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How many chickens is this?

Posted on April 22, 2011 by

I don't know, because I'm not going to count them. But if the latest opinion poll is correct (and it's a big "if"), the electoral map of the Scottish Parliament is going to look rather different in two weeks' time:

65 seats are needed for a majority in the Parliament, and the Greens support an independence referendum, so if these figures are accurate the possibility of Scotland seceding from the UK will suddenly get an awful lot more real. And a Tory-led government in Westminster has already seen support for independence surge by almost 50%, to level pegging with those opposed to it.

Lots of footnotes apply to the above images. Firstly, the vast majority of Scotland's population lives in the Central Belt, so the huge block of yellow in the top half of the country doesn't actually count for all that much numerically. Secondly, Holyrood polls generally tend to underestimate the number of people who'll actually somehow find a reason to turn out and vote Labour when it comes to the crunch.

There's a long way to go yet, and it's wholly possible that scaremongering about the Tories (Labour's main tactic in the campaign so far) could still tip the balance to a Labour win, never mind them getting enough seats to block the referendum again. But if nothing else, it's nice to dream for a while.

18 to “How many chickens is this?”

  1. Lenny says:

    The Scots might, one day, get the balls to vote  for independence – but that doesn't mean they'll get it.  And even if they do, events in Australia in 1975 show what happens to an "independent" country which isn't.

    Reply
  2. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    link to en.wikipedia.org

    Not sure what "'independent' country that isn't" means, though.

    Reply
  3. Jon says:

    So will an "independent" Scotland that still has over 65% of the workforce employed by the government, produces very little of value to the outside world and is handing out free stuff left right and centre to any one who wants it, still want the bill picked up by English tax payers?
    As far as I'm concerned you can have your independence if you want to pay for it and then by all means charge me what you like when I come and visit but don't just expect the bill paid when we (the humble English taxpayer) doesn't get anything in return – apart from a virtual "Glasgow kiss" when expressing our opinion.

    Reply
    • Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      Oh dear. Someone’s been at the Ignorance Juice.

      Reply
  4. Jon says:

    Not really – just been looking at the deductions in my paypacket and wondering why it is we have to keep putting up with our governments continually taking the piss (and our cash) and not giving enough in return.

    Reply
  5. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    Then say that instead of trotting out some tired and idiotic shite about Scotland being subsidised by English taxpayers.

    Reply
  6. Jon says:

    But the fact of the matter is that Scotland IS being subsidised by English taxpayers – granted stopping the flow of cash from Westminster isn't likely to (or even should) happen overnight even if Scotland declared independence tomorrow, but it hardly seems fair that Scot's get free prescriptions, free university tuition, free this that and the other etc that IS largely (if not totally) paid for by English tax money when charges are continually increasing in England AND considering that over half of Scotland's workforce is actually employed by the Government and therefore only paying back a portion of their wages in tax that was provided by public money in the first place.

    Reply
  7. Ross says:

    1) Scottish public sector workers earn less than their colleagues south of the border.
    2) Their pay will be frozen for the next three years.

    Reply
  8. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    "But the fact of the matter is that Scotland IS being subsidised by English taxpayers"

    Sigh. No it isn't, and lazy, ignorant, uninformed bollocks like that is borderline trolling.

    "free prescriptions, free university tuition, free this that and the other"

    These things are not "free". They are PAID FOR out of the fixed Scottish block grant. Scotland doesn't get one penny of extra money to pay for them, it simply chooses to prioritise them over other things. English taxpayers could have free prescriptions and tuition fees too, if they elected politicians who would spend their money on them rather than on building giant tents in London, hosting the 2012 Olympics in London, building huge Crossrail projects in London, and pissing away tens of billions lining the pockets of PFI companies.

    Any more comments about Scottish people being "subsidised by English taxpayers" will be deleted unless accompanied by sources. In the meantime, read this:

    link to tinyurl.com

    and this:

    link to newsnetscotland.com

    and then ask yourself why, if Scotland is such a drain on the UK, all the main UK political parties are so desperate to hang onto it. Why would the Tories, for example, want to cling onto a part of the UK that unfailingly delivers a huge chunk of Labour MPs, and without which they’d currently have a very comfortable Westminster majority? Wake up.

    Reply
  9. To be fair Stu – if the price of oil was to drop to 37 pence a barrel (exaggeration for effect) then Scotland might possibly have something roughly approaching a budget deficit.
     
    As it is we've got enough money for everyone in Scotland to have a moat filled with liquid gold.  Pensioners would get two moats.  As it is we subsidise the rest of the UK.

    Reply
    • Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      Indeed. But actually most of the figures with regard to Scotland-England subsidy disregard oil revenues. And even if you include them in the figures, nobody says Saudi Arabia is unviable as an independent country because the price of oil is volatile. (Also, Scotland does in any event have a very substantial “back-up” in the shape of huge renewable resources.)

      Reply
  10. Jon says:

     
    As a British tax-payer I view ANY attempts regardless of who by to "piss my (tax) money (and anyone else's for that matter) up the wall" as morally and ethically wrong and it's of little comfort that I did my part in the last (and previous) elections and didn't actually vote for the previous ruling party – will this lot be any better – I hope so, will the people ultimately responsible for fucking the whole mess up in the first place ever get their comeuppance – I doubt it.
    Having read both articles (I'll be that surprised you) I honestly say I don't know which side to believe (a trait common in politics I suppose) – I guess trolling is probably the best way to describe un or mis-informed comments
    This is obviously a topic on which I'm not informed or experienced enough to comment on and I realise I should have probably kept my mouth shut in the first place.  I think it best to drop this thread now and apologise for any offence caused.
    8-(

    Reply
  11. Peter St. John says:

    Looks like the chickens may be hatching…

    Reply
  12. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    This is absolutely astonishing so far. Can we even take Gray? Should find out in the next 20 mins…

    Reply
  13. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    Ooh, so close.

    Reply
  14. Ross says:

    Miles away, you mean. In a good way.

    Reply
  15. Peter says:

    Jon, don't let not apparently not knowing the first thing about a subject stop you from piling in with your size 10's set to stun. [rolls eyes]

    Reply
  16. Morag says:

    Ten months late and a dollar short….

    Reply


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