More meta-polling
General consensus among the Wings Over Scotland readership seems to be that our Panelbase poll was a resounding success. Despite an almost-total media blackout, traffic to the site has seen a large spike since we undertook the project, and the survey’s findings have bled into the narrative of the debate even when the press didn’t want to acknowledge their source.
We’ve also had some helpful advice on how to do an even better job next time, and to be honest with you, readers, we’re itching to have another go.
We’re fast approaching the one-year mark before the referendum (remember how the Unionist parties used to bleat about “a thousand days” of campaigning? How fast the first 600-odd have flown by), and it could be fun to mark the “pre-anniversary” with another batch of fascinating data about the thoughts of Scottish voters.
We’ve been talking to various people and groups behind the scenes, and we have what we think is another pretty good batch of questions shaping up (there’s still time for more of your suggestions, though). The question is, is it too soon and are you ready to dig into your pockets again yet?
We’ve got almost £1700 left over in the kitty from the insanely-successful first fundraiser, so we wouldn’t need much more money to pay for a second poll – £2000 or so would be plenty for around 10 questions. Alternatively we could give your wallets a break and hold off for a while. What do you think?
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as the media have hardly covered the first one, a second won’t do any harm now. They can’t ignore you for ever 🙂 (or can they?)
A wee donation Paypal’ed off to ya.
I’ve said “No, it’s too soon”, but it depends what the exact definition of “a few weeks” is, really.
I think the white paper would be a good milestone for holding another one. But it depends what questions you have in mind!
To counter the media blackout and to ensure they haven’t a leg to stand on, should we consider using Ipsos Mori or another provider, or depending on costs, two providers simultaneously? Can’t wait to see the questions. Bring it, my wallet is ready and willing! 🙂
Could we have a question that asks people their voting intentions in the first Scottish general election (in the event of a Yes vote)?
There are two things I think to consider:
1. There will be a lot in the media on the pre-anniversary as each camp attempt to squeeze the other in terms of coverage and get their message out, WOS is unlikely to be able to compete.
2. There are likely to be a number of significant polls conducted by various organisations to mark the anniversary and again WOS is likely to be squeezed in terms of coverage.
For all the success of the site it’s still not ‘mainstream’ enough (hahaha, doesn’t feel like it) to compete for headlines, however, you never will unless you go out there and try to make it happen.
There’s no point in asking the same questions as every other poll, try a different angle, whatever that might be . . .
It would be good to see the next poll released on the same week-end as the Calton Hill gathering.
So the media can’t ignore it again have you asked if you can run the questions passed JC. if it has his approval then can they critize it?
There is no time to delay. The anti-Independence machine is ratcheting up the gears as we speak, desperate to discredit Scotland at every turn. We have to show that we are a growing force and one to be taken VERY seriously. Truth will out. Surely, it’s a no brainer.
As long as there’s nae space monsters! – Too easy a stick to beat us with. 😉
Think about the timing – around the one-year-to-go mark might be swamped by the media’s own take on things (but a whole week before, say, may work); likewise, around the white paper release things might not get picked up on, or they may interfere in unforeseen and unfortunate ways.
Also, simpler and shorter questions, and fewer of them (and find a handful of people to go through them first).
Re Paula Rose?
Excellent suggestion. The results will help focus minds on the future and perhaps push some soft No’s and undecided’s to a Yes vote. It will also focus minds in the Labour party.
There currently seems to be a frenzy of Unionist rhetoric in the press and on TV/Radio, with occasional oases of rationality – I was pleased to see a balanced article by Iain Macwhirter in the Guardian.
Another poll would be just the ticket to whip up another frenzy – hopefully a frenzy too far.
I view such polls as an information base for Scottish voters, but also they raise the profile of “WINGS” at the same time, which in my mind can only be good. I also think we need further polls to keep the Unionist a little more on the back foot, by offering “real” Scottish opinion.(anyone seen Blair McDougal since the poll showing 67% of Scots think he is a liar.)
Most of all we need to think very carefully for a humdinger 2-4 weeks prior to the referendum. Something that WILL focus Scots, on what they will lose if they vote NO, showing them where it will hurt, particularly in their pockets, and their welfare.
What a NO vote could mean to them and their families. Let us bury the Unionist lies once and for all.
I am a dinosaur and I trust neither banks nor the internet. I therefore do no financial transactions on line [except buying airline tickets]. I am happy to send a cheque if you post the usual details.
Would it make sense to see what emerges from other polling around and after the 365 day threshold, then create the next WoS in response?
You’ve probably already spoken to the YES team – it makes sense not to duplicate their efforts and do everything possible to devise a coordinated approach. As ‘no Scotland’ continues to fall apart, an increasingly joined up effort by all the main YES campaign centres (and that includes WoS) will provide an obvious sign of shifting momentum.
Haven’t voted yet – will reserve judgement until seeing other comments.
Also, simpler and shorter questions, and fewer of them (and find a handful of people to go through them first).
And keep things as ‘straight’ as possible – give the media little room as possible for an excuse not to use the result.
I agree with Doug in that it is too soon after the last one, however exciting the prospect! But count me in for a contribution whenever you need it! I believe WoS is becoming the crucial source of information for Indy leaning people. One of my friends recently thanked me for referring him here. The humour and incisive analysis is not found elsewhere as far as I know.
I think we have them on the ropes, so I vote, yes.
In an ideal world, we would wait until after the publication of the White Paper before commissioning another poll.
However, as others have said, it’s clear that the BBC/MSM are ratcheting up the propaganda in advance of ‘one year to go’. So go for the new poll now, and I’ll be happy to contribute.
A question to reveal/raise awareness of the McCrone report. Please.
A second poll is important not only for the information it will glean but also and perhaps more importantly to show the MSM the first was not a flash in the pan. We would be saying we are here and we are not going to go away.
I didn’t even contribute to the last one! I’ll stick some money in for the next one.
Yes, go for it. But are you sure another £2000 would be enough if you only have £1700 left from the first fundraiser?
I think it would be great if you had something really unignorable to announce at the rally.
e.g. “Our latest polls showed that if the fear that Scotland might be worse of financially is put to one side, a majority of Scots would vote for independence. This clearly indicates that the true aspiration of the Scottish people is for normal levels of self government – independence. It also firmly puts the fiscal scaremongering and lies of the NO campaign in its rightful place on the moral spectrum.” (Well, at least I don’t give up easily 🙂 )
Will send a donation right after this
well A.T.O.S has found me fit for something so all benefits stopped. I will check down the back o the couch and anything there I will half with you…it is worth it 8)
“I’ve said “No, it’s too soon”, but it depends what the exact definition of “a few weeks” is, really. I think the white paper would be a good milestone for holding another one.”
Well, I said what the definition was – in time for the one-year point/second rally. I suspect it’ll be a lot harder to get media space around the release of the White Paper – that’s a solid thing that’ll need and get acres of serious analysis (and lots of black propaganda, obv), whereas the “anniversary” is just a date.
I say yes.
If the questions are different then lets get cracking. I smell blood now so we really should continue to stick the boot in.
Aggree that questions shouldbe run by some kind of experts (in house if needs be) to get major hard hitting impact. Avoid sneering from Curtice and the like.
Lets get it pretty watertight
“But are you sure another £2000 would be enough if you only have £1700 left from the first fundraiser?”
I’ll probably make the target £2500 to allow a little leeway. But that would add up to more or less what the first poll cost, and that had 13 questions.
“Most of all we need to think very carefully for a humdinger 2-4 weeks prior to the referendum”
1. Do you believe Scotland is a country? Y/N
2. What is the capital of Scotland? Edinburgh / London
3. Where you think the government of a country is best situated? It’s own capital city / the capital city of another country?
“And keep things as ‘straight’ as possible – give the media little room as possible for an excuse not to use the result.”
That’s the plan.
14 questions this time for luck surely !!
“Agree that questions shouldbe run by some kind of experts (in house if needs be) to get major hard hitting impact.”
I’ve had a couple suggested to me by good authorities.
could you ask… would you like your children to be led by wullie rennie, ruth davidson or johan lamont ?
I voted it is too soon. I think there might be a few polls around the 1 year mark and there is no point in giving them an excuse to ignore us. I think early October would be better, might also pick up the impact of having one year to go and associated coverage has on the voters.
Happy to donate at chosen point.
@gordoz
Agree re Curtice, already tried to point out the problems with the SSA survey.
Should also be aware of closet Us (in my long experience there are always closet Us) who will try to deflect things away from real damage to the NO campaign.
Keep the polls going, it will help in pushing the momentum of the debate. Different agencies could increase the kudos of the poll.
I’ve said no, but I do think that one either side of the white paper would be a good way to show what impact it has (4 weeks either side?).
Anyway, if you decide to do one on the aniversay, some bawbees will be heading you direction.
@gordoz
“14 questions this time for luck surely !!|”
Wouldn’t 13 then 14 not be attacked for obvious association with Bannockburn? (Only kidding,… I think.)
Hi Rev,
Happy to donate once you have sorted the details out
Craig
The last question should be THE question. Possibly more accurate result if people have thought about the issues first, as will be the case next September. Also surely harder for MSM to ignore.
Last times creativity coupled with lessons learnt makes me want to see next poll. Pre-anniversary seems good timing to me. Thing is you can always find a reason not to do something.
I guess there’s a danger that the MSM line around the rally on 21 September will be to admit there was a large gathering but undermine this by referring back to older polls as a sign that apparently only a third of Scots will vote YES. The next Sunday Times Panelbase poll may be published after 21 September(?). There may be other polls due before or around the rally. There’s an argument that an interesting poll result before the rally could be helpful.
The other interesting consideration is the intensity of the broad YES campaign and the information being generated. Is this the time to crank up coverage, or is it better to wait until after the one year point and the white paper? Part of me thinks that this is a one off opportunity and we need to get information out there now. Part also thinks we need to be playing our part in a structured and well timed effort which bides its time. Given the increase in WoS visits after the last poll and the impact this site is having, there’s much to be said for just going for it and commissioning another poll now. There will be time and financial support for others later in the year anyway.
I’d like to see a question, or set of questions, designed to let people indicate whether their attitude to independence has changed over the past 600 days and in which direction. By this I mean something more nuanced than the simple Yes/No division that we normally see.
I think two questions with a simple five point scale would do the job.
If you intend to vote No, how would you describe your attitude now compared with the start of the referendum campaign.
A lot less persuaded | Slightly less persuaded | Unchanged | Slightly more persuaded | A lot more persuaded
If you intend to vote Yes, how would you describe your attitude now compared with the start of the referendum campaign.
A lot less persuaded | Slightly less persuaded | Unchanged | Slightly more persuaded | A lot more persuaded
Go for it Rev, the first one was well successful even with the blackout, this time the questions will be put in such a way the press can’t ignore it or at least won’t be able to use the same excuse.
I didn’t get the chance to contribute to the first one but this one I’ll be able to, bring it on Rev.
A wee suggestion, I think one of the questions should be given another go but this time more straight forward and can’t be ignored, the question being: would you vote to create a Union today if Scotland was already independent ? I thought the result from the original question (only 18% in favour) was very telling and great amo but they tried to discredit it, the question worded as it is above surely would get publicity as it doesn’t lean one way or the other and is as straight forward as it can be. Just a thought.
Well looking forward to the next one and can’t come quick enough 🙂
Rev,
Will you be doing another “let’s do a thing” type page with a donate button or is do we just use the standard donate?
Go for it.
Questions :
1. Ask the Referendum Question – that makes it difficult for the Press to ignore the Poll (Although perhaps ask it at the end of the poll when people have a had time to think about the issues as I think that will give a more positive result)
2. Focus some of the questions on people opinions of what Scotland will/should look like after Indy. That starts to ‘normalise’ Indy in peoples minds.
– After Indy we will have more money to spend that we do now : How should we spend / invest it ?
– Should we have a Written Constitution ? What should be in it ?
– Who will you vote for in 2016 after Indy ?
etc.
The ‘pre-anniversary’ could see others doing polling, in which case the poll wouldn’t get covered – as already said, a week before (if possible) might work. Otherwise maybe the polling could be done around the time of the rally (i.e. when it should be in the media).
On ‘fewer’ questions: a maximum of five or six questions might be better; the best questions/results could get lost in the heap. Also, either the poll will be covered properly or it won’t, and if it is it would be better to have different media outlets focusing on the same few issues/results – this would be more likely to achieve the ‘momentum’ effect seen at other times.
I would wait till Parliament starts again around the start of September.
I’d be right up for a another poll right on the one year to go mark.
Can I suggest a question?
Probably been suggested already:
Assuming that Scotland becomes an Independent country, do you think it should be a monarchy or a republic?
It might be a good idea to test Unionist arguments this time round
1. Is Scotland too small to govern itself – YES, NO, Don’t Know
2. Is Scotland too poor to govern itself – YES, NO, Don’t Know
3. Are Scots less able to govern themselves – YES, NO, Don’t Know
4. Are Scots a nation of scroungers – YES, NO, Don’t Know
Do it on September 18th, symbolising and all that. But I’ll certainly punt some cash down for the next one, four to six weeks to publish sounds about right to me.
I wouldn’t have the questions so long next time and I would like to see them more direct and concentrated on what people would like to see Holyrood achieve in ‘trust’ questions to create a soft YES cuddly climate, then throw in a hand grenade over evil Westminster, next finish on a high with a pro Yes question. Strategy is the key. We know people favour Holyrood over Westminster, we know people favour AS over Ed, Dave and Nick, and we know BT are not trusted. Time to make that matter in collective questioning.
Post white paper release the MSM and forums will be buzzing with claims and counterclaims and I would hate our WOS poll results to be lost or ignored. On the other hand the results of the WOS poll could be a good indicator of post white paper reactions.
However my gut feeling is go for it before the Rally on the 21st September.
“I’d like to see a question, or set of questions, designed to let people indicate whether their attitude to independence has changed over the past 600 days and in which direction.”
Interesting idea, Peter. I like it. Don’t see a need for it to be two questions, though.
Saruman aka Alistair Darling, minus the beard, must not be allowed to destroy the good people of Middle Earth.. He will be quoshed along with his henchman Grima Wormtongue; that’ll be Blair MacDougall, then.
Ivan McKee – enjoyed your appearance on the Scottish Independence Podcast, by the way. A very assured performance!
I just used standard donate, is that OK?
As well as fewer questions, stick to one or two themes.
“I would wait till Parliament starts again around the start of September.”
Well, yes – if we’re looking to put something out around the 18th-22nd, fieldwork would be after Parliament went back.
“As well as fewer questions, stick to one or two themes. “
Yes, it’s mostly on a single theme so far.
I have just spoken with my friend Prof Curtice and he says your poll on this post “Should we go ahead with another poll in the next few weeks?” is biased and unreliable because there is no precedent for this question for comparison and absolutely no reference made to space monsters!
“Will you be doing another “let’s do a thing” type page with a donate button or is do we just use the standard donate?”
I’ll use Indiegogo again. Though as before, if people want to make ordinary donations too, for whatever reasons, that’s fine.
@Peter Bell
That would be great to know. Only problem with it, is the innate reluctance people have to admitting their view has changed.
I see no problem with another poll so long as the questions are clearly different.
Ivan McKee, 2 point is a belter.
It may be sensible to let the white paper bed down first.
However, I will support the democratic decision.
i like the questions gillie asks
How about a question with our favourite topic in mind:
Female voters!
If there’s a plan to do more polling over the coming year (which could help ensure the results are covered, if not this time, later), think about if the intention is to gauge people’s vague positions on issues to inform where the debate should be focusing, or if it’s more about tracking changing views. If it includes the latter, get a couple of really good (expertly written) questions which can be used every couple of months.
Sorry if that sounds/is a bit obvious.
Go for it…you had closed for donations by the time I went to donate last time so I’ll defo cough up.
Go for it Rev. Keep up the momentum.
Go on Rev, whenever you decide is the right time just run with it. You can count me in for a few quid again.
Stu,
Is there any relationship regarding the % accuracy of the poll versus the total number of people polled ? So if our last poll asked 1050 bods, would increasing the number to 2,000+ make any difference ?
I’d prefer that we did our polls to a timetable like every three months so we could ask questions that measure change. The one I would want to see is
Where do you get most of the information about the referendum that you trust?
TV, print media, online, facebook, twitter, people you know, family.
@ drygrangebull 12:29pm – I already checked doon the back of your couch when you were sleeping. Just broken crisps and sticky pandrops. Sorry. However dinna worry as I will stick in a few notes more on your behalf. Maybe see you in Edinburgh next month for a pint.
@ Doug Daniel
Thanks. Here’s the link if anyone’s interested
link to spreaker.com
Rev
Re Peter Bell’s suggestion, I also think it’s a good one but to avoid criticism and make it easy to understand and beyond any doubt I would urge two questions, viz:
1 How did you plan to vote 600 days ago Y/N/DK
2 How do you plan to vote now Y/N/DK
Keep it simple!
With respect, that is a totally different question. My intention was not to measure any shift from No to Yes or vice versa but to gauge changes of attitudes within the ranks of Yes and No voters. The hypothesis is that among those who declare that they still intend to vote No attitudes will have softened, i.e moved away from a hard No position and towards Undecided/Yes.
I’m not sure how accurately this can be measured as it requires that people make honest subjective judgements about their own attitudes and opinions. But a large enough sample might produce something meaningful in terms of indicating the relative effectiveness of the two campaigns.
Questions whose answers will be newsworthy. Our unionist journalist friends need our help.
As for the ‘we shouldn’t do another one soon’ folk.
If people are willing to cough up I see no reason why we can’t do as many as possible.
If you are into UK politics, you get like 5 yougov’s a week and ~8 x different VI + other stuff from different pollsters a month.
Even the Prof is frustrated by the lack of polls. He’d love to help with the questions and if he gets involved, he won’t be able to help himself talking about them.
No media outlet is doing really regular in-depth polling (jeez we have to rely on the English Times!), so why can’t Wings over Scotland be the first.
I do like Ivan’s idea 2 above – asking questions on post independence voting intentions and how the additional resource not being sent south could be used.
Have to be carefully worded to avoid being seen as leading, but not impossible.
I also was too late to contribute last time – by the time I was on-line the Rev was franticly telling people to stop sending money. So count me in for this one.
Off topic:-
Caught darling last night getting interviewd on BBC. Don’t know who by. Darling was stuttering, gibbering and nearly foaming at the mouth. How a man with his education and bearing in mind the positions that he has held can be so inartiulate beats me.
All I can say is long may he keep up the good work.
Wasnt so sure at first as thought it too soon after the last panel base poll but the way you’ve explained your reasoning, i too say go for it. Lets keep up the momentum, our momentum. With the 2nd rally now on the horizon, it would be really great for this to set the narrative and create an extra bounce for our day on top of Calton Hill. It will also be a timely reminder to the Unionist msm that our voice will be heard despite their best efforts to silence us and that they no longer have the stage to themselves. Lets Go.
So if our last poll asked 1050 bods, would increasing the number to 2,000+ make any difference ?
A 1000 sample is fine. Should be +/-3.1% variance, i.e. if you did exactly the same poll for another 1000 sample the same day you’d get exactly the same answers within +/- 3.1%. Doubling the sample size would not half the error, rather it would be 2.2% yet considerably more costly. Net gains vs cost continue to get poorer with larger sample sizes.
And note the 3% is a measure of precision, not accuracy. That’s why all pollsters say 3% yet can get VI’s more than 6% different to each other.
can we raise the awareness of the independently run Scottish NHS by asking something like ” do you believe a NO vote makes privatisation of it more or less likely”
Just noticed that the Heralds YES hacking story has had most of the comments wiped. Another hack? very strange.
If people are up for a monthly / regular interval poll then we should go for it. Just think of the kudos of we can do what the Herald, Hootsmon and Record can’t. And we’d get Prof C saying so in his blog 🙂
The other thing we should do is to try and get the “headline” results onto the news feeds Reuters PA, much more difficult to ignore.
“If you have family living outside of the UK, do you see them as ‘foreigners’?”
I’m of the same mind as a few of the other comments. Might be more useful after the white paper has been out there a few weeks.
I think you should have a regular bi-monthly poll at a certain time each month so that anticipation builds and the previous one informs the latest. Nothing to stop you tweaking some of the questions, but stick to a core set.
This might be a daft idea so please feel free to shoot me down in flames, but is there any benefit in restricting participation to the undecided?
Anyone who is a definite yes or no would be excluded, so the answers might help identify the key areas that matter to people yet to make up their minds.
Also, it would give us a unique selling point, because (as far as I can see) no-one else has done this.
SS, do you have idea why there are so few published polls recently?
I’ve said to wait a while but I definitely think a fewl more over the next year should be planned for.
I’ve said to wait a while but I definitely think a few more over the next year should be planned for.
I say yes, go for it! Gotta keep up the interest and give the BT side something to critique!
You have obviously got some questions in your thoughts to ask and all I’d want to know is what details do women want to know to encourage them to vote yes.
SS, any idea…….sorry……..regards, The Tree
The only reason I have voted NO is that we need to make sure that Parliment is back from holiday, I would like to see the results of the poll being mentioned during FM’s question time.
Apart from that, I am all for rocking and rolling.
Hail Alba.
Good oh! I’m up for a few bob for it Rev!
wonder if johan lamont will attend mr mcklechies funeral today ?
Here’s my wishlist of questions:
(1) Please include the straight Yes/No question. It’s great for crosstabs, and it makes it harder for the MSM to ignore the poll.
(2) It would also be interesting to see the straight Yes/No question compared with a 1-10 question like the one Yes Scotland volunteers are asking on the doorstep, in order to establish where the tipping point is.
(3) In relation to (2), I would like to ask them also where on the 1-10 scale they think they were a year ago. I.e., they might still be planning to vote No, but if they’re at 4 now but were at 2 a year ago, that means they’re moving in our direction.
(4) I’d also love to see a heart of hearts question. Something along the lines of, “In your heart of hearts, would you like to vote Yes if you can get your questions answered and your concerns alleviated?”
(5) Finally, I think it would be interesting to ask a question about the state of the UK — basically whether people think it’s going down the drain or developing in the right direction. I have a feeling there might be a strong correlation between the former group and Yes voters, but I’d like to see it confirmed.
Dont nkow if these have been covered so far ?
Should we include a legitimate question targeted at the soft underbelly of Unionism ?
In the case of a successful YES vote, should Scotland :
A. Retain an unelected second chamber peer system
B. Scrap and go for a European style elected second chamber of Professionals / Academics
C. Continue without the need for a second chamber
Or here’s another
Would you vote for the Labour Party in Scotland if it were to back Independence. Yes or No
Avoid monarchy at this stage – field day for the press and BT
Having seen the pathetic comments from Kate Higgins at the Herald event at the Edinburgh Fringe, I now think we should get the next poll out there as soon as possible.
i like Peter A Bell’s proposal but would drop the intro of…if intend to vote…
Another poll quite soon would keep up the pressure on Project Fear and the media.
I’m budgetting for donating to multiple WOS polls leading up to Sept 2014. With regard to the frequency and timing, whatever best applies pressure on project Fear.
Prof. Curtice did mention that MSM are a bit short on funds to commission polls. Crowdfunding is a major strength of Wings so we should work to our strengths and dip into our pockets as best we can.Each poll that the BBC and MSM ignores diminishes their creditability.
Two referendum questions.
1) What is your voting intention?
Followed by
2) If you were aware that we would get no more devolved powers would that change your previous answer?
Putting aside any concerns you may have over the prospect of Scottish independence, in an ideal world, would you like Scotland to be an independent country?
– Yes
– No
The Edinburgh Agreement has been signed. A second question (e.g on devo max) will not be asked in the referendum. Which of the following explanations is closest to your opinion of what really happened?
1) Alex Salmond got everything he wanted.
2) David Cameron got everything he wanted.
3) A compromise was reached, benefiting both sides equally.
4) A compromise was reached, favouring the Scottish government.
5) A compromise was reached, favouring Westminster.
6) None of these.
I’m in let me know where and when but I am out of the country from Saturday until next Friday so keep it open, great site and great comments I look forward to it every day.
Please set up donation page before 30th, otherwise I’m on holiday and I don’t want to miss out. I want to be part of history.
Please go for it Rev, as Scottish Skier says, “If people are willing to cough up I see no reason why we can’t do as many as possible.”
As I said elsewhere, I think the MSM will take far more notice this time, and it will bring WoS to an even bigger audience – win, win.
@Bunter – Just noticed that the Heralds YES hacking story has had most of the comments wiped. Another hack? very strange.
Indeed. I have a screen dump showing a comment by OBE, and my response to it, all gone, along with a few others. There were 7 comments when I made mine, next time I looked there were 2, now 3.
Phew! Just trying to catch up with everything after an internet-free holiday in Scotland! 😀
As someone pointed out above, a second (and a third, fourth, fifth…) poll is a great idea, so that the first WoS poll can’t be dismissed as just a flash in the pan. It of course depends on how much and how often we WoS readers are willing/able to donate. I’ll certainly cough up something, though I’m a bit unfinancial ATM after my holiday.
The timing is tricky. The results should be published at a time when other polls or other events aren’t hogging all the limelight. Also, the time of polling (actually asking people the questions) might be relevant. For instance, people might respond differently before and after indy march/pre-anniversary/White Paper/any unforeseen event in Scottish/UK/international politics.
Above, some have suggested asking who people would vote for in indy Scotland in 2016. I think that’s a bad question because it’s too hypothetical. Too far into the future, nobody knows what the referendum result will be, and nobody knows what parties would be contesting the first indy Scotland GE. The SNP, for sure, and the Greens, SSP… LFI? Labour?? Murdo Fraser’s new Scottish right-of-centre party?? Some reincarnation of Scottish LibDems??? The Pensioners, the Crofters, the Picts, the Monster Raving Scottish Loonies???? (I expect that the first couple of indy Scotland GEs in particular will have a multitude of parties but maybe 4-5 will emerge as serious players.)
OTOH, I quite like a question along the lines that, should Scotland vote for independence, where should independent Scotland’s priorities lie? (education, health, welfare, housing, defence, the environment, renewables, oil and gas, international relations, business promotion, land ownership/tenancies, even monarchy, etc. etc., all the thngs an independent country does.)
A question about a written constitution (Y/N, and/or what should be in it, and/or who should write it) could be interesting, but it might prove too difficult. How many ordinary Scots know anything about written constitutions? The UK doesn’t have one, after all, so UK citizens, Scots included, haven’t been educated on the matter. They might only know about the US constitution which has become sacrosanct and unwieldy and a hindrance to progress. Many small independent countries have reasonable, quite simple constitutions that set out the basic rights of the citizens, the basic state organs and how they’re elected, the judiciary and how the state and its functions are organized, in broad terms. The constitution cannot be changed by a simple majority in Parliament, it can only be changed by a qualified majority (e.g. 7/8 in one Parliament or 2/3 over two successive parliaments, or similar).
All in all, I’d say that the questions in the second WoS poll should be simpler, avoid language that can be perceived as “leading”, and as much as I loved the space monster question (and the responses it elicited!), maybe be a bit more “dry and professional”.
Oh, and the idea of asking the actual referendum question right at the end. Sounds like a god idea.
I love how Professor John Curtice has evolved from an eye-roll-inducingly over-exposed Scottish TV fixture into The Man From Del Monte of polling credibility 😉
Go for it Rev, as Scottish Skier says, if people are willing to cough up there seems no reason why we can’t do as many as possible. As well as the polling results – useful in their own rights – I believe the MSM will take greater notice this time round, and it will also result in increased exposure for Wings to the broader public, that’s a win, win.
A bit disappointed that there are so many nay-sayers, another poll now will send a clear message that crowd funding is a working proposition, as opposed to a one-off, and WoS isn’t messing about.
Tbh, I think they are aware of that last one. 😉
Go for it. The more we do it the more awkward it is to ignore it.
Loved Cath’s questions near the top.
Although we probably don’t need to ask the space monsters question again right now, it would be nice if that option could be included in another suitable question. It’s a matter of style. Plus a wee ‘up yours’ moment.
Definitely something that points out that NHS Scotland is quite separate from the english one.
“How about a question with our favourite topic in mind:
Female voters!”
I’ve been soliciting suggestions from women in recent days (ABOUT THE POLL). So far, we haven’t managed to come up with much in the way of specifically female-friendly questions. Any ideas welcome.
Have you seen Johann Lamont recently?
– Yes
– No
(If respondent answered Yes, then prompt:)
Where did you see her?:
– Oan the telly
– Doon the chippy
– In a shoap gettin her messages
– Other (please specify)
Yes for me too. Shouldn’t ask any fear-type questions though, like consequences of voting No will bring poverty and misery etc, don’t want to get tarred with same brush as the BT folk.
In any case, we’ve got Henry sowing enough fear, uncertainty and doubt about the consequences of a No vote 😉
I’ll only contribute if this poll is custom designed to fuel grievance.
re Kate Higgins’ comments at Herald/Edinburgh gig – hard to make out from Twitter precisely what was said, and the context. Can anyone put some flesh on the bones?
A reference to the last poll by the same funder and how its results have/not been reported by the MSM could be worded to show their biased attitude against independence.
I’ve voted yes – go for it.
But as was said on Saturday, it would be useful to get the questions pre-vetted by someone like Prof Curtice.
At least 50% of the questions should be the same as last time to build up trends.
The Referendum Question definitely needs to be asked.
A question designed to establish what would persuade women to become more engaged in the process.
Lets not go with overtly politico questions this time round – e.q. the Truthfulness Index
Keep the ‘Websites Recognised’ question – to see if Wings has benefited from any increased publicity as a result of the last poll.
Keep the ‘Vote to Join the Union’ question but change the ‘surrender independence’ wording
I liked the ‘McCrone’ question suggestion above – maybe it could be in a list of ‘are you aware questions’ including the Maritime Border Changes, NHS Scotland being run in Scotland and completely separate from the English NHS etc.
We should also definitely stick to Panelbase – trends would best less meaning full if we changed.
It would be interesting to find out if there was one over riding/dominant reason that people are voting Yes or No. This could provide valuable information about where to focus further discussions/information.
Also, while it is not going to sway me, I am aware that a yes vote will leave family members and relatives in the North of England to the whim of who the South send to Westminster. I would interested to see if, for those voting no, is there a significant pool of voters that are more swayed than I am. The question might be a bit narrow though.
Wow, it looks like “the crowd” has already decided another poll is due soon.
The alarm bells will be ringing over at BT.
On the issue of hard and soft Nos (though this may not be particularly relevant to a new poll): there are probably a lot of people who will automatically and ‘aggressively’ say they’re not voting for independence, but who may have been warmer to the idea in the past.
One of the reason for this may be that some people still be basing their views on the start of the parliament when it was seen as an expensive waste of money and full of jumped-up councillors (who themselves have been much distrusted by many over a long period of time), and generally not achieving very much. These voters’ dislike of politicians is unfortunately more focused on Holyrood than Westminster.
This group may be crucial to the outcome, though they are probably so switched off that it’ll take some going to get them engaged again.
It’s a big YES from me.
I’d like to see ”our own” Referendum Question being asked .
Passport Questions
If Scotland returned to full sovereign independence & dual nationality was an option, which of these choices would you prefer?
A. Apply for a Scottish passport & keep your British passport
B. Apply for a Scottish passport & return your British passport
C. Do not apply for a Scottish passport but retain your British passport
D. You don’t have a passport but will apply only for a Scottish passport
E. You don’t have a passport but will only apply for a British passport
F. You don’t have a passport & you won’t be applying for either a Scottish or British passport in the foreseeable future
Go for it Rev.
Keep the pressure on.
Question for the ladies.
Who do you think will best protect your family: Independent Scottish Government / UK Government / Neither / Don’t Know
@ianbrotherhood – according to a Tom Gordon tweet, she said the poll was never about MSM coverage, but merely to “fuel grievance”. Even David Torrance was less scathing.
link to twitter.com
Letting personal vendettas get in the way of the bigger picture is pathetic. There are several pro-indy folk I’m less than enamoured with, but I’d never go out of my way to publicly try and rubbish them on such a stage.
@naebd
“I love how Professor John Curtice has evolved from an eye-roll-inducingly over-exposed Scottish TV fixture into The Man From Del Monte of polling credibility|”
Whit!!? Ye mean he’s going to say ‘Yes’? Quick, haud me up.
We should do as many polls as we can. Keep making UKOK nervous so they have lots more opportunity to show themselves up.
Q – Which independence vote would make it more likely that NHS Scotland can keep free prescriptions and keep out privatisation?
Questions for the ladies? Well there are an awful lot of them who with work, shopping, housework, balancing the budget and trying to spend time with their weans, just do not have the time or energy to ponder the future much. So questions that directly impinge on their lives are needed.
I would suggest a set of questions along the lines.
Would you prefer childcare to provided by the nation/ public purse for all who need it or by private business with means testing to reduce costs for the poorest?
Same sort of thing for education, medical care, dentistry, care of elderly/disabled.
Given the huge administrative burden, do you think that means testing is an effective method of providing services.
Would you prefer the police to be employed and funded by the nation or by private companies and paid for by the nation/ public purse?
Do think that a goverment by Edinburgh, Westminster or space monsters would be more likely to deliver your choices?
Well, ok, maybe that isn’t the right slot for aliens option but you get the gist.
I will give a donation but I think it may be too soon, a poll just before the SNP conference would make it more difficult for the MSM to ignore as everyone will be talking about it and there will be foreign observers and media present.
An snp official who had a senior position at the UN calculated at the last conference there was such a large number of foreign observers that half the worlds population was represented in some form
@Doug Daniel-
Cheers. I assume she’s having a dig at Rev, in which case it can be ignored as same-old, same-old. But if she’s undermining the credibility of the poll and impugning the efforts of all here to counter relentless MSM propaganda? That’s another matter.
Kate’s primary concern these days is with trying to impress her new chums in the mainstream media. But she’ll always take a moment to have a swipe at the Rev.
@ Thomas Wildman,
(4) I’d also love to see a heart of hearts question. Something along the lines of, “In your heart of hearts, would you like to vote Yes if you can get your questions answered and your concerns alleviated?”
This is a fantastic point Thomas. If we can show that a far larger proportion do want to vote Yes, (as SS often tells us) then we can better encourage people that they have been effected by the BT/MSM ‘Project Fear’
It gives us another good line: “‘Project Fear’ knows that most people want independence, so they are trying to scare them by lying and deceiving them, into voting No'”
People hate being deceived and lied to. win win as they say.
“I’d also love to see a heart of hearts question.”
There’s currently one in there.
@Doug Daniel 3.06
Excuse my ignorance who and what is Kate Higgins
Kate Higgins doubles as the mainstream media’s token blogger and token female.
Rev,
“Despite an almost-total media blackout, traffic to the site has seen a large spike since we undertook the project, …….”
Let’s face it the MSM are ( clearly) not in the business of giving you free publicity, and irrespective of their bias and political leanings why should they be?
So, I have to ask……why all this fuss about whether or not the main stream media are interested in or going to report the findings of your poll, and particularly your concern about the press acknowledging the source?
I mean, are you interested in gauging public opinion or are you interested in getting publicity and hits on your web-site?
That might sound as though I’m being a little mean spirited here and that’s not my intention, but I do feel that some of your questions were a bit sensation seeking and left you and indeed the whole project open to accusations that it was nothing but a self serving publicity stunt.
I had thought that when you commissioned the survey and used professional pollsters for credibility that they would have given you the benefit of their expertise in questionaire and survey design. Either they didn’t offer that as part of their package/service , you ignored it, or they are cowboys and crap at their job. Your survey has to be both reliable and valid ( and I use these terms in their technical sense), and in this instance with regard to validity it was open to critisism.
Questionaire and survey design is more art than science but it does require skill and expertise. Part of that process involves self critical examination of your own motives to reduce the possibility of them bleeding through to your questions….if you don’t do this others will.
Treat this first attempt as a pilot, don’t waste this learning experience, or the money of your contributors……get another survey commissioned, but without the rush of blood to the head this time.
Incidently, your question about aliens is of a type that isn’t entirely without merit or justification and could have value in establishing a baseline for reliability…..it’s just that, as phrased and in this instance , it deminished validity, particularly face validity. “L tests” and similar have to be a bit more subtle than that to perform their reliability function without compromising validity…..still….lessons learnt, eh?
Looking forward to the next one. As to timing….sooner rather than later……but don’t rush the design.
“So, I have to ask……why all this fuss about whether or not the main stream media are interested in or going to report the findings of your poll, and particularly your concern about the press acknowledging the source?”
To make the point about bias once and for all.
Would an all female poll be out of the question?
I think the uniqueness might generate a lot of publicity.
A poll asking what it is that women are thinking about in the debate or what are their concerns.
It wouldn’t half cut the misogynist smear into shreds!
I voted Go for it,
Will leave the questions to others more informed than I.
Would like to see something on the knowledge of the voters, on what are the Devolved Powers to Scottish Gov. and Reserved Powers to Westminster.
Whatever the questions are the final last one asked in the poll should be the referendum question of “Should Scotland be an independent country?”. Basically having the official question included will make it less likely to be ignored, and having it as the last question asked in the poll we will see if the previous questions have influenced it in any way.
In your heart of hearts, would you like to vote Yes if you can get your questions answered and your concerns alleviated?”
This is like my ‘In an ideal world…’ question.
It will give you the best approximation of the final result possible at this stage. Result should not be too dissimilar to the ‘Would you vote to join the union if Scotland was currently independent’ one.
@ Patrick Roden.
I disagree.
It would play right into their hands.
By all means compare within and between a population sample ( and even test for statistically significant differences if you want)…..but don’t treat them as distinct populations. Please, please don’t
Countdown only 393 days to Referendum Day and due to the magnificence of Wings Over Scotland readers who freely donate, I would suggest full steam ahead with another poll.
@Peter A Bell, you wrote: “If you intend to vote No, how would you describe your attitude now compared with the start of the referendum campaign: A lot less persuaded | Slightly less persuaded | Unchanged | Slightly more persuaded | A lot more persuaded. If you intend to vote Yes, how would you describe your attitude now compared with the start of the referendum campaign: A lot less persuaded | Slightly less persuaded | Unchanged | Slightly more persuaded | A lot more persuaded.”
So long as the straight Yes/No question has been asked elsewhere in the poll, you can put this as a single question and get the answers for Yes and No voters separately by looking at the crosstabs.
You can also get the same effect, but with more precision, by asking them to place themselves on a 1-10 scale now and at the start of the referendum campaign.
Our pre referendum days are numbered so strike when the iron is hot.
Yup – up for another poll. As to the timing, I’m not sure. Instinctively, I feel it would be better to leave it for another month, but it would be important that it doesn’t clash with the independence march or the media will complain that the results were influenced by the march itself and might therefore be temporary (which I disagree with, but they’ll say it).
Re questions – I’m interested in finding out whether voting intention is influenced in any way by whether people think they will get a second bite of the cherry in the event of a No vote. For instance, they may be in favour of indpendence deep down, but don’t think the time is right. They might not be aware that the section 30 order giving the referendum its legitimacy will end at midnight on the referendum date and that Westminster may withhold its consent in the future for another referendum to take place. So, I’m wondering if people thought this was their one and only chance for themselves and their families and it was unlikely they would get another chance, would it change how they would vote?
@Peter A Bell
Thing is you don’t even need the yes or no preamble, that’s information you can extract from the cross tabs as long as you ask the big question. I like it as a question by the way, but it is easier to understand if you leave the language as simple as possible. Possibly phrase it as;
“Regardless of which way you intend to vote in the referendum, compared to when the referendum was announced are you;
“much more persuaded”, “slightly more persuaded”, “unchanged”, “slightly less persuaded” and much less persuaded”.
What you’d get that way would be seeing how much effect the campaign is having in terms of persuading people in both directions, and also whether more people who are undecided now were previously settled.
Actually if you combined that question with a 1-10 scale in terms of how people were intending to vote (ie 1 as a definite no, a 10 as a definite yes) you’d get a really good snapshot of what way the electorate was moving.
It’s too soon for me, but my donation has been sent.
Test.
I think many women still have their heads in the sand regarding the referendum. This is either because they are too busy to engage right now, or because it is just too scary/boring/confusing to thik about.
I don’t believe there are huge differences in the political values of men and women, I think they just have different priorities. As the referendum approaches women will want to know more.
We need to know whether knowledge = yes, so I would recommend asking
1) where they are getting their info on the debate
a) Newspapers
b) BBC
c) STV
d) Internet
e) friends/family
f) I’m not interested in learning more
Also
2) How well informed do they think they are (sliding scale from not at all, to very well informed)
Will be interesting to see if people who rely solely on MSM believe they are well informed. The second question is, I believe, a good marker question and it can be repeated over time to see whether people move towards yes, as they learn more.
I say this as a female who has come to yes through educating myself (thanks in many ways to sites like this one). This time last year, I was a don’t know/no but only because I didn;t know any better. I have always been a ‘yes’ in my heart, but I didn’t think we could do it.
I agree it would also be interesting to know how many people also feel ‘yes’ at heart.
Count me in.
I’ve tried to post this for the last 10 minutes. Anyone else having problems. Using my Android phone.
Is there any way to find out what is preventing voters from voting Yes? I mean, it’s not too hard to figure out when you’re talking to somebody, but a poll like this needs to list a finite number of options.
@Thomas Widmann at 3:56
I think my menstrual cycle may be synching up with yours 🙂
To answer the question above, regarding who or what is Kate Higgins, I’m no expert by any means and have never met the person so I could be wrong, but as far as I can tell from comments she allegedly makes, she is a ‘pro unionist’ blogger, who surprisingly blogs for the pro independence website Bella Caledonia.
But I probably only think that because I’m a man.
As my granny would say, ‘if it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck……
Vote YES in 2014, so we can party all through 2015.
Juteman
Menwith Hill is currently experiencing unusually high traffic volumes. Possibly the Greenwald effect.
You were probably in a queue.
@wee 162: 🙂
@Robert Louis
Vote YES in 2014, so we can party all through 2015.
Robert – you silver-tongued devil! Who could say No to that? 🙂
I like red squirrel’s NHS question. Bring to the public’s attention the NHS chasm ever deepening in England.
Kate Higgins has become awfully modest – why do they want little me with just a little knowledge of some subjects? – is the lady set for turning I wonder?
Kate Higgins is a complete fraud ! Used to be trotted-out as a ”SNP Blogger”….no chance ! ….She’s a unionist and good friend of Ian Smart . They once called themselves ”Richard and Judy”…….She is NOT to be trusted.
I’m up for another poll, but I wouldn’t want it to clash with the coverage pro-Indy will get with the release of the White Paper or Carlton Hill events.
When the results come in, rather than ‘tweets’ to journos with links to WoS, I’d suggest a précis of 400-500 worlds of the findings to be issued as a press release to the likes of Reuters, Associated Press, owners and editors of MSM circulations, and also trade press if there’s any questions on employment, construction, oil & gas etc. By all means publicise on twitter but, as Bell/McWhirter noted, they have no control over editorial content.
On questions, I like Elizabeth’s idea on devolved vs reserved powers. List 5 or 6 and ask if it’s devolved or reserved. Follow up with a question related to Barnett, e.g. are you aware that PFI contracts/privatisation in England reduces funding in Scottish NHS / Scottish capital projects.
Or how about, Scotland contributed circa £600million to the Iraq war, over £600million on new aircraft carriers, where would you rather have seen the money spent?
or, would you rather have a panda than a prince?
Given that Westminster has wrongly portrayed Scots as reliant on handouts from England will this affect how you vote in the referendum? Might focus a few minds.
I wouldn’t worry too much about a potential clash of the release of the poll results with MSM coverage of the rally. Coverage that there is of the rally will be downplayed and scornful in tone, regardless of what the poll says – and regardless of the size of the rally. Tom Gordon’s sneering tweets last year from Edinburgh act as a good indicator of MSM coverage this year too.
Even if 100,000 people turn out next month (which isn’t realistic because it isn’t a protest march against a burning wrong), they’ll be tweeting that it’s only 3% of the electorate.
I have not yet read all the comments yet, so apologies if this point has already been suggested.
The one topic that the media really love discussing is the media itself so I would include a couple of really searching questions about the public’s attitude to newspapers, television and radio stations and their reporting of the referendum. This could have the happy effect of getting the various anti-independence mouthpieces turning on each other.
I think the “space monsters” questions was successful in getting our poll recognised, if only to ridicule it, so i would suggest another along those lines, perhaps with the focus of who people would vote for as an elected head of state. Include a couple of belters like Sean Connery, David Murray, Tommy Sheridan, Lord Ffoulkes … you get the idea.
@scottish-skier
“n your heart of hearts, would you like to vote Yes if you can get your questions answered and your concerns alleviated?”
This is like my ‘In an ideal world…’ question.
It will give you the best approximation of the final result possible at this stage. Result should not be too dissimilar to the ‘Would you vote to join the union if Scotland was currently independent’ one.”
My question, which is designed to ask them to imagine that Scotland would not be worse of financially and say then if they would vote Yes, is obviously similar in that all three, with a Yes majority would indicate that the ‘true’ aspiration of Scots is for independence.
However, where it differs, and I did this deliberately, is that by singling out fiscal concerns, it takes the argument to an area where it would (or should, if we had a normally distributed MSM) be easy to demonstrate that the claims made by unionists are wrong and, if deliberate on their part, morally bankrupt.
i.e. all you would then need to do would be to prove that the fiscal scaremongering is wrong to establish that those who continue to scaremonger are thwarting the genuine desire of Scots for independence and on very shaky moral ground.
There is much less likeliehood, IMO, that all the secondary and tertiary concerns can or would be allayed between now and the referendum. But, as luck would have it, the main one, fiscal concerns, can be allayed.
Not saying we should only concentrate on fiscal concerns. Anything else which can be feasibly debunked in the interim, should be.
However, if we only need one to tip the response to a Yes and it is one which can establish that the Us are using scaremongering and lies to thwart the ‘heart felt’, ‘ideal’ aspirations of the people. That is a biggie. Especially if they go on doing so once it has been proven to be incorrect.
Hope I managed to get the idea over, bit busy today.
We should definitely stick with Panelbase. It would be better for spotting trends, and to change pollsters would be tacit acceptance of the naysayers’ criticisms.
Kate Higgins is a complete fraud … She’s a unionist
Nah.
Patrick Roden above floated the idea of an all-female poll.
Interesting idea, but only viable if there was a corresponding all-male poll. Do WoS readers’ donations stretch to that? And would different questions be asked from women/men? (Which would render the poll useless for comparisons.)
I also find it a bit demaning to men to assume that they’re not interested in “family issues”. I should hope that every dad is very interested in family income, childcare, children’s healthcare, their education etc.
Or what about women who do not have husbands or children? Are they not “women”?
It’s a quaqmire, so better to stick with well-established polling practices, i.e. getting about 50/50 responses male/female.
Of course, the apparent fact remains that women are less likely to vote YES than men, more women are DK, and it would be important to find out WHY, so that the YES campaign can target their message. I just don’t think WoS should spend its meagre resources in doing a comprehensive sociological survey of Scots (men and women) at this point – university sociology departments are supposed to do that.
I would say go for it. Count me in for a small donation.
Definitely repeat the questions about further powers, trust in the media and rejoining the union.
Would like to determine what would make NO / Undecided / Labour voters more likely to vote YES.
And if the Tories were likely to win again, would that change your vote?
Perhaps a question on Scottish / British identities.
And if we will ever get another chance to vote for independence?
I suppose many referendum questions have already been polled, but are kept private for fear that it will be of use to the other side also.
But it would be good to see some more information out there.
@naebd
Kate Higgins is a complete fraud … She’s a unionist
Nah.
If Higgins is not then what is she trying to achieve? Why does it appear that she is always willing to take pot shots at her own side? What does this achieve?
I note Higgins being referred to briefly in Murray Ritchie’s book that I was reading last week. I think she was an SNP candidate somewhere in the south-west in the 1999 election.
Perhaps a speaker at the rally could point the finger at certain bloggers (no names, of course) and ask them to put aside personal gripes and set their sights on the higher cause that is the independence of their country.
It’s the “I’ve been in the SNP for 40 years so nobody else’s opinion counts and nobody else’s contribution is valuable” routine that bugs me.
I was talking to one of our activists the other day, a woman who has been in the SNP for 45 years. I wondered (aloud) if maybe Kate would defer to her?
muttley79, you got me – Kate Higgins, long time member of the SNP and supporter of Independence for Scotland is clearly a Unionist, because she’s got a bee in her bunnet about Stuart Campbell, resulting in Drama.
…Maybe finding that laughable makes me a Sekrit Unionist.
lumilumi
How about
Two 1000+ polls, one for the boys and one for the girls, crowd-funded?
Some questions the same, others not.
Now that would be different!
Rev , I will go with whatever you decide .
I am more than willing to donate as I missed the last one due to how quick people were in donating .
Personally I’d be waiting for the fuss over the year to go/rally/white paper dies down where there will be a good excuse to ignore some “irrelevant cybergnat poll” as there will be a lot of other commentary over those times. I’d be inclined to think carefully for a while and delay till the dull bit after Christmas and go full pelters from there on in.
On the existing answers, I’m wondering on whether there is a difference on respondents Saying they will not be influenced by the press and whether they actually are. Willing to bet that there are many who are influenced but don’t like to admit it even to themselves.
“How about two 1000+ polls, one for the boys and one for the girls, crowd-funded?”
How about 4 polls.
Male < 40yrs
Male > 40yrs
Female <40yrs
Female >40yrs
Or perhaps these 4 polls could be merged together by just having one poll and recording folks’ age and gender…
Robert Louis says:
Vote YES in 2014, so we can party all through 2015.
How about “Would you prefer to attend a Party or a Wake in 2015”?
@Naebd
muttley79, you got me – Kate Higgins, long time member of the SNP and supporter of Independence for Scotland is clearly a Unionist, because she’s got a bee in her bunnet about Stuart Campbell, resulting in Drama.
…Maybe finding that laughable makes me a Sekrit Unionist.
Hang on. I never said Higgins was a Unionist. All I was saying was I do not understand her motivation for attacking pro-independence people. That is all.
Ooh I like Iainbrotherhood’s idea of asking if people have heard of the McCrone report. It is a very good barometer of how much penetration the pro-indy side’s arguments have. Once awareness and understanding of the McCrone report exceeds 50%, independence surely won’t be far behind.
Also like scaredycat’s ‘where do you get your information from’ question.
I posted a NO, but after reading through all the posts, there are enough sensible questions to
filter them into two or three poles, but as ever the questions must be short, clear, and to the
point, also, how do you select what section or sections of society , to zero you questions to?.
scottish_skier says:
20 August, 2013 at 3:46 pm
In your heart of hearts, would you like to vote Yes if you can get your questions answered and your concerns alleviated?”
This is like my ‘In an ideal world…’ question.
It will give you the best approximation of the final result possible at this stage. Result should not be too dissimilar to the ‘Would you vote to join the union if Scotland was currently independent’ one.
Really can’t agree on that this wouldn’t provide any useful information, i certainly couldn’t answer it as my answer would depend on what the answers I received if I could”get my questions answered”
“Really can’t agree on that this wouldn’t provide any useful information, i certainly couldn’t answer it as my answer would depend on what the answers I received if I could”get my questions answered””
You may have somewhat missed the point of the question.
The candle of indepence has been carried by the SNP for so long that maybe some old, seasoned veterans can’t believe the new support for independence, and are a bit wary at first.
I just spent my holidays in Scotland, and most of my previously apolitical (except hating Thatcher) Scottish friends were YES or DK, no-one confessed to being NO.
We didn’t talk politics but the referendum came up a couple of times, instigated by them, not me. What a difference. In the early 1990s they were the Trainspotting kind (“Scotland is a shit country and…”) and now they have new national pride. Firstly a reconvened Scottish Praliament at Holyrood, then minority SNP government, who did a good job, better than Westmister. Some of my friends have never voted but voted for the SNP in 2011. Some are going to vote YES, some don’t know yet. My Tory friend is going to vote YES. The change is palpable. Scots have realised Scotland is a real country. It’s a short leap to realising they can do things differently from Westmister, if only they vote YES.
I voted YES but only if you are going to investigate why women are not as enthusiastic for indy as men.
Inspired by scardycat saying “I have always been a ‘yes’ in my heart, but I didn’t think we could do it.”
“Regardless of how you intend to vote in the referendum, do you believe that Scotland could be successful as an independent country.”
Obviously this has it’s dangers but I feel it addresses the fear/lack of confidence issue which may be the biggest hurdle. It identifies the scale of that hurdle.
@muttley79
RevStu is the wrong kind of pro-independence person – “male, pale and stale” to borrow a quote.
The naive might imagine that Kate Higgins’ actions have provided the answer to her own question as to why she was invited to the Herald’s sponsored event.
Although we have to bear in mind that the legendarily impartial Herald has recently been covering the Rev’s poll completely fairly while welcoming uncensored comment on his findings and it would be manifestly absurd to suppose that they had any interest in inviting someone who might traduce the Rev’s poll.
This is further supported by Tom Gordon’s dispassionate tweets today.
Just clicked ” No ” thinking it too soon, but what if another poll was carried out shortly but the results were held back and released everytime Better Together put out a statement/lie about Independence – this way we would be plaing them at their own game – Press release countering Press release
Putting aside any concerns you may have over the prospect of Scottish independence, in an ideal world, would you like Scotland to be an independent country?
Really can’t agree on that this wouldn’t provide any useful information, i certainly couldn’t answer it as my answer would depend on what the answers I received if I could”get my questions answered”
Note sure if you were on about my question…
As noted, it would give you something close to the referendum result.
Referendum day won’t be all foreboding and full of fear. Might rain, possibly windy, but no Mordor style darkness on the horizon. No people running screaming in horror through the streets. No fires and rioting breaking out. No people coming down with horrible diseases.
Saying Yes will be a simple enough matter and perfectly safe. The world will singularly fail to end. And after all, standing in that booth… it’s just one vote. Hardly going to change the results. Butterflies of course, but Yes.
Nobody who likes the idea of independence will vote against it. If they are really that scared they’ll stay at home.
Q. In the event of a NO vote, do you think the NHS will be privatised as it is in England and Wales?
How do you read all of these Stu? I’ll make mine brief do more polls!
I’m saying the point of the question isn’t going to be served by the question.
Further if I’ve missed the point and i already know what it’s about, how is it going to elicit a sensible answer from someone who isn’t familiar with the topic.
Can a question be asked along the lines of:
Was Scotland “extinguished” by the 1707 Act of Union?
question 1:
when the referendum was announced, which best describes your view at that time?
a) no
b) devo lite
c) devo max
d) yes
question 2:
how would you vote if the referendum was today?
a) no
b) yes
I’ve voted yes, (natural instinct) but wonder if there is more mileage out the 1st one to be had? I’ll support it either way.
Brilliant, can’y wait.
Can I suggest not using the question;
What is the capital of France?
A. F
B. Paris
It will only confuse things.
Luddite number 2 !
I am happy to send a cheque need details !
”
scottish_skier says:
20 August, 2013 at 6:26 pm
Note sure if you were on about my question…
”
Oh … really confused now… that’s not the proposed question I was commenting on seems I have double posted copying the wrong thing at 6.00 & 6.09? in my attempt to protect my anonymity elsewhere I can’t remember doing that!!!..
edit: in writing this I see that when i attempt to cut and paste from above is resulting in stuff from a different post to what i think I’ve coppied turning up sorry must read before hitting the button in future.
The question I was referring to was:
“in your heart of hearts, would you like to vote Yes if you can get your questions answered and your concerns alleviated?”
my point being that the given answer to that is dependant on the answers recieved IE ..I don’t know what the answers to my questions are so I can’t answer this one.
PS if the rev would like to send me an Email I will reply explaining why I havn’t used my real name in these posts I haven’t discovered how to send him one without it being publicly visible.
“PS if the rev would like to send me an Email I will reply explaining why I havn’t used my real name in these posts I haven’t discovered how to send him one without it being publicly visible.”
You MAY have given it away in your email address 😀
But if you drop me a line via the Wings contact page I’d be fascinated to chat.
Here is a question for a poll
How do you understand the Treaty of Union 1706
a) Scotland was taken over by England
b) Scotland was taken over by the United Kingdom
c) Scotland and England agree to combine parliaments and create the United Kingdom
d) Scotland was invaded by Space monsters and England saved the day
I didn’t contribute to the first because I didn’t notice. I want to contribute to the second, how do I go about this? I am not the most technologically minded bear on the block!
I’m up for a donation. I like the idea of a male and female only poll too, more so to see what the ‘official’ break down roughly is.
Much like if going for a golf handicap, use this one as another guiding hand to see what the state of play is and preferably Yes are working on converting more women into the Yes fold.
Following on from various comments in the “What Women Don’t Want” thread, I’d suggest the following two questions aimed towards female voters:
Which, if any, of the following do you have concerns about in an independent Scotland?
Health
Social Security
Education
Housing
Justice/Legal System
Social Work
Emergency Services
Defence Policy
BroadcastingTV
etc.
Followed by:
Which, if any, of the following did you realise are already controlled separately in Scotland?
Health
Education
Housing
Justice/Legal System
Social Work
Emergency Services
etc.
This might help to get to the nub of women’s concerns, as well as raise awareness of just what is already separate. and how close we already are to being a separate state.
And we already know that the majority of Scots want Welfare under Holyrood control, and we all know that controlling our own Defence is the only way to get rid of Trident, so it makes indy look like just a couple of easy-peasy steps away. Hopefully.
But surely only you can see that!
“Mail (will not be published) (required)”
I can see what everyone else has written there and I wasn’t sure that what went in the form at the top wouldn’t appear, I’m assuming that’s the case now and only stuff written in the comments at the bottom turns up? Need reassurance though.
“Need reassurance though.”
Only I can see people’s email addresses.
The question I was referring to was:
Ok, got you. My moniker got caught up.
I think that complicates the heart of hearts question as you say. Why not just – as I suggested – ask them to put concerns aside say whether they’d like independence? Much like the ‘would you vote to join the union’ but more directly applicable.
People just need to be convinced the sky won’t fall in. Its clearly failing to do so and that is becoming obvious. As the day gets closer, it still won’t have fallen in. On the way to the polling both it will still refuse to fall in. At that point, nervous voters will be very confident that it won’t fall in if they vote Yes.
Not only that, but they’ll know exactly what they are voting for, with everything agreed between the Scottish Government and the UK, the EU, Nato etc. All out in the open. Independence will offer more certainty than the UK. Thus people who like the idea of independence will have no reason not to vote Yes.
It can’t be any other way. I’ve said many times that negotiations always occur before ‘official’ independence referenda. Only if you are doing it totally ‘illegally’ or with guns and stuff do negotiations happen after. When DC signed the Edinburgh Agreement, so the negotiations began. We’ll hear the results in due course and well before voting day. They’ve even said subtly they plan to do this; that’s what the ‘joint statement’ will be about. Were people surprised the Scottish Government were meeting ‘informally’ with NATO? Wasn’t informal at all.
We vote Yes and that’s it. London doesn’t control Scotland from the moment the result is announced. That’s democracy. Hence, for stability, it will all be agreed beforehand.
So the referendum question will be ‘Scotland or Region of Britain – take your pick’. Hence my question regarding what people would like deep down.
Can’t tell you in case I get in trouble
You have us interested, but your name/e-mail is safe. Only the Rev can see.
Ianbrotherhood at 12.25 pm 20 Aug
A question to reveal/raise awareness of the McCrone report. Please.
And another to make it absolutely clear that NHS Scotland is a separate entity from the English one.
Also, a question which would ram home YES advantages to women. I don’t know what it should be but surely we could have a crowd brainstorming session to come up with a question?
It’s duller than you think, right now though I’m late – the rev will have to wait for the anti-climax till I get back 🙂
I voted to go for it. Will happily donate as soon as you give the nod. I missed out on contributing to the last one as you had already screamed out for no more donations by time my wages arrived (impressive result from the excellent readers here in a very short space of time).
Could I suggest (and apologies if someone else has already said this) that you have a donations tab constantly open for the likes of this, a kind of ‘fighting/campaign fund’ that we can drop a few pennies in when we can? Can be used for polls whenever the balance reaches required amount, or other events as you and the readers choose. Means those of us who want to contribute to specific events/polls but don’t always have the ready cash at the time.
On the ‘female question’… I posted elsewhere (think it was the survey thread), most women I know are just not that into politics to the extent of reading blogs, taking part in polls etc, too busy with work, families, home life etc, however definitely intend to vote Yes as they see it as only way to secure a better future for their children.
Regards and thanks for all the effort you put in here 🙂
“Could I suggest (and apologies if someone else has already said this) that you have a donations tab constantly open for the likes of this, a kind of ‘fighting/campaign fund’ that we can drop a few pennies in when we can?”
link to wingsoverscotland.com
On Kate, just because two people agree on a destination doesn’t mean that they agree on route or mode of transport. The No side have taken a fair bit of internal flak too over tactics and personnel. Blunkett and Co presumably want a Labour government in 2015 but they still put the boot into Milliband and his performance.
This is politics…also as Jim Morrison pointed out, “people are strange”
It’s duller than you think, right now though I’m late
Ah-ha. Got you. How’s the back by the way? Sorry the weather was a bit wild.
😉
Hi Rev, I may have misinterpreted but I thought the ‘donate’ link was more about keeping this excellent site going, whereas I was thinking of a separate one for polls etc. Probably a crap idea but just a thought as was gutted that I missed out on contributing to last poll.
“whereas I was thinking of a separate one for polls etc”
Aha. It’s probably safest just to run one for polls when we need to. Any overspill can always be saved for the next one, as has happened this time. I don’t want to be asking folk for money every other week.
Some eedjit: Higgins is a Unionist!!!
Me: Higgins isnt a Unionist.
muttley79: If Higgins is not a Unionist then what is she trying to achieve?
Me: [sarcasm]
muttley79: Hang on. I never said Higgins was a Unionist.
Jesus. Wept.
bunter says at 1.39 pm 20 Aug 13
Just noticed that the Heralds YES hacking story has had most of the comments wiped. Another hack? very strange.
I doubt it. When I went there to look earlier in the day there seemed to be much confusion as to what the “BT” mentioned by the police actually meant. Since it was hacking I assumed it was British Telecom but many of the posters were using BT as if it meant Better Together and making quite daft comments because of that. MInd you I wasn’t absolutely sure what “BT” meant.
Scottish_skier says:
So the referendum question will be ‘Scotland or Region of Britain’ –
I get this totally – its always bugged me when ‘True Scots’ politicians talk about the wider country or ‘nationally’ meaning ‘Britain’, I feel immediately swindled by the union where my nation has been demoted to a region.
Someone will know how to word this better I’m sure
But essentially the case is for the question / am I right Scottish Skier ?
Vote YES for an Independent country called Scotland
Vote No for a dependent northern region of Britain called Scotland
I think the heart-of-hearts question will be interesting, but let’s not pretend that it translates directly to the referendum result.
If people have concerns about the viability of Independence, there’s nothing to dictate that these concerns will somehow dissolve on referendum day. Perhaps, just perhaps, people will weigh up their concerns and then vote on the basis that their vote will have an effect, rather than by ignoring their concerns and voting with their hearts. It’s naive to believe that people will simply discard their concerns because the ‘sky isn’t falling’ as they walk to the polling station.
I’m up for contributing to another poll asap.
Also up for putting you in touch with one of the Scottish MSM titles, following post-Speigel tent chats today, to discuss cooperation etc. Email me or let me know how to contact you and I will pass on their contact details as requested by them.
“Also up for putting you in touch with one of the Scottish MSM titles, following post-Speigel tent chats today, to discuss cooperation etc. Email me or let me know how to contact you and I will pass on their contact details as requested by them.”
As always, get in touch via the Contact page:
link to wingsoverscotland.com
By the way I reckon heart-of-hearts will give a result close to the hypothetical posed in the first survey – the 50% to 18% one.
@Scottish Skier 7:37 pm – Just about choked on mah pizza. In your dreams!
I like the idea of a poll in time for the build up to the Calton Hill gathering in September. It would be politically astute to get Prof Curtice to collaborate on the questions and why not stick with Panel Base, but also run the same questions at the same time on an Ipsos Mori poll. Then you’d have two sets of reponses to compare, it would be incredibly hard to ignore, and I bet that the readers would dip a wee bit deeper into the back of the sofa etc to make it happen.
Naebd,
55% to 18% one.
Iam in accordance with many of the posts on this site & others & believe its imperative that the consequences of a no vote should be highlighted in some shape or form within the upcoming poll ie SNHS / NHS etc…
Oops – yep, cheers Braco.
I know one person (female) who when I asked “if you knew it would turn out fantastic would you STILL vote no?” answered “I’d still vote no!”. No accounting for some people.
naebither naebd!
I was thinking of upping my monthly subs to Yes for the last year of the campaign but would happily retain the dough to use for WOS opinion polls. My logic is that the Yes campaign is targeted as an SNP stooge, that ok I dont agree with but mud sticks.
I like the idea mentioned by others of running the questions by Mr Curtis. He is a public servant paid by us taxpayers and felt obliged to disparage the last poll. I would have thought he would be honour bound to have a look at the questions and cast his expert eye over them. He could be very useful if we could get him onside as it were. Then if we can drum up enough money why not go for a poll at least every two months. Contact Channel 4 by the way after the second one and I am sure their news would highlight both the polls and the method of funding.
I’ll donate as well. I’m another who would like to see a question regarding the McCrone report included.
“I’ll donate as well. I’m another who would like to see a question regarding the McCrone report included.”
In the previous poll we considered a question asking what things people had heard of, but after McCrone and Tony Blair’s sea-grab nobody came up with any other good examples.
I think we need a media blitz campaign after the next poll is done. Maybe the Rev won’t agree, so not much point in going into detail but I think we should all be ready to launch a ‘poll awareness onslaught‘ after the publication. We all get ready and signed up with Disqus, newspapers, broadcasters, twitter, Facebook, linked-in groups and any other form of communication we can think of to spread the word.
Also we might think of media outside the UK, including the news agencies, because we know they’re interested and they don’t have an anti-yes agenda. So North/South American, Australasian, Scandinavian, European, African, Asian, Middle Eastern – have I left anyone out? So if you know people in, say, Catalonia, get them mobilised.
Just a wee thought to try put the screws on the MSM.
Long time looker. Good luck.
Sent contribution using the google option.
Works fine for me:
Keep up the pressure, good work.
If you’ve got some good questions to ask,then Yes,run a poll.And send the results to media around the globe as others have suggested.
How about ‘Should Scotland not be an independent country?” If not, why not a, b, c, etc
As Scotland’s largest political party, Wings should be conducting regular polls 🙂
I say yes to this on the basis that the MSM and their defenders have rolled out the lame duck excuses as to why they never covered it. So what excuses are they going to use next time. Get Prof JC involved and give him a couple of his own poll questions as a reward.
Don’t know if this has been suggested here today. Present the results on advertising billboards. This could be done strategically i.e. locations. I don’t know what the costs for this would be.
The problem with another poll so soon is that it will be ignored again, and dismissed as an WoS attention seeking stunt, no matter what the results show.
You caught the media with their pants down last time. They’ll be monitoring this site and preparing their response ( or lack thereof ) as we speak.
Stu, I’ll say it for the third time now…. Your next poll should occur after the white paper, when the public have more facts to hand and a greater likelihood of a further shift in opinion.
Afterall if this is a war of momentum to sway opinion and a means of felling the media bias, you’d best make sure your next strike is a fatal one for the NO campaign and their media buddies. Timing is everything.
Fund a single comprehensive poll after the white paper and commission all main pollsters to ask the same questions on the same day.
This way you put overwhelming evidence in the public domain, and a means to differentiate between the reliable and not so reliable polling methods used across the spectrum, thus exposing the less reputable pollsters.
Oh, and as for suggested questions …. well lets’s just say it’s time we nailed the BBC for their bias. 😉
“Fund a single comprehensive poll after the white paper and commission all main pollsters to ask the same questions on the same day.
This way you put overwhelming evidence in the public domain, and a means to differentiate between the reliable and not so reliable polling methods used across the spectrum, thus exposing the less reputable pollsters.”
1. Madly expensive.
2. Every poll discredits the other. How do you tell which is “correct”?
3. You learn nothing, for a lot of money, and get mocked for wasting people’s cash on useless results, unless by some freak chance they all come out the same.
Napoleon Bonaparte is credited with once saying “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”.
WoS should be very careful to ensure that these polls aren’t obtaining and publishing information that might persuade Better together to abandon its Project Fear campaign.
Like the Peter Bell question but agree it could be a single question.
It has been suggested that the reason the poll was ignored was because it did not include a simple, ‘How would you vote in the referendum if it were held tomorrow?’ question.
Sheesht so many comments!
I was going to say “no to early” however after thinking about it and reading the comments it looks like a go-er so I voted yes. If it is a go I hope that it serves to keep the pressure on, and a wee hint at a third poll may give “No Scotland” something to think about.
1. I agree, it is madly expensive, but not beyond our means … Don’t baulk at expensive purchases, if they deliver priceless results. (and yes, I accept it is a big if ..)
2, Most polls will confirm the others, those with poor practice will stick out, but much more importantly … casting multiple polls on the same day is newsworthy in itself. The first WoS poll finally got main stream attention of itself, not for its results (which the media plagiarised but did not openly acknowledge) but because it was crowd funded. A unique event in politics.
3. Your last reply is just mean. …. the only poll that really counts is next year. …. and don’t discount the likelihood of most of the polls showing very similar results. The amount learned from any given poll is determined by the questions asked. Asking lots of different bodies to carry the poll slays any potential for dismissing the results as a one off.
It’s the weight of evidence of combined polls, and the unique angle of such an audacious move that will utterly stump the media, and force the story into every household.
Anyhoo, my thoughts are only one of hundreds, and whatever you decide, I’ll back you with my wallet as well as my words.:)
Happy to donate,
If Scotland votes YES, what should be given priority ?
If Scotland votes No what should be given priority ?
The cheque is in the post! BTW Im not sure its wise to involve Curtis. It might just leak to BT. I would prefer Prof Mitchell or DR Peter Lynch.
Here is my question for what its worth.
According to the Legatum Prosperity Index, the six most prosperous nations in the world are of a similar size to Scotland. The UK is 13th.
Do you think an independent Scotland could be as prosperous as Norway, Denmark, New Zealand, Finland, Switzerland and Ireland? Yes NO
I’m donating, but only if I get an honour in our new Scotland. 🙂
Question.Will you be Definately voting.
Reason, I know plenty of guys who don’t vote, and never have.
“Napoleon Bonaparte is credited with once saying “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”.
WoS should be very careful to ensure that these polls aren’t obtaining and publishing information that might persuade Better together to abandon its Project Fear campaign”
If they abandon Project Fear they are left with nothing, ziltch, bugger all!
When you do decide to go ahead
can you put up the link for paying our contribution
But timing will be everything for the poll
Question 1: The 2011 Census recorded that 58% of people in England (32.4 million respondents) identified as English only. Therefore at least more than 50% of all UK residents (UK residents of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) identify as NOT British. Does British identity influence how you shall vote?
Question 2: Should Scotland be a dependent country?
Question3: Should Scotland be an INdependent country?
Luigi says:
20 August, 2013 at 2:09 pm
The Edinburgh Agreement has been signed. A second question (e.g on devo max) will not be asked in the referendum. Which of the following explanations is closest to your opinion of what really happened?
1) Alex Salmond got everything he wanted.
2) David Cameron got everything he wanted.
3) A compromise was reached, benefiting both sides equally.
4) A compromise was reached, favouring the Scottish government.
5) A compromise was reached, favouring Westminster.
6) None of these.
2) David Cameron got everything he wanted.
@Jake, I take your point friend,
this is why I asked the question: is it out of the question, as I thought their may be the obvious or not so obvious pitfalls.
The idea that we could do two one male one female, sounds good in theory, but like some other posters have said, if we want do that, then we would be better just asking the sex of the respondents and analysing the differences.
Something Rev has done already.
Suggest including the actual referendum question
“Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes / No”
So that a direct comparison be made with the other polls using the above question.
What kind of poll is ‘a referendum’?
a) Voters make a decision on a specific issue.
b) Voters choose their favoured candidates from a list.
c) Voters select a political party which best represents their views on a specific issue.
Is it too ambitious to have about 10 polls from now to the referendum? I’d like to think we could manage that for ourselves and perhaps have the Indy question at the end of each one.
I know we are running a positive campaign but I would suggest a question
What impact do you think a no vote will have on:
The health service
Education
council tax and services
@Rannoch
“Suggest including the actual referendum question
“Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes / No”
So that a direct comparison be made with the other polls using the above question.”
I understand the worth of using this question as a control, i.e. a gauge on how the randomly selected sample compares to other polls, and is justifiable on that basis.
However, if it is used for that purpose, then logically, it negates the suggestion of several others here to put the question at the end of the survey, where the presumption is made that having been made to think about things, the respondent would be more inclined to vote yes.
I can understand the desire to have a larger Yes result, but that would only have the intended effect if it were asked repeatedly in a series of polls. As a one off (or the first in a series) a larger Yes result would only invite accusations of ‘rogue sample’ from the usual suspects and therefore only serve to diminish any pro-indy results on the other questions.
In fact, if asked at the end, even a whole series of results with larger Yes support than other polls, would be questioned because of that with accusations of ‘leading’ even though, as I have pointed out, the indy question in Prof Curtice’s preferred SSSA poll itself appears in the middle of it after questions which, IMO, might cause concern about indy and before questions which, IMO, cause people to think more positively about normal levels of self government.
Putting the indy question at the end is a no win situation, if it is going in it should be the first on the questionnaire.
One of the main reasons the Americans dropped two atomic bombs on Japan was to convince the Japanese and, more importantly, the Soviets that they could afford to do it, that Hiroshima was not just a one-off and there was more to come.
If we run a second poll relatively soon after the first we will be showing our opponents and the media that we can afford as many polls as we want, and there will be a definite implication of more to follow.
@kirrieoroch
“Question 2: Should Scotland be a dependent country?
Question3: Should Scotland be an INdependent country?”
I have often used the antonym of ‘independent’ in posts, leaflets and slogans in the past and made tongue in cheek question suggestions like that up. But, although accurate, I don’t think it would be advised since pointing out people’s ‘dependency mentality’ does not go down well and takes time to have the desired effect.
While we are still in tongue and cheek mode, here is another in a similar ‘true but unusable’ category.
Some people feel guilty that with independence Scotland would leave the rest of the UK in a more impoverished state. Thinking about that, should an independent Scotland have an rUK aid program, for example food donations to food banks? Y/N
Chic,
My thinking on putting the referendum question at the end of a list of questions on each subsequent poll is to get a nearer reflection of what the actual result will be.
I’m no expert and I quite willingly accept I could be wrong.
So my reasoning for that question being at the end is that this will expose the subject to some political thinking as I would expect most voters to do some of, nearer to 18 September.
As I said before, my logic may be flawed but if having the Indy question at the end ( of say, 10 questions ) creates a higher Yes percentage than what the actual result would be, and putting it first makes it lower then without other input, there must be a middle ground, maybe Q5 or Q6.
Therefore, I’m suggesting adding the input of a modicum of political awareness to the formula will give us a figure much nearer the mark.
But WTFDIK, I’m just a daft bricklayer.
Breastplate
Understand what you are saying, just that any plus on the Yes to indy support over the current average in polls will be interpreted, wilfully of course, by the No brigade as indicating a rogue sample and that other results would need to be viewed in that light.
Indeed, we wouldn’t know ourselves if they were right or not.
And even if we did a whole series of polls with the question coming last and it produced higher indy supporting results, they would claim the methodology was leading or that, somehow. the pollster was consistently selecting more indy supporters than other polls.
If the question is asked first, it should provide valid comparison monitor.
BTW my father-in-law was a bricklayer and there is another well known activist here in Angus who is a retired bricklayer, both of them highly intelligent and well informed individuals.
Hod on a minute…. (sorry) Isn’t the point though to ask questions that the other polls aren’t asking and therefore elicit useful information we don’t currently have?
Before commissioning a further poll by Panelbase ask them when they will next be releasing data relating to the Referendum from any other poll commissioned. You don’t want to have two lots released at the same time.
Chic,
I think the No mob will dismiss any polls that don’t suit their agenda and why I would be unwilling to hand them a low Yes stat deliberately. I would prefer what I would think is a more accurate Yes figure that we could trumpet for ourselves and ignore the Bitters.
I do realise people can see it differently and I am happy to follow the Rev’s conclusion.
After 20 odd years I don’t do bricklaying anymore as I am what the Americans would call a stay at home dad, looking after a 5 year old and a 1 year old. I don’t get much time to keep up with the posts so please forgive my late reply.