As night follows day
As we predicted last week, the BNP is now encouraging its members to join UKIP. The image below is taken from a Nick Griffin article on the former’s website. We’ve put it up as a screenshot in order to avoid linking to the site, but if you really want to find the entire piece you can Google for any of the phrases in the extract below.
(We do love the description of Farage as an “internationalist”, though. That’ll put him in good company with all the Labour sorts who insist we need to have Tory governments we don’t vote for in order to show “solidarity” with the rest of the UK, which does.)
At the last UK general election, UKIP secured almost 920,000 votes, with the BNP getting just over 560,000. With UKIP support surging, those extra half-a-million votes could well help tip Nigel Farage’s party into more winning positions. (The Greens got a seat with just 265,000 votes nationwide.)
The politics of England ARE moving to the right, faster than many ever dared to fear, and both Labour and the Tories are being dragged with them. We’re just saying.
Speaking of racist undertones, (not)Smart’s shaky non-apology cameo on Scotland Tonight (7/4/2013) has gone up on Moridura’s youtube channel.
Makes you wonder who the ‘separatists’ are, as England drifts away from Europe, closes its borders to incomers, and evicts those already there.
And let’s hope the YES campaign and the SNP, in particular, nip in the bud the SNP/UKIP both protest parties comparisons, so much in common etc, I’m just saying.
I am forcefully reminded of what Billy Bragg said,
“…England now needs a party like the SNP, a “civic nationalist party” to offer a left-of-centre alternative to voters south of the Border.”
http://www.billybragg.co.uk/press/story.php?ID=298
Essentially England will become isolationist while London is rebuilt as a City State on-shore tax haven. The Home Counties will be the idle retreat for the financiers and politicians with the West Country as the weekend getaway. The rest of England will survive as a zombie attachment, existing only so its best and brightest can make their way down the HS2 line to London as quickly as possible. BNP/UKIP will never win but they could very well get strong enough to affect policy, as will be their tactics. If you can’t beat the Tories, then join them, then influence them.
Albalha – I dunno like, I reckon calling the party of government in Scotland a protest vote party is a pretty stupid move, considering there are people who they’re trying to woo to their side (or stop from moving to a Yes) who are basically being accused of voting for the SNP just as a protest. If I voted SNP in 2011 but was a No voter, I’d be thinking “haud on, that wasn’t a protest vote – do these guys even realise why the SNP won?”
“England now needs a party like the SNP, a “civic nationalist party” to offer a left-of-centre alternative to voters south of the Border.””
It does, desperately. For one thing, assuming there is a referendum on the EU, which now looks inevitable, who will be arguing for them? Surely there must be many in Britain, and working in the EU who want to remain in and whose interests are very much in remaining in. Who’ll be representing them?
“And let’s hope the YES campaign and the SNP, in particular, nip in the bud the SNP/UKIP both protest parties comparisons, so much in common etc, I’m just saying.”
Indeed. One English based journalist on GMS this morning said ‘we thought the SNP were a protest party and look what happened, so who knows with UKIP?’. Needless to say the comparison went unchallenged.
The language used in the BNP leaflet also helps to explain why so many left of centre types in England (e.g. ‘titler’ on the ‘who hates ya baby’ thread) have a – let’s be generous and say – ‘imperfect’ understanding of what nationalism in Scotland – civic, inclusive – really means. They will read Griffin’s blurring of the boundaries between nation and race and assume the same philosophy obtains in the SNP too.
@dougdaniel
The point is one of comparison as I, think, I clearly said. So to be clear the argument I have heard, and reckon we’ll hear more of, goes like this, ‘the SNP, like UKIP started out as a protest party/vote and look where they are now’ ……. it’s about linking them in the minds of voters as being parties who define their ‘nationalism’ in terms of who they don’t like. Anything will be tried to discourage a YES vote.
The most recent person making the point was T Crichton on the wireless this morning, of course people like that can be written off as ‘ the to be ignored’, however they have a platform.
@trainingday
Indeed, I didn’t see your post before posting. As I say it was the Daily Record’s Torquil Crichton.
Albalha – ah, yeah you’ve got a point there. The “nationalism” comparison is certainly a lot more worrying than the “protest party” one.
@dougdaniel
I’m probably picking away here but stage one is to make a seemingly harmless link, in this case that both parties started out as protest parties to the big players, that’s the hook. The protest is not about the SNP now but rather their having roots, ergo views, in common with UKIP.
@Cath 2.51
Sadly, I’d have to say nobody significant represents people who want to stay in the EU in rUK. Since the self-immolation of the LD’s in the Coalition, the pro-EU voices in the Tory and Lab parties have little chance against the antis in both parties, and the overwhelmingly hostile media.
UKIP have emerged as the protest party in England very largely due to the abject failure of the other 3 parties to articulate any REAL alternative vision for where England should go. I watched in horror last week as 30% of voters in West Sussex voted UKIP; they can’t all be racist bigots, however misguided I find their support for the fruitcakes, loons and closet racists who undoubtedly are in UKIP.
The fact is, Britain as a polity IS broken; I reckon the EU referendum is already essentially lost; if it were held today, I have no doubt the result would be to pull out, and I don’t see much changing in England to change people’s minds; the “honestly” believe what they read in the press and hear on TV and attribute a huge variety of ills to the EU. Like Lawson in his pronouncements today, they are naive enough to believe that withdrawing from the EU will be relatively simple, and that it will not really have much of a negative impact if they do. Even more scarily, most would STILL vote to withdraw even if they thought it would be a bad move economically, such is their atavistic, reactionary desire to “repatriate” powers from Brussels.
Interestingly for Better Together in the Scottish context, (as Ian Bell pointed out in the Herald today) they are essentially doing what BT accuse nationalists in Scotland of doing, but with considerably LESS justification or hope of a positive outcome. Leaving the EU would likely cause huge issues for the UK economy & take quite a while to negotiate; even once done, UK (or rUK if Scotland has voted Yes in ’14) will still be trading extensively with the EU, but have no say in EU policy. There are I would reckon many MORE uncertainties for the UK, and they are of considerably more potential impact, than those which BT insist face Scotland and make indy so problematic. These difficulties are all however likely to be dismissed or glossed over by the little Englanders in their desperation to stick 2 fingers up to Johnny Foreigner.
I hope even more now that Scotland does vote Yes in ’14; at least that way the Scots can at least decide for themselves whether they want to remain in the EU, rather than have the decision made for them!
There is a real danger to the establishment elite of trying to link UKIP and the SNP in the minds of voters. And that is that there is some reality to the link in that both have seen a rise in votes because voters the length and breadth of the UK are sick of the establishment elite and their parties.
Mostly UKIP only attracts far right, anti-EU loons so far. But linking them in voters minds with the SNP – a party many in England wish they had something similar to – could backfire very badly. In Scotland, they’ve been in government for 6 years. Even relatively committed Labour unionists I know don’t buy the “the SNP are all racist Nazis” line. But no one in England knows yet what UKIP would be like in government. So linking them is surely more likely to prompt some to vote in hope rather than make Scots think the SNP are anything like them?
While not surprising, it is becoming more and more worrying by the day how far to the right we’ll be dragged by Westminster if we don’t get a Yes vote next year.
And how skin-crawlingly horrible is the use of the euphamism ‘racially aware’ in that statement?
Albalha and Doug Daniel,
This approach was tried in Aberdeen (to my certain knowledge) and maybe other places during the 2007 election. Many Nigerian and Polish folk that I canvassed had been confused by opposition canvassers on whether the SNP was the Scottish BNP.
The ‘Alex Salmond for first Minister’ slogans and literature were the simplest antidote though, as they recognised him and understood the policies that he put forward to be anything but racist…… and we gained their vote.
I think this tactic is another betterNo fallback that exposes one of their real Achilles heels during this campaign. That is the subconscious focus on an electorate that will have no say on the outcome of our referendum.
They understandably find it easier to peddle their strawman stereotypes of who they wished their political opponents were by talking to an electorate that is unfamiliar with the realities of an SNP Government, rather than form real arguments to try and gain actual traction among the current Scots electorate that will have a vote and make the decision.
The BBC and MSM are just another of those uncritical and cheerleading audiences that are encouraging this focus on external opinion among betterNO.
This is probably the only benefit of such a biased media environment.
We cannot help England now, we can only help ourselves.
@Max
I believe we can help England (rUK) by voting YES and showing them the failures of their right wing policies.
I do get the feeling though that many of the anti-EU crowd will shit their pants in a polling booth over it.
Help defeat UKIP by getting a sign for your car:
http://tinyurl.com/dydnhtv
Been said by folk here already – notably Doug and Albalha – but we should be prepared for the conflation of all nationalisms in the UK media now. In the context of Ian Smart’s outrageous attempts to smear the independence movement in the last few days we can expect the very worst. There will be casual name-calling, passing references, more or less an incessant drizzle of media innuendo and baseless lies.
BNP, SNP, nationalism. Even if you gave most of the press the benefit of pure motives (which, of course, they don’t have) it’s just too easy a fusion to make and too tedious a difference for the poor wee souls to keep pointing out.
‘Ach, they’re all the same.’ We’re gonnae hear that rather a lot, I’m afraid.
OT.
Does everyone else see the recent Twitter feed column? Some times it’s there, other times not.
Freddie Threepwood,
but the electorate are not daft. Given a rigorous face to face campaign it will have very little effect among those that actually have the power to decide.
Do you really think the rise of the UKIP in England is going to harm our chances of converting Scots Labour supporters to a left leaning Independent Scotland?
This is the kind of ‘through the looking glass’ logic that erupts when very poor politicians are encouraged in their hopes and fantasies by a non critical and equally desperate MSM.
@Braco
Heartening stuff but what about the voters who don’t have the benefit of someone like you cutting through the crap? This is only going to increase. And it’s also about the ‘Tartan Tory’ … anti-Catholic, anti-Irish slurs, which sadly, in the densely populated West of Scotland, still have traction.
I Smart had a plan.
Somewhat tangential, but vaguely “race” related. Scotland is likely to have its first French MSP very soon. The SNP’s only list MSP for the North East seems set to resign so that he can contest the Aberdeen Donside constituency byelection, and the next SNP candidate on the list is French citizen Christian Allard. Vive l’Écosse! Vive l’Écosse libre!
@holebender
Alors ca c’est vraiment une bonne nouvelle.
@Juteman
@ Rev
I haven’t seen it for a couple of day’s
@Juteman
@ Baheid
@ Rev
Someone mentioned it a few days ago, Rev said working fine. Started being an issue just after the Union News and Support Wingsland banners got fixed.
You should have it bookmarked or open in another tab – its an easy one to remember.
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland
Albalha,
As I am from Motherwell, unfortunately I know all about the Ian Smart types, their plans and mealy mouthed deniabilities.
All I can say to you is that their lies are all starting to coalesce and therefor becoming more and more obvious as time goes by.
When the Orange Order and The Green Brigade are being asked to and are happily sharing a tent, then it doesn’t take someone like me to point out the obvious hypocricies to the population.
That I and many more people like me are there to reinforce those thoughts and spread ridicule is simply the stilleto in their heart.
It’s a very old horse they are riding but it’s almost dead. They can keep flogging it but it will never time travel them back the thirty years plus necessary to reach a large enough Scots electorate that would care enough about that kind of thing to actually change their vote.
You know we are not Nationalists in the UK media sense of the word, Unionists know that and the general Scots electorate certainly know that!
For this kind of spin to work it relies on the premise that the general public are not like us politically aware and media savvy folk, but rather ‘low information’ voters who will swallow whatever crap we decide to cleverly serve them up, irrespective of their own day to day experiences and feelings on the matter.
Well that’s not working in Scotland ( but for the life of me I don’t understand why it seems to be working in England!)
Sorry to go off topic Rev but had waited to see if anyone would comment – My wife and I attended the YES event in Dunfermline last night. Chaired by Shirley-Anne Somerville. Panel was Denis Canavan, Alan Grogan – Labour, Derek Durkin of Trade Unionists for Independence, Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh – National Women’s Officer and Ivan McKee of Business for Scotland. A very good attendance of probably 200 – good that roughly 40 percent were women and there were numerous youngsters which made for a very good age range – this was commented on by a panellist. I only saw about 6 empty seats – Well run event and lots of good questions and answers. Ivan McKee was very optimistic about the future of business in an independent Scotland and described clearly how pensions would work. Derek Durkin commented that each meeting he went to the numbers were increasing. Denis Canavan’s closing comments turned into a rousing finale. One last comment – Tasmin Ahmed-Sheikh is a politician in waiting. Clear and concise in her delivery and clear in thought and comment.
I hate seeing the word “nationalist” when used in this context. The word seems to have different meanings depending on what side of the border you are on. To me it is “open and inclusive” to them it is “closed and exclusive”.
I reckon that many people in England must view the SNP as something similar to the BNP just how wrong can they be?
I have said it before and I will say it again. Imagine looking at your ballot paper with the choice of (with usual apologies to Greens and Independents)
Conservative
Labour
Lib/Dem
UKIP
BNP
I can’t understand why there isn’t a new moderate party starting up in England. There must be millions south of the border that are left completely disenfranchised. I hope that a successful independent Scotland next door might be a catalyst for change in England. Even if we are independent I am not convinced that having a country ran by any of the above on our border is desirable to say the least.
@Braco
More power to your elbow, as an East coaster living in Glasgow it’s all rather unseemly, yes, I suppose that sounds rather snotty, guilty as charged.
What about your fellow ‘Well man, T Cowan, I think he’s ripe for turning?
To win this we need the West, Central Belt votes, I like your Orange O/Green Brigade point as an argument.
My part of the world, Angus and Dundee are shoe in majority YES voters. So it’ll take people like you who know their West coast/Central belt patch to get us over the line.
After all the Lib Dem strongholds, if they hold strong, are pretty irrelevant.
Bill McLean,
‘One last comment – Tasmin Ahmed-Sheikh is a politician in waiting. Clear and concise in her delivery and clear in thought and comment.’
Maybe she’s good at learning her lines for each new part she gets to play? Wonder what part she will next play?
It seems that Nick Griffin is saying that Ukip is an Exceptable Far Right Nationalist Party.
So what griffin wants, is for people who support the objectives of the far right, but who have not joined because they fear their membership of BNP is leaked, with all that entails, to join Ukip and work to promote even further shifts to the Right.
So Ukip will be nudging the three main parties in England to the right, and they will by definition nudge the parties in Scotland to the right, as this is happening, the BNP will be nudging Ukip further to the extreme right, So the main parties will shift closer to the extreme right……and so on !
Ian Smart will be right at home in the Labour Party.
Braco – she did mention that she was an actress – I still think she has great potential as a politician!
If I was Willie Young, prospective Labour candidate for Aberdeen Donside, I would run away quickly. Interviewed on STV he tried to copy JoLam with jibbering, jabbering and then he nearly joined the SNP. I have to go change mah pants……PML
I see Lizzie is not Queen of Scots any more, just Queen of England.
Unless she’s planning to come up here and state at Holyrood she supports her Scottish Government’s plans to fight for independence.
Anyhoo, can’t say she’ll be missed.
@holebender:
I’ve met Christian Allard a few times. He would make an excellent MSP.
@Braco
The issue here is not one of content, rather presentation. I made no point beyond the prediction that the unionist MSM will make no great effort to distinguish between BNP/UKIP nationalism and SNP nationalism – quite the opposite, in fact.
Of course it is up to us to state the bleedin’ obvious at each and every opportunity but (absolutely pointing no elbows) I am tired of having to remind folk of the over wheening power of the MSM. For all that we despise and disparage it – it still is what it is – a massive machine with easy access to millions of lives.
Take Ian Smart’s performance on STV the other night. Has anyone asked themselves why he even agreed to go on in the first place? He couldn’t deny what he’d written and all attempts before and during the programme to weasel some sort of justification and/or misinterpretation out of his words were doomed to failure as he, a successful lawyer, knew fine well. Yet, he sat in smug self-satisfaction throughout the interview and ended with a happy grin.
Why? Because he’d accomplished what he’d set out to do – to have the issue of Scottish nationalism discussed in the same context as intolerance and racism. We and any other informed and right-thinking observer know he was talking through his arse. But for many folk he will have either sparked the idea of a conflation between Scottish nationalism and racism, or rekindled an old, prejudicial suspicion that there is more than a little anti-Englishness to all this independence malarky.
The issue’s been the papers and now on the telly, folk are talking about it … there might be something to it.
What I’m saying – all I’m saying – is that we must not be complacent about this. Being in the right won’t be enough when our opponents know of no depths to which they will not stoop in order to win the day.
Albalha,
Some of that snotty is why I have ended up traveling around most of my life! My family and a lot of my friends plus regular returns have been the link home for many years now. It has changed though, be assured of that.
For me it’s not a regional issue. It’s more the disconnect between the ‘every person counts’ attitude this referendum has engendered in the YES camp, in comparison to the old party political negative electioneering and MSM lead tactics of attempted dismotivation (invented word alert!) of the oppositions voters.
My own concern is that not enough energy is being spent countering this suffocating deluge. My choice would be to focus on voter registration drives, aimed at the disenchanted individuals and groups who have long since been alienated by the way status quo politics have been practiced in Scotland.
These folk make up a significant group who are already alienated and unfortunately suffering from this unfair status quo. So, if we can find a way of motivating their participation in the referendum we should be able to tap into a very large YES vote and at the same time, re politicise a large section of our population for the politics of our shiny new Independent Scotland. Win win! (smilesallround)
“Maybe she’s good at learning her lines for each new part she gets to play? Wonder what part she will next play?”
Well, she hasn’t been in the LibDems yet as far as I know.
@Braco
Interesting re regional breakdown. Wouldn’t it be fair to say that the disenfranchised are, in the main, based in the more populated parts of Scotland?
Are you part of the formal YES campaign, if so, do you think the grassrooots approach is working?
I realise, on this, I’m a political pragmatist. Let’s get over the line and then we’ll get to the nuts and bolts of the new Scotland. Cold and rational I suppose.
As a by the way, I reckon a lot of the regulars on this site are widely travelled, not sure what that’s about, interesting though.
Woo-hoo, congrats on WoS’s 1,111th post!
(And I just missed the 50,505th comment.)
Sorry for the slight O/T post
FreddieThreepwood,
Being in the right and fighting like fuck is what I am advocating.
I just don’t want to waste our valuable energies on a fight with our opponents shadow. The BBC and MSM follow a line. That line is political and biased. It depends on lies and obscuring the truth.
As we fight and uncover those political lies and obscured truths the MSM and BBC are exposed as untrustworthy. Working against the currently (somewhat) trusted BBC to expose political lies and obscured truths is a waste of energy and completely counter productive.
Please have more trust in the Scots electorate. They have not let us down and they won’t, as long as we fight like….. well as hard, maybe harder than we have ever before.
Albert Herring,
Do the LibDems still have a touring troup? I thought they were closing down after this last ‘acclaimed’ production finishes it’s run.
Scottish- Skier
@18:24
“I see Lizzie is not Queen of Scots any more, just Queen of England.”
I am behind the curve on this one, could you please expand?
Albalha,
I am currently in Lisboa saving my pennies in order to return around the time of the ‘White paper’. I plan full time door stepping from then on.
Not sure about the YES campaign as I am not really a joiner (WOS excluded) but when I am talking, I am talking about people including family who are now either set on a YES vote or are more than open to it as a realistic option. Not a situation that has ever in my wildest dreams been on the cards.
Independence is being normalised and Tory policies, Labour, UKIP, The Orange Order, etc. etc. is turning the Union into the decidedly and dangerously loony radical choice.
Watching Channel 4 News, turns out ‘our’ Aussie friend, Mr Lynton Crosby, currently spinning for posh Dave and his pals, nearly joined UKIP.
And Alex F’s retirement, as it were, from Man U knocked Liz’s speech, written by Dave and his pals, off the top spot.
Cyborg-nat
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22448561
BBC Brian has tried to excuse it as ‘just reading out proposed legislation’ but even that doesn’t wash as I’m not aware of Westminster passing legislation in support of campaigning to keep Scotland in the union. It’s just a party political stance.
Queen happily read it out. Ergo, she’s taken the side of the UK government over the Scottish government. Thus the side of the people of the rUK over the people of Scotland. That’s hardly impartial/apolitical.
Unless that’s corrected quickly, I think we can conclude no more Lizzie Queen of Scots. She could hardly be queen post independence if she was openly against independence.
@Bill McLean (5.45)
What an uplifting, encouraging message!
It might be a one off but I don’t think so. From what I’ve heard, YES events are well-attended by genuine people. And YES don’t have to lie about attendance figures…
In the aftermath of Ian Smart’s ill-advised tweets, how about new YES groups, such as Pakistanis for Independence and Polish for Independence. It should matter especially for the Polish because the way the UK is now going, Scottish independence is their best bet of remaining EU citizens in a EU country.
Lumilumi
Aye, Farage and Dave have handed up to 2% of the voting electorate in Scotland on a plate to YesScotland.
If they don’t vote or vote no, could mean them finding themselves no longer legally in the UK.
European businesses operating in Scotland will be turning pro-Yes too.
Queen happily read it out. Ergo, she’s taken the side of the UK government over the Scottish government. Thus the side of the people of the rUK over the people of Scotland
The Queen’s Speech sets out the government’s agenda for the coming session of parliament and is not restricted to proposed legislation. The Queen reads out what the government have said they plan to do, which in this instance includes campaigning to keep Scotland in the UK. She doesn’t give her support to anything in the speech, she just reads it.
Braco
There’s always the Greens – I don’t think she’s been in there either.
Thanks S-S.
I saw something similar on the Guardian after I asked. I agree with your take on it.
Saves us having to wait for her to pop in her clogs before having a referendum on becoming a republic, although tactically it might be better to wait .
The Queen reads out what the government have said they plan to do, which in this instance includes campaigning to keep Scotland in the UK.
Are there previous speeches where party political campaigning is talked about rather than just actual proposed legislation?
The campaigning is itself in breach of international law. UK government should not interfere and should be entirely impartial. It’s up to Scots unionists alone to make the case for the union. Self determination.
http://www.hrweb.org/legal/cpr.html
The States Parties to the present Covenant [UK], including those having responsibility for the administration of Non-Self-Governing [Scotland] and Trust Territories, shall promote the realization of the right of self-determination, and shall respect that right, in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.
Albert,
I think it would all depend on the role da’ling. She is so obviously an artist, after all.
Scottish Skier,
you’re no that innocent! Next you’ll be wishing on the international fairness fairy, Oh Dear!
JB: The Queen reads out what the government have said they plan to do, which in this instance includes campaigning to keep Scotland in the UK.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22452670
Seems you and Brian are in agreement.
😉
I was generally agnostic on the subject; Norway has a monarch. So what – an old tradition. Now she can sod off.
@ Braco. Ha ha. Just pointing it out…
Are there previous speeches where party political campaigning is talked about rather than just actual proposed legislation?
Yes. There are always general policy positions set out in the speech. There were other, similar, positions set out in this speech: “My government is committed to a fairer society where aspiration and responsibility are rewarded”; “My government will continue to reduce crime and protect national security”; “My ministers will continue to work in cooperation with the devolved adminstrations”; “My government will work to prevent conflict and reduce terrorism. It will support countries in transition in the Middle East and North Africa, and the opening of a peace process in Afghanistan”; “My government will ensure the security, good governance and development of the Overseas Territories, including by protecting the Falkland Islanders’ and Gibraltarians’ right to determine their political futures”; “In assuming the presidency of the G8, my government will promote economic growth, support free trade, tackle tax evasion, encourage greater transparency and accountability while continuing to make progress in tackling climate change.”
The campaigning is itself in breach of international law.
No it isn’t. Expressing an opinion is not an interference in self-determination.
Stewart Whyte @Stewart_Whyte (history teacher & Tory activist)
@ianssmart just saw last night’s @ScotlandTonight well done. You shouldn’t have given them the opening but, it was clearly an attempt ….
https://twitter.com/Stewart_Whyte/status/332205930177511425
@ianssmart to discredit you and intimidate you into silence. Chin up!
https://twitter.com/Stewart_Whyte/status/332206147153055744
Are there any Nationalists who are not anti-English racists? #500questions
https://twitter.com/Stewart_Whyte/status/331520525451018241
Sounds like the sort of guy who keeps a strap handy for special occasions.
On the perceived threat of the SNP being seen as cast in the same mould as UKIP and the BNP, I would point out that both UKIP and the BNP are politically to the right of Atilla the Hun (they would regard Atilla as a liberal in matters of race and immigration), and both are anti-devolution, never mind Scottish Independence. The Tories, and the Labour Party of the last 17 years or so (and the Orange Order for that matter) are far closer in political terms to UKIP and the BNP than the SNP ever have been.
Getting way ahead of myself here, but I hope the SNP are aware that settling on a “fair division of assets and liabilities” after independence with a Tory/UKIP negotiating team (post-2015) is not going to be easy.
Not because the Tory/UKIP team would be cleverer (hah) or more experienced (well, maybe the Tories), but because we will not be able to trust such a two-headed to deal fairly or equitably on any matter.
But that’s not really worth worrying about now, so I’ll shut up. We don’t even know the outcome of 2014 yet, nevermind 2015.
Also, it’s better to negotiate terms for independence with a two-headed dog (however difficult that might become) than to lie supine in it’s dinner bowl.
Expressing an opinion is not an interference in self-determination.
A personal opinion is not. A political party opinion is ok too. A governmental opinion is a different matter and care must be taken (e.g. German government telling the UK one what’s best on an EU in/out) to not cause friction/an international incident.
Where the government is controlling the nation seeking independence it should not be involved in campaigning at all. That’s not self determination, that’s interference.
It’s tantamount to Britain running a big political campaign in Greece for an EU exit or invading Iraq illegally to change it’s government.
You have noticed the arguments about donations from outside Scotland? The same applies for campaigning by groups outside Scotland, particularly if they are the ones in control of Scotland. Scottish Labour fine. Scottish Tories fine. UK Tories – erm no.
Westminster should just provide impartial facts (we pay taxes for that) and facilitate the referendum (which it did as it had no choice at all, hence the Edinburgh Agreement). Of course we can’t expect it to comply fully in this, the UK hardly being a nice democratic country respectful of international law.
Also note the UK government is proposing to use Scots taxes to campaign against what many Scots want. If they are not going to use taxes, it should not be in the speech as it’s party political.
A governmental opinion is a different matter and care must be taken (e.g. German government telling the UK one what’s best on an EU in/out) to not cause friction/an international incident
‘Friction’, fortunately, is not a breach of international law.
Where the government is controlling the nation seeking independence it should not be involved in campaigning at all. That’s not self determination, that’s interference.
We still get to determine for ourselves how we vote. That’s what self-determination is. If they start interfering in the vote, get back to me.
If they are not going to use taxes, it should not be in the speech as it’s party political.
The whole speech is party political. And they’re going to use UK taxes, because they’re the UK government and that’s what they’re elected to do. Governments have always spent taxes on things some taxpayers think they shouldn’t. Governments have always promoted views and positions that some of the electorate disagree with. The UK government will do what the UK government will do, but as long as they don’t interfere in the process, they won’t be breaking any laws.
Recalling Silver Jubilee time “…I cannot forget that I was crowned Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain”.
The SNP are often accused of being far-left socialist Republicans by the right in Britain, while elements of Labour and the media attempt to insinuate that they are actually right-wing and corporate-friendly, authoritarian, or else outright fascist and racist.
They can’t be both though. Just like they can’t be both anti-Protestant and anti-Catholic, despite what Labour canvassers might like to imply on the doorstep.
They are centrist, very slightly left, and inclusive of all races and religions. It’s obvious to anyone who cares to look.
So it seems like their opponents have, as usual, concocted a surfeit of scare stories, each tailored to a different voting bloc – and are blind to the fact that their stories are blatantly contradictory and impossible. They are treating the voters like mugs (and seem oblivious to the fact that voters actually talk to each other).
It’s sort of like with the whole EU thing – we are warned that we would have to pay more for our membership, and would be run from Brussels (aaaiiieeeee!), by the very same folk who tell us that we won’t even be members.
After a while it just becomes comical, so long as you are aware of it. I only hope a large enough part of the public is.
Billy – interesting point. To add to it, when the SNP start to have those post- Yes vote negotiations with Westminster, I would presume we would have the support of all Labour,Tory and Lib Dem MP’s who represent Scottish constituencies.
With independence guaranteed, what position would Mundell, Moore, Alexander and the likes of Curran, Alexander, Darling , Sarwar etc take ?
Surely they would have to turn against their London counterparts and parties to support the Scottish constituents they represent. Maybe Alex Salmond should ask the likes of Mundell, Alexander and Moore in to his negotiation team just to see them go head to head with the likes of Cable, Osbourne and co.
That would be a sight worth seeing.
Dan Snow @thehistoryguy
Sir Alex leaving Man U is like Scotland leaving the UK, an irreplaceable loss.
https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/332209771979628544
#BBC #bettertogether
Let’s not play dirty and add/imply hashtags that weren’t there.
tartanfever,
I like a laugh as much as the next man,but are you seriously suggesting Salmond asks Mundell to negotiate on behalf of Scotland? I wouldn’t trust him to negotiate for an ice cream.
Alex Salmond should ask the likes of Mundell, Alexander and Moore in to his negotiation team
That’s a sound idea and not just for the entertainment value. It would promote the idea that independence is inclusive and that an independent Scotland is not necessarily an SNP Scotland. It might be wiser to ask MSPs of other parties rather than MPs who are representatives of the government with which he’s negotiating, but the principle is good.
Heh, I hope you’re right tartanfever, but I’m not too sure I’d want Alexander, Mundell, Sarwar or Curran on my side under any circumstances. I certainly wouldn’t want them arguing on behalf of my nation. Moore at least has a brain (a big one, by the look of him) and Darling has nice eyebrows. The rest of them I could never trust. I don’t even trust Danny Alexander when I agree with him!
It’s a funny image though – Margaret Curran and Anas Sarwar negotiating the terms of Scotland’s “separation”, with Nigel Farage and Mad Lord Monckton on the other side of the table.
G Campbell
Isn’t sweet seeing a Tory give a Labour guy a wee cuddle after he has been harshed by those nasty cybergnats. Brings a lump to your throat so it does*.
*Dry boak that is.
Tartanfever et al – I wouldn’t want any of those swivel eyed unionist balloons near the table. Do you think you could trust any of them to act in the interests of Scotland. They’ve never before shown any inclination to do so and to think otherwise is optimistic at best and delusional at worst.
Jiggs,
‘My Government shall insure that the policies and intentions of my Scottish Government are overcome and the views of my people are once again reconciled behind those of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland’
How about that?
The way the Unionist parties are coalescing but refusing to give up their old divide and rule clothes is indeed becoming farcical. Labour have been struggling with this for years but the referendum has seriously accelerated their plight.
The Orange Order and the Green Brigade(s) for UK!
It’s Priceless! (and so, so obvious)
Was going to post this on the Ian Smart thread but the thread’s closed. Apologies, therefore, for going off-topic here.
Ian Smart has tweeted that he is off on his hols to Verona in a couple of days. Verona has strong links to the Northern League, Italy’s BNP. Racist attacks are on the increase there and they recently destroyed the city’s mosque. They advocate, among other things, separate buses for immigrants. Sounds not unlike Ian’s apocalyptic vision of an independent Scotland. Nice place for a holiday, though, it seems.
mealer/billy – sorry fella’s, I’m only kidding.
But wouldn’t it be great, just for a laugh, to have them walk in as part of the negotiation team on the side of Scotland just to see the Westminster faces reactions ? After that they can leave, or walk round the other side of the table.
Seriously though, there are going to be a lot of Scottish politicians both in Westminster and Holyrood who are going to have a major overnight rethink next September and if they want any kind of political career in Scotland they’re going to have to support the SNP negotiations – because it’s not really about party politics, it’s the starting point for our entire nation.
If during those negotiations they continue to talk Scotland down as they have been doing so for years, i think they’ll find themselves in a very difficult position with their constituents.
The UK government will do what the UK government will do, but as long as they don’t interfere in the process, they won’t be breaking any laws.
Which, grant them, they have not being doing specifically as they are powerless to do so.
I trust they will soon ask the EU to confirm Scotland’s position post independence. Not much to ask and I wrote that on a post-it for George when he went through my pockets last month.
I trust they will do the same for NATO. Again, they can use Scots taxes.
I trust they will also hand control of state broadcasting to the Scottish Parliament over the UK parliament asap, just to ensure they are not unduly influencing what is happening here.
I trust they will not use Scottish taxes to produce any material against Scottish independence, only unbiased factual information.
The matter is not party political after all.
If they do not, they are acting to influence from outside Scotland the process of self-determination. Highly questionable under international conventions.
The people of Scotland have expressed the democratic desire to hold a referendum on independence from the UK. The UK may state it’s opinion that it does not wish Scotland to leave and offer it’s case why. However, it should not block requests from the people of Scotland for the information required to make a decision and campaign actively for one side whilst simultaneously taking Scots taxes to fund this without knowing what Scotland’s decision is (as we’ll only find out in 2014). That’s interfering.
————–
Ok enough of this.
Fun news is that everywhere I travel my international colleagues/clients are asking about independence. France, Holland, Norway, Saudi Arabia, the US, Ireland, Italy as recent examples…. First thing I was asked about today by a Dutch colleague here as an external examiner for one of my PhD students over lunch….
They all think Scotland should go for it. Scotland is very much on the map now and very popular. Britain, well, less so shall we say.
It is a good idea to keep friends close and enemies even closer. They probably would still be in politics in an independent Scotland..but maybe not negotiating that independence. Moore might come around to the idea of a Yes vote but Curran and Mundel? I can’t see it. There are independence minded Tories and Labour politicians that would be much better placed to argue Scotland case in negotiations.
‘My Government shall insure that the policies and intentions of my Scottish Government are overcome and the views of my people are once again reconciled behind those of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland’ How about that?
How about it? If that’s what her government plan to do, then that’s what she would tell us they plan to do. That’s her job: reading out what the government have said they plan to do.
“How about it? If that’s what her government plan to do, then that’s what she would tell us they plan to do. That’s her job: reading out what the government have said they plan to do.”
Mm. The Queen reads whatever words are put in her mouth. It’s a bit daft to imply her personal approval, because she does it for every government and I doubt she changes her views every five years.
Moore might come around to the idea of a Yes vote but Curran and Mundel? I can’t see it
I think they’d pretty soon come round to the idea that they don’t have jobs in politics any more unless they get on board an independent Scottish parliament. They’ll have no problem with the idea that the voters made a mistake and will now need their political skills and experience to save Scotland from itself.
YesYesYes,
That really explains a lot.
When I was in Bavaria last month my hostess remarked that in the 19th century there were a lot of smaller states in Europe, but then they got together and it seemed to work. She was only passing a remark, not arguing with us. (She had two rabid nats for the weekend, though she probably thought she only had two singers.)
I didn’t reply, but I was thinking about it. Things were fairly fluid in the middle of Europe for quite a while, so I wonder how deep-rooted national identifications really were. But mainly I don’t think one of the German Lander dominates the others to the detriment and invisibility of the others.
It would be an interesting topic for discussion, but I don’t really know a great deal about it.
Verona? Nice place for a holiday though. I don’t usually inquire about the local politics when I choose my holiday destination, so it could be he just likes opera and the view of the alps.
@ SS
it’s in westminster’s interest to know the position of both Scotland and rUK vis a vis the EU. I’m sure that I read a report claiming one of the EU’s high hied yins saying that rUK’s position wasn’t guaranteed post a’Yes vote.
Could save them the cost of a referendum. 🙂
@scottish skier:
You say;
The people of Scotland have expressed the democratic desire to hold a referendum on independence from the UK. The UK may state it’s opinion that it does not wish Scotland to leave and offer it’s case why. However, it should not block requests from the people of Scotland for the information required to make a decision and campaign actively for one side whilst simultaneously taking Scots taxes to fund this without knowing what Scotland’s decision is (as we’ll only find out in 2014). That’s interfering.
While I agree with you in principle, in practice it is the UK govt’s expressed policy to retain Scotland in the Union. As with any other policy they will execute it with whatever powers they can muster. Naturally, these include refusing to enter into discussions, etc. etc. Never forget Moore’s chilling words ‘Scotland cannot expect a free pass’ That applies both before the referendum, and after it.
It’s a waste of good spittle to rail against this. The ‘fairness’ principle ran out with the Edinburgh agreement. The only way we win is by creating mass and momentum.
‘My government shall fight against the labour party using your taxes for the next year. They shall also bargain, again using your taxes, with UKIP to ensure an extreme right majority for the next general election.”
=
“My government will make the case for Scotland to remain part of the UK.”
This is not a party political issue. Should not have been in Lizzie’s speech.
@kininvie
Oh I agree. Good to highlight here and there again sometimes and I feel like waffling.
@Morag,
“Verona? Nice place for a holiday though. I don’t usually inquire about the local politics when I choose my holiday destination, so it could be he just likes opera and the view of the alps”.
I don’t suppose you’ve ever argued that increasing racial tension is a pretext for voting No in a referendum either. But thanks for the insight about Verona. You learn something every day on this site.
‘If during those negotiations they continue to talk Scotland down as they have been doing so for years, i think they’ll find themselves in a very difficult position with their constituents.’ No! No! No!The point is they don’t get near the fecking table in the first place. If they want to be involved in scottish politics they should stand for election for a scottish parliament. Bunch of fecking tossers the lot of them. As a matter of course no westminster MPs who are members of unionist parties or not members of scottish parties should be involved in the process. I’d prefer it left to the SG. Honestly TF are you trying to give me a turn here? 🙂
Murphy, Curran, Davidson, Sarwar, Alexander etc will throw the kitchen sink at securing a no vote next year and will go to extreme lengths if required.
A Yes vote will finish their political careers off and they all know it.
If we convince their constituents that their loyalty lies with the Westminster gravy train and not them then we win the referndum.
SIMPLES!!
@sneddon
At 9;10pm.
I agree and let us hope that we never see any of them taking a seat in Holyrood.
Let’s get the Yes vote in first before we worry about who we want on the negotiating team.
Call-me-Dave wants doctors to check the immigration status of their patients before they treat them, to prevent anyone getting free treatment they’re not entitled to.
Excuse me I feel sick now.
Let me try that again:
I don’t suppose you’ve ever argued that averting the risk of increasing racial tension is a pretext for voting No in the independence referendum either.
Oh, and I know what a fruit loop conspiracy theorist is now.
@Rev. Stuart.
“Mm. The Queen reads whatever words are put in her mouth”
***********************
One shouldn’t presume that she with the glittering crown has no say on the contents of that speech. I’m not arguing that she controls all of it mind, but rather that there are specific elements where she has the perogative. You only have to recall the recent Guardians expose on a little known undemocratic process whereby the approval of Queen and Prince Charles is sought on range of bills before they are brought to parliament!
Whitehall has refused to publish the protocol manual which guides this undemocratic process. Yet another reason for YES!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jan/14/secret-papers-royals-veto-bills
@tartanfever
I’ve always wondered what answer the likes of Darling, Lamont, Rennie, Davidson I and Davidson R would give to one simple question:
“What will you do if Scotland says Yes?”
Apologies for being on topic.
“I am now tired of arguments about what Craig Murray did or didn’t say or prove. Any useful debate was over about 100 posts ago and all we’re getting now is people repeating themselves. Take it to Quarantine or I’m locking the thread.”
Spot on. Nothing matters a bit.
Good article on Labour using race as a tactic to hurt the YES vote over on the Huffington Post From http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk – , also link to Peter Hain claiming that Labour have a lot more to do to win a majority in 2015.
Morag says:
8 May, 2013 at 10:11 pm
Call-me-Dave wants doctors to check the immigration status of their patients before they treat them, to prevent anyone getting free treatment they’re not entitled to.
Excuse me I feel sick now.
So someone who is carrying a disease such as TB resistant to antibiotics will be asked to stump up before being put into isolation to protect the wider public seems a well thought out policy, not.
@Tamson “What will you do if Scotland says Yes?” Answer: “Find the nearest loo!”
I really am at the point and forgive me Rev where Smart, Joke, Kaye with an E and her employers etc can kiss my erse! A couple of work colleagues who are not really political are sick of the scare stories and one has said he and his wife will be voting yes. The no camp are the ultimate in negativity and have no place in an independent Scotland.
I think the scare stories are having an effect though. I get depressed about it sometimes.
@Tamson
With an eye on Holyrood 2016 whatever they do it sure as hell won’t be pretty. Thinking about it you could probably sell tickets.
Morag says:
8 May, 2013 at 10:35 pm
I think the scare stories are having an effect though.
Oh yes, but not as intended.
Might be depressing, but does it make you want to vote No?
More importantly, will it make you want to vote No nearly a year and a half away, when that time comes of course?
There is nothing that would make me want to vote no, apart from a genuine belief that I would be destitute in an independent Scotland. That seems to be the message they’re trying to get across.
@S_S – My impression is that a lot of folk I talk to are getting scunnered with the constant negativity. I have a feeling that an ‘underdog’ effect is being created and that some people are now thinking of voting YES simply because they feel Scotland is being treated like some kind of poor cousin. In other words its raising hackles. Hardly scientific I know, but an interesting phenomenon none the less. (Sorry about the dreadful pun!)
Might be depressing, but does it make you want to vote No?
I’m not sure we’re the intended audience for the message, or that the message is ‘Vote No’. The scare stories are aimed at the unconvinced and ‘no vote’ from them is as much an aim as a ‘No’ vote.
@Jiggsbro
@S-S
Are there any known no votes and unknown no votes and if so are there any no unknown votes or no known votes?
Well it is obvious from the Queens Speech that UKIP and BNP have more influence over London Govt policy and legislation than any of the feeble Labour MPs and treacherous Lib Dooms that were sent to Westminster after the last Brit GE.
Anybody listening to Newsnicht? I’m black affronted that wee squit Mundell is my MP.
Dave has an election to fight in 2015 so has to start positioning himself now. ScotLab will probably implode as Johann and Ruthie try to outflank each other on the right. As Wasteminster moves to the right it can only be good for us. The lunatic English NHS reforms will probably have started to unravel and the austerity so loved by BT will probably have been shown to be a failure by Sep 14.
The trouble for BT with starting the relentless scare stories now is that folk will tire of the crying wolf message long before Sep 14. Just a few wee cheery thoughts.
@Morag
I know what you mean. I was in your hometown today. Not looking so good these day’s lots of commercial buildings for sale.
To get to the point I know that we get reassurances from several commentators on Wings and I am grateful for that but it is the constant drone of the usual suspects that eventually penetrates from time to time. I envy some Wings readers they seem to be making good progress. (I suspect many are from rural areas). However back here in West Central it is business as usual. Driving around today and looking at the state of the place and the circumstances of the people I cant help feeling that there is so much to get through to obtain a Yes vote. And a lot to do afterwards as well.
@Morag -Nae luck Morag. I thought he was going to have a heart attack or a stroke. I think he should resign for his own good, he’s obviously “not fit for purpose” to quote one of his unionist buddies.
Are there any known no votes and unknown no votes and if so are there any no unknown votes or no known votes?
Don’t know.
@The Man in the Jar: Checkout Newsnet a wee story to cheer you up.
@Morag
I missed it not had the telly on for a while I got sick of it. Mundell really is a weasel of a man. I always picture him in wee “lawyers” glasses and fingerless gloves overseeing the ledgers at the workhouse.
RE Mundell – I would be disappointed if he was a local councillor. It defies belief that he is Scotland’s only Tory MP.
Newsnight Scotland reduced to eleven minutes, did BBC Scotland agree to this? Or did they get told by London that some footie person retiring was more important today? Not impressed.
Another interesting question (but this time for Scottish Labour) would be: is there anything that a Westminster Tory government could do to Scotland that would induce you to support independence?
We know what we can rule out here. Among other things, the introduction of the poll tax in Scotland (that didn’t do it for them), mass unemployment in the 1980s (ditto), widespread homelessness in the 1980s (ditto), deindustrialisation (ditto), relentless privatisation (ditto), creating the most repressive labour legislation in the developed world (ditto), increasing inequality (ditto), widespread negative equity in the 1990s (ditto). And, more contemporaneously, the bedroom tax (ditto), regressive and punitive welfare reforms on the most vulnerable members of our society (ditto), and economic policies that are strongly opposed by the vast majority of Scottish voters (ditto).
“Better 100 years of the Tories than the turn on the Poles and the P***s that would follow independence failing to deliver”?
Ian Smart’s words were deeply offensive to Scots, but no less so than his actions and those of his Scottish Labour colleagues have been throughout the last thirty-four years.
The thing that gets me about Paddington is that this is one of the very very few Westminster seats where the Tories are even in with a shout. This is the party of Hector Munro and Malcolm Rifkind and Ian Lang and Teddy Taylor and even John Buchan. Big beasts. Big hitters.
Is this the best they can do? Can they really, honestly find nothing better to put on the hustings for the party? And let me tell you, I was at these hustings and it was frankly dire. (If I’d been completely impartial and the candidates weren’t identified as to party I’d have voted for Catriona Bhatia – nee Steel – because she was the only one with any nous on the stump at all, but I know too much about the local council to go there quite honestly.)
Paddington isn’t fit for purpose as Labour numpty cannon-fodder for Holyrood. The fact that the Tories can’t find anything better to take what is close to a free pass to the gravy train, surely tells us something. If we knew what it was.
@Adrian B – “Newsnight Scotland reduced to eleven minutes, did BBC Scotland agree to this? Or did they get told by London that some footie person retiring was more important today? Not impressed.” Total agreement – Newsnight SCOTLAND – don’t think so.
@ Yes Yes Yes,
See this 100 years of Tory rule from Westminster – do you think that would mean 100 years of labour in opposition at Westminster.
Given said 100 years of Tory rule in Wesminster – Do you really think that Scotland would vote for labour to keep the Tories out? No neither do I – perhaps we should be ramming this message home to a few Labour people.
@Bill C
If it is the oil story I have been reading similar for the last forty years. Moan Moan Moan! 🙁
The Man in the Jar,
Did you hear about the man who had a trumpet growing in his back garden?
@Adrian B,
I agree.
Do you get the feeling that, not for the first time, Ian Smart hasn’t thought this through (as with his persistent referendum denial last year)?
He had to rootitoot!
(veryweeksmily)
No pray tell?
Smart’s Alternative to Independence: “Better 100 years of Tory Rule”
I was thinking that we might want to take (not)Smart’s wish into a parody, in the same way as we did with the 500 questions. I mean, imagine what type of country we would be living in if Smart’s wished for alternative were to come true.
Example: i) The NHS in Scotland is run for profit in 2020 by Richard Branson’s Virgin(plc) #100ToryYears
********* Footnote ***************
The NHS emergency care in England is already in crisis; see Telegraph article of today (08/05/2013)
There’s no doubt that laughing at them is hellish effective, if it’s something that can be pulled off. The 500 questions have been eviscerated. If there’s any way to repeat that performance on future BT initiatives, we need to go for it.
The Man in the Jar,
I never could time a joke! (see post before your own)
Sometimes this incessant negativity gets too much for me too. I think that’s the price of keeping your eyes open between election campaigns every 4 or 5 years. It’s just not natural and designed to alienate all but the hard core political nut (and professional) from whichever party.
I just keep reminding myself how important this really is and that finally it’s not about the political parties this time!
Any way min, take care and night night
@Braco
This one cheered me up.
Q. Why are Neds like slinkies?
A. They have no real use but it is great to watch one fall down a flight of stairs 🙂
The Man in the Jar,
that was worse than mine. You have your revenge!
night.
@Braco
I thought that it was quite good! If by any chance you are having feeling of sympathy for the Burberry apes it high time you came home for a wee refresher. 😉
Cheery!
Q. How do you get ten Neds into a phone box?
A. Paint three stripes on it!
Sorry couldnae resist.
We should at every opportunity call the NHS (whether in Scotland or England) the Nationalist Health Service. They will hate it, however they do call the SNP Nationalists, alway hinting at other non existent undertones. Time to fight back using a bit of their own language. Mocking time!
@ Yes Yes Yes,
Ian Smart is working for us – he just thinks he is working for a no vote. 100 years of Tory Westminster rule. Labour going to be in opposition for the rest of time.
@ AmadeusMinkowski,
The Nationalist Health Service Ltd (England) has a head start, The he House of Lords voted through the last bits to fast track it’s privatisation a week or two ago. Milliband must be very proud.
Hey folks, posting here because I had a serious computer failure over Easter weekend, and by the time I got back online the thread I’d posted into had ballooned to enormous size and then been locked. I’m still reading through it carefully, but I wanted to respond whilst I can, and in case something fails again in the meantime.
That England is moving Right is unfortunately true. And it’s not unique, either historically or culturally to the British experience. Let me give another personal perspective; I mentioned I live in Bristol now, but I was born in Nottinghamshire, and came of age during Thatcher. My grandfather was a coal miner, and Nottingham was one of the few parts of the country that sided with the Government against Scargill… but to no avail. I can remember there being 6 pit heads within 30 minutes walk from my home village, and then there being just one. As teenagers we used to break into the abandoned NCB offices over the closest, and scare each other witless with tails of ghost miners hiding in the echoing kitchens… There really wasn’t much else to do as children, except go into the nearby woodland and catch people shagging for your own amusement. But there was also massive unemployment for the adults, and with it came seething anger, and dysfunctional, drunken families. If you’ve read DH Lawrence, you know the area, and that the mining life was hard anyway. And suddenly you’d taken the livelihoods away…and what was left, was the hate and fear. Of not going to certain friends houses after a certain time because the drunken, unemployed step father would be there. Of not going to certain estates at all if you could avoid it…
But what I remember most was the appearance of the National Front in the area. Now this was a time when there was literally ONE Pakistani family in my entire secondary school. Who, as the old cliche goes, was of course one of my best friends, natch… something I look back on with a wry smile. And the anger wasn’t so much about “they turk our jerbs”, as there weren’t any jobs for anyone, and no immigrants in the woodlands of Nottingham to take them even if there were; but just a general fear of the alien, the different, the hard to understand. Huge NF logos scrawled on abandoned bridges and railroads, fighting on “your” behalf an enemy that didn’t exist, whilst British people were being beaten at Orgreaves by British Police; whilst it wasn’t the black man you had to watch out for, but the drunken bored white kids with flick knives sitting on Ford Escorts outside closed down Yoof Centres. Looking back, it was utterly unreal. But… the fear, the fear WAS genuinely there. And what made you a target was whether you were seen to not be suffering quite enough, whether you were the just-that-little-bit-too-tall-corn; the only time I’ve been mugged wasn’t an immigrant in a city centre, but having a blade held to my throat was from local kids who resented the fact that I’d got a university place and I was going to escape it all.
That’s in part why I commentated about it in the previous thread; people aren’t rational when they are scared and broken. And now as I’m older, and vulnerable again myself, I can feel it choking the national debate again today, and I understand the wider evil of it… I mentioned that I was uncomfortable with Nationalism in general, and here’s my answer to the questions in that thread as to why. Because even where it’s phrased in harmless cultural terms, when people start feeling the need to barricade themselves from fear, the debate spirals out of control and simple concepts become signifiers of battle lines drawn or lines you better not cross. My own family background is Welsh, Grandfather followed the work from Rhyll to Nottingham, where he died of silicosis in the lungs. In good times, it means nothing… but in the bad, he was suddenly a Welsh scab. He never talked about it much, but I discovered later what the adults had been arguing about, when I read more around the politics, and I took the time to understood what he’d been facing…
And what a lot of the debate is being driven by, south of the border, is that same fear and hate once more; not that Scotland is too wee, too poor, too cringish… but really, that they’ll do better than us. “And who do they think they ARE, to escape when we can’t? Are you saying we’re not worth it? Bastards.” I’m not scared of what happens to Scotland if it leaves the UK; I rather suspect they’ll prove rather better off if they do. Rather, I’m scared of what kind of attitudes will be left behind. I fear Weimar England. And I remember how Nottingham City Council’s walls had a plaque commemorating the International Brigades from the area who’d gone to fight in the Spanish Civil War… and I don’t just feel afraid again, I now feel ashamed because I see how far we’re fallen.
What does that mean for you, here on an Indy-positive Scottish blog? Not much perhaps for your daily lives, and your own struggles. But I can tell you this; the push rightwards across the UK isn’t an accident. It has it’s own, self supporting evil logic behind it. The better you do, the more people who aren’t you and aren’t doing well are going to loathe and resent it. And politicians can use that hatred and fear to garner support for themselves… see today’s Queens Speech for instance, and it’s attack on immigrants. The kind of person who is stupid, and self defeating will cheer it yes. And it works, because nature is always bountiful in idiots, especially in times of economic hardship. RevStu mentioned in the thread below he’s not far from Bristol; I remember with amusement his article on what a fucking dump it is. Well, it’s even worse now, the main shopping centre is now half empty as even the pound stores can’t turn over enough custom… the danger is that any argument that goes along the lines of “Why aren’t the Scots getting fucked over too?” is going to feed, rather than draw the sting of the hatred. To be frank, the reason I suspect there isn’t much anti-Scottish hatred in the English in general, at the moment, is because the Tory Government is fucking Scotland over quite obviously.
There’s another thread about lifeboats and the dilemma (“Great cars them… urk!” – Inappropriately Light Plagiarised Comment Ed) of selective rescues, which is a good jumping off point; if you don’t resent the people in the lifeboats, even if you’re dying in the icy water, you’re unlikely to want to drill a hole in the side of it and sink them out of spite. Some of the comments I’ve read so far in the closed thread helped reassure me that much of the debate to the North understands how to address the fears of people like me about Independence and what it would mean; You don’t have to take my thoughts seriously, and why should you of course? But I’d say it’s rather helpful to recognise when to be less Scottish, and more universal; Not to resist independence, but simply to say “because we believe all people have at least the right to avoid being drowned, and the current government just isn’t going to take it’s foot off people’s heads, we’re getting in a different boat… but if you can get in too, great!” To break the binary, Us and Them, the zero sum mentality when ever it’s used… because as I hope I’ve made clear, it’s viciously effective to turn pride in oneself into apparent criticism of the Other… and make people suspect they’re the Other for you. It’s trite to say, but Independence really would sound so much less concerning if it comes with a Group Hug… Now to try and finish reading all your comments, and hope I’ve fixed the problems so I can respond here again tomorrow.
I certainly think it’s important to refer to Unionists who are active online consistently as Cyberbrits as a) it’ll annoy them, and b) it should provide a useful analog to Cybernats, which I think we need. That way when the inevitable whining starts about Cybernats, the response can be ‘yeah, but have you heard what the Cyberbrits are saying? It’s so much worse…”
Ffoulkes can be King of the Cyberbrits for a start – why be a lord when you can be a king?
There’s also a nice little subtext to it, suggesting the argument is between Scots and Brits. How many Scots could tolerate being called Brits over and over, without losing it? After all – this is not a fight between Scotland and England, but between Scotland and Britain. Wouldn’t it be great to make it a fight with Scotland, Wales and England against Britain? if we can make ‘Brit’ synonymous with a self-interested, duplicitous political class, rather than a people, we can start to move in that direction, i reckon.
Sorry to say this Nairn, but I don’t think this is a fight between Scotland and Britain at all. Britain existed long before the UK, and will still exist after it’s gone. I know the kind of toxic Britishness you’re talking about though.
For me this is a fight between decent people who want a better future for themselves (wherever they may live in the British isles, but particularly Scotland in terms of the referendum) and a corrupt and anachronistic political power structure called the United Kingdom (the state, with all it’s vested interests), which as Titler eloquently points out has never treated it’s people very well, has never provided them with very much, and has never felt the need to care about how they felt. That’s not very catchy though.
I mean, think about it – we live in a state that once controlled a third of the globe, and had almost exclusive access to the labour force and natural resources of many, many nations (and usually robbed them blind of both), yet with all this imperial power, all this wealth, all this global influence, the UK has given the majority of it’s modern citizens a standard of living roughly equivalent to that of the Czech Republic. And worse still, these are the good times! (historically speaking)
I know it’s not Titler’s intention, but I think he makes quite a compelling argument against the continuation of the United Kingdom. It really is a terrible place.
I also think he’s right that England will react furiously if we vote Yes, at least for a while, as much from disbelief as genuine anger, because they have been lied to for so long about Scotland’s fiscal position within the Union (as have we all). If UKIP are anywhere near the seat of government at the time, they will do their utmost to encourage and capitalise on that rage. Any economic problem happening in England after “separation” (and there’ll still be plenty of those economic problems, like there have always been, but especially if a Tory/UKIP coalition are in charge) will be enthusiastically blamed on the cruel abandonment and treachery of us Scots. We should be prepared to weather that storm. It’ll pass eventually. But it’ll be rough.
I thought Titler made some other good points as well, but mostly I just enjoyed his post for it’s honesty and story-telling. Folk shagging up the woods, lol.
@Billy Bigbaws
Aye, s’about right. 🙂
@Titler
A good post, which brought back more than a few memories. I was brought up in an area which relied heavily on coal mining and steel, saw the same dole queues grow by the day and a similar resentment and desperation build. I’m with Billy on what’s likely to happen in event of a yes vote, we’re seeing a good deal of it online even as we speak. But we’re in the invidious position of being doomed to ridicule and resentment whether we do or not.
As the Rev pointed out in his post to you yesterday though, we really would be barking mad to pass over that fully equipped and capable lifeboat when the ship is rapidly sinking. I’m also of the belief that through this painful process for both electorates, there is a chance for positive change on both sides of the border. This remaking of the union partnership is a necessary undertaking and a chance to overhaul the democratic processes of the British Isles. The hard part as you have pointed out is what fills the gap in a power vacuum? Traditionally that’s when the right wing loons come out of wherever they’ve been hiding and start to make real headway. Well, they’ve jumped the gun this time. They’re already out there and making a better than minimal progress. That’s without any help from Scotland’s referendum.
This rise and rise of the right is poisonous to Scotland in or out of union. Within it we’re powerless to prevent anything due to simple arithmetic, FPTP voting and a compliant surfeit of pro Westminster parties. Out of it, we’ll still feel a backlash of resentment, but we’ll have the ability to ride it through to a settlement whilst setting about the task of overhauling our own governance and rebuilding hopefully some of what has been lost and maybe, just maybe something better.
It really is that simple. It really is a case of YES or NO.
Couple of nice pieces in the herald this morn. One on the spat between the Smart bros and the racist tweet, one on the Scots and their pound which also keeps the pot boiling mentioning Vitol…again!, and a herald editorial having a go at the Queens speech being irrelevant north of the border.
REV, Im a bit new to this game but Im wondering now that your site is generating more and more comments, is there any chance of having one of those buttons you can click that takes you quickly to the top or bottom, just like I have seen on other sites, or am I missing a trick and just being too lazy to scroll up and down manually lol…
Regarding Brit Nats, CyberBrits and some recent tweeting that has caused offence;
George Foulkes is a British Nationalist.
Nick Griffin is a British Nationalist.
Jack McConnell is a British Nationalist.
Nick Griffin is a British Nationalist.
Bunter: what you want are the Home and End buttons on your keyboard.
@Bunter
@Rev
Unfortunately ipads don’t have HOME and END keys. TOP /BOTTOM buttons would really be a great help particularly for those of us who visit fairly frequently throughout the day.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22459896
MSPs to monitor BBC Scotland’s output and quality
BBC spokesman said: “The BBC is totally committed to covering both the Commonwealth Games and the independence referendum as part of our overall coverage.
“For the Commonwealth Games, we have said we will build on the BBC’s successful coverage of the Olympics and will provide 15 separate streams beamed from 17 locations around Scotland, utilising all the expertise and experience gained last year.
“For the referendum, we are already bringing comprehensive impartial coverage to audiences in Scotland, the UK and the rest of the world, and that will continue as we head towards voting day next year.”
@Titler
A good post.
People in Scotland often feel that people in England don’t understand Scotland. However, that also applies the other way too. Many in Scotland look at politics in England and don’t understand it. The Tory mentality and support for UKIP is just something really rare up here and people don’t get it, well not fully. That in a way makes them fear it as much as what it stands for.
Scotland exists as Scotland within the union; it has never really been Britain, just Scotland in Britain. In that sense it exits within it’s own ‘bubble’; that of a nation with its own institutions (education, Schools, newspapers, sports teams, laws). The question of it’s place in the UK is as old as the UK. Quite different from England which has never question this strongly as it is Britain.
The current rise in support for autonomy/independence in Scotland goes back a long time. You need to go back to the post-war period to find the last peak of Britishness when support for independence was only 15-20% or so. This was the time of the welfare state / the post-war consensus / nationalised industries, all of which made Scots feel part of something bigger. However, even at that time nearly half the Scottish electorate signed a petition calling for a Scottish devolved parliament.
The decline of the empire was instrumental in increasing support for autonomy. After all the reason for the union was empire. The overruling of the 1979 referendum and thatcherism – which was hated in Scotland – almost broke Britain; she ripped the British out of Scotland when she closed down or sold off all the British things Scots knew. Polls in the period around the 1997 devolution referendum show that if Scots had been asked about independence, they’d have voted Yes in strong majority. Devolution put a lid on things, but it was always going to be temporary as more and more autonomy was sought. Furthermore, then the Tories returned – which they eventually would – things would come to a head again as they now have.
The recent rise of UKIP/the more extreme right + the EU exist is little to do with how we got to here, but could well be the tipping factor in terms of concluding the outcome.
In that sense independence has not always been a lifeboat, just seen as Scotland’s own boat. With no empire and the rise of the European union, why be in one union when there’s newer ones a foot. What was the point of the UK etc? Of course the rise of the right (and the end of the old left with New Labour) in England has now made Scotland’s own boat look increasingly like a lifeboat; the only way out.
Personally, I have come from feeling generally ok with British but wanting a more federal solution (when voting Yes in 1997) to not being naive enough to believe that’s ever going to happen (confirmed post 2007 when the Libs refused to deal with the SNP on a second devo option referendum) and so deciding independence is the only way forward for where I live.
@ yes yes yes,
“Ian Smart has tweeted that he is off on his hols to Verona in a couple of days”
Holiday, or fact finding mission?
As for Scotlands negotiating team after independence. I wouldn’t let they lot near Scotlands team, but I think it’s a great idea to offer them the job now.
This would force them to say wether they would still want to be politicaly active and be part of our future, as an independent nation.
this could be used to bring into focus that a lot of very experienced and the most able MP’s would be returning to Scotland and that therefore Labour and to a lesser extent the Liberals would become a force again in Scottish politics. Independence would then be a positive thing for staunch Labour people to vote for, as all these ‘big hitters’ (no laughing) would return to the Scottish Parliament and we would see the Labour Party with all it’s best talents rising again like a pheonix (I said no laughing!)
This would cause anxiety in the MSP back benchers as their own position would be under threat.
This would open up these cracks that are evident in the Labour party and might make them make another one of these political blunders, that Labour MSP/MP’s are becoming expert in.
Wishful thinking?
“Unfortunately ipads don’t have HOME and END keys. TOP /BOTTOM buttons would really be a great help particularly for those of us who visit fairly frequently throughout the day.”
You find ’em for me, I’ll plug ’em in.
Cheers Rev, that works for me!
@Patrick Roden
😀 Yep, you can picture the front bench with Davidson, Curran, Alexander, Murphy………. I’m turning the gas on in the oven now.
You find ‘em for me, I’ll plug ‘em in.
http://wordpress.org/extend/plugins/scroll-top-and-bottom/
Poor poll in the Times. S_S any thoughts?
Hey Bill C – poll looks like core indy support steady but don’t knows scared by recent BT onslaught running for cover and saying NO.
No real change to fundamentals and good that the fear is being drawn out at this early stage?
@Max
NNS carried this report of an email in which it seems that the BBC claims it is not under any obligation, at this time, to be impartial.
http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/referendum/6740-we-dont-have-to-be-balanced-in-referendum-debate-says-bbc
Interesting polls out today.
UKIP have taken 5% points from both Labour (38%) and the Tories (27%) and now stand at 17%.
On Europe the divide between Scotland and the rest of the UK still remains.
UK: For EU 35%, Against EU 46%
Scotland: For EU 48%, Against EU 42%
So these polls confirm that England is lurching further to the right and is voting for isolationism from Europe, and that Scots can’t do a thing about it.
Scots can’t do a thing about it.
Not this year, no.
Thanks Jiggsbro, this numpty would never have found them.
Patrick Roden says: @ 8:14am
Verona was part of the Austria from 1797 to 1866.
Seems that the Austrians left a political worm or trojan horse there when they left.
Ian Smart must be doing some research
My view is that Ian Smart is feeling the heat and getting out of the kitchen! More importantly does his visit mean there will be “Three Gentlemen of Verona” – God help them! – and me for that bad joke!
Yes 31% No 59% ,,, were the F— did that come from. Rev, can you I’ve me another slant on these figures to cheer me up.
Good post Titler
The socio-economic analysis of what is driving the shift to the right in English politics is both interesting and a wee bit worrying. It does rather highlight the fact that the political reaction in Scotland (and Wales) to these austere times has been to shift to the left. We are two nations going in oppposite directions (although I readily concede that parts of England, like Bristol, buck that trend). Whether we vote Yes or No to independence this tectonic plate shift is likely to continue and cause further political tremors and perhaps earthquakes.
I do begin to find this guilt schtick some people are trying to dump on Scotland very tedious. First of all, even if the lifeboats and the Titanic analogy were valid (which it isn’t), would people trapped in an accident and unable to be rescued really seriously want and even demand that others in a position to be saved should jump back into the flames or the freezing water and perish with them?
Scotland doesn’t have sufficient voting clout to make any difference to the way England votes, in the grand scheme of things. We’ve hung in there trying for decades, and look where it’s got us. It’s pure dog-in-the-manger selfishness to demand that we carry on doing it. The only part of England this would benefit is the financiers in the City, who will be able to go on milking our revenues, and the infrasctucture of the south-east, which will no doubt get another shiny new railway or motorway or sewer system.
The second point is that England is not beyond rescue. The only problem is, it’s not the Scots who are in a position to rescue England, it’s England herself. Scotland does not have the voting clout to drag England off the course England is set on (and really, have we the right to do that anyway?), but England does. The people the left in England need to be appealling to are not the Scots, but their own compatriots. The people who are voting Tory and UKIP, the people who are dragging the Labour party to the right.
Scotland is another country, that just happens to be in a union with England. Suppose we weren’t. Would the English left-wing think it acceptable to go to Norway and beg that country to subsume itself in a political union, in order to skew the voting patterns (and by the way, thanks for the oil….)
There comes a point when the only sensible answer is, sorry, no. You need to sort yourself out. I’m off.
Morning Dee – like you i’m a bit depressed with no evidence of an improvement in polling despite the horrors being imposed by Westminster. Don’t know how Scottish Skier stays so optimistic – I wish he’d tell me!
Dee
We have had nothing but unmitigated scare stories for the last month. Pensions, the Pound, Defence, Oil etc., The net impact of all this is that the polls have barely moved outside of the normal margin of error for any such poll. There is a bedrock of one third of the population that will vote Yes come Hell or high water. We know that there is a soft underbelly of No/Undecideds and at the moment the scare stories are loosely ushering them into the No camp. We need to break those fences down and scatter the fears that are being used to pen people in.
I think it can be done, you can’t maintain scares for the best part of two years, people get bored, especially if voting No starts to look like a scarier option. Milliband is losing ground in England. That could leave a potential Cameron/Farage coalition. That is scarier than all the Bitter wee scare stories put together.
Over the last 8 months we have seen voting intentions swing 8% for a YES vote and 14% for a NO vote.
That highlights the volatility of the polling so far.
@Max
“For the referendum, we are already bringing comprehensive impartial coverage to audiences in Scotland, the UK and the rest of the world, and that will continue as we head towards voting day next year.”
No doubt that statement was sanctioned by Ian Smart’s pal at the beeb John Boothman, Head of news and current affairs at BBC Jockland, who just happens to be married to Susan Deacon.
Hmmmm! I wonder if Boothman was one of the Scottish broadcasters Lord Des Browne held covert talks with last year, and is perhaps responsible for the silencing of Izzy Fraser.
Impartial my arse!
@ Dee,
At the moment, the NO campaign and their media mouthpieces are throwing the kitchen sink at us with daily scares and support has not really diminished. The YES campaign are holding fire till the Brit Nats run out of steam, become repetitive, become a joke with no vision & nothing to offer.
The Scot Gov white paper will be a game changer, as long as the media publish the details fairly with none of the shenanigans with the last GERS report.
@Titler,
“Nottingham was one of the few parts of the country that sided with the government against Scargill”.
Unfortunately, that’s true but let’s not forget there was much support (not enough obviously) for the NUM in Nottingham. For example, I had a mate who was a miner from Nottingham in the 1980s. And one of his favourite possessions was his t-shirt with the words ‘Fuck the UDM’ printed on the front and back.
Something Doesn’t quite add up on the latest poll from ipso-mori the percentage does’nt look right. maybe most folk polled are playing with their cards close to their chest
“Something Doesn’t quite add up on the latest poll from ipso-mori the percentage does’nt look right. maybe most folk polled are playing with their cards close to their chest”
The poll is bollocks. The independence vote is well within normal fluctuations and doesn’t bother me in the least, but the idea that Labour are suddenly ahead in Holyrood voting intentions (from, what, 16 points behind last month?) is so laughable that the poll can only have been taken at the Labour conference. Let’s see what the next one says – or better yet, completely ignore polls until this time next year, when they might mean something.
What the Rev Said
@Nairn
Cybernat and the N-Word
African Americans took possession of the derogatory word “nigger” (Huckleberry Finn), now referred to in the public forums of america as the N-word. By doing so, they not only neutralised its negative connotations, but indeed used it “to convey a range of attitudinal stances related to its basic meaning, including solidarity, censure, and a proactive stance that seeks to bring about positive change”
This is how we should approach the term CYBERNAT. I have tried to bring this idea to bear already in previous threads. One simply has to embue the word with meanings which convey
“attitudinal stances, including solidarity, censure, and a proactive stance that seeks to bring about positive change”
Example: CYBERNAT as an Acronym (see “A Cybernat Writes“)
“Countering Your British Establishments Relentless Negativity and Tripe”
What chance is there that the polling organisations have been ”got at” like everything else within the British State.
Are there not any reputable foreign based organisations that can be comissioned for polls?
@Max @Ananurhing
Coordinate Adjectives or Not, BBC?
The BBC’s official response to Holyrood’s decision to monitor BBC output in Scotland has to be read to be believed.
“For the referendum, we are already bringing comprehensive impartial coverage to audiences in Scotland, the UK and the rest of the world, and that will continue as we head towards voting day next year.”
Now the only question is whether this is either an untruth (not accusing them of lying, for the Lawyers in the room!), or simply a brilliant example of tendentious lawyer speak. It all comes down to whether the adjectives are to be interpreted as co-ordinate or not. Consider the two variants:
i) impartial comprehensive coverage
ii) impartial and comprehensive coverage
i) is certainly false.
ii) is partially true if the BBC provided at least some output with is impartial, and partially false since they have definitively not provided comprehensive output on the referendum.
Now lets re-examine the BBC claim of comprehensive (impartial coverage); paranthesis intentional to emphasise the non-coordinated interpretation.
Well, if there has been no impartial coverage, then what does it mean to describe that which does exist with the adjective comprehensive. It is in fact without meaning! So, indeed the claim is then empty! Not an untruth, just an unstatement! Devious or what!
How are the pollsters comparing over the past 8 months?
Average lead for NO vote
Ipsos/Mori (3): 25%
TNS/BMRB (2): 21%
Angus Reid (2): 16%
Panelbase (3): 10%
A 15% disparity in polling is very significant and highlights differences between polling methodologies.
I’m with Scottish Skier and his optimism. This poll is totally at odds with the statistics coming from my nearest, very active Yes group, who are recording an increase in Yes pledges, a decrease in Nos, and a larger increase in DNYKNs (Dinnae kens). The DNYKNs are only heading in one direction.
I’m sure the Yes hierarchy are playing the correct game for the moment. Biding their time, and letting the Nos wail and gnash themselves into a negative frenzy. Straight from the book on how to do it. Sun Tzu’s Art of War, which makes great play of diminishing your opponents ability to fight you, before you engage.
” If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant.”
I suppose these recent polls must be mince because the bbc in Scotland are not making it headline news, and you know that if it was true and impartial then they would have told us about it, also got a bit more detail on the poll And it was taken immediately after the info on pensions etc was released By bitter together. Vote Yes.
I always find Scottish Skier to be extremely insightful as far as dissecting polls go – what’s the chance of a guest article? I don’t think they really matter at all in real terms at the moment, but they are often propaganda goldmines. Knowing how they go about collecting their information, who they poll and how people make themselves available for polls and so on would make for a very informative read.
I’m with Scottish Skier and his optimism.
If I was IPSOS MORI, I’d be asking why I get No 11% higher and Yes 7% lower than (the venerable) Angus Reid and Panelbase (both anonymous online with similar methods to gold standard ICM and in agreement with the latter) for the same time period.
Likewise, why quite far from the other non-anonymous pollster TNS-BMRB who do face to face? MORI are Yes 3% lower and No 5% higher for the same time period.
Maybe time to give up landline telephone polling like all the big guns have due to inherent and growing problems? MORI are the only one left; the rest are online with TNS now going online too.
Online gets rid of any ‘shy’ factor and also ensures you can get a good cross section every time (which greatly reduces the need for weighting) because you pick your sample from a huge database to match the correct demographic/regional profiles. That’s why all the pollsters are using it now; they’ve found they predict election results far more accurately with it.
MORI have historically always had the highest levels of No and Yes on the lower end. This one is a major outlier and really they need to ask themselves why.
Note that the above is for ‘all’, not ‘certain to vote’; compare like with like.
Oh, and note the poll is too close (started before) the English council elections to show any UKIP factor,
Re the polls – anyone who reads the Guardian CIF online will know of Dorice. She’s fantastic at batting back ridiculous comments and generally puts people straight with regard to Scottish Independence.
I recall seeing a comment from her a few months back when polling was being discussed. She said that she had been polled regularly until last May when she had declared she would be voting ‘yes’. She had never been polled since … curious that!
Has anyone else noticed the irony of Ian Smart raising the ridiculous (and offensive) spectre of post-Independence ethnic tensions, fresh as he is from defending the acceptance of BT donation from someone with documented links to perpetrators of the most brutal ethnic cleansing in Europe in the past 60 years.
He who pays the piper calls the tune.
Surely not !
Because of line telephone distribution, required for work etc., any large telephone poll will get too many on the C1 C2 boundary. These are the people who think they think for themselves and are highly exercised by their information sources. Ergo IPSOS-MORI are a good poll as to the effectiveness of the media’s influence.
@Titler,
You probably know about this but, just in case you don’t, here’s confirmation of the truth of the old adage: what goes around comes around.
Former President of the UDM, and poster boy of Thatcherism, Neil Greatrex, was found guilty of stealing £150,000 from a miners’ care home charity in Notts in 2012.
Worth noting also that another former poster boy of Mrs Thatcher’s, Eddie Shah, former boss of the Stockport Messenger Group and the Today newspaper in the 1980s, is currently on trial, accused of raping a 14 year-old girl and other offences.
To think that these were the same people who took the high moral ground against us in the 1980s, whose ‘virtues’ were celebrated nationally by the Thatcherites at the time.
Bunter
The polling agencies are unlikely to be got at but they are commissioned by paying customers and it is well understood that polling methodology, timing and questions will draw out certain responses more than others. Political Parties frequently commission private polls with very neutral questions to gauge more accurate responses.
At this stage it certainly suits to have very negative polls in order to add to the gloom but this can lead to people who are wavering to vote the way they want because the polls say it isn’t going to happen so it becomes a risk free vote. I can see the polls tightening as we get closer to the day.
I used to be a regular on YouGov but now am being screened out of political polls, after the last one when I answered YES to all the questions regarding Scottish politics
There is none so blind as they that won’t see, as J Swift once said. Mind you, regular imbibers of my infamous homebrew come a close second.
@Patrick Roden,
‘@ yes yes yes,
“Ian Smart has tweeted that he is off on his hols to Verona in a couple of days”
Holiday, or fact finding mission?’.
LOL.
Have you developed a rash?
BtP
As in “All I get is bitter and a nasty little rash”
Look at his Avatar
Rash or woad?
Ribena?
Blue shingles. Very rare.
Is it paired with your left buttock?
Jeesh, this is what happens when I don’t put new posts up.
Yup. Talking of avatars, I thought Dorice was a he?
@B(tP)
How did you know I was half baboon?
Got something new and juicy Rev lol…
chuckles
never beaten on quips then?
salut
No probs Rev, don’t worry (but I think they need a new scriptwriter).
Morag
I thought Dorice was a bloke too.
I`m not expecting the polls to show support for independence over 40% at any point before the referendum; what good would that do the No campaign? Just checked the Better Together Facebook page today (my eyes, my eyes…), the rampant (and expected) “It`s over, just go crawl back under your separatist stones already”) type comments regards news of this new poll are very telling.
As are the rampant (fixed?) ‘likes’
The entire No campaign is a midden of lies, misinformation, bias, propaganda and racism. It will fail.
I totally need coffee!
Yep, dorice is a bloke.
Yes, confirm that Morag, Dorice is definitely male…
It seems OT but is actually on topic.
Should the SNP change its name to the Scottish Local Party as that is what its civic nationalism really is and it puts clear blue water between itself and easy slurs about Adolf and the BNP?
@BtP
Could be his true blue T *** side coming through!
Frances says:
9 May, 2013 at 11:35 am
Re the polls – anyone who reads the Guardian CIF online will know of Dorice. She’s fantastic at batting back ridiculous comments and generally puts people straight with regard to Scottish Independence.
I recall seeing a comment from her a few months back when polling was being discussed. She said that she had been polled regularly until last May when she had declared she would be voting ‘yes’. She had never been polled since … curious that!
Interesting. I was polled by telephone a few times last year. The last time I was polled I stated thet I would be voting Yes and that was my only intention.
I haven’t been contacted about it again since? Perhaps it was an SNP poll or something (I can’t remember who it was).
@skier: Polls results vary, even if nothing much has changed. After all, random noise is a feature of polling, not a bug.
Having said that, the Holyrood VI numbers are atypical with a Labour lead (+1) in the constituency vote and an SNP lead in the regional vote down at 2007 levels (+3). Now Ipsos MORI’s house bias (relative to other pollsters, not unknowable reality) seems to be towards understating the SNP vote and overstating Labour. But unless others start showing similar results, well you do have to wonder. The great sage Curtice was writing just a month back that SNP VI remained largely unchanged. And he can’t be wrong, can he?
Now Ipsos MORI’s house bias (relative to other pollsters, not unknowable reality) seems to be towards understating the SNP vote and overstating Labour.
Historically that is correct. They are also the most reactionary (to traditional press stories and perceived mood of the nation/what is right to say and what is wrong to say), i.e. show some huge swings over short periods that other polls don’t. It’s a symptom of the demographic they are getting by using old landline telephone methods. They really need to start at least regionally weighting too; assuming Scotland’s politics are homogeneous geographically is a big mistake. Even TNS do basic regional weighting.
I don’t understand why anyone would restrict their polling base to folk with landlines. I know several people who don’t even own a landline, since they generally just use their mobiles anyway, and mobiles don’t get the same volume of spam phonecalls from Indian call centres as landlines do.
I’ve had increasing doubts about MORI’s impartialityand methodology re their IndyRef polling.
Main reason is because last Decemeber they self-funded their own survey of ‘high level’ business leaders which, in my opinion, was guaranteed to produce a high anti-Indy result, which they then announced in a very triumphant, trumpeting, Daily Mailesque way…
Another reason is their oldest age-group category in their Yes/No methodology: ’55+’. Before that is 35-54, usually the highest % of Yes. It then always drops off when it comes to 55+ – an age-group which presumably includes up to 90+.
Both the number and proportion of retirees, who I would say it safe to assume a relatively big majority intend to No more than Yes (as Mori’s own poll results show), has gone up in every MORI Yes/No poll since June last year. June 12: 254. Oct 12: 267. January 13: 270. May 13: 275.
There’s a rise in the percentage of retirees in the 55+ age group from 69% in June last year to 75% in the most recent one.
I haven’t done all the analysis yet to figure out what difference that might make to the overall result, but I reckon it’s at least around a percentage point. I’m not saying that it is deliberate poll-fixing by MORI – but I am saying that the consistent trend re an increased number and proportion of of retirees in the 55+ age group is at best sloppy methodological application and/or oversight which has a high chance of introducing a bias against Yes. And I’m just suspicious why this sloppiness has not been picked up and/or amended…
@Dee, 10:51
I think the BBC has a policy of not running stories on opinion polls outside election campaigns. They have a poll tracker in the (UK) politics section, but I don’t think specific polls get reported on.
IIRC, when they started their Scottish election coverage with a ridiculous “which manifesto pledges are most popular” poll*, something was said along those lines.
*the poll was ridiculous because it was carried out before most parties had actually published their manifestoes. Oh, except for Labour. Funny, that.
Oh and note only 65% of people in the MORI survey said they were sure they would not change their minds. Only 45% of those polled said they were sure of No / would not change their minds and that’s for a quite pro-no methodology.
@Boorach & B(tP)
Aye, half baboon and half Tory. That’s about the size of it. I’m thinking of applying for a job as chief strategist at Better Together, and with my impeccable credentials I think I’m in with a good shout.
Doug Daniel says:
9 May, 2013 at 2:14 pm
I don’t understand why anyone would restrict their polling base to folk with landlines. I know several people who don’t even own a landline, since they generally just use their mobiles anyway, and mobiles don’t get the same volume of spam phonecalls from Indian call centres as landlines do.
I posted about this on a previous thread a while back.
Basically there was a guy from Israel on the radio berating the pollsters for their outdated methods of polling.
The polls in Israel showed that one party (can’t remember which) had a HUGE lead and were assured victory in their general election.
Come polling day that HUGE lead in the polls failed to materialise and the other party won.
He blamed the outdated methods of polling landline telephone numbers instead of engaging in online / social media polling of the web generation. Basically the only folk with a landline and are at home all day are mostly retired. The older generation are not known for their tireless pursuit of change. He couldn’t understand why Isreali & UK politicians still put so much faith in this method.
I’m not worried at all. We will win the referendum.
@Major Bloodnok,
“Aye, half baboon and half Tory”.
OK Major, you’ve sussed me out. Yes, I am black but no blue blood I’m pleased to say. But I can see where this is going to go for as long as I’m around here so, I’m out of here. I’m sure you and your little retinue will miss my contributions to Wings but, hey-ho.
Hope you get the job btw.
Sorry, what just happened here?
I have no idea. It was a bit of a slow thread so B(tP) extrapolated from my avatar that I had a (partly) blue arse, I responded by confirming (somewhat coquettishly) my clearly simian ancestry, and then Boorach kindly implied I was a Tory, so I thought – what the heck I’ll just go with the flow. I didn’t offend someone did I? Not my intention.
YesYesYes says:
9 May, 2013 at 6:30 pm
@Major Bloodnok,
“Aye, half baboon and half Tory”.
OK Major, you’ve sussed me out. Yes, I am black but no blue blood I’m pleased to say. But I can see where this is going to go for as long as I’m around here so, I’m out of here. I’m sure you and your little retinue will miss my contributions to Wings but, hey-ho.
Hope you get the job btw.
I’m confused? Did I miss something on another thread or what?
Rev,
I owe you an apology and, more importantly, I own Major Bloodnok an apology. Major, I’m so sorry for the offensive post that I addressed to you yesterday. I also owe you and the Rev a full explanation for my outburst yesterday but I’ll spare you the full version, if only because I think you’re more likely to read this through to the end if I keep it brief.
Short version? As crazy as it sounds now, I got it into my thick skull yesterday that there was a group attack kicking off against me on this thread. The reasoning behind it, if I can call it ‘reasoning’, was that I’d convinced myself that some people were getting pissed off at the number of comments I’d been posting on the topics of Ian Smart and anti-racism.
And when I posted to the Rev, yesterday, the comment:
“No probs Rev, don’t worry (but I think they need a new scriptwriter)”
I was effectively saying to the Rev, ‘I’m not going to rise to the bait’ (remember, at that stage I’d convinced myself that the group thing was gathering momentum). My only excuse for yesterday was that I was extremely tired and cranky and that I think too much, but that’s not an excuse really – after all, I’m old enough to know that if there’s one thing that you don’t do when you’re extremely tired and cranky, is post a comment.
Then I posted another anti-racist comment at 3.43pm (on the ‘Standing up for your own side’ thread) and then, at 5,20pm, I read the Major’s comment on this thread and I added 2+2 and came up with 7. Cue my size 10s, wicked tongue and big mouth, you know the rest. Yesterday, I was not only being stupid, or less charitably, being an arsehole, in that post, more to the point what I said to the Major in the offending post was unforgiveable.
I’ll never live down the shame of that post and I wouldn’t blame the Rev if he held it up as a constant reminder on WoS to others of what a post from an arsehole looks like (I deserve it). For that reason, It’s better that I diligently avoid making contributions to below the llne comments from now on and limit myself to reading the Rev’s articles and continuing to support the site in other more constructive ways. Once again Major (and Stu), I’m sorry. It will not happen again.
The Panda forgives you anyway
Hello YesYesYes. Don’t worry, I thought it was just some sort of misunderstanding and would sort itself out. Don’t let this put you off posting – we need to continue the informed and intelligent debate around here and you are a recognised and valued part of that.
I didn’t get the job by the way – not Tory enough. Their loss, I say.
@Yes, Yes, Yes
As I do of a morning, I was just having a look at recent comments on the rhs and came across this misunderstanding.
That’s all it is, it would be a shame if you now went into a self imposed below the line exile.
What you were saying, about the use of language yesterday, was/is apposite to the debate about the term ‘CyberNat’.
Anyway that’s my view for what it’s worth.
@ Yes Yes Yes,
OK, you had a bad day. Its not the end of the world. I think many of the regulars have posted things that they later wished they had not done. Don’t over think the reaction to this – your comments are to valuable to lose.
BtP and MajorBloodnok have accepted your apologies and I cannot see anyone else losing any sleep over what was strange although funny comments at the end of a thread.
We are a small community of people who comment online with a common goal and interest in Scotland being the best country that it can be for the benefit of those who chose to live here. Scotland’s influence has repercussions in other parts of the world. You need to continue to post on Wings as much as everyone else. Take time out by all means if it makes you feel better, but please remain below the line.
YesYesYes
I for one feel that you should ask the Rev to remove your apology, as I feel it not no longer serves any purpose being on the board. Perhaps he might also consider removing the posts subsequent to the original post as well?
I have moved on and so should you.
Keep posting please.
Many thanks for your comments all. Greatly appreciated.
Major, you know when you’ve done something that you regret and you worry about its effect on someone else? Well, the worries I had about the effects of my offensive post to you yesterday were all dispelled by your post this morning. Many thanks for that, particularly as I had no right to expect it from you. Glad you didn’t get the job btw, you know that it would only have ended in tears round about the morning of September 19th 2014 (if not before).
I’m going to take Adrain B’s advice and have a wee time out.
Claim the word, change its meaning. Cybernats are COOL.
@Bugger (the panda),
Cheers Btp and thanks again for your earlier comment too.
I think my bargaining strength with the Rev is pretty weak at the moment, though, and I don’t want to push my luck. He always does what’s in the best interests of the site and that’s as it should be. He could always set up a ‘Posts of Shame’ alongside ‘Quarantine’, and consign me to eternal ridicule there.
Hey, YesYesYes, I was confused by your posts yesterday, including by a couple to me, but I didn’t see anything I thought was offensive – I simply didn’t understand what you were trying to say.
So it was all a misunderstanding. We all get tired and cranky and say things we don’t mean. It’s being able to explain, and apologise if necessary, that’s important. You mustn’t stop posting because of this!
@YesYesYes
You maybe feel bad today, but hopefully tomorrow you’ll feel a wee bit less bad and the day after that, less bad again.
One of the best pieces of advice I ever came across came from a Bart Simpson episode – Marge had done something she felt really bad about and kept blaming herself for it. Homer’s advice? “Gee Marge, just blame yourself the once and move on”. We’ve forgotten it – so should you. And remember, we didn’t really understand what it was about in the first place.
Also your advice on the subject of owning the term was spot on – that’s why I wrote wee song about it. You and Cameron have now given me the idea of making a wee video for YouTube about it, if I can get the help. So, for God sake, don’t stop posting!
@Morag,
Many thanks for that. I would never purposefully offend anyone (yesterday’s indiscretion notwithstanding). I think we’ve crossed swords only a few times on WoS but I’ve always seen it as good knockabout stuff.
But you’re right, I’m maybe a bit too oblique for my own good sometimes and you have to always remember there are real people out there reading this stuff. I do try (not always successfully I admit) to inject some humour into a lot of my posts and it doesn’t always work out, particularly when you post in haste (only to repent at leisure).
I have a thing about group attacks – my antennae are always on the lookout for them. That’s a problem for me, though, and my best policy should be, when I sense that they’re getting underway, butt out and leave them to it. Yesterday wasn’t a group attack, of course, but my over-sensitivity to them as well as the other causes I cited above, persuaded me otherwise yesterday. It was a strange day yesterday and I’m glad to see the back of it.
@Jeannie,
Cheers for that Jeannie.
I really am going to take that time out now but, once again, many thanks all.
“I think my bargaining strength with the Rev is pretty weak at the moment, though, and I don’t want to push my luck. He always does what’s in the best interests of the site and that’s as it should be. He could always set up a ‘Posts of Shame’ alongside ‘Quarantine’, and consign me to eternal ridicule there.”
Frankly I still barely have any idea what happened and nobody seems to be very offended, so let’s just all forget it and move on, eh?
@ YesYesYes
I had a crappy day at work today but whoosh, its done dusted and ive let it go. Im feeling fine now and i hope you are too. The Major and Rev et al are a good and forgiving bunch as demonstrated above so dont you dare ‘separate’ yourself from us Cybernats. We’re all in this together to win our countrys independence and anyway, youre one of the main guys i look out for on here. Your contributions are valued and the thought of you posting too many times would never enter my head. Happy weekend!
@EdinScot-
Hear hear to that.
Aw for wan, wan for aw an' aw that…