One way or the other
Good luck making sense of this one, folks.
When we asked people in our latest Panelbase poll how they would vote if another EU referendum was held tomorrow, Scots were even more Remain than they were in 2016 – the results were a resounding 66% to 34% in favour of staying in the EU, compared to the 62%-38% of the actual vote.
But three long years of spectacularly incompetent wrangling over the UK’s withdrawal agreement appear to have taken a toll on Scottish voters. Now most Scots think that independence would be better than either no deal or Theresa May’s deal, but they’re slightly keener on the former than the latter.
This is a puzzling switch from when the Sunday Times asked the same question late last year, and independence was more popular against no deal than it was against May’s deal. We’re at a loss to explain it on any level, frankly. But what hasn’t changed since December is that independence still beats both Brexit options, and almost a quarter of No voters would now prefer to leave the UK than the EU.
But as for the 15% of Yes voters who’d now prefer a catastrophic no-deal Brexit to independence (which would still give Scotland the option to leave the EU in future if it chose to), on the other hand, we can only bang our heads repeatedly against a brick wall in the hope that somehow it’ll make the madness stop.
It would appear Scots consider both unpalatable but the PMs deal is the least palatable
when is this poll from …. very good reading and no wonder the unionists are very worried
Not sure it is SO puzzling. First of all the difference is very slight – one percent + for independence.
But one difference between May’s deal and no deal is that, while both would see us out of the EU, the former would see us still following many EU rules, but without any influence (vote) on how these rules develop. We would, as the Brexiteers would have it, be “rule takers”. Of course “no deal” would be a catastrophe, but at least we could do “our own thing” (though what that might be is almost impossible to say).
Its a very marginal distinction, basically about whether you want to be destroyed at once (no deal) or just gradually over time (May’s deal).
What seems more important is that both scenarios are behind independence as an option. Once the full horror of Brexit actually unfolds I would expect this gap to increase to something like a chasm. Have you sent this to the FM?
No deal = hell on earth! (idiots agogo)
Mays deal = doh! double doh! (idiots agogo)
Our deal = sanity – the indy one, the pro-EU indy one.
Odd deal = odd headbangers – the scorched Scotland, out of the EU hard and with Westminster control.
Maybe the majority of Scots have seen the light and are saying to hell with whatever England comes up with let’s just do our own thing
Which is the whole point of Independence
Well if Brexit does happen it will be interesting to see whether these polls actually come off.
Unfortunately, fear might win out in the end like last time.
I think May’s deal has been so universally panned that people have an instinctive aversion to it…probably without knowing all that much about it. I doubt many on the Clapham Omnibus could say what a backstop is much less how it would work.
Brexit is an omnishambles.
some folk still thinking that ‘No Deal’ means remain in the status quo?
EFTA-EEA
Goddamit!
Compromise and win. It’s the EEA that delivers the 4 Freedoms, not the specific route to it.
Do we want to win, or do we not?
Unknowns
1 How many of that 14-15% want (the economically suicidal) option of No deal, no Single Market?
2 How many of the 24% No, Remain now open to Yes would accept the compromise option?
The EU option for Scotland is ‘join’ but we won’t get to even apply if we don’t win an independence vote
Lets hope the margins in favour of Indy swell and swell soon.
This is going to get bad very quickly fir Scotland if not.
UK going down the plug hole with madness of May & Tory incompetent squanderers.
Regarding IndyRef2, I’m stinking with my:
Yes 70%
No 30%
I presume the 15% that Yes voters that prefer No Deal are the independence purists that believe that only total isolation is true independence. No matter what form independence takes if you want to trade with other countries it dilutes your sovereignty a little, all trade agreements do this, all currency exchange rates do this. There is no such thing as complete sovereignty in the current world.
What independence does is give Scotland the power over how this sovereignty is traded, just now this is decided by another country.
Maybe some who prefer no deal think it means we will remain in the EU.
Perhaps 15% of YES voters voted YES because everyone told them we would be out of the EU if we voted YES. Now we will be definitely out of of the EU they are happy with that. Voting for Scottish independence will mean staying in the EU.
There are Yes supporters (I know a couple) who want to see a hard Brexit as they think it makes independence more likely. Or something like that.
doorknocking in Morningside [I know, I know] brings out a higher warmth, if not support, for Independence in the EU than just Independence. I think linking Independence to EU full membership is the way forward
Prof. Curtice has an article on the subject that covers in part leavers apparent preference for No deal over May’s deal.
link to whatukthinks.org
Good figures,,we are moving in the right direction
Big week ahead
Couldn’t agree more, Derick fae Yell – EFTA /EEA as the first step. Gives us the four freedoms of EU plus the flexibility to adapt to the post-brexit situation in England/Wales.
The poll supports the notion that there is a block of yes voters who don’t want EU membership. We ignore them at our cost.
Plenty time for an EU vote following independence when we will know the terms.
I think the idea of Scotland in the EU from day one will give our enemies huge potential to scare voters with visions of hard borders and no trade between Scotland and England/Wales. Why give them the ammunition when EFTA offers a very acceptable compromise or useful staging post to full EU membership if that’s what we ultimately choose.
In a recent poll i took part in unbelievably 25% of those participating thought that no deal was the status quo. Maybe that is the answer that explains your results.
> I think May’s deal has been so universally panned that people have an instinctive aversion to it
^ This.
Mays deal is basically a permanent customs union with EU.
Of the 3 brexit options (EEA, customs union or no-deal) it is sort of OK outcome.
However in order for UK to sign its own trade deals it would require border in the Irish Sea (or backstop to prevent UK taking the piss). This is where things fall over. May is basically at mercy of ERG and DUP who really don’t want a sea border AND wish to trade with rest of world on their terms.
Never trust the Tories!
This is all about keeping their party together.
Screw Scotland and NI.
Skydiver. I think 70/30 is too hopeful. Think of the elderly, the Britnats and the people who have brought their voting patterns with them when they moved here. I hope you’re right, though!
So one Yes person in seven approx in the poll has failed to understand what no-deal means.
After 3 years of daily saturation.
Beggars belief.
They are virtually identical responses so i’m surprised you’re making hay about the differences to be honest. All you can say from this is that independence is possibly more popular than leaving the EU with May’s deal or No deal.
It doesn’t ask whether independence is more popular than a Custom’s union (SNP/Laboury deal) soft Brexit.
The questions are a little wordy.
Interesting nonetheless. Would love to see the straight question put again. Think caveat questions are interesting but are intrinsically loaded (which I know you are aware of and its not your fault, it’s just the way it is).
Loads of folk still think a no-deal Brexit means no Brexit. Perhaps if the question had said “cliff edge” or “crash out” or similar it might have got a different response?
As others are saying, allegedly, there are folks who believe ‘no deal’ means status quo i.e. remain.
If this is true, then some No/Remain voters will opt for ‘no deal’ mistakenly. Indy drops by 1% just for ‘no deal’ suggesting some truth in the suggestions of confusion. However, that’s all within sampling error margins.
Any poll with ‘No deal’ is bound to be suspect. It’s confusing. In common parlance ‘no deal’ means nothing is done, nothing changes.
A skeptic might opine that the confusing phrase arose intentionally as part of the widespread misinformation and subterfuge surrounding the whole issue of Brexit!
Vronsky – but if you want Scottish independence, you’ll surely say that when asked, not go for something that might make it more likely.
Were these asked over the phone, Rev? If so, when you’re being asked so many questions and you don’t have the benefit of having it written down and being able to re-read it, you can get confused and give an answer you might not intend.
It is clear that mistakenly in the minds of many ‘No Deal’ means that the UK calls the whole thing off, and Remains within the EU, as in the TV Game show ‘Deal or No Deal’.
This confusion suits the Boris Jacob Fox Gove camp.
When No Deal hits on the 30th March and Scotland is placed under House Arrest by the English Home land Security Border ‘Force’, then the penny will drop.
Those whose passports expire within six months of their annual pilgrimage to Paddy’s Bar in Tenerife will suddenly be told, ‘you are barred from travel in Europe, your passport is out of date’.
Shortages, business shutdowns, the £ at 75 cents Europe..
The crash will be quick and merciless, and May’s husband will make a killing, probably of tens of thousands of COPD ancients who can’t get their inhaler prescriptions renewed.
Stock up on tinned goods and toilet rolls, and prepare to fend off looters, WoS Readers.
It will be as bad as that.
Only then, conduct a poll, Stu.
I agree with Admiral – some respondents think that ‘No deal’ means we don’t leave EU. That does sound ridiculous, but the proportion in England who thought that was about 20%, from another poll.
Hope with these Polls being accurate but people can be fickle. Change their minds at the drop of a hat for quite irrational confusing reasons,
The Tories on a hiding to none. Quite interesting waiting for their fall. Like Thatcher. Debt away greeting by her own Party.What a total absolute mess. A complete and utter shambles, How long will they last. Wonder what the bookies odds on are. They are probably just as confused with the chaos.
The Tory Party could die out soon. Well past it’s sell by date. A relatively small number of members. The majority male and over seventy. These events could be their death toll. RIP. Thirty years in the wilderness. Just like after Thatcher/Major shambles of their administration. Labour Blair/Brown were just as bad. They should have been put on trail at The Hague for the way they carried on.
Sarah Brown was involved in a Women’s Day Event. Interview on the Media about (child) poverty. The affects and relieving it. Her husband caused poverty in the world to increase along with their associates. They acted illegally under International Law, knowlingly and denied it. They benefited tax free and wasted taxpayers money which could have relieved poverty worldwide. £Billion/trillion of it. Their actions increased terrorism. They were warned by millions of people and ignored their wishes. They have a bloody cheek lecturing others. Total lack of self awareness. Absolutely no apology, remorse or regret. Just swept under the carpet. They are supposed to be religious but break the Ten Commandments without a thought and increase poverty of thought by their irrational, illogical actions.
Iraq War, Dunblane and Lockerbie kept secret for 100 years. No one who experienced these events will never know the details. Or any answers.
Brexit is starting to cause violence in the society. The annoyance and anger spilling over. Just like Thatcher the violence and unrest and riots are increasing. Thatcher’s tenure was very violent.
@Pedro says: 11 March, 2019 at 12:19:
” … EFTA /EEA as the first step. Gives us the four freedoms of EU plus the flexibility to adapt to the post-brexit situation in England/Wales.”
It does nothing of the sort – it has Scotland paying the same as having full EU membership but no say whatsoever in anything the EU says or does. The EU is Scotland friendly and may even allow an independent Scotland to continue as the United Kingdoms legacy member state. Before planning for a life outside the EU is it not sensible to wait and see if we are out of the EU.
The United Kingdom is legally just that – a bipartite union of two kingdoms – one of which wants out of the EU and the other wants to remain. The EU are not daft – they know this and can just state the obvious. The United Kingdom is split with one kingdom voting to remain and the other to leave. The EU has the power to make both happy simply by recognising the United Kingdom as an actual disunited kingdom.
Capella says:
Gulp! I have never thought about it that way. Clearly a lot of folks believed the BT lies! Perhaps some who were very keen on leaving the EU chose YES as a means of achieving that.
We tend to believe YES/Leave people will prioritise Indy over Brexit, perhaps some don’t see it that way. Perhaps there are people in Scotland who see getting away from the EU as overriding. I know two and they both say they will still vote Yes. Not a very big sample!
The othering of other people and the worry and anxiety is starting to spill over in violence. Especially in the rest of the UK. It could increase further. Until the Tories are out of office. The usual Thatcherite suspects. Their actions cause violence and unrest in society. Deja vue.
Thank goodness for Devolution and the SNP Gov standing up for Scotland. That makes a difference now. What a relief and comfort. They care for others.
Interesting. I wonder what the answers would be if the question was phrased along the lines of remaining in the SM and CU and a decision on full EU membership left until after Independence. In practice that’s what would have to happen in any case. If we go for Indyref2 we need to break the link between Yes and SNP policies.
The Polls manipulate the vote. People change their minds because of results of the Polls. It can change their behaviour, intentions and expectations. On the answers of small samples and sections of society. In tight margins that is why they always get it wrong. Censored and fined many times, with suspect funding and illegal data manipulation. To make money. Millionaire Pollsters claimed as expert getting it wrong to many times but still getting remuneration. Breaking the rules of their association with impunity. Polls are supposed to be prohibited in the Purdah period. The electoral rules broken with impunity.
@Roland Smith
I don’t see how this break can be done. As the SNP are the only major party supporting independence, the media are only going to focus on their policies as the independence option. If there was some other party in the independence mix (the Greens are not large enough) then this would change the narrative. As things are we are stuck with it.
The other parties are happy for the game to be played this way as they don’t have to put forward any policies just knock down the SNP’s.
SNP should now say Norwegian Style deal Independence.
Advantage it is not the EU but near enough. For the fishing community we have control. No Nuclear weapons, no more foreign wars like Iraq. A winner.
Good news to start the week.
Enough to say there’s an appetite for a chance to choose.
It would be the apogee of vileness if this poll were to be referred to at Westmidden.
O/T
NHS England scrapping 4hour waiting time targets.
We have people who voted YES in 2014 but they would rather stay in a no deal UK now. That is a special kind of moronic thinking by anyone’s standard.
Alex Neil is the only candidate I can think of.
Wish you wouldn’t use Panelbase I think they always screen me out when I am asked my age which is 76. Even if I say I am retired I am screened out.
Apparently May today has just been talking to Juncker on the phone.
link to twitter.com
Now Kuenssberg of the BBC reporting that she could be on her way to Strasbourg tonight for a face to face meeting with Juncker.
link to twitter.com
Looks to me like just another farce?
@Roland Smith
What are Yes policies?
@Roland Smith says: 11 March, 2019 at 12:47 pm:
” … we need to break the link between Yes and SNP policies.”
Absolute rubbish – the SNP’s raison d’être is Scottish Independence. Everything else is secondary and it always will be.
The SNP will split up after independence. I cannot see the SNP, in its present form, do better than one term after indy.
Some will go to a left wing Scottish party, some to a centre left party and some to a right of centre party. I could see the main part of the party become the left of centre party but under a different name. It is after all called the Scottish National Party, not the Scottish Nationalist party so the main body, post independence, would be, like the current Holyrood faction, dedicated to running Scotland for the benefit of the people of Scotland. like the current party title suggests The Party of the Scottish Nation.
The ones fighting mainly for independence are the MPs at Westminster while those dedicated to the betterment of the people of Scotland are mainly MSPs at Holyrood. There is a wide spectrum of political beliefs in the SNP but the cause of independence holds them together.
If some Scottish folk can’t tell the difference between ‘no deal’ and ‘status quo’ how do you expect them to take on board the other options open to Scotland like EFTA for example.
It’s a problem right enough.
I hear on shortbread news that £900bn has fled the London money market services sector to Dublin and other place in France and Germany in the last few months. Nothing to worry about then..
PS:
NHS England: moving goalposts?
link to archive.is
In another part of the Union picture.
link to amp.theguardian.com
Karen Bradley. “People who have dealt with her say the learning curve remained flat. “She’s a lovely person but just doesn’t do her homework,” said one. “Little more than an ability to smile and remain cheerful while surrounded by calamity,” said the Irish News.”
well said, Robert Peffers @ 1:26 pm.
The overarching goal is Self Determination, then political nature will take its democratic course.
Perhaps May will ‘threaten’ to resign tomorrow if her ‘Meaningless’ Vote fails yet again.
I’d vote for Mark Francois the Mars Bar munching Billy Bunter of the Blue Tories, their very own ‘Fat Owl of The Remove’, to replace her.
Esther McVey joins Ronald MacDonald in lying in a last ditch attempt to save their well paid Brit Nat jobs.
In 2020 all EU members will be ‘forced’ to join the Euro, according to the Blonde Damp Squib.
A blatant lie from a serving politician?
Never happened before.]
All this and that Dick Leonard offering free bus travel to the Duke of Rothesay.
Their UK is crumbling about their ears..and no’ before time.
They will not be allowed to plunder Scotland’s resources any more.
We’ll need to build New Towns on the fifth of Scottish land controlled by the Posh Boys shooting grouse for sadistic fun to accommodate the tens of thousands of workers heading North to work for the relocated Mini, Jaguar, Land Rover, Nissan, Toyota, and Peugeot car plants which will start to decommission in ‘third Country’ England at 23.01 pm on the 29th of THIS MONTH.
It’s that mad and suicidal Down There.
I could understand no voters here in Scotland, who despite all the evidence, may still view remaining part of this bankrupt UK, even with a no deal Brexit, to be safer than independence.
I find it difficult to understand any yes voters from 2014 who now think remaining part of the UK is a good idea..
though I do know an elderly shop steward who votes SNP but he does not support independence, and I don’t believe anything I would say to him will convince him to do so.
Oh jeez, the 15% former “yes” voters who want a no-deal Brexit are the people who have since bought in to the Brexit anti-immigration seduction.
Offering EFTA to these people won’t make a blind bit of differnce.
But offering EFTA to the increasing number of people who want to remain in the EU is just plain moronic. Just another form of self-harming Brexit when what people obviously are crying out for is maximal possible continuity.
I am noticing a definite softening approach to Indy and the SNP from some prominent Labour folk and BBC reporting staff as they see their feathered nests slipping away. These are the social climbers preparing the way to jump ship.
@Thepnr
Quick update on Brexit:
Connelly says
There’s talk of a Juncker-May meeting in Strasbourg this evening. This follows another phone call between the two this afternoon.
link to twitter.com
Schinas said earlier today
European Commission on #Brexit: “It is now for the House of Commons to take an important set of decisions”
Spokesman Margaritis Schinas says “no further meetings at political level are scheduled”, as talks remained deadlocked before crucial Brexit votes
link to twitter.com
EU27 ambassadors were briefed this morning on the latest Brexit developments. State of place is described as “bleak.”
link to twitter.com
Anybody’s guess what comes next!
Cannae wait for Labours free bus travel for all wae sweeties for the weans and plates of soup for the homeless all inclusive entertainment and karaoke plus T shirts for students
It was the Tory or Labour Guy with the red tie that nobody knows who offered it all because his boss in London Jermy wan Knobi told him he’d be important if he did and we’d all vote for whatever party it is he’s in
But nobody knows
I once got into trouble by suggesting that if you ask stupid people a difficult question (eg. the Brexit one) you shouldn’t be surprised if you get the wrong answer. Maybe that partly explains the conundrum Stu.
Nana @ 13:53,
There was a story on the R4 lunchtime news that Dis-May is going to amend the “Meaningful Vote” motion to tack on a clause to remove the backstop or somesuch, in order to “win” tomorrow. She will presumably then jet to Brussels and demand that the EU recognise the “support” that she has.
Which the EU won’t. They have the stronger hand, and don’t take kindly to English exceptionalist arm-twisting.
So tomorrow it may actually be a meaningless vote. And when the cunning plan fails – as it will – there will be even more chaos and confusion, and the blame game will really begin in earnest.
People are often prisoners of their circumstances. Not so long ago in agricultural areas you could bet of the turnout being, “Folla the maister”. I was brought up in just such an area. Many farms still were based upon horses and farm labourers.
Tractors were few and WWII made sure getting a tractor was almost out of the question. On voting day, “The Maister”, rounded up the entire workforce, loaded them onto horse drawn carts and took them to the poll. He then stood and watched them while they voted. You could bet they voted as the Maister voted for anyone suspected of not doing so was not fee’d oan at the next Feeing Market – out of a job and out of a home.
Then charged with the heinous crime of, “Having no visible means of support”, and there was no NHS back then. The same applied to the Mills, factories, foundries and so on. The towns round about, like Pumpherston, had rows of workers identical houses owned by the companies and there too it was often, “Folla the Maister”, you could bet your boots the Maister did not vote labour.
There are many reasons people cast utterly stupid votes but the main reason these days is still mainly total idiocy.
I get the impression from polling that there’d be about 10% to 20% who, with one or other options, would choose to wake up tomorrow to ‘a zombie apocalypse’ over ‘no change’.
@Robert 2.11pm
yes that is what I’m reading from a few different sources.
link to irishtimes.com
Also Brady seen going into No10 earlier
link to twitter.com
and tomorrow we could have a meaningless, meaningful vote
link to twitter.com
EFTA I believe is the way to go, we will be able to trade and allow time to sort out our priorites as funds come in.
I believed that would be a better route since 2013.
We have full control of our seas and all other things, to join the Eu is something the people can decide a year or so in.
As an aside,while we all have a good idea of how the finances of New Scotland money will change our country for good.
One thing that I have heard seen discussed, is Scotland will have it’s own DVLA, all kinds of vehicle transport will channel through that, and bringing just another stream of cash to the country’s coffers.
It would be a lot of cash that goes south at the moment.
Without our albatros of Westminster, Scotland will soar.
In my opinion we have the EFTA lobby to thank for the SNP distancing itself from the Constitutional ramifications of 2016 and flying so many kites trying to keep Soft Brexit Yessers on side.
Brexit was a straightforward binary division of the UK’s component parts, with one Sovereignty choosing for Europe and the other Sovereignty choosing to leave. The differences were irreconcilable, and so the UK had a Constitutional dilemma that was nicely black and white, determined by obdurate lawful principles and absolutes, rather than fickle public opinion.
A soft Brexit, no matter how soft, was always on the wrong side of this Constitutional watershed, leaving Scotland’s Constitutional Sovereignty impoverished and sidelined, pandering to Soft Brexiteer Yessers who couldn’t see past their desire to see Scotland out of Europe, and the deeper Constitutional ramifications buried in a shallow grave.
I would much rather have seen the whole of Holyrood doing a “Theresa May” in 2016, shrugging their shoulders saying the sovereign people have spoken and their will must be respected, and leaving Soft Brexit Yessers to resolve their demons and choose either for Scotland or Brexit. Don’t forget, Sovereignty required neither mandate nor majority to prevail. You fight the law, the law wins.
In simple arithmetic terms, that would have left a pro-Brexit Yes minority seeing their principles conflicted, rather than the whole edifice of Scotland’s Sovereign legitimacy being paralysed and sidelined because might have delivered a short term blip in the polls for YES. That is when the YES campaign should have launched, to help conflicted YES Brexiteers come down on the right side of the fence.
EFTA is a victory for Brexit, it delivers nothing like the “status quo” of our EU Membership, and Constitutional certainties bound up in EU treaties and legislation cease to hold Scotland secure while the rest of the UK seeks to drag out into the mid Atlantic. Scotland would deny itself the leverage of Europe’s backing, and if you don’t think that is important, just ask yourself how Ireland would have fared standing up to Westminster with only Norway and Iceland supplying the political muscle?
I get it. EFTA people have a preferred model in their heads for Scotland’s economy. That’s fine. Maybe you’re even right. I doubt it, but let’s not exclude the possibility and respect each other’s perspective. But in harsh objective reality, EFTA does nothing to help Scotland break free of its ties with England’s Brexit misadventure, whereas Europe has all the gravitational pull of Darth Vader’s Death Star, and it will be England, nor Scotland, left isolated, short of friends, and shopping for bargains when the stores are all closed.
Get Scotland Free. Priority Objective 1. Everything else is secondary, and determining Brexit on Constitutional principles delivers that objective. EFTA and any other Soft Brexit option simply does not, but worse, it also compromises those very Constitutional principles.
Sorry to offend EFTA folks, but option EFTA should have taken out back and shot back in 2016, and maybe, repeat maybe, resurrected as a EuroRef at some later date, but critically deferred until after Scotland has had a chance to settle into its own sovereignty and EU membership, free from BBC Europhobic indoctrination and prejudice.
Do not resurrect EFTA at this time. It doesn’t compromise Brexit, but it does compromise Scottish Sovereignty and the prospects for our Constitutional Independence.
I remember a student friend who would sign up for anything, including being polled, and then answer in the most ludicrous contradictory way they could because they were an idiot. Maybe they are still doing it.
@ Nana 2.21 pm
There is the impression now of a government of people rearranging the deckchairs, looking busy and appearing to be trying to do something, anything apart from making a decision or allow someone else to make a decision.
We are being held hostage by May’s intransigence.
Nana @ 14:21,
I’m curious about the 3rd link (the 2nd one was duplicated)…
@SilverDarling
“We are being held hostage by May’s intransigence.”
Sure seems that way SilverDarling
Oops sorry Robert,
link to twitter.com
OT
It appears that common sense has broken out in the Home Office for once, despite the “hostile environment”, and the HO apparently “mislaying” the relavant file.
link to bbc.co.uk
relevant not relavant….doh!
OT
Hi Wingers. Just got my third Tory flier through the door in Banff and Buchan, for David Duguid with the usual rubbish on it. No to a second Indy ref, Only the tories can stop the the SNP yada yada. I would’nt be surprised if there is a snap GE given the volume of leaflets in the past 2 weeks.
Keep the faith ! They are terrified of us.
THE MONEY IS TALKING, AND IT’S LOUD AND CLEAR.
It says the UK is going down, but we’re not going down with it.
link to uk.mobile.reuters.com
“Brexit fallout on UK finance intensifies: think tank
Huw Jones
LONDON (Reuters) – More than 275 financial firms are moving a combined $1.2 trillion in assets and funds and thousands of staff from Britain to the European Union in readiness for Brexit at a cost of up to $4 billion, a report from a think tank said on Monday.
UK lawmakers are due to vote on Tuesday on an EU divorce settlement. But with less than three weeks to go before Brexit day on March 29, it is still unclear whether the deal will be approved, whether departure from the EU will be delayed, or whether it will happen without agreement.
The report by the New Financial think tank, one of the most detailed yet on the impact of Brexit on financial services, said Dublin alone accounted for 100 relocations, ahead of Luxembourg with 60, Paris 41, Frankfurt 40, and Amsterdam 32.”
link to youtube
Fungus & Tory leaflets.
Without a second ‘Awakening’ for Independence, or something as yet unknown, and not necessarily Brexit-related, then British State Propaganda and UK government over-funded leaflet campaigns and the like, are going to be too effective among the politically illiterate, the gullible classes and the disengaged, to be ignored or discounted.
In addition, the establishment in recent years of computer-based systems of data harvesting and micro-targeting, should send shivers down the Independence movement. Remember, this Tory Government will stop at nothing to keep Scotland in its Colonial grasp.
And yet, the Brexit avalanche is still roaring down the slope of UK politics with still no sign of it stopping nor of the final damage. And, the EU has yet to move on Scotland’s status.
From the perspective of Independence, it is still too early to call however, as most commentators see it, and like them, ‘hold your fire’ & ‘wait and see’ represents for me the clever money. Others differ, but that’s for another time.
Nana @ 14:53,
Much obliged! And very worth it too.
Ian Dunt contributes:
That about says it all.
His thread continues at
link to mobile.twitter.com
Each time you think the bottom has been plumbed, UKGov in its desperation somehow finds a new low.
How anyone can still believe the Tories are fit to even be in charge of a stall at a church jumble sale truly beats me.
A great deal of “money” can be transferred at the last minute and a lot of it will be used by some to make a fortune from the Pound crashing. These are the same people who give large donations and black money to the Tory Party.
Get ready for a really rough ride and don’t expect the Labour Party to be of any help.
Does the 15% point to blood-and-soil types who have swallowed the anti-EU propaganda? You probably know who they are. We do have some, they aren’t all yoons.
@Robert J. Sutherland
I don’t think anyone believes in the Tories from any side of the debate. At the moment we are all helpless passengers screaming at the driver….”look out…cliff” ( and his name isn’t Cliff)
Though Alasdair Galloway does point to the choice of being immediate diminished by one’s own hands, or protracted diminishement at the hands of another. Rough call.
The EFTA-EEA 3 (Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway) do NOT pay the same as EEA membership
As a percentage of GDP Norway pays exactly half what France does (0.16% compared to 0.32%)
Lichtenstein pays 0.03% – a tenth of what France pays
Iceland doesn’t pay anything at all as it’s just a net financial beneficiary of EEA membership
Nor do they have ‘No say’, as the two pillar structure, decision shaping and the joint committees give them policy input. Yes they don’t have a Minister in the Council of Ministers, so are ‘rule takers’ to that extent. But by the time any policy gets to the CoM rubber stamp, all the key decisions were long made. Europe, specifically the EEA, works by consensus. The Commission takes positions to the EEA Council arrived at by qualified majority voting (or would if it ever got to a vote). The EFTA-EEA three take their own individual positions. So do they have more, or less, influence than a small EU member state?
Third, the idea that Scotland could continue as the United Kingdoms legacy member state is simply wishful thinking. Unicorns and Wish trees.
There’s nothing in Lisbon that makes that even a remote possibility. The Commission and THREE successive Presidents have made it abundantly and repeatedly clear that the EU option for us is ‘join’, after independence. It even has a name – the Prodi Doctrine.
With all due respect to those who disagree – we need to lose the magical thinking, get real, compromise – and WIN
Alasdair Galloway wrote on 11 March, 2019 at 11:33 am:
“What seems more important is that both scenarios are behind independence as an option. Once the full horror of Brexit actually unfolds I would expect this gap to increase to something like a chasm.”
My thoughts exactly, Alasdair, well said!
As the last three years indicate parliamentary democracy can be bad for good government. Unfortunately, it was the popular variety that got us into this mess. Take your choice, both versions are subject to fits of the irrational. Is it an English thing, I wonder? Scots, a rational people, ought to know better.
The Tories have treachery in their DNA, but they usually save it for the last, when their opponent thinks its over, has put away his weapons and is resting or better still, asleep.
Colonising half the world in building your Empire, does teach you a thing or two.
I am not totally enamoured with the EU due to Catalonia and Greece but as breeks and many have said WE NEED INDEPENDENCE BEFORE ANY DECISION CAN BE MADE BY SCOTLAND ,
As RP writes what is the point of EFTA when you cannot influence the EU’S direction of travel yet have to adhere to all the principles of membership and pay the tariffs , that’s like being a member of the golf club , paying your fees , following the rules , but not having any input to what the rules should be
The point is that EFTA potentially increases our chances of winning a Yes vote in the first place
Plus accession to the EEA is potentially 3-4 years faster than via the EU route (because it’s immensely simpler). EFTA Convention Article 56 if anyone cares to look it up
A number of articles make it clear that a fair proportion, if not a large proportion, think No Deal means the status quo prevails instead of the biggest self inflicted bourach of all time. This must surely mean more detailed questioning is needed. I would expect this would push up Indy numbers and widen the gap with staying in the union.
Jim Hagart
The media is controlled by the right-wing. The right-wing want Brexit. Don’t expect the media to explain Brexit properly, that might lead to an outbreak in rational self-determination.
You’re a slave of the British state, the BBC says so, get used to it.
#DissolveTheUnion
It’s a damning indictment of our Controversial State MSM that some people actually think No Deal means the UK is not leaving the EU.
If the opportunity arose it would be great if someone made this point on a live broadcast.
We really need proper scrutiny and the power to hold the MSM to account for their failure to accurately convey and inform society of such important events and processes.
I’ve met several folk that didn’t understand what No Deal means. One example being a pretty smart elderly neighbour who only accesses “news” through radio & tv with the occasional paper, and she came to the wrong conclusion.
Anti Europe no. Anti EU nope. Happy about Spain Nope. If option is independence in EU or Uk union in brexit the former gets my vote.
Strictly speaking, the 1% difference is not statistically significant, so it’s more true to say that Scots prefer independence over either Brexit option to the same degree.
I still can’t believe there are people out there who want Independence but are prepared to vote against it if it’s not their kind of Independence with respect to the various International club options
We live in interesting times indeed.
Russia passes law to jail people for 15 days for ‘disrespecting’ government
If that happened here
The next Wings get-together would be in Barlinnie!
link to archive.is
In Scotland, in 2014, to the disbelief of most of the rest of the world, officially, 53% voted No to Independence.
In England, in 2016, to the disbelief of the rest of Europe and perhaps elsewhere as well, 53% voted to leave the world’s most successful and integrated trading bloc.
In both cases, rational, logical thought based on the evidence and the likely consequences, demanded Independence in Scotland and Remain in England.
But the reverse happened. The brain lost out to emotion in both cases. Or so it appeared.
How do we explain this similarity?
The most obvious answer is that huge well-organised campaigns were conducted, both of which were designed to obscure fact-based evidence, while at the same time trying to alter how the population felt about what was at stake, specifically to make people afraid of Independence and staying in the EU.
Looked at separately and individually, the case for ‘rigging’ or ‘interfering’ is debatable.
But placed side by side, either the results are a coincidence, or, they are in some way connected.
Now we know that the Westminster Government had an overwhelming reason to see Independence rejected, but did the same people want the UK to leave the EU?
If that were the case, then it changes our perception of how the UK is being run, and by whom, for whom.
I suspect a percentage of the electorate are significantly confused and some think still that a no deal Brexit means that nothing changes. Other believe that “Mrs May’s deal” is somehowe meaning ful whe in fact the EU has conceded nothing significant more than some time for the UK to negotiate its leaving.
Cannot understand the logic of those that want pure Indy. Dream land.
Good news as just over 55% now support Indy. Let’s hope Brexit is not cancelled.
Fungus @ 3:09 pm
“I would’nt be surprised if there is a snap GE given the volume of leaflets in the past 2 weeks.”
The elections for the parliament of the European Union are being held in May.
An ‘extension’ to Brexit would mean the participation of the UK.
manandboy says:
For me, the similarities between IndyRef and EURef were two fold.
Firstly the winning sides made grandiose and far reaching positive promises which they had no intention of keeping. In their own way, the NO and Leave winning offerings were going to be impossible to deliver. Were the final results achieved by garnering enough gullible voters? IMO, definitely.
Secondly the winning options represented change. Yet in both cases there was no manifesto, no plan. IndyRef should have been the Indy plan versus the status quo, but by voting day the NO option had evolved into significant changes within the UK, all undocumented. Perhaps EURef was worse because there was no status quo option – Cameron’s paltry renegotiate versus colossal change which was also totally undocumented. So in both referendums there was no binding statements of what the wins actually meant!
Excellent Indyref2 campaigning will now begin OVER the half way mark!
(If aye understand this correctly) Notice how the base respondent random sample collected was for No-501 to Yes-390. If the random sample collected happened to be the other way around… THAT Yes figure would be a whole lot higher.
Countdown to the next unmeaningful No-Deal vote:
link to howmanydaystill.com
(Disclaimer: Countdown subject to further Tory delay or extension)
Aweright skydiver, cheers for your previous, aye enjoy your new contributions 2, good tae see ye posting.
Hamish100
I almost got punted from here due to my doubts about the EU, which I still have. They are mostly related to the Euro and the ECB though, so of no immediate threat to Scotland’s social policy if it chooses to retain it’s EU identity. Unfortunately, the EU’s response to Spain was limited by the EU’s respect of national territorial authority. Something British nationalists tend to turn a deaf eye to.
Leaving the EU in such a haphazard fashion is simply lunacy on stilts! It is the antithesis of prudent pragmatism. Ergo, Brexit is paradoxically both anti-social and anti-Conservative. Bummer. ;(
“One way or another, I’m gonna find ya
I’m gonna get ya, get ya, get ya, get ya
One way or another, I’m gonna win ya
I’m gonna get ya, get ya ,get ya, get ya”
Sounds like a good YES campaign song!
Oh, I wanna know what the don’t knows are in this poll. Are the tables out yet? I guess not yet.
P.S. I know I didn’t come close to getting punted but don’t tell the Rev.
O/T
Latest on the Brexit show
Brexit: May heads to Strasbourg for last-ditch talks with EU
link to archive.is
link to independent.ie
link to opendemocracy.net
Twathater, if the UK leaves the EU without a deal and we join Efta and Schengein but not the customs union,( exactly the same as norway ) , then we can do our own deal with England . We will have a potential for massive exports to that country, be it Oil and Gas, Leccy, water or Whisky amongst others so it would be in our interests to have a good deal with thrm.
yesindyref2 says:
@ 7:02 pm
Ha ha, you cannae beat a bit of Blondie.
Here’s some rare footage of her parodying the Unionists in the Glasgow shipyards and she’s even rockin the orange look!
Unionists be singing:
“Ohh Ohh, what are we gonna to do?
Union, Union, Union City blue.”
link to youtube.com
OT – GERS
OK, there are basically three different ways of tackling GERS and the notional deficit.
1. “GERS is crap”.
This might be a good soundbite, and if you can get away with that fine, at least it puts some doubt on the GERS figures for those who know little about them apart from the Unionists “£10 billion deficit” or whatever they say.
2. “GERS does not reflect the finances of an Independent Scotland”
This is good, and accepted by most perhaps all economists, and most unionists, the sensible ones at least. But it doesn’t say WHY. Nor does it give any idea of how much that effects a real deficit as opposed to the notional deficit. The explanation is all too often “we can spend money differently, like no nukes”. Doesn’t go far enough.
3. “GERS does not reflect the finances of an Independent Scotland, nor does it take account of any economic benefit and revenues accrued on money attributed to Scotland in GERS, but spent in London or the rest of the UK”.
Then all we have to do is give examples, like the Foreign Office which would be in Scotland say Edinburgh rather than London with all the employees, civil service, grounds maintenance, outside security and so on. Or the Defence Ministry, the MOD, forces HQs etc.
I’ve got to check the actual figure, but if say it’s £30 billion spent “on behalf of Scotland” i.e. for reserved matters, then a way of putting this as it’s virtually impossible to get down to the full nitty gritty is this:
“At an average of 60% of expenditure in Scotland returning to the Independent ScotGov in terms of revenues (IT, NI, VAT, CT), this amounts to anything between £0 – and £18 billion extra revenues for Scotland.”.
Kevin Rudd, former Australian PM’s views on ‘global Britain’ and ‘Empire 2.0’ …
link to archive.is
… forget it!
EU is the market everyone with half a brain wants access to.
Is the independence in the options:
real independence
or
The SNP’s 2014 version of independence-lite which offered parliamentary independence but for all practical purposes was a sort of devo-max in a union with the UK?
I know a few folk have suggested it will take the pain of Brexit for a while, before people come around to Indy.
I have a feeling though, that when max austerity and pain are the norm and even the Scottish government can no longer mitigate; people may well believe that if the UK cannot hack it, Scotland will be even less able to survive. It may actually entrench people in their institutionalism.
Its been a niggling thought.
Option 2 by the way isn’t that great, as is seems to imply that GERS is brilliantly accurate as it stands. Because of the economic benefit of the likes of the Home Office and all UK Gov departments and civil service going to London and the commuter belt, it isn’t actually at all accurate even in a notional sense. Unfortunately it’s the official ScotGov line, and the SNP one. So far …
Indy 1st.
Indy 2nd.
Indy 3rd.
Indy only.
No Indy, we have NO FUTURE, well, no GOOD future.
Up pops Coco, now we know how desperate they are.
Pathetic effort coco, and you a pretendy indy supporter an all….
@Les Wilson says: 11 March, 2019 at 2:37 pm:
” … One thing that I have heard seen discussed, is Scotland will have it’s own DVLA, all kinds of vehicle transport will channel through that, and bringing just another stream of cash to the country’s coffers.
Oh! For goodness sake, Les. Of course Scotland will have its own DVLA – why the hell would an independent Scotland allow a foreign country to road tax Scottish nationals?
It will have all its many, many tax cash cows now going to the United Kingdom Government coming directly into the Scottish government’s coffers. Bear in mind there will no longer be a United Kingdom government after independence will there? The United Kingdom is a two kingdom partnership and it thus ends when Scotland ends the Union.
You’ve been watching, listening and reading far too many English Nationalist propaganda. There will not be an rUnited Kingdom after The Kingdom of Scotland ends the United Kingdom – what remains is the independent Kingdom of Scotland and the Independent Kingdom of England.
The exact same two kingdoms that signed the Treaty of Union in 1706/7. You don’t sign up to a treaty as the Kingdom of England yet when the union ends leave as the rUnited Kingdom. Neither a United Kingdom or an rUK is possible with only one kingdom. It came in as the Kingdom of England and it goes out as the Kingdom of England. That is what is known in law as The Status Quo Ante.
So there you go every form of taxation that Westminster levies upon Scotland instantly stops when the two kingdoms disunite. Yet numpties try to claim that an independent Scotland would be poor. Note that up to 98% of the oil & gas revenue presently gathered by the Westminster Government comes from Scottish waters. The road fuel duty you pay when filling your vehicles fuel tank, alcohol duty, betting tax VAT and all the rest will immediately come back to Scotland. As will company tax and every other tax Westminster collects.
Ronaldo Lemonhead may turn out to be the most influential leader of the Branch Office ‘Leaders’ when history describes the ‘Devolution Years’.
Labour supporters must be leaving in their droves following the latest Party Beano, during which they could only muster up a couple of hundred to sit at the feet of the Great Jezzo; and that includes 80 or so dead Tree Scrolls’ hacks, and Glenn Campbell and his entourage.
Surely even the rabid young Momentum Marxists are looking elsewhere for a beacon carrier.
He is a tired old backbencher with an allotment in Islington, and it is beginning to show.
Ha! Good old Scottish Auntie wie a kilt.
link to archive.is
Iain Mhor@7.35pm
That’s a bit of a sgt Fraser post – we’re doomed – doomed I tell you.
Cheer up – independence is on its way.
“The SNP’s 2014 version of independence-lite which offered parliamentary independence but for all practical purposes was a sort of devo-max in a union with the UK?”
That’s an out and out lie. It was Independence, full Independence, that was offered in 2014, with the ability for the Scottish Government to make all the decisions IN Scotland, that affect Scotland.
Yesindyref2@7.22pm
Can a I suggest you printout the Wings post on this subject matter and hand it out – this should do the trick for everyone who can read and has a reasonable level of intelligence.
re. the UK’s accounts and how GERS may or may not reflect Scotland’s economic performance. Britain is not a functioning democracy, in the modern sense of the word. It is an overly centralised unitary state that struggles to find a post-colonial identity suited to all national tastes.
British Labour are talking dishonestly when they mentioning federalism, or do they intend a written constitution of the nations, and how will they get the people to abandon the monarch as head of state?
link to rtpi.org.uk
The basic structure of the devolution settlements
link to press.lse.ac.uk
Audit 2017: How democratic is the overall set-up of devolved government within the UK?
link to democraticaudit.com
I am so convinced of the merits of independence, that I even voted for the SNP’s indy-lite version (as a starting point).
But recognise the huge advantages of real independence where Scotland controls the economic and political levers, instead of Westminster and the UK Treasury.
@Cubby
Of course you can suggest it, this is a free posting forum.
On the other hand if you have 1 minute for an elevator pitch, to someone in a multi-storey car park who happens to say “What’s all this £10 billion GERS Deficit thing all about, and what will happen with Independence”,
it might be good to say to them that
“£30 billion (or whatever) is actually spent on our behalf and most of it not in Scotland, with Independence that means a large part of that £30 billion of spending coming home to Scotland, which means well paid jobs for you, your partner or your kids, and all the rest of the jobs like consultancy, building work, maintenance, cleaning and even spending in restaurants. Deficit? What deficit?”.
Which do you think is more effective in one mimute flat before the lift reaches their floor and they throw a bit of paper in the nearest bin?
I’m no expert in evolutionary psychology or even ‘potato-head phrenology’, but Reginald Lambert simply doesn’t have a face I trust. Human’s spent a long time without complex theories about communication, so I guess we should trust ourselves if we think someone comes across as a bit disingenuous. Rodrick Lampoon is a prime candidate for this very human response to fakes, and deserves the cold shoulder, IMHO.
Re Colin Alexander @ 8.09
What other kind of independence is there? By definition independence means complete control.
@Colin Alexander
Spit it out Colin, say you want us to have our own currency. You’re in good company there, I too want our own currency from Day 1 – with sterling running in parallel for a time, years if neccessary.
So why come it with this “indy-lite” crud?
Hi Colin Alexander at 8:09 pm
You typed,
“I am so convinced of the merits of independence, that I even voted for the SNP’s indy-lite version (as a starting point).”
You’re not really acquainted with subtlety, are you? Your attempt to rewrite the question that was asked in 2014 is puerile.
The question asked in 2014 was “Should Scotland be an independent country?”
Straight and simple – “an independent country”. What was the “indy-lite” component of that question that you managed to squeeze out?
Jean-Claude Junker to Treeza:
“No you again?”
@BDTT
I think it was a pluke.
Peter Grant MP tweeted this cracker:
……….
Breaking News from the Prime Ministers trip to Strasbourg.
She’s got a deal !
£35 return from Ryanair.
……….
Mike Cassidy @ 6.30
Aye and there’s a fair few of us who who would have to brush up on this self identifying thing…
If we wanted to go
Hi yesindyref2.
One of those stubborn plooks (check spelling!) that, no matter how hard you squeeze, refuses to erupt.
Been there, done that. CA is still learning. His plook is standing firm and proud.
@BDTT
I thought that the moment I posted it. One of those words you say but don’t often write!
Then there’s “zit” of course …
@Derick fae Yell says: 11 March, 2019 at 4:05 pm:
” … With all due respect to those who disagree – we need to lose the magical thinking, get real, compromise – and WIN”
Due respect? What due respect might that be, Derek fae Yell?
You do not show due respect by assuming you are talking to idiots.
You are entitled to your own views but do not assume, as you do, we are idiots.
Here are a couple of wee facts your conclusions fail to have taken account of.
The first is that Scotland has the longest coastline in Europe and that wee fact brings several benefits in its wake. Scotland has massive areas of the seas as her territorial waters and these include fishing grounds, oil & gas fields and strategic locations. Scotland has better than 25% of Europe’s potential wind, tidal, sea current and wave renewable energy sources.
Scotland is a net exporting country and Scotland, unsigned with any European group of powers has freedom to join, or refuse to join, and of them that Scotland chooses or chooses to reject. Scotland holds a great hand – and they all know it. Not least of them the Kingdom of England. Scotland will not be wandering around Europe proffering a begging bowl as she goes.
The EU, or anyone else, will ignore Scotland at their peril. The EU is very well known for compromise. There are many well documented cases to prove that point, not least the case of East Germany after German re-unification.
It really is quite simple – the EU will grab Scotland as a member state or lose Scotland as a member state – and they know it.
It’s a confusing question, does it mean independence in the EU or independence after brexit? Can’t see how you can read anything into the answers when the question is so open to interpretation and the former scenario is not an option.
Hi Gfaetheblock.
It means “INDEPENDENCE”. Whatever happens after we achieve that “INDEPENDENCE” is up to the sovereign people of Scotland to decide.
Why do you find “INDEPENDENCE” a difficult concept to understand?
Good post, Derick fae Yell, 4.05
When the Union is dissolved, we will have to set up the national infrastructure which includes things like currency and how and when the transfer from sterling happens. This requires time. Membership of EEA/EFTA will allow us to keep trading with Europe while this work is in progress.
Once Scotland is fully functioning as an independent state, we can make an informed decision about which relationship with Europe suits our needs best.
The whole point of independence is the people of Scotland get to decide (be it EU or EFTA).
No need to make political decisions in advance and alienating others. In an independent Scotland I would want to see left / right wing parties discussing how best to run OUR nation.
Joanna Cherry says
Important thread. I’m hearing UK Govt could be well on the road to getting enough to get their deal through @HouseofCommons. It won’t be with @theSNP support. Big decisions ahead for Scotland #indyref2
link to twitter.com
Yesindyref2
Okay, I’ll come straight out and say it: I believe indy Scotland should have it’s own currency.
That should have been the policy in 2014 too.
Hopefully, that lesson has been learned and talk of again sharing the Pound Sterling is just a temporary deception exercise to keep the English Crown’s agents guessing.
@Derick fae Yell says: 11 March, 2019 at 4:30 pm:
” … The point is that EFTA potentially increases our chances of winning a Yes vote in the first place.”
Oh! Aye! Care to expand a wee bit on that claim, Derek fae Yell? Or is it just your humble opinion? Strangely enough I was debating just that point with a couple just a few days ago.
Now these pair were of the opinion that it was madness for Scots to want to leave the United Kingdom while wanting to stay in the EU. Their claim was, “What’s the point of leaving one union only to jump into another one – that’s not independence”.
” … Plus accession to the EEA is potentially 3-4 years faster than via the EU route (because it’s immensely simpler). EFTA Convention Article 56 if anyone cares to look it up”
Oh! Get wise, Derek fae Yell. How long did it take East Germany to get into the EU? Furthermore, as I keep pointing out Scotland has complied with all EU terms since before it even was the EU and the Scots are all EU citizens with EU Citizens rights.
Want to know which country EU member state will be first in the queue asking for an independent Scotland to be a member state? That is especially if Scotland makes moves to be allied with someone else.
Spain will head the queue when it suddenly dawns upon the Spaniards they will not get access to the Scottish Fishing grounds if Scotland is not an EU member state. Spain not only has Europe’s largest fishing fleet but fishing is perhaps Spain’s major industry.
Just why do you imagine that England is so desperate to retain their hold over Scotland, Derek fae Yell? It sure as hell is not because Scotland is a drain upon English resources.
It quite simply works like this, an independent Scotland need not be beholden to anyone. Scotland has been dealt a great hand in the game.
The various World powers and trading groups can bluff to their hearts content but when the chips are down they will all rather have Scotland on the inside rather than on the outside and they might just get only one chance to make the right choice.
If the EU rebuffs us we simply go elsewhere and stand against them rather than with them. It will be their choice – let us go or throw us out and we might be working against them by the time they decide they want us.
All the people sitting around a table discussing Brexit are English and all the towns and factories that are visited do discuss the potential threat of leaving the EU are in England.
Scotland simply does not exist.
Ignore “what currency will you use” arguments.
iScotland can link its currency to any currency it wants in the short term following a YES Vote.
GBP £ might not be worth it.
Imagine it was linked to the USD $ or Euro € and therefore worth more than South of the Border in real terms?
Jim Rogers knows:
link to google.co.uk
“If Scotland leaves they are going to take their oil with them and the pound could go down a great deal. It would certainly go down under one US dollar.”
Hard as the Norwegian Kronor in the long term the Scottish £ (or Spondooly) as well!!
The BritNats will be BEGGING for a currency union with us post Indy (so much so it’ll make TMays current Brexit related trips to Europe look dignified)
Derick fae Yell @ 16:30:
Only in your imagination. It’s an unsubstantiated assertion, a piece of wishful thinking of your own without any evidence to back it, and repeating it over and over as you do on here from time to time doesn’t make it any the more true. (It isn’t SNP policy either, so how likely is that to happen?)
This Brexit fetish of yours could just as easily fail to convince anyone. Too weak for the remainers (of whom there is a significant majority), who just want stability and everything to stay the same, and insufficient for the diehard isolationists, who can’t abide any “rule taking” (as we have already seen in spades from the ERG, for example).
It is this muddling of another unknown factor for most folk, jumbled into the business of indy, which is the real “chasing after unicorns”. Especially when it comes from a longstanding Brexit-lite advocate for whom it is dogma.
@Derick fae Yell
Good posting, exccept that Hughes talked about a transition, a holding pen, while Scotland formally applied. But the SNP (Sturgeon I think) have also mentioned the possibility of EFTA as a step on the way. Yes, I too think EFTA / EEA could be fast, as an alternative or step on the way.
@Colin Alexander
That’s more like it, we could be scant days away from an announcement regarding Indy Ref 2. Time to batten down the hatches and take no prisoners.
@ Nana – re the Joanna Cherry tweet, I noted some very bitter comments in the thread from Gerry Hassan. He thinks there won’t be an Indyref2 till 2021. He thinks the Independence parties will lose the 2021 election.
Wishful thinking or just spite?
Brian Doonthetoon
Aye that was the problem: The question was indeed: Should Scotland be an independent country?
But the SNP campaigned on sharing the Pound and an assumption of friendly mutual cooperation and sharing of UK institutions for years to come.
David Cameron’s fair and friendly fake face soon disappeared once the real campaigning began.
When the UK Govt and NO campaign declared there would be no mutual cooperation, it created huge uncertainty in the YES campaign’s basic premises on how an “independent” would be run.
So people voted for Devo-Max as part of the UK, rather than the Yes campaign’s Devo-Max with separate parliaments.
An independence campaign should be campaigning for independence, not for continued sharing of the UK Pound and many other UK institutions.
cirsium
I’m afraid I just don’t see things that way. Why seek to change things immediately after independence? We are currently in the EU and fully comply with EU law. The EU appear amenable to Scotland’s swift re-acceptance. So why not take the time to re-discover ourselves as a nation, within a club we’ve been long-standing members of. We can decide our long-term future at any time. Are you not simply against the EU?
Brian Doonthetoon,
The question has 2 differing versions of of what UK could be, deal or no deal, which are clearly different and understood. But by having independance without any qualifiers (out of Eu, ‘deal’ style set up, in Eu, in Euro etc) allows folk answering the question to project whatever they want independence to be into the definition. Therefore the question asks to compare well defined bad scenarios with a scenario that the respondant can define for themself. That is why I do not understand what the independnace is in this scenario is meaning.
Germany definitely isn’t Independent, neither is France or any of the 27 they’re all erm eh well something else but definitely not Independent, because eh erm well sumdy telt me that an ah don’t waant Independence under any circumstances but the waans that big Tam in the pub telt me
So ah waant tae be in the EU but no in it really because in it and out of it a wee bit’s better than right in it
That’s what ah wiz telt onyways
Hand me my revolver!
Robert. I voted Remain in 2016.
But that doesn’t mean we have a magical way into the EU after independence.
Correct we don’t know if joining Iceland and Norway would win.
We DO know that 14-15% of the electorate, who voted Yes, don’t want to be in the EU. We can tell them they are stupid, Labour style. Or we can compromise and win. Purity or Victory?
We are barely scraping over 50%, after 2 and a half years of complete Brexit shitshow. Support for independence is a solid 20% below support for the EU. Purity or Victory?
@tconnellyRTE reports as British Prime Minister Theresa May is in Strasbourg for last-ditch talks over a Brexit deal
video
link to twitter.com
Robert. I voted Remain in 2016.
But that doesn’t mean we have a magical way into the EU after independence.
Correct we don’t know if joining Iceland and Norway would win.
We DO know that 14-15% of the electorate, who voted Yes, don’t want to be in the EU. We can tell them they are stupid, Labour style. Or we can compromise and win. Purity or Victory?
We are barely scraping over 50%, after 2 and a half years of complete Brexit shitshow. Support for independence is a solid 20% below support for the EU. Purity or Victory?
East Germany is not an EU member state. It isn’t a state at all now. There was no East German accession. It abolished itself and an existing member just became a bit bigger.
OT
Herald currently has “Poll finds most Scots think independence beats any Brexit” as top story on the website, and second is “UK oil production up almost 9 per cent last year”
We live in interesting times.
@Capella, perhaps a bit of both from Hassan
Mmm, nice comments on that Indy / Brexit poll story, they’re doing the job for us
Love this comment: “Most Scots” would be something like 80% or more.
£30Billion approx Scottish Gov spend. – Plus (UK) gov pensions/benefits, Scotland pays the (UK) gov pensions and benefits. They come out of current revenues raised. There is not a (UK) pension/benefits fund.
It was £16Billion when unemployment was 7%. With unemployment now 3.5%. The amount must be lower. Ie less unemployment benefits must be being paying out because more people are working, (pro rata).
Pension payment at that time was £6Billion in Scotland. It was £78Billion UK wide total (NI? They have a separate budget) Scotland pays less in (UK) Gov pension pay out (pro rata) Pensioners in Scotland, on average, died younger comoared with the rest of the UK, There are more pensioners in Scotland (pro rata) as part of a % of the population. (They die on average younger)
Pensioners in Scotland were more likely to work 9%. In the rest of the UK it was 6%.
Austerity and health cuts in England have meant 17% (12,000?) of elderly people have died younger. The life expectancy rate has began to lower. Pensioner are dying soon than expected.
In Scotland people are living longer. The gap between elderly death age in Scotland and the rest of the UK is declining.
An increase of pensioners have 2nd (private) pensions. Pensioners pay tax. The most impoverished pensioners are elderly ladies. They did not have pension rights when they worked P/T. At one time it was only full time workers who could join work pension funds. P/T workers were denied pension right. Married women were also encourage to pay a lower stamp contrubution because they received pension right on the husband’s contribution. Couple pension payments. More women/men were married, Women live longer than men on average. Wonen can inherit their husband pension funds, even workplace ones.
Cherie Blair took the case to advocate to block P/T women’s pensioners being given pension rights retrospective. They was a case taken to court to ague that women who worked P/T but were denied pension rights should be compensated. It lost. It would have been quite difficult to implement. Finding all the information etc, Pensioners can receive top up benefits and Council tax rebates.
Scotland raises £60Billion in tax revenues a year. It goes up every year. More pro rata than the rest of the UK. With growth it could be more
Why it could not afford £6Billion+ or more in pension payments is just ridiculous. A tenth+ 1/10. Or manage a pension fund investment. The UK raises £628Billion. (uK.Gov accounts) It increased from £553Billiom, There was not need for austerity or cuts, The monies were there to alleviate poverty and fund public services. Not cut them. Workers now have to make compulsory pension contributions along with employers. A percentage of their wages/salaries,
Aberdeen Asset Mansgement managed the biggest investment fund in Europe. Martin Gilbert supported Independence. So did lots of business/financial people. George Mathewson? Another private bank owner. It needs a central bank. Now being set up. It seems to take a while?
The last Scottish budget passed at Holyrood worth £42.5Billion spending. Derek MacKay said it. In a Statement. It might include some of the pension or welfare benefits spending.
The AWPR and Forth Road Bridge crossing must be cutting emission in Scotland by 60% or more. .
Journeys being taken that took 1,30hrs are taking 30 mins for thousand/millions of car. Cutting 2 hours off people’s working day. Millions of people. It is just amazing. Saving fuel and energy. Less anxious, stressful people sitting in queues and hold ups for hours.
Yet the unionists and greens fought against the project for years, Campaigned against it. They spent p £Billions of taxpayers on legal expenses and appeals and putting up the cost massively. Wasting public money which could have been better spent, For £2.5 Billion the Scottish economy will benefit £Billions in better conductivity and less fuel and energy. Saving time money and emissions, A win, win, Brilliant investment.
Gerry Hassan has a frustrating future in an independent Scotland, if he continues to self-identify as British. Never a patriot of Scotland, always looked to Fabian (English) socialism and party first, IMHO.
@Brian Doonthetoon says: 11 March, 2019 at 8:31 pm:
… One of those stubborn plooks (check spelling!) that, no matter how hard you squeeze, refuses to erupt.”
At what point does one of those, “stubborn Plooks”, become a boil?
At the point where it does is the Scottish expression valid, “Enough tae mak yer bile blid”?
@Ken500
A next step will be to improve the A86 between Inverness and Abredeen, in stages. Not cheap but worth it.
Twa Roberts, explain to me if UK leaves with no deal, and becomes a third country to the EU and trades on WTO terms and Scotland is in EU and has to trade on those terms with England/Wales
( I presume There will be Irish Unity in that scenario) How our substantial exports to England/Wales will be maintained.? Or if we join EFTA and Schengen with no custons union are we able to set up our own Free Trade Deal with the UK? Also are the 15% of former Yes voters who would prefer to be in a union with England rather than Europe more likely to vote yes in a new Indy ref if we are in EFTA?
During the 2014 campaign Gerry Hassan was hedging his bets. But now seems hostile to SNP while hoping for a RISE revival. Conflicted I think.
Tonights meeting between May and Juncker, this is how Tony Connelly of RTE undrstands it.
“As I understand it, the UK wants to declare that it will be able to walk away if the trade talks are dragging on, the transition runs out + the backstop is upon us, and it’s not true to its purpose because it’s not meant to be permanent etc etc”
Full thread here.
link to twitter.com
The crofter’s resistance to ‘internal colonisation’ whilst respecting and having a care for the land,
‘The problem in the Highlands involves historical, racial, economic and social considerations entirely different from those in other parts of Great Britain. We are dealing with a community which has never been industrialised and resists any attempt at industrialisation. Land is the basis of its existence and determines the forms of its social life. It has refused to acquiesce in any of the attempts to change the method of holding or using land which have been made in the last 150 years, and the legislature has been compelled to meet the claims it has made to be allowed to live its life in its own way’
‘Moreover, the coercive land redistribution proposals and socio-economic disparagement of the 1950s and 1960s must also be understood in the context of at least 200 years (and arguably far longer) of ‘Leviathan’ and ‘privatisation’ policies for land tenure change in the Gàidhealtachd…
These policies were accompanied by discriminatory attitudes from those imposing the policies towards those on whom the policies were being imposed…
This majority population, in response, has organised itself to employ a variety of means of resistance as part of an on-going struggle for the freedom to be able to think and act differently’
link to thecommonsjournal.org
Mary Barbour who led the rent strikes in industrial Glasgow – caused WM to take fright and pass emergency legislation to control rent increases.A determined and dignified individual with a just cause and a mass of support across the social spectrum that could not be ignored.
link to firstworldwarglasgow.co.uk
Now is the time for all of Scotland’s citizens the length and breadth of the country to think and act differently to a WM cartel that has collectively lost its marbles- it’s not a difficult choice.
Connelly says
Here goes:
Barnier’s offer on Fri that “best endeavours” could be actionable by the UK at independent arbitration level appears to have unblocked things. ie, the offer of a Joint Interpretative Statement which commits both sides to best endeavours/good faith + is legally binding
link to twitter.com
There will probably be a couple of years of negotiation after an Independence vote.
Plenty of time to sort out a currency and many other contentious issues.
Although the EU will undoubtedly welcome Scotland it might be a good tactic to offer our EU sceptics a confirming vote on memembership after Independence.
When it comes to promises, a sure fire winner in an Inderef would be to guarantee to bring pensions up to the EU average.
The #EU has stood its ground @BBCNews Europe Editor reports from Strasbourg.
link to twitter.com
Lots of ‘scoobied’ expressions on the mushes of the Tories. Is it or is it not a breakthrough? Most concluding – ‘naw, it’s no’……
link to twitter.com
O/T
Unite union want the pay deal that has been agreed by the Councils and Council employees to be re-opened in the light of the teachers’ deal.
Live press conference may and Juncker from Strasburg for any interested just about ot start.
link to ec.europa.eu
There will be a joint press conference by @JunckerEU and @theresa_may in next few mins in @Europarl_EN, Strasbourg #Brexit
link to ec.europa.eu
link to twitter.com
Re EU, it looks as though the Tories are just playing around with words, akin to rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. Apologies to anyone with relatives who died on the Titanic.
Tory slimeball, David Liddington just now in the HoC in reply to the SNP showing just what a snivveling wee Scotland-hating tory sh*te he really is.
Marcia, at 1024pm
Yes. It looks like pure smoke and mirrors stuff, with little time deliberately arranged to allow for any checks.
This latest deal stinks. It is rushed deliberately so as the MPs won’t have time tomorrow to properly scrutinise it.
Typical establishment bullshit, where they think everybody other than them buttons up the back.
And yes, that prick David Lidington is one little Englander slime ball.
Leader of DUP ( not an MP, not a govt minister) and leaders of ERG were briefed in advance on tonight’s statement. I asked @DLidington if leaders of national govts of Scotland & Wales were also briefed.
He refused to answer.
link to twitter.com
I’m getting the impression that “nothing has changed”
Tory MP: “I’m afraid Keir Starmer asked the killer question. Is there a single phrase of the withdrawal agreement different from what was agreed in November? The answer is no.”
link to twitter.com
Reports from commons say Lidington has claimed legally binding changes. I’m told Dublin’s view is legally binding assurances.
link to twitter.com
Statement from EU.
“Our agreement provides meaningful clarifications & legal guarantees to the Withdrawal Agreement & #backstop. The choice is clear: it is this deal, or #Brexit may not happen at all. Let’s bring the UK’s withdrawal to an orderly end. We owe it to history.”
Full statement letter included in tweet.
link to twitter.com
My own view is this won’t change a thing, May’s deal still gets defeated on the second meaningful vote regardless of tonight’s manoeuvrings by May. The withdrawal agreement remains unchanged.
Switched on the telly about 9.30 tonight to glance at Geislers BBC nine news.
Had sound off, a capton comes up, 43 billion barrels of oil extracted from the N. Sea to date. At 45 dollars average, I think it comes to just short of 2 trillion.
Last week, they were celebrating 9 billion thro the Ineos Grangemouth pipeline alone.
It would make you efin weep.
Re a comment above, come Brexit, I also hope there is no deal, the UK crashes out and we, Jockland, get a good kicking.
We, Scotland, is just plucked enough that it dos’ent hiss too much. I hope that changes and riles the population, not us, out of it’s torpor.
Is that the Prime-minster using sharp practice in parliamentary procedure, in order to ensure majoritarian direct democracy and the forcible re-imagining of the British constitution? I’m aware that Parliamentary sovereignty was removed from British constitutional law, but is the government’s actions constitutionally legal? What legal protection can the British constitution provide to residents of Scotland, against institutional discrimination (see Brexit).
Does the Prime-minister respect the international rule-of-law and support the principle of universal human rights? I think not and that should concern those living in Scotland, in particular. We have been singled out for particularly discriminatory exclusion in order to emancipate xenophobic English nationalism.
#DissolveTheUnion
I note that Oil and Gas U.K. has estimated that identified recoverable oil reserves over the next thirty years have increased from 8 to 12 billion barrels.
There are probably billions more yet to be discovered but the potential tax revenues on 12 billion barrels at say $60/barrel are enormous.
An independent Scotland operating at a normal 30% tax on profits would benefit by at least $150 billion on that output.
Don’t let anybody tell you that oil is worthless. At the very least it is a game changing bonus.
TMays “Legally Binding changes” not so much smoke and mirrors as pish and wind.
View from Dublin:
1. Withdrawal Agreement is unchanged
2. Joint statement is a legal interpretations of what’s in the WA (agreed by both sides)
3. Unilateral statement is UK talking to themselves.
link to twitter.com
Important detail buried in the EU’s letter, because it makes it clear just how much against the clock the UK finds itself.
link to twitter.com
yesindyref2
It’s the A96.
Just watched May and Junker – haven’t a clue what additional legally binding assurances she thinks she has negotiated.
Anyone help me out here?
I’ve just read that Joint Statement issued after the circus tonight and it is woeful. It is worse it’s utter waffle and there is nothing there legally binding or any different from what the position was months ago.
There will be chaos tomorrow, May’s coat on a very shoogly peg and I don’t see her lasting a hell of a lot longer. Certainly not if there is any kind of lengthy extension to Article 50.
This stage is coming to a head but I fear it’s just the start of another step into the unknown and a long way to go yet.
Just published
link to ec.europa.eu
@cirsium says: 11 March, 2019 at 8:45 pm:
” … When the Union is dissolved, we will have to set up the national infrastructure which includes things like currency and how and when the transfer from sterling happens.”
How many times must the truth be posted here on Wings before the truth is understood as truth by some commenters?
The Pound Sterling is NOT the property of either Westminster or the Kingdom of England. It is agreed in the Treaty of Union to be the currency of both United Kingdom signatory kingdoms. Not only that but it is an international trading currency.
That means it belongs to The Kingdom of Scotland every bit as much as it belongs to the Kingdom of England. Furthermore, Westminster is NOT the parliament of the Kingdom or the country of England it is legally the parliament of the two partner United Kingdom.
It is also agreed in the Treaty of Union that the Scottish Banks can legally print their own Banknotes so the Kingdom of Scotland already has its own distinctive currency and every Scots banknote is covered in value by a special deposit account in the so called Bank of England. This money does not belong to England it belongs to Scotland and must, on independence be paid on demand to the Scottish Banks.
Now just to show how stupid is the idea that England owns the Pound Sterling here is a simple fact. The so called Bank of England has never belonged to the Kingdom of England. It was a private corporation until it was nationalised by The United Kingdom, not the Kingdom of England, in 1946. It is thus partly Scottish.
Lastly, if you had bothered to read the statement made by the First Minister she did not say that Scotland would create a new currency she said Scotland would have its own pound. Not a new currency but the pound Sterling that is as much Scotland’s as it is England’s. Now this is not in any way a new or a daft idea. There are a great number of countries that, for example, use the Dollar as their currency.
Even, for example Canada and The USA both use the Dollar as their currency without problems. The two currencies are not, though, tied to each other but there are some countries that do use the Dollar and tie it to the USA Dollar. It simply is not a problem. The point is that the Pound Scots need not be tied to the Pound English.
However, on that score let me make a very relevant point. When Gavin McCrone wrote his infamous report for the Westminster parliament it scared the life out of them. To the extent they marked it top secret and hid it away for decades.
The reason why is clear for anyone who bothers to read it. It said that an independent Scotland’s economy would harden so much against the English pound that it would embarrass the English government. That means it wouldn’t be the Scottish economy that was weakened – it was that of England. In todays economic conditions that is even more true today than it was then.
Now before going any further let me say it again neither the pound Sterling nor the bank of England belongs to the Kingdom of England and Westminster is not the legal parliament of the kingdom or the country of England. It is the parliament of the united Kingdom and as such if end when the United Kingdom ends so does the United Kingdom Parliament.
Furthermore, historically, there is no parliament of England. If you read Hansard for 30 April 1707 it reports that the parliament of England sat and put itself into permeant recession and has never been convened since. Westminster is not the legally elected parliament of England and the parliament of the United Kingdom ends when the union ends. There cannot be an rUnited Kingdom.
So here is the truth if there is to be bother over a Scottish pound the economy that will suffer is that of England and there can be no continued United Kingdom Parliament.
Finally, if there is trouble with the two kingdom’s pound sterling it will be due to the two being tied but to tie the currencies is the choice of either kingdom and if England doesn’t like it, and they won’t, let them untie it from the stronger Scottish pound.
if you do not believe all that consider the Norway currency, and Norway is much like Scotland. Norway has to buy Euros just to stop the Krone from getting too strong. In fact it is a bit of a bother for them to have to keep buying Euros they don’t actually need – other than to stop the Krone getting too strong.
All Scotland needs to do when it has the Scots Pound Sterling is not tie it to the English pound and let it soar away above the English pound then start buying euros, dollars or whatever to stop the scots pound getting too strong. England will then be in economic trouble.
Why oh Why are some Scots so stupid as to cost Scotland loads of money to be different from England? All a Scots government needs to do is NOT tie their currency to the English currency.
You do know, don’t you, that the English pound Sterling is an international trading currency and they cannot stop anyone using it as international trading currencies are commodities that anyone can buy and sell? Have you not been gulled enough times yet by the unionists propaganda over the currency thing?
Derick fae Yell @ 21:38,
(You probably mean RP, but never mind.)
You have no notion whatever that the 15% will be attracted back to indy by EFTA. No matter how much we might like it. You keep stating it as a given without ever offering any proof. They could be completely turned off by Nicola’s enthusiastic support of immigration, for example.
Conversely, we do know (from Stu’s polls, for example) that there are an awful lot of people who previously voted “no” who are inclined to vote yes because they want to remain in the EU. At least some are ripe for conversion. The excellent Phantom Power series exempifies this. We could easily lose all that potential with a lukewarm half-hearted ersatz offer.
It’s not reasonable to use stagnation in the polls as justification for a change in tack, a weakening of intent. There is an ongoing low-level media campaign against, and without a full-on campaign to bring the issues fully to public notice, nothing is likely to change. To argue for a second-rate and unfamiliar alternative of unknown popularity when the real deal (that a growing majority are known to support) is just ready and waiting to be exploited in a campaign is manifest folly. Adding more unknowns and potential confusions and complications is not going to help on the least.
@cynicalHighlander
Yes, sorry, mistype.
Can’t see Teresa’s latest deal getting voted for tomorrow.
And Junker has told her that if she can’t get her deal through parliament tomorrow then that us it. No more meetings.
The UK will be then left to sort out the exit from the EU on 29th march.
Telegraph is headlining it as “Legally binding assurances”
Wonder if the word ‘normally’ is anywhere in the text?
My bet is the EU is fed up with the UK after 33 months of wretched WA negotiations, but don’t trust May & the Incompetents to get the job finished at Westminster. So this statement is designed to make opposing MPs think that the Backstop has been altered. But it hasn’t.
Will it be enough to swing the vote tomorrow night. It just might be.
But one thing’s for sure, the EU does not want any UK MEP’s back in the EU Parliament after the EU elections in May.
From @Peston’s twitter:
There will be “no third chance,” says @JunckerEU. MPs must back reworked deal tomorrow or “there may be no Brexit”
That sounds like a challenge to me!
Last word for today.
Can anyone see a recovery for UK political institutions after all that has happened?
@manandboy
NO!
Lenny Hartley @ 21:58,
Your question about trade is an eminently reasonable one. The SG was trying to keep the UK in the SM/CU to avoid that very issue.
I think the answer to it is twofold.
Firstly, whatever we may think best now, the first government of an independent Scotland will be duty-bound to explore all reasonable possibilities, and in the light of the prevailing circumstances, may well need to put its preferred proposal to the country in a vote.
Secondly, your assumption about a united Ireland in the near future is unjustified, I think. Present circumstances may hasten that glad day, but there are “many rivers to cross” still. The UK may yet reach a trade deal with the EU that is flexible enough for it to work with iScotland as much as it will certainly have to cater for the Irish situation. (Then we are back to my first point.)
As to your question about the “15%”, we are somewhat in the dark. I’m sure there are many Yes-Leavers who will still vote for indy any day, recognising that iScotland is very likely in any case to freely vote to be in the EU. Possibly among them will be at least some purist isolationists. The 15% may include some who don’t realise the significance of no-deal, but I fear many are anti-immigration and lost to us.
I think we need to look for rich pickings elsewhere. And I believe it is eminently viable.
The Press Conference and Lidington’s statement in HoC looked like a carefully choreographed drama. But listening to the deeply sceptical ERG MPs, it doesn’t sound as if they’re buying it. Keir Starmer too is dismissing it as smoke and mirrors.
Lidington says that arbitration won’t be via the EU Court because it is an international agreement. I wonder if that is true.
@Thepnr who said “Certainly not if there is any kind of lengthy extension to Article 50. ”
I got the impreession from M Junker’s speech at the press conference that this was the end of the road.
He did not seem to contemplate any extensions “Take it or leave it” he said
“This is the UK’s second chance.There will be no 3rd chance”
PS the press conference was on the Guardian website
Whats happening with Gibraltar?
Robert J. Sutherland
Agreed with almost everything there. People like binary choices, it’s how our brains function best when low levels of though are given to the selection between alternatives. Unfortunately, this applies to most voting practice. Our media also undermines rational thought processes, and is a master in peddling fear.
If I was a Conservative, or even a [c]onservative, I’d probably view the natural course of action as choosing to remain in the EU. But then there’s British nationalism and the media environment simply hoaching with British nationalist entitlement.
Folk don’t like being told who to be or what to do though, that psychological resistance to totalitarian authoritarianism is hard-wired in to our brains. That makes a huge difference to our capacity and propensity to be intuitive political beings.
#Hope over fear.
Sorry, as much as I would like it to be, it’s just not going to happen right now, I think some if not most on here need to calm the jets on independence on the back of the withdrawal agreement and the clusterfuck.
This is only the agreement to exit the EU, nothing else.
Folk have had enough and will be breathing a sigh of relief, not the right time.
Our time shall come through the negotiation of the future relationship, the 18 months.
That’s when Europe & all can open it’s arms to Scotland, Britains/Englands position in and relationships with the rest of world are redefined, and Scotland’s vision, relationships and resources (its people) come into their own.
Indy will happen, but not on the back of this current brexit scenario, too much drama, all need to reflect for a wee while, a period of calm for all sides, then build again.
We will not get the external (and perhaps scottish) support required just now, everyone looking for stability and re-eavaluation of democracy, in light of brexit and trump (and most likely 2014 too).
Folk will have had enough and need a period of normality, until they see that changing.
Robert J. Sutherland@11:11pm
UK threatens to make a new unilateral agreement…with itself, but isn’t sure if it will be agreed…with itself.
A meme of Blazing Saddles when the new sheriff takes himself hostage, using himself as a human shield.
ElGordo
What will our constitutional and human rights be in Brexitania? Do you expect Scotland’s democracy to be unopposed and unmolested in the new state of Brexitania?
Much the same as it is now during the transitional period
@ben madigan
Yes I read all that, I took it to mean that there will be no further negotiations between now and the 29th March, the deal on the table is it. What I took it to mean is that if May’s deal fails to get through this week then don’t bother coming back trying to get further changes as it’s not going to happen.
Nothing though to do with whether the EU would agree to an extension to Article 50 if requested before 29th March.
FWIW failure to pass May’s deal in the next meaningful vote can have only two outcomes at this stage. An extension agreed with the EU or revocation of Article 50 all together. No deal will not be supported by parliament and they still have some time to play with.
I’d say an extension is certain and the only question then is, how long that extension will be for.
El gordo.
Wait? For what?
ElGordo @ 23:42,
The danger of that approach is post-Brexit normalisation. I believe the FM is fully aware of that.
Plus we currently have a triple mandate. To throw it all away for nothing except the vague hope of better times to come would be sheer political folly. Support for indy and the SNP would plummet from the loss of hope. 2017 would be a picnic compared to that.
ElGordo
So do you disagree with the Supreme Court’s assessment that the Brexit vote was unsound?
Wait until we can get on stage/camera and create/direct our own political theater, rather than be sidelined and watch the scripted one that’s been performed for the past 2 years, with occasional walk on bit part roles.
Yeah, i was getting to normalised, to the point of stocking up, passports etc.
As I imagine a lot of others have been as well, in different situations to mine.
So this will be treated, overall (tho not on here) with a big sigh of relief, it this goes through, which its kinda sounding like.
Which i know is incorrect, but it will be. Not salvation, just a thank fuck for that.
So on the back of that, what next, “division and turmoil again”?
Folk need a bit of space and then build on the argument.
Create our own theater this time, rather than be subjected to it, for that is all that it had been.
ElGordo
Sorry but that doesn’t answer my question. Are you really so relaxed about having Scotland’s legal environment transformed and your legal identity amended, on the back of a vote that was geographically concentrated in England and compromised by illegal practice? Your on strong meds than mine, I take it.
Well that was a real cracker earlier tonight. John MacKay was hosting the Scotland Tonight programme and was questioning two experts (didn’t pick up on their names), at great length, about the current Brexit fiasco. You know “Westminster, Westminster blah, blah, blah.” Eventually one of them (Paris something?) said words to this effect, “I’ve noticed that no one in the media is mentioning the SNP amendment, a crucial amendment relating to Independence, which will be submitted tomorrow.” Well John MacKay’s face was a picture. What a bl**dy embarrassment don’t you think? He then went on to discuss the World’s End murders and ended with footage of rubble just missing a guy in London and that was it. Speaks volumes don’t you think? Scotland, eh, Tonight? If anyone could manage to post it on here (sorry I’m on my IPad) it would be worth taking a look at.
……………….
I was just having a look through the Sun newspaper and see that John McDonnell stated the following at the Scottish Labour Party Conference at the weekend.
He said that, “they plan to cover Scotland with more than 1000 extra wind turbines (around 1500) when they get into power. He added, “You know that already 60% of the UK’s onshore wind capacity is in Scotland. Labour has developed ambitious plans for expanding onshore wind.”….
He claimed that “there has been inadequate investment to secure Scotland’s rightful place as a renewable energy superpower.”…..
He used his speech, which ended the Conference, to launch a scathing attack on the SNP’s record at Holyrood by saying that, “the Nats had failed to ease the effects of Tory austerity. The SNP have the powers to shield Scotland but have not done so. They have betrayed the people of Scotland.”
Where would you start in ripping their arguments apart? Anyone else on here feel their blood boiling between one thing and another? See how they are well aware that they can’t do without Scotland the cash cow either.
…………………..
Robert Peston:-
link to mobile.twitter.com
…………………..
Thanks for keeping us up to date tonight Nana. And thanks too for the Pete Wishart tweet which was a right laugh.
ElGordo
P.S. A legal identity that is protected by law.
No, i’m not Cam.
At least i don’t think so.
It could be possible, i may be wavering.
Kinda havering.
Just incase, if it’s not too much to ask of you.
Could you possibly provide me with some reference material.
Specific to my condition,
Just to make sure?
@Thepnr – I had the impression that “No 3rd chances” also referred to “No extension”.
I thought the EU (Mr Junker) was pretty adamant on that point.
If it were me in that situation, I certainly wouldn’t think the EU was extending any goodwill towards looking favourably upon an extension of time to facilitate the UK. To do what?
With regards to your comment “failure to pass May’s deal in the next meaningful vote can have only two outcomes at this stage. An extension agreed with the EU or revocation of Article 50 all together. No deal will not be supported by parliament and they still have some time to play with”
I don’t entirely agree – In my view the options are: if Westmister fails to pass May’s deal, they can revoke or pass to NO deal
OK we agree they can revoke (very unlikely) but . .
it’s not within Westminster’s ability to block No Deal.
That will happen, whether Westminster wants it or not, unless the WA is ratified.
“All treaties will expire” – the EU has been saying that since Art 50 was invoked. And that will be that.End of Uk membership. Welcome 3rd country status
I’m feeling upset this evening.
I’m worried about Scotland, don’t know where she’s going. Let’s hope she saves her skin
A couple of snippets from Robert Peston earlier. Around 25 lawyers are working on, scrutinising, the latest ….. what will I call it …. deal.
Although Junker seems to be clamping right down on Big T now, next Thursday is the absolute deadline for dealing with this Brexit bourach as it’s the last meeting of the EU 27 before 29th March. Next Thursday, lol. Gives us a whole 8 days to resolve this. Next up the extension.
ElGordo
Your warmth doesn’t distract from your evasion. How can you be confident of a democratic future for Scotland, when Westminster appears to have abandoned consideration of and respect for British and EU constitutional law?
I cannot, i would like to say the people of Scotland, then 2014.
All i can say is now is definitely not the time if this goes through, re-engage in September and keep on having the conversations in the meantime.
It’s the family connections and reasonable conversations that will win it, as more and more people disengage with media.
@ben madigan
I can see why you might have thought that but what he said implied the complete opposite.
Our agreement provides meaningful clarifications & legal guarantees to the Withdrawal Agreement & #backstop. The choice is clear: it is this deal, or #Brexit may not happen at all. Let’s bring the UK’s withdrawal to an orderly end. We owe it to history.
link to twitter.com
That tells me clearly that this message was for the DUP and the ERG, back this deal now or “Brexit may not happen at all”. So an extension extremely likely and then into the unknown. If no extension can be agreed with the EU then revocation of Article 50 is still open to Westminster.
I’d be betting that if it was that or no deal then parliament would chose revocation followed by a second EU referendum as being the only logical solution.
ElGordo
I’m not suggesting now but soon. Very, very soon, or it’s prohibition might become constitutionally ‘legal and binding’ before we strike. Westminster are working to that end, though it is clearly not the right time for them to be doing so.
Joanna Cherry:- “She has the option to revoke Article 50 (thanks to the Scots).
link to mobile.twitter.com
Will be weak for years to come.
EU negotiations will weaken.
Breakaways are weakening.
Leadership challenges are weakening.
Contracting economy will weaken.
Unemployment will weaken.
Future trade deals, when floated, announced, will divide. NHS, farming, manufacturing.
Westminster needs to be lying, flat out on the road, before we ask it to take a big bite out of the kerb.
Then we jump
ElGordo @ 00:09,
So “Create our own theater”, just not now.
Let’s take the initiative, err… by allowing someone else to make the running and let all sorts of things be perpetrated upon us for a while yet. Then we’ll do something. For sure.
I believe this is sometimes called “the battered partner excuse”.
Forgive me for being supremely underwhelmed.
(Oh, and what’s with the American spelling already?)
Spellcheck i post, apologies, theatre.
Just a breather, regular folk need a bit of a break from fairly heavy constitutional politics.
Nothing can/will happen before the summer recess.
Situation will improve in our favour (with a U) beyond, as negotiations, further general realisation (with an S) and internal turmoil kick in.
Folk might start looking for and listening to leaders.
Just now they are bombarded.
Underwhelmed is a little too nuanced for this thick Scot. How’s about vapid, tenuous or anemic?
….as adjectives to describe ElGordo’s argument.
ElGordo
Sorry dude but that’s how I see it.
That’s exactly the kind of conversations with friends and family i’m talking about Cam…
How much longer can May hold on for? Looks as though she’s toast.
Robert Peston:- “All she’s done is “reduced the risk.”
link to mobile.twitter.com
Patrick Grady has tweeted the SNP amendment to be voted on tomorrow:
link to twitter.com
Patrick Grady is playing to the gallery, chip on the shoulder, grievance nats, satisfy the base. No intention of doing fuck all.
Why doesn’t Nic submit the request for S30.
Pure theatre all round, and SNP now complicit in that.
Don’t remember that approach last time around…
ElGordo
The great English Brexit that has ignored Scotland and excluded its representatives past the point of tolerance keeps forgetting the very thing that’ll make them pay dearly and that’s the actual people of Northern Ireland who throughout this process they’ve totally disregarded given that the DUP do not represent Northern Irelands vote to remain
The *British* media have refused to report anything from and by the parties in Northern Ireland who will not budge one centimetre from remaining in the EU and they mean it and the news from NI is Mary Lou McDonald has stated quite clearly England can Brexit if it likes but NI isn’t going with them
Englands Brexiters may hope for nothing much happening from Scotland because well Scotland just yaps a lot but does nothing because they can never agree with themselves on anything to unite behind anyway, but the Irish are a different kettle of fish altogether, I mean have the English Brexiters forgotten that or don’t they care
Sorry that acknowledgement was in relation to the encouragement of family discussions.
ElGordo
Are you not being a bit inconsistent there re. the First Minister submitting a request for S30? I thought you thought now is not the time?
I was just getting off to bed when I noticed that you had posted that Capella. Well here we go, selected by Bercow or not, voted down or not it’s music to my ears.
Was making a point, not my opinion.
@ ElGordo at 1:28am …. “grievance nats.”
That’s a strange term for an Independence supporter to use ElGordo!
Yep, but it’s used often in the media, and in the reporting that’s exactly how it will be portrayed
Grievance Nats is not something I’ve heard even in the Scottish media for quite some time because they know it’s inflammatory so it’s only a very few filth *journalists* who use it to Troll people with
Well this ‘grievance nat’ is doing all he can to science us out of our dilemma, though to a comparatively tiny audience. Pols do appear to support the claim that time and events conspire against the ideological, so the dilemma is becoming less of an obstruction to rational self-determination.
The ideology of British nationalism has run its course. Unfortunately we do live in interesting times and the British constitution has been proven incapable of protecting the human rights of Scotland’s residents.
I’m not suggesting tomorrow but we need to move soon, IMHO.
Glad I rammed the point right home
@ElGordo
Are you living in Scotland or maybe an expat living in Spain who is more concerned with your own situation and the need to do a deal rather than Independence itself?
There are some people like that, just asking like El Gordo.
Johnathan not Cam
No, a selfless realist.
Just responding
@ElGordo
Be honest are you living in Scotland right now?
A selfless realist? Well here’s a bit of Political Realism from the Yale university workshop on International Relations. Sorry for the length of this post.
mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/kissingcousins.pdf
@Thepnr
No i’m based out of Hermitage in Berks and they made it my turn tonight, coz i let in two goals at the fives
Twice!
@ElGordo
I appreciate your honesty since you posted this a couple of months ago and it was clear that at least then you weren’t living in Scotland.
“Think i’m just about past the whole indy thing now, don’t deserve it. Will give it until “once brexit is known”. Beyond that fuck it. Given up after seeing that shite and occasional drop ins to the “daily record” and scottish press, is this really Scotland? Its not the people of Scotland.
Doesn’t impact me as I am away (yeah wanker, but just making the best of), was always my dream , more than that, not just a dream, me, defined me, my identity, from a young age, the history, my family, (the football team), the injustice, the 1980’s, the unemployment, the miners, getting shown videos at school how to be a good unemployed and stay out of sight, start a bedroom/garage band, go for walks in the hills. That’s why I am away, and all my mates are too, spread throughout the world. No jobs, no future at that time.”
link to wingsoverscotland.com
It does kind of influence your take on events whether you live here or not so I’m glad to see you being up front about that. Done a bit of travelling myself in my time but I’m always glad to be back home.
Home for me is Scotland and all things being equal it will become an even better home for all that live here once we vote for Independence. Unfortunately if you no longer live here then you won’t influence that decision.
Fingers crossed for a Yes vote next time and I hope that would be enough to persuade you and your mates that have left to return and make Scotland your home again.
@ElGordo
“No i’m based out of Hermitage in Berks and they made it my turn tonight, coz i let in two goals at the fives
Just noticed your interesting wee joke there, yes very droll.
link to en.wikipedia.org
Good luck with those lottery numbers.
Thepnr
I wasn’t sure myself where he’s on the wind-up or taking the piss. Whatever. He’s not going to sway public opinion if his imagination is confined to blt comment. Night, night.
Lenny Hartley
11 March, 2019 at 9:58 pm
Yes, if Scotland is in EFTA-EEA that means being out of the Customs Union. Which then means we can adjust the Scotland-England border to minimise friction. Or offer that to England anyway. Whether they accept is another matter! There is an obvious precedent in the Norway-Sweden border.
Schengen or not is a choice. But remember the British isles Common Travel Area survived an actual shooting war in Ireland.
Robert Sutherland. Neither you nor I know whether EU-EEA or EFTA-EEA would attract more support. We do know that even with a hard Brexit Independence support is just scraping over 50%.
Stuart asked us what we make of that polling result. My answer is that we need to widen the tent, to get over the line
Awe right!
link to independent.co.uk
Starting with a few tweets this morning
Here it is – @theSNP amendment to #MeaningfulVote calling for Scotland to become an independent Member State of the European Union, meaning (if selected by the Speaker) for the first time ever, a majority of MPs from Scotland will vote in favour of #independence for our country
link to twitter.com
Stephen Gethins on newsnight
video
link to twitter.com
Let this be put in plain terms.
link to threadreaderapp.com
link to gov.scot
link to thoughtcontrolscotland.com
link to scottishcities.org.uk
link to stirlingsnp.com
link to holyrood.com.
link to businessforscotland.com
link to fishingnews.co.uk
link to scottishhousingnews.com
Podcast
link to lesleyriddoch.com
link to theorkneynews.scot
link to welfareweekly.com
The black stuff which is forever running out for Scotland, will last for at least 20yrs for the UK
link to archive.is
This could all have changed by the afternoon
link to ukandeu.ac.uk
link to politico.eu
link to politics.co.uk
James O’Brien asks why Brexiters still believe the people proved to be wrong as he reels off a list of things they mislead voters over.
link to twitter.com
Brexit’s already having a massive impact on the UK, even ahead of our official departure from the EU. Here are 250+ fully-sourced examples of Brexit’s effects. Jobs going, investment drying up, companies moving assets to the EU, or redomiciling. Project *fact* not project fear.
link to twitter.com
link to prospectmagazine.co.uk
link to newsnowfinland.fi
link to politicshome.com
link to independent.co.uk
Brexit fallout on UK finance intensifies – think tank
link to archive.is
This sounds plausible (and from an ultra-reliable source). But even supposing it squeaks through at maybe MV3 it sets up years of domestic dispute, international wrangling, and slow burn economic damage especially to services. Certainly nothing like what Leave promised in 2016.
link to twitter.com
Brexit impact on the City worse than anyone thought. Almost £1 trillion of assets already transferred and far more to shift in years ahead according to authoritative new report
link to newfinancial.org
link to taxresearch.org.uk
link to bylinetimes.com
Officials accused of ‘cover up’ over cost of Boris Johnson’s Afghanistan trip
link to archive.is
link to irishtimes.com
link to businessinsider.com
link to buzzfeed.com
link to portsmouth.co.uk
link to rte.ie
link to edition.cnn.com
Brexit weekly briefing: May’s Strasbourg dash brings no clarity
link to archive.is
link to irishtimes.com
What James says
link to twitter.com
Four links in moderation, just noticed a banned word. Not going to attempt posting again, too feart of hammers
Professor (I got a knighthood for working for the British) Poultice has popped up in the nick of Unionist time to tell us the Daily Mail has a new poll which says SNP voters don’t want a referendum till 2021
Some things wrong with this poll before we even know what the question was, I’m a SNP voter, nobody asked me anything, nobody ever asks me anything and did the Daily Mail access SNP membership, I don’t think so
It’s as if they’ve started their campaign already, couldn’t be could it
Thx Nana – it’s going to be a long day.
Curious difference between the Scotland edition of The Times and the English version. Written by the same people. In Scotland we’re told that the EU resists May’s deal. In England May triumphs.
From the BBC website paper front pages.
So if the Scottish version is written before the English version, how come the BBC always waits a few hours before uploading.
Steve Bullock says
Nothing to see here. Just perfectly normal stuff for a modern liberal democracy in peacetime. Move along now. Keep going. Nothing to see. Back to work now. Nothing to see. You! GET IN THE BACK OF THE VAN! Everything is normal. Do not speak about the event.
link to twitter.com
A quick trawl round the interwebby, the ERG are revolting, the DUP are waiting to see how big the bribe will be, some knives are being sharpened and everyone else says the latest fudge is tasteless.
@manandboy says:11 March, 2019 at 11:26 pm:
” … But one thing’s for sure, the EU does not want any UK MEP’s back in the EU Parliament after the EU elections in May.”
Oh! I’m not sure about that bit, manandboy, they seem to like Alyn Smyth just fine:-
link to youtube.com
Last time I looked he was still a UK MSP.
Michel Barnier said the EU have done evrything in our power to assist Scotland in its exit from the UK
Well not quite in those words, what he actually said was, we can’t interfere hee hee hee
@manandboy says: 11 March, 2019 at 11:29 pm:
” … Last word for today.
Can anyone see a recovery for UK political institutions after all that has happened?”
A little careless with your terminology there, manandboy, there is a great deal of difference between the terms UK political institutions and Westminster institutions. ATM Scottish, Welsh and N.I. political institutions are all UK institutions.
A recent opinion poll for Wings Over Scotland asked the question “Do you think Professor Poultice should be given more or less time on TV?”. An overall 73% said “Far less” split uniformly over the parties apart from the Tories who voted 90% for “More please can we have some gruel Westminster”.
Professor Poultice commented “It’s great that a vast majority of the Scottish plebs think I’m wonderful and that my [censored] is champagne, and want to see more of me and I have approached Edinburgh University to clone me so I can be on all channels at once. There shall be no escape”.
Later that day 666 people looking remarkably like him were seen engaged in a brawl along Propaganda Quay shouting “I’m the real Poultice”. Both STV and BBC Scotland refused to comment which is very unusual as they have a wrong answer for everything.
Morning Capella, aye it is going to be yet another long day of Westminster bull. I don’t think I have the stomach for it.
Thank goodness for the SNP, imagine for a moment not having them there.
Peter Grant MP said
video
link to twitter.com
In addition to Cameron ‘s reply to ElGordo, 12 March, 2019 at 12:37 am:
Can you be confident of a democratic future for Scotland, when Westminster appears to have abandoned consideration of and respect for British and EU constitutional law?
Westminster has abandoned its respect for international law too, given its refusal to recognise the judgment over the ‘re-annexation’, and total de-population of the Chagos Islands to create the Diego Garcia military base.
Nana, your links are a godsend! Thank you so much for keeping us all informed.
@Nana
Heh! New deal, same as old deal. Who knew?
It’s about to hit the fan.
Morning Macart, best stand well back
Joanna Cherry says
The overwhelming weight of legal opinion overnight = these “new” provisions don’t alter the fundamental legal effect of the #backstop set out by Attorney General. He has no basis to substantially alter his previous opinion. Careful questioning vital
link to twitter.com
Molly Scott Cato says
I’ve never before seen a prime minister deliberately try to mislead her own Parliament. There have been no legally binding changes to the withdrawal agreement.
link to twitter.com
That’s all for today
oops, there will be trouble ahead
link to twitter.com
If Scotland or Wales FMs need to know anything they can contact Arlene Foster apparently because she’s in charge of eh erm now what is it again,eh well nothing really
Brexit is the equivalent of opening a corner shop next door to the supermarket, and expecting to make a fortune.
@Nana
Yep. I’d heard that too.
If the AG continues along that line publicly? It’s going to leave, not just the government benches, but ‘almost’ the entire house in a bit of a pickle.
English is a language in which reasoning proceeds from the particular to the general. The French, Itslians and our own Gaelic speakers do the reverse, general to particular.
English is a perfect language for discussing the arrangement of deckchairs on a sinking ship and not the fact that the ship itself is doomed. And it would seem there is a strong element of mutual incomprehensibility among its speakers. A bad language for concluding water-tight ‘deals’.
In other news, EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier is to be replaced by Professor Abraham Van Helsing, MEP for Transylvania.
Thanks, Robert, I am happy to be corrected on both points. You are quite right. You have taught me a valuable lesson, for which I am grateful, so thank you.
Popcorn at the ready.
Thanks for the links Nana.
I see that Unite wants to reopen talks to bring Scottish council workers pay rise in line with the teachers pay rise of 10% (13%). It looks as though Unison and the GMB plan to do so too. They won’t be happy until they see Scotland brought to her knees at the behest of their Labour Party bosses in London, IMO. It’s worth noting that these English controlled Unions in Scotland aren’t pursuing any pay rise over 3% in England (as far as I can ascertain so far). If that IS the case I’d suggest that Union members complain to their respective Unions and if no change of approach is forthcoming consider cancelling their membership altogether.
link to holyrood.com
………………..
No mention of the Scottish amendment on BBC news, as was the case on STV’s Scotland Tonight (last night) … outlined at 12:15am.
The EU has indulged T.May and given her a bit of the icing, but underneath the cake is still untouched.
” to tell us the Daily Mail has a new poll which says SNP voters don’t want a referendum till 2021″.
They obvious question in reply is, Why’s that?
O/T
My schooling ended in 1958. At That time and ever since we have been told that Scottish Highers are inferior to English A levels.
Over the years this seems to have been meekly accepted as fact.
I would like to know if any evidence has ever been produced to back up this suggestion of our qualifications being inferior.
Given the historic excellent reputation of Scotland’s education system I would have thought that if evidence existed of said inferiority our Scottish Education Authorities would have taken action to upgrade our curriculums to at least parity with those in England.
Is it possible that this alleged inferiority is just a load of bollocks and is just another weapon that has been used over many years by our Colonial masters to encourage The Scottish Cringe.
Perhaps the Better Together2 campaign will be led by Arlene Foster next time, after all she has more say at Westminster over Scotland’s future than any of the current Labour administration.
That’s really our choice at present, a country and under the leadership of Nicola Sturgeon or Arlene Foster, with her sidekick Theresa May.
Derick fae Yell It is my understanding hat Schengen is required for freedom of movement if member of EFTA. Or have I read it wrong?
Treeza will be hoping that nobody noticed that nothing actually changed.
Her new agreement is the exact same as her last agreement, but keep that under yer bunnet, because she doesn’t want those stupid MPs finding that out.
The chaos continues…
Hi starlaw at 8:46 am.
You typed,
“Brexit is the equivalent of opening a corner shop next door to the supermarket, and expecting to make a fortune.”
If you open the corner shop, you name it “Main Entrance”.
Fintan O’Toole says it all in a single tweet.
link to twitter.com
Gus @9-47am
Highers and A levels were not directly comparable ( but, as usual, they could be construed in that fashion).
I did the usual 3 A levels in sixth year in England (Maths, Phys, Chem in my case) and applied and got accepted to a Scottish Uni.
I found that the Scots students normally seemed to have five or six ‘Highers’, in other words a much greater ‘spread’ of knowledge. Which I realised later was a much better ‘foundation’ than my narrow A level curriculum.
It did mean that in the first months of Uni study I was ‘ahead’ in certain disciplines – but that was purely temporary, and by the end of first year Scots students were more than equal at all levels.
My own children went through the Scottish Higher system and I considered it a far better ‘education’ than my own ‘narrow’ A level experience.
gus1940 says:
I’m no educationalist but it sound like Scotlandbaaad bollocks which relies on comparing oranges to apples.
Typically Highers are sat a year earlier and a greater number of subjects covered.
Many years ago I did Six Year Studies which I was told were an equivalent to English A levels. Similarly my daughter did a a couple of Advanced Highers.
But the comparison isn’t even that simple. I did six years in secondary and still went to Uni at 17. That is relatively common. Then, it takes typically four years in a Scottish Uni to get a degree compared to three in England.
At every stage in Scottish education the subjects covered are wider. This is true right up to and into University degree courses. That sounds like a better approach yo me.
Here’s a link to the dark side’s view of May’s meanderings.
link to archive.is
Check out those btls!
Gives me an excuse to link again to one of my songs of the year 2018.
Shamelesss, I know, but it is that good and relevant!
“Truth aint a rabbit.
A trick that you pull from a hat”
link to soundcloud.com
The BBC and the MSM. Campaigning and briefing for the Tories like their jobs depend on it. Like it does. Disgraceful trying to destroy the UK/world economy. Westminster incompetents trying to keep their criminality secret under the Official Secrets Act. They are not fit for government. The Westminster dinosaurs are destroying the world. It will destroy the Tory Party if there is any justice. One Law for them. One rule for others. The unionist etc, I not fit for governance or making the Law. Most of them should be retired. Pass their sell by date and totally out of touch.
The only benefit if May gets her ‘deal’ lies through it will put up support for Independence in Scotland. Either way. Either the complete shambles or an unsuccessful not supported outcome.
One step at a time. The tide will turn. Voters will turn out to support it. Everything to hope for, confidence in the future. Just wait until the campaigning starts. An easy majority over the line. Independence time. Something to celebrate, finally. A self determining , successful, more equal prosperous, happy democracy. Reaching it’s potential. What a future. Everything to achieve.
Derick fae Yell @ 06:16,
To broaden the appeal is right, but trying to do it with 15% instead of 62% is plumb perverse.
Not least since the 15% are largely the hardline rump of the yes-leavers. (Maybe Nicola shouldn’t have been so supportive of immigrants. But I jest.)
As for stagnation in the polls, that is hardly a mystery. As long as all we have is “wait and see”, that’s how they’ll stay. We need a full-on campaign to get people engaged and get fairer access to the airwaves to reach the uninformed.
Then and only then we’ll fly. Because we’ve the facts and the opposition only have scares.
J Cherry says
Thank you for early sight of this @bricksilk. I respectfully agree with everything you say. The Attorney General @Geoffrey_Cox is in very tricky territory now…
link to twitter.com
Joanna replying to this legal opinion on last night’s developments
link to twitter.com
Interesting suggestion being offered on Joanna Cherry’s twitter feed- use nnan’s link able and then scroll down through some of the comments.
More
Replying to @joannaccherry @bricksilk @Geoffrey_Cox
Sorry to bang on but in order to avoid a hard border between England & Scotland (following your desired UK split: Eng out & Scot in EU) would you guys just draw up cross-Parliamentary Bill to Revoke Article 50, end Brexit, have a GE & then have your IndyRef but WITHIN the EU? Ta
Re Highers and A-levels:- An A-level takes 2 years of study (in Lower Sixth, roughly = S5, and Upper Sixth). My memory is that AS-levels (to be sat in Lower Sixth) were introduced about 20 years ago to give a qualification equivalent to Scottish Highers.
This was done to bring the England 16+ stay-on-at-school rate UP – at the time Scotland had a much better 16+ stay-on rate. It was thought that the opportunity to get a qualification after 1 year, rather than 2, and in 4/5 subjects, rather than just 3, would encourage pupils to stay in school. And it did.
My memory is also that, for entry to higher education, UCAS rated an AS-level as EQUAL to a Higher, as both scored 60 (maximum) points. (Converting an AS into an A-level gave another 60 points, so 120 (maximum) points for 2 years of study.)
I believe AS-levels have been abolished, which I think is a choice-limiting retrograde step for pupils in England.
Well all Mr Cox has to offer is *Flash is alive* in his big booming voice, but nothing else so we’re done here
Next!
Like most thing, the sociology of our education systems is complicated, don’t let folk try to con you they are directly comparable. Education is the cradle of culture, so it can’t be said that Scotland and England share the same culture. Neo-liberalism comes naturally to the English, as it was born from their culture.
@Church of Scotland
Do you think it moral for one culture to dominate another?
link to tandfonline.com
The differences between teaching in England and Scotland
link to tes.com
A ANALYSIS OF A ‘SCOTTISH DIMENSION’ IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCHOOL BASED MANAGEMENT
link to scotedreview.org.uk
May “ croaking” away in the HOC , looking now for a “ sympathy vote”?i await Hammond to slip her a lozenge.
More Educational Sociology.
link to researchgate.net
Poverty, educational attainment and achievement in Scotland: a critical review of the literature
dera.ioe.ac.uk/15894/1/Poverty_educational_attainment_and_achievement.pdf
Policy and policy learning across the four countries of the UK: The case of further education and skills
An initial scoping paper
May 2017
link to ucl.ac.uk
I feel a general election coming on……………gird your loins, fellow Wingers.
@Bill Hume
I would have thought so but do Labour or this new TIG lot want one? I’m not so sure but the Tories could call one anyway in the expectation they will win.
Bbc refused to let viewers hear Ian Blackfords response to vote cut back commentator
Cameron Brodie
Interesting group of references. Had a quick look at a couple but Brexit brouhaha getting in the way.
Some quick observations.
A levels are often described as ‘the gold standard’ particularly by politicians but I wonder how many people realise that, unlike the Highers, there are several exam boards providing exam papers and schools pick and mix which boards’ papers they use. Therefore you have a mosaic system rather than the homogenous system that is the highers system.
The TES reference mention this but not much more.
Students with A levels who come to study at Scottish Universities certainly have a deeper knowledge over a narrower range of subjects and this often leads them to ‘coast’ during the early stages of 1st year but it does not take them long – end of 1st term or so – to realise they have to get into gear because things are picking up and they are in danger of falling behind.
At least that was my experience when teaching at Glasgow Uni.
Anyway thank you for the references they look like they will be an interesting read.
@manandboy says: 12 March, 2019 at 9:06 am:
” … Thanks, Robert, I am happy to be corrected on both points. You are quite right. You have taught me a valuable lesson, for which I am grateful, so thank you.”
Och! dinna worry aboot it. It’s the brainwashing that causes it. Thing is I started undoing the brainwashing around 70 years ago and it sure takes a lot of conscious effort to get the brain washed clean again.
I’ll quote you an example I just cut & pasted from the Rev Stu’s twitter column over on the right:-
” … Dominic Grieve in the Commons a few minutes ago:
“And we are failing also to assess the realities of devolution and the fact that, with four nations making up the United Kingdom, there are now four identities which we have essentially disrespected.”
Now there he is, an MP in the House of Commons, and he doesn’t understand that the United Kingdom is without doubt a two partner union of kingdoms.
He obviously thinks it is a union of four countries. He is an MP – it is his job to know these things – but he doesn’t and he isn’t alone in the commons. Now here is another point – no other MP corrected him.
Hi Thepnr at 7:19 pm
You typed,
“I would have thought so but do Labour or this new TIG lot want one? I’m not so sure but the Tories could call one anyway in the expectation they will win.”
My own thoughts…
If there is a GE, the SNP should use the “Maggie Mantra” as their manifesto, ie, if a majority of pro-independence MPs are sent to Westminster, then we Scots have the right to withdraw from The Treaty of Union and regain our status as an independent country.
I think that Labour would be down to one or no Scottish MPs, the Tories would also be decimated. The Lib-Dems – who knows?
Milton! Thou should’st be living at this hour.
England hath need of thee.
I am so sorry. Did you watch that BBC coverage of the vote. I didn’t believe in BBC bias even during THE referendum to my shame I admit now. A long winded insufferable talk to Jacob Rearend moggy then some (I’ll take the hit labour MP) followed by 3 flipping seconds of an SNP argument then ” let’s go to Luton” cause that’s flipping important. I have had enough of blatant anti Scottish racism just tired of it.