Wings Over Scotland

It won’t.

Okay, I should probably expand a little on that.

Firstly, ask yourself how it would happen. The Tories and Labour both have a huge vested interest in the status quo. Around half of Labour’s MPs are campaigning against AV (and the others are purely being opportunist because they’re in opposition), which gives the anti-AV camp an overwhelming Parliamentary majority of around 3:1. So who’s going to be driving any future reform through the Commons?

Labour had 13 years to implement electoral reform and didn’t, despite promising it in two manifestos and having very comfortable majorities to do it with. They’re only paying half-hearted lip service to extremely minor reform now, do you think they’re suddenly going to turn round and embrace the real thing when they get back into power, at which point FPTP will be working to their massive advantage? Sober up, folks.

The Tories will ALWAYS be against PR, and are at least being partially honest and principled in opposing it now. They believe in “strong” government at the expense of democracy, it’s a fundamental building block of Conservatism. (Even their own party isn’t democratic.) If you’re considering a Yes vote, ponder this: do you HONESTLY think David Cameron, as Prime Minister, would have even for a moment countenanced introducing a reform which he thought risked bringing PR a single step closer?

The Lib Dems held the balance of power last year – an opportunity which itself only arises about once every 40 or 50 years – and the best they could do was this, described so memorably by their own leader as a “miserable little compromise”. So what fantasy situation is it you’re imagining where they could force a referendum on PR? A vastly increased number of MPs giving them more bargaining power? Looked at the polls recently?

(One of two things will happen at the next General Election. Either the cuts will have worked, the economy will have recovered, everyone will be happy and the Tories will win in a landslide for saving the nation. Or they won’t, the economy will be ruined, half the population will be unemployed and Labour will win in a landslide. Either way the Lib Dems are screwed.)

The Lib Dems themselves have said this referendum is a “once in a lifetime” event. It’s only the second UK-wide referendum we’ve had in living memory. They don’t come around very often, and believing that we’ll get two on the same subject inside 40 years is daydreaming to the point of criminal, delusional irresponsibility.

(Some people argue for AV on the basis that it won’t lead to PR, but is still better in its own right than FPTP. But that’s wishful thinking too. Even if AV won, most people would just keep voting FPTP-style anyway. Can you really imagine a diehard Labour voter putting the Tories as their second, third, fourth or even fifth preference, and therefore risking contributing even marginally to them winning? At best you’ll get supporters of minor parties listing 1 and 2, everyone else just marking a 1, and the practical result of that will be exactly what we get now from tactical voting.)

All of this is moot anyway, because it assumes a win for AV today. Current polls are showing not only a defeat, but a crushing defeat. If No votes outnumber Yes ones two to one, as looks possible, it will be impossible to construct a rational, plausible argument against the claims that the public has given a resounding vote of confidence to the status quo.

Even now, though, there’s a course of action which can’t be so easily dismissed and ignored. An unusually high number of spoiled ballots will serve as proof that a large percentage of the electorate is unhappy with either of the options on offer today. Even (let’s say) a 60-20-20 split for No-Yes-Spoiled will keep the issue of electoral reform alive, in a way that a 60-40 defeat for AV simply won’t, because it’s a much less straightforward narrative.

It’s still not too late to make a difference. If, like me, you want PR then vote for both options. Or scrawl “MISERABLE LITTLE COMPROMISE” across the paper. Draw a cock and balls if you like. Just don’t be suckered by Cameron into doing what he wants. He wants you to make a fake choice so he can say the people have spoken and draw a line under the matter.

If you vote Yes or No, Cameron can’t lose. AV wouldn’t have kept a single Tory government of the last 50 years out of office, so while he pretends otherwise, he doesn’t really care if it comes in. He’s shot the fox of reform and enshrined Tory power while having clean hands – hey, he gave the people their reform, right?

If you vote No, he scores some extra brownie points but the outcome is the same – the whole issue of electoral reform has been killed stone dead by a resounding win for the status quo. Nobody reading these words today will live to see another referendum on the subject.

But if the people reject both options, there’s still a case to be argued. And while that’s a small victory, it’s the best that was ever on offer from this cynical stitch-up of a referendum. Better to keep one small candle alight than choose between two broken lightbulbs.