It’s just a bit of fun
As we’ve been poring over old opinion polls today, we thought we may as well share this with you. We make no suggestions that it proves anything about anything, it’s just fascinating. (It is to us, anyway, because the alternative is Strictly Come Dancing.)
It’s hopefully pretty self-explanatory. It charts the SNP’s lead (or, for much of the time, otherwise) in Holyrood opinion polling in the 16 months leading up to the 2011 Scottish election. And it’s interesting to ponder the timing of some of its peaks and troughs.
The first thing to note is that there was, as far as we can gather, no polling conducted at all between 26 March and 9 August in 2010, yet in that time the SNP plunged from a 3-point lead to a 14-point deficit. In between, of course, the Tory-Lib Dem coalition took power at Westminster.
We can’t think of any other major political events of that summer to explain the dramatic 17-point collapse in support – the controversial release of Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, for example, had taken place in August 2009. The shelving of the original referendum bill was still a couple of months away, as was Ed Miliband’s election as Labour leader, and Iain Gray was well into his own term in Scotland.
It was a lead Labour would hold (with the exception of a single poll putting the SNP one point ahead, surrounded by others giving Labour double-digit leads) right up until the start of April, after which the SNP were never behind again. But why? What happened in summer 2010 to put Labour in front, and what caused that lead to collapse and the SNP to turn it into a landslide victory in just four weeks?
That’s not a rhetorical question, incidentally. We don’t know. Our best guess is that David Cameron becoming Prime Minister firmed up the Labour support for a while, but as the Scottish election loomed the prospect of Gray’s team actually being in control of anything sobered voters up.
And we couldn’t help but notice that the SNP’s climb started almost exactly nine months before the Holyrood polling day – the same distance we are from the referendum now. A referendum isn’t an election, and SNP votes don’t directly tally to Yes votes, and as we said at the start we’re not for a moment suggesting the graph represents any sort of prediction.
It is, nevertheless, a striking illustration of how dramatically things can change in that space of time, with no obvious major events to explain them. What changed in Scottish politics from August 2010 to May 2011? Not much that we can think of. But faced with the prospect of an unattractive future, the Scottish people chose, almost at the last minute, to throw in their lot with Alex Salmond.
We’re just going to leave that one there.
I’m sure Iain Gray’s subway gaffe had some effect.
“I’m sure Iain Gray’s subway gaffe had some effect.”
Maybe. In the poll before it they were neck and neck, but 11 days after Gray did his runner the SNP were still only three points in front. It was a few more days until their lead started to shoot up.
Citizen journalism and this of course.
link to youtube.com
Maybe most of the pollsters were wrong then and they may very well be wrong now. I certainly am very suspicious of scottish opinionpolls.
The Subway gaffe was during the campaign. SNP didn’t really campaign in the General Election, and were being written off because Labour won back 2 seats lost in by elections. Typically, the political establishment failed to notice that ALL of Scotland’s seats went back to the 2005 holder. God forgive me, I even voted Labour; I think we knew it was probable the Tories would do well and voted tactically.
Incredibly, as I said on another thread, Labour took this as a mandate to come here in 2011 for the Holyrood election and tell us ONLY they could defeat the Tories – failing to notice the Tories were long since defeated in Scotland, and that Scots voted differently in Holyrood compared to Westminster. I still can’t work out if the whole party didn’t know this, or just the important London people, and Iain Gray was too low on the totem poll to put them right.
Since Devolution, it had become obvious that Scottish Labour wouldn’t do anything out of line with London Labour; and would put their loyalty to London Labour before the Scottish people; as a result, I had become less inclined to vote for them. Saying that, my MSP until I moved house in 2007, was Malcolm Chisholm, who I view as a man of integrity who has certainly put his principles before his career, so I was happy with him as my MSP.
I think it says something that Malcolm is the only Labour MSP in Edinburgh to retain his constituency seat.
Again, I think Labour polled more or less the same number of votes in 2011 as in 2007; however, the SNP vote went up by the same amount as the LibDem vote went down.
(BTW: I’ve never been an SNP member; in fact, I’ve been pleasantly surprised by them in office. I often end up defending them because the attacks are so outrageous, so people assume I’m in the Party).
Have been trying to find the footage of Jeremy Paxman at a Scottish racecourse, perhaps the week before the 2011 elections – he was at the Tote at Ayr, Hamilton, wherever (but definitely in Scotland) bantering with the bookies, and I’m sure some of them were predicting an SNP victory, or were offering odds which had Paxman’s eyebrows doing overtime.
Anyone know what I’m on about? Or better still, where that clip can be found?
Part of it, I think, is that people don’t/won’t admit to being snp or Indy supporters. I was told by a definite yes voter recently they always say ‘don’t know’ when asked as they find pro-union people too quick to ‘jump down your throat’ when you say your a yes voter. Surely they can’t be the only one to feel this way.
We need a lot more ‘Fun’ like this as the ‘Independent’ Long time Labour Adviser and Psephologist, Prof. John Curtice is hired by BBC ‘Scotland,’ with nauseating regularity, to inform the Great Unwashed how accurate and dependable the Foreign Owned Polling Organizations are.
Now that is Funny!
Seems this happens quite a lot:
link to scottishaffairs.org
@cynicalHighlander-
Thanks for posting that clip. Priceless.
Iain Gray’s pish about his acts of overseas derring-do is almost as pathetic as the final shot, where wee Mags Curran has to run to keep up with her Glorious Leader. Mind you, that was back in the day, before she got within sniffing distance of Labour’s real alpha-male, The Miliband.
Also on that link this is quite interesting:
“NATIONAL IDENTITY
In terms of national identity, the findings of the ICM September poll were broadly in line with previous ones on the issue. Twenty nine percent said they were Scottish not British, 30% more Scottish than British, 28% equally Scottish and British, 2% more British than Scottish, and 8% British not Scottish. The May/June ICM poll repeated the question, and the results were comparable, with 26% saying they were Scottish not British, 33% more Scottish than British, 26% equally Scottish and British, with 5% more British than Scottish, and 7% that they were British not Scottish. Those forefronting Scottishness were young people, and skilled manual workers. As before, there is no simple relationship between voting intention and national identity, with only 37% of SNP voters saying they considered themselves Scottish not British, and the largest number – 41% – that they were more Scottish than British.”
Yet only 14 years later the census shows that 62% of Scots feel Scottish not British.
The big leap for the SNP came in the first poll after this:
link to youtube.com
To try to understand, you need to look long term.
At least 16 years. Ideally 70.
A referendum isn’t an election
It’s not a standard referendum either, it’s an national independence one.
A few weeks ago a very nice gentleman fro Yes Helensburgh dropped off a pre ordered Yes T shirt. We were discussing polls and he volunterred that he wouldn’t be surprised if the ‘Fuck it’ factor came into play. He explained that the reported high percentage of DK’s could well opt for the FIF and vote yes if their current comfort zone was constantly being eroded and threatened.
My take on the Labour poll lead was that a section of the population, who had largely given up on new labour and were leaning to the SNP by 2009 (who were polling 40% then), gave the feeble 50 one last shot out of desperation in 2010.
It failed.
They then looked at Scottish Labour and thought ‘What’s the point’. The SNP were much more aligned to what they wanted and competent. But voting for them could be a big step; it could end the UK. They then swallowed hard and went with it.
This is what I keep saying. Polls only tell a little part of the story. You need to dig deep to get all the pieces.
Economy, currency, democracy, Europe, left, right… all these things tend to balance each other out.
Scotland will vote yes simply because it’s Scottish.
It’s the reason nations exist; a group of people in an area of land agree ‘We are a nation’ for whatever historical social and geographical reasons.
52% Yes in 1979 reflected how British Scotland still felt then. 74% Yes in 1997 reflected how all that had changed. It’s got even more Scottish since then.
Could it be possible that the polls are being manipulated to give people the impression that no is going to win and win well in order to sway opinion to no.Folk do love to be on the winning side.Don’t think it’s working in these days of social media etc.
I think these poll figures show a couple of things. Firstly, the fickleness of the floating vote, and secondly, they expose weaknesses in the methods of polling companies.
What I found quite amusing was that after the SNP landslide in 2011, some pundits were bemoaning the electorate for voting “wrong” because the polls showed that Labour should’ve won. Talk about tail wagging the dog! 😀
I take all polls with a pinch of salt. Our very own “part-time psephologist” Scottish_Skier has been explaining problems with sample weighing and sampling methodologies. Many polls don’t capture the “shy” yes vote. Pollees tell fibs to pollsters all the time.
The only poll that matters is on 18.9.2014 and I have confidence that the majority of Scots will see beyound all the spin and scaremongering and vote YES.
As to Iain Gray, this is my favourite clip of the Subway incident. 😉
Ian Brotherhood
It took me a wee while to find it.
You have the presenters mixed up. It was not Jeremy Paxman but Michael Portillo.
this is the only Newsnight programme in April 2011 I could see that has Paxman.
It was Labours election to lose, and they did. I think a lot of people wanted to vote labour but they proved themselves unelectable.
the “now that the Tories are back” thing had to be abandoned and then the campaign relaunched.
they had no policies apart from “two years for anyone caught carrying a blade” which seemed to be aimed at a section of the electorate in Glasgows east end and completely irrelevant to the majority of the country (And the policy actually fell apart under scrutiny)
the rest of their manifesto they stole from the SNP – council txt freeze etc
and of course their other cunning plan that worked so well for them in 2007 – “if you vote SNP then Alex Salmond will be FM”
like you said, this isn’t an election but so far the No campaign seem to be employing the same tactics – “labour can save us from the Tories”, “We hate alex Salmond” and so far no vision for the future post 18/09/2014.
my hope is that like in 2011, when the time comes and people see the No campaign have absolutely nothing to offer, that they’ll vote the other way (even if they had wanted to vote No)
… Just had a thought and it’s off topic but BT try to sell us the whole “labour will be the next UK government” thing despite the fact that BT are supposed to be cross party, it would be amusing for someone to ask david Cameron or Ruthie what they think of that.
@Marcia –
You are a star.
I really must lay off that Lambrini…starting tomorrow.
Cheers!
Portillo’s closing line to that excellent piece:
‘You don’t often make money betting against Alex Salmond.’
O/T – there’s a suggestion/invitation on Quarantine re possible WoS Weegie gig – please have a swatch.
It would be interesting to see the polling for the other ‘Scottish’ parties over the same time frame
Sorry for going O/T here but found a link to this in the Hootsmon over on Twitter and thought it was an interesting article seeing as the M.O.D. put the kibosh into oil exploration off the West coast back in 1984.
link to archive.is
I just hope the link works, I’ve never used the archive thingy before. :P:
Very interesting reading.
Although a referendum is different to an election, but I’ve been looking back at these polls and can see the similarity too. Also, although from the likes of YouGov and the ones who constantly have a low Yes vote – their polling now is even showing how weak the No ‘lead’ is. 43% No in the last one, although 29% Yes.
People are becoming engaged and it’s coming round. I was meeting up with some friends/family yesterday for pre-Christmas blethers, grub and a few drinks. The referendum came up. It’s very interesting to see the tone of discussion. 2-3 years ago, even less – many would have been absolute No, but people are engaging – the No vote barring I’d say a 25% core Unionist vote of No, is very, very soft.
I also love how various Unionists, blogs, or MPs etc love to write off Panelbase polls as being ‘Nat'(I hate that word thanks to Jenny Hjull, and her hubby) friendly – yet they were the closest in predicting the actual SNP 2011 election result.
Lots and lots to be positive about folks. Look at the debates and hustings around unis, colleges – when presented with an argument for Yes and No. Yes win them. There will be more of these in 2014. Mainstream debates on STV and BBC at normal viewing hours. People who possibly have no or little interest will watch these and just see how weak the message for the Union is.
It’s going to be difficult, no doubt at all, but thank you to the internet for making our job, just a little bit more easier to get round the monster of the MSM. The printed press are on their knees. Rev’s numbers are showing more and more people are coming here and other sites for information.
I’m looking forward to the next few weeks and being home meeting pals fae school, uni and seeing how/what position they are at now. Had a straw poll last year out of the 12 of us at 8 Yes, 4 No and see if any have moved.
Marcia
Thanks for the link. Excellent stuff and I enjoyed looking back on it again.
Just in case no one thought Tories can change their heart and follow the yellow brick road to Scottish Independence then here is something that might just brighten up your heart. :P:
link to archive.is
Just in case no one thought Tories can change their heart and follow the yellow brick road to Scottish Independence
As noted.
Scotland will vote yes simply because it’s Scottish.
Sunday Herald tomorrow;
link to twitpic.com
Salmond: Spain is working with UK to thwart a Yes vote
No vote donors caught up in wind farm payments row
In our Lockerbie 25th anniversary special: Campaigner Swire says pray for Megrahi’s family … US, UK and Libya vow to uncover the truth …
@ arbroath
You beat me there: I was just about to post that link. It’s another straw in the wind. But what gives this straw a bit of added weight is that the Scotsman chose to publicise Nick Johnston’s conversion. As a former MSP who was only in Holyrood for two years, he himself is maybe not much of a scalp for the Yes campaign, but what is left of the Scotsman readership must contain a high proportion of Tory voters. So what is the Scotsman playing at, you may ask, given its track record?
It may be no coincidence that this piece appears hard on the heels of the launch of Wealthy Nation….a right-of-centre pro-Indy group. Now I start from a position of being innately sceptical about any new pro-Indy grouping, especially a rightish one, but I note that among its supporters are Laurie Clark, the guy who gave Cameron two fingers at his dinner for fundraisers, plus Peter de Vink, who should need no introduction, and several other well-reputed business people and economists.
So maybe, just maybe, the Scotsman is sucking its teeth and wondering whether it shouldn’t have a slighty firmer foot in the pro-Indy camp. By my entirely non-scientific count, the number of pro-indy articles is increasing. There’s probably a lot of argument going on in the broom cupboard they now use for editiorial conferences – the news desk still taking its feed from BT press releases, and features pushing for more rounded comment. And the managing editor will be sucking his pencil, looking at the advertsising revenue, and wondering whether there’s a growing untapped source of money….
Stu asks ” What changed in Scottish politics from August 2010 to May 2011? ”
I think a lot of folk became really scunnered by the almost gleeful belligerent opposition shown at every turn by the Lab/Lib/Con to everything the SNP were proposing, particularly the ‘minimum pricing’ policy. Scots know there’s a problem with alcohol and the SNP’s attempt to do something about it was in the news and certainly a talking point among my friends and acquaintances. The opposition’s attitude was seen by them as appalling and I was very aware of a feeling of exasperation at that time swiftly followed by resentment, particularly as a “sunset clause” was offered as a compromise. A lot of folk maybe thought that was the last straw.
Arbroath 1320,thanks for posting that link there,I thought it funny the only comment below the piece warns of us becoming South Sudan lol.We all have a part to play in the refreshed,new Scotland.
O/T
Speaking of Wealthy Nation, I found this piece by Hong-Kong based Jim Walker to be a refreshing and original take on the currency issue.
link to wealthynation.org
I admit that I have seen ever so slightly more articles in the likes of the Hootsmon and Herald recently that are at least even handed in their approach to the subject of what happens after Independence.
Perhaps the editorial team at the Hootsmon are ever so slowly waking up to the prospect that they may no longer be in a job by the time the referendum comes round unless they change their overall tack concerning Scottish Independence.
There again we might just be witnessing a slight glitch in the works and “normal” service will be resumed shortly. 😆
My reading of the switcheroo is it was a who governs Scotland question. We had had the Unionists ganging up on the Trams, the Calman Commission, minimum price and the referendum bill in the SP and we had voted Labour to save Broons bacon at Westminster and we’d got Call me Dave and his faithful hound Nick which was not what Scottish Liberals had voted for either. The mood was very much we need a referendum to get this sorted and if it takes SNP majority to do then so be it. I’m sure there was polling showing about 72% in favour of a referendum.
We should also remember that some of the SNP gains were by pretty slim majorities and if they’d missed the list would not have made up.
Elizabeth, regarding the minimum price debate, I came across this youtube clip tonight where Alex Salmond clearly beats Paxo by two falls and a submission.
Alex Salmond makes light work of Paxo – Newsnight UK 19/04/11
@msean
You beat me to it 🙁
Excellent article thanks to Arbroath 1320.
Like msean said earlier the single comment in the archive copy is so pathetic you can only laugh. 😆
Here it is again.
link to archive.is
Your assumptions that the Scottish electorate took one look at the Labourite numpties who went on to produce the Monty Python election we all witnessed is correct. But it was predictable from December 2010; Labour had wandered back up the polls via as you say, a Tory government being elected and the Megrahi release charging the airwaves. In the end, Labour’s ass was most definitely saved from complete annihilation because if they hadn’t radically changed their policies to adopt SNP policies then they would have been destroyed. They had created a Labourite ‘high council tax’ etc. wish list to further their own aims and it was looking real good but alas Jim Murphy (I believe) stepped in and told them to change their policies – they did sadly and saved their political fortunes.
The SNP knew this too and continued with their campaign.
Yes, they hadn’t actually bothered with a manifesto for Hollyrood 2011 and had to do their famous fag-packet manifesto in which they asserted that, ‘Scottish Labour will abolish Scottish Labour’ at an election relaunch (the second relaunch).
The Subway nonsense was just fun and gave us a laugh but it was the ridiculous policy off the cuff, all of which was uncosted, We had Richard ‘special’ Baker using some incorrect paragraphs in newspapers to justify his knife crime NHS costs of £500 million – utter tripe and was shown to be tripe within days by Labour people. We had the immediate prison term for people with knives and the ill-thought out effects upon prison overcrowding and costs.
The fact that they lost only the number of seats they did is a miracle.!!!!!!
So… the moral of the story is indeed that people will look in detail at the independence proposition in the weeks before the vote and decide then – it will be very close whatever way it goes.
@Marcia
Loved the link, Portillo always comes across to me at least as reasonable. Bit like Ted Heath.
@Arbroath 1320
Another good link, I just hope the dam bursts and those of all political persuasions finally speak their mind and tell the truth for a change.
On the timing question I read the graph as saying we need a Wings Poll in April asking people what they think the referendum is about eg
Alex Salmond vanity project (nobody from Woking answers this one)
The chance to build a better Scotland
getting away from yah boo Westminster politics
doing our own thing
committing economic suicide etc.
I reckon it takes about 5 months for people to wake up to the fact that they are going to have to answer a question in 5 months time. Doesn’t matter if they are school kid, student, up for promotion, having a baby, 5 months is panic time
Even more astonishingly, SoS runs the Nick Johnston story on front page, and links it to Wealthy Nation:
link to twitter.com
Surely it couldn’t be the case that the Hootsmon and SoS were waiting for a group of ex-Tories to come out in favour in order to have someone ‘respectable’ to support? No…that’s taking it too far….is it?
I’ve now read through most of the Wealthy Nation articles. Some of them are ingredients for a fruitcake, others not. – But if this group is going to emerge as the post-indy right-of-centre party, it’s going to need a seriously enhanced dose of realism in its thinking, especially over welfare. Go and take a look and see what you think.
link to wealthynation.org
I wish people would stop using welfare. It is social security.
If you make sure we dont starve we wont riot in the streets, basically.
Welfare is the lady of the manor taking cup cakes to poor widows if the weather is fine. That may be what the Tories see but they’d better pay attention to the second half of the social security bargain.
Kininvie
Fruitcake or not, they are more brush strokes on the Independence canvas and it shows that people from all over the spectrum are relishing the prospect of life in an Independent nation.
More power to them!
Sorry I’m going O/T again but anyone remember the fantastic display of how we are better together defence speaking in December 2011?
Well not to worry folks because guess what, it is happening AGAIN!
Yup 2 years after the fiasco of December 2011 we are watching a re-enactment of the same scenario. The only difference this time appears to be the possibility that the UK naval ship may actually be in the area, off the Moray Firth, this time. Don’t worry though folks the ship in question still had to sail all the way up from the English SOUTH coast!!!
link to archive.is
I have a number of questions:
1) have Westminster re-commissioned the de-commissioned H.M.S. York…….AGAIN?
2) when they say the Royal Navy is shadowing the Russian fleet are they referring to the re-commissioned H.M.S. York or the fleet of Scottish fishermen who carried out such a sterling job the last time?
3) does Westminster actually have a ship available to carry out this shadow work without re-commissioning H.M.S. York?
Maybe the election tv debates had an influence on opinion poll results.
I only mention this as my recollection of one tv debate in particular is of Elmer making a pillock of himself, promising the audience he had a secret plan to create jobs in Scotland. All people had to do was put their trust in him by giving him their votes, which pretty much sums up Scottish Labour’s delusions, arrogance and their collective reflex-action of taking Scottish voters for granted.
Reference –
During the campaign, the four main party leaders engaged in a series of televised debates, as they had in every previous general election. These key debates were held on 29 March (STV), 1 May (BBC), and 3 May (STV).
link to en.wikipedia.org
Scottish election: Party leaders clash in BBC TV debate
link to bbc.co.uk
@handclapping
Sorry – slip of the keyboard. Or, to be frank, lazy, unthinking use of vocabulary. You are correct, and I shall watch my words in future.
@Seasick Dave
I agree it’s welcome. I was just looking – as I’m sure we all do – as to how the thinking about creating a new country is going to balance out. ‘New paradigm’ is a phrase I hate, but we are going to want to tear up old ways of doing politics and look at ideas which will work – no matter where they come from. Some ideas from libertarianism look OK in that context – others don’t.
I’m glad that a right-of-centre grouping for YES has emerged.
link to wealthynation.org
Business for Scotland has been around for some time but it’s good to see other centre-rightists nailing their colours to the mast for independence.
They’re reasonable people. I might not agree with their ideology and agenda but an independent Scotland needs rightists. Murdo Fraser, who wanted to found a new Scottish conservative not Tory party will be paying attention (in case somebody steals his thunder on 19.9.2014 ;-D )
The truth is that there’s a big conservative (small “c”) vote in Scotland. People who could never vote for the toxic Westminster Tories but are still quite conservative.
The referendum is not about party politics (even though the BBC/MSM try to make it an Alex Salmond megalomania thing) and many Scots see that.
Wealthy Nation will provide an online home for independence-minded conservatives. The mere fact that Wealthy Nation has launched serves to normalise YES in the eye of a wider public.
It’s late, and there’s less whisky in the bottle than there should be, but….
Are we looking at a bit of crafty behind-the-scenes co-ordination here?
1) Wealthy Nation launches
2) Blair Jenkins welcomes it on board almost immediately
3) Scotsman publishes Nick Johnston conversion story 1 day after
4) SoS links Nick Johnston story & Wealthy Nation 2 days after
If these events are not coincidental, it suggests that Yes have got their claws a little deeper into the media than we had assumed. And it’s good timing: Tory households will have something to talk about over the turkey, and BT will be shutting down for Christmas…
BT will be shutting down for Christmas…
I didn’t know it had ever opened up.
I just thought it was a group of grumpy disillusioned unionists kicking a tin can down the street! 😆
Tory households will have something to talk about over the turkey…
All households will have something to talk about over the turkey, plus the New Year’s greetings will have an added potency this year!
Remember, Independence, isn’t just for lefties, its for everyone that lives in Scotland.
Its called democracy and everyone should feel at home with it.
At least these new groups are seeing their future under Edinburgh rule, not Westminster rule and that has got to be something to cheer.
@Arbroath1320: Sorry I’m going O/T again but anyone remember the fantastic display of how we are better together defence speaking in December 2011?
Well not to worry folks because guess what, it is happening AGAIN!
Oh for crying out…
See, out of ALL the stupid “Better Together” lies, the “we’re better defended by the Mighty UK” is by FAR the most infuriating because it’s the most demonstrably laughable of them all. HOW can you say we’re “stronger” when the UK CANNOT PROTECT ITS OWN BORDERS. Scotland is currently part of the UK, yet apparently cannot keep enough ships in its OWN WATERS to shadow a Russian fleet.
It’s cartoonish! It’s like a really bad sketch on a TV show! “The UK navy is the greatest in the world, that’s why we only have a handful of boats in our own waters and can allow a RUSSIAN FLEET to come within miles of our shore without anyone keeping an eye on them.” It’s just… I cannot believe ANYONE swallows this tripe. WHAT kind of supposed global power CANNOT PATROL ITS OWN BORDERS!?!
“The Roman Army is the mightiest in the world. That’s why we only have four legions in Italy, and had to send up the legion from Sicily to the Alps to shadow those elephants that’ve been spotted by a few farmers. Those Etruscan separatists just don’t appreciate that we’re Better Together.”
“The French Imperial Army is the mightiest in the world, so it’s no surprise that we had to send one of our three battalions based in France from Cannes to the Danish Border when some clogmakers noticed a Royal Danish battalion marching along. Clear proof to those silly Nederlanders that we’re Better Together.”
“The US Army is the mightiest in the world. That’s why we had no destroyers available in the northern Pacific to shadow those Japanese submarines, and just sent up the U.S.S. William D. Porter from Hawaii while some friendly Inuit keep an eye on them. I don’t know why all those countries reject US interventions in their countries when Daddy Britain showed us we’re clearly Better Together.”
@kininvie
It’s late, and there’s less whisky in the bottle than there should be, but….
Agreed, but it’s worth it to welcome a discussion about the new kid on the block.
We need all opinions voiced in the campaign for the restoration of our rightful place in the world of independent nations.
There’s an inherent conservative vote in Scotland, capital and small “c”…
The way the UK government shafted Scottish farmers (Tory voters) over the EU convergenge funds… The UK only qualified for this top-up money because Scottish farmers get such a pittance compared to English/Welsh/NI farmers, and even a more shocking pittance compared to farmers anywhere in the EU – this was the famous Thatcher rebate: she gave up farming subsidies and regional development funds for the benefit of the City and casino finance. Nice, eh?
This autumn, all parties in Holyrood wrote to the UK agri minister to send all that EU money to Scotland because it was only granted to the UK because of Scotland’s low CAP payments.
To no avail. The EU money that only came to the UK because of Scotland’s pitiful and dismal agri subsidies is to be shared across the whole UK. Better Together, aye? Scottish farmers lose out, again. And they’re livid. They’re beginning to think they’re not better together.
Scottish (big) farmers are traditional Tory voters. After being so massively shafted by Westminster, is it any wonder they’re looking at this independence thing with fresh eyes?
Add to that the SNP minister Richard Lochead who has fought the Scottish farmers’ corner for years and is generally seen as a good, hard-working guy… And now these Wealthy Nation people, who seem reasonable and smart and aren’t lefty nats… Maybe independence isn’t such a wild fringe idea after all…
Maybe independence will rid them (farmers) of stupid Westminster policies and give them an opportunity to vote for people who’ll look after their interests. Wealthy Nation types. A chance to get rid of Labour and the SNP and the Greens and get a proper conservative government in an independent Scotland. ;-D
It’s perhaps interesting to note that each time the SNP seem to hit a peak in these polling figures, it’s immediately followed by polls putting their figures right back down again.
I’ve been noticing this strange behaviour in the referendum polls and have began to expect a terrible polling result, shortly after any good news or rather good polling result for the Yes campaign.
Not accusing the ‘Torys’ who run these companies or the Tory’s that fund the individual polls, as being dishonest ! (that’s red or blue or Yellow Torys)
BUT… it does make one wonder 🙂
rev says
“the alternative is Strictly Come Dancing.”
Have you seen Abbie Crouch?
Hi and sorry to go OT
There is a facebook page called Scotland’s big Yes No debate with an argument raging about the GERS figures.
Basically a no supporter has posted an picture of part of table. It shows that, while the 9.9% in and 9.3% figures are correct, the actual monetary values are £56.8b in and £64.4b out.
Arguments are descending into ‘I don’t care/braveheart rules. Can anyone help?
that’ll be tye deficit thqt almost alo countries are currently running. in this case think4bil for debt repayments, 3.2bil on defense, 50mil on westmister/house of lords and it changes the picture slightly.. sorry fir the typos. my phone is really crap for this oinda stuff.
@ John King
no, but I’ve seen her curtsy! 🙂
that’ll be the deficit that almost also countries are currently running. In this case think 4bil for debt repayments, 3.2bil on defense, 50mil on Westminster/house of lords and it changes the picture slightly..
There are posts in her with regard to this stuff, but borrowing would also then be available to and iScotland to overcome any short term hole.
Got to a PC to make this post, (Rev feel free to delete the above.. )
Scaredy cat, the info should be on one of Business Scotland’s articles. It’s to do with the fact that the 9.3% figure is greater than the 9.9% because it covers all UK spending including wars, HS2 type spending etc that the Westminster government allocates on ‘our behalf. It’s not money that is spent is Scotland or money that we might chose to spend if we were independent. It also covers ‘our share’ of the deficit.
The 9.3 figure is the monies that are generated in Scotland even though we only have 8.4% of the population.
Sorry not to post the link, but am heading out and was just catching up on posts whilst I ate my breakfast!
“no, but I’ve seen her curtsy!”
I know this one does it end
But I aint seen a elephant fly?
Thanks guys. I was going to post a link but a couple of people have cleared it up already.
Another unionist addition to the YES camp.
“Former Tory MSP: I back indyref Yes vote”
link to heraldscotland.com
The trickle continues.
there is a simpler explanation for the SNP dip for Holyrood around the time of a UK general election. Those who are not generally politically engaged, can’t tell the difference. They become aware of an election, the UK parties are all over the TV, and they intend to vote Labour for the UK one, but get that mixed up with Holyrood.
I work for a housing association. it never fails to amaze me how many people think we are ‘The Council’
I think there has been an element of the Scottish Tories that have been more Scottish than Tory. Nick Johnston is perhaps a reflection of that.
Then there are the Scottish Tories who are simply right wing nut jobs. David Cameron’s special Scotland advisor Andrew Dunlop is a perfect example of that. One of the architects of the Poll Tax under Thatcher, a controversial Tory who has lived in England for over 30 years preaching ultra right wing politics and now involved in secret talks with Spanish government officials to thwart the referendum in Scotland and the proposed referendum in Catalonia. How can such a man claim to know what is best for Scotland?
@Scaredy Cat
If you post this link onto the FB page, it gives all the information anyone needs about GERS and Scotland’s financial position.
In summary, Scotland spends a bit more than it earns (but not that much more when you take into account all the share of UK debt interest payments and defence spending we get hit with),
The UK runs a monster deficit (£121 billion last year)
All Westminster does is borrow money from the international Money markets to pay their monster deficit, then give a very small part of that to Scotland and charge us a higher rate of interest on it (Wonga.com)
BTW everyone in the West runs a deficit in the current climate (except Norway of course). Scotland’s deficit is far smaller than most.
@Ivan McKee.
A good bar chart, just hover over the list of countries on the right hand side and it will high-light the deficit or surplus of the country.
link to gfmag.com
Just sent this to the Electoral commision
“Thank you for your prompt response to my previous email,
but on another note I would like to take the opportunity to ask the commission if it will be taking the Westminster government to task for not upholding an agreement to ensure fair and balanced reporting of the lead up to the referendum, while newspapers takes the stance they feel represents their readership that is their prerogative,
but the BBC has a duty enshrined in its charter to remain fair and unbiased, this unfortunately cannot be said to be the case as the litany of bias is legend and growing on a daily basis,
this of course is causing a lot of resentment within in a(growing) number of yes (but also is misleading people who have yet to make up their minds) voters who rather than pay to be fed a diet of lies and obfuscation (eg the case of BBC misreporting the views of the then Irish foreign minister, a complaint that was incidentally upheld by the BBC trust) are resorting to withholding their licence fee, this is causing deep distress for people who are naturally resistant to civil disobedience but see no alternative as the government in Westminster turn a blind eye to the lack of fair and balanced reporting.”
O/T
Kevin Scholfield – No idea of the guy at all, but.
He’s an exiled Scot ( ? / aye no’ far enough pal), broadcaster and The Sun’s chief political correspondent.
Sounds like a ‘fannybaws’ to me ?
(It was the Sun bit that did it Rev – honest)
This article got a mention on GMS by Ken this morning. A moderately interesting discussion ensued with again the prospect that Devo max might well be dusted down. I’m not sure about this and one of the guests did say that getting Labour, Tories and liberals to agree on anything concrete would be unlikely. However, I guess if the polls started to indicate that the slippage in the No vote is continuing to the point of destruction of the No campaign then panic may set in. In such circumstances I guess the unlikely could happen.
Conservatives coming out in support of Independence?
Sorry but that’s as bad as saying we’ll be having DODO for christmas dinner this year.
I’ve just read ah the comments, an know something, hangover or not, I’m in a rare wee mood!
@Bertie K
You have what you want for your dinner.
The crumbling in the ranks of the conservatives is joyful music to my ears. In all the polls the Tories break something like 97% No and 1 or 2% Yes. If their group think due to being a beleaguered sect in the Scottish political landscape can be broken we might hope for and get a more normal 15 to 20% “wrong” way vote as we do with the SNP and Labour voters.
The Tories aren’t dead in Scotland, merely keeping their heads down. At 15% of voters if we go from 1 or 2% to 15 to 20% of them, thats a 1.5 or 2% increase in Yes support AND a 1.5 or 2% decrease in No support.
3 or 4% decrease in the present gap, you’ll have scottisk_skier doing snowboard loops with excitement.
I wonder how many damascene conversions to independence will we now see from the right wing of politics?
I wonder how many Scottish ex-Ukippers will rethink their position?
gillie
To be fair there are not a hell of a lot of Scottish UKippers to change position in the first place.
As we already know, the question of independence or not is above petty political party differences.
It’s only the British State, and their media lackeys, who are trying to confuse the issue.
Party issues will be voted on after independence.
I do not care who comes over, if they are 100% for Yes and to improve Scotland, then they are welcome. They of course stand on their own merits when our first election is voted for.
We need all colours, but they must be those who really reject Westminster now, and in the future, Scottish interests must be paramount to them, so they will indeed need to make a sea change. However, if that does happen, we must welcome it.
One thing is certain, if we secure a Yes vote then all the political Nay Sayers will, like devolution, suddenly want to stand for an independent Scottish Parliament (with the exception of Ian Davidson obviously who will disappear in a puff of logic)
Comic Strip Eat the rich will be very much a topic at our table this Christmas.
My nephew just burned a copy to CD as we’ll be at the folks’ house!
link to youtube.com
@AnneDon:
“Again, I think Labour polled more or less the same number of votes in 2011 as in 2007; however, the SNP vote went up by the same amount as the LibDem vote went down.”
This is on the surface correct, but there was an interesting analysis of the election done by, among others, Prof Mitchell at Strathclyde Uni (can’t find it on the internet at the moment). It showed that of every 3 LD deserters, 2 went SNP, the other went Labour. That meant there was a significant number of Labour voters who switched to the SNP.
This is important, because it shows the Labour vote is not as solid as many traditionally think. They can be prised away.
Rev – Nice to see E McColm getting harassed by the Stalker / – phobe on twitter after discussing your goodself.
Now he can’t shake him off; what a chuckle.
Two developments recently have been a considerable boost to the Yes campaign. The support of Sir Charles Grey and Alex Mossan for the Yes campaign is very timely. These guys are west of Scotland SLAB men, who appear to command respect. It has Dennis Canavan’s fingerprints all over it. Hopefully he can get the Yes campaign more endorsements from SLAB and among the trade unions.
On the political right in Scotland we have seen the Yes campaign winning the support of the former Tory MSP, along with the likes of Peter de Vink and Michael Fry. Although I am no fan of the Tories to put it mildly, they still received over 400,000 votes in the last general election. Most of these votes will have come from the upper and middle classes. To win we need to get support from all sections of the Scottish electorate. The independence referendum is simply too important for us to get sectarian in terms of where we get support from. These figures from the right can reach places where the more left wing and social democratic mainstay of the Yes campaign are having a great deal of difficulty penetrating.
@Bertie K –
Thanks for that link to ‘Eat the Rich’. Never saw it before, just finished watching it. Brilliant stuff.
1987? Incredible…
n my opinion it comes down to one word – policies!