Some areas still cloudy
Posted on
July 20, 2013 by
Chris Cairns
The world's most-read Scottish politics website
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A tall tale
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That and oil futures.
“Real Pea Souper in there.”
Have any of their forecasts been anywhere close to reality? Serious question as I have only ever seen their corrections Maybe I’ve missed something
Not sure their methodology is as sophisticated as a crystal ball.
That crystal ball should be replaced with a shite laden tombola.
Roll up! Roll up! Come & have a go on Gideon’s amazing shite filled tory tombola!!
“In the fall of 2009, I found myself in Korea with a collection of suit–and-tie-wearing hotshots. On a panel sat Takatoshi Kato, then the deputy managing director of a powerful institution. Before the panel discussion, he gave us a rapid PowerPoint presentation showing his and his department’s economic projections for 2010, 201, 2012, 2013, and 2014.
“… Listening to Kato’s presentation, I could not control myself and flew into a rage in front of two thousand Koreans – I was so angry that I almost started shouting in French, forgetting that I was in Korea. I ran to the podium and told the audience that the next time someone in a suit and tie gave them projections for some dates in the future, they should ask him to show what he had projected in the past – in this case, what he had been forecasting for 2008 and 2009 (the crisis years) two to five years earlier, in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007. They would then verify that Highly Venerable Kato-san and his colleagues are, to put it mildly, not very good at this predictionizing business. And it is not just Mr. Kato: our track record in figuring out significant rare events in politics and economics is not close to zero: it is zero.”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile, p. 134, emphasis added.
This fortune teller clearly doesn’t have the foresight of such esteemed members of society as Terry Kelly.
I know about canaries in coal mines but why does the Treasury have an Office for Budgie Responsibility? If it keels over do we know the UK’s fucked?
OBR
Old Bollocks Regurgitated.
why does the Treasury have an Office for Budgie Responsibility? If it keels over do we know the UK’s fucked?
It’s a bit like the ravens at the Tower of London (if they fly away, the crown falls and Britain with it). If the budgie flies up the leg of Aunty Mary’s drawers, Scotland will become independent. So they keep a close eye on it.
..O/T…..Mel Smith (Not the Nine Oclock News ), has just died of a heart attack
I think wee Geordie Osborne is underneath the table (standing up) kicking the wummin’s shins shouting “Wrong answer! That ball never fails for me!!”
O/T I have only just seen this, which begs the question, ‘why do these things not circulate effectively?’
if you have not seen it, the 900 or so comments really lift the spirit.
Change
Looking to the future, I wonder what slant the two Wallace TV shows planned for next year will take?
link to guardian.co.uk
@ HandandShrimp
Not sure their methodology is as sophisticated as a crystal ball.
More like wetting the finger and holding up. When I was a researcher for the Central Research Unit of the old Scottish Office, the Treasury generally deemed a project’s budget to have been acceptable if it was within plus or minus 50% of forecast. I’m not sure if this is still the standard.
P.S. Can the BoE tell us what the exchange rate for sterling will be, against a basket of currencies, at the end of the month?
A good friend of mine works at the Bank of Finland. He’s got a Master’s degree in economics, he’s a smart guy, and great fun, but he will not understand (or admit) the fact that economic predictions are mostly informed guesses. They can theorisize a lot after the fact but their predictions have a fatal flaw: they assume people behave in a rational manner.
People do not behave in a rational manner (as amply demonstrated by the NO Better Together campaign).
Ask almost any flat/house buyer. The home they bought was the one (within their price range) they fell in love with. They’re not giving much thought to resale value etc. They just want that particular home, and often pay a bit more than they thought they could afford.
People buy all kinds of unnecessary junk just because it’s “nice to have them”, or even because “it’s nice to buy”. That’s not very rational, is it?
About 15 years ago my brother was thinking of setting up an online grocery shop in Lissabon (he lived there at the time) and I told him, it’s no go. Nobody would buy tomatoes without seeing and feeling them first. He and his business partner went on regardless, and the venture didn’t last long. They’d thought it maked perfect rational sense but forgot the irrational human behaviour.
So I take any economic predictions with a pinch of salt, and politically motivated predictions, like the OBR’s, with the whole salt cellar. OBR has been so wrong about oil&gas, I’d rather take the projections of the people who actually work in the industry. Their projections are wildly different from OBR’s. They just don’t get headlined or even reported in the Scottish MSM. McCrone, anyone?