The broad church
Our feather-ruffling Panelbase poll of SNP voters is now almost at an end, with only one further revelation to come tomorrow. So we thought it was worth taking a moment for a little bit of closer examination of just who the respondents were.
We know, of course, that the criteria for the sample was people who said they currently intend to vote for the SNP with their constituency vote at the next Scottish Parliament election in 2021. But what else do we know about them?
We found, for example, that 64% were in employment, with 15% retired, 6% describing themselves as a housewife/househusband, 4% students, and 10% either unemployed or off work through ill-health or disability.
57% owned their home, with 41% in rented accommodation.
83% were born in Scotland, 9% in England (which means that there are over 100,000 English-born SNP voters who are presumably going to be pretty shocked when they find out from angry Unionists on the internet that the party they vote for hates them), 3% from European nations outside the UK and 3% from the rest of the world.
(83% is incidentally also the proportion of those English-born SNP voters who say they’d vote Yes in a new indyref, with 8% planning to vote No and 9% undecided. The figures for those born in Scotland aren’t too different at 5% No and 4% undecided.)
51% of them felt like they understood the Scottish Parliament’s electoral system “fairly well”, with another 23% saying “very well”, while 20% said their understanding was “fairly poor” and 6% said “very poor”. We think we’ve been hearing quite a bit from the last two groups recently [eye roll].
But there were two especially interesting categories.
We can’t begin to imagine what’s going through the minds of the 2% of SNP voters who want to stay in the UK but leave the EU. All we can say is they must be REALLY impressed with the party’s domestic record.
The substantial minority who want independence but also Brexit remain a headache for the party. But there was one finding we found particularly surprising.
Of SNP voters who want independence in the EU, almost one in five prioritise the latter over the former. This of course more or less tallies with the overall figures we revealed earlier in the week, but to see it specifically in the Yes+Remain group is quite startling.
Equally weirdly, the figures were exactly reversed in the No+Remain group. Among those who want to stay in BOTH unions, almost 20% said they would would sacrifice the UK to keep Scotland alone in the EU, even though the alternative option was to stay in both, which is the outcome they prefer.
The only explanation that makes any sense is that while those people do want to stay in the EU, they don’t believe it should be forced on the people of England and Wales, who voted Leave. That’s a sentiment we’ve seen before, and it’s an admirable one.
(We should perhaps point out that it’s less admirable on the other side of the equation, where 19% of Yes/Remainers are willing to sacrifice independence in order to forcibly impose something on England and Wales that England and Wales voted against.)
That takes us to our final question (apart from tomorrow’s), and one to which the SNP perhaps ought to pay particularly close attention.
Exactly half of our sample of SNP voters – 50% – voted for a different party prior to the 2014 indyref. Indeed, when you exclude the number who didn’t vote at all previously, they comfortably outnumber lifelong SNP supporters.
Fully a third of SNP voters were formerly Labour. That includes significant numbers who voted No in 2014, but possibly more surprisingly a substantial cohort who still plan to vote No should there be a second referendum, or haven’t made up their minds.
There’s also a perhaps unexpectedly large faction within the SNP support (15% in total) that used to vote Lib Dem or Tory, most of which is still firmly No.
In other words, more than half of the SNP’s voters are people who have changed party in the last few years. It follows logically that they might be prepared to do so again – or to simply stay at home, as one-third of 2015 SNP voters did in 2017.
In politics in general – and doubly so when you appear to be hell-bent on forcing through policies which are opposed by most of your own voters – it’s rarely wise to take your support for granted.
So in short, we have a fairly good chance of being F***ked.
Fascinating to see these numbers – the make up of SNP members/voters post-2014 was always going to be fickle, based on the myriad factors that brought them to back the party.
I find it quite unfathomable as to why the SNP behave as if they have a solid mass of continuing support – a bird in the hand comes to mind!
This is what happens when you do competent Governing.
And they’re doing it deliberately. The bastards.
It’s kinda worrying when you’re supposed raison d’être is diluted to such a point, where an alarmingly large percentage of your party members are actively against it.
This, coming from a fan of the Gradualists. Hi Eck 🙂
I’ll be voting for Indy, and I’ll hold my nose and vote SNP until we get there, but after that? The safety of my wife and all other (real) women will come first and if the SNP continue with there dangerous self-id attitude I either stop voting or vote for a party which is anti self-id.
And if that makes me transphobic tough!
But surely Progress Scotland; the pro-independence think tank, led by the estimable Angus Robertson, given the extensive polling that they have done to date, will know all of this detail already? 😉
Michty meeee.
As a life long SNP Supporter, disappointed barely covers it today.
Does it show good governance does not equate to Indy Support?
My o my , WTF are folk , non Indy supporters, expecting next ?
WTF do they see I don’t, or is it WTF are they not seeing?
Gutted.
WM does not work for Scotland.
Sheesh. Is ther ANY good news for the prospect of independence in this poll? Anthing?
Why would anyone not vote SNP ? They mitigate for so many factors that others in the UK have to endure. Its selfish,but thats people.
Cake and eating it springs to mind.
Very interesting indeed but not unexpected
People are not always predicatable
And this confusing heap of figures is precisely why I think Nicola was right to say we need Brexit sorted (either way, but sorted) before we have indyref 2.
‘The three bodies problem’ is too difficult for anyone who is undecided.
If we are dragged out of the EU by Brexit that insult will take a little while to register with those who have hoped it would never happen.
That will put us into a different world. It may be an awful mess. Many indications are that it will be. It will focus minds.
If it all goes swimmingly (Hmm… Ha, Ha…) and life goes on why not vote Yes In Indyref2….the sky will not fall in.
Who knows what we’ll feel like on November 1st ? and again a month later…..
Good point made about those who are prepared to use their vote to force remain on England and Wales knowing that England and Wales voted for leave.
I still think the SNP should not be trying to stop brexit
Sadly those pushing the GRA think both that they are doing a good thing, like equal marriage and that there will be NO downsides or that the lack of downsides will mean it will all be forgotten.
Except half are women who are pretty exercised about it and getting more so, quite rightly and lots of us get caught short whilst out and about and so are likely to face finding members of the opposite sex in the toilet or feel like we are in the wrong place and imposing ourselves.
I know several Yes/SNP supporting women and all are very exercised about this and thinking seriuosly of voting for someone else and even hoping the Wings party will come and save them from spoiling their ballot papers.
Having not voted for our SNP MSP last time since she was one of those who helped kill Margot’s Assisted Dying Bill. I shall be watching VERY closely how she votes on this issue as well. Maybe the WEP will stand and I can happliy vote for them, making the women in my family pleased.
The SNP should be aware that we have other places to put our votes or we can just spoil our papers and write on them why. The candidates have to read those at the count so make them hit home.
Scotland in Union used remain or leave the UK in their recent poll instead of Yes/No to independence. Of course the term leave is inaccurate and misleading as it implies there is a UK left to continue. If either Scotland of England terminate the Union then there is no UK left. It is gone. The UK is a bipartite Union. It’s like a marriage if one party gets a divorce then there is no marriage left to continue.
The diddy that is Pamela Nash Chief Executive of Scotland in Union is now saying that using the terms yes/no are rigging an independence referendum. So she may be arguing for a change in the question for Indyref2 but her argument also says that the result of indyref1 was rigged and therefore the result was invalid. She is not the brightest is Pamela.
Of course it is Pamela (Scotland in Union) that is trying to rig Indyref2. As usual it is the lying cheating Britnats up to dirty tricks.
With only using 1000 odd voters the chance of getting any representative choice, must be about 100 to one.
Do I detect the dreaded curse of mitigation hell at work again?
One might suppose that those who have transferred their allegiance from parties that are nominally BritNat are still on a journey, and need some further encouragement to go the “whole hog” to committing to full independence, but how is it even faintly possible that more than a third (OK, all of 20 individuals in this poll) of long-time SNP voters intend to vote No in the eventual IR2? In the present circumstances? Seriously?
No wonder we keep getting the odd letter in the papers from self-declared SNP members urging delay of IR2 for-ever-and-a-day. If this poll hasn’t been fatally compromised somehow by mischief-making liars, it would seem that the party has a serious motivation issue among its core faithful.
Which may possibly be just one unfortunate consequence of this rather passive current policy of “wait-and-see”. But leaves one wondering: which is chicken and which is egg?
The old Buckaroo principle strikes again. I sometimes wonder how serious some Independence supporters really are. I am not voting SNP because of this that and the other. Sick of reading self indulgent crap on Wings.
For goodness sake get a grip. Do you want a better independent country or just gripe about things that the Scotgov may or may not have done to annoy you. The fall in numbers of people who voted SNP in 2017 is still being used by the Britnats to say there is no demand for independence. Johnson only recently stated that in the HofCommons.
If the Britnats get control of Holyrood then you really will have plenty to moan about.
The insane and absolutely outrageous self select gender ID will come back to haunt the SNP.
With policies like this they have taken their eyes off the ball and are pandering to perverted self interest from a minuscule group.
The reality of allowing let us say big muscled men with an interest in dressing as a woman and then self identifying himself as a woman must fill many of our female compatriots with dread. It cannot be an isolated thought for many to be absolutely aghast at the prospect of such individuals sharing their female toilets. And is this what you would expect your teenage daughter or younger to be exposed to. I think not!
But this is the focus of our great SNP leadership. A small coterie adrift from cabinet colleagues and the wider public. It cannot last and it will not last. If the loony leadership does not get a grip the SNP will split.
Folks want good governance not loony policies imposed by a few.
The Labour Party destroyed itself in Scotland. Nicola’s small band has not yet created a split simply because most members and supporters coalesce on the objective of independence. But independence Lite and loony policies like patchwork car parking tax, this self ID nonsense, the abandoned named person legislation found illegal by the Supreme Court, the failure to address the unfair Council tax, are all setting the scene for failure.
And meanwhile under the hand of the most right wing of Westminster governments ever, many of the major UK supermarket chains are in the days prior to Brexit going into over drive to obliterate Scottish branding in favour of British branding with the Union Jack
Destroy a brand, especially a highly respected one and it isn’t long before the producers and their workforce start to suffer. One only need think of Scotch whisky being branded with the Union Jack, or the US being allowed through currently ongoing trade negotiations to brand their own whisky as Scotch and one realises how an Uber successful global product could go into decline.
Even more so when Trump has just announce a 25% importation tax on imported Scotch. But where is the Scottish Parliament on this, or they Westminster MPs.
The Scottish Parliament is being under mined by an increasingl out of touch leadership. No plan B, not even to be allowed to be discussed at conferences, whilst our industries potentially burn.
Maybe, like the supermarkets the SNP leadership should remove their Scottish saltire branding and replace it with a union jack.
As an SNP supporter of many many years I never ever thought I would be expressing these comments about a party who has done so much, brought us so far, and is now delivering like this.
So call to Nicola. Engage with your colleagues. Look at a plan B.as Most other sensible people do. Get behind sound policies that folk want and understand. The time fort Independence is now and you must take the movement with you. All of us, members and supporters of independence want you to succeed. And so as the head of the premier party do in Scotland for independence please do not let us down.
As for self ID, steer well clear my dear, well well clear.
William, if the poll had shown that everything was sweetness & light, would you still be here carping?
Denial is the first stage, move on mate.
The question asked here is “did you ever vote for a party other than the SNP?”
I would have to answer “yes” to that – I’ve been voting since October 1974, a couple of times outwith Scotland. I’ve voted Labour, Green, SSP, and various “others”, depending on the circumstances. I once voted for an independent in my Holyrood constituency, so I can’t even say I always voted SNP for that.
But I haven’t changed my mind “within the last 5 years“. (I first voted for an SNP candidate in about 1982, and I’ve mostly voted for them since.)
[My emphases]
The conclusion that people might change their minds again (or even for the first time) is obviously valid, as is the reminder to the SNP not to take people for granted, but unless there was another question which makes it clear that “prior to the 2014 independence referendum” means immediately prior and voting means habitually doing so, I’m not convinced a time-scale for mind change can be deduced from the data.
Interesting that Q6 & Q8b reveals that the strongest support for Independence comes from the group who voted to leave the EU.
And as I can’t be the only Euroskeptic who voted remain it would be interesting to find out what percentage of SNP voters did likewise.
I wonder if that is what The Rev is going to reveal tomorrow?
I would reckon it to be about a third of those who have voted SNP for more than twenty years and a lesser but not inconsiderable percentage of the Johnny come latelys.
I am becoming extremely concerned. A huge democratic wrong may be about to committed. That is if we can place any credence on the reports on what PM Johnson may be about to agree.
The good people of Northern Ireland voted by 54% to Remain. With the support of the 27 EU countries and especially the Republic of Ireland they are in a position where they retain an Irish passport and all the privileges of EU citizenship which go with it. They will be able to travel freely throughout the EU, enjoy the right to live and work throughout the EU. Whilst exercising this right they will be able to take advantage of cover by all the EU medical systems. There will also be no block against them taking their non EU spouses and families with them.
They will have no border with the Republic and therefore with the whole of the EU. Their businesses will be able to trade freely within the EU, perhaps via the Republic but anyway freely.
Compare the Northern Irish situation with that of the country which voted by 62% to Remain. Because Scotland does not enjoy international protection, its larger neighbour with whom it is an equal party in a treaty of union, imposes that it gets nothing, zero, nada. The dictat of the larger neighbour is that Scotland should go quietly along with the orders of their leader(s) in compliance with a dubious peoples vote which was resoundingly rejected by the Scots.
Something is seriously wrong here, there is a clear democratic deficit. I am starting to feel rage, who else does, where is the shouting from the rooftops.
I recall Ian Blackford’s words. Scotland will not be dragged out of the EU against its will.
I’m waiting.
Its hardly earth shattering news that a substantial body of ex labour voters now vote SNP. You can read them on Wings always going on about not letting the SNP morph into Labour and take us for granted. Once bitten twice shy.
The SNP want independence. Labour wants to keep Scotland being force fed its daily diet of subservience, subjugation and humiliation.
Vote SNP/Yes then after independence vote the raving looney Scottish party if that party meets your needs or any other party.
“The candidates have to read those at the count”
No they don’t, writing stuff on your spoilt paper serves no purpose aside from it getting on the pile of spoilt papers and making you feel clever.
The candadates or their agents can check they agree that papers are spoilt but there’s no compulsion to read anything.
Moonlight@4.53pm
“Something is seriously wrong here, there is a clear democratic deficit.”
There always has been. Brexit just shines a great big spotlight on it. It’s a pity more people didn’t see it back in 2014.
The SNP has become a party of devolved government within the UK, a comfortable gravy train for politicians with somewhat limited political horizons but rather broad identitarian agendas. There are precedents for the former, the latter is however a sickness of the self-centred times.
Alternatives are required that prioritize national independence and cultural renewal and are unashamedly ‘nationalist’ in outlook.
Scottish nationalism should get tough, the current toothless tiger act impresses only devoted admirers.
Well said Moonlight @ 4.53.
“The only explanation that makes any sense”
Others make sense too, that people have different values and different priorities. The analysis is too personally subjective.
“they don’t believe it should be forced on the people of England and Wales, who voted Leave”
Which proves absolutely the subjectivity; some / many people dont see it that way at all, but do see it as doing the right thing for the UK as a whole, and don’t forget, 62% of Scotland voted for the UK to remain in the EU, so why expect people to suddenly change our minds?
You can’t interpret data with your own eyes, you have to empathise.
@William Purves “With only using 1000 odd voters the chance of getting any representative choice, must be about 100 to one”
No.
As long as the poll is randomly made and / or weighted, 1000 and odd gives a 95% confidence that the results are within 3%. So that’s 19 out of 20, NOT 100 to 1!
Abulhaq says:
“…prioritize national independence and cultural renewal and are unashamedly ‘nationalist’ in outlook”
Cue Cubby with his anti “Blut und Boden” tirade.
Just because some German nutcases went seriously OTT 3/4 of a century ago does not mean everyone, everywhere and for all time must shamefully repress all temptation to celebrate their cultural identity.
The one thing I have learned over the years is to vote for a party knowing what they actually stand for. Not what you think they stand for or what their propagandists tell you they stand for.
That is why I would have no qualms whatsoever ditching a party if they do not deliver. Parties change depending on who is in charge and who decides the strategy.
Actions speak louder than words.
Aye, many in the SNP grassroots passionately believe and hunger for independence and/or the exercising of Scottish sovereignty. I know, I’ve met some of them.
But, for too many SNP professional politicians, it would be the icing on the cake but, something they can live without quite comfortably. However, retaining the power, retaining their seat and promoting their favourite agenda under devolution takes precedence.
They would like independence as long as they don’t have to risk their job or comfortable lifestyle to achieve it.
As for the electorate, even the most ardent of unionists will vote for the SNP as the most competent administrators of the Scotland region colony, safe in the knowledge that voting SNP NEVER means a vote for independence under Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership.
@ Legerwood says:
12 October, 2019 at 4:59 pm
There seems to be a great deal of misinformation being peddled about the Gender Recognition Act (GRA)and the proposed reforms.
Yes by this women Ms Somerville by cherry picking who to consult with and who not too.
Moonlight
Spot on. Again and again the SNP have vowed they won’t allow Scotland to be dragged out of the EU against our will.
This will be the key test of the SNP as the defenders of Scottish sovereignty.
If they surrender on this, I see no reason to trust them about delivering and winning an indyref.
On the other hand, if they do win that fight to keep Scotland in the EU by asserting Scotland’s sovereignty, I would gladly eat my words regarding my criticisms of them.
We are told by Nicola Sturgeon independence has to be achieved the “legal” way.
A court has never been asked what are the legal ways Scotland can obtain independence / dissolve the Union.
Only a court can decide what is legal. Not Nicola Sturgeon, not Boris Johnson, not the UK Govt nor the Scottish Govt.
A nation is held to ransom by Nicola Sturgeon’s opinion.
Moonlight your right, every SNP MP and MSP should be patriotic push for Independence that’s what they were voted in for a wee bit more fighting spirit at least, if Ireland can get it so can Scotland, they’re will be a lot of disillusioned and disappointed SNP voters if we don’t get the same as Ireland, if it happens.
Moonlight.
There needs to be a very visible campaign to shame those in Scotland who work against democracy.
Take a couple of examples – Jenny Marra – a pseudo fascist who actively discriminates against Scotland and the electorate.
Jamie Stone – Boris and Nigel’s man in Caithness.
I am 53, every single election since I was old enough to vote (18) has been for the SNP and that includes even by elections, sadly I am now at the stage of thinking I should not bother any more.
I went to see Ms Sturgeon in Dundee not long after she became leader and thought to myself she was Ok’ish but would hopefully grow to become as good a leader as I though Mr Salmond was, sadly I have been disappointed and I honestly do not know how I will vote at the next election. I know for sure I will not vote for any of the current parties but whether I will spoil or vote for the SNP I don’t know. I never thought I would ever say that as Independence is all I have ever wanted but now, with the way things are going I am losing heart in it ever coming to be, the current leadership are, to my mind, letting the side down badly.
‘If the Britnats get control of Holyrood then you really will have plenty to moan about’.
yes we really will have which is why we desperately need to ensure this doesn’t happen, if it does it won’t be because some of us have been rightly critical of the governments handling of the Independence cause, never will we be in a better position than we have been for the past 3 yrs and yet here we are still arguing about the timing, I’m sick of hearing folk say we haven’t yet left the EU so it’s right to wait, what if Brexit is stopped by whatever means, it could happen, will all those who have come on board simply for that reason stay on board once the threat has been removed, won’t many instead just be so relieved that’s it’s over with that the very thought of another Indyref will be too much to face, and that’s not taking into account how feelings towards Scotland will emerge seeing as no party has fought harder to stop Brexit than the SNP, I’m sure the people of England will feel rightly aggrieved that Scotland was so unaccepting of what the people of England and Wales voted for, This can go both ways, can we be sure the SNP will still have a majority in 2021? they might well clean up in a snap election being held soon, I’m not convinced they will be as successful in 2021. yes we must vote for them in the snap election, what they do after that will determine the outcome in 2021, SNP can’t just keep taking our voted for granted, yes they are by far the best party for Scotland that we have right now but I’ve always believed any government good or bad should always have a good opposition to keep them in line, we don’t at present have this but I live in hope this will change soon, there is also the case that 2020 could turn things completely upside down for the whole movement depending on the outcome of a certain case, time will tell but nothing changes the fact that the optimum time for moving on Indy is diminishing and much faster than many realise, I will however happily eat my words if our FM has a plan and we all get a pleasant surprise before the year is out. one last point, while we dither the opposition is busy putting things in place, just a thought.
Mr Blimp@5.37pm
If you are having an argument with someone please don’t try and drag me into it. I have never said anything you posted in your words “Just……………..identity.”
So do me a favour and just go away.
Hood @ 18:50,
Doesn’t it occur to you that whatever your reservations about the leadership may be, if you don’t get off your sorry arse and vote SNP when the time comes, it’s YOU that will assuredly be “letting the side down”?
I know, allegiance has to be earned, no question, but do you really want a repetition of 2017?
(Of course, disengagement is a definite strategy of some…)
cynicalHighlander says:
12 October, 2019 at 5:47 pm
@ Legerwood says:
12 October, 2019 at 4:59 pm
There seems to be a great deal of misinformation being peddled about the Gender Recognition Act (GRA)and the proposed reforms.
Yes by this women Ms Somerville by cherry picking who to consult with and who not too.
……….
I would suggest that you go back and read my post again and the links therein but the post has been removed. I wonder why? It was factual.
How is your cynicism these days?
I probably believe the SNP have had similar private polls done, with similar results. I think the problem lies in that they dont know what to do about it.
Independence is a binary subject effectively which imposes massive change in itself. This scares people at a basic level.
Due to media intransigence, actually giving people that message is nigh impossible.
This is important ,because repitition is actually the mother of learnng. The Unionists have it in spades,whilst we have the oft dubious “National” and Wings.
Yet some want Wings to stop
We are facing unpleasant truths here ,but face them we must.
Dont blame the SNP or even indy supporters unhappy at SNP progress to date. Blame ourselves, beause we are the Indy movement, or at least part of it.
A new approach is needed. We can think of it, and of that, I am sure.
Robert J. Sutherland
I am at the point of saying F’ everything.
It is getting to the stage where I am thinking the SNP are confident that people like me will vote for them no matter what they do because I want Independence and they are the only viable route (which is true if indeed they do want it), they are taking me for granted, the carrot gets dangled and I chase it.
I work every day in a Fishing community and it sickens me that they (not all, but most) can be so stupid but maybe it is time they got shafted again. My work will dry up and I will have to close my doors but I am sick of living in a country of cowards.
Maybe I am just like the Fishermen, believing that if I just vote that way once more I will get what I dream of just to be shafted again.
@Legerwood “but the post has been removed. I wonder why?”
Maybe this: “Use paragraph breaks in long comments”
It was a bit unformatted (probably cut and paste). I posted an extract on a previous thread:
link to wingsoverscotland.com
Don’t worry…be happy. Six months of living in Scotland after Brexit will focus more than a few minds.
Cubby @ 16:40,
As the last regular SNP-ultra standing on here, can you enlighten us please, how is it that more than a third of self-declared longstanding SNP voters are intending to vote “No” in IR2, and almost another third “don’t know”?
Especially since at the next (UKGE) elections, the SNP is very likely to go “full Monty” on Indy and our right to IR2? Who or what is bonkers here? What gives?
I’m not trying to score a cheap point, I really would like to know. Is this poll completely crocked by “interference”, by a failure of leadership, by an acidentally large sample of morons, or what..?
Holding the whole thing together has been NS biggest achievement. She’s used a variety of tactics including sound government, vague promises, intolerance of dissent and silence on key issues when required.
Splinter groups have yet to form despite stark differences of opinion and that is a very creditable success for the SNP.
O/T, the trials of a Scottish rugby fan eh? Tomorrow we face one of three outcomes. Cursing our bad luck if the match is cancelled. Facing a humiliating defeat against a tier 2 nation. Being hated by all neutral fans if we knock out the plucky underdogs and tournament hosts!
Scotland is much different to Brighton or the gentrified boroughs of London like Islington and Shoreditch where left wing visceral identity politics dominates and is wrecking the Labour party. Scots are more down to earth; a bit socially conservative but to the left on economics and with a strong sense of social justice and concern for the poor. Alec Salmond appreciated this and factored into his politics. After the 2015 Westminster election Nicola Sturgeon became the Guardian’s poster girl and cheerleader for the liberal intelligentsia, you know the sort whose interest in Scotland is limited to their yearly trip to the Edinburgh Festival. Since then we’ve had a raft of symbolic and largely ineffective legislation under the guise of progressive politics (such a patronising and arrogant term) with the GRA attempt the worst example. And a million words on Brexit without realising England voted for it. Had last week’s march been flying the rainbow flag you can bet your last penny she’d have been leading it from the front.
@Legerwood
My cynicism comes and goes thanks for asking.
Bill Hume @ 18:31,
I beg to differ from this kind of lazy complacency. In fact it drives me crazy, not make me happy.
It’s far more likely that ordinary people will shrug their collective shoulders, say at least the damn thing is over and we need to “move on”, and just accept that “what’s done is done”. Accompanied by a BritNat chorus saying the same damn thing then turning to their latest mitigation whinge. People will heavily resent anyone who tries to resurrect the Brexit scandal as mischievous troublemakers and vote for somebody else – the aforementioned BritNat chorus.
It’s exactly this kind of blind follower passivity that is going to lose us the best chance we will ever have. But maybe you’ve got another century in you..?
On the subject of rainbows…
Are Zippy, George, and Bungle in Aberdeen this weekend?
Asking for a friend…
link to twitter.com
I’m sick to death hearing about this self identifying, I see it is up to 7 letters & a +, why not call them alphabety’s or the PDP & be done with it.
This is all just a fad from the lovies just like all the others that have gone before, don’t hear a lot from the “me toos” at the moment, give it a few months & it’ll be some other shit idea.
Perhaps I’ve lived too long, seen it all before.
Got to totally pick an issue with this:
“more than half of the SNP’s voters are people who have changed party in the last few years”
Asking people if they’ve ever voted for another party doesn’t say that at all. We could have voted 50 times for the SNP and only twice say for Labour to kick out the Tory John Currie, the most useless Thatcher butt-licker in existence. Two members ballots won, one on hanging, the other on abortion. What a waste of space. At least Wilson got in comepensation for the families of victims of silicosis and asbestosis with his winnings when Thatcher was unthatching.
It would need to have asked more liked “Did you regularly …” rather than “Did you ever …”.
And it also makes the basic mistake of treating voters like party members. Voters vote foe whoever we like, members (should) vote only for their party.
And Scotland has become more ane more tactical whereas it used to be loyal to individual and party. Which of course helps the launch of a list YES party.
Jock Tamson
You hit the nail squarely on the head with that post old chum.
@Dadsarmy,
You might want to read that again.
@Robert J. Sutherland 7:33pm
You’re not the last Robert because no matter what people try to sell as their *facts* or *suspicians* or *accusations* I ain’t buyin it and nor is any other SNP member I know of
There are always plenty of eh Internet members though
Actual real ones, not so much or they’d be telling us not squealing it out on the world wide web for all to read, or, or could some of them be fibbing to encourage us to doubt? surely people wouldn’t do such a dastardly thing would they, what possible reason could they have
For a party who never communicates I’m emailed regularly from the FM or from Europe reps and all the way down to my branch officers and even today at lunchtime my reps turned up at my door, so everything they know, I know
Yep, it’s all true the SNP doesn’t care that’s why I keep all my Christmas cards from Nicola just to remind me how much they don’t
@Legerwood
Is there some reason you’re posting in SGP that your comment was removed, without first seeing if anyone had replied to your posting on this forum – as I did – pointing out a likely reason it was removed?
Cross-forum posting causes confusion, as few in the second or further forum would have a clue what happened, or a possible reason. In fact WGD asked people NOT to wage this silly war on his blog.
I’m not saying you’re trying to create division, but there are several posters on SGP that are, and some of them are posting here too.
@ dadsarmy at 8.10
See also my post at 4.46.
@Bob Mack “You might want to read that again.”
Which part, exactly, and why?
Sorry, which part of what and where, exactly, and why?
@Dr Jim,
Ive got somd nice Xmas cards from Nicola as well. Its ok being kept informed as an SNP member but wbat about everybody else ? Theh dont get xmas cards from the SNP.
How do the SNP keep them informed about anything considering you yourself pointed out that the media surpress everything
positive.
Cubby says:
12 October, 2019 at 6:58 pm
“If you are having an argument with someone please don’t try and drag me into it…”
Gott im Himmel, I wasn’t arguing with anyone and it would be four words if one was to take into account the three in “commando book” German.
Not that it is relevant, seeing as the passage was in no way attributable to you … quite the opposite in point of fact.
@crazycat
I’ve just read it thanks, and I’m exactly the same – even down to voting for an Independent (pal of mine) who got 2 or 300 votes 🙂
At times I don’t think there was always an SNP candidate to even vote for.
@Dadsarmy,
The question is “Prior to the 2014 referendum did you vote for any other party other than the SNP?
It does not matter if they changed their minds at every election prior to 2014. They did not vote SNP at that time.
@Bob Mack
Yes, in which case “more than half of the SNP’s voters are people who have changed party in the last few years” is either a wrong, or a meaningless interpretation of it.
It’s even not specific enough, as for instance with STV for council elections yu can vote for ALL parties who put forward a candidate. Some would have done so even before the “vote till you boak” advice, to make preferences count.
People who answer questions in polls take them at face value, they’re not mind-readers.
Well, increased support has to come from somewhere.
The first trick is actually to create a larger pool of ‘undecideds’ who waver and wander. The real gem, is to be plucked from them, across the whole political spectrum and on a single issue – Indy.
Of approx 8% undecideds in 2014, YES garnered a mere 1.2%
The big swing was to NO. They won, because they swung undecideds, not because there were always more ‘Unionist party No voters than anyone else.
The figures may cause jitters on this SNP voting poll – but I’ll bet there is similar data deep in the other party’s polling. That would be interesting to see.
The Unionist ‘NO’ majority, used to come from ‘floating voters’ and from the pool of Undecideds across all parties. We are seeing ‘floaters’ moving toward the SNP, hopefully an increased pool of Undecideds because of that. We are also gaining votes for Yes from that Undecided pool. The poll here is good news, not bad news.
@Dadsarmy,
The percentage totals of those who stated they voted for other than SNP is not meaningless, It is what it is. It can only be wrong if the polling company made an error in ca!culating those percentages.
Just had my first ever look at the Scot goes Pop blog, as mentioned by somebody above, just to see what the fuss is about.
He doesn’t like the Rev very much does he?
Also, discovered an individual on there who I ‘shared forum space’ with some years ago. He appears as unjustifiably full of himself as he ever was and is making exactly the same overly simplistic predictions 6 odd years on. Seems to have found his spiritual home.
The SNP annual conference kicks off tomorrow and I’ll bet a pound to a penny that achieving independence isn’t even discussed. Sure, there’ll be noises about independence in general but no details of how they plan on it happening.
In fact looking at their agenda for the conference, it looks nothing more than a meeting of a village committee in a church hall.
It’s dreary dull, bland and totally uninspiring.
link to s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com
Catching up, I was struck by another issue @Moonlight & others are irate about.
There is no comparison between the politics of NI & that of Scotland. It is not an issue of how strongly NI is voicing its demands and the weakness of how Scots politicians do it.
It’s purely because, if NI (at least a great faction) does not get what it wants, it will quite literally kick fuck out of everyone. Any deal exists because of the threat of violence. Not how eloquent the politicians are, not how sharp their legal minds and courts are, or other ninja politics.
Perhaps there are many who never lived through the endless stream of international political leaders, traipsing over to try and get some peace; because that ‘knack’ of ‘kicking fuck out of people’ was not just at their front door, but also in everyone elses street after last orders. Also why the “UK government” is being told in no uncertain terms, to stop shit stirring again and why Scotland keeps hearing “Shut the fuck up Donny”
link to tinyurl.com
Hood @ 19:23,
Well, like you and a lot of other people I have my frustrations also (as some may have noticed!), but just giving up and letting your opponents win by default is the fastest way of getting shafted, 100% guaranteed! Any alternative offers better odds, no?
Besides, we should count our relative blessings. At least we aren’t being shot at and driven out of our homeland like the Kurds.
So just hang in there, please, and do your (electoral) duty like a soldier, through thick and thin. We can always make a judgement after we win through.
Fascinating findings, Rev. A few things stand out:
1) The intention to vote yes has hardened since 2014 among curent SNP support, irrespective of whether they were long-standing SNP voters, or converts.
2) You observed; “There’s also a perhaps unexpectedly large faction within the SNP support (15% in total) that used to vote Lib Dem or Tory, most of which is still firmly No.” Is this correct Rev?
By my reading of your stats the ex-Lib Dem component split 69/22 in favour of yes in 2014, and strengthened to 84/5 now.
The comparative figure for ex-Tory now SNP voters is a marginal yes majority of 28/26 in 2014 which had swung markedly in our favour to 39:11 for yes today.
In other words, these people are a net ASSET to the Indy movement, not a hindrance.
Very encouraging for InfyRef2, on all fronts. And even more encouraging if a similar shift has occurred among soft nos who vote for other parties.
@Legerwood
Interesting that your post was removed. It seemed a fairly anodyne SNP line, very much in the vein reiterated by Mhairi Hunter et al.
It may be that in presenting your facts you were unaware that the ‘extended consultation’ has to date been a rerun of the first ‘consultation’ with none of the Women’s groups who want to be heard even being given a timetable or platform for their points to be heard. Also the video of S-A Somerville basically saying ‘up yours, the GRA will be reformed no matter what’ at Dundee Pride kind of gives away the game.
It may also be that when you go on other sites badmouthing the site owner, saying you were never coming back because your pal ‘Petra’ was banned they might be a bit miffed.
Dr Jim @ 20:18,
They communicate with me as well, and I’m not even a member. But we here in Sutherland Towers were very happy to buy the raffle tickets they kindly sent anyway! =grin=
@Iain Mhor who wrote “There is no comparison between the politics of NI & that of Scotland”.
Apart from a shared desire to be independent of England in about 50% of each population, that is. Otherwise I’d agree with what you said.
Here are some further insights into what went on before NI, ROI and GB came anywhere near discussing the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, the source of Westminster’s current woes!
For anyone who’s interested here are episodes 4 and 5 of the BBC Spotlight programme on the Hidden History of the Troubles together with my comments.
link to eurofree3.wordpress.com
I first voted, just after my 18th birthday, in the 1970 GE. I voted Tory, after seeing the mess Labour had made in the previous few years. No point in voting Liberal.
There was no SNP candidate standing in my constituency. I had been an SNP supporter from the time Winnie won the by-election in 1967.
In the next council elections, I voted Labour. There was no SNP candidate in my ward.
The next vote that came along was the first 1974 GE. I was able to vote SNP. I have voted SNP at every GE since.
In local elections, I have voted Labour, Lib-Dem and, latterly, consistently SNP. The Labour and Lib-Dem votes were because the candidates were effective, approachable, councillors.
I have voted SNP/SNP in every Holyrood election. I was an SNP member in the early 1990s but let it lapse. I rejoined in October/November 2014. Still there.
According to that Q11 – “Prior to the 2014 independence referendum, did you ever vote for a party other than the SNP?” – am I a former Labour, Lib-Dem or Tory voter who has moved to the SNP, or am I an SNP voter who was frustrated by lack of SNP candidates but wanted to use my franchise?
@Iain mhor (8.57) –
For the past few weeks I’ve been listening to RTE1 instead of UK stations, and while there’s certainly a degree of schadenfreude in some of the commentary, the political analysis overall is different league to what we’ve become used to here. The trepidation is tangible.
The way the people of Ireland have been treated over the past three years is utterly disgraceful, but we’ll see faux outrage and crocodile tears from the usual suspects as and when the men in hoods get back about their business.
I’ve got a feeling me, Stu and Breeks won’t be on Nicola’s Christmas card list this year.
@ Bob Mack at 8.52
That isn’t the point I was making, and I don’t think it’s dadsarmy’s point either.
The point is that, given that we do not know when the change occurred, it cannot be reliably deduced that “more than half of the SNP’s voters are people who have changed party in the last few years. It follows logically that they might be prepared to do so again…” from those figures alone.
More information is required. That information may exist and not have been revealed here; the statement from the article ATL that I’ve quoted is not necessarily wrong, it just doesn’t follow from the data given.
@Briandoonthetoon,
Its an irrelevance whether there was a candidate or not. You voted how hou did for whatever reason.
COLIN ALEXANDER @ 9.39
How dare you sir
It is most definitely NOT December…
You cannot be sayin the – C – word ..
It’s just completely unacceptable in civilised company….
Robert J Sutherland@7.33pm
“As the last regular SNP ultra standing on here, can you please enlighten us…….”
1. You been watching the Last of The Mohicans.on repeat or something.
2. How many times do I have to post I am not an SNP member. A Scottish independence ultra yes.
3. Enlighten you – nae chance – away out to B&Q and buy a torch – I believe they open at 10.00am on a Sunday.
4. Gonnae no dae that – what – refer to me in your posts. Your wasting your time if you do. I told you I have a good memory.
@Crazycat,
Interpreting data is open to many routes. None is completely right of wfong. Stu may be right. You may be wrong.
It is noticeable that some are trying the old deflection game to soften the blow of thd figures.
I guess I trust Panelase as being professional in creating the survey questions as they are pretty experienced, whilst Stu has a good track record in calling the political meaning behind data.
You pay your money you take your chance eh?.
.
Hi Bob Mack at 9:49 pm
You typed,
“Its an irrelevance whether there was a candidate or not. You voted how hou did for whatever reason.”
I’m not sure what point you’re making. Care to expand a wee bit?
Mr Blimp@8.36pm
Sorry do not understand your posts. Way too cryptic for me.
RJS@7,37
Robert, Re IndyRef2 voting intentions, I think you may be mistaking the percentage (36) that longstanding SNP voters comprise of the TOTAL YES VOTE. Similarly, those same voters comprise 31 per cent of the TOTAL DON’T KNOWS,
The true (raw) figures for core SNP voters are above the percentages,
They are: yes – 395; no – 20; d/k 15.
92% yes; 5% no; 3%. Rock solid. Have no fear.
@Briandoonthetoon,
You voted whether or not there was a candidate of your personal choice. You could have used your franchise to support another party whether or not you had been an SNP member on and off your whole life. Thats the point. They were not exclusive SNP voters. Prior to 2014 did you vote for another party?
There is a section for those who only ever voted SNP.
Heart of Galloway @ 22:09,
Thank you, I am much obliged for putting me right about that. And I am suitably relieved to be so corrected.
Cubby @ 21:57,
See the above response to my enquiry for how it’s properly done between comrades. If you are even an independence supporter at all – and I’m really beginning to wonder with this bitter-and-twisted hateful attitude of yours – you have a funny way of convincing people that you have something worthwhile to offer. In fact if you’re achieving anything at all besides merely polluting the discourse, you’re achieving the very reverse.
(But it is something of a relief to know you’re not a member of the SNP. That at least is a blessing.)
O/T
Radio 5: Letter hand delivered to lawyer says:
American woman involved in accident which killed Harry Dunn did not have diplomatic immunity!
Liz g
Haha.
I better no mention the shops with Halloween and you know what decorations side by side.
No surprise about the many, many SNP voters who once voted for other parties. I was a ‘lifelong’ Labour voter, District Council, Regional Council and Westminster. Like many I saw, and was sickened by, Labour’s antics in Holyrood forcing me to turn to SNP.
But, what we have now, with Labour voters becoming SNP voters is the same problem that Labour fac in every General Election – getting the vote out. Labour has a well-oiled machine which goes to old people’s homes and ‘helps’ the geriatric inmates fill out their postal votes with a Labour cross on it, whether they’re aware of it or not! But rainy election days were the enemy for them, and now for SNP. Committed (they should be lol!) Tory voters drive to the polling station in their jags to vote, but Former Labour voting SNP voters who have just finished a 12hr shift and picked the kids up and are on their way home on the bus are somewhat LESS likely to pop in and make their mark if it’s tipping it down with rain, aren’t they? The kids are tired and hungry and don’t fancy breaking the journey and waiting for yet another bus in the rain just so mum can vote SNP!
This is why the EXACT dates of elections are crucial not JUST for the polling, but the weather too. Elections must be notified, I think, six weeks in advance. The ideal time to have SNP voters in the house is sometime between mid August and mid November (ie the rainy season) Voting can’t happen until the English kids are back at school so that narrows it to mid Sept to mid Nov (excluding school holidays) Thus low turnouts for certain groups like SNP, followed by Labour, Greens, LibDems and Tories.
Add to all this the ‘gamed system’ of Holyrood as set up by Blair then we can depend on SNP and other Indy parties to struggle to govern for ever more…
It’s becoming a disaster. Today the National reported that just a third of SNP westminster candidates are women – is that any surprise when their policies are driving women away in their droves?
Nicola Sturgeon embarked on a social revolution to turn Scotland into the wokest nation on earth and it’s starting to fall apart at the seams.
The named person scheme has been a disaster, declared illegal by the courts.
The desperately needed offensive behaviour at football act was incompetent law and got revoked.
Proposed changes to the gender recognition act with potential risks to women and girls have provoked fury and many resignations of grassroots members.
The project to to become the first country in the world to introduce reverse vending machine recycling for alluminium, plastic and glass has been kicked into the long grass because no-one can work out how it’ll work in practice and there are fears it will put small retailers out of business. (hint to scotgov: there may be good reasons why no other nation on earth has introduced this…)
The social inclusion experiment to educate children with learning disabilities in mainstream schools has failed many children due to lack of financial support and not enough specialist teachers. They are failing to get it right for every child.
And now we discover that the party is being taken over by a bunch of immature narcissists whose only interest is the promotion of queer ideology.
This is what happens when you push through policies for ideological reasons without thinking through how they will work in practice or impact ordinary people and businesses.
Nicola Sturgeon has blown it, it’s time she went. We need a responsible caretaker in charge who will have a focus on independence and who won’t scare off the electorate with all this radical (and ego-driven) social reform.
@ ClanDonald
Do you have a reference for your assertion that reverse-vending machines will not be introduced? I’ve just searched, and nothing came up to suggest that the plan is not going ahead. Some have already been installed (by choice, so the retailer has made the decision, rather than government).
Reverse vending machines for plastic, glass and aluminium are common in France, in fact even the local Spar along the road has one.
I don’t know how much they’re used though or whatever but they are in use.
Hi Bob Mack.
All I can say is that I am an instinctive SNP supporter/voter, who will vote SNP at any local election or GE. With the new scenario opened up by WOS, and having read up on a lot of the research into voting in the regional vote, I would probably lend my regional vote to another pro-indy party in a forthcoming Holyrood election.
But, I must type, I am not liable to chop and change my support for the SNP in the next 5 years or so, unless they pursue something monumentally stupid.
Clandonald @ 11.04
Utter drivel. Time to crawl back under your unionist stone.
“Reverse vending machines for plastic, glass and aluminium are common in France”
They’re not all three at once. And they tend to be just drinks containers not everything, like coffee jars, jam/mustard jars etc.
And have they thought out the consequences of adding 20p deposit to every single glass, plastic and aluminium container in a pensioner’s shopping basket?
It needs lots more refining before it’s ready to mainstream. Hence they’ve announced they’re postponing it.
PS I’m not a unionist, Elmac, are you oblivious to the number of restless and unhappy members of the SNP? The rev is correct, there are serious divisions in the party and only set to get worse when Salmond’s case comes to court, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
@crazycat – I didn’t say they wouldn’t be introduced, just kicked down the road. They need to do lots more consultation. Small retailers are very unhappy, the costs of buying these large machines is massive, (£20/30k) they take up lots of shelf space and they cost a lot to administer. Some claim it may put them out of business.
Robert J Sutherland@
Gonnae no dae that.
Some people just cannot help themselves. One minute I am an ultra SNP last man standing next minute I’m not an independence supporter. Do you actually read what you post. I certainly have no interest in convincing you of anything. B&Q have a good range of torches – off you go then.
Your post is exactly why I want nothing to do with you. You only posted a reference to me so you could splurge out your insults. Well done – now pissof and stop referring to me. What a load of patronising guff – comrades – are you in momentum or something.
@Ben madigan
I was perhaps a bit brutal and simplistic for brevity.
Thanks for the link anyway.
@ ClanDonald
The 20p deposit only adds to a pensioner’s* expense the first time the item is purchased; thereafter, providing the container is recycled, the 20p will be retrieved and can be used again for the next purchase. If it’s a flat rate, the second purchase doesn’t even need to be the same product.
People who imply that everything will be 20p dearer, each time, remind me of those who think that putting the clocks forward increases the number of hours of daylight, rather than just re-labelling the moment at which the sun is at its zenith.
*or anyone else’s
RJS@10.47
Pas de tout, comrade.
Off to conference the morra. It will definitely benefit the occasion that so many of those attending will have marched in Edinburgh only eight days ago.
The anticipation and belief of that great day was palpable. No doubt the pressure for action will be smouldering under the surface in the conference hall and its ante-chambers.
The agenda is worthy but anodyne. I suspect and hope Nicola Sturgeon!s speech on Tuesday will be anything but.
The troops of the wider yes movement have campaigned for hard, bitter months and years to get to this critical point.
And the marches to many have been a welcome chance to step away from local campaigning.
Joining with thousands of like-minded souls to agitate for has been a real and regular morale booster.
The discipline in the ranks has been remarkable and it is founded on a conditional trust that the SNP leadership will be true to their word and hold IndyRef between next April and September.
Echoes indeed of the Declaration of Arbroath!
*agitate for IndyRef2. My bad!
OT
This is what it’s all about really. From elsewhere:
“If Scotland would like independence, I would like it.”
That if there’s enough will be a real tipping point, as for many people they’d go with the flow. That tipping point I reckon could be anywhere up to 20% wide. People want to be on the winning side.
It does need this to be pushed, only 11 odd thousand to go to target, and the SNP conference would be a good time to achieve it. Sign the pledge! [1]
link to yes.scot
[1] No not that one, silly.
That’s me in the background there, the one with the saltire:
link to twitter.com
@ Clandonald
I doubt it’s worth the effort but here is a response to the individual paras in your 11.04 post:
1. Completely without foundation. The ratio of SNP female candidates for Westminster far exceeds those for English constituencies. Politics has always been a male dominated preserve and the progress being made in Scotland to redress the balance by attracting more females of the right calibre is a credit to the SNP.
2. No facts to support this claim. Scotland is not falling apart at the seams. The truth is the opposite. The international status of Scotland has risen under the SNP who have been innovative and have safeguarded the country from the worst of vicious Westminster policies.
3. The named person scheme was not a disaster. It was a commendable effort to protect the vulnerable but was seized on by unionists as a stick to beat the SNP with. They could have participated in improving the legislation but caring for the less fortunate has never been their thing.
4. As you say, the OBFA was badly needed legislation. It was disgracefully sabotaged in Holyrood to score points against the SNP rather than assisting in improving the legislation. Again unionist political point scoring trumped the needs of the population.
5. Agreed.
6. I have personally seen this operating perfectly well in New South Wales in Oz. The suggestion that it would put any retailers out of business is preposterous. It is more likely to attract business for small, conveniently sited, retailers.
7. Inclusion of children with learning difficulties in mainstream education has not failed. It may not have been a roaring success but it has improved the life of many kids who would otherwise have been left in society’s dustbin. Given the constraints of an ever declining budget the SNP government have shown commendable resolve in trying to improve the lot of disadvantaged children.
8. The reference to immature narcissists and queer ideology is just plain stupid.
9. You are criticising the SNP for trying to improve the Scottish economy and peoples lives in general. Many of their policies have been UK firsts which are being adopted by others in the UK. Not all have been a success but we are in a much better state now than we would have been under a blue/red/yellow Tory administration. A simple comparison of public services in Scotland compared with their equivalent elsewhere in the UK bears this out.
10. NS has blown nothing except the pretence that the unionist parties are competent in government. She gets on with the day job as well as pushing the indepence agenda.
The SNP are not perfect and I have my own gripes with them, but they are head and shoulders above what is on offer elsewhere in this rip off union. The point is fast approaching when they will have to deliver on our hopes for independence. If they fail they will suffer at the polls for this reason and not for the spurious drivel in your earlier post.
“The Union is on a knife edge, with support for an independent Scotland rising to 50% and a clear majority preferring Scottish independence in the EU to remaining in the UK after Brexit, according to a poll.”
(Panelbase for Times) Must have been a loaded question 🙂 🙂
———–
“Decision on #SCOvJAP now expected by 11am Japan / 3am UK. Hive of activity in stadium & glorious sunny day. Signs positive but hard to gauge full damage and potential safety risks at this stage. ”
Bugger, do I stay up or what?
“Loads of positive noises coming out of Yokohama now. Official confirmation coming in under 90 mins. #rwc2019”
Stay up.
link to twitter.com
Seems to be the most lively feed
So…you really..really need to shut the fuck up Stuart.
Is that you James?
LOL 🙂
Unconfirmed it’s on
link to twitter.com
Elmac @ 1.23
Agreed.. Well said..
………………..
Clan Donald @ 11.04
Nicola Sturgeon has not by any stretch of the imagination turned or attempted to turn Scotland into the most woke nation on earth.
How hysterical is that??
The Scottish Parliament,Parliament mind ye,are being lobbied to make changes to the GRA.
Much like the changes EVERY progressive democracy is being pressured to make!
Changes that on the face of it seem reasonable…
It’s the unintended consequences of doing so that are in dispute.
And
The reaction to pointing out these consequences that are the problem..
Do keep up!!
………………
Dadsarmy
I saw your post on the other thread about Mermaids and I am checking it out…
I will get back to you as soon as I get a reply.. 🙂
Game on definitely, fans are on as well. Zzzzzzz
link to rugbyworldcup.com
One_Scot, you’re no saying it right – you mean “fuct” 😉
.
Riddled with PTSD fae serving as a polis and no feeling well. Cannae sleep, so have Wingers keeping me company at 05.05am. Thank you Stuart and everyone on the Wings site by the way.
So with the rU.K. going to Hell and dragging Scotland with it, here is something I discovered which made my night….
Julie Andrews singing: Boris Johnson is a crunt … with the obnoxious Elton toad doing the goose step.
Effing hilarious.
Enjoy…
link to m.youtube.com
If there is a referendum, I’d count the votes from Scotland’s cattle, sheep, deer, pheasants and rabbits, if that’s what it took to get us over the line. UK “democracy” is such a rigged sham anyway, it wouldn’t even feel improper.
It’s not the point.
Nobody has yet been able to give me one good reason why Scotland should not underwrite any prospective election or referendum by securing a Constitutional Backstop recognised internationally that Scotland’s sovereign and democratically expressed will to remain in Europe will be respected as sacrosanct, and that any attempt to overrule that Sovereign edict will be deemed to be unlawful colonial subjugation.
Even if people balk at the idea of Independence by TKO rather than democratic knockout in the twelfth, in what way does taking care of Scotland’s Constitutional Sovereignty compromise any subsequent poll or referendum? IT DOESN’T.
Or, looking at it from the other direction, what unforgivable gross negligence does it represent if we don’t make a stand in defence of our Constitution, and yet expect it’s principles to remain relevant thereafter? If our own goddamned Scottish Government can’t bring itself to respect Scottish Sovereignty, what chance do we have securing International recognition?
With the SNP, or in spite of the SNP, Scotland MUST demand, and secure, a Constitutional Backstop which enshrines ultimate respect for the will of our sovereign people. Even if this is just agreed as a preamble and precaution, just like the Irish Backstop, the perfidy of Westminster makes such a binding Backstop for Scotland absolutely vital, and you will never persuade me otherwise.
Suppose we get nothing else right, or divide ourselves in bitter acrimony, MAKE SAFE SCOTLAND’S CONSTITUTIONAL BACKSTOP, and do it BEFORE we cross the Rubicon of Brexit. That is all I ask.
Breaking:
UK MSM absolutely outraged that Scotland rugby game goes ahead,despite their best efforts. It’s all the SNP’s fault!
So, at the SNP conference, it would be nice if NS stated clearly and categorically that she WILL definitely call a referendum on independence next year.
I don’t want to be told she will ‘ask permission’, I don’t want to hear she ‘would like to see’ a referendum, I don’t want any of tha flufft.
She MUST state without any equivocation that she WILL call indyref next year, prior to the end of the first Scots parliamentary term in 2020, with a view to it being held shortly thereafter.
Anything less is just bullish*t, and political spin.
We cannot just sit back, and wait forever and ever, hoping that somehow magically polls will dramatically turn. The polls are at 50% now. Indyref will push that higher. Doing nothing, will not.
And just for the record, the Scotgov/SNP already have at least 4 democratic mandates to hold indyref. They do not need another. I mean how many mandates do they need? 5, 6, 10?
Maybe all they really need is a backbone.
Breeks at 0634am
Toally agree. How can expect others, especially Westminster, to respect our constitution in Scotland, if we do not stand up and fight for it during brexit.
What is more important. When to have an IndyRef? Or winning. Winning it. If it means waiting a couple of years fir full support. So be it. It has taken nearly 100 years. 1928 till 2019. The changes in Scotland since 2000 Devolution are amazing. Especially under the SNP Gov. They will know the time to go for another IndyRef. When it can be won.
The argument to have it in 2020 because in 2021 Holyrood ekdctions tgere will not be a majority for it are superficial. What’s the point of having an IndyRef, jumping the gun. Or worse losing it. Too many campaigns going on. Then a year later people will not vote to support it. That is the illogical suggestion. It is better to wait until they do and win it decisively. Support always growing demographically. The elderly anti keeling over. Off the electoral roll.
Campaign to change the voting system. D’Hond’t /STV is a joke. Brought in illegally to favour unionists. Not for consensus but for control. Unionist control of everything. Mucking up the economy.
First preference SNP votes go in the bin. Masses. To let 3rd rare losers in. Everyone’s second choice wins. Their vote is split, unknowingly. Voters do not understand the system. Neither does anyone else. They can’t vote to get troughers out. They stay for years. The most unpopular candidate and voters can’t get them out. The loser wins. Although Nicola and Co wipe the floor with them. In Holyrood and out.
Some great meeting and events already. The YES folk are coming to town. Make the best of it. Welcome everyone. Everyone is welcome. Not the prophet of doom but the enlightened/ment.
Great Conference coming up. The success aligning for an IndyRef. Serious. Anyone can join. Campaign, donate and join in and be a part in the most electoral success in political history. Get rid of Johnston and the rest of them. They are holding Scotland back. If Scotland gets better off, So does the rest of the UK.
Breeks@6.34am
I put this to you before but received no response. So with respect I’ll put it to you again.
You have never laid out how some kind of Scottish constitutional backstop would be achieved, and if achieved, honoured.
If through the courts, would that be the CoS first, then the Supreme Court, then the ECJ?
Leaving the EU still has not happened. How would that have played out in the minds of the ECJ judges when the UK remains the member state?
Or the fact that the EU Ref question never asked whether people believed Scotland should remain in the EU?
Rather, the question concerned the fate of the existing member state, the UK.
It may well be that the Scottish petitioners (this all theoretical because you should be explaining this) would be able to overcome those arguments by invoking the UN charter regarding the rights of nations to self determination and Scotland’s equal kingdom status in the Treaty of Union.
But I don’t know. And neither, I suspect, do you.
Should such a case be lost – there would a legal impediment to independence.
If won, it would mean a legal decision declaring that Scotland, in the words of Ian Blackford, should not be dragged out of the EU against our will.
Then the Boris Johnson junta would be entrusted with complying with that decision. “Okay Scotland, off you pop, with your resources and riches. Thanks for Trident and shut the door behind you.”
Well, good luck with that.
Placing the power over Scotland’s future in the hands of three courts – potentially – is a dangerous road to go down.
Rather, it the power of the people through their expressed sovereign will which must always prevail, as I believe it will when the people of Scotland say yes to Indy next year.
So I repeat, I am interested in how this constitutional backstop will be achieved and honoured.
Heart of Galloway @ 8-10
Yes I agree with your position, better as a vote of the people as opposed to a legal option.
What Sturgeon said of couse was “legal and legitimate”. So that the international community would accept the result. Well, exactly.
But commentators interpret those words as they want. And add a good few she didn’t say, like “wildcat” and, errr, others like “permission”.
Silly commentators.
What do you call a load of commentators?
A gaggle of confusion!
@Breeks 6:34am
The subtle problem you have here (which afflicts a lot of debate here) is that Scotland hasn’t voted that Scotland should remain in the EU. Strictly speaking, the 62% voted for the -UK- to remain in the EU
This may seem like a pointlessly technical point to you, but when you and others are talking about establishing international agreements on the basis of a result from what is strictly just a counting zone in the UK-wide referendum, technicalities are what matter. If the UK comes out of the EU prior to independence, Scotland is out too – that is the way it was always going to be and to be fair to Nicola, it could have been no other way (unless she’d actually called and won indyref2)
dadsarmy Actually including Don’t Knows only 45% of Scots want an Independent Scotland in the EU in that new Panelbase poll
we have had 300 years of the union and frankly it hasn’t all been bad for Scotland even though of course we know independence would be better for us. For those approx 50% who are yet to be converted to the 95% who should want independence (ie, would germany want to be ruled by france? ) then we should realise it is a drip drip until the light dawns. But no it doesn’t surprise me in the slightest that it takes time to convert people who see it akin to breaking up a marriage….you know its a serious decision etc etc
The british state is collapsing..our time is coming soon, be patint…yes I know there are people who say now now now, but ‘a material change in circumstances’ has not yet happened and folks here seem to forget that
Scotland v Japan ITS ON
If I had a Plan B and had such a broad church of voters I would certainly be playing my cards close to my chest. I personally believe there is a Plan B and it will take everyone by surprise which is as it should be when dealing with the morons in charge at Westminster. Giving away details now only provides the opportunity to stymie the plan.
The Andrew Marr show from the SNP conference in Aberdeen
Three women reviewing the papers. Nothing wrong with that except they are all bloody Britnats.
The really annoying deputy political editor from the Daily hate Mail, the BBCs Sarah Smith (I hate the SNP vote Labour) and the Guardian.
Heart of Galloway / Breeks
“Or the fact that the EU Ref question never asked whether people believed Scotland should remain in the EU?”
Under the EU Lisbon Treaty, Article 50 required to be triggered according to the constitutional law of the member state. The EU accept that it has.
The basis of the legal argument would be that:
1. The people of Scotland remain sovereign for Scotland within the Union. They usually delegate decision making to the Scottish and UK Parliaments.
2. Parliamentary sovereignty by (Kingdom of England) Crown in Parliament is an English law (applied to the Union). So applies to England and Wales under English law. “And there has never been a more important moment to recommit ourselves to the guiding principle of the claim of right that the people, the Scottish people, are sovereign.”, said Nicola Sturgeon.
3. However, UK Parliament only exercises sovereign powers for Scotland by representing the sovereign people of Scotland.
4. However, EU-Ref asked the people of Scotland directly if they wanted to stay in the EU. Scotland’s people voted Remain.
Thus:
5. Scotland’s people exercised direct sovereignty. That cannot then be overruled by UK Parliament MP’s whose sovereignty comes from the Crown of England.
6. That is because the Union is a Union of two Kingdoms. Scotland: where the people are sovereign. England: where the Monarch is sovereign.
Two Kingdoms EQUALLY sovereign from different sources in a Union.
That would have been the legal bases of opposing Scotland’s EU exit.
The problem is:
7. The UK Govt , UK State – and Nicola Sturgeon / SNP – all accepted the sovereignty of the (Kingdom of England) Crown in Parliament / UK parliamentary sovereignty. Thus, the Council of Europe accepted Article 50 was lawfully triggered, so the EU accepted it.
8. Constitutionally the SNP / FM are totally ingnoring Scotland’s constitutional law, as they are embedded in as administrators of the British Empire’s Scotland colony.
9. The SNP can be compared to a modern day version of Toom Tabard, accepting the overlordship of the Crown of England as sovereign OVER the people of Scotland (via UK Parliament) in the Union.
“There’s also a perhaps unexpectedly large faction within the SNP support (15% in total) that used to vote Lib Dem or Tory, most of which is still firmly No.“
I do not understand the “mostly” bit.
Looking at Q.11 there seems to be a clear majority intending to vote Yes, in every row. (Looking at numbers, not percentages – which confusingly relate to columns.)
The Andrew Marr Show
The paper review by a bunch of Britnats in Aberdeen at the SNP conference just reviewed a number of papers – everyone a Britnat paper. They did mention that a new poll says 50% for Scottish independence.
So there you are a review of the papers in Aberdeen at the SNP conference where they quote a poll saying 50% of Scots want independence and the only paper that supports Scottish independence The Sunday National newspaper is totally blanked. They don’t want you to know it exists. Propaganda by omission.
They also discussed the SNP car parking tax as they called it. Totally “forgetting” to point out to viewers that this tax has been live in England for a long time. SNP baaad – Propaganda by omission.
They clearly did not want anyone from the SNP on the panel who might actually point out their bias.
Some people in Scotland still think the BBC is objective and neutral.
Despite what this site and others have insisted I have been telling folk that no section 30 order has ever been asked for by the FM
Today you’ve heard it first hand as you’ve also heard that the people inventing this stuff are *talking nonsense* and are and have been *not telling the truth*
The words starred are the FMs this morning to Andrew Marr, not my words in case someone wishes to distort them into meaning something other than they do
Dr Jim
Despite “now is not the time” mate, let’s say you’re right.
Why not, at this most opportune of times?
Why not bend the knee to Bojo and do it now?
Everyone will know exactly where we stand then.
@ Heart of Galloway
Some fine points, and yes the final arbiters must always be the people. A pity that the OBFA wasn’t tested by referendum before it was repealed, with 60% + of the population in every demographic favouring its retention, I am sure we would still have it in place. I would like to see more, not less, referendums to ensure changes to our social structure and safety nets are approved by the people it will most effect.
The law, does have a major part to play in our move towards indyref and ultimately our recognised status as an Independent State recognised and upheld by the international community. An all or nothing petition before the courts regarding our Sovereignty is neither required or desirable. Such a petition should only come from those who challenge our right under Scots Constitunional law.
As it stands, the most important outcome of the recent petitions before both the COS and the SP has brought into the public domain the fact that neither the Crown or Parliament is above the law. This may be incidental, or one of the desired outcomes of the case, we will have to wait and see, but worth remembering the flurry of activity from the establishment distancing the Crown from Johnson.
One small step for Scotland, but an important one.
Thought Nicola raised the possibility of a section 30 back in Feb 17 only for May to mumble something about “now not a good time”. Ultimately nothing proved a good time for May.
It is the case that it hasn’t been raised in this parliament post the June 17 election or of this PM. A lot of water under the bridge since Feb 17.
I would like to see one initiated in Holyrood in next couple of weeks.
The FMs words when first asked about refusals, once again misquoted, she said *This will *prove* to be unsustainable*
Holyrood has not yet finalised the referendum bill, that will be completed by the end of this month then I expect before December the *Formal* request by the Scottish government for a section 30 order will take place for that transfer of power
Not the personal letter that the FM sent to Theresa May to discuss terms that some claimed was the request, but of course those people who did claim otherwise have agendas of their own for bending the facts
“I’m determined to lead my country to independence”
Nicola Sturgeon on the Andrew Marr show.
Posted by an independence supporter.
Its just the damned waiting. The troops like a bit of raw meat now & again.
@Dr Jim having listened to some key figures over the last year or so, yes, there are some faint hearts & some careerists, but those figures who have risen in this party over many years are resolute in their determination to achieve this goal.
@Dr Jim
Thzt is utter claptrap and you know it.It was letter following a vote at Holyrood in wbich Nicola was authorised to request a Section 30 order.
Nicola did not need a Ho!yrood vote to send Pedsnal letters to Mrs May.
An excellent interview by the First Minister of Scotland with Andrew Marr the slimeball Britnat.
The only part of the interview I was not happy with was Sturgeons reply to Marrs assertion that Scotland has a 7% annual deficit. You can only have a genuine deficit or surplus if you have complete control of all expenditure and all spending. In other words if you are independent. The Scotgov has less than 50% of Scotlands revenue (as calculated by the Britnats) under its control to spend. Most of the revenue goes straight to Westminster.
The deficit figure is pure propaganda.
Posted by an independence supporter not an SNP ultra or member. I obviously need to keep posting this point as some diddies have a problem letting it sink into their brain.
Dr Jim the spin doctor.
link to mobile.twitter.com
So that letter is a lie? We know that Nicola has good faith in believing liars like her head civil servant Evans who was adjudged to be a liar.
Imagine if Scotland had been hit by a typhoon in the past few days, 18 died, 1000’s injured 100,000 homes without electricity, floods, rivers burst their banks; would we be giving a tinker’s toss whether Scotland played Sam Mareno this afternoon or not?
Indeed would there be any question that the game, on all levels of respect, morality, and human dignity, should be playedat all?
Yet, rugger, the game played by private schoolboys, and gentlemen farmers, has been sitting on the edge of its posh privileged seat hoping upon hope that the Gavins and Frasers get the go ahead to play, in a country mired with devastation and loss of life.
What a fucking disgrace.
Nothing gets in the way of the Elite at play.
On another topic, I note you are on twitter ,Stu, peddling Plan B, UDI?, Armed Uprising? torch the holiday homes of the incomers from the South? or whatever nonsense is behind the Plan B nonsense.
The Alistair Darling gambit?
‘Where’s your Plan B , Mr Salmond’?
May rejected Sturgeon’s request for a S30 order.
She announced on Marr today, that she will be submitting an updated demand, not request, for a S30 order before the end of the year.
The fist stage of Plan A, the legislative framework for the Referendum, is making its way through Holyrood right now.
There is no Plan B.
If WM refuses, there is only one alternative? An IRA style war of attrition?
I sometimes wonder what some Independence minded citizens are sniffing.
But, hey, the rugby’s on at 11.00. Bloody marvellous.
For Late Risers. [smile emoji] The Panelbase Poll as reported in the Daily Record:
“Support for Scottish independence has risen to 50 per cent, according to a new poll .
The Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times Scotland also found more respondents than not believe the Scottish economy would be better off with independence in the EU than in the UK after Brexit…….”
The Record archived:
link to archive.is
Billy Connelly’s recent comments are a sign of a game changer me thinks.
(From memory) he says, ‘Politically Scotland isn’t prepared to take shit anymore – won’t put up with having to take what England votes for’.
In my opinion it shows an ardent Unionist prepared to admit – when in 2014 they absolutely would not – that Scotland does get treated like shit by the Union/English Govt.
That is an emotional journey he’s made, and he is not alone. People vote on their emotions, then they look for one or two ‘factoids’ to justify it.
And some emotions are more immediate or linked to survival instincts than others.
Last time out the BritNats had Project Fear – that is now firmly (and for real) with the Brexit Project and totally blameable on the English Nationalists.
So we can use that, and we also have Scottish Unionists emotionally admitting that Scotland is being treated like shit – an emotional sense of injustice, of being shafted, of being able to put that right.
On a different note – I have a personal rule of thumb whereby if someone ties themselves in knots to explain something and it takes too long, and they’re trying too hard – I start to doubt them big time. Think Tony Blair attempting to justify the Iraq war and you get the idea.
Sadly I got the same feeling attempting to read NS’s article in the Sunday National.
In my opinion Plan A has a lot more chance of succeeding if it is backed up by plan B as leverage.
Polls would indicate Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t have snowballs chance in hell of coming close in a GE, and Boris will win it comfortably. And yet that is where the SNP are shining a light?
I lived through the Thatcher years – when (to loud cheers from all over England, coupled with complete indifference from other corners) she utterly shafted Scotland, with her WM majority. England’s cheers are likely to be much louder now with a Boris majority and the Brexit zenophobia they’ve steered up.
Anyway 18 days now till a no deal Brexit = chaos = state of emergency = Holyrood closed down. And when a GE is held it will be at the same time as AS’s trial, and the injustice of the GRA movement will be weaponised big time to (quite justifiably) discredit those who push it.
Well played the British Establishment – you have spiked the SNP from within quite brilliantly – years of practice with Labour have trained you well.
Cubby says:
I agree completely. Nicola performed extremely well.
Marr is a sleekit wee naff. Upteen times he characterised the current Brexit situation as Boris’s deal versus no-deal. That pish is straight from a far right crib sheet. Quite rightly Nicola shot him down each time.
Yea. Her one weak response. She didn’t shot him down on this one though. She should have IMO. He claims Scotland has the worst deficit in Europe. Utter nonsense on so many levels.
It surprises me he side stepped that because it will be one of the main planks of BT2. She should have been prepared to deflate that false assertion easily.
Overall, a good interview. The rest of the show was the typical Britfest, mostly irrelevant to this country.
Nicola Sturgeon is a great compassionate person and worries about the people of Scotland’s welfare, why does she not appoint a group of MPs politicians who can push for independence maybe in a different way maybe a more legal way, advertising, meetings, marches boost up the number of independence voters, so when we go for it we’ll get it.
Keep your powder dry!
Wait until you can see the whites of your enemy’s eyes before you fire.
Timing is everything.
If you can only run one race, wait until you know you can win it.
Patience is a virtue.
In order to regain independence we need Bojo the serial liar and hater of the Scots in power.
We need to see how badly a Westminster Brexit will affect Scotland.
We need to know how the EU will deal with Scotland when England are out of the equation.
Look at the polls at the moment and as it fluctuates it’s almost 50/50.
Look at our First Minister’s own Independence Petition.
She asks us to back her with 300,000 signatures some months ago.
That small and realistic number barely increases from a current total of circa 288,700.
Does this official long standing petition not reaching its target suggest rampant support for Independence?
Hold Fire and ensure all chambers are loaded.
We are almost there!
link to yes.scot
dadsarmy says:
12 October, 2019 at 8:20 pm
@Legerwood
Is there some reason you’re posting in SGP that your comment was removed, without first seeing if anyone had replied to your posting on this forum – as I did – pointing out a likely reason it was removed?””
………….
Firstly, the comment I posted was correctly formatted i.e. paragraphs etc. I would not post block text because that makes it virtually unreadable.
Secondly, I had checked to see if anyone had replied and cynicalHighlander had replied to my original post and, in replying to him, I noticed that my original post was no longer there. Then, and only then, did I post elsewhere.
…..
Robert the Truth @ 9.19 pm
Ms Somerville has met with various women’s groups since withdrawing the bill but until the new draft bill is published there cannot be any public consultation. When the new draft Bill is published the public can express/contribute their views via https://consult.gov.scot
Where in my posts have I bad-mouthed any individual?
David Cameron as PM went into a GE with a manifesto promise that a vote/win for his party would mean they would deliver a Referendum on EU membership.
That is a legal and democratic precedent that has been set.
Is there any legal, democratic or moral reason that a majority win of WM seats won in Scotland by a party promising to deliver an IndyRef2 isn’t a sensible course of action – it seems a very fair set up.
The referendum itself is the deciding factor.
I really struggle to see the above as any kind of Unionist Trap.
Alex Salmond made the manifesto – a majority win for the SNP in Holyrood would mean an Indy Ref would be held.
These are legitimate democratic methods with legal precedent. I grudge Nicola Sturgeon casting dispersions on them, and then throwing them away. That’s not on.
Some of us are sick to death of signing petitions leading to nowhere.
Polls. My impression, rather than statistically precise analysis, is that the straight independence question is getting a 50:50 response. However, if caveats are introduced like ‘shite Brexit’ or if the question is about economic prospects etc, it’s more likely to be 55:45 for an Indy solution.
That’s a strong position to begin a campaign from. Pro Union campaigning has been relentless, Indy campaigning has been slowly simmering at best.
All we need is an IndyRef2 date and then Scotland will ‘rise to the occasion ‘.
I’m more optimistic than those who (with considerable justification) are more pessimistic that we will move forward in the next 12 months. The waiting is awful for everyone on the YES side, though.
The SNP leadership group do talk the talk. I (still) accept it as genuine, but some more ‘walking’ is needed soon.
Jack Collatin@11.21am
“For we can still rise now and be the nation again”
I refuse to believe that all the Scotland rugby players singing Flower of Scotland with such emotion are Britnats. So Jack Collatin you got your post wrong IMO on this point. The ground is full of Japanese so they do not share your opinion. They are proud that their country can put on the games. Resilience and organisation skills not disregard for their fellow countrymen. Scotland can learn a lot from Japan.
Not sure of your position/ what you were saying re violence etc but whoever, if anyone, is proposing that as a plan b then it is completely unacceptable and the people of Scotland will not go there.
So, in summary, I like most of your posts but this one you got way wrong.
PS I am not a great fan of rugby nor am I a supporter of private schools but I do like sport and I like to support Scotland when participating.
@Ruglonian says: 12 October, 2019 at 3:25 pm:
” … I find it quite unfathomable as to why the SNP behave as if they have a solid mass of continuing support – a bird in the hand comes to mind!”
Fact is that the SNP DO NOT act as if they had a solid mass of continued support. Which is exactly the reason that Nicola Sturgeon has been under unwarranted increasing pressure to, “Do Something”, by a large number of Wingers but has steadfastly not done so. Do you actually imagine the SNP leadership are daft?
If I remember correctly you are among that number of Wingers constantly criticising Nicola and the SNP leadership to take instant and rash decisions, “as if they have a solid mass of continuing support”, but the SNP leadership know better so do not take such rash actions.
Now I’m away back to lurking and letting you lot get on with arguing among yourselves and running down the SNP.
She’s still going after a Section 30 though. She must know that it’s going to be refused, so what’s the story? Is it just piecemeal to keep supporters onside?
link to edinburghnews.scotsman.com
O/T
Anyone have a link for SNP conference?
Daisy Walker @ 11:50,
I don’t understand your last para there, Daisy. It seems to me that the current SG policy is exactly as the remainder of your post indicates. The first such electoral test though will surely be a UKGE, and a significant win/gain in Scotland on a clear manifesto committment to IR2 is democratically unstoppable, as you say.
(Although incidentally the justification for having any referendum should never have to be anywhere near 50% of the population anyway; in Switzerland, for example, it’s just 50-100,000 signatures in a voting population of some 6M+.)
It’s not as though the SG doesn’t have sufficient mandate already, but an electoral win on a clear campaign headline for IR2 would silence much of the ridiculous BritNat propaganda we’ve had to endure since 2017.
I tried to post a link to the conference but it didn’t appear. Just type into your browser:
2019 SNP conference and it should be the first item returned.
It is on BBC Parliament / BBC iPlayer at 2:00 pm
link to bbc.co.uk
Thanks for swift replies-no tv licence here so BBC/iplayer is a no go area for me. Not even being shown on SNP You tube or Facebook channel as far as I can see. Thanks anyway.
Should have said this before but forgot.Daisy Walker & Capella & daughter (sorry didn’t catch the name)good to meet you all at the march in Edinburgh. Great to be able to put faces to names. That mud by the Wings gazebo was treacherous wasn’t it? 🙂
@Cubby 12.06
Good post.
One of the Scottish Rugby team was crying during Flower of Scotland, and I noticed one of the Japanese team likewise, and they cut to Japanese fans during their anthem, some had their eyes closed, and some had tears too.
I’m no sports fan either, but seems the Japanese are total heroes, coping with their worst typhoon for 60 years, AND letting this go ahead. I actually wondered who was threatening legal action, if the game didn’t go ahead, because given there have been deaths, I thought that was out of order.
Scottish fans I saw interviewed last night understood the dilemma too.
As a wee aside, Canadian Rugby team out helping locals clear the fanzone, in hopes of their match being on ok.
Cubby @12.06 and Valerie @ 1.12 pm
I repeat, if Scotlan was in ruins right now with 18 deaths and 100,000 homeless and the entire country flooded, would the San Marino match go ahead tonight.
Of course it wouldn’t.
Cubby, I am not saying that the Frasers and the Darcy’s are Brit Nats because they attended private schools…but that’s where the smart money is going.
There will never be a rugby team truly representing Scotland until it is open to all.
Like many Golf and Bowling Clubs it is the rugby is the Middle Class pursuit of the better off.
Until they are playing rugby in state schools, we’ll always get beat.
I’d love to undertake a poll/questionnaire among the queues at Murrayfield.
Valerie@1.12pm
Well thank you very much Valerie. I have a sister called Valerie. It’s not you Val is it? ?
Jack collatin, funny where i come from and in many other places on Scotland, Rugby, Golf and Bowls are all working class pursuits.
Japan 28-21 Scotland at 77 mins
Jack Collatin@1.34pm
Jack, if Nelson Madella can support an all white South African rugby team not long after spending 25 years in prison surely we can support a Scotland team with a few Fraser’s and Darcys, as you put it, in the team. Is it really asking too much?
If the Japanese are ok with putting the match on I really don’t see the problem. I think they are taking pride in keeping the tournament going. It’s their decision.
I note you did not reply on the more important point. Who if anyone is advocating violence as a plan B? I couldn’t understand what you were saying in your original post. Care to clarify?
Lenny Hartley@1.37pm
At the risk of upsetting some people Golf is Scotlands true national sport. I can recommend the book, Tommy,s Honour if you want to get a better understanding of the early days of golf in Scotland. Like football golf is another gift that Scotland has given to the world.
40 million Japanese watching the Scotland v Japan match. Massive boost to the morale of the country after the typhoon disaster. Jack sorry but you got this one wrong.
That was a FANTASTIC rugby match. No shame at all in losing to that Japan side in that stadium. Scotland took them on at the loose game rather than trying to keep it tight which with hindsight would’ve been smarter.
The Twickenham comeback seemed surreal, like I couldn’t believe it was happening. Tonight I really thought we were on our way mid way through the second half but Japan were just too good in defence.
It was the performance against Ireland that has cost us in what has turned out to be the toughest group.
I really thought if we lost to Japan it would be embarrassing but, although I’m pretty gutted, it feels like we were part of something really special today. Best of luck to Japan in the rest of the tournament.
Lenny Hartley/Cubby
I take it that you live in ‘the Borders’ ,Lenny.
Or Crow Road in Glasgow. Rugby bowls and golf are big in the West end of Glasgow.
Handy for the residents of those well known slums in Jordanhill, Broomhill and Kelvinside.
I repeat, guys, would the San Morino game be cancelled?
And,Cubby, I love the Nelson Mandela touch.
Listen to yourself:’ If Nelson Mandela can support an all white South African rugby team’ The corollary being that I should support a Scotland team of posh boys?
Nelson Mandela: Really. I mean, fucking really?
After Scotland losing do I really want to look at the latest Wings post.
1. Is it more Counsel of despair?
2. Will it have facts to back up its assertions/ beliefs?
Never thought I would post these comments. Wings was always about facts and analysis and for Scottish independence. Now some posters tell me Wings is about criticising all political parties. So if Wings sets up a political party will it criticise itself?
I may well vote for Wings as a regional list party but just as I am not an SNP member I will not be a Wings political party member either.
Japan’s defence was incredible, well-deserved to get through, though a draw at 28-28 would have been nice (even though not enough for Scotland).
Maybe if we have the World Cup at home in Scotland …
Jack Collatin
Sorry Jack you don’t have to support the Scotland team but my point is that is it that hard to do so in general for most Scots compared to Madella. Sorry if that is a problem for you to accept.
More important point what exactly were you meaning when you referenced IRA violence.
Nicola Sturgeon’s Section 30 letter to Theresa May
link to snp.org
For me the important bit of this: “I am therefore writing to begin early discussions between our governments to agree an Order under section 30 of the Scotland Act 1998 that would enable a referendum to be legislated for by the Scottish Parliament.”
“to begin early discussions”
YMMV (Your Mileage May Vary). It gave plenty of wiggle room to both sides, and in fact, both sides could use it to their own political advantage. Which is RealPolitik in the raw. “No, I was just wondering, I wasn’t really asking yet”.
@Dadsarmy,
The vote to request a sdction 30 took
place in Holyrood on that very motion. It was won by 69 to 59.
Those who voted to pass the section 30 request may wonder at your interpretation.
Rugby was played in all senior secondary schools in Edinburgh back when I was a lad 50 years ago
@Bob Mack
Here’s exactly what Holyrood voted on:
“That the Parliament acknowledges the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of government best suited to their needs and therefore mandates the Scottish Government to take forward discussions with the UK Government on the details of an order under section 30 of the Scotland Act 1998 to ensure that the Scottish Parliament can legislate for a referendum to be held that will give the people of Scotland a choice over the future direction and governance of their country at a time, and with a question and franchise, determined by the Scottish Parliament, which would most appropriately be between the autumn of 2018, when there is clarity over the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, and around the point at which the UK leaves the EU in spring 2019.”
link to parliament.scot
“and therefore mandates the Scottish Government to take forward discussions with the UK Government on the details of an order under section 30”
Which is what Sturgeon’s letter proposed.
“which would most appropriately be between the autumn of 2018, when there is clarity over the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, and around the point at which the UK leaves the EU in spring 2019”
Which hasn’t happened yet, so it’s still “around the time”!
I agree both sides could be argued, but that is both sides not just one.
@
Robert J. Sutherland says:
13 October, 2019 at 12:55 pm
Daisy Walker @ 11:50,
I don’t understand your last para there, Daisy
Aye Robert, I don’t think I’ve written it very well to be honest.
The First Minister says that a S30 route is the gold standard / legal method.
I say we are pursuing something that would never be honoured, and wasting time and energy chasing it, when we should be campaigning for Indy.
When the ‘opposition’ as she now calls them, say a Plan B would involve putting a commitment to holding IndyRef2 into a GE manifesto and holding it with or without a S30 order. She appears to be decrying this method as substandard, if not illegal.
Well, it was good enough for David Cameron to justify holding the EU ref – so there is a legal precedent.
Or 3rd option – the Maggie Thatcher method – we win over 50% of WM seats in Scotland and declare Indy. This option exists – we should not throw this particular set of goal posts out – given the nature of what we are up against. If only because it may well end up being our only democratic method of expressing our wishes.
The WM method of democracy is deeply flawed (by design I might add) – but we did not make it so. If it ends up being our only method to have the desire for Indy represented, I would rather our Political Reps had not rubbished it in advance.
I hope this explains it a bit better.
@ Lollysmum – very glad to meet you too, and Lizg – glad your leg is on the mend and you’re mobile – and brave too, considering the slippy mud.
No sane person would vote Conservative. Your left with either Labour or SNP. Being Scottish my only option is SNP.
Cubby @ 2.19 pm
The Plan B. What is it?
If WM says ‘naw, ye canny’, what then?
If not armed rebellion, please, please, tell us ignores what Plan B is?
Or is this thread just ‘get Nicola’ Day?
Cagey B @ 2.47 pm
Indeed I have no doubt that rugby was played in Edinburgh Senior Secondaries 50 years ago.
I’d wager that it was the ‘aspirational’ Highers boys who played, while the future artisans were in metal work classes preparing for a life on the tools building stuff at Rosyth.
I repeat guys, at 17.00 hours, would you be settling down to watch Scvotland V San Morino right now as a torrent of sewage was rushing past your window.? My last on this.
Heart of Galloway says:
13 October, 2019 at 8:10 am
Breeks@6.34am
I put this to you before but received no response. So with respect I’ll put it to you again.
You have never laid out how some kind of Scottish constitutional backstop would be achieved, and if achieved, honoured.
Yes I have, time and time again. Either you don’t read it, or don’t grasp what I’m saying.
Jack Collatin@5.02pm
Don’t really understand what you are asking me in the first part of your post.
I can answer your second point. No I do not think the Scotland game would be going ahead. No idea what you think this proves.
Cubby, no Plan B then?
So what is this gaggle of BTL banging their gums about?
Nicola Bad SNP Bad.
Enough already.
Jack Collatin
No plan b – what are you asking me this for? Are you mixing me up with some other poster?
cubby, see my post @11.21 am.
A bientot
The SNP has defeatists in it’s ranks and more than quite a few, some of them have been in the Party for 40 years and more so they are not disillusioned Labour voters who turned to the SNP.
The SNP lost 1/2 million votes at the last election, so at this point they must insure the these People (many of them Yessers) turn out and vote for them again, any hint at kicking anything into the long grass will be seen betrayal of Scotland and it’s People.
The SNP hierachy must now lead from the front and be seen to do so, all true Sovereign Scots are now watching CLOSELY !