A matter of scale
Posted on
April 12, 2015 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
A super-alert reader pointed out something about today’s Sunday Politics that we hadn’t noticed. Before the galaxy-class trainwreck that was the Scottish leaders’ debate, the networked section of the show had a piece on Scottish polling, and our eagle-eyed viewer spotted that the chart of projected seats wasn’t in proportion.
So we measured, and this is what it should have looked like.
Still, we suppose they can’t ask people to turn their TVs sideways.
Yup, I noticed that too. It’s so difficult to keep on top of all their dirty tricks though, it’s beginning to wash right over me.
If the SNP get even half that number I will be delighted.The only coherent comment I heard in the “debate” was the FM saying “Listen to the people”
Take nothing for granted and let us work right up to the close of polling.
No, no. Keep it as it was or people will start to think its a SNP runaway and not turn up to leaflet etc or even worse not turn out to vote on the basis that its all sewn up. 🙁
Noticed it was out of proportion but not by that much. 🙂
So you being fair Stu. Keep the 53 and scale down the other numbers. Bet it looks even better.
BBC/Labour couldn’t bear to look at the model to scale and see how small they are in the polls.
Brilliant, such a simple debunk but then the best ones always are!
Well done to whoever spotted it.
This is exactly the trick used every day by the BBC in the weather forecast maps.
Belittle everything Scottish!
You know it makes sense!
Give them at the beeb a break, Rev. To get it in true proportion we’d have had to turn our TVs sideways!
It’s what they’ve been doing with the weather map for years
Another example of deception from what is perceived to be the voice of authority when it comes to delivering information.
Yep …Pravda is alive and well in the UK
Hmm. You can understand why they wouldn’t want people to see this. More of the same from the BBC
Having said that, Bill Whiteford did a really good interview on Good Morning Scotland yesterday, with Dr. Phillips O’Brien from Glasgow University where some good points are made on Trident. Indeed he describes it as a ‘political system’ rather than a deterrent. Listen from 20. minutes in.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05p9sd5#auto
Shame this view hasn’t been aired in the more popular radio and TV shows. Not many people listening to political chat that early on a Saturday morning. People still only hearing the scare stories on prime time.
Instead of having folks turn their TV’s sideways or buy even bigger TV’s perhaps the *ahem* good old BBC could scale the other three party graphics DOWN! 😉
Oh no wait a minute that would never work would … I mean we HAVE to have Tories,Lib Dems and Labour being shown on BBC as actually EXISTING in Scotland otherwise what is the point of the BBC! 😀
Must be same person that did UK weather map for bbc.
They would have to have shown it with number of seats as the “X” axis in order to fit on the TV!
Modifying graph formats is way outside of BBC Scotland’s remit.
Looks like nobody is taking a blind bit of notice of their tactical wheels…
and this was before Murphy’s car crash performance today.
Well done to the Wings type for spotting it.
You know, for a bunch of subsidised, Nazi, evil cybernating, chainsaw threatening vandals we seem to be doing ok.
Its a bit like when the BBC show the weather map,and Scotland looks like a tiny wee country,next to the sprawling land masx of England.
Famous 15,
Aye Nicola is right and says ‘listen to the people’ smug murphy then thinks ‘no, listen to me’.
In essence that is the problem for Labour, they want to TELL voters what to think to suit their own anglo centric policies, instead of actually listening to what the people of Scotland want.
Just as an aside, I do not expect the SNP will eventually win as many seats as shown above (it would be nice if they did), but even less than that amount will be an enormous leap in support, giving Scotland a true voice in Westminster that for over three hundred years, it has not had.
Friends taking me and my partner out for a curry tonight, the sun is shining, St. Johnstone beating Dundee highlights just watched and now this proportional graph
things are no bad.
I was hoping for a few examples 🙁
Remember the McCoist graphic?I think there were a few Better Together ones as well.
I had to zoom out on my browser to fit it in 🙂
Oh that BBC weather map, the one that shows most of France, Belgium, Holland, all of Norway, Sweden, and Denmark, England full sized, and Scotland reduced to the size of Yorkshire.
I cannot think of any other country anywhere that does this for weather. Good old blatantly biased anti Scotland BBC.
Nah, it’s still wrong, the SNP column and Labour column should be swapped thereby giving a much more accurate impression of a middle finger gesture.
Some voters vote for the underdog
Some voters vote for the perceived winners
Some voters vote for the policies
Some voters vote for the candidate
Some voters vote for a change
Some voters vote out of revenge
NICHOLA AND THE SNP TICK ALL THE ABOVE
Mind and take someone to the polling station with you.
There was a piece on Radio Scotland this morning about global brands and how they could lose their value overnight. It said that the BBC was one of the top brands in the world for trustworthiness. Let’s hope that your clinical exposure of their deceit will render them worthless.
Famous15, there’s no point saying listen to the people. Jim Murphy would still find a way to drown their voices out by shouting over them.
There will be a new Function introduced to MS Excel soon to help scale the ever diminishing ratio between SNP and all Unionist Parties
Expect a Greens patch release around 2016 to help everyones graphical appreciation.
Stu
Can you run those figures through other chart types..could be like Wheres waldo on some displays
Not only is the scaling way off in the original, but the fact that the seat projection numbers are ABOVE the bars for the Labour, Lib Dems and Conservative parties and BELOW the bar for the Scottish National Party – leads to a further shortening effect on visual perception.
Very sneaky indeed.
BBC trustworthy? Nah, it’s just the way the BBC tell them – to the unwary. Wakey wakey.
Rule Britannia, Britannia rules the waves. Question, is there any other country with a song with comparable lyrics?
Bogey man Russia? Argentina? China?
The mouse that roared, until non-agressive, non-acquisitive nations realised how Britannia operates.
If you want a smile..put the figures in at createagraph:
http://nces.ed.gov/nceskids/createagraph/default.aspx?ID=8623650381404f5b82b011bb409149d9
Rev Stu,
It looks a bit like your rocketing page views numbers as well.
I wonder if they are in any way related?
I’d say the first attempt at the graphic was prepared by a woman.
The second graphic reflects how a bloke (the Rev) see’s things
It’s a month too soon for this post.
I’ve just seen the start of the Sunday Politics debacle – couldn’t stand more than 5 minutes – and started wishing Nicola would stand up and say ” I didn’t know I was to be questioned by 4 people at once!” Not professional, I know, that’s why she’s a great politician and I’m not!
I’ve honestly never witnessed such a shambles. Any viewer who thinks Nosferatu would make a trustworthy politician capable of reason after that display shouldn’t really have a vote.
All of which swells the SNP vote after every episode of BBC negativity; keep them coming!
All of these graphics faux pas add up to a contrived effort to delude the uk into believing the line that we are small, poor and stupid.
An honest portrayal of that bar graph would have shown a break in the middle to indicate that it was higher than this but truncated to fit it on the screen.
And it would never occur to those @ Labour Central eh sorry BBC to show as a horizontal bar graph .
Naw that’s too obvious .
After all we are too stupid ! Right ?
Well SNP just can’t win any more seats.
You can only get 53 on a luxury coach hire.
They’ll need to buy a whole block of flats and call it Don Roberto Tower.
I think it’s in the interest of the BBC and Westminster to keep pushing this line about the SNP gaining 50+ seats. Then when the SNP win 40-45 it can be spun to say the SNP failed.
It just goes to show that the BBC has not stopped and will not stop until their view of order is back in place.
From my reading of things there is no chance of that happening for another 20 years at least. Once people have moved their vote it is very hard for them to move back.
It’s like giving up on a soap opera once you stop following the story you never go back.They feel as if they have wasted their effort previously and are then embarrassed about it.
Of course, they could have rotated the graphic 90 degrees.
When you try XY Graphs it reminds me of The Plough constellation..
One great swish and we can cut away the deadwood
hey Rev, did you notice that Oor Ruthie made a mistake as well, she stated that people shouldn’t be better off in work than in receipt of benefits, check the broadcast, we had to listen a few times ti make sure we hadn’t misheard????
Murphy is an ignorant,rude little man. He has nothing to say but shouts a lot. Jim your personal ratings are in the low minuses..have some humility and give your gob a rest. The world can see you for what you are. The more you shout the more we hate you…hang on actually please carry on you Muppet.
Grizzle McPuss @ 7.10
Now now keep it clean ,eh political.
LOL
@desimond says: 12 April, 2015 at 6:57 pm:
“… Can you run those figures through other chart types..could be like Wheres waldo on some displays
If it was a proportional Pie Chart the Unionists would be starving worse than sanctioned DWP clients and with no voter food banks.
After this morning’s “debate”, I would be very surprised if the SNP’s share of the vote did not tip into 50% or 51% of the Scottish electorate.
Like the Red Tories electing James Francis Murphy, the BBC just do not get it. If I did not know better, I would think that the BBC is run by SNP moles!
By the way, loved Hosie schooling a BBC drone yesterday. Did anyone else think it seemed like a silly little girl in front of the headmaster? After every answer by Hosie, completely demolishing her Pravda propaganda, there was what is called a “pregnant pause”, followed by much “but…but…but…” and then fumbled repeating of her previous question (James Cook school of interviewing), as if she would somehow miraculously receive a different answer!
Damn it last post hasn’t materialised but not to worry I know why … I forgot to remove the “http://” from the links … DOH! 😛
Chitterinlicht says:
Must be same person that did UK weather map for bbc.
You mean like this Chitterinlicht? 😉
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=egHXCF9Knn4
The same map as used by BBC when deciding what is and what is not *ahem* local news. 😀
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhL57cjN8xY
Robert Peffers
Pie Chart…Its like Pacman meets Zippy from Rainbow!
Found myself agreeing with nick clegg earlier – he said he would take away fee TV licence from those pensioners who were well enough off…
This is a wee trip down memory lane for me. I remember a bar graph on (I think it was) Scotland Tonight during the run up to the indyref showing the most recent polling figures when yes were just a few points behind.
The graph showed a far more significant difference between the two side than there should have been.
With ruler and calculator(!) I worked out that for the difference to be as broad the base of the graph would have to be about 18″ below my telly.
I recall posting about it on Wings… happy days screaming at the TV and posting here!
I also think the Rev has posted on similar graphic deception before. The MSM have form on this. Well spotted though.
Word out on the political street is that both Willy Wet and the Smurph are claiming victory in the shambles of a Scottish leaders’ debate.
Burst out laughing at the two bar charts.
Kind of puts into context the referendum result at 11 to 9?
On the subject of the BBC weather map, around the time this new “improved” map was introduced I was at an event where the BBC weather reporter of the day was giving a presentation as part of the Orkney Science Festival. Anyway, at the end she asked for questions and was pressed quite vigorously as to why this was done and what was the benefit. I distinctly recall her fumbling about and havering about “processing” but ultimately she couldn’t give a cogent reason as to why it was being changed.
IA, they can claim all they like, but their behaviour was an insult to Scotland and an insult to women. They will seriously regret pissing off Scottish women!
No, but they could turn their heads.
Once again we are on the receiving end! We need more campaign ammunition.
A Wee Red Book with all the embarassing facts about the UK, properly sourced detail about its poor performance, and who are, as her Majesty once memorably said, the winners and losers in the game. A half competent, independent press should have done this by now
The establish relies on the strategy of presenting UK as the ideal, and making invidious, often false, comparisons to the detriment of its challengers. We need to be resourced to throw these back and obliterate them.
It was a Scotsman who wrote Rule Britannia
I have made a complaint to the bbc. I know.
I did it online,I’m knackered.
But I persevered, pointless I know but I hope it just adds to the number.
@scottieDog
Taking away fee or free?
If Charging well off pensioners…
Will these be like Prescriptions..too costly to means test so why bother?
The ‘Sunday Caption Competition Time’ picture on twitter with Jim Murphy and Ruth Davidson should be put on Billboards throughout Scotland with the words,
‘This tells you all you need to know’.
https://twitter.com/BathgateSNP/status/587318509450985472
Jim’s keen on harking back to 1924 so he may be interested to know the last time Labour won less than 4 seats was in December 1910 (with 3 seats).
So, to put a positive spin on this projection, they are on course to beat their haul for December 1910.
Jim Murphy, at the start of his leadership of the Labour Party in Scotland drew a “line in the sand” for Ed Miliband giving warning that he would be his own man in Scotland and would not consult on any matter devolved to the Scottish Parliament. This begs the question ” will Scottish Labour MP’s take the Labour party whip on all business or will they follow instructions from Jim Murphy on matters where Scotlands interests are not being given due process, eg the Eu’s Common Fisheries Policy over which Scotland has very little input and has suffered badly, (and continues to do so) by result.
Gosh did I just get a glimpse of the red arrows trailing only red and white smoke? Must tune in to next episode of Masterchef for the full footage. It’s bound to be the three colours from the apron isn’t it; for that’s all the ever do, we know that, don’t we
@boris
I look forward to seeing Jim, Ruth and Wullie being scrutised on how much did they personally input to their Party Manifesto to help protect Scotlands interests
Famous15,
“If the SNP get even half that number I will be delighted.”
I am so angry with those scum, I will be a bit disappointed if the SNP win only 58 seats.
The axis-distortion trick is a favourite tactic of the Liberal Democrat Election Literature Department, frequently employed in graphics of the “only the Liberal Democrats can beat/stop Party X here” variety.
They’re not the only ones at it, of course:
https://archive.today/1XOFD
https://archive.today/EQ09E
OT – Did anyone catch the Campaign Sidebar on R4 http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05rbxhq (about 14 minutes in) describing the power of the minority.
…a matter of scale.
Looking at the second picture, it just goes to show you the vast gap that lies between the reasoned and intellectual debate that the SNP would like to discuss, and the narrow minded and bitter discourse that the Unionist parties want to continue.
And it this that the 3 Unionist parties are seemingly failing to grasp. What they can’t seem to grasp is that tall bar is how politically aware the electorate are …and how they are not.
And that speaks volumes…
As HandandShrimp said above, if they had done it truthfully then they would have shown a break in the middle of the column to indicate that it was actually taller but had to be truncated to fit the graphic on screen.
That they didn’t is just another example of why the BBC cannot be trusted as a news organisation.
Never – never – take what the BBC say on trust. Always – always – question and seek the ‘real’ truth’.
I think the repercussions of today’s antics from both Murphy and the BBC are going to be felt for a long time yet given the mood in Twitter-land.
…and the progressive parties just keep seeing their memberships rising.
Tackety Beets @ 7.26pm
Consider my mouth now washed out for lowering the tone
Just a thought. Since there are no MPs, only candidates, I assume the ‘old’ MPs’ salaries will now have stopped. So for 30-40-50 Unionists, the gravy train has already dried up! Forever!
The new chart, produced in suitable proportion, will from here on in will be referred to as a Westminster Dead Heat!
Due to the incumbent parties already controlling and owning everything, they get to maintain the status quo and keep the lot,
including Scotland, in the event of a draw.
This has been a deliberate and very kind act by the collective Ruling Parties as they hope to reduce their carbon foot-print by travelling down to Westminster in one 7 seater Taxi.
“It’s a month too soon for this post.”
It’s not a prediction.
The BBC see the SNP, all who were active for the Yes campaign and everyone who still believes Scotland’s future is better by being independent as the enemy, the enemy within. On this premise they act accordingly.
Do remember just prior to the referendum vote that the BBC went into a ‘war footing’ against Scottish independence.
Never forget. Never forgive.
@desimond
Sorry it was ‘free’ – it was the possibility of having less bbc viewers which excited me!
Following from this mornings argy bargy , I have just caught up with STV News this evening .
The highlight o the day for sure ;
Camera on Nicola as she walks from main room to a corridor , shakes the hand o a young fairhaired lassie wearing a brown apron. After Nicola passes the expression on the young lassie’s face was CLASSIC ! I enjoyed so much I watched it 3 times .
If you know the girl in question , give her our regards ….. highlight o the day for sure .
Right on the money “Dal Riata” First demand on May 8th
Devolution of “broadcasting”
Well spotted! What a shower they really are. All they had to do was change the scale of all parties but no way.
No doubt gorgeous pouting Donelda will reissue her “stop the vile separatist contemptible abuse for poor little BBC Scotland twits”
http://www.broadcastnow.co.uk/news/bbc-condemns-attacks-on-scottish-journalists/5086174.article
As for the BBC distorting maps,facts,quotes its all the same day after day, even the Channel looks a bit too wide. After Scotland becomes independent maps will be accurate, however it would be a bit of fun to shrink engelund and enlarge bits like Wales and Cornwall/Devon. In Japan when they screen starring John Wayne especially the war films they dub his voice with that of a sqeeky old Japanese geezer, just a wee joke.
I’m afraid it’s unlikely to be nearly that given what the polls show about the percentage of unionists willing to vote tactically to try to stop the SNP, it’s not likely to be anything like that many SNP seats, nor nearly that few Labour, Lib Dem or even Conservatives.
One poll found 44% of Conservative voters in Scotland say they’ll vote tactically for Labour to try to stop the SNP winning in their constituency (just under 17% of votes in Scotland were for the Conservatives in 2010 – and the referendum may motivate a fair number of them who didn’t bother voting in previously safe Labour seats to turn out the same way they did in the referendum).
Also 31% of Labour voters said they’d vote Conservative to stop the SNP winning in their constituency. And 58% of Conservatives said they’d vote Lib Dem to stop the SNP – which might even dent Salmond’s chances of becoming an MP again.
If there wasn’t a lot of tactical voting, the SNP would win with a landslide on the largest minority of the vote under First Past the Post, but with tactical voting, they’ll likely gain some seats, but unlikely to have anything like 47.
@ Russell Ramsay – A Scotsman wrote rule Britannia – now c’mon tell me, was he called Murphy. or Brown, or Mundel, or Wilson, or,or? I want names!
Unbelievable! – I have just heard the BBC Scotland News Bulletin at 9pm. After describing their earlier leaders’ car crash “debate” as “fiery”, they then actually had the temerity to broadcast a couple of minutes of Murphy spouting his shite about how Labour would fund its fantasy programme of Santa Claus quote by the presenter. Shocking BBC pro-Murphy bias. Situation normal.
“I’m afraid it’s unlikely to be nearly that “
IT’S NOT A PREDICTION.
I remember watching the test transmissions for BBC TV in Leith Provident Co-op shop window. Then the first actual transmission. It was the funeral of King George VI on 15 February 1952. but TV was only officially started four weeks later when the Kirk O’Shotts transmitter broadcast, “Television Comes To Scotland”, to the whole UK from the large Edinburgh music studio.
Later my then best pal joined the BBC at their Glasgow Studio and I was in the studio every Saturday and many Sundays. I was there for the very first White Heather Club Broadcast and the first ever TV play produced in Scotland.
The BBC may have only been a part time service back then but the programmes were worth watching. The normal programmes of today are utterly brain numbing and dumbed down to the lowest possible denominator. I’m entitled to a free licence now and couldn’t even be bothered renewing it when I became 75 y.o.
Dire isn’t the word for it. I only watch live TV now in my pal’s house and that’s not very often I can tell you. He’s not into computers and I can pick up my home net from his house so he and I end up in their front room with my laptop. He won’t comment but loves reading wings. His wife is the TV addict while he isn’t too interested – except for the golf and tennis. It’s sad to see a once great TV broadcaster performing so badly now.
Help please..anyone know where is link to S. Hosie interview couple of days ago??
.
Joining in and trying to catch up with one eye on the golf.
Good spot on the graph even I was surprised. Weather map spot on, here is a bit of light relief. But it makes the point well. 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egHXCF9Knn4
Also seems most likely that the columns weren’t in scale simply because if they were it wouldn’t have fitted on the screen.
O/T
Article in the independent about the cost of PFI. Costing the UK £220 BN – a tory idea embraced by labour. Worth a read…
https://archive.today/fxub2
Oops forgot the u-tube rule so post gone by-byes.
Anyhoo! Good spot on the graph even I was surprised at how vast the difference actually is. As for the weather map, spot on.
Here it is as seen by a couple of Scots. 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egHXCF9Knn4
Some commenters taking this as evidence of bias. It really can’t be taken as that. If it had been to scale it wouldn’t have fitted on most TV or computer screens unless it was made an image so small you couldn’t read the numbers or party names on it. Stu points this out with his “can’t ask people to turn their TVs sideways” line.
ditto for it being a “dirty trick” – nope, had to be out of scale or it wouldn’t have fitted on the screen at any size where any of the writing or numbers were readable.
I really want to know why dumfries keeps voting tory, It’s just seems so strange with the rest of the country voting for pretty much anyone else.
@velofello
Brian Tain!
Ana Gram
Tactical Voting .
I posted months ago on this , I cannot see a Tory voting for Labour candidates FULL STOP
e.g. Take Murphy or Doogies constituency , is a Tory gonna vote to get a Labour MP in despite their own desire to have a Tory GVT ?
Libdums , says it all , they will ho&r themselves to work with either Tory Party, so their votes could be all over the place .
Labour may vote for Libdems but not Tory ?
Aparrantly more SNP member sign ups this afternoon . YES !
Apparently ! Doh !
Louis B Argyll,
is this the interview you are referring to ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AXkYmqBUnA
.
@ Duncan McFarlane
As several people have pointed out, the correct response when one column is so disproportionate is to insert a break part-way up the column (and the axis, if that is displayed).
Failure to do that indicates either ignorance or a deliberate attempt to mislead.
@Duncan McFarlane
‘If there wasn’t a lot of tactical voting, the SNP would win with a landslide on the largest minority of the vote under First Past the Post, but with tactical voting, they’ll likely gain some seats, but unlikely to have anything like 47.’
If that Yougov tactical vote polling is correct, best case scenario for SNPouters is 42 SNP seats, 17 seats for Unionists.
http://tinyurl.com/oo9axnk
I’ll take that.
@Ethan Blair 9:34pm
It’s the “Duke of Buccleuch” effect.
A lot of folks down there shit scared of being turfed out of their tied cottages/losing jobs
Louis B Argyll says:
12 April, 2015 at 9:24 pm
Help please..anyone know where is link to S. Hosie interview couple of days ago??
Try this link
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10153327789968816&set=o.8259177988&type=2&theater
Maybe this tactical voting pish is a smokescreen so they can fiddle the postals. Good excuse and blame any shocks on the tactical votes.
Will they vote tactically for the rest of their lives ? I will not be changing from SNP for the rest of mine.
Tactical voting would utterly destroy at least one ,if not two unionist Parties,over a few elections,and that is fair reward for deceit.
I have a wee bit of training in statistics. I was always told to use the type of chart which was easiest to read and shows the relationship between the various elements most clearly.
With such a huge difference in the sample sizes, something like a pie chart would have demonstrated the various relationships more clearly.
Someone at the state broadcaster would know that. Course they would…….
On the doors the handful of Labour voters pretty much always say its because their ancestors always did. I don’t regard that as a particularly 100 watt answer. However, what would the realistic chances be of those people “tactically” voting Cons or Libdems?
The tactical vote for a Labour supporter is SNP. That way they might get the sort of policies their ancestors actually fought for.
Maybe the stupidity on show is a unionist tactic, an intellectual-scorched-earth-policy.
Expect to be bored to tears as they dumb down the debate.
They’ll stop rising in challenge and go off on their own deliberately blinkered bandwagon.
They’ll be keeping a few nasty smears til the last days….then bury all the news under some well timed anti-terror promo.
They pay the trades,
To buy some votes.
They placed their men,
Who rig the press.
They act like brats,
Who scare old ladies.
Creatures of political night.
They closed their minds,
forgot to care.
Now whistle,
While their Rome still burns.
Thanks DaveDee.
Duncan McFarlane at 9.07
This tactical voting scenario is being spun in desperation by unionist media and I wouldn’t be too quick to accept any suggested result of it.
In Argyll and Bute the pollsters have Alan Who?, our LibDem MP, sunk without trace but he is in frantic activity telling Tories and Labour supporters to vote for him as the only choice to beat the SNP’s Brendan O’Hara.
The Tories however are telling LibDems to vote for them to beat O’Hara. Senior Labour figures told their support to vote Tory but many of them are voting SNP to get rid of the Tory/LibDem alliance that put Alan Who? in last time.
Many SNP supporters voted LibDem or Labour in A&B last time to keep the Tory out and then saw the LibDem putting the Tory in and they will be voting for O’Hara this time.
Confusion abounds – and I’m sure this is the case in other areas.
Our canvas returns show huge tactical voting intention – a huge majority voting SNP this time to stick one right up them.
The only fly in our ointment is the Helensburgh and Lomond (or Coulport/Faslane)vote because historic Argyll and Bute is always happy to vote SNP if the SNP seems likely to win
Failure to do that indicates either ignorance or a deliberate attempt to mislead.
Not wanting to excuse the BBC, but many years ago a friend of mine wrote some software for STV so they could graphically display results on election night.
He found that a few the media types didnt understand the concept of a percentage and none of them could describe what a percentage swing meant.
Iain says:
12 April, 2015 at 10:00 pm
If that Yougov tactical vote polling is correct, best case scenario for SNPouters is 42 SNP seats, 17 seats for Unionists.
And of course, a barrel full of lost deposits.
(perhaps they consider that a price worth paying).
Re the chart, there is no reason why they couldn’t have created a bar chart running horizontally rather than vertically to suit tv screen shapes
Re Dumfries voting Tory – most of Dumfries sits within the D&G constituency and votes mainly Labour, until now, Dumfries is moving heavily towards SNP.
The DCT constituency looks as though it’s been carefully drawn to favour a Tory result, bear in mind it takes in fairly big populations in Gretna, Annan and Lockerbie – all of which are big commuter towns for Carlisle, plus lots and lots of retirees from England settling along the M74 benefitting from Holyrood policies but with allegiance to the south
@Bob Mack
Tactical voting would utterly destroy at least one ,if not two unionist Parties,over a few elections,and that is fair reward for deceit.
Please God dont let it take that long.
@Duncan McFarlane
Think you should check out the ‘What Scotland thinks site’ bud 🙂
and the Profs no cheer Leader of the SNP
I think the dyed in the wool Labour voters are too thick to understand tactical voting. Maybe I am being harsh!
@Bittie Glakit
Thanks for that, never seen it but had heard comments about it.
Just put two polling station sized SNP posters in the windows that’s shouty too but a sign of the times. Thought ‘she who must be obeyed’ (doesn’t say much on politics) would baulk but no! OK says she I’m with Nicola…well Jim your not a popular chap.
She even managed the ‘Jim saviour of the Union’ behind closed doors yesterday…but I heard her chuckling. 🙂
Why didn’t they just pile the three unionist parties together under a common heading of “Tories”?
Accident !
On NOw ,set record CH4 + 1
Goggle Box CH4 , Priceless !
If that happens, then I will streak down the Grand Place here in Brussels, wearing nothing but a smile.
Personally, I just want to see Murphy wiped out.
Hi Indigo , see post @ 7.13 Pm
Simples !
Great minds an a that !
You could compare the corrected chart above to the £100 question (a contestant didn’t know) and needs to ‘ask the audience’ on Who Wants To Be a Millionaire..
Question: What do we breathe in to stay alive?
A) Oxygen
B) Carbon Dioxide
C) Hydrogen
D) Nitrous Oxide (Ha-Ha)
One of the answers lets you live, the others either kill you or put you to sleep.
Here’s Fred with the weather!
O/T WGD has been called ‘an evil cybernat’ by Gilligan but he posts –
”Of course I’ve still got a very long way to go before I reach the dizzying heights of evil cybernatdom achieved by Stu Campbell of Wings over Scotland.
Stu Campbell is so evil that even things that haven’t happened at all are still his fault.
Stu Campbell was on the grassy knoll in Dallas and shot JFK with a kitten he’d infected with ebola and stuffed into a polonium laced teapot.
And the kitten was English. True fact that. It will be coming to an SNPout hashtag near you very soon.”
LOL
In fairness, I think this can be filed under extreme nitpicking – I’m as annoyed by the BBC’s attitude towards the SNP, and their ‘handling’ of Jim Murphy, as any other reader of this site, but this is nothing really.
The yellow bar was still bigger than the others. Arguing over correct ratios is perhaps an argument too far in the direction of ‘vile cybernat’ than I think people should go.
According to the Daily Record, in his rare moments of relaxation Jim Murphy is making plans to end world poverty, apart from rare spells of gardening, he is also very near to finding a cure for cancer and is convinced he has found the magic spell required for world peace. Meantime the devious Nicola Sturgeon is set on destroying the world he loves . Jim is fortunate to have in support Willie Rennie and Ruth Davidson two seasoned stalwarts who are blessed with the intellect of King Soloman and the political wisdom of John Smith and Pocahontas combined. These three magnificent amigo’s will do all that they can to stop the child of the devil and her fellow separatists who are trying to take our outpost of “England’s green and pleasant land” towards being Europes Afghanistan. The foregoing is most definately true since the Record is renowned for it’s even-handed approach and is incapable of bias reporting. Breaking news:: Vatican news release. Jim is to be the next Pope.
@Luigi
Lost deposits…arent the Unionist Parties in enough debt as it is(strange Labours party debt never mentioned when FFA pops up)
See 12 to 15 mins in http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05p9sd5#auto for commentary on tactical voting
Boris, I have it on good authority that Jim Murphy will not accept any Papal appointment as it would upset his friends and colleagues from Bitter Together – you know, the ones whose joy is to be “Up to their knees in Fenian blood”, and who gallantly attacked wee lassies carrying Saltires …
“ditto for it being a “dirty trick” – nope, had to be out of scale or it wouldn’t have fitted on the screen at any size where any of the writing or numbers were readable.”
Well, that’s not actually true. The numbers would be exactly the same size as they were, and the Lab/Con/Lib bars would be smaller, but still visible at the correct scale.
But the point wasn’t that it showed “bias”, just that you should always distrust graphs that don’t have axes.
Interesting. The National tweeting about Salmond exclusive saying there will be no deficit on further devolution. No doubt involving the Smith principle of ‘no detriment’ – That whatever is devolved should leave Scotland in no better or worse a position overall.
That debate on the Sunday Politics show was something else. I think they’ve really got to get drop Willie Rennie and Ruth Davidson from these debates; they contribute nothing but noise.
In fairness to Ruth, I think she seems as frustrated as anyone with not getting a word in, but Willie Rennie just seems to generate a Phil Spectoresque ‘wall of snarl’ which just makes it impossible to hear what anyone else is saying.
We saw this guy , Jonathan Portes last year .
Here he is on BBC recently supporting Nicola on Economics and Anti Austerity .
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=956467501039773
DimJim implied that He would be a shoe in to be elected, well a wee bitty news fur you Jimbo the People will make sure you Pine Box is a tight fit, when they bury You in a landslide.
I think that the tactical voting strategy is a really unwise idea for the unionist parties.
Firstly it leads to the possibility of the Tories getting extra M.Ps in Scotland which might even put them over the line for an overall majority.
Secondly, even where the Tories come second to the SNP, they will gain a foothold in a constituency which will make it easier for them to win a seat next time around.
Thirdly, it adds to people’s impression that Conservative, Labour, and Liberal are actually just one party.
The mind boggles why the UK labour party are sanctioning this given that their best hope for forming a government is by doing some kind of deal with the SNP after the election, and really nothing to gain from the SNP not winning more seats.
——–
davidb says:
12 April, 2015 at 10:12 pm
..
The tactical vote for a Labour supporter is SNP. That way they might get the sort of policies their ancestors actually fought for.
————
That’s the thing. Labour Branch office MP’s might hate the SNP, but the traditional voters can get the best of both worlds. The SNP have pledged never to elect a Tory governnment. So it makes no difference to the chances of Miliband getting elected if that is their preference. And it would be a labour government dragged back to its traditional values and one that couldn’t just ignore Scotland. Seems like a good tactical choice even if you aren’t convinced by independence yet.
@Ronnie –
Murphy is, right now, 4/9 to keep his seat, but the numbers are closing. SNP is 9/4. Tories 20/1.
Sticks in my craw to say it, but the bookies were right last Sept, so these ‘basketed’ stats are worth keeping an eye on – if the odds on Murphy winning narrow any further in the next week/ten days, the momentum could snowball, no matter who the SNP has put up as candidate.
If a Murphlutter (see what I did there?) is anywhere near Evens before May 7th? he’s going to be out on his bony arse, and boy-oh-boy, is he going to regret coming the smart-arse with Brewer today – ‘You still here Jim?’ will be the cry as he approaches the mike in the early hours of May 8th to bid farewell to the guid folk of East Ren.
Full stats here:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/renfrewshire-east/winning-party
Just to say from Cadogan’s link to Radio Scotland’s 11/4/14 (yesterday) programme, if you continue to listen from about 20mins or so in, there is a rather excellent exposition of the Tirdent issue.
Dr Phillip(s) O’Brian from Glasgow University elaborates on the true geo political reasons for the retention of the nuclear system at Faslane. Exposing the fallacy of Fallon from the other day’s warmongering broadcast.
Well worth a listen for anyone needing a straight forward non politicised take on the issue presented in a sane and rational way.
Oh and on the Prof Curtice; the only living psephologist in existence.
He ends his little fast paced historical charting of the lab/con party political system and the differences north and south of the border over the years thus:
“Scotland has been much less of a two party game…what was that that Jim Murphy said? A battle between Labour and Conservative? That’s not frankly been true north of the border for some considerable time”
Why the presenter then quickly says “On that controversial note we’ll have to leave it there” as he ends this piece is puzzling.
If a fact is a fact there is nothing controversial about that fact.
(have to add, there was a humorous element to this little exchange, lets me know they know Murphy is ‘bullshitting’ his way through this ‘campaign’).
This merely adds credence to the fact: that Jim Murphy a liar.
This is not and has never been a ‘two party race’ between Lab/Con in Scotland for ‘some considerable time.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05p9sd5#auto
Was the guy who designed the chart the same guy who does the weather map with the shrunken Scotland?
Just Brilliant 🙂
https://twitter.com/ScotFree1320/status/587335706630029312/photo/1
It’s not a dirty trick or a conspiracy. There simply isn’t enough room on the screen to display it properly. Maybe if you turned it on its side??
@Duncan McFarlane says: 12 April, 2015 at 9:07 pm:
“I’m afraid it’s unlikely to be nearly that given what the polls show about the percentage of unionists willing to vote tactically to try to stop the SNP, it’s not likely to be anything like that many SNP seats, nor nearly that few Labour, Lib Dem or even Conservatives.”
Nah! Duncan, I’ll tell you the most likely thing to happen if the Tory, Labour and LibDems were to use too much tactical voting shall I? They would all end up as finished in Scotland. The Scottish electorate are now probably the most switched on in the World and the retribution would see the already begun process of retribution speed up for all future elections to Holyrood, Westminster and Europe.
Look at the newly signed up card carrying party members to all the independence parties. Every one of them is increasing their membership and every unionist party is haemorrhaging members like a halal butchered animal loses blood. These new members are obviously either from those who never before voted or from people who once voted for other parties. Yes there will be die-hard Unionists and friends and family of elected unionist but I think not nearly enough to make a great difference.
When push comes to shove the loyal party members will realise that if their votes are removed from their party the overall vote goes down and the party could hit the tipping point where they suffer a landslide like the Scottish Tories suffered. Think of that lone Tory MP from Scotland who may not even get re-elected this time round.
I think that by election night the party bosses will be begging members to get out to vote for their party. If you imagine they are not in terror right now just look at the promises they are all making as bribes just now.
The present tactical vote threat is their attempt to scare independence voters to back off. To date their threats seem to have been counter-productive with no halt in the numbers of new SNP recruits.
sorta re-blogged post here, adding in a few extra bits and pieces https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2015/04/12/pravdas-alive-and-well/
Willie Rennie is a ringer for “Tam” (aka Mark Cox) in Still Game. Willie is like Tam for he is an old pisser who enjoys sponging off his country. He is always conning the voters into giving him expenses or buying him Irnbrew. For example, he pretended to be a politician which prevented him from telling the truth about the yellow/red/bue/purple are basically all tories, which caused Scotland to lose out on independence.
http://caltonjock.com/2015/04/13/scottish-labour-to-be-reduced-to-driftwood-in-the-general-election-labour-top-dog-insider-sets-out-the-reasons-for-this/
Dave Dee@9.59
Thanks for the link as I had missed the interview.
She was toast.
What a team we have when the ‘lower ranks’ of our politicians are as good as this.
Gordoz – thanks for the link. Curtice is pretty unbiased, and an expert on elections, so i respect his opinion a lot. He’s probably right, but i don’t think anyone can predict what effect tactical voting against the SNP will have, or what scale it’ll happen on with absolute certainty. I’m sure he’s right thought that in a lot of seats the unionist voters and parties won’t agree on which party to vote tactically for, so it won’t work. Where it’s a close contest though, tactical votes could change it.
Robert – having most party members is good, but the relative number of party members is far from guaranteed to translate into the same percentage increase in votes.
And while plenty of people may change their vote in General elections as a result of the referendum, that could well go for both sides, with No voters more willing to vote tactically to try and stop another referendum, just as many Yes voters who used to vote Labour are voting SNP now.
(actually i think another referendum any time soon would be a big mistake as we’d likely end up with another No vote and really killing of the hopes of another referendum for a generation – newspaper headlines claiming “a majority now support independence” are actually false if you read the whole articles, as they only get a majority by not counting the don’t knows and won’t says – include them and it’s only the largest minority that support independence, under 50%, with the don’t knows being able to swing it either way.
Russell Ramsey says@ 7.50pm
“It was a Scotsman who wrote Rule Britannia”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4x7ODUKfPA
Rule Britannia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Thomson_(poet,_born_1700)
Thats nice.
BBC continues to attack Scottish Govt on BBC Scotland news online.
Headlines today: Hospitality sector hit by new drink driving limits and Scottish economy slows sharply.
Yep, project fear continues. No doubt it will intensify as they fear the real possibility of their corporate demise in our country.
Fucking leeches.
Ten years ago the national debt was around £400 billion, due to the incompetence of Brown and Osbourne it has now reached a staggering £1.51 trillion. Rising by £5000 per second.This costs every household in Britain £2000 per year in interest as our leaders pat themselves on the back and tell us about the great job they are doing.
Notice they have even got those brain dead bams on gogglebox debating if Nicola is telling the truth over memogate! Jesus wept. One was even slagging her appearance ala the Brit Nat zoomers.
Scotpine @ 6.16am mentioned BBC bias, pointing-out the story concerning the hospitality industry’s moans concerning the effects of the lowered drink-driving limits.
Funny how, nobody in the hospitality industry has ever pointed-out the truth of the situation: your average pub, club or hotel actually makes more profit out of soft drinks than out of alcoholic ones.
Under the old drink-driving laws, I always reckoned, I could get away with drinking one pint on a night out, if I was driving, thereaftet, it was soft drinks. Now, it is soft drinks all the way.
A pint of fresh orange and lemonade, my tipple of choice when driving, costs me £3.50 in my local pub, which is 35p (or if you like some 10%) more than my pint of Stella Artois in the same pub.
I don’t know the respective mark-ups, but, I am told by a friend in the trade, the ore people who come in and sup soft drinks, the more profit he makes.
The industry’s spokesmen and women never tell the public that.
@joemcg
I take it they are calling the French diplomats candour into question too then?
Regarding tactical voting: isn’t it the case that there is already a semi-permanent state of tactical voting in Scotland? Specifically, in those seats which were Tory until 1997.
Now, this Anyone But Tory tactical voting may be benefitting the SNP in some seats (Perth & Kinross), but hampering them in others (Stirling). If the SNP element of that voting is removed, combined with Labour and Lib Dem switchers to the SNP, I wonder where these seats end up?
@Wp
The worst thing about that period of debt increase is that at the same time the conventional economy was being dismantled and our ability for real growth and export greatly diminished. That’s in part why we have such a large trade deficit. A so-called capitalist country engaging in the destruction of capital ain’t a good idea.
So it’s not so much that the debt increases, it’s what you do with that borrowed money – this is Sturgeon’s point. It needs to get a bit worse so that it can get better but the investment has to be into the real economy not the production of debt in the city.
In the 1980s thatchers obsession was paying down national debt (we had oil revenues to help with that) whilst destroying our industrial base. Meanwhile Germany’s national debt was increasing because the government were taking a stake in their manufacturing base. Look at the difference between the two economies now.
Both the cameron and Blair/ Brown government used private debt to grow our economy. This is a one way street as we have seen. The reason for the 2008 crisis was too much PRIVATE debt – not public debt. Osborne.’s strategy has been to grow the economy through further private debt using schemes such as help to buy to push us into more debt. Our levels of private debt as a comparison to GDP is at 2007 levels, so it doesn’t take a genius to work out what happens next.
Add to record private debt a policy of austerity and you have another recession. Of course in a recession the government has to intervene and More deficit spending is used to bail out the banks. So in the end the national debt increases!
@scottieDog says:
12 April, 2015 at 7:31 pm
“Found myself agreeing with nick clegg earlier – he said he would take away fee TV licence from those pensioners who were well enough off…”
You sure it wasn’t “We would take away the TV licence fee from those pensioner who were well enough?”
Independence Live streaming from Faslane Blockade now.All gates blocked by protesters.
http://livestream.com/IndependenceLive/blockade
Lollysmum, just heard one dire BBBC reporter give her “there’s 150 people here” I am multiplying that by 10 as there ability to count is in direct ratio to how much it will damage the unionist parties.
I wonder if Gorgeous George Galloway has turned up for a nice wee publicity pic.
Brian Wilson rounded up yesterday’s debate succinctly this morning.
Total rammy, Nicola said the way ahead was to grow the economy, shouted down, Murphy when challenged on how they would balance the books said grow the economy, Nicola said that was what I said.
Pretty fair summation that will not please the Murphy camp.
So BBC .. A shepherd with a Twitter following is a technology story.?
Surely something else could be found by our broadcaster to engage, or, careful now, even educate viewers.
The BBC can even DUMB DOWN technology itself.
Next week “Click” might explain the cutting edge device known as the egg timer.
‘Gordon Brown, who as chancellor of the exchequer presided over the biggest boom and bust in British history while promising financial ‘prudence for a purpose’ spent,lent or otherwise guaranteed about 40 per cent of British GDP to save the banks’ ( Blyth, Austerity p.59)
‘In 2013 a rich British man and his wife bought their seventh house in London- a four storey £1.35 million Georgian townhouse -for their 27 year old son…This would be just another story of the rich buying up more property they can use if it were not that Nicky’s father was former prime minister Tony Blair’ (Dorling Inequality and the 1% p.105)
Both are informative reads if you have the time. Of course this is trickle down economics in action- economic inequality, food,housing insecurity and social exclusion trickling down via an avalanche to the 99%.
The Viagra Projection Correction. 🙂
I mentioned, yesterday, the use of jargon by political people and I gave the dictionary definition which explains why they use it. So today I’ll jump back on my old Barnett Formula hobby Horse and attempt to demystify the actual Formula by putting it in a more plain language form: –
The formula uses these factors: –
(1) – The, “population proportions”, of N.I, Scotland and Wales compared to that of England.
(2) – It multiplies this figure by the, “Comparability Percentage”, i.e. the different devolved functions that each devolved administration has.
(3) – Then multiplies that by the English, (a.k.a. United Kingdom), total, “Change of spend”, (a.k.a. Barnett Consequentials), in England.
The worked total gives the individual Block Grants allocation to, respectively, Northern Ireland, Scotland & Wales.
In spite of the continuous complaining whine, emanating from deepest Englandshire and always loudest from London, the truth remains that, if the Establishment had not attempted to be too clever by half, and had split the former bipartite union of kingdom into four countries each with the same devolved functions there would be no need for complicated formulae nor lying claims of unfairness.
Plain English, sans jargon, would leave no room for wild claims of unfairness to England or extra cash to Scotland.
Of course it would also have meant the total abolition of Establishment Ministries except for Defence and Foreign Office and each of the four countries with Full Fiscal Autonomy and thus Top Level Establishment Ministerial Troughers having their greedy snouts surgically removed from the trough, (and we couldn’t have that now, could we?
What makes the LAB CON LIB opposition shouting down strategy so pathetic is that here we have a useful and working Scottish Government proposing policy to better the lives of all Scots – (people who live and work in this country) – yet these three other UK dominated parties will actually work to decrease living standards here in Scotland to shore up the UK.
Not one policy, stated as coming down the line by any of these parties, if we vote for them, could be enacted without the approval of Westminster – and only a fool would discount the stated reluctance of both Westminster and the HoL to give Scots any more concessions, indeed they intend to cut back on Scotland.
So, in effect, the circus that pretends to be democracy in action, including the inexcusable mis-use of the civil and intelligence services, is nothing less than the UKs attempts to dismantle the positive intentions of the Scottish Government. All of which, in another environment, would be seen as subversive against the ‘state’.
Scale this.
TNS Scotland poll
SNP 52% (+6) Lab 24% (-6) Con 13% (-1) LD 6% (+3) Green 3% (-1)
http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll …
@boris says:
13 April, 2015 at 1:16 am
http://caltonjock.com/2015/04/13/scottish-labour-to-be-reduced-to-driftwood-in-the-general-election-labour-top-dog-insider-sets-out-the-reasons-for-this/
————–
Yes, the devolution argument is a perfect example of their hypocrisy.
First its NO to independence, get significant home rule instead.
Yet they are now campaigning AGAINST home rule within the UK. Why would people trust them ?
Lesley-Anne, I just finished late last night reading And The Land Lay Still by James Robertson. Very relevant and possibly the best book I have ever read. And there are 3000 books in our house.
TNS Scotland poll
SNP extend lead in TNS Scotland poll
SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).
Iain-Wow! Looks like project Murphy has been a rip roaring success lol!
You are probably working on this as I type but have listen to the Today programme 2h13m in where you will find the head of finance explaining the budget for the branch office.
There will be cuts in Scotland but possibly due to huge Barnett cons(equentials) there might not be , aye right.
Latest Scottish Westminster poll (TNS-BMRB)
SNP – 52% (+6)
LAB – 24% (-6)
CON – 13% (-1)
LDEM – 6% (+3)
GRN – 3% (-1)
There’s a lot of defenderising of the SNpout bettertogether “Truth” around now, which probably isn’t a coincidence. If you question the “truth” well then you’re in a vile cult and deluded and a liar and stop destroying teamGB etc.
Disappointing BBC r4 Today show, Jim Naughty v vile separatist Irvine Welsh. Its not the least surprising that Naughty is chicken but he is. Naughty bottled it and Irvine says Scottish Independence inevitable. Not if we have anything to do with it fcuker, Naughty didn’t say.
Onwards says:
13 April, 2015 at 10:08 am
Yes, the devolution argument is a perfect example of their hypocrisy. First its NO to independence, get significant home rule instead.
Yet they are now campaigning AGAINST home rule within the UK. Why would people trust them ?
Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.
Latest TNS – SNP 52% – Slabour 24% ….keep shouting Jim!
http://www.ourgeneration.me/2015/04/12/trident-is-a-product-of-past-times/
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2015/apr/former-libdem-cllr-backs-alex-salmond-gordon
Can we stop the infantile obsession some folk on here have of taking some minor free benefits away from the well off.
Apart from the fact that such measures will have absolutely no significant effect on the nations’s finances and the expense of means testing will in fact remove even any of that there is no reason why anybody whose comfort has meant they have paid all their taxes should then find they have to pay again for benefits their taxes have paid for.
Big Jock says:
13 April, 2015 at 10:20 am
Latest TNS – SNP 52% – Slabour 24% ….keep shouting Jim!
LOL, no wonder Murphy and all his red tory chums are running around screaming. Their feet are on fire!
@ john king
Rule Britannia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Thomson_(poet,_born_1700)
Uncanny resemblance to Blair McDougall.
Can you play the tune on a tuba?
@Nana
Oooooo that’ll leave a mark. 🙂
Seems project fear II (the return), is going down well with our electorate.
Who knew that if you keep slapping people down and treating them with contempt, that eventually they’ll get a bit tired of it?
Oh dear,Jim Murphy slapped down by his London master again:
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2015/apr/labours-scottish-campaign-demolished-balls
Yes Robert..
Where would country be..?
Without these “TOP MEN”
Regards TNS poll
As Stuart has pointed out over on twitter feed, you should get too excited as this poll was before Murphy provided his pearls of wisdom (I think it was wisdom that he was spouting…. 😉 )
Will be interesting to see a poll taken after
Just to add I think you should also view these as mere snapshots, the most important poll is the one in May
So double up on efforts to counter the media propaganda!
For a second there.. Thought lib. dems were minus 6..!
no no no..yes
Gadzooks..looks like those promised mansion taxed funded 1000 extra nurses and driving lessons for the weans will be deemed “non cuts eqivalents” in big Jim the Saviours bumper Calculator of Chaos
As support for the SNP climbs ever higher in the polls, it was only a year ago that the megastar Scottish politicians of the Labour party had chosen to secure their own personal political dynasties instead of doing what was right for Scotland.
Brown, Darling, Douglas Alexander, Mgt. Curran, Murphy and more, all of them certain that wearing the same pyjamas as the Tories and sleeping in the same bed would secure their careers and their unionist party. For all their experience of matters political and economical, they couldn’t work out that one plus one equals two in the history books.
And so it came to pass that these highly educated and, by reputation, very intelligent men, merely succeeded in sowing the seeds of their own destruction.
One wonders what Scottish politicians with a taste for the Westminster gravy train, will do after Independence. England won’t have them that’s for sure. They’ll be forced to live and work in their home country – the same one they tried to destroy.
I suspect they won’t be in to their local anything very often, or on the high street either for that matter. They’ll probably end up emigrating to England, their first love.
Dave McEwan Hill says:
13 April, 2015 at 10:23 am
Can we stop the infantile obsession some folk on here have of taking some minor free benefits away from the well off.
Absolutely agree,Dave – it’s the same as the Mail demonising the “benefit scroungers” when the big ticket event is bankers’ bonuses, offshore accounts and multinational’s tax avoidance/evasion.
I think what should be emphasised in this context is the economics of doing away with the universal benefit principle; counter-productive and a waste of time.
O/T I believe the Victoria Derbyshire show from Newcastle (now on) has Stewart Hosie involved in a studio debate about election issues. Total contrast to yesterday’s pathetic BBC blood sport event, as it is offering allowing space and ability to have a grown-up discussion. I’m off to check it out now.
Hey you Wings types ho !!
I’m Jim Murphy and I’d just like to say in response to my performance on the debates.
SHOUTY, SHOUTY, SHOUTY, McSHOUT, SNP BAD, SNP BAD, NICOLA, POINTY,POINTY, SHOUTY, SHOUTY, SHOUTY, SNP BAD, SNP BAD, FFA, FFA, NICOLA, NAE CUTS, SHOUTY, SHOUTY, HEY RUTH DOLL, SMILE, NICOLA, NICOLA, POOLING & SHARING, SHOUTY, McSHOUTY, FITBA’, SNP BAD, DRINK AT FIBA’, SHOUTY, SHOUTY, FOODBANKS, SHOUTY, SHOUTY.
There – answer that !!!
Must be the effect of those new fangled wide screen tellies.
Well Jim did say that the polls would swing late and swing big
😉
With reference to the latest poll results and people fearing complacency. I would ask all to think on the battle cry used at Bannockburn when the battle began to turn favour of the Scottish army.
” On them, on them, they fail”
Let there be no let up, FORWARD!
@Macart
Yep. Dim Jim is doing rather well, for the snp!
He’s a thoroughly nasty man…
http://www.weourselves.com/the-ugly-side-of-jim/
O/T but if there was another indyref held in 2016 who would lead the Better Together campaign given the potential wipeout of Scottish Labour?
Feeding these TNS predictions into Electoral Calculus gives
SNP 55 seats
Lab 4
Con 0
Lib 0
Oh well, there’s always the HoL left to prolong the dinosaurs’ agony.
Thought you might like to listen to Danus Skene, the snp candidate hoping to oust Alastair Carmichael
http://www.youtube.com/embed/Ed903RSc0dQ
Brilliant post;
Barontorc says:
13 April, 2015 at 10:07 am
What makes the LAB CON LIB opposition shouting down strategy so pathetic is that here we have a useful and working Scottish Government proposing policy to better the lives of all Scots – (people who live and work in this country) – yet these three other UK dominated parties will actually work to decrease living standards here in Scotland to shore up the UK.
Not one policy, stated as coming down the line by any of these parties, if we vote for them, could be enacted without the approval of Westminster – and only a fool would discount the stated reluctance of both Westminster and the HoL to give Scots any more concessions, indeed they intend to cut back on Scotland.
So, in effect, the circus that pretends to be democracy in action, including the inexcusable mis-use of the civil and intelligence services, is nothing less than the UKs attempts to dismantle the positive intentions of the Scottish Government. All of which, in another environment, would be seen as subversive against the ‘state’.
Reminds me of this…
youtu.be/-wntX-a3jSY
mind you we know what they did after that..
@ Nana
They are stuck in a bit of a rut aren’t they?
Whatever else these pack hunters are, they’re not stupid and surely by this point they must see the effects their own behaviour and electoral strategy is having on the voting public?
Fact is though, they’ve locked themselves into this strategy. If they backtrack on it or attempt to alter it then their whole narrative and reason for being falls apart. If they pursue it to its natural conclusion again they also risk extinction and once again risk their entire system falling apart. They’re caught between a Scot and a hard place with only one out as they see it, which is to ever more wildly flail as they drown in a cess pit of their own making.
There’s not even the pretence of subtlety or difference anymore between the establishment parties. The establishment/media catastrophe that was memogate was a first class example collusion from the top down to the gutter and ditto yesterday’s car crash telly.
Their problem? A more engaged and aware electorate saw it for what it was.
Ah, Jim! Ah, Jim! thou’ll get thy fairin!
Yon poll maun roast thee like a herrin!
Graham – I just want to make sure Jim,Alexander,Curren and Davidson. Are not the four left. I just want to see their faces on May the 8th!
I expect Murphy is going to be dropped by Milliband next week, if the polls keep going this way.
Jim’s only hope and Slabour. Is breaking away from London altogether and becoming a Scottish party. However they are too Westmisnter programmed to ever see this.
IF the SNP takes over 35 seats…
It will be a revolutionary shift of trust and allegiance.
If Scotland follows up with a shift in its deeper understanding of its own principals… It will trigger the human nature of social improvement.
Thus enabling an enlightenment.
People care… They protect and impress and enjoy.
But… To learn and share ALL WE KNOW AND OWN we need to see our nations’ culture as its most efficient language.
Money and wealth are what we create through our culture… Not the other way about.
.
Can Ed drop Murphy? He is the elected leader. He could stand down if pressed I guess. However, it would not be possible to conduct an election to find a replacement in time and to leave Kezia in charge might be asking a tad much of her. I think they have chosen their road and must now walk it.
Just listened to Ed Milibland Manifesto Speech. The guy is an arse. He is so plastic.
I feel embarrassed for the people sitting in that room and applauding him like a bunch of seals waiting to be fed their daily fish rations. oink oink!
@Macart
Loving this phrase!
“They’re caught between a Scot and a hard place”
Best wishes to the BBC’s Nick Robinson, on his way back after having a carcinoid tumour removed.
I’m not sure how the surgeon knew which bit to throw away.
That’s a tad harsh Donald but we understand.
Donald Urquhart,
Unacceptable.
BBC r4 news team have this morn stopped monstering Sturgeon, Salmond and everything SNP, with their hourly news now saying that SNP plan good stuff for Scottish business and pressuring our imperial masters for HS2 for Scotland and the North. Must be the spring sun.
Change of BBC attack SNP strategy?, one of them found a copy of their charter?
Next up, Libby Carrell writes something even remotely readably honest and balanced for rancid Graun, comical Cockers has a dry Monday, torygraph begs Scottish tories vote Murphy, after his egging by vile separatist hell tomorrow, for that good old teamGB media balance?
Whatever teamGB media are up to at BBC r4, flip flop SNP attack, nice beeb once in decade , bad beed normal service, is just as ghastly as their full on vote creepy Morphy/SNP monstering.
eg. Real world teamGBnomics
There is not a hope in hell of any English high speed rail coming within 300 hundred miles of Carlisle.
Handand shrimp correction, I meant dropped in the preverbial sense. Sent to Coventry and distanced from the main campaign. Can’t see Milliband wanting to be associated with an abject failure. Look what he did with his brother!
” to find a replacement in time and to leave Kezia in charge might be asking a tad much of her.”
Handandshrimp, that is one helluva understatement.
Er… Donald…
Below the belt….
Big Jock at 11:27
Afraid Davidson still survives on this prediction but the others are gone. The other three are Bain, Clarke and Brown’s successor.
day off today….watching the miliband manifesto. He has ruled out the zero cuts prospect which scary jim proposed for scotland. Is scary jim making it up as he goes along? He isn’t doing very well for Slab, is he?….perhaps a reshuffle is on the cards soon?
Uncomfortable viewing where Miliband dodged the ‘SNP are hammering you’ questions from journalists.
Away to do more weeding while the sun shines.
Ah, Jim! Ah, Jim! thou’ll get thy fairin!
Yon poll maun roast thee like a herrin!
like it, Robert
@Nana Smith says: 13 April, 2015 at 10:59 am:
http://www.weourselves.com/the-ugly-side-of-jim
Ouch! Nana Smith, You mean the side we can all see wasn’t the ugly one?
Just look at the body language in the middle picture on that site. The snapping, snarling aggressive pack all leaning towards wee Nicola who is feeling the pack-attack and leaning away from the concerted attack.
A picture can indeed save 1,000 words.
I do not think Ed can drop Murphy, either. Apart from the fact that he was elected, what would be the point? Labour are not spoilt for choice when you consider who might replace him.
To me, the question is irrelevant anyway. Leaders matter, but not nearly so much as they think they do. What is important is the policies, and the trust (or in this case distrust) the electorate place in the party to deliver those policies after the election is over.
I think the launch of the labour party manifesto went well today: they correctly pointed out that the tories are intent on cutting because that is what they like to do, and wish to do in order to shrink the state. They correctly pointed out that they too will cut, but less so and that there is a difference between public spending for investment and public spending for current consumption. The lib dems are making the same point. And so are the SNP.
Whether you agree that the cuts are sensible or not (and I don’t) it seems clear to me that the plutocratic consensus of the last few years is coming apart at the seams: all over the UK people are beginning to realise that tory claims of economic competence are nonsense, and so Labour and the Lib dems have apparently decided it is time to change tack
The question is will they revert if elected, and for me the answer is an unequivocal yes. They do not have the intellectual and economic arguments which would enable them to resist the pressure which will inevitably come from the elite if they start doing anything substantively different. The do not have the principles or the commitment to social justice which is required, either.
I think this will work in England, for the people have few options. I wonder if the people who have recently decided to support the SNP from those parties will be solid, when they see an apparent change of direction from those they used to vote for. For I believe that many made the switch in voting intention for reasons of mainstream politics and economics, and not because they want independence: I believe many are still opposed to independence, and want a left wing alternative within the UK.
It is difficult to believe that they could be persuaded that is on offer from parties which have pursued tory policy for decades now. But hope and loyalty die hard, and many do believe there is a significant difference between all these tory parties, though that difference has been buried for a while. However for scottish voters the situation is different because of the alternative offered by the SNP: they have been consistent in their offer, unlike Labour and the Lib Dems. Scots do not have to take the leap of faith demanded of the electorate in England, for that reason
I will not be surprised to see a fall in the polls for the SNP in the run up to the election, because I do think that some will still allow hope to triumph over experience. And that is dangerous because softening polls will sow doubt that the SNP is in fact now mainstream. To that extent I think it is a bit of a shame that the SNP are riding so high, so early. Any slippage will be portrayed as failure: if labour look like holding half their seats it will be shouted from the roof tops as victory. Sadly scots are very used to disappointment in the final outcome; we almost expect it. That mindset may well be the root of my analysis here, and my fears may be groundless.
But I do think it is important to remember the size of the mountain labour have to climb in Scotland. I do not think they can do it before the election date. I think the SNP will have a very significant increase in the number of their MP’s, no matter what.
Then they will have the opportunity to consolidate and grow the support, just as they did with a good performance at Holyrood.
Really hope the Polls translate the same on election day.
Me and pals out canvassing tonight, got to keep the momentum going.
Would love to see Murphy / Alexander lose their seats
O/T Alex Salmonds piece in the National today is good ammunition for anybody up against the 7bn FFA ‘black hole’ argument.
Basically one of the underlying principles of devolution (present and future) agreed by all parties in the Smith Commission is that neither Scotland nor Westminster shall be initially detrimented (or whatever the word is) by the devolution of a new power.
So if FFA was introduced in stages there would be no ‘black hole’.
I remember reading this in the Smith Commission report but never made the connection when Labour were widdling on about the alleged 7bn last week.
Should blow that line of attack out of the water, not sure if SNP countered with this, if they did I didn’t hear.
Fiona
Certainly polls that have us at 49% and 52% are incredibly high and I would be surprised if we retain that sort of lead. However, if we can convince those that backed Yes that a strong SNP voice will both add to calls of a stronger left wing slant on UK policy and give a strong voice for further devolution then I think we can still poll well.
I think most of us are sceptical about a total wipe out though. Every single seat over around 30 will bring a big cheer. We need to keep our feet on the ground.
Big Jock@12.00
It is worthwhile remembering that Milliband had already demoted Mr Murphy from his front bench team so did not rate him too highly to begin with.
I suspect Mr Murphy over-egged his role in the referendum campaign so Mr Milligan’s said OK to his leadership of the Labour party in Scotland seeing it as a good way to get rid of JM altogether.
Unfortunately he has realised too late that it is likely to end up with the loss of Scotland too.
@HandandShrimp says: 13 April, 2015 at 11:37 am:
“Can Ed drop Murphy? He is the elected leader.
How right you are, Handandshrimp. Not to mention that by dropping Murphy they draw attention to his and their weakness’. It also exposes the lie of, “Scottish Labour”.
What I can see coming is the importing of such as Big-Gun-Brown and even Big-Battling-Barron-Prescott to officially, “browbeat those nasty Cybernats into submission”, but in reality to scare the very shit out of the poor, disabled, old and vulnerable.
Bringing in reinforcements is strength but dismissing the leader is weakness – or so they hope to be understood.
Neil shouting at Chukka Ammuna? about Murphy promising Scotland no cuts, and was he lying?
Chukka quite uncomfortable!
Just think,
If they’d left Wee Johann in charge they probably wouldn’t have done so badly
That’s saying something about The Labour Party innit
Legerwood @12.25, totally agree. I actually think Milliband saw that support for SLab was fractured during the referendum, and it was somehow sold to him that Murphy was the beast to sort it out.
I don’t believe there was a fair vote for the leadership, and it was gerrymandered.
Looking from outside, as you know, we came to a consensus on here, that Murphy was going to be a gift for the likes of us, and the SNP.
Good to see a plan coming together!!!!
@Robert Peffers
I believe he has a temper problem. I remember when he turned on Pete Wishart for no apparent reason and the people commenting at the time that Murphy lacked control.
Wonder how he’s feeling right now as Umunna has slapped him down by stating
“The leader of the Scottish Labour Party will not be in charge of the UK budget”
Yikes, anybody seen the Faslane protest? Police are using angle grinders on protesters who are on the ground and bonded by tubes!
I would like to know how the hell Murphy is 4/9 favourite to retain his seat after all that’s happened. Unbelievable.
Ian. Yahoo that’s a cracker of a poll. Smile back on and….
Gordoz. Spat my tea all over the screen again.. 😉 brilliant.
I am really enjoying these polls. Labour try hard to ignore them and most folks know they can change, but not that much over the next three weeks.
We’re going to wipe the lot off the map. Too many folk with the scales off. Sept 19th Dave comes on and talks EVEL. Pissed off so many. Since then we have watched the momentum build and are cruising .
Enjoy this folks. More often or not we’re in the chasing pack . Not so these dayz. 🙂 And whats wrong with that. we put up with abuse 365 a year. Now it’s our turn.
Tick tock
@ HandandShrimp
I do not think we disagree, though I would take issue with this
However, if we can convince those that backed Yes that a strong SNP voice will both add to calls of a stronger left wing slant on UK policy and give a strong voice for further devolution then I think we can still poll well.
I think that is unnecessarily limiting. We do not need to rely on convincing those who voted yes, of those things. There are a great many who voted No who support them too.
You will be aware, as I am, of the strong thread of “internationalism” which runs through the labour support, and which means they find “nationalism” distasteful and leads them to reject independence. I think they are wrong for reasons which I am sure you share and which need not be rehearsed here. But the fact is it is there, and such people will not vote “yes” anytime soon. But those same people want a left wing slant, without question.
A wee anecdote. I have a friend who was in the past a very active worker for labour. He became disillusioned with the labour party far later than I did, and he had nowhere to go because he is utterly opposed to nationalism, for reasons I find hard to understand. It was a difficult issue between us during the referendum and we could only manage it by staying off the subject. So we did.
Two days ago he raised the subject of the election and he tells me he is seriously considering voting SNP. He remains completely opposed to independence, but he is still left wing and he can see that the SNP’s policies are more in line with his aspirations than those of any other party. So far as I can gather he is broadly indifferent to further devolution, but he is not actively opposed to it: it is the prospect of a left wing voice at Westminster which matters to him, however. I am certain he is not alone
To me this means that the SNP need not rely on Yes voters alone: though I am aware of Curtice’s suggestion that that is all that is reflected in the polls at present. I do not think the support for the SNP is merely a matter of getting the yes vote out. It is deeper and wider than that
@Glamaig.
My arguement which has some success,is to remember people that our current share of the black hole dug by Westminster is already 10 billion per year,Which would you rather have ?
@ Bob Mack
Bear in mind that the argument they are making is that the £7.6 billion black hole is in addition to the current share. Be careful with that argument
Ed Miliband and the UK Labour election manifesto has a very small section about Scotland:
Scotland
In September 2014, people across Scotland voted overwhelmingly for change.
Labour will keep its vow and implement the Smith Agreement in full. And we
will go further, with a Home Rule Bill to give extra powers to Scotland over tax,
welfare and jobs. Rates of income tax will be set in Scotland. Billions of pounds
of social security spending will be devolved, including benefits that support
disabled people. The Work Programme will also be devolved along with a
greater ability to invest in capital projects.
The new devolution settlement will recognise the strength and security offered
by being part of the United Kingdom. We will maintain the Barnett formula, and
Scotland will continue to benefit from pooling and sharing resources across
the UK
Can anyone explain what this “Ed speak” actually means?
Labour manifesto looks like it might engender some heated debate and as ever it will get picked to the bones by the Tory press.
However, to be fair, some good stuff on the constitution, childcare etc, and I can the see SNP being happy to back a lot of this or hold them to it if they start to get shy of change once in.
Aye, but remember the further up (north) you go the smaller the scale of things (BBC Current Affairs Handbook, Chapter 3, Subsection 6).
Just caught the 1 o clock news on BBC and it will probably be on all effin day .
Watch Milliblunder 1st up in a Labour kinda office , then a wood working store , then to another place where the guys are wearing Red Flashes on overalls shoulders .
Watch the first guy shake DM hand …. Then watch his expression ….
We must just blink at the polls, with a smile on our face but. We cannot afford to believe them as the Unionists will already have their plans to cheat us. To make the polls artificially high would be one of them, complacency is their idea on this one.
I do believe the hysteria from them is due to the real result of Indy, when factoring their cheating. If they had not cheated, they would have been beaten, all against their first predictions.
I think now, due to their rabit attitudes against Scotland, even more cheating will be in place and on an industrial scale.
So can we defeat all this, yes. However we need big volumes of votes, a very big turnout followed by a huge SNP vote will overcome their attempts to thwart Scottish democracy.
That is what we must work for and do not take our eye off the ball. Forget the polls concentrate on the result.
@Glamaig says: 13 April, 2015 at 12:18 pm:
O/T Alex Salmonds piece in the National today is good ammunition for anybody up against the 7bn FFA ‘black hole’ argument.
This Establishment, “Black Hole”, theory is claptrap, Glamaig.
“Basically one of the underlying principles of devolution (present and future) agreed by all parties in the Smith Commission is that neither Scotland nor Westminster shall be initially detrimented (or whatever the word is) by the devolution of a new power.
That last bit, Glamaig, says it all. There is no way now they can stop showing that three of the four countries have been, “Detremented”, since day one of Devolution.
As I’ve been posting over the past wee while, Glamaig, these terms are political jargon and need to be translated into plain English. What the facts are is something else, (and we are back to the Barnett Formula again).
The basic con trick being how the Establishment used devolution to their own ends. There is no doubt that, “The United Kingdom”, is legally exactly what its title says it is – a bipartite Kingdom. (It has never been a country).
Thus the only legal split is to change both former Kingdoms on an equal basis but the Establishment got far too clever. They not only split the Union of two Kingdoms along four country lines, but they retained the United Kingdom Parliament and title for the Country of England.
This gave them a whole mess of problems they didn’t see coming and the biggest one was funding. They are running England, (the country), as if it were the UK. They are funding England as the UK but devolving both power and funding to the other three countries but retaining the tax gathering for the de facto Parliament of England.
So we have the English Parliament pretending to be the United Kingdom devolving UK power to others but attempting NOT to tell the people how the system of allocating funds actually works. So what is going to happen when the public, both in England and the devolved countries, find they were conned?
First up all those claims that England is hard done by and Scotland getting more than her share of the funds will go right out the window if anything like Full Fiscal Autonomy is being spoken about. Come on, Glamaig, think about it!
How do they hang onto the lion’s share of funds if other countries have tax gathering powers? Things become clear for all to see and the Scots, Welsh and N.Irish will see the truth with predictable results.
That’s why every Establishment party are attempting to NOT have FFA and why they do NOT want to explain Barnett’s Formula either.
It’s the proverbial rock & Hard Place and they cannot avoid having to suffer one of them. Anyone understanding Barnett knows they have been ripped off or they are ripping others off. Like the Scots – this isn’t going back into the box.
I heard Milliband had booked two train carriages from Euston to Glasgow on May 6th…..just a rumour mind you!LOL
Joemcg says:
“I would like to know how the hell Murphy is 4/9 favourite to retain his seat after all that’s happened. Unbelievable.”
-the people in care homes, sheltered housing and churches will stand no chance when this bully forces them to sign a postal ballot.
No no no…Yes says:
13 April, 2015 at 12:56 pm
Ed Miliband and the UK Labour election manifesto has a very small section about Scotland:
Lallands Peat Worrier puts this nonsense in proper perspective and shows it up for what it is.
@joemcg 12:45 pm
Think it may say more about the voters of E Renfrewshire than Dim Jim.
@Donald urquhart
have you ever seen someone die of cancer? if you have you would realise what an apalling statement you’ve made.
Donald Urquhart.11.49
Fuck off ya union troll- shit stirring prick
@YESGUY
Agree bud – Scots are fickle and these are only polls. We’ll just have to see after the vote. Personally anywhere near 30 seats would be a real victory in my eyes. Remember where we are starting from.
But it is great to just imagine all the ‘Labour North wurthies’ (MP’s MSP’s and misguided ‘sheep’ activists), looking blankly at these polls and just not getting it; blaming the SNP and YES voters for what has gone wrong with Labour. But also realizing that their country ‘Britain’ is now abroad and south of a border.
Lets revel a wee bit while we can, but keep pushing and knocking doors. Increasingly SNP canvassers are finding they are pushing against an open door & being welcomed in to former Labour households 🙂
If the latest 52% poll for the SNP is to be believed then that Bar graph you show Stuart will be all yellow and I will be celebrating at a different kind of bar!!
Thomas 11:49- keep it clean. It should be Foulkes off you defacation ,stirring unionist male member! Just saying …lol.
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/u/only-in-glasgowdo-vandals-hit-out-at-the-price-of-a-cadburys-freddo.1428920700
Jim Murphy has said:” It shows, you just can’t trust the SNP . They have been in power at Holyrood for 8 years. Freddos were 17p in 2007 under the Labour government.
That’s a yearly increase of 1p per annum. How can pensions be safe when they allow this to happen to the sick and vulnerable”.
Jim said he plans to reduce the cost of Freddos by taxing wealthy Londoners:” This is about pooling and sharing resources in the UK. An independent Scotland would have a chocolate black hole”.
Just watched the Danus Skene vid (Nana Smith 11.08)
A thoughtful and intelligent man making reasonable and valid points.
How ANYONE up there could still consider voting for the Fat Fool is beyond me.
Heedtracker said.- “So we need a Save Creepy Jim Murphy campaign.”
Keep the Creep! 🙂
Is it just me, or does it feel like Christmas night is coming. I’m going to stay up all 8TH AM. Something’s in the air……CHOICE.
Stop being paranoid. The numbers of seats are clearly displayed at the top of the columns.
“Stop being paranoid. The numbers of seats are clearly displayed at the top of the columns.”
And?
And… You can clearly see the raw data for yourself. The numbers were actually the first thing you can see. They are not manipulated in any way. If you can’t see that, you really are just looking for any reason to stir shit that isn’t there.