The inadequate tide
This is a story in today’s Scottish Daily Express:
Now that’s what we call some rapid inflation.
When it’s your job to scrutinise the entire Scottish media, sometimes you can become a bit numb to the more surreal aspects of what passes for newspaper journalism these days. But now and again you see something that just leaps out and jabs you in the eyes for its sheer guileless absurdity.
The text of the piece actually goes on to suggest that the “shortfall” in immigration being predicted being is in fact 8,500 – not even ONE “ten of thousands”, never mind several. But the entire article is a mish-mash of gibberish, nowhere better illustrated than in the paragraph where Scotland’s UKIP MEP appears to acknowledge that the country needs more immigration.
We’ve pointed out several times this week that anyone who claims they can predict the population of Scotland 50 years into the future – let alone its precise demographic breakdown – is a raving idiot. The whole story is in any event nonsense, based on a hopelessly short-term measure of the statistics.
But a world where the Daily Express and a UKIP politician are united in attacking the SNP because it isn’t doing enough to attract more immigrants to Scotland, and is brazenly multiplying its figures in order to make that point more strongly, is the kind of world in which we need to go for a bit of a lie down.
Is the UKIP saying ‘we need’ more immigrants?
There’s some excellent new balance at :
link to batemanbroadcasting.com
You do a great job for us, Stu, subjecting yourself to crap like this !
So what’s their underlying point? Are they implying that if Scotland remains part of the Union we don’t need to boost our working age population? What alternative future do they have in mind?
That’s the thing about MSM/UKOK/Lab/Con, you just can’t make out how they see a Union based future unfolding. Truth is, they probably don’t have a clue themselves. It’s always just criticism of a self determining future. Yes offers hope, No offers …. well, what does No offer?
It’s the Express. What do you expect?
Well done for pointing it out, but astonishment factor #0. The whole thing is just done for a headline to implant the idea that we’ll be over-run by towel-heads if we vote Yes.
The idea that the “immigration” will include a lot of Scots who’ve moved abroad and to England, and English people who want a Tory-free life, and Polish plumbers who’ll go back to Poland after they’ve made a nice little nest-egg from mending our central heating boilers, doesn’t seem to occur to them.
Scottish Labour ?@scottishlabour · Jun 3
‘It’s Scotland versus Alex Salmond and Scotland will win” @JohannLamont
playing the man not the ball(Scotland)
The typical obsession with Alex Salmond is very telling. These Brit Nat organs, generally speaking, wouldn’t openly ridicule the idea of a confident, outward looking Scotland, standing on its own two feet, and able and willing to deal with its problems. If they did, even their readers would be outraged. Instead they transfer the target of their assault onto the figure of Alex Salmond. So, readers are invited to loath a man and the cause he stands for, rather than their own nation and, by extension, themselves. It still seems to be working for a lot of our fellow Scots. We all know them “I’m a proud scot, but…”
To borrow from Tom Nairn, Scotland will only be free when the last “Proud Scot, but” is strangled with the last copy of the Scottish Daily Express.
Meantime Lord Pearson seeks 23 new seats in the HoL for UKIP as if c800 unelected £300 a day members of the biggest legislature in Europe wasn’t enough! Perhaps David Coburn will be sitting in ermine once they get rid of the democratically elected Scottish Government.
link to bbc.co.uk
You’re probably right and I feel a bit sick now.
Are we all missing the point here?
I’ll be honest. I am not an SNP supporter but it infuriates me the way the MSM are twisting they’re stance on this.
We are looking at net figures between emigration and immigration. No one is saying that Scotland needs to attract X amount of “foreigners” into Scotland but if you believe these villainous bastards that now pass as journalists then you’d think the SNP were mental. They’re not, they have called it spot on.
If we put a stop to the brain drain for example of Scots LEAVING Scotland to find opportunities overseas then we’ve won a watch. It’s that fucking simple people!
With independence we repatriate the Whitehall arm of our operation back into Scotland. There must be hundreds if not thousands of salaries that we pay for but who pay tax in other parts of the UK that don’t accrue to us. WE TAKE THESE BACK! We increase our tax base and tax take. THEN we fill the gap with migrant workers who we should be privileged and delighted that they chose to come to our small corner of the world.
What your looking at here is the media’s grotesque obsession with “nasty foreigners”. I’d love to know who was behind it all pulling the strings.
bbc site
There was a lot of popular support for constitutional change in Scotland. In 1932 The Scottish Daily Express ran a straw poll in 35,000 homes and found 113,000 people in favour of self-government and only 5,000 opposed.
There’s rather more professional diversity to Polish people imigrating to Scotland than plumbers. Morag. The Poles I know in Scotland are all tri lingual for starters.
Great to see UKIP/BBC’s Jabba the Hutt settling in to the world of the teamGB neocon, royals worshipping, st thatch vernerating hell that is teamGB media.
Or even same old farts and union jocks at progresive/liberal Guardian as usual. Scotland’s so nice, If only it wasn’t full of Scots, so let’s pretend there is none…
link to theguardian.com
O/T Stu, I enjoyed the article about you in the FT yesterday – it was quite mild and not at all disparaging as some comments in the MSM have been about you.
Pity they included a photo of you (they implied it was you) as it totally destroyed my mental picture of you – with wings, cyber armour and deadly weapons
Ah, but its the words that matter; and your words really do!
Just a thought,but what if a number of the worldwide diaspora of Scots decide they want to return to an independent Scotland,are they immigrants,emigrants,or Scots with a right to return?
@bookie from hell:
Someone should reply ‘No, Salmond will, ‘cos he’s genetically capable of making decisions.’
I have to hand it to you Stu
You are up to your neck in this shite every day and you keep going. You sir, are the one person that changed my way of thinking and encouraged me to look else where for true information and an answer to the lies and smears of the Bitter together mob. I thank you for having cleared my sight. I thank you for the incredible amount of data you supply us and i thank you for giving us a base to debate the future of this country. I owe you a drink young man. And i am proud to be a Wings reader.
As for the express, who really cares what they print. They have been shown up for what they are, liars. I can’t think of anyone i know who buys this shit. far too many of us know now that we are fighting the full power of the state and we know their tactics.
As for Jola . she has burned every bridge under herself and if anyone ever trust that disgusting women again then i pity them for their sheer stupidity. Indeed i think labour are a busted flush.
An independent Scotland will have no room for her and her like. “were all idiots ” to her. The cheeky cow.
Rev Stu in the Financial Times for anyone that wants to read it: link to archive.today
Why are furrin newspapers and media attack Scotland and the Scots people incessantly? Do they hate and despise us so much, I’m beginning to feel how the Jews must have felt in pre war Germany. These furrin media types seem hell bent on stirring up troubled in a furrin country and dividing the nation down the middle for their own pleasure and benefits. They really are despicable.
FT rev stu
not a real REV,we can swear then
90% of work himself is impressive
From the FT article about the Rev.
“He sees it as comparable to Scotland’s exit from the 1978 World Cup in Argentina, which many Scottish commentators say contributed to voters rejecting devolution in the referendum the following year.”
The only problem with this of course is that Scots didn’t reject devolution in 1979. The 40% rule which was thought up by a Scottish born Labour mp, cheated us out of attaining devolution. The Scottish people voted for it by a decent majority.
I also meant to say, thanks Cindie for the link.
Once again we focus on pensions and immigration.
Remember that with full employment these problems would be signficantly reduced or perhaps even vanish altogether.
One has to ignore the question of full employment to even begin to construct this narrative. One has to ignore questions of productivity as well.
Think about it: what is the purpose of increasing immigration? It is to increase the working population here. We can do that by pursuing full employment just as well, for the unemployed are or the same side of the “dependency ratio” as are pensioners: they don’t have to be there.
Do not misunderstand: I am perfectly happy to increase immigration and welcome anyone who wishes to make their life in Scotland. But that is not the same thing as “needing” any particular rate of immigration. Take a keynesian approach to employment and once full employment is achieved then we can start thinking about whether this is a problem at all: and if it is, how big it is.
The limits of this debate are being set by plutocrats: and they consider that a high rate of unemployment is both necessary and desirable: don’t forget that
The British media has purveyed better together’s lies and fear tactics. If they had conducted an open, honest campaign without abuse, then it would have been possible to save their ‘union’ despite UKOK not having the argument, people could have put up with the UK’s faults and different political leanings, but they have blown it with the Soviet styled control of political disinformation
I see the separats got a mention but the emergency kitten didn’t even get acknowledged lol.
OT any questions from near Dundee, followed by any answers.
Rabid unionist audience.
Sorry, Radio 4
More dross from the Express, who now say we should heed an ex Secretary of State for Scotland, and full time trougher. Speaking in Stirling ,for Better Together trougher, Lord Reid is expected to say, “Lets make it clear a vote for Scotland to stay in the UK, is a vote to protect Scotland, and the welfare of the people”.
What trougher Lord Reid really means, a vote to stay in the UK will ensure trougher Lord Reid, will receive his £300 quid a day just for showing up in the House of Lords,whilst supping his expensive refreshments, from his taxpayer subsidised canteen, don’t believe a word trougher Lord Red says.
link to express.co.uk
Re NoBamagate, we’d better watch out the CIA have joined Twitter when ask, why or even if they have joined Twitter a spokesperson said “We can neither confirm or deny it”.
link to independent.co.uk
@Andy-B –
Tortuous as it is, we have to grin and bear it while scum like Reid lecture us. This is a man who had no compunction about sending our loved ones and neighbours off to be killed, maimed and traumatised; who steadfastly perpetuated the lie that Iraq was bristling with WMDs; who was well in the loop when Jack Straw lied to the Commons about the disgusting rendition programme which used Prestwick airport for years.
Now? he daren’t walk down any main street in Scotland.
But grin and bear it we must – every time he opens his gob he drives more people into the Yes camp.
Bear in mind that, as Morag says above, an increase in net immigration can be achieved by reducing the number of people having to leave Scotland to seek their fortune elsewhere.
Also remember that in this context someone from rUK moving to Scotland would count as an immigrant although people from elsewhere in the world are just as welcome.
Thanks for the link Cindie!
Can I suggest that if any of us see full stories behind a Pay Wall, like The Herald, FT, Times and so on, we archive it at
http://archive.today?
It’s easy – all you do is paste the url of the page into the box provided. Like I did for this one.
link to archive.today
The FT let me read the article for the price of answering a single silly survey question.
Thanks Cindie and also Brian Doonthetoon for the advice on archiving. I was wondering how that worked!
@Brian Doonthetoon
To be fair to the FT they are not behind a paywall, you just have to register to read it.
@Cindie
Thanks for the link to Stu’s interview in the FT.
Good interview Stu. We wish you well in your endeavours to help acheive our Independance.
You’re welcome everyone. I did exactly as Morag suggests, it didn’t cost anything to read the FT online and they do have some more balanced articles on Indy.
Archive Is as linked by Brian, is a good way of sharing articles in papers like the Guardian and Scotsman too, so when you share an article they do not get the subsequent clicks – good for negative articles, when you don’t want them to get the reader count!
I see in his response to the Queen’s Speech, Ed Miliband supports a new immigration bill –
Ed Miliband’s full response to the Queen’s Speech
link to labourlist.org
Sorry Rev, O/T.
Tomorrow, on Ally Bally’s radio show, we have Aliatair Carbuncle, secretary of state for portsmouth.
The show is on between 11 and 1 and listeners are encouraged to phone in with views/questions.
Next week is the First Minister.
Now that we have had the ooh look shock horror Scotland needs…. oh look a squirrel….sorry where was I think I got distracted there. Oh yes now we’ve had the Express and its immigration scare story we all know what’s coming in tomorrow’s Sunday Express don’t we?
“There will be NO weather in an independent Scotland. S.N.P. determined to prevent weather from occuring in an independent Scotland as it is not in their best interests to have inhabitants of Scotland enjoying the sunshine!”
Baron Reid of Cardowan, mentor and tutor of Gorgeous George Galloway entertainer and songster defender of the faith, aided and encourages by baron Reid of Cardowan.
Defenders of the royal household of Windsor, Royalist to the core. Aye better the gether. Privy councillor a true blue.
Hi Muscleguy.
You only get a limited number of pages if you don’t subscribe.
I registered back when they did their week long series on Scotland, then had to wait at least a month before I could see any full stories again.
I have three different registrations with The Herald (6 full stories per month) and I’ve used them all up!
Thank the gods for the “EU Citizens For An Independent Scotland” Facebook page. They paste full articles from behind pay walls.
Brian,
If you are using windows, copy the herald link, then open ‘New Private Window’ and paste.
All I would ask the Unionist, is for them to specify their methodology for defining what Scotland’s tax base will be, following several decades of independence? What are the factors they have identified, that will reverse a global trend of economic growth depending on the level of parliamentary activity, identified by all serious academic studies I have read on the subject.
P.S. I had a chat with Sarah Boyack today, and was more than a little disappointed with here position on AD re. “blood and soil”. ‘He didn’t say the words and that is that’. She was prepared to accept the housing shortage is due to undue constraint on the supply of land for housing development, but thought we’re best staying in Britain if we want to sort things out. I’ll admit I might not be impartial, but does that not display a clear cognitive dissonance, given the toothless of proposals from Ed Miliband.
I’m now less convinced she is a person of good intent.
on the topic of immigration post independence has anyone done any research yet into how many exiled Scots and other rUK residents we might see being attracted north of the Border after a Yes vote when faced with continuing Westminster rule? There should be no problem attracting the first 10,000 with an estimated 800,000 Scots living in UK outwith Scotland -and I am sure we won’t be too sad if 10,000 of the UKIP voters decide to move south after September…
P.S. Re. Sarah Boyack. Apparently HS2 is fine, though she hadn’t hear of Schumpeter’s gale, so couldn’t say if we should prepare to take a battering here in Scotland.
link to en.wikipedia.org
Its enough to turn Farage into a boozer- hold on a minute!
Hi kininvie.
Thanks for that – I always wondered what the “New Private Window” under the file menu in Firefox was all about but couldn’t be @®$€? Googling!
BTW: it’s on the Mac version as well. I’ll try it later. Thanks again.
Labour MSP Jenny Marra is in favour of nuclear weapons and UKIP are worried about a lack of immigrants.Weird.
Scotland has the lowest unemployment rate (6.4%) of the four UK countries.
House prices are rising faster in Aberdeen than in London.
Scotland, unlike England, exports more than it imports.
link to aanirfan.blogspot.co.uk
@Croompenstein says: “Is the UKIP saying ‘we need’ more immigrants?
Naw! The UKIPPERS say they want mair seats in the Hoose o Lairds.
Aangirfan
Hi, I’m having trouble posting, so I’ll try breaking it down.
I can’t comment on the makeup of the UK employment stats as I don’t know the specific divers behind them. That is my level of ignorance now. As such, I would not be confident in forecasting these drivers will remain unaffected by HS2. At a rough guess, I reckon they will probably tend to respond to the massive infrastructure upgrade (not just railway), the Midlands is about to enjoy. I think the probable concentration of improved transport technology may also have an effect on UK employment opportunities.
test
Test worked but not the desired post nor the next one. Odder and odder.
Aangirfan
Aberdeen is an anomaly that doesn’t accurately reflect the Scottish experience.
And lang may oor lums reek.
Stuart,
I continue to think you should be less absolute than you have been on this particular issue. Birthrate predictions have usually – maybe mostly – been wrong. Population projections about working age adults are often wrong because of changes in the pattern of emigration and immigration. But, projections concerning older people are more accurate, because they don’t move around so much, and age of mortality statistics are fairly robust. In addition, these future older people are already here.The number currently 60 years of age in 2014, will be 81 in 2035 (apart from the predicted number of deaths, and the relatively small numbers moving in and out of Scotland in older age. Scotland needs to face the fact that we are already experiencing a dramatic increase in the number of very old people, and our health and care services are already getting tighter in consequence. At the same time, there is prediction by our Scottish experts, who are not pursuing any kind of political party line, That our working age population is projected to reduce by 4% over the next 20 years. The vast majority of those people are also in Scotland already, although different levels of immigration and emigration will make a difference to the projected figures. So, population projections need to be taken more seriously rather than just rubbished.
I really despise the type of “journalism” that the Express and other papers do.
They’re stoking up division and xenophobia and hate by presenting only one side of the story.
The fact is that if indy Scotland can stop the brain drain, i.e. keep well-educated “natives”, the population will grow naturally. Ex-pats might return, not only to retire but to work and pay taxes in Scotland.
But demograpics being what they are, Scotland will probably need an input from working people originally outwith its borders. You know, immigrants.
Why is it that nowadays the English word “immigrant”, originally a neutral word, now carries negative connotations?
Look to the English press. Falling over themselves to demonise the immigrants and the unemployed and the disabled and the working poor, in their fawning race to uphold the oligarchy of elites; financial, political or aristocratic.
Do Scots want to be part of that when they have a “get out of jail free” -card on 18 September?
You MUST vote YES.
So, population projections need to be taken more seriously rather than just rubbished
The thing is Andrew that under independence any Scottish Govt could change policies on immigration or build the economy to such that our young people would stay.
No one can predict the future but Scotland will flourish as a nation state, please be in no doubt of that.
13th Rung – Future of a No Vote (rough) (Yes Scotland)
link to youtube.com
An investigation into why London real estate has been such a brilliant investment
Over the past 40 years we have seen real estate prices go through the roof. Back in the day, a house was just where you lived. Now it is the middle class’ primary financial asset.
link to pieria.co.uk
How much is the Housing Benefit bill and who are the major landlords?
@ Cameron B
Thanks for that link. I’ve seen Alan Bisset delivering this stark warning on Youtube before but the background broken guitars make it all the starker.
Hey, Alan Bisset predicted the panicked devo-something, tax-based proposals more than six months before it happened.
To be honest, it was obvious to any of us who are clued up about Scotland’s finances and Scottish and UK politics.
Dear Daily Express,
Today’s edition has left me so confused I don’t know whether I should continue with my condescending and racist attitude towards my loud Asian neighbour Edward Trunk and slightly unsettling acquaintance Ping-Pong the Pekinese. Do we want these immigrant hordes here or not?
Please, please, please return to reassuring scare stories about weather predictions, Diana conspiracies, and benefit scroungers. If I can’t rely on the Express I fear my entire world will seem like an acid trip.
Yours faithfully
R. Bear
Nutwood
It’s Paul Cheshire time again.
Green belt scaremongering obscures a housing shortage that is truly frightening
We all know we have a crisis of housing supply and affordability. Over the past four years we have built on average 110,000 homes a year in England, less than the 150,000 homes built 110 years ago in 1904.
link to pieria.co.uk
The Moontrekkers – Night of the Vampire
link to youtube.com
The population of Scotland is about 5.2 million
In 2013, on the UK government’s own seriously flawed figures, there were 203,000 unemployed in Scotland: 7.4% of those of working age.
That takes no account of people who are ineligible to claim benefits: such as women of working age who cannot work because of child care responsibilities – 64,000 on the government’s estimate, or 104,000 according to the SNP. Add to that list those who are unable to claim because they have a working partner, and those who are not counted because they have part time work but would rather be in full time employment. Also add those who are unable to secure employment because they are disabled and suffer discrimination in a tight job market. Many of those people used to work: and could again. Most of them want to.
The total in employment (including part time and zero hours employment) was 2,536,000
So a better figure for unemployment is about 10%.
But let us stick with the official figure of 7% (rounded)
17% of the population is over 65, at present.
18% of the population is under 16 and those are also part of the dependency ratio.
So the way to look at this is to put all the dependents on one side of the equation; that is 40% of the population: and to put all those in work on the other side: ie: 60% are keeping all those dependents
The Scottish government, like the UK government uses a particular dependency ratio: it counts all those of working age as if they were in work: and so puts them on the wrong side of this equation. The effect is to change that ratio from what I give above to: 35% dependent: 65% working to keep them: quite a significant difference IMO
In 1971 the population of Scotland was also 5.2 million. Taken from the census data which is available for that year
In 1975 there were 100,000 unemployed people in Scotland (on a count which was more accurate than we have now). That was approximately 4.7% of the working age population and it was shocking: so much so that as it continued to rise the people rejected the labour government in 1979, an election memorable for the slogan “Labour isn’t working” with posters of long dole queues illustrating the unacceptablity of more than 1 million unemployed across the whole of the UK at that time. It is curious to realise it has never fallen much below 2 million since then: unless you realise that this is a reflection of the shift to neoclassical policy prescriptions which mandate high unemployment as a necessary aand desirable thing
link to hansard.millbanksystems.com
One of the interesting things in this debate is this little-reported projection from the UK government’s social trends survey
The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 has increased from
61 per cent in 1971 to 65 per cent in mid-2008. This rise is not expected to continue, and the proportion of people in this age group is projected to fall to 60 per cent by 2031.
file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/ST40_Ch01_tcm77-137121%20(1).pdf
So even if you accept these predictions (and I fully share Mr Campbell’s scepticism)we are not going to be much worse off by 2031 than we were in 1971, when we were not having a “demographic time bomb” at all.
In that period we see a ratio of 39% dependent to 61% working to keep them, on the conventional way of calculating it: or 42% (rounded) dependent to 58% working to keep them if you put the unemployed in the right place. Either way, we are better off in these terms than we were in 1971. Is that the impression you have gained?
The Polish people I know are all qualified Architects, Engineers …my (excellent) Dentist …my old dear knows Doctors and Nurses in the hospital where she works. I’ve yet to meet a Polish plumber though. There is always time
I can’t wait to get my Scottish passport and return home. As a British citizen married to a non-EEC national, I‘m currently forced to choose between living in my own county or abroad, with my wife and children (all for having the temerity to marry a foreigner and for not having a spare GBP60,000 in the bank). This is a direct result of Westminster’s disgusting immigration policy. No borders indeed.
There must be hundreds, possibly thousands of other Scots in my situation. I’ve been thinking of setting up a group: ‘No Borders for Yes’ perhaps? Any suggestions/help would be most welcome.
Apologies for this post being slightly off-topic, but I’d like to raise awareness of this issue and help demolish the untruth that independence is about building barriers, as the Unionists like to claim.
More info can be found here:
link to jcwi.org.uk
link to theguardian.com
Grant one of the priority pieces of good your campaign should do, is force the Yes campaign itself to say that citizenship will not be refusable for any Scot born in exile, e.g. in rUK, to an emigrant parent. To say they will be no less free to move back here as citizens than they are now under the Union.
Then it will become true that indy is not about buildiong barriers. As this will save us from having to vote No to protect our own diaspora from exclusion and rejection by their own nats, there will then be more chance that your hopes can actually be acted upon.
“Grant one of the priority pieces of good your campaign should do, is force the Yes campaign itself to say that citizenship will not be refusable for any Scot born in exile, e.g. in rUK, to an emigrant parent. To say they will be no less free to move back here as citizens than they are now under the Union.”
They already have said that.
But have they only said it by saying the common travel area will stay, while the other side say rUK could easily end it?
If they have actually said the unrefusable citizenship, which they have kept not saying to me, then wow, released from months of anguish, will be totally delighted to be linked to where they have said it. When see where they have said it, will instantly become a Yes voter.