Meta-polling #1
Okay, we’re cracking on with this poll thing. Now we need your opinion.
We want to put a question that will make people really think about the prospects of extra powers for the Scottish Parliament in the event of a No vote. Which of these do you think is the best way of wording it?
OPTION 1
In the event of a No vote in the referendum, which, if any, of these statements do you agree with? (You may tick more than one answer.)
– A Conservative UK government would be willing to give more powers to an SNP Scottish Government.
– A Conservative UK government would be willing to give more powers to a Labour Scottish Government.
– A Labour UK government would be willing to give more powers to an SNP Scottish Government.
– A Labour UK government would be willing to give more powers to a Labour Scottish Government.
OPTION 2
When Ed Miliband talks of a “One Nation Britain” if Labour win the next election, do you interpret that to mean:
– More scope for Scotland to do things its own way?
– Less scope for Scotland to do things its own way?
– It’s not relevant to Scotland.
Or do you think there’s another, better way? (In which case please suggest it in the comments and choose Option 3.) SPEAK YOUR BRAINS NOW.
Which is the best way to put the question?
- Option 1 (42%, 153 Votes)
- Option 3 (31%, 114 Votes)
- Option 2 (27%, 100 Votes)
Total Voters: 367
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I like Option Two, but I think Option One is the best way of phrasing it. Also not sure that ‘One Nation’ will have permeated public consciousness well enough with the general population.
So we’ve already got two people clicking Option 3 without suggesting an alternative. *ROLLEYES*.
I think as a presursor to the first option it is worth asking
“Do you believe that in the event of a No vote more powers will be devolved to Scotland?”
Other interesting questions could be asked along the lines of:
“Do you think the rest of the UK should have a say on further Scottish devolution?”
The Ed Milliband thing strikes me as a bit of a “Westminster bubble” thing. Focusing on beliefs about further devolution is probably more data worthy and perhaps more news worthy?
Might be worth asking if people believe that more devolution is required to finally “settle” the independence question?
“I think as a presursor to the first option it is worth asking
“Do you believe that in the event of a No vote more powers will be devolved to Scotland?””
You remember we’re paying £360 a pop (inc VAT) for these questions, right?
😀
I do like the way two people have voted for “option 3” without actually writing in an option 3.
Damn, gazumped by the Rev!
option 1 question with different responses, say
would a UK government give more, less, maintain current powers to a Scottish goverment
I think that the first option is somewhat verbose, and the second option doesn’t really get at the real question.
Perhaps I’d phrase it like this:
In the event of a No vote, which of these parties do you think would be most likely to vote for additional powers for Holyrood?
– Conservatives
– Labour
– Other (including Liberal Democrats)
– None of the above
“In the event of a No vote, which of these parties do you think would be most likely to vote for additional powers for Holyrood?”
I don’t think that tells us anything. “Vote for” is irrelevant, because votes don’t matter if you don’t command a Westminster majority.
Option 1: why is the public’s OPINION of what a post-No Tory/Labour would allow Hollyrood Tory/Labour/SNP to do, valuable? Are you ACTUALLY asking people to consider this question in order to guide their opinion that the No Vote would lead to status-quo/worse for Hollyrood? It does seem like a leading question to me.
Option 2: How will any pollee interpet “One Nation Britain” to mean “more scope for Scotland to do things its own way”. Again, are you just trying to make the pollee consider that Labour will try to reign Scotland back in following a No?
Option 3: I dunno! How about
Please tick ONE OF the following:
“I will vote No in the hope that Hollyrood gains more power, but within the UK”.
“I will vote No in the hope that Hollyroods powers are reduced”.
“I will vote No but want Hollyrood to stay the same”.
“I will vote Yes”.
.. is that helpful? I’m not very clear on what you’re trying to ask.
“Are you ACTUALLY asking people to consider this question in order to guide their opinion that the No Vote would lead to status-quo/worse for Holyrood?”
I want them to make them think about it before they answer. That isn’t quite the same as being “leading”, because there’s more than one line of thought it could provoke (for example, it could lead them to think “I better make sure I vote Labour in both elections”). I think the second option is a bit leading, but has the benefit of being simpler.
1
Is there room for ‘less powers’ choices in option 1? Or is that taking it too far the wrong way?
Opted for 3.
Do you know that English mp’s will still be able to vote on many Scottish matters in Westminster after a No vote, but that Scottish MP’s will not be allowed to vote on English matters in Westminster after a no vote.
Similar to what Eoin said but:
“In the event of a No vote, do you think any of these parties would give additional powers for Holyrood?”- Conservatives- Labour- Other (including Liberal Democrats)- None of the above
I think I prefer option 2. I am not sure Ed knows what he means when he talks though so it is a moot point.
Not sure about option 1 – not sure if that would tell us much we don’t already know.
Tricky thing this polling business – especially if you aren’t just asking the “Should Scotland separate and watch its children starve?” type questions.
I really don’t think any “do you know…?” questions are a good idea, with the possible exception of the biggies like McCrone, just in a single question. What’s the point?
Option 2 is too Labour centric and unlikely to ever apply. Option 1 covers all likely outcomes.
Option 3 – let’s see what comes up.
“Option 2 is too Labour centric”
We’re asking this poll in Scotland, remember? I think it’s a safe bet to say that most of the people likely to vote No are currently Labour supporters whose main reason for doing so is that they think Labour will win the 2015 election and deliver more devolution.
I think Pete’s option 3 is closer. Gives us some info about the person’s reasons for their choice which can then be linked in with their responses to later questions. Options 1 & 2 are too wordy and refer to ideas most people won’t have heard of or considered.
In the event of a No vote in the referendum do you think a Westminster Government of whatever make-up would give a Scottish Government any new powers?
Not an expert, would welcome S_S contribution, but I went for option 3. My thinking is that option 1 is too long-winded and although the answer would be interesting, I think there is a danger that the respondents tick all, or none.
Option 2 is better phrased, but even I don’t know what “one nation Labour” means, so not sure the answer would help.
I think I would go for a likert scale thing if that’s doable, along the lines of; “In the event of a NO vote in the referendum, how likely do you think a Westminster government would devolve more powers to Holyrood” (1 = not at all likely; 10 = Highly likely)
I understand why you might want to qualify this for different scenarios, but am not sure what value you get is 10% think the Tories will never give anything to anybody; 30% think Labour to SNP; 50% think Labour to labour, the rest don’t know. I suspect on powers (i.e. Devo something) it’s Westminster vs. Holyrood, and not simply Westminster vs. the SNP.
“I understand why you might want to qualify this for different scenarios, but am not sure what value you get is 10% think the Tories will never give anything to anybody; 30% think Labour to SNP; 50% think Labour to labour, the rest don’t know.”
I’d say your 10-option scale is much worse in that respect. A four-point scale might work, though.
OPTION 1
In the event of a No vote in the referendum, which, if any, of these statements do you agree with? (You may tick more than one answer.)
1. Scotland will be given no control over its own resources and will continue to be funded at the Barnett Formula level or below.
2. Scotland will be given control of its oil revenues but will have other funding reduce proportionally to keep its funding at the Barnet formula level or below
3. Scotland will be given control of its oil revenues and will be allowed to become richer than the rest of the UK.
OPTION 2
When Ed Miliband talks of a “One Nation Britain” if Labour win the next election, do you interpret that to mean:
1. Scotland and England will be brought closer together legally, administratively and financially
2. Scottish public services and education will be brought into line with the privatisation and tuition fees in England
3. All sporting and cultural differences between Scotland and England will be removed and there will only be British sporting teams and British culture.
I don’t like your options for question one because they imply that there will be a chance of more powers coming to Scotland.
Option two should spell out the danger of “One Nation” Britain more.
Apologies if I’ve overlooked this but, I assume this poll will be web based only?
“Apologies if I’ve overlooked this but, I assume this poll will be web based only?”
No.
sorry that should be “one Nation Britain” not labour. oops
Option 3 –
In the event of a No vote in the referendum, what areas of your life will a UK Government actively seek to improve?
A) A UK Govt will actively promote London Businesses to re-locate in Scotland.
B) A UK Govt will immediately reverse recent Austerity Cuts.
C) None of the above, they will not improve anything for me if Scotland Votes No.
“In the event of a No vote in the referendum, what areas of your life will a UK Government actively seek to improve?”
That’s a bewilderingly different question.
I think no matter what “party” in Westminster or rather whatever name they use,they will claw powers back.I don’t think that there is more than one party and its the Westminster party,they just use different names to pretend that they stand for different things.
For option 1 of course the respondent need not tick any boxes. Maybe this should be added in the notes. I don’t think any Westminster government is going to grant any additional powers. Austerity max and lite are all about central control.
How about asking the referendum question?
“How about asking the referendum question?”
Waste of time and money. It’ll just have been asked.
I liked the one by
David says:
23 July, 2013 at 6:06 pm
option 1 question with different responses, say
would a UK government give more, less, maintain current powers to a Scottish goverment
A related question I’d like to ask:
In the event of a no vote in the independence referendum, should Scotland be prevented from having another referendum for a minimum number of years, e.g. 30 years?
I’d go for option 1 modified with an “I don’t believe any UK Govt would be willing to devolve further powers to any Scottish Govt” option.
I don’t like option 2 at all as it falsely purports that the utterly unelectable Milliband’s “One Nation” (Toryism?) is of any consequence to Clyde navigation whatsoever.
Depends what your primary objective is here Stu. If you are trying to determine trust in Westminster re vague promises about ‘Jam Tomorrow’ if we vote No then the first option is the clearer of the two.However the way you have constructed Q1 is surely over complicated? Why not just ask..
In the event of a No vote would Westminster….(one answer)
Give a substantial increase in power to Holyrood?
Give a minimal increase in power to Holyrood?
Take power away from Holyrood?
You can sort voters by voting preference and that will tell you how much supporters of each party view the question
Framing questions is critical and I would suggest (putting my Marketing hat on) that you pay some of the fund to an experienced researcher before you fix on the questions?
If you ask your supporters from a list of key issues that you suggest or were raised yesterday to vote on what they want answers to then you can take that brief to a research expert.
I like 1, cause it covers the likely set ups of both parliaments in the event of a No Scotland outcome. It says “Here are the ACTUAL scenarios, do you agree with any.all of them?”. I’d be surprised if that didn’t shoogle a few “devo-max or bust” remnants. I read the options and just laughed, all 4 suggestions seem like the kind of thing you’d usually only mention seriously if you were lying, making money off BS or were a newbie to Scotland / Scottish politics. Naechance of more Devo, the only time the UK-wide parties even talk about Scotland is to tell us to simmer doon and get back in our place under the heel of Queen and Country.
Way too complicated
@Morag;
If it’s a multiple answer question rather than a yes or no question, and the answer given is, say, to option 1 was answer 2. because you’re not allowed to pitch an preference/reply, the data collected tells us that people when given a hypothetical scenario with four outcomes will choose one of them. In order to extrapolate what people are aware of, surely a binary response to a binary question is more concise?
Option 3
What do you think will be the result of the referendum?
No by miles
No but close
Yes but close
Yes by miles
What do you think will be the result of a No vote?
The Scottish Parliament will be given more powers and more responsibilities
The Scottish Parliament will be given no more powers
The Scottish Parliament will be have some of its present powers removed
The Scottish Parliament will be abolished
How about in the event of a NO vote, do you think that Westminster will devolve more powers, keep the same powers, or remove some powers.
I think its good to get voters thinking of a NO vote and the repurcussions of such, especially as the MSM are avoiding it.
I liked Doug’s Option 2
although it scared the bejaysus out of me.
@ handclapping
What do you think will be the result of a No vote?The Scottish Parliament will be given more powers and more responsibilitiesThe Scottish Parliament will be given no more powersThe Scottish Parliament will be have some of its present powers removedThe Scottish Parliament will be abolished
I like that as a separate Q with a modified Option 1.
Okay Rev.
How else?
Just, if the question is delivered verbally, some questions may contain too much information to compute for poor old probably apathetic to much of the genre, but happy enough to give it whirl.
“people when given a hypothetical scenario with four outcomes will choose one of them”.
I’m no pollster, but if that is true we need a fifth scenario:
– No UK Government will be willing to grant any additional powers to any Scottish Government.
should go with option 1,but it should also contain ‘none of the above’
BTW thought by option 3 I was referring to third choice of option 2, well that’s my excuse!
At least I am honest.
‘Waste of time and money. It’ll just have been asked.’
But not by an independent Scottish polling company.
“But not by an independent Scottish polling company.”
Is there such a thing? It’ll have been asked by the same people we’re using.
Option 1, because it gets the responder to face the reality that there is not a single combination of UK & Scottish governments that would lead to more powers – not even Labour/Labour since they think things are best done at a UK level. Maybe a “none of the above” option too though?
I like dougthedug’s suggestion ,it’s more my style . I Rev’s suggestions/style would make me turn-off pronto….
Option 3 as suggested by Eoin is the best so far as it includes the ‘none of the above’ option and is the most easily understood.
I think we’re giving too much credit to Ed with option 2. Very few people polled will know about ‘One Nation Britain’. The word ‘scope’ as oppose to ‘powers’ is also quite vague.
I voted Option 1 but notice there’s not an actual tick box for the “if any” (ie: not any) answer.
I may be missing the point, sorry, but I’m interested in what the No or Don’t Know is thinking and I’m not sure their answer to these questions helps at all, or helps change their minds.
Could you ask: If there is a No vote in the referendum do you think Scotland will get more powers from Westminster? Yes/No answer.
If there is a large Yes vote then we will know if the MSM/Unionists attempts have succeeded. If there is a large No vote then it would show that voters are very sceptical about the delivery of more powers after a No vote.
“If there is a No vote in the referendum do you think Scotland will get more powers from Westminster?”
Thing is, that one’s just recently been asked:
link to snp.org
with the result that 33% said yes and 47% said no.
It’s daft to spend our money duplicating stuff that’s already been polled. We want to find out stuff we don’t already know.
I don’t think option 2 does anything to disabuse a Labour voter of any delusional 2015 winning notion but gives undue credence to their unelectable leader.
Yes! Muttley’s is clear.
@Mutley;
Like it.
Or how about option 1 followed by “What do you think is the likelihood of Ed Miliband and Johann Lamont becoming Prime Minister and First Minister in 2015 and 2016 respectively? “
@Roddy M
I think I’m in tune with what RevStu is getting at but its too political. We are asking Joe Public not political anoraks like us.
The first part of the question is to make them consider the reality of the world we are in and then the second part gets them thinking of what may happen. The cross tab on the two would be very interesting
My apologies Rev I picked option 3 without comment first…
I think in both ‘option 1 & 2’ there should be a ‘none of the above’.
“I think in both ‘option 1 & 2? there should be a ‘none of the above’.”
Option 2 pretty much does have that answer. The problem with putting it in Option 1 is that it makes the poll awkward to conduct. Someone might have answered Yes to one or more of the statements, then you get to “none of those” and they think “Ooh, actually it’s that one”, then everything is confusing and the pollster has to go back and change the previous answers and the whole thing’s a mess.
I’m not contemplating a No vote. Scotland will cease to exist if that happens, and rightly so.
A Modified Mutley?
If there is a No vote in the referendum do you think
1. Scotland will get more powers from Westminster? Yes/No answer.
2. Westminster will remove powers from Scotland?
3. There will be no change in the arrangement of powers between Westminster & Scotland?
4. Westminster will abolish the Scottish Parliament?
Option 3.
All 3 main UK parties have said they will devolve more powers to the Scottish parliament if there is a No vote in the independence referendum.
Do you believe them? Yes/No
In the event of a NO vote in the referendum, which of the following do you agree with?
The size of the minority Yes vote could lead to increased powers for Holyrood
The size of the majority No vote could lead to decreased powers for Holyrood
The size of the vote will make no difference
Okay, fair enough. Misunderstood the project.
Question 1 works for me because IMO the majority would answer ‘none of these’ which leaves the respondee open to a later question regarding the SG gaining all the powers in the event of YES vote.
Option 3
Don’t go for rhetorical, over-guided, unclear questions. We want other people’s opinions not yours/ours.
If theres a NO Vote do you believe that a Westminster Parliament will grant a Scottish Parliament ANY additional powers?
I appreciate that you want to frame questions so you can get as much information as possible and therefor your money’s worth but I teach primary children, and I firmly believe in simplifying something down to the lowest common denominator. If what you want to find out is whether people think we will get more powers then thats what you have to ask – plain and simple!
Unless this is a handpicked poll of intelligent or semi literate people then you simply have to ask a question in words of one syllable and in plain language. The average man/ woman in the street buys the Sun / Daily Record and other tabloid newspapers.. so any questions have to be phrased in a way thats not difficult to understandor ambiguous. When faced with too many options people tend to switch off and go for the first option or whatever requires least thought!
“If theres a NO Vote do you believe that a Westminster Parliament will grant a Scottish Parliament ANY additional powers?”
As noted: that question’s just been asked in another poll.
As the two options stand I could not give an answer to option 1 though I could give one to option 2.
I am not in any position to suggest any alternatives at present, unfortunately I’m not so well endowed with setting polling questions. Whatever the layout of the questions I do think it should raise the prospects of a Tory or Labour government in Westminster whilst having an SNP government or future prospect of such a government in Edinburgh.
I think what is missing from option one is the prospect of a Tory or Labour government in Westminster withdrawing powers from Holyrood. Despite the continual claims that more powers are coming to Scotland you very rarely, if at all, hear about the continual threat of power REMOVAL from Holyrood. Raising the prospect of LOSING powers from Holyrood is just as important as the gaining of any new powers.
“As the two options stand I could not give an answer to option 1”
That’s fine. It’s not a “Which is most likely?” question, it’s a “Do you agree with ANY of these statements?” question. It’s perfectly okay for respondents to answer “No” to all of them.
I think option1 is really long winded – if I were asked that by a pollster in the street I’d take a bit of time to think that one through. Maybe someone who’s been subject to a poll could give us their thoughts ?
However, it’s a good question, maybe it could just be simplified by not mentioning all the political party scenarios, instead just using Holyrood/Westminster and a basic ‘In the event of a No vote do you think Scotland will be granted more powers’
Could be followed up with a simple ‘Would you like to see more powers devolved to Holyrood ?’
I’m interested in the ‘devo-maxers’, who may vote ‘No’ but in return expect to see more powers devolved to Holyrood. What will make them change their minds to a ‘Yes’ vote ?
Will a failure of BT and the unionists to outline Scotland’s position in the event of a ‘No’ vote force some devo-maxers to vote ‘Yes’ instead ?
My suggested questions are a bit basic, but I worry that there is a fine line between getting your money’s worth out the number of questions and making the thing to long winded.
I’ve voted option 3, as I prefer option 1 but (as others have mentioned) it needs a fifth choice of “no extra powers” or words to that effect. Even though it’s mentioned in the question, most people will assume that one of the four presented must be the “right” choice, and pick one of those instead of picking none.
I picked option one because it was less party orientated, option one also allows for multiple selection, doesn’t it? I do like the question being put about above about What do you think the result of a No vote will mean ofr Scottish Parliament powers. On Yougov political polls the format of option one is not unusual, it only looks quite wordy, but it is laid out better by the pollster company. I get paid by Yougov to fill out polls but not very often, some of the political ones can be quite involved so I wouldn’t worry about the wordiness unless it costs more. I know a lot of questions have been suggested, people seem to recognise the need to find out something new, and also to cross reference views. We should be no different from Yes or No campaigns and start formulating the questions on the basis of what we want to find out. Do we want strategy areas – are we then going to campaign in those areas? Do we want to surreptitiously inform – what information are we trying to impart? Are we wanting a set of straight percentages to trumpet across the internet and hopefully the press – what percentages would we like to see? In general I would go with the majority decisions on questions though, great minds think alike (though the camel as a committee design metaphor also fits)
In the event of a No vote in the referendum, you will;
A. Vote in the Scottish election for Scottish only parties.
B. Vote in the Scottish election for UK wide only parties.
C. Not vote in the Scottish elections because they don’t matter.
“In the event of a No vote in the referendum, you will;
A. Vote in the Scottish election for Scottish only parties.
B. Vote in the Scottish election for UK wide only parties.
C. Not vote in the Scottish elections because they don’t matter.”
I don’t even understand that one.
I think option 3 should be
“In the event of a NO vote do you think that a Westminster Parliament will deliver more devolved powers for Scotland?”
‘More powers’ is far too vague. Here’s (nearly) what I suggested on t’other thread and I’ll stick with it:
Would any of the following be more likely to make you vote No to Scottish independence?
A promise by both main parties at Westminster to grant Scotland full powers over her own affairs, apart from defence and foreign policy.
A promise by both main parties at Westminster to give Scotland ‘more powers’ without saying what they are
A statement by either main Westminster party that ‘more powers’ may be granted if Scotland votes No
None of these
“Would any of the following be more likely to make you vote No to Scottish independence?
A promise by both main parties at Westminster to grant Scotland full powers over her own affairs, apart from defence and foreign policy.
A promise by both main parties at Westminster to give Scotland ‘more powers’ without saying what they are
A statement by either main Westminster party that ‘more powers’ may be granted if Scotland votes No
None of these”
That seems incredibly complicated. How do you picture us presenting the results?
This thread is going bewilderingly fast !!
I think the test for Q1 is where the substantial devo max early opinion is going. Devo max isn’t happening so it is now onto confidence into what powers being delivered by Westminster. Firstly, there have been none defined yet by BT altho ‘substantial powers’ as already mentioned above is a good term and should cover devo max in folks’ minds. Secondly, if ‘substantial powers’ is substituted for devo max, then the question be qualified into confidence that a) tory b) labour c) coalition or d) there will be no ‘substantial powers’ devolved.
In the event of a NO vote, who do you trust to look after Scotlands interests..
Cameron
Miliband
Farage
Clegg
None of the above and are praying for a YES
I’d go for option 1 with the responses being graded 1- 4 with 1 being least and 4 most.
@Rev;
A. = Probable independence supporter.
B. = Probable devolution supporter
C. = Definite unionist.
Option 1.
It looks more complicated than it is, but I think it makes sense.
Hardly any one will know what this one nation stuff is about. I also don’t think opt 1 needs a ‘none of the above’, I think sometimes you have gently nudge (if such a thing is possible) off the fence or you’d never get anywhere.
I think there are a lot of people who’re voting no because they don’t want to countenance the idea of breaking up the UK, even although they know – dispassionately – its the right thing to do at this stage.
Rev “I’d say your 10-option scale is much worse in that respect. A four-point scale might work, though.”
I take the point, but would simply say that the slightly larger scale allows for a nuanced reply. However, five or six point scale may allow for a modicum of nuance. However, how to analyse the replies, I can’t remember! I am sure S_S will have advice. The poll is a great idea though.
My objection to option 1 is that it is unlikely that the Scottish Parliament will throw up a one party government again and that with FPTP you cannot discount a UKIP UK government so the choices are too limited.
My objection to option 2 is that we have no assurance that Ed will still be relevant in a year’s time and that only political anoraks will have heard of One Nation Britain let alone know what it means.
“My objection to option 1 is that it is unlikely that the Scottish Parliament will throw up a one party government again “
I originally had “-led” after every party name, as the UK of course currently has a coalition, but it just made the question unwieldy and I’m sure everyone understands the shorthand. As far as most folk are concerned, the 2007 and 2011 Scottish Governments were both “SNP governments”, because Alex Salmond was the First Minister.
Option 1 if you can get UKIP into it somewhere 😀
I can’t help feeling a lot of people are missing the whole point of this exercise.
“Do you think there will be more powers in the event of a No vote?” is a question that has been asked before, and which will be asked again. There is simply no point in asking this, and we might as well save our pennies.
The point of this poll is, presumably, to try and make people think about issues that they usually take for granted. So instead of asking “do you think more powers will be devolved?” you ask them what the likelihood of it happening under various permutations of UK/Scottish governments are. Suddenly, someone who previously said “of course there’ll be more devolution” without giving a thought as to HOW that would happen is forced to face the reality that there isn’t a single permutation of UK/Scottish governments that will lead to more devolution.
Incidentally, if folk think question 1 is too long-winded, they’ve obviously not done a YouGov poll before! It’s a perfectly normal length. If the questions are too short, we get bugger all value out of asking them. Might as well just ask “will you be voting Yes?” ten times.
What Doug just said.
In the event of a “No” vote, do you believe that a future Westminster government* will:
a) devolve more powers to the Scottish Government
b) remove some of the powers already devolved to the Scottish Government
c) leave things as they are
d) scrap devolution altogether
* If finances and space allow, this question could be sub-divided to insert the name of each main party here.
Option One.
However it needs another 2 options. i.e. none of the above, and powers would be taken away.
Thought 1 was too long, I’d go for something which some others have also suggested in various forms:
In the event of a NO vote do you believe:
1. The UK Government will devolve more powers to the Scottish Government.
2. The UK Government will not devolve any more powers to the Scottish Government.
3. The UK Government will seek to remove already devolved powers from the Scottish Government.
I would have to agree with those who have stated previously that, as option 1 stands, there’s a likelihood of some respondents ticking one of the boxes just because they think they’re expected to, despite it being made clear that it’s not necessary to tick any box.
I can also see where Typical Scot is coming from if it’s a phone poll that’s being prepared, in which case the 4 answers just seem a wee bit long-winded, with too many variables in terms of Westminster govt, Holyrood govt, and a No vote, involved.
As a way of being proactive rather than dismissive of the options already given, I’d be more inclined to go with something like:
In the result of a NO vote, which of the following UK governments do you think would give greater powers to the Scottish Parliament?
a) Conservative majority
b) Conservative / Lib Dem coalition
c) Labour majority
d) Labour / Lib Dem coalition
e) None of the above
“In the result of a NO vote, which of the following UK governments do you think would give greater powers to the Scottish Parliament?”
That’s also easily misunderstood as “Which one would give the most?” rather than “Would any of them give any at all?”
Could one of the questions differentiate between powers and accountabilities. You have already pointed out in one of your posts that more powers aren’t on offer just more accountability. This would raise awareness that more powers are pie in the sky.
So could a precursor statement home in on this fact first and then use it as a basis for the question.
“Could one of the questions differentiate between powers and accountabilities.”
This is something I’ve been thinking about, but I haven’t come up with a good way of putting it as a question yet.
Option 1 is too complicated. I don’t fully understand Option 2.
For the reasons stated by HeatherMcLean, I’m with tartanfever:
‘In the event of a No vote do you think Scotland will be granted more powers’
followed up with a simple ‘Would you like to see more powers devolved to Holyrood?’
I also like Bunter‘s
In the event of a NO vote, who do you trust [most] to look after Scotland’s interests:
Cameron
Miliband
Farage
Clegg
“followed up with a simple ‘Would you like to see more powers devolved to Holyrood?’”
Again, a waste of our money. We know the answer – an overwhelming majority want more powers one way or another.
When faced with too many options people tend to switch off and go for the first option or whatever requires least thought!
Have to say I am with you Heather, particularly if it’s a telephone poll.
I presume this poll will get responses from 1000 people, statistically weighted for the demographic and ‘bundled with other surveys? This is important as we need to think about how the results inform readers etc not how it influences the respondees.
“I presume this poll will get responses from 1000 people, statistically weighted for the demographic”
Yes.
“and ‘bundled with other surveys”
No idea.
Stu, agree with several other posters that option 1 seems long winded and open to confusion and irritation among the sample audience. Too many options and combinations for people for people to take in and I can see the most likely response would be – can you “read me those again”.
To get an overall impression of the likelihood of “more powers” for Holyrood in the event of a No – why not split them in two with question 1 for the Lib / Cons and question 2 for Labour
Question 1
Do you believe that in the event of a NO vote next year, that the Westminster Coalition government parties ( Lib / Con ) are more or less likely to offer the Scottish Parliament additional powers
The Conservatives – Likely to offer more powers / Unlikely to offer more powers
Don’t Know
The Liberal Democrats – Likely to offer more powers / Unlikely to offer more
powers / Don’t Know
The second question is more focused on Labour and the “more powers” guff from Lamont. It could read like
Question 2
Much is made by the Labour Party of their one nation approach to policy – does this suggest to you that in the event of a majority Labour government after the 2015 UK General Election with Ed Miliband as Prime Minister that
(a) (b) (c)
“Stu, agree with several other posters that option 1 seems long winded and open to confusion and irritation among the sample audience.”
It would be if you were asking people to think about it all at once. But the point is that it’s four separate questions.
I like dougthedug’s format
Rev. Stuart, when I worked for a polling company doing the interviews, the survey had many subjects, also as this was face to face and the same applies for other polls you have to find people who are willing. Easy to skew a poll if it has a narrow interest.
Rev, Are you still happy that you put this idea to your followers?!.
just illustrate how difficult it is to agree on short, sharp, and direct questions.
@Doug;
you ask them what the likelihood of it happening under various permutations of UK/Scottish governments are. Suddenly, someone who previously said “of course there’ll be more devolution” without giving a thought as to HOW that would happen is forced to face the reality that there isn’t a single permutation of UK/Scottish governments that will lead to more devolution.
How does any of the four answers to 1 let you know that the reader of the question realizes that there is no permutation?
“How about asking the referendum question?”
Waste of time and money. It’ll just have been asked.
I think that any poll which does not begin with the Referendum Question will fail to produce value for money. The meat of what you need to know is in the cross-tabs. You have to know which of your pollees are No-voters before you can identify the issues which distinguish them from already-Yes voters.
I would suggest that Q1 is THE question;
that Q2 (whatever it is) addresses an aspect of the post-YES scenario;
and that only then do you introduce a question beginning:
“In the event of a No vote ….”
How about something along the lines of:
“In the event of a no vote, do you think further powers will be devolved to Scotland, and if so, under what circumstances?”
– Current coalition govt. will introduce devolution bill
– Labour will win the next general election and introduce a devolution bill regardless of what party is in government in Scotland
– Labour will win the next general election and introduce a devolution bill if Labour form the next Scottish government
– No further powers will be devolved to the Scottish government, but none of the Scottish government’s current powers will be returned to Westminster
– Powers devolved to the Scottish government will be returned to Westminster
OK, Doug/Rev
Maybe the “trick” will be to combine the multi-option Q1 with a ‘qualitative’ scale, e.g. Very Likely, Possible. unlikely, never – or something. Actual wording is debatable. So what would these answers give? Would only these four options get the breadth of ‘thinking’ you want to stimulate in respondents? What about a Tory/UKIP coalition, or a further Toby/LibDem, of Lab/LibDem coalition? Would all these options count as one question, or six/seven etc?
Doug: Yes I have taken a YouGov poll, though not recently. You do get some convoluted questions, which I have to say DO irritate me, but maybe that’s just me!
In the event of a No vote in the independence referendum, do you believe the Westminster Uk governments will do the following things in Scotland.
Please answer yes, or no to each suggestion.
1. the UK Gov will take notice of the polls showing the majority of Scots don’t want weapons of mass destruction in Scotland and begin to make plans to re-locate them, Y or N
2. The UK gov will take notice of the needs of Scotland and abolish the airport duty. Y or N
3. The UK gov will take notice of the polls showing the large majority of Scots who say they think a percentage of Scotland’s oil should be given for projects in Scotland. Y or N
4. The Uk gov wil do none of the above and do what the polls show the majority of middle England voters want. Y or N.
That’ll get people thinking !
“Please answer yes, or no to each suggestion.”
Even my attention had wandered off by the end of Q2, and I’m a politics nerd. I don’t really understand what airport duty is about.
Rev,
I went for option 2 because I felt option 1 is too long winded and some folks will have switched off by the time the options were read out.
In hindsight I would have plumped for option 3 with the following question.
Do you trust any of the 3 Westminster parties to deliver more powers for Scotland should we vote No in next years referendum?
If you’re looking to use up excess lolly, I could poll some Slovaks and Czechs on my travels. Probably less scientifically than your fancy pants people though.
Alabaman:
Rev, Are you still happy that you put this idea to your followers?!.just illustrate how difficult it is to agree on short, sharp, and direct questions.
This process certainly makes you appreciate the referendum question arrived at by the Scottish government more highly.
“Are you still happy that you put this idea to your followers?!”
Heh. The thing several people said yesterday about just letting me get on with it myself is suddenly looking more attractive 😉
But seriously, it’s good to thrash everything out and see if we can all manage to be clear on what we’re trying to achieve here.
Option 1.
Options 3:
The Conservative Party, Labour and the Liberal Democrats have all talked about further devolution if the Scots vote No to independence. In this event, which of the following options do you consider most likely?
Some sort of Devo-Max will be implemented, which means that most taxes will be raised by the Scottish Parliament in Scotland, and almost all policy areas apart from foreign affairs and the military will be devolved to Scotland.
A few minor policy areas will be devolved to Scotland as a token gesture, but at the end of the day Westminster will not want to see any significant powers move north of the border.
Devolution will be rolled back because the threat of independence will have disappeared, and this in turn will remove the political need to support devolution.
How about.
In the event of a no vote do you think the 533 MPs that represent English constituencies would be willing to vote for Scotland to receive more powers.
I’m having fun. Please alert me if there is too much thinking and it is becoming annoying. I won’t know myself.
Alabaman:Rev, Are you still happy that you put this idea to your followers?!.
Readers or donors, please – Stu’s not the effing pope! ;o)
I agree with James Kay, unless you ask THE question how can you cross-tab the subordinate answers?
Option 1, but somehow add in that no extra powers are being offered before the vote.
Although no extra powers are being offered by any parties, and they are asking you to trust them, in the event of a NO vote, which…etc, etc. Something like that, with ‘none of the above added’.
I’ve gone with option 1 – with the caveat that I think there should be an option for No UK Government would be willing to give more powers to a Scottish Government.
By all means put me in my place, but my brain starts to melt when questions are not simple and straight to the point, and my brain did melt slightly reading these , and for what it is worth I think there may a few more people than me with easily melting brains.
“By all means put me in my place, but my brain starts to melt when questions are not simple and straight to the point, and my brain did melt slightly reading these”
This is why we’re having the discussion, and why I put Option 2 in. But it’s also no good having a simpler question if it doesn’t ask the thing we want it to ask.
Based on Doug’s explanation of what we’re trying to achieve here, I’ll opt for 1 + caveat;
5. You can’t square that circle. (words to that effect)
OK, I clicked Option 3 – but merely to give comments and suggest tweaks.
Option 1 is a bit wordy, and I think you maybe need to qualify the “more powers” phrase to suggest something more significant eg greater financial powers/fiscal autonomy, powers over more areas like broadcasting/social welfare. Maybe the word ‘significant’ will suffice. Another question might prompt different areas where more powers are desired.
Option 2 -I was going to suggest Labour instead of Ed Milliband, but I’ve changed my mind – leaving it as it is makes it out to be just his idea. However it is as likely, if not more, that it will be a Tory govt or renewed coalition, so I doubt the premise of the question.
That’s my tuppenceworth. I leave it to your respected discretion
Like some people here, I initially thought that option 1 was too long winded. However, looking at it again I don’t think it is. The only problem I have with it is that the most likely outcome would be “– A Labour UK government would be willing to give more powers to a Labour Scottish Government.” would be the most popular choice. This could then be seized upon by BT who would then say with the help of the MSM that the only way to get additional powers is to vote for Labour at UK GE and vote for Labour at Scottish elections, and what a disaster that would be!!
“We want to put a question that will make people really think about the prospects of extra powers for the Scottish Parliament in the event of a No vote. Which of these do you think is the best way of wording it?”
I don’t think the question proposed is any good. It is too ‘positive’ a point for an Independence campaign to put forward to people who are currently not well informed about Independence. People will answer the questions as if they were about Devolution v Independence. And we already know the answer to that. Also, most informed Independistas are very sceptical that we will get much, if any, increased powers, although we might get increased responsibilities. So I don’t see the point.
There were a small number of far better questions proposed yesterday and the day before by many different people when the Poll was first mooted. I would suggest that a list of these is drawn up so we can see all the possible questions together before making a choice(s).
Having said that, my views on Option 1 or Option 2 are as follows. #1 is too complicated and asks the same question 4 times and the answers we receive will be unlikely to be of much use to the YES campaign. #2 brings in the Labour Party and Milliband and by implication the Bitter mob giving them unneccessary credibility.
In the event of a NO vote, do you believe that a Westminster Labour government will grant further devolution for Scotland?
In the event of a NO vote, do you believe that a Westminster Conservative government will grant further devolution for Scotland?
In the event of a NO vote, do you believe that a Westminster Coalition government involving Lib Dems or UKIP, will grant further devolution for Scotland?
This puts emphasis on Westminster regardless of who runs it. Westminster being the bogeyman and thus all parties guilty by association. I’ve also deliberately replaced Scottish Government with Scotland to aim affect to the Scottish people, the Scottish Government and Scottish people become one and all.
I think you have to make it clear that more devolution for Scotland is entirely in the power of the UK parliament. What the Scots think or want will not determine what that might or might not be.
I am also a little bit worried about introducing the possibility that we think Scotland might vote NO.
I would prefer us to be polling about what we think an independent Scotland could and should do
“I would prefer us to be polling about what we think an independent Scotland could and should do”
Remember we have nine more questions.
Do you think Scotland will vote yes for independence in 2014. If not ,why not?
I dont get it. The Rev has built a better mousetrap with hundreds of thousands of viewers and now wants to spend £360 to possibly influence some of an audience of 1000 at most to consider what will happen after a No vote. I thought the object of a poll was to find out what Joe Public thinks and if possible why. Armed with these answers then Wings can be tailored to fill the gaps in JP’s knowledge. If the poll is to be propaganda better to leave it to the Yes campaign.
I still think it useful to ask what people think the result will be and what they think will happen if there is a No vote particularly when you get the cross tab that show what those that think it will be a huge No think will happen as against those that think it will be a bare majority for No etc.
“an audience of 1000”
Plus all the people who’ll read the results, which will be a significantly higher number.
To finish my comments above, I probably would go for Option 1 if push comes to shove – it at least covers more bases as to future government configurations
Option One is missing an answer.
“No UK Government would be willing to give the Scottish Government any more powers.”
Atypical_Scot – “How does any of the four answers to 1 let you know that the reader of the question realizes that there is no permutation?”
Well, suppose the result is 5%, 10%, 1% and 40%. That tells you that not even a Labour/Labour permutation has more than 40% thinking it’ll result in more powers. And whoever is reading the poll results says “oh, I’d never actually thought about it that way before. So I’d have to vote for Johann Lamont to be First Minister to stand even a 40% chance of getting more powers? No thanks!”
That’s another thing folk have to keep in mind here. The real audience we’re aiming at here isn’t the people being asked – it’s the people reading the results. So if we can get a question that can basically be surmised as showing that people don’t think there is any chance of power being devolved after a No vote, then we’re onto a winner.
That’s why a question that reminds people that the only person standing between the Tories and another 5 years in office is Ed Miliband is definitely worth asking, especially in light of recent polling about his popularity.
Do you think Scotland will vote yes for independence in 2014. If not ,why not?
Give some ooptions in the event of a no vote what extra powers do you think Westminster will grant the Scottish parliament.
After a tiring 10 hour shift at work, my brain has melted.
I’ll come back tomorrow and see what others have decided. 🙂
– Do you believe that the Westminster Government would grant Scotland more powers if Scotland votes No in the Independence referendum?
@Doug Daniel;
Explained and understood, cheers. Processed, agree, that works.
Do you trust any UK government to give more powers to the Scottish Parliament if there is a No vote
How about a slight variation on option 1 which does not mention the party in power in Holyrood but gives more variations for the party/parties in power in Westminster e.g.
In the event of a No vote in the referendum, which, if any, of these statements do you agree with? (You may tick more than one answer.)
– A Conservative UK government would be willing to give more powers to the Scottish Government.
– A Conservative/UKIP UK government would be willing to give more powers to the Scottish Government.
– A Labour UK government would be willing to give more powers to the Scottish Government.
– A Labour/Lib Dem UK government would be willing to give more powers to the Scottish Government.
Reading Doug’s explanation makes a lot of sense. I wasn’t thinking about the effects of publishing the poll when I put my point forward. It’s the way the results can be presented to an audience that can be a highly effective tool. I simply hadn’t considered that. Thanks Doug.
So on that note, I’m happy to resign from this thread, there are a lot more savvy people out there than me and I’m happy to take their guidance.
What is it we’re trying to get from asking this question?
Is it to achieve this sort of headline: “Most Scots believe a NO vote means NO MORE POWERS” ?
Or is there something you had in mind that could be achieved by knowing the party breakdown results like you have in Option 1? What story do we want to tell based on the results?
How about…..
“Given that most Scots favour more powers to the Scottish Parliament, do you believe that a NO vote in the referendum would achieve this?”
A) Definitely Not
B) Probably Not
C) Probably
D) Definitely
“Given that most Scots favour more powers to the Scottish Parliament, do you believe that a NO vote in the referendum would achieve this?”
As noted before, that’s basically the exact question the SNP just asked via YouGov, so we already know the answer and there’s no point re-asking it. We want something that makes people really think about the answer, and one way of doing that is asking them how it would come about in reality.
Option 1 needs to allow for the responses
I believe a conservative government would seek to remove powers…..etc.
In the event of a “no” vote in the independence referendum, which of the following scenarios is more likely:
1. The Scotland parliament will receive more powers from the uk government within the next 15 years.
The Scottish parliament will receive more powers from the uk government after at least 15 years.
The Scottish parliament will receive no additional powers from the uk government.
The Scottish parliament will relinquish existing powers to the uk government.
@Doug Daniel;
However, The fourth option is the most logical answer no matter what the readers preference as it’s the only one that consists of the same party which is more likely of collaboration. Just thinking, still.
@ Doug Daniel
“That’s another thing folk have to keep in mind here. The real audience we’re aiming at here isn’t the people being asked – it’s the people reading the results.”
This is a very important point and given some of the question ideas being floated I’m not sure folk are getting that.
In the event of a No vote in the referendum, which of these combinations would result in more powers being devolved to Scotland?
– A Conservative government in Westminster and an SNP government in Scotland
– A Conservative government in Westminster and a Labour government in Scotland
– A Labour government in Westminster and an SNP government in Scotland
– A Labour government in Westminster and a Labour government in Scotland
– None of the above
Jiggsboro
If this is a face to face poll or a telephone one, I would venture that by the time the pollster arrived at reading the third option the first one would be forgotten, et seq.
“In the event of a No vote in the referendum, which of these combinations would result in more powers being devolved to Scotland?”
The problem with that, as noted before, is that you’re asking people to hold all four scenarios in their heads at once and then rank them, which is fine for the likes of us who think about that sort of thing frequently and are familiar with the principle, but is a big ask if you’ve just dropped it on someone. The way I phrased it makes it four simple short questions which are addressed individually in sequence.
(We get much more information that way too. Under yours, what if we get 33% option 5, 32% option 4, 19% option 1 and 16% option 3? What’s the snappy soundbite to take away from that?)
Option 3. In the event of a No vote what would be your constitutional preference
a. Devo Max (fiscal independence)
b. Status quo (no more devolved powers)
c. Dissolution of the Scottish parliament (close Holyrood)
“Option 3. In the event of a No vote what would be your constitutional preference”
Already been asked in lots of polls which offered it as a four-way choice including independence.
The first one invites an answer where none may be preferred.
“The first one invites an answer where none may be preferred.”
Which is absolutely fine with us.
Do you think in the event of a no vote ?
1. Scotland will stay the same?
2.Holyrood will be given more powers?
3.powers will be taken away from Holyrood?
after Q1 interviewee rolls eyes
After Q2 interviewee tuts loudly
After Q3 interviewee nods Frequently
Molly
Something like that
with a fourth question
Do you think that would be a good thing
“Do you think Scotland will vote yes for independence in 2014. If not ,why not?”
Not every Yes voter thinks we’ll win, whereas every No voter thinks they’ll win. That question would just give the No campaign a massive gift, I reckon.
Stu at the risk of pissing you off can I suggest that deciding the questions this way will lead to you disappearing up your own arsehole! I would suggest you propose the purpose of the research ie what unanswered questions you’d like to address in broad terms, get brosd agreement from your ‘sponsors’ and then discuss with a research professional who will help you formulate the specific questions. You cannot create a questionnaire this way. I’m not making this up I’ve conducted lots of research in my career. And before anyone has a go I’m not trying to be a smartarse!
“You cannot create a questionnaire this way”
We’re not going to be doing this for every question.
Imagine Scotland was already independent and we were about to have a referendum on whether to join a union with England. Would you vote: yes / no
“Imagine Scotland was already independent and we were about to have a referendum on whether to join a union with England. Would you vote: yes / no”
Some variant of that will be going in. But one thing at a time, eh?
Hmm. I really think you need to ask two questions.
Labour leader Ed Miliband has said he wants to build a “one nation Britain”. In the event of No vote in the Scottish independence referendum, which of these do you think is most likely to happen?
– A Labour UK government would give more powers to an SNP Scottish Government.
– A Labour UK government would give more powers to a Labour Scottish Government.
– A Labour UK government would be reluctant to transfer more powers to to Scotland
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson was elected on a platform of no more powers for Scotland, but has subsequently changed her mind. In the event of No vote in the Scottish independence referendum, which of these do you think is most likely to happen?
– A Conservative UK government would give more powers to an SNP Scottish Government.
– A Conservative UK government would give more powers to a Labour Scottish Government.
– A Conservative UK government would be reluctant to transfer more powers to to Scotland
“which of these do you think is most likely to happen?
– A Labour UK government would give more powers to an SNP Scottish Government.
– A Labour UK government would give more powers to a Labour Scottish Government.
– A Labour UK government would be reluctant to transfer more powers to to Scotland”
That doesn’t work, because you’re not asking people what they think about more powers, you’re asking them who’s going to win the next elections, then with the third option you ask them a completely different question.
I am with Dcanmore
In the event of a NO vote, do you believe that a Westminster Labour government will grant further devolution for Scotland? Yes/No In the event of a NO vote, do you believe that a Westminster Conservative government will grant further devolution for Scotland? Yes/No In the event of a NO vote, do you believe that a Westminster Coalition government involving Lib Dems or UKIP, will grant further devolution for Scotland?
Yes/no
Clear concise questions that are easily understood, people who are not that interested in politics will not take the time to try and understand the question asked. was getting bored myself at the questions asked
A 2 part question with both parts allowing No as an answer.
“Given that most Scots favour more powers to the Scottish Parliament, do you believe that a NO vote in the referendum would achieve this…i) while under a Tory led Westminster Government? [YES / NO]
ii) while under a Labour led Westminster Government? [YES / NO]
In the event of a NO vote in Scotland’s referendum do you believe that the British Government will:
1. Increase the existing powers of the Scottish Government.
2. Allow the Scottish Government to maintain its present existing powers with the proviso that no further devolution of power will be given to the Scottish Government.
3. Reduce the existing powers of the Scottish Government and transfer several powers back to Westminster control.
“However, The fourth option is the most logical answer no matter what the readers preference as it’s the only one that consists of the same party which is more likely of collaboration. Just thinking, still.”
Oh aye, it’s the most logical one, which is one reason why it would get a higher percentage than the others. But it still invites the person being polled (and the person reading the results) to consider that the only way they stand even a chance of Scotland getting more powers is if Miliband wins the 2015 election, and that they then have to vote for Johann Lamont to become First Minister of Scotland.
Im cant get past the notion that the UK (Eng/Wales et al), will veto any extra powers for Scotland if we reject the chance of self governance.
Thus,
In the event of a No Vote which of these statements do you agree with most:
1. The rest of the UK will happily vote yes in a Devo-Max Referendum in 2016 to restore more powers to the Scottish Parliament.
2. The rest of the UK will overwellingly reject us a spongers and over subsidised and vote No to more powers.
3. There wont be a Devo-Max Referendum and Westminster is going to destroy Scotland chances of ever attempting independence again.
Yep Rev Stu, this is getting confusing, I say get a few folk who really know this stuff and run with what you like, only thing I think is keep it short and sweet, if the guys I work with are anything to go by, they would be thinking of going tae the pub by the time you got throuthe some of the lengthier question/ opthing ones.
The SNP asked how convincing or unconvincing the case for more powers was a few months ago (of course it got practically no media coverage). 47& said the case was unconvincing and 33% convincing. Since a poll of this kind has been carried out recently, I don’t believe asking it will be very useful.
However, I think a good survey question would be to ask how convincing or unconvincing the Labour Parties claims of being left wing are.
I think we are in danger of designing a camel when a racehorse is what is wanted
The question should make it clear that in the event of a NO vote, there is a very serious risk that, far from gaining more powers, we could lose some or all of the ones we have now !
We’re not going to be doing this for every question.
Phew. Relief. This is all a bit of a specialist art form.
If you are going to ask question about the Westminster parties intentions about devolution you could ask the following;
Which party would you trust in delivering more powers to the Scottish parliament
a. Labour
b. Liberal Democrats
c. Conservatives
d. None of the above
Which party leader would you trust in delivering more powers to the Scottish parliament
a. Ed Miliband
b. Nick Clegg
c. David Cameron
d. None of the above
@Doug;
The response will be a dissemination of 100%, therefore, (Probably wrongly I admit but analyzing the probabilities of the four, would we not get 1%, 1%, 1% and 97% respectively?
By proxy, have we given ourselves an answer that can only be (honestly) construed as if we are unsure of the future of an independent Scotland – vote Labour?
If you are wanting headlines then surely something along the lines of
If Scotland votes No how many English MPs will need to agree to any further powers being devolved to Scotland? 59, 267, 325, 533, 650, It’ll never happen
I think that an independent poll by ‘Wings’ is a great idea. BUT….. as someone who worked in Market Research for many years, I had to vote Option 3.
I know the cost is high at £360.00 a question, but if the wrong type of questions are asked, then you are throwing good money away.
The main benefit of Market Research is trends. So you need to be thinking of at least 2 surveys, preferably 3 over the next year and you need to ask primarily the same questions in each. If you go for say 7 Questions, 5 or 6 need to be constant and 1 or 2 topical.
To get the interest of the ‘meeja’ you need have a section on ‘voting intentions’, a section on ‘the message getting through to the voters’ and lastly a ‘topical’ or ‘fun’ section.
The problem with your Options I and 2 is that they have been written by ‘Politcos’ for ‘Politicos’.
If you wanted to e-mail me Stu, I would be happy to help.
For what it’s worth my questions would be:
SECTION 1 VOTING INTENTIONS
1. Are you Registered to Vote in the Scottish Independence Referendum?
a) Yes
b) No
c) Don’t Know
TYPICAL HEADLINES – Only X% of under 18’s Registered To Vote in the Referendum
2. How likely are you to vote in the Referendum?
a) Definitely
b) Probably
c) Probably Not
d) Definitely Not
e) Don’t Know
3) ONLY FOR THOSE WHO ANSWERED a) or b) in QUESTION 2 ABOVE –
How do you intend to vote in the Referendum
a) Yes, Scotland should be an Independent Country
b) No, Scotland should NOT be an Independent country
c) I’ve still to make up my mind.
SECTION 2 – THE MESSAGE
4) How much oil do you think is still left in the North Sea?
a) Less than a quarter
b) At least half
c) More than three quarters
d) Don’t Know
5) Do you think that, in terms of the money the Scottish Government get from London,
a) Scotland pays more in taxes than it gets back
b) Scotland gets more back than it pays in taxes
c) Don’t Know
6) Who do you think is more likely to get rid of the ‘Bedroom Tax’
a) Labour in London
b) Conservatives/Lib Dems in London
c) An independent Scottish Government
d) Don’t know
SECTION 3 –
7. Who is head of the Better Together campaign to stop Scotland voting for Independence
a) Alastair Campbell
b) David Cameron
c) Alastair Darling
d) Blair McDougall
e) Blair Gowrie
f) Don’t Know
etc etc.
Sorry for being long winded -especially in my first post!
“For what it’s worth my questions would be:”
I think you’ve misunderstood our purpose. We’re not trying to set up a rival to YouGov and Ipsos MORI and the rest here. The original stated objective was to ask some questions which AREN’T asked by existing polls. So asking people if they’re Yes, No or Don’t Know or Not Going To Vote is pointless, because those questions get asked all the time.
We also don’t care how much oil people think is in the North Sea, because the key issue is who gets the money, however much it is or isn’t. (And in any case the only honest answer anyone could give to that question is [d] don’t know – including oil industry professionals, let alone your average poll respondent.)
Your question 6 isn’t bad, though 😀
Here’s the thing folks. People obviously DO think there will be more powers in the event of a No vote, otherwise Yes would already be miles in front in the current polling. So if that’s all we ask, we’re not going to find out anything we don’t already know.
But it doesn’t matter what the public think in an abstract sense, because it’s political parties who will decide it. That’s why we have to highlight the fact that you would need two very shit leaders to win their elections in order to even stand a chance of getting more powers.
Oh, and another possibility on this topic but giving a different result…
“If, after a No vote in the Referendum, the Scottish Parliament is given no further powers by Westminster, would you be more likely to vote YES in a future Referendum?”
A majority responding Yes to this will tell you what could be achieved if we can get the message across that no further powers are going to be available.
you could ask what “more powers” means to people, give them a list of things that it’s often interpreted to mean and find out what people are actually interpreting it to mean. Though, to do that you’d have to check what powers people already thought were devolved, or possibly put them in the list and see who doesn’t know they are already…. Gosh this is difficult.
Yougov and marketing people often have a question with a number of ‘brands’ where you are asked which are high quality for example. You could have a full list of the powers of a fully independent country, and ask A) which ones are already devolved – B) which ones would you expect to be in the ‘more powers’ often talked about in the press – C) which ones would you want Holyrood to control.
I would make it clear that the list is a list of the powers of a fully independent country in the description to the question, it would then be easy to say X% want the powers of a fully independent country, and what Y% of people wanted what powers reserved. That would be an area to campaign on to show that those areas can be controlled successfully in an independent Scotland, and hopefully then some of that Y% (which because the poll is demographic can sort of be extrapolated throughout the population) will move to Yes. Some of them won’t because that’s just the way people are – horse/water/drink.
You’d also have a list of powers and a % who want them, to begin asking hard questions anytime BT used the jam tomorrow argument.
“Imagine Scotland was already independent and we were about to have a referendum on whether to join a union with England. Would you vote: yes / no”
Some variant of that will be going in. But one thing at a time, eh?
Hurrah, a question I can DEFINITELY answer! 😆
Atypical_Scot – no, because the question is asking if you think ANY of them are likely. At least a third of the respondents (definite Yes voters) will almost certainly “tick” none of them (or whatever the vocal version of a tick is).
Technically, each respondent could say all four are likely, which would be 400% if you add them up, which is why adding them up doesn’t really work. But as Stu has said somewhere, it’s really just a sneaky way of asking four separate questions – so each one is out of 100%.
(That’s why I personally prefer a way of recording “none of them”…)
“(That’s why I personally prefer a way of recording “none of them”…)”
Think about it. For reasons already explored, you can’t put that option at the end. So you put it at the start.
Let’s say our respondent rejects it. Now he HAS to pick one of the other options to say “Yes” to, or he feels a fool, because he’s rejected the idea that none of them will, so logically it must be the case that (at least) one of them will. Bingo, we’ve just skewed the poll, and worse, we’ve skewed it AGAINST ourselves.
(Also, our respondent feels he’s been tricked, and is now unhappy for the rest of the poll.)
Q1 – Should a country be responsible for all its own Taxes, Benefits, Welfare, Defence, Foreign Affairs, debt and borrowing requirements without outside interference?
1) Yes, a country should control its own affairs without outside interference
2) No, a country must consider the needs of other countries before making decisions
Q2 – Is Scotland a Country?
1) Yes, Scotland is a Country
2) No, Scotland is merely a region of the UK
Q3 – In 2014 Scotland will be asked to vote in favour of, or against independence. Should Scotland vote to stay within the Union, thereby removing the threat of independence from Westminster, which of the following statements do you believe to be accurate:
1) Further Powers shall be devolved to the Scottish Parliament by Westminster
2) No further powers shall be devolved to the Scottish Parliament by Westminster
3) Westminster will try to re-reserve some powers from the Scottish Parliament
As a previous poster said it needs to be simple, even some of my colleagues at sea in well paid “educated”jobs are struggling with the wider picture . Yet when I asked a Chief Engineer “do you really believe that were going to get more powers if we vote No”, he stared blankly into space for a minute and said “Thats highly unlikely”, and another undecided is voting Yes.
Me: “The first one invites an answer where none may be preferred.”
Rev “Which is absolutely fine with us.”
My point is that people may feel obliged to support one of the answers when they do not i.e. it’s not clear that “none of the above” is an option.
Butch McCassidy (above) may be able to assist/advise.
“My point is that people may feel obliged to support one of the answers when they do not”
It’s phrased to avoid that. We can’t legislate for every single possibility of misunderstanding, we have to trust the polling company to do its job.
Oh and if you run out of funds to complete it Rev, just ask again and I’m sure we will all see what we can do, no point doing this thing half arsed excuse the language but were in baw deep now.
Option #3, with Scotland controlling her own resources – the people took to the streets in protest in 1707 and that’s what will happen if there’s a “NO” vote 🙁
Whatever the result of the vote there *will* be more powers, thanks to the Calman Commission. Now these powers consist of airgun licensing and a confusing and ultimately unworkable partial base rate income tax collection. But they are still a change to the current devolution arrangement.
“Whatever the result of the vote there *will* be more powers”
I think people understand that “more powers” in context means “more than are already in the pipeline”.
Yet when I asked a Chief Engineer “do you really believe that were going to get more powers if we vote No”,
Yup. Keep it straight. Simply ‘do you believe the UK government..more powers..na na na?’
A follow up could be asked, if the respondent (actually) thought there would be more powers, about which parties they think would go for it (in some imaginary universe where they UK gov was all democratic and stuff).
.
Q4 – Using figures from the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland report (GERS) 2011-2012, it can be seen that Scotland generates 9.9% of total UK Tax Revenues yet receives only 9.3% of UK spending. Which of the following statements would you agree with should Scotland vote for independence?
1) Scotland’s finances shall be better off after independence
2) Scotland’s finances shall be neither better or worse off after independence
3) Scotland’s finances shall be worse off after independence
Q5 – Under the Barnett Formula Scotland gets allocated a Block Grant based on a percentage of government spending in England. With recent cuts and privatisations in English services being voted for by Westminster, the Scottish Block Grant is set to be cut substantially over the coming years. Which of the following statements do you agree with?
1) Cuts to the Block Grant will inevitably lead to reductions or privatisations in government services
2) Cuts to the Block Grant will make no difference to current government services
3) Cuts to the Block Grant will improve services by promoting efficiency
“Q4 – Using figures from the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland report…”
Dude! We’ve got enough to be dealing with in this thread with ONE question!
😀
Wake me up when the questions are decided. It’s not that I’m not interested, but there are far too many people with far too many off-the-wall ideas, and I don’t have the intellectual free time for a melee like this.
“Wake me up when the questions are decided. It’s not that I’m not interested, but there are far too many people with far too many off-the-wall ideas, and I don’t have the intellectual free time for a melee like this.”
I must admit, my heid is nipping now. I’m off to watch some Mock The Week repeats 😀
If Scots vote YES will an independent Scotland be
a. More prosperous
b. Less prosperous
c. Unchanged
What about a simple question to get to the bottom of the electorate’s trust in our UK MPs / Political Parties.
“Do you seriously believe that any potential future Westminster Government will devolve more powers to Scotland following a ‘No’ vote?
It may do one of two things, either;
1 – highlight to people before the answer the question the sheer absurdity of the premise.
2 – also then define the percentage of the electorate that do trust the Westminster machine despite their recent and historical lapses of honesty.
The word ‘seriously’ may be slightly leading, and even slightly assertive / aggressive. But if it gets into the media, it may help highlight how devo-upgrade in any form is not on the table.
So many people still think it is an option, even though it has long been relegated to the realms of fantasy.
(‘do you honestly believe’ might be a suitable alternative)
Keep at it guys.
link to en.wikipedia.org
(that’s unfair – I haven’t a scooby what constitutes a good phrasing of this question).
maybe we should ask subo what she thinks? 🙂
I’d go option 3 with Pete’s suggestion –
Please tick ONE OF the following:
“I will vote No in the hope that Hollyrood gains more power, but within the UK”.
“I will vote No in the hope that Hollyroods powers are reduced”.
“I will vote No but want Hollyrood to stay the same”.
“I will vote Yes”.
Simple and gets to the bones – lots of the general public won’t have a scoobie about “One Nation”
Rev, you are one brave dude for throwing this out there for everyone to chuck there tuppence worth in and trusting it wont go completely off the rails.
I think I understand where you are coming from with Option 1.
The danger is that people think they have to pick one, or they are looking for a ‘none of the above’ option.
Maybe the wording needs to looks something like this :
In the event of a No vote in the referendum do you think– A Conservative UK government would be willing to give more powers to a Labour Scottish Government.
do you think– A Conservative UK government would be willing to give more powers to an SNP Scottish Government.
do you think– A Labour UK government would be willing to give more powers to an SNP Scottish Government.
do you think – A Labour UK government would be willing to give more powers to a Labour Scottish Government.
Which gives us the headline we want : there is NO scenario where the majority think we will get more powers with a NO vote.
You would probably have to pay millions for this good a contribution of positive, well meaning collective assembly of brilliantnessnessness.
Apologies ‘their’ not ‘there’
Q1 – list out extra powers as a wish list for the interviewee to tick yes or no.
Q2 – In the event of a No vote are any of these extra powers likely to be passed to Scotland?
Option 1 is not going to tell you anything because introducing the political parties into the questions will inevitably split the votes along party lines, and in that event it will be skewed.
Both options also suffer from having vague statements like “more powers”, “more scope”, “less scope” and “own way”, try and steer clear of that as it makes analysis of the results difficult as people interpret answers differently.
I agree with Butch McCassidy, you need the questions and the answers to be short and specific giving definitive answers. Also simplicity enables a whole range of people to understand the question. As I also have some experience in this area, mostly with analysis that creating questions, I think you should take advice from those with most market research experience as writing questions is undeniably difficult and those with no experience in creating such questions dont understand that it is a complex process even when the question and answers end up quite simple.
For instance, if you dont give people a whole range of answers to a question they will be forced to make a choice, possibly a choice they dont agree with and again it skews the results. “Dont knows” are ok in specific questions but it would be best to give an answer that they can fall back upon should they not agree with the other answers rather than a dont know.
max says:
23 July, 2013 at 9:29 pm
If Scots vote YES will an independent Scotland be
a. More prosperous
b. Less prosperous
c. Unchanged
I like these questions because they are the only POSITIVE words on this thread!! I don’t know about anyone else but I’m getting fair scunnered reading all the permutations of how to ask what people think will happen if theres a NO vote! Its really depressing me!
When the oil runs out, do you think Westminster/UK will subsidise Scotland and maintain that we are better together?
The problem with that, as noted before, is that you’re asking people to hold all four scenarios in their heads at once and then rank them,
I’m really not: it’s four yes/no responses that are required. Perhaps you’re reading ‘more’ as ‘most’? In which case, perhaps ‘further’ would be clearer.
What’s the snappy soundbite to take away from that?
What’s the snappy soundbite to take away from yours if 90% of respondents think we’d get more powers from any combination? A poll is surely for information. Snappy soundbites are a bonus, especially if the information is not what we expected. Trying to write the snappy soundbites before you have the information suggests you’d be wasting your money on the polling.
“I’m really not: it’s four yes/no responses that are required.”
“Which is more likely?” is not a yes/no response.
I have put option 1 to 10 people, none of which are particularly interested in the referendum, 3 would vote yes because I’ve leaned on them about their current circumstances regarding welfare reform, 6 because they share my deep loathing of Westminster and the other is an ardent Tory unionist.
All said answer 4. That means (to my mildly inebriated mind), that 100% of those polled believe the closest to correct answer is 4. None of them believed that 4 would bring further powers, or did not believe that the question was relevant at least.
So, 100% of those asked think that UK Labour would give Scottish Labour extra powers if these were the only options. I’m confused, it could be the Fasque. Is it possible that a further/replacement option of further powers are only realistic with a yes vote is a possible option re. option 1? That would side step the tricked by none of the above?
@frankieboy (6.44) –
‘I’m not contemplating a No vote. Scotland will cease to exist if that happens, and rightly so.’
Agreed.
That’s why I haven’t voted on this – I’m sticking with my footballing analogy from last night: would you ask a team to consider what’ll happen if they get gubbed 8-0?
Of course not. So why ask someone to contemplate defeat? It shouldn’t figure whatsoever in the team-talk. You go into a contest to win. End-of. Defeat of any kind, even if it’s ‘glorious’, is for the birds.
Leave the negative stuff to BT – they’re the ‘experts’. We must work on the assumption that a Yes vote is the natural, decent and inevitable result.
Leave the politicking and pragmatism to AS and the SNP/Yes Scotland campaign – they hold the diplomatic/strategic whip-hand whether we like it or not.
This is the closest we’ve ever seen to a poll ‘for the people, by the people’, and we shouldn’t, IMO, deviate from the core concerns of WoS and its readers. Few regular WoS contributors (and readers, if the contributors are a fair representation) are hand-wringing panic-merchants.
Option 3
Do you think any english government will ever give Scotland more powers
a) Yes
b) No
c) Fuckin nae chance
I would try to keep the questions reasonably short so that the responder is not trying to understand the question first and losing track but is thinking about the answers.
“In the event of a no vote:
which of the parties in government at Westminster would grant further devolution to Scotland and the Scottish Parliament?”
Conservative
Labour
Lib. Dems
UKIP
None of the above
I think it’s important to recognise what political capital might be made of this poll if it’s headline ‘initial’ poll isn’t followed up.
John Curtice is always the reflective kind that compares similar polls over time. This approach is necessary to avoid dismissal as a ‘one-off rogue poll’. I would suggest that polling is done every two/three months on 3-5 key questions (looks like we’re all willing to pay for it!) that are repeated every time. The more ‘educational’ questions (say another 3-4) can be adapted according to the results.
This whole grand attempt will be easily dismissed by the MSM if there isn’t a comparable view of what has changed since the last poll, i.e. it needs to be credible and consistent.
@Atypical_Scot
When I first read it I though the same.
The trick is to think of it as 4 separate questions, and the answer to all 4 of them is NO.
It isn’t a multiple choice with 4 options.
That’s why the wording of it is so important.
The headline we will get from it will be that there is NO scenario in which Scotland gets more powers in the event of a NO vote.
Q1. What powers do you wish the Scottish Parliament to have
a) The powers it has at present
b) More powers
c) Less powers
d) Full powers
e) No powers
Q2. In the event of a No Vote, what powers do you think the Scottish Parliament will have after the next Westminster election
a) The powers it has at present
b) More powers
c) Less powers
d) Full powers
e) No powers
Should help the focus on the Scots Parliament post referendum.
I don’t mind your option 1 except it may lead some to think that Labour in Westminster and in Holyrood is a way forward, when it isn’t. Option 2 most ‘normal’ punters won’t get.
“The trick is to think of it as 4 separate questions, and the answer to all 4 of them is NO.
It isn’t a multiple choice with 4 options.”
Exactly. If the question was “which of these scenarios is most likely to result in Scotland getting more powers?”, then it would be a terrible question as it’s implying that ONE of them is correct. But it’s basically saying “do you think any of these scenarios is likely?” We all know none of them are likely – we just need the public to see this too.
Having looked back at Stu’s original wording, it probably could be changed to make it absolutely crystal clear that thinking NONE of them was likely is a perfectly acceptable option. But the idea here of using one question to slyly ask four questions is really good.
@Ivan McKee;
That makes sense if the original question;
In the event of a No vote in the referendum, which, if any, of these statements do you agree with? (You may tick more than one answer.)
Is changed to – In the event of a No vote in the referendum, which, if any, of these statements do you agree with? (Answer yes or no to all)
Which would be an introduction to four questions. Currently it stands as a one scenario with four outcomes meaning we have only ‘spent’ one question. You are more than likely right as I’m on to my fourth Fasque, (fire-side nips).
Doug’s definitely on to this in the right way, what is deducible from the the results is key, and I am no polling buff. I’m just excited to feel part of something constructive that is also collective, so please excuse my over zealousness.
I like Sneeky Boy’s question 5. I’ve always thought the Barnett formula needs to come to the for and people need to know that it is a shrinking budget.
I couldn’t think of way to suggest it but Sneeky Boy has done it for me
Just some thoughts (as if this thread wasn’t already overflowing with them!) …. whatever the final shape of the questions, are there any plans to replicate the poll (concurrently) online? Any sample, randomised or otherwise, is still just a sample. 1000 respondents might nullify some of the “small-sample” effects, but it is still a tiny number in comparison to those entitled to vote in the referendum. Would a different (randomised) 1000 produce similar results? I know that this is where margin of error comes in, but wouldn’t a poll, asking the same questions, with perhaps 30,000 respondents yield useful information? Obviously no point in just asking “Wings” followers, since we already know all the right answers 🙂 … (and would obviously be accused of bias), but if the poll could be more widely disseminated (e.g. FB?) might be interesting. Or get the “Butter Tomorrow” website to run with it as well ….. at least that way there would be (allegedly) MILLIONS of responses! Like I say, just some thoughts 🙂
@Doug Daniel;
You’ve nailed it Doug;
In the event of a No vote in the referendum, do you think it is likely that? (You may tick more than one answer.)
Doug Dan says
“Exactly. If the question was “which of these scenarios is most likely to result in Scotland getting more powers?”, then it would be a terrible question. But it’s basically saying “do you think any of these scenarios is likely?” We all know none of them are likely – we just need the public to see this too.”
Then why not just ask it.
Which of these scenarios do you think is most likely to result in Scotland being granted more powers?
Just a thought but when answering telephone polls if the question is too long winded I tend to say yes ok no.2 questions should be short and to the point.
Sorry but I hit the submit before I was finished editing etc….
Doug Dan says
“Exactly. If the question was “which of these scenarios is most likely to result in Scotland getting more powers?”, then it would be a terrible question. But it’s basically saying “do you think any of these scenarios is likely?” We all know none of them are likely – we just need the public to see this too.”
Then why not just ask it.
Which of these scenarios do you think is most likely to result in Scotland being granted more powers?
One, all or none of the above
“Then why not just ask it.
Which of these scenarios do you think is most likely to result in Scotland being granted more powers?
One, all or none of the above”
For the reasons I’ve explained about three times now.
maybe:
After a No vote which party in Westminster would best consider, and meet the needs of the Scottish People ?
After a No vote which party in Holyrood would best consider, and meet the needs of the Scottish People?
After a No vote, should Holyrood gain extra powers, which party would use those powers to meet the needs of the Scottish People?
After a No vote, with the likely chance of no extra powers for Scotland and Holyrood, which party would best consider, and meet the needs of the Scottish People?
Should the answer be SNP/Scottish Government you would expect people to consider Yes as the only way to vote as anything else would not be in the best interests of the Scottish People.
Sorry I’ll get my coat!
@Rev, you wrote: “the original stated objective was to ask some questions which AREN’T asked by existing polls. So asking people if they’re Yes, No or Don’t Know or Not Going To Vote is pointless, because those questions get asked all the time.”
While I agree 100% with the objective, I do think there’s a point asking about their referendum voting intentions. As far as I remember, whenever I’ve answered a referendum poll in the past, it’s always been introduced by some text — they didn’t just throw the official question at me.
However, this introductory text normally appears somewhat leading — IIRC in the past it often contained words such as “separation”, “break up”, “cease to exist”.
In other words, if we ask the standard question (“Should Scotland be an independent country?”) but introduce it with a more neutral/positive text, it’s likely to produce rather different results from previous polls.
I can see how difficult it is to phrase these questions and I can see what you’re trying to do, but I often use “gut instinct” to tell me if something might be wrong – quite literally. If I sense something could go wrong, I feel a small jump in my stomach. And I got it when I read the 4th question in Option 1 – ” A Labour UK government would be more willing to give more powers to a Labour Scottish government”. For some reason, I feel this could backfire and have the opposite effect from the intended one.
“And I got it when I read the 4th question in Option 1”
Yeah, as I said the only problem I really have with option 1 is that it could lead respondents to think “Well, I better make sure I vote Labour on both sides of the border”. Because the reality of the situation would require you to phrase it as “A Labour UK government giving more powers to the hopeless D-list diddies who represent them in Scotland”, which is definitely a leading question.
Would you be happy to give your next door neighbour all of your wages, let them dump their toxic waste in your garden, get into fights with the family across the road on their behalf, let them decide which school your children go to and which doctor you go to, let them decide whether or not you will join the residents association but any attendances at the residents association it will be them representing the two hoseholds and they will vote on your behalf on any matters raised, let them decide your family budget and whilst they may borrow and get into debt (which you will be jointly liable for) you may not borrow on your own behalf to buy the car that you want, hold on to their samurai swords for them in case they need to use them against that family across the road?
In return, you will get some of your wages back and you will be a sub part of the toughest gang in the street, who are of course answerable to the toughest gang in the scheme who may call upon you to send your oldest son (armed with a table leg) into battle with some other scheme, who may or may not have been looking for a rammy.
Frazzle Dazzle Darling
Excellent if a tad leading.
Wurrafuk, they started it.
Rev Stu
I don’t envy you the task of sifting through this lot and satisfy all of us.
The money, once given is no longer ours,
You take Roddy McDonald’s advice, kick back and choose the questions yourself, after taking quiet advice from some of the more experienced (in polling) of us loonies here.
That is what you are not paid for.
Why not venture in the Lion’s den and ask Prof Curtice to help, for no fee, with the object of aiding the democratic process? You could also hint that as the future next King of Scotland you would be minded to let him stay in Scotland? Better to have him inside the tent pissing out that outside pissing in? Even if he turned you down, it would be worth it fly up to Glasgow and have a face to face with him. Your blog’s importance in the Independence debate should guarantee you an audience as well as some brownie points.
The MSM will start to really take notice.
There will be more lucre to be raised as you refine the next set of questions for Polling 2, 3 etc.
Of the two – Option 1, with an extra “None of the above”. Otherwise respondents may feel obliged to tick one of them
“Of the two – Option 1, with an extra “None of the above”.”
Hngh.
“Then why not just ask it.”
* Quasimodo
* The Hulk
* Councillor Terry Kelly
Q: Which is prettiest?
Q: Which ones are pretty?
Can you see that these questions are different questions?
I haven’t read all the comments yet but I don’t like OPTION 1 as think BT could spin the answers to suit themselves. As for getting a sneaky soundbite, I think all it does is make people think there will be more powers.
Sorry to be so negative but it does make me feel uncomfortable.
I’m getting a bit uncomfortable about this thread.
Are we trying to determine the correct wording of a specific (genuine) question, or constructing one in anticipation of specific results?
If the latter, doesn’t that make us the same as whatever gang of PR-bullshitters BT is paying shedloads to?
In which case, what’s the fucking point?
Are we aiming to have respondents experience epiphanies after answering one question? (If so, the next one had better be a belter to even hold their interest.)
If we really must ask the question, why not just state it as openly and clumsily as BT does e.g. ‘do you really believe Scotland will get any extra powers if it votes No?’
Who could reply ‘Yes’ to that?
Cheer up – how many times has doogy rev been posted?
naebd: surely the answer to both your questions is “Councillor Terry Kelly”?
“Q1 Regardless of how you intend to vote in the referendum…
…
Ach d’you know what. Fuck it. Never Mind. Fucksake.”
A1) Hello? Hello? He hung up, Maureen.
I voted for Option 2. I think the main problem with Option 1 is that it nudges people towards giving an answer that implies there are circumstances in which a British government would devolve more power to Scotland – it’s too easy to skim over the “if any” qualifier. It would be better if there was a clear option of “there are no circumstances in which a UK government is likely to be willing to give more powers to the Scottish Government”.
Apologies in advance if that point has already been made, but this thread is already approaching 250 comments!
@DD Ah, love across the political divide – an inspiration to us all. Also, ya sick bastard.
Lets just spend the 4 grand on a big carry out on September 21st in Edinburgh and we can discuss it there.
Given that Gordon ‘cut your mic’ Brewer just did some better together Oil obfuscation on Newsnicht, I hope Rev is considering a simple question along these lines.
Who would you most trust to manage scotland’s oil in the best interests of the scottish people?
A/ An independent Scotland
B/ The current Westminster parliament.
Ach Gordon Brewer , I wouldn’t buy a motor off of him or Mike, pair of fannies.
Heading off to Blanket Bay, but would like to add that I do honestly think it would be worth taking professional advice on this even if it does cost (although free advice has been offered from some on the site as well). If needs be, it might be better to compromise on the number of questions and ask, say 7 good ones rather than ask 10 and risk some potentially bad ones. It’s great that we’ve been asked for ideas and opinions, but at the end of the day, we also need expertise, skill and experience in this area in order to maximise it’s potential and avoid the pitfalls.
@ianbrotherhood
Yeah, THAT! … Surely what “we” are trying to ascertain is the feeling out there, on the ground, as it really is. Not trying to skew, dupe or manipulate into a soundbite. That’s THEIR game. Yes is winning, on the ground, by a country mile .. just need a ‘reputable’ pollster to dig that out, to give credence or gravitas to the fact. If you walked down Sauchiehall Street on a Saturday afternoon, and didn’t even stop to ask questions, but just asked (walking past, with an “Independence T-shirt on) …….. Yes or No!! ……. 😉
Damn! Committed apostrophe abuse!
How about….
How much oil is left in Scottish waters ?
A) 2 billion barrels like Mr Darling thinks? Or
B) 24 billion barrels like all the oil experts think ?
Why can’t we just ask the following and be done with it?
Do you trust the Westminster government in London to hand over additional powers to Scotland should we vote no in the referendum?
Yes or No
Apologies if this has already been covered, and I know that we are on a tight budget, but I would first want to know if people actually believe in ‘jam tomorrow’, before trying to establish which London party combo they think would be the most likely to give it to them. Might it be an idea to choose this as the focus of two, three, or even four questions? I would imagine this issue is kind of important to many of the undecided.
At last, scottish_skier breaks cover!
And, as I had hoped, he goes with –
KIS_S.
@Jeanie;
I prefer hundreds of fact hungry contributors collectively realizing something they have all contributed towards having a chance to be a mutually beneficial part of the progressive national realization of a truly independent nation than a pair of sweaty office types doodling the same old same old at the behest of some holier than thou incubus with money signs in their eyes, but I take your point.
I haven’t read all the comments so it might have been said already. The focus of the poll shoulld be to find out where people are coming from in terms of past voting and what will make them move to a vote for independence. A previous poll uncovered the fact that many people thought that Holyrood already had responsibility for everything. That needs to be teased out and then given a coup de grace as to where responsibilities actually lie.
Another item to be covered should be about oil – McCrone lies/ oil fund/ saving for future generations etc
Considering we’re ahead of the game (fund raiser was going to be a couple of weeks away) why not see what everyone thinks and tally the responses with the poll in a democratic manner?
@Firestarter-
‘Surely what “we” are trying to ascertain is the feeling out there, on the ground, as it really is.’
Kin right.
SSP meeting tonight, in Irvine, as usual – I did a spiel about McCrone, then we had a good old gab about all sorts of stuff. I can say, hand-on-heart, that the newest addition to the long line of ‘fannies’ wasn’t even mentioned.
Afterwards, outside Cafe Cafe, on a very quiet High St, some of us reflected on what we’re doing, and why. We’ve been doing street work constantly for the past two years. The vibe on the street is overwhelmingly ‘Yes’. (My own reckoning is between 62-65% of votes cast will be Yes)
We know we’re being monitored by the security services – they wouldn’t be doing their job unless they were keeping an eye on ‘the likes of us’. That’s fair enough.
We also know they could interrupt one of our meetings at any time, just as they can invade and apprehend any gathering of people whom they suspect under the terms of whatever Terrorism Act was last passed.
This, right here, on WoS, is a proper ‘gathering’. As AlexMcl said, perhaps on another thread, ‘we’re in baw-deep’.
We certainly are – they can, legally, break up a meeting of folk in a cafe, or standing at a street-corner.
But they can’t break this up any more than they can smash Occupy or Anonymous, or, for that matter, groups of citizens who gather in one another’s homes to watch so-called ‘underground’ videos and discuss ‘forbidden’ subjects.
They cannot beat us, and they know it.
That’s why fear is their main weapon – it’s all they have, and all they know.
(Poor sowels, bless! they’re only projecting what they feel.)
@ianbrotherhood, brilliant post mate, when there are guys like your good self and the rest of your boys talking to the ordinary punter on the street, that’s what gives me confidence we are winning this.
Stu – you are a fine polemicist but not great at framing questions for polls. Can I humbly suggest you get in touch with Doug Daniel, S.S, Scptt Minto and James Kelly and come up with a short version of 5 or 6 questions, some of which can be repeated, and then run them past us here?
OPTION 3
In the event of a No vote in the referendum, answer whether you believe ‘Less’ or ‘More’, is more likely to apply to each of the following statements.
– A UK Conservative government position regarding new devolved powers for Holyrood with an SNP Scottish Government. (Less or More?)
– A UK Conservative government position regarding new devolved powers for Holyrood with a Labour Scottish Government. (Less or More?)
– A UK Labourgovernment position regarding new devolved powers for Holyrood with an SNP Scottish Government. (Less or More?)
– A UK Labourgovernment position regarding new devolved powers for Holyrood with a Labour Scottish Government. (Less or More?)
Please do not think that I am addressing this specifically to any individual poster, as I appreciate I have no authority on this site, either moral or actual. However, I think there is a risk that some of our bluster and bravado will detract from the detailed analysis and clinical butchery of the Union, we all expect from WoS. The value of this is beyond calculation.
This is a public forum open to all comers, of all persuasions and tastes. Can we try and keep that in mind please?
@ianbrotherhood
This is just it. The YES camp projects passion, fire and a belief in a better Scotland. It has drive. The NO camp has a wet blanket, for day to day use, and a bucket of water on standby(just in case things get TOO out of hand )
I wouldn’t underestimate the power of “the state” though …… the “above waterline” machinations will be only a fraction of what’s going on ……. just hope *our* state has the wherewithal to counter *their*state ……..
bottom line though, we have morality on our side …. GOTTA be a bonus? 🙂
Still honing my OPTION 3
This is clearer
OPTION 3
In the event of a No vote in the referendum, answer whether you believe ‘Less’ or ‘More’ powers to those which already exist under devolution, is more likely to apply to each of the following statements.
– A UK Conservative Government position regarding devolved powers for Holyrood with an SNP Scottish Government. (Less or More than at present?)
– A UK Conservative Government position regarding devolved powers for Holyrood with a Labour Scottish Government. (Less or More than at present?)
– A UK Labour Government position regarding devolved powers for Holyrood with an SNP Scottish Government. (Less or More than at present?)
– A UK Labour Government position regarding devolved powers for Holyrood with a Labour Scottish Government. (Less or More than at present?)
PS. Idea is that, for the same bang for the buck, you still make folk think about it, still get the relative party matrix info. BUT also get info and make folk focus on the possibility of LESS powers.
Stu, we don’t get any of this on the doorsteps. We get some Yes for sure, some No for sure, and an awful lot of completely genuine ‘don’t knows’. I can tell you now, free of charge, that these undecideds are very relaxed because they think that voting No (or not voting at all) will leave things as they are. And they think that the way things are is OK. There is a general unawareness that the UK is a very long way up shit creek, with paddles hard to come by. Your questions might be interesting to political anoraks but jeez, have a walk around the pavements with us activists. In the places where we have to be effective, absolutely nobody talks or thinks that way.
I also think you’re push-polling – suggesting an answer by the form of the question. You’re only going to hit a thousand people so don’t bother with that.
Discovered an ancient bottle of vodka in the freezer, so I’m afraid incapable of being more constructive than that at the moment. Will try to be more useful in the morning.
Oh – it is the morning….
@Vronsky-
Hey, mister – were those normal White Goods you had…?
Magic Porridge pot scenario…good luck in any event…hope you captured the final ice-trays from both…
…cheers man..
…hic…
I must say that my expectation regarding the result for this question would be that Labour would be more inclined to give more powers if a Labour Scottish Government were in place and so would a UK Tory Government, so I rather fear that the conclusion, as far as the punters are concerned, is that it would be better to vote Labour if a no vote occurs.
Probably not the best message re the future fight for independence if the people vote No.
Would much rather see questions which helped make manifestly clear that the real aspiration of the majority of Scots is normal levels of self government and expose unionist scaremongering for what it is. I think that is the key goal which we should set rather than trying to snapshot the current state of play of tribalistic party boundaries which are anything but constant other than in their inexorable trend towards blurring and merger, especially on the issue of independence.
@ Cameron B , dont think I’m taking this the wrong way mate, or thinking you singling anyone out, you say that this site is open to anyone, which is quite correct, and I understand your worries about some posts on here, but you need to realise that we need to reach out to everyone, not just the people who understand what most posters on here already know. Some of the bravado , bad language and general piss taking of people who’s head is so far up their own arse, it would take a hand grenade to remove, will appeal to lots and lots of folk we need to reach. most folk I mix/work/socialise with would not appreciate, all the technical stuff on here and would be turned off after reading a few comments.
I have been reading and occasionally commenting on here since 2011, but to be honest with you, sometimes I find it hard to keep up with some of the comments. They are way above my head, but I’m not going to get pissed off , I understand my limitations, and realise there’s no way I could put the hours in to gain enough of an understanding about some subject to make it worth my while commenting.
in my opinion, and it is just that, my opinion. If we stop the wee snidely comments, dry humour and some of the nonsense post which lighten the mood of the topic being discussed, it would detract from what Rev Stu has put together here. Do that and it becomes an other NNS. I think that’s the beauty of Wings. I get to mix with others who know considerably more than I do on some subjects, and get to glean info and opinions from them. They might take nothing from others like myselfs posts, but if they give them a giggle, and make them think, do you know what, I’m going to post something like that on here, well I have done my bit helping folk engage, who might not have dreamed of posting on a site discussing politics, well that would make me happy.
Question 1:
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes/No/Unsure/No Opinion
*Description of Devo Max powers*
Question 2:
in the event if a no vote, would you be in favour or against the powers of Devo Max being granted to Scotland?
In favour of Scotland having these powers/Against Scotland having these powers/Unsure
Question 3:
Thinking about what you have heard from the Better Together campaign so far, how convincing, if at all, is the case that Westminster would grant these powers to Scotland?
Very Convincing/Fairly Convincing/Fairly Unconvincing/Not Convincing At All
@ AlexMcl
You can probably imagine the difficulty I had in deciding whether to post that, as I hope it is obvious that I support freedom of speech. I would never want this space to turn dry and nerdy, and I would hope that was obvious from some of my posts. As I said, I have no moral authority here. Neither do I feel as if I have any intellectual authority. I hear and understand exactly what you are saying, and to the large extent I agree with you. I just wouldn’t want some of our cheaper shots turning off undecided readers. We’re not in this for shits and giggles.
“I just wouldn’t want some of our cheaper shots turning off undecided readers”
Always, always this. I’ve said it many times before but it’s always worth saying again for new folks: this isn’t a social club for coming together and talking amongst ourselves. If we only talk to ourselves we will lose. So when you comment, try to write as if undecided voters are reading. Because they are, and if they find a load of nutters seething with hatred and abuse, they’re not going to feel much like voting Yes.
A bit of mickey-taking is fine. But have you ever been persuaded to someone’s case by a lot of sneering and name-calling? Because if you haven’t, why would anyone else?
Sod it, Stu. I think you were bounced into putting up options by dint of being taken aback by how fast the moolah was raised.
We punted you the moolah because we like what we’ve read over the last X months / years, and we like the idea you mooted.
There’s 15 days to go. Step back, think what we want to learn for ourselves and and what we want to impart to the electorate from this exercise and do what you think is right.
@ Roddy Macdonald
Agreed.
I think knowing what the budget is or is likely to be Rev., will help clarify what will be possible. Break it down from there.
@ AlexMcI
Just reread my last post to you and it didn’t read as I meant it to. This isn’t my site, and I’m not the playground monitor or class prefect. I’m actually a hypocrite, as it was the thread on the royal sprog that had gotten me annoyed. I had joined in with some gentle poking with sticks, but was left wondering how the hostility expressed by some, might be picked up by undecided monarchists or those not convinced by republicanism. Possibly not an insignificant readership.
Re. swearing. I’m not pointing fingers, though I do like to think that we’ve been invited in to the Rev.’s house, or at least the garage. Anyway, Santa knows who’s been naughty or nice. 😉 wearing a halo
Q1 In 2014, the people of Scotland will get the chance to break free from Westminster rule.
How brilliant is that?
a. The dug’s.
b. Mince.
Jeez
remind me in future rev if we’re collecting funds for something to let my wife do it,
I started on the contributions site @ 05.30 this morning and finally got down to post (crap mostly)just now @ 06.26
oh my god, lost the will to live with the continuous errors (self inflicted I might add)and password resets but after a campaign of distraction and obfuscation (sounds like we’re better together dnt it?) I managed to nick her (indoors) purse and stuck a tenner in the fund 🙂
considering your concurrence with a post last night rev, that suggested there were too many voices and opinions re the questions,
why don’t we elect a corum who can thrash out the fine details on behalf of us all, lets face it there are people in this forum more adept at coming up with strong questions than others (I include my self in the latter) ?
We’ll still end with a camel, albeit with a different number of humps.
The Rev’s money now, see my earlier post just above.
My question is
What punishment should be dished out to the British spy at the heart of the Scottish civil service?
Another leaked policy paper detailed on BBC Radio Scotland this morning.
More dirty tricks to come as you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Linda’s Back says:
24 July, 2013 at 7:21 am
“My question is What punishment should be dished out to the British spy at the heart of the Scottish civil service?Another leaked policy paper detailed on BBC Radio Scotland this morning.More dirty tricks to come as you ain’t seen nothing yet. ”
I take this very seriously and anyone who acts against the interests of the government for whom they work imo should face a charge of treason in an independent Scotland and I would throw the book at him/her,
life imprisonment for example, if these people think the independence movement is some kind of joke that will eventually go away ,they need to take a reality check and realize just HOW seriously there actions will be taken
given that the BBC is a public body,
My thoughts on that (public service) exposing confidential information stolen from the Scottish government they themselves should face sanctions for the release of (secret information?)
just look at the extent to which the USA are going to, to apprehend that analyst for exposing their campaign (which involves GCHQ) of eavesdropping on just about the entire planet , the BBC are an apolitical organisation (according to their own mission statement) and should be held to account for the release of confidential materiel,
turn that the other way round, can you see them doing that to Westminster?
With regards to sneering and name calling, to be fair there is not a great deal on here, when you compare it to the Unionist Newspaper forums. I often see comments regarding the case put by ScoIndy supporters, that they are well informed, lucid and backed up by facts and figures. We are name called by unionist apparatchiks, as there interest is self self self. And of course as we all know and have experienced, when you resort to name calling and sneering you have just conceded the argument. For example there was the famous House of Lords debate when a noble one cautioned Forsyth, Foulkes and several other ennobled ones who had spent the debate making sneering references to Alex Salmond. Foulkes is often credited with having labelled ScoIndy supporters on the WWW as Cybernats. He sneers every time he opens his mouth. As far as I am concerned these so called big hitters have lost the argument and are simply arguing for self preservation, and talking to them selves. Even they cannot believe some of the pish they come out with.
If you take for example a conversation in a pub, which I often think this is like. Voices will get raised, sarcasm will be used. It often starts as a wee niggly remark, but then someone decides to get back at the remarker, more drink is taken and the volume goes up and up, but there are always those who present their arguments so crystal clear and backed up by facts and figures that in the end they command the high tops and people actually listen intently to them. It’s at that point Sammy goes to the toilet as it is his round and he thinks no one will notice. He was wrong.
UKOK are losing this argument, they know they are losing the argument, just look at their outbursts on Twitter, name calling Alex Salmond and blocking those who hold them to account. The Rev and several others are performing miracles on the WWW. There is nothing to fear but fear itself. Keep calm, nae bevvying, the world is watching us. It’s taps aff again in Scotland, get in tae them.
My question is What punishment should be dished out to the British spy at the heart of the Scottish civil service?Another leaked policy paper detailed on BBC Radio Scotland this morning.More dirty tricks to come as you ain’t seen nothing yet.
I didn’t hear it myself, but lets not jump to conclusions about a news report from the British state’s ‘news agency’, which we all know can’t be trusted on Scottish matters. Especially when the report is broadcast during the morning school run. Early enough in the day for your mind to be receptive, but a stressful enough experience for most, for our critical faculties to be distracted.
I think any references to Labour are irrelevant, theyre done.
The “Willing” wording is also open to interpretation, is this “promises or actually coming through on delivery?”. Cant we phrase it as a trust issue
Would you TRUST a UK Unionist Party to dissolve major powers to Scotland?
or ask
What powers do you believe the Scottish Govt should control?
OT. Its nice to start the day with a smile.
http://1.2.3.10/bmi/static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/7/23/1374574877236/0951a273-d9d3-4d83-812a-26c5141d5131-620×372.jpeg
My question last night – Then why don’t you just ask it? – was born more out of frustration that this thread was turning into some kind of intelectuell DIY free-for-all than a straight forward question for the normal person on the street.
Keep it simple – KISS – remember your talking to everyone not just the chosen few.
First thoughts Rev –
This is a representative sample of 900 to 1200 people who are not politically motivated. We need to know what issues they are thinking about rather than reinforcing ‘our’ positive commitment.
Don’t mention a No Vote and the consequences as I think you are ‘pushing’ people in the wrong direction and don’t direct the question to any negatives about a political party as this will reinforce what people think about party politics rather than the Referendum.
I’d favour a more open question where the Pollster can suggest a wording to eliminate bias.
Question option
From the list of phrases blow which of the following will influence you to vote Yes or No in the Referendum;
a) A Scottish Parliament that will make all the decisions affecting the people of Scotland,
b) An improving Scottish economy,
c) A declining Scottish economy,
d) The election of a i) Conservative Government in Westminster in 2015, ii) Labour Government in 2015,etc
Add more questions as required or can afford.
(The concern is whether this is one question or many.)
Are most of those undecided/unconvinced voters really looking for ‘more information’ or are they just waiting until September 2014 to make a judgement of the state of Scotland, the UK and the 2015 Westminster election?
An alternative question could seek information about those who never or rarely vote (say 40% of the electorate) and whether they will vote in the Referendum. You might make the general assumption that if you don’t care about the Government of the day you aren’t going to vote in the Referendum. Therefore if there is a higher turnout on the day the views of this group, which is discounted or given reduced credence, in normal polling, will be influential.
I voted option 3 because I like *both* questions. On balance, if I had too, I’d choose option 1 because it makes the answerer think about the potential attitude of both horses in the two-horse race rather than just one. However, we can afford more than one question.
I have been out of the loop for a wee while. Anyway for what it’s worth I think, as well as polling, why not spend the cash on events, debates throughout Scotland. Pay for high profile people to take part ensuring an audience turns up and then get down to the nuts and bolts of what’s going on. It could be billed as what the media are not telling you etc etc. A focus on local issues. In the event of a NO vote, the future of EU membership, for example.
With high profile participants, MSM interest would follow, in spite of itself.
Of course if you want to keep all the polling cash for that purpose I’m sure you could have another fundraiser for Scotland wide events.
The level of misinformation and ignorance never fails to amaze me. On a recent Wester Ross working sojourn a prospective voter asked me, quite seriously ……..
‘Isn’t it true all Scots’ abroad will get the vote?’
Somehow I feel there needs to be more noise about next year’s vote. I’d be more than happy to help with any organisation.
At last, scottish_skier breaks cover!
SS is temporarily foreign, fraternizing with foreigners, lying on foreign beaches, eating foreign food and stuff.
RE the poll question. I still feel it’s overly complex. What is the goal; to solicit the view the respondent already has or to lead them to one by showing the unlikely scenarios required for this?
I’d worry about making the respondent think to much. A poll is supposed to be a gauge of public opinion at a given instant, not a means to persuade a small group of people of something.
Ok, you could argue that the published results could help persuade a lot of people. However, I suspect a lot of people would answer Labour-Labour as the most likely route for more powers even if they think its still a fairly unlikely scenario which would happen reluctantly. However, the headlines would be ‘Public think Labour most likely to deliver more powers’.
I’d suggest sticking to simple Q’s with Y/N or 1 very likely to 5 very unlikely rankings.
If you want to know whether people are thinking that more powers will come Scotland’s way in the event of a no vote, just ask them that straight up. How likely do they think that would be? That’s some firm numbers to work with.
As I said before, you can then go on to under what scenario they might think more powers would come about as a follow up question if they have said they think it will happen.
I’m for option 1, notwithstanding the minor issue that it does hint ‘vote Labour’.
I think if the consensus & the Rev’s view is for option 1, then the next good step would be to concentrate on whether it can be phrased any better and stick with it (or a more refined version) for the first question.
On the Rev’s note about being careful not to speak to ourselves alone, while we’re thinking of questions and phrasings we (i.e. those more savvy about this than i am) should also be considering how the results are likely to be played out in the media (being optimistic that they will be picked up). One of the key uses of polls is to get results that steer the debate in the media.
@Rev – Polling a great idea btw, kudos. It’s great to see that the success of the intitial WoS crowdsourcing is leading to more grassroots funded activity normally the preserve of establishment players.
Open, people-driven, active participation in the modern democratic process! <shocking>
On bookshelves soon –
Cybernats – the self-fulfilling prophecy. By G. Fuddery Foulkes. “they’re doing it deliberately…”
RIGHT THEN.
750+ comments across two posts later, I think what we’ve learned is that if we discuss this any more we’ll all go completely batty, and I know I will.
Informed by what people have said I’m going to have a from-scratch rethink about this question, and just trust myself on the (less tricky) others. May still have a final “popularity contest” for two or three of the questions.
“One of the key uses of polls is to get results that steer the debate in the media.”
Absolutely.
“I think if the consensus & the Rev’s view is for option 1″
Funnily enough, I voted for Option 2 😀
Q1 is too leading(open to criticism) and complicated it asks several questions in one.
Q2 doesn’t need the “If Labour win the next election” bit
I agree 100% with scottish skier. Any question has to be Clear,simple and direct with the results only having one way of being interpreted. both of these are likely to solicit answers based on what people might want to happen rather than on what they might actually think will happen.
As Roddy Macdonald and others have said, while its good that you are interested in gaining folks insight and opinions Rev, basically I trust you enough to come up with the questions on your own and was happy to contribute to the funding on that basis.
Just go with your gut, I’m sure it’ll be fine.
edit – And while I was posting that, you seem to have come to the same conclusion yourself! 🙂
Personally, I wouldn’t ask a more powers question at all. The SNP already did months ago and it was completely ignored by the media. We already know 47% of Scots aren’t convinced, as such I don’t think asking it again would be that valuable.
I am unsure which questions would reliever the most value for money, but I believe the first question should be the referendum one, using Yes, No, Unsure and No Preference as the answers. Or alternatively, use a 1-10 scale. I believe both formats would help filter out the people who aren’t interested in the referendum from the no and don’t know votes.
Although it’s hardly scientific, wouldn’t it be useful if people who are talking to people on the doorstep were to tell us which area they are operating in? For example ianbrotherhood seems to work mainly in Ayrshire. I’m thinking here of Vronsky, who has posted some quite worrying comments recently. Is this apathy general across Scotland, or is it confined to a few pockets in west central Scotland? I think it would be helpful to know. I assume that these planned polls will be spread across the country, rather than in individual areas.
Rev., are you planning on establishing what polling has been done by Yes and the SG, and what they plan to do? I would hope they would tell you, if you asked nicely.
‘Funnily enough, I voted for Option 2 ‘
See – it’s all crystal clear, erm…
More constructively, maybe clarity on the motivation/s for the question first would inform its selection and phrasing.
Although to be fair, perhaps a ‘benevolent dictatorial’ approach might be quicker – you could always pick a wee ‘focus’ group from among your regular contributors & commenters (who have a bit of knowledge or clarity in this sort of thing) if it helps. You don’t want to get too bogged down at this early stage, perfection is elusive and good enough is frequently quite within reach.
I see that OPTION 1 is the favourite. It’s the sort of question political anoraks love to discuss. Are ordinary Scots expected to ponder something that may or may not happen? I bet Labour would favour it.
I think the person in the street is most likely to tick choice 4 of OPTION 1. That’s what brainwashing has done. Please be careful.
I agree that it’s best to keep the questions reasonably simple and straightforward so as not to confuse the pollee but also because you have to be able to analyze the results effectively. Even within simple questions, there is still the opportunity to inform and analyze. e.g.
Given that the population of Scotland is less than 10% of the population of the United Kingdom, how likely do you think it is that the UK government is able to make spending in Scotland a priority. (yes, I know this example is leading, but you get the point).
I agree with Roddy that it might be better to wait to see how much money is raised in total to see how much leeway there is with respect to the number of questions affordable rather than trying to cram too much into one question.
And I would repeat, use some of the money for professional advice. It is likely to produce a more polished product, but it’s also possible it will save hours of work in terms of designing questions and sifting through results that are hard to analyze because the question was either perhaps misleading or produced confusing results.
I’d forget questions for the moment and concentrate on what do you want to learn from the poll and what polling conclusions do we want to see ‘out there’ that haven’t been supplied by polls so far.
Decide that and the simple questions will come.
Sorry, very late to this.
I’m not sure a “more powers” question will tell us that much, since I’m not at all sure most people are even aware what is reserved and devolved right now. “More powers” seems to be one of these catch-all easy answers, a bit like devo-max, which people can easily say but not know what they mean by it.
I have a funny feeling this is one area the Yes campaign and SNP are seriously lacking. People need to aware of what is and is not now devolved and reserved, and what that means, and I have a feeling those running the campaign are assuming too much understanding.
So I’d favour asking a question along the lines of “Which government (Scottish or Westminster) do you think should control the following areas: “health, welfare, Scottish economy, energy, taxes etc) followed up by “Which government do you think currently does control, or have most control over…” then the same list.
I suspect that might throw up some interesting areas of ignorance.
I voted for the second option, which is quite good. I would also like to suggest another alternative (had I voted for option3!):
In the event of a NO vote in 2014, what do you think will then be provided to the Scottish parliament by Westminster:
1) Substantial, new powers (including econimic levers)
2) Minor, very limited new powers (of no real benefit)
3) No new powers at all (status quo)
4) A reduction in powers (no more referendums possible!)
Can’t help thinking that in option 1, the UK Lab Govt gives Scot Lab Govt more powers is a default answer a number of people will think is realistic (including non-labour voters). I agree with other comments suggesting a reasonably strong response on this point would provide ammunition for others to suggest voting no/labour/labour is the route to devo max. We may know it’s unrealistic but others may not be so aware. Don’t want to encourage further entrenchment of this fallacy.
Don’t know what the better option would be but it’s perhaps driven by the question of whether or not labour can win at UK or Scottish elections, as much as whether or not they’ll actully devolve any more powers.
Rev:
“Informed by what people have said I’m going to have a from-scratch rethink about this question, and just trust myself on the (less tricky) others.”
Lots of input here, but lots of chasing tails up fundaments too. I’d suggest formulating your questions as simply as possible, then run them privately by Scottish Skier, Butch McCassidy, with Doug Daniel in reserve.
My own gut feeling is to keep things simple and not to try to be too clever and use the poll to actually mould opinion. The key is surely to gauge opinion accurately, something I’m sure we all feel has not been done properly by most mainstream polls.
Option 3
Do you think whoever is in charge at Westminster after a NO vote will totally shaft Scotland
YES/YES (no “NO” option)
In the event of a no vote, and knowing they made the same false promises in 1979, do you really believe a Tory or Labour Westminster government will give more powers to the Scottish government?
I think two of the options for question 1 –
A Conservative UK government would be willing to give more powers to an SNP Scottish Government.
A Labour UK government would be willing to give more powers to an SNP Scottish Government.
Could make people think twice about voting SNP.
Having now read/skimmed ALL the comments so far I conclude that Wings running a poll is not a good idea. There are no questions it could ask which are not being asked in many guises already. There is a very grave danger that Wings’ credibility could be damaged by a badly thought out poll; and that would be disastrous.
So, keep the money Stu and put it to good use in your writing.
Further to my last post. I should add put the money to good use in what Wings already does well. Also, being involved in a Poll like this could mean Wings takes it eye off the ball and becomes involved in trivia at a crucial time.
Again, I agree with Roddy. What is needed is to sit down and think out a long-term plan for assessing the public view, that is to say, a series of related, straightforward questions that can be asked in one poll then repeated over a period of time so that movement in opinion can be gauged.
We really need to be clear about what it is we want to do with the polling – simply test public opinion on a range of topics and track movement over a period of time or frame questions in such a way as to raise awareness of issues, then ask for opinion (although it’s hard to do this without leading), then track that over a period of time, etc, etc. One way or another, we need clarity of purpose.
Once the aim is clear, it gets easier to frame the questions, I think. It goes without saying that honesty and fairness should be at the heart of it.
“What is needed is to sit down and think out a long-term plan for assessing the public view, that is to say, a series of related, straightforward questions that can be asked in one poll then repeated over a period of time so that movement in opinion can be gauged.”
As I say, we’re not trying to set ourselves up as a new polling company. We’re trying to achieve a specific goal.
Hi Rev, my brains speaking……
How well does Westminster serve the people of Scotland?
1 – very good
2- good
3 – average
4- poor
5 – very poor
Which areas of government do you believe the Scottish parliament should be responsible for?
1- Economy & business
2- Defence and Foreign affairs
3- Social Welfare
4- Consititution, immigration and nationality
5- None of the above
Rev Stu,
Do you think it would be possible/reasonable to draw people’s attention to Project Fear by inserting a question about it?
Possible follow up question ;-
If Scotland should vote to remain in the United Kingdom do you believe the UK Government will –
1- Increase the Scottish parliaments powers/scope
2- Decrease the Scottish parliaments powers/scope
3- Leave the Scottish parliament with its current powers/scope
Questions shown are far too complex by far – remember it’ll be the man/woman in the street that is being asked, not politics junkies like those of us that hang about in sites like these.
K.I.S.S.
Don’t know if you have the facility to allow voting on posts, but would give a good indication of how popular many of the suggestions are.
Like a couple of other posters, I think the questions as framed would just bamboozle most.
BILLDUNBLANE
Double plus good
Unfortunately I am unable to chip in financially at the moment, for which I am very, very sorry. Hence, not sure I should add my tuppence worth, but thoughts are free so here goes anyway.
Given the refusal of The Labour, LibDem and Conservative Parties to include a ‘more powers’ question as part of the 2014 Scottish referendum, how likely do you consider it to be that more powers will be passed from Westminster to The Scottish Parliament in the event of a NO vote to Independence?
Please choose one of the following :
Very likely
Likely
Unlikely
Very unlikely
This question should make it clear that the population does not believe the jam tomorrow promises (good for a headline hopefully) and also reinforces the message that the chance to secure just such a settlement has already been rejected by the Unionist parties who are now trying to hint at it’s inevitability if only we vote NO.
Do you think in the event of a no vote that Scotland should renegociate the terms with which it remains in in a union with England following another referendum asking the Scottish people which powers they wish to be held in the Scottish parliament.
I agree with Eoin, and possibly others I haven’t seen since I just skimmed down to where I could comment, mostly.
I do not, personally, think any party currently with aspirations to run the UK Government (into the ground or otherwise) has got the slightest intention of transferring powers to Scotland after a no vote; I am just about old enough to remember my father cursing Maggie Thatcher and every person who voted no to devolution in the Seventies for falling for their lies.
I see no reason to believe the modern generation of Westminster politicians are to be trusted any more than those of Thatcher’s era. The whole problem with ‘vote no and you’ll get more powers’ is voting no is the pre-requisite. I fundamentally believe if we vote no the precise opposite of more powers for Scotland will result; they’ll strip authority from Holyrood like they were having a fire sale to ensure that the Scottish Government never again has the legal authority to call a referendum. They will not make the same mistake twice.
@Braco
I like that one a lot.
The whole tacit ‘vote no -> get devo-X’ thing is a fox needing shot.
Interest in the results to one side, if the poll was covered, the question alone ought to force a media interrogation of the BT parties’ respective positions.
@ mrbfaethedee
Is it our fox to shoot though or is it Ek’s? He might want to do it on a particular day and in a particular fashion. Wearing Harris Tweed perhaps, specially for Dave on his latest day-trip.
mrbfaethedee,
yeah, to be honest I was concentrating on the possible coverage in the MSM that such an ‘Independent’ poll from respectable pollsters (payed for by Wings) might get and how we could use that agenda setting opportunity to re open and re state the simple fact that each and every unionist party already had the legally binding chance to offer more powers but emphatically declined it!
It follows therefor that any offers they make now on the subject are window dressing and subterfuge. A valuable message to get out there, I would have thought.
CameronB,
that’s a fox that needs shot over and over and over again, to become effective when someone like Wee Eck takes the odd high profile pot shot at it!
At the moment no one is even taking aim at it, as the media has effectively moved the agenda on from the ‘initial skirmishes’ over the referendum question/questions.
This has effectively allowed betterNO off the hook, after their nonsensical ‘Independence must be settled once and for all, before we can turn to the question of more devolution’ schtic.
Especially so, as they have now started hinting at promises and plans for ‘inevitable’ further devolution if only we vote NO and all, of course, BEFORE independence has been ‘settled once and for all’!
@CameronB
It’s a good point. In fact, is any independent strategy by unofficial Yesistas going to have unintended impact on the official strategy?
I think on balance that Braco’s follow-on about sums it up – we just need to have some things aired by the media properly, the official boot can later be applied all the better.
I like the idea of being in a position where the media might possibly make the BT parties squirm publicly with their unwillingness or inability to answer the question.
@Braco
Actually, I quite like the way you’ve phrased that question.
Thank you Jeannie.
I favour option one over otion two though a lot of the suggestions for option three have merit. Can I suggest Rev that once you come to a conclusion that you put the final suggested complete poll on this site and get us all to answer the questions and comment if we had a problem. Publish those results, fine tune if necessary and then off to the general public.
I would still rather be doing a poll which listed a number of things an independent Scotland could do and asked the respondents to place them in their order of preference.
Braco
Given the refusal of The Labour, LibDem and Conservative Parties to include a ‘more powers’
The problem with that question is it would not provide an accurate picture of the current situation. It is adding information that someone in theory might not know.
For polling purposes, this should be avoided as it might artificially inflate a particular response meaning your sample is now not representative of the population.
It’s like asking 1000 people if they’d vote Y or N after you’ve just given them all a presentation on the McCrone report…
If the goal is to judge how many people think more powers will be forthcoming from the ‘UK government’ (no party specified) based on what they know right now, then just ask them that. Then, as noted, you can ask them if they think a particular party would be more inclined to devolve more powers, and about Tory to SNP, Lab to Lab as per Rev’s q etc.
I think you’ll find that ~7 in 10 will be highly doubtful of any further meaningful devolution as that’s the amount that definitely don’t trust Westminster in polls. Only about 1-2 in 10 think it acts in Scotland’s interests some of the time.
Scottish Skier,
Yeah, I pretty much agree with you on that, if you are actually looking to get polling info out of a ‘more powers’ question.
However, as the SNP have already polled just such a question (47% unconvinced and 33% convinced by arguments that ‘more powers’ will be forthcoming, I paraphrase) and was completely ignored by the media, I thought if we are going to go with another more powers question then we should be using it to reinforce the public perception that no one believes more powers will be delivered by Westminster.
While at the same time educating anybody who reads the polling question, should it half decent MSM coverage.
I was also concentrating on the possible coverage in the MSM that such an ‘Independent’ poll from respectable pollsters (payed for by Wings) might get and how we could use that agenda setting opportunity to re open and re state the simple fact that each and every unionist party already had the legally binding chance to offer more powers but emphatically declined it!
Something folk who believe the Jam Tomorrow rubbish obviously have not taken on board yet.
@John H. (10.11) –
Aye John, that’s right. I’m always on SSP stalls though – I have a wallpaper table between me and the Great Unwashed. People don’t tend to go out of their way to give us a hard time.
Vronsky, I think, has gone that step further and knocks people’s doors – I’m sure he’ll correct me if I’m wrong here. (Perhaps he just leaflets and gets the occasional door opening.)
It’s easy to see where the ‘negativity’ V has reported arises, especially when compared to the upbeat accounts I submit. That’s not to say either of us is making it up, or that there’s any significant difference because of location – put it this way: I don’t believe I’ll ever knock people’s doors, no matter how impassioned I may be on this or that subject, because when I’m at home I deeply resent being disturbed by anyone ‘selling’ stuff, be it services, goods, or, for that matter, a political vision. That may be why I’m too scared to knock a door – in case I meet my doppelganger and end up with a crinkly mouth.
To each their ain right enough…
However, as the SNP have already polled just such a question (47% unconvinced and 33%
That was a Yougov survey, so we can safely assume it’s considerably higher than 47% and lower than 33% respectively…
🙂
Scottish Skier
It’s that tension between purist polling to gain actual data and the more politically motivated media tool of the dirty push poll. I seem to effortlessly drift towards the latter while you admirably stick to the former. (ashamedofmyselfsmily)
I really think it is worthwhile to ask the referendum question. I know that it will have been asked just a few weeks earlier, but it is important to put this particular poll in context. The responses to further questions cannot be fully interpreted without a proper gauge on this poll’s percentages on the referendum question.
As for the question here: I know funds are limited, but ideally a series of questions should be asked – 1) do you want more powers for the Scottish parliament?
2)In the event of a no vote which Scottish government is most likely to secure more powers for the Scottish parliament? SNP, lab, con, ld, green etc….
3) in the event of a no vote which UK government is most likely to grant more powers for the Scottish parliament? con, lab, ld, ukip….
4)In the event of a no vote do you believe the UK government will grant more powers to the Scottish Parliament?
It really depends on what you want to find out. I do not believe it is possible to capture the detail of what everyone here seems to want to know in just one clear question.
“I really think it is worthwhile to ask the referendum question. I know that it will have been asked just a few weeks earlier,”
A few days earlier, by the same polling company.
Rev,
Come on man, give us a sniff of the ‘sporty’ question…go on, just a wee snifter to keep us going…gowan gowan gowan gowan gowan…
“A few days earlier, by the same polling company.”
Will they be asking the same people as in the earlier poll?
Could wait a week or two before commissioning the poll?
In the event of a no vote in next years referendum will we have?
1. Question worked out.
2. Questions worked out…,
Tick the statement you agree most with:
The rest of UK subsidises Scotland.
Scotland subsidises the rest of UK.
Neither subsidises each other.
Braco’s question really exposes the total hypocrisy of the unionist parties vaguely suggesting jam tomorrow to get people to vote no, given that they blocked a more powers question.
Leaving aside the proposed poll, ‘Yes’ supporters should never miss any opportunity to expose this hypocrisy.
David,
I totally agree that we YES supporters should consistently expose that particular hypocrisy, because in my experience, it relies on being casually repeated by the politically interested but uninformed. These are surprisingly important people when it comes to opinion forming in communities.
If you hit them with my question or similar, it generally stops the uninformed in their tracks and kicks off an interesting discussion because they are politically interested.
It also has the benefit of differentiating the diehard disinformation Unionist from the ‘uninformed’ but generally interested, as they tend to go straight into obvious spin mode.
I see either situation being helpful, as even if you make no headway in the discussion with the person in front of you, you will have an impact on those silent ears listening in with interest around the discussion.
People do like to listen in on a wee political rammy, although they may fear any involvement.
What they get are the different views tested in front of them and as they have not publicly staked any part of their reputation or emotions on either side or risked public humiliation or ridicule (as those involved in the rammy have) they are very, very likely to be influenced by the most logical and well informed position. That is the Pro Indy argument and that is the power of a grass roots campaign.
I think the process of coming up with very succinct questions for this Wings poll could also have the very valuable effect of creating some killer questions to be used by anyone who finds themselves in the above situation.
These are not, as Scottish Skier pointed out, classic poll questions in order to gain valuable data, but more a type of question that using FACTS set up the hypocrisy of the Unionist position and logically leads the ‘undecided’ and ‘uninformed’ toward the light, (and all apparently on their own steam).
I know ten such questions, on the various political ‘themes’ that have been and are being spouted by betterNO would be of enormous help to myself in such situations. Maybe once the poll is completed we could look into converting the poll questions more into the type of discussion weapon that I am talking about?
Option 3
In the event of Scotland voting against independence do you think the Westminster will:
Increase the powers devolved to the Scottish Parliament
Decrease the powers devolved to the Scottish Parliament
Leave the Scottish Parliament’s powers unchanged.
It was mentioned that we should be asking people’s opinions on things, rather than what they know. I originally agreed with this but have now completely changed my mind. I’ve spoken to a fair few people who realised that more is spent on pensions than JSA thanks to the “British Public Wrong About Nearly Everything” survey.
A lot of people do not know what is already devolved and what is reserved and I think it would be good to highlight this by having a “tick which powers you think are devolved” question. It would be extremely interesting to know what percentage of “yes” voters got right compared to “no” voters. It would also be interesting to know which powers people think are used well.
With regards to the wording of questions Rev, I would speak to the people on here who know what they’re talking about and have survey experience. If you are unsure about one or want to test variations of a question out then put it up and let us vote.
Braco,
Well said.
The unionist camp, led by the BBC and media, are displaying a huge mirage of ‘more powers’ in an attempt to dupe the electorate into voting no.
It is the ‘mother of all hypocrisies’ in this debate. And we can counter it with an un-disputable fact – the unionist parties are responsible for blocking a ‘more powers’ question. They have no credibility in suggesting ‘more powers’ now. But as WoS has already pointed out, they actually mean ‘more responsibilities’, not ‘more powers’. In other words, a higher burden with reduced resources.
It is the first thing a YES supporter should mention in any discussion relating to the Independence referendum.
It will make the interested but uninformed wake up, and it will shut up the diehard disinformation unionists before they go into their spin mode.
And yes, OUR poll questions should, more than anything, expose the top 10 hypocrisies of the unionists, and the results used as a discussion weapon in our campaign for a YES vote.
In my view, the YES campaign has only one real opponent – the BBC.
A bit late to this, and my first post too, but having chipped in and voted for option 3, here goes…
I think rather than ask a variation of all the variations posted above, could we instead ask why people believe that voting no will bring their promised land? I realise that ‘why’ is rather an open question for a poll (really, you think?) because we then need to provide answers that are then open to charges of leading, but that said, there can’t be that many reasons why people are voting no. So what about this?
Do you intend to vote yes or no?
If no…
Do you intend to vote no because:
a) you want more devolution / devo max but not independence?
b) you don’t want more devolution or any increase in the powers of the Parliament?
If a) then:
Why do you believe that voting no to self-determination / independence will result in more devolution?
a) The UK-based parties will keep their promises and focus on Scotland because we voted no to independence like they asked us to
b) Our Scottish MPs would be united in piling on the pressure onto their English colleagues
c) Because the UK parties will be scared we have another referendum and vote yes
d) I just do
e) Dunno
It’s an absurd set of answers of course, so perhaps it fulfills one criterion that we make the no voters think hard about the consequences of their no vote, and a second one that perhaps provides a focus for argument.
In the event of a ‘No’ vote the Westminster government will:
treat Scotland better than England
treat Scotland the same as England
treat Scotland worse than England.
The first is what BT want us to believe but can’t promise.
The second means austerity, nhs cuts, tuition fees etc
The third is what has been happening and we know will continue.