The parable of the window
Posted on
July 02, 2013 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
The first minute is January to May of 2011. From around 1m 12s, the glass represents the next two years’ referendum polling. Julianne Moore plays the parties of the Union. (Jeff Goldblum is the SNP throughout.) Technically speaking nothing changes for quite a prolonged period. Positions are maintained. But something’s happening.
That’s just how we interpret the situation. We could be wrong, of course.
Rev,
With these seven posts in one day you are really spoiling us.
They say dinosaurs never really went the way of extinction; instead, some evolved into birds 🙂
Evolution is a wonderful thing.
Some of the birds I have known evolved into elephants
The dinosaur is Project Fear. The dog is BBC Jockovision. The boy is Yes Scotland. Magnus Gardham, Tom Peterkin, Eddie Barnes, Simon Johnson and Alan Roden are the fish. Mum and dad are “don’t knows”. The dog wants to build an alliance with the dinosaur. The fish want to swim in the big pool. Mum and dad want more information. The dinosaur agrees to help the fish if the fish will help the dinosaur. The dinosaur wants to eat the boy. The dog gets screwed over by the dinosaur. The CGI dinosaur stops animating as the Tory money dries up. The dinosaur falls in the pool and squishes the fish. The boy lives happily ever after.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7tqVEdyteg
I thought being cast in that godawful Jurassic Park sequel was harsh enough on Julianne Moore, now you cast her as the unionists? Ouch.
But something’s happening.
Aye.
Excellent. So funny I’m going to bed with a smile on my face! In spite of Newsnicht!
Julianne Moore represents the Unionist parties?
Aye, okay, but she doesn’t represent Jackie Baillie. It would’ve ended at 1min 12 secs otherwise.
I always forget Vince Vaughn is in The Lost World
John Curtice on Newsnight – some polls are better than others.
@Yesitis-
Curtice is right.
Here’s one:
http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-economy/7676-small-businesses-in-favour-of-independence-according-to-new-poll
Talking of dinosaurs and “Project Fear” which is now mainstream, in that it provided much of the focus for tonight’s Newsnight Scotland. Ian Murray Labour MP, a fully paid up member of the “Project” just had a car crash of an interview at the hands of Gordon Brewer. Well worth a watch. Also John Curtice admitted that the YES vote was now anywhere between 38/39% and 44% depending on which poll you look at. He also said that the YES vote had not moved in the last year. I’m puzzled by his stats. and summary, but have no doubt we are now moving in the right direction.
@Craig Gallagher-
‘ I always forget Vince Vaughn is in The Lost World.’
Aye, and Vince Cable’s there as well.
So, Goldblum is the SNP. Makes sense, he does good but people seem to dislike him for trivial reasons at times, though there is valid criticism of his performance too. And yes, that’s the unionists in Julianne Moore, not really doing all that much to help herself and staring into the abyss…
Then who was phone?
We don’t know who the phone was, but Vince was the cable.
Sorry O/T, but this is really good and I wanted to share. Hope this works I’m using my phone to post.
http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/no-barriers-to-trade-with-a-yes-vote/
Then who was phone?
That would be the electorate voting ‘Yes’ in 2014.
Tomorrow’s Telegraph headline says it will take 20 years to fix the UK economy. 20 years too long for Scotland. Vote YES in 2014.
You’re all so wrong.
The movie was Independence Day, from Project Fear Productions.
The bus is the independence movement, the dinosaurus is the big bad world outside. Jeff Goldblum is David Cameron. The dog (what dog?) is Danny Alexander. Being a dog, his career is very short, whether the bus goes over the cliff or not.
Like all Project Fear Productions, what was intended as a horror movie was interpreted by the public as a comedy.
At the end of the scene, once the cameras stopped rolling, Julianne Moore (Ruth Davidson) let go of Jeff Goldblum’s hand, and plummeted 2 inches to the floor. She then walked off the set, got a proper job, and never heard from Cameron again.
Off topic, found this cartoon for the new border crossing
http://imgur.com/wCmMsQi
@Bill C : regarding the Polling data.
The answer is that when the headline polling data is published they don’t exclude the Don’t Knows.
So for example a poll result of NO 50%; YES 32% ; Don’t Know 18% actually means NO 61%; YES 39% when you exclude the Don’t Knows.
This is completely different from the way they report Party Voting intention Polls where they ALWAYS exclude the Don’t Knows before publishing the result.
(The only reason I can think of for this is that it allows them to trumpet a lower YES % in the headline).
When you actually look at all the Polls over the past 6 months (since the Referendum Question was agreed) they all give remarkably similar results when you exclude the Don’t Knows of around NO 62%; YES 38%. This was also exactly the same result that the Glasgow Uni vote came in at as well.
There was a slight wobble down to around 35% when we took an (unnecessary) battering in the Press on Pensions/Currency a few weeks ago, but then it bounced back.
The only exception is PanelBase which consistently gives a YES vote of 44% (compared to around 37% for the other polling companies).
There is a bit of work going on to try and understand why the Panelbase methodology is different : There are a couple of theories about that : but one thing Panelbase do do as part of their questioning is to ask respondents how they voted in SG 2011 (this serves as a check to make sure your sample contains the right mix of people from different party political persuasions).
The results of this check show that the Panebase sample is reflective of the % who voted for each party in SG2011, so that suggests their sample mix is accurate : That is good news.
So despite the anecdotes we all have from real life the headline polls are remarkably flat and ain’t moving at all.
I think the answer to this (if you read what Stephen Noon for example says) is that the headline polling doesn’t pick up someone moving from a Firm No to a Soft No or from a Soft No to a ‘very wobbly/but not quite sure its OK to say YES yet’ position.
The YES/SNP internal polling / canvassing ranks respondents on a scale of 1 – 10 so you can see the movement along the scale in a more subtle way.
I’m not party to that internal polling data but what I hear is that there is quite a bit of moving along the scale with people shuffling towards Yes but without committing yet.
In other words the window tipping point analogies the Rev gives is a pretty good reflection of reality.
At some point we should see a leap in YES in the headline polls : at that point it gets very interesting.
Hope that helps.
“Some of the birds I have known evolved into elephants”
ahhh ha ha ha ha ha ha ha hah ahaaaa
I might just know those birds
Who is the phone? Scotland’s MSM, they’re already in free fall!
Dont forget the big steaming pile of shite in Jurassic Park, definetely reminds me of a few No campaign links.
John Curtice must be a Pterodactyl…mad unwanted swawker who turns up for no apparent reason ( A discussion on Negative Campiagning – lets get Curtices thoughts?)…eventually we get birds like the Kingfisher…and Curtice does remind me of Professor Yaffle from Bagpuss.
Although I have no idea what the cumulative results look like, the polling cards using the 1-10 scale are interesting to use. The ‘definites’ of course go straight for 1 or 10. Among the ‘don’t knows’ very few people seem to choose 2,3, or 4, or 8/9 for that matter. Answers clump around 5/6/7, almost always with the suggestion that ‘more information’ will push them up the scale a wee bit.
Does anyone believe the parable of the Prodigal Sun?
@Yes it is
“John Curtice on Newsnight – some polls are better than others.”
Yep. Best to continually quote independence support from one where independence options (2 out of 6 available) contain references to Europe and separation.
@Ivan McKee -Thanks Ivan very helpful, much obliged.
Last night on Newsnight we were given two contradictory statements from two different people as to the origins of the term “Project Fear” as used in the current independence debate. One of the commentators was either wrong/mistaken/in error….in which case he should be told……or he was being deliberately dishonest…..in which case we should be told.
Can anyone provide the actual evidence of first use?
@ Jake,
https://twitter.com/newsundayherald/status/352191170090250240
Blair Jenkins is correct on origins of Project Fear label. Mentioned by Better Together in @newsunday herald report a week past Sunday.
Jake…there was actually 2 YES folk saying it originated at NO HQ…Ian Murray then tried to say it was a a nasty jibe from the YES campaign…no-one believes a word he says when he offers support, bar the Orange Order and Rangers of course
Jake – it was in the Sunday Herald – They tweeted last night “Blair Jenkins is correct on origins of Project Fear label. Mentioned by Better Together in @newsunday herald report a week past Sunday” @ 12:24
Project Fear first seen here I believe
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/one-year-on-will-better-together-change-their-tactics.21402294
“Then who was phone?
That would be the electorate voting ‘Yes’ in 2014.”
Actually, the phone represents an as-yet-unknown tipping point. It could be anything. It could be the “Project Fear” revelation, or something that hasn’t happened yet, but which when it does acts as the straw that breaks the camel’s back and sees opinion turn conclusively Yes-wards.
Theres a “Break Through” hopefully it will be for the YES camp, but Jeff Goldblum, shouts “Hang on to something” and of course the unionists or as their better known “Project Fear”, are trying to hang on to Scotland, but remarkably Goldblum (SNP) actually saves Julianne Moore (Unionist), maybe it will be that way after independence, Scotland will end up saving Westminsters arse, who ironic.