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Wings Over Scotland


Waiting on the guns

Posted on October 02, 2016 by

The starting pistol hasn’t actually been fired on the two-year Brexit process yet, but now we have a clear statement of when it will be: this morning on The Andrew Marr Show, the Prime Minister pledged that it would happen before the end of next March.

When she gave a speech to the Conservative conference later, Theresa May did even more than that. By the common consensus of the punditariat – whatever that’s worth these days – May’s message was that the UK was heading for the “hard” version of Brexit, with the single market sacrificed for control of borders.

(We might end up broke, in other words, but at least we’ll be good old British broke, with none of those awful smelly foreign Euro-Johnnies around to see it.)

And nobody was getting a sick note.

onenationtm

And for supporters of independence, that’s about as good as news gets.

Many gloating Unionists – and some of the more cool-headed Nats – have speculated that a hard Brexit is the worst option for the Yes movement, on the grounds that it greatly complicates the decision to be taken in any second indyref.

Their argument is basically that as Scotland does far more trade (somewhere roughly in the region of four times as much) with the rest of the UK than it does with the rest of Europe, it would face enormous risk in protecting that trade should it seek to throw in its lot with Europe rather than an isolated Britain, because the EU doesn’t allow member countries to conduct trade deals unilaterally with outside parties.

But that’s a somewhat curious position, because the entire point of the two years that would follow the invoking of Article 50 is to do that deal. Should a second indyref be scheduled for spring 2019 – as we posited just a couple of weeks ago – as a sort of last-chance escape clause for a Scotland that voted to stay in two unions but now has to pick its favourite, then it would be a choice between two known situations.

Because if an independent Scotland was going to be staying in the EU, then the trade deal with the rUK would already be in place, because the EU would just have negotiated it for us.

And if – as is now the prevailing wisdom – that deal turned out to be basically “Bend over, Britain, this is going to hurt you a lot more than it hurts us”, then the economic arguments in favour of independence would be the strongest they’re ever likely to be in the lifetime of anyone reading this site.

(The downside of a hard Brexit focused on immigration controls, obviously, would be the presumption of border posts between England and Scotland, a very unpopular idea. But the Tories have repeatedly insisted that they intend to keep the Irish border a free and open one, and in those circumstances it’s almost impossible to create a sellable political case for Scotland being treated differently. Of course, they could be lying about Ireland, but either way we’ll know by 2019.)

The technical difficulties of ensuring that an independent Scotland WOULD be staying in the EU, of course, can’t be dismissed with an airy wave. The EU’s protocols don’t allow for formal negotiations while Scotland remains part of the UK.

But if anything characterises the way the EU does business it’s pragmatism, and if both the EU and Scotland wanted Scotland to stay in – and for that fact to be known at the time of the referendum – then that’s what would happen.

(And it WOULD be what they’d both want, because the SNP will still be the Scottish Government and Holyrood still has a clear majority of pro-indy, pro-EU votes.)

Nor can we complacently assume that Yes 2019 would be a slam-dunk. The problem of the Yes side’s awkward squad who also voted Leave is one that looms large. But again, by 2019, with a brutally punitive Brexit deal on the table, staying with Brussels might come to look very much the lesser of two evils.

This site remains of the view that it’s simply not credible for Brexit to happen without a second indyref. Two conflicting votes in Scotland – to stay in the UK, and by a far bigger margin to stay in the EU – are a circle of contradiction which cannot otherwise be politically squared. (And fighting for Scottish independence from outside the EU is a doomed project. We might as well give up at that point.)

There are a great many unknowns on the path ahead. But it’s a universally-accepted view within the media – which is, as we know, very far from meaning it’s actually true – that the economy, far above all other concerns, was the overwhelming weakness in the Yes case and the primary reason for its defeat.

If that’s accurate, then the second referendum will be a very different game indeed. If Brexit is to be hard, then so will be the argument for the UK. The No camp’s deadliest weapon just changed hands.

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jimnarlene

Tick tock, as they say; the countdown has begun.

brian lucey

From the outside looking into the UK, as an Irish and European person, with a PhD from Stirling. several things strike me about the Scottish situations

a) Theres an apparent unwillingness to accept that independence may well come at a cost, and that cost is upfront.

b) If the SNP REALLY wants independence, then call an election, stand on a “we will declare UDI” platform and see. In other words, move parliament to a scottish constitutional convention and move on with it.

c) An independent scotland outside the EU will have to come in. A scotland that becomes independent while still a part of the EU (Thats before 1/4/2019 it seems) has a decent chance of staying in the EU

d) new entrants must accept the Euro. If your a big state like Sweden or Poland you can engineer technical reasons to “fail’ the tests. Scotland wont be big. So you will be Euro bound. That answers your currency question

I wish Scotland well. my personal view, and my view as a professor of finance and economics, is that an independent scotland in the EU will be less worse off than a region of a brexited UK.

rmfbrown

In many respects, we should be thanking the Prime Minister for the clarity, because now, as you say, everybody has to choose their favourite union.

The entertainment will be provided by Labour’s North British branch office, as they tie themselves in knots over this.

I fully expect to see a few Labour grandees come over to the independence side.

It’s independence or bust now for Scottish Labour…

heedtracker

Sometimes the biggest change presents the biggest opportunity.

maureen

Pretty much either or, make your mind up time. It’s not a hard decision to make.

Rock

“The EU’s protocols don’t allow for formal negotiations while Scotland remains part of the UK.”

In my view, Scotland should be fully independent by 31st December 2017 to get the best possible terms out of both the rUK and the EU.

Onwards

“The problem of the Yes voters who also voted Leave is one that looms large”

This could be solved with a double question.

1. Should Scotland be a sovereign nation state? YES/NO
2. Should we be part of the EU. YES/NO

Otherwise we are fighting a battle on 2 fronts.
I want to remain in Europe, but a referendum promising to automatically rejoin will be hard to win when a million Scots voted to leave.

heedtracker

brian lucey, for the holder of a uni of Stirling doctorate, your grammar’s is as bad as your economic forcasterising.

Angus Anderson

Bit of a dilemma for Ms Dugdale and Mr Rennie now. Sell a hard Brexit or a complete u-turn.

Lollysmum

Interesting times ahead for all of us.

handclapping

All we have to do is make Brexit seem a lot worse than Indy and we are home and dry.

Having lived in a Britain outside the EU and with no oil, I can affirm we will have history on our side to shew the chaos a hard Brexit would lead to, the dead unburied, electricity rationing, inflation at 22%, which we can contrast with a more optimistic picture of us in charge of our own destiny.

As someone once said “Bring it on!”

Chitterinlicht

Its coming.

Last chance for me i am afraid to see a Scotland free from Westminster.

Staying in EU free from UK is best option for Scotland as Wings absolutely nail on the head that a trade deal will already be in place. Rest of negotiations will be interesting to put it mildy but doable like any divorce. The economic position will be more certain then it up to us

Alex Salmond stating late 2018 for next #indyref, Wings spring 2019.

It will be between these dates that is for sure.

Lets get ready.

Dan Dare

Around £20bn of the £48.4bn of trade to rUK is hydrocarbon products which the rUK would likely continue to purchase as it is cheaper to continue to buy product locally than ship coarser product from further away.
This means in effect that the trade in other non-hydrocarbon based product is only up to twice the value of EU trade. Taking the fact that much of the trade would still require to be dealt with, the rUK would in all likelihood still purchase those as well, as these include water, electricity, whisky and foodstuffs.
After those items, the actual trade level is on a par with EU volumes at risk….

Alastair Wright

From a personal perspective, I can now look forward to the possibility that there won’t be any ‘full English breakfast’ on the Med holiday.

Willie Belford

Brian Lucey the Scottish Government cannot simply call an election as we have fixed term parliaments, normally four years, but this one is for five years to prevent Holyrood and Wesrminster elections being contemporaneous.

So the earliest the SNP could stand on a UDI platform would be 2021, too late to retain EU membership.

brian lucey

heedtracker
Its in economics, not belle lettres . As a proud Irish man I refuse to bow the knee to english rules… 🙂
Why do you consider my forecasting to be off?

Rock

brian lucey,

” d) new entrants must accept the Euro. If your a big state like Sweden or Poland you can engineer technical reasons to “fail’ the tests. Scotland wont be big. So you will be Euro bound. That answers your currency question”

“my view as a professor of finance and economics”

If I remember right, The Rev. Stuart Campbell has stated many times that the EU cannot force any member to join the ERM.

Without joining the ERM, you cannot adopt the Euro.

Your statement that “new entrants must accept the Euro” therefore seems false.

Perhaps you could clarify.

jimnarlene

I’m no economics expert, but no nation can be forced to use the Euro, regardless their size or influence.

bobajock

Cant wait for work tomorrow. Many have been spinning on the not quite Brexit pinhead stating that they will wait until its announced formally.

Pop. Its gone. Watch the finance sector freak out at hard brexit. We have already purchased office space in Frankfurt. 50% EU (non UK) staff can move almost instantly. The rest easily.

Me. Stuck till the end, or saved by Scottish EU passport.

Bill McDermott

# I understood that in adopting the euro you had to have a sovereign currency for two years and even then your deficit would feature in the deliberation. Sweden hasn’t adopted the euro because that second consideration is voluntary.

On a separate issue over the possibility of a hard border, I could live with that, since it would be little different from let’s say the Spanish/Gibraltar situation. All you need is a lot of tollbooths. In any case that would not be our worry. That would be a matter for Westminster in their determination to ‘take back control’ of their borders.

I would have thought also that it would have zero support from all the hauliers in England.

IainC

I’d be interested to know how many of the Scots who voted to leave, particularly those who also voted yes, feel that they are getting what they voted for. For me, Indyref2 is about which union we want to be a part of, nothing else. Isolation is not a serious option, although others may differ. Interesting times.

galamcennalath

One aspect of Brexit, which the Tories’ sense of entitlement and exceptionalism doesn’t allow them to consider, is the benefits to the EU of a hard exit. The result will be additional costs for trading with the UK, yes, however this can be offset against the gains of manufacturing and financial companies leaving the UK to move into the EU.

Financial services in London are worth a fortune in tax. If half of this moves to Dublin, or Frankfurt, or Edinburgh, it will be a nice boost to the EU. Similarly if car production relocates.

The EU may want to punish the UK to set an example showing leaving causes pain. They may also see it as an opportunity to poach economic activity!

As all the realities of Brexit become apparent, it should be obvious that being part of the crumbling UK is definitely the poorer choice.

handclapping

You’ve got more chance of winning every lottery on Earth simultaneously while being struck by lightning and a meteor.
I’ve heard of a phyrric victory; do you have a shrthand name for that sort of luck?

Giesabrek

Sorry Brian Lucey, while I agree with your first 3 points, point D regarding “big states like Sweden and Poland” not needing to adopt the Euro, Sweden has the mighty big population of 9.53 million, not even double Scotland’s population.

Granted Poland’s population is far larger at 38 million but it doesn’t detract from the fact that Sweden, as well as Denmark (popln 5.64 million, incredibly close to Scotland’s), are not in the Euro and can remain so indefinitely.

Tricx

Won’t the grand repeal act and article 50 once triggered , not end the union ?? Meaning no need for Indyref2 and Scotland being Independent in early 2017 .

Taranaich

Their argument is basically that as Scotland does far more trade (somewhere roughly in the region of four times as much) with the rest of the UK than it does with the rest of Europe

Their argument is also a complete nonsense for another reason – because Scotland does not trade with anyone at present. Trade is reserved to Westminster, ergo international trading is dealt with on a UK level. You don’t call a subsidiary a trading partner.

It’s another one of those sleights-of-hand British Nationalists use to fool people into thinking the UK is an equitable partnership, even as our Prime Minister explicitly refers to the UK as a “sovereign and independent country.”

Adrian B

UDI = Umpteen Daft Imperialists

Derek B

This is a good analysis of the situation. If I had one issue it would be that spring 2019 may be too soon for the true horrors of a hard brexit to have been realised.

I was Yes/Leave. While I can only speak for myself, I don’t think that voters like me represent as big a problem as some might think. Why? Indy trumps Leave is why.

I’d settle for the chance, and it’d be no more than that, to try and reform the EU from within rather than be trapped in a free marketeers wet dream of a post Brexit UK.

muttley79

At this point I feel I have to be honest and admit I really, really did not want another independence referendum so soon after September 2014. The economic case was just not convincing at all. Brexit and its repercussions obviously changes things dramatically, but I am afraid to say I believe there are still major issues to address, currency, the collapse of the oil price, pensions etc.

It is going to be a big risk to go for another independence referendum, if we lose there will be no further independence referendum either a) for a very long time, or b) there will never be another one. It is that important and serious. There will be no margin for error whatsoever. It will be do or die in a political sense.

Andy Ellis

Absolutely agree with Stu’s take on this. The SG and SNP can and must begin preparations to ensure that indyref2 takes place in a timescale which allows seamless entry into the EU. This presupposes intensive work, and a clear statement (in my view quickly) that the eventual brexit deal, whatever it is, can and will be validated via indyref2 in 2019 either before or close to the “leave” date. A Yes vote will be taken asa mandate for both independence and remaining within the EU. It cannot be outwith the ken of man to have such a seamless or fast track entry pre-agreed with the the EU; as an institution they have zero interest in turning Scotland away, or making continued Scottish membership an painless as possible.

I’d also take issue with Brian Lucey’s point (d) above. Scotland will be in the same position as Sweden, or indeed any other new entrant vis-a-vis the Euro. There is no compulsion involved in membership, whatever the abstract commitment to joining at some undefined point in the future is. Any state simply needs to deliberately fail to meet ERM criteria on an ongoing basis. there is no desire or need for Scotland to be Euro bound in any timescale that needs bother us for the purposes of brexit or indyref2.

We have (at most) two and a half years to make a better fist of the Yes case than was made for 2014. We need to make every single day count, and the SG & SNP need to step up to the plate and be quite clear; we WILL NOT be dictated to, we WILL NOT be taken out of the EU against our will, and we WILL NOT accept any attempt by Westminster to stop indyref2.

galamcennalath

Which would you prefer?

1. iScotland using the Euro.

or

2. Remain inside a totally fcked up UK.

No brainier for me.

The reality will most likely be iScotland using our own Scottish currency,

brian lucey

Stuart
Accession to the Euro is mandatory
Accession to the ERM2 is voluntary
This is how the European system works , by fudge.

Scotlands currency choices are
a) Sterling – depreciation and no control over monetary policy.
b) Poond or whatever – worse depreciaton but control over mn pol
c) Euro – appreciation, no control over MP.

In essence choose what part of the impossible trilemma you want to lose control over : exchange rates, capital flows or monetary policy . You cant have it all. Most of the debate has focused on the exchange rate, and to some extent the monetary policy, when its the capital flows that will be the real danger.

As I say, I wish you well.

heedtracker

brian lucey says:
2 October, 2016 at 8:25 pm
heedtracker
Its in economics, not belle lettres . As a proud Irish man I refuse to bow the knee to english rules… ?
Why do you consider my forecasting to be off?

Well you need to be more specific as to why, “scotland in the EU will be less worse off than a region of a brexited UK..” Its rather important to get things thrashed out. Going by GERS and yoon culture led by the BBC, Scotland’s got a £15bn black hole deficit that’s made the region’s economics worse than poor Greece.

Economically, soft Brexit or a fudged Brexit is going probably not to happen now. So Scots have to know the how and why the EU is better for them than the UK, especially the very plump and content Scots middle class.

Part of May’s speech, lifted from Spectator

‘But we will seek the best deal possible as we negotiate a new agreement with the European Union.

I want that deal to reflect the kind of mature, co-operative relationship that close friends and allies enjoy.

I want it to include cooperation on law enforcement and counter-terrorism work.

I want it to involve free trade, in goods and services.

I want it to give British companies the maximum freedom to trade with and operate in the Single Market – and let European businesses do the same here.

But let me be clear. We are not leaving the European Union only to give up control of immigration again. And we are not leaving only to return to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.’

Got that. Its immigration control or nothing. Well not nothing, UKIP is coming. And UKIP can change everything in England. Look at what the SNP have done. Massed ranks of Westminster shire tories no longer stare across at massed ranks of SLabour slow eyed pot bellies.

Also, it’s you’re not your, for you are:D

Clootie

@Brian Lucey

…a strange statement statement for a PhD in finance and economics …” That Independence will come at an up front cost”. Very strange to make such an assertion without framing e.g. An initial cost / a sustained cost / a net gain over a longer period.
However when b) came in with the UDI call a little voice screamed troll.

I very much doubt an individual who studied to PhD standard in any subject would frame his observation as you have.

brian lucey

Andy Ellis
“There is no compulsion involved in membership, whatever the abstract commitment to joining at some undefined point in the future is.”
Nobody suggests compulsion. But the Maastricht treaty does make it a requirement. Here’s the question – say an independent scotland happens in late 2017, and is greeted warmly within the EU. BUT, the price, imagine, is accession to the Euro on an accelerated pace.. What then? FWIW the euro is a botched hames of a system. But if it were to become the price to be in the EU…
IMHO as an outside observer these are the kinds of questions I dont really see being raised in the debate. Maybe they are but…

brian lucey

Glesabrek
Denmark and Sweden negotiated those WITHIN the EU as a treaty annex. Scotland would be OUTSIDE seeking to come in.
You wont have any card to play much beyond “oh god please save us” . That may come at a price. Decide early what is the maximum price to pay for independence. Thats the essence of my points. Because, there is a price. Theres always a price.

Yesitis

The next few months are going to be very interesting. It`s an increasingly ugly mess but I can`t help but think our hopelessly inept MSM will muddy the waters rather than hold the one`s who got us into the mess to account.

galamcennalath

IMO it’s not just timing of IndyRef2 and Indy in relation to the Brexit timetable, the two parallel constitutional process might be closely coupled.

After all, IndyRef2 will be about EU citizens in part of the EU exercising their democratic right to remain in the EU as a member state. And possibly as a continuing member state.

While the EU won’t interfere in a member’s internal affairs, that isn’t really what is developing here.

I expect the EU to be more than just interested in events in Scotland. If we achieve a Yes vote prior to Brexit completion, then I would expect our Indy negotiations and rUK’s Brexit negotiations to have full EU involvement and to effectively have one integrated solution.

In other words, I expect the EU to look after its citizens.

Jack Collatin

Yet there will be Loon Yoons attempting to argue that England’s Green and Pleasant Land would stop trading with Scotland out of badness when we hold a second Independence Referendum.
Now that we know the date for England’s Jonesborough mass suicide, I agree Stu; by spring ’19, we’ll still be in the EU and on returning a Yes vote this time, as a self governing member state.
Nissan Toyota Jaguar Land Rover will migrate North for starters. Edinburgh will join Dublin and Frankfurt in welcoming the 70,000 finance and banking staff who will Brexit London.
The Indyref should wait until we can see the whites of their eyes. Trading tariffs, borders, no free movement to Europe to take up a job, paying for holiday visas, wine prices up, and so on. Project Truth. Vote NO this time and live under the isolated wing of an English Tory government for a lifetime.
The shoe is indeed on the other foot.

Anagach

“brian lucey says:

d) new entrants must accept the Euro. If your a big state like Sweden or Poland you can engineer technical reasons to “fail’ the tests. Scotland wont be big. So you will be Euro bound. That answers your currency question”

A PhD you say. Well who am I to argue.

New entrants must sign up to join the Euro at some point in the future. That point is up to the joining country. So yes Euro bound, sometime between joining and the end of the Universe.

John O

Another great clear well written piece, I found this writen on the subject, may be worth a read.

link to tinyurl.com

ScottieDog

im pretty sure that there is no requirement for Scotland to adopt the euro. Of course the EU could decide to make this one of its criteria in accepting Scotland as one of its members. We don’t really know exactly what terms they will offer.

For my money, the EU needs all the good news stories it can get and for us a currency union is a very bad idea.

The other thing here is that there seems to be this perception of our fate being in the hands of either the neoliberal institutions of Brussels or those of London. The fact is, our economic potential is way more than the sum total of 5 million people. This is the very reason London will fight dirty to keep us in the union and I believe the reason that the the EU will be very keen to include Scotland.

The yoon press warned two years ago that an independent Scotland would be a threat to national security. Whilst that might be the case (if you see trident as part of that) the real worry in London is that a separate Scotland is a threat to their energy security. That is very real.

Scott Borthwick

I’m not sure the pro-Yes Leave voters are likely to be that big of a problem once the UK’s terrible leave deal is unveiled.

Long before the Brexit Referendum (and the Independence Referendum), I would have placed myself in that category. However, my reasoning was based on what potentially would have been best for a Scotland that was already independent. In short, EFTA membership. That shot is not on the board for a post-Brexit UK, so the sensible approach would be to take one issue at a time. Of course, we have to bear in mind that we are Scots, so the sensible approach eludes us often.

Robert Louis

So, now the game has changed, and it must be said the REV’s analysis above, is very helpful.

In what seems an effort to quell unrest within rabid anti EU Tory ranks, Theresa May has effectively played her hand early, both to the EU (who will be laughing their socks off) and the Scottish Government, who, like the EU, will tonight be laughing their socks off.

Make no mistake, this brexit, will be one enormous disaster for England and Wales, or, to adopt the seemingly perennial phraseology in use these days by brexiteers, it will be
‘THE GREAT BRITISH BREXIT DISASTER’.

I still find it hard to believe the UK Government is doing this, it is so freaking dumb, it beggars belief.

[…] Wings Over Scotland Waiting on the guns The starting pistol hasn’t actually been fired on the two-year Brexit process yet, […]

Edward Freeman

I disagree with Professor Lucey that Scotland would be forced to adopt the euro. My own interpretation is that, legally speaking, no country can be obliged to adopt the euro. To try to force it on Scotland when, as the Professor says, Poland hasn’t adopted it would hardly be equitable.

The other thing is that, if Scotland decides on independence before Brexit occurs, it would not have left the EU by that time and its relations with the EU would therefore continue to be governed by the treaties in place today between the UK and the EU (mutatis mutandis is the phrase that needs to be kept in mind). Scotland would therefore continue to benefit (?) from the same opt-outs that the UK currently has.

I have some expertise in the area of treaty law, as it was one of my specialisms as a UN translator.

tartanfever

Scotland’s current trade exports need to be understood.

Basically the UK has a horrible trade deficit because we have few exports (despite what you hear in the press). Our artificially inflated currency (which benefits the financiers in the city) makes our exports far too pricey.

Hence why many of Scotland’s exports stay within the UK. UK exports are currently getting a little boost because of the £ drop in value which make them cheaper to buy, but this doesn’t help the City of London.

Next time some unionist goes on about the apocalypse on Scotland’s exports if we became independent (like A. Massie esq) start asking some awkward questions about an over inflated currency we currently have and how that has demolished UK exports over the last 30 years in favour of a financial service industry that is about to come crashing down because of currency fears and the withdrawl of European Financial Passports.

An independent Scotland should look at it’s own currency but peg it to the euro, not the £. That is the bigger market we must concentrate on.

Artyhetty

T.May, now with her well paid advisers, she will be hedging her bets on getting out before another independence referendum can be finalised, wgatever that takes. Ok, she signs art50, then it’s 2 years to do a deal, but, could brexit be finalised sooner?

2019 seems a long way off, but if that is what it takes so be it. It’s like a game, slowly,slowly catchy monkey, ( if I have that right!) hopefully. A fabulous Scottish saying, that I only got to know about recently.

Meanwhile the Scotgov have their work cut out don’t they, keeping a breast of things, and running a country within UKokian constraints, very tough.

Ian Mackay

When the UK triggers Article 50 by March 2017 it effectively becomes an EU member state with no influence on the EU council – basically a member in name only to facilitate a UK v EU27 scenario in the withdrawal.

Article 50 clause 4:
… the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

My guess is that the EU27 would feel no obligation to prevent negotiation with the Scottish Govt. and that they could even make a formal decision to negotiate with Scotland over Westminster’s wishes.

Whether this is done formally or informally the EU will make sure that the Scottish Govt. has enough ‘meat on the bones’ to present to the Scottish people for indyref2.

Its in the EU’s interest for Scotland to remain a EU member. Imagine what a message that would send out to any exiteers around the EU; your country is at stake if you leave! Not too mention the international significance of the EU getting the golden goose of Scotland – and not the UK!

It would also show rUK in an extremely bad light – a backwards insular nation closing itself off from the world.

Giving Goose

Regarding those Yes’ers who voted exit the EU.
I can understand some of the thinking.
My own personal experience, from within a large non public sector employer in the Highlands, is that employees from Eastern Europe have been exploited as a source of high skills, low wage labour.

Those Eastern Euro employees were not employed through some sort of humanitarian goodwill on the part of the employer. No. It was to take advantage of low costs, pure and simple economic cynicism.

The alternative was to increase wages and attract in “native” labour. Wasn’t going to happen in a million years.

Result? Resentment.

Free movement has been exploited by big business. Of course it has and of course it has been used successfully to keep wage bills down.
I’m a Yes’er but the cynical use of free movement by employers has been noted by me and I was sufficiently close to the decision making process within an employer at the accession of Poland to see at first hand the thinking that lay behind the recruiting of Eastern Europeans.

Yes’ers who were nervous of free movement have legitimate concerns. Free movement has been misused by unscrupulous employers and if someone voted Leave on that basis then I understand.

Any future IndyRef will be vulnerable to that issue and the refreshed Yes movement needs to be smart when dealing with it. It’s a potential hot potato.

Robert Louis

Scotti Dog,

Read up on Euro entry, since you seem to misunderstand what is involved. As the Rev says to adopt the Euro a country must enter the ERM. ERM entry is not compulsory. Besides, it isn’t automatic, as certain economic criteria need met over a period of at least two years, so the EU can’t ‘force’ any country to join the Euro, it is just unionist mis informed rubbish to suggest they can or would.

Papadox

Westminster, ENGERLAND need Scotlands resources to use as calateral for all the money they require to print or borrow to keep their illusion of the world power. Scotland is far more important to ENGERLAND than it would like to admit. Hence the Establishment will use all resources in its “armoury” to subjugate and impoverish Scotland for their financial benefit. If they loose Scotland then they have lost all, and that ain’t going to be allowed to happen. Never get between London and their greed for someone else’s money. You might just become expendable. They know how to cause real trouble and blame the victim for it. They wrote the rule book.

Andy Ellis

@ Brian Lucey

Sorry Bri, but it doesn’t take my PhD in International Relations from St Andrews (sorry, couldn’t resist that given the preceding posts! 🙂 ) to discern the smell of bullshit when it splats into BTL comments.

The idea that the EU won’t welcome Scotland verges on the bizarre. If nothing else it will be one in the eye for the Brits, which given current mood music in Brussels can’t be under-estimated. The EU isn’t going to stand on ceremony and insist the Scots, who ARE ALREADY WITHIN THE EU, be treated the same way as Croatia or Serbia. That line of reasoning might work on Daily Heil readers, but it makes any reasonable commentators roll their eyes at its inanity.

As Stu so rightly said, however hard the potential economic outcomes are (and they are unpredictable either way) they only for 1 aspect of the overall indyref/brexit situation, and the Britnats basically just shot their own fox. They can’t try to paint indy as a huge gamble and economic suicide with a straight face, when trying to sell us the benefits of the brexiteer wet dream of the UK as a frigid version of Singapore.

Liz g

Giesabrek @ 8.32.
Why on earth would you agree with a UDI ?
We already have a clear mandate to go down the referendum route.
Almost every country on the planet recognise the democratic will of the people, and at least publicly pay’s lip service to it’s legitimacy.

So it would be utterly stupid to forgo the chance to achieve our Independence with the rest of the world having no choice but to recognise it.

The UDI route would create a debate where none needs to happen,and opens up a space for other countries to involve themselves.
And before you say they did last time,that was a very limited set of sound bite’s for the media,always caveated with “it was a matter for the Scottish People”, that’s because they were talking about a Vote and could not be seen to deny democracy.

UDI is a whole other matter in regards to how other countries will respond,its shit we not only do not want but at this point in time is totally unnecessary to have to deal with.

Don’t you think we should take what we have a achieved so far and run with it?

heedtracker

Life goes on in Europe. Chief EU negotiator on facebook, or Torygraph/Farage call him the “fanatic.” Catchy.

Guy Verhofstadt
55 mins ·
I welcome the announcement made by Theresa May. It is essential for the EU that #Brexit is completed ahead of the European elections in 2019.

link to archive.is

Capella

Suddenly I feel optimistic. If we miss this opportunity it will be so much harder in a Westminster ruled UK with no human rights. BREXIT forces the waverers to decide which way to jump.

As they hover – nose pressed against the glass – waiting for morsels from the Tory high table, we need to fund raise. There will be a lot of Wee Coloured Books needed soon, and polling.

A McWilliam

@Brian Lucey “There’s an apparent unwillingness to accept that independence may well come at a cost, and that cost is upfront.”

Yep. Any honest economic case for independence has to accept that it comes with (significant) short term pain for long-term gain. The problem is that most people discount the long-term.

If the SG repeat the indyref1 strategy (i.e independence will be a costless and quick transition)soft no voters won’t believe it and will vote no again.

Personally I would like to see the SNP talk up the non-economic benefits and risks, which are much less beyond question (i.e moving away from the closed minded and illiberal track the uk is heading). Not sure how much that resonates with voters however.

Tricx

You said no without any explaination . Does this not change thngs –

“Although no Scottish court has yet openly questioned the validity of an Act of Parliament, certain judges have raised the possibility. Thus, in MacCormick v. Lord Advocate, the Lord President (Lord Cooper) stated that “the principle of the unlimited sovereignty of Parliament is a distinctively English principle which has no counterpart in Scottish Constitutional Law”, and that legislation contrary to the Act of Union would not necessarily be regarded as constitutionally valid. Also, in Gibson v Lord Advocate, Lord Keith was circumspect about how Scottish courts would deal with an Act, which would substantially alter or negate the essential provisions of the 1707 Act .

Scott Borthwick

brian lucey says:
2 October, 2016 at 8:51 pm

Glesabrek
Denmark and Sweden negotiated those WITHIN the EU as a treaty annex. Scotland would be OUTSIDE seeking to come in.
You wont have any card to play much beyond “oh god please save us” . That may come at a price. Decide early what is the maximum price to pay for independence. Thats the essence of my points. Because, there is a price. Theres always a price.

We

Lawrence

I don’t know why you are assuming Scotland will have to reapply to be a member of the EU?
As you say the EU has no protocol for our situation, but it does have a process and our first port of call will be the European Courts and it will be European Judges that will determine Scotlands membership, no reapplication required as under already international Ordinary Contract Law Scotland can modify our current contract to remove the rUK also the court will have to determine if the EU can abandon 5 million already EU citizens? These 2 points of law that the European Courts will have to adjudicate on and puts Scotland in a very strong position with a very strong case, no reapplication required, no permission from any member state required just a judicial review of international law and EU responsibility to it’s citizens and a test of it’s own core principles

muttley79

@Papadox

We all know that the British state does not want to lose Scotland though. Do you think independence or even campaigning for it is pointless, because that is the logic of your post?

Blackhack

This mad preoccupation with currency still has me baffled…Does it really matter what out unit of currency is called, whether it be the pound, the euro, the smackaroonie, or jellie jars, as long as the value of the currency and it’s buying power stays the same they can call it whatever they want….

yesindyref2

@Brian Lucey
Presuming this is your blog, it’s interesting and worth reading:

link to brianmlucey.wordpress.com

You will of couse get jumped on for the euro thing and in fairness Scotland would get a derogation from the Euro because we aren’t ready, and need ERM2, and it’s incredibly unlikely there would be a time limit on it. In other words, we would be just like Sweden.

But please continue to post here! It gives a different and external perspective.

Big Jock

The referendum must happen next year, if we wish to apply to Eu from within. It will take 2 years to disentangle from the UK and secure new status in the EU. So if the referendum is Sept 2017 we would be indi by Late summer 19. If the referendum is Sept 2018. The UK would have us half way out the door and part disentangled.

It would mean indi could not really happen for at least a year after referendum at best. The whole system in Scotland would have been fucked up by the Tories. We cannot allow Brexit to happen and then have a referendum. We must set a date for referendum by March 17 and hold the referendum next autumn.

Scott Borthwick

brian lucey says:
2 October, 2016 at 8:51 pm

“You wont have any card to play much beyond “oh god please save us” . That may come at a price. Decide early what is the maximum price to pay for independence. Thats the essence of my points. Because, there is a price. Theres always a price.”

We have no card to play other than continued access to fishing grounds (very significant to our good friends in Galicia), renewables potential and the fact that we are already EU citizens and they will not want to remove that from us arbitrarily. Given the ‘Golden goose’ status of Scotland (as coined by another commenter tonight) why do you think Theresa’s major efforts today were in trying to enforce the view that we are an indivisible, unitary state?

heedtracker

Chingford Strangler’s over excited Torygraph style by Teresa again, co written by St Thatcher RIP, in her pyramid and Jeremy Clarkson.

link to archive.is

EU’s stuffed with lefty fascists and they need their arse kicked…

“That, I pointed out was exactly what fighter pilots do. In 1940 our Spitfire and Hurricane pilots did not give safe passage to German bombers which had dropped their bombs and expended their ammunition, as they sped back to refuel and re-arm. They closed from astern and shot them down. She seemed shocked at such brutality!, But then she had not been bombed as my generation had been,

That apart I find it alarming that in a very dangerous world we spend too little on defence and too much on overseas aid, which is often siphoned off in maladministration and corruption. “

heedtracker

Taste the fudge, tory BBC style?

Andrew Neil ?@afneil 3h3 hours ago
Andrew Neil Retweeted Laura Kuenssberg
They’re staking out an initial maximalist position, allowing French and Germans to say they’ve knocked us back in their elections.Andrew Neil added,

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
@afneil indeed so, definitely v hard to imagine how we can have full single market access after May’s speech, but sources deny that’s fixed

Tamas Marcuis

That figure for trade with the UK needs to be examined.
It just does not add up with other trade figures released by the UK government. Particularly the percentage of UK exports sourced in Scotland.

From my own experience the UK government’s method of tracking exports “Port of Exit”, only records exports directly leaving Scotland. They just deducted that from Scotland’s total estimated exports and low and behold we have the figure they have been using to beat YES supporters with for the last few years.

Port of Exit takes zero account of what just passes, perhaps via a middleman, through England and leaves from an English port. It then miraculously becomes UK/English exports.

There has to be a better more accurate estimate because that figure currently used does not bear up to scrutiny.

Legerwood

Adopting the Euro.

An independent Scotland would probably have to make a commitment to adopting the Euro as any new applicant does BUT that does not mean that you make the commitment on the Tuesday and start using it on the Wednesday.

Precedents, more relevant than Sweden, are Chzech Republic and Hungary. Both committed to join the Euro when they applied for membership of the EU. Both gave target dates, long past, for introducing it. Both have put the adoption of the Euro on hold seemingly indefinitely.

muttley79

@Blackhack

Yes, the currency issue matters a hell of a lot. Why else do you think Darling and Osborne went on and on about it in 2014? They know it was our weakest spot and that is why it was targeted so effectively. Diehard Yes supporters might like to deny it but that was the case. If you want confirmation watch the first Salmond v Darling debate.

yesindyref2

@brian lucey
You certainly stirred things up!

However, whether in or out of the EU becoming a member, there is one vital thing which would get in the way of Scotland joining the Euro, even if we wanted to, and that’s the SGP. There are apparently moves to get rid of it, or modify it, but right now it exists, and for eurozone members there are sanctions that are more likely to be applied, tahn for those outside. That’s a 60% debt to GDP which, who knows, Scotland might qualify because we don;t know yet the result of Indy negotiations with the rUK.

But more important than that for us is the 3% deficit target, and even if our GERS is not really that illustrative, it’s pretty certain we don’t meet it.

As non-eurozone members all we need is an acceptable Medium-Term Budgetary Objective (MTO) to reduce that deficit to the desired 3%. What is practcially certain though is that Scotland would not be ALLOWED in the eurozone until we had achieved that. And after taht no EU member state can be forced into the ERM2 as there are potentially economy damaging consequences as the UK found out back in the 90s.

By the way, we’re (rightly) a suspicious lot, could I suggest you put a message on your wordpress blog, something like “Hello Wings Over Scotland”? Thanks!

Papadox

Muttley79 9:26pm

Just maybe the British state will do all in its power to prevent Scotland from leaving ENGERLANDS
“.Protection”. Maybe I fear that HMG is about to turn its state controlled Trouble makers loose. Or maybe good old Blighty wouldn’t think if such a thing, heaven forbid.

Dave

Just a thought, it may be nothing but if Nissan, Honda, Toyota and Jaguar-Landrover want to leave because of Full English would it not make sense for them to move to independent Scotland within the EU and carry on in an English speaking environment and the single market? Would certainly give Scotland an economic boost if they did. Perhaps other companies would follow suit – BAe-Airbus to Prestwick. Play our cards right and it may be possible.

Anyway just a thought.

muttley79

@Papadox

I am still not really sure what you are trying to say. We want independence, we are going to try our best to achieve it. Why bring up potential trouble, what purpose does that achieve?

Some people were bringing up all this stuff before the first independence referendum, and it passed off peacefully. The loons in George Square turned up the day after the vote. I am going to completely ignore anymore of these posts, along the lines of the British state will never allow it, they are pointless, a waste of time, and demotivating in the extreme.

johnny rudkin

theresa may has come out with the ground rules scotland you will do as you are told no ifs or buts westminster are negotiating for Briton and that means scotland so what westminster says scotland will obey

brian lucey

‘Absolutely none of that is happening’
What if it does? Anyhow, I remain in the EU, and feel desperately sorry for you lot. But, its in your hands. Play your few cards right and you migh come out battered and bruised but dont engage in wishful thinking, dont think the EU is a nirvana of Scotophiles waiting to embrace you on your terms, and dont give up hope.

HandandShrimp

In 1920 close to 90% of Ireland’s trade was with the rUK. These days it is about 12%. However, Ireland’s overall trade has risen considerably since those days and they have a trade surplus. The “half our trade is with rUK” soundbite may sound significant but trading patterns change and they may well change for the better.

The plus side of May’s hard Brexit decision is that in appeasing her Brexiteers on immigration she is taking the UK on a bumpy economic path. It will be a hell of a lot easier to articulate what that means than a soft Brexit which on face value might have looked very much like soft “stay in the EU” and therefore very difficult to highlight where the disadvantages are.

Also May is making placatory noises on workers rights etc while Grayling is merrily saying that they will ditch those. We know exactly how keen the Tories are on rights for ordinary working people particularly at a time the truth starts to come to light on things like Orgreave.

Yes Project Fear will be bang on about borders and Johnny Foreigner although quite what they will say about trade is anyone’s guess. They may be lying about Ireland but if they are that will be another act of wilful sabotage to add to the Tories list.

Ian Brotherhood

Adopting the Euro might make it easier to assuage fears of the elderly re pensions etc –

If it has to be explained to them that they’ll still be getting the same pension, but it’ll be ‘in Euros’, that lessens effectiveness of the fear generated by ‘You won’t be getting your British pension any more…’

I’ve expressed that clumsily, but you get the gist eh?

🙂

IMO, this is the best news we’ve had in ages – May has tried to play a card she simply doesn’t have, and inadvertently given us a time frame to work with. It’s nebulous, aye, but it’s more than we had yesterday.

Dave McEwan Hill

heedtracker at 8.19

But not as bad as your spelling and punctuation.

Legerwood

One of the arguments employed by the Better Together side against independence, and still in use, concerning the fact that Scotland does more trade with England than with Europe so why risk this by becoming independent has now been shot down by the hard Brexit crew. Although they may not realise it yet.

The UK’s exports to Europe amount to some £200 billion. with the USA it is around £100 billion and with China around £26 billion – according to a news report last week.

A hard Brexit puts this EU trade at risk but the Brexiteers seem to think this is a price worth paying to become once more a ‘fully independent sovereign nation’.

‘Sauce’, ‘goose’ and ‘gander’ – frame sentence accordingly.

Probably have not expressed this very well but not for the first time the BT side are deploying contradictory arguments applying to Scotland what they do not apply to themselves and the Brexit position.

brian lucey

yesindyref2
Stirring things is good. As I say, I have no skin in the game. For me, a Scotland staying in the UK is optimal as it removes a similar level national competitor from the FDI/Europot game.

Theres a whole pile of delusion floating round the place. I wish scotland well. It wont be well served by anything but cleareyed and cold calculation of the costs (yep, them) and benefits of independence. Your going to get hit, hard, whatever you do.

Enjoy the next two years. For us, in Ireland, the most pressing issue is how destabilised will be NornIron. Most business people there are pretty aghast. Talk to some chamber of commerce reps. Statements like “why should I stay here when I can move the factory/distribution center/call center/ etc five miles down the road and stay in the EU” are not rare. A destabilised NI = a greater danger of a return to the violence. In that context, your troubles are minor.

Richardinho

The problem I have with the idea of a second referendum being likely is that it appears to be entirely in the gift of the Uk government. Most likely they will simply continue saying ‘no’ to any proposal the Scottish Government comes up with. I have difficulty seeing a path to a referendum in these circumstances. Can someone help me out here?

Papadox

@muttley79

Read your history of the British empire and see how the empire was obtained, policed and controlled by the great white queen and her governments. HMG has form with many countries. From the good old USA right up to Erin, Cyprus. Regards

the_drookit_dug

We often hear from unionists that Scotland does 4 times as much trade with England as it does with the EU, conveniently overlooking that Scotland actually purchases marginally more from England than England does from Scotland. The loss to English companies of this trade being threatened would not be inconsequential.

Capella

Comic relief. Bozo opens his mouth at Tory Conference and calls Africa a “country”. Sarah Palin once did the same to great hilarity.

Tory Conference still not mentioned on BBC home page. Is it a secret?

British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson refers to Africa as ‘that country’ (VIDEO) link to rt.com

Del

Over the last two years I’ve slowly changed from being a nationalist to something much more divisive.
As far as I’m concerned, Teresa May can FOAD. As the Conservatives at Westminster beat themselves into a Brexit frenzy, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if some other nats no longer eschew violence.

muttley79

@Papadox

See my previous post.

t42

“if Nissan, Honda, Toyota and Jaguar-Landrover want to leave because of Full English would it not make sense for them to move to independent Scotland within the EU and carry on in an English speaking environment and the single market?”

nah..people speak English in other countries as well

yesindyref2

@Del
Great idea. Batter the batds, and lose the support of 90% of the YES movement. Whoooopy dooooppy dooo.

heedtracker

Dave McEwan Hill says:
2 October, 2016 at 10:02 pm
heedtracker at 8.19

But not as bad as your spelling and punctuation.

Me not a PHD Dave. You and details eh. Devil’s always in the detail Dave. Free advice.

gus1940

O/T

For the last week we have been swamped by our wonderful broadcast and print media with pictures of the Royal Visit to Canada.

What has struck me is that all the pictures are close-ups with no wide shots of crowds and on TV there is no sound of cheering thousands of admirers.

Could this possibly mean that interest in the visitors was somewhat less than our homegrown propaganda experts would have wanted?

jimnarlene

@Del, piss off and grow the fuck up.

Proud Cybernat

BREXIT flight control…

link to imgur.com

Jockanese Wind Talker

brian lucey says at 8:10 pm

You don’t do a nice line in Finance & Economic Graphs do you??

K1

Ye can fuck right off wi that attitude Del. Ain’t gonnae happen. If you want to ‘act out’ some latent violent fantasy don’t use our cause as an excuse to do so.

That’s your problem and yours alone. We don’t need ‘incitement’. We need engagement, cool heads and most of all intelligent discourse.

Check yersel’ pal.

Brian Powell

Now a couple of things to overcome:

To get this to as many people as possible.

To get past the Scottish situation of: ‘we’ won’t be allowed, will the Queen object, SNP, SNP, SNP, SNP..

Tricx

This is an interesting read

link to aberdeenunilaw.wordpress.com

X_Sticks

The blatancy which May dismissed Scotland with worries me. The “We voted as one United Kingdom to leave the EU, and we’ll leave it as one United Kingdom. There is no opt out from Brexit. And I will never allow divisive nationalists to undermine the precious Union between the four nations of our United Kingdom.” makes me think they (the tories & the british establishment) are up to something.

I think what worries me is that her Great Repeal of European law and its replacement with ‘british’ law would mean that as soon as brexit happens we (Scotland) would have no recourse to the European Court. I wonder if they are planning to announce a very rapid brexit so we have no time to run a referendum. If they did that our only legal recourse would be through firstly Scottish and then the Supreme Court in London. We could probably predict what the court finding would be.

Where would this scenario leave us? Appeal to the UN? UDI?

I hope someone can tell me this can’t happen.

rongorongo

It is going to be a big risk to go for another independence referendum, if we lose there will be no further independence referendum either a) for a very long time, or b) there will never be another one. It is that important and serious.
It will be an equally big risk for the unionists. Picture the awful thought of waking up on the morning after IndyRef2 to be on the losing side. That was painful in 2014 – but would be a whole lot worse given all the events since then. I predict that there will either be a rush of no voters heading south to England or of yes voters heading…anywhere. Ditto for the the associated businesses. Plus all the people from the rUK who would be attracted (by either outcome) to move here. It will indeed be crunch time.

yesindyref2

Okey-doke, quick check on Lucey’s twitter and I get this: “If scottish people dont vote for independence post #brexit then they will never. Either way, its is going to cost and cost big.”

Which is what he’s saying here. So he’s the genuine article. Another one is this:

I sense that #brexit means UK going to get cheesed, as @terryandrob coined – like getting creamed but is harder and lasts longer

Yes, seems likely.

Macart

Light the blue touch paper. 😉

cearc

May has to have some sort of trading arrangement with the EU in place when they leave, however unfavourable because they are dependent on electricity imports from France, Netherlands and of course, Scotland.

Electricity rationing, as per winter of discontent, would be a complete disaster nowadays and definitely not a vote winner.

I mean, what’s the use of knowing – from today’s Sunday Times – how to make Theresa May’s scones (from her mother’s recipe), if you can’t cook them.

defo

“British politics is over…”

Poultice on R4 earlier. Analysis (te he) ‘Tearing up the Politics textbook’

“Since 2015, a common political space does not exist…”

“Scotland is now too different from the rest of Great Britain…”

Never! John.

link to bbc.co.uk

Papadox

@x sticks 10:35pm

Think you are on to something, there is trouble coming courtesy of HMG. they don’t mess about when they are given the go ahead.

defo

Doh! 25 mins 22secs in.

Capella

“And I will never allow divisive nationalists to undermine the precious Union between the four nations of our United Kingdom.” 

She’s wrong there. As Mr Peffers has pointed out umpteen times, there are not four countries in the Union. There are only two – Scotland and England.

Scotland may decide that this Union is not precious at all. It is exploitative, destructive and stifling.

Dan Huil

brian phd

“An independent scotland outside the EU will have to come in.”

You mean Scotland will be forced by gunpoint to join? No? Seems like a strong hand for an independent Scotland’s EU negotiations if it sits back and waits. Same goes for NATO. phd? I wish you well.

I can just imagine James Connolly et al saying in 1916, “Lads. You do realize independence will mean an increase in income tax? Do we really want to do this?”

jimnarlene

Dan Hull says,

“I can just imagine James Connolly et al saying in 1916, “Lads. You do realize independence will mean an increase in income tax? Do we really want to do this?””

Nearly choked reading that…brilliant.

Jockanese Wind Talker

Scott Borthwick says at 9:32 pm

If Brexit happens and Scotland is stuck with rUK you can forget about continued access to fishing grounds for our good friends in Galicia.

The Tories will sell our fishing grounds out to the Chinese and there will be ‘boats on station’ fishing 24/7 with no employment law constraints/controls feeding large Klondikers like they do off the coasts of Africa etc.

Dan Huil

@Richardinho 10:10pm

The independence movement in Scotland gains considerable support because Westminster says no to IndyRef2. Scotland holds a referendum anyway. Scotland votes for independence. Scotland behaves like an independent nation [doesn’t need to declare UDI] regardless of England’s opinion.

Dan Huil

By their words and actions britnats in Westminster continue to break up their beloved united kingdom. We should let get on with it; their arrogance and ignorance towards Scotland will increase support for the independence movement in Scotland.

May’s speech today was a minor classic in exposing England’s natural contemptuousness for Scotland.

ed t head

I would rather use the euro than a £ that has abandoned the rest of europe, I thought that in indi ref 1 being outside europe wouyld lead to death in a void so what has changed. Scotland needs a direct ferry to europe so we can carry out trade with sane people and avoid all the westminster lies and spin.

Dr Jim

Perhaps we might look at who would support us this time but didn’t last time
Once the Unions realise what Theresa May and her chums are up to with the erosion of workers rights and pensions being slashed and the possible closures of Industries not vital to the Tories champagne lifestyle they might decide the future in the UK dont look bright and given the SNP record on keeping our businesses going could consider getting on the right horse this time

Because when the Unions start shouting about workers rights and future strikes (wee rhyme there) the media starts to pay attention
Maybe the Unions could start shouting now about the Clyde shipbuilding so’s the UK guv can show their hand by stuttering out some more shoddy lies

I’m quite sure by this time the FM has a queue of prominant businesses and foreign dignitaries to parade in front of the media and public and probably the odd ex bank of england boss as well so I think the support will be much better this time

Are you still allowed to play european football if you’re not in europe any more, (my ignorance on football matters here) will all those mightily expensive foreign players be allowed in to the new and improved racist UK or will they be unwanted immigrants not serving a useful purpose like fruit picking in the summertime

What about the costs and paperwork involved in just nipping off to the Costa’s for your wee fortnight in the sun
I’m being flippant but once the drawbacks and costs are made clear (although we can’t depend on the media to do that) these things may start to give ordinary folk pause to consider they can fly from Scotland with no barriers or extra costs all over the world and other places too because folk are basically lazy and don’t like fuss and change, but if we stick with the UK it’ll cost big time

All the arguments that were made against us last time are for us this time
I don’t believe the currency was a problem I believe it was used conveniently by the NO camp to scare folk like anything different was big scary spider money because a lot of folk don’t really understand currency (even though the morons use plastic) except for the elderly morons that is who think the bit of linen paper is really really important
and any other money is fake except when they whip it out to pay for their Cafe con leche por favor, or a wee Agua con gas, it seems to work OK then when they’re leaving the 20cent tip for the english breakfast and I should know I cooked enough of the F…..g Shit

Ian

It’s ironic that the UK EU ref result was split 52%-48%, exactly the same as the 1979 Scottish Devolution Referendum where 52% voted yes and 48% voted no. But because Labour introduced an amendment that mandated a pass vote requirement of 40% of all voters (so non voters were counted as no voters), the Scottish vote result changed from 52%-48% in favour of devolution, to 33%-31% in favour and since the 40% of all voters minimum wasn’t reached, the yes vote was switched to a no vote. So we didn’t get devolution although most people had voted for it.

Now if the same rule applied to the UK EU referendum, the 52%-48% would have changed to 37%-35% and it would have failed too.

This speaks volumes about the UK parties. Thanks Labour. For nothing.

Fireproofjim

Re Euro adoption
The following countries in the EU have kept their own currencies –
Poland, Sweden, Denmark, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia .
None of these have any plans to join the EURO and the talk of an independent Scotland being forced to do so is a myth.
Personally I don’t care what we use. Paper currency is only a means of exchange and any competent government could set up such a currency or use any other, including the pound, dollar or euro. You don’t need permission to use an internationally traded currency.
Some English towns have actually set up a town currency which traders in that town accept.
So as long as the currency is accepted, anything will do.
It is really a minor point in the Independence argument, but naturally people think it is important as everybody uses the pound.

Vambomarbeleye

I remember in the 1970s when we changed from LSD to the present currency. This was to bring us in line with Europe.
I then moved to Europe in 1975. Found myself of using French franks, Belgium franks, Dutch guilders, Deutschmarks and even BAFS. Sometimes travelling across borders you could have the lot in your breaks. So needed a strong belt and all the exchange rates.
Then came the euro. Suddenly you could travel across many country’s with one currency. Each member country’s coin can still be identified.
From the point of tourism I think it would be a benefit. No exchange rates. In fact you can spend euros in Scotland.
The only thing that would be a concern would who would be providing pensions. For instance military and war pensions. If it is Westminster the exchange rates could be detrimental.
When I travel around the world I always carry euros. Used to be American dollars.
So apart from the question of pensions. I have no problem with using a Scottish euro.
What do we put on it though. Queens head or saltire with lion rampant.

Robert Louis

Hmm. Judging by some comments above, we really do need to keep an eye out for agents provocateurs. Never forget, it has in the past been the weapon of choice by Westminster to thwart Scots desire for independence.

It has just occurred to me, as regards Brexit, I must say, if article 50 is happening by March, then if it were me, I’d do it (as it does not require a parliamentary debate or process) between Christmas and New year. Markets are closed, so no massive drops in currency, FTSE unaffected, most political journalists away on holiday, most MP’s on holiday too, and the general public distracted, and with very little actual news coverage over the christmas break.

BY january 3rd, the deed will be done. No panic, no market upsets or speculation. I could of course be wrong.

Stoker

Derek B wrote (@8:38pm)

“I was Yes/Leave. While I can only speak for myself, I don’t think that voters like me represent as big a problem as some might think. Why? Indy trumps Leave is why.”

Absolutely spot on, bud, we don’t!

I can assure anyone that as far as i’m concerned Indy is first, last and the only issue that matters. I’m leave as a preference but i’m more than happy to settle for Scotland in the EU.

It has always been my goal to help free my country from the rusting chains of old HMS Cesspit Britannia. I, like many, don’t do it for me, i do it for future generations.

I will be satisfied enough if i could go to the big furnace knowing i helped free my country from London’s thieving grip and played my part in handing over that potential to our aine kin.

It will be for future generations to take their country, Scotland, to whatever next level. I just want to be one of the millions responsible for creating the following scenario:

(((((KNOCK KNOCK)))))

Scotland: “WHO’S THERE?”

London: “EH..IT’S WESTMINSTER..HAVE YOU GOT A MINUTE?”

Scotland: “WHIT DAE YE WANT WE’RE BUSY!”

London: “WE’RE A BIT SKINT, CAN YOU SPARE A SUB UNTIL FRIDAY?”

Scotland: “NAW, WE GOAT RID AE OORS, NOO GTF YA SCROUNGERS!”

🙂 Goodnight troops!

Robert Peffers

@galamcennalath says: 2 October, 2016 at 8:43 pm:

” … The reality will most likely be iScotland using our own Scottish currency,”

Yes indeed and our own Scottish currency from before 1706/7 was the pound Sterling and was agreed as such by the treaty of Union. Into the bargain the Scottish
Pound Sterling, is indeed backed by actual cash money and it is held in a special vault in the Bank of England.

What’s more the Scottish Banknotes are indeed distinctly Scottish. On independence the BoE, (of which Scotland owns a negotiable share in), must stump up that cash in the BofE vault and either give a Scottish government a say in how the bofE is run or compensate us by buying for England the Scottish share of the BofE assets. There are no actual legal reason to claim that Scots share of the BofE should be on the basis of population proportions.

That share is our due because the BofE was nationalised by a UK government in 1946. Remember it is utter nonsense that there can be a United Kingdom when one of the only two partner kingdoms has left.

defo

“What do we put on it though. Queens head or saltire with lion rampant.”

A bust of his Eckness sporting the beret, surrounded by the latin phrasing. ‘GIRUY Ya Bass’.
Obvs.

Grouse Beater

The first group of major companies, banks included, that balk from financial constraints will turn on government.

Tory and Labour have been happy bedfellows to big business for over thirty years. The idea that global companies will suddenly become supine and roll over to the worst of Brexit, when so many either originate in Europe or have strong ties with Europe, is unimaginable.

The companies have real muscle. And they will use it.

Automobile manufacturers are only the first to demand answers. The City’s financial institutions will follow.

Graf Midgehunter

Mayday, Mayday:

I’m looking forward to welcoming many scots to Frankfurt who because of Brexit will need to settle here… 🙂

Furthermore I can start up the SNP branch “Frankfurt / Rheinmain”. Not just “Europe” as it is now on the membership cards.

We already have a scottish country dance club and our own pipe band, “The Clan Pipers”.

Robert Louis

Scotland ,as an equal partner in the treaty of union, does not ever need to ask Westminster’s permission for independence, but to undertake such a move, and for it to be recognised globally, a clear democratic mandate is needed. This mandate can come from an election or a referendum.

The treaty of union between Scotland and England is a bipartite treaty, and as such can be ended by either party. You need a clear democratic mandate or extreme circumstances closely followed by a full demonstrable democratic parliamentary election, in order to have the process recognised by other countries around the world.

Anyway, the point is, Westminster likes to assert that some kind of permission is required for a referendum or independence, but that is just baloney of the highest order.

Kestral

This time round the currency question is already decided enough for us not to make the shared currency mistake there is little choice it would have to be our own currency ie the Scottish pound

All printed Scottish notes are backed by Titon notes. Not sure but if we go for fiat currency then those titan notes will become the beginnings of our currency reserves

Dan Huil

Hard to imagine, I know, but stand by for even more too-wee-too-stupid-too-poor bullshit from the britnat media. Oh, and by the way, England still really really really loves us.

Suzanne

Not sure May can go for a fast Brexit. The Europeans are going to get on with their own business alongside having to deal with this Brexit mess, and I don’t get the impression that they’re willing to down tools and focus solely on what Westminster wants.

The complications are huge. Brexiteers might blithely chirp about the WTO and how it will be better than the EU but the WTO isn’t going to be plain sailing. That has its own tight tangle of knots to unpick and that’s going to take a heck of a time, especially as Engerlund doesn’t have anything like the expertise to unpick it.

Talk of UDI is suicidal. The very last thing we want is to trigger unrest or to create hard lines in Scotland and neither do we want to see violence, otherwise we’ll have a re-run of Churchill’s tanks in Glasgow and blood spilt on all sides. Anything like that plays directly into Westminster’s hands, and we’re not going to give them an inch of an excuse to threaten us any more than they’re already doing.

Keep the head. Keep the powder dry. We have to box clever and outmanoeuvre them. We have a kick-off date now, and we can start to focus on the strategy for the next two years.

Proud Cybernat

No PhD required…

link to imgur.com

yesindyref2

@Robert Peffers
The £4 billion in the BoE is actually owned by the three note issuing banks to cover the Scottish banknotes in circulation 100%, and if they stop issuing those banknotes, they can get their money back. They did it basically as marketing.

Dave McEwan Hill

Richardinho at 10.10

The UK government can’t stop Scotland having a second referendum. It can make it difficult and invent impediments but under the UN Charter it can’t stop it. And it knows exactly the effect it will have if it tries.

The Catalan government has just announced it will stage a referendum despite Spain saying it can’t.

John Moss

I want Scotland out of the United Kingdom and Europe.

I want independence and no part of my sovereingty given away to anyone.

Time to dump the UK as quickly as possible and to forge a future for ourselves in the world.

Dan Huil

As the Rev implies, how can Westminster accuse the independence movement in Scotland of not having answers to the economic questions of independence when it has already shown to the world its [Westminster’s] own ignorance, incompetence and duplicity in trying to work out brexit.

heedtracker

This is great.

John Cleese ?@JohnCleese 1h1 hour ago
John Cleese Retweeted David Puckridge
Why do we let half-educated tenement Scots run our English press ? Because their craving for social status makes them obedient retainers ?

Jim Finlayson

A great deal of bravado emanating from Mrs May at the moment. So far nothing has happened regarding Brexit. Once it does the proverbial shit will hit the fan big time. When it does Mrs May, if she is still in her job, will do what the City of London tells her to do. If that is “stay in the single market” then that is what will happen.

Petra

@ Brian Lucey …. Thanks for taking the time to post on here Brian. Your input is very interesting and greatly appreciated. Out of interest do you foresee Brexit leading to a United Ireland?

……….

@ Jack Collatin at 8:53 pm …. “The Indyref should wait until we can see the White of their eyes.”

Spot on Jack, let’s all be patient and let the events unfold now. 45% of the population wanted Independence previously. If they stick to their guns we need another 6% to win (more hopefully). How many of the 62% that voted to remain in the EU will vote for Independence now to do just that?

I reckon that Indyref2 will take place just short of two years from now. Two years in the life of politics is a mighty long time. So much can happen between now and then. More than anything time to see clearly that Westminster will have made an economic hash of this. That ‘hash’ may result in companies publicly announcing relocating to Scotland if we become independent. How influential would that be? UKip support may go through the roof if the plebeians don’t see a ‘positive’ migrant change. How off-putting would that be for Scots? The EU may have to have a rethink in relation to open borders. I’ve even read that the Euro may be scrapped. Seems unlikely? Who knows?

Whatever the case we’ve got two years to convert 6% of the population. Callous, corrupt, totally inept Westminster may in fact do the job for us. As some say on here start stockpiling the popcorn.

………..

@ John O at 8:54 pm …. ‘Article 50’

Great link John. I’ve just had a quick swatch at it. Will take a closer look later when I get more time.

……….

@ Tamas Marcius at 9:40pm …. ‘Exports’.

This is absolutely crucial Tamas and I’m sure that Nicola Sturgeon will be on top of this already in preparation of quelling one of the most potent of Unionist arguments.

……………

I was just wondering if Theresa May informed The First Minister of Scotland, the Scotland that has the most powerfully devolved Parliament in the World, that Article 50 will be triggered before March and that there will be a ‘hard Brexit’ or did Nicola Sturgeon First Minister of Scotland, Scotland the so-called equal and valued partner, hear about this when watching the Marr Show?

heedtracker

Proud Cybernat says:
2 October, 2016 at 11:33 pm
No PhD required…

The red tories of the Scotland region are howling for tax hikes and Sturgeon must end austerity. Why they want tax hikes under tory England reign and not independent Scotland, where we might pay more tax but at least we wouldn’t be doing to it to pay twice for the privilege of being in the UKOK zone, is a bit Britnat mad, Dr NO! style.

Scott Arthur Retweeted
Edinburgh Labour ?@EdinburghLabour Oct 1
.@kezdugdale “Nicola Sturgeon has not just passed on Tory cuts – she doubled them. The FM has become an administrator for austerity”

Glesca Keelie

cearc says:
2 October, 2016 at 10:41 pm

“May has to have some sort of trading arrangement with the EU in place when they leave, however unfavourable because they are dependent on electricity imports from France, Netherlands and of course, Scotland.”

Cearc, did you ever see the page in the National Grid website showing energy flows from us to N.Ireland and England, and from France and I thought Belgium to England. Disappeared before the Ref. Or I can no longer find it.

DerekM

yawn i see yon English zoomer May has been spouting pish again.

What i find really funny is that the press are bumming her up as the great UKOK savior,next they will be telling us she is going to handbag all those EU folks.

Her record in office is appalling she is a total disaster zone that makes pig fancier look competent,the EU are going to tear her to pieces cant wait.

Think i will buy some popcorn shares 🙂

Dr Jim

Can I just say for some folk who are doing this I want my sovereign Independence but not in the EU stuff just go right ahead and split the vote, divide and England conquer the good old fashioned way, keep punting that brilliant idea of non co-operation with the world just like the UK lot we’re trying to get away from

Jeez! What planet are these folk on

Tam Jardine

Excellent article Stu. I agree with almost everything. One thing I don’t understand is why the ref has to be at the end of the 2 year period when the Scottish Government has been advised to get on with it and avoid that very situation (submission to a Holyrood committee as I recall).

It all sounds great except we do not know how the EU will fare over the next few years and as it is an institution in some difficulty we cannot know for sure how attractive it will be in 2 years time. Having said that I am heartened by today’s events.

Brian Doonthetoon

Hi Glesca Keelie.

Re National Grid. Does this help?

link to gridwatch.templar.co.uk

geeo

The rev said….

“The chances of that happening are seventy thousand billion trillion to one against. And I’m sugar-coating that. You’ve got more chance of winning every lottery on Earth simultaneously while being struck by lightning and a meteor”

So not ruling it out then….???

Funniest thing i have read today, and i have been on wings twice already….! Brilliant .

Proud Cybernat

May, without a hint of irony, calls Scots “divisive nationalists” and yet it is the Scots who voted to remain with our friends in Europe, not place divisions between us.

Orri

Thing is,

Even if the current ratio of trade rUK:EU is correct it doesn’t mean that it’s fixed in stone. Once the Brexit button is finally pushed there’s probably two years of preemptive financial meltdown in advance of the final separation. If the UK economy is really going down the pan then Scotland can’t afford not to keep it’s access to the single market.

Nor is there any real mention of whether the rUK is, at present, our majority “export” market or whether we access others via agreements made by the EU which would have to be renegotiated post Brexit.

mike cassidy

For those interested in the Scotland/England energy relationship.

An electricity snapshot for January and February this year.

link to euanmearns.com

And the comments are also to be read.

Liz g

I want to add my voice to everyone here who has made it clear to those who suggest violence of some sort,that we don’t agree,with that.
NO you’re not on we are close,so close to getting this done the right way why would you even consider it ?
Violence has never been a part of this campaign.
Scotland and it has to be said England are working this out peacefully.
Where is the need (if there is ever a need ) for violence?

As far as I can tell the only group so far to have expressed the willingness to actually “Physically” fight seem to be the OO and their friends.

So I would ask that you note two things about them.

Firstly…Their website’s in the lead up to the big march before Indy Ref 1,were full of “mind nay trouble comments”, and there wasn’t any.
That tells me that they are as sensitive to how they are perceived as every other group,and they knew how bad it would look opposite a very peaceful movement.
That’s powerful we can use that.

Secondly… what seemed to me, to be obviously absent across their web sites,the ones I was looking at anyway,both then and now.
Was an explanation of any kind of why they were to support the Union of the Parliament’s.
No one ever said I support the Union of the Crown’s,but not the 1707 Union of the Parliament’s.
They all gave the impression that they thought it was the same thing.
Therefore it begs the question if not, why not?

So would you, could you , really fight with someone,when you can’t be absolutely sure that they are not fighting for the wrong Union.
Wouldn’t you want to be sure that this person didn’t hate Westminster rule as much as you did, after all they and their families probably face the same struggles you do?

Again we can potentially use this,by being more clear about what Union we are actually against,and finding out why they perceive the end of the political Union as a threat to the Union to which they have given their loyalty.

I have no doubt that the,shall we say confusion , between the two Union’s is deliberately encouraged ….there is your actual fight,clear that up and even if they still all voted no in the privacy of the polling booth a least some will understand what it’s really all about,and be somewhat reassured that it is not their rightly or wrongly held belief in the Union of the Crown’s that is the issue.
Because after Indy they’re still us.

call me dave

Constitutional crisis looms over Brexit as May insists Holyrood would have no veto over process

link to archive.is

davidb

@ Dan Dare.

And that’s the numbers we need to know. That is their currency question argument & Achilles heel for ID2.

I know that a lot of the purchasing we make in rUK is because the UK agent for German, Italian, American firms is in England. It would be ludicrous – and costly – to have to buy those goods from a country outwith the EU, only to try to re-export with another tariff back to the EU. The cheapest option is to miss the English merchants out. There are opportunities for Scottish merchants in this.

Incidentally, how would anyone know what the trade numbers are between Scotland and rUK? The VAT system has a reporting mechanism for trade between EU members, but there is no such mechanism internally in the UK. My VAT returns don’t give any indication of whom I buy from or sell to inside the UK. The only records are EU sales & purchases.

We need to get the stats published and printed ASAP. Neuter their argument now, before we spend 2 years fighting the battle on their terms again.

Onwards

Rev. Stuart Campbell says:
2 October, 2016 at 8:25 pm
“This could be solved with a double question.

1. Should Scotland be a sovereign nation state? YES/NO
2. Should we be part of the EU. YES/NO”

No, that’s insane, because you then have to conduct two separate and totally contradictory Yes campaigns at the same time.
————-

It’s not contradictory if you believe the EU is a union of independent countries voluntarily pooling a degree of sovereignty to enable a huge common market.

And Scotland already voted 62% to stay in Europe via the UK. It’s a formality there would be a YES vote on that one.
So Independence would be the overwhelming focus.

The point of a separate EU question – either at the same time, or following an independence vote, is to neutralize the certain attacks about “gaining independence and then handing it away to Brussels.” We will never hear the end of it.

Letting the voters decide on Europe is a clear way out. The likes of Jim Sillars can vote YES/NO, and that’s fine.

Otherwise, losing say 10% of potential YES voters is a big deal when every single vote is needed.

yesindyref2

There is another little angle now, that I don’t think anyone has thought of yet. I could be wrong, but if the EU won’t talk officially to Scotland until Brexit, because it respects the UK’s constitution as it does all member state constitutions, what happens then if the UK doesn’t respect its own constitution, adversely affecting Scotland?

Oh, and my prediction for Indy Ref 2 is now same as Salmond’s – autumn next year.

It’s all coming to the boil.

yesindyref2

@Onwards
Actually, if we have the two questions, every single Indy support could vote YES for question 1, the problem is would previous NO voters still vote NO to that, but YES to Question 2?

It would have to be rephrased as a gateway after a YES to question 1, or have the words “Independent Scotland part of the EU”.

But it’s worth thinking about, I think YES this time will be multi-idea, and that would allow the anti-EU people to also campaign for YES to Indy.

Onwards

@yesindyref2

There is of course a YES/YES precendent in the 1997 devolution referendum. It could be worded along the same lines.

Question 2:
Should an independent Scotland join/remain in the EU?

The more I think about it, the more I think it will be harder to win a second indyref without catering to Scottish Leave voters. I see a lot of chat on facebook about people who voted YES in 2014, but don’t want to be part of Europe. Most of them would probably still vote YES, but it can’t be taken for granted. It would be good to see some polling on the issue.

And by the time a second referendum comes around, the EU will be painted as hostile by the tabloids after they take a hard line in negotiations.

A second question would in all effect be a formality, but having it there enables us to dodge a bullet, and hopefully maximise YES support.

Thinking ahead, a new indyref based on independence in Europe, opens up the possibility of a new last minute SuperVow where Westminster tries to stave off independence with a new offer of Devo Max including previous EU powers over fishing/agriculture, and maybe an element of immigration controls.

Petra

@ Call me Dave at 1:48am ……

I couldn’t quite believe what I was reading there ….

Theresa May unelected UK Leader has said that “There is no opt-out from Brexit and I will never allow devisive Nationalists to undermine the precious Union between the four Nations of our United Kingdom.”

That’s that then! Scotland’s devisive Nationalists? We know where we stand now. Theresa arrogant May truly lacking in any understanding, no insight whatsoever, that devisive Nationalistic Brexiters, due to sheer numbers, have undermined the precious Union between Scotland and twenty seven European countries.

Looks as though the dictator’s mask has slipped already and the gloves are well and truly off. Sounds as though she means business and one wonders what lengths she’ll go to, to prevent us from getting our Independence? Day one with over seven hundred to go folks. Hang onto your hats.

yesindyref2

@Onwards
I certainly think the ScotGov should consider the two question referendum.

With the UK / rUK going into Brexit, presuming it gets past the accelerated court case due to conclude mid-December, wither with the Royal whatever it’s called, or somehow a vote through the UK Parliament, I think the last thing it wants is distractions so my feeling is there will be no White Papers from UK Gov, and opposition to YES will be left to Ruth. Quite honestly if I was Theresa May, my take on annoying Scotland would be:

“If you want to stay, stay, if you want to go, go, but for any sake, do it quickly. I’ve got other fish to fry, or we’ll have had our chips”.

For me everything she says, and everything she does, fits that.

A lot to think about all the same!

Isabel Melville

A hard Brexit can only be good for an independent Scotland. Big business (currently in London including the banks) would relocate here instead of Paris. Europeans currently in England and Wales could come here and help repopulate the Highlands. Land must first be made available of course, so a few grouse moors will become the housing estates, as they once nearly were.
Boris has this vision for London. Boris is a ‘high heid yin’ in May”s government. They are planning on keeping the cream while serving the serfs stale bread. Boris wants a trade deal for London, and London only.
If we get in ahead, and oor Nicola has been laying the groundwork, and get the EU to actually say we would definitely become a member as an independent nation, then we have won the hearts and minds of the majority here in Scotland at indyref2.

Maureen Luby

The EU is nothing if not pragmatic and there have already been hints of a ‘transitional holding pen’ for Scotland, which would remove the need for ‘reapplication’.

link to scottishlegal.com

Ken500

It will never happen the Tory separatist will be over thrown. They will plunder as much public money as they can for them and their associates. Hinkley Point, HS2, Heathrow. It is just a cover for Tory multimillionaires to plunder more public cash.The are ruining the world economy just likeThatcher.

How long will it be for the English working class to caught on. It took 18 years with Thatcher. ‘Loads of money bankers’. The Tories are crashing the banking system and industry again.Never trust a Tory banker, like multimillionaire May. Britain is the most unequal place in the world. Sanctioning and starving the vulnerable. It makes people sick. People are sick of the slight of Unionist politicians.The lull before the fall.

How long will Scotland stay around getting fleeced?

Ken500

Election fraud was committed in 31 constituencies. What is being done about that?

Ken500

If they voted YES in 2014 they voted YES to staying in Europe. 62% of voters voted to stay in the EU. More NO (Indyref) voters must have voted to stay in the EU, with a lower turnout. It is just a matter of time. The younger folk are in favour of Independence,

Jules

Why would us leaving the EU mean that any further campaign for Indy would be ‘doomed’, Stu?

Ten more years hitched to Little England, Tory-style, plus the ever-changing demographics (the gradual loss of those born in 30s and 40s who are overwhelmingly pro-Union) would, I think, make Indy a strong possibility. We could then decide whether or not to apply for EU membership based on circumstances at the time.

One_Scot

‘And fighting for Scottish independence from outside the EU is a doomed project. We might as well give up at that point.’

That’s my view. If Scotland does not vote Yes in IndyRef2, we are dead.

The question now is, ‘how much desire does Scotland have to stay alive?’

Jack Collatin

Paul’s WGD site seems to be under attack. Great difficulty in t-y-p-I-n-g- a post.
Has the cyber attack by the Yoons started already?

John Cleese is an upper class Oxbridge racist.
We do not look up to him, or down on any human being on this planet.

The Footlights. How to waste time at University,and deprive degree places to genuine students ,before making a lifelong clown of yourself.
This time we are ready. A short sharp campaign, paralleling the car crash that will be the Brexit humiliation of the Darling Duds of May, the Three Brexiteers, Foxos, Borisos, and Aramidavis,seems the most strategic option; a pincer movement, if you like,the E27 on one flank, and the Scots colony on the other, uniting in a common cause.

Robert Louis

I’m just not sure what motivates people who support independence, when faced with the current situation, insist on making the matter more complex than it is, with talk of multiple questions in a referendum.

The Uk Government has now made it very simple AND CLEAR, if you want Scotland to remain in the EU, then Scotland must become independent. The question is therefore simple, ‘Should Scotland be an independent country yes/no?

All this talk of ‘oh but what about indy supporters who want out of the EU etc.. is unfathomably dumb. Yes, they exist, but I’d bet all my money, that almost all of them would prefer independence in these circumstances. Just think, England is not just leaving the EU, they are planning on removing human rights, employment rights, agricultural regulation, pesticide regulation, etc.. etc.. it goes on and on. Who in their right mind would ever choose that.

Keep it simple. Stop falling for unionist sophistry about currency and other considerations.

This isn’t rocket science.

Just as an aside, I have to say I’m surprised at the number of folks posting above, seemingly taken in by the whole ‘you must join the EU’ tosh, used by project fear in indy ref 1. Might I suggest you take time to read this

link to wingsoverscotland.com

Macart

The great repeal is the constitutional crisis. It would be Westminster parliament’s attempt to override Scottish democracy, the will of the devolved parliament and our still independent law.

Now our parly could be dismantled by thone grumpy MPs and Peers I suppose, but in order to do so would require the repeal of the Scotland act and then the creation of a new act which would ignore the primacy of Scots law, Scottish sovereignty and I’d imagine drive a horse and cart through the treaty of union. I’m sure our MPs, MSPs and electorate would just be standing around with their hands in their pockets watching the clouds roll by during all of that. 😀

No, I don’t think they’ll attempt any of that either. They’re in enough bother as it is with the population across the UK. Remember Mr Cameron’s careless and well publicised remarks on indyref? The one where he let the cat out the bag on her maj and what a narrow squeak the whole thing was?

The political class will always, but always attempt to subvert the democratic process. They’ll lie, cheat, manipulate, blackmail, beg, bully and bluster, to convince the public to vote the way they want. How and ever, in a 21st century western democracy I’d very much doubt they’d attempt to destroy democratic process and replace it with dictatorship, (though most days it certainly feels that way to people). 🙂

The reason Cameron had been afraid, was simply because he would have been compelled to abide by the democratic process. As indeed May is compelled right now over Brexit and will be on the result of any indyref2.

So long as the democratic process exists, there is no need or want for the likes of UDI. If any politician pulls that out of the tool box, its because democracy has failed and the tanks are headed for the border. Its the course no one wants, or wants to see. Its also not needed.

So long as democracy exists on these islands, all that is required is a simple agreed upon mandate at a ballot. Referendum or GE, doesn’t matter which. If you vote for someone seeking a specific mandate and they win? Then I’d guess its their job to carry out that mandate. 😉

brian lucey

Petra
“Out of interest do you foresee Brexit leading to a United Ireland?”
Not in the shortterm, I think, Most opinion polling gives, at most, about 1/3 voters in NI for such a move. Also, a very large majority of people in the Republic would not support same if it meant, as it almost certainly would, a tax hike – see
link to banda.ie
NI gets about 10-15b e pa from the RoUK – thats between 20-25% total of total Gross Government Expenditure. As we are just about at a breakeven budget, that money would have to come from somewhere
Based on the last time the UK broke up (a set of historical and political precedents which I sense many in Scotland ignoring..) the final settlement would be : NI gets away with no assumption of UK debt BUT the break is clean, apart from contractual and pension ongoing arrangements. In other words, no further subvention.
So, right now, no.
But, as the prospect of a hard customs and perhaps travel border on the Island of Ireland comes more and more likely, those views from the North may well change.

galamcennalath

Multiple questions, why?

We have just had a Holyrood election and an EU referendum. Where Scotland stands, and what mandate its parliament has, is completely clear!

A majority wish to stay in the EU.

A parliament was elected with a mandate to call IndyRef2 if necessary.

There is only one question left for which an answer is needed, should we be independent?

As for the result of IndyRef1, that was in different times and a different UK.

Glesca Keelie

Brian Doonthetoon says:
3 October, 2016 at 12:32 am

“Hi Glesca Keelie.

Re National Grid. Does this help?

link to gridwatch.templar.co.uk

Hi BrianDTT, No, the page I was referring to was live, real time power flows. Updated every few minutes, if I remember.

The elec. we sent south, and it was 24hrs a day. every time I looked, was huge. Would a gigawatt/hr seem right.

Thanks anyway.

Jack Collatin

As a former semi educated tenement dweller, I urge, why don’t you just fuck off, Cleese.
I would say that, wouldn’t I? I lack Cleese’s Oxbridge education, upper ruling class breeding, and masterful command of the Queen’s English, to offer anything like a coherent and cogent rebuttal of this nasty little piece of Brit Imperial racism.
So, ‘fuck off, Cleese’, it is.
BTW.
The top 200 Universities on the planet:-

Edinburgh 24th
Glasgow 76th
St Andrew’s 86th
Aberdeen 172nd
Dundee 185th

Population of the world 7,000,000,000 (give or take)
Population of Scotland 5,400.000

We are too stupid, of course.
Cleese has obviously been appointed as Minister of Silly Talks to May’s Cabinet.

Robert Louis

So, Theresa May, the unelected Prime Minister of the UK, has said, “There is no opt out from Brexit. And I will never allow divisive nationalists to undermine the precious Union between the four nations of our United Kingdom.”

This has been excellently dissected by the Wee ginger dug link to weegingerdug.wordpress.com

This is perhaps the most honest thing ANY Prime minister has said about England’s attitude to Scotland. It is colonialism, pure and simple. That coupled with the racist comments by some old fool from southern England who used to be a comedian, tells us everything Scots need to know of where Scotland fits into this cursed, undemocratic and unwanted union with England.

As the wee ginger dug very eloquently puts it;

“There is no precious Union. A Union means a voluntary coming together of partners. A Union means that the differences between those partners are respected and a means found of accommodating them. A Union means consent. A Union in which the largest partner in that Union always gets its own way and the others have to do as it commands is not a Union. It’s a takeover. It’s a demand for obedience. There’s precious little to distinguish it from a colonial enterprise. What precious to Theresa is her right to command, her ability to rule, her capacity for power.”

I say, let’s get independent, and kick these racist, colonialist southern English Tories out of Scotland for good.

Robert Louis

Glasca Keelie, at 0849am

I know the page you mean on the power transfers. I can’t find it anymore. It looks like it has been ‘disappeared’.

Tam Jardine

Kaye this morning’s theme: “Are you ready to crack on with Brexit”

Does one “crack on” with self harm? I have “cracked on” with meetings and jobs of work but that is a strange way of putting it.

First caller- emphatic yes.

call me dave

Mundell accused of saying the SG sniping from the sidelines as GMS shortbread interview turns pear shaped over May’s pronouncement on Brexit. He denied it!

The Tories are flying by the seat of their UJ pants blustering along without due regard to the consequences.

Tam Jardine

Call Kaye… caller Bob nails it: I paraphrase: ‘The Scottish Government has got it right… the government in Westminster is hanging itself’

Robert Peffers

link to wingsoverscotland.com

That is only the Westminster Establishment’s lying, and long dunned into the United KINGDOM electorates mind, claims on this matter.

The actual true legality of the matter is plainly stated within that simple little title, “UNITED KINGDOM”“. It is in fact legally only a United kingdom and in spite of the erroneous assumption of the Westminster Establishment since 1706/7, it has never actually ever legally been a single country.

At best it could be described as a kingdom state or a political union of kingdoms. The union is, was and remains a union of only two kingdoms. However, one of those kingdoms contained, long before 1706/7, three individual countries.

Furthermore, Until the English Kingdom’s, “Glorious Revolution”, of 1688, each individual country was a monarchy and, as the history of Britain will attest, countries can contain many monarchies within its borders.

So all three countries in the 1706/7 Kingdom of England were former monarchies that were annexed by the Kingdom of England under the law of Divine Right of Kings. The problem the pre-Treaty of Union, Kingdom of England had was that from at least 1320 The Kingdom of Scotland was internationally recognised as NOT being legally ruled under Divine Right of Kings as the Declaration of Arbroath had established that the law of Scotland made the people of Scotland, not their monarchy, sovereign and thus it was the people of Scotland who had divine right.

Thus, even if the English monarchy defeated, or by other means acquired fealty from the Scottish monarchy, there was no legal way for the English monarch to become sovereign over Scotland. This was shown as true in 1603 when the Scottish monarch inherited the crown of England and attempted to form a United Kingdom.

He failed to do so. First of all the English Kingdom of 1603 was already legally a, “Constitutional Monarchy”. In a constitutional monarchy the monarch remains the legal owner of everything including their subjects and the parliament but must legally delegate their sovereignty to their Royal Parliament.

So there was no way that Parliament of England was about to allow the Kingdom of England to be annexed by the Kingdom of Scotland, (under The Divine Right of Kings), so they dredged up an old English legal precedent that stated, “A sovereign, just by being sovereign, could not legally forfeit the sovereignty of the Kingdom”.

The two kingdoms thus remained independent and that was why a legal Treaty of Union was forced upon the Kingdom of Scotland in 1706/7. It was also why certain articles of union had to be included in the Treaty of Union.

These included that the law of Scotland must remain independent in perpetuity, That the Scottish currency remained the Pound Sterling but the Scottish banks retain the legal right to print their own banknotes and that the monarch of England could not be head of any Scottish church. Also that the Scottish education system be independent from that of the Kingdom of England.

So there you go – the legal facts do not support the Westminster claims that they hold sovereignty over the kingdom of Scotland. The truth is that as a bipartite union of kingdoms the way Westminster has divided the United Kingdom up by unequally devolving powers and retaining only England as the United Kingdom has no legal basis in law or fact.

Quite simply the United Kingdom is legally a union of only two equally sovereign kingdoms and neither can claim sovereignty over the other except by formal agreement and either can withdraw from the union and by doing so the united kingdom is ended.

They, Westminster, cannot remain a United Kingdom as there are then no other kingdoms to be united with. English law also precludes the legally sovereign people of Scotland being able to renounce their sovereignty.

Their bland assumptions of overall sovereignty cannot be legally supported by any other evidence than perhaps a Westminster claim of custom and practice. A claim easily discounted as there have been several legal Scottish Claim of Right submissions ignored by Westminster. Yet the mere existence of the claims proves custom and practice has never been accepted but only permitted by the sovereign people of Scotland.

Arabs for Independence

John Cleese – Minister for Silly Talks

Peter McCulloch

So much for Scotland being an equal partner in this union.

What May’s statement has confirmed is that we are in an Electoral dictatorship and not only the votes of the Scottish but laos the electorate doesn’t matter,

Cymru Rydd

As a very interested observer from Wales, I am in no doubt that Theresa May and her advisers have concocted a devious plan to neutralize any Scottish independence threat. The very use of the words “divisive nationalists” in her speech yesterday shows that this is absolutely central to the Brexit strategy. I think:

i)She is planning a rapid Brexit, followed by a snap election to cement the Tories’ dominance in Westminster and take full advantage of Labour’s hopeless divisions.This election will all be about “Britain” staking out its new position in the world, and “breaking free” of the European Union.

ii)A crucial part of all this will be to build up Unionist sentiments in all parts of these isles.

iii) The above two factors will prevent Scotland from having time or the necessary momentum to hold an Independence Referendum before Brexit is delivered. Bingo for the UK.

I think Alex Salmond is spot on with his prediction of a 2017 referendum on Scottish Independence. 2019 will just be too late since Brexit will have occurred and a Tory/Ukip dominated Westminster will have seized all the initiative and the moral high ground.

Scotland now has no choice but to fight fire with fire. Hopefully, as somebody else has pointed out, a 2017 referendum could be part of a pincer movement along with European states against Westminster’s machinations.

I also suggest that the new referendum question should cover all bases: Scotland to be a sovereign nation state (YES/NO) along with an accompanying YES/NO to the European Union( to cater for the million Scots who voted leave in June)

Peter McCulloch

So much for Scotland being an equal partner in this union.

What May’s statement has confirmed is that we are in an Electoral dictatorship, and not only the votes of the Scottish but also those of the Welsh and Northern Irish electorates don’t matter.

galamcennalath

Nicola retweet a link to this …

link to cer.org.uk

Dorothy Devine

I admit to being astonished at Ms.May’s short sighted monologue. It reminded me of the accusations flung around by the UK/US against all others who have a different viewpoint and the temerity to state it.

There is no mirror big enough for Ms May to see ‘ divisive nationalism’ clearly and she certainly has neither the wit nor the will.

schrodingers cat

so.. the end of march…
if this date slips by even a couple of weeks, it makes the idea of indyref2 in spring 2019 more possible. I still think sept 2018, but the option is now a possibility for nicola. keeping our options open at the mo is wise.

a few thoughts
1. the pressure from the EU for TM to press the A50 button is mounting.
2. the pressure from her own party is mounting, the end of march is 5 weeks before the council elections in england, any further delay could see ukip winning more seats in england.
3. The end of march date for a50, and the expected economic fallout/crash/wobble/blip happening in the middle of the council election campaign here in scotland. this is good for us.
4. once A50 button is pressed, a face off between May and Sturgeon over indyref2 is inevitable. This could be a problem if it happens in the middle of the council campaign.
5. after indyref1, the yes folk swung over to the snp. (snpnef branch effectively dissapeared in the 12 months prior to sept 2014) once indyref2 is called, the snp will swing back to yes. I would rather this happens just after the council elections, not during the campaign.

Every day past the end of march that may waits to press the button, the better it will be for us.

Andrew Coulson

A very insightful post (and a return to form). My only question (genuinely, a question) is this: when Mrs May became Prime Minister, it seemed to me that she was certain to be in government for the next decade. She had no enemies to the left, except for the SNP and the Corbynite Labour Party, and her enemies on the right are not going to try and stop her forming a government (any more than they tried to stop David Cameron — the idea’s absurd). The only thing, I can see, that _could_ spoil this script, would be if Brexit, in her hands, really had turned into a manifest economic disaster. I know that ‘everyone’ agrees that hard Brexit will be a manifest economic disaster — but if the hard-eyed characters behind Mrs May clearly think that it won’t be: what makes you so sure that conventional wisdom is right? Straight question.

Hamish100

How many times the bbc call kaye finds a snp voter who supports the uk government over brexit

The individual as I understand it has never voted snp.

She obviously does not believe in the sovereignty of the people.

Vambomarbeleye

Marjorie on radio short bread. OMG

Vambomarbeleye

Marjorie out so we can trade with the whole world. The natives don’t want beads and mirrors any more.

Dr Jim

Patrick Harvie wants to be viewed as being more important these days so what about it Patrick start speaking up for the Independence you say the Greens support or is it a case of leave it all to the FM to be called the bad names while the Greens skulk around like Golumb behind the rocks hoping to snatch the ring of power while nobody notices

Ghillie

Exciting times folks = )

cearc

Glesca Keelie,

When they revamped the website they seem to have hidden it well. No longer a sidebar on the front page.

link to realtimeweb-prod.nationalgrid.com

mike cassidy,
nice to see that it is being monitored

I thought electricity should have been given more attention in the last indyref.

The fact that we are a net exporter but each of us have to pay more for our electricity than southern Engerlanders, effectively subsidising them.

call me dave

Excellent again Mr Peffers.

Scotland is in a hostage situation not in a union!

Les Wilson

I think Any threat to cross border trade is absolute bluff. While we may , no will, get our trade figures with rUk constantly thrown at us, they always miss the argument of how much rUk does with Scotland. There is their problem.

If they aimed to damage mutual trade out of spite, then in what could be very hard times, are they going to explain to many thousands of employees who’s companies service Scotland’s needs every day of the week, that they are are destroying their jobs simply out of spite?

They sell everything to Scotland, it will be very big numbers, to create deliberate barriers to that trade, would be madness to the extreme and further drop the rUk into the cesspit it already is.

Edward

Just listening some idiot called Marjory on ‘Call Kaye’
waffling that most of what Scotland produces goes to England

She also stated that Scotland should get out of the EU and start trading with the rest of the World

I am totally fed up with idiots that spout this kind of garbage
There is NO system within the UK for measuring how much ‘trade’ is sold between the nations that make up the UK

Its a piece of waffle that unionists keep trotting out in their stupid attempt to put Scotland down.
Tom Harris (who was on earlier) also came out with the same guff

As for trading with the rest of the World, actually Scotland exports more in terms of value to the rest of the World per capita, compared with England. The UK as a whole imports more than it exports, as the UK’s manufacturing base is nearly non existent, as its has practically everything manufactured overseas!

The sad thing about Marjory is that she claims to be an SNP supporter and a supporter of independence.

She even stated that if Scotland became independent and in the EU, there would be a hard border, which would affect movement of goods south as well as affecting families (where the fuck have I heard that stupid argument before?)

As for Teresa May and the muppet Tory’s , she is now stating she wants a ‘hard brexit’ as she wants to control immigration, but states that she expects to be able to negotiate a unique exclusive deal for the UK.

Have news for May, that aint going to happen, there is no negotiation, the UK either accepts the same terms as other country’s, such as Norway, or it will not get any deal at all

Clydebuilt

BBC Radio Scotland 9am News “Mike Russell Scotland’s So Called Brexit Minister”

BBC Radio Scotland News. The title given was so long winded I didn’t take it down ……. Basically I Think it ment Scotland’s Brexit Minister,

So they probably got a phone call of complaint from the Government, and this was their cheeky response.
Akin to refusing to call ISIL…. Daesh…..because Alex Salmond said they should be referred to as Daesh.

dandy dons 1903

So Cruella Deville May has opened her big mouth and spouted some hypocritical drivel. Lets hope she keeps bellowing inane brit nonsense at Scotland it can only help our quest.
IndyRef in 2017 fingers crossed.

Jack Collatin

T May at a microphone in the Conference broom cupboard, Davidson sombre looking, hands clasped in silent prayer, a tory boy with a glass of red plonk, and a handful of the Scottish contingent, and the press camp, putting Scotland and her wee Scottish handmaiden in their place.
Tam Jardine: I listened in for a few minutes to Call Kaye Adams.
‘Donald’ from Inverness, a Tory Boy with cultured fee paying school faux Oxbridge Received Pronunciation with a quaint hint of a Scottish burr, obviously accustomed to spouting right wing guff on behalf of the Tories, and BBC North Briton place man, urges us all to get on with it, that there will be tremendous opportunities, and after allwe voted No in 2014.
Tom Harris was on the line. You may remember that he was one of the ‘Fucking Useless’ New Labour new conservative Scottish gravy trainers whom we kicked out in May 16, and who now is a ‘consultant’, and regular guest on BBC North Britain, spouting his wisdom and drawing on his considerable failure as a politician, mouthing the same,
‘the UK voted to leave’, and ‘Scotland voted to stay part of the UK in 2014′, and besides agriculture and fisheries powers will be devolved from Brussels to Edinburgh following Brexit’, Better Together Red Tory guff.
Tom Harris lies.
Notionally fisheries and agriculture MAY be devolved to Holyrood by Westminster following Brexit, or it may not. Most of us suspect that it will not happen, and May’s declaration of the Divine Right of Westminster to crush the Scots yesterday confirms our fears. If we go along with the madness of Brexit, which we overwhelmingly rejected in Scotland, then we shall be at the mercy of an English far right rabidly anti Scottish Government for decades to come.WM will still be doling out the Fish and Farm Cash, which will be slashed under Tory Cuts.
Tom Harris is touting for business, and has morphed into an arch right wing Unionist Tory Boy.
Fear not, Mr Harris, when we vote Yes and remain within the EU, you can still retain your rUK English passport, and even settle in England’s Green and Pleasant Land, apparently.
You will be of no loss Up Here.
Kaye Adams has obviously studied 1984’s Ministry of Truth guidelines.
Her summaries of ‘Donald from Inverness’, and Tom Harris’ Unionist propaganda, lies, and faux history of the 2014 Referendum, urged us all to stop ‘dancing around’, twice, and that ‘we’ should just get on with it, and so on.
The Big Brother repetition of the Unionist message to the listening proles.
Brexit is good, Brexit is good, Brexit is good, Brexit is good…
Ten minutes of BBC Tory Towers is about all I could take.
They are scared stiff this time. They know that they have lost, and it shows.
There is not even a pretence that we are Better Together now.
Donald from Inverness and Tom Harris have spoken. We’re well and truly screwed; get over it.
I know a reliable removal firm, for any of the 700,000 Scots citizens who would reportedly flee South when we attain Self Determination.
We’ll need all the extra space for car workers and bankers fleeing North anyway.
Swings and roundabouts.

Capella

Caught the end of Call Kaye to hear “Marjorie” claim to be an independence supporter who thinks Scotland should just shut up and let the UK get on with BREXIT. She and her like minded friends have read all the treaties and resent EU bureaucracy.

Perhaps the SNP should call a meeting of all their anti-Europe members for a wee chat about the relative merits of UK union and EU union?.

Hamish100

iScotland in the EU with no nuclear weapons, no illegal wars,no need to pay for a Chinese French nuke power station that will go over budget, no so called high speed train to the north (Birmingham).

Look forward. Upgrade our sea connections for trade to the EU. improve air links to our fellow EU..

Will I feel sorry watching rukers standing in huge queues trying to get in and out of the EU. No

As for the million Scots who voted leave. I now understand at least 1/2 million of the voters were not Scottish but from other countries.

Capella

@ Robert Peffers – well said. Also, if the Scottish people have been sovereign since 1320, surely the Treaty of Union, which was opposed by the Scottish people, is null and void anyway being an agreement between two sets of unelected aristocrats?

Peter McCulloch

I also see Ruthless Davidson claims she will be first minister in 2021.

If Brexit turns out to be the disaster some are predicting it will be for Scotland and its economy does she really believe the Scottish electorate will be forgiving and forgetful in 2012?

Mike

The economy the EU the currency. All Red herrings.
If you want to guarantee an Indy ref win then court the pensioners and elderly.
Find a way to show them their needs will be paramount their pensions not only safe but improved their sense of personal security intact and Indyref 2 will be a walk over.
The age demographic in Scotland is the key to any referendum on any issue.
The Fact is in Scotland the elderly have the numbers and influence to determine any vote.
They are the key!

DerekM

@ Jules

The Rev could be right about that Jules the only reason we got our parliament was because of the UK democratic deficit being challenged by the EU,take away the EU and westminster will be able to return to the way things were.

The tories have been fighting this since day one they never wanted us to have any representation and would shut down devolution in a heartbeat if they got the chance.

If we do not get out before brexit say goodbye to our parliament and without our parliament calls for indyref2 could just be ignored.

Brexit has never been about independence for the UK its always been about keeping Scotland`s wealth in English hands,they need our oil to continue to be able to borrow the ludicrous sums they do.

Hence the desperation to try to ignore the Scottish EU remain vote and pull us out the EU against our will.

Without us they are broke so they will do everything to stop this and their first step must be to end any possible reprisals from the EU best way to do this is leave the EU.

For them its a choice of oil or EU and the oil wins that one hands down since the EU is an escape route for Scotland`s golden goose,they intend to clip our wings so we cant fly away and stuff us back in the UK cage.

We cant let that happen as it would leave us only one way to gain our freedom the Irish solution.

Peter McCulloch

Drat a typo, it should have said 2021 at the end of my post at 3 October, 2016 at 10:32 am

Robert Peffers

@
Capella says: 2 October, 2016 at 10:52 pm:

” … She’s wrong there. As Mr Peffers has pointed out umpteen times, there are not four countries in the Union. There are only two – Scotland and England.”

Wee correction, Capella, There are only two, “Kingdoms”, in the United KINGDFOM. Which is why they call it a, United Kingdom and not a united country. It is only the Westminster propaganda that uses Kingdom & Country as if the two terms were synonymous.

They are not synonymous. The history of Britain shows that when the several islands that compose Britain were just one country there were numerous small kingdoms and principalities in Britain. Indeed even when the British archipelago began to separate into distinct countries those countries still contained many smaller kingdoms and principalities. For example Northumberland was once a kingdom in its own right.

This was in the days when the rule of law was, “Divine Right of Kings”, under which law a monarch or prince who defeated another in battle annexed that defeated monarch’s kingdom and tagged it onto his existing kingdom. The same law applied when a male monarch married a female monarch. Women were legally owned by the husband and thus their kingdom was tagged onto the male partner’s kingdom. It also applied to inheriting kingdoms from parent monarchs.

Divine Right was the norm in Christendom but Scotland bucked that trend in 1320 when, “The Declaration of Arbroath”, was accepted by the leader of a;; Christendom, The Pope in Rome. The Kingdom of England, then composed of three countries by the rule of Divine right, only partly gave up the rule of Divine Right in 1688 during the English Kingdom’s, “Glorious Revolution”.

As the English legal system was still, “Divine Right”, when the non-sovereign King of Scots, James VI of Scots, inherited the crown of Kingdom of England in 1603, he could not, under English law, renounce the legal sovereignty of the people of Scotland, (confirmed in 1320), as he was only the protector of the Sovereign people of Scotland’s sovereignty. So he cold not just tag the Kingdom of England onto the Scottish Kingdom.

This is why the two Kingdoms still remained independent until 1707 after the treaty of Union. Indeed it was the actual reason a Treaty of Union was forced upon Scotland in the first place.

So the legal fact is that the United Kingdom is NOT a union of the four countries that it contains. It only legally unites kingdoms.

So both Wales & Ireland’s signatures were not required on the treaty document as they were both already parts of the Kingdom of England, (note they were not legally parts of the country of England). There are only two, equally sovereign, Kingdoms in the United Kingdom but that United Kingdom is composed of four countries with three of them originally parts of the Kingdom of England.

The rule of law is that when any legal member of a bipartite union, or agreement, withdraws from the union or agreement then the Status Quo Ante, (the status before the union or agreement), is reinstated. Like, for example in a marriage divorce, If either partner divorces the other partner they both return to the Status Quo Ante of being single again. You cannot have one partner returning to being single while the other partner remains married to them.

So it is ludicrous for Westminster to claim that the only country of Scotland is leaving the United Kingdom and the United Kingdom will still exist. The reason being that the treaty is of two kingdoms and not of four countries and it is the Kingdom of Scotland that is leaving because ONLY Scotland in the United Kingdom is both an individual country & an individual Kingdom.

The propaganda that confused the terms Kingdom and Country began by Westminster long before they forced the treaty of union upon the Scots. If you need confirmation of that consider the Battle of Culloden was fought in 1745 almost 40 years after the Treaty of Union was signed yet the Battle of Culloden is claimed to be the United Kingdom putting down a rebellion. Yet the claimed Jacobite Rebellion began due to the then independent English Parliament holding, “The Glorious Revolution”, when they deposed the monarch they shared with the still independent Scotland and importing King Billy & Queen Mary as monarchs of England.

However, because Scotland was still an independent Kingdom in 1688, and so the Scots could not be rebelling against King Billy & Queen Mary for the simple reason that Scotland had not deposed King James VII and you cannot rebel against a monarchy not your own.

It is all Westminster propaganda and it always has been.

Glamaig

cearc,

thanks for the link and I think it can’t be posted enough

link to realtimeweb-prod.nationalgrid.com

If I read that right Scotland is currently exporting 1GW to England???? And its not even that windy today.

As is the Netherlands.

I kinda see why they are desperate for Hinckley Point at any price.

We have them over a barrel with power, oil and gas, food and drink exports, and water in the future. No wonder they are desperate to hold onto us.

What pisses me off, and what fired me up to join the SNP and get active is not the fact that we prop them up, but the fact they cover it up and lie about it. I’ll never forget summer 2014 and the lies and pish pouring out of the media on behalf of Westminster. Worst of all are the Scots who are complicit in it. Call Kaye this morning, professional and sleekit propaganda dressed up as an innocent call in program.

Jockanese Wind Talker

Another glowing example of BBC impartiality.

“BBC accused of encouraging racial tension by trying to get English Defence League to appear in the audience on Question Time.”

link to telegraph.co.uk

Sorry it is a Torygraph link and I can’t do the archive thingy.

Capella

@ Robert Peffers – point taken. It always bears repeating. Slowly the light dawns! 🙂

Kevin Evans

Indyref2 we should have ballot papers that can be tampered with or seen by the likes of Davidson before voting is over.

I suggest doing like the lobbies in Westminster – 2 doors. One saying “yes” the other “no” behind the yes door a free bar and behind the no door a train departing for England. No a high speed one of course.

Jockanese Wind Talker

DerekM says at 10:44 am

“We cant let that happen as it would leave us only one way to gain our freedom the Irish solution.”

What solution is that Derek an armed uprising?

Grow up man Scotland will get her independence via the ballot box, not by the bullet and bomb.

Agent Provocateur perchance??

galamcennalath

Mike says:

“The economy the EU the currency. All Red herrings.
If you want to guarantee an Indy ref win then court the pensioners”

I agree pensioners should be No1 target. A commitment to iScottish pensions being among EU best, rather than worst, would be a good move.

Next I would say, get our voters out on the day. Turn out in NO areas has higher than YES.

Also, EU citizens are ideal converts. It is said many voted last time because they feared leaving the EU! We need to get our resident EU vote out, every one of them!

But every little counts and adds up. For instance farmers and those relying on a viable rural economy need to realise that inside the EU and away from SEEngland centric WM is in their interests.

Papadox

In 1707, when the Scottish parliament voted to dissolve itself and send representatives to the parliament in London, the Speaker of the English House of Commons exulted, “We have catch’d Scotland and will bind her fast.”

Did the people of Scotland get a vote? We’re the Scottish MPs bribed? We’re we bought and sold for English gold?

Don’t think anybody can complain about that exercise in democracy. Some things never change! RULE BRITTANIA.

Smallaxe

Jockanese Wind Talker:

O/T 2nd Oct 8:30pm
Message left for you.

Peace Always

heedtracker

Who’d be a teamGB economist, as every time a tory opens their gob, something really bad happens, or at least its hard to understand two things, why is oil up and the pound down, and why do voters think the tory party’s any good at running the UKOK economically? Ok I know the answer, look at Labournomics and there’s no money left style of UKOK Crash Gordo catastrofuck.

“Monday 10:50 BST. The fourth quarter of 2016 is off to a cautiously optimistic start with crude back at more than $50 a barrel while stock indices are heading higher, helped by easing concerns about the health of Deutsche Bank.

The pound, however, is missing out on the strong start to October, back under heavy pressure after the UK set a deadline for starting the process of exiting the EU, taking it to a three-year low against the euro.”

That’s the FT, fluffing the tories since 1816.

Jockanese Wind Talker

Glamaig says at 10:48 am

link to realtimeweb-prod.nationalgrid.com

“If I read that right Scotland is currently exporting 1GW to England???? And its not even that windy today.”

Now if that is 1GW per hour, that would retail at £80,000 per hour at household usage rates.

I’m unaware what the actual export price would be at the minute or indeed what it could realistically be in an iScotland.

So potentially £1,920,000 over a 24 hour period if this is average or £700,800,000 per annum.

Robert Peffers

@Dr Jim says: 3 October, 2016 at 12:08 am:

” … Jeez! What planet are these folk on?”

Unfortunately, Dr Jim,, “These People”, you speak about, inhabit not only the same planet as the rest of us but also the same continent, United Kingdom, Kingdom of Scotland, country of Scotland and the same cities, town’s, villages, hamlets and areas as the rest of us.

The thing is they wrongly imagine, either due to Westminster propaganda, congenital idiocy or both together, that we just all belong to the same unified country.

Factually, and legally, that single unified country of, “The United Kingdom”, is exactly what the words in that title describe it as – a single united kingdom, which is not the same thing as a single united country.

Mayhap you might consider it worth while to make that point crystal clear to them at every opportunity?

I find the most effective method of making the point clear is to demand they show proof this, “country”, they refer to, be it, “The United Kingdom”, “Britain”, “Great Britain”, or simply just, “The country”, exists in fact.

As it doesn’t exist in fact they will find it impossible to prove it does. If nothing else it will give them, and anyone overhearing the request for proof, pause for thought. Even a tiny doubt on their part is a major step towards independence of government for Scots and Scotland.

I wonder how many times I have been told, “You’re just being pedantic”, when adopting this tactic? To which the retort is, “Aye! Richt! Sae ye canna prove it then? Sae yer jist been tellin lies then”.

Desimond

The John Cleese thing…if its just a retweet then perhaps he was showing up the Puckridge fellows idiocy in the first place?

DerekM

@ Jockanese Wind Talker

I think the phrase “thieving bastards” covers the electricity situation.

Though they like to use the term pooling and sharing best of both world.

I prefer the first option.

DerekM

Did i say at any time that is what we should do Jockanese Wind Talker did i ?

Learn to read bawbag

orri

Given the amount of moaning about the vast majority of those in charge of our newspapers, why get on our high horse when those particular people are insulted?

Also, Westminster is dissolved prior to each GE so if that’s what happened to the pre 1703 Scots Parliament it doesn’t mean it was abolished. In fact from reports it seems it reconvened as, mainly, in joint session with the parliament of England/Wales. That it pointlessly convened in order to rubber stamp the decisions of Westminster might be a clue that it did not intend to abolish itself, merge itself or be subsumed by Westminster.

Another thing. As a counter to the Declaration of Arbroath it’s said that those mentioned in it were the nobility of the time. That might be true but fails as an argument given the extension of the franchise over the years to commoners is the basis of the various Parliament Acts which in turn implies that in Scotland the people are sovereign. Not forgetting that in at least some of Scotland there was still a clan system and a fair number of the signatories did so as representatives of their people rather than in their own right.

Muscleguy

I think that a lot of the poorer people in Scotland who voted Leave did so for the same basic reasons why they also voted Yes in the indyref. When you think your life cannot get much worse you will vote for any change.

They might need nudging back to Yes but I doubt many of them are hardcore Eurosceptics anyway.

And besides, once you have contemplated Yes it is much easier to contemplate it again than if you never have.

Now the phony war seems to be over is the time to get out there and engage people. Point out how the Brexit is being run for the benefit of the haves, not the have nots with Rights about to be put on a bonfire etc. Whereas Yes is for social justice and a more equal Scotland.

Jockanese Wind Talker

DerekM says at 11:31 am

“Did i say at any time that is what we should do Jockanese Wind Talker did i ?

OK, Derek you must be talking about some other “Irish solution” in your post at 10:44 am (and were not insinuating armed insurrection)?

I’m sure you can expand on your “Irish solution” comment to clear up my ignorance.

Oh, and as for being a Bawbag, I probably am at times.

Anyway, you stay classy Derek 🙂

I’ll wait out for your “Irish solution” clarification.

Papadox

The Tory party conference platform seems to be missing the red paint? Subliminal message?

A country that works FOR EVERYONE (in the establishment) no peasants wanted.