You’re gonna need someone on your side
Posted on
February 03, 2015 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
From the latest YouGov polling. Ooft.
Remarkably, 26% of people planning to vote Labour in May, and an astounding 54% of likely Tory voters, say the SNP are the best guarantors of more powers, while 21% of Labour voters and 37% of Tories also answer “SNP” to the second question.
We wouldn’t want to be in Scottish Labour’s shoes if they were made of diamonds.
Tic Toc..
To steal a line…
PURRRR
Wouldn’t read too much into this. Fieldwork undertaken before the political Krakatoa of Gordon Brown emerging from the jungle, like a Japanese soldier that doesn’t know the war is over, with “Vow2”, so Labour is sure to bounce back shortly. Waiting. Any. Minute. Now. Waiting…
Scorchioooo….
They obviously admire the professionalism, consistency of message, ethical stance and moral courage but they still hate the SNP.
Will they vote for them though?
Good news until we factor in that they’ll cheat at the counts.
Dunno what all the fuss is all about.. Big Gordy has spoken.. These figure are just a blimp..
It’s in the bag. Between him and the BBC Scotland Propaganda Machine there’s nothing to see here..
Labour will win and normal service will resume shortly (except for viewers in Scotland)..
Did they ask how many had a postal vote?
93,000+ members, explains why.
Auld Rock
It’s my birthday today.
What a lovely present.
R-type Grunt
You’re a real ray of sunshine. Just when I’d managed to talk myself into not thinking that all the time, you have to go and spoil my day.
So much for the “Murphy bounce”, more like a thud or clang. I can’t see Snake oil Brown, doing much better.
I imagine the Vow+ is going to have a further negative effect on Labour voting intentions. It makes them look incredibly untrustworthy, increasingly desperate and also suggests that they have failed to deliver the first time around.
To be fair, yougov people polled here had probably not see Eggs and Crash flogging their THE VOW plus fraud. Exciting times for everyone in Pacific Quay though. BBC says Gordon Brown punting THE VOW plus was like watching “caged tiger pacing the stage!” They said that last time too though. BBC Scotland presents ProjectFear plus, vote Slab or else Scotland. link to bbc.co.uk grrrrr
BBC’s love in with Gordon Brown continues unabated next week when Mrs Brown (not the Irish one) accepts an invite to take part in the Comic Relief Great British Bake Off and will be cooing that Gordon has a sweet tooth.
Source Edinburgh “Evening” News which is sinking fast and will now be coming out at 6.30 am in the morning which means Labour press releases (sorry political stories) will not have any alternative viewpoint expressed
Sounds like that’s 26% of Lab and a whopping 54% of Tory voters who could potentially be ‘turned’!
Buuuut,who are they going to vote for in May?..
Murphy’s meteoric rise as aspiring First Minister really does the ‘Dying Swan’ routine….oops!.
It’s all getting a wee bitty racy for early February.
It seems the over 60s are keeping Labour alive. Encouraging figures on independence also, a healthy lead from 18-59 year olds
Has the penny dropped at last?
If so, not before time.
OT If you want cheering up, Mr Duguid’s latest sketch is a must read.
link to williamduguid.blogspot.co.uk
So a quarter of Labour voters and about half of Tory voters don’t want Scotland (their own community!) to have any increased power or influence? I don’t know what to think of that. Jesus f#%&# Christ. Do they feel trapped in some heathen British colony? Or is it just a beggar mentality? Bend the knee to our imperial masters? Please fill our bowls, massahs?
Whatever happened to people taking f&%£% responsibility for themselves?
So this means that 1 in 4 labour voters and 1 in 2 Tory voters are British Nationalists. Unreachable. The union jack is more important to them than anything else.
dont worry the master bull shitter will bealong any second and tell us that the poll was wrong and labour are 99 percent ahead oh and plus the thousand extra he promises
jim is good at recycling you know keeps coming back with more but different bullshitery
ps jimbo and gordo should come with a health warning
WARNING THIS PAIR OF PRICKS COULD HARM YOU SO USE JONNIES
IDEA FOR CHEMISTS GET A PHOTO OF JIMBO AND UNDER NEATH
GUYS LOOK AT JIM AND BUY A CONDOM OR YOUR DICK WILL LOOK LIKE THIS
Youre Gonna Need a Bigger Boat!
I think they’re trying to make us complacent.
There now, everything’s fine, go back to sleep and let the big people vote to save the labour party.
Watch out, Gordzilla’s about.
Linda McFarlane says:
3 February, 2015 at 4:13 pm
It’s my birthday today.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY LINDA BIG WINGS HUG
A reminder for all pro Union voters watch Inside The Commons at 9 pm this evening on BBC2 England or BBC2HD but not for Jock viewers in Scotland whom the BBC assume / hope will be too drunk to notice the anachronism by 11.50 pm when it is shown in Scotland.
Now, now, we shouldn’t tarnish that great Labour tradition of sprinkling magic dust over ballot boxes.
Never underestimate the power of vote tampering especially when you’ve already succumbed to it in the past.
Its already started. The voting regulations have been changed and no notice given of the change. Now everybody within a household has to register individually to vote it is no longer valid for a single household member to register all valid voters within the household. so many of us who registered to vote in the referendum will find they are no longer entitled to vote unless they re-register and real soon.
Not to mention the denial of allowing 16-18 years olds the vote this year.
Stop getting hung up about polls and start waking up to the campaigning already underway.
Interesting responses in that poll. On the VOW and likelihood of the Unionist parties delivering:
How likely or unlikely do you think it is that they will deliver on these promises?
TOTAL LIKELY 41
TOTAL UNLIKELY 54
Note, someone over on WD pointed out Vow plus came out on Groundhog Day.
What are the numbers with DKs discounted?
This is so delicious I don’t think I’ll have enough space for supper tonight.
Alas! Vow Plus may lead to much confusion among the Red Tory and BBC ranks. They just won’t be able understand why it’s not working. It’s beyond unionist comprehension.
“After all, the first Vow worked a treat last September, did it not? Did it not?
Did it not?”
Some other brilliant results from that poll for Westminster Election –
SNP 48% (up 1%). Labour 27% (no change)
No chance or unlikely to change their mind before the election – 74%
Referendum NO voters likely to change their mind before the election – 17%
Referendum YES voters likely to change their mind before the election – 7%
The swingometer is only going one way.
Chic McGregor I have just found William Duguid’s page and am in the middle of reading it, boy this gentleman can give as good a doing as Wee Ginger Dug.
O/t for John King’s eyes only, Newfoundland is still alive and kicking, met him this evening on the field by the house. Brother Teddy was rehomed as he was bullying Bear, I know Teddy /Bear.
Jim Murphy goes on his political honeymoon convinced that his sweet talk will delight the object of his desire, only to find that he’s been ordered to sleep on the sofa and divorce proceedings are already in train.
Could this mean that BBC Local Propaganda influence is waning?
We can never be complacent but at the same time these figures are encouraging I think. More over they are a great place to be 3 month’s out from the General Election. Not only that but they give all of us an excellent grounding on which to build from!
Complacency is NOT permitted. We can NEVER allow a “Labour 2011” result to be produced for us in May. These figures are great but we MUST build on them and INCREASE them. We can NEVER let these figures slide.
Regarding the UK media and these polls.
It seems that all the SNP has to do is sit back (which I’m sure they won’t) and let the rampant tory press from down south do its job in attacking Miliband and the labour party.
The latest polling, depending which one you look at, is showing the Tories slightly moving ahead in the polls and that will increase, in my opinion, as the press go at Miliband.
This attacking of Miliband can only bode well for the SNP as more and more Labour voters will see labour as a hopeless cause come the GE and switch their vote to the SNP for Scotland’s protection.
What was the song Blair used to get elected? ‘Things can only get better’ well it seems to me that things can only get worse for the labour party.
So in essence these polls, like the one above, will only get worse for the red tories closer to the election.
Yippee!
The thing with being English is that a lot of my friends and family down South don’t get why I am so pro-independence and against mealy mouthed politicians who make half-assed Vows.
Today, on social media a friend posted this BBC News page link – and gave it the caption “Ah, sense at last”
link to archive.today
My mate is typical of the comfortably off Tory voter – they see Scotland and the SNP as an imposition, interfering with England’s right to self-determinism.
I had a debate with this friend and he replied, “…for most people having a region of the UK that can vote on policies that affect other regions as well as their own with no reciprocity is not a position we wish to be placed in. ”
Note the ‘we’ – I replied that England votes successfully on 99% of its laws while Scotland gets a paltry 25%. I drew attention to the fact that the recent Fracking moratorium vote was basically EVSL – the English playing party politics with Scots.
I stated that as Scotland is still part of the UK and was comprehensively wooed to stay Better Together then it is the democratic right of SNP MPs to represent the wishes of their electorate.
No reply back.
Brown cannot be trusted and this should be exposed as much as possible – as even Polly Hockeysticks was well aware – 6 years ago !
J:\My_Docs\Personal\Personal-articles\Gordon Brown by Polly Toynbee 11-05-09.mht
link to theguardian.com
I have already told many on other sites,they are suffering “Stockholm Syndrome”.and I actually believe this to be true,.There is no rational explanation to cling on to the status quo.This poll confirms it for me.
NO campaign spending
Groups backing No
Better With Scotland: £47,042
Communication Workers Union (CWU): £20,437
Cumbria Broadband Rural and Community Projects Limited: £65,921
GMB: £43,835
Grand Orange Lodge of Scotland: £47,072
Let’s Stay Together: £133,832
Liberal Democrats: £187,585
Mr Angus MacDonald: £110,644
No Borders Campaign: £147,510
The Scottish Research Society: £82,202
Union of Shop, Distributive & Allied Workers (USDAW): £30,550
WFS2014 (Working for Scotland): £118,303
Total ‘No’: £1,034,933
It’s Vow or never,
please hold my seat
Listen to Brown and Darling,
be mine in May
Tomorrow will be too late,
it’s Vow or never
My expenses won’t wait.
When I first fooled you
with your trust so tender
Your heart was captured,
Common sense surrendered
Now spend a lifetime
waiting for the right time
It’s never near
the chance will soon be past.
Just like a willow,
I would cry an ocean
If I lost troughing
and your sweet devotion
Your votes excite me,
let your votes support me
For who knows when
I’ll trough again this way
It’s Vow or never,
please hold my seat
Listen to Brown and Darling,
be mine in May
Tomorrow will be too late,
it’s Vow or never
My expenses won’t wait.
It’s Vow or never,……
MY EXPENSES WON’T WAIT Dah dah dah!
@Helena
Aye there is some similarity. Roughly the same amount of Tabasco on the barbs.
Bravo! Luigi.
Sorry for O/T.
Will she or won’t she?
Least one Labour MP has some resemblance of a conscience.
link to ardrossanherald.com
Good Work, Stu. Forget LabourList – You are No1.
Given the nature of these questions,
the position of the SNP in voters minds is rock solid
and with the SNP Leadership as is,
that is not going to change anytime soon.
But, with the Unionist Fear and Smear campaign once more in full swing,
the journey through to May 7th will still be for many,
a time of moderate trepidation.
Interesting to note that Gordon Brown is much earlier on stage compared to Indy,
but then Darling was doing a much better job
for BT in IndyRef than J Murphy is doing now.
The targetting will be the same of course;
sad to say the SNP remain strangely quiet about the 1 million elderly voters
who cost Scotland dear last September,
and who still need much reassurance
to help them deal with the BBC onslaught,
together with their own propensities for anxiety.
The SNP MUST show that they are the Party for Pensioners
with increases in the Pension
together with a serious increase in the Winter Fuel Allowance.
Not devolved? Then make the increases a stand alone supplement.
Another point of interest is the early bribe in VOW+.
This may mean that another is in the pipeline,
but will only be delivered either nearer the time,
meaning the start of postal voting,
or if the Polls remain as they are just now, then at the death.
Figuring the Unionist strategy in Scotland remains tricky,
but with Union still atop the leaderboard of priorities
for Westminster and the Unionist Establishment,
there can be no question that the opposition will be
doing their damndest to secure their vote.
With the Electoral Commission now discredited,
and the shadow of suspicion still hanging over IndyRef,
the Independence Alliance surely must up their game
and police the ballot far more effectively.
It would be criminally naive to think
that the Unionists will not be tempted to ‘influence’ the vote.
Postal voting remains the major worry;
elderly care home ‘canvassing’
and voter registration are other areas of particular concern.
Ballot box delivery remains a vulnerability.
And finally, I wonder how many spare ballot papers
will be printed this time around.
O/T (a bit) – but I see from the Telegraph website the BBC have lost the rights to broadcast the Open Championship from 2017 to Sky. Glad to see they’re spending our money wisely.
Nation Libre
It seems the over 60s are keeping Labour alive. Encouraging figures on independence also, a healthy lead from 18-59 year olds
Grrr! Some of us on here are in that slightly more mature age group. I have no intention of waiting till I`m dead to be free.
Sinky says:
“NO campaign spending”
Who are some of these groups? I’ve never heard of them! And what were they up to during the campaign!?
Sorry for O/T here.
Just read on Twitter that the Scottish Government has donated £5,000 to Maryhill Foodbank.
Well done Frankie Boyle
Well done Scottish Government
Over to you branch manager … oops I forgot you’ve just been demoted haven’t you never mind sonny here’s a wee cup of tea drink that and follow your Grand wizzard around and I’m sure things will work out all right for you! 😀
of course you know its all part of the master Plan!
Cant be long before we get Gordy asking Alan Cumming for tips on playing the M.C in the new “Will Jimmy Murphy stand again?” Musical …….”LABARET!”
Taxi for Murphy et al.
Ya beauty.
[…] You’re gonna need someone on your side […]
O/t Ivan McKee will be on Russian TV at 7pm.
So, why are the Labour and Tory voters still intent on voting for these parties?
This is a serious problem for Scotland, ie people who will not vote the way their head knows is right. They are the no voters who complain about the way Scotland is treated by WM, about the lack of control we have over our affairs, etc. Why can’t they see that they are just as guilty as their parties for the damage done to the people of this country if they continue to vote by habit rather than commonsense?
@ X Sticks, 4:26pm
I think you may be correct.
The much hyped poll of some Scottish constituencies by the billionaire Alan Ashcroft aka Lord Ashcroft is being released tomorrow at 11 am. He tweets, ‘A humdinger Scottish Individual seats poll will be released at 11am tomorrow. #itsawow
Well shall see if it lives up to all the hype. All this hype is working to the advantage of the SNP unlike 2010 when we were mostly ignored by the media.
Fundraiser is up and running for Maryhill foodbank peeps. Stu just tweeted link.
link to youcaring.com
Frankie Boyle just donated £5000 to Maryhill foodbank. Fab
karmanaut says:
3 February, 2015 at 4:24 pm
So a quarter of Labour voters and about half of Tory voters don’t want Scotland (their own community!) to have any increased power or influence?
Exactly! If you go on any of the NO F/B sites, that’s EXACTLY what they want (or don’t want). Absolutely stunning. Staunch BritNats who hate the SNP and want to stop them getting to WM because they don’t want any powers and many don’t even want Holyrood!
O/T Evel.
This is what’s coming. All MPs should be equal, but some MPs should be more equal than others.
link to conservativehome.com
“…this is consistent with what the English public are looking for. They are seeking a measure that will make it impossible for MPs from outside England to impose decisions where a majority of English MPs do not wish to see those decisions imposed.”
Should focus some minds. 🙂
Even if the intent by the Tory and Labour voters is to vote for their party regardless, their belief that the SNP will prove the more effective representation speaks volumes to those undecided.
You heard it here first peeps. If you want effective representation in Westminster, you know where to place that vote.
The latest distortion (completely ineffective) by the MSM is that those who voted for Independence- 45%, are all united behind the SNP whilst the Unionist vote is split.
The reality of course is that the SNP are proposing Fiscal Autonomy which all polls even during the referendum, demonstrated a majority.
Therefore it’s possible that the SNP vote may be presently undermined!
“No” campaign spending
They forgot to add the entire budget of the BBC, HM Treasury and MI5.
Seems there is a co-ordinated all out attack on the SNP this week. It has been consistant bad news stories from our media, especially BBC Scotland, add into that the Brown intervention, you could be forgiven for thinking that their was a Referendum vote next week.
Did Better Together, Project Fear not call this kind of attack a “Dambuster” attack?
Labour Broadcasting Service featuring ambulance chaser Jim Murphy outside Monklands A & E complaining about waiting times.
What hypocrisy but an absentee Westminster back bench MP who has no locus over health in Scotland and if Labour had their way Monklands A & E would have been closed thus making nearby waiting times longer.
And noted report that Murphy claimed to be campaigning to save Aberdeen oil industry at yesterday’s summit.
A local SNP councillor who was there pointed out that Murphy only stayed for 30 minutes and make no contribution or spoke at the proceedings.
Just another PR stunt for the supine Scottish media corps.
Jake @4.35pm
a bit O/T
we had our letters through in Oct saying still on register, no need to do anythjng further. I will however be vigilant for the 2016, Scottish election. Some I know have randomly been told they have to reregister, this should have been organised er, 4 years ago, not a few months before a general election, funny that.
‘Met’ Jim Murphy and four acolytes canvassing in Gorbals yesterday. As they wandered past, I loudly observed to my two-year old daughter, – “look Molly, there’s the people who stole your future.” The silence was defeaning.
@alexicon 5.13 would you have her? link to ardrossanherald.com
O/T at 5.20 Jim McIntosh says: BBC loses rights to broadcast Open Championship.
Well they just committed another £204 million to show English football league highlights until 2019.
Also hold FA cup rights working out at £1 million per game.
Contrast that with their failure to bid for Scottish Football league games thus giving Sky free run to suppress the amount paid.
link to centralfm.co.uk
link to snp.org
@ Bob Mack
Stockholm Syndrome ; An emotional bonding between victim and abuser.
Cognitive Dissonance ; Where logic/truth opposes a long held belief/conviction so the brain to protect the ego blanks out the logic/truth.
Oslo Syndrome ; Where a large portion of the citizens of a country suffer from what we in Scotland call the `Scottish cringe`(just ask most Scots what they think of Braveheart) we`re `too wee too stupid too poor`.
The SNP need to hire a psychiatrist/psychologist to find out how to help these delusional people to see the truth.
Those animals have burned that Jordanian pilot alive!
I notice some unionist twonks are getting excited because a sizeable number in the poll neither agreed nor disagreed with the proposition that falling oil prices affected Scotland. I didn’t take part, but I suspect many were simply annoyed that the question implied that only Scotland was affected (with it not mattering to the UK at all, of course). If you ask the wrong question, expect a funny answer.
Another thing is that I notice Hovercraft is trying to pretend there was no difference between the short campaign before the referendum and the long campaign before it in his ridiculous attempts to claim foul play over campaign spending. Low tactics in an attempt to smear and sow doubt without being brave enough to come forward with his false tale. Par for the course, I suppose.
O/T
link to commondreams.org
I’ve just had a wee play around with this pYougov poll results on the Electoral Calculus site. 😉
link to electoralcalculus.co.uk
First the BAD news … Labour arenot totally blown out, they survive with ELEVEN M.P.’s. Yes folks that’s right ELEVEN troughers returning to Westminster, the rest of the 59 seats … all 48 of them roll up in Westminster belonging to ONE party … anyone want to have a guess which one? 😀
The 11 Labour survivors are:
Willie Bain
Tom Clarke
Margaret Curran
Ian Davidson
Gordon Brown
Lindsay Roy
Gemma Doyle
Frank Roy
Tom Greatrex
Doulgas Alexander and someone called Jim Murphy … whoever he is.
Of course this prediction has Gordon Brown holding on to his seat but as we all know he is standing down so there may very well be a possibility if the calculus site re-ran the figures without the “Brown” factor his old seat may very well turn over to the S.N.P. as well.
Never mind though I can live with 48 S.N.P. M.P.’s in Westminster … oh the squirming, shoogling and jiggling on the government benches will be a sight to behold! 😀
Putting the same figures into the Scotland votes site gives us:
Conservative NIL
Lib Dem 1
Labour 5
S.N.P. 53
link to scotlandvotes.com
Either way these figures make for very relaxing reading on a cold an dreich Tuesday evening! 😛
It isn’t the case of me wanting her or not.
It’s more like the embarrassment to labour.
Personally for me, no, but think of the impact.
@ thedogphilosopher 4:30
Shouldn’t that be OOFFLE dust, as in Sooty and Sweep (the EBC connection)….with Broon and Smurph as the puppets?
FFS….won’t get that out of my head all night now.
@Lesley-Anne
Eleven North British Labour troughers ‘representing’ Scotland is still eleven too many. The hardest seats to win need special attention!
Johnny says:
I notice some unionist twonks are getting excited because a sizeable number in the poll neither agreed nor disagreed with the proposition that falling oil prices affected Scotland. I didn’t take part, but I suspect many were simply annoyed that the question implied that only Scotland was affected (with it not mattering to the UK at all, of course). If you ask the wrong question, expect a funny answer.
Well whatever you do Johnny do NOT under any circumstances show any twonks this! 😀
link to businessinsider.com
Oops … methinks there may be MORE than a couple of Crystal Balls being returned to the manufacturer marked up as “DEFECTIVE!” 😛
Ye thats the point Stuart,as your headline alludes to.
The British State Broadcaster(Scottish Branch),the DR,and the rest of MSM to a greater or lesser degree of Red/Blue Toryness are on Labours side in Scotland.Not to mention Black Ops.
This election will be an update on the waining influence that these corrupt organs still hold over the Scottish people.
If enough people see through them this time then I think we may have reached critical mass in our pursuit of truth and democracy in Scotland.
MajorBloodnok says:
3 February, 2015 at 3:58 pm
“…like a Japanese soldier that doesn’t know the war is over”
Genius Sir, pure genius.
galamcennalath says:
@Lesley-Anne
Eleven North British Labour troughers ‘representing’ Scotland is still eleven too many. The hardest seats to win need special attention!
I totally agree galamcennalath which is why I believe we can NOT let any oportunity to do our bit for the cause to slip us by.
Whilst 11 Labour troughers is eleven far too many it is still a hell of a lot better than the current 41! 😀
@alexicon, 5.13 (O/T)
It’s far too late for Katy Clark to defect with any credibility. If she’d done it in the months before the referendum, maybe – but doing it now, when the polls are bad for her party and she recently lost the deputy leadership election? It just looks like a rat leaving a sinking ship.
And I strongly suspect she knows this, BTW.
Katy Clark would get my vote she is the ONLY person with a sence of whats right and whats wrong
cmon Katy join a party that stands up for Scotland join the SNP
Haven’t read everything yet, so apologies if someone’s posted already but
Live Independence Broadcasting “Europe is Changing” debate
Cat Boyd ON NOW
link to tinyurl.com
Thanks for the link to oil prices Lesley-Anne.
Been trying to get this through to thickos for weeks.
Oil is a finite resource and will get more and more expensive as time goes on e.g. when they’ve fracked the hell out of the U.S. and there’s not a drop left.
How many wars have they fought over it?
Why did the Unionists shit themselves during the Referendum campaign?
Aye, it’s worthless right enough!
Thank god I don’t have an oil well in MY back garden.
…..Oh, forgot….that would belong to the Crown, would it not?
The tollies plan for ENGLISH VOTES FOR ENGLISH LAWS was spelled out by Malcolm Rifkin on the daily politics today. A labour and liberal MP were not impressed as the poor ENGLISH are just being taken for mugs while the nasty jocks were getting everything they ask for and ENGERLAND gets the bill. The jocks need to be put back in their cage and a bit of stern punishment imposed.
The English mps will be totally responsible for English laws right up to the vote prior to implementation when the colonies will be allowed to vote along with the superior masters. This caused mayhem with the Lib/Lab reps. The jocks shouldn’t be allowed to vote on ENGLISH matters. Rifkin very frustrated spelled out there in excess of 500 ENGLISH mps and only 70 or so colonists, nod nod wink wink and a smile from Rifkin the servants get a vote which they can never outvote the 500 master race MPs but we stay the United kingdom because the savages have been allowed a vote in Engerland bussiness, there you go we are united.
The Lib/Lab duo either didn’t get Rifkins con trick or they just want to punish the daft jocks who will swallow this gerimandering of democracy and labour can pretend the scottish Lab office is really powerful and get the Numpties oop North to vote for SLAB again.
Just love the unionist idea of fair play and partners. Bring a tear TAE a glass eye.
@Tamson 7.57. The Katy Clarke defection question should be judged on political effect and logistics – like the need for a YES Allaince in May.
1. Logistically it makes enormous sense for Greens and the like to withdraw in favour of the SNP as it would certainly win a some extra seats. However politically the YES Alliance cannot find a political way of doing it that works for the different parties – or are simply too busy in the face of the election to find the time to work out a political solution.
2. Logistically Katy is beaten already. However politically if the SNP was able to find a home for her and were assured of her loyalty, it would make ‘sticky’ Labour supporters see that there was life after the Labour party – and could help open the floodgates
O/T Now most of you on here may well be SNP folks, however there are many ways to oust Labour, the fundraiser below for the impressive young campaigner Liam McLaughlan, imo, is worth supporting. There will be voters in Glasgow East who will vote SSP but not SNP, all contributes to a reduction in the Labour vote.
link to indiegogo.com
Rev.
You’d better sit down
W.o.S Ggot a mention on BBC Radio Scotland tonight. In the form of a complaint from the Electoral Comission. Claiming you hadn’t filled in their paper work correctly re donations…..
Just as wee taster before the imminent arrival of Lord Ashcroft’s constituency by constituency opinion poll results are released. 😉
link to archive.today
@Albalha – I see he had the sense to set up paypal for the appeal too
Rather than digging their own grave,
the Scottish Red Tories really ought to be planning ahead –
building something for the future
which will be more in tune with the Scotland
which is, even now, beginning to emerge.
Their efforts to change may well be guided
by these ‘signposts’ to Scotlands future.
In the Scotland of the near future,
there will be no political parties from other countries,
not even from London, England. (In future, bankrupt)
Scottish Unionist parties will be obsolete.
Scottish politicians will not be allowed in Westminster.
Scotland will be wealthy, and have a strong economy.
Scotland’s deprived communities will be transformed
by consistent and substantial investment
in health and education; employment and social housing.
A well educated and economically strong population
will require a very different kind of political representation
from that traditionally offered by the Labour Party in Scotland.
Should the Scottish membership of the UK Labour party
fail to make any plans to live in an Independent Scotland,
then Scotland’s people will most likely take very careful note.
This may very well make life very difficult indeed
for any new ‘Labour’ party in Scotland to find support.
In the meantime, they will most likely just keep on digging,
fuelled by their hatred of the SNP,
and their desire to get a seat
aboard the Westminster Gravy Train.
Sad really.
Sorry for going O/T but we’ve just had a wee peek into upgrading our broadband. Apparently where we are we are supposed to be able to get up to 80Mbs. Well that sure as hell beats the current 16.5 Mbs. Being the investigative, curious, nosey people that we are we have started the process to upgrade. In about three weeks you will not be able to see us for dust (metaphorically speaking) on the internet. 😀
Once we are fully up and running we should be getting up to 80 Mbs download speed and up to 20 Mbs upload speed. I’m not sure but that does appear to be a wee bit on the fast side. 😉
Anyone else wanting to check out what broadband speed is available in their area can start off here:
link to digitalscotland.org
Labour petition still going strong – figures have hardly budged since it started – currently there are a lot of Adolfs and Gordons but the Motown singers and Scandinavian Gods seem to be giving it a rest. link to donation.labour.org.uk
So the “Brown bounce” isn’t happening then?
I think it’s worth looking at all the saviour of the union rhetoric. Over the summer of 2014, the polls narrowed but most were along the lines of the final result.
The unionists panicked over one rogue poll and rolled out Gordzilla. Did he turn enough people to the No side? I expect a few thousand did but I believe he only had a minimal effect.
Brown achieved a large Scottish vote in 2010 due mostly to his treatment at the hands of the English media. “One eyed Scottish idiot” is the one insult I remember.
There was the feeling that one of our own was being badly treated and so Brown in effect benefitted from what was basically Scottish nationalist sentiment. As pointed out on this forum yesterday, he had little bearing on the 2011 Holyrood vote.
Brown and the MSM believe their own hype, but the reality is he is a burst balloon that left the UK he professes to love in a much worse state than he found it.
I see on bbc website that Fiji have beaten us to ridding ourselves of the union flag.
Was going to provide the link, then wanted to archive, spent 20 mins trying to work out, then gave up 🙂
Clydebuilt
🙂
EC complaining that Stu didn’t attach all the receipts or something. The return said Wings spent £76,000 during the registered period which seems reasonable. I wonder if the anti-Wings types will claim that
a) Wings spent more than that
b) Wings has no readers and no money and didn’t spend anything
c) Both
The Smurphy and the Broon.
Could you vow a little faster said the Gorgon to the Smurph,
There’s some Yesers close behind us and they’re treading on our turf,
Could you lie a little quicker said the Murphy to Big Gord,
Or I’ll have to do Seppuku by just falling on my sword.
But you know I couldna do it Broon, unless you egged me to,
And I dinna want tae dae it fir ma expense acconut is fu.
(Apology to the Walrus and the Carpenter)
Nice one Robert
Oil price going up again
just saying
@Robert Peffers You, sir, have Waaaay too much time on your hands 😛
@Clydebuilt – the Rev is aware as has been having a twitter conversation with Tim Reid of the BBC about the same.
Looks as though the EC website was not accurate but BBC tweeted it before checking.
Lots of folk complained at Tim Reid and he blocked us all
Personally I don’t think Katy Clarke would move over to the SNP. If anything she would stand again as an Independent as so many labour politicians do when they see the writing on the wall.
Thus saving their snout in the trough.
Anyways, back to statistics and odds:
Jim Longshanks’ seat on the oddschecker shows drifting odds for Labour
link to oddschecker.com then click on the “History” tab
And shortening odds for some bunch of upstarts calling themselves SNP or something
link to oddschecker.com and click on History tab again.
Lord Ashcroft has allegedly been hacked!
Some serious swings to the SNP here.
link to lordashcroftpolls.com
GainS for the SNP.
•Airdrie & Shotts,
•Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill,
•Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East,
•Dundee West,
•Glasgow Central,
•Glasgow East,
•Glasgow North,
•Glasgow North West,
•Glasgow South,
•Glasgow South West,
•Gordon,
•Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey,
•Motherwell & Wishaw,
•Paisley & Renfrewshire South
•West Dunbartonshire.
Labour to hold:
•Glasgow North East (despite 23.5% swing to SNP)
Need to do some work in the Labour hold areas.
Handandshrimp
I noticed on BBC radio Scotland tonight they mentioned 5 registered campaign groups who have transgressed in whatever way… it goes without saying that Wings was the only one given a special mention.
@Linda McFarlane says:3 February, 2015 at 4:13 pm:
“It’s my birthday today.”
Aye! Linda, as you think that poll was a great birthday present I can only wish you many happy, (poll), returns.
;-))
DARFC!
alexicon
Paisley Renfrewshire South is my constituency and Douglas Alexander’s seat with an 18,000 majority from 2010.
If this poll is right, then this must be one of the biggest swings in Scottish political history.
All that street work by our YES Alliance team is paying dividends. But we will not let up until the polls close on 7th May.
Preliminary to fixing the election,the newspapers will report of the change in the polls the BBC will give up to the minute polls showing Labour taking lead from the SNP,and then they can fix all the results that they want and we will lie down like sheep getting shorn.Nobody to stand up for us unless we stand up ourselves and it needs to start now,we need independent people to oversee the general election,its about to be fixed I would not be surprised if the ballot papers had not already been printed and marked accordingly.The new ballot boxes will be shredders to shred our votes.OK probably just sci-fi but some sci-fi has came true!
@Lesley-Anne Re broadband I wish.
For the last 2 weeks ours has been on a roller coaster of 0.4Mb to 6.9Mb but I have found out that it’s raining in India which could be the problem of course.
alexicon,
“Labour to hold:
•Glasgow North East (despite 23.5% swing to SNP)”
Support for ‘Others’ is 10% which is more than the 7% gap between the SNP and Labour.
Is this 10% made up of Socialists/Greens or UKIP?
Socialists/Greens really, really must be persuaded to vote SNP in May.
Nothing must be left to chance, although we won’t be able to do anything about the inevitable rigging.
Alexicon
If that is not a fake then we must expect Labour to get right down in the gutter right up to polling day. If those poll figure are genuine the LD share of the vote means huge amount of lost deposits. They could save a deposit by not contesting the seat.
Those polls look excellent but some still too tight, greens and ssp should save their resources for holyrood
Just one thing to say to the remnants of the current North Labour Branch: if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em. The SNP, SSP, and Scottish Greens are waiting.
@alexicon says:3 February, 2015 at 4:58 pm:
” … It seems that all the SNP has to do is sit back (which I’m sure they won’t) and let the rampant tory press from down south do its job in attacking Miliband and the labour party.”
I’ve the notion that this Tory led move to exclude Scottish Members from votes upon, “English Only”, matters, (of which there is no such animal), will spectacularly backfire upon the Establishment.
Lets just examine the reality rather than the idiocy.
English Members have been voting on Scottish matters for 300 odd years. Since devolution Westminster has become the de facto parliament of country of England.
If they wish to have a Parliament of England dealing with only English matters then I’m 100% for it.
But get the bloody thing out of the UNITED KINGDOM PARLIAMENT and fund it by an English block grant like every other country in the bipartite United Kingdom parliament that England decided to make into a quadratic union of four countries.
At the moment they are legislating for England as if England were the United Kingdom, they tell us that if we leave the bipartite United Kingdom the United Kingdom will still trundle on as the United Kingdom without us. They thus fund England as the United Kingdom. If that was not clear enough that they regard themselves as the United Kingdom and thus Scotland’s masters we had the one and only Tory tell us the truth by saying, “The Treaty of Union extinguished the Kingdom of Scotland and renamed the Kingdom of England as The United Kingdom” I’m getting angry now and they won’t like it when I’m angry – Am I alone in being angry?
link to ukpollingreport.co.uk
Indigo,
“Those polls look excellent but some still too tight, greens and ssp should save their resources for holyrood”
Both Colin Fox and Patrick Harvie have stated that their parties will stand candidates in every seat.
Given the situation, this is total madness. Not only will they lose 59 deposits each, they will let Labour win several seats due to a split vote.
In contrast, immediately after the referendum result, Tommy Sheridan called on Yes supporters to vote for the SNP in May 2015.
Just a thought. Do you think the red torries will bring out their messiah a certain Tony B liar, when they realise the electorate are not buying the shit Brown and Murphy are pedalling.
If the Scottish electorate take in what the red torries say then this country is well and truly F%CKED.
Excluding Thatcher, Bliar and Brown are the two most useless, brain dead, inbred and pathetic PMs this country has ever had, and the labour supporters must be totally stupid if they believe what the party says.
And as for Murphy, he is a total Scone.
Gary
@Rock – I mentioned that tentatively on twitter and got accused of arrogance.
Some people are unhappy because there has been no formal Yes alliance but with the best will in the world it’s highly unlikely that the SSP or Greens in Scotland will gain enough votes in FPTP.
Oh Charles P O, that was laugh out loud funny at the end of your post…although I’m completely of the same mind…the very idea of shredders shredding out votes is just hysterical…LOL…thanks for that :-))
cynicalHighlander says:
@Lesley-Anne Re broadband I wish.
For the last 2 weeks ours has been on a roller coaster of 0.4Mb to 6.9Mb but I have found out that it’s raining in India which could be the problem of course.
Sorry to hear that you’re having broadband problems CH! 🙁
I think you are 100% correct in your analysis however and it is indeed down to the rain falling in India that is causing you all these problems. 😀
That hack is a thing of beauty especially as North Lanarkshire all goes SNP. About time.
The National’s front page for tomorrow;
link to twitter.com
‘Curran and Alexander predicted to lose their seats.’
Greens and ssp could stand a token candidate in areas they have strong membership in
If they split the yes vote in this critically important GE to such an extent that labour squeaks a strong showing it will be much more difficult in the longer term to pull together on a future yes platform. This election we need to win by playing Westminster’s game, the can graciously bow out of this one without losing any face, it’ll be disappointing in the extreme if they fight every seat
@ Robert Peffers
No, you are not alone in your anger. You have explained far better than I could the complexities of the deceit, and yes it does need repetition to understand, new readers will be enlightened even if some old lumps are a bit stuck in their ruts.
Loved your 9:24 input.
Long may your lum do its wotsit xx
O/T
Thanks to Chic McGregor and Helena Brown for your kind words about the blog – and also to everyone who clicked on the link.
Ashcroft poll leak
not sure if it’s legit
link to lordashcroftpolls.com
We need to get out of this Union ASAP.
The SNP could write into their 2016 Manifesto, that if you vote for the SNP, then you are giving them the right to hold a Referendum on Scottish Independence.
This Referendum will be held in 2018.
I personally don’t think that this is too far off from becoming reality.
@rock and Indego; It would be illogical for the Greens and SSP to reduce their political profiles in the run up to the 2016 election without some quidproquo from the SNP.
Wishing it to be so is not enough. These parties have a right to a future too and have to keep up their profile. SNP members who were part of mixed YES alliance teams and ‘get it’ need to sell the idea of making a deal palatable to one or both these parties. They need to sell it internally to those in SNP who were not in mixed teams and are not aware of how dynamic they were – otherwise there will be at least 6 winnable seats lost.
if you look at
link to lordashcroftpolls.com
there is some interesting results down south. UKIP not doing much except in Grimbsy and the greens holding Birghton.
@karmanaut says: 3 February, 2015 at 6:02 pm:
“http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/sir-malcom-rifkind-giving-english-mps-the-final-say-on-english-matters-a-fair-way-to-preserve-our-union.html”
I’m all for English Members of an English Parliament voting on English Only Matters.
What I don’t like is English MPs wearing two hats, (one as a UK member and one as an English member),and running the United Kingdom Parliament as the de facto Parliament of the country of England and thus voting on English Only matters that cannot be actual English only matters as long as England is funded as the UK.
Vote SNP and get justice for English voters by getting them their own parliament.
@ john king 7:14 pm
It may be that the video was staged and that the pilot was killed some time ago
link to rt.com
Question is – what was a Jordanian pilot doing flying over Iraq?
There’s a lot of lib-dem and c(small version)onservatives in my constituency toying with the idea of voting Green – just saying like.
Never seen someone ripped so much apart than I did of “Balls Up” tonight of EBC Newsnight. Embarrassing. Rev you need to expose this fud. Sorry for watching it but keep an eye on your …………????
O/T Just saw a tweet from iScot magazine on the Rev’s twitter account.
Good news, you’ll be able to pick up a copy from the middle of this month at newsagents all over Scotland.
My big hope is that not only will Yes supporters buy it but those who care about Scotland whatever they voted.
I don’t believe there will be a Green candidate in every seat, whatever Patrick Harvie may have said. My information locally is that out of the 4 seats they will contest only one. There is still time for that to change, of course, but I would be rather surprised if it did.
@ Robert Peffers
No you are not the only one getting angry. But what is to be done?
@ Linda McFarlane
Happy birthday before it’s too late. Hope you have enjoyed today. Things can only get better (to coin a phrase!).
Those polls if true are hugely impressive and follow up Cochrane’s panicked scribblings last week about Gordon going Eck.
I know a few SSP, Green supporters who are all backing the SNP. I think most will especially as come 2016, they have a much larger and better chance of success.
Paula Rose
With all due respect a vote for Green candidate in Scotland in May will only help the Westminster establishment.
If these polling figures are correct, the Labour seat for life is threatened. Some of the margins are tight so the amount of actual campaigning in the seats will make a difference. The SNP’s increased membership should make it a very interesting Westminster election since the 10th October 1974 and hopefully a far better result that we had on that day.
I wish Green and SSP voters would realise that I’m sure we all support their views and I would be more than happy to support them fully (and Tommy Sheridan) in the Holyrood elections.
Wouldn’t it be great if we had SNP. Greens,. SSP and Tommy all in Holyrood?
The unionist parties deserve to be voted out
@William Duguid
No thanks required. Indeed it is I who should be thanking you for creating such a witty and bitingly bang on blog.
I do not know you but I think I know when I see contributions which might further the indy cause and, as is common practice in the indy community, such instances are communicated to others as a matter of course. Its as simple as that.
If any one wants to watch the mentioned BBC2 Inside the Commons, part 1, here’s the iplayer link:
link to bbc.co.uk
Crazycat, Well the greens have nominated their candidate for Inverness. It has been pointed out that is perhaps not the best decision to make in a 4way marginal, but they are not for budging
OT Brent crude oil price getting close to that $60 price which is crucial to the North Sea (break even + for the vast majority of fields)
Yep F***k up extreme by The Balls Up
Replies how clued up Liebor UK are re:- big business mates then quotes the biggest supporter of his opposition party,
OOPS! What’s HIS Name?
Eh!! Eh!!
BILL?????
Face Palm!!!!
FUD!!!!
Defo
Alan MacKintosh,
If Ashcroft’s poll figures are correct, it won’t make any difference.
link to lordashcroftpolls.com
Con 10%
Lab 13%
Lib 21%
Oth 6%
aaaand…
SNP 50%!
Sinky honey – a lib-dem voting green helps westminster? I think not.
James Kelly has a wee piece about the *ahem* leaked figures of Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling figures. Only 16 constituencies list, so far, but still makes for some interesting reading. 😉
link to scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk
Now that everyone has had a look at the likely outcomes of the forthcoming election can i say to the supporters of all parties not the SNP to lend your vote to the SNP for this one off time
The smaller parties in Scotland have little to no chance of returning an MP but would split votes in possibly close areas which may allow Labour a chance and that chance is something we should not give them, just take a look at Gordon Constituency where the opposition parties are not themselves trying to win the seat they are working with each other in order to stop Alex Salmond winning
I know in my own area which is Lib Dem, Labour are targeting our SNP Candidate because Labour themselves cannot win but by splitting the vote allowing the Lib Dems to win they achieve from their point of view a victory which is Stop the SNP
So you can see why every vote for the SNP is vital in stopping Westminster rolling over us yet again, this in no way is meant in that you should not continue to hold whatever conviction to whichever party is your preference for the Scottish Elections it would be, as i have said a one off, and in the words of Julian Clary ” I thank you “
Chic McGregor says:
OT Brent crude oil price getting close to that $60 price which is crucial to the North Sea (break even + for the vast majority of fields
You may be interested in this.
link to tinyurl.com
@Paula Rose says: 3 February, 2015 at 11:10 pm:
“No, you are not alone in your anger. You have explained far better than I could the complexities of the deceit, and yes it does need repetition to understand, new readers will be enlightened even if some old lumps are a bit stuck in their ruts.”
Honestly, Lesley-Anne, I’ve been so long a political anorak that I very rarely get angry. For one thing I’ve heard it all before. It is almost always an asset that a clear, calm head full of facts and a good command of both Scots & English can win most debates. If you do not get angry.
This one though has really made me boil. I’m not quite sure whether it is because the whole situation is so very clear to anyone who can think. These numpties have mulled over the West Lothian Question for years. Eventually changed the two kingdom United Kingdom into a set-up of four separate countries but without separating the English Parliament from the United Kingdom Parliament. They thus set-up the barrow-load of trouble that is hitting them now.
As I see it they are either total idiots, or think that we are. If they cannot figure out that if they want England to only control English matters they must separate England from the United Kingdom Parliament and from being funded as the United Kingdom and thus place all four countries on an equal footing.
Anything less is a recipe for disaster – a disaster for both their England and their United Kingdom, not Scotland’s disaster. If Scots do not now become resentful they deserve what is coming towards them at a high rate of knots and that will be Scotland’s disaster.
Nice one Ally.
Bye bye Danny Alexander.
Time to defect to the Blue Tories. You will be quite at home there.
Only problem you may find it difficult to find a safe seat in england – they do not like scots anymore.
If not try the City of London – they have no scruples.
@ Robert Peffers,
No, my friend, you are not alone!
Thanks for saying it for me.
The SSP and Greens have to start somewhere, I agree that in 2015 they should lend their vote to the SNP as that is the best chance they have in getting real representation in Scotland 2016 and in an Independent Scotland.
Also it is not the case that they will “steal” votes from the SNP in any seats they do choose to stand in. They are just as likely to “steal” Labour votes.
Calm down folks, if the SNP vote doesn’t budge you have no problems. I’m and SSP member and I will absolutely vote SNP in 2015.
Please pay attention to this though, when it comes to 2016 the chances of the smaller parties purely rest with the regional or list vote.
This has a very peculiar way of working. The more list votes you get the lower the weighting of your regional vote.
For example in 2011 SNP got 45% of the list vote winning 53 seats, yet 44% of the regional vote only gave them 16 seats. In contrast Labours 32% of the list vote gave them 15 seats, but only 26% of the regional vote gave them 22 seats!
If SNP voters gave their regional votes to the pro Yes parties then you could almost wipe out Labour and guarantee pro Yes, left leaning representatives in Holyrood.
I believe the list vote for the SNP will be so high that you will be lucky to get 5 seats on the regional vote, however using your second vote for the SSP or Green could get at least an additional 15 to 20 pro Yes MSP’s in Holyrood at the expense of Lib/Lab/Con.
It’s time to get real and work together.
Hopefully someone far more acquainted than me can explain it better than I can. Scottish Skier I’m calling for assistance!
Seriously, In May do the Green Party and especially a smallish party like the SSP have money to burn? 59 lost deposits each, financial stupidity. Keep the money for next year, invest it in a short term ISA, do something useful with it. Standing in marginals, splitting the vote is just madness, when you are smart you pick your fights.
And before anyone says anything, I am not now, nor ever have been an SNP member.
Methinks this is what is making the odd individual rather excited. 😉
link to lordashcroftpolls.com
@Patrician
I don’t know the facts but I seriously doubt either the SSP or Greens will be standing a candidate in every constituency despite what Rock says.
My own view a token candidate where they believe they have support. Thay are of course entitled to stand in any seat, but they are not stupid. We’ll see.
Faltdubh says:
I know a few SSP, Green supporters who are all backing the SNP. I think most will especially as come 2016, they have a much larger and better chance of success.
If these samples are correct, then I think it will concentrate a few more minds.
SNP is social democratic, anti-nuclear, with high green energy targets, and provides the most pressure for more powers.
These tick most of the Green boxes anyway, so it beats me why anyone would still vote for them at FPTP elections they have no chance to win.
SSP voters are probably more conflicted, but it’s a 2 horse race in areas they are stronger in. Why not stick it to the red Tory?
@Omwards
SSP voters are probably more conflicted, but it’s a 2 horse race in areas they are stronger in. Why not stick it to the red Tory?>/i>
That’s exactly what I did try to say, please pay attention LOL.
Well, this week’s been good so far! 🙂
@ Robert Peffers 10:54
You’re not alone in that Robert.
Well said.
@Rock.
I don’t know, I’m only passing on the information.
@Marcia.
They would need to come up from the sewer to be in the gutter.
@Chick MCGregor.
Would it surprise you to know that the platform I am on has lifting costs for each barrel of oil of between $11-£15.
I do believe that cost for the operator is across all their 7 assets. That includes cost of helicopters, supply vessels and man power etc.
I’ve never heard of any operator in the north sea having lifting costs of $60 a barrel, the only operator I have heard of having about the highest cost is bp.
Oil companies have the ball at their feet right now, they see a great opportunity to screw the workforce, which they are doing, cut the cost of chopper flights, supply vessels, vendors etc. and they see the chance to get back the tax from the UK government. They have it both ways and they are still making big profits even at $50 a barrel.
I have posted this on the Herald comment section many times over the last few weeks, but for some reason they will not allow it through the moderators. I think it goes against their not so hidden agenda.
@Alexicon
That is good to hear. I am only working off a recent MSM quote where they said the break even figure for 90% of the wells was $60 per barrel.
Which doesn’t actually contradict what you are saying (maybe 10% of the wells are much higher than the rest?).
But $60 per barrel, however relevant it actually is, is the figure they have ‘put out there’ and therefore may have landmark status on those who picked up on that.
@Alan Mackintosh 12.16. I had been thinking of working in Inverness, was in Moray in the referendum and unlikely to be needed there.
I am upset about so many of you ‘wishing Greens were not standing’ rather than making genuine suggestions as to ho a quidproquo could be organised.
Simple ideas like writing to SNP HQ and Harvie or to the Greens in Inverness that the SNP will write a letter guaranteeing them no1 in the regional list in 2016
Frankly, were I in any position of influence, you would be unable to stop me bringing the parties to a cafe, and buying everyone a coffee, and doing a draft deal on the back of an envelope.
Grrrr
@Chic McGregor.
Maybe the MSM is getting confused with fracking?
It doesn’t matter if 1 well is performing better than the other it all goes on the same total of the platforms production.
Now if you consider it costs money to maintain a well, i.e. work-overs (drilling) etc. this happens every few years and if that well is not productive, I mean producing next to nothing, then they will either close it in or convert it to inject gas or even water to keep the reservoir healthy.
The money spent on work-overs of the wells is recouped in a matter of days.
@alexicon
No doubt the MSM will put the worst gloss on it possible or maybe even just make it up.
the pnr is correct,
tactical voting in 2011 would potentially reduced the labour party to the 4th party in scotland
I didnt expect the result the snp got in 2011, but if it is repeated in 2015ge, or bettered,then i would be more confident of a result in 2016 he.
in which case, in some of, if not all 8 regions, i would push for an snp constituency vote and a ssp/sg list vote. this would loose the snp a few msps, but the chance to get rid of wullie rennie and ruthie and reduce slab to the 4th party in scotland would be too good an opportunity to miss. also, i would jump at the chance to be back out canvassing with the other sg/ssp guys who i worked with during the yes campaign. I understand the ssp/sg desire to stand candidates in the ge, and while paula rose maybe correct that the greens may take voters away from the lib dems, if in any seat in scotland in this ge, the sg/ssp are seen to split the vote and allow a unionist back in
the scottish alliance maybe over for good. Tommy sheridan and solidarity may stand 8 list mps in every area.
2011 actual result
constit+list
SNP 53 + 16 = 69
Lab 15 + 22 = 39
Tory 3 + 12 = 15
LibDems 2 + 3 = 5
Indy 0 + 1 = 1
Greens 0 + 2 = 2
If all SNP votes on the List had been for SSP/green
SNP 53 +0 = 53
Labour 15 +7 = 22
Tory 3 + 5 = 8
LibDems 2 + 0 = 2
Indy 0 + 0 = 0
Greens/SSP 0 + 44 = 44
@Cadogan Enright
i have been explaining to msp members in my constituency how the list votes are actually counted and highlighting the blatent fact that many of the snp list votes are wasted due to the way the list vote is counted. I will be proposing a 1. snp 2. green/ssp vote in 2016 he at my branch after the ge. indeed cadogan, we may need to if we wipe out all the unionists in the 2015 ge. that may precipitate the demise of all scottish unionist(slab,tory,libdem) parties and the creation of a single unionist party in scotland.
fyi
a worked example from NE scotland region from 2011 holyrood election. (i chose NE scotland since the snp won all 10 constituency seats and it makes the arithmatic simpler)
constituency seats
snp = 10
lab = 0
lib = 0
tory = 0
List seat results
snp = 140,749
lab = 43,893
tory = 31,681
lib = 18,178
1st list seat
number of votes divided by the number of constituency seats won + 1
snp = 140,749 ÷ 11 = 12795
lab = 43,893 ÷ 1 = 43,893
tory = 31,681 ÷1 = 31,681
lib = 18,178 ÷1 = 18,178
labour won 1st list seat
2nd list seat
number of votes divided by the number of constituency seats won and list seats + 1
snp = 140,749 ÷ 11 = 12795
lab = 43,893 ÷ 2 = 21946
tory = 31,681 ÷1 = 31,681
lib = 18,178 ÷1 = 18,178
torys won 2nd list seat
3rd list seat
number of votes divided by the number of constituency seats won and list seats + 1
snp = 140,749 ÷ 11 = 12795
lab = 43,893 ÷ 2 = 21946
tory = 31,681 ÷2 = 15840
lib = 18,178 ÷1 = 18,178
labour won 3rd list seat
4th list seat
number of votes divided by the number of constituency seats won and list seats + 1
snp = 140,749 ÷ 11 = 12795
lab = 43,893 ÷ 3 = 14,631
tory = 31,681 ÷2 = 15,840
lib = 18,178 ÷1 = 18,178
libdems won 4th list seat
5th list seat
number of votes divided by the number of constituency seats won and list seats + 1
snp = 140,749 ÷ 11 = 12795
lab = 43,893 ÷ 3 = 14,631
tory = 31,681 ÷2 = 15,840
lib = 18,178 ÷2 = 9089
Tories won 5th list seat
6th list seat
number of votes divided by the number of constituency seats won and list seats + 1
snp = 140,749 ÷ 11 = 12795
lab = 43,893 ÷ 3 = 14,631
tory = 31,681 ÷3 = 10,560
lib = 18,178 ÷2 = 9089
labour won 6th list seat
7th list seat
number of votes divided by the number of constituency seats won and list seats + 1
snp = 140,749 ÷ 11 = 12795
lab = 43,893 ÷ 4 = 10,973
tory = 31,681 ÷3 = 10,560
lib = 18,178 ÷2 = 9089
snp won 7th list seat
total list seats
snp = 1
lab = 3
lib = 1
tory = 2
Substituting the snp with ssp/sg would have given
North East Scotland
ssp/sg = 5
lab = 1
lib = 0
tory = 1
here are the losses
SNP -1
Mark McDonald
Labour -2
Jenny Marra
Lewis MacDonald
Tory -1
Nanette Milne
LibDem -1
Alison McInnes
SSP or Greens +5
@schrodingers cat
Well done, spells it all out much better than I could, if all Green and SSP voted for SNP in their constituency seats and the SNP returned the favour in the regional seats?
Well, pro Indy parties would almost wipe the board. I’d suggest you polish this up a bit and submit as an article to the Rev.
liz,
“with the best will in the world it’s highly unlikely that the SSP or Greens in Scotland will gain enough votes in FPTP.”
Indigo”
Greens and ssp could stand a token candidate in areas they have strong membership in”
Cadogan Enright,
“It would be illogical for the Greens and SSP to reduce their political profiles in the run up to the 2016 election without some quidproquo from the SNP.”
I don’t think there is a single constituency that even the combined Socialist/Green vote comes anywhere near the SNP vote (current polling).
‘Raising their profile’ in 2015 will achieve absolutely nothing. Not only will it let Labour win in many constituencies, SNP voters will not vote for them in the 2016 list vote.
If they vote for the SNP, the goodwill will be returned by SNP voters in 2016.
This is a Westminster election like no other before and even token Socialist/Green candidates will cause irreparable damage.
@Rock
FFS I think for once we actually agree!