Cameron’s triumph
Posted on
October 18, 2012 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
“There is a widespread assumption that the SNP has been outmanoeuvred by David Cameron in agreeing to a single question on independence” – the Independent, 15 Oct
Good work, Dave. Keep it up.
To be heard echoing around the walls of Downing Street…
Doh !
I think that Dave is great.
Dave’s on a roll! What else can we make him do?
“Calm down, dear”
You have to admire that guy, he really knows how to sort out us Scots.
I keep looking at the quote Stu has from Mahatma Ghandi and am trying to figure out where we are exactly in the sequence of events.
“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they come to fight you, and then you win.”
– ‘Mahatma’ M.K. Gandh
We’ve had stage one….they tried to ignore us.
We’ve had stage two as well…..they tried laughing at us
Does this mean that the SNP being outmanoeuvred by Cameron mean that we are at stage three already…..they try and fight us?
I’m guessing this is why we will see all the big guns on Question Time tonight. Not the time for them to bring along their wee pea shooters then!
Aye, but according to the Scotsman, support for independence is now in free-fall:
link to scotsman.com
Support for independence and/or the SNP always seems to take a dramatic downturn just before the start of an SNP conference. Strange coincidence.
I welcome these polls…
2 years to go, the scare stories have been astonishing so far and still support stays steady.
If we were standing at 75% in the polls for a ‘Yes’ vote, we would be subject to even worse propaganda. I suspect we wouldn’t even have gotten to hold the referendum.
As it stands, complacency and arrogance is well in place on the “No” side. Watch the effect as polls inexorably start creeping up. Blind panic will set in and when the Scots see that happen, more will vote Yes.
I cannot help but return to the 2011 elections when it was all but over for the SNP according to everyone including the bookies. Grahamski and others had Labour confidently sweeping back into power… history tells a different story and I will NEVER forget the live commentary from the BBC studios and gasps from senior Labour MSP’s.
The referendum will mirror this.
@luigi
Yes, suddenly everyone loves the union and wants Westminster Tory rule. Just like that.
I believe Labour made the very same ‘soft votes’ mistake a few months ahead of the 2011 election. Wow, what amazing poll ratings they had. Then these suddenly vanished. They vanished because it was not really what people wanted, but a gut reaction to certain circumstances, namely the UKGE2010 and the return of the Tories.
People are scared right now. The scare stories are working. However, when the EU confirms its position, BoE says Scotland can use the £, NATO is confirmed, defense shapes up etc, the fear will vanish. This will start soon. The white paper will be key.
As I’ve said before, the concept that we will go out to vote not knowing what the immediate aftermath of a yes vote will mean is comical. That could cause major uncertainties for the rUK, EU, NATO, never mind Scotland!
Dave just demonstrated that the rUK will happily agree to what happens in the event of a yes.
Wait and see what happens next. That’ll be the results of negotiations on the £, defense etc. These will largely happen before the vote. Not afterwards.
Will be just like 1997. What we will be voting for will be clear as day.
Support for Independence is in free fall. How can that be?
Don’t they believe their own poll?
Surely such an austere and revered newspaper can not ignore what its own poll is telling it?
Is this newspaper telling us that their very own poll is telling lies?
surely not. I don’t believe it!
My world is crumbling down all around me.
The Scotsman poll is wrong, how can this be?
There’s not much point either side crowing at the moment. We all have to wait for the only poll that matters in 2014. Happy to see that nationalists remain confident. Either result is perfectly possible. Two years is a long time, etc etc. But you would really rather that the unionists were polling at around 30% and the nationalists at 56%, rather than the other way round, wouldn’t you? Or is this some sort of hare and tortoise race devised by clever Mr Salmond?
Hi SS, I agree with much of your analysis although I am not quite convinced that we can use the polling data in the run up to last years election as a basis for what might happen in the run up to the referendum. I think it might be the old ‘a dog is for life not just for Christmas’ scenario. In other words an election result is reversible unlike a referendum result. which as the unionists never tire of telling us. “there is no going back!” I would appreciate any thoughts you might have.
Whilst you’re here Effie. What do you have to do to get a comment approved on Labourhame?
The most recent article is about choice, and i’ve posted twice agreeing with the article.
Seemingly saying that you could choose not to spend billions on Trident and illegal wars is not allowed.
For every one who is getting a wee bit sick of the never ending Independence polls here is another one.
Don’t worry it is not political, there again maybe it is.
link to micropoll.com
Effie,
I would be extremely worried by the latest poll if I was a unionist.
‘All giving an intention’ had only 52% prepared to back the union. So, within error, lets say that it’s correct, that means right now only half the electorate back the union.
This is after the great year of Britishness, in the middle of a scary recession, with the media at nat-bashing peak and independence scare stories day after day.
Oh dear.
Just wait until all the scare stories have been cleared up, the EU have stated their position, Gideon and the BoE theirs, NATO too etc….
Then we’ll start swinging quickly back to what polls were like in the post win euphoria, with the YES ahead of the no. 1997 was exactly the same and just like then, we will be voting for something very certain.
When Dave signed up to the deal, he signed up to negotiations before the referendum, not after it. Think about it.
That’s why the unionists are not confident and yes camp is.
@Bil C
Bill, the polls showed the Y well ahead of the N around last winter. People don’t go from supporting independence to supporting the union. They go from supporting independence to being unsure its a good idea right now. They still want it though. Likewise, unsures, who like the idea of independence (otherwise they answer a firm ‘no’) tend to no when nervous. You are right, it is not comparable with elections. However, the concept of a soft vote which can suddenly swing applies in both cases.
This swing back will occur when one by one the main scare stores – which concern defence and foreign affairs (EU membership etc) – vanish. And vanish they will, for there could not be a referendum if they were not cleared up ahead of it.
Thanks for getting back to me SS. Yes I see where you coming from. I think you are right, the no vote is soft, the fact that the YES vote goes up dramatically if folk think they will be better off shows that. I think you are also on the money in saying that the really big issues i.e. Europe, Nato, Sterling etc will be game changing. If as you say, these are cleared up and people are secure in the knowledge that the roof will not fall in if they vote YES, I think we will win. That is why I personally feel that tomorrow’s vote is vital. I understand wher people like Jamie Hepburn are coming from, I have been anti-nuclear all my adult life, but the big prize is surely independence. I sincerely hope that tomorrow delegates vote with their heads rather than their hearts.
Thanks again.
Does anyone remember what the opinion polls were saying in the run-up to September 1997? Of course it was a much shorter campaign so it’s not comparable, but I wonder what it was like.
I was living in England then, so I wasn’t really in touch with the day-to-day developments. I remember flying home in the evening in time to vote, and being apprehensive – especially about the second question. The immediacy of the landslide from the very first result was definitely a surprise to me. (I remember phoning the house in Brighton where the London SNP were gathered, and each side shrieking down the phone at the other.)
I do remember the BBC bias on the say though. They kept saying the turnout was really low and people didn’t seem to be interested. Then they said that if turnout was really low a yes vote would lack legitimacy. Eventually BBC Scotland wised up, in the evening, but network BBC was still peddling the low turnout thing the next day. My business partner phoned me and said, well the turnout was so low it wasn’t very decisive, was it. Then he said, what about the counties that voted no?
He wasn’t getting that from CNN, either.
I’m always reassured by SS and is logic/polling data.
I also just keep reminding myself what Margo said in Edinburgh, ‘if each of us just persuade one more person to vote for independence then we are home and dry’. It is that simple.
Also, as far as I’m aware that’s the unionist’s blown their wad. They’ve had their jubilee and Olympics and no doubt it’s helped their campaign, but just think, next year sees another £10bn of additional cuts from Gideon, plus I’ve no doubt that some scandals will emerge from the Olympics which will help dampen any residual feelings of ‘one nation’.
We have to look forward to the white paper which will lay out for all to see how an independent Scotland will look – and I’m confident we have the economic factors to show it to be not only a completely viable choice, but in reality, we would be bloody stupid not to vote yes.
The unionists, as well as trying to counter the white paper also have to be seen to be getting on with further devolution plans – and they have to be concrete plans because we won’t fall for ‘jam’ tomorrow again.
So frankly, I’m not that worried about the polls – we were always going to take a bit of a beating this year after all the summer’s events. I’m actually surprised that they aren’t lower.
I suppose Effie’s right, but I don’t know. Peaking too soon could be a danger, I suppose. I’m not worried by the polls, because I never expected them to move this early. People who aren’t already convinced are going to want to think about it for a while before going one way or the other.
I’m depressed by the relentless negativity from the journalism profession though. We’ve been through it before of course – the sky was going to fall if we had a devolved parliament, or if the SNP got into government, or if they formed a majority government. It’s still up there as far as I can see, But as Scottish Skier says, the key is the White Paper, and that takes time to negotiate and finalise.
Juteman. I think you should be allowed to say what you like on Labourhame, and I imagine many Labour supporters would agree with your views. Unfortunately however, I have no connection with that blog, being one of those rarest of Scottish political animals, rarer even than the Pandas! By the way may I say that while I may disagree with many of you here, it’s good to see people using thought, reason and politeness when they comment.
Dave is the best asset the SNP have, it seems.
I’m repeating myself a little here probably, but this is crucial to what will happen in 2014 and it seems the media are doing their best not to make it clear.
The referendum negotiations…
Took quite a bit of time to ‘negotiate’ everything the Scottish Government wanted, particularly given the UK government couldn’t actually block anything proposed (it’s not as if the Scottish Government were proposing anything really silly) due to the legal status of Scotland in the union (a valid treaty between two governments).
So what were they talking about? Well, yes, the referendum. But also what happens in the event of a Yes vote. This will continue until the white paper is ready. After that, it will still go on, but with the bulk of the main work done. This is why we are not having a referendum immediately as much as anything. We can’t; not until what happens afterwards is agreed.
David Cameron signing the agreement is extremely important. It is more than just ‘there will be a referendum’ but it implicitly states that the UK government will accept the result. Ergo so will the EU, UN, NATO and so forth. If Scots vote Yes, then the Scottish Government will declare independence shortly afterwards. The rest of the world will welcome Scotland(particularly as the UK government has accepted the result) and Scotland will instantly be independent (in terms of control of its territory).
This is the crucial point. At that stage, Scotland will be independent. It will be sitting there with the UKs WMDs, pumping oil and gas south, with EU citizens getting up to go to work etc, power being sent south to keep the lights on with £’s moving around to pay for it, UK military bases doing what they do…. Yet, Westminster will not ‘control’ it anymore.
Ergo there is no way we will be entering the referendum without a clear agreement between the UK, Scotland, the EU etc as to what will happen at this moment. Not doing this would be completely crazy for all concerned. So crazy that we should not even countenance such a ridiculous idea.
It must all be agreed beforehand. Minimal uncertainty. A vote not for the unknown, but for something very well defined.
There can be no other way.
Dave knows it. The SNP know it. Labour know it.
At some point soon, the better together campaign will need a positive case for the union.
As an aside – you can see why the unionist goal has been always to prevent a referendum, because when one is organised, many of the scare stories must vanish ahead of it.
Good post SS, I hadn’t thought if it in such all encompassing terms.
SS, my understanding was that in the event of a yes vote in 2014, the negotiations start then and the declaration of independence would be at some point after that but before the 2016 election? Your version sounds a lot tidier and better thought out, maybe that’s why I have problems aligning that with westminister involvement!
@Kevbaby
If Scotland was fighting it’s way out in an armed rebellion, then that would be the case. However, it is voting its way out. Negotiations are before in this case. That makes a hell of a lot more sense to all those involved, not just Scotland.
Of course transferring tax destinations, share of debt would take place over a period following the vote, territorial independence is effectively immediate if the Scottish people say yes and the international community recognise this (the referendum deal effectively ensures they will). There are major implications to this; hence negotiations beforehand.