship altered. So, like or no, the ball rests with the UK government.”
That’s hilarious, Brian. You simply have no idea of what the legal relationship of, “The United Kingdom”, actually is and I’m fed up posting it – but here we go again. What do they teach you guys as history? Here is a very brief and incomplete history lesson.
The Kingdom of England defeated the last native Prince of Wales in war and, in 1284, the King of England forced English law upon Wales by the Statute of Rhuddlan”. Thus annexing most of Wales as part of the Kingdom of England.
Then the Holy Roman See, (the then international authority), appointed the King of the Kingdom of England as Lord of Ireland and, (in 1542), The English King forced the Parliament of Ireland to pass the Crown of Ireland act and this act placed the crown of Ireland upon the king of England’s head and thus England annexed Ireland as part of the Kingdom of England.
In spite of long years of war The Kingdom of England failed to annex the Kingdom of Scotland and Scotland, in 1320, (after defeating England in the Wars of Scottish Independence), sent the Declaration of Arbroath, to the Holy Roman See and it was accepted by the Pope.
The Declaration of Arbroath also did some things quite extraordinary and centuries before its time. First was to forever change the laws of Scotland by making the people and not either the crown or the parliament legally sovereign.
Thus, by 1706/7 Britain consisted of only two monarchies – Scotland and England but Jersey, Guernsey and Man were, and still are not under Westminster rule but are part of her Majesty’s personal kingdom of Britain.
Anyhow, and not mentioning that the Treaty of Union of 1706/7 was actually illegally forced upon Scotland, the two kingdoms signed, “The Treaty of Union”.
Now legally, in order to legally sign such an international treaty, both signatory kingdoms had to be legally equally sovereign. Thus the United Kingdom is neither a unified country nor is it a union of countries. It is exactly what its title say it is – A two partner united kingdom with two equally sovereign kingdoms as its signatories. It is not a country nor is it a union of four countries with England as the master race.
It is, as it began, an international kingdom of two equally sovereign signatory kingdoms called The United Kingdom. Neither Wales or Ireland are signatories of the Treaty of Union.
Now to trash your claims – The former Prime Minister are several cabinet ministers have within the past year made this statement in the House of Commons and it is thus recorded in Hansard, “In an international treaty any party to the treaty has legal right to leave the treaty and need not give a reason for doing so”.
Now I know they spoke about the UK leaving the EU but they are correct under international law and the Treaty of Union is an international treaty. What is more Westminster did not defend the Treaty from Scottish claims of, “The Scottish Claim of Right”, and by not objecting to that clain they legally accepted it.
The Scottish Claim of Right is the Scottish right to Scottish sovereignty. Which means that as the people of Scotland are legally sovereign then a majority of the people of Scotland have legal right to end the United Kingdom and the Status Quo Ante of that is a return to the same two kingdoms as signed the treaty of union.
There is absolutely no legal basis for Scotland to ask either the Westminster Parliament, (the UK Parliament not the Kingdom of England parliament for no such parliament legally exists.
Got it now, Brian?
galamcennalath @ 09:20,
Actuallly I disagree, on both counts.
The Leaver delusion is a powerful one, and has been carefully fed & watered by decades of poisonous right-wing anti-EU paranoia. Its grip on the faithful isn’t likely to be dented immediately on exit, especially if the bad effects aren’t immediately tangible, and may only slowly accumulate over time. If there isn’t something on the scale of total paralysis at the ports, expect an initial chorus from them of “told you so!”.
As to your second point, I believe there are two mindsets within the former Yes-Leave camp. Those who prefer Leave for whatever reason but understand they will inevitably be in a minority on that issue in an independent Scotland yet recognise (or will come to recognise in a campaign) that independence still matters far more anyway.
The others are diehard isolationists who are (among other things) distinctly anti-immigrant, and are entirely turned-off by Nicola’s (rightful) stance on that issue alone. They probably bought the BritNat lies in 2014 about leaving the EU. I don’t believe that this latter camp are in any way likely to return to the fold, no matter what we might try. A totally wasted effort. The first camp, on the other hand, will be persuadable by the usual arguments, and need no special attention. They might have to swallow some pride, but that’s everyday life in a democracy.
What is necessary, on the other hand, is to convert a suitable fraction of the 55% of former no voters. Far richer pickings there, and moreover that’s visibly succeeding. More slowly than we would like, true, but maybe we find it difficult to appreciate how hard it is for some people to unpick a lifetime of embedded assumptions. But the grain of events is doing just that, and we need to work with the grain, not against it.
ahundredthidiot
The New Right is the name given to the right-wing Anglo-American politics, that has emerged in the USA the 1950s, and which was spearheaded by Enoch Powell in the UK. It is characterised by its blend of neo-liberal neo-conservatism and Christian fundamentalism.
This movement in the polls is solely down to inertia. Folks, in the main part, are not just yet ready to engage……but give it 4 weeks when they will struggle to fill up the car, or have enough in the pocket for treats….then watch the polls climb, and the pressure on Nicola to act.
The secret of Political Success is judging the Turn of the Spring Tide to Perfection…..then we win big time !!
It’s coming !
I do know a bit about this stuff. 😉
link to opendemocracy.net
@Colin Alexander says: 5 August, 2019 at 12:55 pm:
” … Facts: The SNP are campaigning to prevent the UK leaving the EU. The SNP are especially opposed to No Deal “Hard Brexit”.”
Oh! Dear! He is at it again. Sorry to tell you this – again – Colin but you saying something is a fact does not make it a fact – it makes it a claim.
You need to back up your claims with proofs. Even if those proofs are only something like a reference to the claimed facts that can be looked up or at least the logic that explains what you claim.
The full-English Brexit has been a long time in gestation.
link to blogs.lse.ac.uk
me @ 16:31,
Oh, and as Kenny MacAskill reminds us in today’s paper, also by the (oft-forgotten) non-voters. Engaging and inspiring more of the uncommitted. (And by something a sight more effective than the trendy-lefty pretensions of RISE.)
Expect a concerted attempt by labour in Scotland and the bbc inScotland over the coming days!
Lots of Mara greetin, Kelly miscalculating, Leonard being confusing and some stooge from a once great trade union coming up with an opinion on hospitals given to him by labour!
They are rattled, when rattled labour run to tories for advice and comfort!
One Nation Torydum is dead, long live the New Right and Brexitania (Greater England).
link to politics.co.uk
Dr Jim @ 2.04 PM
This ‘she said when polls at 60%’ was something Ms Sturgeon did not say. It seems to come from an interpretation by Prof Curtice of her remarks/speech at the SNP conference in October 2015.
From BBC ‘live’ report of the speech to SNP Conference Oct 2015
“”Holding its fire’
Professor Curtice says Ms Sturgeon has effectively adopted the position of holding its fire until the polls show 60% support for independence for two years.
He says she wants her own mandate for the next five years.””
link to bbc.co.uk
Now read the relevant extracts from her speech to Conference in Oct 2015 and the relevant section from her opening remarks to conference in Oct 2015. Any mention by her of 60%?
What Ms Sturgeon actually said in her speech to Conference in October 2015
“”We believe that Scotland should be independent – we always have and we always will.
As I said as our conference opened, the time to propose another referendum will be when there is clear evidence that opinion has changed and that independence has become the choice of a majority of people in Scotland.””
link to politics.co.uk
And from her opening remarks to that Conference a day or two earlier
“” I believe with all my heart that Scotland should be an independent country.
“”But I respect the decision that our country made last year.
“”So let me be clear. To propose another referendum in the next parliament without strong evidence that a significant number of those who voted No have changed their minds would be wrong and we won’t do it.
“”It would not be respecting the decision that people made.
“”But, over the next few years, as the Tories impose even deeper cuts, press ahead with Trident renewal and fail to honour in full the vow of more powers for our parliament, I think support for independence will continue to rise.
“”So let me also be clear about this.
“”If there is strong and consistent evidence that people have changed their minds and that independence has become the choice of a clear majority in this country, then we have no right to rule out a referendum and we won’t do that either.””
No mention of 60% there either. The figure appears to come from Prof Curtice’s not from anything Ms Sturgeon actually said or is there an interview of her saying that?
A Lord Ashcroft poll on Independence for Scotland revealed a shock result showing that Independence for Scotland is the preferred option for a majority of Scots
When the British Broadcasting Corporation were asked why this was not headline news they replied “Meh, we mentioned it on the wireless what more do you want” Our intrepid interviewer persisted by asking “Does the BBC not consider this massively important news in the constitutional debate within the UK”
The BBC replied “We would need to see a number of polls suggesting this was an important event and this poll could be an outlier so not significant as it stands alone”
Our reporter went on “So in the view of the BBC this poll signifies nothing?” “Exactly right, and until there are at least 30 or 40 polls showing the same thing Scotland’s preferences on anything cannot be a consideration when reporting news and if you’ll excuse us we have a Lodge meeting to go to” replied the spokesgit for the BBC
And remember. In 2014 we started with the polls at about 28% Yes, and got up to 45% on polling day.
We will be above 50% at the start this time and we haven’t even started campaigning yet.
bbc Going hell for leather on the hospital story
I do hope it is all resolved quickly and JF can debunk the bbc and trade union reporting
Trade union chap spoke to a man who knew a chap who once said the whole thing will have to be tore down because the gutter leaked!!!!
Got to be worth phoning call kaye
The Ashcroft poll is actually 46% Yes including Don’t Knows, where the 8% who are Don’t Know go will be crucial. Yes has not got over 50% yet.
link to twitter.com
Re: BBC Reporting
This may end up in front of a judge, who will decide (contractually) if there is any breach.
Real experts will be called, if that is the case….they will not consult a handyman for opinion, likewise neither should the BBC/MSM.
A very wise intervention by Jeane Freeman showing sound,responsible judgement, after all safety must come first and she also demonstrates her knowledge of how things work.
In the old days, traditional Plan-Spec- Bid- Build process , promoted finger pointing ,generated expensive repairs, sacrificed quality in the name of the lowest price and discouraged creativity and innovation in the name of risk management.
That goodness we live in modern times (where none of this happens, there is a systematic process in place that encourages quality workmanship, verified correct system operation and maintainability, provides training in operation and maintenance and thorough documentation) however people/contractors still make mistakes and are accountable/liable.
I would commend Jeane Freeman for ‘stopping the job’ on safety reasons,to allow the on-site team to carry on with their investigation to establish if the Building Regulations Codes/Regulations/Specifications etc. have been met and contractual obligations fulfilled.
But, but what the un-handy, handyman said, just doesn’t reflect the reality of the situation, is it not time for the BBC/MSM to stop with their stubborn politically biased reporting, or at least take their keyboards away from their handymen/women and give them to proper journalists.
The one thing we can take from the polls is that there is a significant group of floating voters. Also we cannot make assumptions for voters whose votes were not canvassed.
We cannot assume EU citizens will all vote Yes even if they get a vote. The Indy supporters may be planning to leave the UK already. The ones left may already be reconciled or pleased to be in a Brexit UK – they have their citizenship and vote Tory or even Brexit Party. We can’t assume all SNP voters will vote Yes as there are people who like the way the SNP run Scotland but only within the UK.
We certainly can’t assume previous Yes voters who voted SNP will vote the same way.What about the North East Pelagic Fishermen?
There is a group as RJS says whose vote to leave the UK assumed that by doing so they would leave the EU. They are Brexiteers first and foremost, on the Right but also on the Left, for example, Jim Sillars.
So all these disparate groups are in the mix for now. People are complicated but yes, the poll is good news!
In about 45 minutes times some wee talking head at pacific Quay will distort the Truth for money by yet again reporting that a Union Official warns that the Edinburgh hospital could be pulled down.
If I were a Unison member, over 50% of whom are apparently pro independence according to the latest poll, I’d insist that MY Union stopped donating to the Red Tories, and I would be demanding that this non expert shop steward was removed from office and flushed down the drains.
As I recall Ashcroft’s surveys are big, and taken over a fairly lengthy period of time. Even if we assume the Johnson premiership is reflected, I suspect his ultra right cabinet, and hell for leather No Deal are not fully reflected in the poll.
I can just about see the whites of there eyes, it is only the tears in mine from laughing that is stopping me.
I read elsewhere that the franchise didn’t include EU nationals , or 16-17 year olds, so it’s most likely the figure for pro indy would be greater.
HYUFD says:
5 August, 2019 at 5:24 pm
“The Ashcroft poll is actually 46% Yes including Don’t Knows, where the 8% who are Don’t Know go will be crucial. Yes has not got over 50% yet”
But you are missing the crucial point of the poll, HYUFD:
No has lost not just the lead in the polls but actually has receded from the safe 50% position. From that poll, the colonialists cannot use anymore the argument that there is not enough support for independence in Scotland.
According to that poll, and bearing in mind that poll does not include the 16-18 year old nor the EU citizens, the argument is now that there is not enough support in Scotland to justify the preservation of the UK, particularly if you also consider the polls of the tory voters in England.
The tide has changed. In 2014 it was the Yes campaign who had the hard work to make the positive case for independence and to be subjected to all scrutiny. The no campaign had it easy: they just had to contain the support by focusing in the “don’t knows” and soft yes.
Now it is the other way round. Now it is the no side who has to work hard at making the positive case for the union (as if there is one, so bring it on!!!!!). This poll means that project fear is not quite going to cut it for them this time.
No has been put in this last poll at 43%, 3% behind Yes. Even if you add all the 8% don’t knows to the No vote, which is very unlikely to happen, No would amount to a maximum of 51%, that is already a 4% behind what it had in 2014 – in other words, even before the campaign started they have already lost 80% of their lead. I think this is huge.
Remember that in January 2013 (only 6 years ago) No had a gargantuan support of 72%** and from that 72% it entered free fall until Brown, Cameron, Clegg and Miliband put the Devo Max and vow net to stop the fall. They claimed their campaign in 2014 was a success. I however think it was a complete disaster as they just about managed to contain the fall of the no support. Their problem today is that there is no net anymore. They broke it during the last 5 years with the weight of their deception. Their other wee problem is, of course, that the only way now to remain in the EU is to vote for Independence…
**https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jan/23/support-scottish-independence-slumps-lowest
Ian Anderson , yeah your correct about Ashcrofts polls being big, the question is, does he conduct them via a third party like Panelbase or does he have his own polling organisation, if the latter there is another Poll with similar questions due out from Panelbase.
@Brian Lucey says:5 August, 2019 at 12:55 pm:
” … Except, the dilemma is that if you want to be in the EU, or indeed even recognized by any main player, you need to gain independence in a constitutional manner. That means, the existing polity of which you are a member needs to agree to have the relationship altered. So, like or no, the ball rests with the UK government.”
First up is your claim that the signatories in an international treaty need the agreement of other parties in that international treaty to end the treaty. They don’t and several cabinet ministers of recent months are recorded in Hansard claiming just that.Anyway I have already explained what, “The constitution”, of the United Kingdom is, Brian, but perhaps it requires a little more explanation. The Westminster parliament a.k.a. The United Kingdom Parliament is exactly what it says it is in its title. It is, “The Parliament of the United Kingdom”, and the United Kingdom is the product of the 1706/7 “Treaty of Union”, which means the United Kingdom is,’constituted’, by the Treaty of Union.
So let’s put that statement beyond argument by quoting the dictionary:-
constitute – verb
past tense: constituted; past participle: constituted.
1. be (a part) of a whole.
synonyms: amount to, add up to, account for, form, make up, compose, comprise, represent.
Example – •combine to form (a whole).
“there were enough members present to constitute a quorum”
2. – give legal or constitutional form to (an institution); establish by law.
Example – “the superior courts were constituted by the Judicature Acts 1873–5”
Now Westminster, (wrongly), claims the United Kingdom has no written constitution but the Treaty of Union constituted the United Kingdom.
Now there are only two signatory kingdoms on the Treaty of Union and that means it is legally exactly what the Treaty says it is – a two partner union of kingdoms.
However, there are some other relevant facts. On 30 April 1707 the Kingdom of England parliament put itself into permanent recess and has never sat since. On 30 April 1707 the parliament of Scotland was prorogued and was reconvened by Winnie Ewing as the Holyrood Parliament but no English parliament has been elected since 30 April 1707.
On 1 May 1707 the new parliament of the United Kingdom sat for the first time but it was not legally the parliament of England continued and the proof is in Hansard.
Now of recent months the former Prime Minister and several Westminster Parliament Cabinet Ministers have stated in the House of Commons that any member state in an international Treaty can legally end the Treaty at will without even being required to state a reason and that too is recorded in Hansard.
As far as Scotland is concerned there is a wee fly in the ointment. It is that neither the crown or the parliament are sovereign under Scots law and thus Nicola Sturgeon, or whoever is First Minister, have legal right to end the union without a majority mandate from the legally sovereign people of Scotland.
However, here is another legal fact, Westminster cannot represent either of the two United Kingdom partners in a court of law because legally Westminster is the Union parliament and there is no such thing as a legally elected parliament of England so Westminster would legally be representing both kingdoms and, anyway the UK Supreme Court also represents both partner kingdoms and that cannot be legally allowed.
But wait, it isn’t ended yet. The Queen of England is legally sovereign under English law but not under Scots law where she is legally defender of the people’s sovereignty and thus has conflicting interests.
So under the Geneva Convention, the United Nations and the European Court of Human rights Westminster is signed up to human rights laws the main one of which is that any identifiable people have the right of self determination.
Oh! Did I mention that when the Scottish Law Lord asserted, “The Scottish Claim Of Right”, in court Westminster did not oppose it. Do you know what the Scottish Claim of Right is, Brian?
Perhaps you should look it up for by not contesting it Westminster nodded it through.
Email from Nicola in her Leader of the SNP shoes. …
” Majority now back independence
You might have heard the encouraging news earlier today.
A new poll published this morning shows that a majority of people in Scotland now back independence, and favour a fresh referendum before 2021.
This phenomenal Lord Ashcroft poll has support for Yes on 52 per cent.
More and more people now think it’s time that Scotland took our own decisions and shaped our own future as a fair, prosperous, outward looking nation.
Meanwhile this broken Westminster system is intent on dragging Scotland off a No Deal Brexit cliff edge led by Boris Johnson, a Prime Minister Scotland didn’t elect.
It would be a democratic outrage for any Tory government to deny the people of Scotland a choice, and this poll shows such an anti-democratic position is completely unsustainable.
But more work is required. I need your help to grow support for independence further still. I am asking you to share the independence pledge at http://www.yes.scot with your friends and family today.
The more pledges we get, the more people we can inform about the positive case for Scottish independence.
With your help we will put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands.
Nicola Sturgeon
Leader of the SNP “
Well, when are we actually going to physically vote to get our Independence? Surely it can’t be delayed for much longer ?
Kilmarnock football club have refused to accept responsibility for the weakness of their turnstyles as visiting Rangers fans smashed their way through them in their *excitement* to see the game yesterday the BBC has confirmed, and that Rangers fans were kept waiting too long due to compulsory searches for incendiary devices
In a last moment of *exuberance* when Rangers scored the vital goal to win the match Rangers supporters surged forward and were forced on to the roof of a structure housing disabled fans which because of it’s poor construction led to its collapse and injury of one supporter inside
Y’see there’s what you’re up against in Scotland apparently it was all the fault of Kilmarnock Football club that their ground was invaded, their turnstyles smashed and their disabled viewing access was crushed and damaged by Rangers supporters *exuberance*
Are there really some folk not getting this yet
A big turd has blocked ma Lavy pan!…does this mean I have to knock doon ma hoose??
Beautiful! Fuck off england.
@HYUFD says: 5 August, 2019 at 5:24 pm:
” … The Ashcroft poll is actually 46% Yes including Don’t Knows, where the 8% who are Don’t Know go will be crucial. Yes has not got over 50% yet.”
Oh! Dear! Did you perhaps mean, “Yes has not got over 50% yet.in any opinion polls I’ve seen”?
However, you don’t say if you have seen all opinion polls.
Why do folk think the BBC in Scotland works so hard at selling British nationalism, apart from it being required by their royal charter? Why did they sell Farage and the full-English Brexit as wholesome, and a vote to leave the EU, simply a matter of cultural taste and patriotism? It is because the British state can only make claims to being a liberal democracy, the full-English Brexit highlighting it is, in fact, a right-wing, English, despotism.
Britania waves the rules, as always. Such is the solidity of British cultural patriarchy.
link to medium.com
TheBuchanLoony
Depends whether it’s an SNP turd, or not.
“Old Pete says:
5 August, 2019 at 6:04 pm
Well, when are we actually going to physically vote to get our Independence? Surely it can’t be delayed for much longer ?”
Be patient, Old Pete. There is still plenty of room for more “no” and “don’t know” voters to give up on disgust at the clowns at Westminster and move across to the sanity of yes even before the actual campaign starts.
There are still 87 days of the Westminster circus performance left and they are gearing themselves up to go away with a big, I mean huge, bang. Let the clowns do the campaigning for us, Old Pete, since they are so keen.
STV does an amateur job of admitting Scotland is saying YES to Independence even though they use Professor Poultice to convolute the numbers he agrees that it is the case if the vote were today Independence would win
If even the good Professor Poultice says so who represents Yoonland fact, then it’s a big fact……Fact!
Any minute now Yoon world will be insisting on tablets of stone sent by God written in ancient Saxon that say 60% is required but only if it’s a Tuesday in March on a full moon and all by postal vote and must exclude all known Nationalists
Well at least STV reported on the poll and Prof Curtis humphed and hawd finally shrugged that it was good news for the YES side. 🙂
Mind you, they went full tonto on the hospital story with lashings of experts, like the union man and a couple of bewildered members of the public and Monica Lennon as the Labour cherry on the top! 🙁 FGS!
Some more facts. Fact.
hira.hope.ac.uk/1822/1/Brexit%20and%20SQ%20SCorbett.docx.pdf
Well the ultra unionist STV news didn’t disappoint, they ran as their top story the hearsay that the Edinburgh Sick Kids new hospital might need to be pulled down.
Not one shred of substantiated evidence was forthcoming by the unionist news channel.
Edinburgh children’s hospital.
Who were the architects/engineers in charge? Who were responsible for the signing off documentation?
Therein lies the initial Investgation.
Well done you beat me to it Dr Jim haha I was going to say STV said the Poll was conducted the day after Boris was in Scotland as usual no one polled me .By coming round the doors like they used to.
And only brief mention of Tesco job losses and no mention on National news of Harland and Wolf in administration
Forget this, even momentarily, Scotland, at your peril.
“Perfidious Albion is a pejorative phrase used within the context of international relations diplomacy to refer to alleged acts of diplomatic sleights, duplicity, treachery and hence infidelity (with respect to perceived promises made to or alliances formed with other nation states) by monarchs or governments of the UK (or England prior to 1707) in their pursuit of self-interest.
Perfidious signifies one who does not keep his faith or word (from the Latin word perfidia), while Albion is an ancient and now poetic name for Great Britain.”
link to en.m.wikipedia.org
Knuckle-dusters more newsworthy than Scotland’s potential.
Lord Ashcroft a specialist on reverse psychology, we’ll have to beware.
Re the hospital,
Is Waterson an example of a high powered union official?
He disnae even know how drains work!
I volunteer he GETS an enema.
Sorry, Knuckle-draggers.
@Hamish100
He’s certainly an ‘enema’ of the SG and the SNHS and independence but a reader of the Herald which makes him an expert go to person!
Another common BritNat ploy. In no real election or referendum do the don’t vote/don’t knows included in the final result
And yet, when analysing polls in an attempt to deduce support for the various opinions/parties, the BritNats think we should keep the don’t vote/don’t knows figures in!
Results in real votes are based only on folks who select a valid option/party. To get a feel how that might play out based on polling data, why would anyone sensibly keep the don’t vote/don’t knows in!?
52% of those who selected a valid option said, chose YES. Any other jiggery pokery is bollocks.
Whitehall, BBC Broadcasting House and Pacific Quay form a Bermuda Triangle in which dozens of pro-indy polls or SG success stories have mysteriously disappeared over the years.
Maybe Channel 5 will be doing a documentary about these strange phenomena.
If he were serious about polling, Lord Ashcroft might consider a poll of the 60 or so former colonies of the ‘British’ Empire, and seek their advice to Scotland on the subject of Independence and ending the Union.
But neither he, nor any other polling organisation, will be doing that anytime in the next few years, for the obvious reasons.
Lord Ashcroft will not be doing Scotland any favours whatsoever re Independence. Including in his polling ‘results’.
Further, it will only take another poll in the next few days, from a different company, which shows a less favourable result for Yes, or a favourable result for No, to effectively counter the impact of the Ashcroft poll.
@ Robert Peffers
Nice to see you contributing to debate again, sir.
As it’s you Robert:
link to thenational.scot
The poll:
link to scotgoespop.blogspot.com
Incase anyone missed it here Prof. Robertson burst the BBC’s completely unsubstantiated claims on the Edinburgh Sick Kids hospital.
link to thoughtcontrolscotland.com
Back to your usual Anglophobic shite @Reluctant Nationalist says at 6:12pm
How about you fuck off?
@HYUFD
The don’t knows may end up not voting, it may just be too difficult. For an explanation of this principle I suggest you contact Kirstene Hair MP.
Re Ashcroft’s poll . . . Mark Diffley (polster) has pointed out that 16 and 17 yr olds have been omitted. So the further in the future Indy Ref2 is the more Yes shoild benefit from this omission.
Maria F I have no doubt that the Brexit vote + No Deal would make a second independence referendum closer (though 68% of Scottish Leavers still back No even if 59% of Scottish Remainers now back Yes) but as you say if the Don’t Knows all go No, No would win 51% to 49%. That is exactly the margin No won by in Quebec in 1995 when Yes to independence from Canada led most final polls but No won 51% to 49% thanks to Don’t Knows going their way
Apparently the BBC have guidelines that they stick to religiously, like not relying on a single unsubstantiated source to run a headline story. If the hospital is not ‘pulled down’ can we then file this under fake news.
As someone has noted on twitter has UNISON declared their position on the Whaley Bridge dam and whether it needs to be pulled down, and why has the BBC not given us the UNISON gossip about what needs to happen and who should resign.
HYUFD
So do you think it morally justifiable that right-wing English populism harms Scotland’s civil society, Toryboy?
I think, at this stage, Craig Murray’s take on this whole thing is exremely pertinent.
Go have a read if you haven’t already.
It’s a case of, we can’t save England from themselves, it’s no longer feasible, or appropriate or in Scotland’s interests to make the case for Brexit being cancelled, it will not be cancelled, end of.
Still, hold steady, a few obstacles to manoeuvre around yet!
Let’s hope the 92% of SNP who DO want independence, have some good ideas and plans up their sleeves!
HYUFD
Is this what you support? Is this what you would impose on Scotland?
Understanding the Mainstreaming of the Far Right
Aurelien Mondon is Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Bath. Working with Aaron Winter, his work looks at the relationship between the far right and the mainstream, with a particular focus on racism. Aaron Winter is Senior Lecturer in Criminology at University of East London. Together with Aurelien Mondon he is currently working on the book Reactionary Democracy: populism, racism, the far right and ‘the people’.
It is essential to move beyond electoral politics to understand the way the far right is being mainstreamed. It involves asking, “is there any such thing as public opinion” ?
link to blogs.bath.ac.uk
16/17 year olds vote last time was huge for YES. If that section of Scottish voters has been omitted in this poll, does it not stand to reason, like, a rational, logical conclusion, that YES is now way ahead of the British nationalists’ no vote.
Hmm, there must be some very worried Britnat troughers on their fancy hols now absolutely panicking. They will all sleep well the night, not!