The success story
We couldn’t help but raise a quizzical eyebrow at this assertion from SNP MP Pete Wishart in today’s Sunday National.
It was said in the specific context of securing a second indyref in 2020, and since such a referendum has NOT in fact been secured – and looks extremely unlikely to be – we wondered which other definition of “success” might be being used to justify the claim.
Logically the only one left would be an increase in support for independence. So we checked the figures.
They’re… not exactly spectacular.
In fact, in the three and a half years since the UK voted to leave the EU and to take Scotland with it against Scotland’s clearly-expressed will, during which time the UK has seen what by widespread consensus has been the worst government and opposition of all time, support for independence has rocketed by, er… 0.6%.
Now, to be fair to Wishart, on an annual basis that IS an “all-time record high”. But the standard margin of error in a 1000-sample opinion poll is 3%, and that margin covers almost the entire range in polling (45.2-48.5) over those four years.
In other words, it’s not actually definitively possible to state whether support for independence has increased or decreased since June 2016 at all.
But what we CAN say is that if it’s moved at all, it’s been by so little that it’s barely perceptible without a microscope. It seems safe to say that in the absence of an actual campaign for an actual referendum, the Scottish people have remained extremely unmoved on the subject, despite a string of events that we were repeatedly assured would be gamechangers.
It does, on the positive side, look like 2019 saw a decent 3% growth from 2018. But again, that’s within the margin of error and covers up a lot of fluctuation. If we take a fixed comparison point and count only the polls from December each year, we get this:
The conclusion is extremely hard to avoid: if the “strategy” is to build support for independence over time to a point where a second referendum will be politically irresistible (which in itself makes a hugely questionable political assumption), then the strategy is not working.
The figure of 60% is often used to illustrate a tipping point when the UK government will, for some unexplained reason, be forced to give in. At the current rate of progress, assuming no setbacks, we’ll reach that point in around 26 years.
So, y’know, settle in for a wait, folks.
You’re right , their strategy is going nowhere.
We’re going to have to rely on “Events dear boy, Events”!
It does, on the positive side, look like 2019 saw a decent 3% growth from 2019.
Typo- guess you meant 2018?
I’ve come to the conclusion that nobody actually wants independence. What they DO want is a return of the feel good factor, the hope, the brightness, the carnival atmosphere of the 2014 referendum.
If people wanted independence, they’d be angry and they’d be fucking marching on Bute House demanding the SNP get off their arses and actually take action instead of muttering platitudes every time they need to raise some extra cash.
I am absolutely FURIOUS at the SNP.
In reply to J Galt @1.32
I think those events are starting to happen as we speak, The Orange Blimp over the water is Playing some very dangerous games and the possibility of all out war in the middle east looks more and more likely by the day.
The latest announcement is that “Our Boys” in the royal navy are heading out there to “Protect” our shipping.
I’t might be time to get our flak jackets and tin hats ready.
Meanwhile EU citizens are leaving in their (apparently) thousands.
So good luck all with the patient waiting through a rampant Tory government at Westminster and an equally rampant MSM that will try their damnedest to keep the ‘Union’ alive.
At aged 55 I’ve cashed in my Guinness pension and reckon I’m off.
That would fit in with the ‘free in 93’ slogan, in 26 years I will be in my 93rd year. Although my family history would suggest seeing independence would be an unlikely scenario for me personally.
Trump is about to blast Iran with 2 trillion dollars worth of new whiz bangs. Johnson will commit the UK to the war; his Blair Moment in history.
They are mad psychopaths.
Support for Independence will rise sharply before the end of January when Trump Shocks and Awes Teheran, probably within days now.
An SNP Administration has acted as a buffer against WM Cuts policies since 2007; they are doing the ‘day job’ pretty well IMHO, as well as serving the needs of ALL Scots citizens.
You won’t find a Brit Nat supporter insisting on paying for their kids Tuition fees, paying a toll on our bridges, or handing over money at the chemist when they collect their prescription.
Events, dear Stu, events.
It is coming to a very dramatic head before the daffodils bloom.
[…] Wings Over Scotland The success story We couldn’t help but raise a quizzical eyebrow at this assertion from SNP MP Pete […]
Well it all depends how you define “success” don’t it?
Success for the SNP to secure dominance for the next 5 years, maintain its feminist / PC / woke agenda (Incidentally driving a horse and carriage through the safety of real women!) and keep their noses in the trough.
We see you!
It would be interesting to know since 2014:
A) How many new 16 and 17 year olds are added to the electoral register
B) The number of EU nationals in Scotland. A decrease?
c) the increase in the number of “British” voters who have relocated from “southern Britain” to “northern Britain”.
If C is greater than A, and B is less than in 2014, I don’t see those figures looking good for the indy campaign, assuming one ever happened.
And, any increase has been down to Tory policies, not SNP strategy. Pete Wishart is a fantasist
Forgot D)
the number of elderly (overwhelmingly No voters), who have left the electoral roll.
another 26 years would mean 32 years in total from 2014 so in effect a generation. Maybe thats been the plan all along after 2014, once in a generation. However the wokey youth in SNP today will likely be senior SNP by then and ruined any chance of being taken seriously.
Yup.
There are two things that are true of the situation, in my view:
I) “Yes” would be pretty revolutionary, at least in constitutional setup terms;
II) the SNP have continually portrayed Brexit as a disaster.
But they seem to expect to be able to take that revolutionary step by not making any waves and not making it happen but letting events dictate to them and crossing their fingers.
This is hopeless for two main reasons.
The first is that they have gone on like Brexit is a disaster, yet now seem to lack any urgency to avoid it, or at least avoid feeling its effects for very long. This creates a credibility issue. Was it not an urgent matter to avoid Brexit effects after all?
Furthermore, I think mewling and complaining from the sidelines looks weak. They should be projecting confidence through their actions that they are ready to govern Scotland as an independent country and taking all steps (and taking no shit from Westminster) to do so. How are residents of Scotland as a whole supposed to be confident when those whose political goal is independence don’t display any in achieving it, appearing to defer to Johnson et al?
I always think I remember Nicola Sturgeon saying of indyref 2 at the abortive attempt that “sometimes you have to do something just because it’s the right thing to do” in an acknowledgement that politicians sometimes have to chart a course and then persuade instead of only giving voters what they already say they want (or understand that they need, for that matter. This is something the Labour Party ought also to learn, for what it’s worth).
I could be misremembering that and she may never have said it (rewatching the speech would confirm) but the article confirms that support is increasing glacially and that it’s what they SHOULD be doing. If Brexit is going to be as bad as the SNP have always claimed, they MUST push Indy post-haste as the right thing to do, and attempt to persuade the waverers during a campaign, or lose lots of credibility.
In my opinion.
So why the apparent disconnect from reality? Clearly the upper echelons of the SNP view the world in a different way from the rest of us. So what are they seeing that gives rise to such optimism that the current approach is working?
No secret strategy need be revealed just a few simple statements describing which way the tide is flowing. That would be enough to let the rank and file know they everything is under control.
Well, Mr. Wishart?
Well going for indyref2 at the moment would be a bad idea as there is a good chance of losing. That being the case why if the Rev so keen on pushing ahead now.
We have to play a longer game and convince people of the benefit of Indy
We need the fishermen and farmers to realise their error in supporting the union and to convince pensioners their children’s future is with indy
This is when countries used to turn to the United Nations to solve or at least paper over serious flashpoints. That doesn’t happen any more, so we as a world community no longer have that safety net.
The United Nations began to deteriorate many years ago when the United States delayed paying its annual dues, becoming years in arrears. First humanitarian projects suffered. Then when the organisation became ineffectual in dealing with crises like the first Iraq war it lost the trust that smaller countries had in its abilities to perform some sort of policing.
The UN is now all but dead. Nobody sees it as neutral. It has no power of its own. The League of Nations withered just as the military catastrophes of the 1930s began.
Five days into a new year and the world safety barometer has dropped like a stone.
Irrespective of their current strategy(or lack of) SNP whilst the dominant political force in Scotland should have put to bed the lie that Scotland is subsidised by England/britain.
If they can’t get the truth across whilst in power that the british are lieing thieving bastards then no one will.
I recall an Adan Bolton interview with Wishart where Wishart acquiesced that Scotland benefitted from ‘ redistribution according to need’.
This lie has to be put to bed now once and forever. Independence or not.
The british state are lieing thieving paracites. End of.
What he said.
Mist001 says:
5 January, 2020 at 1:38 pm
I’ve come to the conclusion that nobody actually wants independence. What they DO want is a return of the feel good factor, the hope, the brightness, the carnival atmosphere of the 2014 referendum.
If people wanted independence, they’d be angry and they’d be fucking marching on Bute House demanding the SNP get off their arses and actually take action instead of muttering platitudes every time they need to raise some extra cash.
I am absolutely FURIOUS at the SNP.
Shug @2:18pm:
No, I’m sorry.
The SNP cannot magic away Brexit, which they have spent years saying was going to be a disaster, and that independence was needed to avoid it or its worst effects, just because the line hasn’t pushed support above 50% and a “reset” would be nice.
If Brexit happens, then one of two things follows:
I) it’s as bad as predicted, at which point many voters will shout that they should have been warned/that the SNP should somehow have got them out of it. Whether it’s fair comment or not, and whether some people would ever have listened, will be moot. If we are lucky, support for independence might increase but I wouldn’t like to count on it; it’s at least as likely that the SNP will be punished by voters for not acting sooner;
II) Brexit somehow goes well, in which case many waverers will just think there’s no need for Indy.
But in any case, this cannot be magicked away. They’ve been shouting for too long that Brexit will be terrible. That cannot easily be ignored now just because “that line of attack didn’t work, we need some new arguments for the longer term”.
There is a live situation in the form of Brexit. The SNP set out their stall (commendably enough, when you watched how the Labour Party dealt with Brexit) and now must keep following through with it or face a dramatic loss of credibility.
@Shug, most non-political people [fishermen and farmers and all the others] only resolve finally their views when there is a date fixed for a vote.
Waiting for polls to shift is not the answer.
Having said which, what should/can a responsible peaceful Scottish Government do to prepare in practical terms for declaring that Scotland dissolves the Union? They have no armed forces, Civil Defence units, Navy, finance gathering or banking systems, or public broadcasting, so if Westminster play tough, what can the SG do to protect our independence?
These are the issues that I suspect the SG is thinking about. Would it not be irresponsible to act differently as things now are? Much as I would like them to be bold.
What if:
BJ either replies to Nicola’s s30 request letter with a big fat NO,
or
doesn’t reply at all by deadline of 23.00 on 31/01
then
Nicola immediately announces that as WM has refused to allow a ref, she will act on Scotland’s overwhelming 62% mandate to stay in the EU and has submitted an application for Scotland’s continuous membership to the EU.
EU agree Scotland being in an EU ‘holding’ situation until Scotland/England treaty uncoupled and negotiations can begin.
WM screams and froths – Nicola shrugs, ‘so sue Scotland’.
(Is there a clause in WTO rules that you can’t enter into WTO rules if you have any border disputes, which could also come into play. I may be misremembering here.)
This may all be just a dream, but, nothing wrong with having dreams. 🙂
It is highly likely that previously discredited (ahead of 2014 by all the main pollsters) Westminster past vote weighting in Scotland was the reason why the 2019 SNP share was consistently underestimated in polling by 1-7% (so readily 4% on average). Far too many people claimed to have voted SNP in 2017, yet the same group recalled 2016 and the EU perfectly, resulting in significant Yes/SNP down-weighting.
We can assume the Yes vote since 2017 is very likely to have been underestimated by similar levels for the same reason.
This would apply only post-2017 because 2015 and 2016 VIs were similar, so you don’t get recall discrepancy. 2017 false recall was a consistent problem once Westminster and Holyrood SNP shares diverged from 2017, mainly driven by a low turnout for SNP coupled with last minute tactical voting. Too many claimed to have voted SNP when in fact they didn’t turn out, or they ‘supported’ the SNP, but in fact tactically voted Labour.
So, Yes may have been in narrow majority for some time now, i.e. before the Tory landslide + confirmation of brexit. This would be consistent with a notable rise in support over the course of 2018/2019 which is not visible because of weighting problems. It would also be consistent with great reluctance about granting a Section 30.
As Holyrood 2016 and Westminster 2019 SNP shares have converged again, polling should be more accurate going forward.
“the reason why the 2019 SNP share was consistently underestimated in polling by 1-7%”
This stuff is wishful fantasy. The average SNP share in polls during the campaign was 42%. The normal margin of error is 3%. So the polls were accurate within the margin of error. More commonly the SNP vote has been overestimated, last month it was underestimated. Normal variance.
(It may also be worth noting that Panelbase consistently report lower support for the SNP than other pollsters, and the lowest two of the six Scotland polls in the campaign were both Panelbase ones.)
In reply to Blackhack @ 1.40pm
After all WW1 was the catalyst for Irish Independence…
In reply to Jack Collatin at 1.56pm
What you say is very plausible, however what if the SNP heirarchy back Johnson just like they did over the Skripal nonsense?
Do you think that Alex Salmond would have liked to start from 48.5% yes in the 2014 Independence referendum??
FFS SNP, do something!
In 2014 44.7 % voted YES. In 2019 the polls tell us that 48.5% would vote YES. That’s nearly a 5% increase in spite of the relentless media campaign against the SNP and the YES movement. A campaign should certainly boost the YES total.
But, we are still in the EU. This is the 5th January. Scotland is still on holiday. Calm yourselves.
A very timely piece of hard hitting analysis. No-one crunches the numbers like the Rev – there will be people in the SNP who absolutely detest him for it.
One way they could (and should, IMO) hold their current policy/plan and at the same time take the wind out of those criticising, is to follow the advice from Robin McAlpine – he stated, you cannot cover all the ground necessary to inform the people of Scotland about the true state of Scotland’s affairs, in the period of a Referendum – you need to cover the bulk of that ground before then.
The British Establishment knows this full well, which is why the BiasBBC has never taken its foot off the gas since 2014.
We may not have a date, but be can and should be in full campaign mode – with the SNP leading that in every demonstrable way.
Not to do so, is a failure of leadership on an appalling scale.
Things we know – England cannot afford to lose Scotland – not at present for our Oil and Gas reserves are the only thing supporting the £, not in the future, when our renewables 4 x bigger than the oil and Gas will keep them afloat, and not for the wealth of our water – the worlds future gold – 90% of which is in Scotland. And on an emotional level – not from a matter of pride, the English boot on Scotland’s neck, the original colony, topping off the British map and providing heather clad estates to retire to.
The British Estate is like a trapped rat at the thought of losing Scotland. And trapped rats are like babes in the wood compared to the British establishment’s history of murderous dirty tricks.
We would be naive not to assume they will nobble the SNP. Their plan would be to make it so it becomes impossible for reasonable person to continue to support or vote for the SNP – this is what they did to Labour.
All credit to the SNP – I doubt very much if they could be bribed, or corrupted. That would leave a more brutal method – threaten their loved ones, or their reputation – a rigged trial perhaps.
If you were threatened by the British Establishment, if they threatened an accident to your children, your loved ones – and all they asked of you to prevent it, was to water down the rhetoric, a more gradual approach, would that not be a price you could pay, and still look yourself in the mirror.
The critics would never be sure if powder was being kept dry or punches being pulled.
The Yes movement will have to do the heavy lifting all the way, and we should be prepared, save posters up that you like and print them off at home. If The Orange Madman’s Middle East Madness escalates, it will become a time of emergency and sites like this will be the first to be shut down.
And on the subject of imminent war – if you think about it – our former No voters – were the most conservative (with a small c) of society. I don’t think they are going to appreciate seeing tweedle trump an tweedle boris at the helm of this crisis. Which might explain the lack of stmts from no 10 at present.
Wonder what would happen (wishful thinking I know) if Nicola offered an free loan to any Scottish Soldier to buy themselves out of the firing line of this conflict. Cannon Fodder No More. I’d crowd fund for that one.
Anyway, just some thoughts on this New Year. Best wishes to all.
J Galt@2.56 What benefit to the cause towards Scotland’s independence would have supporting Russia in the Skripal poisoning or supporting Iran in this situation do? Why inevitably get involved in a tabloid shitstorm for no reason to gain anything?
I’m wondering if when a date is announced for the next indyref if support will rise then, people tend to be lethargic on the matter until they get closer to polling day.
Seeing the light at the end of the tunnel tends to give one a boost, in this case I’m hoping its the Yes camp.
I get sick of all the ‘opinion poll’ figures for Indy!!
Any (and all) polls can be manipulated by the organisations doing the choosing. Do we really base our plans on what (in the main) are establishment organisations telling us what people think?
WE are deluded if we do.
We had an election less than a month ago. The SNP won 80% of the seats on a manifesto spelling out that a vote for the SNP was a vote for a referendum in 2020.
The Tories campaigned solely on one issue – send Nicola Sturgeon a message that you don’t want Indyref2. They failed spectacularly.
The exit polls were in fact predicting that the SNP would win 55 seats. How much more evidence do you need that the Scottish people are backing the SNP in this fight?
There’s a YES march in Glasgow next Saturday. If you want to demonstrate support, get out there and march. I meet people who are now committed YES supporters who would never have voted YES in 2014.
“Support for Independence will rise sharply before the end of January when Trump Shocks and Awes Teheran, probably within days now.”
Jesus fuck, no it won’t.
It didn’t leap up when the Tories won in 2015 when we’d all been told Labour would.
It didn’t leap up when the Smith Commission wiped its arse on The Vow despite Scotland sending 56 SNP MPs to London to uphold it.
It didn’t leap up when the UK voted to leave the EU.
It didn’t leap up when Scotland was told to sit down and shut up and let the grown-ups handle Brexit.
It didn’t leap up when Theresa May sold out to the DUP and Scotland’s 13 Tory MPs couldn’t even get us an equivalent bribe in return for their support.
It didn’t leap up when the UK government retrospectively changed the law to enable a massive Westminster power grab from the Scottish Parliament.
It didn’t leap up when BORIS FUCKING JOHNSON became Prime Minister.
These are all the things I refer to in the article, that we were told would be the trigger for a huge shift in indy support and which actually made no difference whatsoever. You seriously think yet another war in the Middle East will change everyone’s mind? As far as most folk are concerned we’ve been more or less permanently at war in the Middle East since 2001. Sober up, man.
“In 2014 44.7 % voted YES. In 2019 the polls tell us that 48.5% would vote YES. That’s nearly a 5% increase”
It’s soul-destroying that after eight years Wings hasn’t taught people to analyse better than this, it truly is. I can’t be here to hold your hands and spell it out forever, sooner or later you’re going to have to work out how to do it for yourselves.
Compare like with like. On the morning of the indyref the poll of polls stood at 48%. We didn’t actually achieve that, because it’s almost universally true that the change option suffers a bit of a drop on polling day when people get cold feet.
And now the polls stand at… 47%. Whoop de doo.
“Well going for indyref2 at the moment would be a bad idea as there is a good chance of losing. That being the case why if the Rev so keen on pushing ahead now.”
For Christ’s sake, READ THE DAMN WORDS. Opinion only moves when there’s a campaign. If there’s no referendum people don’t pay much attention because it’s all just a load of pointless talk.
I agree we need a formal campaign to move the polls just like we managed last time from 30% to 52% before the Infamous Vow (it must be preceded by that word every time).
I think if we had a formal campaign we could move the polls to 60% in about 6months or longer depending on when the actual vote is. Getting some folk to pay attention unless the vote is actually imminent is alway hard in my experience from last time even here in the Yes City.
@ Rev Stu – to compare like with like we would have to be on the eve of poll. We’re not even out of the EU yet, far less campaigning and months away from an eve of poll poll. All we have ATM are the figures you give from unknown source starting at 2016.
If the SNP don’t push hard now for independence then fence sitters are not going to commit to Yes. You create a majority for indy, you don’t wait for it to appear.
Mass politics responds to events although individuals may be persuaded by arguments.
Our movement is quite good at reaching the individuals, major events are beyond our control.
But – Brexit, the vagaries of a reactionary government led by a lazy narcissist and a very possible big war in the east may bring big changes.
The SNP leadership does have serious issues including emerging careerism,since the mass membership arrived, and the stultifying effects (self inflicted) of the neo lib Growth Commission but also another which is rarely spoken of and usually danced around when it is.
What we are trying to do hasn’t been done before.
Several above have talked about our “revolution”. The SNP is a wholly parliamentary democratic movement and always has been. It’s no good talking about the end of Czechoslovakia ( both sides wanted separation) or Sweden/Norway on 1905/6. In that case although Norwegians voted by about 98% for separation, and each country had it’s own armed forces, the Swedish state considered military intervention and the trenches were being dug by the time that the king of both countries made it clear that he would rather have separation than a bloodbath.
Unlike the Norwegians of 1905 we don’t have state power !
The SNP is locked into trying to achieve revolutionary objectives by parliamentary democratic means.If it tried anything radically different the party and its support base, as presently constituted, would shatter. Perhaps I’ve missed something and someone can tell us when this has been done ?
We talk about the UK being, de facto, a unitary state and we’re correct. The politically smart among our opponents see this contradiction that we’re in;thus the ‘let the jocks stew’ strategy. They would love some numpty to blow up a few pylons.
Maybe we can overcome the contradiction and be the first but, to do so we need major events and unfortunately we have to wait for them to happen. Meanwhile, make the arguments and win the individuals. A lot of the rest is the hot air of, understandable, frustration.
Around 57% Yes will be the key figure, not 60%. If polls are consistently 57-43 or better, that’s when the moral pressure on London really heats up.
Those bad polls in December were conducted by companies who at the same time were seriously underestimating SNP support. Even Curtice acknowledges that support for indy is around 50%.
We’ve now had an SNP landslide and a Tory landslide that will keep them in power for the forseeable future. Brexit begins in days. Hard to see any of this reducing support for indy. Would anyone be surprised at a poll in February showing Yes at 53%?
Getting up to 57%+ may require a post-Brexit economic meltdown, though, which is another reason it might be better to wait until 2021 for iref2. And maybe by that time that Saxe-Coburg-Gotha woman might have passed away and been reborn as a filarial worm.
“One such parasite is the almost too-weird-to-be-real filarial worm and, yes, it does affect humans.
“After a year spent bumming around in our bodies, the worms mature into adults and finally take up the job they were born to do, by moving into the lymphatic system. Doesn’t sound so bad…
“Well, here’s the thing. The lymphatic system keep excess fluids moving out of your body. It’s one of those unnoticed bodily tasks that you don’t appreciate until it stop working. Like if, say, a bunch of worms clogged it up. The filarial worm does just that, bunches of them all working hard in the vessels near the lymph nodes, causing those vessels to become obstructed and inflamed. Shit starts backing up, and the tissue starts inflating like a freaking balloon.
“Finally, you wind up with massive and debilitating enlargements of the legs and genitals, a condition commonly known as Elephantitis.”
link to cracked.com
“The average SNP share in polls during the campaign was 42%.”
Be careful with averages, they don’t have a lot of meaning in polling. Not unless you have a lot of polls done in all sorts of different ways all at the same moment. Best consider the range and clustering too. That aside, I suggested the average error was about -4% (SNP share -1% to -7% out). You are suggesting 3% (45-3 = 42%). I don’t see how this really differs; you are agreeing with me.
If the prospect for Scots in 2014 had been vote No for Scotland to be out the EU and governed by Boris Johnson then Yes would have won.
The SNP, the devolutionist party, may have all the time in the world, Scottish nationalists do not.
A strategy that fails to recognize opportunity when it sweeps in the door has macular issues.
Once the Indy starting gun has been fired, we will see a overwhelming surge in support, that’s the feeling I have gathered from Indy hub meetings and manning stalls etc. over the past few years.
There are many including myself, who are at the “Why not just grow a pair” regarding the timing.
For me it has to be this year, although an impending illegal war may be the excuse some of the fearties have been waiting for, who in their right mind would want an election in the midst of war? (it would be counter productive)
The longer we leave Indy the less likely we will achieve success, EU nationals (potential yes voters)leaving Scotland daily, being replaced by Southern No voters, and the signs of a weakening SNP government following whatever Westminster say, will simply piss people off.
Over to you Nicola, the nation expects, and as someone posted earlier, every one of the SNP politicians in Glasgow 11th. No Excuses, or are you fearties?
I don’t do Twitter anymore but still keep an eye on what’s happening.
I see @lisanandy has thrown her hat into the Labour leadership challenge, seemingly containing her brain. As part of her rhetoric she’s dredging up the old Labour tripe of appealing to the Scottish electorates sense of comradeship etc. link to twitter.com
Can someone who does do Twitter please forward her this link just to let her know what an utter clueless thick hypocrite she is and how Scotland’s been wise to this particular brand of Labour shite for at least 7-years? link to wingsoverscotland.com
What if….
Johnson does what the Orange Blimp wants and sends troops / ships / uses English air bases to mount attacks on Iran.
Johnson declares a State of Emergency and closes down Holyrood, Stormont and the Senedd.
If this happens what will Scotland do?
Wait for Sturgeon to write a letter?
Wait for Pete Wishart to tell us it’s a waiting game?
Wait for Blackford to be unhappy about something and say something at Westminster?
Wait for Cherry to win a court case?
It’s time the SNP are reminded who they work for!
There was a consistent majority for independence in opinion polls from 1999/2000 then it became fashionable to have three way polling including devolution. I suspect things have been much the same since the parliament reconvened. Around half of Scottish residents want independence with majorities in favour from younger people and Scots born.
Capella says:
5 January, 2020 at 3:35 pm
We had an election less than a month ago. The SNP won 80% of the seats on a manifesto spelling out that a vote for the SNP was a vote for a referendum in 2020.
I must of been on a different planet where the manifesto was….
STOP BREXIT
STOP BORIS
Even candidates stated that a vote fir them was not a vote fir indref2.
This is were the SNP has made a huge tactical error to try use the 2019 results to say that there is a need fir indref2.
Nothing is going to happen without political leadership.
Success is continuing administration of a powerless devolved parliament with a majority of powerless MPs in Westminster.
Shooting the breeze for Scotland.
Forgive my laziness, again…
robertknight says:
13 December, 2019 at 8:16 am
Lets not kid ourselves here people, with the most unpopular Tory PM in a generation and the impending economic disaster that is Brexit, at the very least the SNP should be back up at 2015 levels of support: 56 Seats with 50% of the votes cast of a 71% turnout.
Instead, we’re at 48 Seats with 45% of the votes cast of a 68% turnout.
The SNP should’ve done better
Sorry Pete Wishart, but if what we’re seeing now is the best the SNP has got to offer, then…
What is the point in getting an independence referendum if it cant be won ?
The SNP are playing the right tactic : this time next year the UK will be out of EU and Boris’s brexit will be falling apart. There is no point rushing IndyRef2.0 (as we only get one more shot).
@MIST101
I’ve come to the conclusion that nobody actually wants independence. What they DO want is a return of the feel good factor, the hope, the brightness, the carnival atmosphere of the 2014 referendum.
Exactly it was the summer of love. Gatsby and the green light etc.
Reply to the BuchanLoony @ 3.19pm
I completely agree, a neutral stance on both would be best – not our business, however that’s not what they did over Skripal.
Capella @ 3:06 pm says:
But, we are still in the EU. This is the 5th January. Scotland is still on holiday. Calm yourselves.
The time to do something about EU membership is now. Rest assured that Westminster will be looking for ways to dig a deep a trench between Scotland and the EU as fast as possible to make the hurdle to rejoining the only union worth being a member of sufficiently awkward that waverers start to waver.
Waiting until the last hour on the 31st is absolutely the worst thing to do. If you really want to see the Boris having fits of hysteria then the time to start making overtures to the EU is now. Simply reacting to events is going to be a recipe for disaster.
doug_bryce@4:48
“this time next year the UK will be out of EU and Boris’s brexit will be falling apart. There is no point rushing IndyRef2.0 (as we only get one more shot).”
This time next year, Holyrood will have been stripped of those devolved powers which should have been repatriated from Brussels post-Brexit, the Johnson Govt. will still be telling the FM “Now is not the time” for IndyRef2, and Westminster will be busy cooking up a new constitutional arrangement to lock Scotland into their precious Union Cataluña-style.
The rush is on, whether we like it or not, but a referendum will not be our road out of this mess. The Holyrood election in 2021 will be a more advantageous route – if only those at Bute House have the wisdom to see it.
@ Stuart MacKay – the SNP leadership has been in regular contact with the EU for years. They have sent a Sec 30 request. They have steered a Referendum Bill through Holyrood – awaiting Royal assent. They have won a landslide GE victory on a manifesto of having a referendum in 2020. Keith Brown will be at the AUOB march in Glasgow next week.
This is hardly “doing nothing”.
After 31st January the UK will be in the departure lounge of the EU negotiating the transition. The attitude of the EU will be very different once the UK is officially no longer a member. But until then – we are still in the EU.
@Rev. Stu
“At the current rate of progress, assuming no setbacks, we’ll reach that point in around 26 years.”
First up, I’m more impatient than that too, so I smiled when I that 26 year prediction. It’ll go one of two ways:
1) The youngest baby boomers will be in their mid 80s in 26 years time. The eldest will be over 100. Natural wastage will probably change the Naw to Aye balance more favourably than waiting 26 years.
2) As folk age some become fearties, and change is the biggest fearty of all, and there will always be a broad 50/50 split as the UK Gov (Blue or Red) terrifies the elderly into voting Naw.
Surprise option 3) Events push the votes one way or the other and Indy easily achieved in the next 5 years, or pushed into the long grass.
“Events, dear boy, events”
Fresh Cambridge Analytica leak ‘shows global manipulation is out of control’
Company’s work in 68 countries laid bare with release of more than 100,000 documents
I wonder if they interfere with referendum results.
link to archive.md
Have the SNP blundered tactically?
Should they have just passed on the Tory policies of the bedroom tax, prescription charges, tuition fees etc etc, and claimed that they were powerless to prevent them, blaming the Westminster? And so fuelled the flames of discontent.
Are a large group of the Scottish electorate satisfied with things as they are, see no need to change? And so it will need for them, to experience a fall in living standards, a fall in convenience – no longer EU citizens – to awaken them? The election of Johnson doesn’t seem to have stirred them to protest;- Meantime, back at the ranch –
Juilan Assange is held in a UK security prison for no defensible reason.
A UK citizen and mother is jailed in an Iran prison due to the slack incompetence of Johnson as Foreign secretary.
Alex Salmond trial due
Tommy Sheridon – a major prosecution witness perjured himself for him, consequences? None
The Skripal saga, a UK Pinewoods studio corny B movie . entirely unbelievable.
And now Trump is flexing his military muscles for us all to view – new super weapons – to threaten Iran.Post Brexit, and a “great trade deal” with the USA the UK will be in any no position to disagree with the USA on it’s belligerent behaviour. Huckled is the expression I believe.
And then they came for me.
Scottish nationalists need to get into proactive mode. The SNP is not the standard bearer for independence. It’s a conventional political party serving its own interests.
Why are Scots so wet behind the ears? Get sophisticated for God’s sake.
Time we stopped dancing to the SNP’s apathetic tune.
Are we being had? If so, by whom?
If the SNP leadership offers nothing in the coming months the ‘by whom’ will cease to be mere speculation.
The British state is not going to let Scotland go without a fight.
What’s the chances of Boris deciding to take on Nicola and “get the Nats done”. Do it during the Salmond trial for max effect
What’s the chance of Nicola calling an election for the Scottish Parliament to win an overall majority (with a wings party).Is it any better a mandate than she has at the moment
Does Boris give a F…..??
Capella says: at 5:46 pm
“After 31st January the UK will be in the departure lounge of the EU negotiating the transition. The attitude of the EU will be very different once the UK is officially no longer a member. But until then – we are still in the EU.”
Aye, I’m pretty much waiting till then to see if anything significant arises from the “players” in this game.
I’ve sacrificed the last few years campaigning pretty much full time on the basis of the “Scotland being pulled out the EU against our will” mandate, alongside the “Scotland won’t be taken out the EU against our will” statement, and thus I’ve been conveying in my many conversations the positive aspects of EU membership.
I’ll have been a fucking fool if after all that effort there is actually no plan or mechanism in place for Scotland to effectively maintain our EU membership.
I’m not a natural nationalist, I’m more of an anti-corruptionist, but the only way I can see to dissemble the inherent corrupt nature of the UK is through the political tools at our disposal.
As our Scottish “UK region” is on the weak end of the 10 to 1 democratic deficit in a supposed equal union, it means there’s heehaw chance of us out voting our southern neighbours which would facilitate addressing the corruption, or allowing us to follow the path we actually voted for, so Scottish Indy is the best choice in my view.
If there is no plan after all the numerous electoral efforts we’ve worked extremely hard to give, and believing statements that say Scotland will retain our EU membership, then it seems all we’ve done is give power to more well paid corrupt and disingenuous individuals.
Meanwhile a few examples from the real world:
A young couple with recent born bairn being in limbo for years because they can’t buy a house because they can’t get a mortgage based on dual income when one of them is not a UK citizen.
Or Dutch folk that live here who can’t hold dual nationality having to choose between giving up their Dutch citizenship and lose all the positives that gives them as EU Nationals, or take up shitey UK citizenship.
Or the business that imports large expensive components from countries all over the EU to build their product having relied on being told Scotland won’t be leaving the EU, rather than spending a fortune hiring legal and international trade savvy individuals to work out what the company needs to do to maintain sourcing products from their existing suppliers and the financial tariff and delayed delivery implications they will face should Scotland actually leave the EU.
@ Dan – The SNP must certainly have a plan. I refuse to believe that Nicola Sturgeon, having spent her entire life fighting for independence, would toss it all aside just as success is within her grasp because…big fat salary, wants to work for the UN, too busy with GRA, too feart, too cautious etc etc.
All of these and more can be had with independence.
Of course, I could be wrong. 🙂
I gotta say, if we reach independence in 26 years time, I’ll be somewhat satisfied with that. Obviously sooner is better, but maybe that is the most we can hope for.
Capella @ 5.46
I often wondered if the,Quid Pro Quo,for what would be “preferential” treatment from the EU to fast track Scottish membership after a Yes vote. Was/is that the Scottish Government do everything possible within its own influence to keep the UK in the EU?
Something is being discussed behind these closed doors all that time,and it would explain Nicola’s actions!
And as you’ve said there’s been much contact between Holyrood,the EU and the ( forget the name ) Northern countries council thing….
We…. And I mean WE…not the Scottish Government or SNP high heed yins have nursed oor Indy Ref two and kept it warm!
It’s now part of the discourse,it’s being speculated on main stream again!
For some Indy Ref One came out of the blue, they’d given it no thought and didn’t really see the need to end the Union.Now it’s a choice they know they have.
All in all I’d say that’s not nothing!
I’m quietly confident we’re good to go……
Bloody tragedy if we don’t push this now though!
We’ve stayed the course these last 4 1\2 year’s and we need to make it clear ” 2020 ” they said and we’ll accept nothing less!
Dan I posted this on a previous thread but let me again stick my neck out and give you a scenario that I (to a varying degree) expect will happen after 31st Jan and it will not be coming from the SNP but seeing Nicola’s confidence lately I would not be surprised if she knows its coming…If I were the EU beginning the negotiations with the Westminster Boris government, the first thing I would demand to know is what can they actually deliver as part of any ‘deal’. i.e. Can they cast iron guarantee Scotland’s resources to be included in any future ‘UK’ scenario…AND THEY CANNOT until the Indyref2 problem is sorted. The EU are not daft and they will not sign anything until they know exactly what they are getting in any deal. They know Westminster, Boris and the Tories are all liars. That is why I believe there will be a second Scottish independence referendum around September this year!
Nobody should bet on political outcomes – too chancy. History shows, unfortunately, that nothing has ever been achieved politically, in love or war, by sitting-on-the-fence, by not taking, at some point, a calculated gamble.
The current SNP leadership remind me, collectively, of the General who was afraid to join-battle for fear of being defeated. What the General lacked, of course, was the confidence, passion, courage and essential will to win-the-day.
Dan @ 6.45
I’m on board with your version of Indy Dan.
While I love Scottish Culture that’s an accident of birth.
My main motivation for Indy is a firm belief that to curtail corruption and insist on decent government we, the people, need to bring our government within slapping distance.
Restrain them with a Constitution and teach the mechanisms of how it’s all ” supposed ” to work in schools!
I believe it for everywhere but I live here.
Like an Auld song “sort” of says…
It’s here where my vote lies, and it’s here I’ll be free.. 🙂
@TheBuchanLoony
Yep, clocked your post on last thread.
It does presume there will be trade negotiations between UK and EU to reach a deal.
I’m sure BoJo’s cartel will have considered this Scottish assets in future UK / EU trade deal talks scenario.
But what if it’s a crash out no deal though, with Scotland effectively locked in the UK with no hauners from the EU as the BoJo cartel switches to trade talks with US a la Atlantic Bridge.
Dan @ 7.21
Wouldn’t it be much the same Dan?
Westminster can’t guarantee Scottish resources to the US either unless Scotland is on board with it!
And at this point in time half the country are in no mood to allow it one way or another…
‘The world is over –armed and peace is underfunded $1.17 Trillion spent on arms .The cost of eliminating extreme poverty and hunger- 13% of annual military spend’
link to un.org
‘No one asks how we’re going to pay for a senseless, nearly twenty year long war in the Middle East that has cost not only trillions if dollars, but hundreds of thousands if not millions of lives. No one asks how we can afford to give our oil companies responsible for the destruction of our climate yet another tax payer funded government subsidy’
link to medium.com
‘According to a new study by Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, climate change has made the Western megadrought (the worst in at least 500 years) 38 percent more severe, leading to record low flows in Colorado River and dwindling reservoirs behind Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams… The fires sweeping across New South Wales and Queensland in Australia have already emitted 250 million tons of CO2, almost half of country’s annual emissions…Speaking of ExxonMobil one of their natural gas wells in Ohio released more methane into the atmosphere during a blowout in 2018 than some COUNTRIES do in a year’
link to counterpunch.org
‘Climate change also threatens to fray the United States’ social fabric. Although no region will be spared, some parts of the country—especially the South and the lower Midwest—will likely suffer more from climate change, and poor and vulnerable people across the United States will feel the greatest pain…much of this future damage is preventable. The best approach is also the most obvious: cutting greenhouse gas emissions to arrest rising temperatures. The 2015 Paris agreement on climate change established a global framework for governments to cut emissions, but in 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw the United States from the deal. (He began the formal exit process in 2019.) Washington should return to the Paris agreement and redouble its efforts to reduce carbon emissions’
link to foreignaffairs.com
There is a paucity of political leaders that do not understand nor care that the two biggest threats to the future of humanity and the planet is inequality and climate change. True to form as the planet burns and whole ecosystems turn to ash imbecilic leaders and their supporters revert to the status quo- tactics of denial, war and aggression because they have no answers to these challenges on the domestic or global stage. If world political leaders cannot grasp this they should be removed from office and others should be given the job of responsible leadership.
‘The Conservatives and, to some extent, the Liberal Democrats, despite their differences on Brexit, offer versions of the status quo, with an economy dominated and driven by private interests…But no amount of delusional thinking by Brexiteers can wish inescapable facts of the existing global economic system away…Instead of looking to these ideologues to “take back control”, we need to fundamentally fix the way we run our economies and hand economic power back to the people. ..Add to this the upsurge in demand to tackle climate change by fundamentally transitioning away from a growth-driven carbon-based economic model and it is clear that there is something radical in the air. This, in short, is the case for economic democracy’
link to theconversation.com
‘Anglo-American society is now the world’s preeminent example of willful self-destruction. It’s jaw-dropping folly and stupidity is breathtaking to the rest of the world.
The hard truth is this. America and Britain aren’t just collapsing by the day…they aren’t even just choosing to collapse by the day. They’re entering a death spiral, from which there’s probably no return…Politics, too, has become a sclerotic Soviet affair. Anglo-American societies aren’t really democracies in any sensible meaning of the word anymore. They’re run by and for a class of elites, who could care less, literally, whether the average person lives or dies’
link to eand.co
It is time for Scotland as sabateour to rescue democracy from idiocracy and lead by example. An independent Scotland by whatever means of democratic process- a better Scotland is possible .
‘One of the ways that we used to think about history was through the lens of revolution and counter-revolution…They are things which pretend to be great and glorious revolutions — but which are in fact their precise opposites…Exactly the same is true in Britain. Brexit promised many, many things — but what it really was a kind of peoples’ revolution. A revolution of the pleb dispossessed from capitalisms’ riches…And what does the Brexiter have now? Does he have any of the things his revolution promised him? Not at all…He’s about to have more capitalism — the real thing, vicious, predatory, American style capitalism — not less. The NHS will be broken up and sold off to American hedge funds shortly after Brexit…What few British companies of renown there were left will share the same fate, picked off by American private equity, and the “jobs” they once offered turned into the kinds of abusive, exploitative arrangements Americans now suffer’
link to eand.co
‘Why do the poor keep voting for political parties and corporate bodies that can only exist by exploiting their vulnerabilities and their trust?… In Britain’s context, a generation of men and women are grasping backwards into the UK’s dark history and trying desperately to cling to its power. But the empire is dead — and good riddance…Do Donald Trump, or Boris Johnson have an ideological plan? Of course not. They’re babies of wealth that, for the most part, just want to be more famous than they are — because thats what power does, when it lives as an end rather than a means…1% of the world controls 50% of it’s wealth and owns the majority of its media and technology outlets. And that tiny group of controllers are working overtime in trying to preserve it…A better world is possible. But first, we’re going to need to correctly identify our saboteurs’
link to medium.com
Dan…a crash out looming at the end of this year would concentrate the minds somewhat north and south of the border! And even if we crash out, the Boris brigade will still have to have a ‘deal’ with the EU of some sort or it will be complete chaos! Whatever happens we are a very big bargaining chip that has to be sorted.
Liz g says: at 7:21 pm
“I’m on board with your version of Indy Dan.”
Oh, you do realise you’ll be supporting my quite authoritarian policy on bread slice sizing for efficient uniform toasting and properly sealed toasties…
(Please don’t look at my bank account as I’ve been sucking up significant donations as head of policy for a lobby group funded by Tefal, Russel Hobbs, Bosch, Swan, De’Longhi).
I’ll try to swing by the Wings stall next weekend and say hello if I get a moment spare from bus marshalling duties and keeping tabs on / herding up the coach load of keep fit fanatics that have joined the Indy march movement for the seemingly perpetual exercise routines.
You’ll easily spot me, I’ll be wearing my special invisible Wings bag from the last fundraiser… Stares at Stu…
Scotland will have it’s S30 order. It would be better to have a pan UK S30, no legal battles. The Tories know if Scotland is denied a pan UK S30 order, the likelihood there would be a huge surge for Independence. It would also appear to the public that Scotland is not an equal partner in the UK. Moreover the Tories know full well that an pan UK S30 would mean an independent Scotland would be obliged to pay it’s share of the UK debt. If Scotland gained Independence with just a Scottish only S30, there would be no debt to pay as the international community would recognise Scotland escaping an oppressor state.
My take anyway.
Amazingly, the AUOB have organised their day out marches until October already. They’re on their calendar, so they don’t anticipate any change any time soon either.
Many observers of the Scottish question like to cite comparisons with Quebec.
I was just reading this very interesting article from 2012 on polling since 1988 on the question of sovereignty for Quebec.
link to e-ir.info
The whole thing is of interest but the bit that was of most intrigue for me was that there was 66% support for sovereignty for Quebec in 1990, but they didn’t hold a referendum until 1995 when support had fallen.
Now I don’t know all the reasons for this but it suggests that support can rise without a referendum necessarily being “tomorrow” but that it’s also important to ensure there’s no reason why you might miss the boat, so to speak. It appears that the PQ were not in power at the time support rose and so demands were ignored.
For our purposes, what this means is that the SNP better hurry up and ensure that no-one such at Johnson can ensure the boat is missed. Beyond that, they need to ensure continued power beyond 2021 to keep it “live” and the best way is to deliver the referendum as promised in 2020. I don’t see it happening myself but I think voters are less likely to punish them in 2021 for trying and failing than not trying at all and there’s always the chance that going for it could in fact lead to the big prize being gained.
Liz i love the idea of slapping distance, i always thought of the “half brick” as a good measure.
You know something is wrong with your democracy when parties have to have conferences surrounded by hastely constructed corrigated iron security fences.
Dan @ 7.48
Mind that ye do swing by…. 🙂
Although I just admit, while no looking for the “necessity” of it. .. I’d be pretty much looking fur the fetching pink garment you sported last time 🙂
As fur the toast… Meh… Freedom tae toast as ye will is mair ma style… LOL…
Anyhoo hope the see ye there Dan xxx
donnywho @ 8.18
Thank you for sayin….For me it makes perfect sense,if the Government has to mind what it’s people want, or the people will change them for a government that will…. I don’t think we can go far wrong!
Lots of interesting comment but at the end of the day the SNP plan was to stop Brexit.
Doesn’t seem to have turned out that way.
No harm to Pete Wishart but with 48 seats and 45% of the vote compared to the previous 56 seats an 50% of the vote it’s not exactly the success story that he’d have you believe.
And yet, here we are. Three weeks away from being out of Europe. EU citizens not knowing where they are. But it’s ok we told the ones working in the NHS Dont worry, it’ll be ok. Ditto the universities. Meanwhile, our industries,exports and indeed universities are under threat and taking the hits – and let us remember whisky is now being taxed at +25% by our American trade chums. ( And tell that to the whisky industry as it schedules for a -20% hit on its biggest export market by the middle of this year )
Stop Brexit said Nicola and we didn’t. Yeh, success, real success. But for who?
Capella @ 5:46 pm
And you think that Boris and Westminster will tolerate the SNP taking to the EU during the transition phase while the future of the UK as a whole is being negotiated. I admire your optimism.
Willie ‘the SNP plan was to stop brexit’…or was it? Nicola and everyone else with a political interest knew from early on that Brexit was unstoppable and only a matter of when not if. It was political positioning by the SNP and it worked with a landslide larger than Boris’s. If Boris’s 43% of the vote is a landslide mandate then the SNP’s 45% is bigger than his.
Stuart MacKey @ 8.32
Em.. I think Capella @ 5.46 was talking in the past tense there.
It’s pretty much beyond dispute that the Scottish Government (not as you put it the SNP ) have indeed been talking to the EU.
To the point Westminster in a fit of petulance withdrew diplomatic support!
Also
The recent arrangements with Ireland also evidence this approach…. While an accord between us and Ireland is on going… It’s also easy to see the potential for expansion when Indy is decided!
It also begs the question?
What can Westminster do about it anymore any way?
Threaten to leave the EU??
Fire Nicola,take her passport?…..
As they say…. Bring it on… LOL.. We need 5 totay teeny weeny % + 1 and I don’t care how we get it!
I can see the logic in waiting for the necessary support, but that’s political strategy. I’m concerned about the way British constitutional law is being used to undermine my legal personality, and my capacity to make effective claims to legal and political rights.
Without respect for the intent of constitutional law, rather than the intent of accumulated cultures of legal practice, you might as well insist residents of Scotland wear distinguishing badges to denote our subordinate legal status to English/British nationalists. Without access to legal rights, such as the to a cultural identity, one can not consider oneself either legally free or human.
Legal Personality
link to sciencedirect.com
Stuart MacKay – ‘And you think that Boris and Westminster will tolerate the SNP taking to the EU during the transition phase while the future of the UK as a whole is being negotiated.’ And WM could prevent this dialogue, how? He doesn’t control the EU, and he doesn’t control our govt.
The list from the Rev above, showing all the events once touted by some as “game-changers”, is alarming. It makes one wonder exactly what it would take for the country to get off its knees and take charge of its own destiny. I can only wonder what the wider world thinks of a country that is too cowardly to do just that, despite all of the above events (and they only chronicle the post-2014 environment, far less previous decades).
I have no idea at present how this will all play out, but I do know one thing; if the spectre of another decade of brutal Tory rule doesn’t persuade 50%+1 to vote for independence, nothing short of an apocalyptic event ever will. With that in mind, I’d say Scotland would deserve everything coming to it and can never again complain.
The 2020 Indyref is still on says the FM so I’ll take her word on that
Pete Wishart says a lot of things but he also said that 2020 is winnable
It’s as if some folk don’t want it to happen to give themselves a reason to gripe and proudly boast *I told you so,* if it doesn’t happen I can see a reason to complain about that but folk are Mystic Megging that it won’t and then complaining about the result of their own prediction in advance
It’s a trait attributable to folk who support a team and lose regularly at say football or sports in general, or indeed a nation of people who have no confidence in themselves because they never had any before like many of the nations who were colonized by the *British* because that’s what the British do, they remove a people’s desire, their culture, their very way of life, their drive, until all that’s left is the acceptance of their own miserable existance so much so that only sarcasm over one’s fate is left because it’s all you have, your own self flagellation, and nobody can take that away from you
This politics thing at the moment is out of our hands, we did our bit by voting now it’s up to those we voted for to show they don’t suffer from the Scottish doom syndrome and do what they say they’ll do
I don’t believe the FM is one of those doom laden people, I believe she’ll fight using her style and approach to try to win, she’s not a heavyweight slugger but more of a relentless grinder down of her opponent
Until it doesn’t happen I’ve got no complaint so I’ll reserve my moans until that time
@Liz g at 8:19 pm
Lol, we’re in Scotland and it’s winter, so there’s every chance the Barbapapa cagoule will make another appearance!
Most folk think I’m a prick so may as well dress like one…
@ Capella 3.45pm I made a comment to you at the end of the previous thread , as I said in the comment I usually agree with your posts and again I concur .
I posted previously on a thread exactly what you posted above re the GE win , it is a ringing endorsement of the SNP policies and way forward , which begs the question why is Nicola so reticent to believe that the Scottish people will embrace independence when offered the chance
I know people make the excuse that we are not there yet but as others have posted polls can be manipulated to show various outcomes so do we really believe the polls or are we willing to shit or get off the pot
As I also previously posted I am extremely angry at the SNP’s reluctance or cowardice to confront the lies by ALL the brit nat collaborators , there is no excuse for this failure
Dan @ 9.33
I didn’t think “Prick” when I saw “Barbapapa” …. I did think that’s one very secure guy…. LOL….
Capella, Liz g, TJenny,
I don’t disagree. My general point is that waiting for permission to do things is going to get nowhere. This period could be used to continue “we’re doing everything to avoid Brexit under any circumstances” strategy and take the fight to Boris.
Imagine him choking on his Cornflakes when the Scottish government announces their own transition plan to staying in the EU. Even if this was just an exercise of giving Brexiters a two-fingered salute it would clearly signal that this is not going to be taken lying down or bending over.
Is.anyone aware of the pro-yes party launched in Facebook? Campaign on list only seats.
One for Scotland’s legal scholars and jurists who feel ambivalent about Westminster’s majoritarian abuse of constitutional power. In what way is Brexit compatible with constitutional practice that is commensurable, proportionate, or defeasible? How on earth can Westminster be considered a reliable source of law that is ethical towards Scotland?
Incommensurability, proportionality, and defeasibility
link to academic.oup.com
Chris Downie says:
5 January, 2020 at 9:21 pm
The list from the Rev above, showing all the events once touted by some as “game-changers”, is alarming.
————-
It is indeed. There is always the temptation among political junkies to overestimate the importance for normies of political stuff. Independence vs the Union is just not at the centre of most people’s lives.
Which might be why a Brexit economic collapse may be the only real game-changer, as it will destroy many normies’ lives. Will in fact kill thousands. That tends to concentrate people’s minds.
If such a collapse doesn’t shift the dial then nothing short of a new indyref campaign will.
Chris Downie @ 9.21
Well… I’d complain,that the bit that’s non negotiable.
Independence is NEVER off the table.
I’m not SNP, and I don’t let mere politics get in the way of what’s right.
The 1707 Union was a mistake and no matter how long it takes it should not be left to stand…
Having said that.
The Union was over the day the Vow was made.
They promised something that Westminster is forbidden to deliver,it cannot dilute it’s own Sovereignty.
It’s only a matter of time now…
It’s not giving Westminster the time to wreck what it can’t rule that’s currently urgent!
But it can’t hold us… It never really could.
@Liz g at 9:48 pm
It’s all part of a cunning strategy. I’m starting to wear pink and calling myself Danielle as I morph into a women.
Coz if I’m gonna get fucked by Tory rule and austerity for the next decade, I’m defo wanting the option of multiple orgasms and cheaper car insurance…
As I and others have been saying for some time there is NO strategy, all the SNP have done is react to events. They have done nothing to further independence, in fact Boris Johnson has probable done more.
When interviewed they talk in monotone without passion and belief. Sturgeon wants to avoid independence on her watch and its working.
Heaven help Scotland.
U.M.BDSM Club @ 10.00
I don’t agree.
The non politicos, especially the young are switched off from Indy… That’s true.
I’ve lost count of young people who think that Indy was something that might happen a few years back ( they are, and are supposed to be so self absorbed)
They speak as if it will happen sometime “when” But aren’t motivated to do anything about it anytime soon.
Doesn’t mean they won’t vote for it!!
They just need it put in front of them.
Which
Is exactly what the Revs been sayin… We need to get going because this is the best chance to switch them back on.
But there has to be an actual vote to be working towards…
Dan @ 10.09
Well I’m a bit relieved I must say..
I was worried ye might have sold yerself fur the right kind of Toast.. 🙂
Hi Liz.
I don’t see where you’re disagreeing. I agree with all of this:
“They just need it put in front of them.
Which
Is exactly what the Revs been sayin… We need to get going because this is the best chance to switch them back on.
But there has to be an actual vote to be working towards…”
I’ll try harder to keep the faith but I’m having difficulty reconciling an apparent lack of legal action, with my understanding of how things should be. I think I’m hitting peak flow now, btw. 🙂
Sorry, no open access.
link to tandfonline.com
Dan – l loved that. Hee, hee. 🙂
If you are looking for a british opinion poll to ever tell you that there is a sizeable increase in support for Scottish independence you will be waiting a long long time , til the end of never.
That’s not because there hasn’t been a sizeable increase in support for Scottish independence
It’s because they won’t tell you if there ever is one
They didn’t even tell you that your country had a huge amount of oil and gas
And yet you believe they will be honest about polls
Funny that
Misguided or head in the sand
SNP will have a good accurate way of polling people
They have been at this game a long time
They know what the support for Scottish independence is
They also know the power and ability of the Westminster machine
It’s business controls
It’s banking controls
It’s media controls
SNP expect a greater media onslaught this time round than 2014
Westminster were overconfident 2014
They are not that now
WOS and it’s idea of becoming a political party is not going to happen
It’s easy to start thinking that the same people visiting WOS over and over is a huge portion of Scotland
ITS NOT
It’s good
But not that good that it can do what SNP does
It never will be
Going for LIST seats ? sure is possible but will it work ?
Nobody is sure about that
If you support Scottish independence
You have to support SNP
One without the other is meaningless
Every political party has critics that vote for it
The secret is voice your criticism at the conference or with your pals
But not out in open media where it will be used against the very thing you say you love
SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
The tv , radio , BBC , SKY , all the newspapers will jump on it and use it as proof
that the independence cause is faltering
Infighting
Lack of support
Any cause shouts about it’s good points
That’s s what you should all be doing
You can’t support Scottish independence if you don’t support SNP when SNP are the only party that can get Scottish independence done
Stuart MacKey @ 9.51
I know that the ” permission ” bit rankles.
Which is no necessarily a bad thing 🙂
But… That’s what we voted for in 2014..
We agreed that the Westminster system was just fine with us.
And the Westminster system says we need a section 30.
The real question is … At what point (as is out right ) do we stop agreeing with the Westminster system?
That’s what Nicola/Scottish Government need the majority permission for!
That’s what they’ve been askin us to build!
Right, I must stop now or I’ll be trawling this journal all night. Btw, this is why I’m almost certain that the ambivalent attitude of certain Scottish legal experts towards constitutional justice, is down to their Tory identity. Oh the iniquity of it all. Scotland certainly has some right wankers on the benches, 😉
link to tandfonline.com
P.S. a search for “substantive equality” should prove instructive for those unfamiliar with the law. 😉
@ twathater – I don’t believe Nicola is reticent about the support for independence. I think she is more aware than we are about public opinion. But the SNP are clearly working to a timetable and I trust there is a reason for that. Actually leaving the EU on 31st Jan is part of the timetable. Boris Johnston can still cancel it and we don’t want that to happen.
@ Stuart MacKay – I think Liz g and T Jenny have already answered your point. Westminster can not gamble away Scotland’s assets if Scotland plans to be independent and stay in the EU. That is going to be something of a stumbling block to Westminster’s negotiations and an incentive to the EU negotiators to look favourably on Scotland’s position.
Of course Westminster will be gaming how to counter that. Let’s see what they propose to do about it.
P.P.S. Conservatism does not denote Torydum, which take a particular sort of animal to stomach.
U.M.BDSM Club @ 10.18
OOPs sorry …. My bad..
I was responding to the quote in your post that highlights that most people,aka,normal people aren’t to switched on to every political nuance…which we both can see…
While actually disagreeing with the view, that it will take some pain to shift them…
I think that the Yes votes are there for the taking if we move soon!!
Sorry I wasn’t more clear and I hope you didn’t think I was being disagreeable in my disagreement 🙂
Oh, more corruption, surely not in da wonderful UK, colour me shocked…
“HS2 bosses accused of ‘fiddling the figures’ by review panel deputy chairman
Those in charge of the HS2 project have been been accused of “fiddling the figures” by the deputy chairman of the project’s review panel.
Parliament was “seriously misled” over the costs of HS2, which would be poor value for money and bad for the environment, the former Labour transport spokesman Lord Berkeley has said.“
I think SNP being full time politicians
With nearly fifty people in Westminster and a lot of friends here there and everywhere
will have a pretty good idea what kind of things Westminster intend to do over the next year or two
They will know better than you or I or WOS what lies in wait for the general populous
I think having that information and expertise will put them on the front foot when it comes to choosing when to start a Scottish independence campaign
I’m certain that SNP don’t just sit back and wait for the next daily record Scottish independence poll or the next herald or Scotsman independence poll
SNP will have tried and tested methods of polling
Forget those who say polls are accurate
How would you know ?
You’re just gonna believe them because they tell you how methodical and fair and accurate they are?
You’re gonna believe them because there’s a “ code of practice “ ?
Good luck with that
We’ve seen fiddling with postal votes..nothing done
Politicians breaking the law..nothing done
BBC telling lies…nothing done
Boris Johnson telling lies and breaking rules…nothing done
Scotland’s huge oil and gas wealth hidden by Westminster….nothing done
Scotland’s two thirds majority to stay in EU ignored and brexit discussions taking place and Scotland’s politicians not invited and actually excluded on purpose
Westminster MPs in their hundreds stand up and walk out when SNP stand to talk about Scotland and nothing is done
We see BJ on his mobile phone rudely blatantly in front of the leader of Scotland’s representation in Westminster and nothing is done
Carmichael…nothing done
Dugdale you lost but we will let you off and say you won
And you believe the british media tell you the truth in their tiny miniscule polls
GET REAL
terence callachan – ‘In 2016 HR election, on the list voting, the SNP had 41.7% of votes, the Conservatives 22.9%, Labour 19.1%, Greens 6.6% and Liberal Democrats 5.2%. UKIP led the ‘others’ with 1.9%. This earned the Conservatives 24 list seats, Labour 21, Greens six, SNP four and Liberal Democrats one.’
So the SNP with 41.7% of the vote only got 4 list seats. FOUR!. This is why we need another list only pro-indy party. Like WOS or any other as I can’t see many giving their second vote to the Greens again and they got 6 seats on 6.6& of the vote, nice for them, eh.
I think we need anoter indy party regardless of whether we ge indy or not. Hope Stu’s on the case.
A bit of global publicity for Scotland’s predicament.
“Hollywood actor Brian Cox calls for second Scottish independence referendum
Speaking at the Bafta Tea Party event in Los Angeles, he told the PA news agency: “I would think we need to look at it, I think we need a referendum and see what we think. We’ve been sidelined for so long and treated really not very well. And not taken very seriously.”“
Has anyone else seen messages on Twitter or elsewhere about a gathering outside the Scottish Parliament on Jan 31st to mark the lowering of the EU flag?
TJenny says:
5 January, 2020 at 2:46 pm
“What if….”
Yes indeed, If Boris does not want to play – Big Deal!
It is the Scots who must determine what relationship they want to have with the EU or for that matter
the UK(proprietor HM Queen).
Nicola should open discussions with both parties at once.
If auld Liz cares about her and her offspring’s future relationship with with Scotland and continued use of their holiday homes up here, it should be made clear –
that it would be wiser pull up a chair than a drawbridge.
It would be a terrible waste of the 700th anniversary of the declaration of Arbroath to fail to present her with that choice.
Some might say a betrayal of the signatories and the spirit of the document.
I mean, I’m no brain of Britain or expert in legal philosophy, and i can figure it out. What are these cupid stunts playing at?
Two conceptions of state sovereignty and their implications for global institutional design
link to tandfonline.com
Is Wendy Wood still dead?
She would know how to deal with this situation.
Capella @ 10.47
Exactly… As far as I can see..
Westminster’s only options are to have the referendum and win it, or, convince the EU or the US controlling Scotland’s resources are not a problem..
(I think the Scottish Government have worked to demonstrate that Scottish Resources aren’t a done deal )
IMHO… Westminster are playing for time to put Devo Max together and get a three question ballot.
I also think that there are some in the Scottish Government who would take the Devo Max option and only the Yes movement is in the way of it? The day’s of slipping a clause into an Act that keeps Westminster Supreme are long gone. We’d find it. But we need to be able to expose it while all the broken promises are still fresh!
I do hope I’m wrong!
But either way…. Our best chance is to insist on that referendum this year.
Nicola and the SNP need to start trusting the power of the Yes movement!!
@ Liz g – it’s going to be a long month!
I hope WoS isn’t going to continue to be a platform for anti-SNP whinging. I mean, how upset can anyone get about Pete Wishart being cheerful about success. He just won his seat again with a good majority. John Nicholson won Perthshire South. The SNP won 48 seats out of 59. The exit polls predicted they’d win 55. Exit polls are notoriously accurate. So what happened? How did the Tories manage to hold on to 6 seats, with tiny minorities, in spite of the exit polls?
Well postal voting must be the answer.Keeping the 16 to 18 year olds out and the EU residents ditto. That won’t apply in a referendum and surely we will have a system of monitoring in place to prevent fraud?
I think Pete has good reason to be cheerful and I don’t grudge him his optimism.
Looking forward to the march on Saturday
I’m 64 but I get really excited about it
I know my opinions don’t match lots of the people on here
But you know what ? That’s okay
I believe wholeheartedly in Scottish independence
I want a Scottish passport not british
I want Scottish citizenship not british
I don’t want trident in Scotland or nuclear power stations
See you all on Saturday all the best
Ian B – no, I haven’t but who says we’re going to take the EU flag down from Holyrood anyway? 😉
Ian Brotherhood. I will be deeply disappointed if the EU flag is lowered at Holyrood. I will be delighted when the butchers apron is lowered throughout Scotland.
Fairliered – nevermind lowered, I want to see them detached and unceremoniously binned, literally, in a big wheelie bin.
“Sorry I wasn’t more clear and I hope you didn’t think I was being disagreeable in my disagreement ?”
Not at all, Liz. Don’t think I’ve ever found you disagreeable.
I’m more pro-SNP than many here, and I don’t agree with Stu’s OP about the SNP’s supposed failure. But I do agree that the time for keeping our powder dry is over. A new campaign is certainly the best game-changer we have.
But as Stu also points out, I just don’t think that will happen this year. I’m fine though with the SNP going into the Holyrood election saying they’ll hold indyref2 later in 2021, maybe even in June. Victory in that election — maybe even a landslide if we get a second indy party going — would be a perfect way to demoralise our opponents going into the indyref campaign immediately afterwards.
Hello T Jenny
I hate the dhondt voting system in Scotland
All those a List MPs that sit in the Scottish Parliament , half of the total , have never actually been voted in by anybody !!
What kind of crazy system is that ?
It’s one set up to deceive that’s what it is
No Parliament should ever have people in it who have not been voted for by the people of the country
FPTP is bad as well just need to look at Westminster so I wouldn’t copy that either
But there are other fairer systems we could use
I joined the previous discussion about the WINGS List party
I agree in principal that it’s a good idea
But guarantees cannot be given that it would succeed because it depends on voters changing their usual behaviour
Hopefully SNP and WOS and the greens can get their heads together and work out a winning formula
Roll on Saturday
Rev. Stuart Campbell @ 15:44,
Duh, where do these fearties keep coming from? Institutionally-induced rabbitism. “It’s so very, very important, so…
… we had better avoid it just in case we lose. Waa, waa, waah.”
It’s enough to drive anyone bonkers. (And make them write in fullcaps. =grin=)
Amen to that. Waiting for the polls to move will be waiting for Godot. But people are now, I believe, quietly readying themselves for the inevitable showdown that everyone realises must and will come.
Including in England, where more and more people there are beginning to register that the UKOK game’s up, all bar the shouting. In fact, given what’s happening, they even expect it from us.
In the meantime, don’t many of us in talking to friends and neighbours get a distinct impression that the opinions of many former-“no”s are shifting? Facing up to a future run by the lies [unintentional typo there] likes of BoJo and out of the EU without their consent? Not enough to register in any likely poll, to be sure, but now willing to give a decent case for indy a hearing, when the serious opportunity finally arrives.
And just think, who of all is most desperately keen to put the whole thing off? The ones who really have a gut feeling they will lose. And here’s a hint: it’s nae us.
Capella @ 11.28
I don’t grudge Peat Wishart his opinion either and sometimes I wonder if some of the SNP say stuff to keep.. Shall we say.. The mystery… 🙂
Nevertheless .. I want above all honesty and I’ve never yet known the Rev to lie to us about what he thinks.
I don’t always agree with him,but only about his view … not that he holds it.
I’ve often said I want my Government within Slapping distance and right now,over somethings the Scottish Government need a slap….. So start as ye mean tae to on,I’d say, and therefore I have no problem with the Rev giving our Government a slap…
In fact I’m advocating the Yes Movement do it too.
Everybody accepted that the grass roots were out of political control in 2014.
We all know there are Yes activists and activities all over Scotland ( and have been for year’s )
We have regular and growing marches.
We network big time…Everybody knows somebody personally..
Our Boots on the Ground are second to none.
We’ve kept the support up.
We’re organised enough to be sure that Westminster can’t bargain our resources.
In short…
We bloody well know what we’re doing.
So..
The SNP/Scottish Government need to start listening to us.
We’re not a part of the system they take their information from.
We’re everywhere!!
They need to organise a Referendum…
We’ve got this,we did it before despite the odds and the polls….And… We’ve been practicing ever since!
And I think in his own way that’s what the Revs been getting at.
terence callachan @ 23:49,
It’s not the “d’hondt voting system”, it’s the Additional Member System (AMS). And the clue is in the name. (D’Hondt is just the arithmetic method used, and could be replaced without making a blind bit of difference. But it’s convenient nomenclature for those who want to make it seem dastardly and foreign.)
To get a decent system, you need to eliminate the two classes of MSPs. Which is eminently possible. And the sooner the better.
Come to think of it, holding indyref2 in June 2021 has more going for it than just demoralising the Tories and Labour for the indyref campaign when they lose the Holyrood election.
They would also look completely absurd and insane tearing lumps out of each other during the Holyrood campaign and then *days later* having to plaster pally grins on their faces and hook up for Better Together 2 – Electric Boogaloo. Man, that would be funny…
O/T – on twitter is all this trans stuff where trans ‘women’ are demanding, even threatening women suck their girl/lady c**ks, really just being driven by wee guys that are hung like midgies? Would explain a lot.
Ian Brotherhood @ 11.04
No I haven’t seen anything like that…
( But I’m new to it just a wee cheeper 🙂 and it’s a bit shit to be honest !
But I’d attend it it’s a thing!
@ Liz g – I’m sure you’re right and that Stu is just telling it as he sees it. I just get fed up with the negativity. I don’t see why it is impossible to have a referendum this year. That’s my opinion and, of course, I could be wrong. But if I wanted to indulge in an anti-SNP whinge fest I would just read the MSM.
BTW World at One today had an extended discussion on whither England now that Scotland is planning to leave. Lesley Riddoch was on and was very outspoken about how insular the English spokespeeps were.
Then News at Ten interviewed John Nicholson and I’m pretty sure I heard him criticise the US assassination of Gen Suleimani. But would have to check that. Nevertheless, the MSM today is more open than previously. Maybe daylight is dawning in London at last.
T Jenny @ 12.20
If only that were true my friend.
Women have delt with that shit since time immemorial…
There’s big money behind this… And not for a minute do I accept that it’s in defence of Trans people.
They are being used big time and cut of from the group who would normally if not defend but, rather would take a live and let live attitude towards them.
It’s horrible they are being used and used badly..
I’ve seen some Trans Woman speaking up..
I only hope more do..
Are you coming to the March on Saturday? 🙂
Capella @ 12.22
Oh me too Capella,I’ve enough trouble keeping my ( SNP members by the way )friends on board.
My question is ( and I am askin Stu )
A UK wide referendum on the EU and a Scottish Referendum in 2020 were, as you demonstrated not going to happen!
Nae argument there….
Now that we don’t have an EU referendum happening…
Is the timeframe, do you think for Indy Ref Two still impossible?
“I don’t see why it is impossible to have a referendum this year.”
Then I’m afraid you’re either a bit thick or you’re lying to yourself for comfort.
Liz g @ 00:48,
Like Capella, I’m still holding out for IR2 this year, though perhaps not as early as the Spring as I would prefer. I can’t justify that, mind you, but neither can the nay-sayers for their beliefs really.
But despite my own great impatience, and concern that other events could pop-up to interfere (eg. death of a senior royal?), if a definite timetable were set this year for Spring 2021, I would accept it, albeit very reluctantly.
However if the SG case is based on us not really being “out” =ahem= until this time next year (according to BoJo’s timetable at least) maybe the promise to give us a chance to decide “while it still mattered” would incline them to go for it this year after all. What’s the point of letting this thing fester any longer? We have been ignored for far too long already. People are quietly preparing themselves to decide this inevitable fork in the road, I believe.
Rev. Stuart Campbell @ 01:07,
There’s no need to be so arrogantly dismissive. You have your articles of faith, and we have ours. But neither camp can prove their belief on this, since neither possesses a crystal ball nor has sufficient actual facts. (Whatever Alex Salmond may have previously intimated to you. =grin=)
Best be humble all round and see what transpires. And in the meantime, being optimistic does help. But maybe that’s just according to personal character.
Rev @ 1.07
That’s the bit I’ve missed…
And it’s no impossible I’m thick and or needing comfort..
But humor me.
Again!!
Why can’t a Referendum happen this year?
Liz g – Aye, I know, but the wee mdgie willies are probably eagerly jumping on the woke bandwagon, thinking at last, somewhere they can fit in. 😉
I vaguely remember reading somewhere that the WTO were lobbied mercilessly by big pharma to change the status of body dysmorphia, from a mental illness, which it clearly is, to a physical illness as the health insurance companies wouldn’t fund surgery if it was a mental illness. This was depriving big pharma and health clinics/surgeries of all that lovely moola from having people on hormones etc after surgery and throughout there lives.
Like the OxyContin addiction crisis in USA, where the company making these pills knew how addictive they were but in the words of one of the guys at the top of said company, there was just too much money being made for them to withdrwa them.
All this being born in the wrong body. How do they know? Whose body are they in, and is the other body aware of this mix up? I think there’s a fair amount of Munchausen’s Syndrome and with the pre-puberty kids, Munchausen’s by proxy. In the not too distant future, there will be many court cases for compensation awarded to these kids, from clinical malpractice and parental abuse, I think there are already a few cases on the go.
These poor souls are narcissistic fantasists really and should be getting counselled not exploited. Not being encouraged to have bits of their bodies cut off. But the self IDers are just sexual opportunists. As are the wee midgie men.
Don’t know about Saturday, as I’m basically a sloth, but I’ll be there in spirit and watching it all online.
Sorry, not WTO, WHO. soz. ;-(
T Jenny @ 1.45
That’s exactly what I’m getting at!
If fully formed and fully functional genitalia are present..
Then nothing has gone WRONG.
Whatever’s taking place is taking place between the ears!!
Michael Russell said there was plenty of time to call a referendum up until March 2020 as only six months is required to run a campaign making it easily achievable by Autumn 2020
So I’d expect the referendum to be called early February right after the Exit Brexit withdrawal
Nicola Sturgeon has accused Trump of trying to provoke a conflict not end one
Dr Jim @ 1.56
I do hope so..
And They bloody well better… Aye?
Ian Brotherhood
I feel an act of civil disobedience coming on. I think we can raise a large enough crowd to gatecrash the party and forcibly lower the butcher’s apron at the parliament instead.
Or perhaps better, to do that the next day – 1 February. It is a Saturday.
@Craig Murray
Well that’ll be the end of your SNP membership then, remember to take pictures of yourself forcibly fighting over a flag and the arrest that follows
The Establishment control Westminster !
The Establishment control the Newspapers !
The Establishment control the TV and Radio !
The Establishment control government statistics !
The Establishment don’t control Polls ?
The Establishment don’t control Postal votes ?
Does Scotland want to be controlled by a London based De Facto English Tory Government for the next 10 to 15 years !
The March in Glasgow Saturday 11th January will be the biggest ever in Scotland’s history !
Dr Jim
There are two very sad things here. The first is that you are very probably right that the SNP leadership would kick someone out for lowering the butcher’s apron. They really are unprepared to do anything at all to show defiance of the UK Establishment.
The second is, so far as I can gather, you would support that yet still expect us to believe you are an Independence supporter.
Boris is never going to voluntarily cede Independence. There is no quiet, civilised, tea drinking route to achieve this.
Banging one’s head against a brick wall does become soul destroying, if one lets it. But if educational practice is to be inclusive, it is important to foster a “set of dispositions and values for a methodology of education that is located in the community, for the community and with the community. Johnston (2000, p.14) defines the key values of community education as a commitment to social justice, greater social and economic equality, and a more participatory democracy.”
Experience, Democracy, Community – Identifying with John Dewey through Youth activism in Scotland
link to abdn.ac.uk
Democratic Foundations for Spiritually Responsive Pedagogy
link to democracyeducationjournal.org
link to philpapers.org
Ian Brotherhood @ 23:04 (05.Jan),
Why don’t they just defiantly keep it flying? Dip it then bring it right back up again. High time there was some up-front visible official defiance and not merely some individual protest.
To paraphrase: “Act as if you live in the early days of a better nation”, and all that.
@Craig Murray
If someone did the same thing to the Saltire how would you react, is it a violence issue, and I also don’t give two monkeys what you or others think or your expectation of me as a supporter of Independence of which I have been for very much longer than your admitted few years, plus if I’m to be arrested for anything I’d make damn sure it wasn’t over a piece of cloth hanging from a pole by announcing my intentions in advance in the hope of making a name for myself on the news and encouraging others to join in
Not very diplomatic now is it
um……… would love to see an opinion poll by a trusted source, to see how much the polls have shifted since bojo won a majority.
now that people know for a fact that the libdem hupe of staying in the uk and the eu is now over.
now that people know for a fact that labour is a busted flush who will spend the next 3 years fighting amongst themselves
now that people know for a fact that a right wing english nationalist tory government will be in power for at least a decade
now that people know for a fact that brexit will happen in 3 weeks
seems like the last 3 years people have been arguing about nothing else, now we know. it would be good to see what people now think.
Im still with nicola, her policy of supporting a peoples vote, popular with 70% of scots, was the right call. why? not because an euref2 undermined our mandate for indyref2, which it did, It was the right call because everyone knew it would never happen.
maybe we should wait until feb to carry out an opinion poll?
Unless we start making a name for Independence on the news it is not going to happen.
I joined the SNP in 2011. I have supported it since about 1977. Gordon and Edith Wilson were among the guests at my first wedding. Gordon gave my reference to be an SNP candidate – when I was turned down by the Sturgeon Murrell crew.
In about 1982 I attended a dinner at Gordon’s house with those who stole the Stone from Westminster Abbey. Presumably you disapproved of that terrible lawlessness too, or were you not always a coward?
Apologies should read I joined the SNP in 2011. I have supported Indy since about 1977.
kinda agree with craig,
civil disobedience should now be on the cards, this can be done in tandem with any legal case over the s30 request should the need arise
an opinion poll showing a big swing to yes would also be a tonic for the troops
craig
blockading aberdeen airport and or grangemouth for a week by 10,000 cars should also be considered. care to comment?
Craig Murray says:
were you not always a coward?
craig, by all means make your case for civil disobedience, perhaps even make a few suggestions, but calling folks cowards isnt the way to convince folk
@Craig Murray
You constantly give yourself away with statements like *the Sturgeon Murrell crew* and attempting to parade credentials by name dropping folk you had a cup of tea with
By also attemtping to lay silly slurs as to my character is another sign as to why you weren’t accepted into the SNP in the way you wanted, you have a big mouth, you can’t be trusted
If an intelligent lawbreaker was going to commit a devious act they wouldn’t be blurting it out all over the Internet, they’d just do it, or if a politician say had a plan well they would definitely not tell you about it now would they
You would think that perhaps in any dealings you may have had at any time with intelligence services would have rubbed off a little, apparently not
Dr Jim,
I apologise, it was rude of me to call you a coward.
It depends why you are committing the unlawful act. Publicising it in advance is much more desirable for a civil disobedience campaign, as opposed to a bank robbery. cf Ghandi’s salt marches. And getting arrested is very much part of the civil disobedience strategy.
There just isn’t a Westminster agreed route to Indy open, Jim. Very few countries have ever achieved Independence with nobody getting arrested en route, and I predict that quite a few of us will be before we achieve national freedom. Neither Boris Johnson nor the London Supreme Court is going to give you what you want. This is going to be a bit tough. Never upsetting anyone is not going to work.
what would you suggest craig?
indeed, anyone want to suggest something?
Crowdfund a legal test of whether British constitutionalism is operating within the legal boundaries of international law and the moral law justification of the British constitution. Though perhaps not in Britain, for obvious reasons. If found not to be the case, the Treaty is a dead parrot and the union is pushing up the daisies.
link to open.edu
@Craig Murray
At no time did I ever mention that certain steps might not be required to achieve certain aims but the Internet certainly isn’t the place to discuss it or announce it in advance, there are other avenues through which these things may be discussed and or planned but the people willing and prepared to do these things don’t and won’t talk to known prominant persons
At my age arrest or incarceration isn’t a threat, to younger people who have jobs wives and families it is, but being arrested prevents you carrying out more *misbehaviour* because you’re then known
Being arrested does not benefit the anonymous, if you want to make a public political statement to create a newsworthy headline that’s fine but to mention force and ask others to join you as the prominant person, you’re asking them to risk more than yourself if they are not financially viable enough to sustain the possible loss of income or even their jobs just for a headline about a flag because as you should well know the media would make that joke headline of the week and belittle the whole idea while at the same time blaming it all on Nicola Sturgeon and her Stasi troops
But I think you know that Craig
Until the official avenues have been exhausted and the public can see that, then is the time for ideas involving misbehaviour or all you’re achieving is giving Westminster and the media a stick to beat Scotland with, and we have enough of those at the moment
You want to judge how popular civil disobedience is with your average Jo, wait until Extinction Rebellion brings Glasgow to a halt later this year, then see how much support it garners. Not much I’ll wager among those directly affected/inconvenienced and particularly when viewed through the prism of a hostile media.
Given that people are seriously contemplating acts of civil disobedience, given that some people want to keep on keeping on for months, years, decades, given that some people think the beastly Tories will be extra beastly enough to give an outright majority, given that some people think exiting Europe will be the end of the world while others think departure from Europe will be a short sabbatical,…
Given that so much of Scottish Independence is in a state of flux and denied any certainty, can anybody explain to me the logic in NOT lodging a Constitutionally driven interdict to formally dispute the anti-democratic colonial subjugation of Scotland’s sovereign and democratic mandate to remain in Europe?
The issue can be disputed separately or collectively upon democratic mandate, constitutional sovereignty, unlawful colonial subjugation, overriding our human rights of self determination,.. probably a host of further arguments too. We amble around making a fruit salad of our own Constitutional Sovereignty, but we have before us a crystal clear, open goal just begging for us to formally dispute “theirs”.
So why, why, why are we content to solemnly march to our doom and humiliation on 31st January and do nothing to prevent it beyond meek and anaemic gesture politics? We are doing NOTHING and we should be doing EVERYTHING.
“If you love
wealthsubjugation more than liberty, thetranquility of servitudeshame of capitulation better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you wereour countrymenever a Nation.“For as long as one hundred of us shall remain alive we shall never in any wise consent to submit to the rule of the English, for it is not for glory we fight, for riches, or for honours, but for freedom alone, which no good man loses but with his life…” Aye read the words Scotland. Look at what you were, and look at what you have become.
Re “Nicola Sturgeon has accused Trump of trying to provoke a conflict not end one”
There would be no little irony, three weeks from defacto independence/ eternal subjugation, if Scotland were obliged to end the union because we could not follow England into a perpetual war in the middle east that we were inclined to blame on the acts and omissions of a former Scottish business ambassador, and self confessed war criminal, terrorist and greatest president in history (albeit impeached), who was genuinely trying to end one.
I am not a big fan of Nicola S. but I think we must trust her on strategy for now. There is a Plan B of that I am sure. The people we need to win over to YES will not find direct or illegal action endearing to independence. I am also sure of that.
However, I do feel we occasionally (or perhaps frequently) need to remind everyone that our commitment to our country and society runs deep. The SNP could start by ‘deBritishing’ (if that’s a word) Scottish institutions….
Remember this – we have been a colony for around 250 years and we must seek have a clear out of Britishers and troughers at the top end of our institutions. Lets not give the BBC the British influencers in Scotland they crave prior to IndyRef 2.
Imagine if there was a false flag terrorist alert surrounding government buildings and the UK needed to beef up security around them. Wouldn’t that give Johnson the perfect excuse to suspend or close Holyrood since it would be seen to be done under the name of that catch all phrase, ‘national security’?
Somebody had better get their arse in gear because I suspect that Holyrood may not be around much longer. Does Johnson need the hassle of Sturgeon and the SNP sniping in his ear constantly about indyref2? Of course he doesn’t and like the story says in Aesops Fables, ‘Any excuse will serve a tyrant’.
O/T BBC Radio Shortbread having a phone in on what are false Tory claims over drugs policy.
Morning Call from 9 a.m.
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@Achnababan 08:10
The SNP is a British party, it sees itself as the third party of the British state’s London parliament.
It is also fixated by British legalism. It may well as an organization be a ‘false friend’. It is without doubt responsible for leading the nationalist masses to the hill top, showing them the new land and then marching everbody down again.
Scottish nationalism is ill served by this party as currently ‘led’ and constituted.
If the ‘leaders’ of the SNP do not have their political epiphany very soon then frightening the horses, turning the heat up on those fairweather yes snowflakes may be the only resort.
This is not a cause for belt and braces Scotch lawyers, amateurs and tearful, sentimental old maids, of both sexes.
Craig Murry…. Dr Jim is right, if Civil Disobedience becomes warranted floating it on the internet is not a good idea….
But more than that… If ye must… Do it on yer own blog and don’t put someone else’s at risk .
Hi troops, any more thoughts on 1 minute silence on Saturday 11th for Mr Weir? I put the idea on WoS when the news broke, as I am not the organiser, I have no say in the matter. If it goes ahead, at least they will have more time to organise the details.
Gary 45% @ 9.06am
AUOB ( the organizer ) have a website and a Facebook page try contacting them there.
It sounds a lovely gesture..
Then I’m afraid you’re either a bit thick or you’re lying to yourself for comfort.
@ Rev Stu – I fell asleep and missed that gem at 1.07 – to clarify – I’m actually one of the country’s cleverest people. Certified.
I believe you based your arithmetic on several factors, including the Electoral Commission saying they would need 9 months to “test the question”. However, Mike Russell has asserted that the question doesn’t need tested. It was tested in 2014 and umpteen times since then. So that’s nine months off the timetable.
Also, I heard the leadership say some time ago that they would not contemplate a long campaign. The next Indyref would only need a short campaign.
How short is short?
Dunno.
So if the S30 question is settled by the end of the Alex Salmond trial – say the beginning of the Declaration of Arbroath celebrations on 6th April – that leaves a summer campaign followed by an autumn vote.
Where have I gone wrong arithmetically?
Maybe to include others like Alistair Gray .
Cappelletti
Easy April 4th is the Arbroath March. Lol
So Gordon Brown and Kevin Hague are heading a staunch unionist gathering in a foreign country’s city Newcastle on how to stop Scottish independence.
On the agenda will be ways to change the education of children in Scotland to make the union a top priority.
Hague added much of the work to secure the union will be done “below the surface”, make of that what you will.
link to thenational.scot
@ cynicalHighlander – that certainly would be a march to remember. Put it in the diary.
Happy twelfth night everyone. The Xmas decorations come down today and grey January will need cheering up. Is everyone doing dry January or Veganuary?
Still mild up here, unusually mild. At least it’s not an inferno like Australia.
Liz g@9.13
Cheers for that. I’ll try their website, I don’t do facbooky thingy.
Dr Jim @ 03:26,
Well said.
When the name of the game right now is to bring onside those “former-no”‘s who are now very much open to conversion, and observe one government at least which is behaving like grown-ups, about the last thing you want to do right now is start up some nonsense that will convince them instead that Scotland is going to hell in a handcart.
Civil disobedience only works if the vast majority of people are already onside and there is no alternative.
You would think that anyone who has formerly had some contact with the security services and who is proposing such action at such a critical time would be aware of that.
You would think.
Success is clearly in terms of electoral success for the SNP not indyref2
Republicofscotland @ 09:54,
I can’t think of anything more agreeable to contemplate than Bitter Thegither Mk.2 being fronted by El Gordo the Lost.
Gordon frae Fife you say? Oh wait! Newcastle. 🙂 Aye!
Scottish Tories in a group huddle to select a new leader starting today.
All on the shortbread news then.
Some interesting comments upthread. Thx to Liz g, RJS and Dr Jim for some pertinent remarks on timing of Indyref2. 🙂
Re Civil Disobedience – you need to have the army and police onside, or at least neutral. That may well be possible if troops are sent out to the middle east to fight for American corporations in their trade war with China. Time will tell.
I’m a great believer in crossing bridges when you come to them.
So, what IS the right strategy then?
Robert J. Sutherland 10:07am
It was the word *force* that set me off because who are you going to use force against, our own Police service, and that’s neither a helpful or constructive way of moving your case forward by talking about hurting or harming our own and that would have the opposite effect on the rest of the public plus enrage the supporters of that flag
and that’s repeating the same mistake the Northen Irish made
It’s all very well for some known personality to claim himself some headlines but the repercussions weren’t thought through on that, you behave like that over a bit of cloth hanging from a pole, you immediately incite the opposition to do the same and or worse by inviting them to attack anybody with a Saltire either in their hand or a sticker on their car, the list goes on, but as I said I believe Craig Murray knows that fine well and knows the blame would be squarely laid at the feet of Nicola Sturgeon about inciting her troops to violence leading to all the obvious headlines about Scotland being out of control, and we know what follows that
Force only ends up being followed by more and bigger force until the inevitable happens and that’s not winnable, if folk want to do something disruptive do it in London where it always has the most effect, cost them money by preventing airline movement, trains, cause stoppages of commerce they hate that and then you see headlines because money is more important than people
@Republicofscotland 9:54 am
Easy for some to jump ship isn’t it. I understand graph lad was a director of Endura cycling clothing company that put out a statement during the 2014 indyref campaign to vote No to Scottish independence because it was imperative that their business remain in the EU single market.
Understand the business may have been sold on now though.
Colin Alexander did some digging a few weeks back and turned up some interesting connections to those involved.
Good article here on how the House of Lords totally fails Scotland, figures compiled by Tommy Sheppard.
Not one of the 80 odd Lords that identifiy as Scottish, supports Scottish independence, indy supporters are not represented in the HoL.
link to thenational.scot
Meanwhile what is 8% of £107,000,000,000 billion?
As the cost of HS2 spirals out of control.
HS2, apparently that’s going to be hugely beneficial to the *UK* even though not one inch of it comes anywhere near Scotland Wales and certainly not Northern Ireland
Maybe they’re thinking of laying on bycicles or horses and carts for all the people travelling the rest of the way to Scotland for our £10 billion contribution
@Dr Jim
On a positive note, at least with bicycles and horses our environmental credentials will be A+.
We’ll have a fit population and plenty dung for the garden.
Wasn’t England threatening they weren’t going to trade with us if we’re independent, ergo no need for transportation links across our fortified border.
Republicofscotland @ 11:04,
Mostly due to the fact, I imagine, that the SNP, out of principle, don’t make recommendations for membership of The Great Hall of the (Fur-clad) People. And everyone else is too busy packing in their own time-server cronies to care.
TJenny says: at 1:45 am
“All this being born in the wrong body. How do they know? Whose body are they in, and is the other body aware of this mix up? I think there’s a fair amount of Munchausen’s Syndrome and with the pre-puberty kids, Munchausen’s by proxy. In the not too distant future, there will be many court cases for compensation awarded to these kids, from clinical malpractice and parental abuse, I think there are already a few cases on the go.”
This tweet from yesterday makes a good point, though I’d include the use of puberty blockers too, rather than solely surgical intervention.
link to twitter.com
Civil disobedience was used by a man with no army or navy or Air Force and he won independense for his country his name Michael Collins he was forced to use these methods because the occupiers of his country left him no choice so he used their methods back on them he out terrorised the real terrorists
Blair Paterson @ 12:28,
Well, there’s potted cod history for dummies from a true exponent. With insight like this, who needs Wikipedia?
@Dan 11:34am
It’s always been a stupid threat to make to suggest they won’t trade with Scotland if we’re not a member of their Union but they want to trade with the European Union which we would be a member of, so not possible to exclude one without excluding the other 27 and as I’ve always said money’s more important than human life to those folks
They really need to organise their threats more efficiently and think them through a wee bit more before making them, then again they’ve never really been known for their strategic thinking, they’re more your bayonet gunboat bullet and bomb diplomats, and after midnight tonight when Iran’s three day mourning is up it looks like they might get their chance to decide on that and Scotland might once again be dragged into yet another American instigated piece of unnecessary stupidity pretending they had to blatantly use a bomb to take out somebody that could’ve been killed by a sniper from a mile away or other covert means, then they could have denied it was them, but the object of this exercise was a bravado display of power and provocation not protection of anything
What can you do eh, we’re only wee Scotland that just wants a bit of peace from these people but they love us so much they won’t let us go, the oil and gas and power and food and drink strategic location and somewhere to park their Nukes has nothing to do with it I’m sure
Well said, Dr. Jim, for your (as usual, but especially today) intelligent, sensible and down-to-earth realistic comments.
link to mobile.twitter.com
As a bigger picture of Cambridge Analytica develops, only the most naive, along with the hard-core of British Nationalists, will believe that the Scottish Independence Referendum in September 2014 was not interfered with by the Westminster Government.
Whenever IndyRef2 happens, the outcome will inevitably depend on the ability or inability of the Scottish Government to block interference from the British State.
As long as Westminster has companies like Cambridge Analytica, it has no need to listen to Scotland’s democratic demands.
It seems like something not yet on the horizon is going to be needed to persuade enough No voters to change their BritNat brainwashed minds to tip the balance in favour of Independence.
Of one thing I am certain however, Scotland needs a second Independence Party to counter the skewed d’Hondt voting model in use for the Holyrood elections which allows Unionist rejects to walk into the Scottish Parliament.
Capella says:
I’m a great believer in crossing bridges when you come to them.
——
measured response
perhaps there is a case for blockading grangemouth, but not yet. bojo hasnt even officially refused a s30 yet.
but civil disobedience comes in more than one form. you could argue that marching at AUOB events is one. demonstrations in the street are the stuff of all campaigns
not all acts of CD are necessarily disruptive to the general public eg, standing on the ledge of a high profile building dressed as batman for 6 hrs had very little effect on the general public but it gave the tv crews time to get to the location and this was the front page image on every newspaper in europe. it highlighted the rights of single dads lack of access to their children very effectively
standing in a by election as a giant penguin and beating the libdems into 2nd place also went viral
disruption to the general public, like the yellow vests in france, in scotland will have a different effect, scotland isnt france, eg blocking the 4th road bridge only affects the people in edinburgh, scotland etc, bojo and the people of england couldnt care less,
thats why i put forward the idea of blockading GM and Aberdeen airports since this would have an impact across the whole of the UK, not just Scotland.
perhaps AUOB should organise a march in Newcastle to “welcome” hague and brown
Perhaps we should crowd fund candidates to stand in high profile english by elections? the snp wont do this but no law saying YES cant.
just some random ideas
Your article makes a good point about support being static. I would point out that before the IndyRef support was WAY below this and campaigning brought it UP to nearly 50%, another ‘full on’ campaign COULD have the same effect. ‘COULD’
But we DON’T just need another referendum, we need to WIN that referendum when it’s held. Two problems, GETTING the referendum and WINNING it. We need support for Indy to be embarrassingly high, so much so that it CANNOT be denied further.
We don’t just need to appeal to the unsure, we need to appeal to the ‘anti’ group. What got Devolution voted on? what got Devolution such high support? You know the answer, THAT is who we need to win over..
Justice, democracy and the potential for self-determination are not likely to survive much longer in Scotland, unless serious efforts are made to raise the critical consciousness of the nation. This is unlikely to happen without the support of political parties, due largely to the media’s desire to misrepresent Scotland and mislead the general public.
Full text.
link to ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
If only someone with a bit of £££ for this kind of thing commissioned a new poll on indy to coincide with AUOB or brexit date..? A helpful shift towards Yes might just create/reinforce a sense of it being a watershed moment for Scottish public opinion, and highlight to Scottish switherers that they do have alternative option to staying hitched to Boris’s Brexit Britain..?
‘Capella says:
6 January, 2020 at 9:57 am
Happy twelfth night everyone. The Xmas decorations come down today and grey January will need cheering up. Is everyone doing dry January?’
I gave up the booze last January – best decision ever.
For those thinking of doing so and who think they might need more than just will power to achieve it, it is worth looking up the info on you tube re the 3C Foundation/Sinclair Method. NHS Scotland supports the prescribing of this method (and at this time last year, England’s NHS did not – thought this may have changed now) – however not too many GP’s (and shockingly most of the alcohol misuse charities are also ignorant about it/or the way it works) are aware of how it works, so you need to know about it, in order to ask for it. It has an over 60% success rate in Finland also.
Best wishes to all.
Well done Daisy. I do Audible and so I came across Allen Carr’s Easy Way.. books in the summer and listened to the one on alcohol. Very effective. I can recommend that too.
Robert Sutherland 1204hrs…
You are wrong Robert
Just look at countries using what is described in para five as the system
link to en.wikipedia.org
What a waste of time and energy, and how insulting to claim the SNP are sitting on their hands. We have just been through a gruelling General Election which the SNP won, overwhelmingly.
To all the impatients who cannot wait ; I have been in the SNP for 53 years, and I have no wish to see hotheads throwing away the Cause. The political scene is moving our way, the present Leadership is the best we have had -do not throw it away.
terence callachan @ 19:58,
Sorry, but it’s you who are mistaken. The method as described in your reference allocates all seats via a single vote, seats which are thus all equal in stature, whereas the system as bequeathed to Scotland only uses it via this wierd extra “regional list vote” to allocate enough further members – widely regarded, whether fairly or not – as “second class” and even “unelected” (somehow, despite there having been votes in an election) simply in order to graft some measure of proportionality onto what is essentially the antiquated FPTP constituency system of yore.
Hence its rightful name “Additional Member System”. A typically British bodge whose main disliked characteristic is not the particular method of parcelling out the vote share (“D’Hondt”) but the clumsy adding-in of a party-nominated shoal of “additional member” numpties.
I order to conquer, truly know (and name) thine enemy.
Here we have it then SNP are on the gravy train where Labour were, enjoying the trappings of success, and not pushing the case for Independence at all.
The resounding win of MPs on 12th gave them a legal mandate but no they take down the case.
Not at all happy with SNP.
Wider YES Movement and AUOB doing all the Independence work now.
So what do we do…if the people of this country do not want independence then they won’t get it given to them.We can blame the SNP all we want but truly is it their fault?Is it not all of us who want independence who are at fault.We bicker we undermine the only party which wants what we want, we question their motives we snipe we groan and moan and we do little else.If the people of Scotland are not standing in the street with their ballot papers already filled in with all that has gone on over the past few years then we will never motivate or mobolise them.If they are willing to sit back and endure insult after ignominy after lie after abuse then we are truly a nation of cap doffing minions and slaves and we get all we deserve which in this case is nothing but more of the same.I have read and studied and sought hope in every corner of the social media looking for the spark which keeps us on the path.We are not united, even in the simple notion of keeping together for one purpose pushing for one ideal and we cannot even do that long enough to get the vote we need.There is no point in deriding the SNP who want to deliver a legally binding result they are politicans and believe in the ballot box and the rights of democracy and want a new Scotland to be recognised as such politically all over the world and that means using the rules of westminster because we gave the right to write those rules away year after year and now we carp and moan.The only other alternative is to ignore democracy and go the other route but that wouldnt work either because the right and the loyalists are well geared to the prospect of armed struggle and their war cries of No surrender, it is what they hope and prsy for they have been on that course for a few hundred years just across the water where they are trained and encouraged ,and no doubt would be armed and reinforced from the same source.So what are we left with then doom, gloom, despair, denial, despondency, damnation and darkness with no prospect of getting freedom in my lifetime.I repeat if they will not vote for it now then they will never vote for it until all the old codgers of my generation are dead and gone but only if we educate and keep the faith for the next generation who may get there.
I think support for independence can only now grow significantly if we have a date for a referendum and we get a real campaign on the go. If that process doesn’t give us a referendum result in favour of independence then nothing will.
Hi David on 8 January, 2020 at 2:07 pm.
You typed,
“I think support for independence can only now grow significantly if we have a date for a referendum and we get a real campaign on the go. If that process doesn’t give us a referendum result in favour of independence then nothing will.”
I believe that’s true. Most people (not indy-activists) are just getting on with dealing with their everyday situations. It needs a spur in the hindquarters – AKA a referendum date – to focus their minds on what could happen, if Scotland doesn’t recover independence.
The march on Saturday (and the march in Inverness on the 25th) may show that the tipping point has been reached. However, we, as the “ordinary people”of Scotland, are still being subjected to the daily “SNP BAAAD”/”Scotland BAAAD” propaganda from Plantation Quay (and, to a lesser extent, from their STV neighbours to the east).
If a date is announced, I would expect regular opinion polls thereafter to show an increasing support for independence.