And it was (nearly) all yellow
There’s a new poll on Holyrood voting intentions out today – a proper Ipsos/MORI one with a valid sample size, not some of the useless micro-polls the press have been getting in a lather about lately – and the results are dramatic.
While the SNP have actually dropped very slightly – down 2 points to 49% – they’ve still extended their lead over Labour, who fall 6 points to an all-time low of 23%. It’s the first time the SNP have ever polled over twice Labour’s figures, and the Nats continue to find favour with more voters than the three main opposition parties combined (at 49% to a total of 46% for the others).
When translated to a predicted outcome via www.scotlandvotes.com, the spectacular findings are that Labour are reduced to ONE – yes, one – constituency seat (from 15 now), that of Elaine Murray in the Borders constituency of Dumfriesshire. With the exception of the Tories taking back Eastwood from failed Labour leadership candidate Ken McIntosh and holding onto one other Borders seat (Roxburgh & Berwickshire), the rest of the entire Scottish mainland goes canary yellow, with the SNP securing 73 seats overall to increase their Parliamentary majority to 17. It’s quite a picture, no?
Stay positive, Unionists!
Great news. Can't wait to see that map shed some more red and blue. It's long overdue after generations of trust being squandered by them. I'd be happy to see a couple more greens pop up too, so hopefully they do better than expected.
I'm surprised Dave was even able to muster a a net satisfaction rating of -28%. What poor, deluded souls thought he was doing a good job? It seems that a party leader could juggle babies over a firepit while trampling on a pensioner and you'd still get hardcore party loyalists voting for them and supporting them in polls. Milliband's comments about the strikes would have been enough to get him tossed out otherwise. It seems more about supporting the party or brand loyalty than rational thought on what is best for the country.
The thing I find astonishing about the SV prediction is that the Tories win MORE constituency seats than Labour.
That would be quite a turn up for the books. It'd be a heavy blow and a new low for Labour. Then again Labour have gone all out on reaching new lows in recent years so a backlash would seem reasonable. Labour are famously (although curiously under reported in the Scottish media, including the BBC) corrupt in the Glasgow area where councils, contracts and business is concerned. I've had my ear bent by many a business owner and worker about dealing with them. They've long been overdue for abandonment. They've cynically used the Scots for generations, assuming an eternal supporter base there, despite Labour's shift in policies away from anything that gained that original support. I wouldn't trust them with a cabbage but the Tories are still more consistent and ideologically honest than these numpties. You're right about Labour's disonesty of positioning themselves as ideological opposites of the Tories, despite being far closer to them than they'd admit. As the days go by it seems you'd struggle to get a piece of card between them.
I still wonder why in a country so harshly treated by Tories and where there is so much hatred of them there are still dedicated Tory voters and regular seats for them. I see in the breakdown there that the Tories get the least support from those working full time and the most from pensioners. Oddly they get their second largest support from those listed as "not working" (seperate from retired too). Really? Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.
I know some personally (around the age of war time survivors) and I've yet to hear good reasons from them for supporting the party other than they always do, year after year, no matter what is said or done. They mostly read the Daily Mail, Telegraph and believe every word written as if it was God's own written holy truth to them. The old media still have too much power on politics and they are clinging to it. Granted there are always some of the cronies, landed gentry and those involved with the Tory backscratching that always goes on, but it hardly seems enough to get that level of voter support. I'd love to see a peek into their heads to understand the majority of people who vote in such a manner. Everyone has a reason for their actions, even if it is unknown or doesn't make sense to others.
It's interesting looking at the fringe party groups too. Pleasing to see some of the less pleasant ones not getting much support. I'd hate to see that sort of nastiness creep up and take hold here too. They've had a good bashing down south and I wouldn't want them to think they can run off here to recover.
With a good political shake up that would come with independence I'd look forward to seeing a lot of the old rooted in corruption being unearthed and removed. I know of several cases of outright theft of huge sums of money at the council level over decades (on top of fiddling contracts, payments, cronyism, etc.). This was mostly done by Labour and likely in conjunction with Tories in relevant areas. I don't mean mere suspicions or internet detective stuff, but getting it from the horse's mouth, seeing the corrupt people involved and what they were doing and watching things quietly covered up as the political class involved are untouchable and don't want scandals. Things that I *know* have happened and are left strangely uninvestigated despite demands from the public. Many cases are beyond being kept quiet and are at the "open secret" level where many or most know about it but nothing is actually done about it and blocked or buried when attempted and never, ever reported in the media. I know of one case where someone went way too far and flaunted it in public like a bloody gangster or a bankrobber with his first haul living it up and spending his loot. He eventually was quietly retired early after it got too bad over the years. Not even a slap on the wrists, still gets his pension, etc. I don't think it is too much of a leap to say that if in these many cases the overwhelming attitude with certain council areas is one of corruption and mismanagement that there are many other things going on that I do not have information on. England and the rest would likely have political restructuring too, so they'd benefit from it as they no doubt face similar problems (and the growing noise down there demanding a new system for themselves too seems to confirm it). Political restructuring is desperately needed for the highest levels and the lowest.
It seems odd that according to that system SNP have to get double the same number of regional votes to get near Labour's seating numbers for that vote. Without that regional seat system and second vote Labour and Tory would be almost non existant now. Is this kind of thing a result of it being set up to "kill nationalism stone dead"? Gerrymandering at work?
I’m struck by the recovery of the Liberal Democrats.
Whilst it’s not great news for Unionist parties I can’t help thinking there may be other factors at work here than beyond the fact that these parties are Unionist.
I suggest that one of those other factors is the combination of positive air time that Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon have been having as the face of Government and the face of the very topical indepedence campaign compared to opposition parties who have all had changes in leadership in the last few months and are probably sorting out messages and strategies and personnel.