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A fundamental misunderstanding

Posted on March 25, 2015 by

Because almost nobody in Westminster, whether they’re politicians or the media, ever pays any attention to anything outside SW1A, Alex Salmond’s comment in London yesterday that the SNP would vote against any Tory government in the event of a hung Parliament – which to any Scottish person was news as surprising as a weather forecast for rain – has been greeted with seemingly-genuine shock and horror.

snpthreat

Reporter after reporter has treated the non-revelations (which have been official SNP policy for as long as we can remember, and were stated explicitly by Nicola Sturgeon in November) as a stunning bolt from the blue, and Tory politicians and the right-wing media alike have burst into frothing, spluttering rage, based on the fact that apparently none of them grasps how either the UK electoral system or basic arithmetic work.

The vice-chairman of the Conservative Party said the long-standing pledge represented “a deeply sinister threat”, while the Daily Mail columnist Jonathan Brocklebank furiously accused Salmond of trying to “foist his Jocko revolution on the rest of us”, among an outpouring of similar sentiments.

The most interesting, though, was an unnamed spokesTory quoted in several outlets:

“Alex Salmond has confirmed he would sabotage the democratic will of the British people to make Ed Miliband prime minister.”

And that’s a rather odd thing to say, because the tool “Alex Salmond” (the UK press don’t really seem to have registered that the SNP is no longer led by the former First Minister) plans to deploy to this end is, er… the democratic will of British citizens, expressed via the impeccably conventional means of the ballot box.

abacus

On all current polling, it seems unlikely that either the Tories or Labour are going to secure much over 33% of the vote. That means that two-thirds of the population DON’T want David Cameron as Prime Minister. The twist, obviously, is that just as many don’t want Ed Miliband as Prime Minister either.

And therefore, neither Cameron nor Miliband getting unchecked power quite clearly IS the “democratic will of the British people”. If the British people democratically willed either man to have a majority, the system is designed to do everything in its power to make that happen. (Tony Blair managed it comfortably with just 35.2% in 2005.)

Scotland is still part of the UK. Both Cameron and Miliband fervently wished it to be so, and fought hard and dirtily to make sure it stayed that way. Neither of them has any place bleating about the impact of Scottish votes on UK democracy, because they’re responsible for the UK still including Scotland.

And perhaps more to the point, they’re both also responsible for the fact that the British public doesn’t much want to vote for either of them, even when threatened and bullied and cajoled into it by an electoral system that’s massively skewed towards the Labour and Tory leaders.

(Goodness knows how much further the “main” parties’ votes would fall if the UK parliament was elected by a fair system of proportional representation that allowed people to meaningfully vote for the parties they really wanted, rather than the polarising perversion of democracy that is FPTP, which pushes them towards the “big two” and then renders most votes worthless anyway.)

bathvote

Labour and the Conservatives are so used to commanding absolute power despite being opposed by most of the electorate that they seem to have forgotten that 33% of anything isn’t a majority. Regardless of the specifics of the SNP’s politics, if they can remind them both of that fact this May they’ll have performed a massive democratic service to the population of the entire UK.

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  1. 25 03 15 12:41

    A fundamental misunderstanding | Speymouth
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  2. 25 03 15 17:04

    A fundamental misunderstanding | Politics Scotl...
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116 to “A fundamental misunderstanding”

  1. gillie
    Ignored
    says:

    “Alex Salmond has confirmed he would sabotage the democratic will of the British people to make Ed Miliband prime minister.”

    Now that is a keeper.

  2. Betty Boop
    Ignored
    says:

    Aye, the electoral system is only fair if you vote Tory or Lab, so thing Tory and Lab. Turn the coin, it is the same on both sides under this parliamentary system.

    Methinks they are stuck in a corner; FPTP may fail them this time and they daren’t go for proportional representation.

    Popcorn anyone ? 🙂

  3. icyspark
    Ignored
    says:

    Vote Power in Lanark & Hamilton East is 0.048 WTF

    The average UK voter has 5.26x more voting power than voters in Lanark & Hamilton East.

    Constituency marginality is classed as Ultra safe! HAHA. Not for long Labour! 🙂

  4. Chic Thomson
    Ignored
    says:

    ‘Better Together’
    Suck it up boys, suck it up !

  5. Noel Chidwick
    Ignored
    says:

    Thanks Stuart – you’ve just re-assured me that I’m not insane.

    When I heard the frothing at the mouth reporting of Alex Salmond’s comments, all I thought was that he was just stating that members of one party in the HoC would not be voting to support another party in the HoC – isn’t that how it works? Why is this news?

    So it’s not me, it’s not you, it’s the frightened Establishment and their mouthpieces in the media who are trying to stir it.

    They don’t like this democracy thing, do they?

  6. ghostly606
    Ignored
    says:

    Good post. I love being undemocratically democratic.

    According to that site Dundee East is “very marginal” apparently. Not convinced that Mr Hosie is particularly worried.

  7. Patrick Roden
    Ignored
    says:

    Brilliant Stu,

    And I would take it back one level and point out, that it is the Big Money/Elite, who are behind a lot of this froth.

    This elite, has had the Con/Lab/Dems in their pockets for the last couple of decades, being able to exert more and more influence over them.

    This was to most of the voting publics detriment, but since the dumbing down of peoples political awareness, the elite have got away with it.

    Now that they have the political class dangling like puppets on a string, they are furious that the SNP and other uppity Jocks, are spoiling it for them.

    Socialism!!! Fairness!!!

    Who the bloody hell do we think we are?

    haha 🙂

  8. DaiAbolic
    Ignored
    says:

    For Cameron, Milligan and Clean it really is turning into “You reap what you sow”
    We Scots (and like myself a fellow Welsh UK resident who lives in Scotland) are still in the UK, and should have a say in UK politics, what is their problem with that?

  9. Macart
    Ignored
    says:

    So sabotage the democratic will of the British people by using the democratic will of the British people…

    … wait what?

    Has that spokesTory fella been drinking?

    He does know how his own political system works doesn’t he? And surely he’s aware that he and his chums spent two years begging the Scots to stay and participate?

    So metrocentric fuckwittery aside, what we are looking at is either criminal ignorance, criminal dishonesty or more likely a great steaming pile of both.

  10. GM_Dundonian
    Ignored
    says:

    But.. You wanted us to stay! Hands across the border and all that Jazz.

    Y U No love us anymore -sobs-

    What’s that? Only if we shut up, and eat our cereal? No thanks, I’m kina sick to death of Labour Fruit Loops.

  11. Fiona MacInnes
    Ignored
    says:

    On Radio 2 Moira Stewart said Alex Salmond would ‘sabotage the will of the British people’ by voting against a Tory budget. Raging at BBC bias again and willful political ignorance/misinformation of the media

  12. Mary Vasey
    Ignored
    says:

    Excellent post.
    Thanks for the info, which I tried out re Aberdeen North, which has always been Labor, not for much longer though. Was amazed to find that, almost 58% of our votes are discounted even though we did not vote labour- aye – democracy in action.
    Vote SNP aye

  13. Helena Brown
    Ignored
    says:

    Excellent, we work in a democratic fashion and we are the baddies. Had a laugh at Dunfermline, seems we are as irrelevant as everyone else, 0.051 voter power, we definitely need PR.

  14. David Wardrope
    Ignored
    says:

    0.048 for me, but I have a sneeky feeling my miniscule influence will help oust Jimmy the Hood in May 🙂

  15. Training Day
    Ignored
    says:

    Oh, the irony of the paper which endorsed Fascism in the 1930s bleating about losing their ‘democracy’.

  16. Luigi
    Ignored
    says:

    If the tories fail to win 50% of the seats at the GE, it’s hardly the “democratic will” of the people for the tories to rule as a minority????????

    More tory bluff and bluster. We are winning at their own game, according to their own rules, so now they want their ball back. Better Together means that the people of Scotland will have a say in who governs them. Better get used to it.

  17. Sean McNulty
    Ignored
    says:

    More evidence that the London political and media elite are not just arrogant, vicious and out of touch with reality, but also embarrassingly behind the times. The overall effect is a weird one, like your bullying CEO turning up to work in unironic deely boppers and red braces and expecting you not to laugh at them as he screams in your face about what a trendsetter he is.

  18. Bob Mack
    Ignored
    says:

    Therefore the natural conclusion you have to draw from this statement is that the Conservatives are more or less appealing to racism among the English electorate, by claiming to protect Democracy from the vile Scots .St Georges flags at the ready chaps!!
    Damn those Johnny foreigners.

  19. Macart
    Ignored
    says:

    @ Noel Chidwick

    No, that’s pretty much it in a nutshell. The establishment didn’t think they’d have to face a fight twice in the same year… They were wrong.

    They have no one to blame but themselves though. Their tactics during the referendum almost guaranteed that two things would happen – 1. They would polarise the voting intent north of the border and 2. They would piss off a sizeable chunk of the population.

    The tactic of we love you, but you’re crappy no hopers with a penchant for subsidy. Who knew that would provoke a reaction? All they did, using these tactics, was delay the inevitable and ensure that a fair chunk of the neighbour’s population were well and truly motivated.

  20. msean
    Ignored
    says:

    Campaigned for a no vote? Want Scotland to be part of a family of nations? OK,but remember,campaigning for a no vote may have consequencies.

  21. Devereux
    Ignored
    says:

    The Tory hierarchy don’t believe it is undemocratic any more than you or me.

    In England it scares people off voting Labour and in Scotland it allows voters who hate the Tories to vote SNP instead of the mythical SLAB.

    Murdoch’s two Suns lifts a kilt on their strategy – they have Labour’s nuts in their hands.

    Short term win for them if it works. Long term win for us because it shows that when the chips are down the Tories don’t care about losing Scotland any more…….and a contempt for English voters too, for that matter.

    Popcorn indeed!!

  22. Marie clark
    Ignored
    says:

    Why is it considered against the will of the British people? I thought we were all supposed to be British, all in it together.

    We elect the people that we wish to represent the interests of Scotland,democratically, at the ballot box. FPTP is their rules.

    Okay so we play by their rules and somehow we are undemocratic. EH!. If they don’t like it, they should have let us go when we wanted to. But no, they had to interfere and used every lie and dirty trick in the book to get us to stay.

    It would appear that now, they don’t want us. Boo hoo. You should always be careful what you wish for. TWATS, the bliddy lot o’ them.

  23. Dandy Dons 1903
    Ignored
    says:

    They wanted us to stay, so whats the problem? What comes around goes around!

  24. it's me
    Ignored
    says:

    Here is the full glory of the democratic deficit that is FPTP.

    The conservative strategy to win the election is to change the votes of 11,200 voters in 23 constituencies in order to give them a majority.

    As stated by Grant Schapps/Michael Green/Sebastian Whatsit on Newsnight on the 5th March – starting at 19:20

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b054q643/newsnight-05032015

    The rest of us don’t matter.

  25. K1
    Ignored
    says:

    They’ll be begging us to get tae soon enough 🙂 Which we will…on our terms. 🙂

    GIRUTFLOT.

  26. Doug Daniel
    Ignored
    says:

    “the polarising perversion of democracy that is FPTP”

    I remember Nicola saying recently that we could do our best to sort out the UK’s problems before we leave, sort of like a goodwill parting gesture or something. Changing the voting system really does need to be top of that list, and it’s absolutely shameful that the Lib Dems didn’t make it a red line in 2010. Never mind dumping student fees, which was essentially just a policy commitment – proportional representation was meant to be absolutely fundamental to Lib Dem philosophy.

    If we want the next parliament to highlight just how much Labour and the Tories stick together on things – and we definitely do want that – then watching the two of them stand together to back FPTP while every other party in the parliament backs PR would be a fine way of doing it.

  27. rog_rocks
    Ignored
    says:

    I think the main reason for their perceived fear and outbursts are to scare the English electorate from voting for Labour. The Tories are in charge of the MSM and am sure they’re in charge of the Labour party too and they will use their employees to achieve a tory win and I think if the Tories win with minority rule at Westminster it is Labour they will be asking to join them in an anti-Scottish alliance. Am also quite sure the Labour lackies will oblige too, anything for a sniff of power.

    In my view if this happens then a UDI could be our only response.

    I wonder if this happens if the UK government cohort Carmichael will disappear south across the border, hopefully, along with a few of his buddies.

  28. garles
    Ignored
    says:

    That Bath figure must be wrong:

    1 particular vote in Bath = 100000 votes somewhere else

  29. galamcennalath
    Ignored
    says:

    Without a doubt, democracy is the greatest threat to the Establishment and the London elite.

    They hate democracy. They fear voters actually exercising their will

    This has nothing explicitly to do with the SNP, nor any particular part of the UK. However, the SNP look like the most likely catalyst for change.

  30. gerry parker
    Ignored
    says:

    Depressing results.

    The average UK voter has 50x more voting power than voters in Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill.

    In Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill, one person does not really have one vote, they have the equivalent of 0.004 votes.

  31. K1
    Ignored
    says:

    Aye msean, there’s the well kent saying…one should never forget…don’t shit on your own doorstep.

    That about covers the entire msm in Scotland during the campaign.

    But more saliently describes the Labour branch in Scotland’s entire unprincipled stance during the same period.

    Were we are going, they are not welcome.

  32. Dr Jim
    Ignored
    says:

    The English are the British and the British are the English
    The Scots are only..well ..the Scots
    Since when should the Scots have any say in Britland or Engle land
    In the Big Country, which is Englebritland we the Englebrits have all rights and titles to the name Britain or United Kingdom or even Great Britain because we like lots of titles

    Remember the queens mum, she had queen in her title twice

    Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother

    The Englebrits are an important Nation to ourselves and we will defend our right to be racist about everybody else
    One day we Englebrits will be as one with the Americans and then we will re-conquer them, for their own good of course
    The absolute power to bomb all before us will be unquestionable and undisputed… Bwaa ha ha ha ha

    Red Alert….man with white coat outside…

  33. Dandy Dons 1903
    Ignored
    says:

    If England doesnt like it, it should go for independence and stop hanging on the coat-tails of its cashcow northern neighbour.

  34. Fiona
    Ignored
    says:

    galamcennalath says:
    25 March, 2015 at 12:06 pm
    Without a doubt, democracy is the greatest threat to the Establishment and the London elite.

    They hate democracy. They fear voters actually exercising their will

    This has nothing explicitly to do with the SNP, nor any particular part of the UK. However, the SNP look like the most likely catalyst for change.

    This

  35. heraldnomore
    Ignored
    says:

    Apparently the average UK voter has a massive 7.69 times more power than me; and EK is an Ultra Safe constituency. Why is the incumbent bricking it, his cooncillors refusing to canvas, and his dirty tricks campaign in full swing?

    Ultra Safe – does this site know the state of play in Jockland?

  36. galamcennalath
    Ignored
    says:

    Dr Jim says:
    “In the Big Country, which is Englebritland we the Englebrits have all rights and titles to the name Britain or United Kingdom or even Great Britain”

    Indeed. Caveat first, we can’t paint a whole nation with the same brush. That said, an awful lot of our southern neighbours are expressing an awful lot of extremist political and xenophobic language these days!

  37. AndyC
    Ignored
    says:

    Quote from Boris Nemtsov before he was politically assassinated in Moscow “We don’t do elections in Russia, only manipulations”

    That same quote SO applies to this shithole of a ‘democracy’ whether it is an ‘election’ or a ‘referendum’

  38. Capella
    Ignored
    says:

    Scotsman article actually allows Alec to state it himself:
    “The Tories would have to go straight effectively for a vote of confidence – usually the Queen’s Speech, although it could be otherwise, and we’d be voting against,” said Mr Salmond. “So if Labour joins us in that pledge, then that’s Cameron locked out.
    “And then under the (Fixed-Term) Parliaments Act that the Westminster parliament’s passed but nobody seems to have read, you’d then have a two-week period to form another government – and of course you want to form another government because this might be people’s only chance to form another government.”

    https://archive.today/Nb43r#selection-2507.0-2513.305

  39. Murray McCallum
    Ignored
    says:

    As the LibDems have voluntary trashed their own party, the ConLab political cartel are desperately trying to destroy the SNP.

    The SNP are the only viable political threat to the establishment cartel. People who desire change in Scotland have a clear choice.

    I see my vote is worth 0.073. This is why I hate FPTP.

  40. Macart
    Ignored
    says:

    Suppose it goes without saying that these people are looking to provoke negative reactions with their Scotophobic rants right?

    They don’t care who or how many get hurt, its what they do and how they operate. Just business and they’re in the business of doing business.

    Best response? Laugh your arse off at them and get determined. Hatred is their game, not ours.

  41. Now's the Hour
    Ignored
    says:

    Why are Westminster and the Saxon meeja obsessed with a backbench Holyrood MSP?

    Looks like their own Project Fear has turned on them and now they are having to contend with that thing called ‘democracy’. What a shame.

    Six weeks and counting…tick tock

  42. Kev
    Ignored
    says:

    Wow apparently my vote is not a vote at all, its just 1/43rd of one, feeling all giddy with democratic empowerment

  43. john king
    Ignored
    says:

    Anyone else getting “sorry no results found” for their their postcode or constituency. I don’t exist

  44. Dandy Dons 1903
    Ignored
    says:

    Contrast all this behaviour now with the hysterical grovelling bleatings of the brits just before the indyref. They had far more to lose with Scottish independence than Scotland had namely revenue, very telling isnt it!

  45. ronald alexander mcdonald
    Ignored
    says:

    It’s ridiculous. How the hell can the bloody jocks influence a UK election?

    After all they’re really only a colony of England. We didn’t allow India the vote. Time to take it away from them.

  46. ronald alexander mcdonald
    Ignored
    says:

    It’s ridiculous. How the hell can the bloody jocks influence a UK election?

    After all they’re really only a colony of England. We didn’t allow India the vote. Time to take it away from them.

  47. Dandy Dons 1903
    Ignored
    says:

    No Voters you have been totally had.

  48. Capella
    Ignored
    says:

    Something terrible has happened to the Scotsman. Two decent articles today! Maybe that threat to make Rev the editor has worked wonders?
    “Vast Gulf Between Rich and Poor Scots Exposed”
    https://archive.today/WmfWL

  49. Sinky
    Ignored
    says:

    Just watched PMQs at Westminster and Alex Salmond got more mentions than anyone else.

    The Establishment is really bricking it.

  50. Dandy Dons 1903
    Ignored
    says:

    Nows the Hour…Thing about the english is they are not Saxon really they are culturally Germanized native Brytonnics, compare any englishman to a German and you will see a huge difference.

  51. asklair
    Ignored
    says:

    For years I have seen how we are ruled by a minority of corrupt people, is this the beginning of the end of this system or a false new dawn. This web site in my opinion reflects the views of many on this islands of many nations, MSM are not amused though.

  52. Bugger (the Panda)
    Ignored
    says:

    Fiona says:
    25 March, 2015 at 12:14 pm
    Fiona and galamcennalath says:

    25 March, 2015 at 12:06 pm

    Without a doubt, democracy is the greatest threat to the Establishment and the London elite.

    They hate democracy. They fear voters actually exercising their will

    The current meme in World politics is that of generating fear amongst the voters, in each national election.

    Netanyu used it at the last minute in Israel, having seen how well it worked during the Scottish Referendum, various US Presidential candidates have used it and it has achieved an artistic level of practice in Oz. Hollande will roll it out in France against the Front National, Merkel is using the visceral fear of inflation in the German psyche to boot 7 colours of Keich out of Greece and control the Eurobank, to keep the Euro down and German exports cheaper.

    We should not fear politicians, they should fear us and that is where we are in Scotland vis a vis Westminster.

    The Establishment has started to feel lower stomach rumbles.

    We are close to getting them on the runs.

  53. crazycat
    Ignored
    says:

    @ John King

    Did you use the word “and” rather than an ampersand? I tried that and got the same result as you (different constituency though), and when my post code did return a result,I discovered what the problem was.

    If your post code doesn’t work either, that’s odd.

  54. Illy
    Ignored
    says:

    VoterPower is doing something wierd with the maths.

    It seems that constituency size is dominating, as the 10th most powerful seat, Edinburgh South, has stayed Labour for the last four elections.

    I’m not worried about them not showing all of Scotland to be marginal, as they’re claiming to only work from past election results for their ratings, but it seems that their ratings are purely dependent on constituency size.

  55. Fiona
    Ignored
    says:

    I can understand the tory strategy: they are obviously angry that the SNP will not even consider supporting them, and it is imperative that they make the most of that in whatever way they can, since an absolute majority is the only way they can govern. And they have no options at all in Scotland so it is logical they concentrate on rUK, no matter the effect on scottish voters

    I cannot understand the labour strategy, however. I get that they fell for their own narrative and initially believed that this was temporary/Murphy would turn it around etc. And so attacking the SNP made sense and the way they did it looked plausible. But by now even they must know that this is not working, and that their only chance of government (assuming the polls are correct) is to accept support from the SNP as minority party, as the tories did with the lib dems. True they cannot get a coalition, but the arithmetic does not change.

    They did not have to paint themselves into this corner: they could have been more, well, political in considering different possibilities and keeping their options open. It was not enough to sing dumb on coalition: they had to attack the tory strategy of painting them as puppets. They could have done that. They still have a platform, unlike the SNP, and they could at least have attempted to make the pragmatic case. Why didn’t they? If they believe that they would lose more votes in England by doing that then they have made a suspicion into a self fulfilling proposition. On these grounds alone they are not fit to govern

  56. Clootie
    Ignored
    says:

    …just watched PMQ’s 🙂

    Alex appears to have them terrified!

  57. Patrician
    Ignored
    says:

    @john king, we didn’t know how to tell you that, but we suspect that you haven’t existed for some time and you are just a figment of Irene’s imagination 😀

  58. Eckle Fechan
    Ignored
    says:

    Can you imagine the lads and lassies in the SLAB back-room right now? The air must be BLUE!

    Cue Chris Cairns – I eagerly await the next cartoon interlude to capture the mood of where we are currently in the campaign.

    ——————
    Believers 45, Collaborators 55.
    But the tide is turning and the dream shall never die.

  59. Thomas William Dunlop
    Ignored
    says:

    No rest for the unionists diggers

  60. YESGUY
    Ignored
    says:

    Brilliant couple of days.

    I have never laughed so much over politics since the Spitting image programmes.. The day begins with a lie or spin on the topic of Scotland. Everyone has a say. until voting day then shun the uppities.

    Got my huge leaflet from lIEbour and it’s full of shit. Everyone knows the score i know, but posting known lies through our postboxes is a bit daft after twitter and the web have ripped the pish out of them and their lies for weeks now.

    They are like a stuck record. Continually going over the same bit time and time again and we’re just not listening anymore.

    I have nothing but contempt for the lot of them.

    If Cameron offered SNP FFA/devomax for support i would be screaming to the SNP to take it. Sometimes you have to sup with the devil and the prize would be worth it.

    Imagine the shock when they realise what a rich wee country we really are and how much we have subsidised the rUK for decades. We would be independent in one term of office. Job done.

    Any hopes i had for the union went oot the window with the referendum. We know and we know THEY know , it’s only a matter of time.

    There you go England …. keep yer tory govt. No more sweaties causing panic and disruption to the ” british way” hahahaha.

    Come on Nichola, talk to Cameron and get us out of here before there is bugger all left of our resources.

    By the way

    Wee Eck is fairly winding them up . Love the guy. keeps the focus on him while Nichol does her stuff. 🙂 he’s the most clever politician out there and is running rings round the establishment. The English must see this. he’s not the bogeyman , he’s got the toffs spouting shite left right and center. they are making a balls up almost everyday. Every comment gives us more votes(SNP)

    bloody hero. 😀

  61. Davie Clark
    Ignored
    says:

    Beat this!

    In Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, one person does not really have one vote, they have the equivalent of 0.009 votes.

    The average UK voter has 33.33x more voting power than voters in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath.

    Lol 🙂

  62. HandandShrimp
    Ignored
    says:

    I do think the BBC missed a trick by not having an arrow pointing at Stewart with a flashing legend “An insurgent”

  63. chris kilby
    Ignored
    says:

    Salmond announces The Pope is a Catholic and bears do indeed shit in the woods shock!

  64. Capella
    Ignored
    says:

    OMG THREE readable Scotsman articles in ONE DAY! Is that the quota for the year maybe and they will return to form tomorrow. One Scott Macnab is the author of most so more power to his elbow.

    “Scotland Damaged as Top Students Driven Away”
    https://archive.today/s9n5u

  65. Michael Granados
    Ignored
    says:

    There doesn’t seem to be much genuine outrage once you discount the political/media froth. Is England buying this shite?

  66. Alba
    Ignored
    says:

    Current projections of ‘the democratic will of the British People’

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/oq57m5pascit7sc/GE2015_Predictions_15-03-25.png?dl=0

    No majority without SNP!

  67. Gary
    Ignored
    says:

    Is everything they say a lie?

  68. Tony Little
    Ignored
    says:

    @rog_rocks

    To add a little bit of icing to your cake. If in a scenario where the SNP has 45 seats, PC gain 10, Greens 5 (a 60 seat Progressive Alliance) and the Tories are the largest party, but well short of a majority without the PA support, if a tactical agreement was discussed with Eddy boy, might the Scottish Labour group of 12 or so decide “now’s the time to jump and take back Scottish Labour” leave the UK Labour party and Jim is Crowned king of all he surveys?

    That way he avoids the critisism of doing the dirty deed (he acted in the best interests of a Scotland he loves with all his heart) and opposed the dreaded Tories into the bargain.

    Doesn’t this election allow for all kinds of fantasy story lines?

  69. YESGUY
    Ignored
    says:

    Skockarooney.

    Some one darn Sarf has his finger on the pulse. Great article and simply put.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/why-snp-tide-wont-go-out-any-time-soon-love-nation-more-important-numbers

    Could this be the start of “better relations” with rUK.

    More like this please 🙂

  70. Macart
    Ignored
    says:

    @ Clootie

    Aye, it appears Mr Cochrane and his book suffered from premature publication.

    Ah’ll get ma coat.

  71. Pin
    Ignored
    says:

    0.264!!! You lucky sod. My vote is worth 0.047

  72. Iain Gray's Subway Lament
    Ignored
    says:

    “Is England buying this shite?”

    It’s making UKIP voters very excitable and more determined to vote for the kippers.

    However, the polls show it simply hasn’t been helping the tories since they started screaming about it weeks ago any more than Murphy’s shite about letting the tories in has been helping ‘scottish’ Labour.

    All it does is confirm to the public that both Labour and the tories can’t win on their own and are spending all their time whining about that fact.

  73. heraldnomore
    Ignored
    says:

    Presumably the meeja sooth of the border will be equally frothing at the mouth when the English Labour MPs also vote against said Speech? Or is that OK?

  74. Glamaig
    Ignored
    says:

    Doug Daniel @ 11:57
    proportional representation was meant to be absolutely fundamental to Lib Dem philosophy.

    Totally agree. That should have been a redline issue for them when entering coalition. They could have walked away from it if the Tories hadnt agreed, but no, they were too star struck at the prospect of actually being in power and and sold themselves down the river.

    Federalism was also one of their key policies, as expressed by Ming Campbel in a QT recently. Never heard a peep about that in 2 years of referendum campaign…

    then watching the two of them stand together to back FPTP while every other party in the parliament backs PR would be a fine way of doing it.

    The irony is that the SNP may have less clout at Westminster under PR than it could under FPTP.

    This is hilarious 🙂

  75. Tinto Chiel
    Ignored
    says:

    Just like us Jocks to use the wrong kind of democracy. Well, if the Establishment hadn’t lied and cheated to the max during the referendum, they wouldn’t be having to deal with our deviant interpretation of the voting process.

    Their referendum behaviour has come back to bite them big style. As a cynical Frenchman said when Napoleon disposed of an enemy after a bent show trial, “It was worse than a crime, it was a blunder.”

    They continue to blunder on, like a blindfolded man in a minefield.

    Keep up the good work. Best foot forward…

  76. Xaracen
    Ignored
    says:

    To paraphrase Conan the Barbarian,

    “To see my unionist enemies flee before me, and hear the lamentations of their media.”

    What’s not to like?

  77. handclapping
    Ignored
    says:

    @john king
    Would that it were true 😀
    Try Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath and find out how little you were worth.
    Now you can vote for the SNP’s Roger Mullin and be worth 58 million other “Brits”

    PS I Like Patrician’s thought; be nice to Irene !

  78. Robert Peffers
    Ignored
    says:

    Well then let’s make a few things crystal clear to these very badly educated people in the English part of The United Kingdom. Let us start with basic Geography.

    The Tory Mouthpiece blurts out, ““Alex Salmond has confirmed he would sabotage the democratic will of the British people to make Ed Miliband prime minister.”

    Alex Salmond does not threaten, “The British”, people’s democracy. He doesn’t even threated the United Kingdom’s democratic will. For the fact is there are five independent British Democracies and four of them are actually more democratic than that of the United Kingdom he thinks is Britain.

    The non-UK Republic of Ireland, The Bailiwicks of Jersey and Guernsey and the Isle of Man are under no threats from any voters, or politicians, from the United Kingdom. As for the bipartite United Kingdom’s four countries, these are neither democratic nor under attack by either Salmond, the SNP or the electorate of Scotland.

    This numptie exhibits all the signs of a semi-moronic, poorly educated, brainless, panic stricken, self preserving Hooray Henry of the worst possible type.

    Furthermore, if the numptie imagines a properly elected faction, (of any political leaning), from any of the United Kingdom’s four countries is a threat to democracy, what does he imagine the existing situation of a country with but a single member of the ruling party in the United Kingdoms legislature that doubles-up as the de facto parliament of England is if not extremely biased and undemocratic?

    The question is, why are not the media correcting these idiots when they wrongly use the term Britain and British when they mean United Kingdom or even England? Why also do they not question the wrongly used term of Country applied to the Kingdom, united or not? Could it be the media are as totally ignorant as the whole political boorach?

  79. Tam
    Ignored
    says:

    john king says:
    25 March, 2015 at 12:34 pm
    Anyone else getting “sorry no results found” for their their postcode or constituency. I don’t exist

    ========================================================

    I got the same till I put the space in my postcode (XX11XX didn’t work but XX1 1XX did).

  80. rog_rocks
    Ignored
    says:

    @ Tony Little

    🙂 Can you see them removing their 12 or so snouts from the trough?

  81. Iain Gray's Subway Lament
    Ignored
    says:

    Scotsman @TheScotsman · 7h 7 hours ago

    Scotland smiles better? Scots have been named the friendliest in the UK

    So much for the tabloids and their angry jock hordes waiting to run across the border and invade westminster.

    LOL

  82. jackie g
    Ignored
    says:

    Just saw that that nice mr Clarkson has been sacked 😉

    Rumour is that his replacement is eh Feck can’t remember his name?

    Annoying ginger bloke Chris somebody 😉

  83. Martin
    Ignored
    says:

    I looked at my vote power, Rev. Yours is 10x greater still only 0.23. G31 is only 0.02. Westminster however…0.5

  84. Jamie Arriere
    Ignored
    says:

    Ooh er…my vote is worth 0.675, 2.67x more voting power than the UK average.

    My troosers have just ripped right up the hems and my biceps have burst through my shirt — ROOOAAARRR!!

  85. Bob Mack
    Ignored
    says:

    I am .825 yippee

  86. caz-m
    Ignored
    says:

    Oh please Mr English Establishment, stop all this lovebombing, you are driving all thoughts of Independence from my head.

    Rule Britannia, Britannia rules the waves…!

  87. Johnny
    Ignored
    says:

    Yes Guy @ 1:28

    The writer of that New Statesman piece is Aidan Kerr. Unless he has gone on holiday or moved down south for work recently, he will be sitting somewhere in a 30 mile radius from myself as I type.

    So, sadly, it’s not quite a view from down south, more someone trying to give those New Statesman readers from down south a flavour of what makes some Yessers tick (though perhaps not some of the ‘Yes Left’, as he indicates).

  88. Jamie Arriere
    Ignored
    says:

    “I do think the BBC missed a trick by not having an arrow pointing at Stewart with a flashing legend “An insurgent””

    I reckon they’re a coin flip away from putting him in silhouette or pixellating his face

  89. Brian Doonthetoon
    Ignored
    says:

    Interesting comparison…

    Voter power in Dundee West 0.216
    The average UK voter has 1.18x more voting power than voters in Dundee West.

    Voter power in Dundee East 0.973
    Voters in Dundee East have 3.85x more voting power than the UK average.

    BTW: that site also suggests for Dundee West,

    Constituency marginality Fairly safe.

    I don’t think McGovern is “fairly safe”, going by the SNP’s canvassing returns onnyhoo.

  90. Robert Peffers
    Ignored
    says:

    My score on that wee swingy thingy was 0.009.
    And they wonder why I take every chance to shout about it.

  91. Muscleguy
    Ignored
    says:

    @Xaracen

    After Independence what say we employ the Rev to stay in Bath and make the site an aggregator of the lamentations of their media? Then we can drop in and marvel at the stupidity of PM Johnson and London Mayor Clarkson.

  92. Donald MacKenzie
    Ignored
    says:

    Could we check with the unnamed Tory source what he/she means by ‘British’ when he/she said, “Alex Salmond has confirmed he would sabotage the democratic will of the British people to make Ed Miliband prime minister.”

  93. Brian Doonthetoon
    Ignored
    says:

    Interesting comparison…

    Voter power in Dundee West 0.216
    The average UK voter has 1.18x more voting power than voters in Dundee West.

    Voter power in Dundee East 0.973
    Voters in Dundee East have 3.85x more voting power than the UK average.

    BTW: that site also suggests for Dundee West,

    Constituency marginality Fairly safe.

    I don’t think McGovern is “fairly safe”, going by the SNP’s canvassing returns onnyhoo.

  94. GM_Dundonian
    Ignored
    says:

    This whole hysterIa just reeks of the worst double standards you can find when it comes to our so called United Kingdom. For how many decades have the Scottish people had to sit back and keep our mouths shut and be ruled over by a Tory party that had no mandate in Scotland, today holding only 1 seat in 59.

    So it was fine for that Tory party to rule us, even though its a party that only cares for the rich middle and upper English classes. Hell, a party that really only gives two shits about London. In the days of the collapsed British Empire, London IS the empire, the rest of the U.K regions mere colonies. London just can’t let get go of the Imperial mindset. Oh yes that’s all us Jocks are to the Westminster elite: colonials. We are johnny foreigner, we are different, we are less than the English, we are not genetically programmed to make important choices or rule our own land.

    Of course we did have the Labour party, and it did stand up for us once. But slowly and surely the these proud Scots morphed into ‘Proud Scots But..’ stooges of the Westminster elite. They agreed to dance the ruling elites tune in return for obsene wealth, a little power, privIleges and a lovely ermine coat. They betrayed their socialist roots to embrace the Neo-Liberal greed like much of the western world, a greed that has put millions in to poverty and suffering. And what did these ‘proud scots but’ have to do to enjoy their new positions? That’s right, talk down Scotland, keep their fellow Jocks in their place and spout Socalism to the massess while voting through conservative ideology in our ‘united’ parliament.

    And you labour people wonder why we have turned away from you to the SNP? Real labour died with John Smith 1994. You are Right Wing Tory clones, ready to continue with conservative policy and appease middle England over the desires of your Scottish voters. So to hell with you and to hell with the London Empire you are so desperate to prop up.

    We have awoken, we are aware of your fraud now. How fitting someone on this post mentioned votes for India. Back in the day India was the jewel in the crown of the empire. Well let me tell you this, any labour drones that might be reading wings for amusement of dirt on Cyber nats. Scotland is the jewel in the London Empire, and if it wasn’t and if it was the drain on England you No folk claimed last year, why did English politicians fight so hard and so dirty to keep us? Just follow the Business for Scotland link (the side options links under Zoomer Patrol) and check out the wealth article on the front page. It speaks for itself.

    Yes, I love Scotland, and I make no apologies. Yes I will vote SNP now and forever until independance, and no amount of smeer, zoomer articles, or promises of better days from Labour, lib dem or Conservative will change my vote. For you all committed the greatest sin in my eyes as our Scottish MPs – you betrayed Scotland to make your own lives better. You are Scum to me.

    If you have indeed lost Scotland to the SNP, you have only yourselves to blame. And if you try to lock out the democratically elected body from Scotland from westminster because you can’t stand the idea of anti Austerity Jockistan colonials having a say in our ‘United Kingdom Parliament’ , then prepare to say goodbye to the jewel in the crown of the London Empire forever.

    It’s not a crime to love Scotland more than an indifferent London, no matter what the Daily Record says.

    Hail Alba gu snooker loopy!

    Sorry fellow Wingers for the long rant, I’ll call it therapy lol.

  95. manandboy
    Ignored
    says:

    Among England’s clutch of fears,
    is the one they absolutely demand of Scotland –
    it is the state of powerlessness.

    This is what they have come to as part of their panic attack
    in response to recent polls.

    They have had a glimpse of the future, as they did in Indy.
    Today, what they see is powerlessness.

    When you have had power
    for as long as the Westminster Establishment have,
    then the prospect of having no power,
    or so little, it is ineffective,
    is like a heroin addict faced with zero supply –
    a total loss of self-control results.

    This is similar to what is happening in Englishland.

    However, there is a downside for Scotland, and for anyone else
    hoping for a restoration of democracy in the UK.
    The downside is pressure.

    Under this kind of pressure, the ruling classes will do
    whatever it takes to retain power.
    I refer of course to election deals and rigging.

    Election rigging still shocks us here in the UK,
    in spite of the fact that Labour have been doing it for decades,
    while we were asleep.

    But across the globe, election fixing is apparently commonplace.
    The Unionist election management teams of both Tory and Labour
    will be only too well aware of rigging as an option.

    They have been well schooled by the Americans
    who have been fixing elections since George W Bush
    became president in 2001.

    As for a deal – a Tory/Labour coalition is still the most reliable way,
    in the short term, for the Union to remain intact.

    At least, that’s what Unionists think.

  96. Valerie
    Ignored
    says:

    Je suis Stewart Hosie!

  97. thedogphilosopher
    Ignored
    says:

    Time to “kick out the effing Tories”: Thus Spake David Cameron.

  98. Donald Urquhart
    Ignored
    says:

    This hysteria from commentators down south about Scotland taking part in the democracy of the UK, well it’s almost as if they have some sort of colonial superiority.
    Some of it is a wee tad racist?

    Strange. Has anyone else detected that?

  99. Ali
    Ignored
    says:

    The ultra-safe seats are so because of all the people whose votes make up a safe majority. That is, it is a democratic outcome rather than the democratic deficit implied by that website. Your vote counts – you’re just outvoted by other people who expect their votes to count also. There may be other reasons for democratic deficits but, as we have seen of late, things change.

  100. YESGUY
    Ignored
    says:

    Johnny,

    Thanks for the correction. I knew it was too good to be true. Still it was a nice enough article maybe the readers will calm down about us uppities. 🙂

  101. thedogphilosopher
    Ignored
    says:

    @ YESGUY 1.06

    I like that last paragraph. For some reason I thought of Wembley 67, only with Eck playing keepy-up!

  102. Casper1066
    Ignored
    says:

    I did a little flying around the comments on news paper sites to see the comments and it was surprising how many people are actually pro SNP and Alex Salmond. Plus how these people are now working out how they are being conned by MSM and the party lies. I feel the tide is turning, there was more pro than anti comments and the actual English electorate thanking SNP and Alex Salmond for breaking the hold of the WM establishment.

    A lot actually wishing SNP stood in their areas. Guys there is a small light of common sense and education challenging the lies of the SMS and Tory/Labour. It was a nice surprise, so when your having these conversations with the most eager anti SNP, there is a lot of people taking information/education from these interactions.
    Keep up the good work….we are changing minds all over the place guys.

  103. EphemeralDeception
    Ignored
    says:

    “sabotage the democratic will of the British people”

    I think its a classic case of stating British but as a synonym for English. How could it be otherwise when the Scots never vote Tory anyway?

    I also like the ‘Jocko’ comment, seems the love bombs just keep coming. Its so nice that the establishment are going that extra mile since the referendum to make us feel like a valued and equal partner in the treaty. Those poor, humiliated, No voters…

  104. Fiona
    Ignored
    says:

    I agree with Casper.

    There are many many social democrats in all parts of the UK, and they have no voice at Westminster.

    @ EphemeralDeception

    I do not think it is “British as a synonym for English” I think it is better expressed as “British as a synonym for Tory”, or possibly for “Westminster and the elite”

  105. Mark
    Ignored
    says:

    The wole non-story just reveals how startlingly I’ll-informed about the world outside that of the rich and powerful. Obviously, one wouldn’t expect the establishment to be au-fait with the minutiae of SNP policy, but surely it would have been considered sensible to find out before looking stupid!
    Unfortunately, I think the truth is that they don’t give a dam what the people of Scotland or their representatives do or think: so long as they don’t rock the boat!

  106. Chic McGregor
    Ignored
    says:

    Scotland! As part of the UK you have the right to remain silent.
    You have NO other rights.

  107. Chic McGregor
    Ignored
    says:

    Another great article Stuart. You are really exceptional at condensing issues down to base facts and presenting logically watertight conclusions.

  108. Duncan McFarlane
    Ignored
    says:

    Generally good post and i agree with it. One minor point – the site you link to on the effects of a vote by constituency is based on pre-2005 election polling, and out of date. Most of the seats in Scotland where it tells people their vote counts for nothing are now marginals, where their vote counts for a lot, as there are almost no ‘safe’ seats left in Scotland on current polling.

    Just don’t want people discouraged from voting on the basis of out of date info.

  109. EphemeralDeception
    Ignored
    says:

    @Fiona, I had a look at the whole article and the comments of the spokesperson before my earlier comment. It is a Tory, but he is effectively saying a Scottish block vote should not be able to influence Britain.

    Thus it must mean that Scottish votes should not be able to overturn/block what a majority in England and Wales voted for. However I am sure he wasn’t thinking about Wales in the comment.

    Eg. He also stated “could endanger the future of the Trident submarine and would mean “chaos” for Britain.”
    It all boils down to: its OK and democratic that a block vote in England can impose something in Scotland we voted against, but when we get enough representatives, a Scottish block cannot be allowed to exercise what they were elected to do at UK level.

    So he is clearly referring to British/Britain outside of Scotland as opposed to just tories but is for sure also meaning Westminster British Elite into the bargain as you stated.

  110. Fiona
    Ignored
    says:

    I don’t disagree, EphemeralDeception: it is just that I do not accept that he represents who he thinks (or perhaps pretends) he represents. He does not distinguish between “me and my pals in the Westminster bubble” and “the people of england” nor “the people of Britain”

  111. EphemeralDeception
    Ignored
    says:

    Ok, I get you now. So we are agreed then 😉

  112. Lesley-Anne
    Ignored
    says:

    Just had a wee play with the voter power index. WOW!

    Dumfriesshire,Clydesdale and Tweeddale has the equivelent vote rating of 0.680. We are ranked #70 out of 650. Unbeleivable!

    Mind you it does help when Fluffy’s seat is considered to be Marginal I suppose. 😀

  113. Katie
    Ignored
    says:

    Im surprised that peole are just understanding the vote power theory now. Given the whole of Scotland with many constiuencies is about the same size of London, it doesnt take a mathematical genius to work out why we very rarely get the party we have voted for in the GE. However, this time its different. This time Westminster are sh1tting themselves!

  114. Dorothy Bruce
    Ignored
    says:

    I wee chuckle that Alex said, “The Tories would have to go straight effectively for a vote of confidence – usually the Queen’s Speech, although it could be otherwise, and we’d be voting against,” said Mr Salmond. “So if Labour joins us in that pledge, then that’s Cameron locked out.”

    So if Labour follow the SNP lead there is the possibility of a Labour government supported by SNP and others. If Labour doesn’t follow the SNP, then they are welcoming in a Tory government supported by Labour.

    Interesting.

  115. Linda
    Ignored
    says:

    I wonder how many London based politicians and their supporters will cry “fowl” sorry “foul” when the votes are finally counted……it’s all going to be one big fix, the votes will be rigged or people finding bags of ballot papers in tube station bins….it’ll be the Scottish conspiracy of the century….it’ll all be our faults as Scots….dividing England and paying them back for not giving us independence. And here was me thinking we were all better together….looks like Scotland and her politicians are going to get the last laugh after all…..Go SNP GE2015…..I’m really looking forward to the Labour Party activists knocking on my door…I am so ready for that chat….

  116. michael diamond
    Ignored
    says:

    No voters dont do humiliation, but they do do subservience.



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