My resignation from the Labour Party
This article originally appeared on Allan’s blog. Reproduced with permission.
Dear Richard Leonard,
You can accept this letter as my formal resignation from membership of the Labour Party. And you may not like to hear that you are the straw that broke the camel’s back.
Having been a Labour supporter for over 20 years, and member for over a decade, I have seen the party, particularly in Scotland, lose its identity, purpose, and relevance as it has moved toward becoming a party of soundbite policies and pure opposition, devoid of any substance or reasoned opinion.
In the wake of the Brexit vote two years ago, I simultaneously sent formal communication to both Kezia Dugdale and Nicola Sturgeon.
To Kezia I was imploring her not to play politics and not to immediately discount a future Scottish independence referendum without first taking stock and commissioning an evidence based economic report on the whole set of circumstances and likely costs and benefits to all potential outcomes. In other words, not to jump to a non evidence based position that could not be reasonably substantiated.
At the same time, in my email to Nicola Sturgeon I emphasised that I was not an SNP supporter, rather I was a Labour Party member, but that I was (I am) an expert on EU law and other aspects of international law, and that if required for any analysis in the aftermath of the Brexit result I would be willing to put party politics aside for the good of the country’s future.
The result of both of those emails? I received a timely and personally written response from Nicola Sturgeon, acknowledging my offer and outlining potential approaches that may have been taken. And from Kezia? No response at all and the actions that I suspected ie a kneejerk response to discounting a second independence referendum with no evidence base whatsoever.
I considered resigning from the party at that point, but convinced myself that things might improve. Sadly however, things have continued to go from bad to worse for the party I once loved, and your recent announcement of seeking to block another independence referendum by inserting it into the next manifesto is a step too far.
Yet again, neither you nor the party (as far as I know) has conducted any real economic or social research that backs up the approach of automatically discounting such a referendum, and the only logical conclusion I can come to is that this is yet another cynical (and yet again horrendously misjudged) exercise in opposition for opposition’s sake.
Let me be clear. I did not vote for independence in 2014, but the circumstances HAVE changed. I’m afraid this is a point that cannot be rebutted, as there is no valid argument to the contrary. One of the main crucial arguments in 2014 was that remaining in the UK was the only way to definitely protect EU membership. And at the time that was absolutely correct. However that is no longer the case.
Instead the only likely way for future EU membership for Scotland would be as an independent country, unless there is an almighty Westminster U-turn and somehow the UK does not depart the EU in 2019 as currently proposed.
As such, and yet again, any hard decision to discount Scottish independence as of now without awaiting the eventual result of the Brexit process is indisputably premature. It is not something I will support (and nor should any reasonable individual who is not entrenched in rhetoric).
Sadly, these issues are so crucial that I cannot be party to, or complicit with their eventual outcome. Through your poorly judged approach to this issue, you have lost a formerly dedicated party member. My direct debit to the party will be cancelled with immediate effect.
Yours Sincerely,
Dr Allan T. Moore
Lecturer in Law and Criminology, UWS
External Examiner in Law, Glasgow Caledonian University
External Examiner in International Law and International Human Rights Law, De Montfort University
No doubt index fingers will be inserted into ears to be followed by a resounding chorus of “la la la not listening”.
Wow, nail well and truly hammered on so many levels…
This is a powerful resignation letter as it highlights the shortcomings of the Labour Party operating in Scotland and contradictions involved in wanting to support that party while simultaneously supporting what is best for Scotland. It also acknowledges the competence of the SNP led government in all matters European, but with equal significance, it differentiates between the SNP and the wider YES movement.
Welcome to YES, Allan.
Wow.
He is someone who knows what our leaving the EU is actually going to entail. And for anyone else, I recommend the 3 blokes videos on youtube. They’ve not discussed Scotland much yet, but if you’re not afraid of March then these videos will absolutely terrify you.
Things like the men who refuel the planes. They will no longer be licensed on the 31st of March. So they won’t be able to refuel planes. The next sentence is, ‘but that won’t matter.’
Totally and utterly terrifying.
I must take issue with your assertion about the EU membership issue last time. It was by no means clear that was the case. Barrosso’s words on the subject cannot be taken as gospel as he was campaigning to be NATO Secretary General and needed UKgov’s support. The current holder of his old post is much more positive about the issue.
It remains the case that there was no mechanism to deny the citizenship of 5million people because they voted for Independence in a sanctioned referendum. There was plenty of time post a Yes vote to arrange our continuing membership and EU pragmatism would have prevailed.
The reaction in the Commission and the Parliament post Brexit to Scotland and our politicians has been very different and would have been the case following a Yes vote. Post Brexit we saw Nicola Sturgeon invited to Dublin on an official visit and she addressed the Seanad. Post a Yes vote in 2014 Eire would have been in there arguing our case and rUK would not have wanted a hard border so would have worked on our behalf wrt membership as well. Much would have been different and politicians can demonstrate remarkable flexibility when circumstances change. Their former words discounted with ‘that’s politics’. Things are only unthinkable until they happen.
Lecturer in Law and Criminology; that kinda qualifies him, doesn’t it? That is a pretty resounding No to Yes, in a long and diverse series of such transformations.
Come-out, come-out, wherever you are, all you other died-in-the-wool sensible unionists.
Ouch! But it had to be said and Dr Moore has said it rather splendidly. Opposition for opposition’s sake is simply not a tenable position for any political party in Scotland given the bleak future that Brexit threatens. There has to be a better way.
[…] Wings Over Scotland My resignation from the Labour Party This article originally appeared on Allan Moore’s blog. Reproduced with permission. […]
Well there you have it a no to yes because of Jezia and Dicky.
We just need the Tories to keep doing one issue politics too as they are. A definite no to a second independence referendum.
It’s coming soon.
The britnats doing our work for us with there deluded minds of a union that’s already dead as Welsh independence murmurs are on the rise it seems and with talk of a reunification of Ireland the UK is no longer the UK even in name then when those two come to pass it’s turning into a game of who abandons England frist Scotland Wales or Northern Ireland.
Now that is what I’d call a damning letter.
and a Welcome on board to you, Doctor!
The Yes movement needs all shapes and sizes and voices.
That is its attraction.
Hoping scotland leaves before wales and before ireland unites
It still troubles me to think that an ‘expert’ has been unable to understand, from the outset, that any London based UK political party can EVER consider Scottish independence as a serious option for their movement.
The UK Labour Party, the Tories and the Lib-Dems simply cannot have anything to do with Scotland post-independence, in the same way that they already have nothing to do with the internal politics of France, Germany, or Mongolia!
Canada (and so many other countries) used to be controlled from the parliament in London. Once Canada was properly independent from Westminster (which was relatively recently in 1982!), none of the MP’s in London had any say whatsoever in Canadian affairs.
If Scotland acheives unitary sovereign statehood, ALL the Westminster parties will mean precisely the same to us as the Christian Democratic Party of Germany does at present.
There are only two options for anyone who wants Scottish independence to be a possibility – SNP or the Scottish Green Party. NOTHING ELSE will ever deliver even a hint of autonomy from Westminster. They can’t, period.
Still gets my goat that politicians elected to office by public vote assume they have any right whatsoever to deny any vote of any description to the people. No Referedum eh? What say we through you out your seat for for selling out the principles of democracy like a two bit fascist?
We have well paid “democrats” who pay lip service to democracy, and constitional arguments which do not grasp the importance and primacy of Scottish Sovereignty.
link to m.youtube.com
Time for a public information Wee Rule Book Rev Stu, in a colour of your choice.
robert alexander harrison Welsh independence? Ha, ha, ha. The same Wales which had a higher Leave vote than even the South East of England? The same Wales which has a Unionist First Minister? The same Wales which has a lower GDP per capita than every region and country of the UK bar the North East of England? The same Wales which has just seen its nationalist party, Plaid Cymru, dump the Socialist Leanne Wood as leader last week and replaced her with Adam Price who is even opening to working with the Tories in the Welsh Assembly?
Allan Moore hits the nail firmly on the head. There are those (in this case Labour) who will oppose Scottish self determination without any evidence based assessment. This approach is morally and intellectually wrong.
It divides 2014 NO voters into two groups.
Many did logically assess the two futures offered and then chose what they believed was best for them – the status quo. Or, to be precise, the offer of an enhanced status quo with FederalDevoSuperMax. For many the safe option was the Union.
Another group of NOs were simply Just-Say-NOs who were/are tied to ‘Britain’ almost theologically. No evidence, no logic, no appraisal, just cult following. Blind raw nationalism.
Every one of that first group are open to persuasion that the Union will not be the safe and secure option in IndyRef2. I have little doubt that the evidence based decision next time will be Indy for many previous NOs.
Well done Allan!
I admire the step taken in making such a public resignation. It highlights that you have put the arguement on the welfare and future of people before party loyalty…the very thing missing from the Scottish branch of Labour.
The quality of life for every generation to come in Scotland depends on a detailed comparison of choices at this juncture. It is not about repeating established political dogma. It is about the security and development of people.
You are the most recent in a long line of people in Scotland to have recognised and acted on the realisation of what Labour has become.
Thank You for sharing your letter. It is good to know that more and more people are becoming aware of the fork in the road that we have now arrived at.
TartanTory The Queen is still the Canadian Head of State and Canada has of course had its own separatist movement in Quebec where similar issues have arisen with 2 referendums on independence for Quebec from Canada (the second only failing 51% to 49%) and the Bloc Quebecois/ Parti Quebecois having in the past won most seats in Quebec and formed the government and competing against the main Canada wide parties. Indeed in 1993 the Bloc Quebecois were the main opposition to the Liberals across the whole of Canada in terms of MPs after the Canadian Tories lost power and were overtaken by the populist rightwing Reform Party
I see HYFUD is desperate to change the topic 🙂
He must have got an early call from HQ
Very interesting and articulate letter buta strange assertion about Scotland’s place in EU in 2014.
It was clear to many that a No vote would be a green light for emboldened English nationalism and the British right.
And it was.
Since we have got on the subject of “the shape of politics in a post-independence Scotland”. I feel we should be giving it some serious thought. Who will replace the conservative party? Who the Labour? I believe in an Independent Scotland they both would not survive.
The SNP have demonstrated that they are capable administrators, all be it that the opposition is not exactly what you would call “daunting”, they (the SNP) have still brought us a long way down the road. But in an independent Scotland we could really do with some serious opposition (not to Indy2!!) to keep is all honest.
just a thought
Given how similar the SNP and Labour policies are (except on independence), you would think they would be working together across Scotland. But NO, due to their petty minded and frankly infantile hatred of the SNP, Labour are in coalition with the Tories in councils up and down Scotland. Red tories and blue tories, hand in hand.
But this letter really nails it. Labour in Scotland would much rather spend their time doing anything to damage the SNP, than actually look at what Brexit will do to Scotland. Brexit is the cluster*** of cluster***s in modern political history. It will utterly destroy the economy in Scotland, and leave many wondering just how almost overnight, we were turned into a very poor country.
Brexit will literally mess up everything and every aspect of the lives of most Scots, and literally trash opportunities for young Scots. Yet Labour just sit around shouting the Tory mantra like stupid Tory puppets’ no indy referendum’. Labour have given it no thought. It is as the letter states total knee jerk policy. Anything to hate the SNP, whilst not giving a flying f*** about Scotland.
Labour’s attitude is, ‘let the Tories do whatever they please to Scotland. Let them trash Scotland’s economy, let them run down Scotland, destroy our food and drink sector. Let the Tories destroy the Scotland brand, washed away in a swirling sea of ‘union jackery’.
Who cares, says Labour, so long as we bash the SNP.
I do sincerely hope that in a few years, when sense starts to prevail again, that those responsible for brexit will be tried, convicted and put in jail, such is the depth of their criminal recklessness. They know they are lying to the people. They know this will destroy the economy, yet on they plough, with their ‘year zero’ dogma driven madness. They are craven self-centred clowns, quite happy to destroy the entire united kingdom.
And as for Labour, labour stand on the sidelines applauding.
HYFUD – Thank-you for your off-topic statement concerning recent Canadian history, but what your response to my post has to do with the issue at hand, I have no ideas. So long as you can make sense of it, I guess that’s ok.
BTW, did you know there is a separate Wings ‘off topic’ page for your kind of thing?
In 2014 “remaining in the UK was the only way to definitely protect EU membership. And at the time that was absolutely correct.” This is wrong, especially the use of ‘definitely’.There were risks to EU membership no matter what way we voted. In fact time has shown us that the only thing definite was No voters making Scotland powerless. Being dragged out of Europe is just one of the symptoms of being powerless and we all know there are many more. It is good this guy is open to changing his mind but he is focused only on one tree.
Clootie I was responding to earlier comments, on Scottish Labour I have no great care for them, I am a Tory after all.
My ideal result in the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections would be for Ruth Davidson to either become First Minister or hold the balance of power as to whether Leonard or Sturgeon becomes First Minister which on current Holyrood polling is not impossible
Why do the BritNat media continue with these mind numbing Ruth Davidson interviews?
Were you enlightened with what Ruthie said in her Sky News interview?
Davidson is fraud and my advice to her is when you are out walking with your newly born little BritNat is to keep on walking Ruthie.
Do us all a favour hen and retire.
What will Labour become when all the sane members leave.
The Conservatives are a car crash but rather than take them to task Labour have spent the last three years tearing themselves apart both in Scotland and the wider UK. Historians in the future will scratch their heads and wonder what exactly was going through the minds of the people involved (because I doubt the recorded utterances will make any more sense in 100 years time than they do now).
Or other matters I am loving the observation that the Conservative App is an example of how they will approach a technological solution to the Irish Border.
I think you can tell the blinkered BritNats from the soft NOs quickly if you ask folks why they oppose self determination.
Britnats will usually say it’s about being ‘British’ or loyalty to the monarchy, or some other vague idea. Sometimes they will dress it up as shared history and Empire. Or, we fought wars together. Just illogical waffle. Clearly this cultish stance is policy among the pro UK parties! They regurgitate it often enough!
Soft NOs will give arguments. Economy, currency, world standing, etc.. They have almost certainly come to their conclusion that Union is best because they have assessed only a subset of facts and data. And of course the media feed them fake information. When exposed to a wider world view and more comprehensive information, many will come to another conclusion. Providing info and letting people work it out for themselves is the best way to convert them.
Thank you Dr Moore for an excellent contribution to the discussion on why it is imperative that Scotland severs the damaging Union. I note that Unionists are emphasising our trade links within the UK compared to Europe but they forget that we in Scotland are are only hurt if they should shoot themselves in the foot. Oh dear,I am not sure about that however as Scotland would be in a trading group they would wish to trade with thay could not raise trade barriers.
Unionism is being portrayed as a cosy,cuddly and warmish sort of position but as the dug points out,if you lift the veil you see the snarling,selfish,imperialistic, jingoism of Brittish Nationalism. Not at all like the Scottish neighbourly Civic nationalism.
I still don’t feel any kind of affinity with people who in my mind take a stand on something relatively trivial in comparison to failing to take a stand previously on warmongering Trident renewal welfare cuts means testing tuition fees cash for honours cash for questions cash for access privatisation child sex crime cover ups the failure to abolish the House of Lords the failure to grow and enhance the Scottish Parliament getting into bed with the Tories on nearly every issue.
I look at the above letter and wonder where this guys head actually is. He was able to find a principle over Brexit but couldn’t find one over everything else wrong with Labour.
Welcome on board FINALLY but where the fuck have you been up til now? Right or wrong that is the sentiment I have for so many of the didn’t want to see what was and is right in front of their faces when it mattered and we had a golden chance to get out from under the worst levels of despotic fascism in the Western world.
RobertLouis , were the labour Party working with the SNP for the betterment of Scotland we might never gain independence, I am therefore quite delighted by their short sighted ‘all things bad are the SNP’s fault’.
I want my country free for the benefit of the children and grandchildren of Scotland and if the idiotic drivellings of labour in Scotland and their alignment with the Tories aids and abets that independence then I ain’t going to help them in rectifying their mistakes – sadly I can leave that to BBBC Scotland , STV and every damned newspaper bar one.
Wow!
This is as welcome as it is terrifying, quite frankly. When you sense that somebody with the knowledge that this person obviously has in European matters feels both danger and despair at the evident negligent and laissez faire approach followed by Labour with regards to Brexit, the last glimpse of hope that somewhere, someone within the Britnat Parties actually know what they are doing and where they are taking us, is completely gone.
Ouch.
“I did not vote for independence in 2014, but the circumstances HAVE changed.”
NOTHING HAS CHANGED. That’s the thing its business as usual.
When he says things have changed he means his perception of how things are have changed. Sorry Ive been blind blinkered and unwilling to see whats in front of my face for my whole adult life because I have never given a fuck about war poverty welfare deprivation privatisation political corruption criminal cover up constitutional subversion Tory Government after Tory Government.
Fucking Brexit is just another symptom of the Rule Britannia Yoon mentality that’s been plaguing Scotland since 1707.
How many more “Scots” are like this guy as yet to have a crises moment who still need an unfathomable trigger for them to recognise the reality we cant seem to be able to get across to them.
Christ its so frustrating when the reality is so in your face and yet so many refuse to acknowledge it because reasons.
The Nutty Professor Letter ( as he will become to be known as in Labour circles ) . I don’t think Leonard Richard or Kezia Dugdale will be reading Dr Moore’s letter out in Holyrood as they are given to doing every week ( give or take ) . Dr Moore’s letter has demonstrated a lot of forebearance from Kezia’s leadership to Richard Leonard’s but there again who said either had any IQ above freezing point , alternately they may have consulted their friend Prof Adam Tomkins as to his view of Dr Moore .
I hope that Nicola has both the letter & reply to hand at next FM Qs or ( a great opportunity missed ) to slap down the Labour Party & the Tories on Brexit .
Greannach says:
30 September, 2018 at 9:58 am
Very interesting and articulate letter buta strange assertion about Scotland’s place in EU in 2014.
It was clear to many that a No vote would be a green light for emboldened English nationalism and the British right.
And it was.
———————————————————–
Clearly this WASN’T the case. The British, aided and abetted by their media, clearly clouded the issue. Many people believed the garbage that was being spewed out by Crash Gordon and his ilk, many of whom now wear another mammals skin and have a tittle and job for life.
Hind sight is all revealing, but at that time, many couldn’t see what the good ol’ Aunty, even the name is designed to make it sound believable, had to say on the matter and therefore thought at the time to go for what they were lead to believe was the safe way to protect pensions, jobs etc.
This has been shown to be a pack of lies. Now, day by day, week by week, more and more people a seeing the truth of it and turning to the yes movement for clarification and once they realise the truth, they stop believing in their previously held beliefs.
The British have not saved them from disaster, they have lead them to the brink of it.
Once the conceit has been seen though, there is no return.
Bravely done Allan T Moore. Publicly announcing your resignation letter will likely be seen by some as treachery, but many will now stop to think about why they are still supporting the British Unionist Parties in Scotland and their sound bite politics and why they are still believing in their perfidity.
Welcome aboard Alan. It’s great that people with knowledge and experience of EU matters can speak out. The way Labour slip and slide around the issue of BREXIT is, in my view, a betrayal of the working class voters they pretend to speak for.
Scotland is better than that. We all want a fair and decent society free from the corrupting influence of Westminster. I can’t see Labour ever delivering that. They had 13 years from the 1997 landslide election when they could have achieved so much, but failed. We have to have an exit strategy.
On another point – the Dateline 2018 fundraiser reached it’s target last night. Congratulations to them.
You can also buy the Three Blokes in the Pub a beer, but you don’t have to, their pearls of wisdom on BREXIT are free.
link to youtube.com
2001:A Space Odyssey, 50 years on.
2018: A Brexit Odyssey. The MAY2000 computer is malfunctioning, it is aware of a terrible secret but cannot reveal the truth. Soon to be singing ‘Daisy,Daisy’ as the memory cells fail.
Providing info and letting people work it out for themselves is the best way to convert them.
Absolutely agree with your reasoned approach, galamcennalath.
Heaping blame on why they voted no will only alienate the very people who have heard the penny drop.
Extreme reactions of any kind both Scotnat and Britnat will not help in winning this. Make the newly converted welcome, not guilty.
The good Dr voted No in 2014.
Mug.
This must have been a hard decision for Dr. Moore but we finally appear to have some expert honesty. Thank you Dr. Moore.
link to cyber.harvard.edu
Liberal Rights and Critical Legal Theory
link to static1.squarespace.com
The democratic potential of systemic pluralism
link to cambridge.org
McBoxheid says:
Different people reach their personal epiphany at different times regarding the true reality of the UK’s truly awful constitutional system and its engrained right wing bias.
Yes, not enough saw through “the garbage” in 2014.
Clearly Allan Moore believed enough of it to assess NO was safest/best, perhaps with his professional EU focus that was key. We we told NO meant EU membership, guaranteed. He will have his reasons. And he certainly isn’t alone in considering NO best, given what they felt they knew back in 2014!
In the last week a relative was speaking to a group of Lithuanians some who live in Scotland, some back home. There assessment of the UK and Brexit? Their main thought on the matter is that UK voters appeared far more gullible and easily charmed than they are used to.
Ive watched quite a few of those incredible “Journey to Yes” videos. They’re really well done and they tell a very important message but at the same time they leave me gobsmacked at how its possible to blind people to realities they couldn’t possibly fail to notice and be affected by.
Im hearing so many people saw “the light” after 2014. WHY? whats new? The Tories Labour and the Lib Dems broke promises? Really? That’s whats new? They couldn’t see that coming? They didn’t understand that the media lies? They didn’t understand that the media supported the Union?
There is a serious question that has to be addressed here and that concerns why people are allowing themselves to ignore realities they cant fail to recognise until something which they must have known would happen happens.
There is something deeply disturbing about the grip the UK state has over its constituent parts. Something in the psyche that has people wanting to believe in it in spite of all the harm it does to them. An Uncle Tam syndrome that takes something akin to a gelding to break.
Welcome to reality Dr Moore. Sometimes our hopes and instincts drive us on to hold beliefs which have gone well over their sell by date.
These can be difficult to accept, but nonetheless it is essential for your own wellbeing to finally cross the floor to the other side. As a former Labour voter for most of my life, I persisted in the belief that the track of the party was only temporary. I was wrong. Labour and Socialist principles no longer share a commonality.
Let us put aside our dissapointment and work together for the common good. There is a better way.
O/T…
Someone with access to the official Embra ‘Fuzz’ Twitter account seems to have nailed their red, white & blue colours to the mast by tweeting their support for the SiU (Scotland is Useless) “Yawn” campaign. (Tedious indeed!).
Had to laugh when some wag replied to their latest crime tweet with “Blame the SNP”.
Taking lessons on public relations from the Guardia Civil perhaps?
Brilliantly put Alan:
“in Scotland, lose its identity, purpose, and relevance as it has moved toward becoming a party of soundbite policies and pure opposition, devoid of any substance or reasoned opinion.”.
The labour party in Scotland appears to exist to:
– pay a wage to elected and non elected members.
– support the union.
– a club for those who unite around bitterness towards others and a nostalgia for the past, a past that was not that great and left vast swathes of people suffering poverty and vast inequalities.
As for Kezia, Alan are you surprised you received no reply? I am not! Her current court case relates to something she said and was paid to say to a newspaper and she has the brass neck to expect her employer pay her court case costs? What’s that all about, she should have weighed pros and cons and apologised out of court.
Alan, were you really going to follow Kezia out of the trenches?
Regards Richard Leonard, it’s embarrassing a party in Scotland would elect such a non entity, he is a pathetic waste of space for multiple reasons!
Mike says: 30 September, 2018 at 11:26 am
“There is a serious question that has to be addressed here and that concerns why people are allowing themselves to ignore realities they cant fail to recognise until something which they must have known would happen happens.”
I wonder that too!
It’s like sticking with a company or bank who you know are ripping you off to your face for years – but you stay with them?
What suprises me about Alan, obviously a very bright guy, he must have had political blinkers on up to Sept 2018. He is not alone.
labour party members went into and are still in “denial over Iraq” – how has this been allowed to happen and worse – continue, collective denial of hundreds of thousands?
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me!
Mike
Our identities shape the way we perceive real world circumstances, whilst fear and self-interest undermines our cognitive and critical abilities. Our characters determine how we handle this, and so subsequently our decisions.
Scotland thought it was voting in a democratic plebiscite in 2014 but the value of the process was undermined by a partisan media landscape which overwhelmingly supported the British nationalist ‘status quo’. These fuds are using tactics, which suggest they may have a strategy. A strategy of hegemonic discourse based on technologies of power and psychological domination. 😉
Calum McKay
Brilliantly put Alan:
“in Scotland, lose its identity, purpose, and relevance as it has moved toward becoming a party of soundbite policies and pure opposition, devoid of any substance or reasoned opinion.”.
Whats brilliant about somebody finally acknowledging a reality that’s existed for decades? a period where he not only didn’t acknowledge it but fully supported and participated in its growth until it did something that affected him at a personal level.
Is Kezia Dugdale to be given credit for criticising Labour because they wont give her anymore money to support her personal expense crises? We just forgive and forget her own personal participation in Labours journey?
Interesting.
Yet another car crash interview from May on the Marr Show.
Will Labour pick up any votes? … the latest poll shows that they lost a couple of points following what was their least car crashy conference for a few years.
I think that May could announce work camps for the poor and those who look suspiciously foreign and Labour would still toil to actually achieve any traction.
Capella 10.54
Finally got round to the rest of ‘3 blokes in a pub’.
Its the details that are the prize attraction.
Even pallettes need documentation, never mind the goods on them!
And for those whose lives depend on insulin …
link to archive.is
Once again I emphasise that Unionism is the PR wing of British Nationalism. The imperialist nonsense I listened to yesterday about “our” aircraft carrier stuck in ma craw. Now we are having a fetish of Britain and Northern Ireland in 2022.
When I read those here who berate people for not turning to Yes sooner I am reminded both of my Free Kirk upbringing and hell and damnation and my teenage Marxist “ friends “ who made enemies of those they wished to convert.
Independence is simply the normality and Unionism is the lunacy. But be patient with those who are not as clev.er as you as I notice that festival came out as fetish above. Keep smiling!
A strategy of hegemonic discourse
based onemploying technologies of power and psychological domination.The No to Yes where the individual wrestles with a desire for the status quo and emotional ties but cannot defy the logic of what is happening is very powerful. Many of us have found it easier and I applaud Dr Moore and how he came to his decision. It is a hard choice for some but it is what is right in the end that counts.
Ruth Davidson is allowed to consolidate Richard Leonard’s position on another IndyRef in an interview with Gordon Brewer. She is coached into the decision. ‘Don’t you think you should do that too?’, asks Brewer. Well since you mention it, replies Ruth.
She does look very puffy and pale and may be struggling with her pregnancy but this tippytoeing around is ridiculous. Either be completely accountable or opt out.
When does it end, after the baby is born? When the baby goes to school, University, becomes a Tory MSP?
OT May has unveiled plans for a post-Brexit Festival of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The festival, inspired by the 1851 Great Exhibition and the 1951 Festival of Britain, is scheduled to take place in 2022.
Personally I hope, and believe, the UK won’t exist by 2022!
Cameron B Brodie
While I agree with your incisive description at an individual level I have yet to understand how that attitude manifests itself within a couple of million people at the same time regarding the same issues.
We’re talking about a couple of million characters ALL DIFFERENT a couple of million identities ALL DIFFERENT and yet all affected the same way by a need to deny realities that harm them in various ways. All of them WANTING to believe this is as good as it gets in spite of all the evidence and realities pointing to the fact that it isn’t.
Your point is certainly valid when put against individual perceptions but it kind of falls away when you increase the number of individuals exponentially.
Plucky underdog Kezia Dugdale has made it her lifes mission to fight the dreaded Tories at evey turn, that’s why she asked the people of Scotland to vote Tory, but plucky Kezia keeps on fighting the bad guys like Wings over Scotlands Stuart Campbell by using Newspapers and Parliamentary priviledge to do it and when her own party fail to fund Kezias missions anymore she turns on them too, just like she’ll do with the Daily Record when they pull the rug out from under her and make her way to the Scotsman
Inbetween all that Kezia goes on the telly to take part in a game show which she claimed would be a vehicle for telling the world her politics, so a force for good then eh, except she didn’t tell the world anything and the TV people still paid her lots of lovely dosh anyway to do nothing but collect lots of dosh
Now anybody who is or was a Labour supporter and couldn’t see through what a self serving money grabbing idiot Kezia Dugdale is needs something looked at in their head by medical professionals and to come out now and say *I wus fooled* by the arguments of my party is as disengenuous as the party they supported, but for an eminant professional to do it is worse because it points to someone who wasn’t paying attention and voted purely on Kezias *British* argument knowing that she was and is an idiot
But there’s more and it’s even worse, Scotland is full of people who aren’t paying attention and no matter how many discredited politicians are brought down on the *British* side those Scots going to keep right on voting against Scotland because it’s the habit they’re in and the TV won’t tell them any different because they’ll keep telling the people who don’t pay attention that maybe Scotland is getting a tiny wee bit better sometimes we’re still useless poverty stricken lazy benefit scrounging sick people who can’t possibly live without the largesse of the country next door, because remember no matter what Scotland is we’re just not English and they not us ARE genetically programmed to rule even though they’re uneducated idiot liars
because it’s in their blood so *jist leave it tae them and shut up eh*
It also means you don’t actually have to be responsible for anything and like Kezia you can always blame *The government* and not yourself
For those ‘critical’ of no voters taking so long to see the light.
Watch the Manson Tapes two-parter on ITV.
Group think has an easy entrance and a difficult exit.
link to archive.is
The song the BBC won’t play
link to youtube.com
Breeks
That’s the first time I’ve seen that, nice one. 😉
link to link.springer.com
Let’s not forget: despite being humiliated, robbed blind and repeatedly kicked in the head for years, there are still those amongst us who will always take the pro-union press and vote for the Union. Such is the abysmal state of academic research into this and other related socio-political phenomena in Scotland, it looks like the Indy movement will be working-in-the-dark for the foreseeable future.
Dr Moore rightly calls for evidence-based argumentation from the opponents of Independence; I think we should be calling for the very same thing if we are to begin to understand the mentality that motivates the considerable NO voting blok in Scotland.
A forlorn hope, I know.
Famous 15
Its not a question of being clever its a question of being willing to acknowledge realities which fly in the face of narratives you want to believe in. A willingness needed because the narrative you want to believe in is self destructive.
Its a case of people willing to self harm in order to keep faith with their narrative.
For far too many that narrative is a jingoistic self pride in belonging to something perceived to be powerful respected and domineering.
We’ve all been brought up within the UK state system where the narrative of Rule Britannia and Britain is great is promoted from school age to present day. The full member state of the UN security council a full member of the G7 the martial glory of our Empire days all white washed and glorified. The Dunkirk spirit.
I could go on because there is so much of it.
You ask a unionist why he is a unionist and they will either default to Scotland being too wee too poor and too stupid for Independence or they will clam up because none of them want to admit to the only motivation they have jingoism.
They accuse us of ruling with the heart instead of the head but that’s pure projection of their own motivations.
There are no actual advantages for Scotland being within the Union NONE. There is no pooling and sharing no real sense of shared identity no common purpose in spite of all the internal conditioning we’ve all endured since childhood. Our separate identities have been far too strong for this union to have reached its conclusive journey that of being a single cohesive state. The Union has failed and its way past time it was ended. Why so many people fail to acknowledge that reality is the mystery im trying to fathom.
@ mike cassidy – yes it’s so refreshing to listen to people who know what they’re talking about re BREXIT.
The Independent article had a headline:
UK’s biggest insulin manufacturer building up four-month stockpile in case of no-deal Brexit
which puzzled me as the three blokes in the pub said that we don’t manufacture insulin in the UK.
Were they wrong? No.
Reading down the article the manufacturers are in Denmark and France. The headline is still always wrong!
Mrs Mays *festival of Britain* requires one boy and one girl from each of the *regions* of *our precious Union* to be sent to the *capitol* as a *tribute*
Mrs May’s doing the Hunger games now and she thinks she’s President Snow, or they’re really really just taking the piss at the highest level and Scotland is still stuck with politically blind deaf and dumb idiots who can’t see that as they’re handed their wee Union flag on a stick to wave at the right time
Over to you Kim Jong
I wonder if there’ll be a flypast or tanks or sojurs, and the Queen! maybe the Queen’ll be there, gosh it all sounds great
Mike Cassidy
Im pretty sure there’s never been any group think experiments carried out on 2 million people within the same group narrative before.
Group think. Have a word.
@robert alexander harrison says: 30 September, 2018 at 9:04 am:
” … a union that’s already dead as Welsh independence murmurs are on the rise it seems and with talk of a reunification of Ireland the UK is no longer the UK even in name then when those two come to pass it’s turning into a game of who abandons England frist Scotland Wales or Northern Ireland.”
I hate to have to keep doing this, Robert, but it is the most fundamental of all fundamental facts about the, “United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland”.
The United Kingdom is a union of ONLY two Kingdoms.
It is not a union of four countries. Thus, whether Wales or N. Ireland and England like it or not, The Kingdom of Scotland is the only partner kingdom with the Kingdom of England in the United Kingdom.
In case that has not sunk in I’ll state it a different way for you.
If Northern Ireland decides to leave the United Kingdom then it is legally the province of N. Ireland leaving the Kingdom of England. The Union of the two Kingdoms created by the Treaty of Union will thus continue but with The Kingdom of England without their province of Northern Ireland.
If Wales decides to become independent then it is legally the English Principality of Wales leaving the Kingdom of England and the bipartite United Kingdom created by the Treaty of Union will continue with the Kingdom of England reduced to only England and the English Province of Northern Ireland.
When the Kingdom of Scotland decides the United Kingdom is over – it is over and the Status Quo Ante is a return to the two independent Kingdoms of the Kingdom of Scotland and the three country Kingdom of England.
It really is that simple. The United Kingdom is legally a bipartite union of kingdom it is not a quadratic union of countries.
Wales & Ireland were annexed parts of the Kingdom of England from 1284 and 1542 respectively. That is Wales was legally part of The English Kingdom for 423 years before there was a United Kingdom and Ireland was an integral part of the Kingdom of England for 165 years before there was a united kingdom.
Scotland has never legally been an integral part of The Kingdom of England just an equally sovereign partner in the two partner United Kingdom.
To state that in even another way. If either Wales or N. Ireland choose to become independent they will be leaving the Kingdom of England and the United Kingdom will continue but if Scotland becomes independent the United Kingdom ends.
But the Westminster Establishment, “doesn’t want you to know that”, and have been brainwashing the World to believe the United Kingdom is a four partner unified country for centuries.
That must have taken a toll on Mr Moore. A hard place to find yourself and a harder action to take.
If it’s any consolation? There’s a lot of folk in Scotland who used to be Labour voters or members and had exactly that same moment and decision to make.
Well done Mr Moore.
Mike
Identities are central to political outlook and the British national identity has been bummed up to the max for a very long time. A lot of folk have internalised this identity to varying degree and felt threatened even by the suggestion of questioning ‘reality’. Folk also tend to be parochial in their information processing habits and often believe any rubbish so long as there is no alternative presented for consideration.
Plus, although Britain is a total shit-hole, there are lots of places that are shittier. And stuff. As well as some different stuff. And things. 😉
link to cpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com
I must admit, after seeing a pic of Leonard rejoicing underneath a headline of “My resignation from the Labour party” I was a teeny bit disappointed on reading the article.
Well done anyway Allen, another candidate for a NO to YES video perhaps.
Addendum to my previous post. Note that when, “The Irish Free State”, became Independent:-
“blockquote>The Irish Free State (from 6 December 1922 – 29 December 1937) was established as Dominion and was not in fact legally, “Free”, from its established in 1922 under the Anglo-Irish Treaty of December 1921 until Southern Ireland declared itself a Republic on 29 December 1937). Note that it was established in 1922 under the, “Anglo -Irish Treaty of December 1921. (Anglo is England – Not the United Kingdom).
If Southern Ireland had been part of a four country United Country of Great Britain and Ireland then that union of countries would have ended but it didn’t and all Anglo-Irish, (so called Treaty of Union), did was change the title by adding, “& Northern Ireland”. to the title.
Perhaps a version of this should go out as “public service” information. Does the Scottish government not have a mandate to do such?
link to www1.bps.org.uk
Around 150 Polish pilots flew Hurricanes and Spitfires in the Battle of Britain and destroyed approximately 205 enemy planes with around 70 or so so badly damaged they would have not returned successfully to their home bases
But new Union Britain doesn’t want these immigrants
Shall we do the Gurkhas now and …….
The reason I mention this is I just read on Twitter a Northern Irishman living in Scotland complaining about immigrants because he’s too moronically stupid to realise we all came from somewhere else
Maybe there’s a British DNA that’s special and unique just for subservient nutcases
Mike says: 30 September, 2018 at 11:55 am
‘Whats brilliant about somebody finally acknowledging a reality that’s existed for decades? a period where he not only didn’t acknowledge it but fully supported and participated in its growth until it did something that affected him at a personal level.”
I thought the words Alan used to express his presonal severing with labour were well put and heartfelt. It’s not easy to admit you were wrong and your faith in others was built on lies.
It is important for those in the independence camp to hold out an olive brach to those like Alan, make them welcome, value their knowledge and the perspective they bring.
I am not uncritical of those like Alan, as I stated, how have they have manged to walk through the years without seeing the union as a sham supported by lies, influence and money that resides elsewhere. Ultimately, we need people like Alan on side to win, so their conversion is to be welcomed.
I draw a distinction between Alan and the likes of Kezia who have driven the too poor, wee and stupid agenda. I believe most in labour know the union is not in Scotland’s interests, but they support it regardless, beacuse its the London party line. They have a similar stance on brexit, they know its bad but support it.
So rather than excessivley criticising Alan, I’d be interested to know what was it that retained his loyalty to unionism, over the years? How can we then use his and other converts views to inform our own and secure our goal.
HI YA FUD
Ruth Davidson? she the one that’s trailing around England newspapers and news outlets touting herself.
She has neglected her day job for too long, ignoring constituency work preferring the odd press release.
Did you know she’s havin a wee baba. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
Who needs to worry over loss of jobs through brexit, the tories tearing each other apart & forgetting their day job IS SUPPOSED to govern the RUK which they have failed to do. More debt austerity more unemployed on the way. Davidson and her creepy crew are not fit to govern.
Dr Jim says
Aye, Britain has never been the same since we let the Roman’s in. Or was it the Angles, Saxons, Jutes, Norse, Danes, Normans, Flemish, or Huguenots?
And the hunter gatherers must have thought the place has gone totally to Hell when the farmers arrived.
Robert Peffers @12:39
Why do people still insist that the United Kingdom came into being in 1707? The words “united kingdom” as they appeared in the original treaty documents brought before the two parliaments was a ‘descriptive’ term and did not form part of the title of the unified state; Kingdom of Great Britain.
The clue is in the title of the unified parliament of 1707; ‘Parliament of Great Britain’. NOT ‘Parliament of the United Kingdom’, which didn’t come about until 1801!
Revisionist historians repeatedly change the original term “united kingdom” to “United Kingdom”, and by simply altering the case of the letters “u” and “k” perpetuate the myth that the “UK” was formed in 1707, as opposed to 1801.
1707 saw the creation of a unified ‘Kingdom of Great Britain’ and ‘Parliament of Great Britain’. 1801 saw the creation of a ‘United Kingdom of Great Britain & Ireland’ and ‘Parliament of the United Kingdom’.
If the UK had been created in 1707 then the unified parliament at that time would have been styled the ‘Parliament of the United Kingdom’. It wasn’t…
Calum McKay
I get the sentiment but I cant share it. What I see is somebody who has ignored some seriously bad levels of political corruption for decades. Cases involving genocide through illegal warmongering criminal cover up involving everything from child sex crimes to enquiry whitewashing constitutional subjugation through the denial of Parliamentary powers and authority being devolved welfare denial to the most needy and vulnerable the promotion of privatisation that increases the cost of living for the poorest and most vulnerable.
A joint coordinated cooperation between Labour and the Tories to sustain a UK state that is fascist and Neo Liberal in nature.
And when he finally took a stand he didn’t do it on the basis of humanity or decency or the welfare of those in need he did it for his own personal perceptions of Brexit.
I may share his views on Brexit but what are his views on everything else? Have those changed?
@HYUFD says: 30 September, 2018 at 9:44 am:
… The Queen is still the Canadian Head of State “
Bloody hilarious – were you not, just a few days ago, lecturing us on Wings about how the Queen wasn’t sovereign and just a figurehead?
In any case, as usual, you spout claptrap. There is absolutely no comparison between the legal status of Canada, which was first a colony then became a dominion and the Kingdom of Scotland which was, until 1707, a totally independent kingdom and then until today, legally, a equally sovereign partner kingdom with the, three country, Kingdom of England in a bipartite United Kingdom.
Dave McEwan Hill I don’t think a Bbc ban on Sir Rods copy of a song will put a dent in his finances , another Establishment exceptee of the titled British honours system Fek im .
@ DMH – that’s a cracking song from Rod Stewart. I wonder if he will sing it at Hamden.
link to youtube.com
Robert Peffers
I. ‘That the two Kingdoms of (fn. 1) Scotland and England, shall, upon the first Day of May next ensuing the Date hereof, and for ever after, be united into one Kingdom by the Name of Great-Britain, and that the Ensigns Armorial of the said united Kingdom, be such as her Majesty shall appoint; and the Crosses of St. Andrew and St. George be conjoined in such a manner as her Majesty shall think fit, and used in all Flags, Banners, Standards, and Ensigns, both at Sea and Land.
The very first use of the term United Kingdom can be found in the first article of the Act of Union 1707.
The act of Union 1707 created the joint Parliamentary union between the Parliament of Scotland and the then Parliament of England AND WALES as the Welsh Parliament had been ANNEXED by the Parliament of England in 1282.
This created the JOINT Parliament of the United Kingdom of Great Britain. The member states being Scotland England AND WALES. In 1801 Ireland formed a treaty alliance with the JOINT PARLIAMENT OF THE UK of GB. NOT with the Parliament of England as that no longer existed in 1801.
That gave us the UK of GB AND Ireland. Today its the UK of GB AND NI.
The significance of this is constitutionally huge. It means in effect that when Scotland becomes Independent the joint Parliamentary union of the UK of GB ceases to exist. What that means for NI is that the treaty that exists between the Parliament of the UK of GB and NI will also cease to exist by default. Scotland and NI become Independent simultaneously.
Not something you’ll ever hear a Yoon acknowledge but a singular constitutional FACT nevertheless.
@Sharny Dubs says: 30 September, 2018 at 9:58 am:
” … I believe in an Independent Scotland they both would not survive.”
They can’t survive, Sharny. Any more than can a united kingdom survive when there is two independent kingdoms.
The SNP has, since its inception been a very broad collection of left to right politically. The thing that holds them together is independence. I expect that the SNP will be re-elected for some years but will slowly split up and the right and left leaning members will drift off as new right and left parties emerge.
I isn’t that long ago the party expelled Alex Salmond and Margo McDonald from the party. If it comes to keeping it honest, the fact that what binds the SNP together vanishes with independence will sort that out for it will only be the most right wing and most left wing that will drift away and the remainder will form the basis of the slightly left of centre SNP party we have today.
Mike says: 30 September, 2018 at 1:28 pm
“Calum McKay – I get the sentiment but I cant share it.”
We beg to differ!
We need Alan and others to win freedom.
Pragmatisim and what is of benefit to Scotland should win the day. If no olive branch is held out, what motivation is there for Alan and others to move away from uniomnism?
Purity is fine – but you don’t take the people with you! We need to be a broad movement made up of people from different backgrounds with one common objective. It’s not a primary concern of mine how long people have believed in independence, only that they do now!
I’ve been wary of delving into Constitutional theory as I’m very out of practice, but here goes. Oh for a written constitution that enshrines a respect for human rights. One can dream.
Erudite Primer to the Constitutional Practice of
Deliberative Democracy
link to scielo.br
Rule of law and constitutionalism
link to uantwerpen.be
Constitutional Democracy: Creating and Maintaining a Just Political Order
Principles of Constitutional Design
link to academic.oup.com
@c says: 30 September, 2018 at 10:05 am:
” … which on current Holyrood polling is not impossible.”
Good grief, HYUFD, you are even more delusional than I first thought. Even more so than May, Boris and Moggy put together – and that takes some doing.
It is interesting to explore how the learned helplessness of the Scots has been fostered. It has been and is still a terrible process employed by sociopathic people whose only purpose has been self interest.
However, in the past ten years there has been a positive process in play that has gone a long way towards exposing the truth and it is truly remarkable how many Scots have been able to throw off the shackles. But for each individual it has been a personal journey, helped by the awareness that they are not alone in undertaking it.
As someone who has rejected the cringe for my whole lifetime it enrages me that a very large number of my fellow Scots seem interminably slow in acknowledging what has been done to them. BUT I have no choice but to accept the truth that it is their individual journey and I have to be patient.
The saving grace from my point of view is that when someone actually understands there is no turning back.
I see that the Maybot in her desperation is resorting to the old Bread and Circuses trick with her reprise of The Festival of Britain in 2022.
Unfortunately with Brexit there is likely to be a shortage of bread long before 2022.
I see that a new TV series starts next week titled’ Why Does The Rest Of The World Hate England’.
I find it difficult to believe that a program with that title produced in Perfidious Albion will end up agreeing with the title.
It will be interesting to see what its conclusions are – probably that the whole world actually loves England and is profoundly jealous of its wonders.
Sorry, thought I should point out I don’t think all No voters were British nationalists. There are approx. 20% of the Scottish electorate that would never vote for self-determination under any circumstances. Tories, poorly educated xenophobes, religious bigots, Fabians, non-critical thinkers and the like.
Contemporary British nationalism articulates far-right, ‘common sense’, authoritarian, populism. Simples.
A party without principle, the Labour sham stumbles on.
Richard Leonard may very well wish to deny voters the choice at another independence reference. That’s what non-democrats do. They deny choice.
But his resolute choice to deny choice is no different from the hapless Dugdale who now being called to account for publicly calling Stuart Campbell a homophobe, has now spent £100k of Labour members money, not defending the action, but trying to have it not heard at all.
And now with a £100k of members burnt Dugdale bemoans that she has been cut adrift.
Well frig her. She should have thought a bit harder before she pulled the racist, sectarian, sexist, anti gay allegation that crumby politicos see as part of their tool kit.
Leonard, Dugdale, and the legion of hardly remembered pygmies deserve all they get.
And if they take the house off our ” I’m a Celebrity ” game show star, well hell mend her.
Of course, if she’s done nothing wrong, what’s her beef?
@galamcennalath says: 30 September, 2018 at 1:21 pm:
” … And the hunter gatherers must have thought the place has gone totally to Hell when the farmers arrived.”
Well no, galamcennalath, it has long been established that the hunter gatherers and the early farmers were concurrent.
@ Dave, Amazing Grace! thanks for that!
@robertknight says: 30 September, 2018 at 1:23 pm:
” … Why do people still insist that the United Kingdom came into being in 1707? The words “united kingdom” as they appeared in the original treaty documents brought before the two parliaments was a ‘descriptive’ term and did not form part of the title of the unified state … “
That’s rich considering that the Westminster Parliament that rebelled against their monarchy in 1688 and deposed the monarchy pf England were claiming that there was a United Kingdom formed in 1603. Mind you there was a United Kingdom formed in 1603. Thing was it was only a personal United Kingdom for the enthroned monarch.
Calum McKay
People like Allen will not be influenced by a welcome or a rebuttal. They operate at a level of conviction free self preservation. Something about Brexit has rocked his boat and now he’s upset it wont matter to him how you or I feel about it.
How does Scotland become an Independent country?
When enough of the population want Scotland to become an Independent country is the obvious answer as there is no other.
Like Allan I too was once a member of the Labour party in Scotland admittedly I didn’t last long but continued to vote for them right up until 2010 where along with over 1 million others did the same and voted for Gordon Brown. The SNP on the other hand in that GE had less than half the Labour vote at a little under 0.5 million.
In 2012 I didn’t vote for any party in the Scottish council elections as for the first time in my life I felt I had no one to vote for and it looks like a lot of other people who supported Labour, in many cases for their entire lives felt the same and at the last GE there vote was down by 300,000 votes and the SNP’s vote up by 500,000.
You most definitely don’t need to be a supporter of the SNP in order to support Independence and I very much welcome all support from any quarter. I hope Allan will also support Independence in a second referendum and if we’re going to win this then we need others just like Allan to change their mind and get on board.
So a big welcome from me and to any others who change their mind as that is never an easy thing to do.
Mike says: 30 September, 2018 at 11:26 am
“why people are allowing themselves to ignore realities they cant fail to recognise until something which they must have known would happen happens.”
Insecurity: because somehow they have convinced themselves or they were led to believe that the alternative- the unknown- is even worse.
Robert Peffers Last time I checked there were Welsh MPs and Northern Irish MPs, the largest Northern Ireland Party even holds the balance of power in the House of Commons. Wales and Northern Ireland also both have their same assemblies. Hardly being ‘annexed by England.’ Plus while technically the Queen is Queen of England and Scotland as one unified crown, Prince Charles is Prince of Wales which is a Principality rather than just being part of the Kingdom of England
Hamish100 Unemployment is now 4%, half the 8% Labour left in 2010
The SNP reached their absolute peak in the General Election of 2015 winning 1,454,436 votes in Scotland. We also know that not everyone who supports the SNP necessarily supports Independence and that in fact more than 10% oppose it.
To win a second referendum we are going to need something like at least another 300,000 supporters or around 20% more than the entire vote achieved by the SNP in 2015.
We can and I believe we will get that additional support and if we do, then it’s a certainty that the great majority of that additional support will come from those that currently vote Labour.
It is irrelevant in my opinion, the when of them arriving at that decision and only that they do so before the next referendum..
Mike Westminster would still have NI MPs, it would be England, Wales and Northern Ireland
Robert Peffers The Queen may be a largely ceremonial Head of State and the power really held by Liberal PM Trudeau and the Canadian Parliament but she remains Head of State and both Trudeau and the Leader of the Canadian Tory Opposition, Andrew Scheer, are monarchists
Steady on Mike.
I hear what you are saying but remember that we live in system which, sadly, for the most part, rewards the best liars whether that be in politics, journalism or business.
And, by and large, the very best at lying get to the top.
Their job is to make people trust them, while in reality working to maintain an establishment collusion which looks after its own interests first and views the ordinary person as no more than a herd of inferior beings to be manipulated and ripped off.
They have had a long time to practice and hone their black art and are very good at it.
Yes a lot of the public are too trusting for their own good but it is not that surprising.
While all we who have been enlightened want that stinking pile of corrupta which laughingly comports itself as being a paragon of democracy in the UK to be rumbled and removed, I’m not sure how much of that can be blamed on a public whose only fault has been to have been too trusting.
Look forward to the day when I can regain some of the trusting side of my nature I’ve lost myself over the years.
He hasn’t actually said he’s a YES yet, but that the Labour party should not dismiss Independence, nor be against a Referendum regardless of Brexit. The thing is, to give Dugdale credit, she did try to change the party to allow a free vote but got put in her place, and she also asked for new blood, and as an article from Rev pointed out, was snubbed by that as well, there were only a couple of new ones. The Labour party in Scotland has turned its back on change and any sort of progress, rooted only in opposition to Independence, a referendum – and the SNP. It is doomed if it carries on that way. People have had faith and hope in it, and it’s spurned them.
Robert Peffers The last Holyrood poll had the SNP on 44% on the constituency vote and 33% on the regional list vote, down on the 46.5% and 41.7% it got in 2016.
The Tories were on 24% on the constituency vote and 19% on the regional list vote and Labour 21% in the constituency vote and regional list vote.
The poll before that had the SNP on 41% and 36%, the Tories on 27% and 27% and Labour on 22% and 22%.
Even adding the SNP and Green votes together on the regional list, in 2016 the SNP and Greens got 48.3% combined. The latest Holyrood poll has the SNP and Greens on 44% and the previous poll on just 42% combined, again well down on 2016.
link to en.wikipedia.org
As a result then to stay in power in Holyrood after 2021 Sturgeon and the SNP will almost certainly have to rely on the votes of Davidson’s Tories on an issue by issue basis, the Greens alone will not be enough.
Ruth Davidson’s Tories after the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections will therefore likely hold the balance of power between Labour and the LDs and the SNP and the Greens
FUD is a delusion
Must be double time on a Sunday.
HYUFD
No NI wouldn’t have LEGITIMATE MPs sitting in Westminster in the event of Scottish Independence for the reasons Ive explained above. With no joint UK Parliament there is no treaty of union between the BRAND NEW Parliament of England Wales and NI.
If these 3 states want to form a Union they’re going to have to draft a whole new treaty of Union between them. I cant see that happening this side of another Irish civil war and neither can you.
Do we have any constitutional lawyers in the house?
link to watermark.silverchair.com
Legal Theory Lexicon 066: Baselines
link to lsolum.typepad.com
Rethinking Manner and Form: From Parliamentary Sovereignty to Constitutional Values
link to digitalcommons.osgoode.yorku.ca
Fair play Dr Allan, hopefully some of your other colleagues in your now ex-Labour Party, review their own situation there and come to a similar understanding of same, to be of and for Scotland. Yes is good.
Kindly consider coming to join us in Edinburgh for 6/10 event Al.
*
*
Just for interest…
The United Kingdom is actually just a ‘ceremonial kingdom’.
Ye ken like ken… it’s ‘UK’ in name only (UKINO) 😉
Any concurrences or corrections welcome.
HYUFD
Unemployment is not measured in terms of people out of work its measured in terms of those allowed to apply for unemployment welfare and benefits.
As its far harder to qualify for unemployment benefits and welfare the number of unemployed able to claim will have reduced without the number of actual unemployed reducing.
So spare us the UK state propaganda we get enough of that on Yoon sites.
HYUFD
If Scotland doesn’t take its Independence before 2021 there wont be a Devolved Parliament for Ruth Davidson to sit in let alone hold the balance of power.
O/T How’s about an alternative to Lord Tebbit’s “cricket test” for Asian Brits?
Which team did you support in the Ryder Cup? 🙂
This one keeps rearing its ugly head, yet the legislation itself is quite clear.
link to legislation.gov.uk
First provision: “Act Ratifying and Approving the Treaty of Union of the Two Kingdoms of SCOTLAND and ENGLAND”
takes what was and specifies what will become – incidentally confirimg that there was no legal union of the two kingdoms before the treaty and act(s) of union. So much for 1603, though that was the union of crowns, not kingdoms.
Second provision: “That the Two Kingdoms of Scotland and England shall upon the first day of May next ensuing the date hereof and forever after be United into One Kingdom by the Name of Great Britain And that the Ensigns Armorial of the said United Kingdom be . . .”
specifying the date of enactment and referring to the result on that day “the said Unitied Kingdom”.
Third provision: “That the Succession to the Monarchy of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and of the Dominions ”
setting the terms of the monarchy, the had of state not parliament
Fourth provision: “That the United Kingdom of Great Britain be Represented by one and the same Parliament to be stiled the Parliament of Great Britain ”
specifies the parliament (not crown) and uses the full name of the legal entity that results from the union.
So 1800/18011 added Ireland to the already estabished union – the “United Kingdom of Great Britain”, to modify it and create, well, nobody really knows, and since it was “[1.]. The Parliaments of England and Ireland have agreed upon the articles following:“, nobody can really tell what happened as there was no Parliament of England at that time, so it perhaps has no legal status at all! Ah well. In real terms it moved on to the UK of GB and NI in the 20th century.
link to legislation.gov.uk
But basically speaking as Forsyth, ex SOS for Scotland said in the House of Lords in 2012, “if Scotland leaves the UK, the UK ceases to exist. What it would call itself nobody knows, but it would not be the United Kingdom (as that ceased to exist).” (that’s not an exact quote, it’s an accurate from memory paraphrase).
Mike Westminster is sovereign and can do what it likes, there is no written constitution in the UK, so England Wales and NI would remain in the same Parliament under just 1 Westminster Statute
Mike The UK employment rate is its highest since records began
link to theguardian.com
The Tories plan is to ensure Ruth Davidson becomes the first Scottish Tory leader to hold the balance of power at Holyrood since Annabel Goldie from 2007 to 2011 when the Tories held the balance of power between the SNP administration and the previous Labour and LD administration, not to scrap Holyrood.
Take it up with your fellow Conservative who knows a thing or two more than you do. Forsyth, ex SOS for Scotland said:
“In 1603, we had the union of the Crowns. In 1707, we had the union of the Parliaments. The kingdom of Scotland and the kingdom of England ceased to exist in 1707 because the United Kingdom was created. Therefore, it is illiterate as well as misleading to suggest that there would still be a United Kingdom. If Scotland were to leave the United Kingdom, the United Kingdom would cease to exist. Whether or not the monarch went on to become the head of Scotland as head of state, the relationship would be similar to that enjoyed by Canada and Australia, but it would certainly not mean that the United Kingdom continues. For many people this may seem a kind of historical fact, but it is very important that we understand this, particularly when we have people in high office who seem determined to mislead people. I repeat that if Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, there will be no United Kingdom. I do not know what a kingdom represented by England, Ireland and Wales would be called.”
link to publications.parliament.uk
So basically speaking Lord Forsyth thinks you’re illiterate and misleading.
This was typed:
“Prince Charles is Prince of Wales which is a Principality rather than just being part of the Kingdom of England…”
A bucket of propaganda I’m afraid. From the link below:
“Yes, Wales is country and not a Principality. Although Wales shares a border with England and is part of Great Britain, Wales is a country in its own right.
Wales was officially recognised as a country in December 2011 by the influential International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO) – but it hasn’t really been a Principality for hundreds of years.
Despite the relatively recent recognition of Wales as a country, even though it has its own National Assembly, anthem, language and our own rugby and football teams, it hasn’t been a Principality since the 16th century.
The change by ISO came after the institute referred to Wales as a Principality in a newsletter, prompting Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood AM to launch a campaign for the status to be changed.”
link to walesonline.co.uk
HYUFD
No Westminster is only sovereign over England and Wales the people of Scotland are sovereign over Scotland.
You argue from the perspective of how the UK establishment wants the UKs constitution to be not how it actually is.
I wonder why?
HYUFD
You’re deliberately ignoring the fact that the records you refer to is data measuring numbers who claim unemployment benefits not actual numbers of people unemployed.
I wonder why?
HYUFD
In what yooniverse did the Tories hold the balance of power in Hollyrood EVER? Between 2007 and 2011 the SNP could do deals with any and all the parties and they did. They didn’t have to rely on any one party to Govern and they didn’t.
You’re making this crap up as you go along.
I wonder why?
Yesindyref2 If you bothered to read a word I said I did not say the UK would continue if Scotland went independent, the successor state would be called England, Wales and Northern Ireland
Brian Doonthetoon Utter rubbish, of course Wales is a principality as Prince of Wales is the title of Prince Charles and his mother the Queen is the Head of State of Wales.
Leanne Wood is no longer even leader of Plaid Cymru thank goodness, at least the new Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price is not a hard left socialist republican like Wood and has at least a modicum of respect for the Prince of Wales, I did take some pleasure I must admit that Wood could only come third last week in the Plaid Cymru leadership election won by Price
HYUFD
There is no UK constitution because the UK isn’t a unitary State. The UK isn’t a unitary state because the UK Parliament isn’t a unitary Parliament. The UK is a Parliamentary union between unitary states each the equal of the other constitutionally.
You argue from the perspective of the despotic attitude that would see England rule the UK as a unitary state based on the influence gained from having a larger population ratio to the other member states. A bit like Germany overruling the UK in Europe because its bigger.
I wonder why?
The people of Scotland who voted No to independence in 2014, 63% for Unionist parties at GE17 and are set to give the Tories the balance of power in the Scottish Parliament election in 2021 on current polls?
No, the data I refer to is the number of people employed. The fact remains the UK has one of the lowest unemployment levels in Europe, lower than in France and significantly lower than in Spain and Italy not to mention the likes of Greece.
Mike From 2007 to 2011 if the Tories had propped up Labour and the LDs rather than the SNP then Jack McConnell would have been First Minister and not Alex Salmond. The Tories of course were also able to block the prospect of any independence referendum by virtue of holding the balance of power at Holyrood.
When you raise the retirement age to 66 for men and women the employment rate can do little but rise. The fact that many are in low paid insecure jobs or are only working 25 hours a week does wonders to hide unemployment but does little for the tax yield for government to do its day to day business.
Mike I have never argued that, Scotland has MPs at Westminster as well as its own Parliament, Wales and Northern Ireland have MPs at Westminster as well as their own Assemblies.
(Though try and tell Greece that Germany does not ultimately get its own way with other member states given the Greek austerity and debt reduction programme was effectively written for it by Germany).
HYUFD
Adam Price is even more hard line Welsh Nationalist that Leanne Woods. Lolz.
He’s a regular at Scottish Independence marches and looks to the SNP as his inspiration for Wales.
HYUFD
Whether Germany is perceived to get its own way in Europe or not is irrelevant to the fact that it ISNT ENTITLED TO BY CONSIITUTION yet you assert that an England dominated Westminster is CONSTITUTIONALLY entitled to have its own way over everything and everybody within the UK.
I wonder why?
It wouldn’t be the “same parliament” would it now? THAT was elected by a UK General Election which would no longer exist.
And no, the successor state won’t be called EWNI, Scotland would clearly sell it the rights to be called the UK – for a reasonable sum. We’re fine with Scotland 🙂
Which of course gives us the upper hand by a long way in any negotiations.
Mike Adam Price is even prepared to work with the Tories at the Welsh Assembly unlike Wood, of course he is a nationalist that is the definition of a PC leader but he is not a socialist republican unlike Wood
HYUFD
Ok now you’re just posting wilful shite for effect.
The Scottish Government could only be overruled by a JOINT EFFORT of 3 parties no one of them had the power to do it alone so your assertion regarding the Tories having a balance of power is pure unadulterated deliberate bullshite.
No party had the balance of power between 2007 and 2011 it was a minority party rule Governed by consensus on an issue by issue basis.
You’ve been posting wilful shite all day.
I wonder why?
HYUFD
The UK doesn’t have the lowest unemployment records in Europe because the UK doesn’t record the number of people unemployed within the UK it only records the numbers able to qualify for unemployment welfare. A claim continually made more difficult over time in order to cut the numbers that can claim allowing people like you to lie about the consequences.
Mike Utter rubbish, where have I ever said that? Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland all have MPs at Westminster alongside those of England and England does not have its own Parliament while Scotland does and Wales and Northern Ireland have their own Assemblies
No it does not, plus of course 61% of Scottish exports go to the rest of the UK, only a minority of the rUK exports go to Scotland
Mike So yes if the Tories had voted with Labour and the LDs the SNP would have been outvoted, that is what holding the balance of power means!
The UK records the numbers of people in employment end of conversation and on those figures the number of people in employment is the highest since records began.
If you really want to claim a multimillionaire 45 year old not working and ineligible for benefits should be included in the unemployment figures that is up to you
HYUFD
You’re doing it again wilfully posting stupid lies knowing them to be stupid lies. Scotland doesn’t export 61% of its produce to the rUK because there is no MEASUREMENT of internal UK trading because there is NO INTERNAL UK MARKET.
Scottish exports going abroad via England are being measured by people like you as an argument to suggest that there is a UK internal market and somehow there wont be in the case of Independence.
In order to measure exports there has to be border controls where exports are measured in terms of duties paid and customs checks. There are no such measurements between goods transported throughout the UK. That’s how stupid that particular lie is.
The irony is that in order to be able to measure Scottish exports to the rUK Scotland would have to be Independent and impose border controls in order to measure it.
Spare us the wilful horseshite.
“Mike Utter rubbish, where have I ever said that?”
“Mike Westminster is sovereign and can do what it likes,”
Christ you’re even denying the very things you post openly.
HYUFD
How does the UK measure the numbers of people within employment?
Another stupid bare faced lie.
The UK Government produces figures they claim as numbers unemployed but which are in fact measured by the numbers of people who QUALIFY for unemployment welfare. That’s a fact you’re only too familiar with yet are now denying.
Wilful trolling I believe its referred to.
HYUFD
How can the Tories hold the balance of power if they needed the votes of Labour and the Lib Dems to win the vote?
Definitely trolling.
More to the point, the UK has a negative balance of trade: Exports: £331.3bn, Imports: £469.9bn (Year end Q2 2018), and the only positive balance of trade the rUK has is with – Scotland. Figures from 2016 “in 2016 Scotland exported £46.6 billion (63.7%) of goods and services to rUK” whereas “61.7% (£51.3 billion) of Scotland’s imports came from the rest of the UK”
The rUK had in 2016 a positive balance of trade with Scotland of £4.7 billion.
If there’s no-deal, no UKETA until 2030, only WTO if that can be negotiated and WTO still exists when the USA storms out, and with much of the rUK’s trade with the EU at risk, Canada maybe being careful because of its CETA, and the USA saying “Go Trumpety Trump”, it could be the only exports the rUK have would be to iScotland.
Oh.
The statistics are here
61% of Scottish exports go to the rest of the UK, 23% to the rest of the world and 17% to the EU.
link to gov.scot
Given the UK is likely to leave the single market even if it tries for a FTA with the EU that means border controls and some trade barriers between the UK and the EU even if not full tariffs and hence also between a hypothetical independent Scotland and England and Wales.
If you think UK-EU negotiations are tough wait and see what negotiations between an England and Wales government and a Scottish government would be like!
Westminster is of course sovereign and can do what it likes, that does not make it an English only Parliament
Yet again you are absurdly disputing statistics by claiming multimillionaires who are not in work but of working age and cannot claim benefits should be included in unemployment statistics
Added to which of course, Scotland has a postive balance of trade, and the only other “region” of the UK that does is Northern Ireland. England’s negative balance of trade is truly massive, £133 billion!!!
link to uktradeinfo.com
Double Oh!
As I said had the Tories voted for a Labour and LD executive in 2007 rather than an SNP administration then Jack McConnell would have become First Minister.
In the event of the SNP being opposed by Labour and the LDs on a vote the Tories would hold the balance of power
Bob Mack @ 11.39 am Well said.
Dr Moore, a heartfelt and very clear message to Labour in Scotland.
Welcome 🙂
(And an interesting indication of the panic your letter has caused can be seen in the number of attempts to divert to another topic =)Fear not! We’re wise to it!)
63% ie the majority of Scottish exports as you state on your own admission go to the rest of the UK.
£51.3 billion of rest of the UK exports go to Scotland ie less than 20% of the $412 billion value of total UK exports.
link to en.wikipedia.org
Even with tariffs on UK exports to the EU as well as the rest of the world that would not stop exports there even if they declined as UK exports became more expensive.
Scotland only has a positive balance of trade because of exports to the rest of the UK and particularly England if tariffs hit those and they declined rapidly so would Scotland’s balance of trade
Some background info about the song Grace that Rod Stewart sang and was banned by the BBC.
It was popularised in 2016 by the Green Brigade, and came to prominence at the Celtic 3-3 match v Man City at home in Sep 2016.
It was written by Sean And Frank O’Meara in 1985.
Who Sang It ?
Jim McCann, who often played with The Dubliners had the most success with it,
It was also sung by The Wolfe Tones, John McDermott, Barleycorn, and Anthony Kearns to name but a few singers.
Hi HYUFD at 7:26 pm.
You typed,
“Brian Doonthetoon Utter rubbish, of course Wales is a principality as Prince of Wales is the title of Prince Charles…”
OK, you can assert your cognitive dissonance to your heart’s content but I would tend to believe the International Standards Organisation, rather than your assertions/beliefs.
I would have thought that as Wales isn’t a principality, the title “Prince of Wales” is one of your many cherished ceremonial titles?
Most global trade is conducted on WTO terms, even if Trump pulled out of it (unlikely as Congress would block that especially with a Democratic majority likely in November) a new global agreement would replace it instead
HYUFD
Import and export values are measured through customs checks excise duties and border controls none of which exist in terms of internal UK trading or the transportation of goods within the UK. Those figures are UK Government figures derived by the Scotland office and are as reliable as every other UK Gov derived figure and stat. The fact that there is no way to measure internal trading movement of goods kind of gives that away.
You’re spewing UK Gov propaganda lying wilfully and stupidly because you’re trolling.
HYUFD
You keep repeating the same shite over knowing its still shite no matter how often you repeat it because you’re trolling.
A party that holds the balance of power does so by not having to rely on the votes of other parties to exercise that balance.
HYUFD
Why don’t you explain how goods leaving or entering Scotland to and from England are measured in terms of exports and imports? Who measures them and from where?
HYUFD
You claiming sovereignty for Westminster doesn’t make it reality me pointing out the reality that the people of Scotland hold sovereignty over Parliament affirms the existing reality.
Not that you care because you’re trolling.
HYUFD
How long does it take to make trade arrangements within the WTO do you think? Days? Weeks Months? or Years?
I rest my case 🙂
HYUFD
“Yet again you are absurdly disputing statistics by claiming multimillionaires who are not in work but of working age and cannot claim benefits should be included in unemployment statistics”
No that’s a piece of wilful stupidity you made up because you wont acknowledge the truth.
The UK Government doesn’t measure unemployment or employment as you claim knowing it to be a lie. You know they ONLY measure employment in terms of numbers claiming employment welfare.
It would be impossible for any Government anywhere to measure employment in terms of numbers employed because there is no way to correlate data that measures the numbers.
No Government can measure the unemployed who don’t claim benefits or welfare either because there is no way to correlate data on the numbers.
You know this and continue to wilfully lie over it because you’re trolling.
@Mike. I’m sure he’ll make some up as he goes along. Meanwhile in official terms:
“The ESS estimates only capture the first point of export. This means if a good is exported to a company in the rest of the UK and that company then exports it somewhere else, ESS will only capture the export to the rest of the UK.”
and
“For some companies operating in Scotland, their products are feeding into a global supply chain. For example, they may sell a good to a company in England who subsequently incorporate it into a product which is exported internationally. In such a situation, only the sale from the Scottish company to their customer in England would be counted as a Scottish export. It would be recorded as a Scottish export to the rest of the UK.”
and
“ESS is the only official source of Scottish exports which includes estimates for both goods and services.”
and
“The HMRC Regional Trade Statistics (RTS) are published on a quarterly basis. This is a National Statistics publication and provides a breakdown of the flows of imports and exports between regions and countries of the UK and other countries. RTS includes trade of goods only. It excludes trade in services (e.g. banking, tourism) and intangibles (e.g. financial investments or transfers).”
and
“There are no equivalent UK or English figures to ESS. Comparisons can be made using HMRC RTS but, as mentioned above, this will only include exports of goods and also excludes trade within the UK.”
and
“There are no statistics on the total value of imports to Scotland on a comparable basis to ESS.”
and
“In National Accounts terms, Scotland is a region of the UK and there is no legal requirement for companies to report financial information at a sub-UK level.”
There’s a blowhard in our midst and it ain’t me or thee (or Brian!).
Most global trade is conducted on WTO terms,
Not sure that this is the case. WTO is a fallback. Over the years most countries have built up a network of trade agreements. Trump is causing waves by binning agreements and adding tariffs in an isolationist move that is alarming many.
Yesindyref2
ESS themselves clarify that they don’t measure imports or exports in and out of Scotland to and from the rUK they ESTIMATE with no means of gauging accuracy potential import and export figures.
The ESS OPENLY ADMITS to inaccurate data measurements.
link to statisticsauthority.gov.uk
The fact is NOBODY actually measures imports and exports internally within the UK because that would involve border controls.
What we get instead is estimated figure derived from made up guess work. It allows any fanny with a political agenda to claim anything in terms of imports and exports and you don’t get bigger fannies willing to lie more often then here in the UK regarding anything to do with Scotland.
“If you think UK-EU negotiations are tough wait and see what negotiations between an England and Wales government and a Scottish government would be like!” says @HYUFD at 8:54 pm
Who will your ‘England and Wales Government’ be proposing to buy it’s energy from and under what tariff regime?
Tough negotiations indeed, just not the way you think.
The Scottish export figures come from the Scottish government, you clearly have no alternative figures of your own.
On the balance of power of course the Tories would hold it just as much as the DUP do at Westminster, after all if the DUP and the other parties combined they would have more than the Tories.
You could not care what the people of Scotland think, you could not care they voted 55% against independence in 2014 and you could not care they voted 63% for Unionist parties in 2017, so what.
The UK is already in the WTO, Scotland is not.
You continue to pathetically dismiss unemployment and employment figures on the basis they do not include a tiny fraction of millionaires who do not work and are ineligible for benefits.
The International Standards Organisation can say whatever it goddamn likes that does not change the fact Queen Elizabeth IInd is the Head of State of Wales and it is a Principality headed by her son Prince Charles
HandandShrimp Most global trade is done under WTO terms, the fact there may be additional agreements done alongside that does not change that
Most English and Welsh energy comes from domestic sources, most Scottish exports go to England and Wales
Yesindyref2
“More to the point, the UK has a negative balance of trade: Exports: £331.3bn, Imports: £469.9bn (Year end Q2 2018), and the only positive balance of trade the rUK has is with – Scotland. Figures from 2016 “in 2016 Scotland exported £46.6 billion (63.7%) of goods and services to rUK” whereas “61.7% (£51.3 billion) of Scotland’s imports came from the rest of the UK””
That apparent anomaly in England’s trade balance performance with Scotland compared to its more normal performance, i.e. large deficit, with everybody else is explained by England being Scotland’s ‘Rotterdam Effect’ writ very large.
The Rotterdam Effect is the seemingly and actually ludicrously high trade the UK enjoy’s with The Netherlands.
It is not real country to country trade, because Rotterdam being the main conduit for trade with Europe and all points East is a trade logistical distortion.
Brexiteers complained about it often, suggesting that it was not a true measure of trade with rEU because a lot of the goods through that conduit went furth of the EU and vice versa.
In Scotland’s case, this effect, but using England as the conduit, is greatly amplified.
Not only is England a far greater natural logistical conduit for Scottish exports and imports from beyond Europe, in Scotland’s case, exports to and from Europe, in a Scotland/England context, is also a falsely included factor. That is, Scottish exports and imports from Europe through the English conduit should not be counted as exports and imports to England.
A massive distortion one might term ‘The Rotherham Factor’.
“The UK is already in the WTO, Scotland is not”
Let’s add some to that:
The UK is already in NATO, Scotland is not
The UK is already on the Security Council, Scotland is not
The UK already has a credit rating, Scotland does not
The UK already has treaties and memberships, Scotland dies not
and so on.
BUT the rUK has nothing.
“If you think UK-EU negotiations are tough wait and see what negotiations between an England and Wales government and a Scottish government would be like!”
When the UK leaves the EU, the EU continues to exist.
When Scotland leaves the UK, the UK CEASES to exist.
Now you begin to see why Scotland has the upper hand in any negotiations. If you think the EU is being tough on the UK, you’ll be quivering in your slippers by the time Scotland has finished. Strength and right is on our side – if the rUK wants to be the cUK and not cuckolded completely. Cukoo! It must be May already …
@Chick
The data available does contain a lot of guesswork as internal data isn”t kept at a “region” level. Scotland has no customs of our own, no paperwork of our own, it’s all at UK level. As the ScotGov say “The ESS estimates only capture the first point of export.”. Even that old whisky one is problematic, much whisky is sent down in casks or tanks still in bond, to be bottled in England. But who gets the attribution, the distillery back on Islay, or Burlington Bertie (Bottling) in, well, Essex strangely enough!
OK @HYUFD says 30 September, 2018 at 10:34 pm
“Most English and Welsh energy comes from domestic sources, most Scottish exports go to England and Wales”
Now finish that thought.
Who will your ‘England and Wales Government’ be proposing to buy it’s energy from and under what tariff regime?
How much would it raise in revenue for an Independent Scotlands Exchequer?
You will not hear about this on the BBC.
Also heard Ruth getting another soft ride on the BBC this morning.
Still no word of the Russian money (pass the Pizza).
The BBC are a real joke
HYUFD is just another paid to troll Britnat spouting out all the misleading propaganda crap that you could read in the Mail and Telegraph.
If you really want to do some brain damage to yourself read the Telegraph and Mail. HYUFD is just wasting your time.
“HYUFD is just wasting your time”
He’s useful for practice and sharpening the wits in a friendly environment.
The UK exports about 45% of its exports to the EU ie less than half albeit significant, Scotland though sends over 60%, a clear majority, of its exports to the rUK
Still no reply @HYUFD says, so I’ll ask you again (with some figures):
Who will your ‘England and Wales Government’ be proposing to buy it’s energy from and under what tariff regime?
Scotland is a net exporter of electricity.
England imports electricity from Scotland and from continental Europe (via the France and Netherlands interconnectors)
What would WTO tariff in the event of NO-DEAL be to UK for this Continental European electricity?
Northern Ireland also imports electricity from Scotland via the Moyle interconnector.
In 2010, Scotland exported 20.6 per cent of the electricity generated there to consumers elsewhere in the UK (this rose to 26.1 per cent in 2011).
Transfers from Scotland to England rose by 45 per cent between 2010 and 2011, to a new record high, as Scottish generation increased and consumption fell.
In 2016 Scotland generated its electricity by:
3.9% from Coal
6.8% from Gas
42.9% from Renewables
42.9% from Nuclear
3.5% from Oil & Other
In 2016 England generated its electricity by:
8.0% from Coal
45.0% from Gas
21.5% from Renewables
23.1% from Nuclear
2.2% from Oil & Other
How much would it raise in revenue for an Independent Scotlands Exchequer?
At least as much as the revenue on tariffs from Scottish goods exported to England and Wales in a WTO No Deal scenario given 62% of Scottish exports go to England and Wales.
However as May is now proposing the UK stays in a Customs Union to avoid No Deal this all now looks hypothetical anyway and there will be a Deal of some form
With HYUFD concentrating on Scottish exports to England and Wales (ingoring Northern Ireland same as most of his party), it seems he thinks that Independent Scotland will REMAIN in the EU, with no break. Because otherwise his argument is totally irrelevant.
So what we see is a contradictory split in the Unionist argument. They have to make a choice:
1). iScotland will remain in the EU when the rUK leaves and face WTO tariffs with the rUK, or whatever tariffs are in whatever deal the UK makes with the EU. In which case we remain in the Single Market and Customs Union for our EU trade, and continue with all the other trade deals the EU has negotiated (there are many).
2). Independent Scotland will leave the EU with the rest of the UK and continue trading with the rUK just as now.
It’s make your mind up time, Unionist activists! You can’t have Theresa May’s cake and eat it.
Or of course option 3.
3). iScotland is in EFTA and the EEA. EFTA members are Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, and EFTA has for instance its own deal with Canada way back in 2009, nothing to do with the (provisional) CETA the EU has from 2017. So EFTA can also have its own deal with the rUK, whatever the rUK does with the EU. Scotland therefore gets both – the best of both worlds!
i) A hypothetical independent Scotland faces tariffs on exports to rUK where most of its exports go in the event of No Deal Brexit or ultra hard Brexit.
ii) The UK stays in the SM and CU or agrees a significant FTA Deal in the transition period in which case Scotland is highly unlikely to vote for independence anyway according to polling and will remain in the UK.
iii) The UK may well ultimately end up in EFTA anyway
iScotlands is going to happen within the next 24 Months @HYFUD
When it does:
iScotlands alleged exports to UK will decrease when our exports to Europe and beyond leave from Scottish ports and airports (rather than count as exports to rUK via the reverse Rotterdam effect)
iScotlands Exchequer will then get 100% of the tax receipts/VAT etc. on these exports
National Grid Connection Charges will cease on the electricity exported from an iScotland and the Scottish Exchequer will get paid the going rate rather than charged to export it.
iScotlands Exchequer will also get the tax receipts for exports of oil and gas which is currently either counted as ExRegio (rather than Scottish) or allowed to be extracted by the E&P Majors who are actually getting tax rebates rather than paying correct tax (compare Norwegian tax receipts for extraction vs UK when you consider the cost to produce are broadly similar at $15/$20 a barrel).
Your ‘England Wales Government’ will then be left without it’s Northern cash cow (and it’s electricity) but will however be left with £2 Trillion (& rising National debt), a Neo-Fascist Right Wing Government and a pissed off electorate.
I shall not mourn the passing of your ‘precious Union’
Well said, Dr. Moore. A feeling that incorporates a lot of former Labour-voting folk.
When it comes to the “constitution” of the UK, there is no difference between the Labour and Tory parties in Scotland any more. Our country and people are secondary to the “greater good” of the UK, even when that means our country and people being dragged into a situation we have opposed without as much as a whimper from our Labour and Tory “representatives” whose constituents voted to Remain in the EU.
Now the official branches of the Labour and Tory parties in Scotland have decided that the people of Scotland should have no say on our future and on any alternative to leaving the EU. The only alternative being independence from the UK.
A very sad situation all round but one that will truly finish the Labour party in Scotland. Scottish elections are largely decided on the streets, in local communities, and despite media priorities, the Labour party in Scotland, with precious few activists left, have not yet reached its gutter.
I am not a Labour person and haven’t been for a long time. They disenfranchised me a long time ago as an option.
Scotland will not be independent within 24 months.
Even in the event of a hypothetical independent Scotland most of its exports would still go to England and Wales regardless of any supposed ‘Rotterdam effect’ on which the English and Welsh government could also gain tax receipts. The real cash cow in the UK is London and its surrounding commuter belt, that is the region of the UK with by far the highest gdp per capita and with the highest percentage contribution in taxes to the UK exchequer relative to what it receives in public spending
HYUFD away and put on a pair of nappies. Your crap is stinking out Wings.