Almost at the limit
Thank goodness there are only 18 days of the independence campaign remaining. We’re not sure we have the capacity to absorb much more idiocy like the below.
Betting £800,000 to win £973,333 isn’t “making £1m”, you hapless shower of comedy dolts. It’s risking £800,000 of money that you already had to try to make a profit of than a quarter of that, or very roughly ONE SIXTH of £1m.
“Making £1m” is when you put a fiver on a mad nine-horse accumulator and they all come in. This is gambling a vast sum on an event where polling is almost evens, yet getting odds of barely a fifth. It’s a mug bet. A ripoff. They saw you coming. A fair and sensible headline would have been “Sucker Gets Fleeced By Bookies”.
Stick to Katie Price, ITV. Leave the politics, and the counting, to the grown-ups.
Well that’s one way of keeping the bookies from lowering the odds on a YES vote. Nice one Mr Cameron, I’m sure the bookies will use your money wisely (to pay out to all those who bet on a YES)
Is this why the bookies’ odds on YES are still 3.5-1 or thereabouts, even though we known that is mince?
An equal society ? Being able to bet 800,000 on the outcome of a referendum with the possibility of such a poor return in the event of a YES vote really says it all.
BETTER TOGETHER = THE BIGGEST LIE OF OUR TIME…..
A political punter could make £1 million. Credit: PA. Why is it often anonymous Press Association hacks that they use for the worst propaganda anyway? Guardian uses them a lot for their more extreme attacks on Yes vote, which have to be pretty extreme even for those liggers.
link to en.wikipedia.org, looks like PA is owned by the whole of teamGB media, the creepy gits
Daily Mail and General Trust
News International
United Business Media plc
Trinity Mirror plc
Guardian Media Group
The Telegraph Group
Johnston Press
Archant
DC Thomson
Midland News Association
Thomas Crosbie & Co
Academics are illegally (without a mandate) getting £Millions of public money from BT to rig the Polls. It is illegal to use public money for political purposes, without a mandate. Criminal gerrymandering.
Academics are getting £Millions of public money, without declaring an interest. This can affect their professional judgement.
PA Managing Director? also top Telegraph dude, career via Scotsman and he heads Commission on Scottish Devolution which is nice. Less hack, more hard core establisment propaganda controlor.
link to theguardian.com
Something to consider is that although the betting heavily favours a no vote, the odds in any event change according to what the bookmaker stands to lose. For example if someone puts £4k on a horse at 3/1, a smart bookie will lower that price to 2/1 or whatever to minimise losses/secure a profit. So although the forecast may seem bleak when one looks at the betting on the referendum, the prices are, to some extent, a reflection of these large amounts of money that have been placed on a no vote.
If this bet is true then he/she should consider buying an airline, F1 team or premier league football team.
William Hill will declare the punter with such an interest? Or is it just a massive publicity scam.
Hand over your money and place your bets. Even more for Graham Sharpe, William Hill.
Never mind,I’m still happy with my five to one punt (investment?) on YES.
Just try putting a substantial bet on a Yes win and see how far you get. My brother tried to put two thousand on a Yes and not a single bookie would accept the bet, the max he could put on was £39 and only online (so one bet per account type stuff) They are all in on the ruse like a big evil fucking Mafia with tentacles everywhere.
You could easily get this return off a quick punt on shares, with virtually no risk if you are prepared to wait. Plus dividend. Betting makes no sense at those odds.
heedtracker says:
Creepy indeed, given they ALL work against Scottish Democracy.
I am also seriously doubting the bet itself, as it suits this group of shysters, so they can make a negative for our campaign.
In Scotland (the voters) bets are on YES.
In the South (non voters – higher %) the bets are on NO.
Place yer bets on the winner.
I see at the bottom that 40% reject a currency union with Scotland.
That probably means that 60% don’t reject it.
On topic, Ladbrokes political odds setter Shadsy has quite interesting blogs on the referendum and political betting in general.
‘Indyref punters move strongly towards YES
So, for August to date, almost 75% of the bets Ladbrokes have taken have been for YES. How come the odds have moved in the opposite direction? Here are three of the reasons why:
1. The £600k punter. William Hills have reported that they’ve taken £600k from just one client on NO. That bet alone will have had an impact on the whole market; Hills can push their YES price out as a result, other companies have to do the same if they want to compete for that money.
2. The Exchange market. If we simply reacted to the supply and demand of our customers, our prices would quickly be out of line with the betting exchanges, opening up arbitrage possibilities which would quickly be exploited, with the odds settling down at a marginally lower price for YES. That doesn’t mean the exchange price is necessarily the “true” one, because in this market in particular, I think we are talking about two totally different categories of investor. Maybe the Scottish high street betting shop punter is actually better placed to assess the situation that the broader based exchange client base. I’m more of the opinion that you’ve got a better chance of coming to an objective view on the probabilities by being removed from anecdotal “on the ground” evidence.
3. Oddsmakers have taken an opinion. Probably the most important factor. To be totally honest, we are of the belief that a lot of the YES money is motivated more by optimism and confirmation bias rather than the hard evidence of the polls. So we’re taking it on. Opinion pollsters and bookies alike will be taking a hit on September 19th if the Scots have voted for independence.’
link to tinyurl.com
The result of a poll was recently shown on a news programme as being Yes 49% – No 51% but the newscaster stated the No campaign had a lead of 51% not 2%. I watched it twice as I couldn’t believe it. How is it possible in a supposedly fair and democratic society are the media getting away with these rank distortions.
Deal of the Century boys and girls.
Get yer knickers on a yes vote.
The Bookies are laughing their cocks off and so should we.
Wealth redistribution thanks to the City.
“We love to hear from you! All your feedback and comments are really important”
Apparently not, since there are no comments sections, no contact details regarding news stories, no contact details for complaints, and no contact details for anyone in charge of anything.
Anyway, because, hey it might just have been an honest accounting mistake (suuuuure), I emailed them to let them know they had their arithmetic wrong. I’m not holding my breath for a response:
__________________________________________________________
“In your news item, headlined “Political punter could make £1m if Scotland votes No” ( at link to itv.com) the person who wrote the article appears to have forgotten everything he was taught at school regarding basic arithmetic. Namely, that if you bet £800,000 and you stand to get £1,000,000 back should you win your bet, then you are only making £200,000, not £1 million. This is because £1,000,000 (return) minus £800,000 (stake) = £200,000 (profit).
Perhaps you might like to correct the headline to one which more accurately reflects the actual story, to something like, for example, “Political punter could make £200,000 from £800,000 bet if Scotland votes No”.
I realise that making it clear that that a return rate of 1 to 4 isn’t quite as sexy as “COULD WIN A MILLION POUNDS”, but at least it’s accurate.
Oh, and I sent this to viewerservices because there are no comments sections on your news stories, and no contact details for anything to do with news stories on your contact page. I’m sure that’s just something accidentally overlooked.
Yours etc”
I’ve got £20 on Yes at 9/2. The thought of a £90 win quite enough for me.
The bookies will take all bets on a NO result but,sometimes they don’t want to take an extra fiver on a horse as they might have to pay out on that.Imagine taking that cash with a straight face while wondering if said punter would like a wager on an alien invasion/Elvis comeback double. 🙂
I am very grateful to the mug punter as it means I am getting much better odds.
William Hill put out a thing a few weeks ago showing that nowhere in Scotland is betting more on no than Yes. 79% of all money bet in Scotland is on Yes. 75% of money bet in London is on No
It seems that a Ladbrokes press release says that 95% of bets recently placed in Scotland are for YES, while 75% of those elsewhere are for NO.
link to politicshome.com
Love the last line there Stu. No voting (“better the devil you know”, “don’t tell me anything that might upset my fragile but longstanding faith in the status quo”)heaven indeed.
The whole point is, surely the bookies are willing to take
£800,000 off some idiot who is willing to lose that much.
If I was a bookie I would bite his hand off too The bookies, like ourselves have probably a good insight and know that its a safe bet they will not have to pay out on.
Ps since this bet has been laid over several months he could never win a million the £100 and odd thousand he hopes to win will still be taxable and the loss of interest from June and August will also cost him dear As the bookies of old used to say there is one born every minute.
Sorry for the repeat of Iain’s information. His post had not arrived as I began mine!
Note to
Grousebeater et al
If you want to make a small fortune out of wine, start with a big one.
If you want to lose a big fortune on this Referendum, bet on No.
O/T
see this poll for UKIP in Clacton….
64 % 64 % 64%
link to theguardian.com
If this goes England wide Nigel Farage will be the next PM come 2015. Not just a junior coalition partner.
What a monster the BBC and MSM have created.
Project Fear? I am now really terrified !
Gobsmacking news and BBC Trust has new boss, City banker runs BBC trust shock! Talk about your BBC oxymorons. Can’t think why same City of London that destroyed our economy and we all have to suffer for, now wants a City bankster at the top of the BBC. Maybe all the City super rich just want more world class drama n shit, Dr Who, Cash in the attic, endless Familly Guy repeats etc
link to theguardian.com
On Sunday Politics Gordon Brewer interviewing the FM, interupting him while there already was a time delay. Then picture break up. Nice one.
The real story however was the usual comic relief from Oor Wullie Rennie. I haven’t laughed out loud so much since the last time he was interviewed.
Brewer was pressing him on interest rate in iScotland.
Brewer “… but why will it rise?”
Are you ready for this? I kid you not “Because it will go up!”
O/T Not William Hill but Pentland Hill
Some of our Yes colleagues have been busy.
Above the Ski Slope at Hillend HUGE Y E S letters are staring down on Edinburgh. Professional job; can be seen for miles. Go take a look – will put a massive smile on your face.
I dont have a good enough camera but I’m sure this wll be on social media soon.
Great start to the week 🙂
I’ll be putting two more bets on Yes with the lovely Yes voting bookie, William Hills.
I expect to make another thousand pounds, and to divide it between my two daughters, still struggling to own their first home, a right removed by our uncaring, unsharing Westminster government.
Orwell and Nationalism – grousebeater.wordpress
Yesterday’s Horse Racing results;
link to racingpost.com
I count 10 double figure odds winners from 42 UK races, up to 25/1.
O/t Just back from Falkirk where btnt had a stall I was accosted three times as I walked past lastly by a lady who went through the usual. I just stared at her till she finished and said Sorry did you make that up over a second cup of tea? you are obviously mistaking me for someone who thinks that the uk is a good thing a second lady (Southern english) appeared from nowhere and said “there was no need to be so rude you will be throwing eggs at us next”where is your pride in the country? Winston churchill didn’t fight and die so that we have to take this sort of abuse off the likes of you! I pointed that A) I would not waste good eggs ,B) unlike the many millions during ww2 Winston never actually fought and c) since he died in 1967 he never actually died for us either. But I did note one thing that Winston said
“That a country that lives on its knees did not exist”
I pray that our country gets off its knees on the 18th
Graun takes the piss out of BBC Trust con but it’s fun too. New Chairperson Fairhead says
“In an interview in 1998, Fairhead, who has three children and is married to a former Tory councillor, said women could have children and still be successful in the City. “That’s an important message for people to receive, since there has been a feeling recently you can’t have both.”
But HSBC, very very NO to Scotland running Scotland are basically a giant convicted money laundering outfit for global mafias, drug cartels, terrorists, and who knows what else-
“A long-term non-executive director of banking group HSBC – which paid a fine of $1.9bn in 2012 to settle US money-laundering accusations involving Mexican and Colombian drug cartels – Fairhead has an MBA from Harvard Business School. She was selected as the government’s preferred candidate following what it said was “an open recruitment process”, overseen by an independent public appointments assessor. She will appear before the culture, media and sport select committee on 9 September.”
So let’s get one of them in at the top of the BBC by implementing the trustworthy BBC’s “open recruitment process.” or just one more BBC shyste in action. So from an outfit that gave a job to the horror that is Jimmy Saville for decades, to the high finance world of City drug cartel drug money laundering. It’s a long way from CBBC and say future Sir Gordon Brewer isn’t it.
O/T
Oops!
link to newsnetscotland.com
bigpolmont
Doesn’t sound like abuse to me. Sounds like you assassinated them with intellect and fact. Nice one. A lesson to us all.
I should have added to that post that we hear people saying the bookies don’t often get it wrong, but what they mean is that the bookies always make a profit, but that’s not the same.
The bookies make a profit because they calculate the odds well enough to make a profit whatever the result. The over-round is roughly 12% on the average horse race.
And because some punters back ‘the favourite’, unnamed, the bookies will sometimes push out the price of a well backed horse to make sure that horse doesn’t end up as the favourite, thus ensuring they pay out less on the result and maximise their profit. Allegedly.
If the punter had not put on the £600,000 for a No vote bet how would the odds be looking now.
@biggpolmont
The only honest defence of the Union involves nostalgia and jingoism. No top of that is of course the vast dishonest pitch.
@Richard Lucas,
I’ve a few wee bets placed at different bookies on a Yes.
When I win, I’m going to take the winnings into the local food bank, lay them on the counter and ask.
“What do you want me to buy with this and I’ll drop along later with it+ a receipt for your records.
It is just one more UKOK fraud. 800 grand gets a you nice but small 2 up 2 down NW1 Primrose hill terraced house. Short term let for 6 months flog it for £1.3 million next spring. Zero risk. Average 2 up 2 down Primorose Hill NW1? Foxstones say £2.75 million.
It is an excellent way to transfer money from rich english tories to
Scotland.
Here’s the Pentland Yes.
link to twitter.com
I worked in a factory once with a very “Successful’ punter.He could not see that his £500 “Wins” were costing him £600.His toadies thought him a financial wizard.
Better photo here.
link to twitter.com
If you’re a swithering, 800 grand on Scotland voting No, super heated west London housing market gambler and you don’t want to pay stamp duty on house speculating, spend £1500, set up a nice little company in Guernsey, HeedTracker Enterpises inc, make all buys through your new co, pay no stamp duty.
And then toast socialist worker frae Fiife and former PM Gordon Brown, who persoanly set up that enormously tasty tax evaders dream loop hole.
I have to laugh at all this ‘bookies odds’ nonsense. There is a simple rule about betting, taught to me when I was young :”Decide how much it’s worth to you to see your team win…then stick it on the other team”
So bookies odds are telling you nothing about the outcome. If I had any spare money, I’d be betting on a “NO” win. At least I’d have a windfall to drink my sorrows away and holiday in Panama for a while 😀
As with most things the betting for the referendum is not straightforward and does show some unusual trends. At present the best odds on a No vote are 1/6 while best on Yes is 4/1, done and dusted, however it’s when we look at the percentage breakdown of the number of bets placed this tells a slightly different story. In a normal 2 horse race, let’s take a horserace with 2 horses for instances, you would expect to find the percentage of the number of bets placed to be in the region of 85% – 15% in favour of the odds on favourite @ 1/6. In the case of the Referendum betting however the percentage breakdown of bets placed to date is 60.19% in favour of Yes and 39.81% in favour of No. The stats are certainly national stats for the entire UK so it may be that not everyone has a vote however, gamblers tend to bet on things they know about or things they have a direct interest in so it’s fair to assume a large proportion of bets placed were by voters. All gamblers bet to win therefore it follows that those having placed a bet and who are entitled to vote will do so in favour of winning their bet.
Stats from Oddschecker website: link to oddschecker.com
@Jon D
This:
link to edinburghnews.scotsman.com
[…] « Almost at the limit […]
‘Gambling only pays when you’re winning’. P. Gabriel.
O/T Just read the Rev’s twitter and there’s some actress on there calling him names – what’s new – but the bit that makes me laugh is when she goes on about having to turn the clocks back for a few sheep.
I’ve seen this mentioned a few times and it appears that there are some people who actually believe that they are losing an hour of day-light when the clocks are changed!
New post, please share
A Hard Rains A Gonna Fall, Part 2
todayinscotland | The Referendum Blues
link to todayinscotland.wordpress.com
Nice to see the picture of the giant YES banner on the Pentland Hills as linked above. Is the YES banner that was visible from the Erskine Bridge still there, or is that gone now ?
The £800,000 is a ‘political’ bet with the intention of raising the published odds against a YES win to try to convince people YES isn’t winning. It is either one (or a group) of billionaire’s method of contributing to NO without their name being discussed, with the outside chance of making a bit of money if NO do win OR it could even have originated from the WM Government, since they have few scruples.
Whoever it is they are clearly so rich that £800,000 is a mere trifle to them.
Those signs must have taken a lot of effort to put on the hill. It must have taken them some time to do.
Regarding the £800k bet, ever thought that this could secretly be subsidised by Westminster, in order to help make Scotland appear a beaten entity?
If you could conceive the thought, then it will be our taxes that are paying for their subterfuge!
Would we put it past them, considering everything else?
maybe not!
love it morag
“the hills have ayes”
Speaking of “almost at the limit,” anyone read the Express’ astounding “expose” of “privatisation of the Scottish NHS”?
link to express.co.uk
So not only are the Express blaming the SNP for something that councils are doing, and not only are they confusing privatisation of funding with privatisation of services but they’re equating voluntary organisations and councils with the likes of Atos and Virgin Health.
I really think there’s something wrong with these people.
Good on the Scottish punters for getting behind a Yes- a wee boom for the country when we win. What I really want to see is this glorious and diverse movement somehow stick together rather than dissipate whatever the result. Having such a vast movement working together from across the political spectrum and across age groups and demographics is a powerful force.
The political landscape in 10 years time will be unrecognisable but if we can retain this progressive movement in some form we will have something incomparable in value for the future.
As for someone betting £800,000 against my country’s freedom in an attempt to harness and capitalise on the negativity of the press, tv and westminster interference it is not only beneath contempt but risible in its stupidity.
I’m fair worried that Scot’s don’t realise they won’t be able to use Oh flower of Scotland as an anthem if they reject Independence.
You could hardly be singing Oh we can rise up now, and be the nation again,
Ian Mor at 31 August, 2014 at 2:09 pm
I often do that too, particularly when Scotland are playing International Matches. I bet as much as will relieve my sorrows for a loss so whatever the outcome I end up happy.
But the other thing about bookies is that they work to ‘balance the book’. So in a two horse race if a very large bet is placed on one, the odds for the other are stretched way out to encourage people to bet on it.
The web site “Political Betting” a right wing Tory anti-Indy site has been living off the odds created by the big bettor for 3 years now.
To Gordon Brewer’s question, ‘What’s you feelings about Salmond asking for a mandate to help secure a shared currency,’ our resident intellectual heavy weight, David Torrance, replied, “I can’t see how you can impose that on another country-”
But he was cut short by Brewster who pointed out Salmond was asking for a mandate to negotiate not to impose.
Yes, Gordon, but it means more than that.
It means we are still part of the United Kingdom for even England claims it is a democracy, its parliament the ‘mother of democracy,’ thus England is legally and morally obliged to accept that proposal unless, that is, it rejects democracy and all its processes.
Incidentally, I get the distinct impression BBC’s Brewster is getting mightily impatient with political shallowness and dissembling. Maybe he sees his days numbered unless he can point to the times he unnerved liars and charlatans.
For shizzle link to theguardian.com
Another day, another vote No for more stuff shysting.
Why is it not getting old though? I have never ever met any English human being that wants devolved powers anywhere in England. And mainly because one giant sink hole of corrupt war mongering, spendthrift nutters in the noble HofC and the even more noble HofL, is plenty.
These third parties include commercial firms, voluntary organisations and councils, in order to fund care for the elderly, people with mental health issues and learning disabilities, and community care
Strictly speaking, those are NOT NHS medical areas.
If we take the American model now being adopted with vigor by Westminster for the English NHS, privatisation is related to who carries out your operation and for what cost you will pay; which global pharmaceutical entity supplies your medication at monopoly rates; how many suregons and doctors are privateeers, and who runs once-owned state hospitals unaccountable to the state.
I readily concede a nation ought to invest in state care for the mentally ill and the elderly, but there’s an argument for both state and private care out of, or after hospital care, if I can put it that way.
Taranaich
like you say all nhs buy in services when required, i thought the figure was £40m pa.
funny they don’t mention the PFI £220m pa millstone, the bill which is given to the taxpayer, via reduction in funding in real terms, slung around scot nhs neck.
done to enrich “investors” and make it sluggish, so it’s easier to make it look bad and unprofitable.
“what’s wrong with them” apart from being deluded…they expect us to keep their scrumptious kindergarten refreshed with wonderful things, that’s what.
Graun vote No or else wittering over some devo con but this is the real rallying cry for all northerns oop Norf, where its grim
“Following this, we need a decade of genuine devolution, starting with the big cities but reaching out elsewhere as and when new combined authorities (including county-district arrangements) can be formed. Those ready to act now should not be held back by those with less appetite or capacity for change.”
I say!
@schrodinger’s cat.
Is that an example of thinking outside the box?
Someone in England described their royalty as if pulling back a stage curtain slightly, audience catches sight of said royals and bursts out laughing very loud. Exact same describes all UKOK BettertogtherBBC journalism.
And, of course, it completely undermines the Express’ entire point of Scotland’s NHS being privatised “through the back door.”
Exactly, they treat budget cuts as if they’re some sort of natural disaster that cannot be avoided, as opposed to completely idealogically-driven decisions made by the UK government – yet expect the Scottish government to do something about it!
Frankly, the entire piece is one giant advertisement for Yes: this situation can be alleviated only if Scotland has full control over its own funds
This comment back in June strangely coming true
link to theguardian.com
10 June 2014 8:26pm
On June 24, 2013, we get the ‘story’ from the Daily Record of the man who bets £200,000 at William Hills on a No vote.
On June 9, 2014, we get the Times reporting the same ‘story’ as that in the Record… with the suggestion that it had happened just recently.
Now today, June 10, 2014, we get this ‘story’ in the Guardian (and others?) of someone laying a £400,000 bet at William Hills on a No vote…
Hhhmmmm……
What will we get next, someone betting £800,000 on a No vote? And then a bet of £1,600,000 on No? Then one of £3,200,000? Another at £6,400,000? Yet another at £12,800,000? And on and on incrementally?
Is this Bet(ter) Together and their friends in the media’s new strategy-squirrel – “Woo! Look! People are putting loads of money on a No vote, so you poor fools hoping for a Yes vote might as well just give it all up now as it means that No is definitely going to win!”?
The odds at ladbrokes on friday was 7.2 YES and 1.4 NO, that had dropped from 9.2 & 1.8 at start of week and the lass behind the counter agreed the money for NO was coming from the south and the money for YES was coming from Scotland.
We have to remember that down south the vast majority of ordinary people are only getting their info about the referendum from the media, no one is speaking to them face to face, so of course they are putting their money on NO. The bookies are not going to let that windfall escape their clutches as their is a lot more of them than us.
Still, I got 7.1 for a YES win over 55%.
The truth is that Westminster are betting the house, the ermine round their necks and the debt, on a No vote. £800,000 at the bookies is peanuts. 🙂
Probably British Government money i.e. ours!
I have picked this off a Herald thread as it is a nice rejoinder to those who give their reason for a NO because the don’t like Alex Salmond. I hope the writer doesn’t mid (name withheld just in case)
I went into a Glasgow city centre pub yesterday for a pint and a chat. While I was standing at the bar awaiting said pint I notice a man sitting drinking and that he was wearing a No button. I said to him, ‘fair play to you mate at least you’re not wearing one of those No thanks ones’. He looked at me a bit suspiciously as I was wearing a Yes button but nodded his acknowledgement. I then said ‘would you mind telling me why you’re voting No. He replied ‘I don’t like Salmond’. He then asked me why I was voting Yes. I told him it was because I didn’t like Johann Lamont, he smiled and said ‘you’re joking aren’t you’. I replied ‘of course I am, aren’t you’?
Sorry folks, my betting should be round about on the NO bet, 1.4 down to 1.8 – I think.
Great place to keep up with the latest odds from the top bookmakers:
link to oddschecker.com
O/T
Alleged arson attack on shop covered in Yes banners last night.
Tony Little
Love it – will be borrowing that one!
While I don’t mind Willie Rennie as a relatively genuine Liberal Democrat (and we don’t get many of them to the pound at the greengrocers) he looks particularly uncomfortable trying to remember the party line for BT, especially when Gordon Brewer, who was being quite kind to him asked him why car loans or mortgages might be dearer in Scotland just because the Scottish government might use the pound without a currency union. He didn’t seem that clued up on the large scale involvement of Scottish banks in the London and international markets either.
O/T a BBC chief with a degree from Harvard. Does this mean a merger with Sky sometime in the next charter period after Scotland tells them to sling their hook? How very proud the UK must be of their business universities…..
No credit for the piece? Always a mark of quality in the media.
Seriously a sucker’s bet though, as Rev Stu pointed out. With the polling results, etc. as they are to get those odds and make that profit is piss poor.
Wonder if that was what JK’s donation was spent on? 😉
He’s not able to vote in the referendum which indicates he doesn’t live in Scotland. We can pretty much guess where he does live but the fact that he is willing to piss all that money away in order to win a fraction of it is what is wrong with the UK.
Too many people with too much money pissing it away instead of using it constructively.
I’m looking forward to a wee payout when the result is yes, using the winnings to get a puppy and going to call it Indy
@Indigo
I like your thinking. Wonder how many names will be inspired by Scottish independence?
@Welsh not British
Agreed with the wasteage thing. Lot of short sighted money grabs or spends too, instead of trying to set us all up for the long run – hence no oil fund from UK Gov and the banks all crashing because of short sighted greed.
ok, I have dug around a bit, the shop on fire in the images on twitter is on Eglington Street, according to google approx. number 469 on the A77. If you use google streetview, you will see it being used as of May 2014, the location to help you since google’s addressing is a bit suspect, it’s just to the west of Cardwell Street on the south side of the street. Someone else will have to investigate further, however it has been suggested it wasn’t a Yes shop but a derelict shop covered in Yes posters. If so it must have been abandoned since May 2014.
Eglinton Street sorry
And all the bookie does to hedge for the unlikely event of having to pony up the winnings if it’s NO, is set odds to attract enough YES bets to offset this payoff.
That’s why the odds for a YES win are higher.
But it has absolutely nothing to do with the actualy probability of either YES or NO.
The bookmaker simply adjusts ODDS based upon how much money is being received for each type of bet so that the bookie will always make a profit.
Someone already spoke to the owner of the shop and it seems he’s okay. The outside of the shop got the worst of it, so the inside has no long lasting damage. I’d assume smoke probably the worst of it inside.
Les Wilson
Of course it is a staged bet but not necessarily by one of J M Funnies organisations.
All it needs is 5 or 6 of Dave’s mates wanting to join him in the H of L dropping. £ 200,000 into the pot and it is done. The odds are fixed.
Remember the collapse of the no SNP vote in 2012 and the bookies paying out before the election result?
No more this time, by fixing the odds but they will lose.
Remember these aerolsoles will bet that on two flies crawling up a wall.
They have nothing to lose and £200 K is chimp change for them. They spend more than that on their wine cellar.
Les Wilson
Of course it is a staged bet but not necessarily by one of H M Funnies organisations.
All it needs is 5 or 6 of Dave’s mates wanting to join him in the H of L dropping. £ 200,000 into the pot and it is done. The odds are fixed.
Remember the collapse of the no SNP vote in 2012 and the bookies paying out before the election result?
No more this time, by fixing the odds but they will lose.
Remember these aerolsoles will bet that on two flies crawling up a wall.
They have nothing to lose and £200 K is chimp change for them. They spend more than that on their wine cellar.
Thanks BB, I discovered the bit on fire belonged to the shop next door and couldn’t find out if it was still trading or not. The flat above definitely looked occupied though, so a particularly stupid and dangerous thing for someone to do. I hope it was just mindless and nothing more directed and organised than that.
link to news.sky.com
Maybe Murphy’s OWN mob had a hand in it, like the Unionist Egger..or would that not fit in with Murphy’s ridiculous agenda ?
This guy needs lifted for inciting social disorder.
The fire was apparently started with a wheelie bin full of stuff lit up and pushed into it. Low down thugs. It’s possible the Yes branding was aggravating factor to inspire them to burn that shop. The potential harm of such an act shouldn’t be a mystery to any adult or almost all teens these days. At least no one was hurt in the end, thank goodness. That’s the most important part.
Last Christmas I gave the 5 members of my family a betting slip for a Yes victory. Total cost about £100. They will each win about the same amount based on the then odds. They will also win everything from an independent Scotland. And I win ‘cos I know they have a little edge to get out, vote and promote Yes, not that thankfully any one of them needs that. So unlike this hapless No punter, wins all round. Sorry William Hill lose if only that their former boss (Ralph Topping) came out big time for Yes but I’m sure they can bear it, making up any losses from plonkers who’ve bet thousands on No.
Well said Gerry Parker 🙂 Following my usual summer sunday routine, I tuned into rte radio 1 for the live coverage of the gaelic sports action in dublin : today, the much-fancied dubs (dublin) were playing donegal in the all-ireland senior football championship semi-final for the right to play kerry in the final. due to their blistering hot form of the past 3 seasons, the dubs were incredibly strong favourites, quoted at 1/10 with most bookies. had the ulstermen been paying any attention to the odds, they might as well not have turned up. however, donegal used this as prime motivation and went off into the isolation of their training camp to focus, practise and prepare to leave it all out there, with ‘honesty’ in performance being their modest, collective mantra. after a shaky start, they comprehensively beat the dubs by 6 points and restricted the much-vaunted dublin forward line to no goals – a major achievement in itself. not only did the donegal senior team win easily, the donegal minor team (u-18) also beat their strongly fancied opponents earlier in the day at the same venue. it often happens that people in major metropolitan hubs do not pay enough attention to developments elsewhere, nor do they even seem to learn from similar previous errors (donegal beat dublin in the 1992 senior football final in similar circumstances). i do feel there is a lesson in hope and pragmatism here for us all to smile at, dear readers and 800,000 reasons for our poor metropolitan person to worry ; they really have no idea what is coming down the track and they haven’t even bothered planning for defeat. meanwhile, let’s just do everything to win the final now 🙂
There is something dodgy about that report from William Hills the bookies.
The same individual has placed three separate bets for a total gamble of £800,000. However, I reckon that WH’s rules will oblige them to regard all this money as one bet, and so the maximum that they will pay out will be £100,000 ! (That is their max payout for political bets.)
Thus it is not a good return on the gambler’s bet, unless of course he is more interested in altering the Yes/No odds than actually winning money…
gerry parker,
“I’ve a few wee bets placed at different bookies on a Yes.
When I win, I’m going to take the winnings into the local food bank, lay them on the counter and ask.
What do you want me to buy with this and I’ll drop along later with it+ a receipt for your records.”
A very noble thought!
@gerry parker
You’re a true gent, gerry.
A poster above mentioned Donegal beating Dublin in 1992 against all the odds predicted by bookies. Well, Donegal beat Dublin again today against all predictions from bookies and everybody else, so maybe a good omen for Scotland!
If i were putting £800,000 on No, i would have a saver bet on Yes to minimise any damage in the event of a Yes, the huge difference in price for Yes would help soften the blow.
£100,000 on red in smaller bets at say 4/1 would more than halve the liability in the event the big bet failed but still allow a narrow profit margin if it was no.
Saying that, if i had £900,000 to put on a bet…i simply wouldn’t !!
Brother-in-law (City of London) phoned last week and before I passed the phone to his sister, asked what was going on up here and what did I think was going to happen in the Referendum.
When I told him what I thought was about to happen, he replied, “I knew it, these daft Bs down here are all putting money on No. They just don’t understand what it’s about. It better happen Joe, I’ve got money on a Yes win and I can’t wait to see their faces”.
@Gerry Parker
Like you, I have been putting my weekly £2 on a Yes win for the last 5 weeks. May as well transfer some of that obscene London money to my local Foodbank. I should have over £90 for them to buy necessities with on the 19th.
Priceless …or …well …maybe not.
Reminds me of an episode on Dragon’s Den where one entrepreneur had invested something like £500,000 in a bid to make his product a million pound invention.
Can just remember Duncan Bannatyne and wee Theo’s jaw hitting the floor. Quite rightly, the guy was annihilated for spending vast sums of money on 1. A product that was never going to sell, and 2. for already being wealthy enough that he was chasing something that he already was!
My missus asked me on Saturday to put £100 on a YES vote, our local bookie (Coylton – South Ayrshire) took the bet but only after a call to head office to confirm, he said the odds were cut to 10/3 from 9/2 last week. He also said it’s only the second bet he has taken on the referendum, and the first one was months ago when he was in an Ayr branch.
I am just back from weekend down in Liverpool. Down there they aren’t interested in the referendum here.
Bur my question is.
How come the police in London can catch George Galloway’s attacker YET the cops up here can’t catch the clown who egged Murphy, even though there are clear pictures of him all over the internet and in Kirkcaldy High St. there are an abundance of CCTV cameras?
I am just a wee bit angry.