Eleven little indians
The media has been strangely silent today about the apparent missing of yet another deadline in the Rangers saga – yesterday was supposed to be the day Duff & Phelps actually sent out the mythical CVA proposal, but as yet there’s no public sign of it. Bizarrely, STV News reports that the document sent out to creditors doesn’t actually specify the percentage being offered, so we can’t see how it even counts as one.
It’s relevant because the CVA represents the only chance of Rangers automatically playing in the SPL next season, without having to beg the other 11 clubs to admit them directly as a newco – something that most commentators agree will happen anyway, on the grounds of self-interest. But just how well-founded is that belief?
As the fiasco drags on (and on and on and on), we’re constantly warned that the loss of the travelling Rangers support, among other things, will cripple the SPL’s smaller clubs. Many of the less-considered assertions of this claim centre on an inexplicable belief that should Rangers go out of business or be demoted to the SFL Division Three nobody would replace them, and that what would have been home fixtures for other SPL clubs against Rangers will be replaced by vacant Saturdays in a succession of empty, tumbleweed-strewn stadia.
But a reader comment on one story sent us scurrying off to our Big Book Of Scottish Football Stats again, and produced a surprising result.
Were Rangers to be unable to enter a team in the SPL for season 2012-13, they would logically be replaced by Dundee FC, who finished 2nd in SFL1. So just for fun, we checked out some attendances from the last time the Dens Park outfit played in the top division, season 2004-05.
Dundee Utd total home attendances vs Dundee: 20,963 (two matches)
Dundee Utd total home attendances vs Rangers: 10,461 (one match)
We can immediately see two things. Dundee Utd’s average attendance for home derbies with their neighbours is slightly HIGHER than their sole attendance figure against Rangers (by around 20), but Dundee’s presence in the league was also more valuable to United than that of the Ibrox side in absolute terms, because the men from Tannadice finished 9th that season and as a result only got one home game against Rangers, compared to two against Dundee. It’s similar from Dundee’s side:
Dundee total home attendances vs Dundee Utd: 21,108 (two matches)
Dundee total home attendances vs Rangers: 19,280 (two matches)
Meanwhile in the capital, Hibs narrowly avoided relegation this season, and Edinburgh rivals Hearts also had a disappointing campaign, barely scraping into the top six. How did their 2011-12 crowds shape up compared to games against Rangers?
Hibs home attendance vs Hearts: 15,013 (one match)
Hibs home attendance vs Rangers: 11,380 (one match)
Hearts home attendance vs Hibs: 30,996 (two matches)
Hearts home attendance vs Rangers: 30,337 (two matches)
Where are we going with this? Well, the short version of all the above is that for at least three of the teams who’ll be playing in the 2012-13 SPL it’s actually more financially beneficial, in terms of gate receipts, to have their local rivals in the league than Rangers – a state of affairs which is under regular threat, with one or more of the four sides frequently either flirting with relegation or actually suffering it, and which would therefore be eased significantly by the absence of the Ibrox side.
(That’s over and above all the other advantages which, as we demonstrated, outweigh the losses likely to be incurred through a steep drop in TV money should Sky/ESPN pull out in the event of Rangers’ absence.)
Those three clubs, along with the other SPL members (including Celtic, who will soon be fighting for just one Scottish place in the vastly-lucrative Champions League, participation in which is worth several seasons of league TV revenue annually) are currently pondering whether to allow any prospective newco Rangers direct admittance to the league, at Dundee’s expense.
Such a move requires an 8-4 majority vote in favour, so five clubs voting against Rangers would see their application rejected. We’ve just identified four who have a tangible financial interest in keeping Rangers out. We just thought we’d mention it.
I’ve always thought that this Rangers saga was more political than anything else. A nice little problem to throw into the mix in the run up to a referendum. The HMRC have sat on this for decades but suddenly jump in now creating a rift between catholic and protestant. Unionist Union Jack waving , land of hope and glory singing, Rangers and Republican Celtic.I know that many supporters aren’t so jingoistic but that’s the portrayal that the media love and which will be highlighted to create division. Plus it has captured the headlines and diverted media attention away from the bigger debate of a referendum in Scotland.
BBC Scotland’s long running campaign against Rangers and Ally McCoist hardly needs repeating on a forum such as this. It’s all there on youtube and Newsnet Scotland etc ‘Off the Ball’ on Saturday loves to satire Ally McCoist as he fights for his club and his job. Imagine the furore if it was Jim Traynor being slagged off as he fought for his job.
Stephen Thomson, Chairman of Dundee United, has gone over the figures and says Utd will lose out by a sizeable amount if Rangers leave the SPL due to tv rights etc. He pays the bills so will know more than us.
The SPL has failed from day 1. No framework for sorting out these administration problems despite being repeated continuously. A league without play offs and no chance of winning unless you’re Celtic or Rangers has made the thing irrelevant to the ‘other 10’.
I gave up with it but may get a season ticket again if Rangers and Celtic leave.
The Glory Years can come back to Dundee United. But only if we lose Celtic and Rangers. They either buy up the best players and never use them or sell them on ( Willo Flood, Barry Robson to Celtic). Or use weird offshore tax payments to get an unfair advantage over us with player payments ( rangers)
Good luck to Motherwell in the Champions League !
“Stephen Thomson, Chairman of Dundee United, has gone over the figures and says Utd will lose out by a sizeable amount if Rangers leave the SPL due to tv rights etc. He pays the bills so will know more than us.”
As we noted in an earlier piece, any such faith in SPL club chairmen seems to be rather undermined by the suicidal lack of acumen they displayed in signing up to the SPL in the first place…
http://wingsland.podgamer.com/turkeys-urge-continuation-of-christmas/
I’m not sure that Rangers fans will be warming to a union that seems to be hell bent on destroying them, at the moment the ire seems to be swinging from one person or group to another, if the chop comes from HMRC, regardless of rights and wrongs of the case then they will take some blame from some Rangers fans.
So I really can’t see this clouding the independence question, since we’re still over 2 years away.
Perhaps the best thing that could but won’t happen is for Rangers to drop down to SFL division 3. Why? Well in my niave and contorted way of thinking this move would certainly be a BOOST to the gate receipts of ALL the teams in SFL3 whenever they played Rangers. After all just because Rangers drops to SFL3 their support will not disappear. If it does then those who disappear are NOT as LOYAL to Rangers as they make out! This in itself can NOT be a bad thing to happen. Similarly in SFL2 and SFL1 in the succeeding seasons as Rangers worked their way back up to the SPL. What everyone in the SPL and the media seems to forget is that Scottish football exists in a wider arena than just the SPL. Consequently, all the teams OUTSIDE the SPL who play week in, week out just like the SPL clubs get little or no recognition, from any one!
Dropping Rangers to Division 3 would as well as the financial bonuses for the SFL3 teams also bring with it recognition of all these clubs. I have no doubt that Rangers in SFL1,2 or 3 would bring with it the T.V.cameras and media to a lot of grounds that have never experienced a T.V. or media set up before.
What all those mentioned before fail to recognise is that the all the clubs in the “lower” divisions are ALL struggling financially! They, just like the SPL clubs NEED a steady income. Unfortunately the lower down the divisions you go the smaller the support, no doubt in part as a direct result of the existence of the “Big Two”.
I have no doubt that Rangers have treated in the most shambolic fashion in the past year or so if not in decades. However, we can not change the past and we are unfortunately where we are. Questions need to be asked, A LOT OF QUESTIONS. Those in the firing line in my view are:
Past Owners
H.M.R.C.
Duff and Phelps
The Media
Television
S.P.L.
S.F.A.
Football fans (They are the heart and soul of any club and so, in my view, a selection of fans MUST be invited to have their say on the situation. They are NOT the cause but they may hold part of the answer!)
I am NOT someone who is overly keen on inquests or inquiries but in this instance, considering the absolute and total embarrassment this whole Rangers fiasco has caused I believe an inquiry MUST be held. Answers MUST be found and action taken to ensure nothing so embarrassing EVER happens within the realms of Scottish football EVER again!
RANT OVER! 😀
Yes, as we noted previously Rangers dropping to SFL3 is the best possible outcome for all concerned.
1. Rangers get to retain some semblance of honour while Scottish football holds onto its integrity as they’re seen to pay for their crimes. Many Rangers fans back such a move for those very reasons.
2. The other SPL clubs benefit for the reasons extensively detailed in our first piece on the subject. (And even if it turns out that we’re wrong, they can look forward to Rangers’ return within a few seasons, into an SPL in which the other clubs have in the meantime rebalanced the cash payouts somewhat in their own favour while the Old Firm don’t have a veto.)
3. The SFL clubs benefit from Rangers passing through (and perhaps not quite as quickly as everyone assumes), bringing about a substantial and much-needed redistribution of wealth throughout the entire Scottish game.
4. This in turn could benefit Rangers and the national team too, as stronger clubs produce more and better young players who can then move up through the ranks.
The alternative is hugely short-sighted and hideously destructive, and it beggars belief that anyone could possibly think it a good idea.
I fear that, despite all the clear thinking on this and other sites discussing the Rangers predicament we are going to end up with Rangers remaining in the SPL. As you discussed in a previous piece, my greatest fear is that the “rest of the SPL” will “agree” to allow Rangers back into the SPL as a newco. Now, in my view, this is probably the MOST damaging of all possible outcomes.
I suspect, without any proof you understand, that even fans of Rangers would accept that dropping to SFL3 is the best and most appropriate action. This whole delay after delay after delay scenario is wholly down, in my view, to the SPL chairmen wanting MAXIMUM cash receipts. They don’t care about the fans, other divisional clubs or the reputation of Scottish football. All they are interested in is “what’s in it for them!”
I think the time has well past where the SPL,SFL: etc all include the “one vote for one club” approach. I suspect the lower divisions already do this but I understand that for some obscure reason Rangers and Celtic get more than one vote each. I reckon the chairmen must have all been p***** when they agreed to that one. 😀
I would also dare to suggest that perhaps the time has come to have supporter representation on the “boards” of the SPL,SFL etc. After all without the supporters where would the leagues be….. DEAD! Supporters would in my opinion bring a piece of reality to any league proceedings.
Arbroath..
Celtic and Rangers get a single vote like the rest of the SPL Chairmen but the problem is that a single vote can veto any new agreement or plan.
The catch 22 is that any attempt to switch to a majority voting system would be vetoed by the single vote of Celtic or Rangers.
It’s not a single vote, it’s two votes. But there are two teams in the Old Firm, hence the unfairness. Together, the ugly sisters rule the SPL.
Do they honestly fear that sports fans and long term followers of football will simply pack it all in over night and take up whittling or something instead because of Rangers not playing in the SPL?
I would take up whittling or some such if Rangers are in the SPL next season. The dead wood analogy is pretty good