The faithful lie
Last night’s bizarre edition of Scotland 2014, in which the three Scottish Labour “leadership” candidates were quizzed by the daughter of a former Labour leader in front of an audience of the candidates’ own supporters (comprising MSPs, councillors and activists), saw all three stick doggedly to what’s clearly going to be the party’s main pitch in the 2015 general election – “Vote SNP, get Tories”.
It’s a line the party has trotted out at every election for decades, and which has been getting pumped out almost daily since Johann Lamont’s resignation – former deputy “leader” Anas Sarwar (who oddly declined to stand for the actual job when it became available) penned a column for the Evening Times on Monday, for example, entitled “Every vote for an SNP candidate is a vote to help elect David Cameron”, and he said the same thing in the Commons this very afternoon.
As alert readers will know, we like to check the facts on these things.
So we had a look at the figures for some UK general elections in the modern era, to try to ascertain whether there was any relationship between the SNP vote and the likelihood of a Conservative government being elected. Those of you familiar with the veracity of Scottish Labour claims will, perhaps, be less than stunned by the results.
Alert readers will have noticed several things from the graph above.
One is that Labour’s vote in Scotland has been remarkably consistent for the last 70 years, only twice dipping (just) below 1 million and only once exceeding 1.3 million, including the years we haven’t put on the graph. Another is that the SNP’s is far more volatile, even if you only count from the 1970s when the party became a serious force. In the 1970s alone it rocketed from 360,000 to 840,000 then back to 504,000.
(The span between Labour’s biggest and smallest Scottish votes since 1970 is just 289,000. The gulf between the SNP’s best and worst over the same period, however, is a whopping 508,000 – a figure that’s even more dramatic considering the SNP’s average vote is less than half of Labour’s.)
But our elite band of super-alert readers will have spotted something else. Of the ten elections we’ve selected above, eight of them resulted in Conservative governments. The only two Labour won – 1974 and 1997 – were the ones with the highest and third-highest SNP votes.
(We initially chose the eight years because they were all the Conservative wins since 1945 where Scotland had voted Labour, and we wanted to see any correlation between Tory victories and the size of the SNP vote. We then included 1974 and 1997 because in compiling the data we noticed how strikingly large the SNP vote was in those years. The elections we’ve left out don’t change the overall picture at all.)
When voters abandoned the SNP in large numbers to stick with/return to Labour, the Tories still got in. Labour got almost triple the SNP vote in Scotland in 1983, but it didn’t stop Mrs Thatcher securing the biggest landslide in Tory history with 397 seats to Labour’s 208. By the 1997 election the SNP vote almost doubled in size, but Tony Blair got an even bigger Westminster landslide, even though Labour’s own Scottish vote had only grown by 20,000 from their 1987 thrashing.
So the demonstrable, empirical truth is that voting SNP rather than Labour in Scotland does ABSOLUTELY NOTHING in practice to make Conservative UK governments more likely. Indeed, statistically the exact opposite is true – the years with the lowest SNP votes are the years the Tories do best in and vice versa.
The four UK elections with the highest SNP votes (1974a, 1974b, 1992 and 1997) saw three Labour governments and the Tory government with the lowest majority. The four with the lowest SNP votes (1970, 1983, 1987 and 2005), conversely, were the other way round (3 Con 1 Lab), including the two highest Tory majorities ever.
The assertion on which Labour are fighting and will fight the 2015 election, then, is a flat-out lie comprehensively disproved by the facts. If you want a Conservative government in London, the best thing you can do in Scotland is vote Labour.
.
APPENDIX
Full Data, all UK general elections since 1945
Text colour: party which formed government
1951: Lab 1.33m SNP 7,300
1950: Lab 1.26m SNP 10,000
1955: Lab 1.19m SNP 12,000
1959: Lab 1.25m SNP 22,000
1964: Lab 1.28m SNP 64,000
1966: Lab 1.27m SNP 129,000
1970: Lab 1.2m SNP 360,000
1974a: Lab 1.1m SNP 633,000
1974b: Lab 1m SNP 840,000
1979: Lab 1.21m SNP 504,000
1983: Lab 991,000 SNP 332,000
1987: Lab 1.26m SNP 416,000
1992: Lab 1.14m SNP 630,000
1997: Lab 1.28m SNP 622,000
2001: Lab 1m SNP 464,000
2005: Lab 922,000 SNP 412,000
2010: Lab 1.04m SNP 491,000
.
Highest five SNP votes (since 1970)
1974b
1974a
1992
1997
1979
Lowest five SNP votes (since 1970)
1983
1970
2005
1987
2010
brilliant
need to get this widely circulated
big posters in all labour seats
ta
This information will be very useful in future hustings and canvassing, thank you.
I’m sure Scotland 2014 will do a feature on this data later on tonight … Won’t they?
Are you missing an election between 1997 and 2010?
This needs advertised far and wide across all media platforms. It is really just an extension of project fear.
Just two months ago SLab were happy to state that they preferred a Tory Government in Westminster rather than an SNP led Scottish Gov.
Changed their mind fast, now they use this concept to strike fear into a Scottish voters. We get whatever party in power that English voters decide for us.
This was a central theme in Indy Ref, being represented by a party of our own choosing!
Good article Rev Stu, I see you’re still in good form.
To be fair, in the Many Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics there is a world where Sarwar is telling the truth. That is not our world.
Ziiiiing
Agree with the first comment. We need to translate this piece into a short, clear leaflet for mass circulation. It needs to start going out in every Labour held constituency even before the General Election campaign begins.
Use our advantage – boots on the ground – from the earliest possible moment. Build the required ‘critical mass’ on this conversation to get it into the media and let it roll ! They’ve given us yet another rod to beat them with.
Lies lies lies lies. liars liars liars liars. That’s all they are is liars. Compulsive insulting liars.
Stu
You really must stop confusing us with facts. SLAB don’t do facts, rationale, integrity, truth or anything else that might generally be regarded as desirable traits in politicians. They have a party line and they follow it doggedly – keep pushing the party lies and people will believe it.
If you keep putting facts forward, some people might see through the SLAB facade.
Excellent myth busting!
Vote Labour get Tory policies! Vote SNP, get leverage! (and get rid of existing Labour MP’s1
Fantastic stuff, Stu, and I have shared on social media.
The sad bit is that any journalist worth their salt should, the next time a Labour politician says in an interview ‘vote SNP, get Tory’, say ‘well, some research conducted by Stuart Campbell shows that that isn’t really the case….now, can you tell us what solid policy means you deserve a vote rather than invoking the Tory bogeyman and hoping people ask nothing more?’. Sadly, I doubt this will happen.
And the SLab response to this will be…
“Yeah but…no but…yeah but…”
I dread to think what the response would be if this info was passed to the ‘Curran School of Do-lally Arithmatic’
PS @G. P. Walrus – I think you’re gonna get a Rev-roasting for that comment
Anyone that is at all cynical might say that SLAB MPs are a bunch of sell out careerists, who would say anything to keep their gravy train at Westminster intact. As usual from Anas Sarwar, a completely witless and incorrect claim.
Try and get a letter off to your Local newspaper. A lot of the people who rely on the TV and MSM for their news also regularly buy their local newspaper.
I wrote
“Vote Labour to keep the Tories out – Did that work the last time then?
Vote Labour to see an end to the Council tax freeze and your council tax rocketing, vote labour to see the return of tuition fees and your children denied the free education we all enjoyed, vote labour to see the introduction of fracking under houses near you and house prices plummeting, vote labour to see the austerity agenda pursued with vigour with the poor suffering most, vote labour to see the continuation of the most unequal country in Europe with the worst pensions in Europe. But for god’s sake, don’t vote labour to keep the Tories out.
It didn’t work last time, and it won’t work next time either.”
So Scotland has NEVER Voted SNP and got Tory, but we have voted labour loads of times and got Tory.
Remember this folks: any journalist who doesn’t challenge SLabour on this is as devious, sneaky and devoid of integrity as they are.
I can just hear the rabid typing at keyboards at Pacific Quay in order to get the analysis and information out to their readers..
Oh hang on.. That would be another often misused Mantra –
“At the BBC, we are determined to be impartial and fair in our coverage.”
(from one of the many complaints I send them re their Labour Run organisation masquerading as a National Broadcaster – pah!)
Sarwar needs to be told time after time after time, that every he time he or Ed Miliband opens his mouth helps to elect David Cameron. (On second thoughts, don’t tell him)
Blue or Red Tories – no difference
Every vote for Better Together is a vote to help elect David Cameron
A few people have been talking about what we BTL Wingers could collaborate on to best result.
This has got to be it.
We have to counter the Labour SPIN that a ‘vote for SNP is a vote for Tory’.
As many of us have said … and Stu has highlighted here, its an old Labour trope, it comes out regularly to scare the Scottish electorate.
Let’s agree a list of initiatives to torpedo this Labour strategy below the waterline.
You Labour Worthies (Yes, you know who you are) need to know that we don’t intend to let you get away with your lies and bullshit.
Okay folks… What do we do? Someone mentioned crowd funding some Billboards? Getting the Labour lies and expenses much more widely read.
Does anyone want to form a small committee to get this off the ground? I am happy to drive it if there is enough support on here.
Vote NO, get Tories
North British Branch London Labour Party = “Cameron’s Commandos”.
The only times Scotland has got anything out of Westminster is because they have been frightened to death by any increase in the SNP vote.
What about a little leaflet, we could all print them off and put them round the doors?
Would not be as expensive as billboard/s.
“Are you missing an election between 1997 and 2010?”
I do wish people would read the words before commenting, not just look at the pictures.
Vote SNP for the party that acts consistently in the interests of the people of Scotland. Even if it were true that a vote for SNP helps the Tories why on earth, in the current form, would a vote that helps the Labour party be any better? What does Ed and the bunch stand for, what difference are they going to make if they have any power? The austerity, the cuts and government by arrogance would all still be in place if we elected a Labour government. Don’t blame Scotland for the lack of real alternatives in the English constituencies at the next general election. We can’t fix it for them.
Good to see the evidence laid out, but even without it, the simple fact that Nicola Sturgeon has stated so emphatically that the SNP will not put the Tories into power means every vote for the SNP is a vote for a non-Tory government.
“If you want a Conservative government in London, the best thing you can do in Scotland is vote Labour.” True, but maybe even clearer if we substitute ‘Tory’ for ‘Conservative’ i.e. if you want a Tory government (Blue Tory or Red Tory), the best thing you can do in Scotland is vote Labour’. Although as someone pointed out above, we’ve already voted for Tories, by voting No.
Practical next steps? Make sure every house in the country knows what a stitch up this whole thing is and hope that enough people get angry. Tories will be quite happy though, and as we learned from the referendum, there are more tories than we thought.
I think the main difference for the next GE is not that far less people still see a mythical risk of voting SNP that may lead to Tory rule (Labour have surely researched that this mantra will have an impact). For sure less people will swallow it but many will.
For me the difference is that more people now know that Labour and Tory are actually quite close political friends. They see that voting Labour won’t change things for the better and have low trust in their governance and that they have very little focus on Scotlands needs versus Westminsters interests.
Until now people have been voting Labour as preference for Tory in a 2 horse race. The opportunity now is that people will hopefully see that voting SNP is the best way for a strong Scottish lobby regardless of Blue or red Tories.
Even the older no voters while they may be content with Tory and Labour to lead on the ‘together’ Defence and International issues + the UK financial system but will want MPs to push Scotlands interests in these and especially all ‘domestic’ concerns.
Labour have nothing new to add, have a Leader in London nobody trusts, have had a succession of impotent branch office pleaders instead of leaders. A lot of people in Scotland are now well aware of this.
IMHO People are finally considering: Why is Labour any better than the tories?
Helena that’s a great idea, leaflets which we can all print out and deliver.
Here’s one for Inverclyde leaflets.
link to chrismceleny.wordpress.com
I was in the pub to watch last night’s match and was reliably informed by a guy standing beside me at the bar of the stone-cold scientific fact that whenever the Scottish football team do well the SNP vote goes up.
Expect BBC Labour, therefore, to bombard us with constant replays of Gordon Brown’s favourite goal – Gazza’s strike at Wembley in 1996 – along with subiminal cuts of Bertie Vogts, George Burley and, oh, let’s say that big haddy Kevin Kyle.
Thank goodness we’ve found a better way to reinforce self-belief and national esteem than the fitba.
Great stuff. I’ve printed and placed in my canvassing folder, which I keep with me in my bag everywhere I go. Loads of the stuff in there is from Wings and includes the A4 big print version of WBB.
I frequently find myself watching the early evening news in my local and am able to use ‘my bible’ to quickly and effectively correct loads of pish before it’s done permanent damage to my fellow viewers. Well handy. I even produced it on a train once, to correct the ramblings of a couple of suits sitting opposite.
The thing is the SLAB in house magazine otherwise known as the Daily Record will continue to report voting SNP will let tories in regardless of all the evidence to the contrary, and (forgive me if you actually read it), the average Record reader cares more about the X FACTOR, Football & Horses & will not look beyond the first sentence of any political reporting.
Every SNP spokesperson being interviewed on TV or by the Papers should be getting this info firmly & clearly on the record at every possible opportunity.
It’s already pretty clear thar SLAB are going to fight dirty in the GE, and no underhand tactics or lies will go unused.
I think personally it’s time to start crowd funding Wee Blue Book 2 – the G E edition, with a focus on the dishonesty of the ‘Main’ UK parties. Stuff like manifesto commitment fails, voting records, expenses etc. Hit them where it hurts
Prediction number 1: not one ‘journalist’ in the ‘Scottish’ MSM will pick this up.
Prediction number 2: Reporting Scotland will open their bulletins on a daily basis starting in January with ‘Labour say a vote for the SNP will let the Conservatives in.’
Not exactly tough predictions to make, granted.
I forgot to add that people have trusted the SNP to be the most competent group to lead and manage Scotlands affairs within the Scottish parliament.
Now I think they are also ready to vote for the SNP as Scotlands voice in Westminster regardless of which PM is in power.
We need to push that message big time “Vote Labour Get Tories”. Pre empt SLab. Get our alternative message everywhere.
As Stu shows it has its literal statistical veracity in facts! It is an indisputable historical reality.
It has of course that double meaning where Labour ARE the Red Tories.
Labour ARE feckin Tories.
First class Rev.
Soooo basically we can’t protect/prevent the rUK from electing whatever government it wants. We can however safeguard Scotland’s interests by voting for parties who put the welfare of Scotland’s electorate first.
Seems like a plan.
Can you imagine if your second to none political analysis was at some point in the future broadcast on a Scottish News TV media outlet.
How awesome would that be.
Vote Labour-get Red Tories!
Cracking stuff Stu.
Do let us know when the Sunday Politics is in touch for permission to use your graphics when they challenge the candidates on their views. Breath duly hauded.
The stats seem counter-intuitive but, nevertheless, reveal the actual truth of the situation.
Agree with others here that this info needs distilled into a clever graphic:
“Vote Labour in Scotland – Get Tories in London”
“Vote SNP in Scotland – Get Labour in London.”
Weird but true.
Thanks Stu. for this. I’m going to include relevant points in a letter to my local paper!
PS. Letters
My longer version of it got printed today in the Airdrie and Coatbridge Advertiser.
I saw Anas get due prominence from the Speaker in the House of Fun.
O/T I have just listenened to Any Questions from Dundee and Any Answers on the iplayer. Mickey Forsyth was nearly credible in his points albeit he never addressed the real issues facing Scotland. He did however mention ‘this government’s debt’ and worried about how they were going to get rid of it – that will be the banker in him. Mags Curran was her usual banshee while Shona Robinson scored well.
But as with all these London produced programmes when it came to ‘Any Answers’ there was not one item concerning Scotland. 90% of the programme was taken up with a footballer at Sheffield United seeking to get a contract from his former club after serving a sentence for rape.
We are not well served with the broadcasting franchise in Scotland. We need a fundamental shift in responsibility for broadcasting. Will the Smith Commission deliver.
I have just seen something pink and porcine fly past the window.
Sarwar is really just a walking talking lying machine, there is nothing else about him. The people have woken up to the fact that Miliband is another Cameron in that he is bound by austerity measures and obsessed with attracting the UKIP vote. This is something that Sarwar (looking after his own back as usual) fails to remember when trying to convince the electorate that a vote for Labour will actually do some good for once.
A strong SNP vote brings in real change, they’ve proved that over the last seven years. What has Labour proved? A YES Alliance vote for SNP in GE2015 and a YES Alliance multiparty vote in SE2016 will change Scotland forever. Kick Westminster out of Scotland!
The red tories are about to get a taste of their own project fear medicine south of the border:
“Vote UKIP, get Ed Milliband!”
That’s a big percentage jump to the blue tories a dead cert for 2015.
Great article. This raises further questions. Their goal, unlike Scottish labour, is to win elections, not to damage the SNP. Are UK labour really so dim not to have noticed this?
@ Nana Smith. Thanks for your excellent links!
Great article Stu! I take photos on my iPad and they go onto my iPhone so I always have these great bits of information with me. Great to be able to produce these in a discussion!
@ manandboy
I’ve copied some of your comments into my notes and use them too for discussions!
What a great site this is!!
Vote SNP in May, get Salmond as deputy PM.
Truth, damn Truth and Statistics!
As for Stus lament of “Please read the words,not just look at the pictures’..a phrase once cited by Forum magazine, or so Im guessing
To build a little on what @ TD at 1.03 said, my late granddad, a fervent Communist, often said “Don’t confuse them with the facts their mind is made up” and @ John Gibson at 12.58 who said “there is a world where Sarwar is telling the truth”
Vote SNP get Tory is a lie, a big one, the facts prove it. But the bigger the lie and the more often it is repeated the more it sometimes gains credence because the truth confuses people. How could we have been so blind as not to see we were being lied to? That is a difficult step for people to take.
I, in common with most on here I think, like facts, I like numbers, I like the truth. But these alone do not always, on their own, work, or else we would be free. Sometimes you have to keep your facts short, simple, catchy and relevant to your audience.
It should not be difficult to catch out any politician in the Scottish Labour Party, their depth of talent is underwhelming and each day brings us further proof. But in doing that we must not alienate their supporters by tarring them with the same brush.
We should never confuse loyalty, however unearned it might be, with stupidity.
Keep giving us the facts Stu but let us keep it simple when we are in canvass mode.
Vote SNP get Scotland.
Election of FM on Bbc 2 at 2.40pm,please watch also Hollyrood TV on your PC. I have challenged the breakdown in the broadband since last year, it happens at the most important points in a speech. AS with the speech of Alex Salmond, there was continual disruption of service, that does,nt happen with Bbc democracy live,maybe the de_coder has fallen over again & no one noticed.
Re: comment by G.P. walrus.
Please observe Stuart’s reply and read the words before commenting.
Quote: “The elections we’ve left out don’t change the overall picture at all”.
Tells us what we knew already, Scots are tactical voters. It also tells us that this has been ineffective as we are simply outnumbered. At times of greatest Tory support we must stick with the party we support rather than tacitly agree to vote for Labour to prop them up at Wrstminster.
Great work once again Stu, in addition to getting these stats out to voters themselves directly via billboards, it would also be very handy for the SNP to have them memorised. When someone from Labour/BBC reporter inevitably trots out this lie in studio and instead of Sturgeon, Hosie etc. saying “oh that’s just incorrect”, they can instead reel off a few facts from previous GE’s proving the opposite – that is far more believable to viewers, as well as putting the shitters into Labour and their pundits,perhaps to the point they stop repeating it.
Place your bets if you think Prof. John Curtice will be citing such vital statistical information anytime between now and May?
Whether in government or opposition, Scottish (and I use that term loosely) Labour
MPsdrones are simply lobby-fodder for the Whips – nothing more. A cursory glance at Labour’s 40 incumbents in its ‘North Britain Branch’ confirms that fact.Except of course when they’re railing against those nasty, narrow-minded nationalists, in which case, like a clockwork toy, their London masters simply wind-em-up, fix ’em a slot on the Beeb, and watch-em-go. (In full anti-SNP venom-spitting mode they even put the desk-thumping Duracell bunnies in Labour’s Holyrood ranks to shame).
All that for £67k, plus half as much again in expenses. To quote John Lydon, “Ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated?”
Stu,
Not sure how your readership stats are holding up but I suspect (though could be wrong) that after the Ref Campaign a sizeable percentage of former readers may have lost interest. These people may revert to their traditional voting habit come GE2015.
You have everyone’s email address. I think this type of info (in the form of a wee PDF leaflet or JPG) would be good to send to those readers who have not logged in for a while.
Just trying to think of ways of keeping people on-track for GE2015.
Last night’s totally bizarre programme was a thinly disguised Party Political Broadcast for Labour’s Jockland branch. Why did BBC Jockland not have a similar SNP Deputy Leader programme? I recorded it and forced myself, under great duress, to re-watch, to count how many times the branch office manager candidates, plus the wretchedly insipid Labour devotee interviewer, plus Labour’s acolyte audience mentioned ‘The SNP’ or their (SNP) policies or SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon.
It was FORTY EIGHT TIMES! FORTY EIGHT TIMES! Now a really impartial interviewer could have made mincemeat of these three ‘likely lads & ladette’ by e.g. ‘If UK Labour continues to endorse renewing Trident, there’s heehaw Labour’s Jockland branch manager can do about it, is there?’ So what exactly is the point of mentioning Trident on this programme at all? or ‘Do you agree ridding Scotland of Trident would have saved XXX millions per year? Or asking Murphy, ‘Could you have afforded your nine years at uni, if the Scottish taxpayer had not paid your fees and just how did you manage not to get kicked out of Uni before your 9 years was up, and left uni with BA, (bugger all)?
And she could have asked, ‘What is the Jockland Labour branch manager’s views on the First Lord stating that the MOD could award the new warships not to Govan, as promised, but to France? She could also just have said, ‘I’ll wait ’til you get onto the phone to ask Ed what your answers are’.
Not sure how your readership stats are holding up but I suspect (though could be wrong) that after the Ref Campaign a sizeable percentage of former readers may have lost interest.
As I said last month, readership is currently around 300K, which is significantly up on what it was in July before the huge referendum spikes in August and September.
You have everyone’s email address. I think this type of info (in the form of a wee PDF leaflet or JPG) would be good to send to those readers who have not logged in for a while.
Um, I don’t have everyone’s email address, and even if I did internet companies tend to frown on you spamming links to half a million people.
HAHAHA Wee ruthie applying for a job…..Geez what a numptie!
Hilariously, due to my Unite the Union connections, I have a vote in the Labour Leadership election lol
Who should I vote for to give Labour the biggest problems? Or is it immaterial who wins the poisoned chalice?
Is there an argument for a GE2015 updated ‘Even Wee-er Blue Book’ to promote this sort of information to voters?
@think again says: We should never confuse loyalty, however unearned it might be, with stupidity.
How right you are, this is our greatest challenge. It is why Yes didn’t quite get over the line on September 19. Some people vote labour, vote no, vote union…..just because they want to. They don’t need or want facts.
But time is on our side. Each decade, the old loyalties melt away. And more. As Scottish Labour chase their lost Yes voters does it not occur to them that if they succeed in winning them back they will have in their ranks more supporters in favour of independence than ever before.
The SNP grabbed opportunity out of defeat. Scottish Labour blew it the day the referendum question was announced and they handed the agenda over to the Tories. If they had any quality in their ranks, they would have stayed separate, campaigned on maximum devolution, pushed for the third question and made it their own.
The result, in the end, will be the same. It is a matter of time. The clock is running.
The most important question which Smith should have asked last night to all three candidates was. ‘What happened to the devomax ‘vow’ to wee Jockland by Gordon Brown?’ ‘Do you think that might be why you’re now a dead party walking in the polls, at all, at all?
O/T
I see Royal Mail are struggling to maintain the Universal Service Obligation, expected to disproportionately impact Scotland. Surprise Surprise.
But of interest in the report is that they say “For the Scottish independence referendum, the company said it delivered over seven million campaign mailings and over five million poll cards.”
Five million polling cards for a reported electorate of 4,283,392.
Hmmmm… strange indeed.
Sorry OT.
How can Ruth stand as FM? I don’t understand the rules!
Would be interesting to find out if any slab msp votes for a tory.
They are like the sheep in Animal Farm who can only bleat “four legs good, two legs bad”.
As I have mentioned in previous posts, this garbage has been doing the rounds for years and sadly has been believed. Hopefully now thanks to forums such as this, the scales will fall from the electorates eyes and this lot will be given their jotters in May.
66-15, and 39 abstentions. Congrats Nicola.
Gosh wonder who abstained, and why…
Fair balance in BBC ‘messages for Nicola Sturgeon’ 1 Wishing her well 3 Reminding she personally ‘Made a Vow’ in writing, to UK, on behalf of all SNP past,present or future, that there would never be another referendum as long as anyone living could remember the last. After all it was 25% Yes 75% No.
Listening to Baillie, what a prune. Not a smidgeon of grace.
OT – Congratulations to Nicola Sturgeon on being elected First Minister.
Please all you wingers up there. Print as many of these as you can, put on the top ‘please copy and pass on’ and leave them everywhere! Coffe shops, hairdressers, etc., etc..
The so called media cannot be relied upon to tell this to our fellow Scots.
Text behind the main image:
“Isn’t it weird to be the deputy leader of something, then to not only NOT stand when the leadership is up for grabs, but to resign your deputy position too?”
Talk about hitting the nail on the head? How anyone can admit voting for labour without simultaneously dying of embarrassment is beyond me. Is it a prerequisite for a labour candidate to be thoroughly gaff-prone, or were the present crop just exposed to a bad batch of immunisation vaccines when they were kids?
39 Abstentions? Hmmm. That wouldn’t be Labour being childish, would it?
But this ignores some key facts, most notably that the SNP had never had a lead over Labour at a GE, at currently polling there could be a double digit swing of seats to SNP, that we currently have a coalition government and a hung parliament is likely and finally, the presence of UKIP.
@Cuilean at 2:37 pm
I enjoyed that one. I detected an echo in my boiling blood.
I think the only safe conclusion to draw for these tables, is that it doesn’t matter how Scotland votes. It’s how England votes that determines if the tories get in or not.
This spectacle for the benefit of Scottish labour and its supporters, showed that once again, they have decided not to do something about that Tin ear of theirs.
Re: Cuilean @ 2.37pm
And there was me thinking i was the only saddo on here!
I sat and did something similar and got the following statistics
over a 45 minute programme masquerading as a “debate” but was
nothing short of a blatant Slabber promo (or PPB).
Boyacks body language said far more than any of the participants
ever could – talk about not wanting to be associated with JM.
Ooooft.
Throughout the 45min PPB –
The word “referendum” was mentioned:
NF: 5
SB: 3
JM: 2
SS: 2
The letters “SNP” were mentioned:
NF: 1
SB: 5
JM: 12
SS: 8
In the opening couple of minutes the voice-over referred to the
referendum 3 times and the SNP 4 times. And throughout the PPB
there was several direct references to “Nicola Sturgeon”.
Make of that what you will but i think it’s hilarious having
the warmongering Skeletor sitting there lying to the nation and
stating how he doesn’t want to be the sort of leader who is
constantly sniping at or about the SNP, who then goes on over a
45 minute period to mention and snipe at the SNP more than the
other 2 “candidates” put together.
I’ve not even started gathering the quotes from that programme,
but it’s full of excellent quotable ammunition.
btw, that’s another really good and informative article up there
Stu. With the appropriate wording, the use of that graph coupled
with the use of the graph below, on the reverse side, we could
produce a very hot leaflet warning folk to prepare for the lies.
link to wingsoverscotland.com
Wee Ruthie@ the Scottish parliment.
give her points for trying eh.
Ms Davidson says she will likely lose the election, but she wants a Scotland “where government is there to help”.
aye Ruth, That’s why Nicola is our new FM and not a you ya daft tory..
Vote Labour get SlabberServative
And if you want Scotland to have more power at Westminster you MUST vote SNP, because it is the only party which will guard Scotland’s interests. Scottish Labour MPs will not do that because they will either be following the English Labour Party’s agenda and/or looking after their own personal interests.
Given the number of seats that look to be heading to the SNP in May, had it happened in 2010 it could have stirred up the current landscape down there significantly (or not at all).
Instead of the current con-lib coalition we could have had a Lab/Lib/SNP rainbow.
Imagine how that set-up would have affected the hue of the indyref output spewed forth from Westminster (remembering the coalition would have been formed before indyref was even a twinkle in our eyes).
Whats the bets that SLAB MPs/MSPs/Councillors were supporting England last night? Thats what they did in the referendum.
Murphy is London’s man, and history shows its always London’s Man / Wifie that gets it.
Same mistakes, different coupons
What Labour are failing to realise that a vote for Labour is just that, a vote for Labour. They have made themselves as toxic as the Tories in Scotland and they can’t quite grasp that Scotland doesn’t want either of them now.
I was one of the SNP at Holyrood elections and Labour at Westminster voters….never again! Moreover, I also live in Murphys constituency and I’m ashamed now for being one of the ones that put him into Westminster. One thing I would say though is that this was a safe Tory seat until not long ago, if the good folks can switch that quickly to making it what’s now deemed to be a safe Labour seat it’s not beyond hope we can switch again. General chat in the Redhurst is pretty much the same, but, and to put it bluntly, there isn’t many Jews in the pub
Who would want a coalition with Labour? Would mean giving up the principles of anto Nuclear weapons, anto Radio-active waste dumping and anti warmongering.
‘Colin Dunn says:
19 November, 2014 at 2:46 pm
Is there an argument for a GE2015 updated ‘Even Wee-er Blue Book’ to promote this sort of information to voters?’
A Wee Westminster book….detailing all the Troughing bastards, how they voted, their group memberships, their expenses and what they didn’t turn up for
I think that would do the trick?
Yes, I thought the 39 abstentions was a high number too.
@Cuilean @2.37 I watched the charade of a political programme with the 3 prospective deputies, with the audience of their dedicated arse lickers.
What was the purpose of that programme, other than a platform for slagging SNP? They are bereft of ideas, just regurgitating what SNP are doing, like on the Living Wage.
They simply cannot physically talk politics, without a slanging match on the SNP.
On the English political page I follow, you always get the English pleading, saying ‘Scots, please vote Labour and help us get Cameron out’ so I’m used to seeing that guff frequently. My response is simple, stop saying that, because Scotland has voted Labour, and we have the unholy alliance of the coalition.
I tell them they must vote Green or Plaid, because if we have a large SNP presence, we will have more power to vote down right wing proposals. We need a strong left wing presence in Westminster.
Looking ahead though, the SLavering party has little alternative to targeting the SNP – since there’s no one else to target.
Wingman 2020,
I have contacts in the billboard industry in Scotland and could help if you manage to get crowd funding up and running. Do you have an idea of the number of sites you are considering to get an idea of how much money will be required?
Here we have another slabber hopeful, I wonder if she knows how her party in other councils are doing their best to block fair pay.
link to cumnockchronicle.com
link to chrismceleny.wordpress.com
That link i posted at 3.28pm would obviously need to be revamped and the reference to September 2014 etc removed if we were to use it for election material.
This one:
link to wingsoverscotland.com
With this one:
link to wingsoverscotland.com
Accompanied by appropriate wording warning people of the Slabber lies and the dangers of voting for Slabber it would create a very powerful piece of election kit.
The wording would have to be brief and pack a punch.
btw, i still prefer the Wee Black Book idea, crammed full of
facts, statistics and LibLabCon lies etc.
If there was a new version of the Wee Blue Book some info on how we got a devolved Parliament would be important.
It wasn’t Labour who ‘gave’ it to us after all. They had to implement it, but it was the Scotland-UN committee and the Council of Europe who made them do it.
If it hadn’t been brought in for Scotland, and Wales, the UK would have been pushed off the Council of Europe.
Blair with bad grace, and giving the minimum powers, put it into place.
39 abstentions seem normal.
I gather that every conservative MSP voted for R.D.
Every SNP + green for N.S.
Labour abstained. The others did not vote?
What surprised me is that using an electronic votation system with chip cards one has to wait five minutes to re-count the votes. That’s crazy.
Woah! Fighting in London right now in central London, on Free Education March!
Vote Labour get the Tories, either the real ones or even better now you can also get the ersatz red ones…..
It will of course come down to this “SNP is wasted vote argument” and my gut feel is that people will bottle it again.
It’s not conclusive, unlike the good Rev’s other analysis, but a suggestive reason for the results shown is that, when Labour is appealing to Scottish voters (e.g. actually left-wing) it is unappealing to English voters.
Therefore, to win elections it needs to appeal to English voters (85% of total population) rather than Scottish voters (9.5%). When doing so it antagonises an element who, not weaned on a natural hatred of the SNP, vote SNP.
Just a quick thought.
@Valerie
Students outside buck house chanting “build a bonfire”
(www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/u/more-than-a-quarter-of-scots-against-a-second-referendum.1416223844)
More examples of what we are up against
“We weren’t lied to.
We don’t regret it.
We didn’t like what you were selling.
We didn’t buy it.
Get over it
Scotland said NO quite clearly to the question that was asked on the 18th September.”
“Exactly – and the total contempt for democracy being demonstrated by some within the independence camp is yet further evidence of what we have been saved from.
A “once in a generation” opportunity and “both sides will respect the outcome of the referendum” – the words of Alex Salmond before the referendum. Clearly that was only meant to apply if he got the outcome he wanted, judging by the way he quickly changed his tune when he lost.”
And how about this-
.“This country is also still a democracy thankfully but I shudder to think what dictatorship we would be living under if you and the SNP’s had got heir way. North Korea springs to mind.”
AuldA @4:21
I recon it was 64 SNP+2 Indy for NS, 15 Tories for RD, 38 SLAB+1 Indy abstained, LibDems/Greens didn’t vote.
Don’t know how many MSPs in total were sitting however.
@Nana Smith 4.08. Thanks for the link to the Cumnock Chronicle.
link to cumnockchronicle.com
I shall sleep better tonight knowing Cathy Jamieson M.P, meantime, and Carol Mochan prospective MSP are following the dear prospective leader`s (Spud) lead on fair pay. They will all of course know that East Ayrshire fought long and hard to avoid implementing equal pay for women and that North Lanarkshire continue to hold out.
Hypocrisy doesn`t begin to cover it.
You know Labour is rattled as there are numerous letters in the press regarding the events of 1979 when Thatcher was elected due to getting a majority of votes and seats in England. Two million more votes than Labour in England.
Despite the rigged referendum in March 1979 producing a YES vote for a Scottish Assembly the Labour government refused to implement the majority wishes of the Scottish people.
In fact the SNP Voting record in 1978/79 was with Labour 46.7% and with Tories 20%
Like Gordon Brown in 2008, Callaghan had a chance to go to the country in October 1978 but “bottled” it after private polling data suggested a parliamentary majority was highly unlikely. Then following the Winter of Discontent with numerous union led strikes and power cuts there was absolutely no chance of Labour winning a general election even if they had stayed on to the bitter end in October 1979.
The 14 Liberals formally ended the “pact” which had sustained Labour since 1977 AND ALSO VOTED AGAINST Callaghan’s government.
On In March 28th 1979 the vital no confidence vote was lost through the absence of Sir Alfred Broughton, Labour MP for Batley, who was too ill to attend and the unexpected non voting of two Irish republican MPs who normally supported Labour but felt that Labour had double crossed them on redrawing the political boundaries in Northern Ireland.
In fact Gerry Fitt and Frank Maguire flew from Belfast to London expressly not to vote.
Labour does’nt give a damn about evidence to the contrary.
An empty slogan works repeated often enough: ‘Better Together,’ ‘No plan B,”Loss of 11,000 jobs,’ ad nauseam, ad infinitum.
Labour Scotland are inadequate to the task of governing our nation, second rate aiming for third-rate. Knowing that they resort to black propaganda and empty slogans.
What else have they to offer the electorate?
It’s bad enough voting Labour and getting a Tory govt.
But any time in the last 35 years that people have elected a Labour govt, they get Tory policies.
Remember how, Peter Mandelson said in 1998 that he was “intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich”
Your analysis is very helpful.
I have to say however that, given Labour’s recent behaviour and the outright betrayal of its principles, I would, regretfully, find the prospect of a Conservative government whose actions were heavily moderated by a large SNP contingent less alarming than an unfettered Labour government. Admittedly not a positive choice!
Great work. Here In England, Labour’s probably not going to get back in power this time anyway, Crash and the Flipper legacy way too toxic. But they have to keep contirol of Scotland so It’s going to be fascinatiing to see just how effective the BBC actually is trying to save at least some Labour seats. To be fair they should be confident after winning the referendum at 55%. Vote Tory in England , vote Labour in Scotland. They also did a staggering amount of campaigning for UKIP in Scotland and so we got Jabba the Hut for Scotland’s rep at Brussels. That’s real BBC power. Another two week BBC vote Labour Scotlland shock and awe blitz in May, like the run up to the 18th Sept, should save some of them .
The tragedy is that to many SCOTS believe there is a difference between TOLLIES & LABOUR. When in fact they both do as the ESTABLISHMENT demands on major issues and are allowed to tinker about the edges provided they do as they are told. The EBC & MSM who are also tools of the ESTABLISHMENT do the propaganda job, and all the fairy stories and football are left to their own imaginations.
Money and power control WESTMINSTER, labour or tolly along with EBC, MSM.
AYE ITS GREAT TO LIVE IN A “free democratic country” just ask EBC or The MSM THEY ALWAYS TELL THE TRUTH.
It’s fun how this works on a constituency level, too. There is exactly one occasion since records began where the people of Inverclyde ended up with a Conservative MP – 1983, the year of the biggest Conservative majority of modern times, when it was part of the Renfrew West & Inverclyde constituency. How could Inverclyde, land of the Red Clydeside, a socialist heartland, possibly vote Conservative during the reign of Thatcher?
Simple: someone split the vote. The SNP? Well, here are the results:
Anna McCurley, Conservative: 13,669
Dickson Mabon, Social Democratic: 12,347
G. Doherty, Labour: 12,139
W. Taylor, SNP: 3,653
So the SNP got just about a quarter of Labour’s vote in 1983… and we got a Conservative anyway, on a pitiful 32% of the vote, because the socialist vote was split between the Social Democrats (whatever happened to them?) and Labour. Hmm, wonder how many constituencies there are where the Labour & /SNP have split the vote and ended up with a Tory? That’s almost certainly not going to happen now, though: the Tories & Lib Dems are more likely to get people to vote for Labour tactically than the SNP.
“Vote SNP, get Tories”. GE15 Labour Campaign Slogan.
I prefer this:
Indy Prosperity Alliance (SNP-Greens-SSP)
or
Tory-Labour Austerity Alliance
Stew,
Go on get them stuck up in the “clock-work oranges”, and the tube station walls!!.
(Sorry in a hurry, have not read all the postings, so if someone else put forward that suggestion,
Humble apologies)
Labour – a mouse hoping to become a rat.
“The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
? George Orwell, Animal Farm
Circulating on FB, UKIP getting vocal support, from known far right groups, Britain First, and BNP.
It’s finally official, where UKIP go, knuckle draggers not far behind.
BTW, did you notice England supporters last night singing anti IRA songs, a FA official had to stop the band?
Taranaich @5.29 says “…the Social Democrats (whatever happened to them?) and Labour”
I ask: “…and Labour (whatever happened to them?) !!!
They all seem to forget the simple fact that a vote for SNP is anti -tory (just as much as a labour vote)so the maths remain the same. The difference would be that labour prospective government could not follow an austerity agenda because SNP would not back them. So in effect
Vote Labour get Austerity, Vote SNP get fairness and power over policy. SNP would have far more clout with London labour than the Scottish Labour branch would as they would be lobby fodder anyway. We just need that message to get out there.
I am getting really tired of the scottish media
Something else worth noting. Labour had the chance of going in to coalition with Libdems and nationalists in 2010, but bottled it. Result- David Cameron’s years of austerity.
And another thing, lets not forget what Callaghan said in his memoirs about his own party on losing the 1979 election.
“In his (i.e. Michael Cox, Labour’s Chief Whip) view, the difficulty within the (Labour) Party, was much greater than any from the Scottish National Party, and the Whip’s judgement was that the government could not rely on the votes of Labour members from the north if we moved to reject the Repeal Order……… we could lose the vote.”
In short, Labour back benchers, including Neil Kinnock, Brian Wilson et al, would have preferred, not just to see, but to participate in, the demise of their own government, rather than honour Labour’s manifesto commitment to the Scottish people, by establishing the Assembly which Scots had already voted ‘yes’ for in the Referendum.
@ Taranaich
What happened to that particular Social Democrat is that, having been the Labour MP for Greenock and Port Glasgow from 1955 to 1981, jumped ship to the SDP but been unable to persuade the Liberal candidate in his seat to stand aside for him in 1983, failed again as an Alliance candidate in Renfrew West in 1987 and as a European Parliament candidate in between, he rejoined Labour in 1991.
I used to rather like his name, so was particularly unimpressed when he defected and then caused so much trouble, even though I never met him and he probably wasn’t anywhere near as interesting as I thought!
It wouldn’t surprise me, though, if his nearly-local connections and history in Labour played a big part in his near victory; most candidates would not have split the vote that way – Anna McCurley didn’t last long. I’ve just discovered that she tried to be the candidate in Eastwood in 1997, when of course Murphy was elected, but has since become a Liberal Democrat!
@taranaich
Anna McCurley. I recall her. Babe a licious if I remember. I think I would have voted her into office – especially if she was up against Jackie, Kez or Magrit.
OT
Revamp of the ‘Amore’ spoof
When there’s no reason why
But they still need to lie
They’re a Tory
Red, Yellow or Blue
Or the UKIP ones too
They’re a Tory
Tills’ll ring
Ting-a-ling-a-ling
Ting-a-ling-a-ling
When they claim their expenses
We’ll all pay
Really-need tae-pay
Every-single-day
For all their offenses.
When the ermine calls them
Whether SLAB or LibDem
They’re a Tory
Or they preach in the street
Telling crowds that they meet, ‘tough luck plebs’
Or if someone shouts ‘Scam!’
They just take a dram and ignoray
On a train or a plane,
Back to Troughland again, they’re a Tory.
To win 20/30 seats at GE15 Labour need only the following:-
1. John McTernan – with a Fear, Smear, Lies,Threats &
Bribery campaign.
2. The BBC – TV & Radio
3. STV
4. The Daily Record and The Herald
5. Jim Murphy & Anas Sarwar
6. The OO for leafleting and signs.
7. Postal Voting – administered by the local Labour Group.
8. The Vote – administered by the local Labour Group.
9. The Cloak of Democracy
10.A naieve electorate – who believe what they are told.
11.An unusually high number of spare voting papers.
Have I missed anything?
To win 40 Plus seats in GE15, The Indy Prosperity Alliance need only the following:-
TBA
I found the comment to the effect that Royal Mail sent out 5 Million Poll Cards very interesting – I wonder why.
My household has just had two pkonecalls from the labour party asking for support for the new candidate taking over from Eric Joyce. My wife told them it was wrong to phone in the middle of people’s evening mealtime and was aggrieved it was a political party who called , she hung up. the phone immediately went again same person and I answered this time:- “will you be voting labour in 2015?” “it is the only way to stop the tories getting in” I told him emphatically it was not he disputed it. “can I ask what way you voted in the last election?” he asked again I refused to answer. He then went on to that bad mr Sammin claiming an allowance of £60,000 which no labour mp ever has. I replied to the effect that Eric joyce claims more in a year than eck ever did and he wasn’t alone in being a scourge on our public purse. I asked him what he would do when he was out of a job due to Labour being wiped out he came back to that nasty ex FM. I wished him luck in finding a job and hung up
Simply be honest with the electorate.
Vote labour, get tories, red or blue.
Vote SNP/Yes alliance, get a massive voice fighting for Scots.
If you are thinking of NOT voting for option 2, then vote Tory, at least they know how to be Tories and frankly, like or loathe them, you know what you are going to get, so why vote labour and get wannabe tories ?
Laura Kuenssberg, newsnight report for tonite, not in Scotland?
link to bbc.co.uk
@Nana Smith
Students outside buck house chanting “build a bonfire”
I like the cut of their jib…
Does the logic of these statistics require me to conclude, since we are the other end of the Tory see saw, that we ARE Tartan Tories? Distressing!
Ahh but the real truth is….. vote labour and get tory. Whether the tory is red or blue it amounts to the same. Meaning we’re all f#cked!!!
The proposed leaflets should simply ask: Does your MP’s efforts for you and your community justify their total earnings of (put in amount) a year?
it would be useful to remember what Scotland got when it voted in the “Feeble Forty Nine” and the “Feeble Fifty” Labour MPs. They saw their steel mills (the most productive in the UK )closed and their industrial base destroyed.
Having marched about Lanarkshire on campaigns to save our steel industry (with never a sighting of the great John Smith) I recognised a lot of the vested interest in Scottish Labour were probably judging that Tories closing Ravenscraig would mean extra votes for Labour.
That doesn’t actually seem to be true. Follow it up and it goes nowhere but a file of unanswered letters and some holiday snaps.
Surprisingly, the Greens abstained along with Labour. Patrick Harvie has been trying to justify this on Twitter, but it seems to come down to “we’re a different party”.
Morag doll – we will see you on Saturday won’t we – you are the head girl xx
What the Scottish electorate need to consider is that there is no way that labour will keep all their seats in Scotland and its looking decidedly bleak for them in England so if they want a party that will be able and willing to stand up against westminster and the possible blue tory / ukip coalition, they should vote SNP. Only the SNP will have the clout and determination to hold westmnister to account.
More and more people will be voting SNP instead of labour so if you want to kick the tories where they need kicked, VOTE SNP.
Not if I’m going to be bullied. I’ll be there, I’ve given up on a birthday treat to go, but there will be 12,000 people and I have no idea how or where or when to find any Wings contingent.
(Don’t cry for me, the birthday treat is happening on Sunday instead.)
Morag and others – Cactus mentioned meeting up after Nicola’s gig, at the Hydro public bar, and having looked on the website, I think he means the Clydesider. From there, onto the YESBar. So just look for the hat.
I’ll try that. You look for my hat, too. It’s got the Wings badge in it.
@ Morag
@ T Jenny
Given the numbers that are likely descend on any bar after the Hydro, I hope those are tall, very tall hats.
Cactus, I think you need a 10 gallon hat instead of a Stetson
Is it not about time someone took these liars to task in the court of law? It’s completely unfounded allegations that damage the reputation of the SNP – the basis of many a court case. I can’t understand why they are not shown up for what they are by a Judge’s ruling.
Fundamentally we could all vote Monster Raving Loony in Scotland and it would make hee-haw difference to who gets the top job
which is what we’ve been saying, and others have not been getting, all along
What Labour don’t seem to get is that people voted No on the promise of devo-max/home rule/federal UK made by Gordon Brow, so people on both sides, yes and no, want to see that delivered.
However, Labours submission to the Smith Commission doesn’t come anywhere close to devo max. In fact it falls short of what every other party has proposed, it even falls short of what the Conservatives have proposed.
If they want people to vote for them then they need to propose a hell of a lot more than they have and if they want to use the prospect of a Tory government as a threat then the very least they need to do is offer more devolution than the Tories.
The message we need to get out is that a red Tory government is just as bad.
They are proposing even less powers than the tories.
We need a block of pro-Scottish MP’s to protect Scotland, no matter who forms the UK government.
@Robertknight + Morag:
Thanks for that. My message was based on my own suppositions just after the vote had taken place.
I concur I find strange the greens have abstained. Maybe they were expecting some nomination in the yet-to-be-announced cabinet they weren’t able to broker?
Best wishes for tomorrow!
Everytime I hear a “vote x get y” I think “are you that shit at maths?”.
Vote x and you get x. Therefore you have one less that can vote for y…
Surely the best way not to get y is to vote ANYONE BUT y. Whether it be x,z or a purple unicorn…
Personally my bet is on the Unicorn
In case you haven’t noticed, this election is not going to play out like previous ones. Scottish seats will be decisive, and the SNP surge has a very high likelihood of endangering a Labour majority, this time.
Reply to CharlieMurphy
Well said Cherlie. I do hope you are not related to Saint Jimmy Murphy or liar Francis Currant.
I take it you know that the Murphys were bards to the Clan Donald and were at Bannockburn with their harpist urging them on to the Sassunachs. The names gradually became O’Murchu, (PC) Murdoch, McMurdoch, McMurchie, Murchie, McCurran, Curran, Curry, etc.
There is a good clan book on it, “The Sword and the Harp”, I will look it out for the ISBN, no, etc, if you want. It was publishe foem a printeer that was in an old Church building in Strathblane years ago.I have known lots of Murphys in Scotland and Ireland, one even in the Orange Order, but I doubt evem he would be daft enough to believe in anything St Jimmy says.
It’s not the total votes that determine the election result. It’s the number of seats won.
In a two-horse race, as in Scotland, the more seats the SNP wins, the fewer Labour wins.
In Britain as a whole, the fewer seats Labour wins, the bigger the overall Tory majority.
So voting SNP assists the Tories to win.