Muddying the waters
We were as perplexed as anyone by the bizarre YouGov poll commissioned by “Better Together” and released today, which reveals that the status quo they’re so strenuously campaigning for is the least popular constitutional option among Scots. As there’s no “more powers” option on the referendum ballot paper, and the official No campaign can neither define any such option nor pledge to implement one, it’s hard to understand what they get from asking a three-choice question about a two-choice vote.
Indeed, the survey’s result – 32% “more devolution”, 30% independence, 29% status quo – actually gives a higher Yes figure than some recent two-option polls. So what on Earth can the No camp be thinking?
One possible explanation is that the Unionist parties are once again trying to lay claim to the significant proportion of Scots who actually want independence, but are scared of the word. One of the more bewildering and comical aspects of the No campaign has been the self-evidently ridiculous warning it likes to deploy that independence means an end to devolution:
“Independence would mean the end of devolution. Devolution ensures that Scotland has a strong position within the UK. Independence would remove Scotland from the UK, along with the benefits that devolution brings.” – HM Government report ‘Scotland analysis: Devolution and the implications of Scottish independence’ (p6, paragraph xii)
This is of course entirely true, but roughly as absurd as saying “Getting home from work means an end to the benefits of being stuck in traffic” – you might quite enjoy being able to listen to the stereo as loudly as you like without anyone complaining, but the chances are you don’t want to actually live in your car.
But that still doesn’t really explain why “Better Together” would want to cloud the issue with such an ambiguous result when every straightforward Yes/No poll gives them a clear lead. The only thing that makes sense is that a series of such polls across the last few months of 2013, exposing the softness of the No vote and the willingness of undecided voters to lean towards Yes, has made them deeply nervous.
The 32% of voters in favour of “more powers” is, coincidentally, exactly the same proportion who identified as “undecided” in a TNS poll in December. And it’s not hard to see why, as the perception develops that Don’t Knows are more likely to vote Yes, “Better Together” wants to paint a different picture of those who aren’t yet firmly in either camp.
In its more disingenuous moments, the No camp likes to point out that “more powers” are coming to Holyrood no matter what the result of the referendum, when the petty tinkerings of the Scotland Act 2012 actually come into effect in 2015. In such a way, it can claim the backing of both the “more powers” and “status quo” demographics without actually having to commit any of the No parties to anything beyond what they already conceded through the Calman Commission.
Today’s poll, then, seems like nothing more than a PR exercise aimed at distorting the true picture. Because we suspect very strongly that when respondents answered that they favoured “greater devolution”, they weren’t talking about control of landfill tax.
The No campaign is caught in a very awkward situation. It has no power to offer extended devolution, its constituent parties don’t really want to, and if it ever had to put a coherent proposal together it would risk being exposed as a poisoned chalice so toxic that even the Scottish media wouldn’t be able to whitewash it.
Whether that increasingly-restive media can help “Better Together” to keep stalling, obfuscating and evading its way out of the problem for another eight months will be the defining factor of the entire independence debate.
Im sure this is nearer the true figure at this time.
As stated on the last thread – personal polling of the public has had this split for a long while where I live.
We have to convince / ensure / remind those undecided but who want more power, that YES is the only way to vote and ensure this.
Likewise.
Apparently BT are ‘hailing’ this. It’s a very strange poll. Just wait for when Yes are leading Yougov polls or at least level pegging. We’ll be promised the world just not independence, if we vote no!
“Independence would mean the end of devolution“
Aye it would! And if hell froze over we could all use skates.
It’s hard to understand why the No Better Together UKOKs would even comment on this let alone hail its findings. Desperation? Hoping no-one would notice? Maybe this is why the Herald announced today that a raft of British celebs will be dragged in to the debate to persuade voters in Scotland to vote No. I can’t imagine who might be on board the raft, short of the usual Proudscots like Lulu and Ronnie Corbett. Who knows, maybe luminaries such as Little Mix and One Direction might be this UK government’s answer to Blair’s Cool Britannia brigade.
Better Together shouldn’t even be pushing devolution. They should be pushing a Scotland that is part of the UK, and with no separate health, education or legal statutes. We’re not even close to being together as they seem to imagine.
The only thing that they can actually offer is a financial safety net of Westminster when things go tits up in the banking world. They’re assuming that an indy Scotland would have the same financial vultures and reckless numpties that populate the City of London, without much evidence to back it up.
Stick to what they’re good at: Making Scottish people feel small and reliant.
Well, we all know and fully expect that when the panic button is inevitably pressed at “NO” HQ, some “Devo Max” jam-tomorrow scheme will be wheeled out.
Isn’t that really what this poll is about? A realisation/admission that NO has shot it’s bolt and their job is now to lay the foundations for a Devo Max promise?
So, basically the No are running behind the Yes and the don’t knows/wont vote/ don’t give a monkey’s are growing, by way of reducing the No’s?
Bring it on.
And here is The Metro take on this:
“A stronger Scottish parliament within the UK is the most favoured option among Scots ahead of the independence referendum, according to a poll. Some 32 per cent of Scottish adults want devolution inside the UK but with more powers for Holyrood, a poll on behalf of the pro-UK Better Together campain found. Scottish independence was the second most popular option at 30 per cent.”
Make of that what you will!
Heads Up Stu …..
Willie Rennie, Culloden Debate (BBC) quote “Devolution could be removed on a whim”.
Will see if I can find the Iplayer/ Ipod file.
The NO camp will put some spin on it, saying the 29% for status quo and 32% for extra powers still want to be in the UK!
With a slow but steady increase in support for YES, the current BT narrative now seems to be, that more devo powers is by far the most popular choice, and more powers are indeed coming (don’t ask!). Therefore, BT still represents the majority!. Nice try!
@Harry Shanks, yes, I agree with you. BT must be trying to jolt the various political parties backing them into producing some policies for Scotland in the event of a no vote. The Yes camp are referring people to the White Paper a lot, and, despite dismissing it, BT know they need something to put up against it. As we get closer to the vote, people will start asking them ‘well, we’ve seen the White Paper, what’s your propsal?’ – and the silence could be deafening. Nicola Sturgeon is beginning to ramp up the pressure on this one, so they do need to come up with something soon.
Great Pic of the legendary Muddy Waters, seen him in concert at the Fusion Aberdeen back in the early 80’s awesome.
The only reason I could think of asking the third option would be to give them a chance to change the definition of no at the last minute to that of Devo Max to try to win when they are losing to Yes. I wonder if one last punt to save the Union might end up with them offering more than they would have wished from the start
In 1979 we were told to vote NO and Westminster would sort it out (M Thatcher) Well we didn’t meet the criteria that Jack Cunningham (lab mp) imposed on us.
Result: no shipyards, no coal mine, no ravenscraig, no linwood. Yep Westminster kept their promise THEY SORTED US OUT OK. and lied through their teeth about North Sea oil.
SCUM AND NOTHING HAS CHANGED! TORY & LABOUR. BETTER TOGETHER = unionist
Its not ‘Status Quo’ though, is it? Far more of the existing policies which effect real people, care of the elderly, free tuition fees, free prescriptions, bus passes etc. are going to change drmatically with a No vote.
In many ways, a Yes vote will keep things much closer to the Status Quo than a No vote.
From that POV, it wouldn’t surprise me if some of those picking the ‘Status Quo’ option were not intending to vote Yes. Indeed, if that is their primary motivation, then they should.
I think it’s safe to say the No campaign’s internal polling has them rather worried, and they’ve reached the point where they can no longer bank on getting the result they want when asking the straight Yes/No question.
@PickledOnionSupper
Yes, Devo-Max has been the unionist fall-back position for months.
8 months ago I attended a “British” organisation’s board meeting where a former Labour MSP – was being paid to “enlighten” the board members (80% of whom were English) on what they regarded as the “referendum malarkey”.
At that meeting she made it quite clear that the intention is that “status quo” will not be the eventual option put forward by “NO” – option and Devo Max proposals will be put forward by the Labour Party as and when necessary.
So, the poll is part of that IMHO.
O/T I just deactivated my FB account since I noticed the access location given was Cumbernauld which is nearly a hundred miles away from Kirrie. Is that normal?. I’ve never even used a mobile device anywhere within 20 miles of Cumbernauld.
My posts in the last few days have been disappearing after a few seconds, which is what prompted the above discovery. Checked my timeline but did not see anything untoward there.
I only ever use it to put up political stuff (apart from acknowledging family members birthdays etc.). My political paranoia gland is twitching over both of those.
So, from the poll, we can safely say, the majority of Scots (62%) do NOT want the status quo, which is EXACTLY what the no campaign are offering.
No further powers are on the ballot. Unionists were invited to add them if they wanted. They chose not to. As a consequence, only a YES vote will bring more powers.
Vote NO and get nothing. Vote YES and get more powers. It really is that simple.
Greannach: the Herald announced today that a raft of British celebs will be dragged in to the debate to persuade voters in Scotland to vote No. I can’t imagine who might be on board the raft
I think they are going to get the big guns in. Colin Firth and Mary Berry.
O/T
Stu, did you recently (3 Jan) write a post entitled “Listen to this”, and if so, what happened to it? When I tried to access it via my email notification it wasn’t there. I’m getting error 404, whatever that means.
Is it a problem with my account or did you decide to remove the post?
“Is it a problem with my account or did you decide to remove the post?”
The post was deleted as the video wasn’t working.
There is no way that Devo-max will be granted. We have all the devo we’re going to get. It is entirely impossible that Westminster would give Scotland full control of everything but defence, currency and foreign affairs. They’d have a riot on their hands in England if they tried. There’s enough resentment there as it is.
They may try to pretend they’re going to produce something resembling Devo-max, but it will resemble it as much as the Cumbrae ferry resembles the QE2.
Is it a problem with my account or did you decide to remove the post?
He decided to remove the post, because the article was just a link to a YouTube clip nobody could open. Some sort of copyright issue I think.
The rationale behind BT releasing the results of this poll is indeed mind-boggling.
That only 29% support the status quo isn’t surprising. The same people were probably the ones that opposed devolution in the first place but that the poll shows more support for independence is hardly discouraging to the Yes camp! Indeed, had the Yes camp released this poll I would be very happy.
This is a major own goal by the No camp and will be mentioned much in the months ahead, although not bey them!
How wonderful, as far as BT are concerned Yes is now in front of no, happy daze!
chic McGregor
have a read of my last post on the last thread
The proposed ‘Love-in’ is straight out of the Canadian Government’s attempts to prevent Quebec independence. At the last referendum, the Canadian Government paid to fly thousands of people to Quebec to tell the people there, that all of Canada loved them very, very much etc. It was seen as an act of desperation.
I find it laughable considering some of the abuse against Scots on a daily basis in ‘news’ papers based in London, that such a silly idea is being tried.
I cannot ever forget the level of abuse and vitriol printed over and over again in London. Nor can I forget the blatant anti Scotland racist comments, heard on the BBC and within the Houses of commons and Lords on a regular basis.
How shallow and desperate can the NO campaign get?
Thanks Morag 🙂
scaredy cat
i saw the exact same thing and since then have had problems
did your screen jump in and out of other threads and then go back to the top of the page a few times i phoned my provider and they said engineers are in the area
not at 8:30pm
morag
thanks for that didnt see your post before replying to scredy cat sorry
but i`ve still got problems
For those that haven’t seen the full YouGov poll
YouGov poll
Have a look at the ‘trust’ polling 🙂
“For those that haven’t seen the full YouGov poll”
That seems to be from September.
From today’s Herald:
He [Blair McDougall] said: “Our argument this year will be that devolution gives us the best of both worlds and this poll confirms most people in Scotland agree with us.”
What complete, utter bunk. Bitter Th’gither are arguing for the status quo i.e. a devolved Scottish parliament with very limited powers (Devo-Lite). What BT’s own poll is telling them is that it is DEVO-MAX that will give most Scots the “best of both worlds”, not the status quo, not Devo-Lite.
But as everyone here knows, David Cameron fought with every fiber of his being to ensure that Devo-Max was off the table, was not an option. Which means folks, to get the “best of both world” (a fully independent Scotland working together within the family of nations of the EU–which hopefully will include the rUK) then it is achieved only with a YES vote in September.
Do not let them con us like they did in 1979 with false promises of more powers. Easy to make before the vote and just as easy to retract after they get their desired result. Power devolved is power retained. We should never forget that. Only with full independence is the power obtained and retained.
Stu “That seems to be from September“.
Correct. The poll being reported today, has, according to YesScotland, been sampled between 13-16 September. Why it’s only been published now is beyond me, maybe the latest poll is worse.
So 62% want a change from the status quo. And the only option for change being offered is independence.
So far so good, and it’s only January.
Nice poll. High on independence and devo more/max for a Yougov one, so worrying for BT.
It wouldn’t surprise me if they asked the straight Y/N and it had shown another narrowing of the gap so have kept quiet on this front.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but the question on the referendum ballot paper has been decided and is now set in stone and it has a YES or NO response box; it is only the one question because the NO side refused to have a devo question on the ballot form and they insisted it be only the single question which was accepted by the Electoral Commission and agreed upon by both sides.
If so, why all of this discussion and emphasis on a devo option being available and ready to be simply rolled out to win the NO’s day?
Are they going to say – trust us – vote no to independence and we will give you all these goodies when the time comes? Do they really think so little of the Scottish electorate? Do they think we are really so gullible and stooopid to believe them for a third time?
Do not let them con us like they did in 1979 with false promises of more powers.
They didn’t. We voted YES in 1979.
@Barontorc
YES to each of the questions in your final paragraph
Did you really doubt it?
There’s been an 8% swing to NO in just 15minutes over at Daily Record debate poll
link to dailyrecord.co.uk
Harry Shanks says:
“There’s been an 8% swing to NO in just 15minutes over at Daily Record debate poll”
Doesn’t seem to be working at all now. I’ve tried voting, but just get the spinning thingy and can’t see the result.
If that yougov poll was sampled in Sept, how did they know to ask about the childcare question since the policy on childcare wasn’t announced until the White Paper?
Slight correction – I should have said: “David Cameron will fight with every fibber of his being to save the Union.”
16.37
Just took the DR poll; results Yes- 82%, No- 18%
If that yougov poll was sampled in Sept,
There are two polls. One from September which had questions on devolution of powers etc and a recent one from December which contains the 3 options of indy / devo more and devo max. Also childcare Q.
Has anyone tried to see the reaction of the public to the “Independence means the end of Devolution” statement?
It would be useful to get a measure of how stupid the Unionist think we are, and more importantly, do we deserve the scorn behind the statement.
The “No campaign must set out vision” headline was quite prominent earlier in the day on BBC Scotland’s homepage but now it is practically nowhere to be seen. There is also no mention of this poll anywhere. This is a time when the media should be putting the No campaign under some pressure, but that’s as likely as seeing pigs flying outside your window on their way to a skiing trip in hell.
Robert Louis
I don’t know the state of the Canadian economy when this happened, but the idea of “celebrities” aka millionaires telling the people of Scotland to stay in the Union of foodbanks and cuts, strikes me as being illogical and insulting, and will blow up in the faces of BT and the celebrities themselves.
Since celebrities savour “good” publicity, they may realise this of course, but there may be some who take Cameron’s shilling and will suffer accordingly.
Also on muddying the waters, interesting to see the comment on the twittter feed on this page, by D Hothersall, still not sure who he is, that the 2012 Scotland Act is somehow new powers connected to if we vote No.
This Act has been in existence since 2010, and will come into effect in 2015, but it has nothing to do with Scotland voting No.
I have always considered the ‘powers’ in it to be a poison chalice, and if it had been suggested after the SG got its overall majority in 2011, it wouldn’t exist.
“The only reason I could think of asking the third option would be to give them a chance to change the definition of no at the last minute to that of Devo Max”
There is one real problem with this though. The polls have been remarkably consistent in showing that, given 3 options, there is about an equal split. Around 30-33% for indy, 25-30% for the status quo and 33-35% for devo-max. With generally a handful (6-8%) wanting no devolution at all.
The third who are pro-independence are unlikely to be swayed by either campaign or the white paper, or scaremongering, or to care what currency we used.
Similarly those who want the status quo are unlikely to be swayed by anything the Yes campaign say. They’ll be mainly Tories, or the kind of Labour people who can’t see past blind hatred of the SNP and think any further devolution will be some kind of “prize” for Salmond. Many of them will not have supported devolution in the first place and be cursing Lord Roberston for his “kill the SNP stone dead” remark.
The big problem Better Together will have is that the pro-independence third will be out there campaigning, sharing, persuading: they form the bedrock of the Yes campaign. The white paper clearly seems aimed at the devo-max third. It’s calm, business-like, not too overly emotional and in some ways stresses an indy-lite approach, keeping some things the same and not too much change. The devo-max types will be the undecided, and those keeping quiet.
The bedrock for Better Together (in so far as they have one) will be that status quo third. If a “no” becomes not the status quo anymore but devo-max – whether that’s a lie or not – they surely risk enraging their own core support? And that will include a lot of people outside Scotland, potentially some of their big Tory backers. It would also effectively remove representation from that third making the vote independence/devo max. If it later turns out to be a lie it’s effectively disenfranchised 2 thirds of the electorate!
I can still see them doing it despite all that. But the cost to that whole side would be high I’d imagine, regardless of the result.
Yep Simple Simon over at the Torygraph was trying to spin it as 70% don’t want independence. I quickly put that eejit straight.
I’m sure BT private polling is telling them the NO vote is seriously uncertain to win on the day and they have had to come up with a cunning plan in the absence of any positive reason for voting NO to counteract this.
I heard Murdo Fraser this morning tell us we would definitely be receiving more powers (Calman) and that all the Unionist parties were working on their own proposals for yet further devolution powers. Whilst all of us know this is a load of brown stuff, I really believe they will tell us at some point – possibly June/July – that polls such as were published today indicate 70% want either no change or enhanced devolution, and they are the ones who are going to give us what we have consistently shown we want; far better than taking a leap in the dark led by that devious untrustworthy Salmond man.
So I do think the BT lot are thick enough to publish this as part of their gameplan, but I also think a majority of Scots will have seen through them and their “cunning plan” long before then.
Nevertheless, it’s a constant irritation and worry that the MSM and BBC are allowing and reporting downright lies from BT to take centre stage in any item linked to the referendum.
With Osborne talking of another 25 billion of cuts and mumblings of complaint about the strategy or lack of it in the No camp by senior Tories I am beginning to wonder if the Labour people in the No camp do think we are better together. With the ever increasing number of traditional Labour leaders breaking ranks on the matter, many of them of considerable standing within the party (although easily dissed by new Labour acolytes who would sell their granny for a safe seat) it is little wonder activists are looking askance.
I was little unnerved to hear on the radio this morning that there are great numbers of celebrities rUK ones who are lining up to love bomb us into the Union. I wasn’t aware that the No camp were going for the Children of God/Scientology approach to membership recruitment. It is a tad disturbing to be honest.
Devo Max / very enhanced devolution was being bandied around during the 2007-11 term. The SNP were up for that as a deal with the, ahem, ‘federalist’ Libs on a multi-option referendum (indy, devo X, status quo). Of course the Libs refused, the Tories returned and so there was 2011. Devo max then took centre stage before being roundly shouted down by unionists; no chance of that.
Up to 7 in 10 supported in back in 2009. little change since.
Do folks really think the electorate will be fooled by offers of jam tomorrow? Oh they’ve been holding out to see if something comes up; pushing things to the limit…
But that something would need to be carved in 10 ft letters into granite, signed in blood by the unionist party leaders and mounted on Edinburgh castle esplanade for all eternity before folks gave it some credence / thought it might be a genuine offer.
It’s why when you ask people now, they don’t believe there will be more powers of any significance in the event of a No.
WoS polling showed it. As did the YouGov poll in September. Even though the latter tends to be favourable to unionists due to methodology, it gave just 18% thinking there’d be significantly more devolution following a No.
Oh, and any devo proposal that doesn’t contain control of oil revenues will be roundly rejected, no matter how sincere it appears.
Would stink to high heaven.
Hence all stink so far.
link to bbc.co.uk
‘Aye right’ to even those giving them just a passing glance.
As Rev has said, Scotland wants independence. Frame things without using the ‘I’ word and you get a Yes. Won’t matter on the day though as nobody can see which box you place your X in.
Scotland’s just polite. Probably too polite at times.
This poll was only meant to be spun as 70% against independence and that was as much thought the figures were given. It shows how hatred can blind you to what other people can see.
@ Patrician – spun or conflated call it as you like, but that is exactly what our favorite BBC psephologist Prof Jhn Curtice did on NNS tonight – he lumped the NO and DK together to make 70! Has this guy no professional shame?
This raft of celebs, do they live in Scotland? do they have a vote? are they effected by the day to day policies of Westminster or Holyrood? what are their earnings? Are they likely to be effected by independence?
Anyway back to the first question, do you live in Scotland?…No…well fuck off!