A good day to bury bad news
This story was on the front page of the Scotsman website when we were checking the papers at 7am. It’s now not only vanished from the front page, but from every index we can find. We tried finding it with the site’s Search function using the words in the headline, but none of them bring it up.
We eventually managed to locate it via Google, hidden two-thirds of the way down the Business page, but in case it gets deleted for good, you can find it below.
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Next Chancellor must cut deeply, economists warn
By PETER RANSCOMBE
Published on 23/05/2013 00:00WHOEVER wins the next general election will have to make deeper public sector cuts in order to avoid a “financial crisis” in which international money markets lose confidence in Britain, economists will warn today.
Measures introduced by Chancellor George Osborne in March’s Budget will help the economy to grow but will also mean that the deficit reduces more slowly, according to the Centre for Economic & Business Research (CEBR).
The think tank now believes the economy will grow by 0.9 per cent this year, compared with its previous estimate in February of 0.5 per cent, while 2014 will bring growth of 1.4 per cent instead of 1.2 per cent.
Douglas McWilliams, chief economist at the CEBR, said: “The good news is a welcome return to growth for the UK economy.
“The bad news is that the relaxation of the Chancellor’s austerity programme risks a ?financial crisis. And the chances of this happening would get higher if the markets think that the government after the next election gives reduced priority to getting the deficit down.”
McWilliams’ comments came a day after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) used its annual report on the UK to call for the coalition to boost infrastructure spending in order to stimulate faster economic growth.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also showed public borrowing rose to £10.2 billion in April from £8.9bn a year earlier.
The coalition had aimed to eliminate the deficit by 2015 but has been forced to push its forecasts back by two years due to weak economic growth.
Separate ONS data showed UK retail sales fell by 1.3 per cent in April, with economists warning that – even with the cold weather and Easter falling in March this year – the UK economy “isn’t out of the woods yet”.
The CBI’s monthly industrial trends survey revealed that confidence is continuing to grow among manufacturing businesses, with output expected to grow strongly over the next three months.
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For some curious reason, the story isn’t being presented as a blow to the “Stay in the UK” campaign in the independence debate. The headline isn’t “Business calls for more austerity if Scots vote No”. There is no demand for Alistair Darling or Michael Moore to answer the difficult questions about the uncertainty over the future of the economy under Westminster control which arise from the warning.
Odd, that.
If we don’t cut, cut and cut, and cut even more we will never be Better Together.
I think this reminds me that now is a very good time to choose independence.In the early days of independence,a wave of confidence and optimism and ambition will sweep over Scotland.The economic climate around the globe will mean that our ambitions are tempered a wee bit with a realisation that we’re best to move the country forward resolutely and sure footedly.Everyone together.
It goes to show that Gordo is right! We cannot allow the poor Liverpool granny to suffer alone the omni-shambles that is Westminster, we must gamely stand beside her and suffer too. We may be some time.
Rev. This is not Off-Thread but a totally relevant comment on the above.
The UK deficit still is a positive number. Therefore the total UK debt increases continuously. This debt either is repaid or defaulted upon or the interest payments continue for ever thus increasing the total UK debt for ever.
I cannot see any politically acceptable solution in a democracy.
The UK is broke and shall remain so for a very long time.
Time to seriously think of the futures for Scotland…. oblivion or disconnection from the mess…
This is in my opinion the core argument for Independence.
They really are going to have some problems presenting that positive case for the union. Stay attached to Westminster and help us pay for a monumental screw up our management of the country helped bring about.
Independence could solve all our problems because it would make Westminster sit down and assess it’s position. They would probably have to scrap their Trident plans and save the country £100bn it cannot afford to spend on such a foolish venture. If Westminster and the BoE are sensible and don’t cut their noses of to spite their smug faces then a currency union would help the economy, it could lead to negotiations with the EU getting better deals which suit both countries.
It would not be the end of Britain but it could be the start of a better Britain, a Britain where there is more money and better services as the British would be asking Westminster why we can’t do what the Scots are achieving, you told us they were scroungers?
In fairness though its not like they planned the distraction.
My thoughts and sympathies to the soldiers family -truly a horrible crime.
Robert Kerr
“This debt either is repaid or defaulted upon or the interest payments continue for ever thus increasing the total UK debt for ever.
I cannot see any politically acceptable solution”
Quantatative easing buying bond issues to cover interest payments on bond issues seem to be Gideon’s answer. A Ponzi scheme with a magic printing press, and it’s us that are being Ponzied
It will be our children and their children that reap this whirlwind.
I wonder who told them to pull that.
So sticking with the UK will mean guaranteed higher taxes and cuts to services…
Compared to Scotlands chance to actually maintain where we are at righ now with Independence…
Decisions, decisions…
Doctor CEBR, doctor CEBR, the patient is bleeding to death.
Calm down, I am CEBR and I have more leaches.
Here is a lecture given by CEBR founder, Professor Douglas McWilliams. It regards his analysis of the shift in global economic activity from west to east, in which he assess the largely western corporate colonisation of the far east, as being generally positive for society. I think this guy would support using China as a measure of progress. It is a bit turgid, as well. As Robert Kerr says, “I cannot see any politically acceptable solution in a democracy”.
link to youtube.com
Vote Yes to give yourself the best possible protection against free-trade neo-liberals.
I think that you will find the new Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, is quietly sounding major QE exercise which would make the £ STG sink like a stone in the Money Markets but would inflate away a proportion of this unrepayable accumulation of debt.
Serious thought to a very dangerous and politically suicidal policy that could set the seeds for a popular insurrection as everything imported jumps in cost, petrol, feed, feedstuffs, cars and everything else that Thatcher ensured we no longer make.
Time to get out and ASAP.
I can see why it’s no longer front page news, but why was it hidden?
Ignorance is bliss.
A comparable headline would be “Economy will deteriorate if Scots remain in union warns economist”.
Interesting, it seems that they’ve removed links to the article on the site – but the article is still indexed by Bing: link to scotsman.com
Yup, you can still comment on the story it if anyone can find it …
link to scotsman.com
“For some curious reason, the story isn’t being presented as a blow to the “Stay in the UK” campaign in the independence debate. The headline isn’t “Business calls for more austerity if Scots vote No””
I’ve been reading this site for a while now, and I mostly agree with what you say, the one thing I would say is the reason for this could also be attributed to the fact that no-one from Yes Scotland or SNP are jumping up and down screaming about it. A lot of the time the media don’t bother themselves with making a reasoned argument from facts, they just report people talking whatever nonsense they feel like. This is not to say I don’t think the media has a bias, its just that it’s unfair to say they’re not reporting when there may be nothing to report on. So lets have someone politician make the statement you’re talking about and complain only if that isn’t reported.
Perhaps Beggared Together would be a more fitting name for the No campaign.
Sadly, it has so far been my experience that my colleagues react, by and large, with indifference when shown how we in Scotland have not received the benefit of our advantageous economic circumstances. I have little hope that illustrating the future Scotland is facing as part of the UK will be met with any serious concern. I often wonder why so many people seem not to care about our economic future. I’m sure they would look differently on the matter if the Chancellor was personally to remove the money directly from their wallets.
@TMFDM.
Maybe it’s because the folk you are speaking to are (work) colleagues?
It’s the unemployed and disadvantaged we need to reach. Folk that are doing ok might be more wary of taking the step.
Unfortunately, the folk most likely to benefit from independence are living in Labour fiefdoms. They are the folk we need to reach.
@Juteman
My colleagues are some of the inhabitants of these Labour fiefdoms, which is why I am worried. Living in Edinburgh on the salary we are paid is just about doable, and no more. These are people (amongst whom I count myself) who would stand to gain the most from the improved pay and conditions that independence will enable us to achieve. Without the working-class vote, the referendum won’t be won. So we need to enthuse them about the long-term potential for improvement in their own circumstances.
P.S. Feel free to address me as @Del Monte; it took me a moment to work out TMFDM was me!
This link may help to explain why John “not a bullet fired in anger in Aghanistan” Reid was all over the air waves last night.
John Reid, the security industry’s salesman in the House of Lords:
link to opendemocracy.net
@Del Monte.
The folk you work with are doing ok, just, so they are naturally worried about how independence will affect them. If you are just managing to make ends meet, then every decision is a gamble. It can be scary to take that step if you are struggling financialy. You need to convince them the biggest gamble is staying in the bankrupt uk.
The ‘vanished’ and non voting slaves to Labour are the real winners, if only they could be informed.
Thats correct Juteman, some, perhaps many of the people with jobs, especially half secure ones, some with property, with savings and with good pensions in the bag, simply are not interested in how the economy is disproportionately and negatively impacting on the poor, sick vulnerable and disabled who might not have jobs, savings, property or pensions…and yes, the people that feel left behind, disenfranchised and scuppered are the ones we need to reach to go out and exercise their right to choose between more of the same or a chance to have at the least, access to jobs and good healthcare and decent wages and good housing etc…
I think any party in place within an Independent Scotland, will need to pull their socks up, manage everything with impeccable precision and cut the lies that normally envelops the political climate these days. Otherwise they’ll have me to answer to…and lots and lots of other folk as well I hope!!
Get the Yes troops into the 1.000s of folk who aren’t even on the electoral register. That’s where a win lies.
Mind you, most of them are probably already on the electoral register and vote Labour on a postal vote without even knowing they do.
@Kevin, how do you know no-one from YES is saying anything? If they’re issuing press releases and nobody’s reporting it are you any the wiser?
My condolences to the soldier’s bereaved family but….
i smell shite!
link to scriptonitedaily.wordpress.com
Hail Alba!