The world's most-read Scottish politics website

Wings Over Scotland


The third question

Posted on July 01, 2012 by

We’re bored of the “debate” about a second question in the independence referendum. The facts are plain and beyond any sensible dispute:

(a) the SNP has a majority government, and therefore a legitimate democratic mandate to conduct the business of government – including the referendum – any way it wants.

(b) The party’s 2011 election manifesto promised a referendum – it did NOT, contrary to the No camp’s constant assertions, specifically promise a single-question one. (A lie the media bizarrely never challenges.)

(c) All referenda in the United Kingdom are advisory rather than legally binding, so the reservation of the constitution to Westminster under the Scotland Act is therefore irrelevant, and

(d) …is in any event over-ridden by the universal principle of self-determination enshrined in the United Nations Charter and the Declaration Of Human Rights.

So that’s that. This blog, however, neither supports a two-question referendum nor believes for a moment that there will be one. As we’ve said numerous times, Alex Salmond has manoeuvered the Unionist parties onto the ground they instinctively want to occupy anyway – that of denying the people of Scotland the right to select their preferred form of government from the full range of choices – and has neither the desire nor the intention to actually put a second question on the ballot paper, which would all but guarantee the failure of the goal for which he has worked his entire adult life.

But more than that, a two-question referendum is unacceptable no matter which side you’re on. If we’re discounting the simple and reasonable “Yes-Yes” formula of the 1999 devolution referendum – as it appears we must on the grounds of Willie Rennie’s mendacious and disingenuous “51% rule” – and insisting on either-or voting, then the only legitimate number of questions for the referendum is either one or three.

Because there’s a group of Scottish voters who are being completely ignored in the constitutional debate so far. It’s a small percentage – polls suggest somewhere in the region of 6% – but it’s entitled to representation just like everyone else. It’s the section of the electorate that wants Holyrood disbanded altogether and full control of all government functions returned to Westminster.

Despite the embarrassing idiocy of most of the people prepared to be seen espousing the view in public (usually ultra-Unionists), there’s a perfectly valid and rational basis for it, particularly from the right wing of the political arena which believes in the smallest possible amount of government. To such people, Holyrood is just a further unnecessary layer of bureaucracy which wasn’t needed for the first 292 years of the Union and isn’t needed now, and while we couldn’t disagree more with their view it’s a legitimate one and they’re still entitled to a voice.

So if we’re to decide Scotland’s future by multiple choice, we need to have ALL the choices available, and that means three questions on the ballot paper: Independence Y/N, Devo max Y/N and Return to Westminster control Y/N.

That allows for all four possible outcomes, with a No-No-No vote representing the status quo. It would have its own complications – voting Yes to more than one option would have to be counted under such a system as a spoiled paper – but frankly anyone incapable of understanding the sentence “DO NOT VOTE YES TO MORE THAN ONE QUESTION” shouldn’t be having a say in the nation’s future anyway, and really ought to get back to Ibrox before they’re missed.

(We’re aware that such a formulation makes less sense than just having four options and having voters tick one, but that’s partly our point – as soon as the referendum is anything but a single question the word “question” ceases to have any useful meaning, so talking of a “second question” in the context of a binary choice is stupid anyway.)

A two-question referendum accepting a Yes/Yes response is in fact every bit as valid a concept now as it was in 1999, but we’ve been left in very little doubt that the Unionist parties would refuse to accept its result this time, so it’s off the table. A single Yes/No question is the best remaining option. But if we ARE to have more than one question, two just isn’t good enough.

The parties of the No camp aren’t only scared of a second question because they know they would lose it. They’re also scared because allowing a second question would put them in the position of having to accept a third, which would split their vote and increase the chances of independence winning outright. (Ironically, in part due to their own frantic polarisation of the arguments since last May.) Their fear of democracy, and their determination to silence the voice of the Scottish people, knows no limits.

18 to “The third question”

  1. Stevie says:

    Another incisive referendum moment. 

    Your ‘blogs’ are ascending to that other level of valuable input that will help shape the debate.

    Though, I suspect the SNP is actually considering a second question.

    Time will tell — Salmond is a gambler, this shouldn’t be interpreted as he takes unnecessary risks but rather as someone who weighs up the options and sizes up the likely outcomes.

    If he thinks the independence single question is not winable then he’ll add a DEVO-MAX second question.

    A complete loss would be devastating for the independence movement — he won’t let that happen.

    I personally want a single question, if that fails, a second referendum immediately afterwards (within 2 months) on DEVO-MAX. 

    Let’s hope we win… though the actual YES win depends on two things in my view (at least generally speaking): 1) getting to everybody and communicating a solid economic argument for independence 2) the destructive force of Tory idealogical austerity and attacks on the poor and unemployed

    If we can communicate the economic argument then we can win, but the Big Debate communicated absolutely nothing of that on BBC this week. 

    It takes 2 years of constant repetitioon of an idea before that idea becomes fixed in people’s minds — that means that argument cannot wait till 6 months before the referendum.

    The Tories are like the scorpion, they can’t help themselves and have never been very smart.  Being sneaky and cunning is not the same thing.  They will probably destroy the poor and sick with no conscience and te Scots will see this… or maybe they’ll stop their natural behaviour till after the referendum.

    If 1) and 2) do not come to pass then I question our chances of eventual success.

    I especially question our chances of success if the pro-indy folk just speak to each other… time to spread our ‘Wings’ and reach the undecideds.     
       
                         

    Reply
  2. McHaggis says:

    Scottish independence is, in my view, guaranteed.

    However, it won’t happen in 2014.
    My heart wishes for a ‘Yes’ vote, but for whatever reason, I am surrounded by those in the ‘No’ camp – the vast majority of friends and family as well as work colleagues are simply scared of what independence might mean. Most of those have swallowed hook line and sinker at least some of the unionist scaremongering.

    Prediction — 40:60 Yes:No in 2014.

    Having said that, I do believe that rather than be a disaster for the SNP, they will sweep to an even greater majority at the very next elections.

    More power for Scotland in the form of some kind of devo-max will follow, then, within another 20 years or so through some means or another, independence will be delivered.

    So, I hope the question is a straightforward yes:no… anything else will be argued as a fudge. Sorry Rev, but a third question for the westminster lickspickles isn’t really relevant here… they lost the last referendum despite their best attempts to fix it with the ‘extra taxation’ question. There is simply put, no going back or even consideration of going back to having no Scottish parliament. If that appears undemocratic then thats only in the context of the 2014 vote – if the 6% want to bin Hollyrood then let them start their own movement to do so, not piggyback on the back of 2014.

    Reply
  3. Holebender says:

    There’s only going to be one question; the independence yes/no question. No political party wants anything else, and the only people who could ever deliver more devolution are dead set against it.

    The SNP people are shrewd political operators and I see no reason to believe they haven’t thought this one through as much as they have everything else. (I’ve also had a pretty heavy hint direct from the mouth of Angus Robertson MP.) The SNP will keep the two question scenario alive as long as possible to show the unionist parties up as the nay-sayers they are and, more importantly, to raise expectations among the electorate. Once people accept that significant change is necessary it will be much harder for them to go back to the status quo than to take the additional step forward to independence. Add in the factor that the SNP will eventually portray the dropping of the multi-question option as being entirely down to those nay-saying unionist parties refusing to allow the electorate to make their preferred choice and the chances of the devo-maxers going for independence rather than no change increase significantly.

    Reply
  4. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “The SNP will keep the two question scenario alive as long as possible to show the unionist parties up as the nay-sayers they are and, more importantly, to raise expectations among the electorate. Once people accept that significant change is necessary it will be much harder for them to go back to the status quo than to take the additional step forward to independence. Add in the factor that the SNP will eventually portray the dropping of the multi-question option as being entirely down to those nay-saying unionist parties refusing to allow the electorate to make their preferred choice and the chances of the devo-maxers going for independence rather than no change increase significantly.”

    Yes. That’s what I’ve said Salmond’s strategy is all along.

    Reply
  5. John says:

    I sincerely hope that we achieve independence in 2014. If we don’t though, and the SNP win a majority of Scottish Westminster seats in 2015, doesn’t that mean that we get independence anyway ? Excuse my ignorance if that’s a daft question.

    Reply
  6. James Sneddon says:

    McHaggis  It is the opposite with me.  All friends and family are in the YES camp. Mostly, if not all, traditional labour voters 20 years ago.  But as it’s been said ‘labour left me’.  To be honest unionists are like nuns , you don’t see as much around as you used to!.  Taa Dahh !      

    I’ll get my coat.

    Reply
  7. TYRAN says:

    re: guy in the picture. Anyone doing a review on last BBC Scotland debate show? I think the message got across last time due to the vast improvement. 

    John – I think with a majority in Holyrood, the SNP can stop the “Union With England Act”, which was passed in the Scots parliament of 1707, and in turn activated the Treaty. I don’t see why not. They are just being kind and asking the electorate.

    Reply
  8. Doug Daniel says:

    It never ceases to amaze me how many journalists continue to state so utterly matter-of-factly that Alex Salmond wants a second question. The tactics are so blatantly obvious, and have been verbalised on several occasions, but they refuse to believe them.

    They’re almost as bad as Ian Smart, who continues to state that there won’t be a referendum, despite both YES and NO camps launching their campaigns. We’re too far down the road to go back now.

    Reply
  9. Paula Abdul's Squirrell says:

     
     
    “Willie Rennie’s mendacious and disingenuous “51% rule””
     
    The resultant conclusion of Willie’s scenario is:

     

    51 percent are For Independence and more devolution

    48 percent are against Independence but For more devolution; and

    1 percent against any change.

     

    Independence is therefore the choice of the majority.

    Reply
  10. I find it interesting that almost everybody seems to assume that asking more than one question necessitates having multiple options on one ballot paper.
    Surely it would be easy and sensible to have multiple ballot papers.  For instance, we could be given a blue ballot paper with the question “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?” and the options Yes and No, and also a yellow ballot paper with the question “If question 1 fails and Scotland continues to be a dependent nation, do you agree that Holyrood should be given full fiscal powers?” and the option Yes and No.  (If you like, you could even have a third ballot paper about abolishing Holyrood altogether.)
    The neat thing about this is that the blue vote could be done according to Westminster’s rules, so that London can’t complain about anything, while the yellow vote would be sponsored purely by Holyrood, and therefore advisory in nature (but almost impossible to ignore by Westminster, too).

    Reply
  11. Macart says:

    @ Doug Daniel

    I’m actually fairly happy that the MSM are punting the FMs supposed desire to have a second question, its a win win.

    Regardless of the slant they put on this desire, the public have been told loud and clear that he wants it there, he’s seen to be proactive in trying to offer true democratic choice. The no camp on the other hand have been very actively trashing the idea since day one. Like others have said, I don’t think Q2 will appear, not without Westminster caving significantly at the last kick and placing devo max as their official offer on the table to retain the union. The chances of that happening are about the same as mine in seeing the sudden reappearance of my hairline again.

    The FM set that one up beautifully and so far Westminster and our obliging British media have been extremely helpful. 🙂

    Reply
  12. John F says:

    A referendum with 3 choices with 1. independence:2. devo-max: 3. status quo. If no choice receives 50%+1 vote out of the total votes cast in the first ballot, a second ballot to be held between the top two choices.

    Reply
  13. James Gilmour says:

    I recommend you read the paper you’ll find here:
    link to futureofscotland.org
    or here
    link to scotlandoffice.gov.uk

    Reply
  14. Scott Minto (Aka Sneekyboy) says:

    @James Gilmour

    Interesting reading and thanks for sharing.

    If we are asking for 2 separate options (with 3 outcomes) then my own preference has always been a multi question single ballot, i.e.

    Do you agree that Scotland should be Independent? YES/NO

    Should the Independence option fail to achieve the required majority (i.e. 50%+1)

    Do you agree that Scotland should have full control over all taxation and spending within Scotland except for defence and foreign affairs (i.e Full Fiscal Autonomy)? YES/NO

    As such, the second question only becomes relevant if the first question fails to return a majority.

    There really is no reason for Westminster to be so against the idea, unless of course they have no intention of offering more power within a devolved framework.

    Reply
    • James Gilmour says:

      Technically that would be possible.  But politically, I think it is a non-starter as it could well (currently looks likely to) produce a 51% independence, 91% devo-max outcome.  That would result in political chaos, no matter how you worded the questions and no matter you stated again and again that the first question had absolute precedence.  The electorate would simply not accept such a result as a mandate for independence.  Quite apart from legal wrangling (for years) it would become politically impossible to implement the independence option.

      But we can avoid all such chaos and possibilities of misunderstand by adopting one of the approaches recommended in my paper.  A clear decision is essential.  That’s what they would give.

      James Gilmour

      Reply
  15. Morag says:

    I’m with Scott.  If we have devo-max on the ballot, that’s how to do it.  Make it clear that this IS our independence referendum, and that is the primary and most important question.
     
    The second question only counts at all IF the primary question fails to achieve a majority.  Surely to God even Willie Rennie can cope with that concept.

    Reply
  16. Scott Minto (Aka Sneekyboy) says:

    @James Gilmour

    So we are back to Rennies riddle then? Well the answer to that is simple.

    51% of people voted for Independence as their first preference.

    Within the second question 91% Devo Max vote there is still 51% of people who voted for Independence as their first preference, so the figures are:

    51% Independence – First Preference
    40% Devo Max – First Preference
    9% Status Quo – First Preference

    i.e. Independence Wins

    Reply
  17. Morag says:

    Precisely.  I’m quite concerned how innumerate some people seem to be on this simple matter.

    Reply


Comment - please read this page for comment rules. HTML tags like <i> and <b> are permitted. Use paragraph breaks in long comments. DO NOT SIGN YOUR COMMENTS, either with a name or a slogan. If your comment does not appear immediately, DO NOT REPOST IT. Ignore these rules and I WILL KILL YOU WITH HAMMERS.


  • About

    Wings Over Scotland is a thing that exists.

    Stats: 6,778 Posts, 1,220,393 Comments

  • Recent Posts

  • Archives

  • Categories

  • Tags

  • Recent Comments

    • twathater on Holiday Relief: “Re “Nothing Going On In Scotland”exposed by ISP I find it eye watering the amount of money given to private…Jun 22, 02:58
    • Hatey McHateface on Holiday Relief: “Knuckle draggers is my insult, Bips. If you intend to try to gatecrash the smart set on Wings BTL, put…Jun 22, 00:36
    • Hatey McHateface on Holiday Relief: “Breaking new ground there, Xaracen, big respect. We are fully entitled to bring the Union to an end and we…Jun 22, 00:31
    • Breastplate on Holiday Relief: “Agent x, It does not follow that Turabdin is talking nonsense because you don’t understand what he is saying. You’ve…Jun 21, 23:28
    • Xaracen on Holiday Relief: “The point, Hatey, is the one that I made perfectly clearly, but which you and others relentlessly overlook and never…Jun 21, 21:54
    • Neil Singleton on Holiday Relief: “Ar what cost (millions) to pander to the less than 1% Gaelic speakers. More speak Klingon than Gaelic in Scotland.Jun 21, 20:50
    • Neil Singleton on Holiday Relief: “Plea deal for Murrell done and dusted (all to keep Saint Nic out of jail). He will pleaded guilty and…Jun 21, 20:26
    • Hatey McHateface on Holiday Relief: “So what does it mean, Xaracen, every time you conform with a law fraudulently and criminally passed by WM? Or…Jun 21, 20:17
    • Xaracen on Holiday Relief: “What do you mean “so what”? It’s an ongoing constitutional and democratic crime, Andy, that’s what; an illegal exertion of…Jun 21, 19:54
    • Hatey McHateface on Holiday Relief: “True democracies are only possible with a mono cultural demos. It is only with a shared outlook that all citizens…Jun 21, 19:54
    • TURABDIN on Holiday Relief: “The world is divided between those who live and those who think about living. «Systems» much prefer the latter, so…Jun 21, 19:22
    • Hatey McHateface on Holiday Relief: “Evidence, perhaps, of the fallacy of UDI. It’s a big unfriendly world out there! Discuss 🙂Jun 21, 19:00
    • TURABDIN on Holiday Relief: “Oh for god’s sake «None of the Above»….okay?Jun 21, 18:39
    • agent x on Holiday Relief: “So basically you have no idea what you are talking about and no answer to my simple questions. Who will…Jun 21, 18:00
    • James Cheyne on Holiday Relief: “It is questionable which country at the moment will break out first, It may not be Scotland, the people have…Jun 21, 17:46
    • James Cheyne on Holiday Relief: “And who will in charge of Ireland or Wales and come to think of it, who will be in charge…Jun 21, 17:40
    • TURABDIN on Holiday Relief: “@ agent x Being less «conventional», one might endeavour to think outside the strictures of the westminster/parliamentary box. Democracy, which…Jun 21, 17:33
    • agent x on Holiday Relief: “I have no idea what your reply means. Who will be the President of the Democratic Republic of Scotland (DROS)?…Jun 21, 17:03
    • Andy Ellis on Holiday Relief: “So what? The actions of people who fashioned the Treaties 300 years ago have SFA to do with our proximate…Jun 21, 17:02
    • TURABDIN on Holiday Relief: “SUCH a scenario would be a critical test of how democratic a Scottish state would be. Democracy MAX, would be…Jun 21, 16:45
    • Chas on Holiday Relief: “Link posted for the 792nd time. Only 208 to go before the magic number. This will probably be achieved in…Jun 21, 16:28
    • Chas on Holiday Relief: “I wonder how long it took you to write that drivel? On the plus side, Alfie boy will be pleased.…Jun 21, 16:21
    • Xaracen on Holiday Relief: “It’s called sovereignty, Andy, and neither party to the Treaty gave their sovereignty up, or agreed to subordinate their sovereignty…Jun 21, 16:07
    • agent x on Holiday Relief: “Once the UN declare that Scotland should be Independent and UDI is declared, who will form the Scottish Government?Jun 21, 16:00
    • Captain Caveman on Holiday Relief: “Indeed Andy. It’s like they’re all trying to outdo each other in the stupidity stakes; one ever more idiotic claim…Jun 21, 15:56
    • TURABDIN on Holiday Relief: “ANY system which creates a psychological dependency might be termed a species of «slavery». In the contemporary world whips and…Jun 21, 15:40
    • Insider on Holiday Relief: “Codeman! Perhaps you and “puir auld alf ” should get a cave together somewhere ! Just think ! You could…Jun 21, 14:47
    • Andy Ellis on Holiday Relief: “@xaracen Where does it say in the Treaties of Union that Scots MPs could overturn the decisions of the whole…Jun 21, 14:43
    • Andy Ellis on Holiday Relief: “I’m afraid for the hard of thinking such hyperbole is de rigeur. See also Ms Goldberg and her recent false…Jun 21, 14:31
    • Hatey McHateface on Holiday Relief: “Defo a synergy there, NC. A sermon on irrelevancy, written in Scots. Looking forwards to it already 🙂Jun 21, 13:58
  • A tall tale



↑ Top