The turning tide
There’s a very good piece in the Scottish Sun today by Andrew Nicoll – entitled “Why promise more devolution when it will never happen?” – on the consequences of a “No” vote in the 2014 referendum. It’s well worth reading in full, but if you’re in a rush we’ll just quote the last line of it to give you the flavour:
“Independence has been a gun at Westminster’s head for decades. What do you think will happen when they find out there are no bullets in it?”
We are, as ever, pleased to see the mainstream Scottish media catching up with the stuff we’ve been saying for months, although the reality is in fact even worse than Nicoll suggests. Nonetheless, it’s good to see the analysis disseminated in Scotland’s biggest-selling paper, and by a proper senior staff journalist rather than the cop-out option of an opinion columnist. The Scottish Sun has almost ten times the circulation of the Scotsman, the country’s supposed “quality” broadsheet, and it’s worth remembering that pieces like this will therefore reach far more people than the likes of Michael Kelly, Brian Wilson or Magnus Gardham could ever dream of. Slowly but surely, the independence campaign is winning the argument, and the opposition’s panicked response tells the story. Stay out of the mud, folks.
I’m having trouble with your link to the sun article Rev.
Try it now.
Working now.
Aye, the times they are a changing! The Tory-Labour stranglehold, the Mighty Glasgow Rangers bankrupcy, the STUC refusal to join the Better Together campaign, the imminent closure of another Scottish shipyard, etc etc. One by one, the great pillars of Scottish unionism are falling. Who would have thunk it – even five years ago?
Scottish_skier,
Your theory about the Tories planning to ditch Scotland will soon be put to the test. It looks like at least one shipbuilding yard will be gone by Christmas. Which will be sacrificed? If it is Portsmouth, the they are still hoping to hold on to Scotland for a few more oil-rich years. If it’s Govan or Scotstoun, it’s all over, goodbye union. There are already whispers (getting louder) from down south that it would be too risky to keep both Scottish yards prior to the referendum. The Better Together campaign are in a extremely difficult situation. Jim Murphy is squirming already.
Did anyone else listen to that cadaverous Jim Murphy giving us the benefit of his forked tongue this morning? He implied that if Scotland voted yes we would become a foreign country and wouldn’t be given any more Navy contracts to build ships. He was then asked the question that if Scotland voted no in the referendum what guarantee would there be that the Scottish yards would be given British Navy contracts.
I didn’t catch his answer as he seemed to be having difficulty with his tongue. Anybody else hear what he had to say?
@Luigi
Yes, this is an interesting potential litmus test. With Labour still out in front polls-wise (although it’s a soft lead as Ed is not PM material) the Tories need a boost. The closure of a S. England yard at the benefit of the uppity jocks would not go down well in the home counties, particularly as it would also mean all remaining BAE yards would be in Scotland, which is quite possibly going to up and leave soon. So, if you decide to give up on Scotland, then you shut one on the Clyde at least. It will do a lot of damage to the pro-union campaign, but then that seems to be the intention of every Westminster Tory intervention into the constitutional situation at the moment.
Luigi
I would say Mr Murphy is fighting Portsmouths corner after listening to him this morning
After all according to him as we all know we would be a foreign country and the UK does not give its orders to a foreign country,and this according to him is Portsmouths best card to play
My question is this, if BAE for commercial reasons decides to close Portsmouth as they seemed to indicate would be the case a few months back Who will build the ships They will have no option but put them out to tender
I wonder what the workers of Govan feel about a Glasgow MP doing his best to make them redundant for that is what it amounts to Maybe a case if I don’t have a job neither will you
Ronald,
I also listened to Jim Murphy, on Radio Scotland this morning. He started his usual rant about the importance of Scotland staying in the union blah blah and how Britain never built “high tech” (or some word to that effect) warships in foreign countries, but soon tripped himself up and had no answer for the fact that one yard will close and that Scottish yards could in fact compete for other defence contracts, e.g. Norwegian warships have been built in Spain. He did mention that arguments for retaining Portsmouth, based on the uncertainty of Scotland remaining in the UK have been made. Jim Murphy is in a very difficult position.
If a Scottish shipyard DOES close, how dumb are the guys in the first BetterTogether video going to feel?
link to youtube.com
Anyway, Andrew Nicoll’s piece is excellent. As you say Rev, it’s stuff some of us have been saying for months, but it’s a revelation to see it written down in The Sun. It’s particularly great that it’s by an actual staff journalist, rather than the “oh my god, look what the Daily Record has printed, maybe it’s finally becoming pro indep… oh, it’s Joan McAlpine’s column” false dawn that we regularly see.
I suspect this is the fruits of the SNP’s attempts to get The Sun on-side, and hopefully we’ll see this sort of article with increasing regularity. Then maybe, just maybe, we can stop giving a toss about whatever rubbish Tom Gordon digs up at the behest of Magnus Gardham in the Herald.
@Doug Daniel
link to bettertogether.net
Based on the facial expressions of the shipyard guys in the video, BT could probably just dub over it with ‘just talking aboot separation has cost us our joabs’. I mean they look like they’re about to cry, so joyous is the prospect of being ‘better together’.
EDIT. Oh, and coming back to the IFS and it’s reports on economies….
link to bbc.co.uk
UK ‘could face austerity until 2018’
I rather think the report for Scotland looks rosier.
Closing one of the Clyde yards would be the least sensible strategy for BAE systems as the yard in Portsmouth needs a multi-billion pound refit to undertake the Type 26 work.
The Clyde yards dont.
BAE are a company and not hte government so thats not in their interest to add cost onto their operations.
But its a headache for Westminster.
So if Westminster push for BAE to close a Scottish Yard before the referendum then they have removed their entire ship building scare tactic and would most probably have to give BAE the funding to refit portsmouth.
How would that look to Scottish voters??? Westminster funding a multi-billion pound refit to Portsmouth with our money to keep it open over the Scottish yard that required no such investment.
They’ve done it before with Rosyth and the submarine refit and maintenance work. funding improvements to an english yard so that the work could move there rather than remain in Scotland.
More likely will be a “surprise” order for work that will keep all 3 yards open for say 2.5 years… just until after the referendum
OT: Rev Stu have you started to write for BBC Scotlandshire or are they defaming your good name through satire?
link to bbc.scotlandshire.co.uk
– “If a Scottish shipyard DOES close, how dumb are the guys in the first BetterTogether video going to feel?”
The video would probably be removed. Someone should take a copy of it and a screen grab of their current homepage before any renovation.
Well volunteered to do that TYRAN!!!!
Good Man! 8)
@CyBOS
“Vicar Wingit Ower Scotlandshire – Bigotry, Conspiracy and Rangers Correspondent”
Sounds about right…
Mato21
I wonder what the workers of Govan feel about a Glasgow MP (Jim Murphy) doing his best to make them redundant, for that is what it amounts to…
——
Too true, mate. If it comes to pass and Govan is shutdown, then I’ll be surprised that the next time Murphy crosses the border, that he doesn’t feel like a ("Tractor" - Ed) as he approaches Glasgow. He and his Party have betrayed Scotland now, far too many times, and I now believe that even they know the game is up. The lies are no longer working.
Even the few Unionists friends that I know are starting to admit, that they can’t answer for their politicians arguments.
We would like to point out that “Vicar Wingit Ower Scotlandshire – Bigotry, Conspiracy and Rangers Correspondent” is an entirely fictitious character and has no connection with the esteemed writer of this blog.
I still buy the Sun forgive me for my sins but us manual workers like to read something in the van at lunch break and Andrew Nicoll has been going in this direction for the last fe weeks, I just wish he would have a word with Bill Leckie who should stick to sport.
As for shipyard closures, Devenport v Rosyth and RAF Buchan v I think Conningsby way back yonder, so not hard to see which one Westminster would close.
I don’t know. I suddenly realised I’ve seen a fair bit of despondency amongst some indy supporters, and I can’t understand why. Unless it’s because the polls aren’t moving, or the behaviour in Holyrood. Maybe that’s it – the thought that the electorate will turn off because of the behaviour. Perhaps the answer is indeed to have some Italian style politics with, well, tricky, I guess it’d have to be Sturgeon and Lamont, with a side-order of Davidson. That’d get them interested in FMQ – 5 million viewers, and that’s just in Scotland.
Maybe though it’s because impatience has set in. It’s still nearly 2 years to go before we get the result. Well, I have news for you all, I know the result. It’s 75% YES, to 25% NO and that’s because the 25% spoilt their ballot paper.
Only thing I’m worried about; I want a turnout of 75%, not the 62% in the 1997. Ah well, I’ll settle for that, I guess.
Too many people are still taking the newspapers’ word as the ultimate truth. Just the other day I heard someone who runs a shop proclaim that Alex Salmond was a “racist” and that he was “caught at the fiddle”. Details were distinctly lacking, but his newspapers to hand were the clear source of his opinions. He went on to spread his opinion to many, many people that day.
If there is speculation now as too whether the Scottish yards will close, try a thought experiment. Suppose Scotland votes no in 2014. Is there any doubt that Westminster will take that as a mandate to do whatever they like to Scotland, including closing the shipyards?
Regarding the refusal by the UK gov to countenance building war ships in foreign countries – I’ve been ill, and must have missed the news that England had actually annexed South Korea, making it domestic rather than foreign. Can anyone supply a link, please?
Well, to be accurate, it’s Royal Navy fleet auxiliaries – 4 fuel tankers that are being builit in Soth Korea, not warships.