Which of these is true? #2
Looks like we’ve got another difference of opinion, Geoffrey.
That’s the Scotland On Sunday view (in an article which appears to be littered with several troublingly major factual errors, such as claiming the Aberdeen bypass is “still in the courts” when it isn’t, and asserting that numerous very real and operational institutions haven’t been built yet when they rather visibly have).
But the Sunday Herald is getting quite different vibes from its people on the ground.
Now, having been nowhere near the constituency, we’re not going to try to predict the result ourselves. But are Labour “snapping at the SNP’s heels”, or have they given up on a hopeless task against a 1/33 favourite? All we can say for sure is that someone’s got a dodgy source.
(Alternatively, given that less than two weeks ago the weekday Herald was suggesting the by-election could be “a close call”, how unimaginably dire must the Labour candidate’s campaign have been if he’s now so far behind that you have to put £100 on the SNP’s Mark McDonald to win three quid?)
We just hope someone’s got a close eye on the registers this time.
I was passing through the area last weekend, and the place was covered in SNP signs, posters etc. Did not see one reference to any other party. They’ve had their big guns up there on most days, and there have been plenty of accessible hustings (another on Northsound 2 at 11am today) in which McDonald has been the only likeable candidate by far.
Tom Gordon reckons UKIP will get as much as 10% (up from 0.8% last time). We’ll see how that works out.
10-1 is not the ‘best’ bet you can get on Labour. With Betfair, it is currently 31-1.
We have had two years of fairly virulent anti-SNP media activity plus Labour have flown in Harman and Curran to press the flesh. If Labour don’t make inroads to that majority Lamont is going to have look at her performance as a Labour leader.
PS – the pundits on Newsweek didn’t seem to hopeful of a Labour breakthrough.
This is yet another “Stop the SNP dead in it’s tracks bye-election. Indeed if Labour win now and the election records go missing again we shall need a proper stewards enquiry this time.
It doesn’t need paranoia if the BSTs are really at it.
Anyone I have spoken to is voting for Mark.
However, I campaigned in Glenrothes the weekend before th vote and the response was extremely positive on the ground there also. I was confident the SNP had won that (so were the media) but we all know what happened then. How many postal votes have been submitted in Donside…..
There isn’t a chance that the voters of Aberdeen Donside are as thick as Lamont hopes,she found that out the last time she came up here hence the reason she`s not coming back,however,12000 postal votes are a concern.
I look forward to the contortions to come following the Donside result. I expect the Unionist press to implode in a frenzy of distortion, diversion and disinformation.
To my mind, the Better Together propaganda campaign is growing wilder and more implausible every day. The distinct aroma of a turning tide is in the air.
I am a bit puzzled as to why Labour have flown in Harriet Harman. I know Dyce is in the seat and easy to get from Heathrow but why her? It is not a Westminster by-election? It should have been Mrs Graham who is according to media outlets; is the Leader of the Labour Group at Holyrood. Perhaps the 2009 Labour campaign in the Glasgow North East Westminster by-election where they claimed Aberdeen was ripping off Glasgow is coming back to voters minds, helped and aided by campaign leaflets to jog peoples memories which are notoriously short-term as Labour campaigners had hoped.
ScottyC1314
I spent a lot of time in Glenrothes and I did not have the sense were were winning at all. No warm with the electorate compared to Glasgow East the year before. Far too many refusing to answer who they were going to vote for. The opposite of Aberdeen where local factors of decisions of Fife Council were used against the SNP candidate who happened to be the Leader of Fife Council. First by-election I have sat out of but friends who are close to the campaign and can tell how things look are quite happy with the campaign.
I am not sure what he was whiffing on about, but Lord Foulkes was tweting something about the SNP concentrating so much on Donside that they were trying to disguise conceding a by-election in Edinburgh.
Anyone know what the bile filled troll was on about?
The media is just a mirror of the whole NO campaign.
Just one big contradiction.
Few more errors in that piece… should be:
“Lamont’s unpopularity was underscored by Labour’s decision not to let her campaign in the city over the final weekend of the by-election.”
Yup, Gardham was reporting just 2 weeks ago how close it would be. Contrasts rather jarringly with todays Herald piece. Just how out of touch can a political editor be?
anyone care to suggest how Labour will spin an increased SNP majority?
Erchie
a council by-election will be held in the Gilmorton ward to replace Tom Buchanan, who died earlier this year.
Since Labour gained the first two declared seats in this ward, there is virtually no chance that SNP will top what is essentially a top- of-the-heap contest.
Do people still believe that newspapers objectively print the news?
How quaint and utterly naive!
Marcia
I was only there weekend before but I did get the distinct impression that party leaders were hopeful (expecting) a win. I cannot mind the areas I was in but there were plenty SNP posters in windows. May have been SNP council wards of course.
I was under the impression it was all going well at the count until postal votes began to be counted but this may be a story that has been embellished over time? The fact the voting register went missing however will mean there is will always be a significant degree of doubt over that outcome.
anyone care to suggest how Labour will spin an increased SNP majority?
Something like this I’d imagine (from the Herald article).
A senior [Labour] campaign source said: “People don’t want to vote for the SNP. They don’t like Salmond or independence, but they also don’t have a big reason to vote Labour yet. We might pick up a bit, but people are not exactly rushing to us.”
You see people will vote SNP even if they don’t like the SNP and don’t want to vote for them. It’s obvious!
Labour’s continual delusional justifications for their failures are pathetic aren’t they? Long may it continue.
ScottyC1314
Some campaign managers did think they had a chance while some fellow foot sloggers had the same feeling as I had.
Glenrothes and its missing registers will remain a mystery for ever more. If you were out of the SNP heartland of some Glenrothes wards the reception on the doors was what I would say rather cool. As a former TV show had the words ‘and the clues are there’. The former mining communties is where Labour had its strength and the delaying of the by-election helped Labour to gather much needed canvass information. It didn’t help that is rained heavily in the evening of polling day.
MMcD was on the local radio earlier in the week where the Labour guy sent his apologies as he had to look after a sick relative Later he was photographed out campaigning (may have been on Yoohans away day) Would appear he was lying as is normal
SLAB should ask themselves why the people don’t like the SNP but still vote for them
Down here in the South Lanarkshire Soviet we voted SNP because it’s the only way of getting rid of the SLAB !
But that is changing. We now vote SNP because they are good ! Good for us and good for the country.
Hail Alba
Sense I get is that there has been a good local campaign with a strong candidate up against a very very unpopular Labour candidate.
I have heard there has been a lot of postal votes but that could be that the SNP have got their act together as far as postal voting goes.
If the SNP win it will have been done in the face of strong opposition from Aberdeen journals so it will be no mean feat to hold on to this one.
Labour have played the divide and rule tactics saying that Glasgow gets everything from the SNP while Aberdeen gets nothing.
Glasgow gets everything from the SNP and Aberdeen gets nothing? Are they saying that? What a bunch of idiots assuming that people can’t see them tell the opposite lie when it comes to Glasgow elections.
The labour party in Scotland what can you say about them …….? A party that should’ve had no worries about losing by elections back in the day . ? A party that always had a leader you could connect with .? A party based on the next generation vote ……? This is for the last few years not been the case and not likely to change for some time to come it’s to myself from what I see in politics in Scotland the changes in our voting citizens . No longer is the mind set off people of if my parents vote for them I’ll vote for them .If politicians in the labour party could stop believing in the way it used to be then and only then will thay start to climb the up the poles of populism .As for the press in this latest election grow up and look at the changing world around us .No longer do you have a say to the new generation of voters news papers to them is something their Saturday night chips are wrapped in……
Evening Express, 13 Jun 2013
“THE Conservatives have overtaken Labour to seize second spot in the Evening Express’ latest Donside by-election survey. The snapshot of more than 100 Donside voters gives a hint at what the outcome of the by-election in one week’s time could be. All three Evening Express surveys have showed that SNP candidate Mark McDonald was at the head of the pack. This time he had 37% of the votes. Conservative Ross Thomson was in second with 21%, while Labour’s Willie Young had 10%. UKIP’s Otto Inglis and Lib Dem Christine Jardine tied in fourth with 7% each. The total response was 113, with 97 previous respondents and 16 new.”
@james Kay
I live in the Gilmerton Ward and I think the SNP guy Derek has a good chance. He’s the only candidate that is getting around the ward. Nothing from Labour at all. Nice wee leaflet from the Greens but nothing from anyone else. Labour relying on die hard voters. and in this ward that means an ever decreasing amount of people to be honest due to the demograph. So hope springs eternal.
UKIP’s candidate is called Otto? Hahahahahahahah!
I can’t find those William Hill odds on their website. It’s a shame because, even at 33/1 on, that’s a better return than my savings account’s annual interest rate.
Complacency is the watchword,and the Labour division has form for postal votes,that must be watched extremely carefully.Telling everybody its a canter is another well used Westminster tactic,so that some may think “I’ll not bother he’ll get in nae bother” then the vote gets close and the postal bundle carries the Westminster choice.I don’t think that there is any difference between Labour.Lib-Dems and the Conservative parties because they are all the one “Westminster party” just different divisions,or three brother from the one “Westminster Family”
At least one Lib Dem politician thinks Willie is in trouble.
The Press and Journal (Aberdeen), 14 Jun 2013
Fast-tracked road plan could lead to evictions
A ROAD upgrade to end congestion at the notorious Haudagain roundabout could start within two years – but residents may be evicted to make way for it.
Liberal Democrat group leader Ian Yuill said: “People have already waited far too long for this notorious junction to be improved.
“Sadly, what took place at today’s committee had nothing to do with Aberdeen’s transport problems and a great deal to do with Willie Young’s increasingly desperate attempts to salvage his failing campaign in Aberdeen Donside.”
But the Mail hopes Anas Sarwar will save the day.
Scottish Mail on Sunday, 16 Jun 2013
Close result predicted as SNP majority is put under threat
CAMPAIGNERS are predicting a close result in a crucial by-election that could demolish the SNP’s Holyrood majority.
The party’s majority has been put on the line by several resignations, and defeat in Thursday’s Aberdeen Donside by-election, called following the death of sitting MSP Brian Adam in April, would mean the SNP would have fewer parliamentary representatives than its opponents.
It would be a huge blow for Mr Salmond, who has repeatedly referred to the resounding victory at the polls in 2011 which saw the SNP govern with a majority for the first time.
Campaigners say feedback on the doorsteps suggests it could be a close result between Labour and the Nationalists.
Anas Sarwar, deputy leader of Scottish Labour, said: ‘Voters who voted SNP in 2011 are frustrated that all we’ve had from the SNP since 2011 is talk about the referendum.’
Glenrothes should tell us that wherever Labour campaigns, the dead will vote. Postal vote rigging at by-elections is their forté. Anyone imaginiing they aren’t doing it here is deluding themselves – they have too much form. The British security services will turn a blind eye and may even help. Someone said, 12k postal votes; that may be enough to swing it for them.
ANUS SARWAR IS ONCE AGAIN, TALKING OUT OF HIS ARSE! Sorry spelling was never my strong point!
Rumour has it that all postal votes are to be redirected through GCHQ!
If there is a big increase in postal votes, some above have mentioned 12,000, then the recording officer should keep these separate for counting , and a put a police guard on the electoral register.
Aye, let’s have the cops guarding the postal ballots, but let’s make double-sure and have Derren Brown there as they’re being opened.
an SNP leaflet going out today:
link to twitter.com
That article by Eddie Barnes is a party political broadcast masquerading as journalism. It has probably caused loss of another 20 readers in Aberdeen or, 50% of the readership of the Scotsman in that area.
If SLAB can’t win a by-election in the mid-term of a second succesive SNP government stretching back to 2007, then they are indeed truly fecked.
I wonder if Harriet Harman has brought her translator with her if I remember correctly she needed one at a Labour hustings in Glasgow a couple of years back.
This election is one where, if there’s anything at all dodgy about the postal votes, the SNP need to be screaming foul from the rooftops. I’m assuming an SNP hold, BT.
Thing is, there’s little point in crying foul if you are defeated, because it just looks like sour grapes, and people ignore you (unless you’ve got cast-iron proof of course). But pointing it out when you win is more likely to get people asking questions, I reckon.
“If there is a big increase in postal votes, some above have mentioned 12,000, then the recording officer should keep these separate for counting”
That should surely be done routinely anyway, given the potential for fraud with postal voting? I’d suggest keeping postal and polling booth separate, and if there’s a difference in results between the two of more than a certain number of percentage points, it should be investigated.
The general view is democracy is dead in Scotland?
Anyone who’s ever been at an election count knows that you can get a good idea of the final result by watching one counter sorting the contents of one batch/box.
Likewise, the ‘Question Time Question Time’ poll on this site showed consistent results from very early-on – if memory serves, with less than 100 votes cast, the % breakdown for the three options remained virtually the same, altering significantly only when the QT had already been broadcast.
If there’s any shenanigans next Friday night? Gloves offsky.
It’s not dead, it’s restin’.
Aberdeen has a dose of Norwegian blues~?
Restin’.
Its hard to do anything else with the amount of rohypnol the MSM keeps trying to feed us.
Too simplistic, Ian, in my constituency the last time they counted their areas first, it was only in the last boxes that we hoped we’d got on terms. In the event we had and it was them that had to call the recount. I just loved their faces
There is very little wrong with postal voting per se. If you are ever called on to assist do make sure that they get their date of birth right. Shakey signatures we can deal with but if the date of birth is wrong that is it. The postal problem is with “people” getting on the register and then being allowed a postal with no evidence of existence. As you all know there is to be a new registration, part of which will be in place for the referendum and thankfully these first steps should cut down this particular avenue for misfeasance.
Best bit of question time has to be G. Galloway’s mathematical incompetence about how many people obviously are worth $million in London – idiot. Closely followed by Farage thinking turning up will serve him anything other than perpetuating the ridicule. If there will be an excess of postal votes, I dread to think how those who cannot make it to a ballot box will make it to a post box.
Cath:
In a vote in the North of England which was investigated for fraud, the postal votes were mixed in with the other votes before counting started. This made it very difficult to work out which votes were which.
I think Labour were banking on people in the north-east still feeling let down by the previous SNP council administration but they made a howler putting up the lamentable and utterly unlikable Willie Young against Mark.
Their campaign has focused on personal attacks against a reasonably likable MSP which come across as spiteful and vindictive with no positive policies being presented alongside them. It’s a total farce.
The SNP campaign has been incredibly slick and all their big names have turned up to support Mark. Alex Salmond has been out canvassing every other day almost.
I’ve been campaigning for the Greens and hopefully we’ll beat UKIP but this is a straightforward win for the SNP.
@handclapping-
I appreciate the point, but you’re citing a close contest. Next Thu should not be ‘close’ by any measure. Okay, the bookies sometimes get it wrong (as they did in 2011) but there’s no way they’d be offering the kind of odds referred to earlier if there’s any chance of an upset.
@ianbrotherhood;
I’d never bet on the posty.
@SECD300
That is a requirement of the law in the same way that boxes with less than 200 ballots must be mixed with another box. Westminster in its ignorance never considered that there might be more than 200 postal ballots!
Even if they do upgrade to 2000+ Tony’s cronies Westminster will continue not working for us
Okay, the bookies sometimes get it wrong (as they did in 2011) but there’s no way they’d be offering the kind of odds referred to earlier if there’s any chance of an upset.
The bookies neither know nor care whether there will be an upset. They only care about making a profit, whatever the result, by balancing the prospective payout of each possible result. That’s what determines their odds: how much has been laid on which outcome and at what odds. If they’re offering short odds on the SNP it’s not because they have some inside knowledge, it’s because they’ve taken a lot of money on that outcome. Bookies don’t ‘get it wrong’. If they did, they’d be out of business. They got it right in 2011. Punters got it wrong.
Using a postal vote? Unless you are ill and can’t walk to the polling station, or you are out of the country, you are just plain lazy.
Get off your sofa and get out and meet real people. You might actually enjoy it.
The Rough Bounds
I am a school janitor and I tend to work when the polling stations are open as do hundreds of other people like me , does that make us lazy ? .
Normally I only vote by postal voting but for the referendum I am intending taking a couple of days off work and voting in person and helping out on the day , assuming I am allowed the time off as annual leave .
I’ll be off the 18th and 19th – I am anticipating being hung over for a few days.
Rough Bounds
not if you bump into Willie Young.
I understood the problem with Labour and the postal vote was that they would arrange to “collect” the postal vote rather than allow it to be posted,they would then batch them and send them in.People were getting caught out thinking that this was the way it was done.
If its a piranah tank then you are James Bond and I claim my £5
Using a postal vote? Unless you are ill and can’t walk to the polling station, or you are out of the country, you are just plain lazy.
I guess lazy people are entitled to a vote, the same as anyone else.
@Jiggsbro & Handclapping-
Understood.
If the SNP don’t win next week – and do so comfortably – something is amiss, and we should all (SNP/Yes fans or otherwise) kick up hell about it.
The majority of ‘voters’ are not ‘punters’ – but all of us can state the bleedin’ obvious, and raise objections when we see something that’s plainly not-right.
If the ‘count’ next week is anything less than perfectly and provably scrupulous, all other polls should be placed on-hold until we find out why it failed.
No ifs, buts or maybes about it – if they can’t get it right in a by-election then we cannot and should not trust the authorities to conduct a referendum on ‘Independence’.
Totally O/T: Mr Brown might have some explaining to do
link to m.guardian.co.uk
i have said it before in respect of the referendum, but the same principles apply to any vote. A postal vote should be for a genuine reason. People in the past paid a heavy price for universal suffrage, and we should all take voting seriously.
The major changes I would make is that postal voters’ returns should NEVER be ‘collected” by a third part (whether that is a political party or anyone else); they MUST be sent directly to the returning officer who should keep them sealed; and they should be counted separately and recorded as such.
I predict some “unusual” voting patterns this week, and also on 18 September 2014. We have been warned before, and to do nothing is a dereliction of responsibly. The Edinburgh Agreement gives management of the referendum to the Scottish Government, I expect them to ensure the fairest voting possible. And postal voting has been demonstrated to be potentially corrupt, and could make the difference.
@Tony
If 12000 postal votes are not verified in the week before the vote then we are looking at the results of the vote up to a week after the event and that is using computerised verification.
Ballot box voting has also been shewn to be susceptible to fraud which is why a party to the poll can appoint polling agents to ask voters to be challenged as to whether they are the person that they claim to be.
The majority of ‘voters’ are not ‘punters’
Which is precisely why the odds at the bookies are meaningless as a prediction of the result.
A bbc reporter said tonight “..the Syrian rebels who are committed to democracy.” The bbc cannae see the truth for their lies.
Maybe Scotland should devise a portable voting van, like a chip van but less enticing.
There is so much ‘stink’ sticking to the postal vote option that I will find it unbelievably irresponsible of the Electoral Commission, to sit on its hands, no matter the result in Donside.
For starters; what percentage is 12,000 of the voter register in Donside? What was the postal voting pattern for previous Donside elections? Does this ring any bells anywhere?
There seems to be some street-wise guessing going on here, as to how postal votes are dealt with in general, but just what are the regulations regarding voting fraud and what happens when actual fraud has taken place?
Who is responsible for voting security and will thereby carry the consequences for voting fraud on his, or her watch?
If the police are to be involved, who instigates that action? Why are the police so slow to intervene if fraud is even suspected? Dare I say, it may be writ in pretty large capitals, if 12,000 postal votes is above the normal.
If this Scottish Government is serious about integrity and standards, any suspected voting fraud has to be hammered. The result of the 2014 referendum is so important to so many vested interests, it is way too much of a risk to leave anything to chance.
link to electoralcommission.org.uk
You think postal voting is bad?
GMS reporting that Holyrood commitee reccomending introduction of internet and telephone voting!
Why don’t we just pay slab to go round collecting everyones ballot papers? Or better still, save postage costs and just deliver pallet loads to jola’s bunker?
Boorach
GMS reporting that Holyrood commitee reccomending introduction of internet and telephone voting!
Why don’t we just pay slab to go round collecting everyones ballot papers? Or better still, save postage costs and just deliver pallet loads to jola’s bunker?
Coffee over keyboard moment, brilliant!
There is nothing inherently wrong in postal voting. Its just that Westminster has given us yet again a totally crappy system. In view of next years clebrations I would draw the lions led by donkeys analogy wider than the WW1 army, its the state of everyone in Britain now.
Can someone direct to an article or site about these postal votes being abused? First I’ve heard of it and would like to know more? Thanks
Really Chalks ! Please use Google.
Search “postal vote fraud UK” and be amazed at the number of hits.
e.g
link to democraticaudit.com
This is the age of the internet.
Hail Alba
o/t but a hopeful report on voting trends by women and the young in today’s Herald! I need some optimism at this time!
Not by the execrable Gardham though !
“Our day is coming”.
If I use the Irish Gaelic phrase the spooks will flag me as an enemy of the State.
I dunno if anyone’s mentioned this yet, but it’s interesting that the media have been going out of their way to point out that “the referendum is not an issue in this by-election”, “this by-election is being fought on local issues” and the likes.
That, to me, is as big an admission as any that there’s little chance of the SNP losing this seat. If it looked like Labour stood a chance of winning, they’d be falling over themselves to tell us that “the people of Aberdeen Donside are making their voices heard on the national question”, or some such rubbish.
The MSM are downplaying it a lot though – a bit like the GCC local elections last year – so if Labour make any gains all, they can portray it as some sort of victory. And heaven forfend they actually win….
However, I wouldn’t be surprised if UKIP make gains at Labour’s expense. Now that would be funny.
Now here we have bookmakers doing business on the outcome,I wonder if that can affect the result?If enough people put a bet on “a rank outsider” and then vote for the outsider,could it happen? is there a chance of that happening? whats the odds then? Oh thats going back to the start! Now being Aberdeen and there being some gamblers there could they organise such a result and clean out the bookies?(LOL)
Forget the bookies; if 12000 is the potential postal vote for Donside, that’s around a 60% increase over the 2011 postal vote of 7488. This should be a cause for concern and increased scrutiny, so who’s going to ensure that happens?
Never underestimate the scruples of Labour, et al – they have form for jiggery-pokery.
Get the magnifying glass out and check everything on each postal vote.